From my perspective as a relatively ambivalent Labour remainer, I actually think the May proposal is a pretty sensible compromise.
3 points I would make:
1. May can go to the Europeans now and effectively say 'Look this is a good deal for you, it's such a good deal 2 of my most senior cabinet ministers have resigned because of it. Don't push your look and ask for anymore'.
2. With Boris and DD gone, she can probably get away with extending the UK's membership of the customs union for a couple of years, until the technology is ready for the FCA implementation.
3. Both of the 2 above points are only possible IF Labour comes out in support of the deal. Which they should do. Not only because it's the right thing to do for the country (and is actually pretty close to what Labour wants), but it'd be smart politically as a deal passed on Labour votes would drive the Brexiteers totally bonkers and split the Tories in two.
Lets see if the Labour leadership can play chess and not checkers and realise this. I'm not sure they will sadly...
Personally speaking the Customs Union has never particularly bothered me.
Especially as I suspect negotiating trade deals would mean our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert' diplomats posturing about the world at detrimental cost to the rest of us.
Both of the 2 above points are only possible IF Labour comes out in support of the deal. Which they should do. Not only because it's the right thing to do for the country (and is actually pretty close to what Labour wants), but it'd be smart politically as a deal passed on Labour votes would drive the Brexiteers totally bonkers and split the Tories in two.
Lets see if the Labour leadership can play chess and not checkers and realise this. I'm not sure they will sadly...
If Labour can play chess, they will realise that doing this leaves them vulnerable to May's checkmate move of calling a second referendum on the deal.
On a side note, May actually looks visibly a lot less uptight today. Like the weight has been lifted off her shoulders now she's actually made a decision. just seen her with Merkel on the evening news, and she sounded like a different woman.
On a side note, May actually looks visibly a lot less uptight today. Like the weight has been lifted off her shoulders now she's actually made a decision. just seen her with Merkel on the evening news, and she sounded like a different woman.
Basically, the Brexit deal we will be offered is whatever the EU feel they can get through the UK parliament. Further watering down may cause some Tories to vote against, but it could also get elements of Labour onside.
What do we all think Corbyn might do if he's got a chance of both a hard brexit and stuffing the Tories ?
Does it really matter might be the question. We’ve seen that Labour MPs ignore the whipping operation and do what the heck they feel like on the issue anyway.
So if things go wrong voters will turn against Theresa May's BINO - It remains to be seen whether that means they go back to REJOIN or move more towards Brexit Means Brexit.
Apart from not getting a polling card for the European elections will the vast majority of voters even notice the difference between leaving the EU under May's final - no doubt further watered down - deal and remaining? What practical difference will it make to their daily lives - particularly if FOM stays in all but name.
On trade, yes, the Euro is a German racket and its trade surplus distorts the whole Eurozone but as well as seeing trade as a zero-sum game rather than being mutually beneficial, Trump has also convinced himself that VAT amounts to a tariff against American goods.
On trade, yes it can be mutually beneficial, but only if trade surpluses and deficits are relatively modest in relation to the overall volume of trade. That condition has not been met. The US has large trade deficits with the EU, and so does the UK with the rest of the EU.
Trade balances should be like sine curves, sometimes in surplus and sometimes in deficit.
Providing a natural economic stability both to economies internally and between different countries.
On a side note, May actually looks visibly a lot less uptight today. Like the weight has been lifted off her shoulders now she's actually made a decision. just seen her with Merkel on the evening news, and she sounded like a different woman.
As Simon Wren-Lewis wrote today:
A characteristic of many endgames in chess where the result is clear is that pieces leave the board quickly to make the eventual win obvious. What we have seen with the resignations of some (Davis, Baker and Johnson at the time of writing) is but the first stage in that process.
Barring something completely unexpected, May has won.
On a side note, May actually looks visibly a lot less uptight today. Like the weight has been lifted off her shoulders now she's actually made a decision. just seen her with Merkel on the evening news, and she sounded like a different woman.
So if things go wrong voters will turn against Theresa May's BINO - It remains to be seen whether that means they go back to REJOIN or move more towards Brexit Means Brexit.
Apart from not getting a polling card for the European elections will the vast majority of voters even notice the difference between leaving the EU under May's final - no doubt further watered down - deal and remaining? What practical difference will it make to their daily lives - particularly if FOM stays in all but name.
Of course they will notice. The British public are not stupid. They voted to leave. If we are left with BINO they will spot that and think that they did not get what they voted for. Hell hath no fury like a voter scorned. If they took the trouble to walk to the polling station, saw that their vote 'won' and then didn't get what they voted for, heaven help the people who stopped it. They won't go after the Brexiteers because they were not in the driving seat - Theresa May was. I genuinely believe that there will be a backlash the like of which we have not seen in UK politics in modern times.
On a side note, May actually looks visibly a lot less uptight today. Like the weight has been lifted off her shoulders now she's actually made a decision. just seen her with Merkel on the evening news, and she sounded like a different woman.
As Simon Wren-Lewis wrote today:
A characteristic of many endgames in chess where the result is clear is that pieces leave the board quickly to make the eventual win obvious. What we have seen with the resignations of some (Davis, Baker and Johnson at the time of writing) is but the first stage in that process.
Barring something completely unexpected, May has won.
You are probably right. But since 23 June 2016 we have come to expect the completely unexpected!
Things can move quickly back and forth in the space of a few days as we saw this weekend. Other events can affect things too beyond Brexit.
Every time I see her mentioned, all I can think of is her appearance on Question Time a few years ago trying to defend the logic of the death penalty, by basically saying miscarriages of justice were impossible...in the words of Trump 'very low IQ'
Yes, me too. A milestone of utter imbecility that remains lodged in the mind of anyone who saw it.
On a side note, May actually looks visibly a lot less uptight today. Like the weight has been lifted off her shoulders now she's actually made a decision. just seen her with Merkel on the evening news, and she sounded like a different woman.
As Simon Wren-Lewis wrote today:
A characteristic of many endgames in chess where the result is clear is that pieces leave the board quickly to make the eventual win obvious. What we have seen with the resignations of some (Davis, Baker and Johnson at the time of writing) is but the first stage in that process.
Barring something completely unexpected, May has won.
It’s hard to imagine the ERG standing by and watching as she delivers some form of BINO. Surely in the end there would be a confidence vote (they clearly have the numbers for that)? While they probably lack numbers to win that vote, once it’s called it takes on a life of its own and if a couple of candidates can get 75 committed backers each, who will vote against May in order to get their candidate in, you can see her losing it. It would be very courageous for her to gamble that that wouldn’t happen. At that stage, it’s hard to see where it ends up (with a “stop-ERG” candidate like Hunt?)
On a side note, May actually looks visibly a lot less uptight today. Like the weight has been lifted off her shoulders now she's actually made a decision. just seen her with Merkel on the evening news, and she sounded like a different woman.
As Simon Wren-Lewis wrote today:
A characteristic of many endgames in chess where the result is clear is that pieces leave the board quickly to make the eventual win obvious. What we have seen with the resignations of some (Davis, Baker and Johnson at the time of writing) is but the first stage in that process.
Barring something completely unexpected, May has won.
It’s hard to imagine the ERG standing by and watching as she delivers some form of BINO. Surely in the end there would be a confidence vote (they clearly have the numbers for that)? While they probably lack numbers to win that vote, once it’s called it takes on a life of its own and if a couple of candidates can get 75 committed backers each, who will vote against May in order to get their candidate in, you can see her losing it. It would be very courageous for her to gamble that that wouldn’t happen. At that stage, it’s hard to see where it ends up (with a “stop-ERG” candidate like Hunt?)
Until the ERG can put up a credible alternative plan that doesn't involve trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules, it doesn't matter which candidate they can find. To be honest I don't think any of them want the responsibility of having to deal with it; they just want to use fear and dread to manipulate others.
Every time I see her mentioned, all I can think of is her appearance on Question Time a few years ago trying to defend the logic of the death penalty, by basically saying miscarriages of justice were impossible...in the words of Trump 'very low IQ'
To be fair what she said was that while currently miscarriages of were possible if we had the death penalty they would become impossible. Becasue. They just would OK.
From my perspective as a relatively ambivalent Labour remainer, I actually think the May proposal is a pretty sensible compromise.
3 points I would make:
1. May can go to the Europeans now and effectively say 'Look this is a good deal for you, it's such a good deal 2 of my most senior cabinet ministers have resigned because of it. Don't push your look and ask for anymore'.
2. With Boris and DD gone, she can probably get away with extending the UK's membership of the customs union for a couple of years, until the technology is ready for the FCA implementation.
3. Both of the 2 above points are only possible IF Labour comes out in support of the deal. Which they should do. Not only because it's the right thing to do for the country (and is actually pretty close to what Labour wants), but it'd be smart politically as a deal passed on Labour votes would drive the Brexiteers totally bonkers and split the Tories in two.
Lets see if the Labour leadership can play chess and not checkers and realise this. I'm not sure they will sadly...
Personally speaking the Customs Union has never particularly bothered me.
Especially as I suspect negotiating trade deals would mean our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert' diplomats posturing about the world at detrimental cost to the rest of us.
To give an example I fear negotiating new trade deals might end up as much a disaster as George Osborne's attempt at being the 'big businessman' in the Hinkley C deal with the Chinese.
On a side note, May actually looks visibly a lot less uptight today. Like the weight has been lifted off her shoulders now she's actually made a decision. just seen her with Merkel on the evening news, and she sounded like a different woman.
As Simon Wren-Lewis wrote today:
A characteristic of many endgames in chess where the result is clear is that pieces leave the board quickly to make the eventual win obvious. What we have seen with the resignations of some (Davis, Baker and Johnson at the time of writing) is but the first stage in that process.
Barring something completely unexpected, May has won.
It’s hard to imagine the ERG standing by and watching as she delivers some form of BINO. Surely in the end there would be a confidence vote (they clearly have the numbers for that)? While they probably lack numbers to win that vote, once it’s called it takes on a life of its own and if a couple of candidates can get 75 committed backers each, who will vote against May in order to get their candidate in, you can see her losing it. It would be very courageous for her to gamble that that wouldn’t happen. At that stage, it’s hard to see where it ends up (with a “stop-ERG” candidate like Hunt?)
Until the ERG can put up a credible alternative plan that doesn't involve trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules, it doesn't matter which candidate they can find. To be honest I don't think any of them want the responsibility of having to deal with it; they just want to use fear and dread to manipulate others.
I don’t disagree with any of that - they want leave to work (in a non-BINO way) and they have been clear it’s the responsibility of remainers to find a way to make that happen. But I don’t think that strategic vacuity would stop them bringing down May in the hope of finding another remainder-turned-Brexiter-honest who they could anoint and then hold hostage.
Until the ERG can put up a credible alternative plan that doesn't involve trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules, it doesn't matter which candidate they can find.
May's "agreement" is essentially "trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules".
Every time I see her mentioned, all I can think of is her appearance on Question Time a few years ago trying to defend the logic of the death penalty, by basically saying miscarriages of justice were impossible...in the words of Trump 'very low IQ'
To be fair what she said was that while currently miscarriages of were possible if we had the death penalty they would become impossible. Becasue. They just would OK.
The British government already employs the death penalty.
By drone in other countries without a trial and with any other casualties deemed collateral damage.
Now I doubt many people will shed tears for the people it is carried out upon but the death penalty is now in use.
Until the ERG can put up a credible alternative plan that doesn't involve trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules, it doesn't matter which candidate they can find.
May's "agreement" is essentially "trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules".
Let's hope it works then, though I'm not hugely hopeful.
Well after all the intensity of the last few days it is time for me to say goodnight to everyone and wish a pleasant nights rest before we watch 90 minutes or more of amazing football tomorrow night.
All the best England , Gareth and the young team ( apart from Ashley Young who is not so young)
Until the ERG can put up a credible alternative plan that doesn't involve trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules, it doesn't matter which candidate they can find.
May's "agreement" is essentially "trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules".
Let's hope it works then, though I'm not hugely hopeful.
Neither am I.
Look at what Katya Adler wrote yesterday:
Here's the blackmail:
Now, Downing Street believes that the hot water the prime minister is in today will shock EU leaders into realising they need to start compromising themselves - not just perpetually demanding capitulations on the UK's red lines.
And here's the response:
"On the one hand, it's true what Downing Street says," one EU source told me. "The UK is bigger than Norway and strategically, politically and economically more important to us than Switzerland, yes. But EU countries benefit more from keeping their club - the single market and customs union - intact, than they would do by compromising everything just for the sake of better bilateral relations with the UK after Brexit. You can forget it."
As I keep saying where is the slightest evidence that the EU will compromise on the four freedoms? I'm not being awkward here, I've seen none.
The question is really whether there is a way to fudge it so that this doesn't blow up the negotiations before March. I think the EU will try to accommodate May on this.
As I keep saying where is the slightest evidence that the EU will compromise on the four freedoms? I'm not being awkward here, I've seen none.
The question is really whether there is a way to fudge it so that this doesn't blow up the negotiations before March. I think the EU will try to accommodate May on this.
The four freedoms are at various levels of harmonisation, the difference is already there
Are other people getting rain ? Because the forecast has just mentioned that the Isle of Man will be getting its first in 3 weeks whereas I can't remember it raining here since the start of May.
Well after all the intensity of the last few days it is time for me to say goodnight to everyone and wish a pleasant nights rest before we watch 90 minutes or more of amazing football tomorrow night.
All the best England , Gareth and the young team ( apart from Ashley Young who is not so young)
But not so young Young is a Red Devil. He should play with young Rashford. The goal misser from Man C should be dropped.
I will be on a plane out of Istanbul just before the match starts. I will only know the result if it is announced in the plane.
Until the ERG can put up a credible alternative plan that doesn't involve trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules, it doesn't matter which candidate they can find.
May's "agreement" is essentially "trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules".
williamglenn, the ultimate appeaser. The EU tries to blackmail the UK over its ridiculous NI backstop and you think if we refuse then we are blackmailing the EU. You are a joke.
CETA Plus with Maxfac does not cross any EU redlines nor does it in any way require the EU to change their rules. On the other hand, as glw correctly points out, May's plan requires them to re-write their entire rulebook.
That is why the only deals that could ever be done with the EU are surrender (EEA+CU) or CETA. Or No Deal, which is what you will get as a result of the Remainers running the show.
On a side note, May actually looks visibly a lot less uptight today. Like the weight has been lifted off her shoulders now she's actually made a decision. just seen her with Merkel on the evening news, and she sounded like a different woman.
As Simon Wren-Lewis wrote today:
A characteristic of many endgames in chess where the result is clear is that pieces leave the board quickly to make the eventual win obvious. What we have seen with the resignations of some (Davis, Baker and Johnson at the time of writing) is but the first stage in that process.
Barring something completely unexpected, May has won.
It’s hard to imagine the ERG standing by and watching as she delivers some form of BINO. Surely in the end there would be a confidence vote (they clearly have the numbers for that)? While they probably lack numbers to win that vote, once it’s called it takes on a life of its own and if a couple of candidates can get 75 committed backers each, who will vote against May in order to get their candidate in, you can see her losing it. It would be very courageous for her to gamble that that wouldn’t happen. At that stage, it’s hard to see where it ends up (with a “stop-ERG” candidate like Hunt?)
Until the ERG can put up a credible alternative plan that doesn't involve trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules, it doesn't matter which candidate they can find. To be honest I don't think any of them want the responsibility of having to deal with it; they just want to use fear and dread to manipulate others.
To be honest, Ergh make me laugh. The idea that anyone would be scared by the ludicrous Jacob Rees is faintly comic. He is the kid at school who cried when his brass buttons got muddy.
Until the ERG can put up a credible alternative plan that doesn't involve trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules, it doesn't matter which candidate they can find.
May's "agreement" is essentially "trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules".
williamglenn, the ultimate appeaser. The EU tries to blackmail the UK over its ridiculous NI backstop and you think if we refuse then we are blackmailing the EU. You are a joke.
CETA Plus with Maxfac does not cross any EU redlines nor does it in any way require the EU to change their rules. On the other hand, as glw correctly points out, May's plan requires them to re-write their entire rulebook.
That is why the only deals that could ever be done with the EU are surrender (EEA+CU) or CETA. Or No Deal, which is what you will get as a result of the Remainers running the show.
Archer, banging his British Bulldog from his home desk in Australia.
Until the ERG can put up a credible alternative plan that doesn't involve trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules, it doesn't matter which candidate they can find.
May's "agreement" is essentially "trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules".
williamglenn, the ultimate appeaser. The EU tries to blackmail the UK over its ridiculous NI backstop and you think if we refuse then we are blackmailing the EU. You are a joke.
CETA Plus with Maxfac does not cross any EU redlines nor does it in any way require the EU to change their rules. On the other hand, as glw correctly points out, May's plan requires them to re-write their entire rulebook.
That is why the only deals that could ever be done with the EU are surrender (EEA+CU) or CETA. Or No Deal, which is what you will get as a result of the Remainers running the show.
Why is it a blackmail ? The EU has always maintained the four pillars are indivisable. It is the Brexit UK people who had deluded themselves that "we are so important" that they will have "no choice" but give the UK access to the Internal Market without FoM. Oh, I forgot the silly trade deficit !
Until the ERG can put up a credible alternative plan that doesn't involve trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules, it doesn't matter which candidate they can find.
May's "agreement" is essentially "trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules".
Let's hope it works then, though I'm not hugely hopeful.
Neither am I.
Look at what Katya Adler wrote yesterday:
Here's the blackmail:
Now, Downing Street believes that the hot water the prime minister is in today will shock EU leaders into realising they need to start compromising themselves - not just perpetually demanding capitulations on the UK's red lines.
And here's the response:
"On the one hand, it's true what Downing Street says," one EU source told me. "The UK is bigger than Norway and strategically, politically and economically more important to us than Switzerland, yes. But EU countries benefit more from keeping their club - the single market and customs union - intact, than they would do by compromising everything just for the sake of better bilateral relations with the UK after Brexit. You can forget it."
As I keep saying where is the slightest evidence that the EU will compromise on the four freedoms? I'm not being awkward here, I've seen none.
That they see seemingly any concession as giving up everything hardly helps. Even William seems to think the EU will try a fudge to accommodate may, but i don't see it.
Every time I see her mentioned, all I can think of is her appearance on Question Time a few years ago trying to defend the logic of the death penalty, by basically saying miscarriages of justice were impossible...in the words of Trump 'very low IQ'
Yes, me too. A milestone of utter imbecility that remains lodged in the mind of anyone who saw it.
Well food rationing will give the Brexiteers a taste of the WW2 spirit they are so nostalgic for
As long as Mrs May has had her chips the rest of us can surely afford to eat less. Brexit may do wonders for our obesity problem - it might even save the NHS £350m a week in treating associated illnesses like heart disease?
That's the odd thing, which Theresa May exploited at Chequers: none of the Brexiteers agreed on their destination or had the foggiest idea how to get there. We see it today when the ERG despite having twice the numbers needed, can't get 48 of its members to write a letter. Even now, two years after the referendum, there is no settled view of what Brexit ought to resemble, which is why Theresa May can get away with shifting her red lines around almost by the day. Surely they can't all be Russian sleeper agents.
The ERG don't want to challenge May. Yet.
I think their plan is becoming clearer. Boris has not made a press appearance but I believe he is entitled to a resignation address in the HoC - he is probably furiously working away at this now. JRM remember is a Boris backer. My guess is that we will see:
- ERG collecting but not submitting letters of no confidence - Boris, DD and Baker putting together the detailed Leaver Brexit plan that they always thought was going to happen (eg CETA) and backing this up with their internal knowledge on MaxFac. - Remember, the 'delays' with MaxFac were the 'big problem' (mostly made up in my view) - but the delays on May's customs partnership will be far longer as it is far more complex. - JRM and co will dismantle the White Paper the moment it arrives. - Boris will make his entrance as the 'man with the plan', and detail how a CETA deal and MaxFac is perfectly possible. Baker (and DD) will support. - The main focus will be May's NI backstop decision, which has to be reversed before CETA can be implemented. I think the fact that BOTH the resignation letters today specifically mentioned this, as did DD, is no accident and means that May is going to get pinned on this as one of the most disastrous decisions by a PM in history. It will also be revealed that it was her decision alone. Since May still has to agree the backstop text to get her Chequers deal this is the point to attack - she will not be able to solve this issue anyway as there is still no backstop text agreed or that looks like it can be agreed.
Then, if May won't back down and go to the CETA plan, the letters will go in.
Cannot believe I am saying this, but Trump has a point. When even the richest nations like Germany don't meet their financial military obligations to NATO, and their military is simple not fit for purpose. They really are taking the US for a ride when it comes to expecting NATO to take up the flak and provide an effective Defence. https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1016781588158402567
If the Americans produced a few quality products people just might buy. After all, people buy Japanese, Korean cars but hardly buys any US made cars. Who ever saw a US made washing machine in Britain ?
Cannot believe I am saying this, but Trump has a point. When even the richest nations like Germany don't meet their financial military obligations to NATO, and their military is simple not fit for purpose. They really are taking the US for a ride when it comes to expecting NATO to take up the flak and provide an effective Defence. https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1016781588158402567
If the Americans produced a few quality products people just might buy. After all, people buy Japanese, Korean cars but hardly buys any US made cars. Who ever saw a US made washing machine in Britain ?
Years back i had a landlord who had an American washing machine and a dryer in his house (he lived around the corner we got to use them if ours was up the spout). His wife was American and refused to have a British washing machine or dryer in her house. Now I live in America and I do prefer the American machines, especially the dryers.
Until the ERG can put up a credible alternative plan that doesn't involve trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules, it doesn't matter which candidate they can find.
May's "agreement" is essentially "trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules".
williamglenn, the ultimate appeaser. The EU tries to blackmail the UK over its ridiculous NI backstop and you think if we refuse then we are blackmailing the EU. You are a joke.
CETA Plus with Maxfac does not cross any EU redlines nor does it in any way require the EU to change their rules. On the other hand, as glw correctly points out, May's plan requires them to re-write their entire rulebook.
That is why the only deals that could ever be done with the EU are surrender (EEA+CU) or CETA. Or No Deal, which is what you will get as a result of the Remainers running the show.
Why is it a blackmail ? The EU has always maintained the four pillars are indivisable. It is the Brexit UK people who had deluded themselves that "we are so important" that they will have "no choice" but give the UK access to the Internal Market without FoM. Oh, I forgot the silly trade deficit !
Try and understand. CETA does not involve the four freedoms. It is a free trade agreement. Leavers don't want anything more than that. We never wanted to remain in the single market - we just want to trade with the EU like everyone else in the World.
Remainers are obsessed with retaining parts of EU membership such as 'frictionless trade'. May's plan involves dividing the four freedoms. She is a Remainer.
How hard is it to understand that the Remainers are running this negotiation? Surely the sight of the Leavers resigning might have been a hint?
That's the odd thing, which Theresa May exploited at Chequers: none of the Brexiteers agreed on their destination or had the foggiest idea how to get there. We see it today when the ERG despite having twice the numbers needed, can't get 48 of its members to write a letter. Even now, two years after the referendum, there is no settled view of what Brexit ought to resemble, which is why Theresa May can get away with shifting her red lines around almost by the day. Surely they can't all be Russian sleeper agents.
The ERG don't want to challenge May. Yet.
I think their plan is becoming clearer. Boris has not made a press appearance but I believe he is entitled to a resignation address in the HoC - he is probably furiously working away at this now. JRM remember is a Boris backer. My guess is that we will see:
- ERG collecting but not submitting letters of no confidence - Boris, DD and Baker putting together the detailed Leaver Brexit plan that they always thought was going to happen (eg CETA) and backing this up with their internal knowledge on MaxFac. - Remember, the 'delays' with MaxFac were the 'big problem' (mostly made up in my view) - but the delays on May's customs partnership will be far longer as it is far more complex. - JRM and co will dismantle the White Paper the moment it arrives. - Boris will make his entrance as the 'man with the plan', and detail how a CETA deal and MaxFac is perfectly possible. Baker (and DD) will support. - The main focus will be May's NI backstop decision, which has to be reversed before CETA can be implemented. I think the fact that BOTH the resignation letters today specifically mentioned this, as did DD, is no accident and means that May is going to get pinned on this as one of the most disastrous decisions by a PM in history. It will also be revealed that it was her decision alone. Since May still has to agree the backstop text to get her Chequers deal this is the point to attack - she will not be able to solve this issue anyway as there is still no backstop text agreed or that looks like it can be agreed.
Then, if May won't back down and go to the CETA plan, the letters will go in.
But the EU has made it clear that the Irish backstop is a pre-requisite for any deal. Hope you like powdered egg.
I think their plan is becoming clearer. Boris has not made a press appearance but I believe he is entitled to a resignation address in the HoC - he is probably furiously working away at this now. JRM remember is a Boris backer. My guess is that we will see:
- ERG collecting but not submitting letters of no confidence - Boris, DD and Baker putting together the detailed Leaver Brexit plan that they always thought was going to happen (eg CETA) and backing this up with their internal knowledge on MaxFac. - Remember, the 'delays' with MaxFac were the 'big problem' (mostly made up in my view) - but the delays on May's customs partnership will be far longer as it is far more complex. - JRM and co will dismantle the White Paper the moment it arrives. - Boris will make his entrance as the 'man with the plan', and detail how a CETA deal and MaxFac is perfectly possible. Baker (and DD) will support. - The main focus will be May's NI backstop decision, which has to be reversed before CETA can be implemented. I think the fact that BOTH the resignation letters today specifically mentioned this, as did DD, is no accident and means that May is going to get pinned on this as one of the most disastrous decisions by a PM in history. It will also be revealed that it was her decision alone. Since May still has to agree the backstop text to get her Chequers deal this is the point to attack - she will not be able to solve this issue anyway as there is still no backstop text agreed or that looks like it can be agreed.
Then, if May won't back down and go to the CETA plan, the letters will go in.
But the EU has made it clear that the Irish backstop is a pre-requisite for any deal. Hope you like powdered egg.
Well, as many here point out, I live in Australia, where every good from every country goes through customs as well as very stringent quarantine checks. Yet the supermarkets are completely full of food, the stores full of goods, the manufacturers have their parts. It must be magic. I think the Unicorns must bring it all in.
If the EU require a NI backstop (or I should say, a legally enforceable backstop) then No Deal is the only responsible outcome.
That's the odd thing, which Theresa May exploited at Chequers: none of the Brexiteers agreed on their destination or had the foggiest idea how to get there. We see it today when the ERG despite having twice the numbers needed, can't get 48 of its members to write a letter. Even now, two years after the referendum, there is no settled view of what Brexit ought to resemble, which is why Theresa May can get away with shifting her red lines around almost by the day. Surely they can't all be Russian sleeper agents.
The ERG don't want to challenge May. Yet.
I think their plan is becoming clearer. Boris has not made a press appearance but I believe he is entitled to a resignation address in the HoC - he is probably furiously working away at this now. JRM remember is a Boris backer. My guess is that we will see:
- ERG collecting but not submitting letters of no confidence - Boris, DD and Baker putting together the detailed Leaver Brexit plan that they always thought was going to happen (eg CETA) and backing this up with their internal knowledge on MaxFac. - Remember, the 'delays' with MaxFac were the 'big problem' (mostly made up in my view) - but the delays on May's customs partnership will be far longer as it is far more complex. - JRM and co will dismantle the White Paper the moment it arrives. - Boris will make his entrance as the 'man with the plan', and detail how a CETA deal and MaxFac is perfectly possible. Baker (and DD) will support. - The main focus will be May's NI backstop decision, which has to be reversed before CETA can be implemented. I think the fact that BOTH the resignation letters today specifically mentioned this, as did DD, is no accident and means that May is going to get pinned on this as one of the most disastrous decisions by a PM in history. It will also be revealed that it was her decision alone. Since May still has to agree the backstop text to get her Chequers deal this is the point to attack - she will not be able to solve this issue anyway as there is still no backstop text agreed or that looks like it can be agreed.
Then, if May won't back down and go to the CETA plan, the letters will go in.
Apparently Boris is also going to start "going around the country" making the case for Brexit (and his plan) in due course.
I think their plan is becoming clearer. Boris has not made a press appearance but I believe he is entitled to a resignation address in the HoC - he is probably furiously working away at this now. JRM remember is a Boris backer. My guess is that we will see:
- ERG collecting but not submitting letters of no confidence - Boris, DD and Baker putting together the detailed Leaver Brexit plan that they always thought was going to happen (eg CETA) and backing this up with their internal knowledge on MaxFac. - Remember, the 'delays' with MaxFac were the 'big problem' (mostly made up in my view) - but the delays on May's customs partnership will be far longer as it is far more complex. - JRM and co will dismantle the White Paper the moment it arrives. - Boris will make his entrance as the 'man with the plan', and detail how a CETA deal and MaxFac is perfectly possible. Baker (and DD) will support. - The main focus will be May's NI backstop decision, which has to be reversed before CETA can be implemented. I think the fact that BOTH the resignation letters today specifically mentioned this, as did DD, is no accident and means that May is going to get pinned on this as one of the most disastrous decisions by a PM in history. It will also be revealed that it was her decision alone. Since May still has to agree the backstop text to get her Chequers deal this is the point to attack - she will not be able to solve this issue anyway as there is still no backstop text agreed or that looks like it can be agreed.
Then, if May won't back down and go to the CETA plan, the letters will go in.
Apparently Boris is also going to start "going around the country" making the case for Brexit (and his plan) in due course.
Wonder if he'll get the bus back in commission?
Good idea. Boris' reputation has been trashed since his main ability - the ability to make his case directly to the people - was taken away by being in Government. I don't necessarily think he will replace May, but it is not beyond the realms of possibility if he can get back out there and argue for an alternative manifesto.
Boris' reputation has been trashed since his main ability - the ability to make his case directly to the people - was taken away by being in Government.
If that a euphemism for the ability to deceive people without being held to account?
Boris' reputation has been trashed since his main ability - the ability to make his case directly to the people - was taken away by being in Government.
If that a euphemism for the ability to deceive people without being held to account?
Yes, because the people are stupid. Silly plebs. Why even bother letting them vote since they are so gullible?
Why don't we just let a collection of unelected officials who are clearly cleverer than everyone else just make decisions for us?
Boris' reputation has been trashed since his main ability - the ability to make his case directly to the people - was taken away by being in Government.
If that a euphemism for the ability to deceive people without being held to account?
Yes, because the people are stupid. Silly plebs. Why even bother letting them vote since they are so gullible?
Why don't we just let a collection of unelected officials who are clearly cleverer than everyone else just make decisions for us?
I thought you were against giving people the final say on whether to leave?
That's the odd thing, which Theresa May exploited at Chequers: none of the Brexiteers agreed on their destination or had the foggiest idea how to get there. We see it today when the ERG despite having twice the numbers needed, can't get 48 of its members to write a letter. Even now, two years after the referendum, there is no settled view of what Brexit ought to resemble, which is why Theresa May can get away with shifting her red lines around almost by the day. Surely they can't all be Russian sleeper agents.
The ERG don't want to challenge May. Yet.
I think their plan is becoming clearer. Boris has not made a press appearance but I believe he is entitled to a resignation address in the HoC - he is probably furiously working away at this now. JRM remember is a Boris backer. My guess is that we will see:
- ERG collecting but not submitting letters of no confidence - Boris, DD and Baker putting together the detailed Leaver Brexit plan that they always thought was going to happen (eg CETA) and backing this up with their internal knowledge on MaxFac. - Remember, the 'delays' with MaxFac were the 'big problem' (mostly made up in my view) - but the delays on May's customs partnership will be far longer as it is far more complex. - JRM and co will dismantle the White Paper the moment it arrives. - Boris will make his entrance as the 'man with the plan', and detail how a CETA deal and MaxFac is perfectly possible. Baker (and DD) will support. - The main focus will be May's NI backstop decision, which has to be reversed before CETA can be implemented. I think the fact that BOTH the resignation letters today specifically mentioned this, as did DD, is no accident and means that May is going to get pinned on this as one of the most disastrous decisions by a PM in history. It will also be revealed that it was her decision alone. Since May still has to agree the backstop text to get her Chequers deal this is the point to attack - she will not be able to solve this issue anyway as there is still no backstop text agreed or that looks like it can be agreed.
Then, if May won't back down and go to the CETA plan, the letters will go in.
Are you suggesting they have a cunning plan? One so cunning that it has not been able to be revealed, in all its cunning, in the 2 years since the vote?
Boris' reputation has been trashed since his main ability - the ability to make his case directly to the people - was taken away by being in Government.
If that a euphemism for the ability to deceive people without being held to account?
Yes, because the people are stupid. Silly plebs. Why even bother letting them vote since they are so gullible?
Why don't we just let a collection of unelected officials who are clearly cleverer than everyone else just make decisions for us?
I thought you were against giving people the final say on whether to leave?
People who believe in democracy generally think you don't require two votes if the side you don't like loses. I don't recall you arguing for votes every time the terms of the 1975 settlement changed?
Cannot believe I am saying this, but Trump has a point. When even the richest nations like Germany don't meet their financial military obligations to NATO, and their military is simple not fit for purpose. They really are taking the US for a ride when it comes to expecting NATO to take up the flak and provide an effective Defence. https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1016781588158402567
If the Americans produced a few quality products people just might buy. After all, people buy Japanese, Korean cars but hardly buys any US made cars. Who ever saw a US made washing machine in Britain ?
It's nothing to do with product quality - exchange rates adjust for that. It has everything to do with America borrowing way beyond its means, something Trump has accelerated. He's a truly shit president.
Boris' reputation has been trashed since his main ability - the ability to make his case directly to the people - was taken away by being in Government.
If that a euphemism for the ability to deceive people without being held to account?
Yes, because the people are stupid. Silly plebs. Why even bother letting them vote since they are so gullible?
Why don't we just let a collection of unelected officials who are clearly cleverer than everyone else just make decisions for us?
I thought you were against giving people the final say on whether to leave?
People who believe in democracy generally think you don't require two votes if the side you don't like loses. I don't recall you arguing for votes every time the terms of the 1975 settlement changed?
Yes, but. The Chequers plan has 2 advantages.
1 It fulfills the vote. It leaves the EU. 2 It is an actual plan.
Until the ERG can put up a credible alternative plan that doesn't involve trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules, it doesn't matter which candidate they can find.
May's "agreement" is essentially "trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules".
Let's hope it works then, though I'm not hugely hopeful.
Neither am I.
Look at what Katya Adler wrote yesterday:
Here's the blackmail:
Now, Downing Street believes that the hot water the prime minister is in today will shock EU leaders into realising they need to start compromising themselves - not just perpetually demanding capitulations on the UK's red lines.
And here's the response:
"On the one hand, it's true what Downing Street says," one EU source told me. "The UK is bigger than Norway and strategically, politically and economically more important to us than Switzerland, yes. But EU countries benefit more from keeping their club - the single market and customs union - intact, than they would do by compromising everything just for the sake of better bilateral relations with the UK after Brexit. You can forget it."
As I keep saying where is the slightest evidence that the EU will compromise on the four freedoms? I'm not being awkward here, I've seen none.
They have made multiple trade deals where the four freedoms have been divided up. The proposed deal of free movement of goods, but not of services, capital or people doesn't make sense for anyone but the UK. Well, possibly Ireland.
Boris' reputation has been trashed since his main ability - the ability to make his case directly to the people - was taken away by being in Government.
If that a euphemism for the ability to deceive people without being held to account?
Yes, because the people are stupid. Silly plebs. Why even bother letting them vote since they are so gullible?
Why don't we just let a collection of unelected officials who are clearly cleverer than everyone else just make decisions for us?
I thought you were against giving people the final say on whether to leave?
People who believe in democracy generally think you don't require two votes if the side you don't like loses. I don't recall you arguing for votes every time the terms of the 1975 settlement changed?
Yes, but. The Chequers plan has 2 advantages.
1 It fulfills the vote. It leaves the EU. 2 It is an actual plan.
You seem to be defending against an argument I wasn't making.
That's the odd thing, which Theresa May exploited at Chequers: none of the Brexiteers agreed on their destination or had the foggiest idea how to get there. We see it today when the ERG despite having twice the numbers needed, can't get 48 of its members to write a letter. Even now, two years after the referendum, there is no settled view of what Brexit ought to resemble, which is why Theresa May can get away with shifting her red lines around almost by the day. Surely they can't all be Russian sleeper agents.
The ERG don't want to challenge May. Yet.
I think their plan is becoming clearer. Boris has not made a press appearance but I believe he is entitled to a resignation address in the HoC - he is probably furiously working away at this now. JRM remember is a Boris backer. My guess is that we will see:
- ERG collecting but not submitting letters of no confidence - Boris, DD and Baker putting together the detailed Leaver Brexit plan that they always thought was going to happen (eg CETA) and backing this up with their internal knowledge on MaxFac. - Remember, the 'delays' with MaxFac were the 'big problem' (mostly made up in my view) - but the delays on May's customs partnership will be far longer as it is far more complex. - JRM and co will dismantle the White Paper the moment it arrives. - Boris will make his entrance as the 'man with the plan', and detail how a CETA deal and MaxFac is perfectly possible. Baker (and DD) will support. - The main focus will be May's NI backstop decision, which has to be reversed before CETA can be implemented. I think the fact that BOTH the resignation letters today specifically mentioned this, as did DD, is no accident and means that May is going to get pinned on this as one of the most disastrous decisions by a PM in history. It will also be revealed that it was her decision alone. Since May still has to agree the backstop text to get her Chequers deal this is the point to attack - she will not be able to solve this issue anyway as there is still no backstop text agreed or that looks like it can be agreed.
Then, if May won't back down and go to the CETA plan, the letters will go in.
Are you suggesting they have a cunning plan? One so cunning that it has not been able to be revealed, in all its cunning, in the 2 years since the vote?
Until the ERG can put up a credible alternative plan that doesn't involve trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules, it doesn't matter which candidate they can find.
May's "agreement" is essentially "trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules".
williamglenn, the ultimate appeaser. The EU tries to blackmail the UK over its ridiculous NI backstop and you think if we refuse then we are blackmailing the EU. You are a joke.
CETA Plus with Maxfac does not cross any EU redlines nor does it in any way require the EU to change their rules. On the other hand, as glw correctly points out, May's plan requires them to re-write their entire rulebook.
That is why the only deals that could ever be done with the EU are surrender (EEA+CU) or CETA. Or No Deal, which is what you will get as a result of the Remainers running the show.
Why is it a blackmail ? The EU has always maintained the four pillars are indivisable. It is the Brexit UK people who had deluded themselves that "we are so important" that they will have "no choice" but give the UK access to the Internal Market without FoM. Oh, I forgot the silly trade deficit !
Try and understand. CETA does not involve the four freedoms. It is a free trade agreement. Leavers don't want anything more than that. We never wanted to remain in the single market - we just want to trade with the EU like everyone else in the World.
Remainers are obsessed with retaining parts of EU membership such as 'frictionless trade'. May's plan involves dividing the four freedoms. She is a Remainer.
How hard is it to understand that the Remainers are running this negotiation? Surely the sight of the Leavers resigning might have been a hint?
It is David Davis who used to continue mumble Canada ++++. Why should the EU accept that ? We can have Norway or Switzerland or Canada but not some hybrid where we pick and choose.
That's the odd thing, which Theresa May exploited at Chequers: none of the Brexiteers agreed on their destination or had the foggiest idea how to get there. We see it today when the ERG despite having twice the numbers needed, can't get 48 of its members to write a letter. Even now, two years after the referendum, there is no settled view of what Brexit ought to resemble, which is why Theresa May can get away with shifting her red lines around almost by the day. Surely they can't all be Russian sleeper agents.
The ERG don't want to challenge May. Yet.
I think their plan is becoming clearer. Boris has not made a press appearance but I believe he is entitled to a resignation address in the HoC - he is probably furiously working away at this now. JRM remember is a Boris backer. My guess is that we will see:
- ERG collecting but not submitting letters of no confidence - Boris, DD and Baker putting together the detailed Leaver Brexit plan that they always thought was going to happen (eg CETA) and backing this up with their internal knowledge on MaxFac. - Remember, the 'delays' with MaxFac were the 'big problem' (mostly made up in my view) - but the delays on May's customs partnership will be far longer as it is far more complex. - JRM and co will dismantle the White Paper the moment it arrives. - Boris will make his entrance as the 'man with the plan', and detail how a CETA deal and MaxFac is perfectly possible. Baker (and DD) will support. - The main focus will be May's NI backstop decision, which has to be reversed before CETA can be implemented. I think the fact that BOTH the resignation letters today specifically mentioned this, as did DD, is no accident and means that May is going to get pinned on this as one of the most disastrous decisions by a PM in history. It will also be revealed that it was her decision alone. Since May still has to agree the backstop text to get her Chequers deal this is the point to attack - she will not be able to solve this issue anyway as there is still no backstop text agreed or that looks like it can be agreed.
Then, if May won't back down and go to the CETA plan, the letters will go in.
I think you're crediting the Boris with rather more organisational nous than he has ever shown historically.
Until the ERG can put up a credible alternative plan that doesn't involve trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules, it doesn't matter which candidate they can find.
May's "agreement" is essentially "trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules".
Let's hope it works then, though I'm not hugely hopeful.
Neither am I.
Look at what Katya Adler wrote yesterday:
Here's the blackmail:
Now, Downing Street believes that the hot water the prime minister is in today will shock EU leaders into realising they need to start compromising themselves - not just perpetually demanding capitulations on the UK's red lines.
And here's the response:
"On the one hand, it's true what Downing Street says," one EU source told me. "The UK is bigger than Norway and strategically, politically and economically more important to us than Switzerland, yes. But EU countries benefit more from keeping their club - the single market and customs union - intact, than they would do by compromising everything just for the sake of better bilateral relations with the UK after Brexit. You can forget it."
As I keep saying where is the slightest evidence that the EU will compromise on the four freedoms? I'm not being awkward here, I've seen none.
They have made multiple trade deals where the four freedoms have been divided up. The proposed deal of free movement of goods, but not of services, capital or people doesn't make sense for anyone but the UK. Well, possibly Ireland.
But not with former members of the EU. None of this is about getting the best deal for anyone, it's protection of the bloc. I think the French say "pour encourage les autres"
If the UK can walk and get an acceptable deal with a mixture of the 4 freedoms that doesn't devastate their economy, maybe Poland or Italy might be tempted to do it too ?
The UK must be humbled and brought into line. We either accept this, or walk away.
Boris' reputation has been trashed since his main ability - the ability to make his case directly to the people - was taken away by being in Government.
If that a euphemism for the ability to deceive people without being held to account?
Yes, because the people are stupid. Silly plebs. Why even bother letting them vote since they are so gullible?
Why don't we just let a collection of unelected officials who are clearly cleverer than everyone else just make decisions for us?
I thought you were against giving people the final say on whether to leave?
People who believe in democracy generally think you don't require two votes if the side you don't like loses. I don't recall you arguing for votes every time the terms of the 1975 settlement changed?
Yes, but. The Chequers plan has 2 advantages.
1 It fulfills the vote. It leaves the EU. 2 It is an actual plan.
You seem to be defending against an argument I wasn't making.
Until the ERG can put up a credible alternative plan that doesn't involve trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules, it doesn't matter which candidate they can find.
May's "agreement" is essentially "trying to blackmail the EU to change its rules".
Let's hope it works then, though I'm not hugely hopeful.
Neither am I.
Look at what Katya Adler wrote yesterday:
Here's the blackmail:
Now, Downing Street believes that the hot water the prime minister is in today will shock EU leaders into realising they need to start compromising themselves - not just perpetually demanding capitulations on the UK's red lines.
And here's the response:
"On the one hand, it's true what Downing Street says," one EU source told me. "The UK is bigger than Norway and strategically, politically and economically more important to us than Switzerland, yes. But EU countries benefit more from keeping their club - the single market and customs union - intact, than they would do by compromising everything just for the sake of better bilateral relations with the UK after Brexit. You can forget it."
As I keep saying where is the slightest evidence that the EU will compromise on the four freedoms? I'm not being awkward here, I've seen none.
They have made multiple trade deals where the four freedoms have been divided up. The proposed deal of free movement of goods, but not of services, capital or people doesn't make sense for anyone but the UK. Well, possibly Ireland.
But not with former members of the EU. None of this is about getting the best deal for anyone, it's protection of the bloc. I think the French say "pour encourage les autres"
If the UK can walk and get an acceptable deal with a mixture of the 4 freedoms that doesn't devastate their economy, maybe Poland or Italy might be tempted to do it too ?
The UK must be humbled and brought into line. We either accept this, or walk away.
Though we could at least get sone reflection of the transition controls on free movement we were entitled to as EU members in 2004 but Blair never took up
On a side note, May actually looks visibly a lot less uptight today. Like the weight has been lifted off her shoulders now she's actually made a decision. just seen her with Merkel on the evening news, and she sounded like a different woman.
I thought May put in a stellar performance yesterday, there definitely seems to be a new firmer sense of purpose in her demeanour. Now May and her team need to show the EU the same back bone they displayed to the Cabinet at Chequers last Friday and tell them its this deal or no deal, there will be no more concessions.
Its also maybe time to stop putting up with the negative briefing from the EU negotiating team, now you cannot confiscate their mobiles. But if they don't play ball, ambush them by undermining their position and going directly to the other Leaders of the EU who really make the important decisions behind closed doors. While the unelected EU bureaucrats may think its their job to protect the EU project by making Brexit as hard as possible job for us. The elected Leaders of those countries also need Brexit to work as much as we do. They too need to keep trade flowing between our countries, jobs depend on it, and the people in those jobs in their countries vote too.
I think their plan is becoming clearer. Boris has not made a press appearance but I believe he is entitled to a resignation address in the HoC - he is probably furiously working away at this now. JRM remember is a Boris backer. My guess is that we will see:
- ERG collecting but not submitting letters of no confidence - Boris, DD and Baker putting together the detailed Leaver Brexit plan that they always thought was going to happen (eg CETA) and backing this up with their internal knowledge on MaxFac. - Remember, the 'delays' with MaxFac were the 'big problem' (mostly made up in my view) - but the delays on May's customs partnership will be far longer as it is far more complex. - JRM and co will dismantle the White Paper the moment it arrives. - Boris will make his entrance as the 'man with the plan', and detail how a CETA deal and MaxFac is perfectly possible. Baker (and DD) will support. - The main focus will be May's NI backstop decision, which has to be reversed before CETA can be implemented. I think the fact that BOTH the resignation letters today specifically mentioned this, as did DD, is no accident and means that May is going to get pinned on this as one of the most disastrous decisions by a PM in history. It will also be revealed that it was her decision alone. Since May still has to agree the backstop text to get her Chequers deal this is the point to attack - she will not be able to solve this issue anyway as there is still no backstop text agreed or that looks like it can be agreed.
Then, if May won't back down and go to the CETA plan, the letters will go in.
But the EU has made it clear that the Irish backstop is a pre-requisite for any deal. Hope you like powdered egg.
Well, as many here point out, I live in Australia, where every good from every country goes through customs as well as very stringent quarantine checks. Yet the supermarkets are completely full of food, the stores full of goods, the manufacturers have their parts. It must be magic. I think the Unicorns must bring it all in.
If the EU require a NI backstop (or I should say, a legally enforceable backstop) then No Deal is the only responsible outcome.
Yup, because your supply chains were built up over time with your customs procedures built in. Plus you are a net exporter of food, are you not? Brexit Britain is very much not a net exporter of food, and may find that suddenly disrupting its supply chains with previously non-existent customs procedures to be an experience not necessarily to its advantage.
From my perspective as a relatively ambivalent Labour remainer, I actually think the May proposal is a pretty sensible compromise.
3 points I would make:
1. May can go to the Europeans now and effectively say 'Look this is a good deal for you, it's such a good deal 2 of my most senior cabinet ministers have resigned because of it. Don't push your look and ask for anymore'.
2. With Boris and DD gone, she can probably get away with extending the UK's membership of the customs union for a couple of years, until the technology is ready for the FCA implementation.
3. Both of the 2 above points are only possible IF Labour comes out in support of the deal. Which they should do. Not only because it's the right thing to do for the country (and is actually pretty close to what Labour wants), but it'd be smart politically as a deal passed on Labour votes would drive the Brexiteers totally bonkers and split the Tories in two.
Lets see if the Labour leadership can play chess and not checkers and realise this. I'm not sure they will sadly...
The credit for the great betrayal should belong to the Tories alone and nobody else.
Comments
Especially as I suspect negotiating trade deals would mean our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert' diplomats posturing about the world at detrimental cost to the rest of us.
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1016794212673773574
(only available to US-based PBers or those with VPNs I'm afraid)
Providing a natural economic stability both to economies internally and between different countries.
A characteristic of many endgames in chess where the result is clear is that pieces leave the board quickly to make the eventual win obvious. What we have seen with the resignations of some (Davis, Baker and Johnson at the time of writing) is but the first stage in that process.
Barring something completely unexpected, May has won.
https://order-order.com/2018/07/10/may-blocks-merkel-talking-chequers-deal/
Why is that May - you showed your cunning plan to Merkel before your own cabinet after all?
But most likely spin.
Things can move quickly back and forth in the space of a few days as we saw this weekend. Other events can affect things too beyond Brexit.
And I'm always wondering just how very senior police officers are able to acquire a good couple of rows of gongs on their uniforms.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DrsVhzbLzU
Aberdeenshire
Angus
Fife
Cambridgeshire
Norfolk
West Sussex
Kent
I was wondering if we should have a PB sweepstake when the score first hits zero or last day above zero.
By drone in other countries without a trial and with any other casualties deemed collateral damage.
Now I doubt many people will shed tears for the people it is carried out upon but the death penalty is now in use.
All the best England , Gareth and the young team ( apart from Ashley Young who is not so young)
Look at what Katya Adler wrote yesterday:
Here's the blackmail:
Now, Downing Street believes that the hot water the prime minister is in today will shock EU leaders into realising they need to start compromising themselves - not just perpetually demanding capitulations on the UK's red lines.
And here's the response:
"On the one hand, it's true what Downing Street says," one EU source told me. "The UK is bigger than Norway and strategically, politically and economically more important to us than Switzerland, yes. But EU countries benefit more from keeping their club - the single market and customs union - intact, than they would do by compromising everything just for the sake of better bilateral relations with the UK after Brexit. You can forget it."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44770630
As I keep saying where is the slightest evidence that the EU will compromise on the four freedoms? I'm not being awkward here, I've seen none.
Romulan Lukaku!
(I'll get me coat...)
I will be on a plane out of Istanbul just before the match starts. I will only know the result if it is announced in the plane.
CETA Plus with Maxfac does not cross any EU redlines nor does it in any way require the EU to change their rules. On the other hand, as glw correctly points out, May's plan requires them to re-write their entire rulebook.
That is why the only deals that could ever be done with the EU are surrender (EEA+CU) or CETA. Or No Deal, which is what you will get as a result of the Remainers running the show.
And then you wonder why people want to leave
Dominic Grieve, Gisela Stuart"
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/whatever-side-of-the-debate-we-need-to-fundamentally-re-think-how-we-use-referendums-jf5r58vn7
I think their plan is becoming clearer. Boris has not made a press appearance but I believe he is entitled to a resignation address in the HoC - he is probably furiously working away at this now. JRM remember is a Boris backer. My guess is that we will see:
- ERG collecting but not submitting letters of no confidence
- Boris, DD and Baker putting together the detailed Leaver Brexit plan that they always thought was going to happen (eg CETA) and backing this up with their internal knowledge on MaxFac.
- Remember, the 'delays' with MaxFac were the 'big problem' (mostly made up in my view) - but the delays on May's customs partnership will be far longer as it is far more complex.
- JRM and co will dismantle the White Paper the moment it arrives.
- Boris will make his entrance as the 'man with the plan', and detail how a CETA deal and MaxFac is perfectly possible. Baker (and DD) will support.
- The main focus will be May's NI backstop decision, which has to be reversed before CETA can be implemented. I think the fact that BOTH the resignation letters today specifically mentioned this, as did DD, is no accident and means that May is going to get pinned on this as one of the most disastrous decisions by a PM in history. It will also be revealed that it was her decision alone. Since May still has to agree the backstop text to get her Chequers deal this is the point to attack - she will not be able to solve this issue anyway as there is still no backstop text agreed or that looks like it can be agreed.
Then, if May won't back down and go to the CETA plan, the letters will go in.
Remainers are obsessed with retaining parts of EU membership such as 'frictionless trade'. May's plan involves dividing the four freedoms. She is a Remainer.
How hard is it to understand that the Remainers are running this negotiation? Surely the sight of the Leavers resigning might have been a hint?
If the EU require a NI backstop (or I should say, a legally enforceable backstop) then No Deal is the only responsible outcome.
Wonder if he'll get the bus back in commission?
Why don't we just let a collection of unelected officials who are clearly cleverer than everyone else just make decisions for us?
One so cunning that it has not been able to be revealed, in all its cunning, in the 2 years since the vote?
1 It fulfills the vote. It leaves the EU.
2 It is an actual plan.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1016700693468663808
If the UK can walk and get an acceptable deal with a mixture of the 4 freedoms that doesn't devastate their economy, maybe Poland or Italy might be tempted to do it too ?
The UK must be humbled and brought into line. We either accept this, or walk away.
Its also maybe time to stop putting up with the negative briefing from the EU negotiating team, now you cannot confiscate their mobiles. But if they don't play ball, ambush them by undermining their position and going directly to the other Leaders of the EU who really make the important decisions behind closed doors. While the unelected EU bureaucrats may think its their job to protect the EU project by making Brexit as hard as possible job for us. The elected Leaders of those countries also need Brexit to work as much as we do. They too need to keep trade flowing between our countries, jobs depend on it, and the people in those jobs in their countries vote too.