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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: UK Property wealth could rest on Castles of

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited July 5 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: UK Property wealth could rest on Castles of Sand

Only in the UK is the phrase “property porn” a real thing. Home prices dominate polite conversation. And little wonder: housing dominates UK personal balances sheets. In no other country does it make up such an enormous share of assets. Why? Because UK property has outperformed that in other developed countries in the last 38 years. This video asks why that is, and asks if the UK property wealth rests in castles of sand.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,905
    First? Or is vanilla playing sill whatsits again!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,813
    edited July 5
    Could Brexit be the trigger for a reset in UK real estate. It certainly gives political cover to future govts.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,240
    There certainly needs to be an adjustment in certain area's- London, and probably not great in my case SE England.

    but if the population and need for houses keeps ever growing, and as long as theres not a crash in the economy as a whole then i can't see a proper downwards trend.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,886
    edited July 5
    I am not sure some other developed countries are so far behind the UK in having large-scale assets based on property wealth.

    Australia, New Zealand and Belgium for example have higher mean and median net wealth per person, including real estate property, than the UK

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    HYUFD said:

    I am not sure some other developed countries are so far behind the UK in having large-scale assets based on property wealth.

    Australia, New Zealand and Belgium for example have higher mean and median net wealth per person, including real estate property, than the UK

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult

    It's unlikely there will be a crash as matters stand. Morgan Kelly warned of trouble in Ireland when mortgage rates disconnected from values, especially rent values. We're a long way off that - it would cost me double to rent an equivalent house - although that may also be a sign of a broken rental market as well as super-low interest rates.

    However, a slowdown seems possible. A slight contraction in the Cotswolds coupled with a spike in Cannock would suit me nicely.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,886
    edited July 5
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am not sure some other developed countries are so far behind the UK in having large-scale assets based on property wealth.

    Australia, New Zealand and Belgium for example have higher mean and median net wealth per person, including real estate property, than the UK

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult

    It's unlikely there will be a crash as matters stand. Morgan Kelly warned of trouble in Ireland when mortgage rates disconnected from values, especially rent values. We're a long way off that - it would cost me double to rent an equivalent house - although that may also be a sign of a broken rental market as well as super-low interest rates.

    However, a slowdown seems possible. A slight contraction in the Cotswolds coupled with a spike in Cannock would suit me nicely.
    Your last sentence seems sensible, presently London house prices are almost four times those in the North East of England for example. There is a vast difference between property prices in London and the most prosperous parts of southern England and the London commuter belt and the rest of the UK
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,013
    As always, a danger is that markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent, as John Maynard Keynes so rightly said. The effect is more likely to be a slowly deflating balloon than a pop. Indeed, the air is coming out of the market already.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,240

    As always, a danger is that markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent, as John Maynard Keynes so rightly said. The effect is more likely to be a slowly deflating balloon than a pop. Indeed, the air is coming out of the market already.

    Indeed. It doesn't seem that much is moving in my area, and given that I moved house two years ago, I would be very wary of getting more for my property now than I paid then.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,013
    Markets can crash though. Here's a chart of Belfast property prices in the last 10 years:

    https://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?location=belfast&all=1

    I expect @Sandpit can find a chart of Kyiv property prices in the same period. That would be even more hair-raising.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,813
    HYUFD said:

    I am not sure some other developed countries are so far behind the UK in having large-scale assets based on property wealth.

    Australia, New Zealand and Belgium for example have higher mean and median net wealth per person, including real estate property, than the UK

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult

    The difference between the median and mean tables is striking.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,141
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am not sure some other developed countries are so far behind the UK in having large-scale assets based on property wealth.

    Australia, New Zealand and Belgium for example have higher mean and median net wealth per person, including real estate property, than the UK

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult

    It's unlikely there will be a crash as matters stand. Morgan Kelly warned of trouble in Ireland when mortgage rates disconnected from values, especially rent values. We're a long way off that - it would cost me double to rent an equivalent house - although that may also be a sign of a broken rental market as well as super-low interest rates.

    However, a slowdown seems possible. A slight contraction in the Cotswolds coupled with a spike in Cannock would suit me nicely.
    The rental market is broken insofar as the benefits system puts a floor under rent levels and provides a subsidy to landlords.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,886
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am not sure some other developed countries are so far behind the UK in having large-scale assets based on property wealth.

    Australia, New Zealand and Belgium for example have higher mean and median net wealth per person, including real estate property, than the UK

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult

    The difference between the median and mean tables is striking.
    Especially in the USA
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,760
    edited July 5

    Markets can crash though. Here's a chart of Belfast property prices in the last 10 years:

    https://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?location=belfast&all=1

    I expect @Sandpit can find a chart of Kyiv property prices in the same period. That would be even more hair-raising.

    That’s a challenge, will take a look. Huge currency variations in the last few years in Ukraine. Was 7 HYR to the US$ before Russia and Ukraine fell out, now it’s 26/$. Prices in dollars have probably fallen slightly as property became completely unaffordable in local currency.

    We recently bought a new apartment 1,000sq ft just outside Kiev for $60k, in the centre would be around $80k. In the payment plan agreement with the developer was a clause that basically that the price is set in US dollars, and they have the right to adjust the price later if the exchange rate changes before the payments are complete. Doesn’t bother me too much as my income is mostly in US$ or Sterling, but to a Ukrainian that might be a scary prospect.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,120

    As always, a danger is that markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent, as John Maynard Keynes so rightly said. The effect is more likely to be a slowly deflating balloon than a pop. Indeed, the air is coming out of the market already.

    That's a fantastic quote. I'd say with housing it might actually be more like "markets can remain irrational for longer than you can put up living with your parents."

    But I agree that the market could deflate slowly. There's a bungalow near me that's been on the market for £535,000 for ages. This week they've dropped that to £479,950. Still overpriced, mind.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,762
    Sandpit said:

    Markets can crash though. Here's a chart of Belfast property prices in the last 10 years:

    https://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?location=belfast&all=1

    I expect @Sandpit can find a chart of Kyiv property prices in the same period. That would be even more hair-raising.

    That’s a challenge, will take a look. Huge currency variations in the last few years in Ukraine. Was 7 HYR to the US$ before Russia and Ukraine fell out, now it’s 26/$. Prices in dollars have probably fallen slightly as property became completely unaffordable in local currency.

    We recently bought a new apartment 1,000sq ft just outside Kiev for $60k, in the centre would be around $80k. In the payment plan agreement with the developer was a clause that basically that the price is set in US dollars, and they have the right to adjust the price later if the exchange rate changes before the payments are complete. Doesn’t bother me too much as my income is mostly in US$ or Sterling, but to a Ukrainian that might be a scary prospect.
    We moved recently, for our 310k we got:
    ~320 m^2 back garden
    ~140 m^2 front garden & drive
    ~170 m^2 of house
    Double garage, two lofts
    Solar panels and a nice view over fields to the back.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,760
    edited July 5
    Property in Dubai is another interesting case study.

    Annual inflation in 2004-2008 was around 100% and speculation was rife, properties being flipped in 3 months for 30% profits etc, mostly off-plan.

    At the time of the crash the bottom fell out of the market overnight and lots of people were left holding properties worth less than half what they’d just paid, or worse still in an uncompleted building that was severely delayed. A couple of developers even went under.

    Since about 2010 prices rose an annual 10% for a few years and are now stable at about the same level they were at the time of the crash, falling maybe 10% in the last couple of years as supply increases.

    A bit of a roller coaster, but as always with property it’s a good investment providing you never need to sell.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,896
    My policy has always been buy to live - I'm not super rich but I've loved all my homes. I'd like most people to get a similar chance.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,478
    As I've said recently, the London housing market is well down from its peak. I asked for and got a 15% discount from the asking price for my place, I know people are getting at least 10% off in most cases at the moment.

    Hopefully this helps increase home ownership rates, especially in the capital.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,492
    FPT

    Independence and sovereignty are not the same.

    Independence is about freedom of action, which we manifestly don’t have on a host of policy areas as part of the EU. Sovereignty is about supreme authority, and while of course EU members retain sovereignty de jure by virtue of their right to withdraw from the EU under Article 50, members of the Eurozone have forfeited sovereignty de facto because they could only do so at the cost of blowing up their economies.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,499
    MaxPB said:

    As I've said recently, the London housing market is well down from its peak. I asked for and got a 15% discount from the asking price for my place, I know people are getting at least 10% off in most cases at the moment.

    Hopefully this helps increase home ownership rates, especially in the capital.

    Hasn't getting a discount on the asking price always been fairly standard?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,760

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am not sure some other developed countries are so far behind the UK in having large-scale assets based on property wealth.

    Australia, New Zealand and Belgium for example have higher mean and median net wealth per person, including real estate property, than the UK

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult

    It's unlikely there will be a crash as matters stand. Morgan Kelly warned of trouble in Ireland when mortgage rates disconnected from values, especially rent values. We're a long way off that - it would cost me double to rent an equivalent house - although that may also be a sign of a broken rental market as well as super-low interest rates.

    However, a slowdown seems possible. A slight contraction in the Cotswolds coupled with a spike in Cannock would suit me nicely.
    The rental market is broken insofar as the benefits system puts a floor under rent levels and provides a subsidy to landlords.
    Absolutely, and especially so in London. If the government were to cut housing benefit payments 10% most landlords would just eat the cut and it would save billions.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 2,233
    Brexit - I've been reading comments on my MP's Facebook feed and it seems abundantly clear how leave voters feel about the practicalities of the situation - they don't care.

    If no deal crash Brexit happens - and unless we agree to EEA it will - at which point do the people screaming traitor at MPs turn around and scream about the impacts of what they have loudly been demanding? I'd hate to be an MP right now...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,478
    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    As I've said recently, the London housing market is well down from its peak. I asked for and got a 15% discount from the asking price for my place, I know people are getting at least 10% off in most cases at the moment.

    Hopefully this helps increase home ownership rates, especially in the capital.

    Hasn't getting a discount on the asking price always been fairly standard?
    Until recently gazumping was the issue, so no.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,492
    MaxPB said:

    As I've said recently, the London housing market is well down from its peak. I asked for and got a 15% discount from the asking price for my place, I know people are getting at least 10% off in most cases at the moment.

    Hopefully this helps increase home ownership rates, especially in the capital.

    You won’t get a 15% discount in suburbia. We are certainly plateauing or seeing small declines, but nothing as serious as in inner London.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,687
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am not sure some other developed countries are so far behind the UK in having large-scale assets based on property wealth.

    Australia, New Zealand and Belgium for example have higher mean and median net wealth per person, including real estate property, than the UK

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult

    It's unlikely there will be a crash as matters stand. Morgan Kelly warned of trouble in Ireland when mortgage rates disconnected from values, especially rent values. We're a long way off that - it would cost me double to rent an equivalent house - although that may also be a sign of a broken rental market as well as super-low interest rates.

    However, a slowdown seems possible. A slight contraction in the Cotswolds coupled with a spike in Cannock would suit me nicely.
    The rental market is broken insofar as the benefits system puts a floor under rent levels and provides a subsidy to landlords.
    Absolutely, and especially so in London. If the government were to cut housing benefit payments 10% most landlords would just eat the cut and it would save billions.
    Can you see this Coservative government doing that? I mean, actually cutting benefits for private landlords?
  • NormNorm Posts: 852
    Interesting - looking forward to part 2.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,492
    PClipp said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am not sure some other developed countries are so far behind the UK in having large-scale assets based on property wealth.

    Australia, New Zealand and Belgium for example have higher mean and median net wealth per person, including real estate property, than the UK

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult

    It's unlikely there will be a crash as matters stand. Morgan Kelly warned of trouble in Ireland when mortgage rates disconnected from values, especially rent values. We're a long way off that - it would cost me double to rent an equivalent house - although that may also be a sign of a broken rental market as well as super-low interest rates.

    However, a slowdown seems possible. A slight contraction in the Cotswolds coupled with a spike in Cannock would suit me nicely.
    The rental market is broken insofar as the benefits system puts a floor under rent levels and provides a subsidy to landlords.
    Absolutely, and especially so in London. If the government were to cut housing benefit payments 10% most landlords would just eat the cut and it would save billions.
    Can you see this Coservative government doing that? I mean, actually cutting benefits for private landlords?
    They’ve already taken away some of the tax benefits for BTL. Why not go further?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,478
    PClipp said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am not sure some other developed countries are so far behind the UK in having large-scale assets based on property wealth.

    Australia, New Zealand and Belgium for example have higher mean and median net wealth per person, including real estate property, than the UK

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult

    It's unlikely there will be a crash as matters stand. Morgan Kelly warned of trouble in Ireland when mortgage rates disconnected from values, especially rent values. We're a long way off that - it would cost me double to rent an equivalent house - although that may also be a sign of a broken rental market as well as super-low interest rates.

    However, a slowdown seems possible. A slight contraction in the Cotswolds coupled with a spike in Cannock would suit me nicely.
    The rental market is broken insofar as the benefits system puts a floor under rent levels and provides a subsidy to landlords.
    Absolutely, and especially so in London. If the government were to cut housing benefit payments 10% most landlords would just eat the cut and it would save billions.
    Can you see this Coservative government doing that? I mean, actually cutting benefits for private landlords?
    Yes? It was a conservative government which introduced the 3% stamp duty for additional property and a conservative government that removed higher rate relief as well.

    Belatedly the party had remembered it is in favour of home ownership and steps are being taken to increase it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,938
    Sandpit said:

    Markets can crash though. Here's a chart of Belfast property prices in the last 10 years:

    https://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?location=belfast&all=1

    I expect @Sandpit can find a chart of Kyiv property prices in the same period. That would be even more hair-raising.

    That’s a challenge, will take a look. Huge currency variations in the last few years in Ukraine. Was 7 HYR to the US$ before Russia and Ukraine fell out, now it’s 26/$. Prices in dollars have probably fallen slightly as property became completely unaffordable in local currency.

    We recently bought a new apartment 1,000sq ft just outside Kiev for $60k, in the centre would be around $80k. In the payment plan agreement with the developer was a clause that basically that the price is set in US dollars, and they have the right to adjust the price later if the exchange rate changes before the payments are complete. Doesn’t bother me too much as my income is mostly in US$ or Sterling, but to a Ukrainian that might be a scary prospect.
    Buying property in the Ukraine puts the bad neighbor disputes I do my best to avoid into perspective. Very brave.

    On the U.K. market some form of return to the mean is likely but the driving force for London has been foreign money looking for a safe haven. I am not sure that I see that demand falling away although there will obviously be peaks and troughs. I think that London will continue to out perform the rest of the U.K. for good or ill and the price differential is unlikely to shrink.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,257
    Norm said:

    Interesting - looking forward to part 2.

    I thought it was brilliant. Best exposition of the drivers of house prices that I have seen or read. Like you, I'm looking forward to part 2.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,938
    PClipp said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am not sure some other developed countries are so far behind the UK in having large-scale assets based on property wealth.

    Australia, New Zealand and Belgium for example have higher mean and median net wealth per person, including real estate property, than the UK

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult

    It's unlikely there will be a crash as matters stand. Morgan Kelly warned of trouble in Ireland when mortgage rates disconnected from values, especially rent values. We're a long way off that - it would cost me double to rent an equivalent house - although that may also be a sign of a broken rental market as well as super-low interest rates.

    However, a slowdown seems possible. A slight contraction in the Cotswolds coupled with a spike in Cannock would suit me nicely.
    The rental market is broken insofar as the benefits system puts a floor under rent levels and provides a subsidy to landlords.
    Absolutely, and especially so in London. If the government were to cut housing benefit payments 10% most landlords would just eat the cut and it would save billions.
    Can you see this Coservative government doing that? I mean, actually cutting benefits for private landlords?
    They effectively have by changing the maximum HB that can be claimed and a benefit freeze. But more needs to be done. The high returns on rents is why buying is so expensive.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,492
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Markets can crash though. Here's a chart of Belfast property prices in the last 10 years:

    https://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?location=belfast&all=1

    I expect @Sandpit can find a chart of Kyiv property prices in the same period. That would be even more hair-raising.

    That’s a challenge, will take a look. Huge currency variations in the last few years in Ukraine. Was 7 HYR to the US$ before Russia and Ukraine fell out, now it’s 26/$. Prices in dollars have probably fallen slightly as property became completely unaffordable in local currency.

    We recently bought a new apartment 1,000sq ft just outside Kiev for $60k, in the centre would be around $80k. In the payment plan agreement with the developer was a clause that basically that the price is set in US dollars, and they have the right to adjust the price later if the exchange rate changes before the payments are complete. Doesn’t bother me too much as my income is mostly in US$ or Sterling, but to a Ukrainian that might be a scary prospect.
    Buying property in the Ukraine puts the bad neighbor disputes I do my best to avoid into perspective. Very brave.

    On the U.K. market some form of return to the mean is likely but the driving force for London has been foreign money looking for a safe haven. I am not sure that I see that demand falling away although there will obviously be peaks and troughs. I think that London will continue to out perform the rest of the U.K. for good or ill and the price differential is unlikely to shrink.
    People forget that before the industrial revolution, the South was always wealthier than the North. You can see it plainly in the rents due to the dioceses that fall under Canterbury vs York in the Middle Ages. That was built on agricultural productivity, which was superseded in importance by proximity to coal, iron, and the industries that grew up around them.

    Now, it’s about agglomeration benefits and airports, which is why cancelling Transpennine electrification is so moronic.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 1,625
    I paid £203,500 for my house in 2005. It's currently valued at £218,000.

    4-bed detached. Rural, leafy, in a cul de sac, opposite a park and facing the beautiful Welsh hills.

    South Wales = Sensible.

    London = MENTAL.
  • New Zealand has a 2 tier market. In Auckland, it has been booming for a number of years (although may be starting to level out), while in the rest of the country prices are still very reasonable. Certainly in the more rural areas you can get a nice plot of land and self-build.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,265
    edited July 5
    Fenster said:

    I paid £203,500 for my house in 2005. It's currently valued at £218,000.

    4-bed detached. Rural, leafy, in a cul de sac, opposite a park and facing the beautiful Welsh hills.

    South Wales = Sensible.

    London = MENTAL.

    We sold our 2 bed mid terrace in Leytonstone for £287,500 in 2008 and bought a 4 bed detached house in Sittingbourne for 245,000. We thought at the time we'd done pretty well.

    The Sittingbourne house is now worth maybe £300,000 at most. Zoopla tells me a 2 bed terrace in our old road in London would fetch £495,000.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,358
    It's the "and talent" bit here that is telling

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320
    Fenster said:

    I paid £203,500 for my house in 2005. It's currently valued at £218,000.

    4-bed detached. Rural, leafy, in a cul de sac, opposite a park and facing the beautiful Welsh hills.

    South Wales = Sensible.

    London = MENTAL.

    You want mental.

    In the last year I was offered a job in London.

    Now a six bedroomed house in Dore costs circa £800,000, like this one.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49625550.html

    A six bedroomed house in London and I was told north of £20 million.

    This one is £23 million.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64903096.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,762

    Fenster said:

    I paid £203,500 for my house in 2005. It's currently valued at £218,000.

    4-bed detached. Rural, leafy, in a cul de sac, opposite a park and facing the beautiful Welsh hills.

    South Wales = Sensible.

    London = MENTAL.

    You want mental.

    In the last year I was offered a job in London.

    Now a six bedroomed house in Dore costs circa £800,000, like this one.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49625550.html

    A six bedroomed house in London and I was told north of £20 million.

    This one is £23 million.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64903096.html
    To be fair to the London house, it has almost 750 m^2 of floor area, so is 3 times the size of the Dore house.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320
    Pulpstar said:

    Fenster said:

    I paid £203,500 for my house in 2005. It's currently valued at £218,000.

    4-bed detached. Rural, leafy, in a cul de sac, opposite a park and facing the beautiful Welsh hills.

    South Wales = Sensible.

    London = MENTAL.

    You want mental.

    In the last year I was offered a job in London.

    Now a six bedroomed house in Dore costs circa £800,000, like this one.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49625550.html

    A six bedroomed house in London and I was told north of £20 million.

    This one is £23 million.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64903096.html
    To be fair to the London house, it has almost 750 m^2 of floor area, so is 3 times the size of the Dore house.
    But not three times the price.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,762

    Pulpstar said:

    Fenster said:

    I paid £203,500 for my house in 2005. It's currently valued at £218,000.

    4-bed detached. Rural, leafy, in a cul de sac, opposite a park and facing the beautiful Welsh hills.

    South Wales = Sensible.

    London = MENTAL.

    You want mental.

    In the last year I was offered a job in London.

    Now a six bedroomed house in Dore costs circa £800,000, like this one.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49625550.html

    A six bedroomed house in London and I was told north of £20 million.

    This one is £23 million.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64903096.html
    To be fair to the London house, it has almost 750 m^2 of floor area, so is 3 times the size of the Dore house.
    But not three times the price.
    We couldn't live in the London house, my other half would be too worried about the cats getting knocked over on the road outside.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,460

    Pulpstar said:

    Fenster said:

    I paid £203,500 for my house in 2005. It's currently valued at £218,000.

    4-bed detached. Rural, leafy, in a cul de sac, opposite a park and facing the beautiful Welsh hills.

    South Wales = Sensible.

    London = MENTAL.

    You want mental.

    In the last year I was offered a job in London.

    Now a six bedroomed house in Dore costs circa £800,000, like this one.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49625550.html

    A six bedroomed house in London and I was told north of £20 million.

    This one is £23 million.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64903096.html
    To be fair to the London house, it has almost 750 m^2 of floor area, so is 3 times the size of the Dore house.
    But not three times the price.
    Although as I'm sure you know, that's not how a market works.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 570

    Brexit - I've been reading comments on my MP's Facebook feed and it seems abundantly clear how leave voters feel about the practicalities of the situation - they don't care.

    Is that all "leave voters", though, or just the minority who've always posted frothing-at-the-mouth comments on MP's pages on Facebook?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,631
    You always know when we're reaching a critical phase as Scott's tweet-share rate goes through the roof! :D
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,151
    We bought a house six years ago, and it's gone up nearly 50% in that time. But like share options, I don't particularly care about that as its not 'money' until we sell - and even then any home we move into will also have increased in price.

    We bought for several reasons: we were lucky enough to have most of the money needed to buy in the bank, with minimal mortgage; we wanted to have children, and I preferred to raise them in a house we owned rather than rented, and I was fed up with constantly moving - on two occasions forced by landlords' situations.

    But most importantly was financial. We were paying a grand a month to rent, and by the time the mortgage and other house-owning expenses are deducted, we probably saved £700 a month as a conservative estimate.

    Over the six years, that amounts to about £50k saved over renting. That is *real* money.

    If rents were more realistic, the housing issues may not be as bad.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320
    edited July 5
    GIN1138 said:

    You always know when we're reaching a critical phase as Scott's tweet-share rate goes through the roof! :D

    Yet few are able to rebut the substance of the tweets which says a lot.

    When you can’t play the ball I guess you have to play the man.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,905

    Pulpstar said:

    Fenster said:

    I paid £203,500 for my house in 2005. It's currently valued at £218,000.

    4-bed detached. Rural, leafy, in a cul de sac, opposite a park and facing the beautiful Welsh hills.

    South Wales = Sensible.

    London = MENTAL.

    You want mental.

    In the last year I was offered a job in London.

    Now a six bedroomed house in Dore costs circa £800,000, like this one.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49625550.html

    A six bedroomed house in London and I was told north of £20 million.

    This one is £23 million.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64903096.html
    To be fair to the London house, it has almost 750 m^2 of floor area, so is 3 times the size of the Dore house.
    But not three times the price.
    And, from the map, Dore looks a very nice place to live.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320

    Pulpstar said:

    Fenster said:

    I paid £203,500 for my house in 2005. It's currently valued at £218,000.

    4-bed detached. Rural, leafy, in a cul de sac, opposite a park and facing the beautiful Welsh hills.

    South Wales = Sensible.

    London = MENTAL.

    You want mental.

    In the last year I was offered a job in London.

    Now a six bedroomed house in Dore costs circa £800,000, like this one.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49625550.html

    A six bedroomed house in London and I was told north of £20 million.

    This one is £23 million.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64903096.html
    To be fair to the London house, it has almost 750 m^2 of floor area, so is 3 times the size of the Dore house.
    But not three times the price.
    And, from the map, Dore looks a very nice place to live.
    Dore is beautiful, it is where the Garden of Eden was located.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,460

    Fenster said:

    I paid £203,500 for my house in 2005. It's currently valued at £218,000.

    4-bed detached. Rural, leafy, in a cul de sac, opposite a park and facing the beautiful Welsh hills.

    South Wales = Sensible.

    London = MENTAL.

    You want mental.

    In the last year I was offered a job in London.

    Now a six bedroomed house in Dore costs circa £800,000, like this one.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49625550.html

    A six bedroomed house in London and I was told north of £20 million.

    This one is £23 million.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64903096.html
    That doesn't surprise me. I got a promoted tweet on my Twitter feed not long ago about some London property site which was advertising a 500ft^2 'flat' at half a million quid. Five hundred square feet is bugger all - a space about 8mx6m - which isn't a flat to me; it's a reasonably large room.

    For that sort of money, you can get a good 5-bed detached in a decent area round here
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 843
    Sandpit said:

    Markets can crash though. Here's a chart of Belfast property prices in the last 10 years:

    https://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?location=belfast&all=1

    I expect @Sandpit can find a chart of Kyiv property prices in the same period. That would be even more hair-raising.

    That’s a challenge, will take a look. Huge currency variations in the last few years in Ukraine. Was 7 HYR to the US$ before Russia and Ukraine fell out, now it’s 26/$. Prices in dollars have probably fallen slightly as property became completely unaffordable in local currency.

    We recently bought a new apartment 1,000sq ft just outside Kiev for $60k, in the centre would be around $80k. In the payment plan agreement with the developer was a clause that basically that the price is set in US dollars, and they have the right to adjust the price later if the exchange rate changes before the payments are complete. Doesn’t bother me too much as my income is mostly in US$ or Sterling, but to a Ukrainian that might be a scary prospect.
    Wow, that's pretty cheap.

    What's Ukraine like as a lifestyle destination for retirement? if you cashed out with close to a million in property from elsewhere would it be a good base to enjoy Europe.

    How's the cost of living ? Has it got good, well priced flights to the rest of europe ?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,513
    This is a very bleak assessment of where we stand:

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,762
    edited July 5

    Fenster said:

    I paid £203,500 for my house in 2005. It's currently valued at £218,000.

    4-bed detached. Rural, leafy, in a cul de sac, opposite a park and facing the beautiful Welsh hills.

    South Wales = Sensible.

    London = MENTAL.

    You want mental.

    In the last year I was offered a job in London.

    Now a six bedroomed house in Dore costs circa £800,000, like this one.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49625550.html

    A six bedroomed house in London and I was told north of £20 million.

    This one is £23 million.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64903096.html
    That doesn't surprise me. I got a promoted tweet on my Twitter feed not long ago about some London property site which was advertising a 500ft^2 'flat' at half a million quid. Five hundred square feet is bugger all - a space about 8mx6m - which isn't a flat to me; it's a reasonably large room.

    For that sort of money, you can get a good 5-bed detached in a decent area round here
    Check this one out:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/property/4609657/kensington-flat-converted-cupboard-west-london-cost/

    182 sq ft luxury flat, rented out for £875 !
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,513

    Brexit - I've been reading comments on my MP's Facebook feed and it seems abundantly clear how leave voters feel about the practicalities of the situation - they don't care.

    If no deal crash Brexit happens - and unless we agree to EEA it will - at which point do the people screaming traitor at MPs turn around and scream about the impacts of what they have loudly been demanding? I'd hate to be an MP right now...

    I return, once again, to one of my favourite quotes:

    "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

    H. L. Mencken
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,905
    edited July 5

    Pulpstar said:

    Fenster said:

    I paid £203,500 for my house in 2005. It's currently valued at £218,000.

    4-bed detached. Rural, leafy, in a cul de sac, opposite a park and facing the beautiful Welsh hills.

    South Wales = Sensible.

    London = MENTAL.

    You want mental.

    In the last year I was offered a job in London.

    Now a six bedroomed house in Dore costs circa £800,000, like this one.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49625550.html

    A six bedroomed house in London and I was told north of £20 million.

    This one is £23 million.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64903096.html
    To be fair to the London house, it has almost 750 m^2 of floor area, so is 3 times the size of the Dore house.
    But not three times the price.
    And, from the map, Dore looks a very nice place to live.
    Dore is beautiful, it is where the Garden of Eden was located.
    Ah , but the language of heaven is yr hen llaith.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320
    Pulpstar said:

    Fenster said:

    I paid £203,500 for my house in 2005. It's currently valued at £218,000.

    4-bed detached. Rural, leafy, in a cul de sac, opposite a park and facing the beautiful Welsh hills.

    South Wales = Sensible.

    London = MENTAL.

    You want mental.

    In the last year I was offered a job in London.

    Now a six bedroomed house in Dore costs circa £800,000, like this one.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49625550.html

    A six bedroomed house in London and I was told north of £20 million.

    This one is £23 million.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64903096.html
    That doesn't surprise me. I got a promoted tweet on my Twitter feed not long ago about some London property site which was advertising a 500ft^2 'flat' at half a million quid. Five hundred square feet is bugger all - a space about 8mx6m - which isn't a flat to me; it's a reasonably large room.

    For that sort of money, you can get a good 5-bed detached in a decent area round here
    Check this one out:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/property/4609657/kensington-flat-converted-cupboard-west-london-cost/

    182 sq ft luxury flat, rented out for £875 !
    That’s smaller than one of my closets.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320

    This is a very bleak assessment of where we stand:

    I’m looking forward to a no deal Brexit, it’ll be worth it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,813
    Sigh. In another universe Remain won, PM Cameron building up to 2020 election. Biggest political issue is who will challenge Osborne to take on LoO Yvette Cooper and whether she can stop John McDonald breaking away.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,760
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Markets can crash though. Here's a chart of Belfast property prices in the last 10 years:

    https://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?location=belfast&all=1

    I expect @Sandpit can find a chart of Kyiv property prices in the same period. That would be even more hair-raising.

    That’s a challenge, will take a look. Huge currency variations in the last few years in Ukraine. Was 7 HYR to the US$ before Russia and Ukraine fell out, now it’s 26/$. Prices in dollars have probably fallen slightly as property became completely unaffordable in local currency.

    We recently bought a new apartment 1,000sq ft just outside Kiev for $60k, in the centre would be around $80k. In the payment plan agreement with the developer was a clause that basically that the price is set in US dollars, and they have the right to adjust the price later if the exchange rate changes before the payments are complete. Doesn’t bother me too much as my income is mostly in US$ or Sterling, but to a Ukrainian that might be a scary prospect.
    Buying property in the Ukraine puts the bad neighbor disputes I do my best to avoid into perspective. Very brave.

    On the U.K. market some form of return to the mean is likely but the driving force for London has been foreign money looking for a safe haven. I am not sure that I see that demand falling away although there will obviously be peaks and troughs. I think that London will continue to out perform the rest of the U.K. for good or ill and the price differential is unlikely to shrink.
    Its not too bad, my wife is Ukrainian and the new place we’ve bought is across the road from the Soviet-era place where the outlaws currently reside. The plan is to get the new place fitted out nicely and move the outlaws into it, then decorate and rent out their old place. The new neighbours are going to be doctors and lawyers, the current neighbours are the retired officers that the father-in-law served with, in the nice part of town.

    Yes, a huge amount of the demand in London is from overseas, and that’s not going to change anytime soon apart from a few dodgy Russians we want to stay away. Britain is well known for being a stable place with very good property rights, and that’s not going to change anytime soon. The number of global wealthy is also going up, and a lot of them would quite like a safe place to stay.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,813
    edited July 5
    PM Cameron won a lot of friends in his rebuke of President Trump. Been leading successful reform agenda in Europe after he won a lot of kudos in his 2016 succes.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,926
    edited July 5
    Mr. Jonathan, Labour let the likes of McDonnell and Corbyn linger on the backbenches, festering away until Miliband reformed the rules and Labour MPs totally failed to understand them. It's almost impossible to imagine, in your scenario, the hard left MPs would be breaking away when they enjoyed so many years on the backbenches, occupying safe seats.

    Edited extra bit: for that matter, we'd be just as divided as a nation as we are now, and some useful idiots would be wibbling about us voting to Remain meant we wanted more of the EU, which would be working to entangle us still further in the bureaucratic empire.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,813
    edited July 5
    Boris Johnson's LBC show is falling in the ratings. Farage meanwhile is doing better on RT. Speaker Gove is happy.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,240
    Jonathan said:

    Boris Johnson's LBC show is falling in the ratings. Farage meanwhile is doing better on RT. Speaker Gove is happy.

    I want to live in this world....

    Actually without Breixt there's a chance Trump might never have won as well.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,813

    Mr. Jonathan, Labour let the likes of McDonnell and Corbyn linger on the backbenches, festering away until Miliband reformed the rules and Labour MPs totally failed to understand them. It's almost impossible to imagine, in your scenario, the hard left MPs would be breaking away when they enjoyed so many years on the backbenches, occupying safe seats.

    Edited extra bit: for that matter, we'd be just as divided as a nation as we are now, and some useful idiots would be wibbling about us voting to Remain meant we wanted more of the EU, which would be working to entangle us still further in the bureaucratic empire.

    After dismal results in the 2017 locals, Corbyn looked increasingly unhappy and out of depth. After a popular appearance at Glastonbury, Yvette Cooper and HillaryBenn launched a successful challenge in the Autumn.
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 137

    Sandpit said:

    Markets can crash though. Here's a chart of Belfast property prices in the last 10 years:

    https://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?location=belfast&all=1

    I expect @Sandpit can find a chart of Kyiv property prices in the same period. That would be even more hair-raising.

    That’s a challenge, will take a look. Huge currency variations in the last few years in Ukraine. Was 7 HYR to the US$ before Russia and Ukraine fell out, now it’s 26/$. Prices in dollars have probably fallen slightly as property became completely unaffordable in local currency.

    We recently bought a new apartment 1,000sq ft just outside Kiev for $60k, in the centre would be around $80k. In the payment plan agreement with the developer was a clause that basically that the price is set in US dollars, and they have the right to adjust the price later if the exchange rate changes before the payments are complete. Doesn’t bother me too much as my income is mostly in US$ or Sterling, but to a Ukrainian that might be a scary prospect.
    Wow, that's pretty cheap.

    What's Ukraine like as a lifestyle destination for retirement? if you cashed out with close to a million in property from elsewhere would it be a good base to enjoy Europe.

    How's the cost of living ? Has it got good, well priced flights to the rest of europe ?

    just sold our summer house in Odesa for $45k US - Ukraine is a fantastic country but you would. e outstandingly naiive to try and live there without having married into a family or having been raised in a soviet state - you just wouldn’t get how everything works - I’ll be there on Saturday and hope to once again be offered tickets to the ballet by the Mayor’s office (soviet era friendships abide)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320
    edited July 5

    Jonathan said:

    Boris Johnson's LBC show is falling in the ratings. Farage meanwhile is doing better on RT. Speaker Gove is happy.

    I want to live in this world....

    Actually without Breixt there's a chance Trump might never have won as well.
    Other way around.

    I know people on both Remain and Leave campaigns that say had Dave held the referendum in June 2017 then we would have voted to Remain.

    Trump in the White House would have made sticking with the EU very attractive.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,926
    Mr. Slackbladder, or we'd be storing up an even bigger explosion for later.

    A prime cause of the referendum result was the failure to have one on Lisbon. Delay would've made things worse.

    It's certainly true the execution of the negotiations has, so far, been somewhere mediocre and terrible. But we're at risk of neglecting to remember why people voted to leave despite almost every advantage being on the other side. The endless triangulation of murmuring sceptical words then committing actions entirely contrary to that couldn't go on. The electorate was and is split with people generally liking the economics, loathing the politics, and coming down for or against the EU based on their reading of how those things balance.

    Right now economics is heading the agenda with businesses warning of disruption. But what if the price of economic stability (or a smooth transition) is ongoing political interference? Or free movement?

    That's a credible outcome, but risks being seen as a slap in the face by the electorate. Those wanting a departure in name only should be aware that will create trench warfare on this subject for years, possibly decades. They may think that's worth it. Or not.

    [And yes, I'd rather have Cameron as PM].
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,813

    Jonathan said:

    Boris Johnson's LBC show is falling in the ratings. Farage meanwhile is doing better on RT. Speaker Gove is happy.

    I want to live in this world....

    Actually without Breixt there's a chance Trump might never have won as well.
    Other way around.

    I know people on both Remain and Leave campaigns that say had Dave held the referendum in June 2017 then we would have voted to Remain.

    Trump in the White House would have made sticking with the EU very attractive.
    The interesting thing is that this counterfactual could still happen. There is a majority in the HoC for a second vote. A determined PM could put it to a vote, go to the country, win and lead reform in Europe.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,033



    What's Ukraine like as a lifestyle destination for retirement? if you cashed out with close to a million in property from elsewhere would it be a good base to enjoy Europe.

    It's one of the few places in Europe you can ride a motorbike without a helmet. It's got that going for it and little else.

    Retirement would be an absolute nightmare if you didn't speak Russian/Ukrainian and merely unpleasant if you did.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,151
    Jonathan said:

    Sigh. In another universe Remain won, PM Cameron building up to 2020 election. Biggest political issue is who will challenge Osborne to take on LoO Yvette Cooper and whether she can stop John McDonald breaking away.

    My own view is that if remain had won, and especially if it had won 52-48, Cameron would not be PM now. UKIP would be higher in the polls than it was pre-referendum, and the Conservative Europhobic nutjobs would have made his position untenable.

    The only thing that might have saved him would have been a large remain victory, e.g. 70-30.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,926
    Mr. Eagles, probably true but the odds on Trump winning were very long. Hard to blame Cameron for not foreseeing it.

    As an aside, I'm reading a book on current events (Liddell Hart's History of the First World War). Quite complicated in Europe. Pesky Germans trying to boss everyone around.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320
    edited July 5

    Mr. Eagles, probably true but the odds on Trump winning were very long. Hard to blame Cameron for not foreseeing it.

    As an aside, I'm reading a book on current events (Liddell Hart's History of the First World War). Quite complicated in Europe. Pesky Germans trying to boss everyone around.



    It is entirely possible due to slightly different events we might have been on the same side as the Germans in WWI.

    Or our positions in the Triple Entente and in the Triple/Quadruple Alliance been swapped.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,926
    Mr. Jonathan, agree on the Commons but that's a very dangerous step to take. Do referendum results only count if they go the way the political class want? That's the message that people will hear.

    A strong result (say 60/40) either way would dampen the impact, but that seems unlikely.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,141
    edited July 5
    GIN1138 said:

    You always know when we're reaching a critical phase as Scott's tweet-share rate goes through the roof! :D

    Brexit is a phony war at the moment as CCHQ astroturfers as well as ardent Leavers and Remainers all wait to hear from Chequers. That's why we sit around here discussing football and where to live.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,494

    GIN1138 said:

    You always know when we're reaching a critical phase as Scott's tweet-share rate goes through the roof! :D

    Brexit is a phony war at the moment as CCHQ astroturfers as well as ardent Leavers and Remainers all wait to hear from Chequers. That's why we sit around here discussing football and where to live.
    And wine.

    But you are right - none of us can quite believe that we might be 48hrs from some kind of defining moment in the whole process.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320
    Still amused at the allegations of the pesky Germans pushing everyone around whilst our Empire that spanned the globe was just doing that.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,813
    edited July 5

    Mr. Jonathan, agree on the Commons but that's a very dangerous step to take. Do referendum results only count if they go the way the political class want? That's the message that people will hear.

    A strong result (say 60/40) either way would dampen the impact, but that seems unlikely.

    We are now in a situation where every route is dangerous. At least this route carries potential upsides.

    A PM can say...

    "We have not been able to negotiate a settlement with EU. We are facing a hard Brexit. I believe that will cause serious harm to the UK economy such that I cannot recommend it or carry that in the Commons. Since this outcome was not foreseen in 2016 and respecting the people's right to decide, I therefore ask the country whether we should proceed with Brexit on this basis."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,926
    edited July 5
    Mr. Eagles, *raises an eyebrow*

    Bismarck was good at diplomatic dealings, regarding us, the French, the Russians and the Ottomans. From the little I've read, it sounds like a lack of external empire was not something that bothered him.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Jonathan, a PM could say that. One suspects May might end up in a battle to remain PM, though.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,905
    Jonathan said:

    Sigh. In another universe Remain won, PM Cameron building up to 2020 election. Biggest political issue is who will challenge Osborne to take on LoO Yvette Cooper and whether she can stop John McDonald breaking away.

    Interesting counterfactual thoughts.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,494
    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, agree on the Commons but that's a very dangerous step to take. Do referendum results only count if they go the way the political class want? That's the message that people will hear.

    A strong result (say 60/40) either way would dampen the impact, but that seems unlikely.

    We are now in a situation where every route is dangerous. At least this route carries potential upsides.

    A PM can say...

    "We have not been able to negotiate a settlement with EU. We are facing a hard Brexit. I believe that will cause serious harm to the UK economy such that I cannot recommend it or carry that in the Commons. Since this outcome was not foreseen in 2016 and respecting the people's right to decides, I therefore ask the country whether we should proceed with Brexit on this basis."
    I just don't think that this flies. People would rightly be outraged (those that give a f&*k that is).

    She could, however, announce the fluffiest of fluffy Brexits and then "endeavour to continue to negotiate for a good deal for the UK" ad infinitum.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 1,286
    Dura_Ace said:



    What's Ukraine like as a lifestyle destination for retirement? if you cashed out with close to a million in property from elsewhere would it be a good base to enjoy Europe.

    It's one of the few places in Europe you can ride a motorbike without a helmet. It's got that going for it and little else.

    Retirement would be an absolute nightmare if you didn't speak Russian/Ukrainian and merely unpleasant if you did.
    Lol. People do seem to underestimate the practical difficulties of living in a culture other than their own, bewitched by the economics of a western income and second/third world prices. It's all fine and dandy until you want education for your kids, hospital treatment or just an evening out with like-minded folk!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,755

    Fenster said:

    I paid £203,500 for my house in 2005. It's currently valued at £218,000.

    4-bed detached. Rural, leafy, in a cul de sac, opposite a park and facing the beautiful Welsh hills.

    South Wales = Sensible.

    London = MENTAL.

    You want mental.

    In the last year I was offered a job in London.

    Now a six bedroomed house in Dore costs circa £800,000, like this one.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49625550.html

    A six bedroomed house in London and I was told north of £20 million.

    This one is £23 million.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64903096.html
    That doesn't surprise me. I got a promoted tweet on my Twitter feed not long ago about some London property site which was advertising a 500ft^2 'flat' at half a million quid. Five hundred square feet is bugger all - a space about 8mx6m - which isn't a flat to me; it's a reasonably large room.

    For that sort of money, you can get a good 5-bed detached in a decent area round here
    Even in prime central Edinburgh which has insane property prices half a million quid would get you a spacious 4 bed with a garden.
  • NormNorm Posts: 852
    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    You always know when we're reaching a critical phase as Scott's tweet-share rate goes through the roof! :D

    Brexit is a phony war at the moment as CCHQ astroturfers as well as ardent Leavers and Remainers all wait to hear from Chequers. That's why we sit around here discussing football and where to live.
    And wine.

    But you are right - none of us can quite believe that we might be 48hrs from some kind of defining moment in the whole process.
    Or not lol.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,478
    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    You always know when we're reaching a critical phase as Scott's tweet-share rate goes through the roof! :D

    Brexit is a phony war at the moment as CCHQ astroturfers as well as ardent Leavers and Remainers all wait to hear from Chequers. That's why we sit around here discussing football and where to live.
    And wine.

    But you are right - none of us can quite believe that we might be 48hrs from some kind of defining moment in the whole process.
    Surely you mean 48hrs from the can being kicked down the road again and Davis not resigning?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,492
    edited July 5
    Ukraine’s GDP per capita is around $2,600, sandwiched between Honduras and Laos.

    I think you’d be absolutely mad to retire there by choice, considering the alternatives available.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,905

    Still amused at the allegations of the pesky Germans pushing everyone around whilst our Empire that spanned the globe was just doing that.

    It was all Edward VII’s fault; cosying up to the French. You’d think he’d have been more sympathetic to his Prussian nephew than a lot of regicides.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,729
    Thanks Richard.

    I'm looking to buy now and while prices around here are really not too bad the devil is in the detail. I could easily afford a nice house but I'm not sure about the area and I only really need a flat as a singleton. Seemed like there were plenty of affordable flats till I started hearing about the service charges and leasehold rules.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,811
    edited July 5
    Great video, Robert. Affordability of repayments (and its interaction with interest rates) seems to me to be the biggest driver of price movements - I love this chart:


    The demographic changes to come will be fascinating as well. So much of our politics is tied up with the sheer size of the baby-boomer cohort and all of the distorting effects that has had.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,879
    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    You always know when we're reaching a critical phase as Scott's tweet-share rate goes through the roof! :D

    Brexit is a phony war at the moment as CCHQ astroturfers as well as ardent Leavers and Remainers all wait to hear from Chequers. That's why we sit around here discussing football and where to live.
    And wine.

    But you are right - none of us can quite believe that we might be 48hrs from some kind of defining moment in the whole process.
    Morning all.

    Glad the weather has cooled for a bit and my garden has received some much needed rain.

    I find it hard to believe that this Chequers away day will be any sort of defining moment. I may well be wrong but it seems to me that the only options are to stay in the SM/CU for now (under some sort of extended transition period) while we work out what the hell we want (something we should have done before triggering Article 50 but there we go....) or a no-deal crash Brexit, which will likely topple the government and bring on a recession.

    I personally don't have any issues with FoM from the EU so would much prefer the former, given where we are.

    Certainly, if the Tories fall for the snake oil being peddled by the likes of JRM and other hard Brexiteers then they deserve to be slaughtered at the next election. If the Tories don't stand for some minimum level of economic competence, what the hell is their USP? And if they're going to "F*** Business" we may as well have Corbyn. (Not that I would ever vote for him. But my vote no longer counts in my constituency, sadly.)

    I would have so much preferred it - though I realise this is utter pie in the sky - if we could have gone back to the EU after the referendum vote and tried to find a mutually acceptable solution rather than this pointless and harmful rupture. Ah, dreams, dreams.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,762
    Alistair said:

    Fenster said:

    I paid £203,500 for my house in 2005. It's currently valued at £218,000.

    4-bed detached. Rural, leafy, in a cul de sac, opposite a park and facing the beautiful Welsh hills.

    South Wales = Sensible.

    London = MENTAL.

    You want mental.

    In the last year I was offered a job in London.

    Now a six bedroomed house in Dore costs circa £800,000, like this one.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49625550.html

    A six bedroomed house in London and I was told north of £20 million.

    This one is £23 million.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64903096.html
    That doesn't surprise me. I got a promoted tweet on my Twitter feed not long ago about some London property site which was advertising a 500ft^2 'flat' at half a million quid. Five hundred square feet is bugger all - a space about 8mx6m - which isn't a flat to me; it's a reasonably large room.

    For that sort of money, you can get a good 5-bed detached in a decent area round here
    Even in prime central Edinburgh which has insane property prices half a million quid would get you a spacious 4 bed with a garden.
    If I'd had had to move to Edinburgh for any reason I'd have probably gone for something like this:

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-53423040.html
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,444

    Thanks Richard.

    I'm looking to buy now and while prices around here are really not too bad the devil is in the detail. I could easily afford a nice house but I'm not sure about the area and I only really need a flat as a singleton. Seemed like there were plenty of affordable flats till I started hearing about the service charges and leasehold rules.

    Yes , I have always avoided flats because of service charges and leasehold rules.

    You have no control on what your outgoings may be in the long run.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,811
    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    You always know when we're reaching a critical phase as Scott's tweet-share rate goes through the roof! :D

    Brexit is a phony war at the moment as CCHQ astroturfers as well as ardent Leavers and Remainers all wait to hear from Chequers. That's why we sit around here discussing football and where to live.
    And wine.

    But you are right - none of us can quite believe that we might be 48hrs from some kind of defining moment in the whole process.
    Everyone seems to know the score
    They've seen it all before
    They just know, they're so sure
    The EU's gonna blow us away, gonna make us all pay
    Or they'll force us to stay
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,551

    Still amused at the allegations of the pesky Germans pushing everyone around whilst our Empire that spanned the globe was just doing that.

    It was all Edward VII’s fault; cosying up to the French. You’d think he’d have been more sympathetic to his Prussian nephew than a lot of regicides.
    really we should just have let the germans get on with it.

    we'd have had the same Europe as today but with 100 million more people alive

    who would miss Luxemburg or Belgium ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,755
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Fenster said:

    I paid £203,500 for my house in 2005. It's currently valued at £218,000.

    4-bed detached. Rural, leafy, in a cul de sac, opposite a park and facing the beautiful Welsh hills.

    South Wales = Sensible.

    London = MENTAL.

    You want mental.

    In the last year I was offered a job in London.

    Now a six bedroomed house in Dore costs circa £800,000, like this one.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49625550.html

    A six bedroomed house in London and I was told north of £20 million.

    This one is £23 million.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64903096.html
    That doesn't surprise me. I got a promoted tweet on my Twitter feed not long ago about some London property site which was advertising a 500ft^2 'flat' at half a million quid. Five hundred square feet is bugger all - a space about 8mx6m - which isn't a flat to me; it's a reasonably large room.

    For that sort of money, you can get a good 5-bed detached in a decent area round here
    Even in prime central Edinburgh which has insane property prices half a million quid would get you a spacious 4 bed with a garden.
    If I'd had had to move to Edinburgh for any reason I'd have probably gone for something like this:

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-53423040.html
    That's barely in Edinburgh! Could do a lot better than that for the money if you are happy being that far out.

    Remember that's offers over so add 10% to that price
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,494
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    You always know when we're reaching a critical phase as Scott's tweet-share rate goes through the roof! :D

    Brexit is a phony war at the moment as CCHQ astroturfers as well as ardent Leavers and Remainers all wait to hear from Chequers. That's why we sit around here discussing football and where to live.
    And wine.

    But you are right - none of us can quite believe that we might be 48hrs from some kind of defining moment in the whole process.
    Surely you mean 48hrs from the can being kicked down the road again and Davis not resigning?
    Well yes of course. We are in the get on the bus phase. And I fully expect us to be wholly off the bus by Monday.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,693
    Mr Dancer,

    "Do referendum results only count if they go the way the political class want? That's the message that people will hear."

    That's exactly what they would assume. Democracy is only allowed if we vote the right way. It wouldn't finish well.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,551
    despite all the headline grabbing, Macron's popularity has started to fall off a cliff in latest polls. French sentiment seems to be accusing him of being a rich man's president.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2018/07/05/01002-20180705ARTFIG00096-sondage-severe-avertissement-pour-emmanuel-macron.php
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 29,807
    Good to see Labour are serious about discipline...

    The person elected to chair Labour’s disciplinary panels defended the expelled Marc Wadsworth in an interview on Russia Today, Guido can reveal. Claudia Webbe was appointed as Labour’s new head of disputes this week, four months after Christine Shawcroft resigned from the role after she sent an email backing a suspended alleged Holocaust denier.

    https://order-order.com/2018/07/05/labours-new-head-of-disputes-backed-expelled-marc-wadsworth/
This discussion has been closed.