Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lewisham East: Five take aways

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lewisham East: Five take aways

The result is almost exactly in line with the LDs canvas projection issued on Monday afternoon. This had LAB 49, LD 25, CON 17. https://t.co/zTGmdohYEq

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2018
    Why will it give the LD's encouragement? They probably flooded this by election.. Can't do that at GE time..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    FPT (relevant here :smiley:)

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    That's a pretty underwhelming result for Labour, embarrassing for the Conservatives, a relief for the Liberal Democrats.

    But given the numbers it's not likely to cause any upheaval. 50% was the benchmark for Corbyn and he has just managed it.
    Impressive how accurate the LibDem canvass returns were.
    "In canvassing seen by BI, the Lib Dems are set to finish second place with 25% of this vote, up 21 points on last year's election. Labour will retain the seat but with a vote share 19 points down on last year. The Tories will drop 7 points to third."
    http://uk.businessinsider.com/lib-dems-expect-strong-second-place-finish-in-lewisham-east-anti-brexit-message-may-and-corbyn-2018-6
    It was very accurate and suggests that their back office functions have recovered from their mauling three years ago - a sign of progress perhaps.

    The fact is however that it wasn't a 'strong' second but even allowing for Labour's drop in support it was a 'distant' second. They got less than half of Labour's share.

    Oh and the BBC have messed up. Their report says the Yellw vote is up 20% when it's actually up 20 points!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,840
    Good effort by the Lib Dems, both them and the Tories need to watch having avoidable by-elections quite honestly
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    FPT:

    The official announcement of a move that could see the NHS’s budget go up by around £20bn by the end of this parliament is expected within days.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/15/may-poised-to-boost-nhs-budget-by-up-to-6bn-a-year?__twitter_impression=true

    Or about £385 million a week....

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    FPT:

    The official announcement of a move that could see the NHS’s budget go up by around £20bn by the end of this parliament is expected within days.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/15/may-poised-to-boost-nhs-budget-by-up-to-6bn-a-year?__twitter_impression=true

    Or about £385 million a week....

    Yay, no more banging on about that bus. :D
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    edited June 2018

    FPT:
    The official announcement of a move that could see the NHS’s budget go up by around £20bn by the end of this parliament is expected within days.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/15/may-poised-to-boost-nhs-budget-by-up-to-6bn-a-year?__twitter_impression=true

    Or about £385 million a week....

    What Adonis now needs to do is hire a bus, paint that figure on the side of it and say 'let's give that money to the EU instead for a free trade deal.'

    After all we've been repeatedly assured this bus ad was the only reason leave won, so a reverse ferret will surely be inspired by aping their tactics.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    Why will it give the LD's encouragement? They probably flooded this by election.. Can't do that at GE time..

    Yes, they should be thoroughly discouraged by this result ;-).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited June 2018
    Fpt

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I see AC Grayling was talking bollocks on This Week last night.

    Nothing compared to the bollocks that Portillo was talking about how superior our democracy is to the Irish.

    https://twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/1007399377374048256
    Which bit of that was bollocks?
    The idea that the 2016 referendum was a superior form of democracy to that found in Denmark, France or Ireland.
    I think ours is. Our Government is steadfast in seeking to implement the result, rather than trying to re-run it to get the “right” result.

    That’s how it is in Britain.
    The argument goes that the referendum decision was made under ignorance (vs under risk or uncertainty) and that in such circumstances it is reasonable to have another vote once the nature of what we had been voting for is clarified.

    On topic

    @Torby_Fennel in the previous thread pointed out that if (IFFFFF) this is an indication of Lab Remain voters’ dissatisfaction and hence abandonment of Corbyn’s Lab over the EU then the next few months should be quite interesting within the Labour Party. If it knows what’s good for it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    One thing I'd add is that this was an uncompetitive seat, so it was 'safe' to vote Lib Dem or not bother turning out due to disgruntlement with Party X. If we get a closer seat, it'll be interesting to see if the reds rally to prevent the chairman being embarrassed, or if the yellows (or even blues, in the right seat) can get people behind them.

    Different kettle of monkeys in a blue-held seat as the Conservatives are the party of government.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Why will it give the LD's encouragement? They probably flooded this by election.. Can't do that at GE time..

    They can because they'll only be really fighting a relatively small number of seats.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Waits for LD bar chart showing MASSIVE 450% INCREASE in LD share of the vote :)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,952

    FPT:

    The official announcement of a move that could see the NHS’s budget go up by around £20bn by the end of this parliament is expected within days.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/15/may-poised-to-boost-nhs-budget-by-up-to-6bn-a-year?__twitter_impression=true

    Or about £385 million a week....

    Smart politics by May. Boris gets to deliver the bus, even if the rest of it is a softish Brexit. Doesn't hurt his continuing ambitions for the top job, but not going to be an immediate vacancy as the great bulk of the Party rallies round May.

    Be interesting to see if Dr Sarah Wollaston gets peeled away from the headcase Remainers, given she jumped ship from Brexit because of the numbers on the bus.....

    (The only really, really annoying thing is why this wasn't said a year ago, during the election campaign. As some of us were urging at the time. Tory majority nailed on....)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    I see this was a bit of a nailbiter for people with bets on turnout and share of the vote.

    Job done for Labour, lds content, tories not destroyed but presumably not happy to drop down to third.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Why will it give the LD's encouragement? They probably flooded this by election.. Can't do that at GE time..

    They can because they'll only be really fighting a relatively small number of seats.
    Well if you look at it that way I guess so, but its certainly expectation management if that's the case.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Why will it give the LD's encouragement? They probably flooded this by election.. Can't do that at GE time..

    Yes, they should be thoroughly discouraged by this result ;-).
    I think in the old days the LibDems would have run Labour much closer, and possibly taken the seat.

    First steps on the ladder, yes, but it does also show how many rungs there still are for the LibDems to climb.

    The most telling of Mike’s conclusions is “ maybe we are overstating the impact on brexit on party allegiances.”

    Remarkable, really, because both parties contain people who seem to loathe each other, but somehow the parties struggle on as viable entities.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    Sandpit said:

    Waits for LD bar chart showing MASSIVE 450% INCREASE in LD share of the vote :)

    My maths is not all it might be, but isn't it more than 450%?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    I can't see why some thought the locals might want to punish Corbyn over Brexit. No sign of it in the local elections and though some non Corbynite lefties on here seem very annoyed at his stance, and it is vague, people don't seem that bothered.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,840

    Why will it give the LD's encouragement? They probably flooded this by election.. Can't do that at GE time..

    They can because they'll only be really fighting a relatively small number of seats.
    Well done Mike, will paypalling your email address be OK for the site's winnings as per my e-mail :) ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I see AC Grayling was talking bollocks on This Week last night.

    Nothing compared to the bollocks that Portillo was talking about how superior our democracy is to the Irish.

    https://twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/1007399377374048256
    Which bit of that was bollocks?
    The idea that the 2016 referendum was a superior form of democracy to that found in Denmark, France or Ireland.
    I think ours is. Our Government is steadfast in seeking to implement the result, rather than trying to re-run it to get the “right” result.

    That’s how it is in Britain.
    The argument goes that the referendum decision was made under ignorance (vs under risk or uncertainty) and that in such circumstances it is reasonable to have another vote once the nature of what we had been voting for is clarified.

    On topic

    @Torby_Fennel in the previous thread pointed out that if (IFFFFF) this is an indication of Lab Remain voters’ dissatisfaction and hence abandonment of Corbyn’s Lab over the EU then the next few months should be quite interesting within the Labour Party. If it knows what’s good for it.
    Yes, and I think that argument is patronising bollocks.

    It’s just code for those who want a re-run because they disagree with the result.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    On the accuracy of canvass returns, one of the big advantage in canvassing for the LibDems is that, when someone says 'no', it is hugely easier to identify the voter's actual preference than it is for the Tory or Labour canvasser, for both of whom separating out LD and minor party supporters can often be difficult. In many Tory canvasser v Labour voter (or vice versa) situations the door is closing before the canvasser can pitch a suitable supplementary question

    I also get the impression that the LDs do more old style knock-on-every door canvassing, whereas the larger parties now have various ways of trying to focus on actual and potential supporters only. The latter is more time efficient but doesn't give you a representative sample to work from.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880



    Smart politics by May. Boris gets to deliver the bus, even if the rest of it is a softish Brexit. Doesn't hurt his continuing ambitions for the top job, but not going to be an immediate vacancy as the great bulk of the Party rallies round May.

    The bus bullshit absolutely has to be delivered even when the net financial impact of Brexit is massively negative. That can always be mitigated by May taking a squat and irrigating the roots of the Magic Money Tree.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    brendan16 said:

    Labour majority of 5,629 over the LDs.

    The real winner though seems to have been voter apathy.

    The great losers seem to be the Conservatives.
    It was a Labour hold?
    It also seems to be the end of the mythical "progressive alliance".
    One good thing to come from a meh by election then.

    Granted it's not my party, and I see nothing odd about a party's membership perhaps finding it easier to find common ground with specific party a rather than party b, but I dislike the term for one because progressive is ill defined, and for two because it seems presumptive, expecting a party like the lds to fall in line, when the very fact of being their own party means they should have no as automatic expectation to aid party a, even if they have no shot themselves.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    Why will it give the LD's encouragement? They probably flooded this by election.. Can't do that at GE time..

    They can because they'll only be really fighting a relatively small number of seats.
    Well done Mike, will paypalling your email address be OK for the site's winnings as per my e-mail :) ?
    Thanks. Am on a Paris bound TGV so will be able to buy a coffee
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    brendan16 said:

    Labour majority of 5,629 over the LDs.

    The real winner though seems to have been voter apathy.

    The great losers seem to be the Conservatives.
    It was a Labour hold?


    It also seems to be the end of the mythical "progressive alliance".
    RobD said:

    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    brendan16 said:

    Labour majority of 5,629 over the LDs.

    The real winner though seems to have been voter apathy.

    The great losers seem to be the Conservatives.
    It was a Labour hold?
    In terms of vote share, both Labour and Conservatives lost vote share significantly. The Conservatives also lost their previous second place. This suggests to me that the base-line of the last general election, where both Labour and Conservatives benefited from a polarisation of the vote, can now be consigned to the dustbin of history.

    It also seems to be the end of the mythical "progressive alliance".
    That, or it was a by-election.
    Spoilsport.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    ydoethur said:

    FPT:
    The official announcement of a move that could see the NHS’s budget go up by around £20bn by the end of this parliament is expected within days.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/15/may-poised-to-boost-nhs-budget-by-up-to-6bn-a-year?__twitter_impression=true

    Or about £385 million a week....

    What Adonis now needs to do is hire a bus, paint that figure on the side of it and say 'let's give that money to the EU instead for a free trade deal.'

    After all we've been repeatedly assured this bus ad was the only reason leave won, so a reverse ferret will surely be inspired by aping their tactics.
    That is beautiful :)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,952
    Young People's Party got 18 votes.

    Doing nothing to dispel the notion that the young can't be arsed with politics....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729

    Pulpstar said:

    Why will it give the LD's encouragement? They probably flooded this by election.. Can't do that at GE time..

    They can because they'll only be really fighting a relatively small number of seats.
    Well done Mike, will paypalling your email address be OK for the site's winnings as per my e-mail :) ?
    Thanks. Am on a Paris bound TGV so will be able to buy a coffee
    Wow. Must have been quite a large bet!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    FPT:

    The official announcement of a move that could see the NHS’s budget go up by around £20bn by the end of this parliament is expected within days.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/15/may-poised-to-boost-nhs-budget-by-up-to-6bn-a-year?__twitter_impression=true

    Or about £385 million a week....

    I know politics meant austerity was dying anyway, but where's the money for that coming from?

    Everyone watch out for Labour saying it's too late, only done because of their pressure, and they would put yet more in above this anyway.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I see AC Grayling was talking bollocks on This Week last night.

    Nothing compared to the bollocks that Portillo was talking about how superior our democracy is to the Irish.

    https://twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/1007399377374048256
    Which bit of that was bollocks?
    The idea that the 2016 referendum was a superior form of democracy to that found in Denmark, France or Ireland.
    I think ours is. Our Government is steadfast in seeking to implement the result, rather than trying to re-run it to get the “right” result.

    That’s how it is in Britain.
    The argument goes that the referendum decision was made under ignorance (vs under risk or uncertainty) and that in such circumstances it is reasonable to have another vote once the nature of what we had been voting for is clarified.

    On topic

    @Torby_Fennel in the previous thread pointed out that if (IFFFFF) this is an indication of Lab Remain voters’ dissatisfaction and hence abandonment of Corbyn’s Lab over the EU then the next few months should be quite interesting within the Labour Party. If it knows what’s good for it.
    Yes, and I think that argument is patronising bollocks.

    It’s just code for those who want a re-run because they disagree with the result.
    Yeah there is the academic version of decision making under ignorance and then there is just ignorance, which your post displays.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited June 2018

    Why will it give the LD's encouragement? They probably flooded this by election.. Can't do that at GE time..

    They can because they'll only be really fighting a relatively small number of seats.
    Almost, but not quite. It is always more difficult to get people to travel during a GE than to a high profile by-election, and of course during a GE many activists are paper candidates; even for the most committed to the targeting strategy, being a candidate generally involves a degree of local activity, such as turning up to any hustings meeting and interviews with the local papers etc. And there will be potential council candidates and others who simply want to do something in their local area.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    RobD said:

    FPT:

    The official announcement of a move that could see the NHS’s budget go up by around £20bn by the end of this parliament is expected within days.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/15/may-poised-to-boost-nhs-budget-by-up-to-6bn-a-year?__twitter_impression=true

    Or about £385 million a week....

    Yay, no more banging on about that bus. :D
    It will have been delivered at the wrong time! It won't have been adjusted for inflation. Labour would have increased NHS spending anyway o in fact it is a cut. There I can think of a few arguments that politicians like
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    FPT:

    The official announcement of a move that could see the NHS’s budget go up by around £20bn by the end of this parliament is expected within days.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/15/may-poised-to-boost-nhs-budget-by-up-to-6bn-a-year?__twitter_impression=true

    Or about £385 million a week....

    Smart politics by May.
    Not something one reads every day....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2018

    Why will it give the LD's encouragement? They probably flooded this by election.. Can't do that at GE time..

    It's a big rise in a vote, with improvement in position - it's enough to rally the troops a bit even if not reasonably or realistically replicable across the country.

    When you hang around in the single digits nationally what counts as an encouraging sign is proportionate to that position.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Merkel still wobbling this morning. Press roundups asking how much longer she has got.
    While we view everything from the Brexit bubble, Europe is changing before us.

    Time to Remain and shape this continent! :-)

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article177597466/Presseschau-zum-Asylstreit-Angela-Merkels-Macht-existiert-derzeit-nur-noch-auf-dem-Papier.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    kle4 said:

    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    brendan16 said:

    Labour majority of 5,629 over the LDs.

    The real winner though seems to have been voter apathy.

    The great losers seem to be the Conservatives.
    It was a Labour hold?
    It also seems to be the end of the mythical "progressive alliance".
    One good thing to come from a meh by election then.

    Granted it's not my party, and I see nothing odd about a party's membership perhaps finding it easier to find common ground with specific party a rather than party b, but I dislike the term for one because progressive is ill defined, and for two because it seems presumptive, expecting a party like the lds to fall in line, when the very fact of being their own party means they should have no as automatic expectation to aid party a, even if they have no shot themselves.
    And, of course, the Labour Party isn't progressive. You might think it should be progressive, but it isn't in practice, and contains within it some of the more regressive tendencies in politics.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Young People's Party got 18 votes.

    Doing nothing to dispel the notion that the young can't be arsed with politics....

    Or that they can be relied upon not to vote for small irrelevant parties?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,840

    Young People's Party got 18 votes.

    Doing nothing to dispel the notion that the young can't be arsed with politics....

    https://twitter.com/YPPUK/status/1007391305264181249
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited June 2018
    Dreadful result for Labour particularly in a seat like Lewisham. Probably terminal for Corbyn's chances of being other than an also ran.

    If you are a Remainer who would you vote for out of Labour or Tory? Until last week there was sufficient ambiguity to go for Labour. Now I can't see any and it looks like the voters of Lewisham agree. They have tossed away their priceless USP

    I heard John McDonnell saying how difficult it was for Labour to ride two horses without bifurcating itself. For once he was correct and now they're well and truly bifurcated.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Roger said:

    Dreadful result for Labour particularly in a seat like Lewisham. Probably terminal for Corbyn's chances of being other than an also ran.

    If you are a Remainer who would you vote for out of Labour or Tory? Until last week there was sufficient ambiguity to go for Labour. Now I can't see any and it looks like the voters of Lewisham agree. They have tossed away their priceless USP

    I heard John McDonnell saying how difficult it was for Labour to ride two horses without bifurcating itself. For once he was correct and now they're well and truly bifurcated.

    you could always vote Sinn Fein
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    Pulpstar said:

    Young People's Party got 18 votes.

    Doing nothing to dispel the notion that the young can't be arsed with politics....

    https://twitter.com/YPPUK/status/1007391305264181249
    A sign perhaps that young people have no luck at all with our current politics?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    BBC report on Merkel says her CSU agitator is probably grandstanding, so I assume she'll come up with some fudged words over migration and it'll blow over for now?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited June 2018
    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    Dreadful result for Labour particularly in a seat like Lewisham. Probably terminal for Corbyn's chances of being other than an also ran.

    If you are a Remainer who would you vote for out of Labour or Tory? Until last week there was sufficient ambiguity to go for Labour. Now I can't see any and it looks like the voters of Lewisham agree. They have tossed away their priceless USP

    I heard John McDonnell saying how difficult it was for Labour to ride two horses without bifurcating itself. For once he was correct and now they're well and truly bifurcated.

    you could always vote Sinn Fein
    At least you know what they stand for. Labour have just lost over half their voters at a time when the Tories look less attractive than Aids.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    FPT:

    The official announcement of a move that could see the NHS’s budget go up by around £20bn by the end of this parliament is expected within days.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/15/may-poised-to-boost-nhs-budget-by-up-to-6bn-a-year?__twitter_impression=true

    Or about £385 million a week....

    The only really, really annoying thing is why this wasn't said a year ago, during the election campaign. As some of us were urging at the time.
    This was such an annoyance during that election, Labour announce the people's fantasy manifesto giving away free owls etc, and the Tories could have done something like this at the time. It was basic politics. Just think with that and not addressing social care she would have probably increased her majority by a handful! What blissful times we would have had without the parlous nature of the current Goverment!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Young People's Party got 18 votes.

    Doing nothing to dispel the notion that the young can't be arsed with politics....

    Or that they can be relied upon not to vote for small irrelevant parties?
    Seems likely.

    I certainly wouldn't want to discourage anyone from starting a new party, or denigrate their effort, but it must be dispiriting even for a new, small party to get so few votes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Glad I didn’t stay up for this. Had to sweat the 50-60% for Labour a bit more than I expected to be honest. The Lib Dem’s did well but the reality was that they never had a chance. With that in mind what do they get out of such a massive effort?

    I would say a few things.
    Firstly, fighting campaigns is like any other form of exercise. You get fitter and better at it. Your activists learn from those more experienced and, hopefully, catch the bug. Having activists in London is never going to go to waste.

    Secondly, it gets the Lib Dem’s noticed again, even briefly. They have found that really hard in this Parliament with small numbers and a less than charismatic leader. If they are going to make a recovery they need to take every opportunity to increase their profile.

    Thirdly, it suggests to me that there is still votes in their strongly pro EU positioning. Not overwhelming numbers but votes none the less. As Brexit becomes a slightly boring reality this may diminish but it is likely to be a useful factor at the next GE, if not the one after.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    TOPPING said:

    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls

    I thought Galileo hadn't been finished - and without our input, probably never will be?
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    FPT:

    The official announcement of a move that could see the NHS’s budget go up by around £20bn by the end of this parliament is expected within days.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/15/may-poised-to-boost-nhs-budget-by-up-to-6bn-a-year?__twitter_impression=true

    Or about £385 million a week....

    This is even before stopping the payments to the EU. So it had nothing to do with the EU before. The Tory scrooge did not want to fund the NHS, simple.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls

    I thought Galileo hadn't been finished - and without our input, probably never will be?
    No idea but if so why are we so keen to be a part of it?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    kle4 said:

    BBC report on Merkel says her CSU agitator is probably grandstanding, so I assume she'll come up with some fudged words over migration and it'll blow over for now?

    Hard to know.

    I think the beeb is downplaying the problems the CSU boss Seehofer is having with his party. Bavaria has borne the brunt of the Merkel created asylum crisis and the CSU is watching its support drift away to the AfD. Seehofer's job is on the line and he has very little room for manoeuvre. Merkel has rejected every proposed compromise. Over the border the Austrians are telling the CSU to push a hard line on immigration much as they are doing, so Seehofer is between a rock and a hard place.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    TOPPING said:

    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls

    3.5 - plenty of people who didn't fund the library can be members of a library, so it might be they are arguing they are off the library funding committee but could still ask to be a member
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    TOPPING said:

    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls

    More like a member who soiled themselves and after a hastily arranged meeting of the committee it was decided to blackball them.

    Klee?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,840
    Roger said:

    Dreadful result for Labour particularly in a seat like Lewisham. Probably terminal for Corbyn's chances of being other than an also ran.

    If you are a Remainer who would you vote for out of Labour or Tory? Until last week there was sufficient ambiguity to go for Labour. Now I can't see any and it looks like the voters of Lewisham agree. They have tossed away their priceless USP

    I heard John McDonnell saying how difficult it was for Labour to ride two horses without bifurcating itself. For once he was correct and now they're well and truly bifurcated.

    I think your take away is correct, the result is worse for Labour than the Tories.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    +1 to Mike's fair analysis.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Topping, there was a post yesterday indicating that members of the Galileo project include non-EU nations and that some EU nations are not members, suggesting cutting the UK out to be about political dickery rather than a sensible approach to a multilateral scientific collaboration.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls

    3.5 - plenty of people who didn't fund the library can be members of a library, so it might be they are arguing they are off the library funding committee but could still ask to be a member
    Our issue is full access. Plenty of third countries have partial access.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls

    More like a member who soiled themselves and after a hastily arranged meeting of the committee it was decided to blackball them.

    Klee?
    3.0. Well it is how they appear to see it, though we might say it is self defeating and unnecessary to blackball a useful partner even if they got drunk and soiled themselves outside of the committee.

    It might be more like someone stubbornly refusing assistance from someone they don't like, perhaps with good reason, even though it will get the job done better and faster.

    We might be shooting ourselves in the foot but there's no need for them to trip over their own feet into a river from laughter.

    But enough levuty, it's off to work time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls

    3.5 - plenty of people who didn't fund the library can be members of a library, so it might be they are arguing they are off the library funding committee but could still ask to be a member
    Our issue is full access. Plenty of third countries have partial access.
    Plenty of clubs have tiered memberships with different perks. All or nothing is not always a sensible approach. We want amazon prime not just amazon.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Can't see what s very distant second does for the Lib Dems . A waste of resources.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    edited June 2018
    Very good summary from OGH. Clearly it was an excellent result for the LDs and their canvass returns proved spot on too. Indeed the +20% they got in Lewisham East was about the same as the +23% they got in Witney and not far off the +30% they got in Richmond Park in the two other by elections in Remain seats since the EU referendum.

    Labour on -17% though saw an even bigger decline than the -15% the Tories saw in Witney and the -13% Zac Goldsmith saw in Richmond Park. The Tories were clearly squeezed in Lewisham and down 8% which was worse than the 2% Labour fall in Witney and actually about the same as the -8.6% Labour decline in Richmond Park (though the Tories got a higher absolute number of votes in Lewisham East than Labour did then)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    kle4 said:

    BBC report on Merkel says her CSU agitator is probably grandstanding, so I assume she'll come up with some fudged words over migration and it'll blow over for now?

    Hard to know.

    I think the beeb is downplaying the problems the CSU boss Seehofer is having with his party. Bavaria has borne the brunt of the Merkel created asylum crisis and the CSU is watching its support drift away to the AfD. Seehofer's job is on the line and he has very little room for manoeuvre. Merkel has rejected every proposed compromise. Over the border the Austrians are telling the CSU to push a hard line on immigration much as they are doing, so Seehofer is between a rock and a hard place.
    You will obviously be reading more widely than me but it does seem that this is an issue that could drive a serious wedge between the CDU and the CSU. Under Merkel the CDU has consistently been more centrist than the CSU. Merkel seems perfectly comfortable with a grand coalition, for example. The CSU’s threat is more to the right than the left and there is only so much of that they can take without sustaining damage. In contrast Merkel has been feeding off an historically weak SDP and doing well by being more centrist.

    As in this country Immigration is the sort of visceral issue that can blow this apart. There may be some grandstanding but this coalition is under more strain than it has been for decades.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    TOPPING said:



    On topic

    @Torby_Fennel in the previous thread pointed out that if (IFFFFF) this is an indication of Lab Remain voters’ dissatisfaction and hence abandonment of Corbyn’s Lab over the EU then the next few months should be quite interesting within the Labour Party. If it knows what’s good for it.

    Yes, I said it with a bit of the spirit of mischief... I certainly don't think we Lib Dems can get such a good result in every Remain area (and make no mistake - a 19% swing from the so-called main opposition party to us is a good result). However, I do think that Lewisham East indicates to us what the lowest hanging electoral fruit is for us is as we seek to advance - it's Labour Remainers for sure.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    TOPPING said:

    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls

    Or the other way of looking at it is if your were a partner in a business, when you leave that business you would expect your share back, or the other partners to buy you out....

    So basically similies like the above can just be spun however you like, so it's pointless.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    edited June 2018
    O/T

    Guido has a rather amusing article on the number of tickets for Labour live that have been given to Trotsky, Tony Blair etc.

    Oh yes and Matt's cartoon is priceless today
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls

    I thought Galileo hadn't been finished - and without our input, probably never will be?
    No idea but if so why are we so keen to be a part of it?
    YDoethur is right, the Chinese pulled out because it looked like a typical EU White Elephant.

    However, White Elephants need food, and there is money to be made in the feeding.

    So naturally enough, there are people anxious to ensure feeding time continues.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,182
    Roger said:

    Dreadful result for Labour particularly in a seat like Lewisham. Probably terminal for Corbyn's chances of being other than an also ran.

    If you are a Remainer who would you vote for out of Labour or Tory? Until last week there was sufficient ambiguity to go for Labour. Now I can't see any and it looks like the voters of Lewisham agree. They have tossed away their priceless USP

    I heard John McDonnell saying how difficult it was for Labour to ride two horses without bifurcating itself. For once he was correct and now they're well and truly bifurcated.

    Brexit is as difficult for Labour as it is for the Tories. Labour's voters are mainly rmeainers, but many of the voters Labour needs to form a government in Nuneaton and Stoke and so on are leavers. A Remain position would reinforce the 'core vote' position. Whichever party you are, whatever position you take, some of the voters you want are going to be unhappy. Whichever party you are, you can go for one end or the other of the spectrum (and Brexit is a spectrum) or somewhere in the middle, but some will always be dissatisfied. Even for the Lib Dems this is problematic - their position is the most unambiguous of the three, and is attracting young urban voters, but alienating many othe voters they need in e.g. the south west. It's a problem for everyone and I'm not sure Labour's approach is any less bad than any of its alternatives.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Young People's Party got 18 votes.

    Doing nothing to dispel the notion that the young can't be arsed with politics....

    https://twitter.com/YPPUK/status/1007391305264181249
    A sign perhaps that young people have no luck at all with our current politics?
    Pretty sure that Leicester Sq ain't nowhere near Lewisham.... so not sure they were trying that hard inthe first place.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Jonathan, handy boost for morale, I'd've thought. In a future contest where the yellows have a chance, this sort of performance will prove useful for encouraging the troops.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Concentrating on football matters yesterday, I lost track of the goings-on in the school playground.

    I heard the Remainers chortling with glee about doing over David Davis et al. Yet now it appears they're outraged about being conned themselves. Who's been done up like a kipper now? The Kippers or the Remainers?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Young People's Party got 18 votes.

    Doing nothing to dispel the notion that the young can't be arsed with politics....

    https://twitter.com/YPPUK/status/1007391305264181249
    A sign perhaps that young people have no luck at all with our current politics?
    Hmm. At what point are you “old”? 40?30?25?

    I can understand that a 95 yr old could vote for them ,or even stand of course, but standing as a candidate might prove tricky in practice if you’re past the first flush.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    I wish Peston would make up his mind. Yesterday the story was that it was May who had misled the remainers.

    The fact that at least one of the remainers is now blaming DD just might be indicative of the reality that the votes this week have considerably strengthened May’s position. She has got her way and with a fair degree of comfort. It’s on to the Heads of State summit now.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls

    3.5 - plenty of people who didn't fund the library can be members of a library, so it might be they are arguing they are off the library funding committee but could still ask to be a member
    As can the UK in terms of access to Galileo. I think the library analogy is a good one because -this is the key thing - the rules for full membership and external access were setup at the time of founding. The UK helped draft those rules. The rest of the committee don't see a reason to change them as a special case for an ex member. Which is pretty much an analogy for the whole of Brexit.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    Jonathan said:

    Can't see what s very distant second does for the Lib Dems . A waste of resources.

    Oh come on... It establishes us as the clear challenger in the seat. Oh, and fighting against Labour is never a waste of resources - your sense of entitlement is very much on show today.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls

    3.5 - plenty of people who didn't fund the library can be members of a library, so it might be they are arguing they are off the library funding committee but could still ask to be a member
    Our issue is full access. Plenty of third countries have partial access.
    Plenty of clubs have tiered memberships with different perks. All or nothing is not always a sensible approach. We want amazon prime not just amazon.
    Amazon is a commercial service, not a membership club.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    BBC report on Merkel says her CSU agitator is probably grandstanding, so I assume she'll come up with some fudged words over migration and it'll blow over for now?

    Hard to know.

    I think the beeb is downplaying the problems the CSU boss Seehofer is having with his party. Bavaria has borne the brunt of the Merkel created asylum crisis and the CSU is watching its support drift away to the AfD. Seehofer's job is on the line and he has very little room for manoeuvre. Merkel has rejected every proposed compromise. Over the border the Austrians are telling the CSU to push a hard line on immigration much as they are doing, so Seehofer is between a rock and a hard place.
    You will obviously be reading more widely than me but it does seem that this is an issue that could drive a serious wedge between the CDU and the CSU. Under Merkel the CDU has consistently been more centrist than the CSU. Merkel seems perfectly comfortable with a grand coalition, for example. The CSU’s threat is more to the right than the left and there is only so much of that they can take without sustaining damage. In contrast Merkel has been feeding off an historically weak SDP and doing well by being more centrist.

    As in this country Immigration is the sort of visceral issue that can blow this apart. There may be some grandstanding but this coalition is under more strain than it has been for decades.
    Merkel is currently having a hellish fourth term with everything going wrong at the same time.

    duff election
    weak coalition
    Europe = Italy, Austria, Brexit,
    Immigration crises - bribes, integration, AfD, CSU
    Diesel scandal -Daimler were forced to recall 772,00 cars last week
    Trump

    and now just possibly the economy is about to slow down

    There's also the Susanna F affair - young girl murdered by an Iraqi migrant and authorities let him fly home - which gets no reporting here but has filled the German media for the last couple of weeks. English summary below but cant find any article in UK press.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/community-shocked-aghast-after-german-jewish-teen-found-raped-murdered/

    It all gives the impression Merkel is losing her grip. As Ive said before who goes first Merkel or May is a fun bet.

    If Germany go out in the first round of the World Cup she's toast :-)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Can't see what s very distant second does for the Lib Dems . A waste of resources.

    Oh come on... It establishes us as the clear challenger in the seat. Oh, and fighting against Labour is never a waste of resources - your sense of entitlement is very much on show today.
    No entitlement . Just reality. Can't see how this gets you any closer to actually winning a seat.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    BBC report on Merkel says her CSU agitator is probably grandstanding, so I assume she'll come up with some fudged words over migration and it'll blow over for now?

    Hard to know.

    I think the beeb is downplaying the problems the CSU boss Seehofer is having with his party. Bavaria has borne the brunt of the Merkel created asylum crisis and the CSU is watching its support drift away to the AfD. Seehofer's job is on the line and he has very little room for manoeuvre. Merkel has rejected every proposed compromise. Over the border the Austrians are telling the CSU to push a hard line on immigration much as they are doing, so Seehofer is between a rock and a hard place.
    You will obviously be reading more widely than me but it does seem that this is an issue that could drive a serious wedge between the CDU and the CSU. Under Merkel the CDU has consistently been more centrist than the CSU. Merkel seems perfectly comfortable with a grand coalition, for example. The CSU’s threat is more to the right than the left and there is only so much of that they can take without sustaining damage. In contrast Merkel has been feeding off an historically weak SDP and doing well by being more centrist.

    As in this country Immigration is the sort of visceral issue that can blow this apart. There may be some grandstanding but this coalition is under more strain than it has been for decades.
    Merkel is currently having a hellish fourth term with everything going wrong at the same time.

    duff election
    weak coalition
    Europe = Italy, Austria, Brexit,
    Immigration crises - bribes, integration, AfD, CSU
    Diesel scandal -Daimler were forced to recall 772,00 cars last week
    Trump

    and now just possibly the economy is about to slow down

    There's also the Susanna F affair - young girl murdered by an Iraqi migrant and authorities let him fly home - which gets no reporting here but has filled the German media for the last couple of weeks. English summary below but cant find any article in UK press.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/community-shocked-aghast-after-german-jewish-teen-found-raped-murdered/

    It all gives the impression Merkel is losing her grip. As Ive said before who goes first Merkel or May is a fun bet.

    If Germany go out in the first round of the World Cup she's toast :-)
    Ah but they will probably at least make the final again. They usually do.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Blue_rog said:

    O/T

    Guido has a rather amusing article on the number of tickets for Labour live that have been given to Trotsky, Tony Blair etc.

    Oh yes and Matt's cartoon is priceless today

    My Facebook feed has been full of Labour Live. Apparently some people called "Clean Bandit" are going to be performing.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited June 2018
    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    Dreadful result for Labour particularly in a seat like Lewisham. Probably terminal for Corbyn's chances of being other than an also ran.

    If you are a Remainer who would you vote for out of Labour or Tory? Until last week there was sufficient ambiguity to go for Labour. Now I can't see any and it looks like the voters of Lewisham agree. They have tossed away their priceless USP

    I heard John McDonnell saying how difficult it was for Labour to ride two horses without bifurcating itself. For once he was correct and now they're well and truly bifurcated.

    Brexit is as difficult for Labour as it is for the Tories. Labour's voters are mainly rmeainers, but many of the voters Labour needs to form a government in Nuneaton and Stoke and so on are leavers. A Remain position would reinforce the 'core vote' position. Whichever party you are, whatever position you take, some of the voters you want are going to be unhappy. Whichever party you are, you can go for one end or the other of the spectrum (and Brexit is a spectrum) or somewhere in the middle, but some will always be dissatisfied. Even for the Lib Dems this is problematic - their position is the most unambiguous of the three, and is attracting young urban voters, but alienating many othe voters they need in e.g. the south west. It's a problem for everyone and I'm not sure Labour's approach is any less bad than any of its alternatives.
    The point is that the USP of 'Leave' has been taken. The only votes available from the great issue of our time is from Remain supporters. What's more the demographic of Leavers-conservative older less educated-already suggest they will be on the right. Whereas the younger better educated cosmopolitan voters are more likely to be undecideds
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    BBC report on Merkel says her CSU agitator is probably grandstanding, so I assume she'll come up with some fudged words over migration and it'll blow over for now?

    Hard to know.

    I think the beeb is downplaying the problems the CSU boss Seehofer is having with his party. Bavaria has borne the brunt of the Merkel created asylum crisis and the CSU is watching its support drift away to the AfD. Seehofer's job is on the line and he has very little room for manoeuvre. Merkel has rejected every proposed compromise. Over the border the Austrians are telling the CSU to push a hard line on immigration much as they are doing, so Seehofer is between a rock and a hard place.
    You will obviously be reading more widely than me but it does seem that this is an issue that could drive a serious wedge between the CDU and the CSU. Under Merkel the CDU has consistently been more centrist than the CSU. Merkel seems perfectly comfortable with a grand coalition, for example. The CSU’s threat is more to the right than the left and there is only so much of that they can take without sustaining damage. In contrast Merkel has been feeding off an historically weak SDP and doing well by being more centrist.

    As in this country Immigration is the sort of visceral issue that can blow this apart. There may be some grandstanding but this coalition is under more strain than it has been for decades.
    Merkel is currently having a hellish fourth term with everything going wrong at the same time.

    duff election
    weak coalition
    Europe = Italy, Austria, Brexit,
    Immigration crises - bribes, integration, AfD, CSU
    Diesel scandal -Daimler were forced to recall 772,00 cars last week
    Trump

    and now just possibly the economy is about to slow down

    There's also the Susanna F affair - young girl murdered by an Iraqi migrant and authorities let him fly home - which gets no reporting here but has filled the German media for the last couple of weeks. English summary below but cant find any article in UK press.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/community-shocked-aghast-after-german-jewish-teen-found-raped-murdered/

    It all gives the impression Merkel is losing her grip. As Ive said before who goes first Merkel or May is a fun bet.

    If Germany go out in the first round of the World Cup she's toast :-)
    Ah but they will probably at least make the final again. They usually do.
    Of course, but no doubt you'll be hoping the meet Iceland in the final :-)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls

    Or the other way of looking at it is if your were a partner in a business, when you leave that business you would expect your share back, or the other partners to buy you out....

    So basically similies like the above can just be spun however you like, so it's pointless.
    Oh it's a simile now is it?

    Well in yours, I think you'll find that it all depends on what was in the partnership agreement. If it said if you leave and get zilch, then zilch you get. The EU would be treating us like a Third Country as per, er, the agreement.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls

    3.5 - plenty of people who didn't fund the library can be members of a library, so it might be they are arguing they are off the library funding committee but could still ask to be a member
    Our issue is full access. Plenty of third countries have partial access.
    Plenty of clubs have tiered memberships with different perks. All or nothing is not always a sensible approach. We want amazon prime not just amazon.
    Isn't it the UK that wants all or nothing?
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    edited June 2018
    Jonathan said:



    No entitlement . Just reality. Can't see how this gets you any closer to actually winning a seat.

    You can't see how us closing a 64 point gap down to a 25 point gap gets us any closer??? OK... It's a view I suppose. LOL

    I'll try again...

    Before yesterday we needed a 32 point swing to take the seat. Now we only need a 13 point swing to take it. By any objective measure we've got closer.


  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Roger said:

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    Dreadful result for Labour particularly in a seat like Lewisham. Probably terminal for Corbyn's chances of being other than an also ran.

    If you are a Remainer who would you vote for out of Labour or Tory? Until last week there was sufficient ambiguity to go for Labour. Now I can't see any and it looks like the voters of Lewisham agree. They have tossed away their priceless USP

    I heard John McDonnell saying how difficult it was for Labour to ride two horses without bifurcating itself. For once he was correct and now they're well and truly bifurcated.

    Brexit is as difficult for Labour as it is for the Tories. Labour's voters are mainly rmeainers, but many of the voters Labour needs to form a government in Nuneaton and Stoke and so on are leavers. A Remain position would reinforce the 'core vote' position. Whichever party you are, whatever position you take, some of the voters you want are going to be unhappy. Whichever party you are, you can go for one end or the other of the spectrum (and Brexit is a spectrum) or somewhere in the middle, but some will always be dissatisfied. Even for the Lib Dems this is problematic - their position is the most unambiguous of the three, and is attracting young urban voters, but alienating many othe voters they need in e.g. the south west. It's a problem for everyone and I'm not sure Labour's approach is any less bad than any of its alternatives.
    The point is that the USP of 'Leave' has been taken. The only votes available from the great issue of our time is from Remain supporters. What's more the demographic of Leavers-conservative older less educated-already suggest they will be on the right. Whereas the younger better educated cosmopolitan voters are more likely to be undecideds
    it's your big chance Roger

    IQs have been dropping since 1975, the young and gullible vote is up for grabs !!!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Jonathan said:



    No entitlement . Just reality. Can't see how this gets you any closer to actually winning a seat.

    You can't see how us closing a 64 point gap down to a 25 point gap gets us any closer??? OK... It's a view I suppose. LOL

    I'll try again...

    Before yesterday we needed a 32 point swing to take the seat. Now we only need a 13 point swing to take it. By any objective measure we've got closer.


    Without UKIP (or with UKIP in an inner London seat), the LDs might have gone back to being the NOTA party of choice.

    And you know where that got you last time, don't you. That's right - into government.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls

    I thought Galileo hadn't been finished - and without our input, probably never will be?
    At a certain point the extra satellites and ground stations are for better accuracy and resilience. I understand the system is usable now and is expected to be complete in 2020. The current row is that the UK threatened to veto the next development stage through its membership of the European Space Agency , which is a non EU organisation and lead contractor for Galileo. The EU changed the contractual arrangement so the decision would be made entirely in the EU where no veto applies.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    ' The LD canvas projection yet again proved to be remarkably predictive '

    How do we know that it was the real canvass return and not expectations management ?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    edited June 2018
    It appears that Mrs Soubry is another victim of the 'Made Mad By Brexit' disease, seemingly only a hair's breadth away from a complete meltdown. Should we blame the stress of representing Broxtowe? But the previous representative still seems sane, if misguided.

    Is it having a law degree? Are these poor people naturally susceptible? Should they all receive prophylactic counselling? Ken still appears logical but is he merely hiding it well? Is there any cure?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    ' Former tennis champion Boris Becker is claiming diplomatic immunity against an attempt to sue him.

    The three-time Wimbledon winner claims his appointment as a diplomat by the Central African Republic affords him protection from any legal claims.

    Mr Becker was declared bankrupt in 2017 over money owed to private bank Arbuthnot Latham. He is now being pursued for "further assets".

    His defence has been lodged in the High Court.

    The Central African Republic made Mr Becker a sport and culture attache to the EU in April 2018. '

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44489798
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    Jonathan said:



    No entitlement . Just reality. Can't see how this gets you any closer to actually winning a seat.

    A 19% Labour to Liberal Democrat swing is enough to take the following seats from you:

    Sheffield, Hallam
    Leeds NW
    Bermondsey & Old Southwark
    Cambridge
    Portsmouth South (from 3rd)
    Vauxhall
    Burnley (from 3rd)

    and Birmingham Yardley would be a close run thing.



  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Thousands of bank jobs lost.

    But no need to get excited as they're only prole jobs in prole towns:

    ' About 60 bank branches are closing every month with RBS shutting the most, consumer group Which? has warned.

    It found that 2,868 branches will have closed between 2015 and the end of 2018, with the number accelerating this year. '

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44483304
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls

    Or the other way of looking at it is if your were a partner in a business, when you leave that business you would expect your share back, or the other partners to buy you out....

    So basically similies like the above can just be spun however you like, so it's pointless.
    The EU would be treating us like a Third Country
    So they won’t object if we do the same on things like security, defence, intelligence and immigration, will they?
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls

    Or the other way of looking at it is if your were a partner in a business, when you leave that business you would expect your share back, or the other partners to buy you out....

    So basically similies like the above can just be spun however you like, so it's pointless.
    Oh it's a simile now is it?

    Well in yours, I think you'll find that it all depends on what was in the partnership agreement. If it said if you leave and get zilch, then zilch you get. The EU would be treating us like a Third Country as per, er, the agreement.
    Oh, silly me! Since the partnership agreement (EU treaties) contain no provisions saying that any country leaving has to pay anything to the EU, then according to you we don't have to pay the Brexit bill, right?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Jonathan said:



    No entitlement . Just reality. Can't see how this gets you any closer to actually winning a seat.

    A 19% Labour to Liberal Democrat swing is enough to take the following seats from you:

    Sheffield, Hallam
    Leeds NW
    Bermondsey & Old Southwark
    Cambridge
    Portsmouth South (from 3rd)
    Vauxhall
    Burnley (from 3rd)

    and Birmingham Yardley would be a close run thing.



    Coming close on a low turnout by-election tells us nothing.

    If you want to spend your time campaigning for a minor party, that’s clearly your choice. It’s other people’s choice to point out that this is probably a waste of your time and energy using the evidence available.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    ' The LD canvas projection yet again proved to be remarkably predictive '

    How do we know that it was the real canvass return and not expectations management ?

    In which case the LDs have become stunningly good at guessing. Unless you are suggesting some mystical process in which voters respond to their predictions in sufficient numbers to make them come true?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?

    @kle4 analogy rating pls

    Or the other way of looking at it is if your were a partner in a business, when you leave that business you would expect your share back, or the other partners to buy you out....

    So basically similies like the above can just be spun however you like, so it's pointless.
    The EU would be treating us like a Third Country
    So they won’t object if we do the same on things like security, defence, intelligence and immigration, will they?
    Don't get mad, get even. Satellite technology is well advanced in this country. Creating our own system is well within our capacity.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    I see this comment is circulating again …

    The English football team visited an orphanage in Russia yesterday. "It was heart breaking to see their little faces with no hope," said Vladimir, aged six.


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    RoyalBlue said:

    Jonathan said:



    No entitlement . Just reality. Can't see how this gets you any closer to actually winning a seat.

    A 19% Labour to Liberal Democrat swing is enough to take the following seats from you:

    Sheffield, Hallam
    Leeds NW
    Bermondsey & Old Southwark
    Cambridge
    Portsmouth South (from 3rd)
    Vauxhall
    Burnley (from 3rd)

    and Birmingham Yardley would be a close run thing.



    Coming close on a low turnout by-election tells us nothing.

    If you want to spend your time campaigning for a minor party, that’s clearly your choice. It’s other people’s choice to point out that this is probably a waste of your time and energy using the evidence available.
    The most significant practical benefit for the LDs is that, if and when a more winnable by-election comes along, the Lewisham result helps tremendously with their quickly establishing a local narrative that they could actually win.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,952

    Jonathan said:

    Can't see what s very distant second does for the Lib Dems . A waste of resources.

    Oh come on... It establishes us as the clear challenger in the seat. Oh, and fighting against Labour is never a waste of resources - your sense of entitlement is very much on show today.
    Spending money and effort to become clear challenger in never-going-to-change-hands seats is the very definition of a waste of resources.
This discussion has been closed.