'No there is a Canada style FTA which even Barnier has said is an option for the UK and does not require full FOM'
And how does that deal with the EUs requirements on the NI border - Canada is not in the customs union or Single market is it?
I don't think there is a deal that can be done anyway - we can't even agree what we want let alone persuading the EU - let alone the Walloon regional - parliament to back it. It's not just our decision.
Is being a long term vassal state (the Australian government's words) in the customs union - with no votes and no say and having EU trade deals forced on us while we cannot negotiate our own really what the public wanted when they voted to 'take back control'?
I am not sure bar Gove if there is anyone in the current Cabinet with the drive and competence and imagination to get us out of this mess. Either way we need to take a position and stick to it - because we need some leadership!
EU requirement on NI border is no infrastructure. We should just put up no infrastructure there. As with the US Canada border in the Rockies.
Yes, the EU are playing an all-in bluff on the Irish border, we need to have the guts to call them on it. There’s precisely no chance of the EU erecting a physical border in Ireland.
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge.
No Tory is going to want to make Corbyn PM.
Brexit is not the Alpha and Omega of UK politics.
I suspect for a number of Tory MPs including Grieve it is. In a temporary national government it doesn't have to be Corbyn who is PM though he will have a strong voice. The focus will be entirely on dealing with Brexit so there will be no left wing legislation, and it will be time limited. Perhaps led by a neutral figure non-threatening figure such as Cable?
I think a government of national unity is a very wise and sensible idea.
And for that reason, it has zero chance of happening.
' Pub chain JD Wetherspoon has said it will replace champagne with sparking wines from the UK from next month.
The company's founder, Tim Martin, who campaigned for Brexit, said it was part of a transition away from products made in the European Union.
Under the plan, British wheat beer and alcohol-free beer will replace the current beers brewed in Germany.
Mr Martin said the new drinks would be cheaper than the European Union products that they are replacing.
Wetherspoon, which says it has 2 million customers visiting each week, will replace champagne with sparkling wines from the UK, such as from the Denbies vineyard, and Hardys Sparkling Pinot Chardonnay from Australia.
Its new wheat beers brewed in the UK will include Blue Moon Belgian White, Thornbridge Versa Weisse Beer and SA Brains Atlantic White.
Alcohol-free Adnams Ghost Ship will replace Erdinger alcohol-free beer from Germany.
Wetherspoon will continue to serve Kopparberg cider from Sweden, as the company has said it will transfer production to the UK post-Brexit. "In similar situations we will work closely with suppliers of niche products," Mr Martin said. '
I take it he didn't like your advertising pitch :-)
To be fair I was drinking a very acceptable sparkling wine from Gloucestershire over the weekend. Cheaper than many champagnes, although more expensive than a reasonable Prosecco. Not that I drink a lot of such wines.
Edit. Inability to spell West Country names.
personally I prefer Engilsh Fizz to champagne.
Nyetimber is my favourite
Typical - let them eat cake, eh? Not everyone can afford Nyetimber you know, Alan.
And if you could, why the hell would you drink it in Wetherspoon's?
And self-employed NI of course, that’s the big saving.
If you’re only working for one company, you really need to be either a franchisee (taking business risk) or an employee. In the IT industry we went through all this a decade and more ago with IR35.
Yes, that’s a good example of a quick win agreement, we could do with a few more along similar lines waiting to go. Liam Fox was here in the Gulf a couple of weeks ago, working on enhancement of trade links and I assume making sure that the UK has suffient O&G contingency supplies next year.
But these preparations don’t seem to fit the British media “narrative” so they never get reported.
While that’s good news the devil in the article was that we’ve still not negotiated a similar agreement with the EU. Personally as a ‘holiday flier’ I’ve no interest in going to the US....... can’t afford the health insurance. Now Spain, Portugal on the other hand.......
We share the view that a trade deal with the EU would be good news for everyone.
The EU’s unwillingness to discuss is good news for the hoteliers in Bournemouth, Brighton and Blackpool, not so good for those in Benidorm, Barcelona and the Balearics.
Like the alliteration, if not the thought behind it.
Transport should be a pretty simple thing to roll over with minimal effort, as the consequences of not doing so are huge on both sides. But there has to be a will on the EU side for that deal to be done. Even under the worst crash-out scenario, I’d expect everyone involved to have planes back flying within a few days.
As someone else posted the consequences of British holidaymakers deserting the other off-shore islands (Balearics, Canaries) etc would be as disastrous for them as the said holidaymakers switch to them from Brighton etc was for British resorts in the 60’s. Not to mention Mr O’Leary probably arming his planes and beating up Heathrow!
I agree therefore that the Open Skies will get sorted, although I suspect 2019’s summer might be a difficult one. Personally I’ve been waiting for an excuse for going to the Algarve by train.
'No there is a Canada style FTA which even Barnier has said is an option for the UK and does not require full FOM'
And how does that deal with the EUs requirements on the NI border - Canada is not in the customs union or Single market is it?
I don't think there is a deal that can be done anyway - we can't even agree what we want let alone persuading the EU - let alone the Walloon regional - parliament to back it. It's not just our decision.
Is being a long term vassal state (the Australian government's words) in the customs union - with no votes and no say and having EU trade deals forced on us while we cannot negotiate our own really what the public wanted when they voted to 'take back control'?
I am not sure bar Gove if there is anyone in the current Cabinet with the drive and competence and imagination to get us out of this mess. Either way we need to take a position and stick to it - because we need some leadership!
EU requirement on NI border is no infrastructure. We should just put up no infrastructure there. As with the US Canada border in the Rockies.
The US Canada border in the Rockies has a six metre wide cutaway border vista through the forest marking the frontier, hidden sensors on mountain trails to catch incursions and border guards patrolling it. Good luck with that in Ireland.
And self-employed NI of course, that’s the big saving.
If you’re only working for one company, you really need to be either a franchisee (taking business risk) or an employee. In the IT industry we went through all this a decade and more ago with IR35.
I have to say that has crossed my mind a number of times. How can it no longer be possible to pull this stunt as a consultant in the IT industry, but it seems lots of other industries still do the same thing, cough cough BBC employees.
'No there is a Canada style FTA which even Barnier has said is an option for the UK and does not require full FOM'
And how does that deal with the EUs requirements on the NI border - Canada is not in the customs union or Single market is it?
I don't think there is a deal that can be done anyway - we can't even agree what we want let alone persuading the EU - let alone the Walloon regional - parliament to back it. It's not just our decision.
Is being a long term vassal state (the Australian government's words) in the customs union - with no votes and no say and having EU trade deals forced on us while we cannot negotiate our own really what the public wanted when they voted to 'take back control'?
I am not sure bar Gove if there is anyone in the current Cabinet with the drive and competence and imagination to get us out of this mess. Either way we need to take a position and stick to it - because we need some leadership!
EU requirement on NI border is no infrastructure. We should just put up no infrastructure there. As with the US Canada border in the Rockies.
Yes, the EU are playing an all-in bluff on the Irish border, we need to have the guts to call them on it. There’s precisely no chance of the EU erecting a physical border in Ireland.
Yes, I'd like to see the reaction of Gerry when Junker says that the EU will impose a border on traffic coming in from NI to RoI, especially given that the government can choose not to have a border in the other direction. As I said a few days ago, those Eurocrats would need to start looking over their shoulders and sweeping for IRA bombs.
I also think it would concentrate minds in Ireland as to just how much sovereignty they have handed over to the EU, something the EU would be unwise to bring attention to.
In the end if the UK government says "fuck that, we'll keep out border open, you do what you want" then the onus falls on the EU and Varadkar to follow suit or stop Irish people in the North from going into the South.
' Pub chain JD Wetherspoon has said it will replace champagne with sparking wines from the UK from next month.
The company's founder, Tim Martin, who campaigned for Brexit, said it was part of a transition away from products made in the European Union.
Under the plan, British wheat beer and alcohol-free beer will replace the current beers brewed in Germany.
Mr Martin said the new drinks would be cheaper than the European Union products that they are replacing.
Wetherspoon, which says it has 2 million customers visiting each week, will replace champagne with sparkling wines from the UK, such as from the Denbies vineyard, and Hardys Sparkling Pinot Chardonnay from Australia.
Its new wheat beers brewed in the UK will include Blue Moon Belgian White, Thornbridge Versa Weisse Beer and SA Brains Atlantic White.
Alcohol-free Adnams Ghost Ship will replace Erdinger alcohol-free beer from Germany.
Wetherspoon will continue to serve Kopparberg cider from Sweden, as the company has said it will transfer production to the UK post-Brexit. "In similar situations we will work closely with suppliers of niche products," Mr Martin said. '
I take it he didn't like your advertising pitch :-)
To be fair I was drinking a very acceptable sparkling wine from Gloucestershire over the weekend. Cheaper than many champagnes, although more expensive than a reasonable Prosecco. Not that I drink a lot of such wines.
Quick on topic comment. I've not had the chance to read the whole thread so apologies if this duplicates the thoughts of others.
Alastair asks the right questions and gives - to my mind - most, but not all, of the right answers.
The first point where I disagree with his analysis is where he says "If they were sure of their ground they would be acting now. Because if they were sure of their ground they could impose their will on the rest of the party."
I don't think that's true. If they were to act now, they'd paralyse the process of getting the Brexit legislation through before the Summer recess. That *might* not matter - there are other opportunities in the Autumn - but it would leave a clear gap in the process and an important step unfulfilled. The alternative, which Alastair quotes, of acting as soon as the legislation's signed off, is much cleaner. I think the error is to assume that being sure of their ground means being able to impose their will: it doesn't. There is a broad assumption that May should not fight another election as leader. For that reason, i think that whenever a VoNC is held, she'll lose; there are plenty who will vote against her for reasons other than Brexit - but they're in no hurry to do so (unlike the Brexiteers). There's a very decent chance of a challenge this summer, and the chances of her being replaced are a good deal higher than the 3/1 he quotes.
I also disagree that May could stumble on if she had well over 100 opposed to her in a VoNC. I think that would be Men In Grey Suits time and she would be expected to do the decent thing - with the threat of ministerial resignations making her position untenable if she didn't. I'd take the tipping point as around 105-120 votes against.
The final point I'd dispute is on the succession. Alastair rightly says that the consideration is two-fold: that no-one unacceptable stands a reasonable chance of winning, and that there is at least one alternative leader acceptable to a broad range of MPs. But he also says, and I agree, that JRM's star is on the wane. The chance of him making the final two is probably something that MPs could live with. On the other side of the equation, there are probably enough cabinet ministers who could do the job for a contest to be viable.
Conclusion: that there's a much better than 25% chance of a new Con leader this summer, and that if there is, the new one is almost certainly already in the cabinet.
'No there is a Canada style FTA which even Barnier has said is an option for the UK and does not require full FOM'
And how does that deal with the EUs requirements on the NI border - Canada is not in the customs union or Single market is it?
I don't think there is a deal that can be done anyway - we can't even agree what we want let alone persuading the EU - let alone the Walloon regional - parliament to back it. It's not just our decision.
Is being a long term vassal state (the Australian government's words) in the customs union - with no votes and no say and having EU trade deals forced on us while we cannot negotiate our own really what the public wanted when they voted to 'take back control'?
I am not sure bar Gove if there is anyone in the current Cabinet with the drive and competence and imagination to get us out of this mess. Either way we need to take a position and stick to it - because we need some leadership!
EU requirement on NI border is no infrastructure. We should just put up no infrastructure there. As with the US Canada border in the Rockies.
The US Canada border in the Rockies has a six metre wide cutaway border vista through the forest marking the frontier, hidden sensors on mountain trails to catch incursions and border guards patrolling it. Good luck with that in Ireland.
That's to catch illegal immigrants, not for customs. We already have free movement of people within the UK and Ireland. It's called the CTA. Ireland has a hard border for travel with the continent and no border with the UK. The onus, again, is on Ireland to leave the CTA, we won't. What the EU is talking about is customs infrastructure. The UK government can, unilaterally, say we won't have a customs border between NI and RoI. If the EU wants to put one up the other way to stop British goods from going into Ireland then that is up to them, not us.
And self-employed NI of course, that’s the big saving.
If you’re only working for one company, you really need to be either a franchisee (taking business risk) or an employee. In the IT industry we went through all this a decade and more ago with IR35.
I have to say that has crossed my mind a number of times. How can it no longer be possible to pull this stunt as a consultant in the IT industry, but it seems lots of other industries still do the same thing, cough cough BBC employees.
You mean cough cough BBC management, who forced it onto employees. This has also been the pattern elsewhere, though I've not read the Pimlico Plumbers case.
And self-employed NI of course, that’s the big saving.
If you’re only working for one company, you really need to be either a franchisee (taking business risk) or an employee. In the IT industry we went through all this a decade and more ago with IR35.
I have to say that has crossed my mind a number of times. How can it no longer be possible to pull this stunt as a consultant in the IT industry, but it seems lots of other industries still do the same thing, cough cough BBC employees.
And one by one they’re getting found out for it. The key is that to be self employed you really need to work for more than one company at the same time, certainly over a tax year. In the arts short term contracts are normal (a theatre or TV company might contract you for three months for a project) and most people there are genuinely self employed. IMO someone contracted to appear five days a week for 45 weeks a year for several years is doing a full time job, even if they can also make a bit of cash on the side with a newspaper column or a comedy panel show guest appearance. Someone reading the news 2 days a week and free to work for anyone else the rest of the time is genuinely self employed though.
Mr. Sandpit, is it ISIS? I thought the Houthi rebels were backed by Iran.
It’s a pretty messy civil war, that has split the region in two. The rebel fighters are mostly from Iran and funded by Qatar, they’re trying to capture Yemen to create a Shia state to rival the Sunni Saudi Arabia. The Yemeni government asked Saudi and other Gulf states to defend them, which is what’s happening.
It’s also worth noting that we are two days from the end of Ramadan, and the start of the major Eid-al-Fitr holiday.
Good to get it confirmed that the Iran backed, largely Shia Houthis are not the Saudi backed, Sunni ISIS.
While that’s good news the devil in the article was that we’ve still not negotiated a similar agreement with the EU. Personally as a ‘holiday flier’ I’ve no interest in going to the US....... can’t afford the health insurance. Now Spain, Portugal on the other hand.......
We share the view that a trade deal with the EU would be good news for everyone.
The EU’s unwillingness to discuss is good news for the hoteliers in Bournemouth, Brighton and Blackpool, not so good for those in Benidorm, Barcelona and the Balearics.
Like the alliteration, if not the thought behind it.
Transport should be a pretty simple thing to roll over with minimal effort, as the consequences of not doing so are huge on both sides. But there has to be a will on the EU side for that deal to be done. Even under the worst crash-out scenario, I’d expect everyone involved to have planes back flying within a few days.
As someone else posted the consequences of British holidaymakers deserting the other off-shore islands (Balearics, Canaries) etc would be as disastrous for them as the said holidaymakers switch to them from Brighton etc was for British resorts in the 60’s. Not to mention Mr O’Leary probably arming his planes and beating up Heathrow!
I agree therefore that the Open Skies will get sorted, although I suspect 2019’s summer might be a difficult one. Personally I’ve been waiting for an excuse for going to the Algarve by train.
Long train tourneys are very cool, my wife and I plan to do the Trans-Siberian one day.
Yes, there’s whole towns in Southern Europe that live purely on the British summer holiday trade, any uncertainty about this could sink them, even if a last minute deal is done in the end. I imagine that as they wind down this year’s season in September, all their attention will be on Brussels.
Mr. Sandpit, is it ISIS? I thought the Houthi rebels were backed by Iran.
It’s a pretty messy civil war, that has split the region in two. The rebel fighters are mostly from Iran and funded by Qatar, they’re trying to capture Yemen to create a Shia state to rival the Sunni Saudi Arabia. The Yemeni government asked Saudi and other Gulf states to defend them, which is what’s happening.
It’s also worth noting that we are two days from the end of Ramadan, and the start of the major Eid-al-Fitr holiday.
Good to get it confirmed that the Iran backed, largely Shia Houthis are not the Saudi backed, Sunni ISIS.
While that’s good news the devil in the article was that we’ve still not negotiated a similar agreement with the EU. Personally as a ‘holiday flier’ I’ve no interest in going to the US....... can’t afford the health insurance. Now Spain, Portugal on the other hand.......
We share the view that a trade deal with the EU would be good news for everyone.
The EU’s unwillingness to discuss is good news for the hoteliers in Bournemouth, Brighton and Blackpool, not so good for those in Benidorm, Barcelona and the Balearics.
Like the alliteration, if not the thought behind it.
Transport should be a pretty simple thing to roll over with minimal effort, as the consequences of not doing so are huge on both sides. But there has to be a will on the EU side for that deal to be done. Even under the worst crash-out scenario, I’d expect everyone involved to have planes back flying within a few days.
As someone else posted the consequences of British holidaymakers deserting the other off-shore islands (Balearics, Canaries) etc would be as disastrous for them as the said holidaymakers switch to them from Brighton etc was for British resorts in the 60’s. Not to mention Mr O’Leary probably arming his planes and beating up Heathrow!
I agree therefore that the Open Skies will get sorted, although I suspect 2019’s summer might be a difficult one. Personally I’ve been waiting for an excuse for going to the Algarve by train.
Long train tourneys are very cool, my wife and I plan to do the Trans-Siberian one day.
Yes, there’s whole towns in Southern Europe that live purely on the British summer holiday trade, any uncertainty about this could sink them, even if a last minute deal is done in the end. I imagine that as they wind down this year’s season in September, all their attention will be on Brussels.
A few years ago I was in a bar in a holiday resort in Turkey. The bar owner was bewailing the fact that a neighbouring hotel had been taken over by a Russian company, and provided full board for those resident there. They didn’t, apparently, even go in for a drink on an evening out.
' Pub chain JD Wetherspoon has said it will replace champagne with sparking wines from the UK from next month.
The company's founder, Tim Martin, who campaigned for Brexit, said it was part of a transition away from products made in the European Union.
Under the plan, British wheat beer and alcohol-free beer will replace the current beers brewed in Germany.
Mr Martin said the new drinks would be cheaper than the European Union products that they are replacing.
Wetherspoon, which says it has 2 million customers visiting each week, will replace champagne with sparkling wines from the UK, such as from the Denbies vineyard, and Hardys Sparkling Pinot Chardonnay from Australia.
Its new wheat beers brewed in the UK will include Blue Moon Belgian White, Thornbridge Versa Weisse Beer and SA Brains Atlantic White.
Alcohol-free Adnams Ghost Ship will replace Erdinger alcohol-free beer from Germany.
Wetherspoon will continue to serve Kopparberg cider from Sweden, as the company has said it will transfer production to the UK post-Brexit. "In similar situations we will work closely with suppliers of niche products," Mr Martin said. '
I take it he didn't like your advertising pitch :-)
To be fair I was drinking a very acceptable sparkling wine from Gloucestershire over the weekend. Cheaper than many champagnes, although more expensive than a reasonable Prosecco. Not that I drink a lot of such wines.
Edit. Inability to spell West Country names.
personally I prefer Engilsh Fizz to champagne.
Nyetimber is my favourite
Say it with a straight face!
No it's true.
Even the French prefer English Nyetimber to Champagne in blind tastings.
'No there is a Canada style FTA which even Barnier has said is an option for the UK and does not require full FOM'
And how does that deal with the EUs requirements on the NI border - Canada is not in the customs union or Single market is it?
I don't think there is a deal that can be done anyway - we can't even agree what we want let alone persuading the EU - let alone the Walloon regional - parliament to back it. It's not just our decision.
Is being a long term vassal state (the Australian government's words) in the customs union - with no votes and no say and having EU trade deals forced on us while we cannot negotiate our own really what the public wanted when they voted to 'take back control'?
I am not sure bar Gove if there is anyone in the current Cabinet with the drive and competence and imagination to get us out of this mess. Either way we need to take a position and stick to it - because we need some leadership!
Border in the Irish sea. It's the solution even if the DUP don't like it.
While that’s good news the devil in the article was that we’ve still not negotiated a similar agreement with the EU. Personally as a ‘holiday flier’ I’ve no interest in going to the US....... can’t afford the health insurance. Now Spain, Portugal on the other hand.......
We share the view that a trade deal with the EU would be good news for everyone.
The EU’s unwillingness to discuss is good news for the hoteliers in Bournemouth, Brighton and Blackpool, not so good for those in Benidorm, Barcelona and the Balearics.
Like the alliteration, if not the thought behind it.
Transport should be a pretty simple thing to roll over with minimal effort, as the consequences of not doing so are huge on both sides. But there has to be a will on the EU side for that deal to be done. Even under the worst crash-out scenario, I’d expect everyone involved to have planes back flying within a few days.
As someone else posted the consequences of British holidaymakers deserting the other off-shore islands (Balearics, Canaries) etc would be as disastrous for them as the said holidaymakers switch to them from Brighton etc was for British resorts in the 60’s. Not to mention Mr O’Leary probably arming his planes and beating up Heathrow!
I agree therefore that the Open Skies will get sorted, although I suspect 2019’s summer might be a difficult one. Personally I’ve been waiting for an excuse for going to the Algarve by train.
Long train tourneys are very cool, my wife and I plan to do the Trans-Siberian one day.
Yes, there’s whole towns in Southern Europe that live purely on the British summer holiday trade, any uncertainty about this could sink them, even if a last minute deal is done in the end. I imagine that as they wind down this year’s season in September, all their attention will be on Brussels.
Will that be a one-way ticket on the Trans-Siberian railway?
'No there is a Canada style FTA which even Barnier has said is an option for the UK and does not require full FOM'
And how does that deal with the EUs requirements on the NI border - Canada is not in the customs union or Single market is it?
I don't think there is a deal that can be done anyway - we can't even agree what we want let alone persuading the EU - let alone the Walloon regional - parliament to back it. It's not just our decision.
Is being a long term vassal state (the Australian government's words) in the customs union - with no votes and no say and having EU trade deals forced on us while we cannot negotiate our own really what the public wanted when they voted to 'take back control'?
I am not sure bar Gove if there is anyone in the current Cabinet with the drive and competence and imagination to get us out of this mess. Either way we need to take a position and stick to it - because we need some leadership!
The only solution, bar a crash out, that is acceptable to the EU is an extended SM/CU deal that gets us out of the political structure of the EU without too much economic damage and gives us time and space and another GE to decide on a longer term solution. Or revoke A50 and face down those who voted leave.
EDIT: That's it
Crash out - acceptable to perhaps 10% extended SM/CU - reluctantly acceptable to perhaps 60% revoke A50 - acceptable to perhaps 50%
Like the alliteration, if not the thought behind it.
Transport should be a pretty simple thing to roll over with minimal effort, as the consequences of not doing so are huge on both sides. But there has to be a will on the EU side for that deal to be done. Even under the worst crash-out scenario, I’d expect everyone involved to have planes back flying within a few days.
As someone else posted the consequences of British holidaymakers deserting the other off-shore islands (Balearics, Canaries) etc would be as disastrous for them as the said holidaymakers switch to them from Brighton etc was for British resorts in the 60’s. Not to mention Mr O’Leary probably arming his planes and beating up Heathrow!
I agree therefore that the Open Skies will get sorted, although I suspect 2019’s summer might be a difficult one. Personally I’ve been waiting for an excuse for going to the Algarve by train.
Long train tourneys are very cool, my wife and I plan to do the Trans-Siberian one day.
Yes, there’s whole towns in Southern Europe that live purely on the British summer holiday trade, any uncertainty about this could sink them, even if a last minute deal is done in the end. I imagine that as they wind down this year’s season in September, all their attention will be on Brussels.
A few years ago I was in a bar in a holiday resort in Turkey. The bar owner was bewailing the fact that a neighbouring hotel had been taken over by a Russian company, and provided full board for those resident there. They didn’t, apparently, even go in for a drink on an evening out.
A very fickle and very competitive industry, with a lot of interdependency between hotels, bars, tour operators and airlines, as well as between tourists, locals and authorities with different priorities. Not an easy trade, as you said Blackpool discovered half a century ago.
'No there is a Canada style FTA which even Barnier has said is an option for the UK and does not require full FOM'
And how does that deal with the EUs requirements on the NI border - Canada is not in the customs union or Single market is it?
I don't think there is a deal that can be done anyway - we can't even agree what we want let alone persuading the EU - let alone the Walloon regional - parliament to back it. It's not just our decision.
Is being a long term vassal state (the Australian government's words) in the customs union - with no votes and no say and having EU trade deals forced on us while we cannot negotiate our own really what the public wanted when they voted to 'take back control'?
I am not sure bar Gove if there is anyone in the current Cabinet with the drive and competence and imagination to get us out of this mess. Either way we need to take a position and stick to it - because we need some leadership!
The only solution, bar a crash out, that is acceptable to the EU is an extended SM/CU deal that gets us out of the political structure of the EU without too much economic damage and gives us time and space and another GE to decide on a longer term solution. Or revoke A50 and face down those who voted leave.
EDIT: That's it
Crash out - acceptable to perhaps 10% extended SM/CU - reluctantly acceptable to perhaps 60% revoke A50 - acceptable to perhaps 50%
I think you don't understand the British public in that case. It's probably more like 25% for option one, 40% for option two and 30% for option 3. Part of the reason the government is finding it tough to settle the Brexit question is because the people don't know what they want from Brexit other than for it to happen.
I think the most supported idea would be exit to the EEA for 5-7 years as a long term transition. It would probably be close to the 60% figure you think would be happy to stay in the customs union and EEA.
'No there is a Canada style FTA which even Barnier has said is an option for the UK and does not require full FOM'
And how does that deal with the EUs requirements on the NI border - Canada is not in the customs union or Single market is it?
I don't think there is a deal that can be done anyway - we can't even agree what we want let alone persuading the EU - let alone the Walloon regional - parliament to back it. It's not just our decision.
Is being a long term vassal state (the Australian government's words) in the customs union - with no votes and no say and having EU trade deals forced on us while we cannot negotiate our own really what the public wanted when they voted to 'take back control'?
I am not sure bar Gove if there is anyone in the current Cabinet with the drive and competence and imagination to get us out of this mess. Either way we need to take a position and stick to it - because we need some leadership!
The only solution, bar a crash out, that is acceptable to the EU is an extended SM/CU deal that gets us out of the political structure of the EU without too much economic damage and gives us time and space and another GE to decide on a longer term solution. Or revoke A50 and face down those who voted leave.
EDIT: That's it
Crash out - acceptable to perhaps 10% extended SM/CU - reluctantly acceptable to perhaps 60% revoke A50 - acceptable to perhaps 50%
I think the only scenario that would be acceptable to a majority of the country is the mythical one of continuing Single Market and Customs Union membership without Freedom of Movement.
That's why we are in such a mess.
During the referendum campaign Leave voters were told that they could "take back control" to end immigration and that there would be no consequent economic price to pay. The circle cannot be squared.
Good thread header as usual Alastair. The fact that she's still there after the past 2 years suggests your analysis is spot on. I continue to expect her to lead the Tories (most likely to defeat) in the 2022 GE.
PS I'm struggling to decide what your keyword is this time - Parthian? Robespierre?
I often include a classical allusion for Morris Dancer, who I know has a deep distrust of anything after 476CE.
To answer your question, this article has two separate phrases I intended to remember for googling purposes. But on reflection, both are problematic. The first is "threatened women" and the second is "come at the queen". The results for either search are likely to be eyebrow-raising. Perhaps I will use Parthian after all.
While that’s good news the devil in the article was that we’ve still not negotiated a similar agreement with the EU. Personally as a ‘holiday flier’ I’ve no interest in going to the US....... can’t afford the health insurance. Now Spain, Portugal on the other hand.......
We share the view that a trade deal with the EU would be good news for everyone.
The EU’s unwillingness to discuss is good news for the hoteliers in Bournemouth, Brighton and Blackpool, not so good for those in Benidorm, Barcelona and the Balearics.
Like the alliteration, if not the thought behind it.
Transport should be a pretty simple thing to roll over with minimal effort, as the consequences of not doing so are huge on both sides. But there has to be a will on the EU side for that deal to be done. Even under the worst crash-out scenario, I’d expect everyone involved to have planes back flying within a few days.
As someone else posted the consequences of British holidaymakers deserting the other off-shore islands (Balearics, Canaries) etc would be as disastrous for them as the said holidaymakers switch to them from Brighton etc was for British resorts in the 60’s. Not to mention Mr O’Leary probably arming his planes and beating up Heathrow!
I agree therefore that the Open Skies will get sorted, although I suspect 2019’s summer might be a difficult one. Personally I’ve been waiting for an excuse for going to the Algarve by train.
Long train tourneys are very cool, my wife and I plan to do the Trans-Siberian one day.
Yes, there’s whole towns in Southern Europe that live purely on the British summer holiday trade, any uncertainty about this could sink them, even if a last minute deal is done in the end. I imagine that as they wind down this year’s season in September, all their attention will be on Brussels.
Will that be a one-way ticket on the Trans-Siberian railway?
Been there, done that. Very much recommended. Go second class - fewer tourists and a better insight into Russia.
To do it properly, you should go to Moscow by train too, which is easy enough: there's a sleeper direct from Paris, although it does mean having to get a belorussian transit visa too. (This has changed since when I went, when you'd pick up the sleeper from Amsterdam at Cologne, so taking the Eurostar to Brussels and then a Thalys to Cologne).
Even in the fraught and dramatic context of the Spanish national football team, this story must be up there as one of the most outlandish sporting episodes ever. Words fail me.
Good thread header as usual Alastair. The fact that she's still there after the past 2 years suggests your analysis is spot on. I continue to expect her to lead the Tories (most likely to defeat) in the 2022 GE.
PS I'm struggling to decide what your keyword is this time - Parthian? Robespierre?
I often include a classical allusion for Morris Dancer, who I know has a deep distrust of anything after 476CE.
To answer your question, this article has two separate phrases I intended to remember for googling purposes. But on reflection, both are problematic. The first is "threatened women" and the second is "come at the queen". The results for either search are likely to be eyebrow-raising. Perhaps I will use Parthian after all.
Pretty sure that he also has a deep distrust of the CE formulation. But you probably knew that.
Going through pre-referendum threads is interesting.
watford30: "It will be absolute carnage if HMG have failed in their duty to plan for a Leave result.
At which point one would expect Cameron to call a General Election to elect a more competent government."
SouthamObserver: "The 330,000 figure has killed Remain stone dead. There is no answer. Dave and George have spent many years talking about the negatives of high levels immigration, without explaining that their entire economic and financial strategy is dependent on it. I am not sure what else they could possibly have expected. If you keep telling the voters something is bad, then you can't blame voters when they take you at your word." (May 30)
The whole Theresa longevity debate reminds me of Churchill's description of democracy, given the dearth of talent and excess of psychosis in the present-day Tory party.
She's the worst form of PM except for all the alternatives that are proposed from time to time.
It's saved her up to now - but she barely seems to even be a PM right now, given she seems to have zero control over her own Cabinet, let alone riotous backbenchers, and the can kicking is actively harming us now as it prevents anything being achieved.
Good thread header as usual Alastair. The fact that she's still there after the past 2 years suggests your analysis is spot on. I continue to expect her to lead the Tories (most likely to defeat) in the 2022 GE.
PS I'm struggling to decide what your keyword is this time - Parthian? Robespierre?
I often include a classical allusion for Morris Dancer, who I know has a deep distrust of anything after 476CE.
To answer your question, this article has two separate phrases I intended to remember for googling purposes. But on reflection, both are problematic. The first is "threatened women" and the second is "come at the queen". The results for either search are likely to be eyebrow-raising. Perhaps I will use Parthian after all.
Pretty sure that he also has a deep distrust of the CE formulation. But you probably knew that.
Although T. May is coming in for much criticism, it is possible to see her as a mildly heroic figure. This is a bloody thankless task. She is bound to disappoint almost everyone. And there are bucketloads of shit waiting to be poured over her by many people, no matter what happens.
It was a thankless task, and very difficult, which she made harder by doing poorly in a snap election of course, and it has bought her plenty of leeway I think, particularly as some are self evidently maneuvering to replace her once they can safely lump as much blame for the brexit outcome on her as they can (given the level of whinge from Boris and co, it is the only explanation for why they didn't act sooner if they are willing to leak how angry they are all the time).
But that leeway only goes so far. Disappoint everyone, sure, that is likely true when the parliament is as split as it is, but even for a shit hand she seems to have played it very poorly at every turn.
Long train tourneys are very cool, my wife and I plan to do the Trans-Siberian one day.
I did it with my mate when I lived in Moscow. In a hair brained scheme we went to Vladivostok on the "002" train and picked up a Japanese import LandCruiser which we then drove to Novosibirsk. My wife just assumed she'd never see me again.
It's very claustrophobic and smelly even in 1st class. The food is fucking rank (and I went to boarding school and was in the RN so I know rank when I gag it down) as might be expected from a Russian state directed enterprise. You'll spend the whole trip medicating yourself trying to hit the sweet spot between constipation and the runs.
Chinese trains are much nicer. The "003" train which also leaves from the Yaroslavsky station is run by Chinese Railways and is supposed to be better than the "002".
The whole Theresa longevity debate reminds me of Churchill's description of democracy, given the dearth of talent and excess of psychosis in the present-day Tory party.
She's the worst form of PM except for all the alternatives that are proposed from time to time.
It's saved her up to now - but she barely seems to even be a PM right now, given she seems to have zero control over her own Cabinet, let alone riotous backbenchers, and the can kicking is actively harming us now as it prevents anything being achieved.
Hmm actually I think yesterday showed she probably has a bit more authority than we think. Certainly Julian Smith earnt his money.
'No there is a Canada style FTA which even Barnier has said is an option for the UK and does not require full FOM'
And how does that deal with the EUs requirements on the NI border - Canada is not in the customs union or Single market is it?
I don't think there is a deal that can be done anyway - we can't even agree what we want let alone persuading the EU - let alone the Walloon regional - parliament to back it. It's not just our decision.
Is being a long term vassal state (the Australian government's words) in the customs union - with no votes and no say and having EU trade deals forced on us while we cannot negotiate our own really what the public wanted when they voted to 'take back control'?
I am not sure bar Gove if there is anyone in the current Cabinet with the drive and competence and imagination to get us out of this mess. Either way we need to take a position and stick to it - because we need some leadership!
The only solution, bar a crash out, that is acceptable to the EU is an extended SM/CU deal that gets us out of the political structure of the EU without too much economic damage and gives us time and space and another GE to decide on a longer term solution. Or revoke A50 and face down those who voted leave.
EDIT: That's it
Crash out - acceptable to perhaps 10% extended SM/CU - reluctantly acceptable to perhaps 60% revoke A50 - acceptable to perhaps 50%
I think you don't understand the British public in that case. It's probably more like 25% for option one, 40% for option two and 30% for option 3. Part of the reason the government is finding it tough to settle the Brexit question is because the people don't know what they want from Brexit other than for it to happen.
I think the most supported idea would be exit to the EEA for 5-7 years as a long term transition. It would probably be close to the 60% figure you think would be happy to stay in the customs union and EEA.
Yes - when I said extended SM/CU I meant a long term transition with time to agree, negotiate and plan for the long term destination. I think it would also be acceptable to the EU. We are slowly and painfully moving in that direction.
The whole Theresa longevity debate reminds me of Churchill's description of democracy, given the dearth of talent and excess of psychosis in the present-day Tory party.
She's the worst form of PM except for all the alternatives that are proposed from time to time.
It's saved her up to now - but she barely seems to even be a PM right now, given she seems to have zero control over her own Cabinet, let alone riotous backbenchers, and the can kicking is actively harming us now as it prevents anything being achieved.
Hmm actually I think yesterday showed she probably has a bit more authority than we think. Certainly Julian Smith earnt his money.
It seemed so,but the reaction since has shown it to be a Pyrrhic victory, which may have cut her time shorter, even if it won't be right away. We knew already that one side were gunning for her, but there's less incentive now for the other to defend her.
FFS, I drew Spain in my work sweepstake, that's 20 francs I won't get back.
I drew Iran in the work sweepstake.
Lol! I got Saudi Arabia in the family one, there's a wooden spoon prize there so I'm in the running for £30.
Traitorous Remainer that I am laying England.
I’ve been backing Germany, France, Spain, Brazil, and Belgium, all of them at various odds since 2014.
There’s some great offers/specials/money back offers out there.
It must be a reasonable assumption that England are going to be shorter than they should be with any English bookmaker, as the sheer weight of money from casual bettors piles onto them before each match.
The whole Theresa longevity debate reminds me of Churchill's description of democracy, given the dearth of talent and excess of psychosis in the present-day Tory party.
She's the worst form of PM except for all the alternatives that are proposed from time to time.
It's saved her up to now - but she barely seems to even be a PM right now, given she seems to have zero control over her own Cabinet, let alone riotous backbenchers, and the can kicking is actively harming us now as it prevents anything being achieved.
Hmm actually I think yesterday showed she probably has a bit more authority than we think. Certainly Julian Smith earnt his money.
Her promises will be worth absolutely zero at the next crunch vote. Her personal authority is gone. She is a lame duck PM.
Although T. May is coming in for much criticism, it is possible to see her as a mildly heroic figure. This is a bloody thankless task. She is bound to disappoint almost everyone. And there are bucketloads of shit waiting to be poured over her by many people, no matter what happens.
It was a thankless task, and very difficult, which she made harder by doing poorly in a snap election of course, and it has bought her plenty of leeway I think, particularly as some are self evidently maneuvering to replace her once they can safely lump as much blame for the brexit outcome on her as they can (given the level of whinge from Boris and co, it is the only explanation for why they didn't act sooner if they are willing to leak how angry they are all the time).
But that leeway only goes so far. Disappoint everyone, sure, that is likely true when the parliament is as split as it is, but even for a shit hand she seems to have played it very poorly at every turn.
What could she have done differently which would have made any difference especially considering the EUs attitude?
Although T. May is coming in for much criticism, it is possible to see her as a mildly heroic figure. This is a bloody thankless task. She is bound to disappoint almost everyone. And there are bucketloads of shit waiting to be poured over her by many people, no matter what happens.
It was a thankless task, and very difficult, which she made harder by doing poorly in a snap election of course, and it has bought her plenty of leeway I think, particularly as some are self evidently maneuvering to replace her once they can safely lump as much blame for the brexit outcome on her as they can (given the level of whinge from Boris and co, it is the only explanation for why they didn't act sooner if they are willing to leak how angry they are all the time).
But that leeway only goes so far. Disappoint everyone, sure, that is likely true when the parliament is as split as it is, but even for a shit hand she seems to have played it very poorly at every turn.
What could she have done differently which would have made any difference especially considering the EUs attitude?
It was reasonable to assume 2 years down the line that she could have at least managed to get her own Cabinet on board with something. We haven't even really had the chance to try to change the EU's attitude, successfully or not, because they are still reliant on last minute fudges just to keep Cabinet members from flouncing out. Failure to get agreement on what we'd even ask for (let alone get) means we've used up a lot of not much time.
Although T. May is coming in for much criticism, it is possible to see her as a mildly heroic figure. This is a bloody thankless task. She is bound to disappoint almost everyone. And there are bucketloads of shit waiting to be poured over her by many people, no matter what happens.
It was a thankless task, and very difficult, which she made harder by doing poorly in a snap election of course, and it has bought her plenty of leeway I think, particularly as some are self evidently maneuvering to replace her once they can safely lump as much blame for the brexit outcome on her as they can (given the level of whinge from Boris and co, it is the only explanation for why they didn't act sooner if they are willing to leak how angry they are all the time).
But that leeway only goes so far. Disappoint everyone, sure, that is likely true when the parliament is as split as it is, but even for a shit hand she seems to have played it very poorly at every turn.
What could she have done differently which would have made any difference especially considering the EUs attitude?
Decided what we wanted on Trade before now.
She is still negotiating with her own party more than 2 years since the vote.
Mr. kle4, poor Pyrrhus. He was a far better leader than the expression that uses his name would suggest.
Maybe. It's not quite as misunderstood as Canute though, as Pyrrhus is know to be a winner, and I'd think most people would appreciate you can win a battle but lose a war through no real fault of your own.
Although T. May is coming in for much criticism, it is possible to see her as a mildly heroic figure. This is a bloody thankless task. She is bound to disappoint almost everyone. And there are bucketloads of shit waiting to be poured over her by many people, no matter what happens.
It was a thankless task, and very difficult, which she made harder by doing poorly in a snap election of course, and it has bought her plenty of leeway I think, particularly as some are self evidently maneuvering to replace her once they can safely lump as much blame for the brexit outcome on her as they can (given the level of whinge from Boris and co, it is the only explanation for why they didn't act sooner if they are willing to leak how angry they are all the time).
But that leeway only goes so far. Disappoint everyone, sure, that is likely true when the parliament is as split as it is, but even for a shit hand she seems to have played it very poorly at every turn.
What could she have done differently which would have made any difference especially considering the EUs attitude?
It was reasonable to assume 2 years down the line that she could have at least managed to get her own Cabinet on board with something. We haven't even really had the chance to try to change the EU's attitude, successfully or not, because they are still reliant on last minute fudges just to keep Cabinet members from flouncing out. Failure to get agreement on what we'd even ask for (let alone get) means we've used up a lot of not much time.
The EU will accept nothing at the moment so to get them on side has been impossible. Who do you think could have done better?
Although T. May is coming in for much criticism, it is possible to see her as a mildly heroic figure. This is a bloody thankless task. She is bound to disappoint almost everyone. And there are bucketloads of shit waiting to be poured over her by many people, no matter what happens.
It was a thankless task, and very difficult, which she made harder by doing poorly in a snap election of course, and it has bought her plenty of leeway I think, particularly as some are self evidently maneuvering to replace her once they can safely lump as much blame for the brexit outcome on her as they can (given the level of whinge from Boris and co, it is the only explanation for why they didn't act sooner if they are willing to leak how angry they are all the time).
But that leeway only goes so far. Disappoint everyone, sure, that is likely true when the parliament is as split as it is, but even for a shit hand she seems to have played it very poorly at every turn.
What could she have done differently which would have made any difference especially considering the EUs attitude?
While that’s good news the devil in the article was that we’ve still not negotiated a similar agreement with the EU. Personally as a ‘holiday flier’ I’ve no interest in going to the US....... can’t afford the health insurance. Now Spain, Portugal on the other hand.......
We share the view that a trade deal with the EU would be good news for everyone.
The EU’s unwillingness to discuss is good news for the hoteliers in Bournemouth, Brighton and Blackpool, not so good for those in Benidorm, Barcelona and the Balearics.
Like the alliteration, if not the thought behind it.
Transport should be a pretty simple thing to roll over with minimal effort, as the consequences of not doing so are huge on both sides. But there has to be a will on the EU side for that deal to be done. Even under the worst crash-out scenario, I’d expect everyone involved to have planes back flying within a few days.
As someone else posted the consequences of British holidaymakers deserting the other off-shore islands (Balearics, Canaries) etc would be as disastrous for them as the said holidaymakers switch to them from Brighton etc was for British resorts in the 60’s. Not to mention Mr O’Leary probably arming his planes and beating up Heathrow!
I agree therefore that the Open Skies will get sorted, although I suspect 2019’s summer might be a difficult one. Personally I’ve been waiting for an excuse for going to the Algarve by train.
Long train tourneys are very cool, my wife and I plan to do the Trans-Siberian one day.
Yes, there’s whole towns in Southern Europe that live purely on the British summer holiday trade, any uncertainty about this could sink them, even if a last minute deal is done in the end. I imagine that as they wind down this year’s season in September, all their attention will be on Brussels.
Will that be a one-way ticket on the Trans-Siberian railway?
Been there, done that. Very much recommended. Go second class - fewer tourists and a better insight into Russia.
To do it properly, you should go to Moscow by train too, which is easy enough: there's a sleeper direct from Paris, although it does mean having to get a belorussian transit visa too. (This has changed since when I went, when you'd pick up the sleeper from Amsterdam at Cologne, so taking the Eurostar to Brussels and then a Thalys to Cologne).
One of the many failures of the EU is not bringing in Russia as an associate member.Russia and Europe's history says Russia is Europe and Europe is Russia.
It was a thankless task, and very difficult, which she made harder by doing poorly in a snap election of course, and it has bought her plenty of leeway I think, particularly as some are self evidently maneuvering to replace her once they can safely lump as much blame for the brexit outcome on her as they can (given the level of whinge from Boris and co, it is the only explanation for why they didn't act sooner if they are willing to leak how angry they are all the time).
But that leeway only goes so far. Disappoint everyone, sure, that is likely true when the parliament is as split as it is, but even for a shit hand she seems to have played it very poorly at every turn.
What could she have done differently which would have made any difference especially considering the EUs attitude?
It was reasonable to assume 2 years down the line that she could have at least managed to get her own Cabinet on board with something. We haven't even really had the chance to try to change the EU's attitude, successfully or not, because they are still reliant on last minute fudges just to keep Cabinet members from flouncing out. Failure to get agreement on what we'd even ask for (let alone get) means we've used up a lot of not much time.
The EU will accept nothing at the moment so to get them on side has been impossible. Who do you think could have done better?
That's the argument I would have used to defend May for not achieving something, but it avoids responsibility for the things that are within her power.
It may well not be possible to get the EU to accept something, that is outside May's control, but at least getting to a point where her own Cabinet can accept something is within her control, or should be. She should have been able to iron our the disputes in her own party by now, rather than just keep putting it off forever, so she could at least try to get EU to agree something.
The EU's intransigence may well be unreasonable, but a failure for our own Cabinet to agree an approach can hardly be laid at their door. It's rank incompetence, plain and simple, and the Tories certainly aren't getting my vote next time - it was a bloody difficult job to do even when a majority looked likely, and much harder afterwards, I think the public would understand not managing to get a lot of what we'd want, particularly if the EU played hardball and we just could not risk exiting. But not even being able to put together a list of our requests is just pathetic.
This topic is rapidly approaching the lofty status of the Tube scene in Darkest Hour...
LabourLive is at least faintly amusing. Organising a festival isn't inherently a terrible idea, particularly when it seems like there would be plenty of die hard lefty bands who would want to play at it, but seeing a party political stunt, effectively, not pay off is funny.
I must say you're the only one I've seen mention the Tube scene repeatedly though, I must keep missing it.
Mr. P, the triple approach seems really odd to me. I thought the point of hosting it in one (or occasionally two) countries was to help cut travel costs for fans. That world cup will be spread across thousands of miles. However, at least it isn't as dodgy as Russia or Abu Dhabi.
Logistically, that is going to be hell of task. Massive distances between cities and across borders.
I think it's about the same as Brazil in terms of distances, the issue will be if group games get split between Mexico and the US/Canada. Also, what happens in terms of the hosts being already qualified, seems mental to have three already qualified teams.
That is so bloody true. I recently read a highly laudatory review of the third part of a trilogy by a female writer about a fictional female writer's thoughts on the problems of existence. I didn't race to the bookshop.
Comments
Gary Smith had worked solely for Pimlico Plumbers for six years.
Despite being VAT-registered and paying self-employed tax, he was entitled to workers' rights, the court ruled.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44465639
And for that reason, it has zero chance of happening.
If you’re only working for one company, you really need to be either a franchisee (taking business risk) or an employee. In the IT industry we went through all this a decade and more ago with IR35.
I agree therefore that the Open Skies will get sorted, although I suspect 2019’s summer might be a difficult one. Personally I’ve been waiting for an excuse for going to the Algarve by train.
I also think it would concentrate minds in Ireland as to just how much sovereignty they have handed over to the EU, something the EU would be unwise to bring attention to.
In the end if the UK government says "fuck that, we'll keep out border open, you do what you want" then the onus falls on the EU and Varadkar to follow suit or stop Irish people in the North from going into the South.
Say it with a straight face!
Alastair asks the right questions and gives - to my mind - most, but not all, of the right answers.
The first point where I disagree with his analysis is where he says "If they were sure of their ground they would be acting now. Because if they were sure of their ground they could impose their will on the rest of the party."
I don't think that's true. If they were to act now, they'd paralyse the process of getting the Brexit legislation through before the Summer recess. That *might* not matter - there are other opportunities in the Autumn - but it would leave a clear gap in the process and an important step unfulfilled. The alternative, which Alastair quotes, of acting as soon as the legislation's signed off, is much cleaner. I think the error is to assume that being sure of their ground means being able to impose their will: it doesn't. There is a broad assumption that May should not fight another election as leader. For that reason, i think that whenever a VoNC is held, she'll lose; there are plenty who will vote against her for reasons other than Brexit - but they're in no hurry to do so (unlike the Brexiteers). There's a very decent chance of a challenge this summer, and the chances of her being replaced are a good deal higher than the 3/1 he quotes.
I also disagree that May could stumble on if she had well over 100 opposed to her in a VoNC. I think that would be Men In Grey Suits time and she would be expected to do the decent thing - with the threat of ministerial resignations making her position untenable if she didn't. I'd take the tipping point as around 105-120 votes against.
The final point I'd dispute is on the succession. Alastair rightly says that the consideration is two-fold: that no-one unacceptable stands a reasonable chance of winning, and that there is at least one alternative leader acceptable to a broad range of MPs. But he also says, and I agree, that JRM's star is on the wane. The chance of him making the final two is probably something that MPs could live with. On the other side of the equation, there are probably enough cabinet ministers who could do the job for a contest to be viable.
Conclusion: that there's a much better than 25% chance of a new Con leader this summer, and that if there is, the new one is almost certainly already in the cabinet.
This was great news for Liverpool though.
https://twitter.com/eurosport_uk/status/1006825336225632257?s=21
https://twitter.com/nbfootball/status/1006808880008126465?s=21
Yes, there’s whole towns in Southern Europe that live purely on the British summer holiday trade, any uncertainty about this could sink them, even if a last minute deal is done in the end. I imagine that as they wind down this year’s season in September, all their attention will be on Brussels.
Toxic and thunder.
And Bold Citrus
I own both.
They’re not expecting any of us to buy that, are they? We don’t all have your taste in clothing.
Even the French prefer English Nyetimber to Champagne in blind tastings.
It's the solution even if the DUP don't like it.
He may get workers' rights but alongside an income tax bill from HMRC.
Do the Spanish FA really want to destabilise the team on the eve of their biggest tournament?
There’s always been a huge Real/Barca fault line in the Spanish squad.
EDIT: That's it
Crash out - acceptable to perhaps 10%
extended SM/CU - reluctantly acceptable to perhaps 60%
revoke A50 - acceptable to perhaps 50%
I think the most supported idea would be exit to the EEA for 5-7 years as a long term transition. It would probably be close to the 60% figure you think would be happy to stay in the customs union and EEA.
That's why we are in such a mess.
During the referendum campaign Leave voters were told that they could "take back control" to end immigration and that there would be no consequent economic price to pay. The circle cannot be squared.
https://twitter.com/business/status/1006841391241224193?s=21
To answer your question, this article has two separate phrases I intended to remember for googling purposes. But on reflection, both are problematic. The first is "threatened women" and the second is "come at the queen". The results for either search are likely to be eyebrow-raising. Perhaps I will use Parthian after all.
To do it properly, you should go to Moscow by train too, which is easy enough: there's a sleeper direct from Paris, although it does mean having to get a belorussian transit visa too. (This has changed since when I went, when you'd pick up the sleeper from Amsterdam at Cologne, so taking the Eurostar to Brussels and then a Thalys to Cologne).
But you probably knew that.
watford30:
"It will be absolute carnage if HMG have failed in their duty to plan for a Leave result.
At which point one would expect Cameron to call a General Election to elect a more competent government."
SouthamObserver:
"The 330,000 figure has killed Remain stone dead. There is no answer. Dave and George have spent many years talking about the negatives of high levels immigration, without explaining that their entire economic and financial strategy is dependent on it. I am not sure what else they could possibly have expected. If you keep telling the voters something is bad, then you can't blame voters when they take you at your word." (May 30)
I’ve been backing Germany, France, Spain, Brazil, and Belgium, all of them at various odds since 2014.
There’s some great offers/specials/money back offers out there.
But that leeway only goes so far. Disappoint everyone, sure, that is likely true when the parliament is as split as it is, but even for a shit hand she seems to have played it very poorly at every turn.
It's very claustrophobic and smelly even in 1st class. The food is fucking rank (and I went to boarding school and was in the RN so I know rank when I gag it down) as might be expected from a Russian state directed enterprise. You'll spend the whole trip medicating yourself trying to hit the sweet spot between constipation and the runs.
Chinese trains are much nicer. The "003" train which also leaves from the Yaroslavsky station is run by Chinese Railways and is supposed to be better than the "002".
https://order-order.com/2018/06/13/festival-lover-watson-dodges-labour-live/
She is still negotiating with her own party more than 2 years since the vote.
Pyrrhus did rather well to beat the Roman in two out of three battles. Suggests to me that if Alexander had lived, Rome would've been smashed.
Sit back with the Vegan Popcorn Jezza
Change is Coming Mr Mullins
It may well not be possible to get the EU to accept something, that is outside May's control, but at least getting to a point where her own Cabinet can accept something is within her control, or should be. She should have been able to iron our the disputes in her own party by now, rather than just keep putting it off forever, so she could at least try to get EU to agree something.
The EU's intransigence may well be unreasonable, but a failure for our own Cabinet to agree an approach can hardly be laid at their door. It's rank incompetence, plain and simple, and the Tories certainly aren't getting my vote next time - it was a bloody difficult job to do even when a majority looked likely, and much harder afterwards, I think the public would understand not managing to get a lot of what we'd want, particularly if the EU played hardball and we just could not risk exiting. But not even being able to put together a list of our requests is just pathetic.
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1006825171888623618
Salvini's one of the Italian chaps, right?
I must say you're the only one I've seen mention the Tube scene repeatedly though, I must keep missing it.
https://www.ft.com/content/0d33d22c-0280-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9
https://twitter.com/fliceverett/status/1006543474852851712
Logistically, that is going to be hell of task. Massive distances between cities and across borders.