It really IS. Once we triggered A50 it meant we were in a street confrontation. And they had the knife - Article 50, absurdly biassed towards the bigger aggressor - and we were the victim, or at best the supplicant. So what do we do. Hand over the watch? Hand over the watch AND the wallet? Etc.
Then: This will be the easiest negotiation in history.
Now: we should have glassed the bastards first.
Where did it all go wrong?
The ultra-Brexiteers were idiotically optimistic from the start. As I pointed out a couple of months after the vote:
"Brexit is going to be painful, like childbirth. It just is. The Leave quacks who promised a brisk and blissful delivery don’t have enough diamorphine to dull the nerves. We might need epidurals from the Treasury. We will swear a lot, and not care. It might be rather embarrassing but again, we probably won’t care, because we’ll be concentrating on the pain. Other countries will look at us and think ‘I’m never going through that’. Immediately after Brexit, we will likely appear reduced, saggy, wrinkled."
It really IS. Once we triggered A50 it meant we were in a street confrontation. And they had the knife - Article 50, absurdly biassed towards the bigger aggressor - and we were the victim, or at best the supplicant. So what do we do. Hand over the watch? Hand over the watch AND the wallet? Etc.
Then: This will be the easiest negotiation in history.
Now: we should have glassed the bastards first.
Where did it all go wrong?
The ultra-Brexiteers were idiotically optimistic from the start. As I pointed out a couple of months after the vote:
"Brexit is going to be painful, like childbirth. It just is. The Leave quacks who promised a brisk and blissful delivery don’t have enough diamorphine to dull the nerves. We might need epidurals from the Treasury. We will swear a lot, and not care. It might be rather embarrassing but again, we probably won’t care, because we’ll be concentrating on the pain. Other countries will look at us and think ‘I’m never going through that’. Immediately after Brexit, we will likely appear reduced, saggy, wrinkled."
BoJo is completely right, of course. A Mad Hatter approach - fuck you, we're capable of anything, look I have a knife, and I will cut off my own testicles, AND your nose, HAH - would have been better than May's cautious, turgid, idiotic Red Line which is then immediately crossed approach.
The EU is mugging us. If a blade-flashing mugger is about to mug you, the best bet is to make yourself look so loony and weird and dangerous he think it ain't worth the uncertainty and risk: is he armed too? Why is he acting so strangely?
I have personally used this method, to a knife wielding mugger, and it worked. I was very high and I acted so oddly, with hints of hidden aggression, he walked away, anxiously. And quite quickly.
We should have Trumped the EU. Too late now.
Negotiating with the European Union is not like scaring a mugger.
It really IS. Once we triggered A50 it meant we were in a street confrontation. And they had the knife - Article 50, absurdly biassed towards the bigger aggressor - and we were the victim, or at best the supplicant. So what do we do. Hand over the watch? Hand over the watch AND the wallet? Etc.
As a Leaver I am unhappy with the outcome, so far - and Bozza has a point, a manlier, more punchy approach might have worked better.
Surely an experienced street-wise Britain should be able to look after itself without too much damage? The problem is that the whole thing is being led by the most incompetent and divisive government in living memory.
Why did anyone expect it to be anything different? Anyone who knows the EU made it blatantly clear that Cameron was never going to get a major renegotiation. They all said a favourable deal was unlikely. Yet the Brexit fantasists were convinced the EU would be eating out of our hands. Talk of bullying is just nonsense. The EU is happy for us to leave. They aren't trying to cajole us into staying. It's us who want to maintain privileges and they who are saying Non. Is that bullying?
Forget handbagging them - as Lord King said if you go into a negotiation without a fall back position you have no power in the negotiation. We don't have a coherent no deal plan and the EU knows it. Therefore they decide what the deal is. The tactics of the negotiation are irrelevant.
Geordie Greig has been named as new editor of the Daily Mail, and will replace Paul Dacre later this year. The 57-year-old currently edits the paper's sister title the Mail on Sunday.
Daily rant not going to be so anti-EU in the future.
Will be an almighty relief for his staff. Dacre is a piece of work who edits with a blunt pencil.
Geordie Greig has been named as new editor of the Daily Mail, and will replace Paul Dacre later this year. The 57-year-old currently edits the paper's sister title the Mail on Sunday.
Daily rant not going to be so anti-EU in the future.
Not until November though, so it will be after the event. By then it will be the Final Countdown.
Nothing to do now apart from make contingency plans. I have salted my savings away in Brexit resistant investments and am in the safest job imaginable. I can afford to be fairly sanguine.
BoJo is completely right, of course. A Mad Hatter approach - fuck you, we're capable of anything, look I have a knife, and I will cut off my own testicles, AND your nose, HAH - would have been better than May's cautious, turgid, idiotic Red Line which is then immediately crossed approach.
The EU is mugging us. If a blade-flashing mugger is about to mug you, the best bet is to make yourself look so loony and weird and dangerous he think it ain't worth the uncertainty and risk: is he armed too? Why is he acting so strangely?
I have personally used this method, to a knife wielding mugger, and it worked. I was very high and I acted so oddly, with hints of hidden aggression, he walked away, anxiously. And quite quickly.
We should have Trumped the EU. Too late now.
Negotiating with the European Union is not like scaring a mugger.
It really IS. Once we triggered A50 it meant we were in a street confrontation. And they had the knife - Article 50, absurdly biassed towards the bigger aggressor - and we were the victim, or at best the supplicant. So what do we do. Hand over the watch? Hand over the watch AND the wallet? Etc.
As a Leaver I am unhappy with the outcome, so far - and Bozza has a point, a manlier, more punchy approach might have worked better.
Surely an experienced street-wise Britain should be able to look after itself without too much damage? The problem is that the whole thing is being led by the most incompetent and divisive government in living memory.
Why did anyone expect it to be anything different? Anyone who knows the EU made it blatantly clear that Cameron was never going to get a major renegotiation. They all said a favourable deal was unlikely. Yet the Brexit fantasists were convinced the EU would be eating out of our hands. Talk of bullying is just nonsense. The EU is happy for us to leave. They aren't trying to cajole us into staying. It's us who want to maintain privileges and they who are saying Non. Is that bullying?
Forget handbagging them - as Lord King said if you go into a negotiation without a fall back position you have no power in the negotiation. We don't have a coherent no deal plan and the EU knows it. Therefore they decide what the deal is. The tactics of the negotiation are irrelevant.
what crap
the EU is seeking to force a deal we wont accept in the long term. At some point the worm will turn that's the problem with trying to overplay a hand the next hand will be your problem
It's a diverse conversation this evening but there's a common thread: Defeating muggers? - SeanT's done it. Long distance walking? - Sean's been there. Rimming? - He's an expert. Predicting Brexit? - Yes indeed!
If only there was a LIKE button.
FWIW and just for the sake of pathetic and pointless gossip, I have it on VERY good authority that one of the panelists on QT tonight, ostensibly neutral, is in fact VERY Brexit. He keeps it quiet as a TV star should, and must (most of the media is ultra-Remain)
Maders is an ultra-Blairite. I assumed that profound europhilia was part of the package.
BoJo is completely right, of course. A Mad Hatter approach - fuck you, we're capable of anything, look I have a knife, and I will cut off my own testicles, AND your nose, HAH - would have been better than May's cautious, turgid, idiotic Red Line which is then immediately crossed approach.
The EU is mugging us. If a blade-flashing mugger is about to mug you, the best bet is to make yourself look so loony and weird and dangerous he think it ain't worth the uncertainty and risk: is he armed too? Why is he acting so strangely?
I have personally used this method, to a knife wielding mugger, and it worked. I was very high and I acted so oddly, with hints of hidden aggression, he walked away, anxiously. And quite quickly.
We should have Trumped the EU. Too late now.
Negotiating with the European Union is not like scaring a mugger.
It really IS. Once we triggered A50 it meant we were in a street confrontation. And they had the knife - Article 50, absurdly biassed towards the bigger aggressor - and we were the victim, or at best the supplicant. So what do we do. Hand over the watch? Hand over the watch AND the wallet? Etc.
As a Leaver I am unhappy with the outcome, so far - and Bozza has a point, a manlier, more punchy approach might have worked better.
Surely an experienced street-wise Britain should be able to look after itself without too much damage? The problem is that the whole thing is being led by the most incompetent and divisive government in living memory.
Why did anyone expect it to be anything different? Anyone who knows the EU made it blatantly clear that Cameron was never going to get a major renegotiation. They all said a favourable deal was unlikely. Yet the Brexit fantasists were convinced the EU would be eating out of our hands. Talk of bullying is just nonsense. The EU is happy for us to leave. They aren't trying to cajole us into staying. It's us who want to maintain privileges and they who are saying Non. Is that bullying?
Forget handbagging them - as Lord King said if you go into a negotiation without a fall back position you have no power in the negotiation. We don't have a coherent no deal plan and the EU knows it. Therefore they decide what the deal is. The tactics of the negotiation are irrelevant.
The problem stems from the UK not having said No to Brussels since the mid 1980s.
Our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert diplomats' being crap but thinking they're brilliant doesn't help either.
BoJo is completely right, of course. A Mad Hatter approach - fuck you, we're capable of anything, look I have a knife, and I will cut off my own testicles, AND your nose, HAH - would have been better than May's cautious, turgid, idiotic Red Line which is then immediately crossed approach.
The EU is mugging us. If a blade-flashing mugger is about to mug you, the best bet is to make yourself look so loony and weird and dangerous he think it ain't worth the uncertainty and risk: is he armed too? Why is he acting so strangely?
I have personally used this method, to a knife wielding mugger, and it worked. I was very high and I acted so oddly, with hints of hidden aggression, he walked away, anxiously. And quite quickly.
We should have Trumped the EU. Too late now.
Negotiating with the European Union is not like scaring a mugger.
It really IS. Once we triggered A50 it meant we were in a street confrontation. And they had the knife - Article 50, absurdly biassed towards the bigger aggressor - and we were the victim, or at best the supplicant. So what do we do. Hand over the watch? Hand over the watch AND the wallet? Etc.
As a Leaver I am unhappy with the outcome, so far - and Bozza has a point, a manlier, more punchy approach might have worked better.
Surely an experienced street-wise Britain should be able to look after itself without too much damage? The problem is that the whole thing is being led by the most incompetent and divisive government in living memory.
Why did anyone expect it to be anything different? Anyone who knows the EU made it blatantly clear that Cameron was never going to get a major renegotiation. They all said a favourable deal was unlikely. Yet the Brexit fantasists were convinced the EU would be eating out of our hands. Talk of bullying is just nonsense. The EU is happy for us to leave. They aren't trying to cajole us into staying. It's us who want to maintain privileges and they who are saying Non. Is that bullying?
Forget handbagging them - as Lord King said if you go into a negotiation without a fall back position you have no power in the negotiation. We don't have a coherent no deal plan and the EU knows it. Therefore they decide what the deal is. The tactics of the negotiation are irrelevant.
The problem stems from the UK not having said No to Brussels since the mid 1980s.
Our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert diplomats' being crap but thinking they're brilliant doesn't help either.
BoJo is completely right, of course. A Mad Hatter approach - fuck you, we're capable of anything, look I have a knife, and I will cut off my own testicles, AND your nose, HAH - would have been better than May's cautious, turgid, idiotic Red Line which is then immediately crossed approach.
The EU is mugging us. If a blade-flashing mugger is about to mug you, the best bet is to make yourself look so loony and weird and dangerous he think it ain't worth the uncertainty and risk: is he armed too? Why is he acting so strangely?
I have personally used this method, to a knife wielding mugger, and it worked. I was very high and I acted so oddly, with hints of hidden aggression, he walked away, anxiously. And quite quickly.
We should have Trumped the EU. Too late now.
Negotiating with the European Union is not like scaring a mugger.
It really IS. Once we triggered A50 it meant we were in a street confrontation. And they had the knife - Article 50, absurdly biassed towards the bigger aggressor - and we were the victim, or at best the supplicant. So what do we do. Hand over the watch? Hand over the watch AND the wallet? Etc.
As a Leaver I am unhappy with the outcome, so far - and Bozza has a point, a manlier, more punchy approach might have worked better.
Forget handbagging them - as Lord King said if you go into a negotiation without a fall back position you have no power in the negotiation. We don't have a coherent no deal plan and the EU knows it. Therefore they decide what the deal is. The tactics of the negotiation are irrelevant.
This is just a lie. Cameron set out in his Bloomberg speech what he wanted from the renegotiation. If he'd got half of this I'd have dutifully voted Remain
He overpromised and very very badly under-delivered.
So we Leave.
The point is he was never going to get it. He might have made things worse by doing the whole renegotiation farce and coming back empty handed rather than just holding the referendum. He didn't seem to realise that Harold Wilson had done the same thing and many Yes voters had felt conned by it.
BoJo is completely right, of course. A Mad Hatter approach - fuck you, we're capable of anything, look I have a knife, and I will cut off my own testicles, AND your nose, HAH - would have been better than May's cautious, turgid, idiotic Red Line which is then immediately crossed approach.
We should have Trumped the EU. Too late now.
Negotiating with the European Union is not like scaring a mugger.
It really IS. Once we triggered A50 it meant we were in a street confrontation. And they had the knife - Article 50, absurdly biassed towards the bigger aggressor - and we were the victim, or at best the supplicant. So what do we do. Hand over the watch? Hand over the watch AND the wallet? Etc.
As a Leaver I am unhappy with the outcome, so far - and Bozza has a point, a manlier, more punchy approach might have worked better.
Forget handbagging them - as Lord King said if you go into a negotiation without a fall back position you have no power in the negotiation. We don't have a coherent no deal plan and the EU knows it. Therefore they decide what the deal is. The tactics of the negotiation are irrelevant.
The problem stems from the UK not having said No to Brussels since the mid 1980s.
Our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert diplomats' being crap but thinking they're brilliant doesn't help either.
The Euro? Schengen? Why do we keep thinking we can get whatever we want out of the EU if only we were strong/smart enough? Why not just accept we have limited capacity to change it and if we don't like it, leave? It wasn't a question of being unable to say no. Cameron didn't want to prevent further integration he wanted to renegotiate the status quo. Inconceivable.
It's a diverse conversation this evening but there's a common thread: Defeating muggers? - SeanT's done it. Long distance walking? - Sean's been there. Rimming? - He's an expert. Predicting Brexit? - Yes indeed!
If only there was a LIKE button.
FWIW and just for the sake of pathetic and pointless gossip, I have it on VERY good authority that one of the panelists on QT tonight, ostensibly neutral, is in fact VERY Brexit. He keeps it quiet as a TV star should, and must (most of the media is ultra-Remain)
I expect it is Madeley, although he said 'he voted Remain' he also said 'we must leave the single market and customs union to respect the Brexit vote'
It really IS. Once we triggered A50 it meant we were in a street confrontation. And they had the knife - Article 50, absurdly biassed towards the bigger aggressor - and we were the victim, or at best the supplicant. So what do we do. Hand over the watch? Hand over the watch AND the wallet? Etc.
As a Leaver I am unhappy with the outcome, so far - and Bozza has a point, a manlier, more punchy approach might have worked better.
Surely an experienced street-wise Britain should be able to look after itself without too much damage? The problem is that the whole thing is being led by the most incompetent and divisive government in living memory.
Why did anyone expect it to be anything different? Anyone who knows the EU made it blatantly clear that Cameron was never going to get a major renegotiation. They all said a favourable deal was unlikely. Yet the Brexit fantasists were convinced the EU would be eating out of our hands. Talk of bullying is just nonsense. The EU is happy for us to leave. They aren't trying to cajole us into staying. It's us who want to maintain privileges and they who are saying Non. Is that bullying?
Forget handbagging them - as Lord King said if you go into a negotiation without a fall back position you have no power in the negotiation. We don't have a coherent no deal plan and the EU knows it. Therefore they decide what the deal is. The tactics of the negotiation are irrelevant.
The problem stems from the UK not having said No to Brussels since the mid 1980s.
Our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert diplomats' being crap but thinking they're brilliant doesn't help either.
BoJo is completely right, of course. A Mad Hatter approach - fuck you, we're capable of anything, look I have a knife, and I will cut off my own testicles, AND your nose, HAH - would have been better than May's cautious, turgid, idiotic Red Line which is then immediately crossed approach.
We should have Trumped the EU. Too late now.
Negotiating with the European Union is not like scaring a mugger.
It really IS. Once we triggered A50 it meant we were in a street confrontation. And they had the knife - Article 50, absurdly biassed towards the bigger aggressor - and we were the victim, or at best the supplicant. So what do we do. Hand over the watch? Hand over the watch AND the wallet? Etc.
As a Leaver I am unhappy with the outcome, so far - and Bozza has a point, a manlier, more punchy approach might have worked better.
Forget handbagging them - as Lord King said if you go into a negotiation without a fall back position you have no power in the negotiation. We don't have a coherent no deal plan and the EU knows it. Therefore they decide what the deal is. The tactics of the negotiation are irrelevant.
The problem stems from the UK not having said No to Brussels since the mid 1980s.
Our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert diplomats' being crap but thinking they're brilliant doesn't help either.
The Euro? Schengen? Why do we keep thinking we can get whatever we want out of the EU if only we were strong/smart enough? Why not just accept we have limited capacity to change it and if we don't like it, leave? It wasn't a question of being unable to say no. Cameron didn't want to prevent further integration he wanted to renegotiate the status quo. Inconceivable.
no he didn't want to renegotiate and that was the problem
I don't have a problem with Brexiters per se. I don't even have that much of a problem with anti-Europeans. What I find incredibly irritating is those people who support leaving but somehow think the EU owes it to us to give us a generous deal. You wanted to Leave FFS! You don't get the benefits without the obligations. I assumed the Brexiters had factored that in?
BoJo is completely right, of course. A Mad Hatter approach - fuck you, we're capable of anything, look I have a knife, and I will cut off my own testicles, AND your nose, HAH - would have been better than May's cautious, turgid, idiotic Red Line which is then immediately crossed approach.
We should have Trumped the EU. Too late now.
Negotiating with the European Union is not like scaring a mugger.
It really IS. Once we triggered A50 it meant we were in a street confrontation. And they had the knife - Article 50, absurdly biassed towards the bigger aggressor - and we were the victim, or at best the supplicant. So what do we do. Hand over the watch? Hand over the watch AND the wallet? Etc.
As a Leaver I am unhappy with the outcome, so far - and Bozza has a point, a manlier, more punchy approach might have worked better.
Forget handbagging them - as Lord King said if you go into a negotiation without a fall back position you have no power in the negotiation. We don't have a coherent no deal plan and the EU knows it. Therefore they decide what the deal is. The tactics of the negotiation are irrelevant.
The problem stems from the UK not having said No to Brussels since the mid 1980s.
Our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert diplomats' being crap but thinking they're brilliant doesn't help either.
The Euro? Schengen? Why do we keep thinking we can get whatever we want out of the EU if only we were strong/smart enough? Why not just accept we have limited capacity to change it and if we don't like it, leave? It wasn't a question of being unable to say no. Cameron didn't want to prevent further integration he wanted to renegotiate the status quo. Inconceivable.
Perhaps we wouldn't have reached the current status quo if we had said No previously.
Instead it was always we must say Yes to ensure more influence next time.
How many times over the years did we read "Germany is going to need an ally in the EU" or "France is going to need an ally in the EU" ?
Sure France or Germany wanted an ally when it was for the benefit of France or Germany but that was all.
Negotiating with the European Union is not like scaring a mugger.
As a Leaver I am unhappy with the outcome, so far - and Bozza has a point, a manlier, more punchy approach might have worked better.
Forget handbagging them - as Lord King said if you go into a negotiation without a fall back position you have no power in the negotiation. We don't have a coherent no deal plan and the EU knows it. Therefore they decide what the deal is. The tactics of the negotiation are irrelevant.
This is just a lie. Cameron set out in his Bloomberg speech what he wanted from the renegotiation. If he'd got half of this I'd have dutifully voted Remain
He overpromised and very very badly under-delivered.
So we Leave.
The point is he was never going to get it. He might have made things worse by doing the whole renegotiation farce and coming back empty handed rather than just holding the referendum. He didn't seem to realise that Harold Wilson had done the same thing and many Yes voters had felt conned by it.
I agree! Cameron's problem was that the renegotiation was a deliberate charade, and he knew it - he engineered it - and he promised things he could never deliver, thinking that the voters wouldn't care, in the end.
He admitted this to ministers and MPs, it was the reason Carswell resigned the Tory whip.
Personally, I was duped. I believed a Tory PM could not be that wanky and mendacious, and Cameron was sincere. Turns out Carswell was right, and I was duped (again) by my prime minister (cf Tony Blair and Iraq)
I now detest them all and I see Brexit as a way of terrifying and ejecting our entire, rotten, lying political elite. So: yay Brexit.
Cameron is a PR man and like a lot of PR men he thinks the public are stupid.
BoJo is completely right, of course. A Mad Hatter approach - fuck you, we're capable of anything, look I have a knife, and I will cut off my own testicles, AND your nose, HAH - would have been better than May's cautious, turgid, idiotic Red Line which is then immediately crossed approach.
We should have Trumped the EU. Too late now.
Negotiating with the European Union is not like scaring a mugger.
It really IS. Once we triggered A50 it meant we were in a street confrontation. And they had the knife - Article 50, absurdly biassed towards the bigger aggressor - and we were the victim, or at best the supplicant. So what do we do. Hand over the watch? Hand over the watch AND the wallet? Etc.
As a Leaver I am unhappy with the outcome, so far - and Bozza has a point, a manlier, more punchy approach might have worked better.
Forget handbagging them - as Lord King said if you go into a negotiation without a fall back position you have no power in the negotiation. We don't have a coherent no deal plan and the EU knows it. Therefore they decide what the deal is. The tactics of the negotiation are irrelevant.
The problem stems from the UK not having said No to Brussels since the mid 1980s.
Our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert diplomats' being crap but thinking they're brilliant doesn't help either.
The Euro? Schengen? Why do we keep thinking we can get whatever we want out of the EU if only we were strong/smart enough? Why not just accept we have limited capacity to change it and if we don't like it, leave? It wasn't a question of being unable to say no. Cameron didn't want to prevent further integration he wanted to renegotiate the status quo. Inconceivable.
Perhaps we wouldn't have reached the current status quo if we had said No previously.
Instead it was always we must say Yes to ensure more influence next time.
How many times over the years did we read "Germany is going to need an ally in the EU" or "France is going to need an ally in the EU" ?
Sure France or Germany wanted an ally when it was for the benefit of France or Germany but that was all.
The problem for Cameron was that he had given up trying to repatriate powers and just wanted to enshrine the status quo... And the EU then made clear that wasn't acceptable.
All three by-elections tonight just had Con, Lab, and Lib Dem candidates. In all three the Con and Lab votes were down but the Lib Dem votes were up by 11.8%, 27.1% and 32.5%. Just saying.
All three by-elections tonight just had Con, Lab, and Lib Dem candidates. In all three the Con and Lab votes were down but the Lib Dem votes were up by 11.8%, 27.1% and 32.5%. Just saying.
It's a diverse conversation this evening but there's a common thread: Defeating muggers? - SeanT's done it. Long distance walking? - Sean's been there. Rimming? - He's an expert. Predicting Brexit? - Yes indeed!
All three by-elections tonight just had Con, Lab, and Lib Dem candidates. In all three the Con and Lab votes were down but the Lib Dem votes were up by 11.8%, 27.1% and 32.5%. Just saying.
Just saying what?
That the Lib Dems are getting back some of their local government strength and consistently winning by-elections. I expect further good results next week.
SNP down 5% on last Holyrood elections, Tories up 5%, Labour unchanged.
SNP and Greens combined on 63 MSPs, 2 short of the 65 needed for a majority and down 6 on the 69 the SNP and Greens have combined now which gives a pro independence majority of 4 which on this poll turns into a unionist majority of 1 for the Tories+Labour+LDs which would effectively kill off indyref2 for a generation.
All three by-elections tonight just had Con, Lab, and Lib Dem candidates. In all three the Con and Lab votes were down but the Lib Dem votes were up by 11.8%, 27.1% and 32.5%. Just saying.
Just saying what?
That the Lib Dems are getting back some of their local government strength and consistently winning by-elections. I expect further good results next week.
Yes, I can see a way back for the Lib Dems. Eventually folk memory will contrast nice Messrs Cameron and Clegg in the rose garden against strange, bewildered Theresa and Rees-Mogg owning the political landscape and will conclude that the former weren't such bad times.
SNP down 5% on last Holyrood elections, Tories up 5%, Labour unchanged.
SNP and Greens combined on 63 MSPs, 2 short of the 65 needed for a majority and down 6 on the 69 the SNP and Greens have combined now which gives a pro independence majority of 4 which on this poll turns into a unionist majority of 1 for the Tories+Labour+LDs which would effectively kill off indyref2 for a generation.
How do you conclude that a scenario in which the SNP has a large plurality but the unionists taken together have the smallest possible majority would kill off Indyref2 for a generation? Who would form the Scottish government in that scenario? A Con-Lab-LD coalition or other arrangement would be great for the SNP, fuelled as that party is among the less educated majority by the view that all the unionist parties are "branch offices" of English parties. A Con-led one would be even better for the SNP, which portrays the Conservative party as the most typically English machine and would say that Lab and LDs were showing their colours by supporting it. An SNP-Green minority government, defeatable only if all the unionists vote together?
A typically bizarre analysis by the increasingly outlandish Kuenssberg.
The wording on the date is as watertight as a pair of fishnet stockings.
Good night.
The wording in the EU policy statement is indeed a joke. But the wording in May's letter to MPs is completely different. I am assuming (no evidence) that DD extracted the letter as well as part of his agreement. May's letter seems unambiguous that she is promising MPs that the UK will have the unilateral right to terminate the backstop - which means that it is time limited. She also says that she will not agree a withdrawal agreement unless it is linked to an agreed outcome on customs.
As a Leaver I have no problems with what is in May's letter to MPs, but it is in total conflict with the document she has sent the EU. It also seems to be in conflict with reality - the EU have made is clear they have no intention of agreeing to a time limit nor will they agree a customs end state as part of the withdrawal agreement.
So I assume May is either insane, lying through her teeth or more likely just telling everyone what they want to hear, despite the fact that these things are contradictory, just so she can hang on a bit longer.
BoJo is completely right, of course. A Mad Hatter approach - fuck you, we're capable of anything, look I have a knife, and I will cut off my own testicles, AND your nose, HAH - would have been better than May's cautious, turgid, idiotic Red Line which is then immediately crossed approach.
The EU is mugging us. If a blade-flashing mugger is about to mug you, the best bet is to make yourself look so loony and weird and dangerous he think it ain't worth the uncertainty and risk: is he armed too? Why is he acting so strangely?
I have personally used this method, to a knife wielding mugger, and it worked. I was very high and I acted so oddly, with hints of hidden aggression, he walked away, anxiously. And quite quickly.
We should have Trumped the EU. Too late now.
A friend of mine was kidnapped by a fake taxi driver at a Nigerian airport once. He had got a name from the ground crew and had a fake taxi greeting board. When my friend realised that was kidnapped, he started to sing "Onward Christian Soldiers" at full volume. Then repeated it, again and again. After 3 hours of this he was dumped out and found his way back to the airport, and carried on with his trip. His tactic worked, but in Jo'burg he would have probably been dumped out dead. That sort of crazy needs doing carefully.
Indeed. It is risky, and can go wrong. But if the alternative is a CERTAIN mugging or a DEFINITE kidnapping then it is worth the risk.
And so long as the mugger isn't unhinged, carrying not "Uncle Stanley" but a zombie knife, and more likely to kill you if he thinks you're a fellow crazy.
Off-topic: NASA say they found organic molecules on Mars.
Everything else in our solar system has been replicated in other solar systems we have discovered and examined. I expect life to be no exception.
As to whether it's intelligent? On other solar systems maybe......
One of the fascinating aspects of the search for life is the way we so often think we are exceptional. Two decades ago, I remember reading in serious journals about issues realting to the Drake equation. They went like: "It is possible that our solar system is the only one with planets," a few years before we discovered the first exoplanet. Then it became: "It is possible that other solar systems only have gas giants," etc, etc.
The thinking is that we, and our situation, is exceptional. Yet every time such barriers are probed, we find that we are not exceptional.
This makes me think that life is common, and intelligent life probable.
In which case the Fermi Paradox becomes a vital question.
Indeed. Wikipedia offers 22 possible explanations for the Fermi paradox, including the utterly wacko simulation hypothesis - isn't Oxford supposed to be a serious university? - and the planetarium hypothesis. But it's not really a paradox: it's an absence of undisputed direct evidence for extraterrestrial life.
I don't agree with Erich von Däniken's ancient astronaut hypothesis, but the Antikythera mechanism is thought-provoking and there are other indications too that some ancient societies were advanced a long way beyond the point that archaeologists like to believe possible.
SNP down 5% on last Holyrood elections, Tories up 5%, Labour unchanged.
SNP and Greens combined on 63 MSPs, 2 short of the 65 needed for a majority and down 6 on the 69 the SNP and Greens have combined now which gives a pro independence majority of 4 which on this poll turns into a unionist majority of 1 for the Tories+Labour+LDs which would effectively kill off indyref2 for a generation.
How do you conclude that a scenario in which the SNP has a large plurality but the unionists taken together have the smallest possible majority would kill off Indyref2 for a generation? Who would form the Scottish government in that scenario? A Con-Lab-LD coalition or other arrangement would be great for the SNP, fuelled as that party is among the less educated majority by the view that all the unionist parties are "branch offices" of English parties. A Con-led one would be even better for the SNP, which portrays the Conservative party as the most typically English machine and would say that Lab and LDs were showing their colours by supporting it. An SNP-Green minority government, defeatable only if all the unionists vote together?
If the SNP and Greens lose their majority even if Sturgeon stays First Minister indyref2 is dead, as was the case in 2007 when the SNP formed a minority government but did not have a majority for an independence referendum
One can see why. After all, what is franchising for?
That question has been answered on here before, many times.
*) How does renationalisation improve the railways? *) What happens to ROSCOs? *) What happens to Open Access? *) What about the freight operators? *) Why do you think renationalisation work, when the part that has failed is the nationalised Network Rail? *) How do you ensure consistent funding for the railways under renationanlisation? *) What will the structure be like? *) How much day-to-day involvement will the DfT have in the running?
These, and many more, questions need to be answered about renationationalisation.
SNP down 5% on last Holyrood elections, Tories up 5%, Labour unchanged.
SNP and Greens combined on 63 MSPs, 2 short of the 65 needed for a majority and down 6 on the 69 the SNP and Greens have combined now which gives a pro independence majority of 4 which on this poll turns into a unionist majority of 1 for the Tories+Labour+LDs which would effectively kill off indyref2 for a generation.
So all the talk a few weeks ago able the Labour revival and Tory meltdown north of the border seem to have been somewhat premature as some of us suggested .
Comments
Why did anyone expect it to be anything different? Anyone who knows the EU made it blatantly clear that Cameron was never going to get a major renegotiation. They all said a favourable deal was unlikely. Yet the Brexit fantasists were convinced the EU would be eating out of our hands. Talk of bullying is just nonsense. The EU is happy for us to leave. They aren't trying to cajole us into staying. It's us who want to maintain privileges and they who are saying Non. Is that bullying?
Forget handbagging them - as Lord King said if you go into a negotiation without a fall back position you have no power in the negotiation. We don't have a coherent no deal plan and the EU knows it. Therefore they decide what the deal is. The tactics of the negotiation are irrelevant.
Nothing to do now apart from make contingency plans. I have salted my savings away in Brexit resistant investments and am in the safest job imaginable. I can afford to be fairly sanguine.
the EU is seeking to force a deal we wont accept in the long term. At some point the worm will turn that's the problem with trying to overplay a hand the next hand will be your problem
Our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert diplomats' being crap but thinking they're brilliant doesn't help either.
ROFLMAO
Angie says all those east europeans should STFU and just bail her out of her self inflicted domestic immigration problem
apparently countries poorer than Germany should show solidarity and pay for a problem Germany alone caused
https://www.welt.de/politik/article177166374/Aufnahme-von-Fluechtlingen-Merkel-kritisiert-mangelnde-Solidaritaet-der-Osteuropaeer-in-Asylfragen.html
Instead it was always we must say Yes to ensure more influence next time.
How many times over the years did we read "Germany is going to need an ally in the EU" or "France is going to need an ally in the EU" ?
Sure France or Germany wanted an ally when it was for the benefit of France or Germany but that was all.
It’s like catnip to the British public.
One can see why. After all, what is franchising for?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44398130
The wording on the date is as watertight as a pair of fishnet stockings.
Good night.
Tories Out!!!!!
SNP and Greens combined on 63 MSPs, 2 short of the 65 needed for a majority and down 6 on the 69 the SNP and Greens have combined now which gives a pro independence majority of 4 which on this poll turns into a unionist majority of 1 for the Tories+Labour+LDs which would effectively kill off indyref2 for a generation.
As a Leaver I have no problems with what is in May's letter to MPs, but it is in total conflict with the document she has sent the EU. It also seems to be in conflict with reality - the EU have made is clear they have no intention of agreeing to a time limit nor will they agree a customs end state as part of the withdrawal agreement.
So I assume May is either insane, lying through her teeth or more likely just telling everyone what they want to hear, despite the fact that these things are contradictory, just so she can hang on a bit longer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SY14V2CgDNI
I don't agree with Erich von Däniken's ancient astronaut hypothesis, but the Antikythera mechanism is thought-provoking and there are other indications too that some ancient societies were advanced a long way beyond the point that archaeologists like to believe possible.
*) How does renationalisation improve the railways?
*) What happens to ROSCOs?
*) What happens to Open Access?
*) What about the freight operators?
*) Why do you think renationalisation work, when the part that has failed is the nationalised Network Rail?
*) How do you ensure consistent funding for the railways under renationanlisation?
*) What will the structure be like?
*) How much day-to-day involvement will the DfT have in the running?
These, and many more, questions need to be answered about renationationalisation.