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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Peace in our time but not for long as Mrs May will soon run ou

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited June 11 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Peace in our time but not for long as Mrs May will soon run out of road to kick the can

Here it is – “unity amendment”“Customs Arrangement as part of the framework for the future partnership”

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,984
    First :smiley:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713
    edited June 11
    Oh FFS I am sick of fudge.

    What is even the point of all this can kicking? It's not buying us more time it seems, just using up our time.

    And that point holds just as true for the Tories trying to stave off a confrontation between their various factions.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 780
    Having a lovely evening at the Tower Hotel in London. Was an awful day but got a nice glass of French Rose and enjoying the sunset!

    Easy to forget about Brexit in these moments.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,557
    May and Hammond are the worst peacetime leadership duo we have ever had. Worse than Blair and Brown.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,188
    edited June 11
    The basics of the deal were already agreed in December ie citizens' rights, the exit bill and regulatory alignment to avoid a hard border in Ireland. The latter needs more work to ensure the transition period (though the new 'customs arrangement' may help and if Parliament votes to stay in a Customs Union that could resolve the Irish issue albeit preventing new trade deals) but the outline of the exit deal is there.

    Unless Parliament votes to stay in the EEA this week we will need a Free Trade deal still. A Free Trade deal is not going to happen by Brexit next March but that was never likely given Canada took seven years to negotiate its deal with the EU.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713
    MaxPB said:

    May and Hammond are the worst peacetime leadership duo we have ever had. Worse than Blair and Brown.

    Is there evidence that Hammond is so influential as for it to be a 'duo'? Or is he doing his own thing just like the other members of the Cabinet appear to be doing?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,804
    Well that's it, disaster is guaranteed.

    The most terrible word in politics has been mentioned.

    Letwin.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,851
    HYUFD said:

    The basics of the deal were already agreed in December ie citizens' rights, the exit bill and regulatory alignment to avoid a hard border in Ireland. The latter needs more work to ensure the transition period (though if Parliament votes to stay in a Customs Union that could resolve the Irish issue while preventing new trade deals) but the outline of the exit deal is there.

    Unless Parliament votes for the EEA deal this week we will need a Free Trade deal still. A Free Trade deal is not going to happen by next March but that was never likely given Canada took seven years to negotiate its deal with the EU.

    There’s going to be a lot of transitioning and then, in 2022, the government runs out of road.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,494
    MaxPB said:

    May and Hammond are the worst peacetime leadership duo we have ever had. Worse than Blair and Brown.

    They aren't glorious. However they have been handed a very difficult task that is, frankly, perhaps beyond any leader. But they could certainly have done better.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,585
    kle4 said:

    Oh FFS I am sick of fudge.

    What is even the point of all this can kicking? It's not buying us more time it seems, just using up our time.

    And that point holds just as true for the Tories trying to stave off a confrontation between their various factions.

    Isn’t May’s strategy to delay for so long that eventually she can just present Parliament with a fair accompli, and dare them to vote it down?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,557

    MaxPB said:

    May and Hammond are the worst peacetime leadership duo we have ever had. Worse than Blair and Brown.

    They aren't glorious. However they have been handed a very difficult task that is, frankly, perhaps beyond any leader. But they could certainly have done better.
    The lack of no deal leave planning is beyond the pale. They need to pay the price for that level of negligence.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,189
    kle4 said:

    Oh FFS I am sick of fudge.

    What is even the point of all this can kicking? It's not buying us more time it seems, just using up our time.

    +1
    Bring on the no deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713
    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    Oh FFS I am sick of fudge.

    What is even the point of all this can kicking? It's not buying us more time it seems, just using up our time.

    And that point holds just as true for the Tories trying to stave off a confrontation between their various factions.

    Isn’t May’s strategy to delay for so long that eventually she can just present Parliament with a fair accompli, and dare them to vote it down?
    Maybe, but that's only one aspect of this, the other is getting the EU on board with her strategy, and so far they don't seem particularly keen on things she is wasting political capital on.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,963

    Well that's it, disaster is guaranteed.

    The most terrible word in politics has been mentioned.

    Letwin.

    Very unfair on Olly.

    I spoke to someone who has worked for every Tory leader since Thatcher and I mentioned Olly Letwin's disasters.

    He said Letwin's not interested in personal glory, he's prepared to be the fall guy when PMs float a ballon.

    If Letwin is as incompetent as people think do you honestly let Thatcher would have kept on promoting him?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,557
    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    Oh FFS I am sick of fudge.

    What is even the point of all this can kicking? It's not buying us more time it seems, just using up our time.

    And that point holds just as true for the Tories trying to stave off a confrontation between their various factions.

    Isn’t May’s strategy to delay for so long that eventually she can just present Parliament with a fair accompli, and dare them to vote it down?
    Which is why the party needs to bring her down now and replace her with someone competent.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,487

    The Remainers desire to water-down Brexit results in the hardest of hard Brexit.

    (definition of 'irony' in future dictionaries)

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,679
    edited June 11

    Well that's it, disaster is guaranteed.

    The most terrible word in politics has been mentioned.

    Letwin.

    I fear you may be right. Wasn't he previously seen, resplendent in yellow trousers, cooking up the Levenson press-gagging thing over pizza in Ed Miliband's office?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,804
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    May and Hammond are the worst peacetime leadership duo we have ever had. Worse than Blair and Brown.

    They aren't glorious. However they have been handed a very difficult task that is, frankly, perhaps beyond any leader. But they could certainly have done better.
    The lack of no deal leave planning is beyond the pale. They need to pay the price for that level of negligence.
    It seems that none of our politicians are capable of either proper planning or attention to detail.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,188
    edited June 11
    MaxPB said:

    May and Hammond are the worst peacetime leadership duo we have ever had. Worse than Blair and Brown.

    May and Hammond were left with Brexit and an economy still not with its finances fully repaired. They have made progress on the former in at least completing Phase 1 of the talks and have at least tried to be prudent in terms of the latter.

    John Major left Blair and Brown with a strong and growing economy and a government that had won the Gulf War on the basis of a strong international coalition, they left office with unemployment rocketing, the country heading for bankruptcy and a deeply unpopular war which took years to resolve and which half the UK's allies refused to partake in.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,148
    FWIW I saw a fascinating article in an Irish paper, I think it was on Twitter (it might even have been on here) and cannot rediscover it.

    Essentially the very eloquent writer said a lot of Irish pundits (like him) now feel Barnier has gone too far (trying to annex Northern Ireland, divide the UK - something no country in the world would accept), and has made the chances of No Deal much greater than they should be.

    And the greatest fear of the Irish is No Deal at all. That would macerate the Irish economy.

    Was it on here? Anyway, well worth reading. The Irish (or at least some of them) have realised they are being used by the EU to fuck the Brits, and the EU doesn't especially care if Ireland is severely damaged in the process, like a crowbar that gets broken, and thrown away, by a burglar intent on stealing jewels worth a whole lot more.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,557
    The worst part is that the government should have started to prepare for a very narrow trade deal with the EU and begun the laborious process of getting our regulatory bodies international recognition so that the planes still flew and nuclear plants stayed on after Brexit day. These technical details seem to have been completely ignored by May and Hammond. They seem so interested in winning the air war they neglected to remember that it's ground troops that give one a lasting victory.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,750
    SeanT said:

    And the greatest fear of the Irish is No Deal at all. That would macerate the Irish economy.

    Was it on here? Anyway, well worth reading. The Irish (or at least some of them) have realised they are being used by the EU to fuck the Brits, and the EU doesn't especially care if Ireland is severely damaged in the process, like a crowbar that gets broken, and thrown away, by a burglar intent on stealing jewels worth a whole lot more.

    Like Brexiteers with the UK

    No deal will macerate our economy. And they don't care.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713
    SeanT said:

    The Irish (or at least some of them) have realised they are being used by the EU to fuck the Brits, and the EU doesn't especially care if Ireland is severely damaged in the process, like a crowbar that gets broken, and thrown away, by a burglar intent on stealing jewels worth a whole lot more.

    Even if it is true they think that (be it only some or most) there doesn't seem much they can do about it - they are not about to break ranks. Indeed, it might only motivate them to push us even more, since us capitulating becomes the only way out.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,750
    edited June 11
    MaxPB said:

    The worst part is that the government should have started to prepare for a very narrow trade deal with the EU and begun the laborious process of getting our regulatory bodies international recognition so that the planes still flew and nuclear plants stayed on after Brexit day. These technical details seem to have been completely ignored by May and Hammond. They seem so interested in winning the air war they neglected to remember that it's ground troops that give one a lasting victory.

    Brexiteers told them these things were not important

    Easiest deal in history...

    And Brexiteer rewriting of history to make those who warned and campaigned against it the villains is as doomed as the project itself
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,861
    kle4 said:

    Oh FFS I am sick of fudge.

    What is even the point of all this can kicking? It's not buying us more time it seems, just using up our time.

    And that point holds just as true for the Tories trying to stave off a confrontation between their various factions.

    'tis default mode for politicians when they encounter a problem they cannot solve.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,487
    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    The worst part is that the government should have started to prepare for a very narrow trade deal with the EU and begun the laborious process of getting our regulatory bodies international recognition so that the planes still flew and nuclear plants stayed on after Brexit day. These technical details seem to have been completely ignored by May and Hammond. They seem so interested in winning the air war they neglected to remember that it's ground troops that give one a lasting victory.

    Brexiteers told them these things were not important

    Easiest deal in history...

    And Brexiteer rewriting of it to make those who warned and campaigned against it the villains is as doomed as the project itself

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,557
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    The Irish (or at least some of them) have realised they are being used by the EU to fuck the Brits, and the EU doesn't especially care if Ireland is severely damaged in the process, like a crowbar that gets broken, and thrown away, by a burglar intent on stealing jewels worth a whole lot more.

    Even if it is true they think that (be it only some or most) there doesn't seem much they can do about it - they are not about to break ranks. Indeed, it might only motivate them to push us even more, since us capitulating becomes the only way out.
    The solution is what most agreed on the last thread, keep the RoI -> NI border open for all people and goods then double/triple dare the EU to stop Irish people in the north from travelling to the south as they see fit.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,046

    MaxPB said:

    May and Hammond are the worst peacetime leadership duo we have ever had. Worse than Blair and Brown.

    They aren't glorious. However they have been handed a very difficult task that is, frankly, perhaps beyond any leader. But they could certainly have done better.
    She failed to do the most basic thing that would have prevented No Deal which was to prepare for No Deal.

    In order to be taken seriously in a negotiation you need the other party to think you are prepared to walk away. That no deal would be better than a bad deal. You don't do that by hollow platitudes that simply piss off people but achieve nothing you do that by preparing for a Plan B.

    Having a Plan B doesn't mean that is your desired outcome. It just means you're not screwed if you don't get Plan A.

    We didn't do that so now the EU quite frankly are looking at us like vultures do ... and who can blame them?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,714
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Just realised Brexit is likely to dominate British political debate for the next three-to-five years. Maybe ten years.

    Oh god.

    I remember predicting that. ;)
    I might have to emigrate until it is over. It's just so relentless and repetitive.
    Soon there won't be a PBBrexiteer left in the UK, they will all be in California, Spain, the UAE, Australia, Singapore etc.

    Sunil may be the only PB Leave voter still sticking it out in Blighty!
    Sunil's only here until he's exhausted the country's trains and trams. After that, he'll head somewhere else.
    "...and quietly, without any fuss, the trains were going out..." Arthur C. Clarke, "The Nine Billion Trains Of God"

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,750

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis

    Where the fuck have you been?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,557
    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    The worst part is that the government should have started to prepare for a very narrow trade deal with the EU and begun the laborious process of getting our regulatory bodies international recognition so that the planes still flew and nuclear plants stayed on after Brexit day. These technical details seem to have been completely ignored by May and Hammond. They seem so interested in winning the air war they neglected to remember that it's ground troops that give one a lasting victory.

    Brexiteers told them these things were not important

    Easiest deal in history...

    And Brexiteer rewriting of history to make those who warned and campaigned against it the villains is as doomed as the project itself
    May - remainer
    Hammond - remainer

    Davis has no power, he's an idiot for not resigning when he was denied the opportunity to plan for no deal Brexit, but that's about it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,861
    MaxPB said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    Oh FFS I am sick of fudge.

    What is even the point of all this can kicking? It's not buying us more time it seems, just using up our time.

    And that point holds just as true for the Tories trying to stave off a confrontation between their various factions.

    Isn’t May’s strategy to delay for so long that eventually she can just present Parliament with a fair accompli, and dare them to vote it down?
    Which is why the party needs to bring her down now and replace her with someone competent.
    That sounded promising until those last three words.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,963

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    The worst part is that the government should have started to prepare for a very narrow trade deal with the EU and begun the laborious process of getting our regulatory bodies international recognition so that the planes still flew and nuclear plants stayed on after Brexit day. These technical details seem to have been completely ignored by May and Hammond. They seem so interested in winning the air war they neglected to remember that it's ground troops that give one a lasting victory.

    Brexiteers told them these things were not important

    Easiest deal in history...

    And Brexiteer rewriting of it to make those who warned and campaigned against it the villains is as doomed as the project itself

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis isn’t a Brexiteer?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 10,635
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    The Irish (or at least some of them) have realised they are being used by the EU to fuck the Brits, and the EU doesn't especially care if Ireland is severely damaged in the process, like a crowbar that gets broken, and thrown away, by a burglar intent on stealing jewels worth a whole lot more.

    Even if it is true they think that (be it only some or most) there doesn't seem much they can do about it - they are not about to break ranks. Indeed, it might only motivate them to push us even more, since us capitulating becomes the only way out.
    The solution is what most agreed on the last thread, keep the RoI -> NI border open for all people and goods then double/triple dare the EU to stop Irish people in the north from travelling to the south as they see fit.
    It’s so blinking obvious that it should be being shouted from the rooftops.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,285
    MaxPB said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    Oh FFS I am sick of fudge.

    What is even the point of all this can kicking? It's not buying us more time it seems, just using up our time.

    And that point holds just as true for the Tories trying to stave off a confrontation between their various factions.

    Isn’t May’s strategy to delay for so long that eventually she can just present Parliament with a fair accompli, and dare them to vote it down?
    Which is why the party needs to bring her down now and replace her with someone competent.
    I wouldn't say I disagree, but who do you have in mind as competent?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,557
    Scott_P said:

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis

    Where the fuck have you been?
    So when the PM stopped the government from planning for no deal Brexit and the Chancellor refused to set aside money for it in 2016, they were leavers?

    Clueless as every Scott. I keep saying it, you need to stick to copying from twatter. You can't do original thought.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 15,212
    Scott_P said:

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis

    Where the fuck have you been?
    Davis is not making any decisions. That was made clear back in December. This is all in May's court.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,188

    MaxPB said:

    May and Hammond are the worst peacetime leadership duo we have ever had. Worse than Blair and Brown.

    They aren't glorious. However they have been handed a very difficult task that is, frankly, perhaps beyond any leader. But they could certainly have done better.
    She failed to do the most basic thing that would have prevented No Deal which was to prepare for No Deal.

    In order to be taken seriously in a negotiation you need the other party to think you are prepared to walk away. That no deal would be better than a bad deal. You don't do that by hollow platitudes that simply piss off people but achieve nothing you do that by preparing for a Plan B.

    Having a Plan B doesn't mean that is your desired outcome. It just means you're not screwed if you don't get Plan A.

    We didn't do that so now the EU quite frankly are looking at us like vultures do ... and who can blame them?
    The alternative to a deal is WTO terms, whether you prepare for it or not it will make little difference to the economy beyond the immediate practicalities.


  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,046
    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    The worst part is that the government should have started to prepare for a very narrow trade deal with the EU and begun the laborious process of getting our regulatory bodies international recognition so that the planes still flew and nuclear plants stayed on after Brexit day. These technical details seem to have been completely ignored by May and Hammond. They seem so interested in winning the air war they neglected to remember that it's ground troops that give one a lasting victory.

    Brexiteers told them these things were not important

    Easiest deal in history...

    And Brexiteer rewriting of history to make those who warned and campaigned against it the villains is as doomed as the project itself
    Brexiteers pointed out many of these issues. The Remainers in charge ignored them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Oh FFS I am sick of fudge.

    What is even the point of all this can kicking? It's not buying us more time it seems, just using up our time.

    And that point holds just as true for the Tories trying to stave off a confrontation between their various factions.

    'tis default mode for politicians when they encounter a problem they cannot solve.
    It is a damn difficult problem, but it's been 2 years since she came to power, and kicking the can doesn't seem to be helping.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,148
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    And the greatest fear of the Irish is No Deal at all. That would macerate the Irish economy.

    Was it on here? Anyway, well worth reading. The Irish (or at least some of them) have realised they are being used by the EU to fuck the Brits, and the EU doesn't especially care if Ireland is severely damaged in the process, like a crowbar that gets broken, and thrown away, by a burglar intent on stealing jewels worth a whole lot more.

    Like Brexiteers with the UK

    No deal will macerate our economy. And they don't care.
    I agree.

    And you know what? After the way the EU has behaved during Brexit, and also the way it has behaved toward the new Italian government, and Poland, and Hungary, I would vote LEAVE all over again.

    The EU is a superstate now actively trying to destroy meaningful democracy and any opposition to its role, in its constituent nations. It is repulsive.

    e.g. You CANNOT be an Italian Finance Minister with a skeptical take on the euro. It is impermissible. If you do take this position, you will be sacked.

    This is not a benign economic bloc, dedicated to free trade blah blah, this is a pan-continental theocracy, ruled by an elite clerisy in Belgium. It is China without the surging prosperity.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,963
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis

    Where the fuck have you been?
    So when the PM stopped the government from planning for no deal Brexit and the Chancellor refused to set aside money for it in 2016, they were leavers?

    Clueless as every Scott. I keep saying it, you need to stick to copying from twatter. You can't do original thought.
    David Davis was Brexit Secretary 8 months before Mrs May triggered Article 50.

    You Leavers own this.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,750

    Brexiteers pointed out many of these issues.

    Link?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,046
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    May and Hammond are the worst peacetime leadership duo we have ever had. Worse than Blair and Brown.

    They aren't glorious. However they have been handed a very difficult task that is, frankly, perhaps beyond any leader. But they could certainly have done better.
    She failed to do the most basic thing that would have prevented No Deal which was to prepare for No Deal.

    In order to be taken seriously in a negotiation you need the other party to think you are prepared to walk away. That no deal would be better than a bad deal. You don't do that by hollow platitudes that simply piss off people but achieve nothing you do that by preparing for a Plan B.

    Having a Plan B doesn't mean that is your desired outcome. It just means you're not screwed if you don't get Plan A.

    We didn't do that so now the EU quite frankly are looking at us like vultures do ... and who can blame them?
    The alternative to a deal is WTO terms, whether you prepare for it or not it will make little difference to the economy beyond the immediate practicalities.


    The main issue with WTO terms is not the WTO it's the certifications etc that we haven't prepared for. Keeping the planes flying, nuclear, medicines etc all need certification by an internationally recognised body. 2 years getting our bodies recognised or an alternative sorted would have solved there issues but who's done that?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,046
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    May and Hammond are the worst peacetime leadership duo we have ever had. Worse than Blair and Brown.

    They aren't glorious. However they have been handed a very difficult task that is, frankly, perhaps beyond any leader. But they could certainly have done better.
    She failed to do the most basic thing that would have prevented No Deal which was to prepare for No Deal.

    In order to be taken seriously in a negotiation you need the other party to think you are prepared to walk away. That no deal would be better than a bad deal. You don't do that by hollow platitudes that simply piss off people but achieve nothing you do that by preparing for a Plan B.

    Having a Plan B doesn't mean that is your desired outcome. It just means you're not screwed if you don't get Plan A.

    We didn't do that so now the EU quite frankly are looking at us like vultures do ... and who can blame them?
    The alternative to a deal is WTO terms, whether you prepare for it or not it will make little difference to the economy beyond the immediate practicalities.


    The main issue with WTO terms is not the WTO it's the certifications etc that we haven't prepared for. Keeping the planes flying, nuclear, medicines etc all need certification by an internationally recognised body. 2 years getting our bodies recognised or an alternative sorted would have solved there issues but who's done that?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,750
    SeanT said:

    The EU is a superstate now actively trying to destroy meaningful democracy and any opposition to its role, in its constituent nations. It is repulsive.

    e.g. You CANNOT be an Italian Finance Minister with a skeptical take on the euro. It is impermissible. If you do take this position, you will be sacked.

    Except that's not what happened.

    You can't be a finance minister who threatens to leave the Euro if that's not the platform you were elected on.

    That's democracy...
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,487

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    The worst part is that the government should have started to prepare for a very narrow trade deal with the EU and begun the laborious process of getting our regulatory bodies international recognition so that the planes still flew and nuclear plants stayed on after Brexit day. These technical details seem to have been completely ignored by May and Hammond. They seem so interested in winning the air war they neglected to remember that it's ground troops that give one a lasting victory.

    Brexiteers told them these things were not important

    Easiest deal in history...

    And Brexiteer rewriting of it to make those who warned and campaigned against it the villains is as doomed as the project itself

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis isn’t a Brexiteer?

    As you well know TMay overrules him on any critical issues, so any vital decisions are kiboshed.

    Perhaps he should resign. Perhaps he will.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,750

    The main issue with WTO terms is not the WTO it's the certifications etc that we haven't prepared for. Keeping the planes flying, nuclear, medicines etc all need certification by an internationally recognised body. 2 years getting our bodies recognised or an alternative sorted would have solved there issues but who's done that?

    And if May had suggested doing any of that, Ress Mogg and chums would have been all over the airwaves claiming it was a waste of time and energy
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,963
    This was the mindset of David Davis and the Leavers straight after the referendum was won. No Deal wasn't an option in their minds, they thought it was just Project Fear.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,158

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    The worst part is that the government should have started to prepare for a very narrow trade deal with the EU and begun the laborious process of getting our regulatory bodies international recognition so that the planes still flew and nuclear plants stayed on after Brexit day. These technical details seem to have been completely ignored by May and Hammond. They seem so interested in winning the air war they neglected to remember that it's ground troops that give one a lasting victory.

    Brexiteers told them these things were not important

    Easiest deal in history...

    And Brexiteer rewriting of it to make those who warned and campaigned against it the villains is as doomed as the project itself

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis isn’t a Brexiteer?

    As you well know TMay overrules him on any critical issues, so any vital decisions are kiboshed.

    Perhaps he should resign. Perhaps he will.

    Whose decision was it to accept the sequencing of the negotiations?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,557
    Scott_P said:

    The main issue with WTO terms is not the WTO it's the certifications etc that we haven't prepared for. Keeping the planes flying, nuclear, medicines etc all need certification by an internationally recognised body. 2 years getting our bodies recognised or an alternative sorted would have solved there issues but who's done that?

    And if May had suggested doing any of that, Ress Mogg and chums would have been all over the airwaves claiming it was a waste of time and energy
    Bullshit, if anything the ERG would have welcomed it as it would signify that the leadership was ready to make a clean break from EU regulatory bodies.

    Try not to overwork that brain cell, it's not cut out for original thought.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,148
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    The Irish (or at least some of them) have realised they are being used by the EU to fuck the Brits, and the EU doesn't especially care if Ireland is severely damaged in the process, like a crowbar that gets broken, and thrown away, by a burglar intent on stealing jewels worth a whole lot more.

    Even if it is true they think that (be it only some or most) there doesn't seem much they can do about it - they are not about to break ranks. Indeed, it might only motivate them to push us even more, since us capitulating becomes the only way out.
    We're not going to capitulate. For the first time ever, the EU will be faced down. The government will not fall over Brexit.

    It would fall if there was a sane, europhile leader of Labour, but there isn't. I predict TMay will try and sell a temporary FoM, CU, SM, transition, she will probably fail, and a new leader will take over and take us out. There won't be a GE til 2022, and even if there is, I strongly suspect the Tories would win, as Corbyn's position is even more insane: he WANTS Freedom of Movement but still want to leave the Single Market, he wants all bad shit but none of the good (in voters' eyes). Also he wants to give away Ulster, Scotland, the Falklands, Cornwall, Dorset and Islington (to Russia) and he's an idiot.

    All this would be exposed by a better Tory leader. And anyone would be better than TMay (certainly at campaigning)
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,171

    This was the mindset of David Davis and the Leavers straight after the referendum was won. No Deal wasn't an option in their minds, they thought it was just Project Fear.

    Picture says it all!

    Sharp operator Barnier vs. certified moron Davis - was the result ever in doubt? Jeez!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    The EU is a superstate now actively trying to destroy meaningful democracy and any opposition to its role, in its constituent nations. It is repulsive.

    e.g. You CANNOT be an Italian Finance Minister with a skeptical take on the euro. It is impermissible. If you do take this position, you will be sacked.

    Except that's not what happened.

    You can't be a finance minister who threatens to leave the Euro if that's not the platform you were elected on.

    That's democracy...
    I don't know Italian law so I don't know if it was ok (they didn't push it, so I presume so) , but presumably it wouldn't be here - you can be a government that does things you were not elected on since manifestos are not enforceable, nor can they cover every eventuality you might need to take. So doing a thing without it being part of your platform (or doing the opposite) does happen in democracies all the time I should think.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,557

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis

    Where the fuck have you been?
    So when the PM stopped the government from planning for no deal Brexit and the Chancellor refused to set aside money for it in 2016, they were leavers?

    Clueless as every Scott. I keep saying it, you need to stick to copying from twatter. You can't do original thought.
    David Davis was Brexit Secretary 8 months before Mrs May triggered Article 50.

    You Leavers own this.
    He should have forced the issue and resigned. However, the buck stops with May and she's a remainer.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,046
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    The EU is a superstate now actively trying to destroy meaningful democracy and any opposition to its role, in its constituent nations. It is repulsive.

    e.g. You CANNOT be an Italian Finance Minister with a skeptical take on the euro. It is impermissible. If you do take this position, you will be sacked.

    Except that's not what happened.

    You can't be a finance minister who threatens to leave the Euro if that's not the platform you were elected on.

    That's democracy...
    Since when?

    Lisbon was signed without a referendum despite the platform MPs were elected on being that there would be one. Surely that should be not allowed according to your principles?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,963
    edited June 11

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    The worst part is that the government should have started to prepare for a very narrow trade deal with the EU and begun the laborious process of getting our regulatory bodies international recognition so that the planes still flew and nuclear plants stayed on after Brexit day. These technical details seem to have been completely ignored by May and Hammond. They seem so interested in winning the air war they neglected to remember that it's ground troops that give one a lasting victory.

    Brexiteers told them these things were not important

    Easiest deal in history...

    And Brexiteer rewriting of it to make those who warned and campaigned against it the villains is as doomed as the project itself

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis isn’t a Brexiteer?

    As you well know TMay overrules him on any critical issues, so any vital decisions are kiboshed.

    Perhaps he should resign. Perhaps he will.

    Like most Leavers he's just not up to the job.

    Whenever I want to have a laugh at PB's Leavers I go and read the thread where Alastair pointed out doing trade deals takes a lot more than two years.

    PB Leavers said it would be very easy and Alastair was wrong.

    Let us say the false premise that the EU are being difficult, what about the rest of the world, surely the likes of Fox and Davis will have sorted out a load of trade deals with no EU countries in principle?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,046

    Scott_P said:

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis

    Where the fuck have you been?
    Davis is not making any decisions. That was made clear back in December. This is all in May's court.

    Scott_P said:

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis

    Where the fuck have you been?
    Davis is not making any decisions. That was made clear back in December. This is all in May's court.
    I'd go back further to when Davis threatened "the row of the summer" over the phasing of the negotiations then was told to roll over on day 1 by May. The EU's abuse of Phase 1 has been the root of problems since.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,148

    This was the mindset of David Davis and the Leavers straight after the referendum was won. No Deal wasn't an option in their minds, they thought it was just Project Fear.

    That was quite stratospherical bollocks from Davis

    I humbly refer you to THIS paragraph in my now famous (in my household) Spectator article on Brexit

    "Thirdly, there will be blood. Brexit is going to be painful, like childbirth. It just is. The Leave quacks who promised a brisk and blissful delivery don’t have enough diamorphine to dull the nerves. We might need epidurals from the Treasury. We will swear a lot, and not care. It might be rather embarrassing but again, we probably won’t care, because we’ll be concentrating on the pain. Other countries will look at us and think ‘I’m never going through that’. Immediately after Brexit, we will likely appear reduced, saggy, wrinkled."

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/brexit-just-like-baby/

    It depresses me that I knew more about Brexiting than the minister for Brexiting. But hey ho.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,481
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    The Irish (or at least some of them) have realised they are being used by the EU to fuck the Brits, and the EU doesn't especially care if Ireland is severely damaged in the process, like a crowbar that gets broken, and thrown away, by a burglar intent on stealing jewels worth a whole lot more.

    Even if it is true they think that (be it only some or most) there doesn't seem much they can do about it - they are not about to break ranks. Indeed, it might only motivate them to push us even more, since us capitulating becomes the only way out.
    We're not going to capitulate. For the first time ever, the EU will be faced down. The government will not fall over Brexit.

    It would fall if there was a sane, europhile leader of Labour, but there isn't. I predict TMay will try and sell a temporary FoM, CU, SM, transition, she will probably fail, and a new leader will take over and take us out. There won't be a GE til 2022, and even if there is, I strongly suspect the Tories would win, as Corbyn's position is even more insane: he WANTS Freedom of Movement but still want to leave the Single Market, he wants all bad shit but none of the good (in voters' eyes). Also he wants to give away Ulster, Scotland, the Falklands, Cornwall, Dorset and Islington (to Russia) and he's an idiot.

    All this would be exposed by a better Tory leader. And anyone would be better than TMay (certainly at campaigning)
    We're not going to capitulate. Your whole post is delightfully bonkers as usual Sean but no part of it is more bonkers than the first sentence. Every shred of evidence we have seen since 23 June 2016 indicates that we absolutely will capitulate, and the EU knows it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713
    murali_s said:

    This was the mindset of David Davis and the Leavers straight after the referendum was won. No Deal wasn't an option in their minds, they thought it was just Project Fear.

    Picture says it all!

    Sharp operator Barnier vs. certified moron Davis - was the result ever in doubt? Jeez!
    You really should be wary of thinking a picture defines a situation - a lot of inept people are quite capable of appearing to be sharp and eloquent while being neither. It happens with actors all the time, and no doubt plenty of politicians and officials manage it too.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,557

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    The Irish (or at least some of them) have realised they are being used by the EU to fuck the Brits, and the EU doesn't especially care if Ireland is severely damaged in the process, like a crowbar that gets broken, and thrown away, by a burglar intent on stealing jewels worth a whole lot more.

    Even if it is true they think that (be it only some or most) there doesn't seem much they can do about it - they are not about to break ranks. Indeed, it might only motivate them to push us even more, since us capitulating becomes the only way out.
    We're not going to capitulate. For the first time ever, the EU will be faced down. The government will not fall over Brexit.

    It would fall if there was a sane, europhile leader of Labour, but there isn't. I predict TMay will try and sell a temporary FoM, CU, SM, transition, she will probably fail, and a new leader will take over and take us out. There won't be a GE til 2022, and even if there is, I strongly suspect the Tories would win, as Corbyn's position is even more insane: he WANTS Freedom of Movement but still want to leave the Single Market, he wants all bad shit but none of the good (in voters' eyes). Also he wants to give away Ulster, Scotland, the Falklands, Cornwall, Dorset and Islington (to Russia) and he's an idiot.

    All this would be exposed by a better Tory leader. And anyone would be better than TMay (certainly at campaigning)
    We're not going to capitulate. Your whole post is delightfully bonkers as usual Sean but no part of it is more bonkers than the first sentence. Every shred of evidence we have seen since 23 June 2016 indicates that we absolutely will capitulate, and the EU knows it.
    May will capitulate, she's completely useless and spineless. May will be taken out the back and shot by the party afterwards.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,379
    It seems possible that the EU thinks that no deal is better than a bad deal, and that it is applying a fairly stringent test of what a bad deal looks like.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,188
    edited June 11

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    May and Hammond are the worst peacetime leadership duo we have ever had. Worse than Blair and Brown.

    They aren't glorious. However they have been handed a very difficult task that is, frankly, perhaps beyond any leader. But they could certainly have done better.
    She failed to do the most basic thing that would have prevented No Deal which was to prepare for No Deal.

    In order to be taken seriously in a negotiation you need the other party to think you are prepared to walk away. That no deal would be better than a bad deal. You don't do that by hollow platitudes that simply piss off people but achieve nothing you do that by preparing for a Plan B.

    Having a Plan B doesn't mean that is your desired outcome. It just means you're not screwed if you don't get Plan A.

    We didn't do that so now the EU quite frankly are looking at us like vultures do ... and who can blame them?
    The alternative to a deal is WTO terms, whether you prepare for it or not it will make little difference to the economy beyond the immediate practicalities.


    The main issue with WTO terms is not the WTO it's the certifications etc that we haven't prepared for. Keeping the planes flying, nuclear, medicines etc all need certification by an internationally recognised body. 2 years getting our bodies recognised or an alternative sorted would have solved there issues but who's done that?
    Of course it is the WTO terms as that automatically means significant tariffs with our biggest trading partner.

    It is also a myth to suggest the government has not been pushing for a comprehensive system of mutual recognition which was on May's radar as she made clear at the Mansion House speech in March.

    https://www.ukas.com/news/mutual-recognition-of-approvals-acknowledged-by-pm/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,158
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    The Irish (or at least some of them) have realised they are being used by the EU to fuck the Brits, and the EU doesn't especially care if Ireland is severely damaged in the process, like a crowbar that gets broken, and thrown away, by a burglar intent on stealing jewels worth a whole lot more.

    Even if it is true they think that (be it only some or most) there doesn't seem much they can do about it - they are not about to break ranks. Indeed, it might only motivate them to push us even more, since us capitulating becomes the only way out.
    We're not going to capitulate. For the first time ever, the EU will be faced down. The government will not fall over Brexit.

    It would fall if there was a sane, europhile leader of Labour, but there isn't. I predict TMay will try and sell a temporary FoM, CU, SM, transition, she will probably fail, and a new leader will take over and take us out. There won't be a GE til 2022, and even if there is, I strongly suspect the Tories would win, as Corbyn's position is even more insane: he WANTS Freedom of Movement but still want to leave the Single Market, he wants all bad shit but none of the good (in voters' eyes). Also he wants to give away Ulster, Scotland, the Falklands, Cornwall, Dorset and Islington (to Russia) and he's an idiot.

    All this would be exposed by a better Tory leader. And anyone would be better than TMay (certainly at campaigning)
    We're not going to capitulate. Your whole post is delightfully bonkers as usual Sean but no part of it is more bonkers than the first sentence. Every shred of evidence we have seen since 23 June 2016 indicates that we absolutely will capitulate, and the EU knows it.
    May will capitulate, she's completely useless and spineless. May will be taken out the back and shot by the party afterwards.
    Alternatively May will capitulate because she has more spine than the Eurosceptics in her party, and she'll drop them off at the knacker's yard afterwards.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,481
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis

    Where the fuck have you been?
    So when the PM stopped the government from planning for no deal Brexit and the Chancellor refused to set aside money for it in 2016, they were leavers?

    Clueless as every Scott. I keep saying it, you need to stick to copying from twatter. You can't do original thought.
    David Davis was Brexit Secretary 8 months before Mrs May triggered Article 50.

    You Leavers own this.
    He should have forced the issue and resigned. However, the buck stops with May and she's a remainer.
    The buck stops with the Conservative government - the whole fecking incompetent bunch of them! They will all be remembered for this shambles.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,188

    It seems possible that the EU thinks that no deal is better than a bad deal, and that it is applying a fairly stringent test of what a bad deal looks like.

    Well if the EU wants tariffs with the USA and UK and refuses to compromise at all so be it
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Just realised Brexit is likely to dominate British political debate for the next three-to-five years. Maybe ten years.

    Oh god.

    I remember predicting that. ;)
    I might have to emigrate until it is over. It's just so relentless and repetitive.
    Soon there won't be a PBBrexiteer left in the UK, they will all be in California, Spain, the UAE, Australia, Singapore etc.

    Sunil may be the only PB Leave voter still sticking it out in Blighty!
    Sunil's only here until he's exhausted the country's trains and trams. After that, he'll head somewhere else.
    "...and quietly, without any fuss, the trains were going out..." Arthur C. Clarke, "The Nine Billion Trains Of God"

    I must have read that short story about 40 years ago and I still remember it vividly. Clarke, like a lot of early Sci-Fi writers, was much better at short stories based around a single idea than novels although Childhoods End was brilliant.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    The Irish (or at least some of them) have realised they are being used by the EU to fuck the Brits, and the EU doesn't especially care if Ireland is severely damaged in the process, like a crowbar that gets broken, and thrown away, by a burglar intent on stealing jewels worth a whole lot more.

    Even if it is true they think that (be it only some or most) there doesn't seem much they can do about it - they are not about to break ranks. Indeed, it might only motivate them to push us even more, since us capitulating becomes the only way out.
    We're not going to capitulate. For the first time ever, the EU will be faced down. The government will not fall over Brexit.

    It would fall if there was a sane, europhile leader of Labour, but there isn't. I predict TMay will try and sell a temporary FoM, CU, SM, transition, she will probably fail, and a new leader will take over and take us out. There won't be a GE til 2022, and even if there is, I strongly suspect the Tories would win, as Corbyn's position is even more insane: he WANTS Freedom of Movement but still want to leave the Single Market, he wants all bad shit but none of the good (in voters' eyes). Also he wants to give away Ulster, Scotland, the Falklands, Cornwall, Dorset and Islington (to Russia) and he's an idiot.

    All this would be exposed by a better Tory leader. And anyone would be better than TMay (certainly at campaigning)
    We're not going to capitulate. Your whole post is delightfully bonkers as usual Sean but no part of it is more bonkers than the first sentence. Every shred of evidence we have seen since 23 June 2016 indicates that we absolutely will capitulate, and the EU knows it.
    It isn't bonkers, but not necessarily for the reason that we won't capitulate. Your whole point is predicated on the assumption that, backs to the wall, people will take a very unpalatable option as the only sensible choice. They might. They usually do. But it cannot be guaranteed, and political realities, particularly in a situation where a lot of pain will not be felt instantaneously, might make capitulation impossible in the manner that is hoped for.

    After all, while the government of Greece did in the end capitulate several years ago, they did manage to get popular support for not doing so - and where popular support can be garnered like that, then even by accident someone will eventually take the plunge and not capitulate. Speaking with such certainty that it must happen ignores that possibility.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,804

    Well that's it, disaster is guaranteed.

    The most terrible word in politics has been mentioned.

    Letwin.

    Very unfair on Olly.

    I spoke to someone who has worked for every Tory leader since Thatcher and I mentioned Olly Letwin's disasters.

    He said Letwin's not interested in personal glory, he's prepared to be the fall guy when PMs float a ballon.

    If Letwin is as incompetent as people think do you honestly let Thatcher would have kept on promoting him?
    Wasn't Letwin's most prominent achievement in those days to convince Thatch that the poll tax would be a big vote winner ?

    Not to mention his 'disco and drugs' thoughts.

    Since then he's shoveled millions to Kids Company, put important documents in a park bin, had to be kept under lock and key during general elections and let a burglar into his house in the middle of the night.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,481
    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    This was the mindset of David Davis and the Leavers straight after the referendum was won. No Deal wasn't an option in their minds, they thought it was just Project Fear.

    Picture says it all!

    Sharp operator Barnier vs. certified moron Davis - was the result ever in doubt? Jeez!
    You really should be wary of thinking a picture defines a situation - a lot of inept people are quite capable of appearing to be sharp and eloquent while being neither. It happens with actors all the time, and no doubt plenty of politicians and officials manage it too.
    That is very true. However, in this case the picture seems (perhaps by chance) to provide an accurate definition.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,188
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    The Irish (or at least some of them) have realised they are being used by the EU to fuck the Brits, and the EU doesn't especially care if Ireland is severely damaged in the process, like a crowbar that gets broken, and thrown away, by a burglar intent on stealing jewels worth a whole lot more.

    Even if it is true they think that (be it only some or most) there doesn't seem much they can do about it - they are not about to break ranks. Indeed, it might only motivate them to push us even more, since us capitulating becomes the only way out.
    We're not going to capitulate. For the first time ever, the EU will be faced down. The government will not fall over Brexit.

    It would fall if there was a sane, europhile leader of Labour, but there isn't. I predict TMay will try and sell a temporary FoM, CU, SM, transition, she will probably fail, and a new leader will take over and take us out. There won't be a GE til 2022, and even if there is, I strongly suspect the Tories would win, as Corbyn's position is even more insane: he WANTS Freedom of Movement but still want to leave the Single Market, he wants all bad shit but none of the good (in voters' eyes). Also he wants to give away Ulster, Scotland, the Falklands, Cornwall, Dorset and Islington (to Russia) and he's an idiot.

    All this would be exposed by a better Tory leader. And anyone would be better than TMay (certainly at campaigning)
    Corbyn technically wants to end freedom of movement and leave the single market, he just supposedly wants 'the closest possible access to the internal market' and to stay in a customs union but not the customs union
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,557

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    The worst part is that the government should have started to prepare for a very narrow trade deal with the EU and begun the laborious process of getting our regulatory bodies international recognition so that the planes still flew and nuclear plants stayed on after Brexit day. These technical details seem to have been completely ignored by May and Hammond. They seem so interested in winning the air war they neglected to remember that it's ground troops that give one a lasting victory.

    Brexiteers told them these things were not important

    Easiest deal in history...

    And Brexiteer rewriting of it to make those who warned and campaigned against it the villains is as doomed as the project itself

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis isn’t a Brexiteer?

    As you well know TMay overrules him on any critical issues, so any vital decisions are kiboshed.

    Perhaps he should resign. Perhaps he will.

    Like most Leavers he's just not up to the job.

    Whenever I want to have a laugh at PB's Leavers I go and read the thread where Alastair pointed out doing trade deals takes a lot more than two years.

    PB Leavers said it would be very easy and Alastair was wrong.

    Let us say the false premise that the EU are being difficult, what about the rest of the world, surely the likes of Fox and Davis will have sorted out a load of trade deals with no EU countries in principle?
    I know someone who works in the trade department, they have said time and again Fox had wasted too much time and energy on Trump and Turnbull. Neither of whom are interested in opening discussion on trade talks until they know what the UK's trade position will be after Brexit. Every time rolling over existing trade deals was brought up the concerns were ignored or dismissed (my friend is one of the few leavers in the department but agrees with the remainer outlook on international trade - it's difficult). Until very recently Fox and his aides believed that the EU-Third country deals would roll over automatically despite most of the staff in the department saying otherwise and expert advice saying so on the eve of Brexit.

    On Brexit day we are set to sign under 10 trade deals with our existing partners, out of about 40 in total.

    Fox is a complete and utter disaster of a minister.

    Fox, Davis and Boris should have all been sacked a long time ago.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,158
    SeanT said:

    This was the mindset of David Davis and the Leavers straight after the referendum was won. No Deal wasn't an option in their minds, they thought it was just Project Fear.

    That was quite stratospherical bollocks from Davis

    I humbly refer you to THIS paragraph in my now famous (in my household) Spectator article on Brexit

    "Thirdly, there will be blood. Brexit is going to be painful, like childbirth. It just is. The Leave quacks who promised a brisk and blissful delivery don’t have enough diamorphine to dull the nerves. We might need epidurals from the Treasury. We will swear a lot, and not care. It might be rather embarrassing but again, we probably won’t care, because we’ll be concentrating on the pain. Other countries will look at us and think ‘I’m never going through that’. Immediately after Brexit, we will likely appear reduced, saggy, wrinkled."

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/brexit-just-like-baby/

    It depresses me that I knew more about Brexiting than the minister for Brexiting. But hey ho.
    To extend your analogy, the problem is that the Brexiteers thought they'd arranged for a surrogate to carry the baby and didn't realise that the process involved getting pregnant.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,148
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    The EU is a superstate now actively trying to destroy meaningful democracy and any opposition to its role, in its constituent nations. It is repulsive.

    e.g. You CANNOT be an Italian Finance Minister with a skeptical take on the euro. It is impermissible. If you do take this position, you will be sacked.

    Except that's not what happened.

    You can't be a finance minister who threatens to leave the Euro if that's not the platform you were elected on.

    That's democracy...
    Jesus Christ. You are SO dull. The Italian government didn't even put euro-membership in their manifesto. There was no Coalition manifesto (by definition). Moreover the nominated FinMin was a very respected academic with long EU credentials who had merely expressed the opinion that euro-membership MIGHT not be optimal for Italy (and of course he is right). He never said WE MUST LEAVE

    But that wasn't good enough for the ayatollahs in Brussels. He looked like a Sunni, or a Kaffir, or a Jew, or he had a hooknose, or however it is they define EU-heresy these days, so they decided he must not be Finance Minister so he was vetoed by the unelected president.

    FFS, how dim do you have to be to not see the anti-democratic trajectory of the EU?

    You wanna live in a European China, run by unelected eurocrats, go ahead. But I think the history and sacrifice of the British people, to achieve the flawed democracy we have, deserves better.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407

    MaxPB said:

    May and Hammond are the worst peacetime leadership duo we have ever had. Worse than Blair and Brown.

    They aren't glorious. However they have been handed a very difficult task that is, frankly, perhaps beyond any leader. But they could certainly have done better.
    She failed to do the most basic thing that would have prevented No Deal which was to prepare for No Deal.

    In order to be taken seriously in a negotiation you need the other party to think you are prepared to walk away. That no deal would be better than a bad deal. You don't do that by hollow platitudes that simply piss off people but achieve nothing you do that by preparing for a Plan B.

    Having a Plan B doesn't mean that is your desired outcome. It just means you're not screwed if you don't get Plan A.

    We didn't do that so now the EU quite frankly are looking at us like vultures do ... and who can blame them?
    Si vis pacem, para bellum

    Its not exactly a new idea.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,046
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    May and Hammond are the worst peacetime leadership duo we have ever had. Worse than Blair and Brown.

    They aren't glorious. However they have been handed a very difficult task that is, frankly, perhaps beyond any leader. But they could certainly have done better.
    She failed to do the most basic thing that would have prevented No Deal which was to prepare for No Deal.

    In order to be taken seriously in a negotiation you need the other party to think you are prepared to walk away. That no deal would be better than a bad deal. You don't do that by hollow platitudes that simply piss off people but achieve nothing you do that by preparing for a Plan B.

    Having a Plan B doesn't mean that is your desired outcome. It just means you're not screwed if you don't get Plan A.

    We didn't do that so now the EU quite frankly are looking at us like vultures do ... and who can blame them?
    The alternative to a deal is WTO terms, whether you prepare for it or not it will make little difference to the economy beyond the immediate practicalities.


    The main issue with WTO terms is not the WTO it's the certifications etc that we haven't prepared for. Keeping the planes flying, nuclear, medicines etc all need certification by an internationally recognised body. 2 years getting our bodies recognised or an alternative sorted would have solved there issues but who's done that?
    Of course it is the WTO terms as that automatically means significant tariffs with our biggest trading partner.

    It is also a myth to suggest the government has not been pushing for a comprehensive system of mutual recognition which was on May's radar as she made clear at the Mansion House speech in March.

    https://www.ukas.com/news/mutual-recognition-of-approvals-acknowledged-by-pm/
    Tariffs of 1.6% average. Not the end of the world. Currency varies by more than that.

    Be great to avoid those tariffs but it's not worth selling our soul over.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis

    Where the fuck have you been?
    So when the PM stopped the government from planning for no deal Brexit and the Chancellor refused to set aside money for it in 2016, they were leavers?

    Clueless as every Scott. I keep saying it, you need to stick to copying from twatter. You can't do original thought.
    David Davis was Brexit Secretary 8 months before Mrs May triggered Article 50.

    You Leavers own this.
    He should have forced the issue and resigned. However, the buck stops with May and she's a remainer.
    The buck stops with the Conservative government - the whole fecking incompetent bunch of them! They will all be remembered for this shambles.
    While I think they will lose the next election, if the polls are right they might well be remembered by remaining the most popular political party in the United Kingdom. Not ideal if there is no majority or even a Labour coalition, but the strength of your ire does not seem matched by the fact that despite the shambles they remain, even if by default, popular enough to be in with a shout of winning most seats four elections in a row despite austerity and Brexit, which is pretty remarkable.

    So I don't really know that your faith in the buck stopping with them holds much water. It's another thing that might be reasonable to happen but no certainty.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,487
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    The Irish (or at least some of them) have realised they are being used by the EU to fuck the Brits, and the EU doesn't especially care if Ireland is severely damaged in the process, like a crowbar that gets broken, and thrown away, by a burglar intent on stealing jewels worth a whole lot more.

    Even if it is true they think that (be it only some or most) there doesn't seem much they can do about it - they are not about to break ranks. Indeed, it might only motivate them to push us even more, since us capitulating becomes the only way out.
    We're not going to capitulate. For the first time ever, the EU will be faced down. The government will not fall over Brexit.

    It would fall if there was a sane, europhile leader of Labour, but there isn't. I predict TMay will try and sell a temporary FoM, CU, SM, transition, she will probably fail, and a new leader will take over and take us out. There won't be a GE til 2022, and even if there is, I strongly suspect the Tories would win, as Corbyn's position is even more insane: he WANTS Freedom of Movement but still want to leave the Single Market, he wants all bad shit but none of the good (in voters' eyes). Also he wants to give away Ulster, Scotland, the Falklands, Cornwall, Dorset and Islington (to Russia) and he's an idiot.

    All this would be exposed by a better Tory leader. And anyone would be better than TMay (certainly at campaigning)
    We're not going to capitulate. Your whole post is delightfully bonkers as usual Sean but no part of it is more bonkers than the first sentence. Every shred of evidence we have seen since 23 June 2016 indicates that we absolutely will capitulate, and the EU knows it.
    May will capitulate, she's completely useless and spineless. May will be taken out the back and shot by the party afterwards.

    I keep hoping TMay is playing a long game where she proves that she has been as reasonable as possible with the EU, and shows how appalling the demands the EU are making.

    Then she will have the country's support for full Brexit as we have no choice.

    Sadly, though, you are probably right and she is just spineless.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,188

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis

    Where the fuck have you been?
    So when the PM stopped the government from planning for no deal Brexit and the Chancellor refused to set aside money for it in 2016, they were leavers?

    Clueless as every Scott. I keep saying it, you need to stick to copying from twatter. You can't do original thought.
    David Davis was Brexit Secretary 8 months before Mrs May triggered Article 50.

    You Leavers own this.
    He should have forced the issue and resigned. However, the buck stops with May and she's a remainer.
    The buck stops with the Conservative government - the whole fecking incompetent bunch of them! They will all be remembered for this shambles.
    The buck actually stops with the 17 million voters who voted Leave despite the Conservative government of the time warning of the difficulties of implementing the Leave campaign's promises.

    In terms of implementing Brexit Corbyn's policy is virtually identical to May's
  • PurplePurple Posts: 150
    DCMS select committee to Dominic Cummings: "the usual restrictions on committees considering matters that are before the courts do not apply in this case."

    Him to them: "I have been told by multiple teams of lawyers for different parties that I must keep my trap shut."

    Cummings-committee correspondence.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,963
    Yeah the Tories are going to finish behind the Lib Dems in Lewisham, and probably finish behind the OMRLP. Who on earth thought sending the disgraced Liam Fox to campaign in a by election was a good idea?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,750
    MaxPB said:

    Fox, Davis and Boris should have all been sacked a long time ago.

    The 3 Brexiteers

    Not a clue between them
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713

    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    This was the mindset of David Davis and the Leavers straight after the referendum was won. No Deal wasn't an option in their minds, they thought it was just Project Fear.

    Picture says it all!

    Sharp operator Barnier vs. certified moron Davis - was the result ever in doubt? Jeez!
    You really should be wary of thinking a picture defines a situation - a lot of inept people are quite capable of appearing to be sharp and eloquent while being neither. It happens with actors all the time, and no doubt plenty of politicians and officials manage it too.
    That is very true. However, in this case the picture seems (perhaps by chance) to provide an accurate definition.
    Davis was of the crowd claiming it would be easy, which was always bollocks (though I was quite wrong about how hard it would prove, even thinking it would be hard), so that's quite true, but it's not a good idea to start down the path of thinking a good photo proves a point!
    MaxPB said:




    Fox, Davis and Boris should have all been sacked a long time ago.

    I recall plenty of consternation when they were appointed.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,285
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis

    Where the fuck have you been?
    So when the PM stopped the government from planning for no deal Brexit and the Chancellor refused to set aside money for it in 2016, they were leavers?

    Clueless as every Scott. I keep saying it, you need to stick to copying from twatter. You can't do original thought.
    It is utterly baffling. Mr Cameron refused to allow contingency plans for a Leave vote. Mrs May doesn't learn from the experience.

    What are these people thinking of?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713

    Yeah the Tories are going to finish behind the Lib Dems in Lewisham, and probably finish behind the OMRLP. Who on earth thought sending the disgraced Liam Fox to campaign in a by election was a good idea?

    hps://twitter.com/JamesCleverly/status/1006137180471857152

    Lewisham is currently a one party state and people feel they are being taken for granted by Labour.

    This sort of thing gets trotted out in safe seats and one party councils all the time, from all sides. You hear people like the Greens all the time talking about how 'people are tired of being taken for granted' by the big two or the like.

    But it never seems to be true. Or if they do feel like they are being taken for granted, they don't mind it as much as the prospect of someone else taking over. More likely, they like the one party state they have. So it is just a lazy cliche really.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,481
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis

    Where the fuck have you been?
    So when the PM stopped the government from planning for no deal Brexit and the Chancellor refused to set aside money for it in 2016, they were leavers?

    Clueless as every Scott. I keep saying it, you need to stick to copying from twatter. You can't do original thought.
    David Davis was Brexit Secretary 8 months before Mrs May triggered Article 50.

    You Leavers own this.
    He should have forced the issue and resigned. However, the buck stops with May and she's a remainer.
    The buck stops with the Conservative government - the whole fecking incompetent bunch of them! They will all be remembered for this shambles.
    The buck actually stops with the 17 million voters who voted Leave despite the Conservative government of the time warning of the difficulties of implementing the Leave campaign's promises.

    In terms of implementing Brexit Corbyn's policy is virtually identical to May's
    The 17 milllion Leave voters are not ballsing up the leave process, nor is Corbyn; the Conservative government, and only the Conservative government is doing that.

    The Leave voters were entitled to think their elected government would exercise a degree of competence in executing the referendum result.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,750
    SeanT said:

    Jesus Christ. You are SO dull.

    But right.

    And not nearly SO dull as the Brexiteers.

    Before the vote it was going to be brilliant. Freedom. Prosperity. A beacon to the World.

    Then not quite as bad as the Black Death.

    Now, worse than staying,

    And all the while, for 2 years, the steady monotone whine of "It's not our fault"

    Yes, it fucking is.

    You wanted it. You voted for it. You own it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,557
    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fox, Davis and Boris should have all been sacked a long time ago.

    The 3 Brexiteers

    Not a clue between them
    About the same as May and Hammond, we have a government of incompetents.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,557

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis

    Where the fuck have you been?
    So when the PM stopped the government from planning for no deal Brexit and the Chancellor refused to set aside money for it in 2016, they were leavers?

    Clueless as every Scott. I keep saying it, you need to stick to copying from twatter. You can't do original thought.
    David Davis was Brexit Secretary 8 months before Mrs May triggered Article 50.

    You Leavers own this.
    He should have forced the issue and resigned. However, the buck stops with May and she's a remainer.
    The buck stops with the Conservative government - the whole fecking incompetent bunch of them! They will all be remembered for this shambles.
    The buck actually stops with the 17 million voters who voted Leave despite the Conservative government of the time warning of the difficulties of implementing the Leave campaign's promises.

    In terms of implementing Brexit Corbyn's policy is virtually identical to May's
    The 17 milllion Leave voters are not ballsing up the leave process, nor is Corbyn; the Conservative government, and only the Conservative government is doing that.

    The Leave voters were entitled to think their elected government would exercise a degree of competence in executing the referendum result.
    The remainer PM and Chancellor are most culpable.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,963
    AnneJGP said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis

    Where the fuck have you been?
    So when the PM stopped the government from planning for no deal Brexit and the Chancellor refused to set aside money for it in 2016, they were leavers?

    Clueless as every Scott. I keep saying it, you need to stick to copying from twatter. You can't do original thought.
    It is utterly baffling. Mr Cameron refused to allow contingency plans for a Leave vote. Mrs May doesn't learn from the experience.

    What are these people thinking of?
    Dave made contingencies for a Leave vote.

    But couldn't do much because the experts in the civil service said what Vote Leave were promising was undeliverable and contradictory.

    Two years on and they were right, Leavers still haven't worked out what type of Leave they want.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,750

    The Leave voters were entitled to think their elected government would exercise a degree of competence in executing the referendum result.

    And their confidence is justified and will be rewarded.

    The best case Brexit was a terminal clusterfuck that would stagnate the economy, knock points off trade and cause bitterness and resentment for a generation.

    And the government are working night and day to deliver that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407

    Yeah the Tories are going to finish behind the Lib Dems in Lewisham, and probably finish behind the OMRLP. Who on earth thought sending the disgraced Liam Fox to campaign in a by election was a good idea?

    In fairness things could be worse. He could be in his department trying to decide something (anything).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713
    edited June 11

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis

    Where the fuck have you been?
    So when the PM stopped the government from planning for no deal Brexit and the Chancellor refused to set aside money for it in 2016, they were leavers?

    Clueless as every Scott. I keep saying it, you need to stick to copying from twatter. You can't do original thought.
    David Davis was Brexit Secretary 8 months before Mrs May triggered Article 50.

    You Leavers own this.
    He should have forced the issue and resigned. However, the buck stops with May and she's a remainer.
    The buck stops with the Conservative government - the whole fecking incompetent bunch of them! They will all be remembered for this shambles.
    The buck actually stops with the 17 million voters who voted Leave despite the Conservative government of the time warning of the difficulties of implementing the Leave campaign's promises.

    In terms of implementing Brexit Corbyn's policy is virtually identical to May's
    The 17 milllion Leave voters are not ballsing up the leave process, nor is Corbyn; the Conservative government, and only the Conservative government is doing that.

    The Leave voters were entitled to think their elected government would exercise a degree of competence in executing the referendum result.
    Well you're being more rational than Scott_P at least. It beggars belief even simple agreement among a Cabinet has to be kicked down the road despite years of presumably working on it.

    (And no I'm not whining about it not being my fault. It probably was a mistake, and though this is not what I expected nor was inevitable my vote was my vote in the end).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,804
    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Just realised Brexit is likely to dominate British political debate for the next three-to-five years. Maybe ten years.

    Oh god.

    I remember predicting that. ;)
    I might have to emigrate until it is over. It's just so relentless and repetitive.
    Soon there won't be a PBBrexiteer left in the UK, they will all be in California, Spain, the UAE, Australia, Singapore etc.

    Sunil may be the only PB Leave voter still sticking it out in Blighty!
    Sunil's only here until he's exhausted the country's trains and trams. After that, he'll head somewhere else.
    "...and quietly, without any fuss, the trains were going out..." Arthur C. Clarke, "The Nine Billion Trains Of God"

    I must have read that short story about 40 years ago and I still remember it vividly. Clarke, like a lot of early Sci-Fi writers, was much better at short stories based around a single idea than novels although Childhoods End was brilliant.
    Indeed.

    Clarke's work in the 1950s was brilliantly interesting and highly readable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,156
    I'm not sure what the above means but if Stephen Hammond, Morgan, Mogg and Bill Cash have all signed it (A wide variety of Tory views) then May should probably go with it.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,914
    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    The worst part is that the government should have started to prepare for a very narrow trade deal with the EU and begun the laborious process of getting our regulatory bodies international recognition so that the planes still flew and nuclear plants stayed on after Brexit day. These technical details seem to have been completely ignored by May and Hammond. They seem so interested in winning the air war they neglected to remember that it's ground troops that give one a lasting victory.

    Brexiteers told them these things were not important

    Easiest deal in history...

    And Brexiteer rewriting of history to make those who warned and campaigned against it the villains is as doomed as the project itself
    You didn't campaign, and your "warning" consisted of twatting about on here in a manner calculated to drive people into the L:eave camp. The more you now bang on about how obvious it always was to clever people like you how pear-shaped it was all going to go, the more you condemn yourself as a spineless wazzock for not having done anything constructive about it while you had the chance.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,481
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    Wake me up when a Brexiteer is negotiating...

    David Davis

    Where the fuck have you been?
    So when the PM stopped the government from planning for no deal Brexit and the Chancellor refused to set aside money for it in 2016, they were leavers?

    Clueless as every Scott. I keep saying it, you need to stick to copying from twatter. You can't do original thought.
    David Davis was Brexit Secretary 8 months before Mrs May triggered Article 50.

    You Leavers own this.
    He should have forced the issue and resigned. However, the buck stops with May and she's a remainer.
    The buck stops with the Conservative government - the whole fecking incompetent bunch of them! They will all be remembered for this shambles.
    The buck actually stops with the 17 million voters who voted Leave despite the Conservative government of the time warning of the difficulties of implementing the Leave campaign's promises.

    In terms of implementing Brexit Corbyn's policy is virtually identical to May's
    The 17 milllion Leave voters are not ballsing up the leave process, nor is Corbyn; the Conservative government, and only the Conservative government is doing that.

    The Leave voters were entitled to think their elected government would exercise a degree of competence in executing the referendum result.
    The remainer PM and Chancellor are most culpable.
    Gove, Davis and Johnson are most culpable, on two counts: a) for spinning a fantasy that Brexit would be easy in the first place and b) for rank cowardice in not being prepared to challenge May if (as I am sure they will claim in future) they felt Brexit was not being run optimally.
This discussion has been closed.