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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Chequers meeting goes Betfair punters make it a 29% cha

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Proper shitbaggery going on here.

    Chequers?

    Oh, the football...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    Pulpstar said:

    Proper shitbaggery going on here.

    Why was Mbppe booked ?
    I have no idea.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Jonathan said:

    notme said:

    Anazina said:

    Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

    https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

    Over £15k raised for it already

    He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....
    This isn't the Trump balloon
    My mistake. A nobody like Khan should be flattered....
    A nobody that has the largest personal mandate in Europe after the French president.

    Okay.
    And nothing has the biggest electoral mandate in Europe bigger than Brexit.
    Ahem

    Brexit 17,410,742 votes

    Macron 20,743,128 votes.
    Ahem

    Southgate 23.8M viewers
    ID guess Khan would barely compete with the Kardashians!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited July 2018
    Is trump's ego going to be able to take no buck palace, no speaking in palace of Westminster etc?
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    tpfkar said:

    Yes it's a pretty area, I've walked around it a few times. Indeed any self-respecting cabinet member who wants to resign wouldn't need to call a taxi; simply take the path to the west and you'll get to Little Kimble station, on the Marylebone line.
    It's only a couple of miles. They could have left the ministerial car in London and travelled that way in the morning. Then it would have shown the threat to deprive ministers of their ministerial cars as so much irrelevant posturing - and they might have had a chance for some Churchillian repartee with the proles on the train to stiffen their resolve on Brexit.
    To be fair, the vegetation's grown crazily this year after the wet spring and hot summer. It's also hot, so someone might get off the train at Kemble looking like you've just spent a few grand at Saville Row, and emerge a mile down the path looking like an eighteenth-Century Cornish pauper who has just lost a fight with Tom Harry.
    If they walk from Kemble to Chequers in this heat they'll certainly be a bit hot and bothered.

    (Little Kimble is near Chequers. Kemble is just outside Cirencester.)
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,123

    Proper shitbaggery going on here.

    Uruguay giving Colombia a master class in how to REALLY be a bunch of .....
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited July 2018
    Although this world cup has been great there has been quite a few teams who are world class at shitbaggary, less so at football.... Tunisia, Argentina, Columbia, Uruguay, Panama...
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,845
    I don't know why anyone would object to eel or tongue.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Is trump's ego going to be able to take no buck palace, no speaking in palace of Westminster etc?

    He gets Blenheim Palace, Chequers and Windsor Castle, before playing golf at his own golf resorts.

    I think his ego will survive the itinerary.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited July 2018

    Is trump's ego going to be able to take no buck palace, no speaking in palace of Westminster etc?

    He gets Blenheim Palace, Chequers and Windsor Castle, before playing golf at his own golf resorts.

    I think his ego will survive the itinerary.
    Wonder if he tell Queenie that she needs to hire his interior designers as his resorts are bigly better and everybody says so.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,672

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wondering exactly how the Queen will own the Donald. It is going to happen. It's just a question of how. Will she deploy the DoE, who can out Donald the Donald?
    PS The Queen will also be very respectful to The President of The United States of America too.
    She's charmed a lot worse than Trump....Ceaușescu, Suharto, Mubarak, Mugabe, Putin and five French Presidents.....
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Is trump's ego going to be able to take no buck palace, no speaking in palace of Westminster etc?

    He gets Blenheim Palace, Chequers and Windsor Castle, before playing golf at his own golf resorts.

    I think his ego will survive the itinerary.
    Wonder if he tell Queenie that she needs to hire his interior designers as his resorts are bigly better and everybody says so.
    Five or six years until we find out how Netflix choose to dramatise the visit if they bring The Crown up close to the present day.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,997

    tpfkar said:

    Yes it's a pretty area, I've walked around it a few times. Indeed any self-respecting cabinet member who wants to resign wouldn't need to call a taxi; simply take the path to the west and you'll get to Little Kimble station, on the Marylebone line.
    It's only a couple of miles. They could have left the ministerial car in London and travelled that way in the morning. Then it would have shown the threat to deprive ministers of their ministerial cars as so much irrelevant posturing - and they might have had a chance for some Churchillian repartee with the proles on the train to stiffen their resolve on Brexit.
    To be fair, the vegetation's grown crazily this year after the wet spring and hot summer. It's also hot, so someone might get off the train at Kemble looking like you've just spent a few grand at Saville Row, and emerge a mile down the path looking like an eighteenth-Century Cornish pauper who has just lost a fight with Tom Harry.
    If they walk from Kemble to Chequers in this heat they'll certainly be a bit hot and bothered.

    (Little Kimble is near Chequers. Kemble is just outside Cirencester.)
    Just a short walk for me. ;) I think you could do virtually the whole lot along National Trails: the Thames Path from Kemble to Goring, then the Ridgeway to Chequers.

    But yes, I miswrote. Actually, that would be quite a pleasant walk: both those trails are rather nice.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

    https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

    Over £15k raised for it already

    He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....
    This isn't the Trump balloon
    My mistake. A nobody like Khan should be flattered....
    A nobody that has the largest personal mandate in Europe after the French president.

    Okay.
    Not true, even if we ignore Putin on grounds of dubious democratic legitimacy, I think the Romanian president, for one, might dispute your assertion.
    Yes, apologies. I meant to write Western Europe but was rushing. I see several million PB posters have since corrected me!!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Apparently watford were keen on signing the Uruguay goalkeeper...I have a feeling his agent might now find his calls to them constantly going straight voicemail.
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Pulpstar said:

    Proper shitbaggery going on here.

    Why was Mbppe booked ?
    He pretended he was shot.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Sean_F said:

    I don't know why anyone would object to eel or tongue.
    I had tongue sandwiches for lunch today.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060

    Is trump's ego going to be able to take no buck palace, no speaking in palace of Westminster etc?

    He gets Blenheim Palace, Chequers and Windsor Castle, before playing golf at his own golf resorts.

    I think his ego will survive the itinerary.
    Wonder if he tell Queenie that she needs to hire his interior designers as his resorts are bigly better and everybody says so.
    Five or six years until we find out how Netflix choose to dramatise the visit if they bring The Crown up close to the present day.
    They can bond over their heirs. "My eldest son is a total loser so I'm planning to hand over to my daughter."
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Convincing by the French, if they play like this they'll beat Brazil.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    surby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Proper shitbaggery going on here.

    Why was Mbppe booked ?
    He pretended he was shot.
    Well hopefully that will be applied consistently, and to all going forward.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965
    Pulpstar said:

    Convincing by the French, if they play like this they'll beat Brazil.

    2 shots on target?
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    I think it is Fox after his meeting with May. He wants to be FS.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Convincing by the French, if they play like this they'll beat Brazil.

    2 shots on target?
    Uruguay's defence is better than Brazil's I think
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    kle4 said:

    If only Cameron really had "fought Brexit tooth and nail." But he spent the first 11 years of his leadership kowtowing to its supporters at every turn and only began to fight back in the few months before the referendum when it was far too late. Of course he is not solely responsible for the result but he certainly bears a bigger share of responsibility than any other individual.
    I don't see how kowtowing signifies responsibility. It didn't create the sentiment. And the sentiment carried the day. He didn't succeed in persuading the public, he's not responsible that a majority held a particular view. Even if not asked, clearly the sentiment against the EU must have been very bad, which would have had consequences.
    But Cameron pandered to Eurosceptic sentiment - he withdrew the Tories form the EPP, pretended that he was ambivalent about the UK's membership and then went through the charade of negotiating for a better deal when everyone involved knew that he was not going to recommend a leave vote under any circumstances. He shied away from confronting the headbangers himself in the hope that the voters would do it for him. As a result of which the country is in the worst mess since 1945 and, as an added bonus, the previously no-hoper Jeremy Corbyn is now a serious contender for power. That would not have come about without Brexit.
    Corbyn was more-or-less level pegging with Cameron in 2016 in April/May 2016.
    Exactly. Corbyn's position improved when the referendum campaign began and has continued to improve - somewhat erratically - since. But it was the 2017 election that really cemented his leadership and that election would not have taken place if there had been no EU referendum.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Brazil beating Belgium is far from certain....Brazil’s dodgy defence haven’t faced somebody like lakaku, who can on his day be world class and incredibly difficult to stop.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,123
    Excellent game management by France against a very tricksy opponent.

    Still looking good to me.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    Pulpstar said:

    Gove I reckon. H'es the most pragmatic, and cunning of the bunch,
    Could be Boris. He realizes Rees-Mogg has cornered the market on hard-Right-Trump-loving-Tory-Toff line and has decided to return to the liberal, pro-immigration Boris of yore.
    His ghostwriter has no doubt penned about 8 different flavours of remaining & Brexit, ready for Boris to sign off the one he feels best increases his chance of leadership.
    You mean you don't buy he does that as a thought experiment or whatever? For shame.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,123
    surby said:

    I think it is Fox after his meeting with May. He wants to be FS.
    Fox FS? FFS.....
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    France have been the best team so far. The match with Argentina was the best of the WC for me.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Sean_F said:

    I don't know why anyone would object to eel or tongue.
    Eel is delicious.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    Sam Coates Times
    ‏Verified account @SamCoatesTimes
    2m2 minutes ago

    Worth watching for the 5pm update of http://thetimes.co.uk

    (Although no, before you ask, no leaks from 'in the room')

    ooer
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Baby Balloons Battle update..

    It looks like Baby Khan is going to smash Baby Trump!

    In the 3 weeks that Baby Trump has been up he's raised £22,815

    In the first 26 hours for Baby Khan he's up to £18,346

    I think Baby Khan will take the lead tonight.

    Imagine winning that battle!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,123
    Sean_F said:

    I don't know why anyone would object to eel or tongue.
    Part of one of the best meals I have had in recent years (Michael Wignall at Gidleigh Park) was eel and white chocolate.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    Scott_P said:
    I'm sure the electorate of Broxtowe will oblige at the next available opportunity....
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Why have they changed the footballs for the knock out stages?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817


    Sam Coates Times
    ‏Verified account @SamCoatesTimes
    2m2 minutes ago

    Worth watching for the 5pm update of http://thetimes.co.uk

    (Although no, before you ask, no leaks from 'in the room')

    ooer

    Usually when journo's start ramping up the teasers it means a letdown's on the way...
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,897
    surby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Proper shitbaggery going on here.

    Why was Mbppe booked ?
    He pretended he was shot.
    That bet on Mbepe getting the Golden Ball award has suddenly gone mammary glads up.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    Scott_P said:
    They might say that . Would they do it?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    edited July 2018
    GIN1138 said:


    Sam Coates Times
    ‏Verified account @SamCoatesTimes
    2m2 minutes ago

    Worth watching for the 5pm update of http://thetimes.co.uk

    (Although no, before you ask, no leaks from 'in the room')

    ooer

    Usually when journo's start ramping up the teasers it means a letdown's on the way...
    I think we all know it's time for a dose of fudge before Barnier slaps it down in a week or so, and round and round we go.

    It'd be nice if after today the cabinet were united, but given the leaks before hand, any fudged option they claim makes them united will be load of guff.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The carnage in the Women's draw at Wimbledon continues.

    And David Cameron is in the Royal box
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    I'm sure the electorate of Broxtowe will oblige at the next available opportunity....
    Possibly not. It is a hyper tight marginal and the Labour candidate is iirc an out and out Corbynista.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216

    Baby Balloons Battle update..

    It looks like Baby Khan is going to smash Baby Trump!

    In the 3 weeks that Baby Trump has been up he's raised £22,815

    In the first 26 hours for Baby Khan he's up to £18,346

    I think Baby Khan will take the lead tonight.

    Imagine winning that battle!

    I suggest Pink Floyd send the flying pig back up.
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Scott_P said:
    Bit surprised by the analysis and the usual guff we hear that Labour will lose zillions of seats if it took an anti-Brexit stance.

    If that were so, then Labour would not have won Hemsworth [ Leave 23000, Remain 13000 ] in 2017. Labour won by 25700 to 15500.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,845


    Sam Coates Times
    ‏Verified account @SamCoatesTimes
    2m2 minutes ago

    Worth watching for the 5pm update of http://thetimes.co.uk

    (Although no, before you ask, no leaks from 'in the room')

    ooer

    It's like dramatic opinion polls that show a 1 or 2% shift.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    Scott_P said:
    It's TM... Of course it'll be fudge.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,845
    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    Bit surprised by the analysis and the usual guff we hear that Labour will lose zillions of seats if it took an anti-Brexit stance.

    If that were so, then Labour would not have won Hemsworth [ Leave 23000, Remain 13000 ] in 2017. Labour won by 25700 to 15500.
    I think his view is that it would be a wash for Labour if they changed their stance.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    This is The Times story

    Boris Johnson was “blaming everyone but himself” for the state of Brexit at a meeting with David Cameron last night before the cabinet meeting at Chequers today, The Times understands.

    It was revealed this morning that the foreign secretary met the former prime minister and discussed Theresa May’s Brexit blueprint.

    One account of the meeting suggested that both men agreed that Mrs May’s plan was the “worst of all worlds”. They added that Mr Cameron agreed it was time he took pride in being the “father of Brexit”.

    But Mr Cameron has disowned that claim and rejected outright attempts to paint him as an enthusiastic Brexiteer. It prompted apoplexy among allies of the former prime minister, who said that he has always consistently advocated a Norway-style soft Brexit, and regarded Mr Johnson’s approach as “fantasy” which ignored key problems.

    “When they met it was all whingeing, with Boris blaming everyone but himself,” a source said. They added that Mr Johnson now believes that Brexit could have been better delivered if the party had chosen a prime minister in 2016 who voted for Brexit, like Michael Gove. Mr Gove betrayed Mr Johnson during the leadership contest, with both men’s bids ending in failure.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/chequers-taxis-on-standby-for-rebel-ministers-who-resign-during-brexit-showdown-2d2rggcq3
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    Today government sources issued a bullish statement and released the names of six individuals who could replace any Brexiteers who might resign. They are Dominic Raab, the housing minister, Rishi Sunak, the communities minister, Stuart Andrew, the whip, Alex Burghart, a parliamentary private secretary, and Kit Malthouse, who used to work for Mr Johnson.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    Bit surprised by the analysis and the usual guff we hear that Labour will lose zillions of seats if it took an anti-Brexit stance.

    If that were so, then Labour would not have won Hemsworth [ Leave 23000, Remain 13000 ] in 2017. Labour won by 25700 to 15500.
    Labpur only won that Lichfield by election yesterday you have been crowing about by winning over UKIP voters due to Corbyn's backing Brexit and leaving the single market
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817

    This is The Times story

    Boris Johnson was “blaming everyone but himself” for the state of Brexit at a meeting with David Cameron last night before the cabinet meeting at Chequers today, The Times understands.

    It was revealed this morning that the foreign secretary met the former prime minister and discussed Theresa May’s Brexit blueprint.

    One account of the meeting suggested that both men agreed that Mrs May’s plan was the “worst of all worlds”. They added that Mr Cameron agreed it was time he took pride in being the “father of Brexit”.

    But Mr Cameron has disowned that claim and rejected outright attempts to paint him as an enthusiastic Brexiteer. It prompted apoplexy among allies of the former prime minister, who said that he has always consistently advocated a Norway-style soft Brexit, and regarded Mr Johnson’s approach as “fantasy” which ignored key problems.

    “When they met it was all whingeing, with Boris blaming everyone but himself,” a source said. They added that Mr Johnson now believes that Brexit could have been better delivered if the party had chosen a prime minister in 2016 who voted for Brexit, like Michael Gove. Mr Gove betrayed Mr Johnson during the leadership contest, with both men’s bids ending in failure.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/chequers-taxis-on-standby-for-rebel-ministers-who-resign-during-brexit-showdown-2d2rggcq3

    "It prompted apoplexy among allies of the former prime minister,"

    George Osborne had a long lunch with someone today? :D
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,845

    Today government sources issued a bullish statement and released the names of six individuals who could replace any Brexiteers who might resign. They are Dominic Raab, the housing minister, Rishi Sunak, the communities minister, Stuart Andrew, the whip, Alex Burghart, a parliamentary private secretary, and Kit Malthouse, who used to work for Mr Johnson.

    How about Christopher Chope?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    GIN1138 said:

    This is The Times story

    Boris Johnson was “blaming everyone but himself” for the state of Brexit at a meeting with David Cameron last night before the cabinet meeting at Chequers today, The Times understands.

    It was revealed this morning that the foreign secretary met the former prime minister and discussed Theresa May’s Brexit blueprint.

    One account of the meeting suggested that both men agreed that Mrs May’s plan was the “worst of all worlds”. They added that Mr Cameron agreed it was time he took pride in being the “father of Brexit”.

    But Mr Cameron has disowned that claim and rejected outright attempts to paint him as an enthusiastic Brexiteer. It prompted apoplexy among allies of the former prime minister, who said that he has always consistently advocated a Norway-style soft Brexit, and regarded Mr Johnson’s approach as “fantasy” which ignored key problems.

    “When they met it was all whingeing, with Boris blaming everyone but himself,” a source said. They added that Mr Johnson now believes that Brexit could have been better delivered if the party had chosen a prime minister in 2016 who voted for Brexit, like Michael Gove. Mr Gove betrayed Mr Johnson during the leadership contest, with both men’s bids ending in failure.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/chequers-taxis-on-standby-for-rebel-ministers-who-resign-during-brexit-showdown-2d2rggcq3

    "It prompted apoplexy among allies of the former prime minister,"

    George Osborne had a long lunch with someone today? :D
    Nah.

    Even I called it right the moment the story broke.

    Anyone who knows David Cameron knew that story was bollocks, and it just confirmed that Boris is a lying shit.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1015267989397147648

    And that is before any fudge to keep brexiteers happy...seems like everybody is just wasting their time.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    Sean_F said:

    Today government sources issued a bullish statement and released the names of six individuals who could replace any Brexiteers who might resign. They are Dominic Raab, the housing minister, Rishi Sunak, the communities minister, Stuart Andrew, the whip, Alex Burghart, a parliamentary private secretary, and Kit Malthouse, who used to work for Mr Johnson.

    How about Christopher Chope?
    He's been pissing off even more Tories today.

    https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1015242397318615040
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817

    Today government sources issued a bullish statement and released the names of six individuals who could replace any Brexiteers who might resign. They are Dominic Raab, the housing minister, Rishi Sunak, the communities minister, Stuart Andrew, the whip, Alex Burghart, a parliamentary private secretary, and Kit Malthouse, who used to work for Mr Johnson.

    Other than Raab I've never heard of any of them?
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Sean_F said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    Bit surprised by the analysis and the usual guff we hear that Labour will lose zillions of seats if it took an anti-Brexit stance.

    If that were so, then Labour would not have won Hemsworth [ Leave 23000, Remain 13000 ] in 2017. Labour won by 25700 to 15500.
    I think his view is that it would be a wash for Labour if they changed their stance.
    OK. In that case why not make the members and party activists happy.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    GIN1138 said:

    Today government sources issued a bullish statement and released the names of six individuals who could replace any Brexiteers who might resign. They are Dominic Raab, the housing minister, Rishi Sunak, the communities minister, Stuart Andrew, the whip, Alex Burghart, a parliamentary private secretary, and Kit Malthouse, who used to work for Mr Johnson.

    Other than Raab I've never heard of any of them?
    I campaigned for Stuart in 2015, top bloke.

    https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/leeds-mp-beaten-unconscious-in-homophobic-attack-hits-out-at-tory-gay-marriage-rebels-1-5694767

    Heard lots of good things about Rishi Sunak/
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,845

    Sean_F said:

    Today government sources issued a bullish statement and released the names of six individuals who could replace any Brexiteers who might resign. They are Dominic Raab, the housing minister, Rishi Sunak, the communities minister, Stuart Andrew, the whip, Alex Burghart, a parliamentary private secretary, and Kit Malthouse, who used to work for Mr Johnson.

    How about Christopher Chope?
    He's been pissing off even more Tories today.

    https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1015242397318615040
    On that issue, I think that Chope is correct.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    BMG poll for Change Britain sees the Tories losing votes if they back soft Brexit as alluded to earlier by JRM.

    32% of all voters and 46% of Tories would be less likely to vote Conservative if the EU Court still holds sway over UK laws compared to just 6% of all voters and 10% of Tories more likely.

    25% of voters are less likely to vote Conservative if the UK's ability to negotiate trade deals is restricted to just 10% more likely and 17% of all voters are less likely to vote Conservative and 35% of Tories if we have to pay a big bill for a trade deal with the EU compared to 9% of all voters and 12% of Tories who would be more likely

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Change_Britain/status/1015179046005587968/photo/1
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Moeen Ali dropped, jake ball in for the T20
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    edited July 2018
    As someone said, if there are no resignations, it proves another fudge has given served. May is just indecisive and gutless.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,845
    surby said:

    Sean_F said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    Bit surprised by the analysis and the usual guff we hear that Labour will lose zillions of seats if it took an anti-Brexit stance.

    If that were so, then Labour would not have won Hemsworth [ Leave 23000, Remain 13000 ] in 2017. Labour won by 25700 to 15500.
    I think his view is that it would be a wash for Labour if they changed their stance.
    OK. In that case why not make the members and party activists happy.
    Because the Labour leader has always favoured Brexit.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    surby said:

    As someone said, if there are no resignations, it proves another fudge has given served. May is just indecisive and gutless.

    Why bother to resign, when you know the EU is going to reject this half-baked fudge as unworkable nonsense in which a Third Country collects taxes on its behalf?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited July 2018
    surby said:

    Sean_F said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    Bit surprised by the analysis and the usual guff we hear that Labour will lose zillions of seats if it took an anti-Brexit stance.

    If that were so, then Labour would not have won Hemsworth [ Leave 23000, Remain 13000 ] in 2017. Labour won by 25700 to 15500.
    I think his view is that it would be a wash for Labour if they changed their stance.
    OK. In that case why not make the members and party activists happy.
    If Labour promises to reverse Brexit or stay in the single market with free movement they instantly lose all the former UKIP voters Corbyn gained while gaining few if any Remainers, Tory Remainers would vote LD not Corbyn at most and LD Remainers are unlikely to switch given the LDs have been more committed to opposing hard Brexit.

    Some working class Labour Leave voters may switch to the Tories too
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    surby said:

    As someone said, if there are no resignations, it proves another fudge has given served. May is just indecisive and gutless.

    Or it means the Brexiteers are playing for time.

    They know TM/Robbins deal won't fly with the EU and they are keeping themselves in the game to ensure it's a "No Deal" when the clock runs down...

    *Tick. Tock*
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    Bit surprised by the analysis and the usual guff we hear that Labour will lose zillions of seats if it took an anti-Brexit stance.

    If that were so, then Labour would not have won Hemsworth [ Leave 23000, Remain 13000 ] in 2017. Labour won by 25700 to 15500.
    Labpur only won that Lichfield by election yesterday you have been crowing about by winning over UKIP voters due to Corbyn's backing Brexit and leaving the single market
    They are coming home, coming home, coming home........... Labour would have won anyway. Everyone do not vote around Remain/Leave lines.
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    Today government sources issued a bullish statement and released the names of six individuals who could replace any Brexiteers who might resign. They are Dominic Raab, the housing minister, Rishi Sunak, the communities minister, Stuart Andrew, the whip, Alex Burghart, a parliamentary private secretary, and Kit Malthouse, who used to work for Mr Johnson.

    But most are gutless wimps. No one will resign even if the UK withdrew Art.50.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745

    surby said:

    As someone said, if there are no resignations, it proves another fudge has given served. May is just indecisive and gutless.

    Why bother to resign, when you know the EU is going to reject this half-baked fudge as unworkable nonsense in which a Third Country collects taxes on its behalf?
    Which by not resigning you are on board as saying is a great idea, and you cannot then say May is doing a bad job or leading us down the wrong path.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335
    HYUFD said:

    BMG poll for Change Britain sees the Tories losing votes if they back soft Brexit as alluded to earlier by JRM.

    32% of all voters and 46% of Tories would be less likely to vote Conservative if the EU Court still holds sway over UK laws compared to just 6% of all voters and 10% of Tories more likely.

    25% of voters are less likely to vote Conservative if the UK's ability to negotiate trade deals is restricted to just 10% more likely and 17% of all voters are less likely to vote Conservative and 35% of Tories if we have to pay a big bill for a trade deal with the EU compared to 9% of all voters and 12% of Tories who would be more likely

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Change_Britain/status/1015179046005587968/photo/1

    I'm wary of this sort of poll. If I'm asked "Would doing more for animal welfare make you more likely to vote for X", I'll always say yes, but in reality my vote isn't going anywhere differently from where it always has, unless Corbyn actually announces he's going to reintroduce bear-baiting.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    edited July 2018
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Today government sources issued a bullish statement and released the names of six individuals who could replace any Brexiteers who might resign. They are Dominic Raab, the housing minister, Rishi Sunak, the communities minister, Stuart Andrew, the whip, Alex Burghart, a parliamentary private secretary, and Kit Malthouse, who used to work for Mr Johnson.

    How about Christopher Chope?
    He's been pissing off even more Tories today.

    https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1015242397318615040
    On that issue, I think that Chope is correct.
    As ever with him though, if his objections are on a procedural point as stated, then he is not correct, since he is not objecting to the contents of that bill, indeed he might think it a decent enough idea for all we know. He has a problem with technicalities. If he is against the contents, then that is a happy coincidence.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Sean_F said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    Bit surprised by the analysis and the usual guff we hear that Labour will lose zillions of seats if it took an anti-Brexit stance.

    If that were so, then Labour would not have won Hemsworth [ Leave 23000, Remain 13000 ] in 2017. Labour won by 25700 to 15500.
    I think his view is that it would be a wash for Labour if they changed their stance.
    I think he is right. O half wonder if Labour can easily get any more blue/red switches while the leadership is so left-wing.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    kle4 said:

    surby said:

    As someone said, if there are no resignations, it proves another fudge has given served. May is just indecisive and gutless.

    Why bother to resign, when you know the EU is going to reject this half-baked fudge as unworkable nonsense in which a Third Country collects taxes on its behalf?
    Which by not resigning you are on board as saying is a great idea, and you cannot then say May is doing a bad job or leading us down the wrong path.
    You wanna bet? :lol:

    I suggest a quick look at this Sunday's papers!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    surby said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    Bit surprised by the analysis and the usual guff we hear that Labour will lose zillions of seats if it took an anti-Brexit stance.

    If that were so, then Labour would not have won Hemsworth [ Leave 23000, Remain 13000 ] in 2017. Labour won by 25700 to 15500.
    Labpur only won that Lichfield by election yesterday you have been crowing about by winning over UKIP voters due to Corbyn's backing Brexit and leaving the single market
    They are coming home, coming home, coming home........... Labour would have won anyway. Everyone do not vote around Remain/Leave lines.
    No they do not, UKIP voters certainly do vote on Leave lines given they voted for a party that put leaving the EU and reducing immigration above all else, Corbyn stops backing Brexit and leaving the single market and those UKIP voters go back to UKIP or stay at home or even go Tory
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745

    HYUFD said:

    BMG poll for Change Britain sees the Tories losing votes if they back soft Brexit as alluded to earlier by JRM.

    32% of all voters and 46% of Tories would be less likely to vote Conservative if the EU Court still holds sway over UK laws compared to just 6% of all voters and 10% of Tories more likely.

    25% of voters are less likely to vote Conservative if the UK's ability to negotiate trade deals is restricted to just 10% more likely and 17% of all voters are less likely to vote Conservative and 35% of Tories if we have to pay a big bill for a trade deal with the EU compared to 9% of all voters and 12% of Tories who would be more likely

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Change_Britain/status/1015179046005587968/photo/1

    I'm wary of this sort of poll. If I'm asked "Would doing more for animal welfare make you more likely to vote for X", I'll always say yes, but in reality my vote isn't going anywhere differently from where it always has, unless Corbyn actually announces he's going to reintroduce bear-baiting.
    Agreed. The strength of the political tribes is strong, and a lot of people will claim unhappiness with some pretty major things without jumping ships or even sitting out. We always move on to the next justification for not doing so.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Sean_F said:

    Today government sources issued a bullish statement and released the names of six individuals who could replace any Brexiteers who might resign. They are Dominic Raab, the housing minister, Rishi Sunak, the communities minister, Stuart Andrew, the whip, Alex Burghart, a parliamentary private secretary, and Kit Malthouse, who used to work for Mr Johnson.

    How about Christopher Chope?
    Object!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005

    HYUFD said:

    BMG poll for Change Britain sees the Tories losing votes if they back soft Brexit as alluded to earlier by JRM.

    32% of all voters and 46% of Tories would be less likely to vote Conservative if the EU Court still holds sway over UK laws compared to just 6% of all voters and 10% of Tories more likely.

    25% of voters are less likely to vote Conservative if the UK's ability to negotiate trade deals is restricted to just 10% more likely and 17% of all voters are less likely to vote Conservative and 35% of Tories if we have to pay a big bill for a trade deal with the EU compared to 9% of all voters and 12% of Tories who would be more likely

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Change_Britain/status/1015179046005587968/photo/1

    I'm wary of this sort of poll. If I'm asked "Would doing more for animal welfare make you more likely to vote for X", I'll always say yes, but in reality my vote isn't going anywhere differently from where it always has, unless Corbyn actually announces he's going to reintroduce bear-baiting.
    A poll with party choices after backing soft or hard Brexit would certainly be interesting
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745

    kle4 said:

    surby said:

    As someone said, if there are no resignations, it proves another fudge has given served. May is just indecisive and gutless.

    Why bother to resign, when you know the EU is going to reject this half-baked fudge as unworkable nonsense in which a Third Country collects taxes on its behalf?
    Which by not resigning you are on board as saying is a great idea, and you cannot then say May is doing a bad job or leading us down the wrong path.
    You wanna bet? :lol:

    I suggest a quick look at this Sunday's papers!
    You cannot do so without looking like a berk I mean:)

    Davis and Boris for instance are always whinging but if they don't do anything about it and stick around, I sure won't believe them when they claim it was so obviously going to be a disaster down the line, given they do have the power to provoke a contest and potentially stop things.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335

    Today government sources issued a bullish statement and released the names of six individuals who could replace any Brexiteers who might resign. They are Dominic Raab, the housing minister, Rishi Sunak, the communities minister, Stuart Andrew, the whip, Alex Burghart, a parliamentary private secretary, and Kit Malthouse, who used to work for Mr Johnson.

    That's a very remarkable tactic that I've not seen in politics before. It will annoy loyalists who are not on the list ("you may be loyal but you're not one of our top 6 loyalists, sorry mate") and I wonder if it will stiffen rather than weaken the backbones of the targets ("You're going to replace me with WHO?"). But the six themselves should be very pleased.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    On the question of labour and Brexit, it's not clear that opposing Hard Brexit wins Labour too many votes per se. But that last qualification is important. A Labour party that wanted, say, EEA, would finish up a more cohesive and coherent party, and those qualities would drive votes.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited July 2018
    Deleted. Nick Palmer has made the same point, better.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Which it is. It is a demand that can't be accepted. If the EU do not bend, and show no sign of doing so, remaining or no Deal are the only options that look probable.
    So, the beastly EU we have voted to Leave have been so beastly in not agreeing to the terms for our leaving that we'll have to stay. Right...

    The political life expectency of any PM who agreed to that would be measured in picoseconds.

    So no deal it is.
    I didn't say we must stay. The point was that if our option on leaving is unacceptable to them, and theirs is unacceptable to us, and neither side can or will bend enough, you either have to no deal or change course entirely. I don't believe that things get too hard will lead us to remain, but it or no Deal seem the only options on the table unless the previously intractable become tractable.

    Ive also said repeatedly an accidental no deal is most likely. We cannot bend on this point, and that has to mean no deal if the EU persists .
    But no deal is not an option
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    edited July 2018
    Good evening Dr Palmer.

    Not sure we've conversed much recently but... OK and well done for being right! :D
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    edited July 2018

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Which it is. It is a demand that can't be accepted. If the EU do not bend, and show no sign of doing so, remaining or no Deal are the only options that look probable.
    So, the beastly EU we have voted to Leave have been so beastly in not agreeing to the terms for our leaving that we'll have to stay. Right...

    The political life expectency of any PM who agreed to that would be measured in picoseconds.

    So no deal it is.
    I didn't say we must stay. The point was that if our option on leaving is unacceptable to them, and theirs is unacceptable to us, and neither side can or will bend enough, you either have to no deal or change course entirely. I don't believe that things get too hard will lead us to remain, but it or no Deal seem the only options on the table unless the previously intractable become tractable.

    Ive also said repeatedly an accidental no deal is most likely. We cannot bend on this point, and that has to mean no deal if the EU persists .
    But no deal is not an option
    Say's who?

    "No Deal" is the inevitable/default outcome once the clock runs out if a deal can't be agreed...
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,601
    Silverstone is going to be very hot, fast, and bumpy according to reports - "most physical race of the season' says Hamilton. (And Grosjean and Verstappen have already pranged their cars in practice.)

    Evens on there being 15 or fewer classified finishers (i.e. must complete 90% of the race) looks decent odds perhaps ?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,601

    Today government sources issued a bullish statement and released the names of six individuals who could replace any Brexiteers who might resign. They are Dominic Raab, the housing minister, Rishi Sunak, the communities minister, Stuart Andrew, the whip, Alex Burghart, a parliamentary private secretary, and Kit Malthouse, who used to work for Mr Johnson.

    That's a very remarkable tactic that I've not seen in politics before. It will annoy loyalists who are not on the list ("you may be loyal but you're not one of our top 6 loyalists, sorry mate") and I wonder if it will stiffen rather than weaken the backbones of the targets ("You're going to replace me with WHO?"). But the six themselves should be very pleased.
    Might cheer up a few more who regard most of the existing cabinet as crap ?
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