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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There signs are that TMay might have to face a confidence moti

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited July 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There signs are that TMay might have to face a confidence motion in the next few days

Sources confirm letters calling for vote of confidence in @theresa_may leadership going in to @Graham__Brady, chair of 1922. Tory Brexiters very unhappy – accuse PM of traducing those who voted to leave EU. This appears to be spontaneous, not coralled by ERG & @Jacob_Rees_Mogg

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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,182
    edited July 8
    I would imagine Con MP's are being besieged by many unhappy Con/Leave voting constituents this weekend... What influence that has when they get back to Westminster tomorrow remains to be seen.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,770
    @rkrkrk FPT

    Geography based pubs - no one can beat the great Perry Como

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,879
    Actually England may well have been more like 25-30 short. Been thumped by Rohit Sharma once again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283
    edited July 8
    If there is a vote of confidence the margin should be key even If May should win it. If May wins a landslide she could even lead the Tories at the next general election, if May gets 60 to 70% she should survive until at least the end of the transition period but probably not longer, if May scrapes a win with 50 to 60% of the vote she could be fatally wounded.

    In 1990 remember Thatcher technically won with 55% of Tory MPs backing her against Heseltine, in reality she lacked the mandate to go on and within a week she had resigned and John Major succeeded her as PM
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,167
    HYUFD said:

    If there is a vote of confidence the margin should be key. If May wins a landslide she could even lead the Tories at the next general election, if May gets 60 to 70% she should survive until at least the end of the transition period but probably not longer, if May scrapes a win with 50 to 60% of the vote she could be fatally wounded.

    In 1990 remember Thatcher technically won with 55% of Tory MPs backing her against Heseltine, in reality she lacked the mandate to go on and within a month she had resigned and John Major succeeded her as PM

    The rules were different then. I expect she'll hang on if she has a majority of one.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 70,038
    HYUFD said:

    If there is a vote of confidence the margin should be key. If May wins a landslide she could even lead the Tories at the next general election, if May gets 60 to 70% she should survive until at least the end of the transition period but probably not longer, if May scrapes a win with 50 to 60% of the vote she could be fatally wounded.

    In 1990 remember Thatcher technically won with 55% of Tory MPs backing her against Heseltine, in reality she lacked the mandate to go on and within a week she had resigned and John Major succeeded her as PM

    Different rules then, even though she 'won' the first round her majority wasn't large enough to stop an automatic second round.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,746
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is a vote of confidence the margin should be key. If May wins a landslide she could even lead the Tories at the next general election, if May gets 60 to 70% she should survive until at least the end of the transition period but probably not longer, if May scrapes a win with 50 to 60% of the vote she could be fatally wounded.

    In 1990 remember Thatcher technically won with 55% of Tory MPs backing her against Heseltine, in reality she lacked the mandate to go on and within a month she had resigned and John Major succeeded her as PM

    The rules were different then. I expect she'll hang on if she has a majority of one.
    I agree with that
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 70,038
    On topic, the headbanger wing of the party have been all fart and follow through in their attempts to topple David Cameron and Mrs May and it is pissing off a lot of MPs.

    I think Andrew Bridgen has criticised David Cameron more times that Jeremy Corbyn has.


  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,771
    Charles said:

    @rkrkrk FPT

    Geography based pubs - no one can beat the great Perry Como

    That is very impressive. I yield!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,691
    May loyalists would be bonkers to request a ballot on confidence in her leadership. The very fact of its occurrence would massively weaken her.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,167

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is a vote of confidence the margin should be key. If May wins a landslide she could even lead the Tories at the next general election, if May gets 60 to 70% she should survive until at least the end of the transition period but probably not longer, if May scrapes a win with 50 to 60% of the vote she could be fatally wounded.

    In 1990 remember Thatcher technically won with 55% of Tory MPs backing her against Heseltine, in reality she lacked the mandate to go on and within a month she had resigned and John Major succeeded her as PM

    The rules were different then. I expect she'll hang on if she has a majority of one.
    I agree with that
    I think that the only way that they could get her out, if say, she won 160 to 155, would be if loads of the 155 said they would no longer follow the whip.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,691
    edited July 8
    It reminds me of the Labour MPs who nominated Corbyn to "widen the debate". That worked out well for them didn't it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is a vote of confidence the margin should be key. If May wins a landslide she could even lead the Tories at the next general election, if May gets 60 to 70% she should survive until at least the end of the transition period but probably not longer, if May scrapes a win with 50 to 60% of the vote she could be fatally wounded.

    In 1990 remember Thatcher technically won with 55% of Tory MPs backing her against Heseltine, in reality she lacked the mandate to go on and within a month she had resigned and John Major succeeded her as PM

    The rules were different then. I expect she'll hang on if she has a majority of one.
    If she does key words are 'hang on' she would certainly not remain leader past December 2020 and the end of the transition period
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,886

    It reminds me of the Labour MPs who nominated Corbyn to "widen the debate". That worked out well for them didn't it?

    I was just about to make the same point.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    F1: post-race analysis here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/07/uk-post-race-analysis-2018.html

    Also, Wolff's been wibbling about Ferrari's actions being incompetence or deliberate (Bottas collision last time and today's). Utter codswallop.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283

    It reminds me of the Labour MPs who nominated Corbyn to "widen the debate". That worked out well for them didn't it?

    Yes, if May was badly wounded the momentum would be with Mogg
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 338
    edited July 8
    If May is toppled and replaced by a hardline Brexiteer then it's not hard to imagine sufficient Remainer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    If May survives then it's not hard to imagine sufficient hardline Brexiteer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    Either way it's increasingly clear that the Conservatives are going to split because there's no possible leader who can keep them all inside the tent.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,691
    We could probably broaden this to a general principle. Don't support something if you do not want that thing to happen.

    Don't nominate an individual for an election unless you want that individual to win that election.
    Don't hold a referendum proposing a change unless you want that change to happen.
    Don't support a vote of no confidence in a leader unless you have no confidence in that leader.

    It's not complicated and it would save a whole lot of trouble.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 70,038
    If there is going to be a vote of no confidence can they make sure it isn't going to happen this Wednesday. I have plans, as does most of the country.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,182

    If May is toppled and replaced by a hardline Brexiteer then it's not hard to imagine sufficient Remainer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    If May survives then it's not hard to imagine sufficient hardline Brexiteer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    Either way it's increasingly clear that the Conservatives are going to split because there's no possible leader who can keep them all inside the tent.


    Unless we have another general election. ;)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Mr. Eagles, best time to strike, then!

    Attack when your opponents fear it most.

    Hmm. Maybe I should go and flick back through my copy of Sun Zi's Art of War. It'd be interesting to also compare politics to the writings of Zhuge Liang and Liu Ji. Hmm.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,869
    edited July 8
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 70,038

    Mr. Eagles, best time to strike, then!

    Attack when your opponents fear it most.

    Hmm. Maybe I should go and flick back through my copy of Sun Zi's Art of War. It'd be interesting to also compare politics to the writings of Zhuge Liang and Liu Ji. Hmm.

    If the VONC is on Wednesday I'd expect the result around 6.45pm/7pm, just as England v Croatia begins.

    We'll all be obsessed with a semi.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 338
    GIN1138 said:

    If May is toppled and replaced by a hardline Brexiteer then it's not hard to imagine sufficient Remainer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    If May survives then it's not hard to imagine sufficient hardline Brexiteer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    Either way it's increasingly clear that the Conservatives are going to split because there's no possible leader who can keep them all inside the tent.


    Unless we have another general election. ;)
    In which case they'll get completely slaughtered anyway if they have the nerve to call yet another early GE just for narrow party interests.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,746
    edited July 8

    If there is going to be a vote of no confidence can they make sure it isn't going to happen this Wednesday. I have plans, as does most of the country.

    I think you might be disappointed. Give that we would expect the letters to follow tomorrow night's 1922 committee then Brady would receive them on the Tuesday and he would have to call the confidence election for Wednesday evening
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,512

    May loyalists would be bonkers to request a ballot on confidence in her leadership. The very fact of its occurrence would massively weaken her.

    How many May loyalists are there anyway? Will I need to take my socks off? Someone who thinks Boris is a clown, Mogg is a grotesque and that Gove can't be trusted might reluctantly conclude that May is the best of a bad bunch but that does not make them a loyalist. Nor are these people all the same. It is quite possible to think Javid or Truss would be better while Hammond or McEvoy would be worse. Are these loyalists? Surely not.

    And what would Theresa May be forced to concede as she toured the tea-rooms?

    What of the membership? Will constituency chairs be texting messages of support for May to the Bufton Tuftons? They did for Thatcher and she still had to go.

    Theresa May might do well to resign before the vote is taken. The question for her backers when counting these so-called loyalists is not how many backbenchers prefer May to Hammond -- but can she outnumber the aggregate of the separate groups who support Hunt and Boris and so on? May's position in the new system is weaker than in the old simply because there is no forced choice. She won the membership by being preferable to Leadsom. Now it's May or not-May.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283
    edited July 8

    GIN1138 said:

    If May is toppled and replaced by a hardline Brexiteer then it's not hard to imagine sufficient Remainer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    If May survives then it's not hard to imagine sufficient hardline Brexiteer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    Either way it's increasingly clear that the Conservatives are going to split because there's no possible leader who can keep them all inside the tent.


    Unless we have another general election. ;)
    In which case they'll get completely slaughtered anyway if they have the nerve to call yet another early GE just for narrow party interests.
    Even on today's Survation it would be a hung parliament, with Corbyn on around 300 seats, even less than the Tories have now. Hardly a slaughter
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,310
    GIN1138 said:

    I would imagine Con MP's are being besieged by many unhappy Con/Leave voting constituents this weekend...

    It’s not entirely a surprise that you would. Whether that is evidence for it actually happening to any extent is another matter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283

    If May is toppled and replaced by a hardline Brexiteer then it's not hard to imagine sufficient Remainer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    If May survives then it's not hard to imagine sufficient hardline Brexiteer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    Either way it's increasingly clear that the Conservatives are going to split because there's no possible leader who can keep them all inside the tent.

    If the Tories split then Labour likely follows in due course, Umunna is as far from Corbyn as Mogg is from May
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,046
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If May is toppled and replaced by a hardline Brexiteer then it's not hard to imagine sufficient Remainer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    If May survives then it's not hard to imagine sufficient hardline Brexiteer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    Either way it's increasingly clear that the Conservatives are going to split because there's no possible leader who can keep them all inside the tent.


    Unless we have another general election. ;)
    In which case they'll get completely slaughtered anyway if they have the nerve to call yet another early GE just for narrow party interests.
    Even on today's Survation it would be a hung parliament, with Corbyn on around 300 seats, even less than the Tories have now. Hardly a slaughter
    Do you think the polls would remain unchanged in the circumstances of a Tory split leading to a VONC leading to a General Election?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Mr. Eagles, I think you'll be rather sad if all the excitement is spent on merely achieving a semi.

    Mr. B, Andrea Jenkyns won't be, so she's being overtly unimpressed with the deal. On a constituency level, that's probably very good for her (in 2010, UKIP got something like 5-6,000 votes here, I think).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,310

    F1: post-race analysis here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/07/uk-post-race-analysis-2018.html

    Also, Wolff's been wibbling about Ferrari's actions being incompetence or deliberate (Bottas collision last time and today's). Utter codswallop.

    It’s hardly codswallop to call then out for lack of competence, given the stewards have handed out penalties (even if it’s not totally fair). I think Wolff is entitled to a little hyperbole in the heat of the moment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If May is toppled and replaced by a hardline Brexiteer then it's not hard to imagine sufficient Remainer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    If May survives then it's not hard to imagine sufficient hardline Brexiteer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    Either way it's increasingly clear that the Conservatives are going to split because there's no possible leader who can keep them all inside the tent.


    Unless we have another general election. ;)
    In which case they'll get completely slaughtered anyway if they have the nerve to call yet another early GE just for narrow party interests.
    Even on today's Survation it would be a hung parliament, with Corbyn on around 300 seats, even less than the Tories have now. Hardly a slaughter
    Do you think the polls would remain unchanged in the circumstances of a Tory split leading to a VONC leading to a General Election?
    Pretty much, both parties are polarised and I would not be surprised to see a Labour split shortly after too
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,088
    It would be madness to challenge May now. If it occurs I'd expect her to win big.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,310

    If there is going to be a vote of no confidence can they make sure it isn't going to happen this Wednesday. I have plans, as does most of the country.

    I think you might be disappointed. Give that we would expect the letters to follow tomorrow night's 1922 committee then Brady would receive them on the Tuesday and he would have to call the confidence election for Wednesday evening
    What if the Tories hold a rebellion and no one notices ?
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,046
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If May is toppled and replaced by a hardline Brexiteer then it's not hard to imagine sufficient Remainer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    If May survives then it's not hard to imagine sufficient hardline Brexiteer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    Either way it's increasingly clear that the Conservatives are going to split because there's no possible leader who can keep them all inside the tent.


    Unless we have another general election. ;)
    In which case they'll get completely slaughtered anyway if they have the nerve to call yet another early GE just for narrow party interests.
    Even on today's Survation it would be a hung parliament, with Corbyn on around 300 seats, even less than the Tories have now. Hardly a slaughter
    Do you think the polls would remain unchanged in the circumstances of a Tory split leading to a VONC leading to a General Election?
    Pretty much, both parties are polarised and I would not be surprised to see a Labour split shortly after too
    Why would Labour split in the face of a divided Tory party?

    And what would the Tory manifesto have to say about Brexit?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Mr. B, I don't. He's a team principal and roughly two hours had passed from the incident to the comment. Wolff's demeaned himself by indulging Hamilton's childish nonsense.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,310

    Mr. Eagles, best time to strike, then!

    Attack when your opponents fear it most.

    Hmm. Maybe I should go and flick back through my copy of Sun Zi's Art of War. It'd be interesting to also compare politics to the writings of Zhuge Liang and Liu Ji. Hmm.

    If the VONC is on Wednesday I'd expect the result around 6.45pm/7pm, just as England v Croatia begins.

    We'll all be obsessed with a semi.
    Well I was intending to get a decent Semillon to accompany the game...

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    felix said:

    It would be madness to challenge May now. If it occurs I'd expect her to win big.

    Seems the hard Brexiteers are imbued with madness. They are considering a huge act of self harm as they are powerless to alter the Parliamentary balance and looking at the real possibiliy of a general election or a peoples vote and being consigned to history
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If May is toppled and replaced by a hardline Brexiteer then it's not hard to imagine sufficient Remainer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    If May survives then it's not hard to imagine sufficient hardline Brexiteer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    Either way it's increasingly clear that the Conservatives are going to split because there's no possible leader who can keep them all inside the tent.


    Unless we have another general election. ;)
    In which case they'll get completely slaughtered anyway if they have the nerve to call yet another early GE just for narrow party interests.
    Even on today's Survation it would be a hung parliament, with Corbyn on around 300 seats, even less than the Tories have now. Hardly a slaughter
    Do you think the polls would remain unchanged in the circumstances of a Tory split leading to a VONC leading to a General Election?
    Pretty much, both parties are polarised and I would not be surprised to see a Labour split shortly after too
    Why would Labour split in the face of a divided Tory party?

    And what would the Tory manifesto have to say about Brexit?
    Indeed and what would either manifesto say on Brexit
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 338
    HYUFD said:



    Even on today's Survation it would be a hung parliament, with Corbyn on around 300 seats, even less than the Tories have now. Hardly a slaughter

    Haven't you learned anything at all from the last GE about how quickly public opinion can shift during a campaign - especially if a party does something that really upsets people? Opinion polls today mean nothing one way or the other.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,310

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is a vote of confidence the margin should be key. If May wins a landslide she could even lead the Tories at the next general election, if May gets 60 to 70% she should survive until at least the end of the transition period but probably not longer, if May scrapes a win with 50 to 60% of the vote she could be fatally wounded.

    In 1990 remember Thatcher technically won with 55% of Tory MPs backing her against Heseltine, in reality she lacked the mandate to go on and within a month she had resigned and John Major succeeded her as PM

    The rules were different then. I expect she'll hang on if she has a majority of one.
    I agree with that
    True - she has shown a capacity to absorb political humiliation beyond anything Thatcher (for example) would have ever contemplated.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,703
    If, as seems more likely to me, no challenge is forthcoming, can we then deduce that the headbangers are outgunned and defeated?
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 338
    HYUFD said:



    If the Tories split then Labour likely follows in due course, Umunna is as far from Corbyn as Mogg is from May

    Suits me... I'm a Lib Dem so I coudn't care less if Labour splits. Bring it on.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178

    If, as seems more likely to me, no challenge is forthcoming, can we then deduce that the headbangers are outgunned and defeated?

    Lets hope so
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 27,487
    I've been told off a few times on here for calling them Brexit loons, but how else to describe them?
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,046

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If May is toppled and replaced by a hardline Brexiteer then it's not hard to imagine sufficient Remainer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    If May survives then it's not hard to imagine sufficient hardline Brexiteer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    Either way it's increasingly clear that the Conservatives are going to split because there's no possible leader who can keep them all inside the tent.


    Unless we have another general election. ;)
    In which case they'll get completely slaughtered anyway if they have the nerve to call yet another early GE just for narrow party interests.
    Even on today's Survation it would be a hung parliament, with Corbyn on around 300 seats, even less than the Tories have now. Hardly a slaughter
    Do you think the polls would remain unchanged in the circumstances of a Tory split leading to a VONC leading to a General Election?
    Pretty much, both parties are polarised and I would not be surprised to see a Labour split shortly after too
    Why would Labour split in the face of a divided Tory party?

    And what would the Tory manifesto have to say about Brexit?
    Indeed and what would either manifesto say on Brexit
    Labour is already committed to staying in a customs union, and now that the Tories have decided to at least partially stay in the single market it will be very easy for Labour to plump for the softest of Brexits.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178

    I've been told off a few times on here for calling them Brexit loons, but how else to describe them?

    Living in unreality and a time long gone by
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If May is toppled and replaced by a hardline Brexiteer then it's not hard to imagine sufficient Remainer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    If May survives then it's not hard to imagine sufficient hardline Brexiteer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    Either way it's increasingly clear that the Conservatives are going to split because there's no possible leader who can keep them all inside the tent.


    Unless we have another general election. ;)
    In which case they'll get completely slaughtered anyway if they have the nerve to call yet another early GE just for narrow party interests.
    Even on today's Survation it would be a hung parliament, with Corbyn on around 300 seats, even less than the Tories have now. Hardly a slaughter
    Do you think the polls would remain unchanged in the circumstances of a Tory split leading to a VONC leading to a General Election?
    Pretty much, both parties are polarised and I would not be surprised to see a Labour split shortly after too
    Why would Labour split in the face of a divided Tory party?

    And what would the Tory manifesto have to say about Brexit?
    Oh for goodness sake are you blind? Labour is just as split between ultra Leavers like Mann and Hoey, ultra pro EEA supporters like Umunna and Creasy and Corbynite fudgers on Brexit as the Tories are. In fact even more so as while less than than 5 Tory MPs voted to stay in the EEA over 100 Labour MPs defied Corbyn to do so
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,691

    If, as seems more likely to me, no challenge is forthcoming, can we then deduce that the headbangers are outgunned and defeated?

    In the absence of a Cabinet-level resignation, and without Mogg taking up the banner himself, they are leaderless. Were a leader to emerge then the balance of power could change rapidly.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 70,038

    Mr. B, I don't. He's a team principal and roughly two hours had passed from the incident to the comment. Wolff's demeaned himself by indulging Hamilton's childish nonsense.

    Don't be silly.

    I know your grasp of history is poor but in recent times an F1 team organised a crash by their second driver to help their number one driver.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If May is toppled and replaced by a hardline Brexiteer then it's not hard to imagine sufficient Remainer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    If May survives then it's not hard to imagine sufficient hardline Brexiteer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    Either way it's increasingly clear that the Conservatives are going to split because there's no possible leader who can keep them all inside the tent.


    Unless we have another general election. ;)
    In which case they'll get completely slaughtered anyway if they have the nerve to call yet another early GE just for narrow party interests.
    Even on today's Survation it would be a hung parliament, with Corbyn on around 300 seats, even less than the Tories have now. Hardly a slaughter
    Do you think the polls would remain unchanged in the circumstances of a Tory split leading to a VONC leading to a General Election?
    Pretty much, both parties are polarised and I would not be surprised to see a Labour split shortly after too
    Why would Labour split in the face of a divided Tory party?

    And what would the Tory manifesto have to say about Brexit?
    Indeed and what would either manifesto say on Brexit
    Labour is already committed to staying in a customs union, and now that the Tories have decided to at least partially stay in the single market it will be very easy for Labour to plump for the softest of Brexits.
    But Corbyn will not go there - and that is labour's problem

    The real shame is that when Marr asked Starmer today if he could back TM policy which is very similar to labour he said no, sadly entirely for party politics, and not for the good of the Country
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,512
    Privacy matters -- running apps identify spies!
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2018/07/08/running-app-exposes-mi6-gchq-workers-whereabouts/

    If they've nothing to hide, ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283
    edited July 8

    HYUFD said:



    Even on today's Survation it would be a hung parliament, with Corbyn on around 300 seats, even less than the Tories have now. Hardly a slaughter

    Haven't you learned anything at all from the last GE about how quickly public opinion can shift during a campaign - especially if a party does something that really upsets people? Opinion polls today mean nothing one way or the other.
    Wrong. The 42% the Tories got at the end of the general election was almost exactly the same as they were polling before the general election, all that happened was any gains they made over the campaign were lost due to the dementia tax.

    Indeed Corbyn made almost no net gains from the Tories at all, almost all his gains came from the LDs, the Greens and UKIP and the SNP and those parties have been squeezed about as far as they will go
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283
    edited July 8

    felix said:

    It would be madness to challenge May now. If it occurs I'd expect her to win big.

    Seems the hard Brexiteers are imbued with madness. They are considering a huge act of self harm as they are powerless to alter the Parliamentary balance and looking at the real possibiliy of a general election or a peoples vote and being consigned to history
    On today's Survation a Mogg led Tories could certainly get at least 35 to 40% of the vote, hardly 'consigned to history'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If May is toppled and replaced by a hardline Brexiteer then it's not hard to imagine sufficient Remainer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    If May survives then it's not hard to imagine sufficient hardline Brexiteer MPs to wipe out the Con/DUP majority leaving the Conservatives.

    Either way it's increasingly clear that the Conservatives are going to split because there's no possible leader who can keep them all inside the tent.


    Unless we have another general election. ;)
    In which case they'll get completely slaughtered anyway if they have the nerve to call yet another early GE just for narrow party interests.
    Even on today's Survation it would be a hung parliament, with Corbyn on around 300 seats, even less than the Tories have now. Hardly a slaughter
    Do you think the polls would remain unchanged in the circumstances of a Tory split leading to a VONC leading to a General Election?
    Pretty much, both parties are polarised and I would not be surprised to see a Labour split shortly after too
    Why would Labour split in the face of a divided Tory party?

    And what would the Tory manifesto have to say about Brexit?
    Indeed and what would either manifesto say on Brexit
    Labour is already committed to staying in a customs union, and now that the Tories have decided to at least partially stay in the single market it will be very easy for Labour to plump for the softest of Brexits.
    While potentially sacrificing its Leave marginals, especially to a Mogg led Tories even if it gained a few more Tory Remain seats
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Mr. Eagles, you are aware that lap 1 collisions are very common? Why would Vettel take himself out of the running for the previous race victory?

    Verstappen took out Vettel in China (I think it was there). That wasn't a conspiracy, just an error of judgement. Mercedes are being ridiculous.

    Also, the team you're referring to was Renault, a decade ago. Neither the drivers nor the team principal are at Ferrari now. And Wolff/Hamilton aren't wibbling about a one-off, but two instances. I genuinely think they don't believe it and are just playing mind games, but it's still juvenile idiocy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 70,038
    Talking of people with a poor grasp of history.

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,738
    The wording of the referendum was all wrong looking back. It should have asked 'Do you want the government to invoke Article 50? Yes or No'. For too many 'Leaving the EU' doesn't mean leaving the EU even though we are, in fact, leaving the EU. The Brexit Ultras have got it into their heads that they, and only they, can peer into the souls of the plebeian hordes. This is the most dangerous kind of mysticism.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    It would be madness to challenge May now. If it occurs I'd expect her to win big.

    Seems the hard Brexiteers are imbued with madness. They are considering a huge act of self harm as they are powerless to alter the Parliamentary balance and looking at the real possibiliy of a general election or a peoples vote and being consigned to history
    On today's Survation a Mogg led Tories could certainly get at least 35 to 40% of the vote, hardly 'consigned to history'
    Brexit will be consigned to history ironically by the crass actions of the hard Brexiteers.

    Parliament will see to it and the fact they cannot see the direction of travel and back the best deal on the table they are ever likely to get, they deserve to be consigned to history
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Mr. NorthWales, do you mean we'll end up staying in?
  • XenonXenon Posts: 68
    Having not been following Brexit too closely recently, can someone summarise the current plan for me.

    Is it just concede everything to the EU and basically have to do everything that they tell us?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 70,038

    Mr. Eagles, you are aware that lap 1 collisions are very common? Why would Vettel take himself out of the running for the previous race victory?

    Verstappen took out Vettel in China (I think it was there). That wasn't a conspiracy, just an error of judgement. Mercedes are being ridiculous.

    Also, the team you're referring to was Renault, a decade ago. Neither the drivers nor the team principal are at Ferrari now. And Wolff/Hamilton aren't wibbling about a one-off, but two instances. I genuinely think they don't believe it and are just playing mind games, but it's still juvenile idiocy.

    The 2008 shenanigans nearly cost Lewis Hamilton his first title, so he has first hand experience of such villainy.

    This is about the number 2 driver taking out the chief rival of the number 1 driver.

    As far as I am aware Verstappen isn't the team mate of Vettel.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 829
    Yeah I think May wins a challenge should it come.

    Fear of a GE will be the driving factor to back her. If she wins the vote then no GE at least for another year.

    I think there is no appetite whatsoever in the Conservative Party for that, best keeping the status quo until Brexit is complete.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 70,038
    Xenon said:

    Having not been following Brexit too closely recently, can someone summarise the current plan for me.

    Is it just concede everything to the EU and basically have to do everything that they tell us?

    Turns out we can't have our cake and eat it, so Leavers like Gove say this deal honours the referendum.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283
    edited July 8

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    It would be madness to challenge May now. If it occurs I'd expect her to win big.

    Seems the hard Brexiteers are imbued with madness. They are considering a huge act of self harm as they are powerless to alter the Parliamentary balance and looking at the real possibiliy of a general election or a peoples vote and being consigned to history
    On today's Survation a Mogg led Tories could certainly get at least 35 to 40% of the vote, hardly 'consigned to history'
    Brexit will be consigned to history ironically by the crass actions of the hard Brexiteers.

    Parliament will see to it and the fact they cannot see the direction of travel and back the best deal on the table they are ever likely to get, they deserve to be consigned to history
    The same Parliament where 408 out of 650 of the MPs constituencies in the House of Commons voted Leave?

    The same Parliament which voted to invoke Article 50 and to leave the EEA by a 200 vote majority?


    The same Parliament which voted against allowing itself to take over the negotiations with the EU if the government failed to reach a deal?


    The same Parliament that voted down an amendment to stay in the Customs Union?

    I agree Parliament would likely vote for the Brexit deal if the EU accepts it but I doubt the EU will accept it in full beyond enabling the transition period
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Mr. Eagles, Vettel also isn't the team mate of Vettel. And Bottas isn't Vettel's title rival. So explain, assuming you're being serious and not just engaging in silliness, how Vettel and Bottas colliding in Austria helped Vettel's title hopes?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 8,334

    Xenon said:

    Having not been following Brexit too closely recently, can someone summarise the current plan for me.

    Is it just concede everything to the EU and basically have to do everything that they tell us?

    Turns out we can't have our cake and eat it, so Leavers like Gove say this deal honours the referendum.
    It's the "take a step back" approach, not the same as before but neither a revolution
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178

    Mr. NorthWales, do you mean we'll end up staying in?

    Only if the hard Brexiteers take over the conservative party as the Parliamentary maths will prevent their type of Brexit and the need to secure our economy will be paramount and of course by staying in the boost to the economy and investment would be immediate and huge
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    I must be off. Be nice, everyone. But not dim.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 70,038

    Mr. Eagles, Vettel also isn't the team mate of Vettel. And Bottas isn't Vettel's title rival. So explain, assuming you're being serious and not just engaging in silliness, how Vettel and Bottas colliding in Austria helped Vettel's title hopes?

    That was an accident.

    Lewis Hamilton nearly lost a world championship due to vile cheating, you can't blame him for being suspicious.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,167
    I see BMG have Con 39%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 10%, conducted 3rd to 5th July.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    Sean_F said:

    I see BMG have Con 39%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 10%, conducted 3rd to 5th July.

    I believe the Conservatives will improve their ratings if they unite behind May, as outside of the hard Brexiteers, she seems to have had a good reception and, apart from the express as you would expect, the print media generally have welcomed her Chequers agreement
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283
    Sean_F said:

    I see BMG have Con 39%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 10%, conducted 3rd to 5th July.

    Both Survation and BMG have the Tories and Labour in the 35 to 40% range then, just BMG has the Tories ahead by 2% while Survation has Labour ahead by 2% (the latter perhaps because of disaffected Tory Leavers annoyed by May's Chequers Brexit plan).

    The LDs though up to 10% from 7% at the last general election with both pollsters
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 507
    jonny83 said:

    Yeah I think May wins a challenge should it come.

    Fear of a GE will be the driving factor to back her. If she wins the vote then no GE at least for another year.

    I think there is no appetite whatsoever in the Conservative Party for that, best keeping the status quo until Brexit is complete.

    Agree , she would win, and the rebels will be neutered, so it will not happen.
    I think she would be much stronger if she wins a NC vote.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,345
    jayfdee said:

    jonny83 said:

    Yeah I think May wins a challenge should it come.

    Fear of a GE will be the driving factor to back her. If she wins the vote then no GE at least for another year.

    I think there is no appetite whatsoever in the Conservative Party for that, best keeping the status quo until Brexit is complete.

    Agree , she would win, and the rebels will be neutered, so it will not happen.
    I think she would be much stronger if she wins a NC vote.
    Step up Andrea Jenkyns? She ended Ed Balls's political career without which he would never have done Strictly. Who knows what Mrs May might have lined up post retirement.

    Or probably not! Because we keep hearing about these 48 letters going in every few weeks - but Tory MPs seem to be very slow at writing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283
    edited July 8
    Survation subsample out

    Interestingly it seems much of the Labour gain comes in Scotland with Labour ahead in Scotland on 39% with the SNP on 34% and the Tories on 21%. In England Labour are on 42% and the Tories are on 41%. In Wales the Tories are ahead on 42% to 34% (the latter seems an aberration unless Andrew RT Davies really was that unpopular).


    Leavers split Tory 53%, Labour 28%, LD 4%, Other 12% post Chequers Brexit plan, Remainers split Labour 48%, Tory 29%, LD 15%, Other 4%

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/MoS-final-tables.pdf (p11)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,512
    edited July 8
    In more important news, England has been backed into 11/8 to beat Croatia inside 90 minutes but in the outright betting, both England and Croatia have drifted slightly.
    France 2/1
    England 11/4 in a couple of places, 5/2 generally
    Belgium 11/4
    Croatia 5/1
    https://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/winner
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    HYUFD said:

    Survation subsample out

    Interestingly it seems much of the Labour gain comes in Scotland with Labour ahead in Scotland on 39% with the SNP on 34% and the Tories on 21%. In England Labour are on 42% and the Tories are on 41%. In Wales the Tories are ahead on 42% to 34% (the latter seems an aberration unless Andrew RT Davies really was that unpopular).


    Leavers split Tory 53%, Labour 28%, LD 4%, Other 12% post Chequers Brexit plan, Remainers split Labour 48%, Tory 29%, LD 15%, Other 4%

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/MoS-final-tables.pdf (p11)

    If anyone thinks labour is ahead in Scotland they need certifying
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283

    HYUFD said:

    Survation subsample out

    Interestingly it seems much of the Labour gain comes in Scotland with Labour ahead in Scotland on 39% with the SNP on 34% and the Tories on 21%. In England Labour are on 42% and the Tories are on 41%. In Wales the Tories are ahead on 42% to 34% (the latter seems an aberration unless Andrew RT Davies really was that unpopular).


    Leavers split Tory 53%, Labour 28%, LD 4%, Other 12% post Chequers Brexit plan, Remainers split Labour 48%, Tory 29%, LD 15%, Other 4%

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/MoS-final-tables.pdf (p11)

    If anyone thinks labour is ahead in Scotland they need certifying
    We will see but Corbyn did gain seats in Scotland at the last general election, especially in the Central belt
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,452
    edited July 8
    The 1992 confidence rules favour May. If she wins a simple majority she is technically safe for a year. If they are to challenge her they have to be sure to finish her.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    edited July 8
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Survation subsample out

    Interestingly it seems much of the Labour gain comes in Scotland with Labour ahead in Scotland on 39% with the SNP on 34% and the Tories on 21%. In England Labour are on 42% and the Tories are on 41%. In Wales the Tories are ahead on 42% to 34% (the latter seems an aberration unless Andrew RT Davies really was that unpopular).


    Leavers split Tory 53%, Labour 28%, LD 4%, Other 12% post Chequers Brexit plan, Remainers split Labour 48%, Tory 29%, LD 15%, Other 4%

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/MoS-final-tables.pdf (p11)

    If anyone thinks labour is ahead in Scotland they need certifying
    We will see but Corbyn did gain seats in Scotland at the last general election, especially in the Central belt
    I think I know Scotland and its politics quite well having lived there and have my wife's family there and no way are labour ahead of the SNP and I doubt they are ahead of Ruth.

    And as for Wales it just confirms the stupidity of these subsets. Those figures are for the birds
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,452

    If there is going to be a vote of no confidence can they make sure it isn't going to happen this Wednesday. I have plans, as does most of the country.

    I think you might be disappointed. Give that we would expect the letters to follow tomorrow night's 1922 committee then Brady would receive them on the Tuesday and he would have to call the confidence election for Wednesday evening
    May has a say on the vote timing.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Xenon said:

    Having not been following Brexit too closely recently, can someone summarise the current plan for me.

    Is it just concede everything to the EU and basically have to do everything that they tell us?

    Freedom of movement? Ended.
    Common Agricultural Policy? Exited.
    Common Fisheries Policy? Exited.
    European Court of Justice writ? Exited.
    Common External Tariff? Exited.
    EU regulation? Exited for services (85% of the economy, traded globally), maintained for goods (15% of the economy, mainly traded regionally).

    For smart Brexiteers (Gove, Raab etc) this is a great deal. For stupid Brexiteers (Boris, Nigel) it is worse than EU membership.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 575
    edited July 8
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is a vote of confidence the margin should be key. If May wins a landslide she could even lead the Tories at the next general election, if May gets 60 to 70% she should survive until at least the end of the transition period but probably not longer, if May scrapes a win with 50 to 60% of the vote she could be fatally wounded.

    In 1990 remember Thatcher technically won with 55% of Tory MPs backing her against Heseltine, in reality she lacked the mandate to go on and within a month she had resigned and John Major succeeded her as PM

    The rules were different then. I expect she'll hang on if she has a majority of one.
    I agree with that
    I think that the only way that they could get her out, if say, she won 160 to 155, would be if loads of the 155 said they would no longer follow the whip.
    An organised push to remove her should surely include a deal with the DUP.

    As soon as the NoConfidence vote is announced Dodds&Foster simply announce they too have no confidence in a May led tory gov.. and May is gone (unless she has 155 MPs willing to risk an immediate Corbyn gov.)

    The DUP then effectively get to select the next PM from her potential replacements - perfect.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Survation subsample out

    Interestingly it seems much of the Labour gain comes in Scotland with Labour ahead in Scotland on 39% with the SNP on 34% and the Tories on 21%. In England Labour are on 42% and the Tories are on 41%. In Wales the Tories are ahead on 42% to 34% (the latter seems an aberration unless Andrew RT Davies really was that unpopular).


    Leavers split Tory 53%, Labour 28%, LD 4%, Other 12% post Chequers Brexit plan, Remainers split Labour 48%, Tory 29%, LD 15%, Other 4%

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/MoS-final-tables.pdf (p11)

    If anyone thinks labour is ahead in Scotland they need certifying
    We will see but Corbyn did gain seats in Scotland at the last general election, especially in the Central belt
    I think I know Scotland and its politics quite well having lived there and have my wife's family there and no way are labour ahead of the SNP and I doubt they are ahead of Ruth.

    And as for Wales it just confirms the stupidity of these subsets. Those figures are for the birds
    I agree on Wales. On Scotland though we need more evidence but after 11 years of an SNP executive at Holyrood and 8 years of a Tory government at Westminster I would not be too surprised to see Labour up a bit north of the border
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,452
    shiney2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is a vote of confidence the margin should be key. If May wins a landslide she could even lead the Tories at the next general election, if May gets 60 to 70% she should survive until at least the end of the transition period but probably not longer, if May scrapes a win with 50 to 60% of the vote she could be fatally wounded.

    In 1990 remember Thatcher technically won with 55% of Tory MPs backing her against Heseltine, in reality she lacked the mandate to go on and within a month she had resigned and John Major succeeded her as PM

    The rules were different then. I expect she'll hang on if she has a majority of one.
    I agree with that
    I think that the only way that they could get her out, if say, she won 160 to 155, would be if loads of the 155 said they would no longer follow the whip.
    An organised push to remove her should surely include a deal with the DUP.

    As soon as the NoConfidence vote is announced Dodds&Foster simply announce they too have no confidence in a May led tory gov.. and May is gone (unless she has 155 MPs willing to risk an immediate Corbyn gov.)

    The DUP then effectively get to select the next PM from her replacement - perfect.
    She calls a vote of no confidence and wins. When is parliament dissolved? She can't have long to hold out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 70,038
    Jonathan said:

    If there is going to be a vote of no confidence can they make sure it isn't going to happen this Wednesday. I have plans, as does most of the country.

    I think you might be disappointed. Give that we would expect the letters to follow tomorrow night's 1922 committee then Brady would receive them on the Tuesday and he would have to call the confidence election for Wednesday evening
    May has a say on the vote timing.
    It'll be the next working day during a Parliamentary session.

    In 2003 on the Tuesday Michael Spicer received sufficient letters to trigger a VONC and the vote was scheduled for the next day.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    shiney2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is a vote of confidence the margin should be key. If May wins a landslide she could even lead the Tories at the next general election, if May gets 60 to 70% she should survive until at least the end of the transition period but probably not longer, if May scrapes a win with 50 to 60% of the vote she could be fatally wounded.

    In 1990 remember Thatcher technically won with 55% of Tory MPs backing her against Heseltine, in reality she lacked the mandate to go on and within a month she had resigned and John Major succeeded her as PM

    The rules were different then. I expect she'll hang on if she has a majority of one.
    I agree with that
    I think that the only way that they could get her out, if say, she won 160 to 155, would be if loads of the 155 said they would no longer follow the whip.
    An organised push to remove her should surely include a deal with the DUP.

    As soon as the NoConfidence vote is announced Dodds&Foster simply announce they too have no confidence in a May led tory gov.. and May is gone (unless she has 155 MPs willing to risk an immediate Corbyn gov.)

    The DUP then effectively get to select the next PM from her potential replacements - perfect.
    It does not work that way
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 70,038
    On the flip side if Mrs May does lose the VONC it means I'll have to do a thread on AV, given that the Tories used a form of quasi-AV to elect their leaders.

    I mean there's rounds of voting where the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated until there are two left and the winner is the one with over 50% of the vote.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Survation subsample out

    Interestingly it seems much of the Labour gain comes in Scotland with Labour ahead in Scotland on 39% with the SNP on 34% and the Tories on 21%. In England Labour are on 42% and the Tories are on 41%. In Wales the Tories are ahead on 42% to 34% (the latter seems an aberration unless Andrew RT Davies really was that unpopular).


    Leavers split Tory 53%, Labour 28%, LD 4%, Other 12% post Chequers Brexit plan, Remainers split Labour 48%, Tory 29%, LD 15%, Other 4%

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/MoS-final-tables.pdf (p11)

    If anyone thinks labour is ahead in Scotland they need certifying
    We will see but Corbyn did gain seats in Scotland at the last general election, especially in the Central belt
    I think I know Scotland and its politics quite well having lived there and have my wife's family there and no way are labour ahead of the SNP and I doubt they are ahead of Ruth.

    And as for Wales it just confirms the stupidity of these subsets. Those figures are for the birds
    I agree on Wales. On Scotland though we need more evidence but after 11 years of an SNP executive at Holyrood and 8 years of a Tory government at Westminster I would not be too surprised to see Labour up a bit north of the border
    We do not need any more evidence in Scotland. Labour are not going to make inroads on the SNP
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 575
    edited July 8

    shiney2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is a vote of confidence the margin should be key. If May wins a landslide she could even lead the Tories at the next general election, if May gets 60 to 70% she should survive until at least the end of the transition period but probably not longer, if May scrapes a win with 50 to 60% of the vote she could be fatally wounded.

    In 1990 remember Thatcher technically won with 55% of Tory MPs backing her against Heseltine, in reality she lacked the mandate to go on and within a month she had resigned and John Major succeeded her as PM

    The rules were different then. I expect she'll hang on if she has a majority of one.
    I agree with that
    I think that the only way that they could get her out, if say, she won 160 to 155, would be if loads of the 155 said they would no longer follow the whip.
    An organised push to remove her should surely include a deal with the DUP.

    As soon as the NoConfidence vote is announced Dodds&Foster simply announce they too have no confidence in a May led tory gov.. and May is gone (unless she has 155 MPs willing to risk an immediate Corbyn gov.)

    The DUP then effectively get to select the next PM from her potential replacements - perfect.
    It does not work that way
    Bit of a limp response.
    No DUP = No Majority : resolve that.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Survation subsample out

    Interestingly it seems much of the Labour gain comes in Scotland with Labour ahead in Scotland on 39% with the SNP on 34% and the Tories on 21%. In England Labour are on 42% and the Tories are on 41%. In Wales the Tories are ahead on 42% to 34% (the latter seems an aberration unless Andrew RT Davies really was that unpopular).


    Leavers split Tory 53%, Labour 28%, LD 4%, Other 12% post Chequers Brexit plan, Remainers split Labour 48%, Tory 29%, LD 15%, Other 4%

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/MoS-final-tables.pdf (p11)

    If anyone thinks labour is ahead in Scotland they need certifying
    We will see but Corbyn did gain seats in Scotland at the last general election, especially in the Central belt
    I think I know Scotland and its politics quite well having lived there and have my wife's family there and no way are labour ahead of the SNP and I doubt they are ahead of Ruth.

    And as for Wales it just confirms the stupidity of these subsets. Those figures are for the birds
    I agree on Wales. On Scotland though we need more evidence but after 11 years of an SNP executive at Holyrood and 8 years of a Tory government at Westminster I would not be too surprised to see Labour up a bit north of the border
    We do not need any more evidence in Scotland. Labour are not going to make inroads on the SNP
    Well we have evidence Labour gained 6 seats from the SNP at the last general election, whether they have made any further inroads we need further polling to support
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    shiney2 said:

    shiney2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is a vote of confidence the margin should be key. If May wins a landslide she could even lead the Tories at the next general election, if May gets 60 to 70% she should survive until at least the end of the transition period but probably not longer, if May scrapes a win with 50 to 60% of the vote she could be fatally wounded.

    In 1990 remember Thatcher technically won with 55% of Tory MPs backing her against Heseltine, in reality she lacked the mandate to go on and within a month she had resigned and John Major succeeded her as PM

    The rules were different then. I expect she'll hang on if she has a majority of one.
    I agree with that
    I think that the only way that they could get her out, if say, she won 160 to 155, would be if loads of the 155 said they would no longer follow the whip.
    An organised push to remove her should surely include a deal with the DUP.

    As soon as the NoConfidence vote is announced Dodds&Foster simply announce they too have no confidence in a May led tory gov.. and May is gone (unless she has 155 MPs willing to risk an immediate Corbyn gov.)

    The DUP then effectively get to select the next PM from her potential replacements - perfect.
    It does not work that way
    Bit of a limp response.
    No DUP = No Majority : resolve that.


    The Chequers deal prevents any border between Norn Iron, Ireland or GB. Why would they oppose her? They are more to blame for the "sell out" than May is.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    shiney2 said:

    shiney2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is a vote of confidence the margin should be key. If May wins a landslide she could even lead the Tories at the next general election, if May gets 60 to 70% she should survive until at least the end of the transition period but probably not longer, if May scrapes a win with 50 to 60% of the vote she could be fatally wounded.

    In 1990 remember Thatcher technically won with 55% of Tory MPs backing her against Heseltine, in reality she lacked the mandate to go on and within a month she had resigned and John Major succeeded her as PM

    The rules were different then. I expect she'll hang on if she has a majority of one.
    I agree with that
    I think that the only way that they could get her out, if say, she won 160 to 155, would be if loads of the 155 said they would no longer follow the whip.
    An organised push to remove her should surely include a deal with the DUP.

    As soon as the NoConfidence vote is announced Dodds&Foster simply announce they too have no confidence in a May led tory gov.. and May is gone (unless she has 155 MPs willing to risk an immediate Corbyn gov.)

    The DUP then effectively get to select the next PM from her potential replacements - perfect.
    It does not work that way
    Bit of a limp response.
    No DUP = No Majority : resolve that.


    The DUP do not elect the leader. The MP's and members do. Nothing to do with majorities
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 575

    shiney2 said:

    shiney2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is a vote of confidence the margin should be key. If May wins a landslide she could even lead the Tories at the next general election, if May gets 60 to 70% she should survive until at least the end of the transition period but probably not longer, if May scrapes a win with 50 to 60% of the vote she could be fatally wounded.

    In 1990 remember Thatcher technically won with 55% of Tory MPs backing her against Heseltine, in reality she lacked the mandate to go on and within a month she had resigned and John Major succeeded her as PM

    The rules were different then. I expect she'll hang on if she has a majority of one.
    I agree with that
    I think that the only way that they could get her out, if say, she won 160 to 155, would be if loads of the 155 said they would no longer follow the whip.
    An organised push to remove her should surely include a deal with the DUP.

    As soon as the NoConfidence vote is announced Dodds&Foster simply announce they too have no confidence in a May led tory gov.. and May is gone (unless she has 155 MPs willing to risk an immediate Corbyn gov.)

    The DUP then effectively get to select the next PM from her potential replacements - perfect.
    It does not work that way
    Bit of a limp response.
    No DUP = No Majority : resolve that.


    The DUP do not elect the leader. The MP's and members do. Nothing to do with majorities
    So how many of your 'electorate' are going to vote for a candidate that cannot command a majority in the HoC? The stupid party would need to excel itself to do that.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Survation subsample out

    Interestingly it seems much of the Labour gain comes in Scotland with Labour ahead in Scotland on 39% with the SNP on 34% and the Tories on 21%. In England Labour are on 42% and the Tories are on 41%. In Wales the Tories are ahead on 42% to 34% (the latter seems an aberration unless Andrew RT Davies really was that unpopular).


    Leavers split Tory 53%, Labour 28%, LD 4%, Other 12% post Chequers Brexit plan, Remainers split Labour 48%, Tory 29%, LD 15%, Other 4%

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/MoS-final-tables.pdf (p11)

    If anyone thinks labour is ahead in Scotland they need certifying
    We will see but Corbyn did gain seats in Scotland at the last general election, especially in the Central belt
    I think I know Scotland and its politics quite well having lived there and have my wife's family there and no way are labour ahead of the SNP and I doubt they are ahead of Ruth.

    And as for Wales it just confirms the stupidity of these subsets. Those figures are for the birds
    I agree on Wales. On Scotland though we need more evidence but after 11 years of an SNP executive at Holyrood and 8 years of a Tory government at Westminster I would not be too surprised to see Labour up a bit north of the border
    We do not need any more evidence in Scotland. Labour are not going to make inroads on the SNP
    Well we have evidence Labour gained 6 seats from the SNP at the last general election, whether they have made any further inroads we need further polling to support
    Not really.
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