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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On this big day let’s remember Ken Clarke’s assessment of TMay

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Comments

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742

    John_M said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_P said:
    I would rather shoot myself in the fucking face than attend 5 minutes of any of that.
    Whenever people complain about the money that City lawyers get paid, they should remember that we have to annually attend partners' conferences for three days with agendas that make that one look full of pizzazz.

    Mind you, I initially misread the afternoon session as The Grand Parkour and now I have visions of the Cabinet showing off their wall runs and muscle ups along Chequers balustrades.
    LOL.

    An old colleague of mine told me of the time in the early 1980s he flew out with a team to somewhere in Europe for a several-day meeting on the naming of a variable in a telecoms system...

    And an acquaintance of mine recently had to go up to Manchester for a multi-day meeting on the format of documents needed on a large archaeological study.

    Sometimes I'm in favour of dictators ... ;)
    My punishment beating was to attend several meetings of the Common Criteria committee on Infosec. There's nothing like large, bureaucratic, multinational conclaves of civil servants for siphoning away one's will to live.
    Mrs J once had to spend a few days locked in the back of a white van with some Korean engineers as it drove around Spain ...

    (They were testing a receiver she had helped design, but she was never quite sure why the doors needed to be locked...)
    I hope they hadn't brought their own supply of kimchee.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    TMay tying us all in knots to give us BINO because WTO crash out would be a disaster.
    A 'People's Vote' would get her off the hook. It would get all of us off the hook.
    BINO is worse than staying.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Wondering if Soylent Green will go well with cranberry sauce this Christmas.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited July 2018
    Toms said:

    I note that the definition of "philistine" applies to an indifference or hostility to the arts and culture, whatever the latter may mean. If there is an obverse word to describe an indifference to and ignorance of technical and scientific knowledge then that I think would describe Gove.

    I don’t see that Gove is any stupider about science than the succession of PPE graduates who were ministers for science & climate change (Miliband, Huhne, etc)

    Gove was certainly passionate about teaching computer programming in schools:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/jan/11/michael-gove-boring-it-lessons

    which was very sensible. I don’t think much changed, but that was probably not Gove’s fault.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Clever. That’s probably enough to deter Boris.
    Isn't this the classic driving ban trap? Drive to magistrates court -- get banned -- get arrested for driving home.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    GIN1138 said:
    Boris is putting words into the mouth of Cameron.

    Dave has been fantastically loyal to Mrs May even though she has treated him very badly.

    Remember when she lost Dave's majority and a few Tory MPs had qualms about doing a deal with the DUP, Dave sent a tweet backing Mrs May, and also made a few phone calls to help her out.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Scott_P said:
    It's an odd way of putting it.
    WTO = disaster
    BINO = better than WTO but still not great. Like staying but with no say.

    So that leaves ,,, staying in. But how can that be done politically? Via another referendum!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited July 2018



    Dave has been fantastically loyal to Mrs May even though she has treated him very badly.



    Maybe (and unlike Osborne) he's just been biding his time? ;)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    With the EU negotiating team behaving as they are can anyone here suggest what May should do that will be acceptable to the public who voted to leave, to the House of Commons and to the EU?

    Walk away and go to No Deal planning.

    That doesn't mean No Deal will happen. The EU are only behaving as they are as they are convinced the UK isn't willing to countenance No Deal. They have more than 40 billion reasons to avoid No Deal themselves but think they don't need to change. If we walk away they might.
    Theresa wouldn't make a very good poker player would she? ;)
    Not at all.

    The way the negotiations are going is as if May in poker has declared both that she won't fold and walk away so will call any bet ... and that she has 7 2 off as her cards. So the EU keep betting larger amounts and May is calling them all as she won't fold and walk away from this hand. Now they're pushing All In and May still wants to call. No bet is better than a bad bet but May won't countenance it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,838
    I've gone in for the max allowed on "No", which is £15.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    23 Cabinet ministers? I wish they'd do something about the limit so we do not have to guess which fringe ministers who attend cabinet count for betting purposes -- Chief Whip, Chief Secretary to the Treasury and so on.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    Toms said:

    I note that the definition of "philistine" applies to an indifference or hostility to the arts and culture, whatever the latter may mean. If there is an obverse word to describe an indifference to and ignorance of technical and scientific knowledge then that I think would describe Gove.

    I don’t see that Gove is any stupider about science than the succession of PPE graduates who were ministers for science & climate change (Miliband, Huhne, etc)

    Gove was certainly passionate about teaching computer programming in schools:
    Yes, he's typical of our politicians. Yet we punch above our weight scientifically. Maybe C. P. Snow got it right.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Scott_P said:
    It's an odd way of putting it.
    WTO = disaster
    BINO = better than WTO but still not great. Like staying but with no say.

    So that leaves ,,, staying in. But how can that be done politically? Via another referendum!
    It leaves EEA (if that is possible - see my posts passim to see why I am sceptical).

    The reasoning would go - our bespoke deal is too messy, still not clear the details, not sure it's wholly achieveable and the EU doesn't like it and it would take too long and we don't want to crash out.

    But wait! There is an off the shelf deal which will be a compromise from our third way (which itself is a compromise from the cake strategy) and we should do that.

    By that time it will only be seen as "one" compromise, much as today's third way is seen as one compromise.

    Oh but of course that leaves immigration. But then we point to the decline in net immigration from the EU over the past 2-3 years and reassure everyone that it is unlikely to rise, or we can implement emergency controls, which I think would be justified in the short run, despite the restrictions on its use, because we would be in a traumatic, transformative state.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,838
    The only MPs who would countenance this will never take their seats in the Commons.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    Pulpstar said:

    I've gone in for the max allowed on "No", which is £15.
    Most of my betting today will be on Uruguay and Brazil.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/1015148358694993921?s=21

    Good to see our nation being lead by grown ups....Jesus f##kin wept.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,838

    Pulpstar said:

    I've gone in for the max allowed on "No", which is £15.
    Most of my betting today will be on Uruguay and Brazil.
    I think the odds on those two matches are about right, am on England and Croatia myself. I note Cavani is out, so France are probably more obvious to qualify than Brazil today.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Scott_P said:
    Just how crap are TM's advisers and staff, they can not even organise a threat correctly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    "Maybe historians will look back at today and deem it to be Theresa’s finest hour."

    This is a keeper.

    Yes, it is hard to see Theresa managing deftly to come out with a coherent and viable proposal.

    It is particularly absurd that it has taken 2 years for this meeting to happen. Fail to prepare? prepare to fail.
    I think that fore the stage one deal was done . If there is a lack of ambiguity after today it is very hard to imagine the Cabinet being the same as it is this morning.
    100% right.

    Tough job and all that, but the deliberate choice to not get agreement among less than 2 dozen cabinet members before now, just pushing it back and back, is not defendable.
    The Tories ain't getting my vote next time. They had best hope people who live in a seat that matters do not react the same way.
    We’ll have a new leader by then. Won’t you listen to what they have to say?
    A party is more than a single leader. Indeed, senior figures are lesser leaders, and the others direct and sway those leaders. May has done the best she could I think given the factions she has tried to keep on board, but when she's gone those factions remain and will ensure the incompetence continues as the new leader will face the same problems. Bluntly, they don't deserve my vote. Fortunately for them, they don't need mine in a safe seat.
    Good for you. Enjoy PM Corbyn.
    Perhaps you missed that I live in a safe seat. My vote won't help or prevent Corbyn becoming PM. I voted tory in 2017 for the first time largely because of corbyn,not because my vote wold stop him, but since I disliked him so much I felt I needed to own the next Gov as it were - it would have been very easy to vote LD again and not bear responsibility for the current incompetence, but I figured I needed to take that hit if it came.

    But that doesn't change that my MP will be a tory from now until the end of time no matter what I do.
    The Tories won a majority in 2015 then when you did not vote Tory and you do not live in a marginal seat so to be brutally honest I think they can survive your voting LD again
    Which I pointed out, thank you. I outright stated they had best hope people who live in a seat that matters dont think as I am, not that my vote would make a difference.

    So you're not exactly breaking the news to me here. I don't expect the tories to be upset, since it won't affect them. But they can't shame me with corbyn either, as royal blue lamely attempred, as I cannot help or prevent him becoming pm.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:
    I can see David Davis's autobiography title now.

    The Long Walk To Freedom.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    This meeting is just plain weird.

    Normally with things like this, most of the agenda is agreed beforehand. Apparently this is not the case. The govt is briefing about Taxi firms. Either this is expectation management or chaos.

    And why is this happening now, in 2018 and not in 2016?

    Really, really weird. But we all go along with it as this is a good way of deciding things.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2018
    Scott_P said:
    I remember the Lib Dems tried a similar wheeze by strongly advocating giving the public a vote on EU membership...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,838
    For anyone wanting fireworks at Chequers (Or a Gove resignation) please note my last bet of this type was on Amber Rudd to stay.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    currystar said:

    With the EU negotiating team behaving as they are can anyone here suggest what May should do that will be acceptable to the public who voted to leave, to the House of Commons and to the EU?

    There is no solution that satisfies those three conditions. I think that's been readily apparent for about a year.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,702
    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,838

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Where is this Owls ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Dura_Ace said:

    currystar said:

    With the EU negotiating team behaving as they are can anyone here suggest what May should do that will be acceptable to the public who voted to leave, to the House of Commons and to the EU?

    There is no solution that satisfies those three conditions. I think that's been readily apparent for about a year.
    It's all doable. Save for immigration. We have shown that we are a nation that doesn't like foreigners.

    The only hope is that part of any solution would use the fact that EU migration has fallen, to somehow sweep it under the carpet/super-fudge it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Remember, it's never cherry picking or cakeism when the EU does it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Is "Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn" the sound he makes for having the Brexit fence so far up his backside?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    The only MPs who would countenance this will never take their seats in the Commons.
    Corbyn would countenance it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,702
    Pulpstar said:

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Where is this Owls ?
    Britain Elects


    @britainelects
    11h11 hours ago
    More
    Curborough (Lichfield) result:
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Jonathan said:

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Is "Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn" the sound he makes for having the Brexit fence so far up his backside?
    No, it's the sound Labour's many anti-Semites and excusers of anti-Semites make when they read Labour's new anti-Semtism whitewash policy. ;)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    If this all ends with Parliament voting through leaving to the EEA/EFTA it would be a solid result in the end. It's definitely preferable to whatever frankenbrexit Theresa has come up with.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Scott_P said:
    Just checked their number, and she's not making this up
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Scott_P said:
    Just how crap are TM's advisers and staff, they can not even organise a threat correctly.
    They can't ring for a taxi anyway. Their phones have been taken away.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited July 2018
    MaxPB said:

    If this all ends with Parliament voting through leaving to the EEA/EFTA it would be a solid result in the end. It's definitely preferable to whatever frankenbrexit Theresa has come up with.

    As I posted upthread it is the only and logical outcome. We have already compromised to get to the third way. For all kinds of reasons that will prove impossible, so it is only a small compromise further to get to EEA/EFTA.

    And as it happens Dr North is in agreement also.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,838

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Looks like a very middle of the road ward, not a great omen for the Tories.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    So is the government going to fall apart over a deal the EU will reject anyway?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    The Tories have only one united ambition left keeping Corbyn out of power ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/06/brexit-tories-jeremy-corbyn
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 642
    This is the make or break day for TM. Not a minute too late. Productivity numbers today are dire. The business world is sitting on its hands now and waiting to see what will happen.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,282

    Scott_P said:

    "Well lets get on to the no deal planning sessions as that is the vitally important one."

    Q1. When we crash the economy, how do we avoid the pitchforks and piano wire?
    The economy will only crash with a total no deal scenario i.e no air travel agreement, no land transport agreement, etc. This is also mutually assured destruction. The no deal planning session should deal with getting those bilaterals in place.
    People who say "No deal will crash the economy" are basically saying "We believe the EU is so stupid that they will cut their head off to spite their face." Sensible people believe this to have a less than 1% chance of happening.
    CD13 said:

    Dr Fox,

    I think a majority of the voters are fully in favour of tariff-free trade. It's the extras that come with it.

    For example ... standardisation makes sense but uncontrolled FoM is an add-on. If goods move freely, so must labour? Why? Surely that 's a separate issue, and a political one.

    The argument is that doing so - having a single market without FoM - tilts the balance much too far in favour of capital, as companies would be able to decamp to the EU's lower wage economies and reduce workers' power by stunting competition for their labour. We are pretty much the only country which views 'Freedom of Movement' in terms of immigration and a negative - perhaps because we don't have easily crossed land borders and shared border communities (excepting NI which was of course largely ignored by Brexiteers). Where populations are beginning to get antsy about immigration, the cause tends to be immigration from outside the EU (the refugee crisis) and worries governments were caught out and unresponsive to levels of immigration (and type) they disagree with - and that due to the interlinked nature of the EU there's a potential for contagion.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,838

    So is the government going to fall apart over a deal the EU will reject anyway?

    No.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    If this all ends with Parliament voting through leaving to the EEA/EFTA it would be a solid result in the end. It's definitely preferable to whatever frankenbrexit Theresa has come up with.

    As I posted upthread it is the only and logical outcome. We have already compromised to get to the third way. For all kinds of reasons that will prove impossible, so it is only a small compromise further to get to EEA/EFTA.

    And as it happens Dr North is in agreement also.
    I think parliament doing it against the wishes of the leadership would also get the Tories off the hook for not restricting free movement and keep the party in the running g for 2022.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Pulpstar said:

    So is the government going to fall apart over a deal the EU will reject anyway?

    No.
    It has already fallen apart.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    This is the make or break day for TM. Not a minute too late. Productivity numbers today are dire. The business world is sitting on its hands now and waiting to see what will happen.

    That depends on whether Barnier immediately rubbishes it - or has been told to say 'look forward to discussions, needs work'.

    If the latter the crunch is delayed as the EU's 'border in the Irish sea' is un-sellable in Westminster and the UK's 'Freedom of movement cherry picking' is unsellable in the EU - in which case the whole thing will blow up in October....
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Other Britain Elects posts include:

    Kingsmead (Bath & North East Somerset) result:

    LDEM: 41.1% (+10.0)
    LAB: 24.6% (+11.6)
    CON: 21.3% (-6.8)
    GRN: 13.0% (-9.5)

    LDem GAIN from Con.

    No UKIP (-5.3) as prev.


    On "the UK changing the electoral system from First Past the Post to a system of Proportional Representation":

    Support: 51%
    Oppose: 13%


    "I think the share of seats a party wins should closely match the share of votes it receives":

    Agree: 66%
    Disagree: 7%
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    MJW said:

    Scott_P said:

    "Well lets get on to the no deal planning sessions as that is the vitally important one."

    Q1. When we crash the economy, how do we avoid the pitchforks and piano wire?
    The economy will only crash with a total no deal scenario i.e no air travel agreement, no land transport agreement, etc. This is also mutually assured destruction. The no deal planning session should deal with getting those bilaterals in place.
    People who say "No deal will crash the economy" are basically saying "We believe the EU is so stupid that they will cut their head off to spite their face." Sensible people believe this to have a less than 1% chance of happening.
    CD13 said:

    Dr Fox,

    I think a majority of the voters are fully in favour of tariff-free trade. It's the extras that come with it.

    For example ... standardisation makes sense but uncontrolled FoM is an add-on. If goods move freely, so must labour? Why? Surely that 's a separate issue, and a political one.

    The argument is that doing so - having a single market without FoM - tilts the balance much too far in favour of capital, as companies would be able to decamp to the EU's lower wage economies and reduce workers' power by stunting competition for their labour. We are pretty much the only country which views 'Freedom of Movement' in terms of immigration and a negative - perhaps because we don't have easily crossed land borders and shared border communities (excepting NI which was of course largely ignored by Brexiteers). Where populations are beginning to get antsy about immigration, the cause tends to be immigration from outside the EU (the refugee crisis) and worries governments were caught out and unresponsive to levels of immigration (and type) they disagree with - and that due to the interlinked nature of the EU there's a potential for contagion.
    The UK is 12% of the EU's population yet The UK has had 40% of the intra-EU population movement. I would argue that any other country that had this much would get a bit antsy about it. For example the French and Germans at the moment are getting very anti EU posted workers because they are undercutting local wages. This has been happening for the last 10 years here but we had to lump it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    So is the government going to fall apart over a deal the EU will reject anyway?

    Probably not, but they will spend hours raging until they cone up with meaningless words that the EU will reject anyway.

    As I observed last night, if the reaction to the proposed wording was indeed horror as reported, no redrafting saves that.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Churchill's 'Finest Hour' speech was of course after the Dunkirk retreat.

    Appropriate if May retreats from her red lines under pressure from the EU negotoators, business and the civil service.

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Other Britain Elects posts include:

    Kingsmead (Bath & North East Somerset) result:

    LDEM: 41.1% (+10.0)
    LAB: 24.6% (+11.6)
    CON: 21.3% (-6.8)
    GRN: 13.0% (-9.5)

    LDem GAIN from Con.

    No UKIP (-5.3) as prev.


    On "the UK changing the electoral system from First Past the Post to a system of Proportional Representation":

    Support: 51%
    Oppose: 13%


    "I think the share of seats a party wins should closely match the share of votes it receives":

    Agree: 66%
    Disagree: 7%
    You can see in Kingsmead the distorting effect of a multimember constituency - LD always likely to pick the seat up in a byelection
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    This is the make or break day for TM. Not a minute too late. Productivity numbers today are dire. The business world is sitting on its hands now and waiting to see what will happen.

    That depends on whether Barnier immediately rubbishes it - or has been told to say 'look forward to discussions, needs work'.

    If the latter the crunch is delayed as the EU's 'border in the Irish sea' is un-sellable in Westminster and the UK's 'Freedom of movement cherry picking' is unsellable in the EU - in which case the whole thing will blow up in October....
    The most likely scenario. May can't back down much further and survive, the EU thinks it doesn't need to as we will capitulate further. So they will want to give us more time to agree to capitulate.

    Accidental no deal - the most likely scenario given the lack of progress in 2018.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,702
    Jonathan said:

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Is "Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn" the sound he makes for having the Brexit fence so far up his backside?
    No its a celebration of Labour sticking up for the Many not the few.

    And the fact that change is coming
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited July 2018
    Not a good tactic for the Brexiteers to resign today.

    Best to keep powder dry and organise a challenge to May as Conservative leader - then resign en bloc.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Scott_P said:
    Just how crap are TM's advisers and staff, they can not even organise a threat correctly.
    They can't ring for a taxi anyway. Their phones have been taken away.
    If I were to order an Uber for a Cabinet minister should I choose Boris, Davis or Fox?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Jeremy Corbyn loses his cool with a Dutch reporter.
    https://twitter.com/VanessaLamsvelt/status/1014957849716412416
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Jonathan said:

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Is "Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn" the sound he makes for having the Brexit fence so far up his backside?
    No its a celebration of Labour sticking up for the Many not the few.

    And the fact that change is coming
    Strange that millions more voted for the tories - who knew that millions are not for the many.

    Lazy political slogans don't work in real life. And yes that applies on the opposite direction.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,702

    Not a good tactic for the Brexiteers to resign today.

    Best to keep powder dry and organise a challenge to May as Conservative leader - then resign en bloc.

    Country before Party!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    If I were a hard-line Brexiteers, I would wait until 30 March 2019. May will have no reason left to stay, and I would take over the perpetual flame of Brexit to move us further out than her.

    It is the hard-line Remainers that need action now.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    kle4 said:

    This is the make or break day for TM. Not a minute too late. Productivity numbers today are dire. The business world is sitting on its hands now and waiting to see what will happen.

    That depends on whether Barnier immediately rubbishes it - or has been told to say 'look forward to discussions, needs work'.

    If the latter the crunch is delayed as the EU's 'border in the Irish sea' is un-sellable in Westminster and the UK's 'Freedom of movement cherry picking' is unsellable in the EU - in which case the whole thing will blow up in October....
    Accidental no deal - the most likely scenario given the lack of progress in 2018.
    I'd love to be a fly on the wall when the Cabinet discusses 'no deal' planning.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Jeremy Corbyn loses his cool with a Dutch reporter.
    twitter.com/VanessaLamsvelt/status/1014957849716412416

    The mask slips from time to time.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Is "Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn" the sound he makes for having the Brexit fence so far up his backside?
    No its a celebration of Labour sticking up for the Many not the few.

    And the fact that change is coming
    He doesn't give a stuff about what the members think on Brexit.


  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Some of his earlier performances on RT should rule him out. It would be almost like having David Ike as PM.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Curborough (Lichfield) result: LAB: 60.4% (+27.2) CON: 33.0% (-8.4) LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6) No UKIP (-25.4) as prev. Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Kingsmead (Bath & North East Somerset) result: LDEM: 41.1% (+10.0) LAB: 24.6% (+11.6) CON: 21.3% (-6.8) GRN: 13.0% (-9.5) LDem GAIN from Con

    Shifnal South & Cosford (Shropshire) result: CON: 38.3% (-18.9) IND (Mitchell): 22.2% (-9.3) IND (Carey): 21.9% (+21.9) LDEM: 17.7% (+6.3) Conservative HOLD.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Feeling lucky, punk? That’s the message that Theresa May will deliver to her fractious ministers today at Chequers as the cabinet gathers to hammer out its preferred approach on customs. A senior ally of the PM’s tells Politico's Jack Blanchard that anyone who decides to quit will be given the number of the local cab firm and left to make the journey back from Buckinghamshire alone.

    Is the PM right to think she has the strength to face down her detractors? The problem that the Brexiteers have is that they have the numbers to wound May but not to kill her.


    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/07/cabinet-away-day-brexit-conservative-chequers-theresa-may-eu
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Cheryl Baker has more chance.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Not a good tactic for the Brexiteers to resign today.

    Best to keep powder dry and organise a challenge to May as Conservative leader - then resign en bloc.

    Why resign ? She's so weak they don't have to. Dare her to fire them.

    Exit meeting - leak its a crap deal. Wait for the EU to reject it. Say I told you so..

  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Other Britain Elects posts include:

    Kingsmead (Bath & North East Somerset) result:

    LDEM: 41.1% (+10.0)
    LAB: 24.6% (+11.6)
    CON: 21.3% (-6.8)
    GRN: 13.0% (-9.5)

    LDem GAIN from Con.

    No UKIP (-5.3) as prev.


    On "the UK changing the electoral system from First Past the Post to a system of Proportional Representation":

    Support: 51%
    Oppose: 13%


    "I think the share of seats a party wins should closely match the share of votes it receives":

    Agree: 66%
    Disagree: 7%
    The Tories are getting hammered. Tactical anti-Tory voting is back.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TGOHF said:

    Cheryl Baker has more chance.
    Cheryl Baker is very well-qualified. Like the Leaver Cabinet ministers, she knows all about the Land Of Make Believe and unlike the Leaver Cabinet ministers she knows all about Making Your Mind Up.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,702
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Is "Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn" the sound he makes for having the Brexit fence so far up his backside?
    No its a celebration of Labour sticking up for the Many not the few.

    And the fact that change is coming
    He doesn't give a stuff about what the members think on Brexit.


    Opposing BREXIT is Suicide most LAB constituencies are Leave.

    LAB must not be blamed for derailing it.

    BTW the EU has been on the side of the few getting richer at the expense of the poor.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    So is the government going to fall apart over a deal the EU will reject anyway?

    The Versailles Treaty would have been considered too soft by the EU Commission.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    surby said:

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Other Britain Elects posts include:

    Kingsmead (Bath & North East Somerset) result:

    LDEM: 41.1% (+10.0)
    LAB: 24.6% (+11.6)
    CON: 21.3% (-6.8)
    GRN: 13.0% (-9.5)

    LDem GAIN from Con.

    No UKIP (-5.3) as prev.


    On "the UK changing the electoral system from First Past the Post to a system of Proportional Representation":

    Support: 51%
    Oppose: 13%


    "I think the share of seats a party wins should closely match the share of votes it receives":

    Agree: 66%
    Disagree: 7%
    The Tories are getting hammered. Tactical anti-Tory voting is back.
    Surby

    We had this big election in May where approx 1/3 of the country was asked how they vote locally... what resulted was by no means a hammering for May
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    TGOHF said:

    Cheryl Baker has more chance.
    Cheryl Baker is very well-qualified. Like the Leaver Cabinet ministers, she knows all about the Land Of Make Believe and unlike the Leaver Cabinet ministers she knows all about Making Your Mind Up.
    So it's going to be one of those days, is it.

    [I hate my brain. I just had a mental image of Theresa May twirling as her skirt was ripped off in a Bakeresque fashion. Now you have the image too. Sorry.]
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Is "Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn" the sound he makes for having the Brexit fence so far up his backside?
    No its a celebration of Labour sticking up for the Many not the few.

    And the fact that change is coming
    He doesn't give a stuff about what the members think on Brexit.


    Opposing BREXIT is Suicide most LAB constituencies are Leave.

    LAB must not be blamed for derailing it.

    BTW the EU has been on the side of the few getting richer at the expense of the poor.
    So he doesn't give a stuff about the members when it suits him. His position on Brexit is fundamentally dishonest in my opinion.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Anorak said:

    [I hate my brain. I just had a mental image of Theresa May twirling as her skirt was ripped off in a Bakeresque fashion. Now you have the image too. Sorry.]

    Red Card!

    Who is swinging the banhammer today?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    So is the government going to fall apart over a deal the EU will reject anyway?

    The Versailles Treaty would have been considered too soft by the EU Commission.
    Do you think we'll end up occupied by France to enforce the terms?
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Sorry, we must get a vote to get us out of this horrible mess !!!!
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    This is the make or break day for TM. Not a minute too late. Productivity numbers today are dire. The business world is sitting on its hands now and waiting to see what will happen.

    When was the last time British productivity figures weren't dire?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    surby said:

    Sorry, we must get a vote to get us out of this horrible mess !!!!
    And if the vote doesn't go your way again, another vote?
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    surby said:

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Other Britain Elects posts include:

    Kingsmead (Bath & North East Somerset) result:

    LDEM: 41.1% (+10.0)
    LAB: 24.6% (+11.6)
    CON: 21.3% (-6.8)
    GRN: 13.0% (-9.5)

    LDem GAIN from Con.

    No UKIP (-5.3) as prev.


    On "the UK changing the electoral system from First Past the Post to a system of Proportional Representation":

    Support: 51%
    Oppose: 13%


    "I think the share of seats a party wins should closely match the share of votes it receives":

    Agree: 66%
    Disagree: 7%
    The Tories are getting hammered. Tactical anti-Tory voting is back.
    Surby

    We had this big election in May where approx 1/3 of the country was asked how they vote locally... what resulted was by no means a hammering for May
    A lot of has happened in two months. The can has kicked down the road several miles. Now we are close to the edge of the cliff!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,261
    Anazina said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_P said:
    I would rather shoot myself in the fucking face than attend 5 minutes of any of that.
    Whenever people complain about the money that City lawyers get paid, they should remember that we have to annually attend partners' conferences for three days with agendas that make that one look full of pizzazz.

    Mind you, I initially misread the afternoon session as The Grand Parkour and now I have visions of the Cabinet showing off their wall runs and muscle ups along Chequers balustrades.
    Jeez Alastair, my heart bleeds for you!

    Frequent three-day jollies with very boring agendas punctuated by food and drinks, and all for just a measely six figure salary? I'm sure you'd much rather get a job in a call centre. :wink:
    No amount of money can make that time go any quicker, believe you me. And you clearly have never had to eat conference 'food' or drink the 'wine'. I make a beeline for the nearest decent restaurant if I can.
    Been there, done that. You're describing a 1st world problem, in fact a 'top 10% of 1st world' problem.

    Trust me, there are millions out there who would their dreary, drudge of a just-scraping-by life for yours (or Alastair's, or mine).
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    edited July 2018

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Really, calm down and stop this. It's absurd, look at the actual numbers.

    Colin Ball took victory in both the Lichfield City Council and Lichfield District Council votes in the Curborough ward.

    The result sees Labour secure a seat held by the Conservatives until the death of Cllr Jeanette Allsopp earlier this year.

    Last time the ward was contested – in 2015 – the Tories won both seats with 790 and 795 votes; well clear of the 637 achieved by the nearest Labour candidate.

    But the collapse of the Friarsgate development has heaped pressure on the controlling Conservative group locally and they look to have paid the price at the polls.

    Lichfield District Council result (turnout 15.6%):

    Colin Ball (Labour) – 309
    Lee Cadwallader-Allan (Lib Dem) – 34
    Jayne Marks (Cons) – 169
    Lichfield City Council result (turnout 15.5%):

    Colin Ball (Lab) – 323
    Paul Jones (Cons) – 160
    Richard Rathbone (Lib Dem) – 26

    15.6% turnout. Labour's vote actually halved since the last time it was contested.

    Do you think Michael Fabricant, with over 60% vote share in the constituency, is at all worried by this?
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/06/government-has-no-clue-how-to-execute-brexit-without-harm-airbus-chief

    Of the 52% who voted for Brexit, about 4/5ths [ 40% of total ] could not give a shit if we became a third world country because they will have got their "independence".
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    The biggest errors have been a. Bothering to negotiate with the EU at all and b. Ramping things up about red lines so that a humiliation was inevitable.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,261

    So is the government going to fall apart over a deal the EU will reject anyway?

    The Versailles Treaty would have been considered too soft by the EU Commission.
    Do you think we'll end up occupied by France to enforce the terms?
    Well at least if we're forced to give up Trident it will save a lot money :wink:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    surby said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/06/government-has-no-clue-how-to-execute-brexit-without-harm-airbus-chief

    Of the 52% who voted for Brexit, about 4/5ths [ 40% of total ] could not give a shit if we became a third world country because they will have got their "independence".

    A third world country?
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,429

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Ohhhh Jereeemmmy Cooorrrbbbbyyyyynnnn

    YG are the new ICM Kaboooomers presumanly

    Other Britain Elects posts include:

    Kingsmead (Bath & North East Somerset) result:

    LDEM: 41.1% (+10.0)
    LAB: 24.6% (+11.6)
    CON: 21.3% (-6.8)
    GRN: 13.0% (-9.5)

    LDem GAIN from Con.

    No UKIP (-5.3) as prev.


    On "the UK changing the electoral system from First Past the Post to a system of Proportional Representation":

    Support: 51%
    Oppose: 13%


    "I think the share of seats a party wins should closely match the share of votes it receives":

    Agree: 66%
    Disagree: 7%
    What about the two aldermanic by-elections in the city of London yesterday? Independents won, as no politically designated candidates where standing. One of the wards is named Cheap I believe (probably the only thing which is in the City of London!)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited July 2018
    deleted
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    surby said:
    “We would not understand if the UK falls out of the Galileo project.

    “Beyond all the bickering and tactics and negotiation, both sides have a strong interest for further close cooperation with the UK on security and defence matters.

    “There are only two serious military forces in the EU today and one is the UK. Guess who is the other; it’s not Germany.”
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    RobD said:

    surby said:



    Sorry, we must get a vote to get us out of this horrible mess !!!!

    And if the vote doesn't go your way again, another vote?
    Good point. We also don't need any more elections, ever. We've already decided, no point changing our minds. That would be undemocratic.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    surby said:
    “We would not understand if the UK falls out of the Galileo project.

    “Beyond all the bickering and tactics and negotiation, both sides have a strong interest for further close cooperation with the UK on security and defence matters.

    “There are only two serious military forces in the EU today and one is the UK. Guess who is the other; it’s not Germany.”
    In any case I do not want the UK to be in the top 5 militarily in the EU. We will save a lot of money.
This discussion has been closed.