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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If some of the threats we are hearing are carried out then the

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited July 5 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If some of the threats we are hearing are carried out then the cabinet could look very different after the weekend

I have a long history of getting bets on the next cabinet exit wrong and of losing a fair bit of money over the years. So I’m reluctant to enter this market at the moment giving all the talk we have been getting today ahead of tomorrow’s critical cabinet meeting at Chequers on the UK’s Brexit policy.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,120
    First out the blocks.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320
    If Esther McVey had any sense of shame or decency she'd quit now.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,120

    If Esther McVey had any sense of shame or decency she'd quit now.

    Irritating isn't it? I'm still smarting from David Gauke not resigning and missing out on the Rudd bet.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    If Esther McVey had any sense of shame or decency she'd quit now.

    Maybe you should email her and let her know how much you'll win if she did. I'm sure that'd help her see sense.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320
    tlg86 said:

    If Esther McVey had any sense of shame or decency she'd quit now.

    Irritating isn't it? I'm still smarting from David Gauke not resigning and missing out on the Rudd bet.
    The worst one was Alastair Carmichael not quitting the cabinet in late 2014.

    He cost me about four different bets.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320

    If Esther McVey had any sense of shame or decency she'd quit now.

    Maybe you should email her and let her know how much you'll win if she did. I'm sure that'd help her see sense.
    It's not about money, call me old fashioned but when a Minister repeatedly misleads the Commons they should quit.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,120
    I reckon I've won one bet this year - Harry not having a shave for his big day.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,255

    If Esther McVey had any sense of shame or decency she'd quit now.

    So staying on then?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    If Esther McVey had any sense of shame or decency she'd quit now.

    Maybe you should email her and let her know how much you'll win if she did. I'm sure that'd help her see sense.
    It's not about money, call me old fashioned but when a Minister repeatedly misleads the Commons they should quit.
    I'm glad you'll be almost as pleased if she quits second then
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,066
    Anyone looking forward to a Liam Fox Off, headline?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,886
    Hammersmith Pub to be renamed 'the Trump Arms' next week during the presidential visit by Irish-born landlord Damien Smyth and his New Yorker wife Marian.

    Steve Bannon and Nigel Farage have been invited to a welcome party with hot dogs and cheeseburgers and Trump-themed cocktails and costumes and banners and music recreating the atmosphere of a Trump rally.

    Tickets cost £32 a head

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/london/pub-renamed-trump-arms-for-presidential-visit-a3879986.html?amp
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 29,807
    edited July 5
    Not just the Labour party that has a problem....

    The German government plans to send 170 anti-bullying experts into schools after the summer break to tackle anti-Semitism among children.

    "Anti-Semitism in schools is a big problem," Families Minister Franziska Giffey said.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    I thought May was having separate meetings with key cabinet ministers before tomorrow.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 21,552
    surby said:

    I thought May was having separate meetings with key cabinet ministers before tomorrow.
    Fox was supposedly in the meeting with Johnson and the rest at the FCO. My bet would be that he stays on as a favour to May.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,729
    What happens if people resign at the same time?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,760
    I think this one will be decided on dead heat rules if it’s this weekend. Can’t imagine that one poor bugger does a James Purnell unless he or she is certain others will jump too.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320
    Karma's brilliant isn't it?

    At least three suspected poachers have been mauled to death and eaten by lions after breaking into a wildlife reserve in South Africa.

    The men entered the Sibuya Game Reserve on the southeast coast armed with a rifle with a silencer, wire cutters and an axe, and had food supplies "for a number of days", said reserve owner Nick Fox.


    He said they bore "all the hallmarks of a gang intent on killing rhino and removing their horns".


    https://news.sky.com/story/rhino-poachers-eaten-by-lions-in-south-africa-11427165
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    What happens if people resign at the same time?

    Dead heat rules apply I presume
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    HYUFD said:

    Hammersmith Pub to be renamed 'the Trump Arms' next week during the presidential visit by Irish-born landlord Damien Smyth and his New Yorker wife Marian.

    Steve Bannon and Nigel Farage have been invited to a welcome party with hot dogs and cheeseburgers and Trump-themed cocktails and costumes and banners and music recreating the atmosphere of a Trump rally.

    Tickets cost £32 a head

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/london/pub-renamed-trump-arms-for-presidential-visit-a3879986.html?amp

    Will the pub last another year ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320

    What happens if people resign at the same time?

    Dead heat rules kick in.

    So if 2 ministers resign on the same day you get half your winnings, if 3 quit, you get a third of your winnings, if 4 quit you get a quarter of your winnings, so on so forth.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    What happens if people resign at the same time?

    Dead heat rules kick in.

    So if 2 ministers resign on the same day you get half your winnings, if 3 quit, you get a third of your winnings, if 4 quit you get a quarter of your winnings, so on so forth.
    I know you know, but not totally clear from that that you mean that fraction of winnings including stake
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 14,543
    Anything to stop a cabinet minister from not resigning but instead sending a letter to Graham Brady's postbox?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,621

    If Esther McVey had any sense of shame or decency she'd quit now.

    Maybe you should email her and let her know how much you'll win if she did. I'm sure that'd help her see sense.
    It's not about money, call me old fashioned but when a Minister repeatedly misleads the Commons they should quit.
    They've seen it as part of their job, for a long time now.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,478

    Anything to stop a cabinet minister from not resigning but instead sending a letter to Graham Brady's postbox?

    Collective responsibility?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 14,543

    What happens if people resign at the same time?

    Dead heat rules kick in.

    So if 2 ministers resign on the same day you get half your winnings, if 3 quit, you get a third of your winnings, if 4 quit you get a quarter of your winnings, so on so forth.
    I know you know, but not totally clear from that that you mean that fraction of winnings including stake
    So if say 4 ministers resign you get 1/4 of your stake back and win 1/4 of your winnings . . . while simultaneously losing 3/4 of your stake?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320
    edited July 5

    Anything to stop a cabinet minister from not resigning but instead sending a letter to Graham Brady's postbox?

    Nope.

    Some ministers voted against Thatcher in 1990.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 14,543
    MaxPB said:

    Anything to stop a cabinet minister from not resigning but instead sending a letter to Graham Brady's postbox?

    Collective responsibility?
    Does collective responsibility prevent you from sending in a no confidence letter? Also are the letter senders anonymous?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,760
    edited July 5

    What happens if people resign at the same time?

    Dead heat rules kick in.

    So if 2 ministers resign on the same day you get half your winnings, if 3 quit, you get a third of your winnings, if 4 quit you get a quarter of your winnings, so on so forth.
    I know you know, but not totally clear from that that you mean that fraction of winnings including stake
    So if say 4 ministers resign you get 1/4 of your stake back and win 1/4 of your winnings . . . while simultaneously losing 3/4 of your stake?
    Correct.
    1/4 of your stake would win and 3/4 of your stake would lose.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    What happens if people resign at the same time?

    Dead heat rules kick in.

    So if 2 ministers resign on the same day you get half your winnings, if 3 quit, you get a third of your winnings, if 4 quit you get a quarter of your winnings, so on so forth.
    I know you know, but not totally clear from that that you mean that fraction of winnings including stake
    So if say 4 ministers resign you get 1/4 of your stake back and win 1/4 of your winnings . . . while simultaneously losing 3/4 of your stake?
    Yes
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 21,552
    It wouldn’t surprise me if Andrea Jenkyns sent a group letter to Graham Brady with 48 redacted names.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,621
    O/T Macron's ratings collapse suggests that one term is as good as it gets, for a French President.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320
    Yorkshire is the best accent in the world.

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,386
    Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,071
    So if The Government collapses over the weekend, gets No Confidenced Tuesday, Corbyn gets to attempt a minority government and goes to the Palace on Wednesday, then he would be the PM greeting Trump on Thursday.

    Almost worth doing for the LOL's!
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 612
    surby said:

    I thought May was having separate meetings with key cabinet ministers before tomorrow.
    "key" being the operative word. Fox's goose is cooked?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,762
    Is anyone offering odds on "No resignations" tommorow ?
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 612

    If Esther McVey had any sense of shame or decency she'd quit now.

    I see why she lost her seat now, even as the Tories gained a majority.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,071

    Yorkshire is the best accent in the world.

    An immigrant though!
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 612

    Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.

    single market was voted down with a massive majority in Parliament.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,120
    edited July 5
    nunuone said:

    If Esther McVey had any sense of shame or decency she'd quit now.

    I see why she lost her seat now, even as the Tories gained a majority.
    No Green candidate.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 21,552
    nunuone said:

    Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.

    single market was voted down with a massive majority in Parliament.
    Not this again... Tying the government’s hands was voted down, but nothing prevents the government from staying in the single market.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,255
    Objecting to freedom of expression? It's political correctness gone mad I tells ye.



  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,071
    nunuone said:

    Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.

    single market was voted down with a massive majority in Parliament.
    The problem is that we all know what the vote was against, no one knows what it was for.

    I compared it to Suez, but Suez was at least well planned on the military side, just incompetently on the political side.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Foxy said:

    So if The Government collapses over the weekend, gets No Confidenced Tuesday, Corbyn gets to attempt a minority government and goes to the Palace on Wednesday, then he would be the PM greeting Trump on Thursday.

    Almost worth doing for the LOL's!

    What really are the chances of the government collapsing ? May has no ideology or belief. She will pursue any policy which will command a majority in Parliament - if necessary from non Tories.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320

    Objecting to freedom of expression? It's political correctness gone mad I tells ye.



    Farage wasn't around when George W Bush visited in 2003.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 612
    dr_spyn said:

    Anyone looking forward to a Liam Fox Off, headline?

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,071
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,038
    Sean_F said:

    O/T Macron's ratings collapse suggests that one term is as good as it gets, for a French President.

    I think that depends on if the opposition remains as split as it is now.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 30,148
    FPT 'Ending free movement means no more pensioners retiring to Spain' - not so - the process will change, but other non-EU nationals (such as Americans or Australians) already retire there:

    https://transferwise.com/gb/blog/guide-to-retiring-in-spain
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,551
    edited July 5
    Foxy said:

    nunuone said:

    Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.

    single market was voted down with a massive majority in Parliament.
    The problem is that we all know what the vote was against, no one knows what it was for.

    I compared it to Suez, but Suez was at least well planned on the military side, just incompetently on the political side.
    that's because the establishment couldn't think of anything positive FOR the EU

    all Brexit tells us is the numpties who run the country should have less jurisdiction in our every day lives since they cant organise a piss up in a urinal

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,203
    Foxy said:

    So if The Government collapses over the weekend, gets No Confidenced Tuesday, Corbyn gets to attempt a minority government and goes to the Palace on Wednesday, then he would be the PM greeting Trump on Thursday.

    Almost worth doing for the LOL's!

    That won't happen - no way the Government would lose a confidence vote on the floor of the Commons.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,534
    Foxy said:
    Ignore Peston, but do pay attention to Kuenssberg would be my suggestion.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,760

    FPT 'Ending free movement means no more pensioners retiring to Spain' - not so - the process will change, but other non-EU nationals (such as Americans or Australians) already retire there:

    https://transferwise.com/gb/blog/guide-to-retiring-in-spain

    Indeed. It’s up to Spain if they think that having thousands of Brits spending their pensions in their country is a good thing or not.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,896

    FPT 'Ending free movement means no more pensioners retiring to Spain' - not so - the process will change, but other non-EU nationals (such as Americans or Australians) already retire there:

    https://transferwise.com/gb/blog/guide-to-retiring-in-spain

    Quite - I know several. The process is more arduous but the current Spanish government is in the process of giving free health provision to all foreign nationals who are resident regardless of age, income, country of origin, etc, etc. I'd expect as this becomes widely known there will be an increase of Brits making the move.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,071

    Foxy said:

    nunuone said:

    Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.

    single market was voted down with a massive majority in Parliament.
    The problem is that we all know what the vote was against, no one knows what it was for.

    I compared it to Suez, but Suez was at least well planned on the military side, just incompetently on the political side.
    that's because the establishment couldn't think of anything positive FOR the EU

    all Brexit tells us is the numpties who run the country should have less jurisdiction in our every day lives since they cant organise a piss up in a urinal

    I quite agree. The EU has a much better functioning government, but Westminster has now taken back control, with Henry VIII powers in addition.

    Hang on to your seats, its going to be a bumpy ride.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,886
    surby said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hammersmith Pub to be renamed 'the Trump Arms' next week during the presidential visit by Irish-born landlord Damien Smyth and his New Yorker wife Marian.

    Steve Bannon and Nigel Farage have been invited to a welcome party with hot dogs and cheeseburgers and Trump-themed cocktails and costumes and banners and music recreating the atmosphere of a Trump rally.

    Tickets cost £32 a head

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/london/pub-renamed-trump-arms-for-presidential-visit-a3879986.html?amp

    Will the pub last another year ?
    Given the thousands of pubs in London and the fact that maybe even if only a few hundred thousand Londoners out of 8 million are Trump supporters that is still a lot of potential customers
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,386
    Sandpit said:

    FPT 'Ending free movement means no more pensioners retiring to Spain' - not so - the process will change, but other non-EU nationals (such as Americans or Australians) already retire there:

    https://transferwise.com/gb/blog/guide-to-retiring-in-spain

    Indeed. It’s up to Spain if they think that having thousands of Brits spending their pensions in their country is a good thing or not.
    I guess that Spain will continue to welcome younger, fitter pensioners but since they will no longer be eligible for free healthcare all except the very rich will return to the UK in their final years in order to access the NHS.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,478
    Foxy said:

    So if The Government collapses over the weekend, gets No Confidenced Tuesday, Corbyn gets to attempt a minority government and goes to the Palace on Wednesday, then he would be the PM greeting Trump on Thursday.

    Almost worth doing for the LOL's!

    The government wouldn't fall, just May.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,886

    nunuone said:

    Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.

    single market was voted down with a massive majority in Parliament.
    Not this again... Tying the government’s hands was voted down, but nothing prevents the government from staying in the single market.
    The amendment to pursue staying in the single market was voted down by 327 votes to 126

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/eu-withdrawal-bill-mps-reject-eea-membership-after-brexit-in-key-vote-11404084
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,886
    edited July 5
    Foxy said:

    So if The Government collapses over the weekend, gets No Confidenced Tuesday, Corbyn gets to attempt a minority government and goes to the Palace on Wednesday, then he would be the PM greeting Trump on Thursday.

    Almost worth doing for the LOL's!

    Then Corbyn would have to deal with Brexit and his just as divided party.

    Plus Trump has shown himself ready to deal with Lopez Obrador so no reason he could not deal with Corbyn too
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,896

    Sandpit said:

    FPT 'Ending free movement means no more pensioners retiring to Spain' - not so - the process will change, but other non-EU nationals (such as Americans or Australians) already retire there:

    https://transferwise.com/gb/blog/guide-to-retiring-in-spain

    Indeed. It’s up to Spain if they think that having thousands of Brits spending their pensions in their country is a good thing or not.
    I guess that Spain will continue to welcome younger, fitter pensioners but since they will no longer be eligible for free healthcare all except the very rich will return to the UK in their final years in order to access the NHS.
    You are wrong on healthcare - the new government is in the process of giving free healthcare to all foreign nationals resident in Spain of any age.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,605
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    nunuone said:

    Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.

    single market was voted down with a massive majority in Parliament.
    The problem is that we all know what the vote was against, no one knows what it was for.

    I compared it to Suez, but Suez was at least well planned on the military side, just incompetently on the political side.
    that's because the establishment couldn't think of anything positive FOR the EU

    all Brexit tells us is the numpties who run the country should have less jurisdiction in our every day lives since they cant organise a piss up in a urinal

    I quite agree. The EU has a much better functioning government, but Westminster has now taken back control, with Henry VIII powers in addition.

    Hang on to your seats, its going to be a bumpy ride.
    Probably helped by the fact they hardly have to run anything.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,071
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    So if The Government collapses over the weekend, gets No Confidenced Tuesday, Corbyn gets to attempt a minority government and goes to the Palace on Wednesday, then he would be the PM greeting Trump on Thursday.

    Almost worth doing for the LOL's!

    Then Corbyn would have to deal with Brexit and his just as divided party.

    Plus Trump has shown himself ready to deal with Lopez Obrador so no reason he could not deal with Corbyn too
    Yes, but the prospect of Jezza giving Trump a lesson in Jam making is too good to miss.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,120
    edited July 5
    Middlesex collapsing. :D
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,879

    FPT 'Ending free movement means no more pensioners retiring to Spain' - not so - the process will change, but other non-EU nationals (such as Americans or Australians) already retire there:

    https://transferwise.com/gb/blog/guide-to-retiring-in-spain

    What will end is the right to retire there. That's quite a big deal.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320
    edited July 5
    tlg86 said:

    Middlesex collapsing. :D

    Positively Englandesque collapse by the not real county.

    From 88/1 to 89/5
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,896
    edited July 5

    FPT 'Ending free movement means no more pensioners retiring to Spain' - not so - the process will change, but other non-EU nationals (such as Americans or Australians) already retire there:

    https://transferwise.com/gb/blog/guide-to-retiring-in-spain

    What will end is the right to retire there. That's quite a big deal.

    Nope - the new government in Spain is changing the position on healthcare for all foreign nationals.

    https://www.eyeonspain.com/blogs/spainnews/18364/government-to-make-healthcare-free-and-universal-again-within-six-weeks.aspx

    Apparently they have said they hope the UK government will still pay for pensioners as they do now.

    Also the new measure has got all party support.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,386
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    nunuone said:

    Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.

    single market was voted down with a massive majority in Parliament.
    The problem is that we all know what the vote was against, no one knows what it was for.

    I compared it to Suez, but Suez was at least well planned on the military side, just incompetently on the political side.
    that's because the establishment couldn't think of anything positive FOR the EU

    all Brexit tells us is the numpties who run the country should have less jurisdiction in our every day lives since they cant organise a piss up in a urinal

    I quite agree. The EU has a much better functioning government, but Westminster has now taken back control, with Henry VIII powers in addition.

    Hang on to your seats, its going to be a bumpy ride.
    I fear it is. The city contact I mentioned earlier was visibly nervous when talking about the EU's preparations for no deal. The financial community has been unanimously of the view that a no deal outcome was so damaging and stupid that it could not possibly happen. No sane government could possibly contemplate it. But we don't have a sane government, or indeed any government, we have some people in various offices of state but they cannot be said to be governing. If no deal looks like becoming a reality there will be panic in the city and it will not be pretty.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,896

    tlg86 said:

    Middlesex collapsing. :D

    Positively Englandesque collapse by the not real county.

    From 88/1 to 89/5
    What do you expect - a trans cricket team isn't gonna cut it really :)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,879
    felix said:

    FPT 'Ending free movement means no more pensioners retiring to Spain' - not so - the process will change, but other non-EU nationals (such as Americans or Australians) already retire there:

    https://transferwise.com/gb/blog/guide-to-retiring-in-spain

    What will end is the right to retire there. That's quite a big deal.

    Nope - the new government in Spain is changing the position on healthcare for all foreign nationals.

    https://www.eyeonspain.com/blogs/spainnews/18364/government-to-make-healthcare-free-and-universal-again-within-six-weeks.aspx

    Apparently they have said they hope the UK government will still pay for pensioners as they do now.

    Also the new measure has got all party support.

    The new Spanish government - a huge improvement on the previous one - is, unfortunately, not guaranteed to be in power forever. Right now, that does not matter. Once we leave the EU it will.

  • felixfelix Posts: 7,896

    felix said:

    FPT 'Ending free movement means no more pensioners retiring to Spain' - not so - the process will change, but other non-EU nationals (such as Americans or Australians) already retire there:

    https://transferwise.com/gb/blog/guide-to-retiring-in-spain

    What will end is the right to retire there. That's quite a big deal.

    Nope - the new government in Spain is changing the position on healthcare for all foreign nationals.

    https://www.eyeonspain.com/blogs/spainnews/18364/government-to-make-healthcare-free-and-universal-again-within-six-weeks.aspx

    Apparently they have said they hope the UK government will still pay for pensioners as they do now.

    Also the new measure has got all party support.

    The new Spanish government - a huge improvement on the previous one - is, unfortunately, not guaranteed to be in power forever. Right now, that does not matter. Once we leave the EU it will.

    As I said the measure has all party support. Of course nothing is guaranteed forever - except death and taxes.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,813
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    So if The Government collapses over the weekend, gets No Confidenced Tuesday, Corbyn gets to attempt a minority government and goes to the Palace on Wednesday, then he would be the PM greeting Trump on Thursday.

    Almost worth doing for the LOL's!

    Then Corbyn would have to deal with Brexit and his just as divided party.

    Plus Trump has shown himself ready to deal with Lopez Obrador so no reason he could not deal with Corbyn too
    Yes, but the prospect of Jezza giving Trump a lesson in Jam making is too good to miss.
    Trump might get on better with Corbyn than May. Arguably she is more a polar opposite than he.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,896
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    So if The Government collapses over the weekend, gets No Confidenced Tuesday, Corbyn gets to attempt a minority government and goes to the Palace on Wednesday, then he would be the PM greeting Trump on Thursday.

    Almost worth doing for the LOL's!

    Then Corbyn would have to deal with Brexit and his just as divided party.

    Plus Trump has shown himself ready to deal with Lopez Obrador so no reason he could not deal with Corbyn too
    Yes, but the prospect of Jezza giving Trump a lesson in Jam making is too good to miss.
    Trump might get on better with Corbyn than May. Arguably she is more a polar opposite than he.
    Quite true - Corbyn and Trump are far closer than appearances would suggest.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,000
    Defending champion Muguruza in trouble against Belgian player Alison Van Uytvanck.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 30,148

    FPT 'Ending free movement means no more pensioners retiring to Spain' - not so - the process will change, but other non-EU nationals (such as Americans or Australians) already retire there:

    https://transferwise.com/gb/blog/guide-to-retiring-in-spain

    What will end is the right to retire there. That's quite a big deal.

    There is no 'right to retire' guaranteed by the EU - what the EU guarantees is a 'freedom of movement of labour' - not 'pensioners'. After we've left presumably British retirees will enjoy the same rights as American or Australian ones. People were retiring to Spain before it joined the EU - and will continue to do so after we leave.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,621

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    nunuone said:

    Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.

    single market was voted down with a massive majority in Parliament.
    The problem is that we all know what the vote was against, no one knows what it was for.

    I compared it to Suez, but Suez was at least well planned on the military side, just incompetently on the political side.
    that's because the establishment couldn't think of anything positive FOR the EU

    all Brexit tells us is the numpties who run the country should have less jurisdiction in our every day lives since they cant organise a piss up in a urinal

    I quite agree. The EU has a much better functioning government, but Westminster has now taken back control, with Henry VIII powers in addition.

    Hang on to your seats, its going to be a bumpy ride.
    I fear it is. The city contact I mentioned earlier was visibly nervous when talking about the EU's preparations for no deal. The financial community has been unanimously of the view that a no deal outcome was so damaging and stupid that it could not possibly happen. No sane government could possibly contemplate it. But we don't have a sane government, or indeed any government, we have some people in various offices of state but they cannot be said to be governing. If no deal looks like becoming a reality there will be panic in the city and it will not be pretty.
    Perhaps neither side wants a deal.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 30,148
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    So if The Government collapses over the weekend, gets No Confidenced Tuesday, Corbyn gets to attempt a minority government and goes to the Palace on Wednesday, then he would be the PM greeting Trump on Thursday.

    Almost worth doing for the LOL's!

    Then Corbyn would have to deal with Brexit and his just as divided party.

    Plus Trump has shown himself ready to deal with Lopez Obrador so no reason he could not deal with Corbyn too
    Yes, but the prospect of Jezza giving Trump a lesson in Jam making is too good to miss.
    Trump might get on better with Corbyn than May. Arguably she is more a polar opposite than he.
    What could Trump possibly have in common with a rable rousing demagogue who spouts meaningless platitudes?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 14,543

    Anything to stop a cabinet minister from not resigning but instead sending a letter to Graham Brady's postbox?

    Nope.

    Some ministers voted against Thatcher in 1990.
    If a cabinet minister thinks that May is signing the wrong deal then I would imagine sending a letter of no confidence to Graham Brady is surely more likely to result in a change of direction than a resignation.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,879

    FPT 'Ending free movement means no more pensioners retiring to Spain' - not so - the process will change, but other non-EU nationals (such as Americans or Australians) already retire there:

    https://transferwise.com/gb/blog/guide-to-retiring-in-spain

    What will end is the right to retire there. That's quite a big deal.

    There is no 'right to retire' guaranteed by the EU - what the EU guarantees is a 'freedom of movement of labour' - not 'pensioners'. After we've left presumably British retirees will enjoy the same rights as American or Australian ones. People were retiring to Spain before it joined the EU - and will continue to do so after we leave.

    Of course - the wealthy will notice no real difference. What EU citizenship offers are guarantees of residence and access to services that are not available to Americans and Australians as of right.

  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,231

    Objecting to freedom of expression? It's political correctness gone mad I tells ye.



    There is freedom of expression - and there is just childishness. Surprising City Hall allowed it.

    Surely there are more grown up ways to protest against Trump?L
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,255
    edited July 5
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    So if The Government collapses over the weekend, gets No Confidenced Tuesday, Corbyn gets to attempt a minority government and goes to the Palace on Wednesday, then he would be the PM greeting Trump on Thursday.

    Almost worth doing for the LOL's!

    Then Corbyn would have to deal with Brexit and his just as divided party.

    Plus Trump has shown himself ready to deal with Lopez Obrador so no reason he could not deal with Corbyn too
    Yes, but the prospect of Jezza giving Trump a lesson in Jam making is too good to miss.
    Trump might get on better with Corbyn than May. Arguably she is more a polar opposite than he.
    No hand holding though. Also pretty sure Jezza wouldn't get dragged into the alpha male, arm wrestling handshake.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 10,329
    O/T, and especially for the attention of @rcs1000

    I've been experiencing very weird behaviour re comments variously showing with a large delay (up to 90 minutes), and no persisting of login on an iphone 8, chrome or safari.

    I've seen others make similar comments. Anyone know any solution?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 21,552
    Mortimer said:
    And you’re ok with the length of time it will take to implement anything like a Canada deal?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 21,552
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    nunuone said:

    Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.

    single market was voted down with a massive majority in Parliament.
    The problem is that we all know what the vote was against, no one knows what it was for.

    I compared it to Suez, but Suez was at least well planned on the military side, just incompetently on the political side.
    that's because the establishment couldn't think of anything positive FOR the EU

    all Brexit tells us is the numpties who run the country should have less jurisdiction in our every day lives since they cant organise a piss up in a urinal

    I quite agree. The EU has a much better functioning government, but Westminster has now taken back control, with Henry VIII powers in addition.

    Hang on to your seats, its going to be a bumpy ride.
    I fear it is. The city contact I mentioned earlier was visibly nervous when talking about the EU's preparations for no deal. The financial community has been unanimously of the view that a no deal outcome was so damaging and stupid that it could not possibly happen. No sane government could possibly contemplate it. But we don't have a sane government, or indeed any government, we have some people in various offices of state but they cannot be said to be governing. If no deal looks like becoming a reality there will be panic in the city and it will not be pretty.
    Perhaps neither side wants a deal.
    It would be consistent with neither side wanting a Brexit.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,621
    Mortimer said:

    O/T, and especially for the attention of @rcs1000

    I've been experiencing very weird behaviour re comments variously showing with a large delay (up to 90 minutes), and no persisting of login on an iphone 8, chrome or safari.

    I've seen others make similar comments. Anyone know any solution?

    To ensure the comments flow properly make sure you are logged into Vanilla even if you don't intend to post. If you are not registered with Vanilla then do so
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,013
    How gracious of him to seek to settle for what was always his preferred objective.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    brendan16 said:

    Objecting to freedom of expression? It's political correctness gone mad I tells ye.



    There is freedom of expression - and there is just childishness. Surprising City Hall allowed it.

    Surely there are more grown up ways to protest against Trump?L
    Freedom of expression means individuals get to decide how childish they want their language to be, not politicians.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 30,148
    Ah yes, Carswell wants 'controlled' 'Free Movement'

    Good luck with that......
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 10,329

    Mortimer said:

    O/T, and especially for the attention of @rcs1000

    I've been experiencing very weird behaviour re comments variously showing with a large delay (up to 90 minutes), and no persisting of login on an iphone 8, chrome or safari.

    I've seen others make similar comments. Anyone know any solution?

    To ensure the comments flow properly make sure you are logged into Vanilla even if you don't intend to post. If you are not registered with Vanilla then do so
    Thanks Mike.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,798
    Speaking of issues that won't go away and both sides struggling to make a deal, I see Silverstone is in trouble again

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/44728847
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 14,543
    Mortimer said:

    O/T, and especially for the attention of @rcs1000

    I've been experiencing very weird behaviour re comments variously showing with a large delay (up to 90 minutes), and no persisting of login on an iphone 8, chrome or safari.

    I've seen others make similar comments. Anyone know any solution?

    I've had the same thing. Log back in and the up to date comment re-appear as if by magic.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 999
    Mortimer said:
    But with a customs border along the Irish Sea, which would be anathema to the DUP.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,650
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    So if The Government collapses over the weekend, gets No Confidenced Tuesday, Corbyn gets to attempt a minority government and goes to the Palace on Wednesday, then he would be the PM greeting Trump on Thursday.

    Almost worth doing for the LOL's!

    Then Corbyn would have to deal with Brexit and his just as divided party.

    Plus Trump has shown himself ready to deal with Lopez Obrador so no reason he could not deal with Corbyn too
    Yes, but the prospect of Jezza giving Trump a lesson in Jam making is too good to miss.
    Trump might get on better with Corbyn than May. Arguably she is more a polar opposite than he.
    I'd love it if we got a tweet from Donald along the lines of 'Just met with UK Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn. Great guy. Agree on so much about international/economic affairs. Looking forward to doing business with'.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 10,329

    Mortimer said:

    O/T, and especially for the attention of @rcs1000

    I've been experiencing very weird behaviour re comments variously showing with a large delay (up to 90 minutes), and no persisting of login on an iphone 8, chrome or safari.

    I've seen others make similar comments. Anyone know any solution?

    I've had the same thing. Log back in and the up to date comment re-appear as if by magic.
    I tried this from the main site - logins (and comments) just don't seem to persist via chrome/safari on the latest ios, though they used to.

    Guess I'll have to switch to the vanilla site on the mobile!

This discussion has been closed.