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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The fly in the ointment? How Brexit may be delayed by no deal

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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English nationalists want to reduce immigration to tens of thousands a year. At least half the England team is of second or third generation immigrant stock - with parents and grandparents who are exactly like those that English nationalists want to keep out of the country. In short, it's complex. This team is uniting the country precisely because different people see different things in it. On that basis, I doubt it will change many minds.

    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    By that logic we should allow unlimited immigration from the whole world in the hope that in fifty years time some of their descendants might be talented at sports.

    And what about the 99.99% who aren't ?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English nationalists want to reduce immigration to tens of thousands a year. At least half the England team is of second or third generation immigrant stock - with parents and grandparents who are exactly like those that English nationalists want to keep out of the country. In short, it's complex. This team is uniting the country precisely because different people see different things in it. On that basis, I doubt it will change many minds.

    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    By that logic we should allow unlimited immigration from the whole world in the hope that in fifty years time some of their descendants might be talented at sports.

    And what about the 99.99% who aren't ?

    That was not my point.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005

    surby said:

    https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1015890794148978688?s=20

    To paraphrase, “When you come for the queen, you best not miss”.

    If they do try, they’ll miss, and we’ll see a crushing of sabateurs the like of which we haven’t seen in a long while.

    They haven't got the numbers and they know it!
    It is often said, not least on here, that the Conservatives are the party of Brexit but if you look at the Cabinet or backbench MPs, that is quite misleading. There are as many europhiles as europhobes, and probably the vast bulk in the middle with no fixed views one way or the other who hope the government can make a reasonable fist of it.

    But Theresa May can be toppled. No-one likes her, she don't care, while we are on football analogies. The trouble is the ERG (or any other faction) does not have the votes to guarantee their candidate or even a candidate who is broadly eurosceptic will be the new prime minister. Always keep tight hold of nurse, as JRM's nanny will doubtless have impressed upon him, for fear of electing someone worse.
    It is the membership who have the final vote and they will certainly now elect a candidate more Eurosceptic than May if and when she goes
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But fundamentally every Brexit compromise will be compared to Harry Kane holding the World Cup. Theresa May says this is the best deal she could get on Haddock Quotas but the Three Lions conquered the World. The images of Harry Kane holding excalibre will be captioned " Global Britain ". Many decent leftish footballer lover politicos are in love with their New England but the analysis seems very Remain campaign to me. Has English exceptionalism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    I think that is wrong. For all the hype most people are not obsessed with football - particularly once the moment has passed.England won the 1966 World Cup on 30th July that year, but I do not recall as a 12 year old at the time that all other issues were thereafter frozen out or cast aside. By the end of the Summer people had 'moved on' and the World Cup victory ceased to be a topic of day to day conversation - other than with the most fanatical of fans.Moreover, there was little - if any - electoral impact from the competition. Harold Wilson's Labour Government had been re-elected with a majority of 97 at the end of March - yet a year later it was starting to lose by elections and about to lose the GLC to the Tories by a landslide. That Government became seriously unpopular in 1967 and fell behind in the polls. I,therefore, confidently predict that even if England emerge triumphant on 15th July, it will not be on the radar screen of most people by the time of the party conferences.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,613

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English nationalists want to reduce immigration to tens of thousands a year. At least half the England team is of second or third generation immigrant stock - with parents and grandparents who are exactly like those that English nationalists want to keep out of the country. In short, it's complex. This team is uniting the country precisely because different people see different things in it. On that basis, I doubt it will change many minds.

    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    By that logic we should allow unlimited immigration from the whole world in the hope that in fifty years time some of their descendants might be talented at sports.

    And what about the 99.99% who aren't ?
    We could just take Qatar's approach and 'convince' world class athletes to take citizenship.
  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    MaxPB said:

    I think people opposing this deal would rather hold onto their purity than get out of the EU. Disappointing.

    Gove is playing the long game - don’t make best the enemy of good - just get us out, and we can take things from there.
    Typical Tories - here we go, the lies begin. They sell out the country to the EU and the justification is always the same - party before country, we will fix it later.

    The truth that everyone can see is that the deal done now will never, ever be 'improved' - can of these Tories actually provide any scenario in which any Government will revisit this agreement? Of course not. For no other reason that May will agree that the NI backstop will come into force if we ever exit the trade agreement.

    We are leaving the EU anyway, nothing can stop that. So this idea that somehow Brexit is at risk if May doesn't sell out is an utter lie. The truth is that Gove is thinking of his own career, just like every member of the cabinet.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,296
    justin124 said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But fundamentally every Brexit compromise will be compared to Harry Kane holding the World Cup. Theresa May says this is the best deal she could get on Haddock Quotas but the Three Lions conquered the World. The images of Harry Kane holding excalibre will be captioned " Global Britain ". Many decent leftish footballer lover politicos are in love with their New England but the analysis seems very Remain campaign to me. Has English exceptionalism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    I think that is wrong. For all the hype most people are not obsessed with football - particularly once the moment has passed.England won the 1966 World Cup on 30th July that year, but I do not recall as a 12 year old at the time that all other issues were thereafter frozen out or cast aside. By the end of the Summer people had 'moved on' and the World Cup victory ceased to be a topic of day to day conversation - other than with the most fanatical of fans.Moreover, there was little - if any - electoral impact from the competition. Harold Wilson's Labour Government had been re-elected with a majority of 97 at the end of March - yet a year later it was starting to lose by elections and about to lose the GLC to the Tories by a landslide. That Government became seriously unpopular in 1967 and fell behind in the polls. I,therefore, confidently predict that even if England emerge triumphant on 15th July, it will not be on the radar screen of most people by the time of the party conferences.
    Was it after the English had lost their world title to the Scots in 1967 that the government became unpopular though?
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English nationalists want to reduce immigration to tens of thousands a year. At least half the England team is of second or third generation immigrant stock - with parents and grandparents who are exactly like those that English nationalists want to keep out of the country. In short, it's complex. This team is uniting the country precisely because different people see different things in it. On that basis, I doubt it will change many minds.

    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    By that logic we should allow unlimited immigration from the whole world in the hope that in fifty years time some of their descendants might be talented at sports.

    And what about the 99.99% who aren't ?

    That was not my point.

    Its the logical conclusion of your thought that restricting unskilled immigration in previous generation might have removed certain footballers from being available for England.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,613
    I suppose our friends in the Brussels bunker are already celebrating the EU's World Cup win.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,672
    justin124 said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But fundamentally every Brexit compromise will be compared to Harry Kane holding the World Cup. Theresa May says this is the best deal she could get on Haddock Quotas but the Three Lions conquered the World. The images of Harry Kane holding excalibre will be captioned " Global Britain ". Many decent leftish footballer lover politicos are in love with their New England but the analysis seems very Remain campaign to me. Has English exceptionalism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    I think that is wrong. For all the hype most people are not obsessed with football - particularly once the moment has passed.England won the 1966 World Cup on 30th July that year, but I do not recall as a 12 year old at the time that all other issues were thereafter frozen out or cast aside. By the end of the Summer people had 'moved on' and the World Cup victory ceased to be a topic of day to day conversation - other than with the most fanatical of fans.Moreover, there was little - if any - electoral impact from the competition. Harold Wilson's Labour Government had been re-elected with a majority of 97 at the end of March - yet a year later it was starting to lose by elections and about to lose the GLC to the Tories by a landslide. That Government became seriously unpopular in 1967 and fell behind in the polls. I,therefore, confidently predict that even if England emerge triumphant on 15th July, it will not be on the radar screen of most people by the time of the party conferences.
    Yes. It will be a nice boost to the summer - like this long hot spell - but it too shall pass as the autumn rains start....
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    edited July 2018
    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive

    A deal that ignores Services is very bad for business. That’s why there is more ground for the government to give.

    I think arrangements on those are being parked for the full FTA to be negotiated in the transition period.

    However, HMG (including many Remainers) have already declared the importance of the UK having full freedom in digital, tech, and BoE independence. I think the UK can grow services markets pretty quickly worldwide; it doesn't have the same political sensitivities that NI or car/aeroplane manufacturing do. Financial services (retail) may take a small hit, but not an excessive one, and otherwise we'll be ok - I expect free-ish movement for professionals.

    My firm is now targeting Canada, the US, Asia, Australia, and Sweden/Germany as well as the UK. They are setting up a small office in Germany, but they are also doing so in the US.

    The issue with services is that they are so intertwined with goods. If you sell machinery, for example, you have to offer after-care, too. Under a goods but no services deal, a UK business would be unable to do this unless it opened an office inside the EU27 and staffed it with non-UK citizens. I think the government is trying to square this in the paragraph about freedom to study and work in the EU - but that will involve a deal on FoM. The key point is to start talking. Once that happens, we are three quarters of the way there.

    Why so?

    I understand where there is regulation involved eg finance but what NTBs can be put in place for, say, engineering aftercare? Presumably around mutual recognition of qualifications - but surely that’s up to the customer to decide where qualifications are sufficient even if not recognised?

    Indeed, and given that the companies sell these kinds of contracts to non-EU nations already I think @SouthamObserver is worrying over nothing.

    Of course - and those contracts are serviced by people qualified to do the job in the relevant countries. But if there is no Brexit deal around services, current UK qualifications that allow services to be supplied from the UK inside the EU will no longer be recognised.

  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I suppose our friends in the Brussels bunker are already celebrating the EU's World Cup win.

    https://twitter.com/martinselmayr/status/1015700068433825794?s=21
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082
    justin124 said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But fundamentally every Brexit compromise will be compared to Harry Kane holding the World Cup. Theresa May says this is the best deal she could get on Haddock Quotas but the Three Lions conquered the World. The images of Harry Kane holding excalibre will be captioned " Global Britain ". Many decent leftish footballer lover politicos are in love with their New England but the analysis seems very Remain campaign to me. Has English exceptionalism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    I think that is wrong. For all the hype most people are not obsessed with football - particularly once the moment has passed.England won the 1966 World Cup on 30th July that year, but I do not recall as a 12 year old at the time that all other issues were thereafter frozen out or cast aside. By the end of the Summer people had 'moved on' and the World Cup victory ceased to be a topic of day to day conversation - other than with the most fanatical of fans.Moreover, there was little - if any - electoral impact from the competition. Harold Wilson's Labour Government had been re-elected with a majority of 97 at the end of March - yet a year later it was starting to lose by elections and about to lose the GLC to the Tories by a landslide. That Government became seriously unpopular in 1967 and fell behind in the polls. I,therefore, confidently predict that even if England emerge triumphant on 15th July, it will not be on the radar screen of most people by the time of the party conferences.
    For many football fans it will be superseded by the start of the new season in August as the focus switches back to the club game.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But the M25 ?

    And what would 45 years of hurt.

    If England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English many minds.

    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    How do you know they were unskilled? Many if not most of the Windrush generation were reasonably skilled. Harry Kane of course is as English as they come. However all the polling shows it is unskilled immigration voters want tightened up they are less concerned about skilled immigration.

    It was of course your man Blair's failure to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 unlike most EU nations which exacerbated the problem and played a pivotal role in the Leave win

    Harry Kane's granddad was Irish, which probably does make him as English as they come, of course! I am not sure you could call the Windrush generation skilled. They came to the UK to do manual jobs.

    Having one grandad Irish (Ireland of course being part of the Union until the early 20th century) does not in anyway stop you being majority English. What an absurd point, many of my ancestors were French Huguenots, Welsh, Irish landed gentry etc that does not stop me being majority English. Of course many manual jobs are skilled.

    Almost as absurd as Another Richard points out as your equally absurd point that we need open borders migration to the whole world in the hope a tiny fraction of their descendants will be highly skilled footballers, yet again showing your complete divorce from the current public mood (and indeed polling in Scotland and Wales shows they want tighter controls on unskilled immigration as much as the English do)
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,672

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive

    A deal that ignores Services is very bad for business. That’s why there is more ground for the government to give.

    I think arrangements on those are being parked for the full FTA to be negotiated in the transition period.

    However, HMG (including many Remainers) have already declared the importance of the UK having full freedom in digital, tech, and BoE independence. I think the UK can grow services markets pretty quickly worldwide; it doesn't have the same political sensitivities that NI or car/aeroplane manufacturing do. Financial services (retail) may take a small hit, but not an excessive one, and otherwise we'll be ok - I expect free-ish movement for professionals.

    My firm is now targeting Canada, the US, Asia, Australia, and Sweden/Germany as well as the UK. They are setting up a small office in Germany, but they are also doing so in the US.

    The issue with services is that they are so intertwined with goods. If you sell machinery, for example, you have to offer after-care, too. Under a goods but no services deal, a UK business would be unable to do this unless it opened an office inside the EU27 and staffed it with non-UK citizens. I think the government is trying to square this in the paragraph about freedom to study and work in the EU - but that will involve a deal on FoM. The key point is to start talking. Once that happens, we are three quarters of the way there.

    Why so?

    I understand where there is regulation involved eg finance but what NTBs can be put in place for, say, engineering aftercare? Presumably around mutual recognition of qualifications - but surely that’s up to the customer to decide where qualifications are sufficient even if not recognised?

    Indeed, and given that the companies sell these kinds of contracts to non-EU nations already I think @SouthamObserver is worrying over nothing.

    Of course - and those contracts are serviced by people qualified to do the job in the relevant countries. But if there is no Brexit deal around services, current UK qualifications that allow services to be supplied from the UK in side the EU will no longer be recognised.

    And vice versa?
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    B
    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    I think that is wrong. For all the hype most people are not obsessed with football - particularly once the moment has passed.England won the 1966 World Cup on 30th July that year, but I do not recall as a 12 year old at the time that all other issues were thereafter frozen out or cast aside. By the end of the Summer people had 'moved on' and the World Cup victory ceased to be a topic of day to day conversation - other than with the most fanatical of fans.Moreover, there was little - if any - electoral impact from the competition. Harold Wilson's Labour Government had been re-elected with a majority of 97 at the end of March - yet a year later it was starting to lose by elections and about to lose the GLC to the Tories by a landslide. That Government became seriously unpopular in 1967 and fell behind in the polls. I,therefore, confidently predict that even if England emerge triumphant on 15th July, it will not be on the radar screen of most people by the time of the party conferences.
    Was it after the English had lost their world title to the Scots in 1967 that the government became unpopular though?
    Serious query! Which world title?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But the M25 ?

    And coded.

    An and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    If England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English nationalists want to reduce immigration to tens of thousands a year. At least half the England team is of second or third generation immigrant stock - with parents and grandparents who are exactly like those that English nationalists want to keep out of the country. In short, it's complex. This team is uniting the country precisely because different people see different things in it. On that basis, I doubt it will change many minds.

    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    By that logic we should allow unlimited immigration from the whole world in the hope that in fifty years time some of their descendants might be talented at sports.

    And what about the 99.99% who aren't ?

    That was not my point.

    Its the logical conclusion of your thought that restricting unskilled immigration in previous generation might have removed certain footballers from being available for England.

    My point was that to claim an England World Cup triumph for English nationalism would be absurd precisely because English nationalists tend to want to end unskilled immigration into the UK. Of course, they would argue that England not winning the World Cup would be an acceptable price to pay for this. And that is fair enough. But they cannot then simultaneously argue that winning the World Cup shows that England can stand alone, close the doors and still rule the waves.

  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    “You have to get behind someone before you can stab them in the back.”

    Remember Boris. One rule of politics, do not trust Gove.

    Unreal. Gove is admitting that May will offer FOM (by another name) but she puts out a statement saying that she guaranteed FOM will be ending.

    The Tories have tried this trick (eg lying through their teeth) so many times on Europe that it is almost impossible to understand how they have not realised that nobody believes them. Not even their own members apparently. Same strategy as Cameron - sell out then lie and hope that you can spin a victory. And it worked so well last time.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082

    I suppose our friends in the Brussels bunker are already celebrating the EU's World Cup win.

    https://twitter.com/martinselmayr/status/1015700068433825794?s=21
    What's the relevance of six in that tweet ?

    2018 will only be the fourth consecutive European WC win.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But fundamentally every Brexit compromise will be compared to Harry Kane holding the World Cup. Theresa May says this is the best deal she could get on Haddock Quotas but the Three Lions conquered the World. The images of Harry Kane holding excalibre will be captioned " Global Britain ". Many decent leftish footballer lover politicos are in love with their New England but the analysis seems very Remain campaign to me. Has English exceptionalism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?


    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    I think that is wrong. For all the hype most people are not obsessed with football - particularly once the moment has passed.England won the 1966 World Cup on 30th July that year, but I do not recall as a 12 year old at the time that all other issues were thereafter frozen out or cast aside. By the end of the Summer people had 'moved on' and the World Cup victory ceased to be a topic of day to day conversation - other than with the most fanatical of fans.Moreover, there was little - if any - electoral impact from the competition. Harold Wilson's Labour Government had been re-elected with a majority of 97 at the end of March - yet a year later it was starting to lose by elections and about to lose the GLC to the Tories by a landslide. That Government became seriously unpopular in 1967 and fell behind in the polls. I,therefore, confidently predict that even if England emerge triumphant on 15th July, it will not be on the radar screen of most people by the time of the party conferences.
    For many football fans it will be superseded by the start of the new season in August as the focus switches back to the club game.
    I am not into football at all but I feel sure you are correct.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,296
    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    B
    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    I think that is wrong. For all the hype most people are not obsessed with football - particularly once the moment has passed.England won the 1966 World Cup on 30th July that year, but I do not recall as a 12 year old at the time that all other issues were thereafter frozen out or cast aside. By the end of the Summer people had 'moved on' and the World Cup victory ceased to be a topic of day to day conversation - other than with the most fanatical of fans.Moreover, there was little - if any - electoral impact from the competition. Harold Wilson's Labour Government had been re-elected with a majority of 97 at the end of March - yet a year later it was starting to lose by elections and about to lose the GLC to the Tories by a landslide. That Government became seriously unpopular in 1967 and fell behind in the polls. I,therefore, confidently predict that even if England emerge triumphant on 15th July, it will not be on the radar screen of most people by the time of the party conferences.
    Was it after the English had lost their world title to the Scots in 1967 that the government became unpopular though?
    Serious query! Which world title?
    England had won a competition in their home country in 1966 to be crowned world football champions. The first team to beat the champions, and they did it at Wembley, was the Scots on 11th April 1967. By any sensible interpretation Scotland then became world champions instead.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive

    A deal that ignores Services is very bad for business. That’s why there is more ground for the government to give.

    I think arrangements on those are being parked for the full FTA to be negotiated in the transition period.

    However, HMG (including many Remainers) have already declared the importance of the UK having full freedom in digital, tech, and BoE independence. I think the UK can grow services markets pretty quickly worldwide; it doesn't have the same political sensitivities that NI or car/aeroplane manufacturing do. Financial services (retail) may take a small hit, but not an excessive one, and otherwise we'll be ok - I expect free-ish movement for professionals.

    My firm is now targeting Canada, the US, Asia, Australia, and Sweden/Germany as well as the UK. They are setting up a small office in Germany, but they are also doing so in the US.

    The issue with services is that they are so intertwined with goods. If you sell machinery, for example, you have to offer after-care, too. Under a goods but no services deal, a UK business would be unable to do this unless it opened an office inside the EU27 and staffed it with non-UK citizens. I think the government is trying to square this in the paragraph about freedom to study and work in the EU - but that will involve a deal on FoM. The key point is to start talking. Once that happens, we are three quarters of the way there.

    Why so?

    I if not recognised?

    Indeed, and given that the companies sell these kinds of contracts to non-EU nations already I think @SouthamObserver is worrying over nothing.

    Of course - and those contracts are serviced by people qualified to do the job in the relevant countries. But if there is no Brexit deal around services, current UK qualifications that allow services to be supplied from the UK in side the EU will no longer be recognised.

    And vice versa?

    Presumably, but we have a huge services export surplus so it is a very big deal for us. That is why there will be an agreement.
  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    MJW said:

    kle4 said:


    Which is why I'm not sure I believe it. I think it more likely that the more ardent Brexiteers were put on the spot by May 'Well what's your plan then, genius?' and they had nothing, and were not prepared to bring her down right now. For the same reason if the EU rejects, but leaves some wiggle room to make it work if the UK makes yet more concessions, I imagine they will, they will just claim it is not that much of a concession.

    Indeed. Arguably the most significant aspect is that May has finally got Brexiteers to face up to the fact that they can't have their cake and eat it and that nonsensical slogans can't be substituted for the immense detail that governs international trading relationships. They didn't have a feasible plan the EU would've entertained for a second and so must either accept reality and the 'betrayal' of their fantasies, or take the huge risk of going down the "f**k business" no deal Brexit path, bring May down and likely deliver a Corbyn government and/or an economic catastrophe. Sensibly, they backed down.

    As for May's, it is likely to be rejected in its current form, but welcomed as it at least displays some knowledge of the big sticking points and looks more like a tweaking of a plausible EFTA/EEA/CU relationship than a fantastical list of demands that the EU would never accept as it would undermine its integrity.
    This lie needs to be nailed. The Brexiteers (eg the real ones) have always had a plan for Brexit. It was perfectly simple. It was called CETA+ and involved an FTA extended to cover all goods and no quotas with a protocol for services. It would not have breached any EU red line and even Barnier said that this would be the obvious outcome.

    The only thing that was a problem was the fake issue of NI. The solution was MaxFac. Everyone knew it would work, but the point was that Barnier wanted to blackmail the UK into accepting vassal state status and May and the Remainers were happy to be blackmailed.

    If the UK had offered CETA with MaxFac and said that if the EU did not climb down on the NI border there would be no deal, this would have been done months ago. There is no way the EU would have picked no deal just because of Ireland, who simply are not important.

    May and Robbins deliberately accepted the NI backstop because they knew it would force us towards a soft Brexit if they played along with the myth that it was actually an EU red line.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    But the M25 ?

    And what would 45 years of hurt.

    If England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English many minds.

    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    How about skilled immigration.

    It was of course your man Blair's failure to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 unlike most EU nations which exacerbated the problem and played a pivotal role in the Leave win

    Harry Kane's granddad was Irish, which probably does make him as English as they come, of course! I am not sure you could call the Windrush generation skilled. They came to the UK to do manual jobs.

    Having one grandad Irish (Ireland of course being part of the Union until the early 20th century) does not in anyway stop you being majority English. What an absurd point, many of my ancestors were French Huguenots, Welsh, Irish landed gentry etc that does not stop me being majority English. Of course many manual jobs are skilled.

    Almost as absurd as Another Richard points out as your equally absurd point that we need open borders migration to the whole world in the hope a tiny fraction of their descendants will be highly skilled footballers, yet again showing your complete divorce from the current public mood (and indeed polling in Scotland and Wales shows they want tighter controls on unskilled immigration as much as the English do)

    I am sorry that you have not understood any of my posts on this subject :-D
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    Was it after the English had lost their world title to the Scots in 1967 that the government became unpopular though?

    Serious query! Which world title?
    England had won a competition in their home country in 1966 to be crowned world football champions. The first team to beat the champions, and they did it at Wembley, was the Scots on 11th April 1967. By any sensible interpretation Scotland then became world champions instead.
    That is certainly how mastery of wands works in Harry Potter and, as we know, JK Rowling is never wrong.

    Would be interesting to have an alternative timeline of world champions worked out on that basis.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Of course - and those contracts are serviced by people qualified to do the job in the relevant countries. But if there is no Brexit deal around services, current UK qualifications that allow services to be supplied from the UK inside the EU will no longer be recognised.

    Without qualifications equivalence it will make it very tough for skilled EU workers to find jobs in the UK, I expect the EU will be quite amenable to existing qualifications equivalence being retained. It makes much more sense for them, given there are 3.5m EU workers in the UK with EU qualifications that would no longer be recognised in the UK without an equivalence deal.

    Additionally, I'm going to take my own example, I have a chartership which is internationally recognised. If the EU ceased to recognise it then it locks a whole load of financial workers out of the City. I don't think the EU would head down that path willingly, at least if they don't reject this current deal.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    If England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English nationalists want to reduce immigration to tens of thousands a year. At least half the England team is of second or third generation immigrant stock - with parents and grandparents who are exactly like those that English nationalists want to keep out of the country. In short, it's complex. This team is uniting the country precisely because different people see different things in it. On that basis, I doubt it will change many minds.

    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    By that logic we should allow unlimited immigration from the whole world in the hope that in fifty years time some of their descendants might be talented at sports.

    And what about the 99.99% who aren't ?

    That was not my point.

    Its the logical conclusion of your thought that restricting unskilled immigration in previous generation might have removed certain footballers from being available for England.

    My point was that to claim an England World Cup triumph for English nationalism would be absurd precisely because English nationalists tend to want to end unskilled immigration into the UK. Of course, they would argue that England not winning the World Cup would be an acceptable price to pay for this. And that is fair enough. But they cannot then simultaneously argue that winning the World Cup shows that England can stand alone, close the doors and still rule the waves.

    That's some convoluted reasoning - a footballer's grandad might not have been a skilled worker so that makes English nationalism intellectually incoherent.

    Here's some more convoluted reasoning - if so much of the country's wealth was not being consumed by the unskilled there would be more to invest in excellence including sports which would mean that the England football team would be more successful. Therefore advocates of unrestricted immigration have stopped England winning the World Cup.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,061

    This lie needs to be nailed. The Brexiteers (eg the real ones) have always had a plan for Brexit. It was perfectly simple. It was called CETA+ and involved an FTA extended to cover all goods and no quotas with a protocol for services. It would not have breached any EU red line and even Barnier said that this would be the obvious outcome.

    The only thing that was a problem was the fake issue of NI. The solution was MaxFac. Everyone knew it would work, but the point was that Barnier wanted to blackmail the UK into accepting vassal state status and May and the Remainers were happy to be blackmailed.

    If the UK had offered CETA with MaxFac and said that if the EU did not climb down on the NI border there would be no deal, this would have been done months ago. There is no way the EU would have picked no deal just because of Ireland, who simply are not important.

    May and Robbins deliberately accepted the NI backstop because they knew it would force us towards a soft Brexit if they played along with the myth that it was actually an EU red line.

    NI isn't a fake issue, but either way if you're a purist Brexiteer, isn't the obvious solution to do whatever it takes to get the unionists to accept special status? Given that the Good Friday Agreement already constrains UK sovereignty, there's nothing inherently outrageous about the idea so why are you so wedded to CETA+ across the whole UK as the only valid true Brexit?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    B
    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    I think that is wrong. For all the hype most people are not obsessed with football - particularly once the moment has passed.England won the 1966 World Cup on 30th July that year, but I do not recall as a 12 year old at the time that all other issues were thereafter frozen out or cast aside. By the end of the Summer people had 'moved on' and the World Cup victory ceased to be a topic of day to day conversation - other than with the most fanatical of fans.Moreover, there was little - if any - electoral impact from the competition. Harold Wilson's Labour Government had been re-elected with a majority of 97 at the end of March - yet a year later it was starting to lose by elections and about to lose the GLC to the Tories by a landslide. That Government became seriously unpopular in 1967 and fell behind in the polls. I,therefore, confidently predict that even if England emerge triumphant on 15th July, it will not be on the radar screen of most people by the time of the party conferences.
    Was it after the English had lost their world title to the Scots in 1967 that the government became unpopular though?
    Serious query! Which world title?
    England had won a competition in their home country in 1966 to be crowned world football champions. The first team to beat the champions, and they did it at Wembley, was the Scots on 11th April 1967. By any sensible interpretation Scotland then became world champions instead.
    Isn't that playground rules for conkers?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited July 2018

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    “You have to get behind someone before you can stab them in the back.”

    Remember Boris. One rule of politics, do not trust Gove.

    Unreal. Gove is admitting that May will offer FOM (by another name) but she puts out a statement saying that she guaranteed FOM will be ending.

    The Tories have tried this trick (eg lying through their teeth) so many times on Europe that it is almost impossible to understand how they have not realised that nobody believes them. Not even their own members apparently. Same strategy as Cameron - sell out then lie and hope that you can spin a victory. And it worked so well last time.
    The most interesting stat from the new Survation is that while no alternative contender in the Tories to succeed May would make most voters more likely to vote Tory, the Tory contender likeliest to make more voters vote Tory was Rees Mogg
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    If England alone.

    Don't forget either England voted about 55% Leave 45% Remain so a rather more decisive result than the 52% Leave 48% Remain across the UK

    English nationalists want to reduce immigration to tens of thousands a year. At least half the England team is of second or third generation immigrant stock - with parents and grandparents who are exactly like those that English nationalists want to keep out of the country. In short, it's complex. This team is uniting the country precisely because different people see different things in it. On that basis, I doubt it will change many minds.

    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    By that logic we should allow unlimited immigration from the whole world in the hope that in fifty years time some of their descendants might be talented at sports.

    And what about the 99.99% who aren't ?

    That was not my point.

    Its the logical conclusion of your thought that restricting unskilled immigration in previous generation might have removed certain footballers from being available for England.

    My waves.

    That's some convoluted reasoning - a footballer's grandad might not have been a skilled worker so that makes English nationalism intellectually incoherent.

    Here's some more convoluted reasoning - if so much of the country's wealth was not being consumed by the unskilled there would be more to invest in excellence including sports which would mean that the England football team would be more successful. Therefore advocates of unrestricted immigration have stopped England winning the World Cup.

    It is intellectually incoherent to say that a World Cup victory enabled by something you oppose demonstrates that what you support is achievable.

    On your point - the Premier League is the wealthier than any other football league in the world. More of the world's richest football clubs are based in England than anywhere else. If money is not being spent on grassroots football, that is because those running football in this country have decided not to do it, not because there is not enough money.

  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    MaxPB said:

    Of course - and those contracts are serviced by people qualified to do the job in the relevant countries. But if there is no Brexit deal around services, current UK qualifications that allow services to be supplied from the UK inside the EU will no longer be recognised.

    Without qualifications equivalence it will make it very tough for skilled EU workers to find jobs in the UK, I expect the EU will be quite amenable to existing qualifications equivalence being retained. It makes much more sense for them, given there are 3.5m EU workers in the UK with EU qualifications that would no longer be recognised in the UK without an equivalence deal.

    Additionally, I'm going to take my own example, I have a chartership which is internationally recognised. If the EU ceased to recognise it then it locks a whole load of financial workers out of the City. I don't think the EU would head down that path willingly, at least if they don't reject this current deal.

    I think a deal will be done. It will involve more UK concessions.

  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082
    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    B
    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    I think that is wrong. For all the hype most people are not obsessed with football - particularly once the moment has passed.England won the 1966 World Cup on 30th July that year, but I do not recall as a 12 year old at the time that all other issues were thereafter frozen out or cast aside. By the end of the Summer people had 'moved on' and the World Cup victory ceased to be a topic of day to day conversation - other than with the most fanatical of fans.Moreover, there was little - if any - electoral impact from the competition. Harold Wilson's Labour Government had been re-elected with a majority of 97 at the end of March - yet a year later it was starting to lose by elections and about to lose the GLC to the Tories by a landslide. That Government became seriously unpopular in 1967 and fell behind in the polls. I,therefore, confidently predict that even if England emerge triumphant on 15th July, it will not be on the radar screen of most people by the time of the party conferences.
    Was it after the English had lost their world title to the Scots in 1967 that the government became unpopular though?
    Serious query! Which world title?
    England had won a competition in their home country in 1966 to be crowned world football champions. The first team to beat the champions, and they did it at Wembley, was the Scots on 11th April 1967. By any sensible interpretation Scotland then became world champions instead.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unofficial_Football_World_Championships
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335
    edited July 2018
    O/T: the Thai situation is genuinely thrilling and heart-wrenching - will they make it? We should know the first outcomes in a few hours.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/jul/08/thailand-cave-rescue-operation-divers-trapped-boys-live
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    O/T: the Thai situation is genuinely thrilling and heart-wrenching - will they make it? We should know the first outcomes in a few hours.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/jul/08/thailand-cave-rescue-operation-divers-trapped-boys-live

    Those poor lads and their families

    Got everything crossed for them

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232
    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    B
    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    I think that is wrong. For all the hype most people are not obsessed with football - particularly once the moment has passed.England won the 1966 World Cup on 30th July that year, but I do not recall as a 12 year old at the time that all other issues were thereafter frozen out or cast aside. By the end of the Summer people had 'moved on' and the World Cup victory ceased to be a topic of day to day conversation - other than with the most fanatical of fans.Moreover, there was little - if any - electoral impact from the competition. Harold Wilson's Labour Government had been re-elected with a majority of 97 at the end of March - yet a year later it was starting to lose by elections and about to lose the GLC to the Tories by a landslide. That Government became seriously unpopular in 1967 and fell behind in the polls. I,therefore, confidently predict that even if England emerge triumphant on 15th July, it will not be on the radar screen of most people by the time of the party conferences.
    Was it after the English had lost their world title to the Scots in 1967 that the government became unpopular though?
    Serious query! Which world title?
    England lost a world title to Scotland in 1992 and didn't get it back until 2001. In the meantime it had also been won by Ireland and Wales.

    Which world title was it?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,296
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    I think that is wrong. For all the hype most people are not obsessed with football - particularly once the moment has passed.England won the 1966 World Cup on 30th July that year, but I do not recall as a 12 year old at the time that all other issues were thereafter frozen out or cast aside. By the end of the Summer people had 'moved on' and the World Cup victory ceased to be a topic of day to day conversation - other than with the most fanatical of fans.Moreover, there was little - if any - electoral impact from the competition. Harold Wilson's Labour Government had been re-elected with a majority of 97 at the end of March - yet a year later it was starting to lose by elections and about to lose the GLC to the Tories by a landslide. That Government became seriously unpopular in 1967 and fell behind in the polls. I,therefore, confidently predict that even if England emerge triumphant on 15th July, it will not be on the radar screen of most people by the time of the party conferences.
    Was it after the English had lost their world title to the Scots in 1967 that the government became unpopular though?
    Serious query! Which world title?
    England had won a competition in their home country in 1966 to be crowned world football champions. The first team to beat the champions, and they did it at Wembley, was the Scots on 11th April 1967. By any sensible interpretation Scotland then became world champions instead.
    Isn't that playground rules for conkers?
    I think that you will find it applies to most sports. Clearly there is a reset at the next WC which Scotland, inexplicably, were not invited to.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    B
    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    I think that is wrong. For all the hype most people are not obsessed with football - particularly once the moment has passed.England won the 1966 World Cup on 30th July that year, but I do not reGovernment became seriously unpopular in 1967 and fell behind in the polls. I,therefore, confidently predict that even if England emerge triumphant on 15th July, it will not be on the radar screen of most people by the time of the party conferences.
    Was it after the English had lost their world title to the Scots in 1967 that the government became unpopular though?
    Serious query! Which world title?
    England had won a competition in their home country in 1966 to be crowned world football champions. The first team to beat the champions, and they did it at Wembley, was the Scots on 11th April 1967. By any sensible interpretation Scotland then became world champions instead.
    Isn't that playground rules for conkers?
    Its all they have Max *** evil grin****
  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    This lie needs to be nailed. The Brexiteers (eg the real ones) have always had a plan for Brexit. It was perfectly simple. It was called CETA+ and involved an FTA extended to cover all goods and no quotas with a protocol for services. It would not have breached any EU red line and even Barnier said that this would be the obvious outcome.

    The only thing that was a problem was the fake issue of NI. The solution was MaxFac. Everyone knew it would work, but the point was that Barnier wanted to blackmail the UK into accepting vassal state status and May and the Remainers were happy to be blackmailed.

    If the UK had offered CETA with MaxFac and said that if the EU did not climb down on the NI border there would be no deal, this would have been done months ago. There is no way the EU would have picked no deal just because of Ireland, who simply are not important.

    May and Robbins deliberately accepted the NI backstop because they knew it would force us towards a soft Brexit if they played along with the myth that it was actually an EU red line.

    NI isn't a fake issue, but either way if you're a purist Brexiteer, isn't the obvious solution to do whatever it takes to get the unionists to accept special status? Given that the Good Friday Agreement already constrains UK sovereignty, there's nothing inherently outrageous about the idea so why are you so wedded to CETA+ across the whole UK as the only valid true Brexit?
    NI is not a genuine issue for the EU - it was a tactical device to push us into vassal status. So why would any patriotic Brit provide a foreign power over part of our Union just for that?

    NI is part of the UK. If they want to vote to leave the UK then I am perfectly comfortable that they should have that right and I would wish them well (and I would actually accept their decision and not try to subject them to punishment on the way out). Until that happens, it is only right and proper that they should be subject to the same rules and rights as the rest of the UK.

    The GFA does not in any way cause a problem with a MaxFac border. So there is simply no decision that needs to be made.
  • Options
    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    May has used Chequers to hide acceptence of the NI backstop in plain sight. Accepting the NI backstop will get us the WA + Transition. Transition is to nearly all intents and purposes an A50 extension. The thing May has got right is decoupling Brexit Day from anything changing thus allowing Brexit Day to happen.

    Gove for all his putrid malfeasence is extremely clever. He knows the biggest threat to Brexit in the short term is it being too Hard to get a NI border deal which means no Brexit at all. He also knows that End State won't happen for years and the fudge will set in after Brexit day. ' Real Brexit ' will then need a Champion. He's positioning himself as a pragmatist now to get Brexit over the line so he can pose as it's Champion in the Summer of next year. When he thinks the leadership election will be.

    As an aside God Alone knows what happens to politics when the penny dtops with the electorate ' Brexit ' just starts again in April as the clock resets on the End State negotiations with the 21 month transition ending in a new cliff edge. If folk are bored and anxious now wait till they realise the cathartic Brexit Day is largely smoke and mirrors for End State purposes.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    B
    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    I think t party conferences.
    Was it after the English had lost their world title to the Scots in 1967 that the government became unpopular though?
    Serious query! Which world title?
    England had won a competition in their home country in 1966 to be crowned world football champions. The first team to beat the champions, and they did it at Wembley, was the Scots on 11th April 1967. By any sensible interpretation Scotland then became world champions instead.
    Isn't that playground rules for conkers?

    Spurs are the Champions of Europe. We beat Real Madrid 4-2 on aggregate ;-)

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232

    O/T: the Thai situation is genuinely thrilling and heart-wrenching - will they make it? We should know the first outcomes in a few hours.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/jul/08/thailand-cave-rescue-operation-divers-trapped-boys-live

    That seems a seriously risky operation. If a highly experienced diver could die on the way out, the prospects for teenage boys who've never dived before seem pretty grim.

    Here's hoping I am extremely wrong and they all get out safely.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,061

    This lie needs to be nailed. The Brexiteers (eg the real ones) have always had a plan for Brexit. It was perfectly simple. It was called CETA+ and involved an FTA extended to cover all goods and no quotas with a protocol for services. It would not have breached any EU red line and even Barnier said that this would be the obvious outcome.

    The only thing that was a problem was the fake issue of NI. The solution was MaxFac. Everyone knew it would work, but the point was that Barnier wanted to blackmail the UK into accepting vassal state status and May and the Remainers were happy to be blackmailed.

    If the UK had offered CETA with MaxFac and said that if the EU did not climb down on the NI border there would be no deal, this would have been done months ago. There is no way the EU would have picked no deal just because of Ireland, who simply are not important.

    May and Robbins deliberately accepted the NI backstop because they knew it would force us towards a soft Brexit if they played along with the myth that it was actually an EU red line.

    NI isn't a fake issue, but either way if you're a purist Brexiteer, isn't the obvious solution to do whatever it takes to get the unionists to accept special status? Given that the Good Friday Agreement already constrains UK sovereignty, there's nothing inherently outrageous about the idea so why are you so wedded to CETA+ across the whole UK as the only valid true Brexit?
    NI is not a genuine issue for the EU - it was a tactical device to push us into vassal status. So why would any patriotic Brit provide a foreign power over part of our Union just for that?

    NI is part of the UK. If they want to vote to leave the UK then I am perfectly comfortable that they should have that right and I would wish them well (and I would actually accept their decision and not try to subject them to punishment on the way out). Until that happens, it is only right and proper that they should be subject to the same rules and rights as the rest of the UK.

    The GFA does not in any way cause a problem with a MaxFac border. So there is simply no decision that needs to be made.
    NI already has a different constitutional status within the UK because it has a unilateral right of secession codified into the Good Friday Agreement. Why not have a referendum in NI on special status (which would pass with a strong majority), and then Barnier's tactics would be ineffective? Is it just that you feel we'd lose face if a consequence of Brexit was that part of the territory of the UK end up under a different economic regime?
  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    “You have to get behind someone before you can stab them in the back.”

    Remember Boris. One rule of politics, do not trust Gove.

    Unreal. Gove is admitting that May will offer FOM (by another name) but she puts out a statement saying that she guaranteed FOM will be ending.

    The Tories have tried this trick (eg lying through their teeth) so many times on Europe that it is almost impossible to understand how they have not realised that nobody believes them. Not even their own members apparently. Same strategy as Cameron - sell out then lie and hope that you can spin a victory. And it worked so well last time.
    The most interesting stat from the new Survation is that while no alternative contender in the Tories to succeed May would make most voters more likely to vote Tory, the Tory contender likeliest to make more voters vote Tory was Rees Mogg
    That is not in the slightest a surprise to me, nor was the poll showing that 60% of Tory members thinks this deal sucks. And JRM will be back at the top of the leadership poll in a week if he plays his cards right. Gove, on the other hand, is finished after today's interview.

    The events of the last few days have been a huge boost to the prospect of JRM as PM. May will keep conceding to the EU until every red line is non-existent and there are basically no other leavers left who have not been fatally compromised. I actually think if Boris had resigned and gone rogue the Tory membership would have flocked back to him (and so would JRM and his support as JRM would not stand against him) but he didn't have the guts.

    Now over to JRM. I assume he will let the dust settle and engage in a forensic demolition of the Chequers deal and finally come out and conclude that he will vote against it. Lets see how many of the ERG follow suit. If the ERG are not as spineless as other Tories (some hope) then they can get the numbers to vote down any WA.
  • Options
    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    The other interesting dynamic is old school EEA Brexiters seeing Chequers as an oppertunity to put their Frankenstein's Monster back in it's box. These folk have never bothered about immigration, NHS spending,cultural grevience or the atomsed ex industrial areas. They will now scream pragmatism at those blocs within the Leave movement they used to win. I don't think Frankenstein's Monster will retire so easierly ( read the book ) particularly as folk who's world view is to feel betrayed are about to be betrayed.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335
    ydoethur said:

    O/T: the Thai situation is genuinely thrilling and heart-wrenching - will they make it? We should know the first outcomes in a few hours.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/jul/08/thailand-cave-rescue-operation-divers-trapped-boys-live

    That seems a seriously risky operation. If a highly experienced diver could die on the way out, the prospects for teenage boys who've never dived before seem pretty grim.

    Here's hoping I am extremely wrong and they all get out safely.
    Yes. I think he got caught by an unexpected loss of oxygen in part of the cave system, and collapsed with only one other diver nearby. The boys will have a lot of helpers in front and behind them, so with a lot of luck may make it.

    If they do, I think it'll be an occasion for celebration of sheer human ingenuity all round - everyone from the otherwise-dubious Thai military to the countless volunteers deserve a great deal of thanks.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,061

    May has used Chequers to hide acceptence of the NI backstop in plain sight. Accepting the NI backstop will get us the WA + Transition. Transition is to nearly all intents and purposes an A50 extension. The thing May has got right is decoupling Brexit Day from anything changing thus allowing Brexit Day to happen.

    Gove for all his putrid malfeasence is extremely clever. He knows the biggest threat to Brexit in the short term is it being too Hard to get a NI border deal which means no Brexit at all. He also knows that End State won't happen for years and the fudge will set in after Brexit day. ' Real Brexit ' will then need a Champion. He's positioning himself as a pragmatist now to get Brexit over the line so he can pose as it's Champion in the Summer of next year. When he thinks the leadership election will be.

    As an aside God Alone knows what happens to politics when the penny dtops with the electorate ' Brexit ' just starts again in April as the clock resets on the End State negotiations with the 21 month transition ending in a new cliff edge. If folk are bored and anxious now wait till they realise the cathartic Brexit Day is largely smoke and mirrors for End State purposes.

    And to add insult to injury, those negotiations will have the sword of Damocles of an Irish sea border hanging over them if the UK isn't able to negotiate frictionless borders for the whole UK-EU relationship...

    Personally I still think it won't get across the line.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Will the UK , be holding a football match against the rest of the EU when we leave ?

    As we did when we joined back in 1973 .

    http://footysphere.com/post/1731111378/three-v-six-football-match-1973
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    “You have to get behind someone before you can stab them in the back.”

    Remember Boris. One rule of politics, do not trust Gove.

    Unreal. Gove is admitting that May will offer FOM (by another name) but she puts out a statement saying that she guaranteed FOM will be ending.

    The Tories have tried this trick (eg lying through their teeth) so many times on Europe that it is almost impossible to understand how they have not realised that nobody believes them. Not even their own members apparently. Same strategy as Cameron - sell out then lie and hope that you can spin a victory. And it worked so well last time.
    The most interesting stat from the new Survation is that while no alternative contender in the Tories to succeed May would make most voters more likely to vote Tory, the Tory contender likeliest to make more voters vote Tory was Rees Mogg
    That is not in the slightest a surprise to me, nor was the poll showing that 60% of Tory members thinks this deal sucks. And JRM will be back at the top of the leadership poll in a week if he plays his cards right. Gove, on the other hand, is finished after today's interview.

    The events of the last few days have been a huge boost to the prospect of JRM as PM. May will keep conceding to the EU until every red line is non-existent and there are basically no other leavers left who have not been fatally compromised. I actually think if Boris had resigned and gone rogue the Tory membership would have flocked back to him (and so would JRM and his support as JRM would not stand against him) but he didn't have the guts.

    Now over to JRM. I assume he will let the dust settle and engage in a forensic demolition of the Chequers deal and finally come out and conclude that he will vote against it. Lets see how many of the ERG follow suit. If the ERG are not as spineless as other Tories (some hope) then they can get the numbers to vote down any WA.
    I agree JRM has been boosted by being the only prominent Tory potential leadership candidate to come out against May's deal, Mogg is now the clear 'Prince across the water' for most Brexiteers
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Just what the hell is it with our countries interpretation of EU rules:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jul/08/insurance-rules-punish-uk-hotels-holidays-staycation-heatwave
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082

    HYUFD said:



    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    By that logic we should allow unlimited immigration from the whole world in the hope that in fifty years time some of their descendants might be talented at sports.

    And what about the 99.99% who aren't ?

    That was not my point.

    Its the logical conclusion of your thought that restricting unskilled immigration in previous generation might have removed certain footballers from being available for England.

    My waves.

    That's some convoluted reasoning - a footballer's grandad might not have been a skilled worker so that makes English nationalism intellectually incoherent.

    Here's some more convoluted reasoning - if so much of the country's wealth was not being consumed by the unskilled there would be more to invest in excellence including sports which would mean that the England football team would be more successful. Therefore advocates of unrestricted immigration have stopped England winning the World Cup.

    It is intellectually incoherent to say that a World Cup victory enabled by something you oppose demonstrates that what you support is achievable.

    On your point - the Premier League is the wealthier than any other football league in the world. More of the world's richest football clubs are based in England than anywhere else. If money is not being spent on grassroots football, that is because those running football in this country have decided not to do it, not because there is not enough money.

    This 'the actions of your grandkids will prove the value of your life' is fascinating.

    So if the grandson of an immigrant turns out to be a murderer then all those who supported the original migration are enablers of murder.

    How long does this unofficial contract last ? Down to the ninety-ninth generation perhaps ? I'm sure the Bible will give a clue.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    Of course - and those contracts are serviced by people qualified to do the job in the relevant countries. But if there is no Brexit deal around services, current UK qualifications that allow services to be supplied from the UK inside the EU will no longer be recognised.

    Without qualifications equivalence it will make it very tough for skilled EU workers to find jobs in the UK, I expect the EU will be quite amenable to existing qualifications equivalence being retained. It makes much more sense for them, given there are 3.5m EU workers in the UK with EU qualifications that would no longer be recognised in the UK without an equivalence deal.

    Additionally, I'm going to take my own example, I have a chartership which is internationally recognised. If the EU ceased to recognise it then it locks a whole load of financial workers out of the City. I don't think the EU would head down that path willingly, at least if they don't reject this current deal.

    I think a deal will be done. It will involve more UK concessions.

    If anything equivalence on qualifications will be a concession by the EU, we definitely have a much stronger position, there are a lot more people working in the UK with EU qualifications than the other way around. The issue is that the remainers in number 10 and 11 are too simple minded to press any advantage we have.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937

    HYUFD said:



    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    By that logic we should allow unlimited immigration from the whole world in the hope that in fifty years time some of their descendants might be talented at sports.

    And what about the 99.99% who aren't ?

    That was not my point.

    Its the logical conclusion of your thought that restricting unskilled immigration in previous generation might have removed certain footballers from being available for England.

    My waves.

    That's some convoluted reasoning - a footballer's grandad might not have been a skilled worker so that makes English nationalism intellectually incoherent.

    Here's some more convoluted reasoning - if so much of the country's wealth was not being consumed by the unskilled there would be more to invest in excellence including sports which would mean that the England football team would be more successful. Therefore advocates of unrestricted immigration have stopped England winning the World Cup.

    It is intellectually incoherent to say that a World Cup victory enabled by something you oppose demonstrates that what you support is achievable.

    On your point - the Premier League is the wealthier than any other football league in the world. More of the world's richest football clubs are based in England than anywhere else. If money is not being spent on grassroots football, that is because those running football in this country have decided not to do it, not because there is not enough money.

    This 'the actions of your grandkids will prove the value of your life' is fascinating.

    So if the grandson of an immigrant turns out to be a murderer then all those who supported the original migration are enablers of murder.

    How long does this unofficial contract last ? Down to the ninety-ninth generation perhaps ? I'm sure the Bible will give a clue.

    I see you have run out of arguments. Cheers!

  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,123


    As an aside God Alone knows what happens to politics when the penny dtops with the electorate ' Brexit ' just starts again in April as the clock resets on the End State negotiations with the 21 month transition ending in a new cliff edge. If folk are bored and anxious now wait till they realise the cathartic Brexit Day is largely smoke and mirrors for End State purposes.

    May's greatest failing will be not putting to bed the settlement for our exit from the EU. I used to think it impossible that any politician would get traction for the idea of re-opening the deal. I now think it is almost inevitable that a significant number of voters will get behind someone who says we need a REAL Brexit. And those voters will very largely come from the Conservative Party.

    Anthony Eden will be chuckling. "And you thought I was rubbish?"

    (I didn't know Eden was awarded the Military Cross, nor that at 19, he was the youngest adjutant on the Western Front.)
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082

    The other interesting dynamic is old school EEA Brexiters seeing Chequers as an oppertunity to put their Frankenstein's Monster back in it's box. These folk have never bothered about immigration, NHS spending,cultural grevience or the atomsed ex industrial areas. They will now scream pragmatism at those blocs within the Leave movement they used to win. I don't think Frankenstein's Monster will retire so easierly ( read the book ) particularly as folk who's world view is to feel betrayed are about to be betrayed.

    Yet its not been the EEA Brexiters who have pedalled lies about immediate recessions, job losses, the City relocating to Frankfurt, attacks on immigrants, falls in manufacturing investment and the crops rotting in the fields.
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    HYUFD said:



    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    By that logic we should allow unlimited immigration from the whole world in the hope that in fifty years time some of their descendants might be talented at sports.

    And what about the 99.99% who aren't ?

    That was not my point.

    Its the logical conclusion of your thought that restricting unskilled immigration in previous generation might have removed certain footballers from being available for England.

    My waves.

    That's some convoluted reasoning - a footballer's grandad might not have been a skilled worker so that makes English nationalism intellectually incoherent.

    Here's some more convoluted reasoning - if so much of the country's wealth was not being consumed by the unskilled there would be more to invest in excellence including sports which would mean that the England football team would be more successful. Therefore advocates of unrestricted immigration have stopped England winning the World Cup.

    It is intellectually incoherent to say that a World Cup victory enabled by something you oppose demonstrates that what you support is achievable.

    On your point - the Premier League is the wealthier than any other football league in the world. More of the world's richest football clubs are based in England than anywhere else. If money is not being spent on grassroots football, that is because those running football in this country have decided not to do it, not because there is not enough money.

    This 'the actions of your grandkids will prove the value of your life' is fascinating.

    So if the grandson of an immigrant turns out to be a murderer then all those who supported the original migration are enablers of murder.

    How long does this unofficial contract last ? Down to the ninety-ninth generation perhaps ? I'm sure the Bible will give a clue.

    I see you have run out of arguments. Cheers!

    He simply repeated the samr argument in the opposite direction.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,061

    May's greatest failing will be not putting to bed the settlement for our exit from the EU. I used to think it impossible that any politician would get traction for the idea of re-opening the deal. I now think it is almost inevitable that a significant number of voters will get behind someone who says we need a REAL Brexit. And those voters will very largely come from the Conservative Party.

    Anthony Eden will be chuckling. "And you thought I was rubbish?"

    https://twitter.com/JvdRieth/status/1015693771558842368
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046

    O/T: the Thai situation is genuinely thrilling and heart-wrenching - will they make it? We should know the first outcomes in a few hours.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/jul/08/thailand-cave-rescue-operation-divers-trapped-boys-live

    I don't tend to follow news 'stories' but you are right. We have to accept how risky it is though.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082



    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    By that logic we should allow unlimited immigration from the whole world in the hope that in fifty years time some of their descendants might be talented at sports.

    And what about the 99.99% who aren't ?

    That was not my point.

    Its the logical conclusion of your thought that restricting unskilled immigration in previous generation might have removed certain footballers from being available for England.

    My waves.

    That's some convoluted reasoning - a footballer's grandad might not have been a skilled worker so that makes English nationalism intellectually incoherent.

    Here's some more convoluted reasoning - if so much of the country's wealth was not being consumed by the unskilled there would be more to invest in excellence including sports which would mean that the England football team would be more successful. Therefore advocates of unrestricted immigration have stopped England winning the World Cup.

    It is intellectually incoherent to say that a World Cup victory enabled by something you oppose demonstrates that what you support is achievable.

    On your point - the Premier League is the wealthier than any other football league in the world. More of the world's richest football clubs are based in England than anywhere else. If money is not being spent on grassroots football, that is because those running football in this country have decided not to do it, not because there is not enough money.

    This 'the actions of your grandkids will prove the value of your life' is fascinating.

    So if the grandson of an immigrant turns out to be a murderer then all those who supported the original migration are enablers of murder.

    How long does this unofficial contract last ? Down to the ninety-ninth generation perhaps ? I'm sure the Bible will give a clue.

    I see you have run out of arguments. Cheers!

    I'm afraid your logic has disappeared a long way up your own arse.

    Take my advice and keep working, it will keep your mind on constructive things rather than on bizarre drivel like this.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    edited July 2018
    Elliot said:

    HYUFD said:



    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    By that logic we should allow unlimited immigration from the whole world in the hope that in fifty years time some of their descendants might be talented at sports.

    And what about the 99.99% who aren't ?

    That was not my point.

    Its the logical conclusion of your thought that restricting unskilled immigration in previous generation might have removed certain footballers from being available for England.

    My waves.

    That's some convoluted reasoning - a footballer's grandad might not have been a skilled worker so that makes English nationalism intellectually incoherent.

    Here's some more convoluted reasoning - if so much of the country's wealth was not being consumed by the unskilled there would be more to invest in excellence including sports which would mean that the England football team would be more successful. Therefore advocates of unrestricted immigration have stopped England winning the World Cup.

    It is intellectually incoherent to say that a World Cup victory enabled by something you oppose demonstrates that what you support is achievable.

    One those running football in this country have decided not to do it, not because there is not enough money.

    This 'the actions of your grandkids will prove the value of your life' is fascinating.

    So if the grandson of an immigrant turns out to be a murderer then all those who supported the original migration are enablers of murder.

    How long does this unofficial contract last ? Down to the ninety-ninth generation perhaps ? I'm sure the Bible will give a clue.

    I see you have run out of arguments. Cheers!

    He simply repeated the samr argument in the opposite direction.

    My argument is that if you are opposed to unskilled immigration don’t use a World Cup victory enabled by it as justification for your cause. My argument was not that unlimited unskilled immigration is a good thing.

  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937



    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    By that logic we should allow unlimited immigration from the whole world in the hope that in fifty years time some of their descendants might be talented at sports.

    And what about the 99.99% who aren't ?

    That was not my point.

    Its the logical conclusion of your thought that restricting unskilled immigration in previous generation might have removed certain footballers from being available for England.

    My waves.

    That's some convoluted reasoning - a footballer's grandad might not have been a skilled worker so that makes English nationalism intellectually incoherent.

    Here's some more convoluted reasoning - if so much of the country's wealth was not being consumed by the unskilled there would be more to invest in excellence including sports which would mean that the England football team would be more successful. Therefore advocates of unrestricted immigration have stopped England winning the World Cup.

    It is intellectually incoherent to say that a World Cup victory enabled by something you oppose demonstrates that what you support is achievable.

    On your point - the Premier League is the wealthier than any other football league in the world. More of the world's richest football clubs are based in England than anywhere else. If money is not being spent on grassroots football, that is because those running football in this country have decided not to do it, not because there is not enough money.

    This 'the actions of your grandkids will prove the value of your life' is fascinating.

    So if the grandson of an immigrant turns out to be a murderer then all those who supported the original migration are enablers of murder.

    How long does this unofficial contract last ? Down to the ninety-ninth generation perhaps ? I'm sure the Bible will give a clue.

    I see you have run out of arguments. Cheers!

    I'm afraid your logic has disappeared a long way up your own arse.

    Take my advice and keep working, it will keep your mind on constructive things rather than on bizarre drivel like this.

    I am sorry you do not understand my point. If you want to blame me for that, so be it.

  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516


    As an aside God Alone knows what happens to politics when the penny dtops with the electorate ' Brexit ' just starts again in April as the clock resets on the End State negotiations with the 21 month transition ending in a new cliff edge. If folk are bored and anxious now wait till they realise the cathartic Brexit Day is largely smoke and mirrors for End State purposes.

    May's greatest failing will be not putting to bed the settlement for our exit from the EU. I used to think it impossible that any politician would get traction for the idea of re-opening the deal. I now think it is almost inevitable that a significant number of voters will get behind someone who says we need a REAL Brexit. And those voters will very largely come from the Conservative Party.

    Anthony Eden will be chuckling. "And you thought I was rubbish?"

    (I didn't know Eden was awarded the Military Cross, nor that at 19, he was the youngest adjutant on the Western Front.)
    Part of the point of returning sovereignty is that we end this anti-democratic mentality of policy being unable to be changed for decades, regardless of election results. If future electorates and parliament want to reopen negotiation that is entirely right and proper.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,061
    Elliot said:

    Part of the point of returning sovereignty is that we end this anti-democratic mentality of policy being unable to be changed for decades, regardless of election results.

    image
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Two boys rescued
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    “You have to get behind someone before you can stab them in the back.”

    Remember Boris. One rule of politics, do not trust Gove.

    Unreal. Gove is admitting that May will offer FOM (by another name) but she puts out a statement saying that she guaranteed FOM will be ending.

    The Tories have tried this trick (eg lying through their teeth) so many times on Europe that it is almost impossible to understand how they have not realised that nobody believes them. Not even their own members apparently. Same strategy as Cameron - sell out then lie and hope that you can spin a victory. And it worked so well last time.
    The most interesting stat from the new Survation is that while no alternative contender in the Tories to succeed May would make most voters more likely to vote Tory, the Tory contender likeliest to make more voters vote Tory was Rees Mogg
    That is not in the slightest a surprise to me, nor was the poll showing that 60% of Tory members thinks this deal sucks. And JRM will be back at the top of the leadership poll in a week if he plays his cards right. Gove, on the other hand, is finished after today's interview.

    The events of the last few days have been a huge boost to the prospect of JRM as PM. May will keep conceding to the EU until every red line is non-existent and there are basically no other leavers left who have not been fatally compromised. I actually think if Boris had resigned and gone rogue the Tory membership would have flocked back to him (and so would JRM and his support as JRM would not stand against him) but he didn't have the guts.

    Now over to JRM. I assume he will let the dust settle and engage in a forensic demolition of the Chequers deal and finally come out and conclude that he will vote against it. Lets see how many of the ERG follow suit. If the ERG are not as spineless as other Tories (some hope) then they can get the numbers to vote down any WA.
    I agree JRM has been boosted by being the only prominent Tory potential leadership candidate to come out against May's deal, Mogg is now the clear 'Prince across the water' for most Brexiteers
    I still doubt MPs will put him into the last two, but have just added a bit on him to just go green.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,123
    Elliot said:


    As an aside God Alone knows what happens to politics when the penny dtops with the electorate ' Brexit ' just starts again in April as the clock resets on the End State negotiations with the 21 month transition ending in a new cliff edge. If folk are bored and anxious now wait till they realise the cathartic Brexit Day is largely smoke and mirrors for End State purposes.

    May's greatest failing will be not putting to bed the settlement for our exit from the EU. I used to think it impossible that any politician would get traction for the idea of re-opening the deal. I now think it is almost inevitable that a significant number of voters will get behind someone who says we need a REAL Brexit. And those voters will very largely come from the Conservative Party.

    Anthony Eden will be chuckling. "And you thought I was rubbish?"

    (I didn't know Eden was awarded the Military Cross, nor that at 19, he was the youngest adjutant on the Western Front.)
    Part of the point of returning sovereignty is that we end this anti-democratic mentality of policy being unable to be changed for decades, regardless of election results. If future electorates and parliament want to reopen negotiation that is entirely right and proper.
    There is a huge difference between having the opportunity to re-open neotiations - which is never used because the deal is broadly accepted as implementing Brexit - and a deal so shite that a political movement can get traction to actually use that opportunity.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232

    ydoethur said:

    O/T: the Thai situation is genuinely thrilling and heart-wrenching - will they make it? We should know the first outcomes in a few hours.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/jul/08/thailand-cave-rescue-operation-divers-trapped-boys-live

    That seems a seriously risky operation. If a highly experienced diver could die on the way out, the prospects for teenage boys who've never dived before seem pretty grim.

    Here's hoping I am extremely wrong and they all get out safely.
    Yes. I think he got caught by an unexpected loss of oxygen in part of the cave system, and collapsed with only one other diver nearby. The boys will have a lot of helpers in front and behind them, so with a lot of luck may make it.

    If they do, I think it'll be an occasion for celebration of sheer human ingenuity all round - everyone from the otherwise-dubious Thai military to the countless volunteers deserve a great deal of thanks.
    Amen to that.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

    B
    And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

    An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

    " It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

    I think that is wrong. For all the hype most people are not obsessed with football - particularly once the moment has passed.England won the 1966 World Cup on 30th July that year, but I do not recall as a 12 year old at the time that all other issues were thereafter frozen out or cast aside. By the end of the Summer people had 'moved on' and the World Cup victory ceased to be a topic of day to day conversation - other than with the most fanatical of fans.Moreover, there was little - if any - electoral impact from the competition. Harold Wilson's Labour Government had been re-elected with a majority of 97 at the end of March - yet a year later it was starting to lose by elections and about to lose the GLC to the Tories by a landslide. That Government became seriously unpopular in 1967 and fell behind in the polls. I,therefore, confidently predict that even if England emerge triumphant on 15th July, it will not be on the radar screen of most people by the time of the party conferences.
    Was it after the English had lost their world title to the Scots in 1967 that the government became unpopular though?
    Serious query! Which world title?
    England had won a competition in their home country in 1966 to be crowned world football champions. The first team to beat the champions, and they did it at Wembley, was the Scots on 11th April 1967. By any sensible interpretation Scotland then became world champions instead.
    So that explains how Winnie Ewing won Hamilton for the SNP in the following November!
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335
    Pulpstar said:

    Two boys rescued

    +++++++!
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    O/T: the Thai situation is genuinely thrilling and heart-wrenching - will they make it? We should know the first outcomes in a few hours.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/jul/08/thailand-cave-rescue-operation-divers-trapped-boys-live

    That seems a seriously risky operation. If a highly experienced diver could die on the way out, the prospects for teenage boys who've never dived before seem pretty grim.

    Here's hoping I am extremely wrong and they all get out safely.
    Yes. I think he got caught by an unexpected loss of oxygen in part of the cave system, and collapsed with only one other diver nearby. The boys will have a lot of helpers in front and behind them, so with a lot of luck may make it.

    If they do, I think it'll be an occasion for celebration of sheer human ingenuity all round - everyone from the otherwise-dubious Thai military to the countless volunteers deserve a great deal of thanks.
    Amen to that.
    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1015925658202013696
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,061

    Elliot said:


    As an aside God Alone knows what happens to politics when the penny dtops with the electorate ' Brexit ' just starts again in April as the clock resets on the End State negotiations with the 21 month transition ending in a new cliff edge. If folk are bored and anxious now wait till they realise the cathartic Brexit Day is largely smoke and mirrors for End State purposes.

    May's greatest failing will be not putting to bed the settlement for our exit from the EU. I used to think it impossible that any politician would get traction for the idea of re-opening the deal. I now think it is almost inevitable that a significant number of voters will get behind someone who says we need a REAL Brexit. And those voters will very largely come from the Conservative Party.

    Anthony Eden will be chuckling. "And you thought I was rubbish?"

    (I didn't know Eden was awarded the Military Cross, nor that at 19, he was the youngest adjutant on the Western Front.)
    Part of the point of returning sovereignty is that we end this anti-democratic mentality of policy being unable to be changed for decades, regardless of election results. If future electorates and parliament want to reopen negotiation that is entirely right and proper.
    There is a huge difference between having the opportunity to re-open neotiations - which is never used because the deal is broadly accepted as implementing Brexit - and a deal so shite that a political movement can get traction to actually use that opportunity.
    If the official plan heading into March 2019 is something similar to the Chequers agreement that is being attacked by both sides before we've even started, what hope does it have of sticking?
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Elliot said:

    HYUFD said:



    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    By that logic we should allow unlimited immigration from the whole world in the hope that in fifty years time some of their descendants might be talented at sports.

    And what about the 99.99% who aren't ?

    That was not my point.

    Its the logical conclusion of your thought that restricting unskilled immigration in previous generation might have removed certain footballers from being available for England.

    My waves.

    It is intellectually incoherent to say that a World Cup victory enabled by something you oppose demonstrates that what you support is achievable.

    One those running football in this country have decided not to do it, not because there is not enough money.

    This 'the actions of your grandkids will prove the value of your life' is fascinating.

    So if the grandson of an immigrant turns out to be a murderer then all those who supported the original migration are enablers of murder.

    How long does this unofficial contract last ? Down to the ninety-ninth generation perhaps ? I'm sure the Bible will give a clue.

    I see you have run out of arguments. Cheers!

    He simply repeated the samr argument in the opposite direction.

    My argument is that if you are opposed to unskilled immigration don’t use a World Cup victory enabled by it as justification for your cause. My argument was not that unlimited unskilled immigration is a good thing.

    And as the flip made clear, that is a ridiculous argument, unless you subscribe to BNP-style racial determination. The current England team were born and brought up English. It makes no more sense to say their success was made possible by immigration, than saying a murder by the descendant of an immigrant was made possible by immigration. Sure, you can draw a chain of events between the two, but you could do the same by saying Glenn Hoddle's muddled Buddhism led up to this. It's a meaningless chain.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,847

    MaxPB said:

    I think people opposing this deal would rather hold onto their purity than get out of the EU. Disappointing.

    Gove is playing the long game - don’t make best the enemy of good - just get us out, and we can take things from there.
    Typical Tories - here we go, the lies begin. They sell out the country to the EU and the justification is always the same - party before country, we will fix it later.

    The truth that everyone can see is that the deal done now will never, ever be 'improved' - can of these Tories actually provide any scenario in which any Government will revisit this agreement? Of course not. For no other reason that May will agree that the NI backstop will come into force if we ever exit the trade agreement.

    We are leaving the EU anyway, nothing can stop that. So this idea that somehow Brexit is at risk if May doesn't sell out is an utter lie. The truth is that Gove is thinking of his own career, just like every member of the cabinet.
    It took Australia, Canada, New Zealand etc. many years to achieve full independence. Joining the EU took years, and leaving it will take years.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082



    That was not my point.

    Its the logical conclusion of your thought that restricting unskilled immigration in previous generation might have removed certain footballers from being available for England.

    My waves.

    That's some convoluted reasoning - a footballer's grandad might not have been a skilled worker so that makes English nationalism intellectually incoherent.

    Here's some more convoluted reasoning - if so much of the country's wealth was not being consumed by the unskilled there would be more to invest in excellence including sports which would mean that the England football team would be more successful. Therefore advocates of unrestricted immigration have stopped England winning the World Cup.

    It is intellectually incoherent to say that a World Cup victory enabled by something you oppose demonstrates that what you support is achievable.

    On your point - the Premier League is the wealthier than any other football league in the world. More of the world's richest football clubs are based in England than anywhere else. If money is not being spent on grassroots football, that is because those running football in this country have decided not to do it, not because there is not enough money.

    This 'the actions of your grandkids will prove the value of your life' is fascinating.

    So if the grandson of an immigrant turns out to be a murderer then all those who supported the original migration are enablers of murder.

    How long does this unofficial contract last ? Down to the ninety-ninth generation perhaps ? I'm sure the Bible will give a clue.

    I see you have run out of arguments. Cheers!

    I'm afraid your logic has disappeared a long way up your own arse.

    Take my advice and keep working, it will keep your mind on constructive things rather than on bizarre drivel like this.

    I am sorry you do not understand my point. If you want to blame me for that, so be it.

    I understand your point and like most things has a direct opposite and when taking to its extreme conclusion is ridiculous.

    Whether those extreme positions are taken by English Nationalists or ultra open border Internationalists is irrelevant.

    So an England WC win should provide no intellectual basis for either restricted or unrestricted immigration.
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Elliot said:

    Part of the point of returning sovereignty is that we end this anti-democratic mentality of policy being unable to be changed for decades, regardless of election results.

    image
    An organisation that has been restructured once a decade. Thank you for proving my point.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,847
    Pulpstar said:

    Two boys rescued

    Excellent news. But, I can't help thinking their coach should be prosecuted.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    But how many. 1 or 2? Or the mythical required 8?
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Elliot said:


    As an aside God Alone knows what happens to politics when the penny dtops with the electorate ' Brexit ' just starts again in April as the clock resets on the End State negotiations with the 21 month transition ending in a new cliff edge. If folk are bored and anxious now wait till they realise the cathartic Brexit Day is largely smoke and mirrors for End State purposes.

    May's greatest failing will be not putting to bed the settlement for our exit from the EU. I used to think it impossible that any politician would get traction for the idea of re-opening the deal. I now think it is almost inevitable that a significant number of voters will get behind someone who says we need a REAL Brexit. And those voters will very largely come from the Conservative Party.

    Anthony Eden will be chuckling. "And you thought I was rubbish?"

    (I didn't know Eden was awarded the Military Cross, nor that at 19, he was the youngest adjutant on the Western Front.)
    Part of the point of returning sovereignty is that we end this anti-democratic mentality of policy being unable to be changed for decades, regardless of election results. If future electorates and parliament want to reopen negotiation that is entirely right and proper.
    There is a huge difference between having the opportunity to re-open neotiations - which is never used because the deal is broadly accepted as implementing Brexit - and a deal so shite that a political movement can get traction to actually use that opportunity.
    The world is a fast changing place. It is right that the deal can be reopened as necessary to address that. A classic counter example is Schengen being unable to cope with new migration challenges, but EU mechanisms being completely unable to adapt to that.
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    These people are idiots. They genuinely can't accept a deal where they get 90% of what they want.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937



    That was not my point.

    Its the logical conclusion of your thought that restricting unskilled immigration in previous generation might have removed certain footballers from being available for England.

    My waves.

    That's some convoluted reasoning - a footballer's grandad might not have been a skilled worker so that makes English nationalism intellectually incoherent.

    Here's some more convoluted reasoning - if so much of the country's wealth was not being consumed by the unskilled there would be more to invest in excellence including sports which would mean that the England football team would be more successful. Therefore advocates of unrestricted immigration have stopped England winning the World Cup.

    It is intellectually incoherent to say that a World Cup victory enabled by something you oppose demonstrates that what you support is achievable.

    On your point - the Premier League is because there is not enough money.

    This 'the actions of your grandkids will prove the value of your life' is fascinating.

    So ifurder.

    How long does this unofficial contract last ? Down to the ninety-ninth generation perhaps ? I'm sure the Bible will give a clue.

    I see you have run out of arguments. Cheers!

    I'm afraid your logic has disappeared a long way up your own arse.

    Take my advice and keep working, it will keep your mind on constructive things rather than on bizarre drivel like this.

    I am sorry you do not understand my point. If you want to blame me for that, so be it.

    I understand your point and like most things has a direct opposite and when taking to its extreme conclusion is ridiculous.

    Whether those extreme positions are taken by English Nationalists or ultra open border Internationalists is irrelevant.

    So an England WC win should provide no intellectual basis for either restricted or unrestricted immigration.

    Which is pretty much exactly what I said right in my response to HYUFD at the start of all of this!!!!

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,293
    Football.... must... have... football...
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Elliot said:


    As an aside God Alone knows what happens to politics when the penny dtops with the electorate ' Brexit ' just starts again in April as the clock resets on the End State negotiations with the 21 month transition ending in a new cliff edge. If folk are bored and anxious now wait till they realise the cathartic Brexit Day is largely smoke and mirrors for End State purposes.

    May's greatest failing will be not putting to bed the settlement for our exit from the EU. I used to think it impossible that any politician would get traction for the idea of re-opening the deal. I now think it is almost inevitable that a significant number of voters will get behind someone who says we need a REAL Brexit. And those voters will very largely come from the Conservative Party.

    Anthony Eden will be chuckling. "And you thought I was rubbish?"

    (I didn't know Eden was awarded the Military Cross, nor that at 19, he was the youngest adjutant on the Western Front.)
    Part of the point of returning sovereignty is that we end this anti-democratic mentality of policy being unable to be changed for decades, regardless of election results. If future electorates and parliament want to reopen negotiation that is entirely right and proper.
    There is a huge difference between having the opportunity to re-open neotiations - which is never used because the deal is broadly accepted as implementing Brexit - and a deal so shite that a political movement can get traction to actually use that opportunity.
    If the official plan heading into March 2019 is something similar to the Chequers agreement that is being attacked by both sides before we've even started, what hope does it have of sticking?
    Far more than a deal that is attacked by only one side?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,672
    Elliot said:

    These people are idiots. They genuinely can't accept a deal where they get 90% of what they want.
    They’re running the risk of getting 0%....
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think people opposing this deal would rather hold onto their purity than get out of the EU. Disappointing.

    Gove is playing the long game - don’t make best the enemy of good - just get us out, and we can take things from there.
    Typical Tories - here we go, the lies begin. They sell out the country to the EU and the justification is always the same - party before country, we will fix it later.

    The truth that everyone can see is that the deal done now will never, ever be 'improved' - can of these Tories actually provide any scenario in which any Government will revisit this agreement? Of course not. For no other reason that May will agree that the NI backstop will come into force if we ever exit the trade agreement.

    We are leaving the EU anyway, nothing can stop that. So this idea that somehow Brexit is at risk if May doesn't sell out is an utter lie. The truth is that Gove is thinking of his own career, just like every member of the cabinet.
    It took Australia, Canada, New Zealand etc. many years to achieve full independence. Joining the EU took years, and leaving it will take years.
    How long did full Irish independence take ?

    Wasn't it only in the 1970s that they ended the link to sterling ?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Two boys rescued

    Excellent news. But, I can't help thinking their coach should be prosecuted.
    If he was a good coach they could have driven out.

    I'm not getting my coat as it's too fecking hot.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    Elliot said:

    Elliot said:

    HYUFD said:



    Most people have no problem with immigrants with skill and talent as this English team undoubtedly has, it is unskilled immigration they have a problem with

    The current England team is made up of Englishmen. But the parents and grandparents of many of them were unskilled immigrants. That was my point.

    By that logic we should allow unlimited immigration from the whole world in the hope that in fifty years time some of their descendants might be talented at sports.

    And what about the 99.99% who aren't ?

    That was not my point.

    Its the logical conclusion of your thought that restricting unskilled immigration in previous generation might have removed certain footballers from being available for England.

    My waves.

    It is intellectually incoherent to say that a World Cup victory enabled by something you oppose demonstrates that what you support is achievable.

    One those running football in this country have decided not to do it, not because there is not enough money.

    This 'the actions of your grandkids will prove the value of your life' is fascinating.

    So if the grandson of an immigrant turns out to be a murderer then all those who supported the original migration are enablers of murder.

    How long does this unofficial contract last ? Down to the ninety-ninth generation perhaps ? I'm sure the Bible will give a clue.

    I see you have run out of arguments. Cheers!

    He simply repeated the samr argument in the opposite direction.

    My argument is that if you ared thing.

    And as the flip made clear, that is a ridiculous argument, unless you subscribe to BNP-style racial determination. The current England team were born and brought up English. It makes no more sense to say their success was made possible by immigration, than saying a murder by the descendant of an immigrant was made possible by immigration. Sure, you can draw a chain of events between the two, but you could do the same by saying Glenn Hoddle's muddled Buddhism led up to this. It's a meaningless chain.

    A lot of people on here and elsewhere make the claim that murder and other crimes are caused by immigration.

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,847
    Elliot said:

    These people are idiots. They genuinely can't accept a deal where they get 90% of what they want.
    The ERG is very cogent about what is wrong with the various plans for Brexit, but has never provided an alternative that is acceptable to the Commons or the EU.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think people opposing this deal would rather hold onto their purity than get out of the EU. Disappointing.

    Gove is playing the long game - don’t make best the enemy of good - just get us out, and we can take things from there.
    Typical Tories - here we go, the lies begin. They sell out the country to the EU and the justification is always the same - party before country, we will fix it later.

    The truth that everyone can see is that the deal done now will never, ever be 'improved' - can of these Tories actually provide any scenario in which any Government will revisit this agreement? Of course not. For no other reason that May will agree that the NI backstop will come into force if we ever exit the trade agreement.

    We are leaving the EU anyway, nothing can stop that. So this idea that somehow Brexit is at risk if May doesn't sell out is an utter lie. The truth is that Gove is thinking of his own career, just like every member of the cabinet.
    It took Australia, Canada, New Zealand etc. many years to achieve full independence. Joining the EU took years, and leaving it will take years.
    How long did full Irish independence take ?

    Wasn't it only in the 1970s that they ended the link to sterling ?
    1979, I think (without checking).
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Two boys rescued

    Excellent news. But, I can't help thinking their coach should be prosecuted.
    Well he needs to be rescued himself before any decision on that is made.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Two boys rescued

    Excellent news. But, I can't help thinking their coach should be prosecuted.
    Yes - there have been reports in the Thai press that this is being considered - but has been put on ice for now until the evacuation is over. He does deserve credit for apparently keeping their morale up during a week in the dark.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,293
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think people opposing this deal would rather hold onto their purity than get out of the EU. Disappointing.

    Gove is playing the long game - don’t make best the enemy of good - just get us out, and we can take things from there.
    Typical Tories - here we go, the lies begin. They sell out the country to the EU and the justification is always the same - party before country, we will fix it later.

    The truth that everyone can see is that the deal done now will never, ever be 'improved' - can of these Tories actually provide any scenario in which any Government will revisit this agreement? Of course not. For no other reason that May will agree that the NI backstop will come into force if we ever exit the trade agreement.

    We are leaving the EU anyway, nothing can stop that. So this idea that somehow Brexit is at risk if May doesn't sell out is an utter lie. The truth is that Gove is thinking of his own career, just like every member of the cabinet.
    It took Australia, Canada, New Zealand etc. many years to achieve full independence. Joining the EU took years, and leaving it will take years.
    How long did full Irish independence take ?

    Wasn't it only in the 1970s that they ended the link to sterling ?
    1979, I think (without checking).
    "By 30th March 1979 an exchange rate was introduced"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_pound
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,293
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Two boys rescued

    Excellent news. But, I can't help thinking their coach should be prosecuted.
    Well he needs to be rescued himself before any decision on that is made.
    And the other ten boys...
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    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    Sean_F said:

    Elliot said:

    These people are idiots. They genuinely can't accept a deal where they get 90% of what they want.
    The ERG is very cogent about what is wrong with the various plans for Brexit, but has never provided an alternative that is acceptable to the Commons or the EU.
    You have missed the entire point of the referendum. It was held precisely because the Commons and the EU were not prepared to act in accordance with the views of the majority. Parliament agreed to enact the outcome of the vote and that does not require the consent of the EU. All you are proclaiming is that the referendum should be ignored.
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    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    “You have to get behind someone before you can stab them in the back.”

    Remember Boris. One rule of politics, do not trust Gove.

    Unreal. Gove is admitting that May will offer FOM (by another name) but she puts out a statement saying that she guaranteed FOM will be ending.

    The Tories have tried this trick (eg lying through their teeth) so many times on Europe that it is almost impossible to understand how they have not realised that nobody believes them. Not even their own members apparently. Same strategy as Cameron - sell out then lie and hope that you can spin a victory. And it worked so well last time.
    The most interesting stat from the new Survation is that while no alternative contender in the Tories to succeed May would make most voters more likely to vote Tory, the Tory contender likeliest to make more voters vote Tory was Rees Mogg
    That is not in the slightest a surprise to me, nor was the poll showing that 60% of Tory members thinks this deal sucks. And JRM will be back at the top of the leadership poll in a week if he plays his cards right. Gove, on the other hand, is finished after today's interview.

    The events of the last few days have been a huge boost to the prospect of JRM as PM. May will keep conceding to the EU until every red line is non-existent and there are basically no other leavers left who have not been fatally compromised. I actually think if Boris had resigned and gone rogue the Tory membership would have flocked back to him (and so would JRM and his support as JRM would not stand against him) but he didn't have the guts.

    Now over to JRM. I assume he will let the dust settle and engage in a forensic demolition of the Chequers deal and finally come out and conclude that he will vote against it. Lets see how many of the ERG follow suit. If the ERG are not as spineless as other Tories (some hope) then they can get the numbers to vote down any WA.
    I agree JRM has been boosted by being the only prominent Tory potential leadership candidate to come out against May's deal, Mogg is now the clear 'Prince across the water' for most Brexiteers
    I still doubt MPs will put him into the last two, but have just added a bit on him to just go green.
    As long as the Cabinet Leavers were in play I agree that his chances of making the last two were low. In fact I doubt he would have stood against Boris or Gove. Now, if you are a genuine Brexiteer who else are you going to support?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,123
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Two boys rescued

    Excellent news. But, I can't help thinking their coach should be prosecuted.
    If he was a good coach they could have driven out.

    I'm not getting my coat as it's too fecking hot.
    I'm sure that most pb-ers don't need an excuse to drink more, but in this heat, make sure you're drinking more than seems feasible. Or you will risk dehydration and a kidney stone.

    Renewing my acquaintance with renal colic was not exactly a highlight of the past week....
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Finally for what it's worth I actually think the Headbangers are right on this one. All Brexit has going for it is that it won the Referendum and that sonething called Brexit hasn't happened yet. The referendum result is already 2 + years old and been superceeded by a GE. Something called Brexit will happen next March. Chequers clearly sets up a sui generis UK/EU supranational structure locking us substantially into the socioeconomic eurosphere. If we are conceeding that now why will it get any better for them 3, 5, 10 years after the referendum ? Or after something called Brexit has happened and the referendum result " delivered " ?

    And of course Chequers isn't going to happen. The EU will rightly laugh it out of court. It's only an opening negotiating position to be watered down in due course. And as power flows back to parliament ( professional politicans ) as the refetendum result chronologically decays the Vassal State argument increases. Even thinking comitted leavers on my twitter are saying it openly. If we can'tleaveproperly, and we can't, it would be better to stay. Politians are vain and like being in the room whete the decisions are made.

    I actually think a certain sort of leaver is quite right strategically to try and blow Chequers up. It's now or never.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937

    Finally for what it's worth I actually think the Headbangers are right on this one. All Brexit has going for it is that it won the Referendum and that sonething called Brexit hasn't happened yet. The referendum result is already 2 + years old and been superceeded by a GE. Something called Brexit will happen next March. Chequers clearly sets up a sui generis UK/EU supranational structure locking us substantially into the socioeconomic eurosphere. If we are conceeding that now why will it get any better for them 3, 5, 10 years after the referendum ? Or after something called Brexit has happened and the referendum result " delivered " ?

    And of course Chequers isn't going to happen. The EU will rightly laugh it out of court. It's only an opening negotiating position to be watered down in due course. And as power flows back to parliament ( professional politicans ) as the refetendum result chronologically decays the Vassal State argument increases. Even thinking comitted leavers on my twitter are saying it openly. If we can'tleaveproperly, and we can't, it would be better to stay. Politians are vain and like being in the room whete the decisions are made.

    I actually think a certain sort of leaver is quite right strategically to try and blow Chequers up. It's now or never.

    The Chequers statement implicit acceptance that the UK's future prosperity is tied to its relationship with Europe is very significant, in my view. It also - if rather unrealistically - holds out the possibility of the UK becoming a member of the TPP, which is a big nod to Asia, including China, of course. What it does not do is make any mention of closer trading ties to the US. For me, this is exactly the right call.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,082

    Finally for what it's worth I actually think the Headbangers are right on this one. All Brexit has going for it is that it won the Referendum and that sonething called Brexit hasn't happened yet. The referendum result is already 2 + years old and been superceeded by a GE. Something called Brexit will happen next March. Chequers clearly sets up a sui generis UK/EU supranational structure locking us substantially into the socioeconomic eurosphere. If we are conceeding that now why will it get any better for them 3, 5, 10 years after the referendum ? Or after something called Brexit has happened and the referendum result " delivered " ?

    And of course Chequers isn't going to happen. The EU will rightly laugh it out of court. It's only an opening negotiating position to be watered down in due course. And as power flows back to parliament ( professional politicans ) as the refetendum result chronologically decays the Vassal State argument increases. Even thinking comitted leavers on my twitter are saying it openly. If we can'tleaveproperly, and we can't, it would be better to stay. Politians are vain and like being in the room whete the decisions are made.

    I actually think a certain sort of leaver is quite right strategically to try and blow Chequers up. It's now or never.

    And how many times did we hear this reasoning in the decade after leaving the ERM ?

    And when did we rejoin it and then the Euro ?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,061
    edited July 2018

    Finally for what it's worth I actually think the Headbangers are right on this one. All Brexit has going for it is that it won the Referendum and that sonething called Brexit hasn't happened yet. The referendum result is already 2 + years old and been superceeded by a GE. Something called Brexit will happen next March. Chequers clearly sets up a sui generis UK/EU supranational structure locking us substantially into the socioeconomic eurosphere. If we are conceeding that now why will it get any better for them 3, 5, 10 years after the referendum ? Or after something called Brexit has happened and the referendum result " delivered " ?

    And of course Chequers isn't going to happen. The EU will rightly laugh it out of court. It's only an opening negotiating position to be watered down in due course. And as power flows back to parliament ( professional politicans ) as the refetendum result chronologically decays the Vassal State argument increases. Even thinking comitted leavers on my twitter are saying it openly. If we can'tleaveproperly, and we can't, it would be better to stay. Politians are vain and like being in the room whete the decisions are made.

    I actually think a certain sort of leaver is quite right strategically to try and blow Chequers up. It's now or never.

    The position of the hard Brexiteers is truly dire. Given that Chequers has the endorsement of the cabinet, blowing it up and putting in a new leader wouldn't resurrect the mandate of 2016 for something harder and they'd be left with the same dilemma as May. Their only option would be to install a Hard Brexit leader and call a General Election which risks a Corbyn government with a healthy majority.
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