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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The fly in the ointment? How Brexit may be delayed by no deal

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Gove on Marr - If the EU is inflexible we have to be prepared to walk away without a deal
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Does the DUP actually WANT a hard border in Ireland? I was quite surprised by how pro-brexit the unionists were.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive

    A deal that ignores Services is very bad for business. That’s why there is more ground for the government to give.

    How does the government get a deal which includes services? How do they get one along the lines of what they've even proposed, given so many think it will be rejected?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Scott_P said:
    “You have to get behind someone before you can stab them in the back.”

    Remember Boris. One rule of politics, do not trust Gove.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Foxy said:


    Off to see the Finland Station, Cruiser Aurora, Peters Cabin, Peter and Paul fortress and Artillery museum shortly when Fox jr finishes his shower. Definitely a boys trip!

    Sounds more like a boy scouts' trip. Get yourselves to the Hungry Duck or the Cosmos Hotel for the full strength Moscow experience.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    FF43 said:

    Are the "100 entrepreneurs and business leaders" equivalent to the 364 economists who got it so totally wrong ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44755049

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3623669/How-364-economists-got-it-totally-wrong.html

    Business generally expects to work with whatever environment it finds itself in and is pretty hardy. It's not above special pleading however. In this case it's just pleading. No-one can plan.
    Entrepreneurs and business leaders are a lot of very different sorts of people. Of course you hate change and uncertainty if you run a large established oligopoly like a car manufacturer, and everything is going your way under the established order. Then again you also like poisoning and defrauding the world at large by emissions cheating. For new businesses change at least sometimes means opportunity.

    And change and uncertainty are the human condition anyway, it's not as if the weather or the oil price or interest rates or pretty much anything else were predictable from five years out. If you don't like that state of affairs you are probably too snowflakey to be a successful business leader in the first place.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:


    Off to see the Finland Station, Cruiser Aurora, Peters Cabin, Peter and Paul fortress and Artillery museum shortly when Fox jr finishes his shower. Definitely a boys trip!

    Sounds more like a boy scouts' trip. Get yourselves to the Hungry Duck or the Cosmos Hotel for the full strength Moscow experience.
    On our silver wedding anniversary in 1989 we stayed at the Cosmos Hotel and it was an experience
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Are the "100 entrepreneurs and business leaders" equivalent to the 364 economists who got it so totally wrong ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44755049

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3623669/How-364-economists-got-it-totally-wrong.html

    The 364 economists didn't get it wrong.

    http://www.res.org.uk/view/article4Oct12Feature.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive
    Pity it is all such a ludicrous waste of time. The EU wont accept this plan.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive
    Pity it is all such a ludicrous waste of time. The EU wont accept this plan.
    And Gove went on to say we will walk away
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    kle4 said:

    Mr. kle4, run both, highlighting the juxtaposition.

    I was thinking more just how many pages each would get, and the dramatic shifts in tone.
    The papers all have their own versions of Operation London Bridge ready to go, there might be a photo of the winning team sombrely departing the plane in black suits with no fanfare on the back page.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. P, I wonder if that (potential free movement) means that a second referendum is likely, or if the pro-EU types prefer to utterly denude us of influence whilst at the same time maintaining EU influence over us.

    It does feel like this could be preparing the ground for another vote. If not, and the deal, such as it is (and it'll only move the EU's way in negotiation, as May has proven by her twin tactics of prevarication and capitulation), is accepted, we'll end up with something worse than both membership of and leaving the EU.

    A vote on This Incredibly Bad Deal We've Negotiated versus Membership could be won by the Remain side. But it'd prove a tactical triumph for a serious strategic cost.

    The alternative, (the deal going through, no new referendum), would have the facade of respecting the vote, but would be akin to the actions of Brown when he signed the Lisbon Treaty having promised a referendum on the identical (save for the heading and font) Constitution.

    Unfortunately, like Emperor Palpatine, this is all proceeding as I have foreseen.

    [At the risk of banging on about it, the end point of said Prophecy of Morris Dancer is the rise of the far right in UK politics. So, let's hope I start being wrong].

    Mr. Recidivist, :p
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive
    Pity it is all such a ludicrous waste of time. The EU wont accept this plan.
    And Gove went on to say we will walk away
    Not sure I believe that, but perhaps that is how all the Brexiteers were brought on board - look, we'll accept trying for this, lame as it is, but if it doesn't work, that's it, all you remainers have to commit to No deal.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    They should have been careful what they wished for. For months, the Kamikaze Brexiteers have been ordering Theresa May to be strong.

    Show some Thatcherite steel, they demanded. Stand up for Britain. If anyone attempts to get in your way – and sabotage Brexit – crush them.

    So she did. To borrow a well-worn phrase, the Prime Minister took back control. Of her Cabinet. Of her Government. Of the negotiations that will define the destiny of the United Kingdom for a generation.


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-5929783/Iron-Lady-Theresa-crushed-egos-weasels-deliver-Brexit.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. kle4, possibly. But it may turn out like the Selmayr[sp] gambit Juncker used to get his goblin into place in the EU (SG of the Commission).

    It was irregular, I gather, but Juncker gathered those who had to agree on Selmayr's appointment as deputy secretary-general. They agreed, then minutes later learnt the current SG was going to resign, meaning Selmayr would become the secretary-general.

    In short, don't vote for something if you don't want the consequences, or potential consequences to occur.

    "Just back this, they'll never agree."

    What if the EU does?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Mr. kle4, possibly. But it may turn out like the Selmayr[sp] gambit Juncker used to get his goblin into place in the EU (SG of the Commission).

    It was irregular, I gather, but Juncker gathered those who had to agree on Selmayr's appointment as deputy secretary-general. They agreed, then minutes later learnt the current SG was going to resign, meaning Selmayr would become the secretary-general.

    In short, don't vote for something if you don't want the consequences, or potential consequences to occur.

    "Just back this, they'll never agree."

    What if the EU does?

    Which is why I'm not sure I believe it. I think it more likely that the more ardent Brexiteers were put on the spot by May 'Well what's your plan then, genius?' and they had nothing, and were not prepared to bring her down right now. For the same reason if the EU rejects, but leaves some wiggle room to make it work if the UK makes yet more concessions, I imagine they will, they will just claim it is not that much of a concession.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited July 2018
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    Ishmael_Z said:

    FF43 said:

    Are the "100 entrepreneurs and business leaders" equivalent to the 364 economists who got it so totally wrong ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44755049

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3623669/How-364-economists-got-it-totally-wrong.html

    Business generally expects to work with whatever environment it finds itself in and is pretty hardy. It's not above special pleading however. In this case it's just pleading. No-one can plan.
    Entrepreneurs and business leaders are a lot of very different sorts of people. Of course you hate change and uncertainty if you run a large established oligopoly like a car manufacturer, and everything is going your way under the established order. Then again you also like poisoning and defrauding the world at large by emissions cheating. For new businesses change at least sometimes means opportunity.

    And change and uncertainty are the human condition anyway, it's not as if the weather or the oil price or interest rates or pretty much anything else were predictable from five years out. If you don't like that state of affairs you are probably too snowflakey to be a successful business leader in the first place.
    The interests of the businesses and the places they are located in aren't necessarily aligned. If you are the CEO of JLR with a £50 billion investment in the UK you will want want to stay (while divesting as much as is sensible elsewhere). Anyone who isn't already committed won't touch the country with a bargepole in the current circumstances. The government needs to give businesses reasons for getting their bargepoles out. It is not doing so.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    If Corbyn does have a chance- ever-it'll be down to the opportunism of the Tory factions. I can't remember a time when so many politicians from the same party gave the impression thety were just out for themselves. I can't think of a single one who looks like they give a damn about the country.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,877

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive
    Pity it is all such a ludicrous waste of time. The EU wont accept this plan.

    It’s a starting point. The key is to begin talking. Once that happens a deal will be done.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive
    Pity it is all such a ludicrous waste of time. The EU wont accept this plan.
    The EU will be able to say we've got the British to accept our rules, as a rule-taker, in goods and agriculture where we have a huge trade surplus with no votes, making payments for it, and subject to the EFTA court or ECJ or similar, whilst having no deal in services, and having much freer movement than originally anticipated.

    It's an extremely good deal for the EU. The only question is where the "balance of rights and obligations" camp wins out (basically the EU27) or the "indivisible four freedoms" camp wins out, basically the EU apparatchiks and the Commission.

    My money is a lot of rhetoric on the latter, a few extra concessions by the UK, but basically a deal on the former. In the medium-long term, I'd expect us to arrange a mechanism to have informal input into the rule-making as well, because we will otherwise start to drift away.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive
    Pity it is all such a ludicrous waste of time. The EU wont accept this plan.

    It’s a starting point. The key is to begin talking. Once that happens a deal will be done.

    The EU will not agree to a bad deal for itself because of a phoney sense of urgency created by Brexit.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive
    Pity it is all such a ludicrous waste of time. The EU wont accept this plan.
    Ultimately the plan won't see the light of day. There's the basis of a cracking deal for the EU where we give them our services trade as just one of the (massive) prices to pay for pretending we have stopped FoM. Most likely we will end up with SM+CU however. We have managed to manoeuvre ourselves into a situation where ALL our options are REALLY bad. I think it's only just dawning on people just how bad those options are.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    In the medium-long term, I'd expect us to arrange a mechanism to have informal input into the rule-making as well, because we will otherwise start to drift away.

    How is this deal balanced on rights and obligations when your interpretation of it is that we can drive a coach and horses through the obligations unless the EU allows us to influence its laws?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    FF43 said:

    I think it's only just dawning on people just how bad those options are.

    Some of us have been saying it for 2 years...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive
    Objective number one, for me, with Brexit is detaching the UK from the EU's political institutions and its political project in one piece.

    Gove is also playing the long-game.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Royale, will we? The political class is pretty pro-EU. The media likewise. The Civil Service seems to practically have it as a job requirement.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    I think it's only just dawning on people just how bad those options are.

    Some of us have been saying it for 2 years...
    Indeed. Faced with a clusterfuck, some of us voted against it. Others preferred not to do so. Mileages vary.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    What really needs to be considered is 'what is a deal?' Whether the EU accepts May's plans or not they will almost certainly say far more work is needed before a FTA can be agreed with the UK.

    At most they will say enough has been done to agree a transition period until December 2020 with FTA arrangements negotiated during that transition. So the only 'deal' that will be some before Brexit next March is a basic exit deal on citizens rights and the exit bill and the Irish border as set out in December and in May's plans and confirmation of the transition period. In terms of agreeing a FTA deal inevitably that will not be completed before we leave the EU
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Scott_P said:
    Europhiles getting confused between a single market and free trade area again.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited July 2018
    https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1015890794148978688?s=20

    To paraphrase, “When you come for the queen, you best not miss”.

    If they do try, they’ll miss, and we’ll see a crushing of sabateurs the like of which we haven’t seen in a long while.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive

    A deal that ignores Services is very bad for business. That’s why there is more ground for the government to give.

    I think arrangements on those are being parked for the full FTA to be negotiated in the transition period.

    However, HMG (including many Remainers) have already declared the importance of the UK having full freedom in digital, tech, and BoE independence. I think the UK can grow services markets pretty quickly worldwide; it doesn't have the same political sensitivities that NI or car/aeroplane manufacturing do. Financial services (retail) may take a small hit, but not an excessive one, and otherwise we'll be ok - I expect free-ish movement for professionals.

    My firm is now targeting Canada, the US, Asia, Australia, and Sweden/Germany as well as the UK. They are setting up a small office in Germany, but they are also doing so in the US.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Europhiles getting confused between a single market and free trade area again.
    Which one is the market that stretches from Iceland to the Russian border (known as the EEA)?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive
    Pity it is all such a ludicrous waste of time. The EU wont accept this plan.
    Ultimately the plan won't see the light of day. There's the basis of a cracking deal for the EU where we give them our services trade as just one of the (massive) prices to pay for pretending we have stopped FoM. Most likely we will end up with SM+CU however. We have managed to manoeuvre ourselves into a situation where ALL our options are REALLY bad. I think it's only just dawning on people just how bad those options are.
    It's dawning on people just how bad our negotiators are.

    But, when you staff the abattoir full of vegetarians, don't expect steak for dinner.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited July 2018
    Roger said:

    If Corbyn does have a chance- ever-it'll be down to the opportunism of the Tory factions. I can't remember a time when so many politicians from the same party gave the impression thety were just out for themselves. I can't think of a single one who looks like they give a damn about the country.

    If anyone has been opportunistic about Brexit it is Corbyn. Technically backing Remain while doing sod all to campaign for it and dissuade working class Labour voters from voting Leave. After the referendum result and tge Leave won attacking May's Brexit plans and promising 'a customs union' with the EU but not the Customs Union but still committing to leaving the EU and the single market for Leavers
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    In the medium-long term, I'd expect us to arrange a mechanism to have informal input into the rule-making as well, because we will otherwise start to drift away.

    How is this deal balanced on rights and obligations when your interpretation of it is that we can drive a coach and horses through the obligations unless the EU allows us to influence its laws?
    I see my stalker is primed and ready for action this morning, as always..

    The EU want to stabilise their Union, and save its political project. So, in the short-term, there won't be any, at least not officially. They do want to make an example of the UK, though. Make it look hard, ugly, expensive and unpleasant enough that no-one else ever thinks about it again.

    However, in the longer-term, it will be in the EU's long-term interests to have a practical relationship with the UK that amounts to associate membership in the areas we remain bound within. I expect this to take effect by means of supplemental agreements over a 10-20 year time horizon.

    We remain about 1/5th of the entire continent of Europe in terms of importance, and that will tell either inside or out, because the alternative is ongoing instability. You think that will irrevocably lead to rejoining; I think it would lead to growing strategic detachment. So I think the pragmatic middle-ground of associate membership would eventually win.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    Mr. Royale, will we? The political class is pretty pro-EU. The media likewise. The Civil Service seems to practically have it as a job requirement.

    ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    Scott_P said:
    Aside from the fact that's Dan Hodges, that's a good summation.

    Boris has totally destroyed his credibility. Repeatedly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    Scott_P said:
    Gove is the reason a "half-baked Brexit" is being delivered by May. If he hadn't knifed Boris, will be the prevailing view of the members.....

    Lay Gove. Not a cat in hells chance.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited July 2018

    Are the "100 entrepreneurs and business leaders" equivalent to the 364 economists who got it so totally wrong ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44755049

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3623669/How-364-economists-got-it-totally-wrong.html

    You can see Boris's mind working....

    If I resign I might be marginalised and disappear without trace...but if I do nothing May might get her plan through and be hailed a saviour and survive till 2022..... What if I agree but then leak that I didn't really agree and use colourful language in case no one notices.....

    Boris is Iago. The perfect Tory leader for our time.

    “Virtue? A fig! 'Tis in ourselves that we are thus or thus.”
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    I think Mogg may well be back leading the next ConHome next Tory leader poll after that result
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Royale, the 'will we' question referred to your statement/assertion we'd drift away from the EU over time. That's far from certain. The electorate and the political class are not as one over this.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,282
    kle4 said:

    Mr. kle4, possibly. But it may turn out like the Selmayr[sp] gambit Juncker used to get his goblin into place in the EU (SG of the Commission).

    It was irregular, I gather, but Juncker gathered those who had to agree on Selmayr's appointment as deputy secretary-general. They agreed, then minutes later learnt the current SG was going to resign, meaning Selmayr would become the secretary-general.

    In short, don't vote for something if you don't want the consequences, or potential consequences to occur.

    "Just back this, they'll never agree."

    What if the EU does?

    Which is why I'm not sure I believe it. I think it more likely that the more ardent Brexiteers were put on the spot by May 'Well what's your plan then, genius?' and they had nothing, and were not prepared to bring her down right now. For the same reason if the EU rejects, but leaves some wiggle room to make it work if the UK makes yet more concessions, I imagine they will, they will just claim it is not that much of a concession.
    Indeed. Arguably the most significant aspect is that May has finally got Brexiteers to face up to the fact that they can't have their cake and eat it and that nonsensical slogans can't be substituted for the immense detail that governs international trading relationships. They didn't have a feasible plan the EU would've entertained for a second and so must either accept reality and the 'betrayal' of their fantasies, or take the huge risk of going down the "f**k business" no deal Brexit path, bring May down and likely deliver a Corbyn government and/or an economic catastrophe. Sensibly, they backed down.

    As for May's, it is likely to be rejected in its current form, but welcomed as it at least displays some knowledge of the big sticking points and looks more like a tweaking of a plausible EFTA/EEA/CU relationship than a fantastical list of demands that the EU would never accept as it would undermine its integrity.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881



    It's an extremely good deal for the EU. The only question is where the "balance of rights and obligations" camp wins out (basically the EU27) or the "indivisible four freedoms" camp wins out, basically the EU apparatchiks and the Commission.

    (Snip) y.

    If its the Commission against the EU27 then the EU27 will prevail.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MJW said:

    Arguably the most significant aspect is that May has finally got Brexiteers to face up to the fact that they can't have their cake and eat it and that nonsensical slogans can't be substituted for the immense detail that governs international trading relationships. They didn't have a feasible plan the EU would've entertained for a second and so must either accept reality and the 'betrayal' of their fantasies, or take the huge risk of going down the "f**k business" no deal Brexit path, bring May down and likely deliver a Corbyn government and/or an economic catastrophe. Sensibly, they backed down.

    No plan is better than a bad plan !

    Oh, wait...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    Are the "100 entrepreneurs and business leaders" equivalent to the 364 economists who got it so totally wrong ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44755049

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3623669/How-364-economists-got-it-totally-wrong.html

    The 364 economists didn't get it wrong.

    http://www.res.org.uk/view/article4Oct12Feature.html
    That's a really interesting piece, thanks for the link. I think that "quits" is a reasonably accurate assessment overall. Attempts to control the money supply as a means of controlling inflation in particular and the economy in general undoubtedly failed. On the other hand the author is somewhat parsimonious with the truth in stating that the recession was not as deep as forecast. In fact the economy (undoubtedly helped by north sea oil) grew strongly even if unemployment remained historically high.

    In short the demand management consequences that traditional Keynesians forecast did not arise or, possibly, were offset by the other policies which Thatcher introduced and which he acknowledges.

    We of course saw very similar consequences in the period of Osborne's Chancellorship. Of course his "austerity" was always massively less severe than critics claimed but the fact is that he did very substantially reduce the deficit (reducing demand in the economy) whilst maintaining continuous, if modest, growth and reducing unemployment. Danny Blanchflower was not the only economist who forecast sky high unemployment as a result of Osborne's policies and he was so wrong that an extended period of self reflection and analysis of his models was clearly called for.

    FWIW my view is that both examples show that the idea that you can control an economy using broad economic levers has definite limitations. The real job of governments is to ensure that the ceteris is not paribus. Governments need to focus on and deal with the weaknesses in the economy by practical measures that are not simply economic. In Thatcher's time that included over powerful unions and an excessively large public sector. In Osborne's it was a dangerous lack of credit and a serious lack of skills. He did well with the first but poorly with the second.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive
    Pity it is all such a ludicrous waste of time. The EU wont accept this plan.
    Ultimately the plan won't see the light of day. There's the basis of a cracking deal for the EU where we give them our services trade as just one of the (massive) prices to pay for pretending we have stopped FoM. Most likely we will end up with SM+CU however. We have managed to manoeuvre ourselves into a situation where ALL our options are REALLY bad. I think it's only just dawning on people just how bad those options are.
    It's dawning on people just how bad our negotiators are.

    But, when you staff the abattoir full of vegetarians, don't expect steak for dinner.
    Racism and xenophobia against vegetarians!!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited July 2018

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But fundamentally every Brexit compromise will be compared to Harry Kane holding the World Cup. Theresa May says this is the best deal she could get on Haddock Quotas but the Three Lions conquered the World. The images of Harry Kane holding excalibre will be captioned " Global Britain ". Many decent leftish footballer lover politicos are in love with their New England but the analysis seems very Remain campaign to me. Has English exceptionalism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England win the World Cup no doubt it would boost English nationalists and those who say 'sod Brussels and Edinburgh and Belfast and Dublin, we want to be an independent country again as we have proved we can conquer the World.' It would also undoubtedly boost confidence in hard Brexit amongst Leavers and those who want an English Parliament. Don't forget either the Tories won a majority of seats in England (and Wales) at the 2010, 2015 and 2017 general elections and most votes in England at the 2005 general election. An independent England (or to a lesser extent England and Wales) would make it much harder for Labour to form a government. Not impossible, Labour won a majority of seats in England in 1945, 1950, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 but harder and of course the Tories would have won in 1964 and February 1974 had the election been in England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    I've just watched Gove on Marr. He's definitely the best option for anyone who wants the Brexit to succeed and for the Tories to do well. I hope they stick with May.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    I think people opposing this deal would rather hold onto their purity than get out of the EU. Disappointing.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,877
    HYUFD said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England win the World Cup no doubt it would boost English nationalists and those who say 'sod Brussels and Edinburgh and Belfast and Dublin, we want to be an independent country again as we have proved we can conquer the World.' It would also undoubtedly boost confidence in hard Brexit amongst Leavers and those who want an English Parliament. Don't forget either the Tories won a majority of seats in England (and Wales) at the 2010, 2015 and 2017 general elections and most votes in England at the 2005 general election. An independent England (or to a lesser extent England and Wales) would make it much harder for Labour to form a government. Not impossible, Labour won a majority of seats in England in 1945, 1950, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 but harder and of course the Tories would have won in 1964 and February 1974 had the election been in England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English nationalists want to reduce immigration to tens of thousands a year. At least half the England team is of second or third generation immigrant stock - with parents and grandparents who are exactly like those that English nationalists want to keep out of the country. In short, it's complex. This team is uniting the country precisely because different people see different things in it. On that basis, I doubt it will change many minds.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    MaxPB said:

    I think people opposing this deal would rather hold onto their purity than get out of the EU. Disappointing.

    Agreed. They also, somewhat oddly, seem to underestimate the power of leaving. Once we have left any further negotiations with the EU will be on a much more level playing field than article 50 allows.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    HYUFD said:

    The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But fundamentally every Brexit compromise will be compared to Harry Kane holding the World Cup. Theresa May says this is the best deal she could get on Haddock Quotas but the Three Lions conquered the World. The images of Harry Kane holding excalibre will be captioned " Global Britain ". Many decent leftish footballer lover politicos are in love with their New England but the analysis seems very Remain campaign to me. Has English exceptionalism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England win the World Cup no doubt it would boost English nationalists and those who say 'sod Brussels and Edinburgh and Belfast and Dublin, we want to be an independent country again as we have proved we can conquer the World.' It would also undoubtedly boost confidence in hard Brexit amongst Leavers and those who want an English Parliament. Don't forget either the Tories won a majority of seats in England (and Wales) at the 2010, 2015 and 2017 general elections and most votes in England at the 2005 general election. An independent England (or to a lesser extent England and Wales) would make it much harder for Labour to form a government. Not impossible, Labour won a majority of seats in England in 1945, 1950, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 but harder and of course the Tories would have won in 1964 and February 1974 had the election been in England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK
    "Don't forget either the Tories won a majority of seats in England (and Wales) at the 2010, 2015 and 2017 general elections "

    I wasn't aware the Tories won a majority of seats in Wales ! They certainly did not.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    surby said:

    HYUFD said:

    The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But fundamentally every Brexit compromise will be compared to Harry Kane holding the World Cup. Theresa May says this is the best deal she could get on Haddock Quotas but the Three Lions conquered the World. The images of Harry Kane holding excalibre will be captioned " Global Britain ". Many decent leftish footballer lover politicos are in love with their New England but the analysis seems very Remain campaign to me. Has English exceptionalism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England win the World Cup no doubt it would boost English nationalists and those who say 'sod Brussels and Edinburgh and Belfast and Dublin, we want to be an independent country again as we have proved we can conquer the World.' It would also undoubtedly boost confidence in hard Brexit amongst Leavers and those who want an English Parliament. Don't forget either the Tories won a majority of seats in England (and Wales) at the 2010, 2015 and 2017 general elections and most votes in England at the 2005 general election. An independent England (or to a lesser extent England and Wales) would make it much harder for Labour to form a government. Not impossible, Labour won a majority of seats in England in 1945, 1950, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 but harder and of course the Tories would have won in 1964 and February 1974 had the election been in England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK
    "Don't forget either the Tories won a majority of seats in England (and Wales) at the 2010, 2015 and 2017 general elections "

    I wasn't aware the Tories won a majority of seats in Wales ! They certainly did not.
    England AND Wales :)
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Boris Johnson, David Davis, Michael Gove, Esther McVey, Penny Mordaunt, Andrea Leadsom and Liam Fox are sell-outs and turd polishers.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    HYUFD said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But fundamentally every Brexit compromise will be compared to Harry Kane holding the World Cup. Theresa May says this is the best deal she could get on Haddock Quotas but the Three Lions conquered the World. The images of Harry Kane holding excalibre will be captioned " Global Britain ". Many decent leftish footballer lover politicos are in love with their New England but the analysis seems very Remain campaign to me. Has English exceptionalism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England win the World Cup no doubt it would boost English nationalists and those who say 'sod Brussels and Edinburgh and Belfast and Dublin, we want to be an independent country again as we have proved we can conquer the World.' It would also undoubtedly boost confidence in hard Brexit amongst Leavers and those who want an English Parliament. Don't forget either the Tories won a majority of seats in England (and Wales) at the 2010, 2015 and 2017 general elections and most votes in England at the 2005 general election. An independent England (or to a lesser extent England and Wales) would make it much harder for Labour to form a government. Not impossible, Labour won a majority of seats in England in 1945, 1950, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 but harder and of course the Tories would have won in 1964 and February 1974 had the election been in England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK
    No, England voted about 53% Leave, 47% Remain, as did Wales!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    Same as the YouGov poll on 23rd June 2016.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think people opposing this deal would rather hold onto their purity than get out of the EU. Disappointing.

    Agreed. They also, somewhat oddly, seem to underestimate the power of leaving. Once we have left any further negotiations with the EU will be on a much more level playing field than article 50 allows.
    Yes, as I said before Brexit is a decade long journey. This deal is just stage one of that journey. Over time we will continue to diverge from the EU and our nation will become less reliant on them.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1015890794148978688?s=20

    To paraphrase, “When you come for the queen, you best not miss”.

    If they do try, they’ll miss, and we’ll see a crushing of sabateurs the like of which we haven’t seen in a long while.

    They haven't got the numbers and they know it!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,877

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive

    A deal that ignores Services is very bad for business. That’s why there is more ground for the government to give.

    I think arrangements on those are being parked for the full FTA to be negotiated in the transition period.

    However, HMG (including many Remainers) have already declared the importance of the UK having full freedom in digital, tech, and BoE independence. I think the UK can grow services markets pretty quickly worldwide; it doesn't have the same political sensitivities that NI or car/aeroplane manufacturing do. Financial services (retail) may take a small hit, but not an excessive one, and otherwise we'll be ok - I expect free-ish movement for professionals.

    My firm is now targeting Canada, the US, Asia, Australia, and Sweden/Germany as well as the UK. They are setting up a small office in Germany, but they are also doing so in the US.

    The issue with services is that they are so intertwined with goods. If you sell machinery, for example, you have to offer after-care, too. Under a goods but no services deal, a UK business would be unable to do this unless it opened an office inside the EU27 and staffed it with non-UK citizens. I think the government is trying to square this in the paragraph about freedom to study and work in the EU - but that will involve a deal on FoM. The key point is to start talking. Once that happens, we are three quarters of the way there.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited July 2018
    surby said:

    HYUFD said:

    The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But fundamentally every Brexit compromise will be compared to Harry Kane holding the World Cup. Theresa May says this is the best deal she could get on Haddock Quotas but the Three Lions conquered g alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England win the World Cup no doubt it would boost English nationalists and those who say 'sod Brussels and Edinburgh and Belfast and Dublin, we want to be an independent 0, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 but harder and of course the Tories would have won in 1964 and February 1974 had the election been in England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK
    "Don't forget either the Tories won a majority of seats in England (and Wales) at the 2010, 2015 and 2017 general elections "

    I wasn't aware the Tories won a majority of seats in Wales ! They certainly did not.
    I said England AND Wales, combine the two and the Tories did win a majority there. Wales will almost certainly stay united with England even if Scotland went independent and Ireland reunited. Wales has shared a monarch with England since the 13th century and been formally united with England since the 16th century and Wales voted Leave just like England. Scotland had its own monarch until the 17th century and only united with England in the 18th century and Ireland only formally joined the Union in the early 19th century with NI being created in 1921 after the Irish Free State was formed.

    Plaid has also never won most seats and votes let alone a majority of Welsh seats at either a Westminster or Welsh Assembly election unlike the SNP's wins at Westminster and Holyrood. Scotland and Northern Ireland also voted Remain
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think people opposing this deal would rather hold onto their purity than get out of the EU. Disappointing.

    Agreed. They also, somewhat oddly, seem to underestimate the power of leaving. Once we have left any further negotiations with the EU will be on a much more level playing field than article 50 allows.
    Yes, as I said before Brexit is a decade long journey. This deal is just stage one of that journey. Over time we will continue to diverge from the EU and our nation will become less reliant on them.
    And the more aggressive and abusive of the position that article 50 gives them the EU are in the current negotiations the more inevitable and lengthy that journey away from them will be.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Very tight. At even money you'd back both Remain and May in an election tomorrow, but Corbyn/leave couldn't be ruled out.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    HYUFD said:

    The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But fundamentally every Brexit compromise will be compared to Harry Kane holding the World Cup. Theresa May says this is the best deal she could get on Haddock Quotas but the Three Lions conquered g alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England win the World Cup no doubt it would boost English nationalists and those who say 'sod Brussels and Edinburgh and Belfast and Dublin, we want to be an independent 0, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 but harder and of course the Tories would have won in 1964 and February 1974 had the election been in England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK
    "Don't forget either the Tories won a majority of seats in England (and Wales) at the 2010, 2015 and 2017 general elections "

    I wasn't aware the Tories won a majority of seats in Wales ! They certainly did not.
    I said England AND Wales, combine the two and the Tories did win a majority. Wales will almost certainly stay united with England even if Scotland went independent and Ireland reunited. Wales has shared a monarch with England since the 13th century and been formally united with England since the 16th century and Wales voted Leave just like England. Scotland had its own monarch until the 17th century and only United with England in the 18th century and Ireland only formally joined the Union in the early 19th century with NI being created in 1921 after the Irish Free State was formed.

    Plaid has also never won most seats and votes at either a Westminster or Welsh Assembly election unlike the SNP's wins at Westminster and Holyrood. Scotland and Northern Ireland also voted Remain
    Unlike in Scotland, there were several constituencies of NI that voted Leave
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive
    Pity it is all such a ludicrous waste of time. The EU wont accept this plan.
    Ultimately the plan won't see the light of day. There's the basis of a cracking deal for the EU where we give them our services trade as just one of the (massive) prices to pay for pretending we have stopped FoM. Most likely we will end up with SM+CU however. We have managed to manoeuvre ourselves into a situation where ALL our options are REALLY bad. I think it's only just dawning on people just how bad those options are.
    It's dawning on people just how bad our negotiators are.

    But, when you staff the abattoir full of vegetarians, don't expect steak for dinner.
    Replace negotiators with establishment.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,877

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive
    Pity it is all such a ludicrous waste of time. The EU wont accept this plan.

    It’s a starting point. The key is to begin talking. Once that happens a deal will be done.

    The EU will not agree to a bad deal for itself because of a phoney sense of urgency created by Brexit.

    The EU is not going to get a bad deal for itself. The EU is going to set the parameters within which a deal is done. There will be negotiations about precise terms, but not on principles.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive
    Pity it is all such a ludicrous waste of time. The EU wont accept this plan.
    Ultimately the plan won't see the light of day. There's the basis of a cracking deal for the EU where we give them our services trade as just one of the (massive) prices to pay for pretending we have stopped FoM. Most likely we will end up with SM+CU however. We have managed to manoeuvre ourselves into a situation where ALL our options are REALLY bad. I think it's only just dawning on people just how bad those options are.
    It's dawning on people just how bad our negotiators are.

    But, when you staff the abattoir full of vegetarians, don't expect steak for dinner.
    Replace negotiators with establishment.
    There's a difference?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    HYUFD said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But fundamentally every Brexit compromise will be compared to Harry Kane holding the World Cup. Theresa May says this is the best deal she could get on Haddock Quotas but the Three Lions conquered the World. The images of Harry Kane holding excalibre will be captioned " Global Britain ". Many decent leftish footballer lover politicos are in love with their New England but the analysis seems very Remain campaign to me. Has English exceptionalism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England win the World Cup no doubt it would boost English nationalists and those who say 'sod Brussels and Edinburgh and Belfast and Dublin, we want to be an independent country again as we have proved we can conquer the World.' It would also undoubtedly boost confidence in hard Brexit amongst Leavers and those who want an English Parliament. Don't forget either the Tories won a majority of seats in England (and Wales) at the 2010, 2015 and 2017 general elections and most votes in England at the 2005 general election. An independent England (or to a lesser extent England and Wales) would make it much harder for Labour to form a government. Not impossible, Labour won a majority of seats in England in 1945, 1950, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 but harder and of course the Tories would have won in 1964 and February 1974 had the election been in England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK
    No, England voted about 53% Leave, 47% Remain, just like Wales!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive

    A deal that ignores Services is very bad for business. That’s why there is more ground for the government to give.

    The current EU set up doesn’t work for services. The failure to complete the single market has been a source of deep frustration
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    Pulpstar said:

    Very tight. At even money you'd back both Remain and May in an election tomorrow, but Corbyn/leave couldn't be ruled out.
    YouGov's Referendum Day poll 23rd June 2016 also gave us Remain 52%, Leave 48%.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter ture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England win the World Cup no doubt it would boost English nationalists and those who say 'sod Brussels and Edinburgh and Belfast and Dublin, we want to be an independent country again as we have proved we can conquer the World.' It would also undoubtedly boost confidence in hard Brexit amongst Leavers and those who want an English Parliament. Don't forget either the Tories won a majority of seats in England (and Wales) at the 2010, 2015 and 2017 general elections and most votes in England at the 2005 general election. An independent England (or to a lesser extent England and Wales) would make it much harder for Labour to form a government. Not impossible, Labour won a majority of seats in England in 1945, 1950, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 but harder and of course the Tories would have won in 1964 and February 1974 had the election been in England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English nationalists want to reduce immigration to tens of thousands a year. At least half the England team is of second or third generation immigrant stock - with parents and grandparents who are exactly like those that English nationalists want to keep out of the country. In short, it's complex. This team is uniting the country precisely because different people see different things in it. On that basis, I doubt it will change many minds.

    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is uncontrolled unskilled immigration they have a problem with
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,877
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English nationalists want to reduce immigration to tens of thousands a year. At least half the England team is of second or third generation immigrant stock - with parents and grandparents who are exactly like those that English nationalists want to keep out of the country. In short, it's complex. This team is uniting the country precisely because different people see different things in it. On that basis, I doubt it will change many minds.

    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    The final Survation poll before the EU referendum also had Remain narrowly ahead but Leave won
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive

    A deal that ignores Services is very bad for business. That’s why there is more ground for the government to give.

    I think arrangements on those are being parked for the full FTA to be negotiated in the transition period.

    However, HMG (including many Remainers) have already declared the importance of the UK having full freedom in digital, tech, and BoE independence. I think the UK can grow services markets pretty quickly worldwide; it doesn't have the same political sensitivities that NI or car/aeroplane manufacturing do. Financial services (retail) may take a small hit, but not an excessive one, and otherwise we'll be ok - I expect free-ish movement for professionals.

    My firm is now targeting Canada, the US, Asia, Australia, and Sweden/Germany as well as the UK. They are setting up a small office in Germany, but they are also doing so in the US.

    The issue with services is that they are so intertwined with goods. If you sell machinery, for example, you have to offer after-care, too. Under a goods but no services deal, a UK business would be unable to do this unless it opened an office inside the EU27 and staffed it with non-UK citizens. I think the government is trying to square this in the paragraph about freedom to study and work in the EU - but that will involve a deal on FoM. The key point is to start talking. Once that happens, we are three quarters of the way there.

    I think you're over egging the pudding, companies sell goods/maintenance contracts all over the world. I don't see how the EU could conceivably block sub contracts in the future without cutting themselves off from the world at large.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    I've just watched Gove on Marr. He's definitely the best option for anyone who wants the Brexit to succeed and for the Tories to do well. I hope they stick with May.

    Surprisingly, the person who changes his tune at every juncture, is the Brexiter hero. He is a Hypocrite !
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I see the Survation poll is getting a lot of analysis. I’m still waiting for the approved Leaver explanation of the 19% gap between Brexit pessimists and Brexit optimists from the other day.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,877
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive

    A deal that ignores Services is very bad for business. That’s why there is more ground for the government to give.

    I think arrangements on those are being parked for the full FTA to be negotiated in the transition period.

    However, HMG (including many Remainers) have already declared the importance of the UK having full freedom in digital, tech, and BoE independence. I think the UK can grow services markets pretty quickly worldwide; it doesn't have the same political sensitivities that NI or car/aeroplane manufacturing do. Financial services (retail) may take a small hit, but not an excessive one, and otherwise we'll be ok - I expect free-ish movement for professionals.

    My firm is now targeting Canada, the US, Asia, Australia, and Sweden/Germany as well as the UK. They are setting up a small office in Germany, but they are also doing so in the US.

    The issue with services is that they are so intertwined with goods. If you sell machinery, for example, you have to offer after-care, too. Under a goods but no services deal, a UK business would be unable to do this unless it opened an office inside the EU27 and staffed it with non-UK citizens. I think the government is trying to square this in the paragraph about freedom to study and work in the EU - but that will involve a deal on FoM. The key point is to start talking. Once that happens, we are three quarters of the way there.

    I think you're over egging the pudding, companies sell goods/maintenance contracts all over the world. I don't see how the EU could conceivably block sub contracts in the future without cutting themselves off from the world at large.

    The EU will not block them. It's whether the sale of the goods is feasible in the first place without being able to offer the after-care. Who would buy on that basis?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English nationalists want to reduce immigration to tens of thousands a year. At least half the England team is of second or third generation immigrant stock - with parents and grandparents who are exactly like those that English nationalists want to keep out of the country. In short, it's complex. This team is uniting the country precisely because different people see different things in it. On that basis, I doubt it will change many minds.

    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    I watched the match yesterday in a room full of Scots who were all cheering on England but one of them commented how incredibly English Harry Maguire looks. The consensus was that if you dug up a peat moor in Yorkshire and found an example of a post neanderthal man he would probably look very like Maguire.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English nationalists want to reduce immigration to tens of thousands a year. At least half the England team is of second or third generation immigrant stock - with parents and grandparents who are exactly like those that English nationalists want to keep out of the country. In short, it's complex. This team is uniting the country precisely because different people see different things in it. On that basis, I doubt it will change many minds.

    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    How do you know they were unskilled? Many if not most of the Windrush generation were reasonably skilled. Harry Kane and Pickford and Maguire are of course as English as they come. However all the polling shows it is unskilled immigration voters want tightened up they are less concerned about skilled immigration.

    It was of course your man Blair's failure to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 unlike most EU nations which exacerbated the problem and played a pivotal role in the Leave win
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive

    A deal that ignores Services is very bad for business. That’s why there is more ground for the government to give.

    I think arrangements on those are being parked for the full FTA to be negotiated in the transition period.

    However, HMG (including many Remainers) have already declared the importance of the UK having full freedom in digital, tech, and BoE independence. I think the UK can grow services markets pretty quickly worldwide; it doesn't have the same political sensitivities that NI or car/aeroplane manufacturing do. Financial services (retail) may take a small hit, but not an excessive one, and otherwise we'll be ok - I expect free-ish movement for professionals.

    My firm is now targeting Canada, the US, Asia, Australia, and Sweden/Germany as well as the UK. They are setting up a small office in Germany, but they are also doing so in the US.

    The issue with services is that they are so intertwined with goods. If you sell machinery, for example, you have to offer after-care, too. Under a goods but no services deal, a UK business would be unable to do this unless it opened an office inside the EU27 and staffed it with non-UK citizens. I think the government is trying to square this in the paragraph about freedom to study and work in the EU - but that will involve a deal on FoM. The key point is to start talking. Once that happens, we are three quarters of the way there.

    Why so?

    I understand where there is regulation involved eg finance but what NTBs can be put in place for, say, engineering aftercare? Presumably around mutual recognition of qualifications - but surely that’s up to the customer to decide where qualifications are sufficient even if not recognised?

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive

    A deal that ignores Services is very bad for business. That’s why there is more ground for the government to give.

    I think arrangements on those are being parked for the full FTA to be negotiated in the transition period.

    However, HMG (including many Remainers) have already declared the importance of the UK having full freedom in digital, tech, and BoE independence. I think the UK can grow services markets pretty quickly worldwide; it doesn't have the same political sensitivities that NI or car/aeroplane manufacturing do. Financial services (retail) may take a small hit, but not an excessive one, and otherwise we'll be ok - I expect free-ish movement for professionals.

    My firm is now targeting Canada, the US, Asia, Australia, and Sweden/Germany as well as the UK. They are setting up a small office in Germany, but they are also doing so in the US.

    The issue with services is that they are so intertwined with goods. If you sell machinery, for example, you have to offer after-care, too. Under a goods but no services deal, a UK business would be unable to do this unless it opened an office inside the EU27 and staffed it with non-UK citizens. I think the government is trying to square this in the paragraph about freedom to study and work in the EU - but that will involve a deal on FoM. The key point is to start talking. Once that happens, we are three quarters of the way there.

    I think you're over egging the pudding, companies sell goods/maintenance contracts all over the world. I don't see how the EU could conceivably block sub contracts in the future without cutting themselves off from the world at large.

    The EU will not block them. It's whether the sale of the goods is feasible in the first place without being able to offer the after-care. Who would buy on that basis?

    We'll given that the government are negotiating tariff, customs and quota free goods access I don't see the issue.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English nationalists want to reduce immigration to tens of thousands a year. At least half the England team is of second or third generation immigrant stock - with parents and grandparents who are exactly like those that English nationalists want to keep out of the country. In short, it's complex. This team is uniting the country precisely because different people see different things in it. On that basis, I doubt it will change many minds.

    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    I watched the match yesterday in a room full of Scots who were all cheering on England but one of them commented how incredibly English Harry Maguire looks. The consensus was that if you dug up a peat moor in Yorkshire and found an example of a post neanderthal man he would probably look very like Maguire.
    Pickford as well, lol. Both outstanding players. The England football team is a testament to hard work and working classes getting their chance in sport, unlike so many other sports in this country.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    MaxPB said:

    I think people opposing this deal would rather hold onto their purity than get out of the EU. Disappointing.

    Gove is playing the long game - don’t make best the enemy of good - just get us out, and we can take things from there.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive

    A deal that ignores Services is very bad for business. That’s why there is more ground for the government to give.

    I think arrangements on those are being parked for the full FTA to be negotiated in the transition period.

    However, HMG (including many Remainers) have already declared the importance of the UK having full freedom in digital, tech, and BoE independence. I think the UK can grow services markets pretty quickly worldwide; it doesn't have the same political sensitivities that NI or car/aeroplane manufacturing do. Financial services (retail) may take a small hit, but not an excessive one, and otherwise we'll be ok - I expect free-ish movement for professionals.

    My firm is now targeting Canada, the US, Asia, Australia, and Sweden/Germany as well as the UK. They are setting up a small office in Germany, but they are also doing so in the US.

    The issue with services is that they are so intertwined with goods. If you sell machinery, for example, you have to offer after-care, too. Under a goods but no services deal, a UK business would be unable to do this unless it opened an office inside the EU27 and staffed it with non-UK citizens. I think the government is trying to square this in the paragraph about freedom to study and work in the EU - but that will involve a deal on FoM. The key point is to start talking. Once that happens, we are three quarters of the way there.

    Why so?

    I understand where there is regulation involved eg finance but what NTBs can be put in place for, say, engineering aftercare? Presumably around mutual recognition of qualifications - but surely that’s up to the customer to decide where qualifications are sufficient even if not recognised?

    Indeed, and given that the companies sell these kinds of contracts to non-EU nations already I think @SouthamObserver is worrying over nothing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English nationalists want to reduce immigration to tens of thousands a year. At least half the England team is of second or third generation immigrant stock - with parents and grandparents who are exactly like those that English nationalists want to keep out of the country. In short, it's complex. This team is uniting the country precisely because different people see different things in it. On that basis, I doubt it will change many minds.

    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    I watched the match yesterday in a room full of Scots who were all cheering on England but one of them commented how incredibly English Harry Maguire looks. The consensus was that if you dug up a peat moor in Yorkshire and found an example of a post neanderthal man he would probably look very like Maguire.
    Pickford as well, lol. Both outstanding players. The England football team is a testament to hard work and working classes getting their chance in sport, unlike so many other sports in this country.
    Pickford was an absolute revelation to me yesterday. I had no idea that he was that good. The second save down low to his side reminded me of Banks-v-Pele. Just outstanding.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,877
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English many minds.

    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    How do you know they were unskilled? Many if not most of the Windrush generation were reasonably skilled. Harry Kane of course is as English as they come. However all the polling shows it is unskilled immigration voters want tightened up they are less concerned about skilled immigration.

    It was of course your man Blair's failure to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 unlike most EU nations which exacerbated the problem and played a pivotal role in the Leave win

    Harry Kane's granddad was Irish, which probably does make him as English as they come, of course! I am not sure you could call the Windrush generation skilled. They came to the UK to do manual jobs.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    surby said:

    https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1015890794148978688?s=20

    To paraphrase, “When you come for the queen, you best not miss”.

    If they do try, they’ll miss, and we’ll see a crushing of sabateurs the like of which we haven’t seen in a long while.

    They haven't got the numbers and they know it!
    It is often said, not least on here, that the Conservatives are the party of Brexit but if you look at the Cabinet or backbench MPs, that is quite misleading. There are as many europhiles as europhobes, and probably the vast bulk in the middle with no fixed views one way or the other who hope the government can make a reasonable fist of it.

    But Theresa May can be toppled. No-one likes her, she don't care, while we are on football analogies. The trouble is the ERG (or any other faction) does not have the votes to guarantee their candidate or even a candidate who is broadly eurosceptic will be the new prime minister. Always keep tight hold of nurse, as JRM's nanny will doubtless have impressed upon him, for fear of electing someone worse.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive

    A deal that ignores Services is very bad for business. That’s why there is more ground for the government to give.

    I think arrangements on those are being parked for the full FTA to be negotiated in the transition period.

    However, HMG (including many Remainers) have already declared the importance of the UK having full freedom in digital, tech, and BoE independence. I think the UK can grow services markets pretty quickly worldwide; it doesn't have the same political sensitivities that NI or car/aeroplane manufacturing do. Financial services (retail) may take a small hit, but not an excessive one, and otherwise we'll be ok - I expect free-ish movement for professionals.

    My firm is now targeting Canada, the US, Asia, Australia, and Sweden/Germany as well as the UK. They are setting up a small office in Germany, but they are also doing so in the US.

    The issue with services is that they are so intertwined with goods. If you sell machinery, for example, you have to offer after-care, too. Under a goods but no services deal, a UK business would be unable to do this unless it opened an office inside the EU27 and staffed it with non-UK citizens. I think the government is trying to square this in the paragraph about freedom to study and work in the EU - but that will involve a deal on FoM. The key point is to start talking. Once that happens, we are three quarters of the way there.

    Why so?

    I understand where there is regulation involved eg finance but what NTBs can be put in place for, say, engineering aftercare? Presumably around mutual recognition of qualifications - but surely that’s up to the customer to decide where qualifications are sufficient even if not recognised?

    Indeed, and given that the companies sell these kinds of contracts to non-EU nations already I think @SouthamObserver is worrying over nothing.
    Rolls Royce sell jet engines around the world- how do they manage?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    I watched the match yesterday in a room full of Scots who were all cheering on England but one of them commented how incredibly English Harry Maguire looks. The consensus was that if you dug up a peat moor in Yorkshire and found an example of a post neanderthal man he would probably look very like Maguire.

    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1015889836790697984
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,877
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English nationalists want to reduce immigration to tens of thousands a year. At least half the England team is of second or third generation immigrant stock - with parents and grandparents who are exactly like those that English nationalists want to keep out of the country. In short, it's complex. This team is uniting the country precisely because different people see different things in it. On that basis, I doubt it will change many minds.

    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    I watched the match yesterday in a room full of Scots who were all cheering on England but one of them commented how incredibly English Harry Maguire looks. The consensus was that if you dug up a peat moor in Yorkshire and found an example of a post neanderthal man he would probably look very like Maguire.

    Ha, ha - very good. But with a name like that there'll be some Irish somewhere.

    There's a lot to Maguire - he's actually very smart: got grade A and A* in his GCSEs.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,877
    edited July 2018

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive

    A deal that ignores Services is very bad for business. That’s why there is more ground for the government to give.

    I think arrangements on those are being parked for the full FTA to be negotiated in the transition period.

    However, HMG (including many Remainers) have already declared the importance of the UK having full freedom in digital, tech, and BoE independence. I think the UK can grow services markets pretty quickly worldwide; it doesn't have the same political sensitivities that NI or car/aeroplane manufacturing do. Financial services (retail) may take a small hit, but not an excessive one, and otherwise we'll be ok - I expect free-ish movement for professionals.

    My firm is now targeting Canada, the US, Asia, Australia, and Sweden/Germany as well as the UK. They are setting up a small office in Germany, but they are also doing so in the US.

    The issue with services is that they are so intertwined with goods. If you sell machinery, for example, you have to offer after-care, too. Under a goods but no services deal, a UK business would be unable to do this unless it opened an office inside the EU27 and staffed it with non-UK citizens. I think the government is trying to square this in the paragraph about freedom to study and work in the EU - but that will involve a deal on FoM. The key point is to start talking. Once that happens, we are three quarters of the way there.

    Why so?

    I understand where there is regulation involved eg finance but what NTBs can be put in place for, say, engineering aftercare? Presumably around mutual recognition of qualifications - but surely that’s up to the customer to decide where qualifications are sufficient even if not recognised?

    Indeed, and given that the companies sell these kinds of contracts to non-EU nations already I think @SouthamObserver is worrying over nothing.
    Rolls Royce sell jet engines around the world- how do they manage?

    This is worth a read:

    https://www.ft.com/content/f3f5506c-7f6d-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475

    If you cannot access it behind the paywall, the issue is mutual recognition of qualifications.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    I watched the match yesterday in a room full of Scots who were all cheering on England but one of them commented how incredibly English Harry Maguire looks. The consensus was that if you dug up a peat moor in Yorkshire and found an example of a post neanderthal man he would probably look very like Maguire.

    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1015889836790697984
    Excellent. Thanks. It has indeed been a blast.
This discussion has been closed.