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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Former long-standing favourite to succeed TMay, Moggsy now dow
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Former long-standing favourite to succeed TMay, Moggsy now down in third place in the betting
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We are not rerunning the referendum just because he's flounced - he should have thought harder before he voted to leave.
2) JRM and Boris are proving to be overrated/wholly unsuited to being PM so Gove is the last Leaver left standing
3) Gove was getting the support of the Osbornite faction. Gove, apart from Brexit, is pure Cameroon. We need someone articulating One Nation Toryism, it is the only Type of Toryism to have won a majority this century. The party still has a majority One Nation MP make up.
London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens
Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens
What's not to love and am sure 100% of PBers will support this.
Therefore while I don't see it entirely resolving the nation's, and it would be very complicated to arrange, nor do I see a political path to it happening right now, I think some kind of at least broad philosophical direction of soft/hard/remain being put back to the people is looking less horrible as time goes on.
If you mix natural yoghurt with some salt in a muslin cloth on a sieve on a bowl then leave it in the fridge overnight you get Labneh, Lebanese cream cheese. The salt releases the whey. If you stir in grated garlic and herbes de Provence with the salt you get something like Boursin but so much better. I'm eating some now and highly recommend
Migrant crisis: EU leaders split over new migrant deal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44660806
Not a good look when the deals in question are as clear as a compromise between May and Dominic Grieve.
But if it saves Merkel's job I guess it achieved its aim.
Or has he spent some of his newly acquired fortune on a megalomaniac's mansion ?
People can't complain now if they realise now that Leaving means we get a worse deal than we currently have, they were warned many times beforehand.
You won, suck it up, to paraphrase Sean.
So if we have a bad Brexit, we can overturn it at the 2022 or 2027 general election, I'm fairly certain at least one if not both major parties will campaign on rejoining, wanting to continue economic ruin won't be an election winner I expect.
"We spend X on the NHS lets send it to the EU instead"
Plus the comments of Leavers pre referendum will be used to damage the case of staying out.
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1012800370563829760
So 'suck it up, you won' is a load of bollocks, since it wasn't a complaint about what kind of deal we are getting and it being bad and isn't that terrible (it may well be, but that wasn't what this point was about), it was about trying to arrive at a conclusion which has some more public satisfaction, be it soft/hard or remain. Or at least trying to arrive at said conclusion more effectively.
But well done sidestepping that for the point you wanted it to be rather than the point it was. The kind of thinking which lost it for remain, it's good to see no sides have learned any lessons in the past few years, since it's much more satisfying to pretend.
https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/1012764329610039296
Any referendum on a deal that includes an option to Remain is an affront to democracy, we'd be in perpetual neverendums*.
A significant number of Leavers wouldn't accept it and I'd expect violence on the street, so that's another reason to avoid it.
I've learned the lessons from defeat, it helped me realise why Mrs May was crap before everybody else. Have cake and eat it politics is popular, Corbyn is just following the Leave playbook.
*Plus it would set a precedent that the SNP would exploit ruthlessly to overturn the 2014 referendum result.
Saddleworth was less smoky than yesterday ,but there were two small active fires I could see, one where the moor meets the Greenfield/Mossley border and a small fire to the west of Uppermill.
Once home there was a grass fire above the John Smith's stadium, about the 6th grass fire in the Huddersfield area in the last 48 hours. I'm sure that picture is repeated across a dozen or so moor edge towns and cities.
The main news is that the wind is increasing, with 30mph gusts forecast to coincide with the early afternoon temperature peaks on both Saturday and Sunday. The weekend could see the worst of things, especially above the M61 where the fires are freer to travel west.
But he's so sexy
Porsche have broken the Nordschleife record:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5&v=PQmSUHhP3ug
Now what happens in the future I don't know and nor do you yet you seem very unwilling to accept that there might be any other outcome than economic ruin.
' In other areas of the country, prices are still growing strongly, by 7.1% in Edinburgh and 7% in Manchester, year on year. '
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/29/london-house-price-growth-at-nine-year-low-amid-edinburgh-and-manchester-spurt
Given the housing crisis and lack of affordability for anyone in London still renting who doesn't earn £100k and have a wealthy mummy and daddy to give them £100k for a deposit - so they can take out a 4 times salary mortgage to buy a one bed in Peckham - it's surely a positive sign!
It would be headline news and we would be being told that Brexit had destroyed the UK economy, there would be political uproar and the media would be interviews with redundant shop workers etc.
But that's not happened.
Instead its German retail sales which have fallen 1.6% over the last year and the UK's which have risen 3.9%.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/722391453599723520
I said overturning 43 years membership should be a process not an event, but the man who is charge of Brexit thought it would be easy.
We are in month 16 of triggering article 50 and we still haven't worked out what we want, that's something we should have sorted before we triggered Article 50.
Economic ruin will flow because we're running out of time to get stuff sorted.
There's only one realistic option as I don't think BINO will be sellable, and that's to trigger an extension of Article 50.
In less than 12 weeks time the organisation I work for will have to make decision to move several business divisions to the EU because we won't be able to function with a no deal.
I know several other firms in the field are making similar contingencies.
Not to worry, this sector only exported circa £25 billion per year of services to EU customers.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/april2018#house-price-index-by-english-region
I suspect it was just a statistical blip but even within London there are some big variations in property price movements.
I imagine some new build flats in less desirable areas sold to overseas investors have had sharp price falls.
Though I doubt there will be much sadness about that from Londoners.
They bus them in for the new flats (£500k+) straight from the airport where I am. It's lieka strange tourist destination
All you ever do is show that tweet full of gibberish.
Show us some actual predictions about unemployment or house prices or the stock market or the trade deficit or the construction industry or retail sales or business investment or anything to do with the economics of the last two years.
If you made any there's no shame in them being wrong, whatever they were they wouldn't have been as bollox as those that the Treasury made for George Osborne.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-36880778/what-s-behind-the-huge-chinese-investment-in-sheffield
https://www.economist.com/kaffeeklatsch/2018/06/19/angela-merkel-has-two-weeks-to-keep-germanys-centre-right-together
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6660751/michael-gove-rips-up-brexit-plan/
A break between the CSU and CDU would be a big one to take.
If that does happen then together with the German footballing failure we might well be approaching the end of days.
It would suggest that May has a plan.
It's a bit late to wait until after the result, don't you think?
Taking back control if you will.
The credibility of the entire political requires that some form of "leave" be executed.
https://twitter.com/allmattnyt/status/1012830609193029632?s=21
The EUreferendum was advisory, why do so many people think that it was compulsory? Just curious!
Because the public were told very clearly before the vote, that'd they'd vote once and the result respected. The PM at the time said it explicitly.
The credibility of the entire political requires that some form of "leave" be executed.
The credibility of the entire political class has already been shattered by the last 2.5 years. Cabinet collective responsibility, Parliamentary sovereignty, Judicial impartiality all have been undermined by the actions of the last two years. After what I have seen, whether the referendum is `fully' implemented is just another possibility by a lacklustre political elites
@DegenRolf
One possible reason why the majority of people falsely believe that the world is getting worse: Concept creep. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6396/1465 … "
https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1012716792945528832
It’s amazing how high is the current state of automotive engineering, when it doesn’t have to produce a car that complies with the rules for any actual race series. Hopefully this record inspires others to go for it, anyone got an F1 car lying around somewhere?
A huge portion of the stock of housing loans are in London, and LTVs are highest here. A decline in London house prices negatively impacts the ability of your bank to lend in Bolton. If the decline was serious, new lending dry up, and that would affect the whole country.
Of those, Javid looks best-placed to me. New and fresh to the public, but holder of high office. Seemingly sound on leaving the EU, able to try and handle the migrant situation better than his two predecessors (turns out you need a man's sensitive touch
He does have one big potential drawback, though. The Home Office is often destroyer of careers and, where it wasn't (May), perhaps it should've been. With leaving the EU there's every potential for buggering up even a small number of the very large caseload waiting, contingent on how EU migrants here are handled in the negotiations. He needs the leadership contest to come sooner, rather than later, I'd've thought.
Mr. JS, many thanks for posting that by Degen. It's fascinating, and one more reason why the concept of 'relative' poverty is utterly ridiculous.
Compared to 2010 when we were running a £175bn annual deficit the change is remarkable especially when you factor in that we have slashed that deficit without triggering a recession and that our current deficit includes the interest payments on previous ones.
Whilst sexy, there are grave doubts as to how much such records actually impact cars for the everyday pleb user - except for putting up prices ...
(On a related note, an EV has just done Pike's Peak in under eight minutes. Effing amazing.)
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/06/757148-volkswagen-makes-racing-history-with-record-breaking-electric-race-car/
It would be interesting to see some figures around the percentage of bank lending on a regional basis. After all we're obsessed with all kinds of other regional metrics.
Porsche does have a huge motorsport department, running hundreds of GT cars in various championships. This particular car is based on the Le Mans prototype which retired last year, plus a load more power and minus a fair bit of weight.
The electric Pikes Peak car is an interesting one, the event is well suited to electric over petrol because of the high altitude (over 4,000m at the top of the course). It’s almost as if VW are trying to disctact from their diesel problems in the US.
House prices need to come down, but don't expect a painless process.
The resulting borrowing binge for current account spending was shall we say unfortunate.
A seven-fold increase in Brits acquiring EU citizenship. BBC has received figures showing a "huge rise" or even a "dramatic increase" in the numbers.
From 1,800 to 13,000
13,000 is about the annual number of failed applications for UK citizenship, which are about one twelfth the number of successful applications.
Why the drama about such an insignificant number?
F1: hmm. There's a special on Mercedes to get a front row lock-out at 3 (Ladbrokes). There was one at 5 last week that I thought was silly, which shows what I know.
Already backed Bottas for fastest qualifier, each way (so, pays out top 2) at 7, but if you haven't the Mercedes bet is worth considering, although it's a bit mean.
Mind you, you could try matching it with a smaller stakes bet on Vettel for pole each way. Not sure what the German's odds are, so might not be long enough to work.
Can anyone remember what happened a month ago to trigger this sudden upswing in Gove's rating, and JRM's plunge? Hunt and Javid will be pleased at their more modest rises too.
Narrated by Michael Sheen. BBC at its best. it even managed a short but perfectly formed swipe at Brexit. Really not to be missed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0b7hl3d
Just because he's in the cabinet doesn't mean he's any different from Rees-Mogg in any meaningful way. It just means he's more ambitious.