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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This looks like a spectacular bust up between the SNP and the

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Pulpstar said:

    Very poor by Australia, but another 30 runs or so and we'd have been in the shit with that chase.

    Not close in the end, but any day where Betfair covers your bar bill is a good day!
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    That Guardian Galileo article isn’t quite as advertised (surprise surprise) as the EU wants to give the UK observer status and put cooperation onto a new basis.

    Either way, it’s remarkably stupid. The UK and US collaborate far more closely on the F35, for example, as a “third country” including sharing software and security data. And even more so as part of five eyes, a collation of “third countries” that do more for mutual security than the EU’s common foreign and security policy ever has. The UK is already reaching out to Australia and it wouldn’t surprise me if a five eyes equivalent ended up being developed, entirely independent of the EU and a rival to it.

    Why would the key member of five eyes create a rival to their own system?
    Read the article: “Philip Hammond, warned that the UK would “have to go it alone, possibly with other partners outside Europe and the US, to build a third competing system”, if the EU maintained their position. It is understood that talks have opened with Australia on such a project.“

    It may or may not involve the US at some level. I’d say it probably would.
    The US has GPS, so my question stands. Why would they want to facilitate a rival to their own system?
    They may not, but they may also be happy to share security data with us to a limited extent. They already do so in a number of areas to a far greater degree.

    These things are far more flexible than you seem to think they are. China was originally an investment partner in Galileo, for example, before it decided to upgrade its own system instead.
    It maybe that they just want a backup to their own at no cost to them. So much military hardware uses GPS today including missiles that the first target of a cyber attack would be the GPS system. Having a backup to your own using different security systems may well be views as a great idea. Especially as we can tell the Yanks how to hack the EU's system. GCHQ developed the encryption.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Unless my eyes deceive me Mike doesn't use the words independent or pollster in that letter, so I don't know where they're getting their ideas.

    I like his suggestion, in effect, to Labour voters that they will be helping Labour by voting LD, as it might help change Corbyn's mind on Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    House of Commons votes down Lords Amendment to stay in the EEA

    For 327 Against 126

    Majority of 201 for the UK to Leave the Single Market
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    kjohnw said:

    Starmer says the NI amendment passed last night makes No Deal Brexit impossible, and also renders the Max Fac option "unlawful". the amendment went through on the nod at 7:15 last night.
    Is Starmer correct on this?

    If you go by his record almost certainly not
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2018
    kle4 said:

    Unless my eyes deceive me Mike doesn't use the words independent or pollster in that letter, so I don't know where they're getting their ideas.

    I like his suggestion, in effect, to Labour voters that they will be helping Labour by voting LD, as it might help change Corbyn's mind on Brexit.
    Such a London centric view. Labour really isn't worried about losing voters in Lewisham over Brexit - it's close to a one party state now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,837
    HYUFD said:

    House of Commons votes down Lords Amendment to stay in the EEA

    For 327 Against 126

    Majority of 201 for the UK to Leave the Single Market

    Well that's pretty comprehensive.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,837
    Labour says around 90 MPs rebelled over EEA - 75 for, and 15 against
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    kle4 said:

    Unless my eyes deceive me Mike doesn't use the words independent or pollster in that letter, so I don't know where they're getting their ideas.

    I like his suggestion, in effect, to Labour voters that they will be helping Labour by voting LD, as it might help change Corbyn's mind on Brexit.
    All's fair in politics and betting.... LD second nailed on?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    edited June 2018
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1006976965591609345

    Though he ignores Labour Leave rebels like Field, Hoey and Mann
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Interesting idea

    A billionaire venture capitalist's bid to split California into three separate states has earned a spot on the ballot in November's mid-term elections.

    If Tim Draper's Cal-3 initiative gets a majority vote, it would trigger a long process to split California into northern, southern and central states.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44471277
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Isabel Oakeshott is on QT tomorrow....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    HYUFD said:
    Good for him no one will notice because of all the focus to be on the government. Heck, no doubt most Lab voters who support EEA will still think Corbyn does as well tomorrow.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,751
    Alistair said:

    Reviewing my "Con next leader" book what on earth drove me to back Hammond at absolutely abysmal odds.

    There was a time when many claimed that he was the only adult in the room. Looks completely ridiculous now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Good for him no one will notice because of all the focus to be on the government. Heck, no doubt most Lab voters who support EEA will still think Corbyn does as well tomorrow.
    We will see what happens in Remain Lewisham East tomorrow but clearly he helped pass the vote the leave the EEA with a big majority
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    brendan16 said:

    kle4 said:

    Unless my eyes deceive me Mike doesn't use the words independent or pollster in that letter, so I don't know where they're getting their ideas.

    I like his suggestion, in effect, to Labour voters that they will be helping Labour by voting LD, as it might help change Corbyn's mind on Brexit.
    Such a London centric view. Labour really isn't worried about losing voters in Lewisham over Brexit - it's close to a one party state now.
    I think it already is.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Good news for Tories who dislike Anna Soubry in here:
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1006949808815443969?s=21
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    House of Commons votes down the Lords Amendment to negotiate staying in a Customs Union

    For 325 Against 298

    Majority of 27 to leave the Customs Union
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Good news for Tories who dislike Anna Soubry in here:
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1006949808815443969?s=21

    It's been a few months since we've had a 'new party' story do the rounds. I see they still haven't come up with a decent name for it yet.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,751
    HYUFD said:

    House of Commons votes down the Lords Amendment to negotiate staying in a Customs Union

    For 325 Against 298

    Majority of 27 to leave the Customs Union


    Government numbers are pretty solid in all these votes. Not really had a close one yet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,837
    Lol - Laura Smith resigned to vote AGAINST! the amendment on the EEA.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    kle4 said:

    brendan16 said:

    kle4 said:

    Unless my eyes deceive me Mike doesn't use the words independent or pollster in that letter, so I don't know where they're getting their ideas.

    I like his suggestion, in effect, to Labour voters that they will be helping Labour by voting LD, as it might help change Corbyn's mind on Brexit.
    Such a London centric view. Labour really isn't worried about losing voters in Lewisham over Brexit - it's close to a one party state now.
    I think it already is.
    God help them, then.

    We have a Labour One Party State here in Wales, and we’re the worst run country in Europe.

    For example, look at this:

    https://tinyurl.com/y97s3nb2

    “The business park has been in public ownership for over 20 years, more than £36 million has been spent on developing the site, installing infrastructure and marketing the site, yet we still do not have a single business employing local people."

    Courtesy of the Labour Welsh Government and Swansea Council.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2018
    Having these Brexit debates and votes now is perhaps good news for the LDs in Lewisham East because it probably raises the profile of the issue, even if only marginally.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Is that done for the government now? Surely the Lord's can't send this back with such comprehensive rejections of their amendments.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    brendan16 said:

    kle4 said:

    Unless my eyes deceive me Mike doesn't use the words independent or pollster in that letter, so I don't know where they're getting their ideas.

    I like his suggestion, in effect, to Labour voters that they will be helping Labour by voting LD, as it might help change Corbyn's mind on Brexit.
    Such a London centric view. Labour really isn't worried about losing voters in Lewisham over Brexit - it's close to a one party state now.
    I think it already is.
    God help them, then.

    We have a Labour One Party State here in Wales, and we’re the worst run country in Europe.

    For example, look at this:

    https://tinyurl.com/y97s3nb2

    “The business park has been in public ownership for over 20 years, more than £36 million has been spent on developing the site, installing infrastructure and marketing the site, yet we still do not have a single business employing local people."

    Courtesy of the Labour Welsh Government and Swansea Council.
    I'm told by some people I regard as sensible that Manchester is actually pretty well run despite being a one party state for a while (not quite at the moment), so it can be ok, but it worries me no matter the party.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    House of Commons votes down the Lords Amendment to negotiate staying in a Customs Union

    For 325 Against 298

    Majority of 27 to leave the Customs Union


    Government numbers are pretty solid in all these votes. Not really had a close one yet.
    Indeed, I was surprised as to how convincingly the government won tbh. I thought after yesterday's palaver it would be a lot closer with more Tory rebellions.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,837
    MaxPB said:

    Is that done for the government now? Surely the Lord's can't send this back with such comprehensive rejections of their amendments.

    The commons seems to have gone a damned sight better for the Gov't than negotiating with Barnier !
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Is that done for the government now? Surely the Lord's can't send this back with such comprehensive rejections of their amendments.

    The commons seems to have gone a damned sight better for the Gov't than negotiating with Barnier !
    Maybe why TM was so much better at PMQ's before the SNP stage managed a walk out
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    I’d vote for Caroline Flint over Anna Soubry any day of the week.

    As disappointing as it was for one of our own not to take the seat, I was quite pleased for Flint to survive as I think she's one of the better Labour MPs.
    Aaron's work in the constituency forced Caroline to really get in touch with her constituents I think.
    Agreed.
    +1

    Caroline Flint's speech was impressive.

    It shows that she gets it. And why EEA won't work. We need to leave the SM and CU.
    It was and the one straight after flint's(soubry) was just out of touch on immigration.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    So did the SNP vote on any of the motions? It doesn't look like it from the numbers.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    Spain: New minister for Culture quits after six days after being accused of tax evasion - shortest holder of a ministry ever in Spain. Says he "doesn't want to muddy the transparent waters" of the new PSOE government

    Of course PSOE don't do corruption.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,837
    edited June 2018
    MaxPB said:

    So did the SNP vote on any of the motions? It doesn't look like it from the numbers.

    For the EEA

    Labour: 74
    SNP: 32
    Lib Dem: 11
    Conservatives: 3 (Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve and Anna Soubry)
    Plaid Cymru: 4
    Independent: 2 - Sylvia Hermon and John Woodcock (suspended from Labour)
    Greens: 1
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    felix said:

    Spain: New minister for Culture quits after six days after being accused of tax evasion - shortest holder of a ministry ever in Spain. Says he "doesn't want to muddy the transparent waters" of the new PSOE government

    Of course PSOE don't do corruption.

    How long did we have David Laws as a minister? I’m sure that was a week or so too.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    House of Commons votes down the Lords Amendment to negotiate staying in a Customs Union

    For 325 Against 298

    Majority of 27 to leave the Customs Union


    Government numbers are pretty solid in all these votes. Not really had a close one yet.
    Indeed, I was surprised as to how convincingly the government won tbh. I thought after yesterday's palaver it would be a lot closer with more Tory rebellions.
    I thought all the Conservatives who threatened rebellion had been bought off by promises from Mrs May - which she does not intend to keep. The worms may yet turn.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    Good news for Tories who dislike Anna Soubry in here:
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1006949808815443969?s=21

    Back Together?

    It'll never catch on with a name like that... :D
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Yes, maybe surprising - if Con rebels are upset about what May did / did not promise yesterday, might they not have been expected to rebel on Customs Union?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2018
    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    Spain: New minister for Culture quits after six days after being accused of tax evasion - shortest holder of a ministry ever in Spain. Says he "doesn't want to muddy the transparent waters" of the new PSOE government

    Of course PSOE don't do corruption.

    How long did we have David Laws as a minister? I’m sure that was a week or so too.
    He managed a couple of weeks I think - way more. You have to serve a week to make it official!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    MaxPB said:

    Is that done for the government now? Surely the Lord's can't send this back with such comprehensive rejections of their amendments.

    We have to hope.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    So did the SNP vote on any of the motions? It doesn't look like it from the numbers.

    Of course they have, the gov would have a massive majority of they didn't.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited June 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    So did the SNP vote on any of the motions? It doesn't look like it from the numbers.

    For the EEA

    Labour: 74
    SNP: 32
    Lib Dem: 11
    Conservatives: 3 (Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve and Anna Soubry)
    Plaid Cymru: 4
    Independent: 2 - Sylvia Hermon and John Woodcock (suspended from Labour)
    Greens: 1
    So who abstained for the customs union vote? The government numbers look fairly solid, but loads are missing from the opposition benches.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    PClipp said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    House of Commons votes down the Lords Amendment to negotiate staying in a Customs Union

    For 325 Against 298

    Majority of 27 to leave the Customs Union


    Government numbers are pretty solid in all these votes. Not really had a close one yet.
    Indeed, I was surprised as to how convincingly the government won tbh. I thought after yesterday's palaver it would be a lot closer with more Tory rebellions.
    I thought all the Conservatives who threatened rebellion had been bought off by promises from Mrs May - which she does not intend to keep. The worms may yet turn.
    The promises fell apart this morning though.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    So did the SNP vote on any of the motions? It doesn't look like it from the numbers.

    Of course they have, the gov would have a massive majority of they didn't.
    Majority of 27 on the customs union, that's what made me wonder.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    GIN1138 said:

    Good news for Tories who dislike Anna Soubry in here:
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1006949808815443969?s=21

    Back Together?

    It'll never catch on with a name like that... :D
    Sounds like a boy band revival - Take that!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    felix said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Good news for Tories who dislike Anna Soubry in here:
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1006949808815443969?s=21

    Back Together?

    It'll never catch on with a name like that... :D
    Sounds like a boy band revival - Take that!
    I just want EU back for good...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,837
    Is Corbyn the first leader to have resignations from both side of the argument on a single vote ?
    Has anyone achieved that particular feat before ?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,837
    Listening to this debate you'd have thought there was a majority for staying in the single market - I'm on a slight delay and its gone from Clarke to Benn and now to Grieve !
    This bit of the debate isn't even particularly representative of parliament.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    GIN1138 said:

    Good news for Tories who dislike Anna Soubry in here:
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1006949808815443969?s=21

    Back Together?

    It'll never catch on with a name like that... :D
    I look forward to the infighting when they start arguing amongst themselves about what exactly "Back Together" involves, as I suspect that a time machine back to 2016 is not available.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Pulpstar said:

    Listening to this debate you'd have thought there was a majority for staying in the single market - I'm on a slight delay and its gone from Clarke to Benn and now to Grieve !
    This bit of the debate isn't even particularly representative of parliament.

    But Clarke and Grieve are the moderates in the Tory party, apparently.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited June 2018
    The Freedom of Movement issue cannot just be ignored in the way that some Europhiles imply. It was key to the Brexit vote two years ago - yet the political elite in all the major parties still appears seriously divorced from public opinion. I would have supported Caroline Flint et al in voting against the EEA.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Serious question. Why do Labour have so many PPS's? What do they do when you are in Opposition (other than resign)?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    Spain: New minister for Culture quits after six days after being accused of tax evasion - shortest holder of a ministry ever in Spain. Says he "doesn't want to muddy the transparent waters" of the new PSOE government

    Of course PSOE don't do corruption.

    How long did we have David Laws as a minister? I’m sure that was a week or so too.
    Wasn’t his book 9 Days in May? (Although that may have been the coalition negotiations!)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Good news for Tories who dislike Anna Soubry in here:
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1006949808815443969?s=21

    The new party is actually going to be called Big Toenails.

    You heard it here first.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    dixiedean said:

    Serious question. Why do Labour have so many PPS's? What do they do when you are in Opposition (other than resign)?

    Doesn’t every minister have a shadow? Some may be more of a non-job than others though!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    dixiedean said:

    Serious question. Why do Labour have so many PPS's? What do they do when you are in Opposition (other than resign)?

    I agree. I wasn't aware that the Opposition had PPS's - other than the Leader.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    After today does it go to being "ping pong" with the Lords?

    If I was a Lords mischief-making Remainer I'd propose an amendment that is remarkably similar to the Grieve amendment that got dropped yesterday.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    After today does it go to being "ping pong" with the Lords?

    If I was a Lords mischief-making Remainer I'd propose an amendment that is remarkably similar to the Grieve amendment that got dropped yesterday.

    Of course they will, but hopefully enough unelected crossbenchers decide they have had enough of opposing the elected house and the people's vote.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    I do not claim to be an expert but with big defeats today for joining the EEA and staying in the single market does that not strengthen Brexit for TM. How can she negotiate now a Norway deal or single market membership even if she wanted to
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,952
    glw said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Good news for Tories who dislike Anna Soubry in here:
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1006949808815443969?s=21

    Back Together?

    It'll never catch on with a name like that... :D
    I look forward to the infighting when they start arguing amongst themselves about what exactly "Back Together" involves, as I suspect that a time machine back to 2016 is not available.
    "Back Together"? More like Back Passage if you ask me....

    /RickyTomlinsonMode.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    I do not claim to be an expert but with big defeats today for joining the EEA and staying in the single market does that not strengthen Brexit for TM. How can she negotiate now a Norway deal or single market membership even if she wanted to

    If she can’t leave the single market and can’t stay in it, it increases the chances that Brexit will hit the rocks.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Latest Italian poll puts the two government parties on 58.5%:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Italian_general_election#2018
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    kle4 said:

    Interesting idea

    A billionaire venture capitalist's bid to split California into three separate states has earned a spot on the ballot in November's mid-term elections.

    If Tim Draper's Cal-3 initiative gets a majority vote, it would trigger a long process to split California into northern, southern and central states.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44471277

    6 Democrat Senators?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,952

    I do not claim to be an expert but with big defeats today for joining the EEA and staying in the single market does that not strengthen Brexit for TM. How can she negotiate now a Norway deal or single market membership even if she wanted to

    The only difference between you and most politicians in Westminster is that you do not claim to be an expert!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    Interesting idea

    A billionaire venture capitalist's bid to split California into three separate states has earned a spot on the ballot in November's mid-term elections.

    If Tim Draper's Cal-3 initiative gets a majority vote, it would trigger a long process to split California into northern, southern and central states.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44471277

    6 Democrat Senators?
    Not necessarily apparently

    California has 55 votes in the electoral college, and these have historically gone to Democratic candidates.

    That could change if Cal-3 is approved, which could leave Democratic lawmakers uneasy about allowing the change.

    Based on election data from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, Southern California could become a swing state if the change is approved.


    But I assume the whole thing was a non starter anyway.

    Be interesting to see more states though - not sure if Puerto Rico will ever be one or not.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    felix said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Good news for Tories who dislike Anna Soubry in here:
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1006949808815443969?s=21

    Back Together?

    It'll never catch on with a name like that... :D
    Sounds like a boy band revival - Take that!
    Worse, it sounds like a Burton/Taylor marriage.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    I do not claim to be an expert but with big defeats today for joining the EEA and staying in the single market does that not strengthen Brexit for TM. How can she negotiate now a Norway deal or single market membership even if she wanted to

    If she can’t leave the single market and can’t stay in it, it increases the chances that Brexit will hit the rocks.
    By that you mean no deal which will be 100% failure for everyone, not least Barnier who will go down as the man who broke the EU, with help from the absurd Juncker.

    We are not staying in the EU. Not politically possible now
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    MaxPB said:

    PClipp said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    House of Commons votes down the Lords Amendment to negotiate staying in a Customs Union

    For 325 Against 298

    Majority of 27 to leave the Customs Union


    Government numbers are pretty solid in all these votes. Not really had a close one yet.
    Indeed, I was surprised as to how convincingly the government won tbh. I thought after yesterday's palaver it would be a lot closer with more Tory rebellions.
    I thought all the Conservatives who threatened rebellion had been bought off by promises from Mrs May - which she does not intend to keep. The worms may yet turn.
    The promises fell apart this morning though.
    Conservative promises always do...
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Rather unexpectedly it looks like the voting on the EU Withdrawal Bill will leave the PM stronger and Corbyn weaker, and with the Tories looking rather more united and disciplined than Labour.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741

    I do not claim to be an expert but with big defeats today for joining the EEA and staying in the single market does that not strengthen Brexit for TM. How can she negotiate now a Norway deal or single market membership even if she wanted to

    To be fair, May has always rejected remaining in the Single Market and the Customs Union so it's only an affirmation of her view which is a reflection of Party loyalty (blind though that may be).

    Rejection of the EEA (and the size of that rejection) surprised me. The Swiss are in the EEA and operate a bilateral relationship with the EU and we could have done the same so EFTA is out as well as a consequence.

    I will have to wait until we see the detail of an A50 Agreement presented by May, Davis and Fox to the country (not that I'll get a say on it apparently) to get a sense of our future economic relationship with the EU. Some seem to think it will be a Canada Plus deal (which I thought had been discredited). It's also all very well to claim Freedom of Movement will end but it's also about what will replace it and when.

    I will have to rely (apparently) on Conservative MPs to exercise their judgement and not just act out of blind loyalty. On that basis, tonight's actions do not fill me with confidence.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Interesting idea

    A billionaire venture capitalist's bid to split California into three separate states has earned a spot on the ballot in November's mid-term elections.

    If Tim Draper's Cal-3 initiative gets a majority vote, it would trigger a long process to split California into northern, southern and central states.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44471277

    6 Democrat Senators?
    Not necessarily apparently

    California has 55 votes in the electoral college, and these have historically gone to Democratic candidates.

    That could change if Cal-3 is approved, which could leave Democratic lawmakers uneasy about allowing the change.

    Based on election data from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, Southern California could become a swing state if the change is approved.


    But I assume the whole thing was a non starter anyway.

    Be interesting to see more states though - not sure if Puerto Rico will ever be one or not.
    Sounds like you read the same article from LA Times as I did. The process, even if passed on the ballot, has to go through the CA legislature (or the State's supreme court) and then through the US Congress. As the article states, risk aversion adoption, even with a ballot victory, very unlikely.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2018

    kle4 said:

    Interesting idea

    A billionaire venture capitalist's bid to split California into three separate states has earned a spot on the ballot in November's mid-term elections.

    If Tim Draper's Cal-3 initiative gets a majority vote, it would trigger a long process to split California into northern, southern and central states.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44471277

    6 Democrat Senators?
    No. Southern California could/would easily go Republican in non-Trump times (It voted Romney in 2012).

    Draper's earlier "6 California" proposal was a naked attempt to wring Republican Electoral College and senators out of California.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    kle4 said:

    Interesting idea

    A billionaire venture capitalist's bid to split California into three separate states has earned a spot on the ballot in November's mid-term elections.

    If Tim Draper's Cal-3 initiative gets a majority vote, it would trigger a long process to split California into northern, southern and central states.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44471277

    6 Democrat Senators?
    Until Clinton's win in 1992 California usually voted Republican at Presidential elections.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    Spain: New minister for Culture quits after six days after being accused of tax evasion - shortest holder of a ministry ever in Spain. Says he "doesn't want to muddy the transparent waters" of the new PSOE government

    Of course PSOE don't do corruption.

    How long did we have David Laws as a minister? I’m sure that was a week or so too.
    Wasn’t his book 9 Days in May? (Although that may have been the coalition negotiations!)
    I looked it up, he was Chief Secretary to the Treasury for 17 days, his book was called 22 days in May, covering the period from the election to his resignation.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Laws
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741

    Rather unexpectedly it looks like the voting on the EU Withdrawal Bill will leave the PM stronger and Corbyn weaker, and with the Tories looking rather more united and disciplined than Labour.

    Hardly unexpected - we know Labour is as divided as the Conservatives but the Conservative backbenchers have been "bought off" by it appears contradictory messages from May.

    As for "united and disciplined" inasmuch as they have realised it's better to hang together than hang separately, that's true but all the last 24 hours has done has papered over the growing Conservative cracks.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Rather unexpectedly it looks like the voting on the EU Withdrawal Bill will leave the PM stronger and Corbyn weaker, and with the Tories looking rather more united and disciplined than Labour.

    Hm, not a hard feat but they definitely aren’t united. More surprised we haven’t heard anything from the DUP in recent days.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    RobD said:

    Rather unexpectedly it looks like the voting on the EU Withdrawal Bill will leave the PM stronger and Corbyn weaker, and with the Tories looking rather more united and disciplined than Labour.

    Hm, not a hard feat but they definitely aren’t united. More surprised we haven’t heard anything from the DUP in recent days.
    They don't like sharing the limelight I think, and know they have plenty of opportunities to make themselves heard yet.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    I’d vote for Caroline Flint over Anna Soubry any day of the week.

    As disappointing as it was for one of our own not to take the seat, I was quite pleased for Flint to survive as I think she's one of the better Labour MPs.
    Aaron's work in the constituency forced Caroline to really get in touch with her constituents I think.
    Agreed.
    +1

    Caroline Flint's speech was impressive.

    It shows that she gets it. And why EEA won't work. We need to leave the SM and CU.
    It was and the one straight after flint's(soubry) was just out of touch on immigration.
    Soubry's view seems to be we should let anyone who wants to come and live in the UK to do so as every single EU immigrant by definition of being an immigrant from the EU adds value, has skills and qualifications we need and will be a net contributor to society and in terms of taxes paid vs services and welfare consumed.. It is of course patent nonsense - many do many do not.

    So we end up with the patent nonsense of rejecting visas for non EU doctors while allowing in EU migrants who live on welfare or do 16 hours work a week and get paid more in tax credits and housing benefit.

    The Australian, Canadian and Kiwi approach of only allowing skilled migrants irrespective of passport and nationality who will be net contributors to society or in tax terms seems beyond her.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    I do not claim to be an expert but with big defeats today for joining the EEA and staying in the single market does that not strengthen Brexit for TM. How can she negotiate now a Norway deal or single market membership even if she wanted to

    Every speech has outlined that Brexit means brexit means leaving the SM/CU.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    kle4 said:

    Imagine being told you’re too harsh on the issue of immigration by Macron of all people.

    I hope Italian polls are just as flawed as some of the other polling we’ve been seeing in the last few years, because if we believe them then Italians are against mass immigration but are also pro Eurozone membership....how do you square that one?
    Even if was not possible to square I've long thought we always overestimate the rationality of people, even ourselves. It's one reason political parties never have as much ideological purity as they often pretend they do, because people are quite capable of very passionately holding quite contradictory ideas at the same time.
    I totally agree. I also totally disagree.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited June 2018

    kle4 said:

    Interesting idea

    A billionaire venture capitalist's bid to split California into three separate states has earned a spot on the ballot in November's mid-term elections.

    If Tim Draper's Cal-3 initiative gets a majority vote, it would trigger a long process to split California into northern, southern and central states.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44471277

    6 Democrat Senators?
    3/3 most likely (GOP gets SoCal, the Inland Empire and the Central Belt). Dems get LA, SF/Sacramento and Santa Barbara

    Free Socal from the Tyranny of the North
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    stodge said:

    I do not claim to be an expert but with big defeats today for joining the EEA and staying in the single market does that not strengthen Brexit for TM. How can she negotiate now a Norway deal or single market membership even if she wanted to

    To be fair, May has always rejected remaining in the Single Market and the Customs Union so it's only an affirmation of her view which is a reflection of Party loyalty (blind though that may be).

    Rejection of the EEA (and the size of that rejection) surprised me. The Swiss are in the EEA and operate a bilateral relationship with the EU and we could have done the same so EFTA is out as well as a consequence.

    I will have to wait until we see the detail of an A50 Agreement presented by May, Davis and Fox to the country (not that I'll get a say on it apparently) to get a sense of our future economic relationship with the EU. Some seem to think it will be a Canada Plus deal (which I thought had been discredited). It's also all very well to claim Freedom of Movement will end but it's also about what will replace it and when.

    I will have to rely (apparently) on Conservative MPs to exercise their judgement and not just act out of blind loyalty. On that basis, tonight's actions do not fill me with confidence.
    Switzerland isn't on the EEA, it's in EFTA.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Why is PB reporting on the antics of the Italian parliament?

    Oh hang on, how depressing .
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Is it too late for Labour's shambles today to lead to a Lib Dem surge tomorrow in Lewisham?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Is it too late for Labour's shambles today to lead to a Lib Dem surge tomorrow in Lewisham?

    I would assume parliamentary shenanigans rarely if ever lead to surges in by-elections, but even if it does lead to a surge it only matters for those with money on LDs in second. Which I do not unfortunately.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    After today does it go to being "ping pong" with the Lords?

    If I was a Lords mischief-making Remainer I'd propose an amendment that is remarkably similar to the Grieve amendment that got dropped yesterday.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1006973624958504960
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    I do not claim to be an expert but with big defeats today for joining the EEA and staying in the single market does that not strengthen Brexit for TM. How can she negotiate now a Norway deal or single market membership even if she wanted to

    The only difference between you and most politicians in Westminster is that you do not claim to be an expert!
    +1
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    MaxPB said:

    Switzerland isn't on the EEA, it's in EFTA.

    I stated on here before the referendum my preference was for the UK to rejoin EFTA and seek to re-invigorate that organisation as a counterbalance to the EU.

    The Swiss have a network of bilateral arrangements with the EU and I've always thought we could have something similar.

    Instead of making trite observations how about engaging in some debate for a change - would you support a Swiss-style arrangement for the UK (in EFFA, outside the EEA and with bespoke bilateral deals with the EU) ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:
    Honestly don't get what he's on about.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited June 2018
    Scott_P said:

    After today does it go to being "ping pong" with the Lords?

    If I was a Lords mischief-making Remainer I'd propose an amendment that is remarkably similar to the Grieve amendment that got dropped yesterday.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1006973624958504960
    FFS Douglas! Grow up!

    (Edit: Sarah is close to Major, so I suspect Douglas is just doing what he’s told. As usual :wink: )
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    kle4 said:

    Imagine being told you’re too harsh on the issue of immigration by Macron of all people.

    I hope Italian polls are just as flawed as some of the other polling we’ve been seeing in the last few years, because if we believe them then Italians are against mass immigration but are also pro Eurozone membership....how do you square that one?
    Even if was not possible to square I've long thought we always overestimate the rationality of people, even ourselves. It's one reason political parties never have as much ideological purity as they often pretend they do, because people are quite capable of very passionately holding quite contradictory ideas at the same time.
    I totally agree. I also totally disagree.
    Sums up Brexit
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    After today does it go to being "ping pong" with the Lords?

    If I was a Lords mischief-making Remainer I'd propose an amendment that is remarkably similar to the Grieve amendment that got dropped yesterday.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1006973624958504960
    FFS Douglas! Grow up!

    (Edit: Sarah is close to Major, so I suspect Douglas is just doing what he’s told. As usual :wink: )
    Moat man Hogg to grow up? Sounds unlikely.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706

    Is it too late for Labour's shambles today to lead to a Lib Dem surge tomorrow in Lewisham?

    I can certainly see a lot of Labour Remain voters in the more middle class areas of the seat like Blackheath switching to the LDs to protest Corbyn's failure to support staying in the EEA but the more working class Leave areas of the seat will likely stay Labour
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    Interesting documentary on BBC1 at the moment too on Putin's Russia
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    .
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    After today does it go to being "ping pong" with the Lords?

    If I was a Lords mischief-making Remainer I'd propose an amendment that is remarkably similar to the Grieve amendment that got dropped yesterday.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1006973624958504960
    FFS Douglas! Grow up!

    (Edit: Sarah is close to Major, so I suspect Douglas is just doing what he’s told. As usual :wink: )
    Moat man Hogg to grow up? Sounds unlikely.
    He never claimed expenses for the moat...
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Scott_P said:

    After today does it go to being "ping pong" with the Lords?

    If I was a Lords mischief-making Remainer I'd propose an amendment that is remarkably similar to the Grieve amendment that got dropped yesterday.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1006973624958504960
    May just needs to stack the Lords already. They are completely vandalising our constitution. The government was elected on a manifesto of CU and SM exit.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Mortimer said:


    Every speech has outlined that Brexit means brexit means leaving the SM/CU.

    Of course - while the Government has steadfastly refused to be clear about its final objectives, two have remained constant since 24/6/16 - one, Freedom of Movement has to end and two, Britain's economic independence has to be re-asserted.

    The first means we can't be part of the SM and the second means we can't be part of the CU since we wouldn't be able to negotiate bespoke trade deals with the rest of the world which is apparently something Fox is wanting to do though I'd rather trust my crown jewels to a psychopath with a rusty blade than have Fox anywhere near a trade deal.

    I'd like us in EFTA on a Swiss-style basis with bespoke bilateral arrangements with the EU but even that would give some of the pro-Brexit contingent on here a fit of the vapours.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    brendan16 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    I’d vote for Caroline Flint over Anna Soubry any day of the week.

    As disappointing as it was for one of our own not to take the seat, I was quite pleased for Flint to survive as I think she's one of the better Labour MPs.
    Aaron's work in the constituency forced Caroline to really get in touch with her constituents I think.
    Agreed.
    +1

    Caroline Flint's speech was impressive.

    It shows that she gets it. And why EEA won't work. We need to leave the SM and CU.
    It was and the one straight after flint's(soubry) was just out of touch on immigration.
    Soubry's view seems to be we should let anyone who wants to come and live in the UK to do so as every single EU immigrant by definition of being an immigrant from the EU adds value, has skills and qualifications we need and will be a net contributor to society and in terms of taxes paid vs services and welfare consumed.. It is of course patent nonsense - many do many do not.

    So we end up with the patent nonsense of rejecting visas for non EU doctors while allowing in EU migrants who live on welfare or do 16 hours work a week and get paid more in tax credits and housing benefit.

    The Australian, Canadian and Kiwi approach of only allowing skilled migrants irrespective of passport and nationality who will be net contributors to society or in tax terms seems beyond her.
    +1
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,952
    Scott_P said:

    After today does it go to being "ping pong" with the Lords?

    If I was a Lords mischief-making Remainer I'd propose an amendment that is remarkably similar to the Grieve amendment that got dropped yesterday.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1006973624958504960
    So the Lords is reduced to being "mischief makers for Remain".

    Remind me - what precisely is the case for not abolishing them?
This discussion has been closed.