Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A handbag is needed to break Brexit’s dialogue of the deaf

13

Comments

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,374
    Barnesian said:

    Only 38% of the 52% who voted Leave think it is very important that we actually leave the EU. A further 38% think it is "quite" important. That's 19% who think it is very important that we leave the EU.

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/brexit-labour-leavers

    So to satisfy this 19% who think it is very important we leave the EU (and some of these would be happy to stay in the CU and/or SM outside the EU) DH is proposing crashing the UK economy. It's a view I suppose.

    According to a poll sample...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,180
    Mortimer said:

    Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.

    On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.

    The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.

    The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.

    That would be an unacceptable end state.

    I’m confident that the EU’s intransigence at the sensible proposal sent to them this week will solidify the Tory party. The amendments sent back from the Lords will be defeated; it’s about numbers, and the remainers don’t have ‘em...
    Unacceptable to who? You presumably, and a small minority of hard Brexiteers. Tough.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,126
    edited June 2018
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So: announce plans to hire 10,000 new customs staff, compulsory purchase some land at Dover and along key roads in Northern Ireland, separate Customs & Excise from HMRC and give it a heavyweight head, and announce plans to - as much as possible - replicate the system used on the Swiss or Norwegian border.

    Goodbye UK.
    Last time I checked 49% was not a majority and of course that is only under 45s, a clear majority of older voters in NI want to stay in the UK and not to mention voters get more conservative and supportive of the status quo as they get older.

    Plus by the time they become the majority we will probably be back in the single market and customs union anyway given under 45s in the UK support that position
    The original question was about 'how would you vote in a border poll today', which Fenton has reinvented into 'do you support a united Ireland'.

    Full data here, afaics not linked from the BBC News Article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/080618_bbcfullreport.pdf
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,378
    edited June 2018
    Very good thread header David.

    Sadly I'm not sure Theresa has it in her to give anyone a "hand-bagging".
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,374
    Barnesian said:

    Mortimer said:

    Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.

    On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.

    The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.

    The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.

    That would be an unacceptable end state.

    I’m confident that the EU’s intransigence at the sensible proposal sent to them this week will solidify the Tory party. The amendments sent back from the Lords will be defeated; it’s about numbers, and the remainers don’t have ‘em...
    Unacceptable to who? You presumably, and a small minority of hard Brexiteers. Tough.
    Unacceptable to the referendum result. Leaving the EU wasn’t short hand for ‘but letting them dictate trade policy and British regulations for time immemorial’
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,374
    Remainers think they’re riding high again, it seems. Remember the golden rule. This will come back to hurt their cause.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,180

    Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.

    On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.

    The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.

    The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.

    That is not possible. Unless the EU is willing to come up with some new way to make it happen, SM membership is only possible via EFTA membership and that precludes CU membership. It is either/or not both.
    Not necessarily IF the EU is willing to come up with some new way to make it happen (as you say) .

    SM would be possible via an EFTA type membership (UKFTA not "EFTA") modified to include a CU. It would be bespoke to the UK.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,601
    Mortimer said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mortimer said:

    Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.

    On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.

    The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.

    The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.

    That would be an unacceptable end state.

    I’m confident that the EU’s intransigence at the sensible proposal sent to them this week will solidify the Tory party. The amendments sent back from the Lords will be defeated; it’s about numbers, and the remainers don’t have ‘em...
    Unacceptable to who? You presumably, and a small minority of hard Brexiteers. Tough.
    Unacceptable to the referendum result. Leaving the EU wasn’t short hand for ‘but letting them dictate trade policy and British regulations for time immemorial’
    Trouble was it wasn’t short hand for anything. Everything is open to interpretation. That’s the problem.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,180
    Mortimer said:

    Barnesian said:

    Only 38% of the 52% who voted Leave think it is very important that we actually leave the EU. A further 38% think it is "quite" important. That's 19% who think it is very important that we leave the EU.

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/brexit-labour-leavers

    So to satisfy this 19% who think it is very important we leave the EU (and some of these would be happy to stay in the CU and/or SM outside the EU) DH is proposing crashing the UK economy. It's a view I suppose.

    According to a poll sample...
    A representative sample of a decent size. But if you want to be 100% sure, let's ask everyone in a referendum.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,461
    Barnesian said:

    Mortimer said:

    Barnesian said:

    Only 38% of the 52% who voted Leave think it is very important that we actually leave the EU. A further 38% think it is "quite" important. That's 19% who think it is very important that we leave the EU.

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/brexit-labour-leavers

    So to satisfy this 19% who think it is very important we leave the EU (and some of these would be happy to stay in the CU and/or SM outside the EU) DH is proposing crashing the UK economy. It's a view I suppose.

    According to a poll sample...
    A representative sample of a decent size. But if you want to be 100% sure, let's ask everyone in a referendum.
    But of course as we are now told, that doesn't mean we can be sure - the losing side will say people did not understand the implications, even for a set of options with less ambiguity than Brexit.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,180
    edited June 2018
    Mortimer said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mortimer said:

    Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.

    On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.

    The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.

    The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.

    That would be an unacceptable end state.

    I’m confident that the EU’s intransigence at the sensible proposal sent to them this week will solidify the Tory party. The amendments sent back from the Lords will be defeated; it’s about numbers, and the remainers don’t have ‘em...
    Unacceptable to who? You presumably, and a small minority of hard Brexiteers. Tough.
    Unacceptable to the referendum result. Leaving the EU wasn’t short hand for ‘but letting them dictate trade policy and British regulations for time immemorial’
    "Unacceptable to the referendum result" doesn't make sense. The result isn't a person. The question is "it is unacceptable to the people who voted in the referendum?". It is unacceptable to only 19% of them at most.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,374
    Barnesian said:

    Mortimer said:

    Barnesian said:

    Only 38% of the 52% who voted Leave think it is very important that we actually leave the EU. A further 38% think it is "quite" important. That's 19% who think it is very important that we leave the EU.

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/brexit-labour-leavers

    So to satisfy this 19% who think it is very important we leave the EU (and some of these would be happy to stay in the CU and/or SM outside the EU) DH is proposing crashing the UK economy. It's a view I suppose.

    According to a poll sample...
    A representative sample of a decent size. But if you want to be 100% sure, let's ask everyone in a referendum.
    After we’be inplemented the result of the last referendum, I’d be happy to have a rejoin referendum
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,731
    The government has already accepted one of the Lords amendments and is tabling half way house amendments of it's own in lieu of some others. Maybe that will satisfy both the Commons and the Lords.But one or two more rounds of Ping Pong on a smaller number of amendments would hardly be unprecidented. Even Gove himself leaked his letter complaining the government *hadn't* accepted an amendment in his area leadng to unnecessery defeat.

    I'd be astonished if May tried to bring Her Majesty into it with a flooding of peers given the 1910 precident suggests a GE first and it was losing a ' mandate ' GE that caused this situation in the first place.

    Remember as well it was May who weakened her re the Lords by going for a two year session preventing the use of the Parliament Act. Unless they went down the prorogation route which as the recent Canadian example shows might drag the Queen into it if Labour didn't play ball.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,684
    GIN1138 said:

    Very good thread header David.

    Sadly I'm not sure Theresa has it in her to give anyone a "hand-bagging".

    True , I think it is more likely , she would forget where she left her handbag.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,731
    Mortimer said:

    Remainers think they’re riding high again, it seems. Remember the golden rule. This will come back to hurt their cause.

    I don't think I'm riding high. I just think the Brexit ship is sinking fast. Unfortunately the whole country including myself will go down with it.
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,710
    edited June 2018
    philiph said:

    What we actually need is for the referendum results to be declared invalid because of cheating by both sides on expenses and untruthful statements made during the campaign

    A better and more honest statement would be as highlighted above.
    That'll do very nicely.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,229
    edited June 2018
    This 'we should have prepared for, and declared our willingness to embrace, cliff-drop Brexit' notion that has emerged recently is complete bunk. Not a single Leaver during the campaign said that Brexit would involve shredding our every link with the EU; indeed they invented a phrase for the claim by Remainers who said it might: Project Fear. So the Leavers had no choice but to maintain the cake-and-eat-it pretence until the very last. Otherwise the plebeian Leavers would have rioted, furious with their masters, who duped them into voting for their own destruction.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,469
    My Tory membership is about to expire, definitely close to calling up and cancelling after the shambles that Theresa May has presided over. She's killing out party and our chances for keeping Corbyn out of No 10.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,374
    Barnesian said:

    Mortimer said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mortimer said:

    Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.

    On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.

    The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.

    The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.

    That would be an unacceptable end state.

    I’m confident that the EU’s intransigence at the sensible proposal sent to them this week will solidify the Tory party. The amendments sent back from the Lords will be defeated; it’s about numbers, and the remainers don’t have ‘em...
    Unacceptable to who? You presumably, and a small minority of hard Brexiteers. Tough.
    Unacceptable to the referendum result. Leaving the EU wasn’t short hand for ‘but letting them dictate trade policy and British regulations for time immemorial’
    "Unacceptable to the referendum result" doesn't make sense. The result isn't a person. The question is "it is unacceptable to the people who voted in the referendum?". It is unacceptable to only 19% of them at most.
    It’s a shame you seem more concerned with pedantry than more important matters like, you know, implementing the choice of the electorate to leave the EU.

    But we’ve had this discussion before. You think you know better than the electorate, right?
  • MaxPB said:

    My Tory membership is about to expire, definitely close to calling up and cancelling after the shambles that Theresa May has presided over. She's killing out party and our chances for keeping Corbyn out of No 10.

    Brexit is doing that. Mrs May is a symptom not a cause.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,220
    Mr. Max, up to you, but there may be a relative soon leadership contest and I believe X months membership is required to have a vote.

    May's definitely a wretched leader, though. Damned shame the apparent alternative is a self-declared friend of Hamas.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,735
    edited June 2018
    My second end of the world alert in the past few days.

    The afternoon thread is a piece by me praising Mrs May, after a fashion.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 2,026
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....

    Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
    Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......
    The Labour problem is at present not so much Corbyn (nothing much has changed lately in views on him one way or the other) as that the issue of the day is Brexit, and we are unable say anything very interesting about it,.
    Why are Labour unable to say anything very interesting about it?

    I would certainly agree a 7 point lead for the Tories must surely be an outlier, but I am confused why Brexit is a problem on which Labour are unable to say anything interesting - with the shambolic path of the government it should be very easy in fact, and from the PMQ summaries Corbyn even manages to exploit that quite effectively.
    Yes, I’m surprised too. After all John Smith’s Labour was very effective at harrying the Tories over Maastricht.

    If Corbyn were to win a GE this year what would Labour do over Brexit? What would they ask for? What deal would they want? What would be their red lines? How would they meet the EU’s red lines? How would they meet Ireland’s requirements? Etc etc.

    I would be quite interested in hearing from a Labour person on this. Maybe even in a thread header?
    Although frustrated by Corbyn's ambivalence on Brexit it is difficult to argue that it is not the wisest strategy right now. There is no election pending, there is no requirement for Labour to be clear about what it would do, it's irrelevant, they aren't in a position to do anything.

    Their best strategy is to sit back and let the Tories tear themselves apart on the subject. I'm sure many Tories would love the media attention to focus on what Labour would do to distract from the shambles the Tories are making of it but they are not really obliged to fall into that trap.
  • PurplePurple Posts: 150
    edited June 2018
    MrF said:

    Good article, but... if there is a certain deafness to your position too. People voted to leave for one dominant reason, and it is not being talked about. No one cares about trade other than Brexiteer Tory politicos. Immigration is all that matters to the vast majority who voted to leave and they are going to feel betrayed come what may, as the government will inevitably backslide because the economy won't work without it.

    Political grandstanding (and the Tory fetish for 'handbags') might give the government a few good headlines, but the fundamental problem is that the populace were sold an easy answer and it doesn't exist.

    Good post. Politics in Britain is getting increasingly psycho as things come to a head.

    * People voted Leave because of concerns about immigration

    .....The government (should I say "a" government?) responds by saying "Right, we'll leave", while continuing to ignore concerns over immigration

    Oh dear. Pressure builds.

    * Politicians get all divided about what to most people is a load of old technical hoo-hah about customs and trade

    .....The government may (possibly) respond by backing down and accepting some kind of CU that is a non-CU in name only

    More pressure builds.

    In GB the consciously perceived betrayal, or at least the betrayal that people receive buzzphrases from opinion formers and channellers to talk about, is very different from the subconsciously perceived betrayal, which has eff-all to do with customs and is all about immigration.

    The repressed is bound to return, and it could happen very fast.

    * Meanwhile in Northern Ireland, the place where until recently many of the people either worshipped the red hand of Finn McCool or were away with the fairies Fianna, becomes a place where people have the realism to call a hard border what it is, rather than buying into the BS (although of course whether or not the border actually is hard or not will affect only a small proportion of the population, so I'm not saying the territory is a beacon of rationality).

    ...This is a side issue to what used to be called the Conservative and Unionist Party, except it's one that could bring down their government, not because of internal division (which is extreme), but because they lose the support of their NI friends in the bowler hats.

    За здоровье!

    image
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,229
    OllyT said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....

    Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
    Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......
    The Labour problem is at present not so much Corbyn (nothing much has changed lately in views on him one way or the other) as that the issue of the day is Brexit, and we are unable say anything very interesting about it,.
    Why are Labour unable to say anything very interesting about it?

    I would certainly agree a 7 point lead for the Tories must surely be an outlier, but I am confused why Brexit is a problem on which Labour are unable to say anything interesting - with the shambolic path of the government it should be very easy in fact, and from the PMQ summaries Corbyn even manages to exploit that quite effectively.
    Yes, I’m surprised too. After all John Smith’s Labour was very effective at harrying the Tories over Maastricht.

    If Corbyn were to win a GE this year what would Labour do over Brexit? What would they ask for? What deal would they want? What would be their red lines? How would they meet the EU’s red lines? How would they meet Ireland’s requirements? Etc etc.

    I would be quite interested in hearing from a Labour person on this. Maybe even in a thread header?
    Although frustrated by Corbyn's ambivalence on Brexit it is difficult to argue that it is not the wisest strategy right now. There is no election pending, there is no requirement for Labour to be clear about what it would do, it's irrelevant, they aren't in a position to do anything.

    Their best strategy is to sit back and let the Tories tear themselves apart on the subject. I'm sure many Tories would love the media attention to focus on what Labour would do to distract from the shambles the Tories are making of it but they are not really obliged to fall into that trap.
    Yes. Labour and the Tories had identical policies towards ERM membership and Iraq. But when they each blew up the government of the day had to carry the can. That's how it's always been.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,540

    Mortimer said:

    Remainers think they’re riding high again, it seems. Remember the golden rule. This will come back to hurt their cause.

    I don't think I'm riding high. I just think the Brexit ship is sinking fast. Unfortunately the whole country including myself will go down with it.
    Though a submarine, yellow or otherwise, is fine underwater!

    Personally, I have arranged a lifeboat so can scoff popcorn and watch.
  • PurplePurple Posts: 150
    edited June 2018


    The thing is, Leavers are democrats. If the majority in NI (or Scotland) want to leave, we would regret it, but we would never try to force them to stay, nor would we suggest that we enact revenge on the way out.

    Lolz.
    I'm jolly sure no Leaver would ever do anything uncouth in any circumstances.

    Trust the Guardian to call Alexander Nix an "evil genius". Bloody commies.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,592
    Purple said:

    @david_herdson

    "So if the course of No Deal is set then far better to bring it on now, declare the unacceptability of the EU’s current negotiating positions, terminate the talks and walk out, than wait to be ambushed by the steamroller of events in December or next year. That at least gives time to pick up the pieces."

    Not for this government it doesn't. It would fall in five minutes flat because the DUP would withdraw its confidence. WTO means hard border.

    No, I don't think they would. But they would withdraw confidence if London agreed an Irish Sea border. They also campaigned for Brexit - "we went in as one country and we will come out as one country". They wouldn't like a hard border but I think that if push really came to shove, they'd tolerate it in the short term.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Accurate analysis by David Herdson.

    Well past time for the UK to revert to WTO terms. We should have started on that basis and negotiated from there.

    If May will not do so then Boris or another leader will have to take over and do it.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,229
    But all is not lost. Theresa to hold a peace summit with the Cabinet at Chequers to thrash things out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/08/theresa-may-to-hold-peace-summit-over-brexit-white-paper

    I think I know how this will go.

    Media 'learns' that although leading pro-Brexit ministers were initially 'spitting blood, fizzing with rage, could barely be in the same room as Theresa' the Cabinet is now singing songs around the fireplace as a position of unity and strength has been agreed.

    Boris slags Theresa off.

    It all begins again.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2018
    At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.

    Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.

    Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,461
    edited June 2018
    <

    My second end of the world alert in the past few days.

    The afternoon thread is a piece by me praising Mrs May, after a fashion.

    The 'after a fashion' leads me to believe that Mrs May would likely not consider said praise to be that much of a good thing. But I imagine she will take anything she can get at the moment.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,229
    We should just rerun the referendum, but this time with two distinct choices: retain EU membership; sever all links with continental Europe and do the WTO thing. It would all be beautifully clear and simple for the public to understand. And the debate wouldn't be muddied by all that Leaver nonsense we had before about 'cake and eat it', 'my preferred option' and 'Project Fear'. Nothing succeeds like simplicity itself!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,281
    Cyclefree said:



    I would be quite interested in hearing from a Labour person on this. Maybe even in a thread header?

    Prompted by your challenge, I've written one and submitted it for possible publication.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 18,276
    Barnesian said:

    Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.

    On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.

    The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.

    The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.

    That is not possible. Unless the EU is willing to come up with some new way to make it happen, SM membership is only possible via EFTA membership and that precludes CU membership. It is either/or not both.
    Not necessarily IF the EU is willing to come up with some new way to make it happen (as you say) .

    SM would be possible via an EFTA type membership (UKFTA not "EFTA") modified to include a CU. It would be bespoke to the UK.
    But as with so many other reasonable suggestions made by both Remainers and Leavers on here, in the end the EU will always fall back on 'The rules are the rules'. I am not saying they are necessarily wrong in this although it is rather self destructive. But the bottom line is that they are not going to go anywhere near changing their rules even when it harms them as well as us.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,461

    Cyclefree said:



    I would be quite interested in hearing from a Labour person on this. Maybe even in a thread header?

    Prompted by your challenge, I've written one and submitted it for possible publication.
    That was quick!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,461

    Barnesian said:

    Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.

    On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.

    The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.

    The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.

    That is not possible. Unless the EU is willing to come up with some new way to make it happen, SM membership is only possible via EFTA membership and that precludes CU membership. It is either/or not both.
    Not necessarily IF the EU is willing to come up with some new way to make it happen (as you say) .

    SM would be possible via an EFTA type membership (UKFTA not "EFTA") modified to include a CU. It would be bespoke to the UK.
    But as with so many other reasonable suggestions made by both Remainers and Leavers on here, in the end the EU will always fall back on 'The rules are the rules'. I am not saying they are necessarily wrong in this although it is rather self destructive. But the bottom line is that they are not going to go anywhere near changing their rules even when it harms them as well as us.
    They are in favour of cherry picking and bespoke arrangements, except when they aren't.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,378

    We should just rerun the referendum, but this time with two distinct choices: retain EU membership; sever all links with continental Europe and do the WTO thing. It would all be beautifully clear and simple for the public to understand. And the debate wouldn't be muddied by all that Leaver nonsense we had before about 'cake and eat it', 'my preferred option' and 'Project Fear'. Nothing succeeds like simplicity itself!


    What would you do if a majority still voted to leave?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,229
    GIN1138 said:

    We should just rerun the referendum, but this time with two distinct choices: retain EU membership; sever all links with continental Europe and do the WTO thing. It would all be beautifully clear and simple for the public to understand. And the debate wouldn't be muddied by all that Leaver nonsense we had before about 'cake and eat it', 'my preferred option' and 'Project Fear'. Nothing succeeds like simplicity itself!


    What would you do if a majority still voted to leave?
    I'd except it with good grace. The current chaos is starting to amount to a national humiliation. Although, of course, those who advocated that position would have to own the inevitable political and economic consequences.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,180

    At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.

    Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.

    Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.

    I think Boris is the only person who can lead the Tory party to an overall majority in the event of a snap election. He still has an appeal to the man or woman in the street who does not have an interest in detailed policies. He is the Trump figure.

    I can't imagine the current favourites (Gove and Rees- Mogg) having that wide appeal. I'm sure Tory MPS can see this too (and probably so can Gove and Rees-Mogg). That's why I'm backing Boris as next Tory leader in spite of his obvious flaws. Trump's obvious flaws didn't prevent him winning first the primaries and then the election.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,684
    Barnesian said:

    At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.

    Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.

    Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.

    I think Boris is the only person who can lead the Tory party to an overall majority in the event of a snap election. He still has an appeal to the man or woman in the street who does not have an interest in detailed policies. He is the Trump figure.

    I can't imagine the current favourites (Gove and Rees- Mogg) having that wide appeal. I'm sure Tory MPS can see this too (and probably so can Gove and Rees-Mogg). That's why I'm backing Boris as next Tory leader in spite of his obvious flaws. Trump's obvious flaws didn't prevent him winning first the primaries and then the election.
    I agree , Boris IMO , would get Cameron's majority back in a snap election.

    Gove does not deserve any support , the way he conducted himself , in the last Conservative leadership race.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 1,630
    rcs1000 said:

    Can I just say "Wow".

    I published my video on the oil price yesterday morning (LA time), mentioned it on here, and posted a tweet.

    Said tweet has now got 180 odd likes, and a large number of retweets. My piece on trade deficits also saw its views shoot up, as people who saw my oil piece watched the trade deficit piece too.

    If there's anyone on here who hasn't seen either of my last two pieces, they're here:





    And now, to bed.

    Really interesting videos. Thanks very much.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,684

    MaxPB said:

    My Tory membership is about to expire, definitely close to calling up and cancelling after the shambles that Theresa May has presided over. She's killing out party and our chances for keeping Corbyn out of No 10.

    Brexit is doing that. Mrs May is a symptom not a cause.
    She nominated herself to be the Brexit in cheif leader.

    Trouble is she could not lead an orderly exit , out of downing Street , in a fire drill.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,582


    History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class

    1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)

    2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.

    3. 9/11 was an inside job.

    wow just wow.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 549

    Alistair said:

    Mr. Meeks, to be fair, it's probably not the worst design 'genius' decision lately.

    This is Carcassonne, in the south of France:



    And this is what some damned fool modern artist did to it:

    Not to forgive the vandalism but you do know it is not medieval? It was rebuilt by the French in the 19th century and is effectively a Disney castle.
    Yes, complaining about Carcassonne being modified is hilarious given the utterly ahistoric 'restoration' done to it. As you look up the walls you can see the dramatic change from original stonework to the new perfectly dressed stone and purely decorative 'battlements'.

    And those peaked roof turrets, utter fantasy.
    I love Eilean Donan castle on the Scottish west coast. It is picture-perfect from the outside, in a superb setting. Yet I know it's all an Edwardian fiction, rebuilt after the Royal Navy bombarded the original castle from the sea in the early 1700s.

    I know it's a pastiche, but I can't help but love it.

    And if anyone tried to deface it, I'd be the first on the barricades. Fortunately the Royal Navy probably could not spare three boats nowadays ... ;)
    Or even choose the right sort of vessel....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-11605365
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,469

    MaxPB said:

    My Tory membership is about to expire, definitely close to calling up and cancelling after the shambles that Theresa May has presided over. She's killing out party and our chances for keeping Corbyn out of No 10.

    Brexit is doing that. Mrs May is a symptom not a cause.
    No, Mrs May's insipid leadership is doing that.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,582
    GIN1138 said:

    We should just rerun the referendum, but this time with two distinct choices: retain EU membership; sever all links with continental Europe and do the WTO thing. It would all be beautifully clear and simple for the public to understand. And the debate wouldn't be muddied by all that Leaver nonsense we had before about 'cake and eat it', 'my preferred option' and 'Project Fear'. Nothing succeeds like simplicity itself!


    What would you do if a majority still voted to leave?
    Whinge like feck and call for a 3rd referendum?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,749

    At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.

    Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.

    Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.

    What is it about his self-defeating cowardice in challenging May that makes you think he has these qualities?
  • saddosaddo Posts: 532
    Floater said:



    History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class

    1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)

    2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.

    3. 9/11 was an inside job.

    wow just wow.

    Should be sacked on the spot.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,281
    edited June 2018
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:



    I would be quite interested in hearing from a Labour person on this. Maybe even in a thread header?

    Prompted by your challenge, I've written one and submitted it for possible publication.
    That was quick!
    It's a sort of 80-20 rule. I write stuff quickly, which has been useful over the years, and it's usually about 80% OK. If I then sit down for two hours and polish it carefully, it never really gets any better.

    PS TSE says he'll use it - should be up tomorrow morning.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,058
    Floater said:



    History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class

    1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)

    2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.

    3. 9/11 was an inside job.

    wow just wow.

    Have you reported him/her - that isn't history that's indoctrination!

    Still it's no wonder so many young people voted remain....!!
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,058
    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    We should just rerun the referendum, but this time with two distinct choices: retain EU membership; sever all links with continental Europe and do the WTO thing. It would all be beautifully clear and simple for the public to understand. And the debate wouldn't be muddied by all that Leaver nonsense we had before about 'cake and eat it', 'my preferred option' and 'Project Fear'. Nothing succeeds like simplicity itself!


    What would you do if a majority still voted to leave?
    Whinge like feck and call for a 3rd referendum?
    A very apt Irish turn of phrase! They are of course used to multiple referendums if the people don't vote the right way the first time round.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 532
    It's been pretty obvious from day 1 that the EU is only interested in the UK paying over as big a fine as possible for leaving and screwing up the UK economy to discourage anyone else leaving.

    Under May, the UK has tried to actually negotiate in good faith.

    We need Trump like balls of steel now to play hardball. Walk away, no money, aggressive change to UK corporate tax structure to attract every business coming to Europe to move to the UK, propose huge import taxes on German cars and so on.

    Otherwise the EU will just continue to take the piss.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,618
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families

    Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.

    The horror.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,432
    Floater said:



    History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class

    1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)

    2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.

    3. 9/11 was an inside job.

    wow just wow.

    Have you contacted the school?
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 768
    brendan16 said:

    Floater said:



    History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class

    1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)

    2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.

    3. 9/11 was an inside job.

    wow just wow.

    Have you reported him/her - that isn't history that's indoctrination!

    Still it's no wonder so many young people voted remain....!!
    Sounds like your average British University Professor......
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,735
    edited June 2018
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families

    Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.

    The horror.

    I was really disappointed by the au pair I hired.

    A certain niche genre of films had ruined my expectations on just exactly what au pairs are willing to do.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,618

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families

    Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.

    The horror.

    I was really disappointed by the au pair I hired.

    A certain niche genre of films had ruined my expectations on just exactly what au pairs willing to do.
    :D
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 768
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So: announce plans to hire 10,000 new customs staff, compulsory purchase some land at Dover and along key roads in Northern Ireland, separate Customs & Excise from HMRC and give it a heavyweight head, and announce plans to - as much as possible - replicate the system used on the Swiss or Norwegian border.

    Goodbye UK.
    Last time I checked 49% was not a majority
    Um - are you sure you want to go with that stance?
    Because neither was 37.5%.

    But 49-38 on a turnout of 87% turns into a 56.3-43.7 win, much like 37.5-34.7 on a turnout of 72.2% turns into a 51.9-48.1 win.

    Those who don't know/don't care/ don't vote have no impact on the outcome and are usually disregarded. I've always seen the "but a majority of all voters didn't vote Leave!" cry as being invalid, personally, and this argument is closely related.
    Ipsos Mori (who polled about the same time) showed about 70/30 in favour of staying in the UK. I wonder why the numbers diverge so much.
    This is under 45's.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 596

    At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.

    Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.

    Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.

    The solution to the situation cannot be Boris. He is the cause of the mess we are in.
  • Fenman said:

    At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.

    Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.

    Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.

    The solution to the situation cannot be Boris. He is the cause of the mess we are in.
    Indeed. It’d be like appointing Lord Halifax as Chamberlain’s successor.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,126
    edited June 2018
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families

    Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.

    The horror.

    Oh dear. And the Guardian has worked so long and hard to imbue the idea that Brexit is anti-foreigner.

    Perhaps that can mitigate it by setting up some wind turbines in the whirlwind they are reaping, and work less hard to find cheap, tax-avoiding people to employ.

    Officially, au pairs are unlikely to be classed as a worker or an employee. They aren’t entitled to the minimum wage or paid holidays, and are usually exempt from paying income tax and national insurance.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,602
    Yorkcity said:

    Barnesian said:

    At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.

    Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.

    Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.

    I think Boris is the only person who can lead the Tory party to an overall majority in the event of a snap election. He still has an appeal to the man or woman in the street who does not have an interest in detailed policies. He is the Trump figure.

    I can't imagine the current favourites (Gove and Rees- Mogg) having that wide appeal. I'm sure Tory MPS can see this too (and probably so can Gove and Rees-Mogg). That's why I'm backing Boris as next Tory leader in spite of his obvious flaws. Trump's obvious flaws didn't prevent him winning first the primaries and then the election.
    I agree , Boris IMO , would get Cameron's majority back in a snap election.

    Gove does not deserve any support , the way he conducted himself , in the last Conservative leadership race.
    I am very wary when non-conservatives suggest their best election winning leader and more so when the name is Bojo!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,180
    Fenman said:

    At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.

    Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.

    Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.

    The solution to the situation cannot be Boris. He is the cause of the mess we are in.
    The solution to the situation should not be Boris. He is the cause of the mess we are in.

    "Should not" doesn't mean "cannot".
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,602
    Floater said:



    History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class

    1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)

    2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.

    3. 9/11 was an inside job.

    wow just wow.

    You should make an urgent appointment with the Head.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,602
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families

    Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.

    The horror.

    I was really disappointed by the au pair I hired.

    A certain niche genre of films had ruined my expectations on just exactly what au pairs willing to do.
    :D
    You mean you didn’t like his legs?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,180
    felix said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Barnesian said:

    At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.

    Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.

    Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.

    I think Boris is the only person who can lead the Tory party to an overall majority in the event of a snap election. He still has an appeal to the man or woman in the street who does not have an interest in detailed policies. He is the Trump figure.

    I can't imagine the current favourites (Gove and Rees- Mogg) having that wide appeal. I'm sure Tory MPS can see this too (and probably so can Gove and Rees-Mogg). That's why I'm backing Boris as next Tory leader in spite of his obvious flaws. Trump's obvious flaws didn't prevent him winning first the primaries and then the election.
    I agree , Boris IMO , would get Cameron's majority back in a snap election.

    Gove does not deserve any support , the way he conducted himself , in the last Conservative leadership race.
    I am very wary when non-conservatives suggest their best election winning leader and more so when the name is Bojo!
    If I were being Machiavellian, I'd be promoting Rees-Mogg as next Tory leader! I genuinely think Boris could do a Trump. Clearly he thinks the same.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,229
    Floater said:



    History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class

    1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)

    2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.

    3. 9/11 was an inside job.

    wow just wow.

    Seriously, it's your duty to inform the school of this and, if adequate action isn't taken, authorities further up the chain. Apart from the obvious duty of care towards the students, the teacher clearly needs help. Sounds as if he or she is having some kind of breakdown.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,861

    Fenman said:

    At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.

    Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.

    Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.

    The solution to the situation cannot be Boris. He is the cause of the mess we are in.
    Indeed. It’d be like appointing Lord Halifax as Chamberlain’s successor.
    It would be exactly like appointing Winston Churchill as Chamberlain's successor. Churchill was the architect of the Norway Campaign which led directly to Chamberlain's downfall.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,723
    felix said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Barnesian said:

    At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.

    Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.

    Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.

    I think Boris is the only person who can lead the Tory party to an overall majority in the event of a snap election. He still has an appeal to the man or woman in the street who does not have an interest in detailed policies. He is the Trump figure.

    I can't imagine the current favourites (Gove and Rees- Mogg) having that wide appeal. I'm sure Tory MPS can see this too (and probably so can Gove and Rees-Mogg). That's why I'm backing Boris as next Tory leader in spite of his obvious flaws. Trump's obvious flaws didn't prevent him winning first the primaries and then the election.
    I agree , Boris IMO , would get Cameron's majority back in a snap election.

    Gove does not deserve any support , the way he conducted himself , in the last Conservative leadership race.
    I am very wary when non-conservatives suggest their best election winning leader and more so when the name is Bojo!
    By the same token my view of the most winnable possibility is Lab under Starmer or Thornberry advocating something pink and fluffy EU-wise.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,684
    felix said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Barnesian said:

    At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.

    Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.

    Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.

    I think Boris is the only person who can lead the Tory party to an overall majority in the event of a snap election. He still has an appeal to the man or woman in the street who does not have an interest in detailed policies. He is the Trump figure.

    I can't imagine the current favourites (Gove and Rees- Mogg) having that wide appeal. I'm sure Tory MPS can see this too (and probably so can Gove and Rees-Mogg). That's why I'm backing Boris as next Tory leader in spite of his obvious flaws. Trump's obvious flaws didn't prevent him winning first the primaries and then the election.
    I agree , Boris IMO , would get Cameron's majority back in a snap election.

    Gove does not deserve any support , the way he conducted himself , in the last Conservative leadership race.
    I am very wary when non-conservatives suggest their best election winning leader and more so when the name is Bojo!
    True , however he is a proven winner in London.Also Cameron was desperate to get him on board in the referendum campaign.Rightly so in my opinion, for all his faults , he is a dangerous opponent.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,179

    Floater said:



    History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class

    1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)

    2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.

    3. 9/11 was an inside job.

    wow just wow.

    Seriously, it's your duty to inform the school of this and, if adequate action isn't taken, authorities further up the chain. Apart from the obvious duty of care towards the students, the teacher clearly needs help. Sounds as if he or she is having some kind of breakdown.
    So the teacher is a Corbynista?
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,602
    Barnesian said:

    felix said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Barnesian said:

    At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.

    Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.

    Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.

    I think Boris is the only person who can lead the Tory party to an overall majority in the event of a snap election. He still has an appeal to the man or woman in the street who does not have an interest in detailed policies. He is the Trump figure.

    I can't imagine the current favourites (Gove and Rees- Mogg) having that wide appeal. I'm sure Tory MPS can see this too (and probably so can Gove and Rees-Mogg). That's why I'm backing Boris as next Tory leader in spite of his obvious flaws. Trump's obvious flaws didn't prevent him winning first the primaries and then the election.
    I agree , Boris IMO , would get Cameron's majority back in a snap election.

    Gove does not deserve any support , the way he conducted himself , in the last Conservative leadership race.
    I am very wary when non-conservatives suggest their best election winning leader and more so when the name is Bojo!
    If I were being Machiavellian, I'd be promoting Rees-Mogg as next Tory leader! I genuinely think Boris could do a Trump. Clearly he thinks the same.
    A Javid /Gove ticket would do the job, win a GE and piss off the left - wntk?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,723
    Floater said:



    History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class

    1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)

    2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.

    3. 9/11 was an inside job.

    wow just wow.

    How old is your son?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,375
    Thank you, David, a really interesting read.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,619
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families

    Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.

    The horror.

    This surely has to be a Brexiteer double agent trying to make Remain look ridiculous.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,861
    Barnesian said:

    felix said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Barnesian said:

    At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.

    Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.

    Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.

    I think Boris is the only person who can lead the Tory party to an overall majority in the event of a snap election. He still has an appeal to the man or woman in the street who does not have an interest in detailed policies. He is the Trump figure.

    I can't imagine the current favourites (Gove and Rees- Mogg) having that wide appeal. I'm sure Tory MPS can see this too (and probably so can Gove and Rees-Mogg). That's why I'm backing Boris as next Tory leader in spite of his obvious flaws. Trump's obvious flaws didn't prevent him winning first the primaries and then the election.
    I agree , Boris IMO , would get Cameron's majority back in a snap election.

    Gove does not deserve any support , the way he conducted himself , in the last Conservative leadership race.
    I am very wary when non-conservatives suggest their best election winning leader and more so when the name is Bojo!
    If I were being Machiavellian, I'd be promoting Rees-Mogg as next Tory leader! I genuinely think Boris could do a Trump. Clearly he thinks the same.
    If I were being Machiavellian, I'd wonder why Boris chucked his dead cat on the table at the perfect time to help Theresa May and hurt the Davis-Mogg axis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,980
    edited June 2018
    Just finished in Lewisham East for final push with James Cleverly and Mark Field ahead of Thursday's by election. Good number of Tories out, saw plenty of LDs too (their HQ was nearby) plus some UKIP and Christian Peoples' Alliance deliverers.

    Diane Abbott was also apparently out and about with Labour workers
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 1,408

    Mr. Submarine, staying in the single market and customs union is not respecting the referendum result and would store up massive trouble for the Conservatives (and perhaps wider political class).

    It'd be unsurprising to have a new Farage-Banks party pretty rapidly, and one with a ready and willing base of voters who are less than thrilled at being treated with contempt by the Establishment.

    Mr Dancer, forgive me, but this does line of argument does strike me as being more exacerbating the problem than solving it. It is, however, natural and human to want the referendum result to give one the Brexit one most wants.

    However, the referendum result was to leave the EU. Everything else is interpretation, gloss, spin, call it what you will.

    If EEA/EFTA membership were an artificial construct created solely for the purpose of our exit, then the stance would be eminently defensible, but it's a category that has existed for a long time and has a number of members.
    Or if EEA/EFTA membership was commonly regarded as synonymous with EU membership (different only by a technicality), then I would also agree. But it's not. In fact, Norway has twice asked its people if they would like to transition from EEA to EU and twice have they rejected it. There are therefore millions of people who see the two states as significantly different in essence as well as in name.

    It can be argued that EEA membership would not comply with all the promises of the Leave campaign, nor the threats of the Remain campaign. It is true, but then again, nothing could fully comply with said promises and threats. All forms of Brexit would therefore not respect the referendum result (neither, of course, would not Brexiting), and the argument becomes moot.

    Polls indicate immigration is a key element (Polls also indicated we would stay in, of course). Polls indicate that Single Market membership with increased control of immigration is the most palatable Brexit to the people. We could always try actually exercising the controls on immigration that are already permitted in Single Market membership but that we don't actually do.

    And, of course, exercise of Articles 112-113 of the EEA Agreement is always an option.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,601

    Mr. Submarine, staying in the single market and customs union is not respecting the referendum result and would store up massive trouble for the Conservatives (and perhaps wider political class).

    It'd be unsurprising to have a new Farage-Banks party pretty rapidly, and one with a ready and willing base of voters who are less than thrilled at being treated with contempt by the Establishment.

    Mr Dancer, forgive me, but this does line of argument does strike me as being more exacerbating the problem than solving it. It is, however, natural and human to want the referendum result to give one the Brexit one most wants.

    However, the referendum result was to leave the EU. Everything else is interpretation, gloss, spin, call it what you will.

    If EEA/EFTA membership were an artificial construct created solely for the purpose of our exit, then the stance would be eminently defensible, but it's a category that has existed for a long time and has a number of members.
    Or if EEA/EFTA membership was commonly regarded as synonymous with EU membership (different only by a technicality), then I would also agree. But it's not. In fact, Norway has twice asked its people if they would like to transition from EEA to EU and twice have they rejected it. There are therefore millions of people who see the two states as significantly different in essence as well as in name.

    It can be argued that EEA membership would not comply with all the promises of the Leave campaign, nor the threats of the Remain campaign. It is true, but then again, nothing could fully comply with said promises and threats. All forms of Brexit would therefore not respect the referendum result (neither, of course, would not Brexiting), and the argument becomes moot.

    Polls indicate immigration is a key element (Polls also indicated we would stay in, of course). Polls indicate that Single Market membership with increased control of immigration is the most palatable Brexit to the people. We could always try actually exercising the controls on immigration that are already permitted in Single Market membership but that we don't actually do.

    And, of course, exercise of Articles 112-113 of the EEA Agreement is always an option.
    Another excellent post.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,281
    HYUFD said:

    Just finished in Lewisham East for final push with James Cleverly and Mark Field ahead of Thursday's by election. Good number of Tories out, saw plenty of LDs too (their HQ was nearby) plus some UKIP and Christian Peoples' Alliance deliverers.

    Diane Abbott was also apparently out and about with Labour workers

    Hmm. Had no requests from the party to go and help in this one and had quite forgotten it. Over-confidence, sensible targeting (it'd be a 90-minute drive), or just everything in hand?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,257

    Floater said:



    History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class

    1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)

    2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.

    3. 9/11 was an inside job.

    wow just wow.

    Seriously, it's your duty to inform the school of this and, if adequate action isn't taken, authorities further up the chain. Apart from the obvious duty of care towards the students, the teacher clearly needs help. Sounds as if he or she is having some kind of breakdown.
    + 1 for that - don't ingore this.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 1,408
    I have found myself wondering what I would do if I were in charge of implementing Brexit. This might be the result:

    - We announce we will apply to join EEA/EFTA and the Single Market, noting that this places us outside of 70-80% or so of EU law, the CAP, CFP, etc, and we will apply all existing controls that are permitted on Freedom of Movement (and that we don't already apply). This also significantly reduces our gross payments to the EU; all savings being directed towards the NHS.

    - We aim to sign the EEA Agreement as soon as possible. As this is an "off-the-peg" Agreement that needs minimal negotiation, we can therefore complete the Article 50 withdrawal as soon as it is done - we don't need to run the clock out for the two years. In short, we will then be out of the EU (and requiring an explicit application and negotiation to rejoin, if we ever want to do so) far sooner.

    - All European Nationals resident in the UK prior to the referendum will be offered UK Citizenship and rights.

    - We announce that we will subject this outcome to a referendum (I hate these now, but I feel it is necessary to close the subject off: it started with a referendum saying "do something" and should finish with one saying "Yes, that something will do") after five years. This will give the people long enough to judge whether or not the outcome is acceptable without being kicked into the long grass. I understand that no Parliament can bind its successor, but by passing the preliminary legislation and announcing the date, any future Parliament would have to explicitly renege on it to prevent it. The Government will campaign to remain inside the EEA.

    - Should the level of immigration under FoM, even after full exercise of the standard existing powers, be sufficiently high as to cause continuing economic and/or political issues, we will exercise Articles 112-113 of the EEA Agreement until those issues are resolved (eg housing crisis).

    For Leavers - this gets us out more rapidly and removes the opportunity for anyone to take their Brexit away. There would be no "Remain"; we'd already be outside the EU. We would have to explicitly rejoin to undo it. It provides a minimum disruption Brexit as well, and retains the option to go even further in the direction of Hard Brexit

    For Remainers, it provides maximum European co-operation still in compliance with the referendum result, retains the Single Market, minimises disruption, provides a Peoples' Vote of some description, removes concern over resident EU Nationals in the UK, and keeps us as close as possible to the EU.

    For everyone else, it stops all the disruption, provides minimal economic dislocation, provides the quickest possible certainty going forwards, and hopefully shuts up all the obsessives on both sides.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,602
    HYUFD said:

    Just finished in Lewisham East for final push with James Cleverly and Mark Field ahead of Thursday's by election. Good number of Tories out, saw plenty of LDs too (their HQ was nearby) plus some UKIP and Christian Peoples' Alliance deliverers.

    Diane Abbott was also apparently out and about with Labour workers

    Which constituency was Diane working? :)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,540
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families

    Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.

    The horror.

    Jesting aside, it is a significant issue. One of my junior doctors is a single mum, and had to go part time because of being unable to replace her Au pair for 9 months. It seems impossible to get even fairly useless ones like her last.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,374

    Mr. Submarine, staying in the single market and customs union is not respecting the referendum result and would store up massive trouble for the Conservatives (and perhaps wider political class).

    It'd be unsurprising to have a new Farage-Banks party pretty rapidly, and one with a ready and willing base of voters who are less than thrilled at being treated with contempt by the Establishment.

    Mr Dancer, forgive me, but this does line of argument does strike me as being more exacerbating the problem than solving it. It is, however, natural and human to want the referendum result to give one the Brexit one most wants.

    However, the referendum result was to leave the EU. Everything else is interpretation, gloss, spin, call it what you will.

    If EEA/EFTA membership were an artificial construct created solely for the purpose of our exit, then the stance would be eminently defensible, but it's a category that has existed for a long time and has a number of members.
    Or if EEA/EFTA membership was commonly regarded as synonymous with EU membership (different only by a technicality), then I would also agree. But it's not. In fact, Norway has twice asked its people if they would like to transition from EEA to EU and twice have they rejected it. There are therefore millions of people who see the two states as significantly different in essence as well as in name.

    It can be argued that EEA membership would not comply with all the promises of the Leave campaign, nor the threats of the Remain campaign. It is true, but then again, nothing could fully comply with said promises and threats. All forms of Brexit would therefore not respect the referendum result (neither, of course, would not Brexiting), and the argument becomes moot.

    Polls indicate immigration is a key element (Polls also indicated we would stay in, of course). Polls indicate that Single Market membership with increased control of immigration is the most palatable Brexit to the people. We could always try actually exercising the controls on immigration that are already permitted in Single Market membership but that we don't actually do.

    And, of course, exercise of Articles 112-113 of the EEA Agreement is always an option.
    EEA/EFTA is outside of the Customs union.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 768
    Labour are going to hold Lewisham East easily.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,404
    nunuone said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So: announce plans to hire 10,000 new customs staff, compulsory purchase some land at Dover and along key roads in Northern Ireland, separate Customs & Excise from HMRC and give it a heavyweight head, and announce plans to - as much as possible - replicate the system used on the Swiss or Norwegian border.

    Goodbye UK.
    Last time I checked 49% was not a majority
    Um - are you sure you want to go with that stance?
    Because neither was 37.5%.

    But 49-38 on a turnout of 87% turns into a 56.3-43.7 win, much like 37.5-34.7 on a turnout of 72.2% turns into a 51.9-48.1 win.

    Those who don't know/don't care/ don't vote have no impact on the outcome and are usually disregarded. I've always seen the "but a majority of all voters didn't vote Leave!" cry as being invalid, personally, and this argument is closely related.
    Ipsos Mori (who polled about the same time) showed about 70/30 in favour of staying in the UK. I wonder why the numbers diverge so much.
    This is under 45's.
    No, the sample as a whole split 45/42 pro-Union. Ipsos Mori had 51/21, and Delta Poll for Policy Exchange had 59/23.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,618
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families

    Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.

    The horror.

    Jesting aside, it is a significant issue. One of my junior doctors is a single mum, and had to go part time because of being unable to replace her Au pair for 9 months. It seems impossible to get even fairly useless ones like her last.
    Vanilla message for you.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,404
    edited June 2018

    I have found myself wondering what I would do if I were in charge of implementing Brexit. This might be the result:

    - We announce we will apply to join EEA/EFTA and the Single Market, noting that this places us outside of 70-80% or so of EU law, the CAP, CFP, etc, and we will apply all existing controls that are permitted on Freedom of Movement (and that we don't already apply). This also significantly reduces our gross payments to the EU; all savings being directed towards the NHS.

    - We aim to sign the EEA Agreement as soon as possible. As this is an "off-the-peg" Agreement that needs minimal negotiation, we can therefore complete the Article 50 withdrawal as soon as it is done - we don't need to run the clock out for the two years. In short, we will then be out of the EU (and requiring an explicit application and negotiation to rejoin, if we ever want to do so) far sooner.

    - All European Nationals resident in the UK prior to the referendum will be offered UK Citizenship and rights.

    - We announce that we will subject this outcome to a referendum (I hate these now, but I feel it is necessary to close the subject off: it started with a referendum saying "do something" and should finish with one saying "Yes, that something will do") after five years. This will give the people long enough to judge whether or not the outcome is acceptable without being kicked into the long grass. I understand that no Parliament can bind its successor, but by passing the preliminary legislation and announcing the date, any future Parliament would have to explicitly renege on it to prevent it. The Government will campaign to remain inside the EEA.

    - Should the level of immigration under FoM, even after full exercise of the standard existing powers, be sufficiently high as to cause continuing economic and/or political issues, we will exercise Articles 112-113 of the EEA Agreement until those issues are resolved (eg housing crisis).

    For Leavers - this gets us out more rapidly and removes the opportunity for anyone to take their Brexit away. There would be no "Remain"; we'd already be outside the EU. We would have to explicitly rejoin to undo it. It provides a minimum disruption Brexit as well, and retains the option to go even further in the direction of Hard Brexit

    For Remainers, it provides maximum European co-operation still in compliance with the referendum result, retains the Single Market, minimises disruption, provides a Peoples' Vote of some description, removes concern over resident EU Nationals in the UK, and keeps us as close as possible to the EU.

    For everyone else, it stops all the disruption, provides minimal economic dislocation, provides the quickest possible certainty going forwards, and hopefully shuts up all the obsessives on both sides.

    It would would work for me.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,207
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families

    Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.

    The horror.

    I think this is peak Guardian.

    Why didn’t Remain campaign on the servant shortage that Brexit has inevitably triggered? It would have resonated so well in Hartlepool and Stoke.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,980
    edited June 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Just finished in Lewisham East for final push with James Cleverly and Mark Field ahead of Thursday's by election. Good number of Tories out, saw plenty of LDs too (their HQ was nearby) plus some UKIP and Christian Peoples' Alliance deliverers.

    Diane Abbott was also apparently out and about with Labour workers

    Hmm. Had no requests from the party to go and help in this one and had quite forgotten it. Over-confidence, sensible targeting (it'd be a 90-minute drive), or just everything in hand?
    I expect Labour will hold it but where I was I saw more LD activists than Labour activists (though a few Labour posters too). Tory vote was holding OK but there was definitely some Labour to LD switching
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,980
    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just finished in Lewisham East for final push with James Cleverly and Mark Field ahead of Thursday's by election. Good number of Tories out, saw plenty of LDs too (their HQ was nearby) plus some UKIP and Christian Peoples' Alliance deliverers.

    Diane Abbott was also apparently out and about with Labour workers

    Which constituency was Diane working? :)
    Knowing her Lewisham Deptford!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,404
    RoyalBlue said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families

    Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.

    The horror.

    I think this is peak Guardian.

    Why didn’t Remain campaign on the servant shortage that Brexit has inevitably triggered? It would have resonated so well in Hartlepool and Stoke.
    The recent case of a French au pair being tortured to death by her employers must be a big deterrent.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,126
    Sean_F said:


    - We announce we will apply to join EEA/EFTA and the Single Market, noting that this places us outside of 70-80% or so of EU law, the CAP, CFP, etc, and we will apply all existing controls that are permitted on Freedom of Movement (and that we don't already apply). This also significantly reduces our gross payments to the EU; all savings being directed towards the NHS.

    - We aim to sign the EEA Agreement as soon as possible. As this is an "off-the-peg" Agreement that needs minimal negotiation, we can therefore complete the Article 50 withdrawal as soon as it is done - we don't need to run the clock out for the two years. In short, we will then be out of the EU (and requiring an explicit application and negotiation to rejoin, if we ever want to do so) far sooner.

    - All European Nationals resident in the UK prior to the referendum will be offered UK Citizenship and rights.

    - We announce that we will subject this outcome to a referendum (I hate these now, but I feel it is necessary to close the subject off: it started with a referendum saying "do something" and should finish with one saying "Yes, that something will do") after five years. This will give the people long enough to judge whether or not the outcome is acceptable without being kicked into the long grass. I understand that no Parliament can bind its successor, but by passing the preliminary legislation and announcing the date, any future Parliament would have to explicitly renege on it to prevent it. The Government will campaign to remain inside the EEA.

    - Should the level of immigration under FoM, even after full exercise of the standard existing powers, be sufficiently high as to cause continuing economic and/or political issues, we will exercise Articles 112-113 of the EEA Agreement until those issues are resolved (eg housing crisis).

    For Leavers - this gets us out more rapidly and removes the opportunity for anyone to take their Brexit away. There would be no "Remain"; we'd already be outside the EU. We would have to explicitly rejoin to undo it. It provides a minimum disruption Brexit as well, and retains the option to go even further in the direction of Hard Brexit

    For Remainers, it provides maximum European co-operation still in compliance with the referendum result, retains the Single Market, minimises disruption, provides a Peoples' Vote of some description, removes concern over resident EU Nationals in the UK, and keeps us as close as possible to the EU.

    For everyone else, it stops all the disruption, provides minimal economic dislocation, provides the quickest possible certainty going forwards, and hopefully shuts up all the obsessives on both sides.

    It would would work for me.
    What's the PB maxim - it's a view !

    One which I probably would support.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,374
    RoyalBlue said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families

    Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.

    The horror.

    I think this is peak Guardian.

    Why didn’t Remain campaign on the servant shortage that Brexit has inevitably triggered? It would have resonated so well in Hartlepool and Stoke.
    I’m sure that higher wages will encourage more au pairs.

    Oh, but of course, Remainers don’t like that idea do they - as we heard during the referendum...
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,619
    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families

    Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.

    The horror.

    I think this is peak Guardian.

    Why didn’t Remain campaign on the servant shortage that Brexit has inevitably triggered? It would have resonated so well in Hartlepool and Stoke.
    The recent case of a French au pair being tortured to death by her employers must be a big deterrent.
    The French au pair who was tortured to death by French nationals living in London.

    Whilst I am sure that is an extreme and unusual case, it does illustrate the helplessness of au pairs with little money dependent on fickle and domineering employers.

    If Brexit reduces this kind of organised slavery, that is another plus in its favour.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,980
    The transition period is set to end by the time the general election is due in 2022 anyway
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,229
    I see the now familiar refrain of 'the government should have prepared for no deal' is trotted out.
This discussion has been closed.