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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Italy: 50 ways to leave the Euro

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited June 12 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Italy: 50 ways to leave the Euro

This is the most recent production from Robert who has been associated with PB right from the start in March 2004 and, indeed, was the person who suggested to me in the first place to establish the site.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 6,334
    First?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,083
    "Robert who has been associated with PB right"

    Harsh words from a liberal father 'betrayed' by his Tory son.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,724
    Is that an invisible crystal ball he's trying to grasp ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,632
    Very good! I love these videos.

    Main lesson for me: never ever join the Euro. There is almost no way out.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 1,659
    I really like these videos too. I watched the oil one last week and thought it was really interesting.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 1,659
    Anorak said:

    "Robert who has been associated with PB right"

    Harsh words from a liberal father 'betrayed' by his Tory son.

    LOL :D
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,887
    Very interesting.

    It is the one thing that will do for the EU. If Italy goes, so does France. If France goes the whole thing goes.

    Merkel, I note, declined to give a ringing assurance that they would step up to help Italy in the event of a similar to Greece event.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,314
    Anorak said:

    "Robert who has been associated with PB right"

    Harsh words from a liberal father 'betrayed' by his Tory son.

    Mr Mike Smithson finally concedes that he spawned a PB Tory!!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,183
    Labour bods stuck on a train:

    Eurosceptics missing: R Campbell, Stringer, Hopkins (s)
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,598
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour bods stuck on a train:

    Eurosceptics missing: R Campbell, Stringer, Hopkins (s)

    Stringer’s already spoken, according to the Guardian liveblog.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,402
    One to look at later. I enjoyed the edition on oil prices.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,078
    TOPPING said:

    Very interesting.

    It is the one thing that will do for the EU. If Italy goes, so does France. If France goes the whole thing goes.

    Merkel, I note, declined to give a ringing assurance that they would step up to help Italy in the event of a similar to Greece event.

    I wouldn't hold my breath. If Italy goes then Macron and his ilk would have no intention whatsoever of following them out.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,760
    edited June 12
    Very good. Best presentation so far and an enjoyable watch.

    (But there isn't an Italian alive who would have the Lira back!)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,887
    edited June 12

    TOPPING said:

    Very interesting.

    It is the one thing that will do for the EU. If Italy goes, so does France. If France goes the whole thing goes.

    Merkel, I note, declined to give a ringing assurance that they would step up to help Italy in the event of a similar to Greece event.

    I wouldn't hold my breath. If Italy goes then Macron and his ilk would have no intention whatsoever of following them out.
    France is the largest holder of Italian debt outside Italy. It wouldn't be a choice and we have heard that the ECB may not be as accommodating as in the recent past.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,078
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Very interesting.

    It is the one thing that will do for the EU. If Italy goes, so does France. If France goes the whole thing goes.

    Merkel, I note, declined to give a ringing assurance that they would step up to help Italy in the event of a similar to Greece event.

    I wouldn't hold my breath. If Italy goes then Macron and his ilk would have no intention whatsoever of following them out.
    France is the largest holder of Italian debt outside Italy. It wouldn't be a choice and we have heard that the ECB may not be as accommodating as in the recent past.
    They absolutely would have a choice and the ECB would do anything to prevent France from falling out. The last thing the ECB would want is total collapse, if that takes being more accomodating than they ever have been then of course they will.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,887

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Very interesting.

    It is the one thing that will do for the EU. If Italy goes, so does France. If France goes the whole thing goes.

    Merkel, I note, declined to give a ringing assurance that they would step up to help Italy in the event of a similar to Greece event.

    I wouldn't hold my breath. If Italy goes then Macron and his ilk would have no intention whatsoever of following them out.
    France is the largest holder of Italian debt outside Italy. It wouldn't be a choice and we have heard that the ECB may not be as accommodating as in the recent past.
    They absolutely would have a choice and the ECB would do anything to prevent France from falling out. The last thing the ECB would want is total collapse, if that takes being more accomodating than they ever have been then of course they will.
    We shall see. We are in to moral hazard territory here, as Merkel's response re Greece/Italy illustrated. They can't say they will bail out but they would have to but Germany (who else?) couldn't bail Italy out, let alone France. Italy's Target2 liabilities are now close to half a trillion Euros.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,566
    edited June 12
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Not watched the video yet (I shall presently) but if there's no Quitaly pun I shall be mildly disappointed.

    Edited extra bit: CE?!?!

    Mr. 1000, I do like you, but historical revisionist PC acronym abominations do make it difficult.

    Honestly.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,449

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Not watched the video yet (I shall presently) but if there's no Quitaly pun I shall be mildly disappointed.

    Edited extra bit: CE?!?!

    Mr. 1000, I do like you, but historical revisionist PC acronym abominations do make it difficult.

    Honestly.

    ‘Quitaly’ is a bit anglocentric - shouldnt we be using ‘Uscitalia’?

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,926
    Will have a look at Roberts video later.

    Meanwhile the title reminds me of this...

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,183
    Grieve up - no doubt saying something along the lins that he doesn't want to stop Brexit, even though he probably does :p
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,499
    GIN1138 said:

    Will have a look at Roberts video later.

    Meanwhile the title reminds me of this...

    I think it was intended to. :smile:
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,402
    Polruan said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Not watched the video yet (I shall presently) but if there's no Quitaly pun I shall be mildly disappointed.

    Edited extra bit: CE?!?!

    Mr. 1000, I do like you, but historical revisionist PC acronym abominations do make it difficult.

    Honestly.

    ‘Quitaly’ is a bit anglocentric - shouldnt we be using ‘Uscitalia’?

    Ciaout.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,566
    Mr. Polruan, in my defence, I don't speak Italian.

    Anyway, watched the video. Informative and entertaining. And CE remains the dating system preferred by Satanic revisionists.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,994
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour bods stuck on a train:

    Eurosceptics missing: R Campbell, Stringer, Hopkins (s)

    :lol: Seriously? Has Grayling shot his own side with his crap running of the railways?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,994
    Anna up now...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,994
    A display of cold fury.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 102
    edited June 12
    I think there is a general money crisis on the cards: the emergence of crypto has the potential to circumvent conventional monetary policy, and helicopter money may have created conditions for a supercyclical recession, not just in the Euro but the Dollar (and Sterling, Yen... too). Meanwhile the massive increase in mis-allocated Chinese debt could lead to a best case scenario of the PRC stalled in the middle income trap and at worse a really disorderly unwinding of their entire banking system (although maybe WePay et al is already an alternative currency...). So what with Trumputin promoting a new world disorder we seem to be due a whole load of 1930s style fun and games. So the perfect time for a leadership vacuum in the UK.

    "We recommend a buy on canned food and shotguns".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,887

    A display of cold fury.

    She's not a million miles away from someone being played by Jennifer Saunders.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,683
    edited June 12
    Anazina said:

    Anorak said:

    "Robert who has been associated with PB right"

    Harsh words from a liberal father 'betrayed' by his Tory son.

    Mr Mike Smithson finally concedes that he spawned a PB Tory!!!
    I think that has been taken out of context. ." Robert who has been associated with PB right from the start in March 2004 and, indeed, was the person who suggested to me in the first place to establish the site."
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,499
    Do we have any idea when the vote on amendment 19 is likely to be lost by the government oops, sorry, take place?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,357

    Anna up now...

    Hope she gets deselected too. Smugness personified.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,887

    Anazina said:

    Anorak said:

    "Robert who has been associated with PB right"

    Harsh words from a liberal father 'betrayed' by his Tory son.

    Mr Mike Smithson finally concedes that he spawned a PB Tory!!!
    I think that has been taken out of context. ." Robert who has been associated with PB right from the start in March 2004 and, indeed, was the person who suggested to me in the first place to establish the site."
    Mike - we went over this this morning. It is the lot of important people for their comments to be taken out of context ("..experts..", "..always sovereign..", "..nasty party..", "..no such thing as society..", etc).

    You are part of an august group.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,887
    Very very unlikely to be true as stated.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,078
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Very interesting.

    It is the one thing that will do for the EU. If Italy goes, so does France. If France goes the whole thing goes.

    Merkel, I note, declined to give a ringing assurance that they would step up to help Italy in the event of a similar to Greece event.

    I wouldn't hold my breath. If Italy goes then Macron and his ilk would have no intention whatsoever of following them out.
    France is the largest holder of Italian debt outside Italy. It wouldn't be a choice and we have heard that the ECB may not be as accommodating as in the recent past.
    They absolutely would have a choice and the ECB would do anything to prevent France from falling out. The last thing the ECB would want is total collapse, if that takes being more accomodating than they ever have been then of course they will.
    We shall see. We are in to moral hazard territory here, as Merkel's response re Greece/Italy illustrated. They can't say they will bail out but they would have to but Germany (who else?) couldn't bail Italy out, let alone France. Italy's Target2 liabilities are now close to half a trillion Euros.
    Its remarkable how much moral hazard can be ignored when backs are against the wall and its a potential "game over" time otherwise. Desperation trumps principles at a time like that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,183

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Very interesting.

    It is the one thing that will do for the EU. If Italy goes, so does France. If France goes the whole thing goes.

    Merkel, I note, declined to give a ringing assurance that they would step up to help Italy in the event of a similar to Greece event.

    I wouldn't hold my breath. If Italy goes then Macron and his ilk would have no intention whatsoever of following them out.
    France is the largest holder of Italian debt outside Italy. It wouldn't be a choice and we have heard that the ECB may not be as accommodating as in the recent past.
    They absolutely would have a choice and the ECB would do anything to prevent France from falling out. The last thing the ECB would want is total collapse, if that takes being more accomodating than they ever have been then of course they will.
    We shall see. We are in to moral hazard territory here, as Merkel's response re Greece/Italy illustrated. They can't say they will bail out but they would have to but Germany (who else?) couldn't bail Italy out, let alone France. Italy's Target2 liabilities are now close to half a trillion Euros.
    Its remarkable how much moral hazard can be ignored when backs are against the wall and its a potential "game over" time otherwise. Desperation trumps principles at a time like that.
    Yep, just ask Fred Goodwin.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,357
    You can't base policy on threats - real or imagined. That doesn't bring anything to the debate other than attention seeking and victim hood. Poor.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,926

    Anazina said:

    Anorak said:

    "Robert who has been associated with PB right"

    Harsh words from a liberal father 'betrayed' by his Tory son.

    Mr Mike Smithson finally concedes that he spawned a PB Tory!!!
    I think that has been taken out of context. ." Robert who has been associated with PB right from the start in March 2004 and, indeed, was the person who suggested to me in the first place to establish the site."
    I knew what you meant. :D
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,779
    edited June 12
    TGOHF said:

    You can't base policy on threats - real or imagined.

    image
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,357
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    You can't base policy on threats - real or imagined.

    image
    That's not a threat its a reminder of EU policy at the time.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,926
    edited June 12

    Wonder who it could be?

    From recent reports Antoinette Sandbach's Brexit stance hasn't been going down very well with her constituents...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,078
    Scott_P said:
    How was Grieve's a compromise? He's a rebel not brokering a compromise.

    The compromise amendment was that done by Letwin surely?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,724
    Polruan said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Not watched the video yet (I shall presently) but if there's no Quitaly pun I shall be mildly disappointed.

    Edited extra bit: CE?!?!

    Mr. 1000, I do like you, but historical revisionist PC acronym abominations do make it difficult.

    Honestly.

    ‘Quitaly’ is a bit anglocentric - shouldnt we be using ‘Uscitalia’?

    It is an anagram of quality, though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,183
    edited June 12
    GIN1138 said:


    Wonder who it could be?

    From recent reports Antoinette Sandbach's Brexit stance hasn't been going down very well with her constituents?
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6487476/antoinette-sanbach-tory-mp-eddisbury-cheshire-police-email/

    An odd thing to report to the police.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,608
    Polruan said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Not watched the video yet (I shall presently) but if there's no Quitaly pun I shall be mildly disappointed.

    Edited extra bit: CE?!?!

    Mr. 1000, I do like you, but historical revisionist PC acronym abominations do make it difficult.

    Honestly.

    ‘Quitaly’ is a bit anglocentric - shouldnt we be using ‘Uscitalia’?

    "Spaghetti Brexit"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,183
    Hoey up for the Gov't.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,994
    Pulpstar said:

    Hoey up for the Gov't.

    :lol:

    We know how she will vote.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,385
    Kate Hoey voting with the Tories.

    Looks like Government will win on the back of Labour Leavers
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,887
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,926
    When's the vote?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,994

    Kate Hoey voting with the Tories.

    Looks like Government will win on the back of Labour Leavers

    A few are priced in iirc.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,183
    Off topic thought - If England exit the world cup quickly enough will Dele Alli be able to go on Love Island xD ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,994
    GIN1138 said:

    When's the vote?

    iirc it was suppose to be around 4pm.

    We are down to 3 mins on speeches now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,183
    Gov't whip certainly earning his money !
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,926

    GIN1138 said:

    When's the vote?

    iirc it was suppose to be around 4pm.

    We are down to 3 mins on speeches now.
    Won't be long then...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,183
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130766060?loginStatus=SUCCESS&ott=M1p0umgkPr4EwH+86wPMY8R3TizAx84HVkheS704izlWvu5UvsxTQqjidQ5ISZRF last matched 1.79.

    I think the Gov't will lose the vote and the price should head out toward even money or so.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,183
    An independent speaks ! Elphicke.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,994
    Pulpstar said:

    An independent speaks ! Elphicke.

    He can't remember whether he is the master or the servant though.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 229
    Their website says votes start at 16:15.
    After that they will have the debate on the Northern Ireland amendments, with the vote on these starting at 19:45.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,354
    Interesting video and a good dynamic having a Leaver and Remainer in charge at PB Towers
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,728
    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic thought - If England exit the world cup quickly enough will Dele Alli be able to go on Love Island xD ?

    Anyone interested in a PB World Cup Fantasy League?

    https://fantasy.fifa.com/en/home
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,926
    edited June 12
    Why not go to the country in July? At least the weather will be nice...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,566
    Mr. Glenn, that raises a question: in such circumstances does May prefer Referendum 2, or General Election 2: Vote Harder?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,183
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic thought - If England exit the world cup quickly enough will Dele Alli be able to go on Love Island xD ?

    Anyone interested in a PB World Cup Fantasy League?

    https://fantasy.fifa.com/en/home
    I have a team in this, whats the league code.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,728

    Polruan said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Not watched the video yet (I shall presently) but if there's no Quitaly pun I shall be mildly disappointed.

    Edited extra bit: CE?!?!

    Mr. 1000, I do like you, but historical revisionist PC acronym abominations do make it difficult.

    Honestly.

    ‘Quitaly’ is a bit anglocentric - shouldnt we be using ‘Uscitalia’?

    Ciaout.
    Definitely!

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,926
    I've been saying 2018 general election for some time.

    Brexiteers won't dare let Theresa May be the one going to the country though... They'll have to get rid of her, install Boris and hope for the best.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,569
    Why would there be an election? A Tory leadership election, sure but not a GE. There's no real need for one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,354
    EEA is obviously out as both Corbyn and May oppose it and Leave voters would go berserk as it requires free movement
  • timmotimmo Posts: 801

    Kate Hoey voting with the Tories.

    Looks like Government will win on the back of Labour Leavers

    And the lack of a lewisham mp
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,728
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic thought - If England exit the world cup quickly enough will Dele Alli be able to go on Love Island xD ?

    Anyone interested in a PB World Cup Fantasy League?

    https://fantasy.fifa.com/en/home
    I have a team in this, whats the league code.
    I am running a team. I have created PB Pineapple Pizzas:

    Code VBMKCEXL

  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,314
    Foxy said:

    Polruan said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Not watched the video yet (I shall presently) but if there's no Quitaly pun I shall be mildly disappointed.

    Edited extra bit: CE?!?!

    Mr. 1000, I do like you, but historical revisionist PC acronym abominations do make it difficult.

    Honestly.

    ‘Quitaly’ is a bit anglocentric - shouldnt we be using ‘Uscitalia’?

    Ciaout.
    Definitely!

    Itaddio
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,994
    5 mins to vote says Laura K.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,994
    Djanolgy not going to rebel???
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,183
    Djanogly up
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,385
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    When's the vote?

    iirc it was suppose to be around 4pm.

    We are down to 3 mins on speeches now.
    Won't be long then...
    2 mins although Djanogly been speaking for 4 so far
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,183
    Field up, Gapes and Owen Jones behind him looking angry.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,183

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    When's the vote?

    iirc it was suppose to be around 4pm.

    We are down to 3 mins on speeches now.
    Won't be long then...
    2 mins although Djanogly been speaking for 4 so far
    Everyone has to get their two pennies in. Sandbach now.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,314
    Pulpstar said:

    Field up, Gapes and Owen Jones behind him looking angry.

    Owen Jones?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,994

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    When's the vote?

    iirc it was suppose to be around 4pm.

    We are down to 3 mins on speeches now.
    Won't be long then...
    2 mins although Djanogly been speaking for 4 so far
    If you give way you get given an extra minute or two iirc
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,385
    Buckfield keeps making concessions
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,994
    Sandbach out
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,566
    Mr. Mule, let's not forget the Austrian presidential election, whereby (on the first run) the ex-Green won by a tiny margin against the sceptical far right chap, only for 'voting irregularities' (turnout exceeding 100% in some places) emerged. The subsequent second run was delayed due to adhesive issues with the envelopes. In the end the ex-Green did end up winning but the road there was not a shining beacon of loveliness.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,994
    Time up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,183
    Looks like the Gov't whip has earned his money today.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,994
    Whisperings of a deal.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,357
    Rebels much on the fudge and we move on towards Brexit...
  • The_Mule_The_Mule_ Posts: 30

    Mr. Mule, let's not forget the Austrian presidential election, whereby (on the first run) the ex-Green won by a tiny margin against the sceptical far right chap, only for 'voting irregularities' (turnout exceeding 100% in some places) emerged. The subsequent second run was delayed due to adhesive issues with the envelopes. In the end the ex-Green did end up winning but the road there was not a shining beacon of loveliness.

    Indeed.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,616
    Tory 'rebels'. A load of piss and wind.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,354
    Wollaston and Sandbach to back the government
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,880
    MaxPB said:

    Why would there be an election? A Tory leadership election, sure but not a GE. There's no real need for one.

    Some Tory MPs genuinely think it could happen and are preparing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,183
    I know he isn't liked by the Brexiteers, but having Bercow as the speaker is effectively another vote for the Gov't on european matters.
This discussion has been closed.