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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A handbag is needed to break Brexit’s dialogue of the deaf

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  • sladeslade Posts: 694
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just finished in Lewisham East for final push with James Cleverly and Mark Field ahead of Thursday's by election. Good number of Tories out, saw plenty of LDs too (their HQ was nearby) plus some UKIP and Christian Peoples' Alliance deliverers.

    Diane Abbott was also apparently out and about with Labour workers

    Hmm. Had no requests from the party to go and help in this one and had quite forgotten it. Over-confidence, sensible targeting (it'd be a 90-minute drive), or just everything in hand?
    I expect Labour will hold it but where I was I saw more LD activists than Labour activists (though a few Labour posters too). Tory vote was holding OK but there was definitely some Labour to LD switching
    There seems to be a growing excitement in the Lib Dem ranks. Vince Cable was there today for the 7th time. It may be that many new members in London have not experienced a by election like this before but the enthusiasm can be infectious. Could it be another Greenwich?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,753
    RoyalBlue said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families

    Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.

    The horror.

    I think this is peak Guardian.

    Why didn’t Remain campaign on the servant shortage that Brexit has inevitably triggered? It would have resonated so well in Hartlepool and Stoke.
    Leicester has a lower Household income than either place that you mention, but as I pointed out can still be an issue.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 17,058

    I have found myself wondering what I would do if I were in charge of implementing Brexit. This might be the result:

    - We announce we will apply to join EEA/EFTA and the Single Market, noting that this places us outside of 70-80% or so of EU law, the CAP, CFP, etc, and we will apply all existing controls that are permitted on Freedom of Movement (and that we don't already apply). This also significantly reduces our gross payments to the EU; all savings being directed towards the NHS.

    - We aim to sign the EEA Agreement as soon as possible. As this is an "off-the-peg" Agreement that needs minimal negotiation, we can therefore complete the Article 50 withdrawal as soon as it is done - we don't need to run the clock out for the two years. In short, we will then be out of the EU (and requiring an explicit application and negotiation to rejoin, if we ever want to do so) far sooner.

    - All European Nationals resident in the UK prior to the referendum will be offered UK Citizenship and rights.

    - We announce that we will subject this outcome to a referendum (I hate these now, but I feel it is necessary to close the subject off: it started with a referendum saying "do something" and should finish with one saying "Yes, that something will do") after five years. This will give the people long enough to judge whether or not the outcome is acceptable without being kicked into the long grass. I understand that no Parliament can bind its successor, but by passing the preliminary legislation and announcing the date, any future Parliament would have to explicitly renege on it to prevent it. The Government will campaign to remain inside the EEA.

    - Should the level of immigration under FoM, even after full exercise of the standard existing powers, be sufficiently high as to cause continuing economic and/or political issues, we will exercise Articles 112-113 of the EEA Agreement until those issues are resolved (eg housing crisis).

    For Leavers - this gets us out more rapidly and removes the opportunity for anyone to take their Brexit away. There would be no "Remain"; we'd already be outside the EU. We would have to explicitly rejoin to undo it. It provides a minimum disruption Brexit as well, and retains the option to go even further in the direction of Hard Brexit

    For Remainers, it provides maximum European co-operation still in compliance with the referendum result, retains the Single Market, minimises disruption, provides a Peoples' Vote of some description, removes concern over resident EU Nationals in the UK, and keeps us as close as possible to the EU.

    For everyone else, it stops all the disruption, provides minimal economic dislocation, provides the quickest possible certainty going forwards, and hopefully shuts up all the obsessives on both sides.

    Personally this would be pretty much the perfect solution for me. It mirrors exactly the sort of Brexit I hoped for.
  • NEW THREAD

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 12,437
    Today's Tesco strawberry score is 9.

    An increase of 1 since yesterday:

    Aberdeenshire
    Angus
    Leicestershire
    Staffordshire
    Herefordshire
    Cambridgeshire
    Kent
    Berkshire
    Somerset

    That's gains in Angus and Cambridgeshire and a loss in Perthshire.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,613
    edited June 2018

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....

    Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
    Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......
    Labour were in a worse position than that in the polls between 2015-17 and Corbyn didn’t go anywhere. Corbyn’s supporters will point to the Survation poll which came out yesterday, and to last GE. Only three years ago Tories were so excited by the prospect of a Corbyn led Labour Party there was ‘Tories 4 Corbyn’ and now you get the sense some want the party to be led by someone like Woodcock. How times change....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 12,437
    edited June 2018

    Today's Tesco strawberry score is 9.

    An increase of 1 since yesterday:

    Aberdeenshire
    Angus
    Leicestershire
    Staffordshire
    Herefordshire
    Cambridgeshire
    Kent
    Berkshire
    Somerset

    That's gains in Angus and Cambridgeshire and a loss in Perthshire.

    I've been disappointed not to see Yorkshire make an appearance yet so went and picked some for myself.

    As did hundreds of others - that's a money spinner for farmers along a main road I can tell you. And I never realised there was money to be made in 'pick your own peas' either.

    After that a walk over a landscaped slag heap while reflecting how beautiful the English countryside is.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,666

    I have found myself wondering what I would do if I were in charge of implementing Brexit. This might be the result:

    - We announce we will apply to join EEA/EFTA and the Single Market, noting that this places us outside of 70-80% or so of EU law, the CAP, CFP, etc, and we will apply all existing controls that are permitted on Freedom of Movement (and that we don't already apply). This also significantly reduces our gross payments to the EU; all savings being directed towards the NHS.

    - We aim to sign the EEA Agreement as soon as possible. As this is an "off-the-peg" Agreement that needs

    - All European Nationals resident in the UK prior to the referendum will be offered UK Citizenship and rights.

    - We announce that we will subject this outcome to a referendum (I hate these now, but I feel it is necessary to close the subject off: it started with a referendum saying "do something" and should finish with one saying "Yes, that something will do") after five years. This will give the people long enough to judge whether or not the outcome is acceptable without being kicked into the long grass. I understand that no Parliament can bind its successor, but by passing the preliminary legislation and announcing the date, any future Parliament would have to explicitly renege on it to prevent it. The Government will campaign to remain inside the EEA.

    - Should the level of immigration under FoM, even after full exercise of the standard existing powers, be sufficiently high as to cause continuing economic and/or political issues, we will exercise Articles 112-113 of the EEA Agreement until those issues are resolved (eg housing crisis).

    For Leavers - this gets us out more rapidly and removes the opportunity for anyone to take their Brexit away. There would be no "Remain"; we'd already be outside the EU. We would have to explicitly rejoin to undo it. It provides a minimum disruption Brexit as well, and retains the option to go even further in the direction of Hard Brexit

    For Remainers, it provides maximum European co-operation still in compliance with the referendum result, retains the Single Market, minimises disruption, provides a Peoples' Vote of some description, removes concern over resident EU Nationals in the UK, and keeps us as close as possible to the EU.

    For everyone else, it stops all the disruption, provides minimal economic dislocation, provides the quickest possible certainty going forwards, and hopefully shuts up all the obsessives on both sides.

    Personally this would be pretty much the perfect solution for me. It mirrors exactly the sort of Brexit I hoped for.
    Bloody brilliant. Why aren’t our politicians capable of seeing this?
This discussion has been closed.