Who are we supposed to believe, Isabel Oakeshott in March or Isabel Oakeshott today?
Can I suggest a compromise?
We assume she was lying on both occasions.
This whole affair is quite confusing.
If Aaron Banks is an agent of influence, why aren’t the police involved? If he is not, why has he continually lied to Carole Cadwalladr? Why did Oakeshott have his emails in her attic? Why did she decide to revisit them when writing a book “about the armed forces”. Where is Lord Ashcroft in all of this? Who released the emails to the Sunday Times?
Etc
OK - my opinion of Dominic Cummings, his integrity and his ability, wouldn't actually pass the mods, so I won't try. Suffice it to say that if I found he were a Russian spy rather than what I consider him to be comparable to, that would be a considerable improvement. But if this story came from Isobel Oakeshott, my immediate assumption is it's an Irving-style fantasy that she's dreamed up to promote herself. Therefore, given she isn't particularly bright and has no noticeable literary talent, it's not surprising it makes no sense.
I'm surprised more isn't made about Cummings's time in Russia in the 1990s.
Ms. Anazina, I don't go on holiday much. I certainly don't go on holiday to satisfy your bizarre obsession with acting like a snob because I happen not to have visited France.
Edited extra bit: I'm quite aggravated and that's no mood for discussion, so I'll be off. If others missed it, I've posted the pre-race ramble. Backed Ricciardo at 5 (5.25 with boost) for a podium.
What’s snobbish exactly about inquiring why you have never visited our neighbours (or London)? What a bizarre post.
In practice, I think the final outcome described is where we will wind up with the Tories too. The biggest difference under a Labour negotiation would be that we would get there in a fairly constructive way. Under the Tories it would be one long tantrum by the Europhobes, then signing on the dotted line.
If the end state is to be the same what does it matter how constructive or not the path there was? By your own scenario it had no impact, so presumably woukd have no ongoing negative impacts either.
Thanks for the friendly reception. Catching up with a few queries (the article was in response to a request from Cyclefree, incidentally):
- Charles and daodao, yes, I don't care about the nationality of the judges arbitrating trade disputes - on the whole I trust judges to decide on the law, whether they're British or German or Spanish. The ECJ is fine with me, and it's not an issue with more than a tiny fragment of voters. The same goes for the European Arrest Warrant - most people feel the right to retain each others' suspected crooks is not worth having.
- CD13: if we're all in the customs union we can't sign up to our own special tariff deals. But IMO they're a bit of a fantasy anyway, if we want to stick to current standards as both major parties say. Yes, NI would still have free movement - is immigration a big issue in Ulster? Reasonably flexible non-free movement for the rest of GB with the capability to vary with economic circumstances would be fairly acceptable all round, I reckon - most British voters just want to feel it's coming under control, not some sort of Trumpian wall. Similarly, the Continent would like to have British expertise when they want it, but aren't desperate to have everyone.
- Icarus: I agree that forcing Irish union would be a terrible idea leading to endless trouble. But forcing a continuation of current arrangements and accepting a long-term drift would probably be accepted by most. I'm factoring in the DUP being indignant. Tough.
JackW: I agree that studied ambiguity is probably the best Opposition policy for now in tactical terms. If I was in the Shadow Cabinet I wouldn't be publishing this. But it's important (to us and to business and in general terms to voters) to think about where we'd be heading if we do get in.
JackW: I agree that studied ambiguity is probably the best Opposition policy for now in tactical terms. If I was in the Shadow Cabinet I wouldn't be publishing this. But it's important (to us and to business and in general terms to voters) to think about where we'd be heading if we do get in.
Why?
Polling shows support for the current trajectory falling.
We haven’t talked about Trump trashing the G7, calling Trudeau a liar, and suggesting that Canadian milk tariffs are sufficient reason for a trade war on steel and aluminium.
The man is an orange dotard. That Johnson now claims to see a model worth following is simply another reason Johnson should be tarred and feathered rather than cosseted in ministerial office.
Starmer coming close to saying Labour's policy is to stay in the Single Market.
Yes. Good news. Starmer was excellent on Marr and changed my view on the amendments next Tuesday from supporting the EEA amendment to supporting the Labour alternative.
But it's all very technical (though critically important) such as the EEA doesn't include a customs union. I suspect almost all the electorate don't understand these issues and a good many MPs may not either.
The EEA amendment and the Labour alternative will both fail on Tuesday but as Starmer says, there will be another chance with the Trade Bill in a few weeks time when the technical issues may be better understood.
Ms. Anazina, I don't go on holiday much. I certainly don't go on holiday to satisfy your bizarre obsession with acting like a snob because I happen not to have visited France.
Edited extra bit: I'm quite aggravated and that's no mood for discussion, so I'll be off. If others missed it, I've posted the pre-race ramble. Backed Ricciardo at 5 (5.25 with boost) for a podium.
What’s snobbish exactly about inquiring why you have never visited our neighbours (or London)? What a bizarre post.
It's snobbish because you repeatedly raise the issue and it is none of your business and irrelevant to any point being made, yet you seem to think it relevant, even weird.
I work with a chap who is 72 and has never been off this island. I think he's missed some great opportunities to travel, but it's his life, he can do what he likes, and it doesn't seem to affect his political views one way or another. (New labourish I'd say)
I have visited France by the way, and Germany, spain, Australia and China. Not well travelled compared to some of the jet setters on here, but it does mean...Nothing.
You seem obsessive in asking certain people about it though, or commenting about them not having done so, repeatedly. If it's not snobbery behind it, what is? Your tone when commenting on those who haven't makes it very clear you think it's significant in some way. And that is rather odd.
We haven’t talked about Trump trashing the G7, calling Trudeau a liar, and suggesting that Canadian milk tariffs are sufficient reason for a trade war on steel and aluminium.
The man is an orange dotard. That Johnson now claims to see a model worth following is simply another reason Johnson should be tarred and feathered rather than cosseted in ministerial office.
Think you understate the trade union agenda and workers rights reform, which will be the at the heart of of whatever is decided.
You also overlook the HoC arithmetic. Corbyn will be dependent on John Woodcock et. al. to pass anything. That too will have an impact. Corbyn relationship with the Commons will mirror Trumps relationship with Congress.
You do spot that Corbyn is not interested by Europe, but underplay that. He will want to get it out of the way. That will determine what happens.
JackW: I agree that studied ambiguity is probably the best Opposition policy for now in tactical terms. If I was in the Shadow Cabinet I wouldn't be publishing this. But it's important (to us and to business and in general terms to voters) to think about where we'd be heading if we do get in.
Why?
Polling shows support for the current trajectory falling.
Why doesn't the opposition, you know, oppose?
Studied ambiguity allows them to be vague enough to keep on bord those worries Brexit is going badly and those happy it is. They oppose enough to keep the support of rejoiners, but not enough to upset leavers.
At sone point they will be more decisive, if they can resolve internal issues, but not until they have to.
Ms. Anazina, I don't go on holiday much. I certainly don't go on holiday to satisfy your bizarre obsession with acting like a snob because I happen not to have visited France.
Edited extra bit: I'm quite aggravated and that's no mood for discussion, so I'll be off. If others missed it, I've posted the pre-race ramble. Backed Ricciardo at 5 (5.25 with boost) for a podium.
What’s snobbish exactly about inquiring why you have never visited our neighbours (or London)? What a bizarre post.
It's snobbish because you repeatedly raise the issue and it is none of your business and irrelevant to any point being made, yet you seem to think it relevant, even weird.
I work with a chap who is 72 and has never been off this island. I think he's missed some great opportunities to travel, but it's his life, he can do what he likes, and it doesn't seem to affect his political views one way or another. (New labourish I'd say)
I have visited France by the way, and Germany, spain, Australia and China. Not well travelled compared to some of the jet setters on here, but it does mean...Nothing.
You seem obsessive in asking certain people about it though, or commenting about them not having done so, repeatedly. If it's not snobbery behind it, what is? Your tone when commenting on those who haven't makes it very clear you think it's significant in some way. And that is rather odd.
I believe the original spat was over the national character of the French, so I don’t think snobbery comes in to it.
"Suppose a few by-elections go horribly wrong (for legal reasons I won’t discuss one possible one in the near future). Suppose a new Tory leader calls a snap election and loses? What would Labour actually do?"
Which possible one is Nick thinking of?
A Tory MP is about to be prosecuted for bestiality.
Starmer coming close to saying Labour's policy is to stay in the Single Market.
Yes. Good news. Starmer was excellent on Marr and changed my view on the amendments next Tuesday from supporting the EEA amendment to supporting the Labour alternative.
But it's all very technical (though critically important) such as the EEA doesn't include a customs union. I suspect almost all the electorate don't understand these issues and a good many MPs may not either.
The EEA amendment and the Labour alternative will both fail on Tuesday but as Starmer says, there will be another chance with the Trade Bill in a few weeks time when the technical issues may be better understood.
Labour’s ‘internal market’ amendment is nonsense on stilts. We are either in the Single Market or not.
I also think the objection to EEA on the ground that Norway, Iceand and Lichtenstein aren’t in a customs union with the EU, and therefore we couldn’t have both, is specious. If we asked for both who would deny it to us, subject to continued FOM?
Starmer needs to persuade Corbyn on EEA by mid-July. That’s it.
We haven’t talked about Trump trashing the G7, calling Trudeau a liar, and suggesting that Canadian milk tariffs are sufficient reason for a trade war on steel and aluminium.
The man is an orange dotard. That Johnson now claims to see a model worth following is simply another reason Johnson should be tarred and feathered rather than cosseted in ministerial office.
We haven’t talked about Trump trashing the G7, calling Trudeau a liar, and suggesting that Canadian milk tariffs are sufficient reason for a trade war on steel and aluminium.
The man is an orange dotard. That Johnson now claims to see a model worth following is simply another reason Johnson should be tarred and feathered rather than cosseted in ministerial office.
It does rather sum up his main issue - all he says seems clearly more about him than anything else. I'm still convinced if he'd gone remain May woukd have gone Leave, as for both it was about politics.
We haven’t talked about Trump trashing the G7, calling Trudeau a liar, and suggesting that Canadian milk tariffs are sufficient reason for a trade war on steel and aluminium.
The man is an orange dotard. That Johnson now claims to see a model worth following is simply another reason Johnson should be tarred and feathered rather than cosseted in ministerial office.
The flames of possible treason charges are now lapping at the doors of Dominic Cummings (Vote Leave), Arron Banks (Leave.EU), and Michael Gove (who had Cummings as his spad for several years).
In the case of Banks, little could be more obvious than the man has it coming to him. Boris Johnson may soon feel the heat too. None of these four guys can take pressure well. Paul Dacre can take it, but he has resigned.
Events of the next week and fortnight will bring the powers of Commons Speaker John Bercow to the fore. Word is that Isabel Oakeshott has sought his protection. (Other whistleblowers have run to the Speaker in the past, with little or no media attention. Basically if you are on a select committee's witness list - which is often longer than the list of witnesses who are actually called - then any officials who are hassling you will get into bloody big trouble if they continue to try to influence or nobble you off their own bat).
The Leave traitors are likely to want Bercow out and to replace him with one of their own. Fast. His nine years are up on 22 June, so ideally they want him to leave on or before that date (any time from now would do) and to say that he always planned to. Similarly in 1976 when Harold Wilson was forced out of office by traitors resigned there was a declaration that he had previously told the monarch that he had decided to resign at around that time, blah blah.
Is there a book on when Bercow will leave office?
PS Is Isabel Oakeshott related to Walter Oakeshott?
Very interesting header. I think Nick may be underestimating some of the Labour fault lines though. A substantial minority would call for a second referendum on the EU and be very, very upset when that didn't happen. Would they challenge Corbyn for the leadership again?
Starmer coming close to saying Labour's policy is to stay in the Single Market.
Yes. Good news. Starmer was excellent on Marr and changed my view on the amendments next Tuesday from supporting the EEA amendment to supporting the Labour alternative.
But it's all very technical (though critically important) such as the EEA doesn't include a customs union. I suspect almost all the electorate don't understand these issues and a good many MPs may not either.
The EEA amendment and the Labour alternative will both fail on Tuesday but as Starmer says, there will be another chance with the Trade Bill in a few weeks time when the technical issues may be better understood.
Labour’s ‘internal market’ amendment is nonsense on stilts. We are either in the Single Market or not.
I also think the objection to EEA on the ground that Norway, Iceand and Lichtenstein aren’t in a customs union with the EU, and therefore we couldn’t have both, is specious. If we asked for both who would deny it to us, subject to continued FOM?
Starmer needs to persuade Corbyn on EEA by mid-July. That’s it.
If it included the CU, it wouldn't be the EEA. It would be a new agreement that included Norway et al if they wanted it (probably they don't) or UK specific.
If you haven't seen the Starmer interview on Marr this morning, I suggest you watch it. It changed my mind. Until then, I would have agreed with you.
Corbyn would sign up to a Customs Union but still not the Customs Union.
Labour will not be able to get an deal on freedom of movement, even restricting it mainly to skilled workers, as the EU takes an all or nothing approach to it and that applies equally to the single market. So no difference under Corbyn to the Tories there and with most Labour seats voting Leave largely to tighten immigration controls and Corbyn ideologically opposed to the single market we would still leave the EEA.
Corbyn has made clear he will not accept ECJ unfettered jurisdiction over UK law so no difference with the Tories there either.
Even if Ulster remained inside the single market that would not enable the UK to too and even if most Northern Irish voters would accept that the DUP would not and would thus vote down a Corbyn government so Corbyn would need to make clear net gains in MPs from the Tories to become PM.
So in practical terms a Corbyn Brexit would be no different to a May Brexit bar he would stay in a Customs Union but not the Customs Union which is not far from May's agreement to regulatory alignment with the EU and to collect tariffs for the EU.
Only the LDs and Greens of the GB wide parties and Labour and Tory rebels like Umunna and Soubry take a clearly distinct line from May by backing staying in the Single Market and the Customs Union.
One aspect of the pressure that having the SM in NI would exert in GB in your scenario is that many unskilled migrants from Eastern Europe would try to get to GB from NI and there would be a lot of work for immigration officers at NI to GB ports.
Thanks for the friendly reception. Catching up with a few queries (the article was in response to a request from Cyclefree, incidentally):
- Charles and daodao, yes, I don't care about the nationality of the judges arbitrating trade disputes - on the whole I trust judges to decide on the law, whether they're British or German or Spanish. The ECJ is fine with me, and it's not an issue with more than a tiny fragment of voters. The same goes for the European Arrest Warrant - most people feel the right to retain each others' suspected crooks is not worth having.
- CD13: if we're all in the customs union we can't sign up to our own special tariff deals. But IMO they're a bit of a fantasy anyway, if we want to stick to current standards as both major parties say. Yes, NI would still have free movement - is immigration a big issue in Ulster? Reasonably flexible non-free movement for the rest of GB with the capability to vary with economic circumstances would be fairly acceptable all round, I reckon - most British voters just want to feel it's coming under control, not some sort of Trumpian wall. Similarly, the Continent would like to have British expertise when they want it, but aren't desperate to have everyone.
- Icarus: I agree that forcing Irish union would be a terrible idea leading to endless trouble. But forcing a continuation of current arrangements and accepting a long-term drift would probably be accepted by most. I'm factoring in the DUP being indignant. Tough.
JackW: I agree that studied ambiguity is probably the best Opposition policy for now in tactical terms. If I was in the Shadow Cabinet I wouldn't be publishing this. But it's important (to us and to business and in general terms to voters) to think about where we'd be heading if we do get in.
I don't believe an Irish Union can be forced - any attempt to do that would result in NI declaring UDI.
One aspect of the pressure that having the SM in NI would exert in GB in your scenario is that many unskilled migrants from Eastern Europe would try to get to GB from NI and there would be a lot of work for immigration officers at NI to GB ports.
Would they? Presumably EU citizens still be able to get into GB for a short visit without any particular drama then overstay, so it's not obvious what the NI route would get you.
Starmer coming close to saying Labour's policy is to stay in the Single Market.
Yes. Good news. Starmer was excellent on Marr and changed my view on the amendments next Tuesday from supporting the EEA amendment to supporting the Labour alternative.
But it's all very technical (though critically important) such as the EEA doesn't include a customs union. I suspect almost all the electorate don't understand these issues and a good many MPs may not either.
The EEA amendment and the Labour alternative will both fail on Tuesday but as Starmer says, there will be another chance with the Trade Bill in a few weeks time when the technical issues may be better understood.
Labour’s ‘internal market’ amendment is nonsense on stilts. We are either in the Single Market or not.
I also think the objection to EEA on the ground that Norway, Iceand and Lichtenstein aren’t in a customs union with the EU, and therefore we couldn’t have both, is specious. If we asked for both who would deny it to us, subject to continued FOM?
Starmer needs to persuade Corbyn on EEA by mid-July. That’s it.
If it included the CU, it wouldn't be the EEA. It would be a new agreement that included Norway et al if they wanted it (probably they don't) or UK specific.
If you haven't seen the Starmer interview on Marr this morning, I suggest you watch it. It changed my mind. Until then, I would have agreed with you.
Thanks for the recommendation - just watched a few clips online. Actually feel more reassured about what Labour is doing now!
One aspect of the pressure that having the SM in NI would exert in GB in your scenario is that many unskilled migrants from Eastern Europe would try to get to GB from NI and there would be a lot of work for immigration officers at NI to GB ports.
Would they? Presumably EU citizens still be able to get into GB for a short visit without any particular drama then overstay, so it's not obvious what the NI route would get you.
That's a good point - they could enter GB as visitors and work off the cards, while in NI be allowed to work lawfully. That could boost the far right in GB but might not bother the DUP much.
Vaguely on topic: A strange symptom of the Brexiteer pathology appears to be an obsession with car washes. Just one of many aspects of the condition that I am far from able to comprehend.
I guess it could be common humanity.
The same reason that the Catholic Church and the Anglican Church have suggested that car washes need the interest of concerned individuals to combat forced labour.
It can surely not have escaped the notice of even the dimmest that those working in car washes often do not speak much english and seem very miserable.
The flames of possible treason charges are now lapping at the doors of Dominic Cummings (Vote Leave), Arron Banks (Leave.EU), and Michael Gove (who had Cummings as his spad for several years).
In the case of Banks, little could be more obvious than the man has it coming to him. Boris Johnson may soon feel the heat too. None of these four guys can take pressure well. Paul Dacre can take it, but he has resigned.
Events of the next week and fortnight will bring the powers of Commons Speaker John Bercow to the fore. Word is that Isabel Oakeshott has sought his protection. (Other whistleblowers have run to the Speaker in the past, with little or no media attention. Basically if you are on a select committee's witness list - which is often longer than the list of witnesses who are actually called - then any officials who are hassling you will get into bloody big trouble if they continue to try to influence or nobble you off their own bat).
The Leave traitors are likely to want Bercow out and to replace him with one of their own. Fast. His nine years are up on 22 June, so ideally they want him to leave on or before that date (any time from now would do) and to say that he always planned to. Similarly in 1976 when Harold Wilson was forced out of office by traitors resigned there was a declaration that he had previously told the monarch that he had decided to resign at around that time, blah blah.
Is there a book on when Bercow will leave office?
PS Is Isabel Oakeshott related to Walter Oakeshott?
I don’t think Dominic Cummings (and by extension Gove) is implicated just yet, even if he did spend some formative years in Russia.
Seems pretty clear though now that Oakeshott has gone to the Sunday Times to pre-empt allegations of conspiracy against her before the Aaron Banks news leaked out in the Observer.
Brexit seems to have been bankrolled by Putin, and pushed over the line by appeals to xenophobia and a brutally effective online propaganda effort.
The “will of the people” turns out to be another Brexit fraud.
The truth is its the Irish economy that threatens to take the hit, not the NI economy. The trade is hugely South-North not the other way. The British government should grow a spine and remind the EU and indeed the Irish government about that fact. As for the putting peace at risk its a load of balls, we are no longer in a peace process, its politics, as screwed up as it is. If you continue to treat it as some kind of fragile object then you only encourage this idea that either side (both sides Nick Palmer, are still capable), rather than making it clear that they needn't bother their holes. We've blown up the border issue way beyond its consequences in practice for UK territory and in doing so, have tied the thing in knots. To those who think that the Brexit issue will lead to some kind of large realignment in NI politics, it won't. I know this may come as shock to the middle class fools that are the commentariat, but nationality will dominate that artificial construct of the EU every single time.
As for the talk in the media today about Arron Banks etc, this is not all of it by any means. Whether Banks is quite as wealthy as his bankrolling levels for Leave.EU may warrant scrutiny for example. I did mention the mysterious foreign investments in UK Shell companies, which despite being told I was a conspiracy theorist, a number of months later the UK government closed such a loophole to help shut down routes for dodge money from Russia. I did call Farage and his ilk traitors to the country. I did say some of the whole business with Trump and his links to third party countries would find its way close to home.
You can add the above paragraph's contents in whatever combination you like.
While May and Hammond have been beyond lamentable in this negotiation, there is no doubt in my mind that Corbyn and McIRA would be worse. How would they square leaving the EU with being in a coalition with the SNP and their own rabid remainers.
I think moderate Tory MPs are now asking questions about the UK's fallback position in the event of a no deal and the answers from May and Hammond are pathetic. That is what will lead to their removal and replacement.
No 10/11 need to get on with WTO exit planning sooner rather than later or they will get forced out.
You do spot that Corbyn is not interested by Europe, but underplay that. He will want to get it out of the way. That will determine what happens.
Врексит, as we now must call it now that we know who paid for it, is a mere bump on Corbyn's Shining Path. He doesn't give a fuck about it in comparison to the other Great Works which are part of his progam. For him, any Врексит will do so he can get it out of the way and get on with something which interests him more.
OT. Yesterday I stopped at the Welsh seaside town of Penmaenmawr for a coffee. My travelling companion asked the waitress for an expresso. 'An expresso?'
I realised immediately that this wasn't a problem with pronunciation but my companion didn't 'Yes please an e-x-p-r-e-s-s-o'.
'A small coffee without milk' I added helpfully. 'We don't do SMALL coffees without milk' she said with a hint of ridicule. 'We do white coffee or black coffee or Cafetiere but that'll cost you an extra 50p'
Apologies if this was posted before but I did not see it -- just the O'Hagan LRB and Sunday Times attacks.
Under those same rules, fire crew should not have even gone into Grenfell Tower because, according to a risk assessment carried out after the blaze started that night, it was in danger of collapsing.
Firefighters were officially informed of this by Dany Cotton, the female commissioner of the London Fire Brigade, who addressed staff at the scene, in North Kensington, London, at the height of the unfolding tragedy.
‘Go in and get people out,’ she told them. ‘Forget protocol. Forget the rulebook.’ But, crucially, she also admitted that she couldn’t order them to go into the building — it was up to each individual fireman to make his own decision in those circumstances.
All of the firefighters gathered around her — that’s more than 200 men and women — went in.
I have found the veiled attacks on the firefighters at Grenfell - particularly by some of the TV news channels - to be truly offensive.
Rules were put in place because they were thought to be the best way of keeping people alive based on years of experience. If the fire teams on site had immediately broken those rules and people had died in stairwells there would have been massive criticism. But once it became clear that the rules were not going to do the job the response was to break the rules that kept firefighters safe in order to try and save more lives.
I can't even begin to imagine what sort of temperament you have to have to voluntarily go into a tower block that is a raging inferno and the idea that afterwards we should be criticising people because the rules that they were being told to follow turned out to be wrong seems to me to be perverse.
OT. Yesterday I stopped at the Welsh seaside town of Penmaenmawr for a coffee. My travelling companion asked the waitress for an expresso. 'An expresso?'
I realised immediately that this wasn't a problem with pronunciation but my companion didn't 'Yes please an e-x-p-r-e-s-s-o'.
'A small coffee without milk' I added helpfully. 'We don't do SMALL coffees without milk' she said with a hint of ridicule. 'We do white coffee or black coffee or Cafetiere but that'll cost you an extra 50p'
So have any of our Remainers got anything to say now about FDI after their claims disintegrated in the last thread.
Namely that the fall in FDI from 2016 to 2017 was because in 2016 a couple of big multinational businesses registered in Britain were sold to multinational businesses registered in other countries.
And that business investment and gross fixed capital formation increased in 2017.
While May and Hammond have been beyond lamentable in this negotiation, there is no doubt in my mind that Corbyn and McIRA would be worse. How would they square leaving the EU with being in a coalition with the SNP and their own rabid remainers.
I think moderate Tory MPs are now asking questions about the UK's fallback position in the event of a no deal and the answers from May and Hammond are pathetic. That is what will lead to their removal and replacement.
No 10/11 need to get on with WTO exit planning sooner rather than later or they will get forced out.
If May and Hammond go the government will fall and JCWBPM. The negotiations are going badly not because May is crap but because the hand is crap. There is a big majority among MPs and the public for a fairly soft Brexit - which would nicely reflect the close Referendum result. The idea that an ERG style no deal Brexit is feasible is laughable.
Very interesting header. I think Nick may be underestimating some of the Labour fault lines though. A substantial minority would call for a second referendum on the EU and be very, very upset when that didn't happen. Would they challenge Corbyn for the leadership again?
OT. Yesterday I stopped at the Welsh seaside town of Penmaenmawr for a coffee. My travelling companion asked the waitress for an expresso. 'An expresso?'
I realised immediately that this wasn't a problem with pronunciation but my companion didn't 'Yes please an e-x-p-r-e-s-s-o'.
'A small coffee without milk' I added helpfully. 'We don't do SMALL coffees without milk' she said with a hint of ridicule. 'We do white coffee or black coffee or Cafetiere but that'll cost you an extra 50p'
I bet you were both highly amused. What larks! heaven knows what the waitress in Hartlepool might have said.
"Suppose a few by-elections go horribly wrong (for legal reasons I won’t discuss one possible one in the near future). Suppose a new Tory leader calls a snap election and loses? What would Labour actually do?"
Which possible one is Nick thinking of?
A Tory MP is about to be prosecuted for bestiality.
JackW: I agree that studied ambiguity is probably the best Opposition policy for now in tactical terms. If I was in the Shadow Cabinet I wouldn't be publishing this. But it's important (to us and to business and in general terms to voters) to think about where we'd be heading if we do get in.
Why?
Polling shows support for the current trajectory falling.
Why doesn't the opposition, you know, oppose?
I think we should, but it's difficult to oppose a moving target when the Government's position changes every week. Politically speaking, when they've decided what they want is the time to oppose it.
JackW: I agree that studied ambiguity is probably the best Opposition policy for now in tactical terms. If I was in the Shadow Cabinet I wouldn't be publishing this. But it's important (to us and to business and in general terms to voters) to think about where we'd be heading if we do get in.
Why?
Polling shows support for the current trajectory falling.
Why doesn't the opposition, you know, oppose?
To be fair to the Opposition, to oppose you have to have some idea of what you are supposed to be opposing. When the Government is as dysfunctional and divided as this one just about any position Labour take could be said to be opposing and supporting at the same time.
It was obvious before the referendum that Russia was pushing Brexit. We are only seeing the dots being joined up now.
The site’s Leavers are being awfully quiet on this subject this morning.
I am surprised at the xenophobic nature of your comments regarding Russia.
Even if I do not approve of Putin, I certainly don’t tar the whole of the Russian people with the same brush.
Russia occupied a region (the Crimea) that is ethnically predominantly Russian. It was only removed from Russain and joined to the Ukraine by Stalin in 1954.
It would have been better to have held a plebiscite under the auspices on an international body, but there is no evidence that the Ukraine Government was willing to permit one. No-one has any real doubt that a plebiscite would have confirmed the desire of the majority of the Crimean population for Russian rule.
For this, Russia has been punished out of all proportion. The one good thing about Trump is that he has not embarked on the truly disastrous policies that Hillary Clinton was advocating in the region.
While May and Hammond have been beyond lamentable in this negotiation, there is no doubt in my mind that Corbyn and McIRA would be worse. How would they square leaving the EU with being in a coalition with the SNP and their own rabid remainers.
I think moderate Tory MPs are now asking questions about the UK's fallback position in the event of a no deal and the answers from May and Hammond are pathetic. That is what will lead to their removal and replacement.
No 10/11 need to get on with WTO exit planning sooner rather than later or they will get forced out.
If May and Hammond go the government will fall and JCWBPM. The negotiations are going badly not because May is crap but because the hand is crap. There is a big majority among MPs and the public for a fairly soft Brexit - which would nicely reflect the close Referendum result. The idea that an ERG style no deal Brexit is feasible is laughable.
I didn't say that we should aim for a no deal Brexit, just that we need to prepare for it and the government aren't doing so. A lot of the reason we have a crap hand is because we have not done the hard work on "WTO exit" planning. The EU knows we have no fallback position which won't irreparably harm the economy so they have no need to give any ground. If the government had spent the last two years getting the UK's international trading position resolved, getting UK regulatory bodies recognised internationally and preparing for a much larger customs border for 70% more trade volume and beggining to work towards a customs pre-clearance/smart border infrastructure for key industries (same as the US/Canada border) the EU would be giving much more ground, especially on customs.
May and Hammond have failed to prepare the UK and for that a price needs to be paid.
So have any of our Remainers got anything to say now about FDI after their claims disintegrated in the last thread.
Namely that the fall in FDI from 2016 to 2017 was because in 2016 a couple of big multinational businesses registered in Britain were sold to multinational businesses registered in other countries.
And that business investment and gross fixed capital formation increased in 2017.
As I pointed out, 2017 FDI was at half or even less the trend of the 2010s.
I cannot dispute your other figures but they seem at odds with a stalled economy.
Apparent sudden surge in generic Democrat support - 7 polls in immediate succession showing an average 8-point lead. Did Trump do anything especially annoying last week?
It was obvious before the referendum that Russia was pushing Brexit. We are only seeing the dots being joined up now.
The site’s Leavers are being awfully quiet on this subject this morning.
I am surprised at the xenophobic nature of your comments regarding Russia.
Even if I do not approve of Putin, I certainly don’t tar the whole of the Russian people with the same brush.
Russia occupied a region (the Crimea) that is ethnically predominantly Russian. It was only removed from Russain and joined to the Ukraine by Stalin in 1954.
It would have been better to have held a plebiscite under the auspices on an international body, but there is no evidence that the Ukraine Government was willing to permit one. No-one has any real doubt that a plebiscite would have confirmed the desire of the majority of the Crimean population for Russian rule.
For this, Russia has been punished out of all proportion. The one good thing about Trump is that he has not embarked on the truly disastrous policies that Hillary Clinton was advocating in the region.
Russophobia is the commonest form of xenophobia.
What has Crimea and Hillary Clinton got to do with Putin bankrolling Brexit?
So have any of our Remainers got anything to say now about FDI after their claims disintegrated in the last thread.
Namely that the fall in FDI from 2016 to 2017 was because in 2016 a couple of big multinational businesses registered in Britain were sold to multinational businesses registered in other countries.
And that business investment and gross fixed capital formation increased in 2017.
As I pointed out, 2017 FDI was at half or even less the trend of the 2010s.
I cannot dispute your other figures but they seem at odds with a stalled economy.
It just demonstrates what a poor indicator FDI is. Foreigners buying up British infrastructure and business is very different to capital investment in new facilities. For that surely current account deficit matters more.
So what if FDI is up or down if it amounts to nothing more than foreign companies buying British companies.
What we need is increasing business investment and increasing gross fixed capital formation - both of which we have had during the last two years.
As to the stalled economy the GDP figures are mediocre but they have been for years and are themselves at odds with the employment and tax receipts data.
Caroline Flint on Sunday Politics confirms she will vote against the EEA option and says most Labour backbenchers see the EEA as 'the worst possible outcome for the UK' requiring as it does freedom of movement.
Chris Leslie pushes the EEA as the best option for the UK economy
It was obvious before the referendum that Russia was pushing Brexit. We are only seeing the dots being joined up now.
The site’s Leavers are being awfully quiet on this subject this morning.
I am surprised at the xenophobic nature of your comments regarding Russia.
Even if I do not approve of Putin, I certainly don’t tar the whole of the Russian people with the same brush.
Russia occupied a region (the Crimea) that is ethnically predominantly Russian. It was only removed from Russain and joined to the Ukraine by Stalin in 1954.
It would have been better to have held a plebiscite under the auspices on an international body, but there is no evidence that the Ukraine Government was willing to permit one. No-one has any real doubt that a plebiscite would have confirmed the desire of the majority of the Crimean population for Russian rule.
For this, Russia has been punished out of all proportion. The one good thing about Trump is that he has not embarked on the truly disastrous policies that Hillary Clinton was advocating in the region.
Russophobia is the commonest form of xenophobia.
Are you going to have a go at defending invading Dombass as well? For extra credit, try to do it with an argument that wouldn't also apply to Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia.
Apparent sudden surge in generic Democrat support - 7 polls in immediate succession showing an average 8-point lead. Did Trump do anything especially annoying last week?
His tariffs annoyed Democrats and Independents while Trump supporters were annoyed by House Speaker Ryan's opposition to Trump's tariff plans so may stay home in November rather than vote for establishment GOP candidates
Not while Corbyn is LotO. There will be no challenge and there will be no ejection. The ERG can choke on BINO with tears in their rheumy eyes.
Why would the government fall, the party can choose a new leader without going to the public.
I doubt if the government would survive such a process and then only if the new leader was prepared to work with the moderates in the party. anyone much further to the right of Hammond/May would not be able to keep the moderates on board. The notion you have that no deal preps would persuade the EU to take a different line is not credible.
OT. Yesterday I stopped at the Welsh seaside town of Penmaenmawr for a coffee. My travelling companion asked the waitress for an expresso. 'An expresso?'
I realised immediately that this wasn't a problem with pronunciation but my companion didn't 'Yes please an e-x-p-r-e-s-s-o'.
'A small coffee without milk' I added helpfully. 'We don't do SMALL coffees without milk' she said with a hint of ridicule. 'We do white coffee or black coffee or Cafetiere but that'll cost you an extra 50p'
Lovely part of N Wales, spoiled by the A55 splitting villages in two. I was never brought up in the medium of Welsh and I have been surprised yet gratified at the way young people, particularly in that part of the world are able to speak and understand both English and Welsh equally well, so I am not surprised that the waitress took umbrage.
OT. Yesterday I stopped at the Welsh seaside town of Penmaenmawr for a coffee. My travelling companion asked the waitress for an expresso. 'An expresso?'
I realised immediately that this wasn't a problem with pronunciation but my companion didn't 'Yes please an e-x-p-r-e-s-s-o'.
Why was your friend asking for a Portuguese newspaper in Wales?
Apparent sudden surge in generic Democrat support - 7 polls in immediate succession showing an average 8-point lead. Did Trump do anything especially annoying last week?
If you look at the whole graph the obvious question is more like, what happened on the Trump show that the voters liked in mid-May? It could be the Stormy Daniels sub-plot, that was the best story-writing in the series so far.
I think moderate Tory MPs are now asking questions about the UK's fallback position in the event of a no deal and the answers from May and Hammond are pathetic. That is what will lead to their removal and replacement.
No 10/11 need to get on with WTO exit planning sooner rather than later or they will get forced out.
No negotiator worth that title would have allowed the May-Hammond fallback position a moment's life.
It was obvious before the referendum that Russia was pushing Brexit. We are only seeing the dots being joined up now.
The site’s Leavers are being awfully quiet on this subject this morning.
I am surprised at the xenophobic nature of your comments regarding Russia.
Even if I do not approve of Putin, I certainly don’t tar the whole of the Russian people with the same brush.
Russia occupied a region (the Crimea) that is ethnically predominantly Russian. It was only removed from Russain and joined to the Ukraine by Stalin in 1954.
It would have been better to have held a plebiscite under the auspices on an international body, but there is no evidence that the Ukraine Government was willing to permit one. No-one has any real doubt that a plebiscite would have confirmed the desire of the majority of the Crimean population for Russian rule.
For this, Russia has been punished out of all proportion. The one good thing about Trump is that he has not embarked on the truly disastrous policies that Hillary Clinton was advocating in the region.
Russophobia is the commonest form of xenophobia.
What has Crimea and Hillary Clinton got to do with Putin bankrolling Brexit?
I must admit, I wan’t aware that your job was to monitor the contents of the blog, reprimanding individuals when they stray from the Gardenwalker tunes. I thought we were allowed to roam freely.
Still, as you are here, perhaps can we have a source for your claim about FDI, and perhaps you could properly normalise it so that we can see that it is specific to the UK. I think your claim has been efficiently debunked as Gardenbluster, but let’s have it completely dismembered.
Russophobia is the irrational hatred of Russians.
There is evidence of many external politicians intervening in the Brexit debate (most prominently Barack Obama).
I am worried that Alistair has just singled out just Russia as a malign force ... Russophobia.
It is fine to criticise one and all in an even-handed way, but that isn’t what is being done.
And I am showing that Russophobia is very common in the Remainer mindset by giving the example of the Crimea. The reaction of the EU to the secession of Crimea from the Ukraine was very different to the secession of Slovenia from Yugoslovai.
Ukraine, four legs, good. Yugoslavia, two legs, bad.
Apparent sudden surge in generic Democrat support - 7 polls in immediate succession showing an average 8-point lead. Did Trump do anything especially annoying last week?
Something I saw on twitter, at this point in the cycle for Obama the Rep generic ballot lead was wafer thin, the big generic gap only opened up in September.
Not while Corbyn is LotO. There will be no challenge and there will be no ejection. The ERG can choke on BINO with tears in their rheumy eyes.
Why would the government fall, the party can choose a new leader without going to the public.
I doubt if the government would survive such a process and then only if the new leader was prepared to work with the moderates in the party. anyone much further to the right of Hammond/May would not be able to keep the moderates on board. The notion you have that no deal preps would persuade the EU to take a different line is not credible.
I think May/Hammond are now losing the moderates and I'm not suggesting the the party install Boris or JRM as leader. As I've said I think a remainer/leaver ticket would follow rather than the remainer/remainer we have at the moment. Javid/Gove would be my pick, both are fairly pragmatic and would carry enough of the party and members to get the job done. Only the hardcore remainers would be opposed and that's maybe 8 MPs.
It was obvious before the referendum that Russia was pushing Brexit. We are only seeing the dots being joined up now.
The site’s Leavers are being awfully quiet on this subject this morning.
I am surprised at the xenophobic nature of your comments regarding Russia.
Even if I do not approve of Putin, I certainly don’t tar the whole of the Russian people with the same brush.
Russia occupied a region (the Crimea) that is ethnically predominantly Russian. It was only removed from Russain and joined to the Ukraine by Stalin in 1954.
It would have been better to have held a plebiscite under the auspices on an international body, but there is no evidence that the Ukraine Government was willing to permit one. No-one has any real doubt that a plebiscite would have confirmed the desire of the majority of the Crimean population for Russian rule.
For this, Russia has been punished out of all proportion. The one good thing about Trump is that he has not embarked on the truly disastrous policies that Hillary Clinton was advocating in the region.
Russophobia is the commonest form of xenophobia.
Are you going to have a go at defending invading Dombass as well? For extra credit, try to do it with an argument that wouldn't also apply to Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia.
Dombass? Dumb ass? You win the Godwin Medal.
I will make a prediction.
The Ukraine is not sustainable. It will go the way of the Yugoslavia, and the USSR itself.
To make a country like the Ukraine work requires consideration & compromise for different cultures and viewpoints. That is in very short supply on both sides in the Ukraine.
I predict that the final boundaries (when settled) will find the Donbass in Russia. In fact, I suspect the final boundaries will be still more favourable to Russia.
It was obvious before the referendum that Russia was pushing Brexit. We are only seeing the dots being joined up now.
The site’s Leavers are being awfully quiet on this subject this morning.
I am surprised at the xenophobic nature of your comments regarding Russia.
Even if I do not approve of Putin, I certainly don’t tar the whole of the Russian people with the same brush.
Russia occupied a region (the Crimea) that is ethnically predominantly Russian. It was only removed from Russain and joined to the Ukraine by Stalin in 1954.
It would have been better to have held a plebiscite under the auspices on an international body, but there is no evidence that the Ukraine Government was willing to permit one. No-one has any real doubt that a plebiscite would have confirmed the desire of the majority of the Crimean population for Russian rule.
For this, Russia has been punished out of all proportion. The one good thing about Trump is that he has not embarked on the truly disastrous policies that Hillary Clinton was advocating in the region.
Russophobia is the commonest form of xenophobia.
What has Crimea and Hillary Clinton got to do with Putin bankrolling Brexit?
I must admit, I wan’t aware that your job was to monitor the contents of the blog, reprimanding individuals when they stray from the Gardenwalker tunes. I thought we were allowed to roam freely.
Still, as you are here, perhaps can we have a source for your claim about FDI, and perhaps you could properly normalise it so that we can see that it is specific to the UK. I think your claim has been efficiently debunked as Gardenbluster, but let’s have it completely dismembered.
Russophobia is the irrational hatred of Russians.
There is evidence of many external politicians intervening in the Brexit debate (most prominently Barack Obama).
I am worried that Alistair has just singled out just Russia as a malign force ... Russophobia.
It is fine to criticise one and all in an even-handed way, but that isn’t what is being done.
And I am showing that Russophobia is very common in the Remainer mindset by giving the example of the Crimea. The reaction of the EU to the secession of Crimea from the Ukraine was very different to the secession of Slovenia from Yugoslovai...
Phobia is an irrational fear. Concern about Russian military/political adventurism on European borders isn’t entirely irrational.
Obama publicly expressing an opinion on our plebiscite is of a rather different order than what is alleged to be a widespread campaign to destabilise western democracies.
Apparent sudden surge in generic Democrat support - 7 polls in immediate succession showing an average 8-point lead. Did Trump do anything especially annoying last week?
If you look over the last year, it seems rather like it keeps returning to an underlying 47-39 or so:
Phobia is an irrational fear. Concern about Russian military/political adventurism on European borders isn’t entirely irrational.
Obama publicly expressing an opinion on our plebiscite is of a rather different order than what is alleged to be a widespread campaign to destabilise western democracies.
“....alleged to be a widespread campaign to destabilise western democracies.”
Senator McCarthy, good to hear from you after all these years.
It was obvious before the referendum that Russia was pushing Brexit. We are only seeing the dots being joined up now.
The site’s Leavers are being awfully quiet on this subject this morning.
I am surprised at the xenophobic nature of your comments regarding Russia.
Even if I do not approve of Putin, I certainly don’t tar the whole of the Russian people with the same brush.
Russia occupied a region (the Crimea) that is ethnically predominantly Russian. It was only removed from Russain and joined to the Ukraine by Stalin in 1954.
It would have been better to have held a plebiscite under the auspices on an international body, but there is no evidence that the Ukraine Government was willing to permit one. No-one has any real doubt that a plebiscite would have confirmed the desire of the majority of the Crimean population for Russian rule.
For this, Russia has been punished out of all proportion. The one good thing about Trump is that he has not embarked on the truly disastrous policies that Hillary Clinton was advocating in the region.
Russophobia is the commonest form of xenophobia.
What has Crimea and Hillary Clinton got to do with Putin bankrolling Brexit?
I must admit, I wan’t aware that your job was to monitor the contents of the blog, reprimanding individuals when they stray from the Gardenwalker tunes. I thought we were allowed to roam freely.
Still, as you are here, perhaps can we have a source for your claim about FDI, and perhaps you could properly normalise it so that we can see that it is specific to the UK. I think your claim has been efficiently debunked as Gardenbluster, but let’s have it completely dismembered.
Russophobia is the irrational hatred of Russians.
There is evidence of many external politicians intervening in the Brexit debate (most prominently Barack Obama).
I am worried that Alistair has just singled out just Russia as a malign force ... Russophobia.
It is fine to criticise one and all in an even-handed way, but that isn’t what is being done.
And I am showing that Russophobia is very common in the Remainer mindset by giving the example of the Crimea. The reaction of the EU to the secession of Crimea from the Ukraine was very different to the secession of Slovenia from Yugoslovai.
Ukraine, four legs, good. Yugoslavia, two legs, bad.
The Ukraine is not sustainable. It will go the way of the Yugoslavia, and the USSR itself.
To make a country like the Ukraine work requires consideration & compromise for different cultures and viewpoints. That is in very short supply on both sides in the Ukraine.
I predict that the final boundaries (when settled) will find the Donbass in Russia. In fact, I suspect the final boundaries will be still more favourable to Russia.
Oh hi I've decided your country is unsustainable, it's OK for me to invade it now. Sucks to be you. If you oppose this, it's clearly a form of xenophobia.
Not while Corbyn is LotO. There will be no challenge and there will be no ejection. The ERG can choke on BINO with tears in their rheumy eyes.
Why would the government fall, the party can choose a new leader without going to the public.
I doubt if the government would survive such a process and then only if the new leader was prepared to work with the moderates in the party. anyone much further to the right of Hammond/May would not be able to keep the moderates on board. The notion you have that no deal preps would persuade the EU to take a different line is not credible.
I think May/Hammond are now losing the moderates and I'm not suggesting the the party install Boris or JRM as leader. As I've said I think a remainer/leaver ticket would follow rather than the remainer/remainer we have at the moment. Javid/Gove would be my pick, both are fairly pragmatic and would carry enough of the party and members to get the job done. Only the hardcore remainers would be opposed and that's maybe 8 MPs.
It depends upon who you are calling 'moderates'. I rather suspect some here view Soubry as a moderate.
So have any of our Remainers got anything to say now about FDI after their claims disintegrated in the last thread.
Namely that the fall in FDI from 2016 to 2017 was because in 2016 a couple of big multinational businesses registered in Britain were sold to multinational businesses registered in other countries.
And that business investment and gross fixed capital formation increased in 2017.
Nice attempt at a deflection there, what we Remainers are more nterested in at the moment is the Leavers' views on the stuff that's all over the Sunday Papers re Russian involvement in the referendum campaign. Any thoughts? Let me hazard a wild guess - "fake news"!
Russia occupied a region (the Crimea) that is ethnically predominantly Russian. It was only removed from Russain and joined to the Ukraine by Stalin in 1954.
By Khrushchev. Stalin died in 1953.
Those who bang the table and insist that the inhabitants of Crimea mostly view themselves as Ukrainians and are now under the foreign imperialist Russian yoke are either very ignorant or disingenuous. The vast majority in that part of the world think of themselves as Russian. The referendum on joining Russia was genuine. People should stop looking for fake causes for strife or war.
The Russian government's operation in Britain, codename "Brexit" - now that was real.
The Ukraine is not sustainable. It will go the way of the Yugoslavia, and the USSR itself.
To make a country like the Ukraine work requires consideration & compromise for different cultures and viewpoints. That is in very short supply on both sides in the Ukraine.
I predict that the final boundaries (when settled) will find the Donbass in Russia. In fact, I suspect the final boundaries will be still more favourable to Russia.
Oh hi I've decided your country is unsustainable, it's OK for me to invade it now. Sucks to be you. If you oppose this, it's clearly a form of xenophobia.
I can certainly understand that a country that’s been invaded three times since 1815 — and lost tens of millions of people and suffered many more losses than the Western Allies in WW — might be concerned about its borders.
Hillary Clinton was one of the prime advocates for intervention in Libya, Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan (it is all written down in her book ‘Hard Choices”).
If she was President, she would interfere in the Ukraine. I am sure it would have been as successful as the glorious interventions in Libya, Yemen, Iraq and Afghanistan.
In fact, it is lucky actually for the Remainers that Hillary was never President. There would have been a massive refugee crisis in the Ukraine on the very borders of the EU.
Ultimately, the Ukraine can’t sustain itself. It doesn’t have leaders of sufficient maturity. It is better if it is split up.
Phobia is an irrational fear. Concern about Russian military/political adventurism on European borders isn’t entirely irrational.
Obama publicly expressing an opinion on our plebiscite is of a rather different order than what is alleged to be a widespread campaign to destabilise western democracies.
“....alleged to be a widespread campaign to destabilise western democracies.”
Senator McCarthy, good to hear from you after all these years.
I was taking issue with your defence of Russian interference - if you want a separate argument about whether or not it’s proven, fine. I prefer to await the outcome of the Mueller investigation.
Russia occupied a region (the Crimea) that is ethnically predominantly Russian. It was only removed from Russain and joined to the Ukraine by Stalin in 1954.
By Khrushchev. Stalin died in 1953.
Those who bang the table and insist that the inhabitants of Crimea mostly view themselves as Ukrainians and are now under the foreign imperialist Russian yoke are either very ignorant or disingenuous. The vast majority in that part of the world think of themselves as Russian. The referendum on joining Russia was genuine. People should stop looking for fake causes for strife or war.
Agreed. I think Stalin started the policy and Khrushchev finished it off.
It was obvious before the referendum that Russia was pushing Brexit. We are only seeing the dots being joined up now.
The site’s Leavers are being awfully quiet on this subject this morning.
I am surprised at the xenophobic nature of your comments regarding Russia.
Even if I do not approve of Putin, I certainly don’t tar the whole of the Russian people with the same brush.
Russia occupied a region (the Crimea) that is ethnically predominantly Russian. It was only removed from Russain and joined to the Ukraine by Stalin in 1954.
It would have been better to have held a plebiscite under the auspices on an international body, but there is no evidence that the Ukraine Government was willing to permit one. No-one has any real doubt that a plebiscite would have confirmed the desire of the majority of the Crimean population for Russian rule.
For this, Russia has been punished out of all proportion. The one good thing about Trump is that he has not embarked on the truly disastrous policies that Hillary Clinton was advocating in the region.
Russophobia is the commonest form of xenophobia.
Are you going to have a go at defending invading Dombass as well? For extra credit, try to do it with an argument that wouldn't also apply to Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia.
If Kievan forces backed by NATO were to conquer Crimea (which won't happen), would you want the Russian majority expelled with great loss of life, just as large numbers of Germans were expelled from the Sudetenland by the Allies after the war's end?
Not while Corbyn is LotO. There will be no challenge and there will be no ejection. The ERG can choke on BINO with tears in their rheumy eyes.
Why would the government fall, the party can choose a new leader without going to the public.
I doubt if the government would survive such a process and then only if the new leader was prepared to work with the moderates in the party. anyone much further to the right of Hammond/May would not be able to keep the moderates on board. The notion you have that no deal preps would persuade the EU to take a different line is not credible.
I think May/Hammond are now losing the moderates and I'm not suggesting the the party install Boris or JRM as leader. As I've said I think a remainer/leaver ticket would follow rather than the remainer/remainer we have at the moment. Javid/Gove would be my pick, both are fairly pragmatic and would carry enough of the party and members to get the job done. Only the hardcore remainers would be opposed and that's maybe 8 MPs.
It depends upon who you are calling 'moderates'. I rather suspect some here view Soubry as a moderate.
Anyone who thinks Soubry is a moderate needs their head examining. She's an extreme EUphile.
You do spot that Corbyn is not interested by Europe, but underplay that. He will want to get it out of the way. That will determine what happens.
Врексит, as we now must call it now that we know who paid for it, is a mere bump on Corbyn's Shining Path. He doesn't give a fuck about it in comparison to the other Great Works which are part of his progam. For him, any Врексит will do so he can get it out of the way and get on with something which interests him more.
If true, then Corbyn is making a big mistake assuming he will just be able to get on with other matters.
Brexit is a like a black hole, sucking all political material into its dark heart. It will continue to do so for years.
For a start, the fall in public finances will cause Labour major, major issues with its plans for public spending.
The flames of possible treason charges are now lapping at the doors of Dominic Cummings (Vote Leave), Arron Banks (Leave.EU), and Michael Gove (who had Cummings as his spad for several years).
In the case of Banks, little could be more obvious than the man has it coming to him. Boris Johnson may soon feel the heat too. None of these four guys can take pressure well. Paul Dacre can take it, but he has resigned.
PS Is Isabel Oakeshott related to Walter Oakeshott?
Brexit seems to have been bankrolled by Putin, and pushed over the line by appeals to xenophobia and a brutally effective online propaganda effort.
The “will of the people” turns out to be another Brexit fraud.
Manipulated, very likely, but not a fraud. No one suggests that Putin interfered in the voting, either in Brexit, or in Trumpistan. Putin merely cleverly managed to support useful idiots willing to do his bidding.
While May and Hammond have been beyond lamentable in this negotiation, there is no doubt in my mind that Corbyn and McIRA would be worse. How would they square leaving the EU with being in a coalition with the SNP and their own rabid remainers.
I think moderate Tory MPs are now asking questions about the UK's fallback position in the event of a no deal and the answers from May and Hammond are pathetic. That is what will lead to their removal and replacement.
No 10/11 need to get on with WTO exit planning sooner rather than later or they will get forced out.
If May and Hammond go the government will fall and JCWBPM. The negotiations are going badly not because May is crap but because the hand is crap. There is a big majority among MPs and the public for a fairly soft Brexit - which would nicely reflect the close Referendum result. The idea that an ERG style no deal Brexit is feasible is laughable.
I didn't say that we should aim for a no deal Brexit, just that we need to prepare for it and the government aren't doing so. A lot of the reason we have a crap hand is because we have not done the hard work on "WTO exit" planning. The EU knows we have no fallback position which won't irreparably harm the economy so they have no need to give any ground. If the government had spent the last two years getting the UK's international trading position resolved, getting UK regulatory bodies recognised internationally and preparing for a much larger customs border for 70% more trade volume and beggining to work towards a customs pre-clearance/smart border infrastructure for key industries (same as the US/Canada border) the EU would be giving much more ground, especially on customs.
May and Hammond have failed to prepare the UK and for that a price needs to be paid.
The problem with that strategy is that No Deal is the worst possible "deal". Nothing the EU offers us will ever be as bad. Threatening the worst possible outcome for us would be silly. The EU would just say, come back when you are ready to talk. It won't take long.
The UK's BATNA (best alternative to negotiated agreement) was to refuse to budge or cooperate until it got its way. That ship sailed with the A50 notification.
Russia occupied a region (the Crimea) that is ethnically predominantly Russian. It was only removed from Russain and joined to the Ukraine by Stalin in 1954.
By Khrushchev. Stalin died in 1953.
Those who bang the table and insist that the inhabitants of Crimea mostly view themselves as Ukrainians and are now under the foreign imperialist Russian yoke are either very ignorant or disingenuous. The vast majority in that part of the world think of themselves as Russian. The referendum on joining Russia was genuine. People should stop looking for fake causes for strife or war.
Agreed. I think Stalin started the policy and Khrushchev finished it off.
Sounds a bit like much of the Soviet Union.
'Lenin started the policy, Gorbachev/reality finished it off.'
The flames of possible treason charges are now lapping at the doors of Dominic Cummings (Vote Leave), Arron Banks (Leave.EU), and Michael Gove (who had Cummings as his spad for several years).
In the case of Banks, little could be more obvious than the man has it coming to him. Boris Johnson may soon feel the heat too. None of these four guys can take pressure well. Paul Dacre can take it, but he has resigned.
PS Is Isabel Oakeshott related to Walter Oakeshott?
Brexit seems to have been bankrolled by Putin, and pushed over the line by appeals to xenophobia and a brutally effective online propaganda effort.
The “will of the people” turns out to be another Brexit fraud.
Manipulated, very likely, but not a fraud. No one suggests that Putin interfered in the voting, either in Brexit, or in Trumpistan. Putin merely cleverly managed to support useful idiots willing to do his bidding.
The idea that the will of the people is behind Brexit and so we must do it, is a Brexit fraud.
Just like the NHS money, the ease of exit, the idea that BMW makers will come to our rescue, etc.
Brexit is a platform of lies, bankrolled (and propagandised) by Putin, and won only on the back of anti-immigrant sentiment.
The truth is its the Irish economy that threatens to take the hit, not the NI economy..
Add to that multiple customs checks for Irish cargo transiting the British land bridge and some of their businesses are seriously screwed.
Nowhere near as much as it used to. We are Ireland's second largest export market, but at 15% rather than the 90% it was before joining the EEC. There are also now direct ferries from Dublin to Antwerp, including the new one nicknamed Brexit Buster:
It does seem as if the only country not preparing its ports for Brexit is our own one. While I agree incompetence is the likely cause, we should consider it a possibility that BINO will be forced by lack of preparation.
The truth is its the Irish economy that threatens to take the hit, not the NI economy..
Add to that multiple customs checks for Irish cargo transiting the British land bridge and some of their businesses are seriously screwed.
Nowhere near as much as it used to. We are Ireland's second largest export market, but at 15% rather than the 90% it was before joining the EEC. There are also now direct ferries from Dublin to Antwerp, including the new one nicknamed Brexit Buster:
It does seem as if the only country not preparing its ports for Brexit is our own one. While I agree incompetence is the likely cause, we should consider it a possibility that BINO will be forced by lack of preparation.
Russia occupied a region (the Crimea) that is ethnically predominantly Russian. It was only removed from Russain and joined to the Ukraine by Stalin in 1954.
By Khrushchev. Stalin died in 1953.
Those who bang the table and insist that the inhabitants of Crimea mostly view themselves as Ukrainians and are now under the foreign imperialist Russian yoke are either very ignorant or disingenuous. The vast majority in that part of the world think of themselves as Russian. The referendum on joining Russia was genuine. People should stop looking for fake causes for strife or war....
Apparent sudden surge in generic Democrat support - 7 polls in immediate succession showing an average 8-point lead. Did Trump do anything especially annoying last week?
Comments
What a bizarre post.
- Charles and daodao, yes, I don't care about the nationality of the judges arbitrating trade disputes - on the whole I trust judges to decide on the law, whether they're British or German or Spanish. The ECJ is fine with me, and it's not an issue with more than a tiny fragment of voters. The same goes for the European Arrest Warrant - most people feel the right to retain each others' suspected crooks is not worth having.
- CD13: if we're all in the customs union we can't sign up to our own special tariff deals. But IMO they're a bit of a fantasy anyway, if we want to stick to current standards as both major parties say. Yes, NI would still have free movement - is immigration a big issue in Ulster? Reasonably flexible non-free movement for the rest of GB with the capability to vary with economic circumstances would be fairly acceptable all round, I reckon - most British voters just want to feel it's coming under control, not some sort of Trumpian wall. Similarly, the Continent would like to have British expertise when they want it, but aren't desperate to have everyone.
- Icarus: I agree that forcing Irish union would be a terrible idea leading to endless trouble. But forcing a continuation of current arrangements and accepting a long-term drift would probably be accepted by most. I'm factoring in the DUP being indignant. Tough.
JackW: I agree that studied ambiguity is probably the best Opposition policy for now in tactical terms. If I was in the Shadow Cabinet I wouldn't be publishing this. But it's important (to us and to business and in general terms to voters) to think about where we'd be heading if we do get in.
Polling shows support for the current trajectory falling.
Why doesn't the opposition, you know, oppose?
The man is an orange dotard. That Johnson now claims to see a model worth following is simply another reason Johnson should be tarred and feathered rather than cosseted in ministerial office.
But it's all very technical (though critically important) such as the EEA doesn't include a customs union. I suspect almost all the electorate don't understand these issues and a good many MPs may not either.
The EEA amendment and the Labour alternative will both fail on Tuesday but as Starmer says, there will be another chance with the Trade Bill in a few weeks time when the technical issues may be better understood.
I work with a chap who is 72 and has never been off this island. I think he's missed some great opportunities to travel, but it's his life, he can do what he likes, and it doesn't seem to affect his political views one way or another. (New labourish I'd say)
I have visited France by the way, and Germany, spain, Australia and China. Not well travelled compared to some of the jet setters on here, but it does mean...Nothing.
You seem obsessive in asking certain people about it though, or commenting about them not having done so, repeatedly. If it's not snobbery behind it, what is? Your tone when commenting on those who haven't makes it very clear you think it's significant in some way. And that is rather odd.
Think you understate the trade union agenda and workers rights reform, which will be the at the heart of of whatever is decided.
You also overlook the HoC arithmetic. Corbyn will be dependent on John Woodcock et. al. to pass anything. That too will have an impact. Corbyn relationship with the Commons will mirror Trumps relationship with Congress.
You do spot that Corbyn is not interested by Europe, but underplay that. He will want to get it out of the way. That will determine what happens.
At sone point they will be more decisive, if they can resolve internal issues, but not until they have to.
I also think the objection to EEA on the ground that Norway, Iceand and Lichtenstein aren’t in a customs union with the EU, and therefore we couldn’t have both, is specious. If we asked for both who would deny it to us, subject to continued FOM?
Starmer needs to persuade Corbyn on EEA by mid-July. That’s it.
https://www.politico.eu/article/typhoon-trump-blows-g7-off-course/
A WTO Brexit could find us alone in a very unfriendly world.
In the case of Banks, little could be more obvious than the man has it coming to him. Boris Johnson may soon feel the heat too. None of these four guys can take pressure well. Paul Dacre can take it, but he has resigned.
Events of the next week and fortnight will bring the powers of Commons Speaker John Bercow to the fore. Word is that Isabel Oakeshott has sought his protection. (Other whistleblowers have run to the Speaker in the past, with little or no media attention. Basically if you are on a select committee's witness list - which is often longer than the list of witnesses who are actually called - then any officials who are hassling you will get into bloody big trouble if they continue to try to influence or nobble you off their own bat).
The Leave traitors are likely to want Bercow out and to replace him with one of their own. Fast. His nine years are up on 22 June, so ideally they want him to leave on or before that date (any time from now would do) and to say that he always planned to. Similarly in 1976 when Harold Wilson was forced out of office by traitors resigned there was a declaration that he had previously told the monarch that he had decided to resign at around that time, blah blah.
Is there a book on when Bercow will leave office?
PS Is Isabel Oakeshott related to Walter Oakeshott?
If you haven't seen the Starmer interview on Marr this morning, I suggest you watch it. It changed my mind. Until then, I would have agreed with you.
Labour will not be able to get an deal on freedom of movement, even restricting it mainly to skilled workers, as the EU takes an all or nothing approach to it and that applies equally to the single market. So no difference under Corbyn to the Tories there and with most Labour seats voting Leave largely to tighten immigration controls and Corbyn ideologically opposed to the single market we would still leave the EEA.
Corbyn has made clear he will not accept ECJ unfettered jurisdiction over UK law so no difference with the Tories there either.
Even if Ulster remained inside the single market that would not enable the UK to too and even if most Northern Irish voters would accept that the DUP would not and would thus vote down a Corbyn government so Corbyn would need to make clear net gains in MPs from the Tories to become PM.
So in practical terms a Corbyn Brexit would be no different to a May Brexit bar he would stay in a Customs Union but not the Customs Union which is not far from May's agreement to regulatory alignment with the EU and to collect tariffs for the EU.
Only the LDs and Greens of the GB wide parties and Labour and Tory rebels like Umunna and Soubry take a clearly distinct line from May by backing staying in the Single Market and the Customs Union.
One aspect of the pressure that having the SM in NI would exert in GB in your scenario is that many unskilled migrants from Eastern Europe would try to get to GB from NI and there would be a lot of work for immigration officers at NI to GB ports.
The same reason that the Catholic Church and the Anglican Church have suggested that car washes need the interest of concerned individuals to combat forced labour.
https://tinyurl.com/ychr34r9
It can surely not have escaped the notice of even the dimmest that those working in car washes often do not speak much english and seem very miserable.
I for one no longer use them for that reason.
Seems pretty clear though now that Oakeshott has gone to the Sunday Times to pre-empt allegations of conspiracy against her before the Aaron Banks news leaked out in the Observer.
Brexit seems to have been bankrolled by Putin, and pushed over the line by appeals to xenophobia and a brutally effective online propaganda effort.
The “will of the people” turns out to be another Brexit fraud.
The truth is its the Irish economy that threatens to take the hit, not the NI economy. The trade is hugely South-North not the other way. The British government should grow a spine and remind the EU and indeed the Irish government about that fact. As for the putting peace at risk its a load of balls, we are no longer in a peace process, its politics, as screwed up as it is. If you continue to treat it as some kind of fragile object then you only encourage this idea that either side (both sides Nick Palmer, are still capable), rather than making it clear that they needn't bother their holes. We've blown up the border issue way beyond its consequences in practice for UK territory and in doing so, have tied the thing in knots. To those who think that the Brexit issue will lead to some kind of large realignment in NI politics, it won't. I know this may come as shock to the middle class fools that are the commentariat, but nationality will dominate that artificial construct of the EU every single time.
As for the talk in the media today about Arron Banks etc, this is not all of it by any means. Whether Banks is quite as wealthy as his bankrolling levels for Leave.EU may warrant scrutiny for example. I did mention the mysterious foreign investments in UK Shell companies, which despite being told I was a conspiracy theorist, a number of months later the UK government closed such a loophole to help shut down routes for dodge money from Russia. I did call Farage and his ilk traitors to the country. I did say some of the whole business with Trump and his links to third party countries would find its way close to home.
You can add the above paragraph's contents in whatever combination you like.
The site’s Leavers are being awfully quiet on this subject this morning.
1) There was no Russian involvement
2) Even if there was any involvement there was no impact on the result
3) Tumbleweed
I think moderate Tory MPs are now asking questions about the UK's fallback position in the event of a no deal and the answers from May and Hammond are pathetic. That is what will lead to their removal and replacement.
No 10/11 need to get on with WTO exit planning sooner rather than later or they will get forced out.
I realised immediately that this wasn't a problem with pronunciation but my companion didn't 'Yes please an e-x-p-r-e-s-s-o'.
'A small coffee without milk' I added helpfully. 'We don't do SMALL coffees without milk' she said with a hint of ridicule. 'We do white coffee or black coffee or Cafetiere but that'll cost you an extra 50p'
Rules were put in place because they were thought to be the best way of keeping people alive based on years of experience. If the fire teams on site had immediately broken those rules and people had died in stairwells there would have been massive criticism. But once it became clear that the rules were not going to do the job the response was to break the rules that kept firefighters safe in order to try and save more lives.
I can't even begin to imagine what sort of temperament you have to have to voluntarily go into a tower block that is a raging inferno and the idea that afterwards we should be criticising people because the rules that they were being told to follow turned out to be wrong seems to me to be perverse.
/Pedant
Namely that the fall in FDI from 2016 to 2017 was because in 2016 a couple of big multinational businesses registered in Britain were sold to multinational businesses registered in other countries.
And that business investment and gross fixed capital formation increased in 2017.
By the way I assume your friend meant 'eSpresso.
Even if I do not approve of Putin, I certainly don’t tar the whole of the Russian people with the same brush.
Russia occupied a region (the Crimea) that is ethnically predominantly Russian. It was only removed from Russain and joined to the Ukraine by Stalin in 1954.
It would have been better to have held a plebiscite under the auspices on an international body, but there is no evidence that the Ukraine Government was willing to permit one. No-one has any real doubt that a plebiscite would have confirmed the desire of the majority of the Crimean population for Russian rule.
For this, Russia has been punished out of all proportion. The one good thing about Trump is that he has not embarked on the truly disastrous policies that Hillary Clinton was advocating in the region.
Russophobia is the commonest form of xenophobia.
May and Hammond have failed to prepare the UK and for that a price needs to be paid.
I cannot dispute your other figures but they seem at odds with a stalled economy.
No 10/11 need to get on with WTO exit planning sooner rather than later or they will get forced out.
Not while Corbyn is LotO. There will be no challenge and there will be no ejection. The ERG can choke on BINO with tears in their rheumy eyes.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
What we need is increasing business investment and increasing gross fixed capital formation - both of which we have had during the last two years.
As to the stalled economy the GDP figures are mediocre but they have been for years and are themselves at odds with the employment and tax receipts data.
Chris Leslie pushes the EEA as the best option for the UK economy
I was never brought up in the medium of Welsh and I have been surprised yet gratified at the way young people, particularly in that part of the world are able to speak and understand both English and Welsh equally well, so I am not surprised that the waitress took umbrage.
Still, as you are here, perhaps can we have a source for your claim about FDI, and perhaps you could properly normalise it so that we can see that it is specific to the UK. I think your claim has been efficiently debunked as Gardenbluster, but let’s have it completely dismembered.
Russophobia is the irrational hatred of Russians.
There is evidence of many external politicians intervening in the Brexit debate (most prominently Barack Obama).
I am worried that Alistair has just singled out just Russia as a malign force ... Russophobia.
It is fine to criticise one and all in an even-handed way, but that isn’t what is being done.
And I am showing that Russophobia is very common in the Remainer mindset by giving the example of the Crimea. The reaction of the EU to the secession of Crimea from the Ukraine was very different to the secession of Slovenia from Yugoslovai.
Ukraine, four legs, good. Yugoslavia, two legs, bad.
I will make a prediction.
The Ukraine is not sustainable. It will go the way of the Yugoslavia, and the USSR itself.
To make a country like the Ukraine work requires consideration & compromise for different cultures and viewpoints. That is in very short supply on both sides in the Ukraine.
I predict that the final boundaries (when settled) will find the Donbass in Russia. In fact, I suspect the final boundaries will be still more favourable to Russia.
Obama publicly expressing an opinion on our plebiscite is of a rather different order than what is alleged to be a widespread campaign to destabilise western democracies.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls
Senator McCarthy, good to hear from you after all these years.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN1FB2CT
But by all means, continue with your Russian apologist non sequiturs.
Those who bang the table and insist that the inhabitants of Crimea mostly view themselves as Ukrainians and are now under the foreign imperialist Russian yoke are either very ignorant or disingenuous. The vast majority in that part of the world think of themselves as Russian. The referendum on joining Russia was genuine. People should stop looking for fake causes for strife or war.
The Russian government's operation in Britain, codename "Brexit" - now that was real.
I can certainly understand that a country that’s been invaded three times since 1815 — and lost tens of millions of people and suffered many more losses than the Western Allies in WW — might be concerned about its borders.
Hillary Clinton was one of the prime advocates for intervention in Libya, Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan (it is all written down in her book ‘Hard Choices”).
If she was President, she would interfere in the Ukraine. I am sure it would have been as successful as the glorious interventions in Libya, Yemen, Iraq and Afghanistan.
In fact, it is lucky actually for the Remainers that Hillary was never President. There would have been a massive refugee crisis in the Ukraine on the very borders of the EU.
Ultimately, the Ukraine can’t sustain itself. It doesn’t have leaders of sufficient maturity. It is better if it is split up.
I prefer to await the outcome of the Mueller investigation.
Brexit is a like a black hole, sucking all political material into its dark heart. It will continue to do so for years.
For a start, the fall in public finances will cause Labour major, major issues with its plans for public spending.
The UK's BATNA (best alternative to negotiated agreement) was to refuse to budge or cooperate until it got its way. That ship sailed with the A50 notification.
'Lenin started the policy, Gorbachev/reality finished it off.'
Just like the NHS money, the ease of exit, the idea that BMW makers will come to our rescue, etc.
Brexit is a platform of lies, bankrolled (and propagandised) by Putin, and won only on the back of anti-immigrant sentiment.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-busting-ferry-launched-from-dublin-port-1.3468760
It does seem as if the only country not preparing its ports for Brexit is our own one. While I agree incompetence is the likely cause, we should consider it a possibility that BINO will be forced by lack of preparation.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea#History