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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there was a CON leadership contest tomorrow my money would

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there was a CON leadership contest tomorrow my money would go on Javid and Hunt

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  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    First?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,962
    He could be our first completely bald PM since Thatcher.

    He is definitely a closet remainer though and I think the gammon legions of the membership would sniff that out. They won't pick JRM because they might as well all get on a bus trip to that place in Belgium where people go to top themselves as do that. The single most interesting thing about Jeremy Hunt is that he looks like a cross between Bashar al-Assad and Gordon Brittas. He would be box office poison the inevitable GE that followed a May dethronement. It's a straightforward Gove v Boris death match for my money. They will strip, get oiled up and go at it like Alan Bates and Oliver Reed in Women in Love. Too close to pick a winner. Nerdy faux intellectual vs bone idle narcissist. Could go either way.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,140
    If there was a leadership election now it would be a competition for who could make the most audacious promises for what they're going to make the EU give them. Who's the most shameless contender?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2018
    Boris is out of it owing to Labour antisemitism. His Tory rivals would tour the tearooms reminding people of Boris's less fortunate pronouncements on race, and warning of social media campaigns to come. For that reason, I can't see him making the final two; indeed, I'd expect him to withdraw after a day or so, much like last time.

    Most Conservative MPs have no great ideological attachment to Brexit and I'd expect them to be looking firstly for a safe pair of hands. Obviously we do not know who will stand but if he does throw his hat in the ring, I'd want at least a saver on Philip Hammond; otherwise yes, Hunt and Javid.

    It will be ironic that after all that's been said about Brexit being about limiting immigration, the next PM will be someone who has called for more. Javid has just handed out free passes to doctors, which makes available more spaces for other skilled workers, not least in IT. If Javid can find a way to make Gareth Bale English by next week, Number 10 will assuredly be his (with Bale at number 11).
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2018
    I'd like to see Hunt as PM, if only for the fact that tim(late of this parish) would implode.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    I think a non-Cabinet member from the backbenches as just sitting in cabinet taints them in the eyes of one faction or the other....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Earthquake measured as Mexico fans jump for joy as their football team defeats Germany :

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/jun/18/mexican-fans-set-off-earthquake-sensors-celebrating-world-cup-win

    Meanwhile the British Geological Survey have declined to comment on reports that funding for extra earthquake equipment for England in the coming fortnight were rejected by its' Chief Scientist, Mr Hamish MacTavish, as "a ludicrous waste of public money that has been overwhelmingly the case since 1966."

    :sunglasses:
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    swing_voter said:

    I think a non-Cabinet member from the backbenches as just sitting in cabinet taints them in the eyes of one faction or the other....

    Assuming Theresa May steps down before the next election in 2022, which is after Brexit, then the next leader will come from inside the Cabinet because he or she will automatically become Prime Minister. Only in Opposition will the party have the luxury of a leader untested at the highest levels.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,960
    Good morning, everyone.

    That would be splendid from my betting perspective but I'm not sure they'd both make it. A big question mark is over how our departure from the EU stands at the time of said election.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    My money will be going on Gove later on today. I am not quite confident enough in my other hunch to back it. If he wins I think he'll be the big name leaver who first announces we can't actually leave.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,087
    Not sure I agree with the premise of the thread header to be honest. In what way did May's approach (which indeed is not pretty) not work last week? She won all the votes, pretty comfortably in the end. I suspect that the Lords will have regard to that although they have lost the place. I think she came out of last week stronger than she went in and the NHS promise was delivered with some new found confidence.

    However, if I am wrong in that and she is drowning, not waving, I also agree that Javid and Hunt had good weeks. Of the 2 I would say Javid had the better one. His removal of the cap on NHS employees was good politics, his desire to still attract entrepreneurs is clear and the start of an immigration policy actually focussed on what we need and the steps taken in respect of the boy needing cannabis oil were swift, decisive and welcome. Javid at the moment is showing a sure political touch which this government has often lacked.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,204
    edited June 2018
    My legendary modesty prevents me from reminding you all that I tipped/backed Hunt and Javid at 100/1 and 60/1 respectively.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,698
    Recidivist said:

    My money will be going on Gove later on today. I am not quite confident enough in my other hunch to back it. If he wins I think he'll be the big name leaver who first announces we can't actually leave.

    Are you saying that Gove will want to stay?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,204
    Gove is the first favourite in this race that I’m not laying.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,087
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Modesty prevents me from reminding you all that I tipped/backed Hunt and Javid at 100/1 and 60/1 respectively.

    You really shouldn't let that modesty and naturally retiring manner hold you back TSE.

    For me, the key to this is probably Gove. Not as the winner but who is he going to back? Javid/Gove looks an unbeatable combination but so does Hunt/Gove. Boris/Gove is probably more beatable but still very strong.

    Unfortunately, I don't think we will get a clear indication from Gove whilst May is in office. He will certainly appreciate that it would be hugely destabilising for her if he did. But it may still be worth watching his utterances for clues.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,080
    Gorgeous typo in this BBC report:

    Debit card payments more popular than cash
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44496513

    Debit card payments have overtaken cash use for the first time, new figures show, as contactless technology takes a firm hold on day-to-day spending.

    A total of 13.2 billion debt card payments were made last year, a rise of 14% on the previous year, according to banking trade body UK Finance.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,204
    edited June 2018
    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Modesty prevents me from reminding you all that I tipped/backed Hunt and Javid at 100/1 and 60/1 respectively.

    You really shouldn't let that modesty and naturally retiring manner hold you back TSE.

    For me, the key to this is probably Gove. Not as the winner but who is he going to back? Javid/Gove looks an unbeatable combination but so does Hunt/Gove. Boris/Gove is probably more beatable but still very strong.

    Unfortunately, I don't think we will get a clear indication from Gove whilst May is in office. He will certainly appreciate that it would be hugely destabilising for her if he did. But it may still be worth watching his utterances for clues.
    I’m sure George Osborne CH is working behind the scenes to ensure a Javid/Gove dream ticket.

    He’s still close to both, but generally share the Cameroon/Osborne outlook on policies/social liberalism.

    I expect they all agree that stopping Boris and JRM is essential.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Crouch and mercer in the knock outs please.

    Am I still bottom of world Cup pb ff league?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited June 2018
    Whoops...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,905
    edmundintokyo said:

    If there was a leadership election now it would be a competition for who could make the most audacious promises for what they're going to make the EU give them. Who's the most shameless contender?

    So, a bit like the referendum, then?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,087
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Modesty prevents me from reminding you all that I tipped/backed Hunt and Javid at 100/1 and 60/1 respectively.

    You really shouldn't let that modesty and naturally retiring manner hold you back TSE.

    For me, the key to this is probably Gove. Not as the winner but who is he going to back? Javid/Gove looks an unbeatable combination but so does Hunt/Gove. Boris/Gove is probably more beatable but still very strong.

    Unfortunately, I don't think we will get a clear indication from Gove whilst May is in office. He will certainly appreciate that it would be hugely destabilising for her if he did. But it may still be worth watching his utterances for clues.
    I’m sure George Osborne CH is working behind the scenes to ensure a Javid/Gove dream ticket.

    He still close to both, but generally share the Cameroon/Osborne outlook on policies/social liberalism.

    I expect they all agree that stopping Boris and JRM is essential.
    That would suit me for exactly the reasons you have indicated.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,223
    My sense is that those that recognise who Hunt and Gove are (both are still not universally known) haven’t a great opinion of either.

    That leaves Javid, so my money is currently going on him.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,087
    Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?

    What we have seen so far in this WC is that hard working, organised teams are difficult to break down. I think England will find this more difficult than many seem to think. I'm guessing 1-1.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    Bavarian voters in favour of CSU withdrawing from government if Merkel doesn't tighten asylum

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article177722256/Eskalation-in-der-Union-Buerger-in-Bayern-befuerworten-im-Asylstreit-Koalitionsbruch.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,223
    Recidivist said:

    My money will be going on Gove later on today. I am not quite confident enough in my other hunch to back it. If he wins I think he'll be the big name leaver who first announces we can't actually leave.

    Recidivist said:

    My money will be going on Gove later on today. I am not quite confident enough in my other hunch to back it. If he wins I think he'll be the big name leaver who first announces we can't actually leave.

    Why do you say that?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,960
    Mr. L, have had one eye on the football but it really isn't my sport.

    A couple of big favourites appear to have perhaps underperformed. Saw bits of Brazil being held to a draw by the Swiss, Iceland did the same to Argentina, and the Germans got beaten. (Spain drew, but perhaps against Portugal that's less surprising).

    No idea how England will do, but weight of money might make the odds on them not winning longer than they should be.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I laid Michael Gove a couple of weeks ago to a point where he’s a much less than average winner for me. I’m comfortable with that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,087
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. L, have had one eye on the football but it really isn't my sport.

    A couple of big favourites appear to have perhaps underperformed. Saw bits of Brazil being held to a draw by the Swiss, Iceland did the same to Argentina, and the Germans got beaten. (Spain drew, but perhaps against Portugal that's less surprising).

    No idea how England will do, but weight of money might make the odds on them not winning longer than they should be.

    If it took the Romans more than 15 years to beat Carthage can the England football team do it in 90 minutes?

    I agree with you about the odds being distorted.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Modesty prevents me from reminding you all that I tipped/backed Hunt and Javid at 100/1 and 60/1 respectively.

    You really shouldn't let that modesty and naturally retiring manner hold you back TSE.

    For me, the key to this is probably Gove. Not as the winner but who is he going to back? Javid/Gove looks an unbeatable combination but so does Hunt/Gove. Boris/Gove is probably more beatable but still very strong.

    Unfortunately, I don't think we will get a clear indication from Gove whilst May is in office. He will certainly appreciate that it would be hugely destabilising for her if he did. But it may still be worth watching his utterances for clues.
    Keep an eye on Sarah Vine's columns for clues, ITYM. Is she still in the Mail?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,962
    Morris_Dancer said:



    No idea how England will do, but weight of money might make the odds on them not winning longer than they should be.

    0-0 draw is excellent value at 8/1 I think. Both teams have only scored 8 goals in their last 8 games.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,905
    DavidL said:

    Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?

    What we have seen so far in this WC is that hard working, organised teams are difficult to break down. I think England will find this more difficult than many seem to think. I'm guessing 1-1.

    That's probably a fair guess. I think only a single European team (Germany, hah!) has lost a game so far.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,960
    Mr. Ace, interesting suggestion. Hmm.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Alison_McGovern: Hospital pass https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1008602525124055040
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1008599513135767552
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,204
    DavidL said:

    Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?

    What we have seen so far in this WC is that hard working, organised teams are difficult to break down. I think England will find this more difficult than many seem to think. I'm guessing 1-1.

    England are like they are from Carthage.

    Massively overated team that occasionally gets lucky but when they finally face decent opposition they have their testicles handed to them.

    Bring back Sven.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,204
    I’ve been laying England for every tournament since 2006.

    It is as profitable as laying the long term favourite for the Tory crown.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,087
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Modesty prevents me from reminding you all that I tipped/backed Hunt and Javid at 100/1 and 60/1 respectively.

    You really shouldn't let that modesty and naturally retiring manner hold you back TSE.

    For me, the key to this is probably Gove. Not as the winner but who is he going to back? Javid/Gove looks an unbeatable combination but so does Hunt/Gove. Boris/Gove is probably more beatable but still very strong.

    Unfortunately, I don't think we will get a clear indication from Gove whilst May is in office. He will certainly appreciate that it would be hugely destabilising for her if he did. But it may still be worth watching his utterances for clues.
    Keep an eye on Sarah Vine's columns for clues, ITYM. Is she still in the Mail?
    Indeed. In this combination of aimless wittering and straw men we find a comment that Boris might well be right that the Donald would be making a better fist of Brexit. A clue?
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-5837453/Judge-merit-not-colour-sexuality-says-SARAH-VINE.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    England are like they are from Carthage.

    Massively overated team that occasionally gets lucky but when they finally face decent opposition they have their testicles handed to them.

    Bring back Sven.

    Who gets sacked first?

    Jones or Southgate?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    Scott_P said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    England are like they are from Carthage.

    Massively overated team that occasionally gets lucky but when they finally face decent opposition they have their testicles handed to them.

    Bring back Sven.

    Who gets sacked first?

    Jones or Southgate?
    Merkel
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?

    What we have seen so far in this WC is that hard working, organised teams are difficult to break down. I think England will find this more difficult than many seem to think. I'm guessing 1-1.

    England are like they are from Carthage.

    Massively overated team that occasionally gets lucky but when they finally face decent opposition they have their testicles handed to them.

    Bring back Sven.
    Thought Sven got given a hard time, I enjoyed making the quarters, top 8 is pretty good. Would love to win it but I was happy enough with that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,220
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My legendary modesty prevents me from reminding you all that I tipped/backed Hunt and Javid at 100/1 and 60/1 respectively.

    Legend, of course, not being the same thing as fact.
    :smile:
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Well, the palace won’t be happy with Thomas Markle today....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,220
    DavidL said:

    Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?...

    No one is calling Southgate the Scipio Africanus of England, curiously.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,087
    Scott_P said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    England are like they are from Carthage.

    Massively overated team that occasionally gets lucky but when they finally face decent opposition they have their testicles handed to them.

    Bring back Sven.

    Who gets sacked first?

    Jones or Southgate?
    Oh Jones, no question. Southgate has already rather cleverly positioned himself as building towards the future so even an extremely modest WC should not prove fatal this time around. Jones, on the other hand, is reaping some of the arrogance that he sewed.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    Oh Jones, no question. Southgate has already rather cleverly positioned himself as building towards the future so even an extremely modest WC should not prove fatal this time around. Jones, on the other hand, is reaping some of the arrogance that he sewed.

    There's an article in the Times today that says the RFU can't afford to sack him
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,087
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?...

    No one is calling Southgate the Scipio Africanus of England, curiously.
    Its almost as if these classical allusions are not foremost in everyone's thoughts. Weird.

    Almost as weird as that JRM poster that @ScottP linked to. I wonder what percentage of McDonnell's constituents have the faintest idea who JRM is?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,312
    I agree with DavidL that the endorsement of Gove will be crucial in choosing one of the final two. Less sure that it'll be significant in the subsequent members' vote. Maybe HYUFD or David H can advise on who most members see as the best guide?

    Also agree with David that May's position is not necessarily terminally weak. She's shown a real appetite for fudge, and the EU do fudge with enthusiasm. I think she may well survive to get a deal, and will then be hard to topple.

    But a joker in the pack might be further Ministerial resignations this week.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    Recidivist said:

    My money will be going on Gove later on today. I am not quite confident enough in my other hunch to back it. If he wins I think he'll be the big name leaver who first announces we can't actually leave.

    He could not run a bath, if that is the Tories best it is no surprise we are in the merde.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,087
    NickPalmer said:

    I agree with DavidL that the endorsement of Gove will be crucial in choosing one of the final two. Less sure that it'll be significant in the subsequent members' vote. Maybe HYUFD or David H can advise on who most members see as the best guide?

    Also agree with David that May's position is not necessarily terminally weak. She's shown a real appetite for fudge, and the EU do fudge with enthusiasm. I think she may well survive to get a deal, and will then be hard to topple.

    But a joker in the pack might be further Ministerial resignations this week.

    Clearly my work here is done. My work elsewhere awaits....
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Boris is out of it owing to Labour antisemitism. His Tory rivals would tour the tearooms reminding people of Boris's less fortunate pronouncements on race, and warning of social media campaigns to come. For that reason, I can't see him making the final two; indeed, I'd expect him to withdraw after a day or so, much like last time.

    Most Conservative MPs have no great ideological attachment to Brexit and I'd expect them to be looking firstly for a safe pair of hands. Obviously we do not know who will stand but if he does throw his hat in the ring, I'd want at least a saver on Philip Hammond; otherwise yes, Hunt and Javid.

    It will be ironic that after all that's been said about Brexit being about limiting immigration, the next PM will be someone who has called for more. Javid has just handed out free passes to doctors, which makes available more spaces for other skilled workers, not least in IT. If Javid can find a way to make Gareth Bale English by next week, Number 10 will assuredly be his (with Bale at number 11).

    I'm pretty sure that the Tories have been getting it wrong on immigration with their total figures, which I suppose Javid could address. i think in general people are not against immigration in the right circumstances, but they are against and can see the problems with low / no skill and begging immigrants. High skill / specialist immigrants (business owners / footballers), genuine students and key workers are people we need and a positive work and student visa system would support this.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?...

    No one is calling Southgate the Scipio Africanus of England, curiously.
    Its almost as if these classical allusions are not foremost in everyone's thoughts. Weird.

    Almost as weird as that JRM poster that @ScottP linked to. I wonder what percentage of McDonnell's constituents have the faintest idea who JRM is?
    Or know why JRM keeps his phone and wallet in his breast pocket. It doesn't really work. It's the same sort of half-cocked wheeze as JezFest, though one suspects a damn sight cheaper.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,204
    Scott_P said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    England are like they are from Carthage.

    Massively overated team that occasionally gets lucky but when they finally face decent opposition they have their testicles handed to them.

    Bring back Sven.

    Who gets sacked first?

    Jones or Southgate?
    Rumour has it the RFU can’t afford to sack Eddie Jones.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,204
    Talking about Rugby I see Scotland became the first Tier One nation to lose to the USA.

    That’s up there to losing to Scotland at cricket.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,835
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?...

    No one is calling Southgate the Scipio Africanus of England, curiously.
    Its almost as if these classical allusions are not foremost in everyone's thoughts. Weird.

    Almost as weird as that JRM poster that @ScottP linked to. I wonder what percentage of McDonnell's constituents have the faintest idea who JRM is?
    Or know why JRM keeps his phone and wallet in his breast pocket. It doesn't really work. It's the same sort of half-cocked wheeze as JezFest, though one suspects a damn sight cheaper.
    It's ridiculous. JRM would *never* carry a mobile phone. Firstly, it's a late 20th-Century invention, and therefore not to be trusted. Secondly, he'd get his nanny to carry it for him.

  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?...

    No one is calling Southgate the Scipio Africanus of England, curiously.
    Its almost as if these classical allusions are not foremost in everyone's thoughts. Weird.

    Almost as weird as that JRM poster that @ScottP linked to. I wonder what percentage of McDonnell's constituents have the faintest idea who JRM is?
    Or know why JRM keeps his phone and wallet in his breast pocket. It doesn't really work. It's the same sort of half-cocked wheeze as JezFest, though one suspects a damn sight cheaper.
    From what I can tell LabourLive was actually pretty successful they will be doing it again next year. Whereas I can't see this poster doing much work... I think his constituency voted leave and his majority was 18,000+
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,937
    edmundintokyo said:

    If there was a leadership election now it would be a competition for who could make the most audacious promises for what they're going to make the EU give them. Who's the most shameless contender?

    Surely a question that doesn't even need to be answered? Step forward the lying bastard's lying bastard.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,960
    Mr. Jessop, wise chap. Mobile telephones are surely the Devil's work.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,835
    TheJezziah said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?...

    No one is calling Southgate the Scipio Africanus of England, curiously.
    Its almost as if these classical allusions are not foremost in everyone's thoughts. Weird.

    Almost as weird as that JRM poster that @ScottP linked to. I wonder what percentage of McDonnell's constituents have the faintest idea who JRM is?
    Or know why JRM keeps his phone and wallet in his breast pocket. It doesn't really work. It's the same sort of half-cocked wheeze as JezFest, though one suspects a damn sight cheaper.
    From what I can tell LabourLive was actually pretty successful they will be doing it again next year. Whereas I can't see this poster doing much work... I think his constituency voted leave and his majority was 18,000+
    What are the criteria for it being 'actually pretty successful' ? Financial? Political? On what evidence do you base your judgement?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,937
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1008599513135767552

    Carrying one's own phone, wallet and John McDonnell? How vulgar. One has a manservant for that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    They went for a safe pair of hands last time. It went well.

    So I do think the membership might go for so riskier like Boris or Gove. All depends on who is in that final 2.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,930
    edited June 2018
    Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.

    Also of the above contenders Boris on -37% net approval with Yougov is much more popular with the public than Hunt on -61% and Gove on 66% and only just behind Mogg and Javid on -35% each

    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Boris_Johnson
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Dura_Ace said:

    Morris_Dancer said:



    No idea how England will do, but weight of money might make the odds on them not winning longer than they should be.

    0-0 draw is excellent value at 8/1 I think. Both teams have only scored 8 goals in their last 8 games.
    Tunisia is a far weaker side than England. We really should win this evening, and conceivably by a wide margin. We can overdo this national pessimism. It is Belgium we need to worry about, not Tunisia or Panama on Sunday -- but the Belgians are our final group game and by then we should already have qualified, as should they.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My legendary modesty prevents me from reminding you all that I tipped/backed Hunt and Javid at 100/1 and 60/1 respectively.

    That would be just after my header saying it was going to be Hunt right?

    (Javid was ruled out as having not shone in Cabinet but he is back in contention)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My legendary modesty prevents me from reminding you all that I tipped/backed Hunt and Javid at 100/1 and 60/1 respectively.

    That would be just after my header saying it was going to be Hunt right?

    (Javid was ruled out as having not shone in Cabinet but he is back in contention)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    DavidL said:

    Not sure I agree with the premise of the thread header to be honest. In what way did May's approach (which indeed is not pretty) not work last week? She won all the votes, pretty comfortably in the end. I suspect that the Lords will have regard to that although they have lost the place. I think she came out of last week stronger than she went in and the NHS promise was delivered with some new found confidence.

    It didn't work because there are plenty of crunch points to come and her deceptions means she is less trustworthy, meaning more may feel it worthwhile to kick her out sooner.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1008599513135767552

    Will John McDonnell's constituents understand it? I don't
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    JosiasJessop said:

    TheJezziah said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?...

    No one is calling Southgate the Scipio Africanus of England, curiously.
    Its almost as if these classical allusions are not foremost in everyone's thoughts. Weird.

    Almost as weird as that JRM poster that @ScottP linked to. I wonder what percentage of McDonnell's constituents have the faintest idea who JRM is?
    Or know why JRM keeps his phone and wallet in his breast pocket. It doesn't really work. It's the same sort of half-cocked wheeze as JezFest, though one suspects a damn sight cheaper.
    From what I can tell LabourLive was actually pretty successful they will be doing it again next year. Whereas I can't see this poster doing much work... I think his constituency voted leave and his majority was 18,000+
    What are the criteria for it being 'actually pretty successful' ? Financial? Political? On what evidence do you base your judgement?
    Press releases from the Dear Leader, I presume.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,563
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1008599513135767552

    Ruth spots the flaw:

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1008611037443248128?s=20
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Gorgeous typo in this BBC report:

    Debit card payments more popular than cash
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44496513

    Debit card payments have overtaken cash use for the first time, new figures show, as contactless technology takes a firm hold on day-to-day spending.

    A total of 13.2 billion debt card payments were made last year, a rise of 14% on the previous year, according to banking trade body UK Finance.

    Not really a typo. Not sure - a malapropism?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.

    I doubt the membership will get a vote. If they do, then like you I doubt there will be a true Brexiteer on the ballot paper: only Gove of the likely runners ticks that box, since Boris was only ever 50/50 (and won't stand as I predicted earlier in this thread) and Hunt's conversion came after the referendum.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,204
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My legendary modesty prevents me from reminding you all that I tipped/backed Hunt and Javid at 100/1 and 60/1 respectively.

    That would be just after my header saying it was going to be Hunt right?

    (Javid was ruled out as having not shone in Cabinet but he is back in contention)
    Nope. I tipped him well before that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,087
    HYUFD said:

    Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.

    Also of the above contenders Boris on -37% with Yougov is much more popular with the public than Hunt on -61% and Gove on 69%

    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Boris_Johnson

    Boris is still very much in contention. "Delivering the bus" will give him a huge boost with members, even if the final Brexit deal is meh.....

    My big issue is STILL why would Gove think Boris has thrown off those doubts he had previously? Would he knife Boris AGAIN?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Casino_Royale said:

    My sense is that those that recognise who Hunt and Gove are (both are still not universally known) haven’t a great opinion of either.

    That leaves Javid, so my money is currently going on him.

    Its first about being known in tory circles though. Their public perception is important to that I imagine, but is guess you get one chance to revitalise your image as a leadership figure not, say, a health secretary.

    Javid has made a good start in getting some good press in his first weeks, so goes into a contest with an advantage I'd say. Hunt has more baggage but if chosen by the tories I'd give him one chance with the public to be seen as more than that health secretary no one likes.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,563
    Alanbrooke said:

    Scott_P said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    England are like they are from Carthage.

    Massively overated team that occasionally gets lucky but when they finally face decent opposition they have their testicles handed to them.

    Bring back Sven.

    Who gets sacked first?

    Jones or Southgate?
    Merkel
    Strolling through Munich last night the mood in the cafes and bars (packed out) subdued noticeably after the Mexican goal...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I laid Michael Gove a couple of weeks ago to a point where he’s a much less than average winner for me. I’m comfortable with that.

    Let's hope this site is only read by gamblers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,930
    edited June 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.

    Also of the above contenders Boris on -37% net approval with Yougov is much more popular with the public than Hunt on -61% and Gove on 66% and only just behind Mogg and Javid on -35% each

    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Boris_Johnson

    May for comparison is on -49% with Yougov, so Boris, Javid and Mogg poll better than her but Hunt and Gove poll worse
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    edmundintokyo said:

    If there was a leadership election now it would be a competition for who could make the most audacious promises for what they're going to make the EU give them. Who's the most shameless contender?

    They don't even have to be that shameless. Anyone promising to see through the Tory manifesto pledges on CUSM exit would get full points here.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    JosiasJessop said:

    TheJezziah said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?...

    No one is calling Southgate the Scipio Africanus of England, curiously.
    Its almost as if these classical allusions are not foremost in everyone's thoughts. Weird.

    Almost as weird as that JRM poster that @ScottP linked to. I wonder what percentage of McDonnell's constituents have the faintest idea who JRM is?
    Or know why JRM keeps his phone and wallet in his breast pocket. It doesn't really work. It's the same sort of half-cocked wheeze as JezFest, though one suspects a damn sight cheaper.
    From what I can tell LabourLive was actually pretty successful they will be doing it again next year. Whereas I can't see this poster doing much work... I think his constituency voted leave and his majority was 18,000+
    What are the criteria for it being 'actually pretty successful' ? Financial? Political? On what evidence do you base your judgement?
    On the assumption you don't think much of my judgement I'll leave Stephen Bush do the talking first....

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/06/just-jeremy-corbyn-labourlive-proved-received-wisdom-wrong

    Probably more of a medium term pay off and political rather than financial. Actually pretty successful in that we hosted the first one and it went okay, it is certainly something that can be built on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    edited June 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?

    What we have seen so far in this WC is that hard working, organised teams are difficult to break down. I think England will find this more difficult than many seem to think. I'm guessing 1-1.

    England are like they are from Carthage.

    Massively overated team that occasionally gets lucky but when they finally face decent opposition they have their testicles handed to them.

    Bring back Sven.
    England are not an overrated team because so few genuinely think they are ever contenders. They are usually, correctly, labelled as middling.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Scott_P said:

    @Alison_McGovern: Hospital pass https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1008602525124055040

    Ha. Poor Hammond.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,930
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.

    I doubt the membership will get a vote. If they do, then like you I doubt there will be a true Brexiteer on the ballot paper: only Gove of the likely runners ticks that box, since Boris was only ever 50/50 (and won't stand as I predicted earlier in this thread) and Hunt's conversion came after the referendum.
    The membership will go berserk if they do not get a vote this time so they will get one and given the Leave and Remain factions within the Tory Parliamentary Party will almost certainly refuse to give a candidate from the other faction a coronation, the last candidate standing from each faction will end up comprising the two who go to the membership
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    kle4 said:

    They went for a safe pair of hands last time. It went well.

    So I do think the membership might go for so riskier like Boris or Gove. All depends on who is in that final 2.

    Yes -- so to tip Boris or Gove, you need to show how either of them can get into the final two. Boris I don't think will stand (see earlier in this thread) and Gove's only hope is that JRM can deliver the ERG as a block vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    TheJezziah said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    TheJezziah said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?...

    No one is calling Southgate the Scipio Africanus of England, curiously.
    Its almost as if these classical allusions are not foremost in everyone's thoughts. Weird.

    Almost as weird as that JRM poster that @ScottP linked to. I wonder what percentage of McDonnell's constituents have the faintest idea who JRM is?
    Or know why JRM keeps his phone and wallet in his breast pocket. It doesn't really work. It's the same sort of half-cocked wheeze as JezFest, though one suspects a damn sight cheaper.
    From what I can tell LabourLive was actually pretty successful they will be doing it again next year. Whereas I can't see this poster doing much work... I think his constituency voted leave and his majority was 18,000+
    What are the criteria for it being 'actually pretty successful' ? Financial? Political? On what evidence do you base your judgement?
    it is certainly something that can be built on.
    I could see that. Start off with lower pricing, get a couple of better acts and it doesn't take much for it to increase in size impressively.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,930
    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.

    Also of the above contenders Boris on -37% with Yougov is much more popular with the public than Hunt on -61% and Gove on 69%

    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Boris_Johnson

    Boris is still very much in contention. "Delivering the bus" will give him a huge boost with members, even if the final Brexit deal is meh.....

    My big issue is STILL why would Gove think Boris has thrown off those doubts he had previously? Would he knife Boris AGAIN?
    Gove I think has enough self awareness to know he is unelectable and lacks the charisma of Boris so this time I think Gove would back Boris in return for Boris making him his Chancellor
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,930
    edited June 2018
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    kle4 said:

    They went for a safe pair of hands last time. It went well.

    So I do think the membership might go for so riskier like Boris or Gove. All depends on who is in that final 2.

    Yes -- so to tip Boris or Gove, you need to show how either of them can get into the final two. Boris I don't think will stand (see earlier in this thread) and Gove's only hope is that JRM can deliver the ERG as a block vote.
    Boris will definitely stand this time, if he does probably only Mogg would beat him with the Tory membership as it stands but Mogg like Gove I think will back Boris in the end
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.

    Also of the above contenders Boris on -37% with Yougov is much more popular with the public than Hunt on -61% and Gove on 69%

    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Boris_Johnson

    Boris is still very much in contention. "Delivering the bus" will give him a huge boost with members, even if the final Brexit deal is meh.....

    My big issue is STILL why would Gove think Boris has thrown off those doubts he had previously? Would he knife Boris AGAIN?
    Gove I think has enough self awareness to know he is unelectable and lacks the charisma of Boris so this time I think Gove would back Boris in return for Boris making him his Chancellor
    About time we returned to the days of PM and Chancellor scheming against each other, being reluctant allies.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    OT. Who'd have guessed. Melania's got a mouth

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44515123
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.

    I doubt the membership will get a vote. If they do, then like you I doubt there will be a true Brexiteer on the ballot paper: only Gove of the likely runners ticks that box, since Boris was only ever 50/50 (and won't stand as I predicted earlier in this thread) and Hunt's conversion came after the referendum.
    The membership will go berserk if they do not get a vote this time so they will get one and given the Leave and Remain factions within the Tory Parliamentary Party will almost certainly refuse to give a candidate from the other faction a coronation, the last candidate standing from each faction will end up comprising the two who go to the membership
    There are 318 Conservative MPs. There were 62 signatories of the ERG letter, and even if we can round it up to 100 Leaver MPs, they are still outnumbered 2-1. They do not have the strength to crow-bar Gove into the final two.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,204
    edited June 2018
    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.

    Also of the above contenders Boris on -37% with Yougov is much more popular with the public than Hunt on -61% and Gove on 69%

    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Boris_Johnson

    Boris is still very much in contention. "Delivering the bus" will give him a huge boost with members, even if the final Brexit deal is meh.....

    My big issue is STILL why would Gove think Boris has thrown off those doubts he had previously? Would he knife Boris AGAIN?
    I was told by someone who would know that Gove thinks Boris is even more unsuitable to be PM now than he was in 2016.

    Launching a pretty naked leadership attempt on the day of an attempted terrorist attack hasn’t been forgotten by many.

    I suspect Gove knows that if he’s going to stab Boris again that Gove must not stab himself in the process.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,962
    Roger said:

    OT. Who'd have guessed. Melania's got a mouth

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44515123

    Ofdonald will be getting some correction this evening.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,930
    NickPalmer said:

    I agree with DavidL that the endorsement of Gove will be crucial in choosing one of the final two. Less sure that it'll be significant in the subsequent members' vote. Maybe HYUFD or David H can advise on who most members see as the best guide?

    Also agree with David that May's position is not necessarily terminally weak. She's shown a real appetite for fudge, and the EU do fudge with enthusiasm. I think she may well survive to get a deal, and will then be hard to topple.

    But a joker in the pack might be further Ministerial resignations this week.

    Nick I think you are right that May likely survives until maybe even the end of the transition period and Gove will be Kingmaker again
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,930
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?

    What we have seen so far in this WC is that hard working, organised teams are difficult to break down. I think England will find this more difficult than many seem to think. I'm guessing 1-1.

    England are like they are from Carthage.

    Massively overated team that occasionally gets lucky but when they finally face decent opposition they have their testicles handed to them.

    Bring back Sven.
    This England team are less overrated and hyped than any England team at a world cup I can remember, that may be an advantage especially with Germany, Brazil and Argentina and Spain underperforming so far
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.

    Also of the above contenders Boris on -37% with Yougov is much more popular with the public than Hunt on -61% and Gove on 69%

    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Boris_Johnson

    Boris is still very much in contention. "Delivering the bus" will give him a huge boost with members, even if the final Brexit deal is meh.....

    My big issue is STILL why would Gove think Boris has thrown off those doubts he had previously? Would he knife Boris AGAIN?
    It's difficult to imagine anyone believing Boris has 'delivered the bus'. Even the Mail and Telegraph have rubbished the claim
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,312
    edited June 2018
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyway on to more important matters than PM. How are England going to do today? Tunisia are called the Eagles of Carthage. Does this give both @MorrisDancer and @TSE conflicts of interest or at least a foot in each camp?...

    No one is calling Southgate the Scipio Africanus of England, curiously.
    Its almost as if these classical allusions are not foremost in everyone's thoughts. Weird.

    Almost as weird as that JRM poster that @ScottP linked to. I wonder what percentage of McDonnell's constituents have the faintest idea who JRM is?
    Looks like a LibDem stunt to me, shrug. Too implausible and political-nerdy to work, like suggesting Gove is a secret ScotNat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,930
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Well, the palace won’t be happy with Thomas Markle today....

    I expect his bank manager will be though
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,930
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.

    Also of the above contenders Boris on -37% with Yougov is much more popular with the public than Hunt on -61% and Gove on 69%

    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Boris_Johnson

    Boris is still very much in contention. "Delivering the bus" will give him a huge boost with members, even if the final Brexit deal is meh.....

    My big issue is STILL why would Gove think Boris has thrown off those doubts he had previously? Would he knife Boris AGAIN?
    Gove I think has enough self awareness to know he is unelectable and lacks the charisma of Boris so this time I think Gove would back Boris in return for Boris making him his Chancellor
    About time we returned to the days of PM and Chancellor scheming against each other, being reluctant allies.
    Yes Boris and Gove are the new Cameron and Osborne and Brown and Blair
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,930
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.

    I doubt the membership will get a vote. If they do, then like you I doubt there will be a true Brexiteer on the ballot paper: only Gove of the likely runners ticks that box, since Boris was only ever 50/50 (and won't stand as I predicted earlier in this thread) and Hunt's conversion came after the referendum.
    The membership will go berserk if they do not get a vote this time so they will get one and given the Leave and Remain factions within the Tory Parliamentary Party will almost certainly refuse to give a candidate from the other faction a coronation, the last candidate standing from each faction will end up comprising the two who go to the membership
    There are 318 Conservative MPs. There were 62 signatories of the ERG letter, and even if we can round it up to 100 Leaver MPs, they are still outnumbered 2-1. They do not have the strength to crow-bar Gove into the final two.
    130 Tory MPs voted Leave, well over a third of the 318 total and the 106 MPs needed to ensure a candidate in the final two sent to Tory members
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,127
    Has anyone mentioned Ruth yet?

    Not inconceivable that events and time will flow her way.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I'm sure a Leaver would win the membership vote, but I don't have the foggiest idea who that would be if it isn't Boris or Gove. Who are the other Leavers in the Cabinet? I assume that the Brexit Bulldog is too closely associated with the current negotiations to take over if a change is forced before we exit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    Javid or Hunt, probably the former, will likely be the Remainer candidates in the final two sent to the membership but if May is replaced the mood I get from Tory mbers is they now want a Leaver as leader unlike Remainer May so whichever of Boris, Gove or Mogg ends up in the last two has an excellent chance of winning the Tory membership vote and thus becoming Tory leader and PM.

    Also of the above contenders Boris on -37% with Yougov is much more popular with the public than Hunt on -61% and Gove on 69%

    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Boris_Johnson

    Boris is still very much in contention. "Delivering the bus" will give him a huge boost with members, even if the final Brexit deal is meh.....

    My big issue is STILL why would Gove think Boris has thrown off those doubts he had previously? Would he knife Boris AGAIN?
    Gove I think has enough self awareness to know he is unelectable and lacks the charisma of Boris so this time I think Gove would back Boris in return for Boris making him his Chancellor
    About time we returned to the days of PM and Chancellor scheming against each other, being reluctant allies.
    Yes Boris and Gove are the new Cameron and Osborne and Brown and Blair
    If Cameron and Osborne were reluctant allies they hid it well. Cameron even rewarded him with a major honour when he stepped down.
This discussion has been closed.