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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sajid Javid becomes the fifth CON MP to be favourite to succee
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sajid Javid becomes the fifth CON MP to be favourite to succeed TMay since GE2017
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Would cement my position as Tipster of the Year. Ahem.
From the Grauniad:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/02/may-to-float-third-brexit-customs-model-at-chequers-meeting
"With hopes fading of a bespoke wider agreement, senior government sources say ministers are broadly being asked to choose between an intimate, Norway-style partnership and a much looser, Canada-style trade deal."
"Davis, who has long favoured what he calls a “Canada plus plus plus” approach – echoing Ottawa’s trade deal with the EU but covering services – has held a series of meetings with May in recent days."
Great. Having been fighting over two options rejected by the EU they have come up with a third. Are the EU going to give us "Canada Plus Plus Plus" in the 6 weeks left? Haven't they been very clear and consistent that we can go swivel if we want to cherry pick?
We can cancel A50 and remain. We can significantly extend A50 and remain. We can leave to EEA. Or there is the cliff edge. The only option offering true freedom is the cliff edge, albiet very brief freedom before we go splat at the bottom.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/07/confirmed-cameron-did-ask-obama-to-say-brexit-britain-would-be-at-the-back-of-the-queue/
I did warn you about all of this before you voted Leave.
If there is a shift towards a Norway style agreement, then this could be seen as a betrayal by those Brexit voters.
I am not sure who those betrayed voters would shift to, maybe not vote?
More importantly, will the UK be an early recipient of a Trump FART?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/44679483
Old Arron's little list is getting bigger.
https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1013710918977572864
https://twitter.com/davidherdson/status/1013713826414497793?s=21
https://twitter.com/davidherdson/status/1013714605707849728?s=21
For what it's worth, I think Theresa May has been greatly strengthened by Jacob Rees-Mogg's intervention today, which seems to have had the effect of rallying Conservative loyalist MPs around her. She's quite capable of squandering that goodwill but for now she looks fairly safe.
So I will be looking for the Sajid Javid price to shorten still further - perhaps as far as 4 - then lay him. While he's obviously ambitious, he's not all that. And Home Secretary rivals the Defence Against The Dark Arts post for unwanted turnover.
There’s going to be some disappointed Trumpers when they realise Trump’s daughter married a Jew.
Phew!
No Number 10 spin behind this.
Does she not know that in North London, North is spelt Norf?
https://twitter.com/nsoames/status/1013711372113178625?s=21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNqpejPzdIA
at 46 min 30 secs
A free trade deal on goods and services between the UK and EU
Out of the single market
Out of the customs union
Independence from the ECJ
Existing rights of UK/EU citizens in respective countries to be maintained
We want the moon on a stick. Brexiteers still surprised we can't get it.
They can't admit they were wrong about Mogg without admitting the possibility that they might also be wrong about absolutely everything else they ever said
Others have used him as a pawn sacrifice in order to bring down the Queen.
It may be they were lying and their subsequent recall is more accurate. But it is equally likely that they were telling the truth and their subsequent recall is affected by subsequent events. After all, there is plenty of scientific evidence showing how unreliable memory is and how easily it can be manipulated.
I know it doesn't suit your narrative. But you should at least consider the possibility that sovereignty was indeed the main concern of leave voters at the time of the referendum.
"Existing rights of UK/EU citizens in respective countries to be maintained "
Rights guaranteed by the ECJ...
A deal involving most of the following is where I hope we can be:
- Following of virtually all SM rules on trade and standards, based on mutual recognition
- Standstill transition as discussed.
- An early deal on post-trasition day 1 participation in critical areas, e.g. Euratom, air traffic
- A high level outline on future trade relations pending more talks - we will have to accept that most of the cherries here will be picked by the EU and Ireland, but we can hope to nick a few. Some UK sectors for which Europe would prefer to compete harder will get a rough deal.
(Essentially we will be following almost all trade rules for a percentage of access)
- Extended Customs transition, duration as needed based on EU accepting one of our customs proposals
- No formal SM and an end to automatic FoM
- No formal CU at end of extra transition
- All ongoing payments transactional for specific participations
- ECJ accepted for limited and specific technical participations only
And separately this will give us:
- Some freedom to strike trade deals on a 'here are our rules' basis
- Separation from the federalising ambitions of some in the EU
- The ability to pull some jolly accounting wheeze to fund the NHS
Dear Brexiteer, deliver me something like this, and I solemnly promise not to sabotage your flight of fancy.
Javid trounces Hunt 62% to 21% with Tory members
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-2-javid-62-per-cent-hunt-21-per-cent.html
Gove comfortably beats Boris 56% to 25%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-1-gove-56-per-cent-johnson-25-per-cent.html
Boris narrowly beats Hunt 42% to 39%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-3-johnson-42-per-cent-hunt-39-per-cent.html
Looks like a Javid v Gove run off with Javid the likely winner
I agree JRM isout of the running if a leadership contest takes place before an election, but if May is caught in post by an unexpected election, Mogg could be next leader. In Javid vs Gove, I think Gove would win.
She is a mum with a nice smile but more importantly,has run well in this particular race before and any future prediction is best predicated upon past performance.She made it to the final 2 last time.She's in good form on the speech circuits of the Tory party.
Leadsom at 22-1 is too big.She's a player.
Similar comparisons with the UK withdrawal from the EU and our future world economic ranking is awaited from PBers of a certain REMAIN persuasion ....
#SaveJacob
???
Rats in a sack.
She might well have won the party membership vote. And of course if you had a PM who actually believed in Brexit a whole different approach might have been taken. Cos threatening no deal but making zero preparations for it has been folly and totally undermined the negotiations.
But what they should avoid is getting into Twitter spats.
They say that whoever yields the knife never wears the Crown - expect this is obviously not true (er, Thatcher...). In this case, the Cabinet Brexiteers won't act and if this all comes unravelled (which I think it will) then JRM will be the one who has credibility because he never deviated from his beliefs. Do you honestly think Gove and Javid are going to be credible for sitting on their hands as May engaged in the most inept negotiation of all time?
If the Leavers resign, JRM will not stand, he will back Boris. But if the Leavers stay and the wheels fall off, JRM is calculating that he will be best placed and he may well be right.
But Meeks' excellent History of Argentina header certainly covered such ground.
Though I think Javid likely gets it either way, he now polls best of the top 4 in the Cabinet plus Mogg with Yougov and now leads with members
https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1013745740991094784?s=21
Leadsom is a poor person's politician.
Leadsom would have beaten TMay in the 2016 members' vote.
Heaven help us all.
If you threw him in to a barrel of boobs he’d come up sucking his own thumb.
But you Remainers were on here night and day saying that we had to pay the Brexit bill and now you are complaining? But of course you are in love with Robbins, so you pretend that this was down to Davis. Shameful.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/28/roger-stone-aide-robert-mueller-subpoena-682318
The rule of law is wobbling a bit in the US.
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1013618640061595648
The new Mexican President is also a close friend of Jeremy Corbyn and both share a similar populist left ideology while of course Corbyn's wife is Mexican