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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hubristic Overreach – what happens to dominant parties

SystemSystem Posts: 11,682
edited July 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hubristic Overreach – what happens to dominant parties

It’s pretty widely-believed that politicians are all in it for themselves – the fame, the money, the sense of power. On the whole, that’s not true in most democratic countries. Fame is a double-edged sword: the media will build you up and then tear you down. If you’re good enough to get a Cabinet salary, you’re good enough to earn more for less work outside. And few retired politicians report that their experience was one of untrammelled power – most report perpetual frustration alleviated by short periods of achievement.

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Comments

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    First, and thanks for the header, Nick!
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667
    Second... half coming soon
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,296
    Those videos of you were never made public though, were they?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667
    England looking more like the England of old as that half went on... sadly.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Very good Nick, a well written insight from the inside of politics.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,296
    edited July 2018
    Benpointer said:

    England looking more like the England of old as that half went on... sadly.

    I think it is troubling that they did not get the lead when on top. Alli has done very little. Lindgard looks most likely. Want to see him on the ball more.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,613
    To make a football analogy, I'd rather win the cup and get relegated (like Wigan) than achieve mid-table mediocrity season after season.

    When a party gets the chance to push through its deepest desires they should take the chance, because you don't know when you might have another opportunity.

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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Great post, Nick. Fully agree with both the why people get involved in politics, and the issue of hubristic overreach. The latter is not just confined to politics - see a version of it in safety too.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    England looking more like the England of old as that half went on... sadly.

    I think it is troubling that they did not get the lead when on top. Alli has done very little. Lindgard looks most likely. Want to see him on the ball more.
    Alli looks a bit injured still. Might be best to have Cheek on
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Excellent thread, Mr XMP.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,296
    Whilst I agree with the sentiment did hubris not take a bit of a doing here last year? I think that there will be few politicians who think their triumph is inevitable after that.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited July 2018
    "Hubristic Overreach" - One of the great 70s prog rock bands. I have a double album on blue vinyl.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited July 2018
    Interesting article but it usually takes close to a decade or more in a leadership role to fall victim to hubris eg Blair went to war in Iraq after 9 years as Labour leader and 6 as PM, Thatcher pushed for the poll tax after 15 years as party leader and 10 as PM, Cameron called an EU referendum he assumed he could not lose after 11 years as party leader and 6 as PM.

    Even the GOP in the US have now controlled Congress for 8 years and have added the Presidency too for the last two if they try for Trumpcare and to cut back abortion rights.

    You need success and several election victories under your belt before you can start to fall victim to complacency and hubris
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,601
    Fair point about the US, but if anyone in UK politics is still experiencing hubris, then they are utterly delusional
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2018
    Penalty for England. Maybe this is a normal style of play in Colombia?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    England penalty
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,601
    Ref should tell these guys walk away now, or red card.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Nigelb said:

    Ref should tell these guys walk away now, or red card.

    I can only assume that arguing with the referee is par for the course in Colombia.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,944
    I am getting really fed up with Young. England got awarded a penalty and the player got a yellow card but yet again Young is in there arguing with the referee. It is stupid and he is going to get himself into a load of trouble if he is not careful.

    Southgate should be telling his players to stay away from the referee and stop crowding around him.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Jordan Henderson is a prat for getting involved.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Book the lot of them
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,944
    SandyRentool said:

    To make a football analogy, I'd rather win the cup and get relegated (like Wigan) than achieve mid-table mediocrity season after season.

    When a party gets the chance to push through its deepest desires they should take the chance, because you don't know when you might have another opportunity.

    I am a West Ham fan. Mid table mediocrity is all I can aspire to for my team. :(
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    Kane scores, 1-0 England!!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Thank god.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,296
    Fair play to Harry - nerves of steel and total belief
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082
    Was this how Argentina behaved in 1966 ?
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Eesh England have to get a grip and make sure they keep 11 on the field
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    another_richard said:

    Was this how Argentina behaved in 1966 ?

    The Guardian says that it was all the Europeans' fault.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Alistair said:

    Book the lot of them

    Yup. Can’t see this match finishing with 22 men on the pitch.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Is Harry Kane really going to get SPOTY for scoring a few penalties?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,296
    I’d stick Rashford on now and tell him to sit on the half way line. That would keep a few home.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,601
    tlg86 said:

    Is Harry Kane really going to get SPOTY for scoring a few penalties?

    Perhaps for keeping his head while all around lose theirs ?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Referee's had enough of Colombian's arguing with him.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,296
    Columbia must have men sent off at this rate
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Blatant dive from Maguire...
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Quintana vs Froome is going to be interesting at this rate.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082
    Its going to be two each.

    Two goals for England and two sent off for Colombia.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    This shithousery was what I was expecting to happen in the Portugal v Uruguay match.

    I left Old Trafford between innings.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    tlg86 said:

    Is Harry Kane really going to get SPOTY for scoring a few penalties?

    Froome won't win Spoty even though he probably should if he wins the Tour again
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082
    DavidL said:

    I’d stick Rashford on now and tell him to sit on the half way line. That would keep a few home.

    Rashford's an impact player and that's what England need now to exploit Colombia losing their rag.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Depressing to see England players stooping to Colombia's level.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So the SNP are keeping calling votes.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082
    Utterly imbecilic play from Lingard gets him a yellow card.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,296
    Alistair said:

    So the SNP are keeping calling votes.

    Hardly matters with i player available but they are childish
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This shithousery was what I was expecting to happen in the Portugal v Uruguay match.

    I left Old Trafford between innings.

    England are 300 on Betfair and there’s still seven overs left!
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082
    England need Rashford now - the Colombia defence is tiring and half their players have yellow cards.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    On SPOTY, Linekar didn't make the top 3 in 1986. He was beaten by Mansell, Whitbread and Dalglish.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    Alistair said:

    So the SNP are keeping calling votes.

    Childish moves like this will turn people against the SNP.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Diving twat in red alert.

    Should have kept going mate, you could have got that.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,296
    another_richard said:

    England need Rashford now - the Colombia defence is tiring and half their players have yellow cards.

    Yep give him the ball and get him to run at them. England need another goal.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    So the SNP are keeping calling votes.

    Childish moves like this will turn people against the SNP.
    The clerks of the house in particular :p
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,944
    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    So the SNP are keeping calling votes.

    Childish moves like this will turn people against the SNP.
    Nah. No one outside Parliament and PB will ever notice. And given that 90% of Scotland are currently backing Columbia and they are the only constituency the SNP need to worry about I suspect it will do them no harm at all.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    To be fair to Kane, his all round game is very good and he is working very hard. He doesn't want to over do it, mind.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    So the SNP are keeping calling votes.

    Childish moves like this will turn people against the SNP.
    The clerks of the house in particular :p
    The walk out had no effect either; the public don't like childishness. It makes knaves out of those fools who practice it.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    tlg86 said:

    On SPOTY, Linekar didn't make the top 3 in 1986. He was beaten by Mansell, Whitbread and Dalglish.

    World champion, world champion and FA cup winning captain respectively.

    It’s an award for winners, not semi-finalists.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    I think we will beat Sweden, Croatia an even match.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Why is Dier coming on?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,296
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    So the SNP are keeping calling votes.

    Childish moves like this will turn people against the SNP.
    Nah. No one outside Parliament and PB will ever notice. And given that 90% of Scotland are currently backing Columbia and they are the only constituency the SNP need to worry about I suspect it will do them no harm at all.
    Sitting in a pub in Paisley (I get all the high spots). Everyone backing England with varying degrees of enthusiasm.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Omg he fucked it.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    So the SNP are keeping calling votes.

    Childish moves like this will turn people against the SNP.
    Nah. No one outside Parliament and PB will ever notice. And given that 90% of Scotland are currently backing Columbia and they are the only constituency the SNP need to worry about I suspect it will do them no harm at all.
    I've never understood this anyone but England mentality.

    Everyone I know always supports all the home nations....
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,296
    What a miss by Columbia
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    On SPOTY, Linekar didn't make the top 3 in 1986. He was beaten by Mansell, Whitbread and Dalglish.

    World champion, world champion and FA cup winning captain respectively.

    It’s an award for winners, not semi-finalists.
    Mansell did not win it in 1986...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    On SPOTY, Linekar didn't make the top 3 in 1986. He was beaten by Mansell, Whitbread and Dalglish.

    World champion, world champion and FA cup winning captain respectively.

    It’s an award for winners, not semi-finalists.
    Mansell wasn't world champion in 1986, unlucky loser.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Touch of an elephant.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    That, right there is why Columbia needed James.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1014233166138281985
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    So the SNP are keeping calling votes.

    Childish moves like this will turn people against the SNP.
    Surprised they didn’t all turn up wearing Columbia shirts.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    Red card!!!!!

    That should be a Red Card!!!
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082
    England are extremely fortunate that they were gifted a penalty.

    They've become increasing unimpressive as this half has gone on.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    edited July 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1014233166138281985

    The power of Christ compels them!
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    On SPOTY, Linekar didn't make the top 3 in 1986. He was beaten by Mansell, Whitbread and Dalglish.

    World champion, world champion and FA cup winning captain respectively.

    It’s an award for winners, not semi-finalists.
    Mansell wasn't world champion in 1986, unlucky loser.
    Damn you’re right, that was the year his tyre exploded at the last race in Adelaide.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,296
    Hanging on here
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    another_richard said:

    England are extremely fortunate that they were gifted a penalty.

    They've become increasing unimpressive as this half has gone on.

    They've played like a team 1 mistake from disaster and almost blew it but the Colombian skyed his chance.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,296
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    On SPOTY, Linekar didn't make the top 3 in 1986. He was beaten by Mansell, Whitbread and Dalglish.

    World champion, world champion and FA cup winning captain respectively.

    It’s an award for winners, not semi-finalists.
    Mansell wasn't world champion in 1986, unlucky loser.
    Damn you’re right, that was the year his tyre exploded at the last race in Adelaide.
    Had a cracking tashe though.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Come on England, ITV are desperate to end the show with Kirsty MacColl.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,296
    Kane man of match
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,944
    DavidL said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    So the SNP are keeping calling votes.

    Childish moves like this will turn people against the SNP.
    Nah. No one outside Parliament and PB will ever notice. And given that 90% of Scotland are currently backing Columbia and they are the only constituency the SNP need to worry about I suspect it will do them no harm at all.
    Sitting in a pub in Paisley (I get all the high spots). Everyone backing England with varying degrees of enthusiasm.
    I am working in an Aberdeen office this week with about 20% English to 80% Scots. There is not a single Scot supporting England.

    Actually there is one. A great bloke in his early 60s who wants England to go all the way because he thinks it will increase the support for Scottish independence because of the way England will react.

    Reading that back when I say he is a great bloke I really mean it. But he is also a pragmatist
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,296
    What a save
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Adding five minutes because the Colombians spent that long protesting the penalty?
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,613
    FFS
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,296
    Nooooooooool
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,296
    That’s been coming
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2018
    That free kick should have been 10 yards further back, the one taken by the Colombian goalkeeper.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Not to Stoke a stereotype or anything but when Colombia scored that goal there was cheers out in the street here in Edinburgh.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    So looks like extra time
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Here we go...

    Good job I took my profit at 1.24...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Sandpit said:

    Adding five minutes because the Colombians spent that long protesting the penalty?

    Well if a penalty takes 4 minutes, you need to add 5
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Kane man of match

    He has been superb. Has been fouled so many times
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082
    P45 for Gareth Southgate seems imminent.

    Should have put Rashford on.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    another_richard said:

    P45 for Gareth Southgate seems imminent.

    Should have put Rashford on.

    I do not understand subbing on Dier.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Groin strain due to celebrating, what a plonker
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Pulpstar said:

    Groin strain due to celebrating, what a plonker

    LOL.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Southgate earns his corn here. England heads completely gone.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082
    According to the BBC England have had two shots on target.

    I assume the penalty was one of them.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Right so we've taken off our best penalty taker...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Alistair said:

    Not to Stoke a stereotype or anything but when Colombia scored that goal there was cheers out in the street here in Edinburgh.

    Thanks for letting us know.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082
    Alistair said:

    Southgate earns his corn here. England heads completely gone.

    Southgate's head is completely gone.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082
    Alistair said:

    another_richard said:

    P45 for Gareth Southgate seems imminent.

    Should have put Rashford on.

    I do not understand subbing on Dier.
    He was trying to negatively hold the lead and lost England the momentum they had.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    another_richard said:

    According to the BBC England have had two shots on target.

    I assume the penalty was one of them.

    Hubris from Southgate taking Kane off, obviously looking ahead to the next game. Sterling for someone else would have been the move if he was solely focussing on shoring up.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    England allowed Colombia's style of play to affect them mentally. They shouldn't have.
This discussion has been closed.