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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » General Election 2017 : One year on

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited June 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » General Election 2017 : One year on

At 10.00pm this evening, a year ago, the Prime Minister’s gamble backfired. Whether this was due to the polls being misleading from the start (indicating a Con lead of 25% at the start of the campaign), the so called “youthquake” (identified by the Britsh Election Study) or reasons best summed up by Brenda from Bristol of “Oh, no, not another one!” we simply cannot tell, but we do know this. The Conservative overall majority was lost and if it had not been for saving grace of twelve Conservatives gains in Scotland (all from the SNP), the Prime Minister would not have been able to govern with the DUP and the whole history of the UK from that moment could have changed.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,392
    FPT:
    Scott_P said:

    But our govt keep asking for all the member benefits of the single market without being a member.

    I am starting to think the EU is being reasonable and we have a bunch of idiots in No 10 advising May.

    That would be fine if the EU wasn't insisting on Northern Ireland remaining part of the customs union.
    Forget Corbyn, the Moggites and even the Soubry/Clarke faction for a moment - the EU's position on the UK is now completely contradictory so far as I can tell.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,580
    (Shudder). I'd rather not be reminded, thank you.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,956

    (Shudder). I'd rather not be reminded, thank you.

    It was a very profitable evening. Here's hoping for another one soon.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,392
    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,580
    tlg86 said:

    (Shudder). I'd rather not be reminded, thank you.

    It was a very profitable evening. Here's hoping for another one soon.
    It was quite profitable for me too, but all the same...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,580
    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363
    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    Most likely, none.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,275
    From a parallel dimension:
    Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.

    I would add that UKIP (and, perhaps likelier, a new I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP Party) could suddenly do very well, depending how the EU nonsense goes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,392
    edited June 8

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
    One might view this as overcautious but I can see enough water between the EU and the Gov'ts position now to take my stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet, and I have done so (leaving the profit on Out)..
    I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'.
    That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,911
    edited June 8
    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    They want us to change our minds and Remain, or at least shunt us into the EEA.

    And I think they will get what they want. They have war-gamed it and concluded that TMay can be forced into this, as the terror of a Corbyn government is so great.

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 2,805
    FPT:

    How would you fund the NHS? IFS tool.

    https://explore.ifs.org.uk/tools/nhs_funding/tool

    Inb4 people say "less managers, cut the waste" we are not talking about cutting corners type money here, we're talking massively ageing population and thousands upon thousands of people needing expensive long term chronic care in their twilight years.

    This report also makes for some scary reading.

    http://progressive-policy.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Report_Diagnosis-Critical-1.pdf

    "Today there are 0.5 million more aged over 75 than there were in 2010, and there will be 2 million more in ten years' time"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,392
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    Most likely, none.
    No, they are insisiting upon quite a deep relationship with Northern Ireland.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 816
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why not? It is the whole of the UK which is leaving after all.
    I have been trying to get this through the thick heads of Remainers for weeks. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS SOFT BREXIT.

    The EU will not allow the UK to stay in the CU for the backstop (or anything else) because CU=SM=FOM. Get yourselves a T-shirt with the formula so you can remember it.

    The ONLY two outcomes the EU will accept are:

    1. NI in the CU and SM and the rest of the UK with an FTA - this is impossible not just because of the DUP, but because it is almost an Act of War to try and divide the UK in this way. Even with the spineless traitors we have in Parliament there is no majority for this.
    2. UK in EEA-Plus, combining the EEA and the CU - this is ridiculous as it does not respect the result of the referendum - it involves full FOM, ECJ, ongoing contributions and no trade policy - eg everything we voted to Leave.

    It didn't need to be like this. A tough negotiating position early on, a walkout and prep for no deal would have likely delivered a different outcome. But Barnier is now out of control and is so puffed up with his success humiliating the UK negotiators that there is no way to get him back to a sensible deal now. Thanks Remainers for this. You undermined our negotiations every step of the way.

    So, either Traitor May sells out the UK in one of the greatest acts of failure since Chamberlain, or no deal.

    But Soft Brexit simply does not exist.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,094
    fpt
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Scott_P said:
    Putting those two together, Barnier seems to be saying there's no solution to the problem. Of course he's right, if you start from the demented premise that it is a universal law of nature that the absence of regulatory alignment forces the EU and Ireland to put up a hard border. On the other hand, if you don't start from that premise, then the whole debate is a waste of time, and the whole EU position is a logical nonsense.

    In plain English, the EU's position is bonkers. It's also completely back to front, given that as we've said many times, it would make far more sense to start with the long-term relationship and then consider the implications for the border.

    So what does the EU actually want? If all options are impossible, there will be no deal,. If there's no deal, there's no backstop and no payments to the EU budget and, by their own logic, and inevitable hard border, which is also completely unacceptable to them.
    I do not pretend to know or understand what is going on.

    But it feels to me as if the chances of a “no deal” departure have increased in the last few weeks.
    There can't be a no deal departure. Ceteris Paribus, a no deal departure would mean a hard border in NI, put up by the EU because the UK would then be a Third Country. But as @Richard_Nabavi has pointed out, that is crazy because the EU is committed to no hard border so can't then decree that there has to be a hard border. Which leaves two alternatives:

    1. The UK remains in the CU/SM in order to align the two regions (EU/UK) and avoid a border either on the Buncrana Road or in the Irish Sea. But has the EU just said that this is not possible?

    2. There is a wholly electronic, registration system of a "border" of the like that exists nowhere else either with the EU (eg. Switzerland, etc), or, say, the US/Canada.

    Or, there is 3. As @SeanT has said, they think that the mere thought of them pushing for a hard border (eg. no deal), despite the fact that they don't want one because an EU Member State (RoI) is set against it, will force the UK to backtrack completely and sign up wholly on the EU's terms to whatever flavour of agreement they put forward.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 29,120
    God was that nightmare evening a year ago already...wasn't Jezza supposed to be PM by Christmas?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,392
    tlg86 said:

    (Shudder). I'd rather not be reminded, thank you.

    It was a very profitable evening. Here's hoping for another one soon.
    I've never felt so ill in my life winning ~ 3 grand.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,094

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why not? It is the whole of the UK which is leaving after all.
    I have been trying to get this through the thick heads of Remainers for weeks. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS SOFT BREXIT.

    The EU will not allow the UK to stay in the CU for the backstop (or anything else) because CU=SM=FOM. Get yourselves a T-shirt with the formula so you can remember it.

    The ONLY two outcomes the EU will accept are:

    1. NI in the CU and SM and the rest of the UK with an FTA - this is impossible not just because of the DUP, but because it is almost an Act of War to try and divide the UK in this way. Even with the spineless traitors we have in Parliament there is no majority for this.
    2. UK in EEA-Plus, combining the EEA and the CU - this is ridiculous as it does not respect the result of the referendum - it involves full FOM, ECJ, ongoing contributions and no trade policy - eg everything we voted to Leave.

    It didn't need to be like this. A tough negotiating position early on, a walkout and prep for no deal would have likely delivered a different outcome. But Barnier is now out of control and is so puffed up with his success humiliating the UK negotiators that there is no way to get him back to a sensible deal now. Thanks Remainers for this. You undermined our negotiations every step of the way.

    So, either Traitor May sells out the UK in one of the greatest acts of failure since Chamberlain, or no deal.

    But Soft Brexit simply does not exist.
    You are making the error when you say "does not respect the result of the referendum". Norway isn't in the EU and has those things (ok via the EFTA court, but the ECJ opines on matters relating to EU law that Norway has agreed to follow).
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,911
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
    One might view this as overcautious but I can see enough water between the EU and the Gov'ts position now to take my stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet, and I have done so (leaving the profit on Out)..
    I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'.
    That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
    TMay can't accept the EU's Irish Sea Border. The EU won't offer anything else.

    We have finally reached impasse. This is it.

    She now has to go to her MPs and say: the UK must accept something like EEA status, for the moment, it's my only option. Your call.

    They can either vote her down and collapse the government, risking the calamity of a Corbyn win (which itself means Soft Brexit, or even Remain), or another weak Tory-led Coalition which will face precisely the same Irish dilemma (only with less time to get real). Or they could just replace her with another leader but he'd ALSO face the same dilemma.

    Or they can reluctantly agree to EEA.

    We fucked Brexit. Dominic Cummings is right.

    TMay should never have set her red lines, hemming herself in, and she should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,956
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    (Shudder). I'd rather not be reminded, thank you.

    It was a very profitable evening. Here's hoping for another one soon.
    I've never felt so ill in my life winning ~ 3 grand.
    I changed my mind about the election on 21 May. I actually felt really bad as I started betting on Labour, accepting that many of my original bets were losers (Ashfield nearly came in, mind). But I'm glad I did.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,802

    Whiny rant SNIPPED

    You won! Suck it up !!!

    This steaming shitshow is down to everyone that voted for it.

    However hard you wish you could blame those who said don't do it, it will be shit, it doesn't wash.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 816
    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why not? It is the whole of the UK which is leaving after all.
    I have been trying to get this through the thick heads of Remainers for weeks. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS SOFT BREXIT.

    The EU will not allow the UK to stay in the CU for the backstop (or anything else) because CU=SM=FOM. Get yourselves a T-shirt with the formula so you can remember it.

    The ONLY two outcomes the EU will accept are:

    1. NI in the CU and SM and the rest of the UK with an FTA - this is impossible not just because of the DUP, but because it is almost an Act of War to try and divide the UK in this way. Even with the spineless traitors we have in Parliament there is no majority for this.
    2. UK in EEA-Plus, combining the EEA and the CU - this is ridiculous as it does not respect the result of the referendum - it involves full FOM, ECJ, ongoing contributions and no trade policy - eg everything we voted to Leave.

    It didn't need to be like this. A tough negotiating position early on, a walkout and prep for no deal would have likely delivered a different outcome. But Barnier is now out of control and is so puffed up with his success humiliating the UK negotiators that there is no way to get him back to a sensible deal now. Thanks Remainers for this. You undermined our negotiations every step of the way.

    So, either Traitor May sells out the UK in one of the greatest acts of failure since Chamberlain, or no deal.

    But Soft Brexit simply does not exist.
    You are making the error when you say "does not respect the result of the referendum". Norway isn't in the EU and has those things (ok via the EFTA court, but the ECJ opines on matters relating to EU law that Norway has agreed to follow).
    If you think that EEA PLUS Customs Union (which is what the EU are insisting on) respects the result of the referendum, you are a looney. It delivers NOTHING that people voted on - no immigration control, no trade policy, no taking back of control, no stopping large contributions - NOTHING. If you think that will fly then David Cameron has a used renegotiation to sell you.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,626
    The polls must have been a load of bunk. At one time we were expecting a Tory majority of over 300, dwarfing Thatcher's in 1983 and Blair's in 1997 and giving Theresa the most massive democratic mandate in the history of the planet. Was that really going to happen?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 2,805
    Can we all now agree that "they need us more than they need them" AKA the German Car Manufacturers' Gambit, has been thoroughly debunked by reality?

    And will any posters who espoused this theory have the guts to admit they got it wrong?
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 963
    I think people are now so fed up with Brexit that they just want it over and would take a no deal secnario. Although I voted remain I think the EU will miss us much more than we miss them so we should now just say stuff em.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,580
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
    One might view this as overcautious but I can see enough water between the EU and the Gov'ts position now to take my stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet, and I have done so (leaving the profit on Out)..
    I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'.
    That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
    TMay can't accept the EU's Irish Sea Border. The EU won't offer anything else.

    We have finally reached impasse. This is it.

    She now has to go to her MPs and say: the UK must accept something like EEA status, for the moment, it's my only option. Your call.

    They can either vote her down and collapse the government, risking the calamity of a Corbyn win (which itself means Soft Brexit, or even Remain), or another weak Tory-led Coalition which will face precisely the same Irish dilemma (only with less time to get real). Or they could just replace her with another leader but he'd ALSO face the same dilemma.

    Or they can reluctantly agree to EEA.

    We fucked Brexit. Dominic Cummings is right.

    TMay should never have set her red lines, hemming herself in, and she should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out.

    It's only an impasse because the EU claims that a hard border is an inevitable consequence of not having 100% regulatory alignment. If they dropped that nonsense then it wouldn't be an impasse. It's up to them, but they don't seem to have quite twigged that it is their own red lines which are mutually incompatible.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,392
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    (Shudder). I'd rather not be reminded, thank you.

    It was a very profitable evening. Here's hoping for another one soon.
    I've never felt so ill in my life winning ~ 3 grand.
    I changed my mind about the election on 21 May. I actually felt really bad as I started betting on Labour, accepting that many of my original bets were losers (Ashfield nearly came in, mind). But I'm glad I did.
    SNAP. I changed my mind at the exact same time. The manifesto, the fcreeping up of Corbyn in the polls..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,275
    edited June 8
    Mr. Currystar, if we do end up leaving with no deal (and therefore not throwing £39bn at the EU), it'd be wise to use some of that money on bolstering transport infrastructure in the north of England.

    So it probably won't happen.

    Edited extra bit: ahem. I'm a bit distracted with other stuff and, for some reason, thought there was such money waiting around to be spent rather than just increasing the debt even more. *sighs* Just ignore that.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,094

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why not? It is the whole of the UK which is leaving after all.
    I have been trying to get this through the thick heads of Remainers for weeks. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS SOFT BREXIT.

    The EU will not allow the UK to stay in the CU for the backstop (or anything else) because CU=SM=FOM. Get yourselves a T-shirt with the formula so you can remember it.

    The ONLY two outcomes the EU will accept are:

    1. NI in the CU and SM andty for this.
    2. UK in EEA-Plus, combining the EEA and the CU - this is ridiculous as it does not respect the result of the referendum - it involves full FOM, ECJ, ongoing contributions and no trade policy - eg everything we voted to Leave.

    It didn't need to be like this. A tough negotiating position early on, a walkout and prep for no deal would have likely delivered a different outcome. But Barnier is now out of control and is so puffed up with his success humiliating the UK negotiators that there is no way to get him back to a sensible deal now. Thanks Remainers for this. You undermined our negotiations every step of the way.

    So, either Traitor May sells out the UK in one of the greatest acts of failure since Chamberlain, or no deal.

    But Soft Brexit simply does not exist.
    You are making the error when you say "does not respect the result of the referendum". Norway isn't in the EU and has those things (ok via the EFTA court, but the ECJ opines on matters relating to EU law that Norway has agreed to follow).
    If you think that EEA PLUS Customs Union (which is what the EU are insisting on) respects the result of the referendum, you are a looney. It delivers NOTHING that people voted on - no immigration control, no trade policy, no taking back of control, no stopping large contributions - NOTHING. If you think that will fly then David Cameron has a used renegotiation to sell you.
    They might have wanted that but that's not what their vote meant. They voted in or out. Norway is out. They will have got what they voted for.

    I can't believe I'm typing this but @SeanT has summarised it well - we are at the crunch point now.

    We have had many discussions about NI previously (people here, ahem, might be aware of my views on it) and here it is, NI coming home to roost. We have zero wiggle room whatsoever.

    Now, this doesn't mean we shouldn't have voted Leave, but it does mean that it should have been explained the complexities of doing so. I'm sure as an informed Leave voter (did you vote?) you knew it, of course.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,802
    SeanT said:

    We fucked Brexit. Dominic Cummings is right.

    TMay should never have set her red lines, hemming herself in, and she should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out.

    Brexit is certainly fucked, but as Peter Mandelson predicted, it was fucked by Brexit.

    If Tezza had not set her red lines, she would have been deposed, and Brexit would be fucked.

    If she had not triggered A50, she would have been deposed, and Brexit would be fucked.

    Not sure if you are a Prog Rock fan, but Genesis, the chamber of 32 doors is applicable.

    Everyone is looking for a way out, but all doors lead right back here again.

    Brexit is fucked, by Brexit.

    As we told you it would be, before the vote.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 2,805
    currystar said:

    I think people are now so fed up with Brexit that they just want it over and would take a no deal secnario. Although I voted remain I think the EU will miss us much more than we miss them so we should now just say stuff em.

    It's still out there in the wild! I can't believe it! Someone put this post in a glass box to preserve it for posterity! It's like finding a dodo....
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 816
    Scott_P said:

    Whiny rant SNIPPED

    You won! Suck it up !!!

    This steaming shitshow is down to everyone that voted for it.

    However hard you wish you could blame those who said don't do it, it will be shit, it doesn't wash.
    The biggest lie of all. Brexit has not been run by Leavers, it has been run by Remainers, which is why it is heading for disaster. DD has been sidelined and May, Robbins and Hammond have run this shitshow.

    You will never, ever, be able to make your line stick. The majority who voted Leave will always know that it was the Remainers who deliberately undermined the verdict of the people.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,487
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
    One might view this as overcautious but I can see enough water between the EU and the Gov'ts position now to take my stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet, and I have done so (leaving the profit on Out)..
    I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'.
    That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
    TMay can't accept the EU's Irish Sea Border. The EU won't offer anything else.

    We have finally reached impasse. This is it.

    She now has to go to her MPs and say: the UK must accept something like EEA status, for the moment, it's my only option. Your call.

    They can either vote her down and collapse the government, risking the calamity of a Corbyn win (which itself means Soft Brexit, or even Remain), or another weak Tory-led Coalition which will face precisely the same Irish dilemma (only with less time to get real). Or they could just replace her with another leader but he'd ALSO face the same dilemma.

    Or they can reluctantly agree to EEA.

    We fucked Brexit. Dominic Cummings is right.

    TMay should never have set her red lines, hemming herself in, and she should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out.


    "[TMay] should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out"

    This was not possible. The EU refused to negotiate or even bring up the issues (e.g. the Irish border) until A50 had been triggered.

    We were screwed when the Lisbon treaty was signed.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,195
    edited June 8
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
    That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
    And also highly questionable if a labour government (especially Corbyn) would accept it either
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,911

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
    One might view this as overcautious but I can see enough water between the EU and the Gov'ts position now to take my stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet, and I have done so (leaving the profit on Out)..
    I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'.
    That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
    TMay can't accept the EU's Irish Sea Border. The EU won't offer anything else.

    We have finally reached impasse. This is it.

    She now has to go to her MPs and say: the UK must accept something like EEA status, for the moment, it's my only option. Your call.

    They can either vote her down and collapse the government, risking the calamity of a Corbyn win (which itself means Soft Brexit, or even Remain), or another weak Tory-led Coalition which will face precisely the same Irish dilemma (only with less time to get real). Or they could just replace her with another leader but he'd ALSO face the same dilemma.

    Or they can reluctantly agree to EEA.

    We fucked Brexit. Dominic Cummings is right.

    TMay should never have set her red lines, hemming herself in, and she should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out.

    It's only an impasse because the EU claims that a hard border is an inevitable consequence of not having 100% regulatory alignment. If they dropped that nonsense then it wouldn't be an impasse. It's up to them, but they don't seem to have quite twigged that it is their own red lines which are mutually incompatible.
    Rationally, it is nonsense, yes. But in terms of hardball and realpolitik and the clever use of leverage, it makes total sense, because they want the UK to Reverse Brexit or at least stay in the CU and SM. And they think they can bully a very weak prime minister (facing a mad Marxist opponent who might just win an election) into accepting this.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,094
    edited June 8

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
    One might view this as overcautious but I can see enough water between the EU and the Gov'ts position now to take my stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet, and I have done so (leaving the profit on Out)..
    I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'.
    That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
    TMay can't accept the EU's Irish Sea Border. The EU won't offer anything else.

    We have finally reached impasse. This is it.

    She now has to go to her MPs and say: the UK must accept something like EEA status, for the moment, it's my only option. Your call.

    They can either vote her down and collapse the government, risking the calamity of a Corbyn win (which itself means Soft Brexit, or even Remain), or another weak Tory-led Coalition which will face precisely the same Irish dilemma (only with less time to get real). Or they could just replace her with another leader but he'd ALSO face the same dilemma.

    Or they can reluctantly agree to EEA.

    We fucked Brexit. Dominic Cummings is right.

    TMay should never have set her red lines, hemming herself in, and she should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out.

    It's only an impasse because the EU claims that a hard border is an inevitable consequence of not having 100% regulatory alignment. If they dropped that nonsense then it wouldn't be an impasse. It's up to them, but they don't seem to have quite twigged that it is their own red lines which are mutually incompatible.
    Yes this is the inherent contradiction. The EU doesn't want a hard border. So then don't put one up. Use technology. But that would diminish their negotiating position and hence they have to threaten precisely what they don't want in order to force their position forward.

    Exquisite.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 2,805

    Scott_P said:

    Whiny rant SNIPPED

    You won! Suck it up !!!

    This steaming shitshow is down to everyone that voted for it.

    However hard you wish you could blame those who said don't do it, it will be shit, it doesn't wash.
    The biggest lie of all. Brexit has not been run by Leavers, it has been run by Remainers, which is why it is heading for disaster. DD has been sidelined and May, Robbins and Hammond have run this shitshow.

    You will never, ever, be able to make your line stick. The majority who voted Leave will always know that it was the Remainers who deliberately undermined the verdict of the people.
    LOL! So what is the alternative when the EU says "no" to anything put forward?

    'WE HOLD ALL THE CARDS' does it feel like that to you right now?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,487
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    (Shudder). I'd rather not be reminded, thank you.

    It was a very profitable evening. Here's hoping for another one soon.
    I've never felt so ill in my life winning ~ 3 grand.
    I changed my mind about the election on 21 May. I actually felt really bad as I started betting on Labour, accepting that many of my original bets were losers (Ashfield nearly came in, mind). But I'm glad I did.
    SNAP. I changed my mind at the exact same time. The manifesto, the fcreeping up of Corbyn in the polls..

    That manifesto.

    *shudders*

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,275
    Sometimes a large jump is needed. You can't cross a chasm in two steps.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 963

    Mr. Currystar, if we do end up leaving with no deal (and therefore not throwing £39bn at the EU), it'd be wise to use some of that money on bolstering transport infrastructure in the north of England.

    So it probably won't happen.

    Edited extra bit: ahem. I'm a bit distracted with other stuff and, for some reason, thought there was such money waiting around to be spent rather than just increasing the debt even more. *sighs* Just ignore that.

    I think it will. the EU will not bend and the British people will not accept Brexit on the EU terms as it is simply not Brexit. Even a lefty comedian on Mock the Week last night was saying we should just get it over with and walk away. British people will not accept being bullied by the EU
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
    One might view this as overcautious but I can see enough water between the EU and the Gov'ts position now to take my stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet, and I have done so (leaving the profit on Out)..
    I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'.
    That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
    TMay can't accept the EU's Irish Sea Border. The EU won't offer anything else.

    We have finally reached impasse. This is it.

    She now has to go to her MPs and say: the UK must accept something like EEA status, for the moment, it's my only option. Your call.

    They can either vote her down and collapse the government, risking the calamity of a Corbyn win (which itself means Soft Brexit, or even Remain), or another weak Tory-led Coalition which will face precisely the same Irish dilemma (only with less time to get real). Or they could just replace her with another leader but he'd ALSO face the same dilemma.

    Or they can reluctantly agree to EEA.

    We fucked Brexit. Dominic Cummings is right.

    TMay should never have set her red lines, hemming herself in, and she should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out.

    It's only an impasse because the EU claims that a hard border is an inevitable consequence of not having 100% regulatory alignment. If they dropped that nonsense then it wouldn't be an impasse. It's up to them, but they don't seem to have quite twigged that it is their own red lines which are mutually incompatible.
    Rationally, it is nonsense, yes. But in terms of hardball and realpolitik and the clever use of leverage, it makes total sense, because they want the UK to Reverse Brexit or at least stay in the CU and SM. And they think they can bully a very weak prime minister (facing a mad Marxist opponent who might just win an election) into accepting this.
    But, May cannot give them what they want, even if she wanted to.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,094
    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:

    Whiny rant SNIPPED

    You won! Suck it up !!!

    This steaming shitshow is down to everyone that voted for it.

    However hard you wish you could blame those who said don't do it, it will be shit, it doesn't wash.
    The biggest lie of all. Brexit has not been run by Leavers, it has been run by Remainers, which is why it is heading for disaster. DD has been sidelined and May, Robbins and Hammond have run this shitshow.

    You will never, ever, be able to make your line stick. The majority who voted Leave will always know that it was the Remainers who deliberately undermined the verdict of the people.
    LOL! So what is the alternative when the EU says "no" to anything put forward?

    'WE HOLD ALL THE CARDS' does it feel like that to you right now?
    It probably does because it's midnight and I'm sure the evening hasn't been shandyless for @archer101au.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,392
    I can't see how Barnier is NOT insisting on a hard border in the Irish sea at the moment ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,802
    currystar said:

    we should just get it over with and walk away. British people will not accept being bullied by the EU

    If they think the British people are unhappy now, just wait until they see what "no deal" actually means.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,347
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
    One might view this as overcautious but I can see enough water between the EU and the Gov'ts position now to take my stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet, and I have done so (leaving the profit on Out)..
    I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'.
    That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
    TMay can't accept the EU's Irish Sea Border. The EU won't offer anything else.

    We have finally reached impasse. This is it.

    She now has to go to her MPs and say: the UK must accept something like EEA status, for the moment, it's my only option. Your call.

    They can either vote her down and collapse the government, risking the calamity of a Corbyn win (which itself means Soft Brexit, or even Remain), or another weak Tory-led Coalition which will face precisely the same Irish dilemma (only with less time to get real). Or they could just replace her with another leader but he'd ALSO face the same dilemma.

    Or they can reluctantly agree to EEA.

    We fucked Brexit. Dominic Cummings is right.

    TMay should never have set her red lines, hemming herself in, and she should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out.

    Engineer a withdrawal of the A50 negotiation in order for the UK to have time to decide what it wants? Out of two unpalatable options, it may be the best for saving her skin (which is likely to be the key criterion, after all). EEA sounds a more permanent, irreversible betrayal to the ERG and friends.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,275
    Mr. Currystar, the British people aren't negotiating. Those who backed Remain are, seemingly more intent on outmanoeuvring Leave politicians than the EU, keener to stand against the British electorate than for the British interest.

    I do agree, however, that the public will not take kindly to capitulation.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,094
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
    One might view this as overcautious but I can see enough water between the EU and the Gov'ts position now to take my stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet, and I have done so (leaving the profit on Out)..
    I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'.
    That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
    TMay can't accept the EU's Irish Sea Border. The EU won't offer anything else.

    We have finally reached impasse. This is it.

    She now has to go to her MPs and say: the UK must accept something like EEA status, for the moment, it's my only option. Your call.

    They can either vote her down and collapse the government, risking the calamity of a Corbyn win (which itself means Soft Brexit, or even Remain), or another weak Tory-led Coalition which will face precisely the same Irish dilemma (only with less time to get real). Or they could just replace her with another leader but he'd ALSO face the same dilemma.

    Or they can reluctantly agree to EEA.

    We fucked Brexit. Dominic Cummings is right.

    TMay should never have set her red lines, hemming herself in, and she should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out.

    It's only an impasse because the EU claims that a hard border is an inevitable consequence of not having 100% regulatory alignment. If they dropped that nonsense then it wouldn't be an impasse. It's up to them, but they don't seem to have quite twigged that it is their own red lines which are mutually incompatible.
    Rationally, it is nonsense, yes. But in terms of hardball and realpolitik and the clever use of leverage, it makes total sense, because they want the UK to Reverse Brexit or at least stay in the CU and SM. And they think they can bully a very weak prime minister (facing a mad Marxist opponent who might just win an election) into accepting this.
    But, May cannot give them what they want, even if she wanted to.
    Everything is solved with EEA (or EEA-type) CU/SM alignment by the whole of the UK.

    Apart of course from FoM but no one really cares about that, do they?
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 963
    Scott_P said:

    currystar said:

    we should just get it over with and walk away. British people will not accept being bullied by the EU

    If they think the British people are unhappy now, just wait until they see what "no deal" actually means.
    Nobody knows its never happened before, but we will cope
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,911

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
    One might view this as overcautious but I can see enough water between the EU and the Gov'ts position now to take my stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet, and I have done so (leaving the profit on Out)..
    I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'.
    That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
    TMay ca

    TMay should never have set her red lines, hemming herself in, and she should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out.


    "[TMay] should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out"

    This was not possible. The EU refused to negotiate or even bring up the issues (e.g. the Irish border) until A50 had been triggered.

    We were screwed when the Lisbon treaty was signed.

    I tend to agree. Lisbon and its hideous A50 was the crucial moment when leaving the EU became almost impossible. It's when the prison door shut. The question is can we tunnel out?

    We were meant to have had a fucking referendum on Lisbon and of course we would have voted it down, so all this is the fault of the Satanic pedo-europhiles who got us into Lisbon with lies and cant. Grrrr.

    That said, I still think an internal debate within the UK (and the Tory party) about our strategy and objectives, before triggering A50, would have improved our position. We should have wargamed all of this, very slowly. The EU had no legal power to make us hurry up.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,094
    edited June 8
    currystar said:

    Scott_P said:

    currystar said:

    we should just get it over with and walk away. British people will not accept being bullied by the EU

    If they think the British people are unhappy now, just wait until they see what "no deal" actually means.
    Nobody knows its never happened before, but we will cope
    Reminds me of those tweets: Brexit - not as bad as [insert catastrophic event, say WWII, here]
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 816
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:



    You are making the error when you say "does not respect the result of the referendum". Norway isn't in the EU and has those things (ok via the EFTA court, but the ECJ opines on matters relating to EU law that Norway has agreed to follow).

    If you think that EEA PLUS Customs Union (which is what the EU are insisting on) respects the result of the referendum, you are a looney. It delivers NOTHING that people voted on - no immigration control, no trade policy, no taking back of control, no stopping large contributions - NOTHING. If you think that will fly then David Cameron has a used renegotiation to sell you.
    They might have wanted that but that's not what their vote meant. They voted in or out. Norway is out. They will have got what they voted for.

    I can't believe I'm typing this but @SeanT has summarised it well - we are at the crunch point now.

    We have had many discussions about NI previously (people here, ahem, might be aware of my views on it) and here it is, NI coming home to roost. We have zero wiggle room whatsoever.

    Now, this doesn't mean we shouldn't have voted Leave, but it does mean that it should have been explained the complexities of doing so. I'm sure as an informed Leave voter (did you vote?) you knew it, of course.
    I knew perfectly well what was required. So did all Leavers. We needed to Leave, not try to Remain by some other means. If we had actually decided to leave, there would be no issue. We would never have even considered agreeing to a backstop. We would have prepared for no deal, told the EU that the NI border had to be resolved jointly or not at all, and negotiated a CETA style FTA in return for the Brexit bill. The UK never, ever, had a problem with the NI border as long as we said we were leaving and that we would not institute a hard border. The EU laid a trap and the Remainers jumped right in, because they knew it would stuff the UK position.

    Barnier is right - the REMAINERS endless whinging that they did not want to respect the result of the referendum, as you clearly demonstrate, has led us to ask for the 'benefits' of membership without the 'obligations'. This caused the UK to try and negotiate a ridiculous soft Brexit that has tied us up in knots and now, not surprisingly, cannot be delivered.

    And what do we see - Remainers celebrating the potential humiliation of their own country. Says it all.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,802
    SeanT said:

    That said, I still think an internal debate within the UK (and the Tory party) about our strategy and objectives, before triggering A50, would have improved our position. We should have wargamed all of this, very slowly. The EU had no legal power to make us hurry up.

    It was internal Tory debate that forced the timing.

    "Trigger A50, or we get someone who will..."
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,195
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    That said, I still think an internal debate within the UK (and the Tory party) about our strategy and objectives, before triggering A50, would have improved our position. We should have wargamed all of this, very slowly. The EU had no legal power to make us hurry up.

    It was internal Tory debate that forced the timing.

    "Trigger A50, or we get someone who will..."
    Worth pointing out that Corbyn was also pushing Cameron to trigger A50 the day after the referendum.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,889
    The leavers are going full moutons de Panurge. Calm down lads, Brexit is still going to happen and there will be enough recrimination and loathing for all.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,626
    Brexit doesn't have to be fucked. I suggest the following.

    Theresa resigns.

    The Tories replace her with a pragmatist who can straddle Leave and Remain.

    We extend the Article 50 period to five more years.

    A joint EU/UK committee is set up to recommend the most feasible solution, and all UK political parties agree to adhere to its findings.

    A new referendum is called giving the choice of Brexit as recommended or full and complete withdrawal.

    The first option will win by a landslide.

    We'll all be merry and gay.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 963
    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    Scott_P said:

    currystar said:

    we should just get it over with and walk away. British people will not accept being bullied by the EU

    If they think the British people are unhappy now, just wait until they see what "no deal" actually means.
    Nobody knows its never happened before, but we will cope
    Reminds me of those tweets: Brexit - not as bad as [insert catastrophic event, say WWII, here]
    Maybe, but it will happen, neither side can now back down, its all too complicated
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 816
    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:

    Whiny rant SNIPPED

    You won! Suck it up !!!

    This steaming shitshow is down to everyone that voted for it.

    However hard you wish you could blame those who said don't do it, it will be shit, it doesn't wash.
    The biggest lie of all. Brexit has not been run by Leavers, it has been run by Remainers, which is why it is heading for disaster. DD has been sidelined and May, Robbins and Hammond have run this shitshow.

    You will never, ever, be able to make your line stick. The majority who voted Leave will always know that it was the Remainers who deliberately undermined the verdict of the people.
    LOL! So what is the alternative when the EU says "no" to anything put forward?

    'WE HOLD ALL THE CARDS' does it feel like that to you right now?
    The alternative, as with any negotiation, was no deal. We did hold all the cards. There was NOTHING that the EU could do to stop the UK leaving on whatever terms it liked. The EU had no control of UK choices after Brexit and had no ability to enforce a single Euro of their divorce bill. We had the backstop of WTO trading rules.

    Remainers sold it all away for their obsession of ignoring the result of the referendum.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,203
    currystar said:

    Mr. Currystar, if we do end up leaving with no deal (and therefore not throwing £39bn at the EU), it'd be wise to use some of that money on bolstering transport infrastructure in the north of England.

    So it probably won't happen.

    Edited extra bit: ahem. I'm a bit distracted with other stuff and, for some reason, thought there was such money waiting around to be spent rather than just increasing the debt even more. *sighs* Just ignore that.

    I think it will. the EU will not bend and the British people will not accept Brexit on the EU terms as it is simply not Brexit. Even a lefty comedian on Mock the Week last night was saying we should just get it over with and walk away. British people will not accept being bullied by the EU
    I don't know about that Mr currystar,going by on here,plenty will.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,911
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
    One might view this as overcautious but I can see enough water between the EU and the Gov'ts position now to take my stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet, and I have done so (leaving the profit on Out)..
    I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'.
    That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
    TMay can't accept the EU's Irish Sea Border. The EU won't offer anything else.

    We h
    Or they can reluctantly agree to EEA.

    We fucked Brexit. Dominic Cummings is right.

    TMay should never have set her red lines, hemming herself in, and she should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out.

    It's only an impasse because the EU claims that a hard border is an inevitable consequence of not having 100% regulatory alignment. If they dropped that nonsense then it wouldn't be an impasse. It's up to them, but they don't seem to have quite twigged that it is their own red lines which are mutually incompatible.
    Rationally, it is nonsense, yes. But in terms of hardball and realpolitik and the clever use of leverage, it makes total sense, because they want the UK to Reverse Brexit or at least stay in the CU and SM. And they think they can bully a very weak prime minister (facing a mad Marxist opponent who might just win an election) into accepting this.
    But, May cannot give them what they want, even if she wanted to.
    I see no way out of this apart from No Deal, a new General Election (with all the risk and chaos that might come it, and the same dilemma at the end of it, anyway), or the Tories reluctantly accepting EEA for now.

    What do you expect?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,094

    I knew perfectly well what was required. So did all Leavers. We needed to Leave, not try to Remain by some other means. If we had actually decided to leave, there would be no issue. We would never have even considered agreeing to a backstop. We would have prepared for no deal, told the EU that the NI border had to be resolved jointly or not at all, and negotiated a CETA style FTA in return for the Brexit bill. The UK never, ever, had a problem with the NI border as long as we said we were leaving and that we would not institute a hard border. The EU laid a trap and the Remainers jumped right in, because they knew it would stuff the UK position.

    Barnier is right - the REMAINERS endless whinging that they did not want to respect the result of the referendum, as you clearly demonstrate, has led us to ask for the 'benefits' of membership without the 'obligations'. This caused the UK to try and negotiate a ridiculous soft Brexit that has tied us up in knots and now, not surprisingly, cannot be delivered.

    And what do we see - Remainers celebrating the potential humiliation of their own country. Says it all.

    Nope. Wrong on several counts.

    First, you, like Boris and many other Leavers, some of whom actually live in the UK so should know better, have paid token lip service to the NI issue. There is absolutely no solution to the NI/RoI situation that falls short of CU/SM. That should have been obvious. You as a grown-up (no proof here) should have realised that this was the very crux of the whole leaving debate. But no. You wanted sovereignty. Which we always had, of course.

    And secondly, I am not celebrating the humiliation of my country (again, sorry to rub it in, but I am at least sufficiently approving of the UK to actually live in it), I am pointing out what is clear and has been clear for some time: that modern international relations cannot be boiled down to meaningless soundbites which do not take any note of the many consequences that they entail.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,889

    Mr. Currystar, the British people aren't negotiating. Those who backed Remain are, seemingly more intent on outmanoeuvring Leave politicians than the EU, keener to stand against the British electorate than for the British interest.

    The British interest, whether defined as economic, social or political, is to remoan in the EU. It is the leavers who are indulging themselves with an act of vile barratry that will harm the UK.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,641

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:



    You are making the error when you say "does not respect the result of the referendum". Norway isn't in the EU and has those things (ok via the EFTA court, but the ECJ opines on matters relating to EU law that Norway has agreed to follow).

    If you think that EEA PLUS Customs Union (which is what the EU are insisting on) respects the result of the referendum, you are a looney. It delivers NOTHING that people voted on - no immigration control, no trade policy, no taking back of control, no stopping large contributions - NOTHING. If you think that will fly then David Cameron has a used renegotiation to sell you.
    They might have wanted that but that's not what their vote meant. They voted in or out. Norway is out. They will have got what they voted for.

    I can't believe I'm typing this but @SeanT has summarised it well - we are at the crunch point now.

    We have had many discussions about NI previously (people here, ahem, might be aware of my views on it) and here it is, NI coming home to roost. We have zero wiggle room whatsoever.

    Now, this doesn't mean we shouldn't have voted Leave, but it does mean that it should have been explained the complexities of doing so. I'm sure as an informed Leave voter (did you vote?) you knew it, of course.
    I knew perfectly well what was required. So did all Leavers. We needed to Leave, not try to Remain by some other means. If we had actually decided to leave, there would be no issue. We would never have even considered agreeing to a backstop. We would have prepared for no deal, told the EU that the NI border had to be resolved jointly or not at all, and negotiated a CETA style FTA in return for the Brexit bill. The UK never, ever, had a problem with the NI border as long as we said we were leaving and that we would not institute a hard border. The EU laid a trap and the Remainers jumped right in, because they knew it would stuff the UK position.

    Barnier is right - the REMAINERS endless whinging that they did not want to respect the result of the referendum, as you clearly demonstrate, has led us to ask for the 'benefits' of membership without the 'obligations'. This caused the UK to try and negotiate a ridiculous soft Brexit that has tied us up in knots and now, not surprisingly, cannot be delivered.

    And what do we see - Remainers celebrating the potential humiliation of their own country. Says it all.
    Personally, I am celebrating the humiliation of the Conservative Party. It is a great shame that they have dragged the country down with them.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 963

    currystar said:

    Mr. Currystar, if we do end up leaving with no deal (and therefore not throwing £39bn at the EU), it'd be wise to use some of that money on bolstering transport infrastructure in the north of England.

    So it probably won't happen.

    Edited extra bit: ahem. I'm a bit distracted with other stuff and, for some reason, thought there was such money waiting around to be spent rather than just increasing the debt even more. *sighs* Just ignore that.

    I think it will. the EU will not bend and the British people will not accept Brexit on the EU terms as it is simply not Brexit. Even a lefty comedian on Mock the Week last night was saying we should just get it over with and walk away. British people will not accept being bullied by the EU
    I don't know about that Mr currystar,going by on here,plenty will.
    This site is completely unrepresentative of the british people who in the main hate politics.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,094
    My comment a week ago:

    "Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options."
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 816
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
    One might view this as overcautious but I can see enough water between the EU and the Gov'ts position now to take my stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet, and I have done so (leaving the profit on Out)..
    I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'.
    That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
    TMay ca

    TMay should never have set her red lines, hemming herself in, and she should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out.


    "[TMay] should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out"

    This was not possible. The EU refused to negotiate or even bring up the issues (e.g. the Irish border) until A50 had been triggered.

    We were screwed when the Lisbon treaty was signed.

    I tend to agree. Lisbon and its hideous A50 was the crucial moment when leaving the EU became almost impossible. It's when the prison door shut. The question is can we tunnel out?

    We were meant to have had a fucking referendum on Lisbon and of course we would have voted it down, so all this is the fault of the Satanic pedo-europhiles who got us into Lisbon with lies and cant. Grrrr.

    That said, I still think an internal debate within the UK (and the Tory party) about our strategy and objectives, before triggering A50, would have improved our position. We should have wargamed all of this, very slowly. The EU had no legal power to make us hurry up.
    You are being soft. A50 was not the problem. Three years was PLENTY of time to prepare for no deal. The problem is and has always been that the UK Government is controlled by people who never had the slightest intention of breaking away from the EU. From the moment the people voted, the game was how to pretend to implement the result without changing anything. Now, they realise a bit late that our 'friends' in the EU are actually our mortal enemies.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 95
    currystar said:

    Scott_P said:

    currystar said:

    we should just get it over with and walk away. British people will not accept being bullied by the EU

    If they think the British people are unhappy now, just wait until they see what "no deal" actually means.
    Nobody knows its never happened before, but we will cope
    I'm not going to pretend to know how we'll fare in any scenario, and yes, we won't all die. But *if* there is a significant downturn (or planes not flying or the rest), you can be sure that the government will get the blame. And if it's a different government in 4 years time, it will get the blame if it doesn't get fixed. "Well, you voted for it"/"the EU are beastly"/"blame the last lot" won't work (see also austerity).

    So.. I get that TMay feels the need to deliver Brexit and "not be bullied".. but she also needs to bear in mind that a more-than-marginally-sub-optimal version risks putting her successors out of power for some time.

    How's that boil-lancing going, Dave?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363
    edited June 8
    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
    One might view this as overcautious but I can see enough water between the EU and the Gov'ts position now to take my stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet, and I have done so (leaving the profit on Out)..
    I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'.
    That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
    TMay can't accept the EU's Irish Sea Border. The EU won't offer anything else.

    We h
    Or they can reluctantly agree to EEA.

    We fucked Brexit. Dominic Cummings is right.

    TMay should never have set her red lines, hemming herself in, and she should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out.

    It's only an impasse because the EU claims that a hard border is an inevitable consequence of not having 100% regulatory alignment. If they dropped that nonsense then it wouldn't be an impasse. It's up to them, but they don't seem to have quite twigged that it is their own red lines which are mutually incompatible.
    Rationally, it is nonsense, yes. But in terms of hardball and realpolitik and the clever use of leverage, it makes total sense, because they want the UK to Reverse Brexit or at least stay in the CU and SM. And they think they can bully a very weak prime minister (facing a mad Marxist opponent who might just win an election) into accepting this.
    But, May cannot give them what they want, even if she wanted to.
    I see no way out of this apart from No Deal, a new General Election (with all the risk and chaos that might come it, and the same dilemma at the end of it, anyway), or the Tories reluctantly accepting EEA for now.

    What do you expect?
    At this stage, I have no idea. I wouldn't even rule out the possibility of reaching a workable agreement with the EU.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 2,805

    Mr. Currystar, the British people aren't negotiating. Those who backed Remain are, seemingly more intent on outmanoeuvring Leave politicians than the EU, keener to stand against the British electorate than for the British interest.

    I do agree, however, that the public will not take kindly to capitulation.

    You have got to be kidding me.

    Both main parties support Brexit.

    Yes May "supported" Remain (almost silently and perhaps tactically) at the referendum, but the first 3 months of her leadership bid were exclusively "Brexit means Brexit". Boris, Davis and Fox in the Cabinet.
    Even Corbyn is stymying attempts to water down Brexit e.g. by not supporting the Lords' EEA amendment.
    Perhaps you would prefer some sort of oath of allegiance to Brexit as a requirement to be an MP? Ideological purity testing?

    What we have right now is simply the result of Leavers promising the electorate unicorns and only having the budget for an injured donkey with a plunger on its head.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,392
    Freggles said:

    Mr. Currystar, the British people aren't negotiating. Those who backed Remain are, seemingly more intent on outmanoeuvring Leave politicians than the EU, keener to stand against the British electorate than for the British interest.

    I do agree, however, that the public will not take kindly to capitulation.

    You have got to be kidding me.

    Both main parties support Brexit.

    Yes May "supported" Remain (almost silently and perhaps tactically) at the referendum, but the first 3 months of her leadership bid were exclusively "Brexit means Brexit". Boris, Davis and Fox in the Cabinet.
    Even Corbyn is stymying attempts to water down Brexit e.g. by not supporting the Lords' EEA amendment.
    Perhaps you would prefer some sort of oath of allegiance to Brexit as a requirement to be an MP? Ideological purity testing?

    What we have right now is simply the result of Leavers promising the electorate unicorns and only having the budget for an injured donkey with a plunger on its head.
    It isn't leavers reaching for unicorns today, it is Barnier.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,417

    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:

    Whiny rant SNIPPED

    You won! Suck it up !!!

    This steaming shitshow is down to everyone that voted for it.

    However hard you wish you could blame those who said don't do it, it will be shit, it doesn't wash.
    The biggest lie of all. Brexit has not been run by Leavers, it has been run by Remainers, which is why it is heading for disaster. DD has been sidelined and May, Robbins and Hammond have run this shitshow.

    You will never, ever, be able to make your line stick. The majority who voted Leave will always know that it was the Remainers who deliberately undermined the verdict of the people.
    LOL! So what is the alternative when the EU says "no" to anything put forward?

    'WE HOLD ALL THE CARDS' does it feel like that to you right now?
    The alternative, as with any negotiation, was no deal. We did hold all the cards. There was NOTHING that the EU could do to stop the UK leaving on whatever terms it liked. The EU had no control of UK choices after Brexit and had no ability to enforce a single Euro of their divorce bill. We had the backstop of WTO trading rules.

    Remainers sold it all away for their obsession of ignoring the result of the referendum.
    I think it is the Tory Leavers such as DD who have sold the pass.

    It is the problem when rhetoric collides with reality. Reality wins.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,275
    Mr. Freggles, I don't want unicorns, or even one unicorn.

    I want to leave the EU, and the customs union in particular. That doesn't seem an excessive thing for which to wish.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,107
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
    One might view this as overcautious but I can see enough water between the EU and the Gov'ts position now to take my stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet, and I have done so (leaving the profit on Out)..
    I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'.
    That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
    TMay ca

    TMay should never have set her red lines, hemming herself in, and she should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out.


    "[TMay] should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out"

    This was not possible. The EU refused to negotiate or even bring up the issues (e.g. the Irish border) until A50 had been triggered.

    We were screwed when the Lisbon treaty was signed.

    I tend to agree. Lisbon and its hideous A50 was the crucial moment when leaving the EU became almost impossible. It's when the prison door shut. The question is can we tunnel out?

    We were meant to have had a fucking referendum on Lisbon and of course we would have voted it down, so all this is the fault of the Satanic pedo-europhiles who got us into Lisbon with lies and cant. Grrrr.

    That said, I still think an internal debate within the UK (and the Tory party) about our strategy and objectives, before triggering A50, would have improved our position. We should have wargamed all of this, very slowly. The EU had no legal power to make us hurry up.
    cant see what all the fuss is about myself

    the thing is to leave and take the Michael Collins approach of once your out you can drift away

    as for the EU holding all the cards that's just bunkum, but it takes a hard headed negotiator to play the game.

    we should ask the DUP to take over DD's seat.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 816
    TOPPING said:



    Nope. Wrong on several counts.

    First, you, like Boris and many other Leavers, some of whom actually live in the UK so should know better, have paid token lip service to the NI issue. There is absolutely no solution to the NI/RoI situation that falls short of CU/SM. That should have been obvious. You as a grown-up (no proof here) should have realised that this was the very crux of the whole leaving debate. But no. You wanted sovereignty. Which we always had, of course.

    And secondly, I am not celebrating the humiliation of my country (again, sorry to rub it in, but I am at least sufficiently approving of the UK to actually live in it), I am pointing out what is clear and has been clear for some time: that modern international relations cannot be boiled down to meaningless soundbites which do not take any note of the many consequences that they entail.

    The solution to NI has been pointed out to you time and time again. You refuse to listen, because it gives you some strange comfort to pretend that the result of the referendum could not have actually been implemented, whereas in fact you simply weren't prepared to accept the vote.

    The UK simply had to say that it would impose a soft border on all northbound trade and accept any goods that met EU regulations as being acceptable. A maxfac scheme could have been slowly introduced that would tighten this up over a few years while UK regulations diverged. If the EU were not prepared to co-operate, then that was their problem. There is nothing in this that would have breached any obligations in the GFA or anywhere else.

    You know perfectly well that the former Irish Government thought exactly the same thing and were preparing to go in this direction, before Varadkhar decided to be Barniers little bitch.

    Just be honest. NI is a sidshow. You just won't accept the referendum because you think you are smarter than the people that voted to Leave.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,911

    currystar said:

    Scott_P said:

    currystar said:

    we should just get it over with and walk away. British people will not accept being bullied by the EU

    If they think the British people are unhappy now, just wait until they see what "no deal" actually means.
    Nobody knows its never happened before, but we will cope
    I'm not going to pretend to know how we'll fare in any scenario, and yes, we won't all die. But *if* there is a significant downturn (or planes not flying or the rest), you can be sure that the government will get the blame. And if it's a different government in 4 years time, it will get the blame if it doesn't get fixed. "Well, you voted for it"/"the EU are beastly"/"blame the last lot" won't work (see also austerity).

    So.. I get that TMay feels the need to deliver Brexit and "not be bullied".. but she also needs to bear in mind that a more-than-marginally-sub-optimal version risks putting her successors out of power for some time.

    How's that boil-lancing going, Dave?
    I'm a Leaver but I can see that No Deal would = significant chaos, from the Irish border to all our airports to 100 mile queues at Dover. And almost certainly there would be a severe recession. Investment in the UK would likewise collapse for a few years (it is already slowing), as international capital panicked and fled. London property, and then UK property, might dive in value, further undermining consumer confidence.

    Project Fear would come true, in spades. Corbyn might then win the next election, easily. And so we become Venezuela. Fab.

    And an ageing Corbyn would very probably be replaced, quite quickly, by a much more EU friendly Labour leader who would then, at the very least, take us into the EEA, so all the pain would have been pointless. Also fab.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 816
    Foxy said:

    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:

    Whiny rant SNIPPED

    You won! Suck it up !!!

    This steaming shitshow is down to everyone that voted for it.

    However hard you wish you could blame those who said don't do it, it will be shit, it doesn't wash.
    The biggest lie of all. Brexit has not been run by Leavers, it has been run by Remainers, which is why it is heading for disaster. DD has been sidelined and May, Robbins and Hammond have run this shitshow.

    You will never, ever, be able to make your line stick. The majority who voted Leave will always know that it was the Remainers who deliberately undermined the verdict of the people.
    LOL! So what is the alternative when the EU says "no" to anything put forward?

    'WE HOLD ALL THE CARDS' does it feel like that to you right now?
    The alternative, as with any negotiation, was no deal. We did hold all the cards. There was NOTHING that the EU could do to stop the UK leaving on whatever terms it liked. The EU had no control of UK choices after Brexit and had no ability to enforce a single Euro of their divorce bill. We had the backstop of WTO trading rules.

    Remainers sold it all away for their obsession of ignoring the result of the referendum.
    I think it is the Tory Leavers such as DD who have sold the pass.

    It is the problem when rhetoric collides with reality. Reality wins.
    Seriously, what part of the last few days makes you conclude that DD is running the show? Is there any limit to the deception of Remainers?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,203
    Pulpstar said:

    Freggles said:

    Mr. Currystar, the British people aren't negotiating. Those who backed Remain are, seemingly more intent on outmanoeuvring Leave politicians than the EU, keener to stand against the British electorate than for the British interest.

    I do agree, however, that the public will not take kindly to capitulation.

    You have got to be kidding me.

    Both main parties support Brexit.

    Yes May "supported" Remain (almost silently and perhaps tactically) at the referendum, but the first 3 months of her leadership bid were exclusively "Brexit means Brexit". Boris, Davis and Fox in the Cabinet.
    Even Corbyn is stymying attempts to water down Brexit e.g. by not supporting the Lords' EEA amendment.
    Perhaps you would prefer some sort of oath of allegiance to Brexit as a requirement to be an MP? Ideological purity testing?

    What we have right now is simply the result of Leavers promising the electorate unicorns and only having the budget for an injured donkey with a plunger on its head.
    It isn't leavers reaching for unicorns today, it is Barnier.
    What ever soft brexit we offer them,I have a feeling it won't be good enough.

    Seant is on to something .
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,802

    Mr. Freggles, I don't want unicorns, or even one unicorn.

    I want to leave the EU, and the customs union in particular. That doesn't seem an excessive thing for which to wish.

    Without crashing the economy.. Ah, there's the unicorn.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,487
    edited June 8
    .
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,574

    currystar said:

    Scott_P said:

    currystar said:

    we should just get it over with and walk away. British people will not accept being bullied by the EU

    If they think the British people are unhappy now, just wait until they see what "no deal" actually means.
    Nobody knows its never happened before, but we will cope
    I'm not going to pretend to know how we'll fare in any scenario, and yes, we won't all die. But *if* there is a significant downturn (or planes not flying or the rest), you can be sure that the government will get the blame. And if it's a different government in 4 years time, it will get the blame if it doesn't get fixed. "Well, you voted for it"/"the EU are beastly"/"blame the last lot" won't work (see also austerity).

    So.. I get that TMay feels the need to deliver Brexit and "not be bullied".. but she also needs to bear in mind that a more-than-marginally-sub-optimal version risks putting her successors out of power for some time.

    How's that boil-lancing going, Dave?
    Of course the retirment of Dacre and his replacement by someone significantly less Europhobic (!) is likely to alter the situation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,090
    Thanks Harry for the article, although some of don’t wish to be reminded of the perils of betting with the heart rather than the head. I finished about £800 down, saved only by the Scottish Tories and the highlight of a crap night, the defenestration of Alec Salmond.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,392
    I'd have made more on the GE if Paddy Power had accepted my four hundred quid in the shop on LD seats 10-19 at 10-1 !
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,090
    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    To leave completely, but keep paying the bills, and with the effective annexation of 5,450 square miles of our territory.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,094
    edited June 8
    Pulpstar said:

    Freggles said:

    Mr. Currystar, the British people aren't negotiating. Those who backed Remain are, seemingly more intent on outmanoeuvring Leave politicians than the EU, keener to stand against the British electorate than for the British interest.

    I do agree, however, that the public will not take kindly to capitulation.

    You have got to be kidding me.

    Both main parties support Brexit.

    Yes May "supported" Remain (almost silently and perhaps tactically) at the referendum, but the first 3 months of her leadership bid were exclusively "Brexit means Brexit". Boris, Davis and Fox in the Cabinet.
    Even Corbyn is stymying attempts to water down Brexit e.g. by not supporting the Lords' EEA amendment.
    Perhaps you would prefer some sort of oath of allegiance to Brexit as a requirement to be an MP? Ideological purity testing?

    What we have right now is simply the result of Leavers promising the electorate unicorns and only having the budget for an injured donkey with a plunger on its head.
    It isn't leavers reaching for unicorns today, it is Barnier.
    Practically, there are two elements -

    First, that he is protecting the EU's external borders. And secondly, that the EU negotiating position is strengthened by threatening something they don't want.

    It all turns on how much of an invisible border the EU will tolerate in NI. If wholly, then the problem is mitigated because first, that's what we have today, and second, no one will be antagonised (still less care) that the lorry that whizzes between NI and the RoI has filled out some customs form.

    He sees the Backstop as back door cakeism. So the question is, as @SeanT and @Richard_Nabavi have noted, is how much can the EU force the UK into a corner by threatening a hard border that they themselves don't want?
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,799
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
    One might view this as overcautious but I can see enough water between the EU and the Gov'ts position now to take my stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet, and I have done so (leaving the profit on Out)..
    I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'.
    That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
    TMay can't accept the EU's Irish Sea Border. The EU won't offer anything else.

    We h
    Or they can reluctantly agree to EEA.

    We fucked Brexit. Dominic Cummings is right.

    TMay should never have set her red lines, hemming herself in, and she should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out.

    It's only an impasse because the EU claims that a hard border is an inevitable consequence of not having 100% regulatory alignment. If they dropped that nonsense then it wouldn't be an impasse. It's up to them, but they don't seem to have quite twigged that it is their own red lines which are mutually incompatible.
    Rationally, it is nonsense, yes. But in terms of hardball and realpolitik and the clever use of leverage, it makes total sense, because they want the UK to Reverse Brexit or at least stay in the CU and SM. And they think they can bully a very weak prime minister (facing a mad Marxist opponent who might just win an election) into accepting this.
    But, May cannot give them what they want, even if she wanted to.
    I see no way out of this apart from No Deal, a new General Election (with all the risk and chaos that might come it, and the same dilemma at the end of it, anyway), or the Tories reluctantly accepting EEA for now.

    What do you expect?
    At this stage, I have no idea. I wouldn't even rule out the possibility of reaching a workable agreement with the EU.
    :) KCACO!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,275
    Mr. P, there has been years to prepare, and for contingency planning prior to the referendum itself. If I ask for a sandwich, having voted in a referendum for a sandwich, and May shoves her hand in a blender by mistake, that's a problem of executing the decision, not the decision itself.

    Mr. Sandpit, quite. The EU wants to annex UK territory, considering the territorial integrity of an actual country as more violable than that of the EU. It's a rancid, unacceptable piece of imperialist bullshit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 29,120
    The BBC secretly used personal companies to pay dozens of its richest stars £74 million in the past four years despite promising to curb the practice in 2012.

    It tried to stop The Times reporting the extent to which it channels earnings through the companies, in a move that experts said could have enabled tax avoidance of up to £20 million.

    After ignoring freedom of information requests for four months, the BBC was ordered to respond by the Information Commissioner.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/bbc-secretly-used-private-firms-to-pay-stars-millions-8q3khwwb8
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,889

    Mr. Freggles, I don't want unicorns, or even one unicorn.

    I want to leave the EU, and the customs union in particular. That doesn't seem an excessive thing for which to wish.

    It is excessive to the terms of the referendum which only ever asked the question about leaving the EU. There was no mention of leaving a/the Customs Union.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,478
    SeanT said:

    currystar said:

    Scott_P said:

    currystar said:

    we should just get it over with and walk away. British people will not accept being bullied by the EU

    If they think the British people are unhappy now, just wait until they see what "no deal" actually means.
    Nobody knows its never happened before, but we will cope
    I'm not going to pretend to know how we'll fare in any scenario, and yes, we won't all die. But *if* there is a significant downturn (or planes not flying or the rest), you can be sure that the government will get the blame. And if it's a different government in 4 years time, it will get the blame if it doesn't get fixed. "Well, you voted for it"/"the EU are beastly"/"blame the last lot" won't work (see also austerity).

    So.. I get that TMay feels the need to deliver Brexit and "not be bullied".. but she also needs to bear in mind that a more-than-marginally-sub-optimal version risks putting her successors out of power for some time.

    How's that boil-lancing going, Dave?
    I'm a Leaver but I can see that No Deal would = significant chaos, from the Irish border to all our airports to 100 mile queues at Dover. And almost certainly there would be a severe recession. Investment in the UK would likewise collapse for a few years (it is already slowing), as international capital panicked and fled. London property, and then UK property, might dive in value, further undermining consumer confidence.

    Project Fear would come true, in spades. Corbyn might then win the next election, easily. And so we become Venezuela. Fab.

    And an ageing Corbyn would very probably be replaced, quite quickly, by a much more EU friendly Labour leader who would then, at the very least, take us into the EEA, so all the pain would have been pointless. Also fab.
    I like that! Good post. I'll buy one of your books
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,956
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd have made more on the GE if Paddy Power had accepted my four hundred quid in the shop on LD seats 10-19 at 10-1 !

    Did you walk into the shop and pull out a load of used notes?
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 188
    The worst result of the election was leaving the Gov in hoc to the DUP. With a majority of 150 pliant Tories May could have sold NI down the river any time.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,275
    Mr. Ace, having a foreign body we voted to leave be in the position to dictate our trade policy without considering our national interest is clearly the antithesis of respecting the result.

    I said, for a long time, that the customs union was the only firm red line I would have, and that I was flexible on almost everything else. Staying in the customs union and pretending we're leaving the EU, when they will have the same influence (total) over our trade policy but without even having to pretend to consider our interest is contemptible.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,392
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd have made more on the GE if Paddy Power had accepted my four hundred quid in the shop on LD seats 10-19 at 10-1 !

    Did you walk into the shop and pull out a load of used notes?
    Nah they take Visa, but cash or card "exotic" bets have a limit of £50 if they're any good for the punter !
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,234
    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    It would rather we stayed in. But it respects our decision to leave. It is up to the UK, who is changing the relationship to state what long term relationship it wants. It needs to be clear whether it wants an arm length relationship (Canada +) or a close relationship (EEA/CU). The EU has made it clear, for obvious reasons, that it can't have both. (Cake and eat it.).

    When the UK has decided on the nature of the relationship, (arms length or very close), then the EU will respond with proposals on how that can be achieved.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,802
    They bravely ran away



    Seems to be just about the only thing Brexiteers are good at...
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,526
    edited June 8
    SeanT said:

    currystar said:

    Scott_P said:

    currystar said:

    we should just get it over with and walk away. British people will not accept being bullied by the EU

    If they think the British people are unhappy now, just wait until they see what "no deal" actually means.
    Nobody knows its never happened before, but we will cope
    I'm not going to pretend to know how we'll fare in any scenario, and yes, we won't all die. But *if* there is a significant downturn (or planes not flying or the rest), you can be sure that the government will get the blame. And if it's a different government in 4 years time, it will get the blame if it doesn't get fixed. "Well, you voted for it"/"the EU are beastly"/"blame the last lot" won't work (see also austerity).

    So.. I get that TMay feels the need to deliver Brexit and "not be bullied".. but she also needs to bear in mind that a more-than-marginally-sub-optimal version risks putting her successors out of power for some time.

    How's that boil-lancing going, Dave?
    I'm a Leaver but I can see that No Deal would = significant chaos, from the Irish border to all our airports to 100 mile queues at Dover. And almost certainly there would be a severe recession. Investment in the UK would likewise collapse for a few years (it is already slowing), as international capital panicked and fled. London property, and then UK property, might dive in value, further undermining consumer confidence.

    Project Fear would come true, in spades. Corbyn might then win the next election, easily. And so we become Venezuela. Fab.

    And an ageing Corbyn would very probably be replaced, quite quickly, by a much more EU friendly Labour leader who would then, at the very least, take us into the EEA, so all the pain would have been pointless. Also fab.
    You missed the zombie apocalypse!

    Barnier’s lost the plot. He effectively wants to partly annex part of our country. The EU really is a malign power?

    If “reverse Brexit” is his tactics, what’s his strategy? How on earth does he think this will foster long term goodwill between the U.K. and the EU, when millions of Brits would see voting counts for nothing when it comes to the EU?

    It’s a seriously stupid strategy being pursued for short term (possible) tactical gain.

    Still usual negotiating posturing today one hopes.


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,392
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?

    It would rather we stayed in. But it respects our decision to leave. It is up to the UK, who is changing the relationship to state what long term relationship it wants. It needs to be clear whether it wants an arm length relationship (Canada +) or a close relationship (EEA/CU). The EU has made it clear, for obvious reasons, that it can't have both. (Cake and eat it.).

    When the UK has decided on the nature of the relationship, (arms length or very close), then the EU will respond with proposals on how that can be achieved.
    Except the EU is insisting on the island of Ireland being treated as a whole. So anything beyond SM&CU automatically creates an Irish sea border which is unacceptable to Corbyn even let alone the Tories (And forget the DUP)
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,889

    Mr. Ace, having a foreign body we voted to leave be in the position to dictate our trade policy without considering our national interest is clearly the antithesis of respecting the result.

    I see the Alastair Meeks Clearly Test is highly operable here.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,090
    Freggles said:

    Can we all now agree that "they need us more than they need them" AKA the German Car Manufacturers' Gambit, has been thoroughly debunked by reality?

    And will any posters who espoused this theory have the guts to admit they got it wrong?

    One German car manufacturer disagreed with you only this week.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5810433/Audi-calls-tariff-free-trade-deal-UK-urging-EU-strike-deal.html
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