The bastards bluff has been called and then there were nine.....
What a pathetic lilly livered bunch the Tory cabinet are. The only thing that is saving their miserable government is Corbyn. Time to abandon Brexit once and for all.
Gove has defended the Chequers accord. Davis has rejected it and resigned.
If everyone who voted Leave in June 2016 knew what they had voted for beyond leaving the EU this would not be possible.
The alternative interpretation is that DD is a man of principle and that Gove is a backstabbing little swine who is only interested in his leadership dreams. Gove is against TM's plan; he supported it because he thought that getting onside with Remain colleagues would smooth his path to the leadership. Once again, Gove has made a fatal error of judgement. No surprise.
Obituary for David Davis. He was the only Leaver who tried to make Brexit work.
Like every other prominent Brexiteer Davis had years to learn how the EU works, about EU supply chains, about how integrated goods and services are, about the complexities of the Irish border, about what drives FTAs, and so on. If he had he might have been able to develop a realistic plan for leaving. But like the rest of them he couldn’t be bothered to do it. It was too much like hard work. So, instead he thought we could do trade deals with individual EU member states, that the UK held all the negotiating aces, that in leaving we would keep all of the benefits of membership with none of the downsides and that German car manufacturers would save the day. Basically, like the rest of them, he was utterly clueless. He winged it for two years and has now flown away. But there is no escaping the responsibility he has for where we are now. Like the rest of those who never did the hard yards, he owns this and will answer to posterity for it.
More lies. DD said what he wanted - CETA plus plus plus. Perfectly achievable. May sabotaged this by agreeing to the NI backstop. Read DDs letter - he says quite clearly that he told her not to do it.
As soon as the backstop was agreed, it was always going to be used as a tactic to force us away from CETA and towards vassal state bondage. I was 100% against the backstop the moment it was announced. I recall you were for May's Christmas deal.
Stop blaming Leavers for the decisions of Remainers.
There was only one possible response to "the backstop".
There is a perfectly easy solution to NI. Let me set it out. Then if any Remainer wants to address any objections in detail, I am happy to debate although the fact that the EU might not like the plan does not render it invalid:
- UK and EU sign a CETA style FTA based, like every other FTA, on regulatory equivalence. - Deal is 100% quota and tariff free. - We use the three baskets approach - (a) where we have the same regulations as the EU, (b) where they are different but the joint board decides the are 'equivalent' (same as CETA) and (c) where they diverge. This only applies to goods. - UK agrees that all EU goods are permissible under UK rules now and in the future regardless of which basket they fall into. This completely solves the NI border problem northbound (and, incidentally, gives EU companies almost the same access to the UK as they get now, quite an attractive concession). - Southbound (and in fact at all UK/EU borders) goods in the (a) basket can be moved without notification. They are fully compliant and there are no tariffs or quotas. No need for inspection. - Goods in the (b) basket need to be notified in advance. At normal borders they are subject to normal customs clearance. As a concession, in NI these checks are done by audit on the companies making the declaration at locations away from the border (eg MaxFac). So for goods where the UK chooses to diverge somewhat from EU regulations, UK companies will incur some limited border friction but the EU companies will not. - It is illegal for (c) goods to be imported to the EU and this can be enforced by joint checks and very high penalties. Industries that make (c) goods will need to manufacture to EU standards just as they would in any normal trade relationship. - Rules of origin declarations will need to be incorporated into the above just as they already are for non-EU goods. Also, inspection bodies in the EU and UK are authorised to issue certification for each others standards to save time and money for everyone.
Perfectly reasonable solution that respects the UK red lines and is not cherry picking, it is just an FTA with a streamlined customs regime for goods where regulations are already the same.
CETA is not based on regulatory equivalence; it just has provisions on voluntary regulatory cooperation. CETA isn't a viable basis for a relationship with no border controls.
I'm afraid that the childish nonsense about forcing Ministers who don't like to get taxis and walk the driveway has rather come home to roost. May seems to surround herself with people who think the Thick of It is a documentary but who unfortunately have far less ability than Malcolm Tucker. It is the passive aggressive mindset of the Home Office brought to number 10.
Davis is in himself no great loss to the government but failing to keep him on board does risk serious trouble for May. She made a serious mistake agreeing the back stop provisions last December. It was a gamble that a better overall deal would be found in time but it has been used to undermine our negotiating position yet further. The proposal she wants to put forward is deeply underwhelming but it may be a realistic assessment of what is possible based on her Head of State discussions at the Summit. Once again though, as with the failed election campaign, there is a chronic shortage of leadership and a total absence of inspiration.
The situation in NI means that she could not have not agreed to the backstop.
Even the token (presumably lefty) comedian on Pienaar yesterday realised that.
Why? Arlene Foster didn't want it. She was right. May signed up to a deal which she now says no British PM could ever sign up to. She basically gave up sovereignty to a chunk of the UK. It is so bad that we have to sign almost any deal with the EU to get around it. That is what the contortions of the proposal agreed at cabinet are about.
Brexit is the enemy of Unionism. Both Foster and yourself given your respective strong views on the Union should have realised that.
"Although the EU may not like the plan" is already getting up on the wrong side of the bed but in substance I'm sure the plan would work.
I recently had a moment in thinking technology could solve the problem. I was assured that was not possible. I don't think there would be anything wrong with a super smart solution such as the one you proposed (didn't go through every line and am no expert).
Let us see if they go for the solution you suggest. It seems a carve out from any other agreement but I suppose we need creative minds at the moment.
Obituary for David Davis. He was the only Leaver who tried to make Brexit work.
Like every other prominent Brexiteer Davis had years to learn how the EU works, about EU supply chains, about how integrated goods and services are, about the complexities of the Irish border, about what drives FTAs, and so on. If he had he might have been able to develop a realistic plan for leaving. But like the rest of them he couldn’t be bothered to do it. It was too much like hard work. So, instead he thought we could do trade deals with individual EU member states, that the UK held all the negotiating aces, that in leaving we would keep all of the benefits of membership with none of the downsides and that German car manufacturers would save the day. Basically, like the rest of them, he was utterly clueless. He winged it for two years and has now flown away. But there is no escaping the responsibility he has for where we are now. Like the rest of those who never did the hard yards, he owns this and will answer to posterity for it.
More lies. DD said what he wanted - CETA plus plus plus. Perfectly achievable. May sabotaged this by agreeing to the NI backstop. Read DDs letter - he says quite clearly that he told her not to do it.
As soon as the backstop was agreed, it was always going to be used as a tactic to force us away from CETA and towards vassal state bondage. I was 100% against the backstop the moment it was announced. I recall you were for May's Christmas deal.
Stop blaming Leavers for the decisions of Remainers.
Davis thought he could make Brexit work but gave up. The other Leavers didn't bother trying.
IF the Leavers can unseat May and replace her (not saying they can) they can get a CETA deal through Parliament. The Govt can ignore any directions passed by Parliament (eg CU votes) and simply say that if Parliament doesn't like it then pass a vote of no confidence. Parliament cannot direct the Executive on how to negotiate.
Then, they negotiate the CETA deal and put it up for a vote. Tory Remainers will vote for it, because the alternative is no deal and they campaigned for it anyway. The DUP and Lab Leavers will vote for it. Problem solved.
The old line that Parliament does not have a majority for hard Brexit is just that - a line.
Well, if it wasn't so serious it'd all be very entertaining. We've not seen a soap opera like it in politics in living memory. It's a pity that it's being carried out at such a critical time. Presumably the EU will delay their response while waiting to see whether the British offer is actually viable within the Conservative Party, let alone the country.
O/T: I was looking at the 7-day weather forecast arround the Thai caves - doesn't look too bad, with showers and the occasional thunnderstorm but no actual monsoon yet.
+1
I'd like to add that the rescue from the Thai caves seems quite incredible, and it'll be interesting to know how it's being done in detail. I hope the remaining nine people (and all the others in the caves helping them) get out safely before the real rains start.
As an aside, as a decided non-expert, it all seemed a little rushed, and I wonder what caused them to start extracting them so quickly. In my decidedly non-expert manner I thought they may have kept them in a little longer to feed them up and trained them.
Obituary for David Davis. He was the only Leaver who tried to make Brexit work.
Like every other prominent Brexiteer Davis had years to learn how the EU works, about EU supply chains, about how integrated goods and services are, about the complexities of the Irish border, about what drives FTAs, and so on. If he had he might have been able to develop a realistic plan for leaving. But like the rest of them he couldn’t be bothered to do it. It was too much like hard work. So, instead he thought we could do trade deals with individual EU member states, that the UK held all the negotiating aces, that in leaving we would keep all of the benefits of membership with none of the downsides and that German car manufacturers would save the day. Basically, like the rest of them, he was utterly clueless. He winged it for two years and has now flown away. But there is no escaping the responsibility he has for where we are now. Like the rest of those who never did the hard yards, he owns this and will answer to posterity for it.
More lies. DD said what he wanted - CETA plus plus plus. Perfectly achievable. May sabotaged this by agreeing to the NI backstop. Read DDs letter - he says quite clearly that he told her not to do it.
As soon as the backstop was agreed, it was always going to be used as a tactic to force us away from CETA and towards vassal state bondage. I was 100% against the backstop the moment it was announced. I recall you were for May's Christmas deal.
Stop blaming Leavers for the decisions of Remainers.
There was only one possible response to "the backstop".
Fuck off.
Suspect that is what DD will now say that he told May. This is her big weakness - it was an error of judgement up there with Munich. Now DD will make her wear it.
Obituary for David Davis. He was the only Leaver who tried to make Brexit work.
Like every other prominent Brexiteer Davis had years to learn how the EU works, about EU supply chains, about how integrated goods and services are, about the complexities of the Irish border, about what drives FTAs, and so on. If he had he might have been able to develop a realistic plan for leaving. But like the rest of them he couldn’t be bothered to do it. It was too much like hard work. So, instead he thought we could do trade deals with individual EU member states, that the UK held all the negotiating aces, that in leaving we would keep all of the benefits of membership with none of the downsides and that German car manufacturers would save the day. Basically, like the rest of them, he was utterly clueless. He winged it for two years and has now flown away. But there is no escaping the responsibility he has for where we are now. Like the rest of those who never did the hard yards, he owns this and will answer to posterity for it.
More lies. DD said what he wanted - CETA plus plus plus. Perfectly achievable. May sabotaged this by agreeing to the NI backstop. Read DDs letter - he says quite clearly that he told her not to do it.
As soon as the backstop was agreed, it was always going to be used as a tactic to force us away from CETA and towards vassal state bondage. I was 100% against the backstop the moment it was announced. I recall you were for May's Christmas deal.
Stop blaming Leavers for the decisions of Remainers.
Davis thought he could make Brexit work but gave up. The other Leavers didn't bother trying.
He gave up because May and Robbins were following their plan, not his, since September 2017. He tried his best but they wouldn't listen. What exactly do you think the Leavers should have done when a Remainer was running the show? The only answer is they should have probably resigned earlier.
“Creating an exit plan that makes sense and which all reasonable people could unite around seems an almost insuperable task.” Win the referendum first, then decide what to do with your victory. “There is much to be gained by swerving the whole issue,” Mr Cummings wrote, because “the sheer complexity of leaving would involve endless questions of detail that cannot be answered in such a place even were it to be 20,000 pages long, and the longer it is the more errors are likely.” He had a point there.
No wonder the Leavers decided that, actually, a blank piece of paper would suffice. The business of creating a plausible plan would be left to some other poor schmuck. The important thing was to Leave, the rest was mere detail.
You are entitled to feel cheated by this, to feel that the country deserved something a little better than this cavalier insouciance. The Brexiteers have had two years to produce something workable and have come up with less than nothing. It turns out that making it up as you go along comes with some strings and costs attached.
Yes but it is a bit late for the Prime Minister to hit a brick wall before wondering if Nigel Farage was in fact just a golf club bore who got lucky, if Boris was an opportunistic chancer or Davis and Fox out of their depths.
David Cameron should have set up some sort of commission to establish the shape of Brexit before the referendum (and to put that proposal on the ballot) and Theresa May should have done the same before triggering Article 50.
I'm afraid that the childish nonsense about forcing Ministers who don't like to get taxis and walk the driveway has rather come home to roost. May seems to surround herself with people who think the Thick of It is a documentary but who unfortunately have far less ability than Malcolm Tucker. It is the passive aggressive mindset of the Home Office brought to number 10.
Davis is in himself no great loss to the government but failing to keep him on board does risk serious trouble for May. She made a serious mistake agreeing the back stop provisions last December. It was a gamble that a better overall deal would be found in time but it has been used to undermine our negotiating position yet further. The proposal she wants to put forward is deeply underwhelming but it may be a realistic assessment of what is possible based on her Head of State discussions at the Summit. Once again though, as with the failed election campaign, there is a chronic shortage of leadership and a total absence of inspiration.
I know you should generally assume stupidity over malice but I think I'd look at it the other way: The whole point of that exercise was to trigger resignations and get the leadership challenge over and done with, so that TMay will have a clear run to negotiate terms of surrender reach a win-win deal with her European partners that may infringe somewhat on her red lines.
The thing about the taxis was almost set up as if to tempt a photo-op: Departing minister laces up his walking boots, hikes off stoically through the English countryside...
And that would have helped the government how, precisely? Stupidity doesn't even begin to cover it. Its macho posturing by the team that lost a majority by similar hubris and arrogance but who seemed to have learned nothing.
I have to disagree with you on this. All the government was saying was that actions have consequences; something many leavers (and especially hardcore Brexiteers) seem to forget.
Of course actions have consequences. And of course Cabinet Ministers should be bound by collective responsibility once a decision is made. And of course they should resign if they feel they can't do that. But threatening to take peoples' cars away before they get back to London? It was pathetic.
Well, if it wasn't so serious it'd all be very entertaining. We've not seen a soap opera like it in politics in living memory. It's a pity that it's being carried out at such a critical time. Presumably the EU will delay their response while waiting to see whether the British offer is actually viable within the Conservative Party, let alone the country.
O/T: I was looking at the 7-day weather forecast arround the Thai caves - doesn't look too bad, with showers and the occasional thunnderstorm but no actual monsoon yet.
That's good news. It's a difficult operation and everyone is willing the boys to come out unharmed.
Then, they negotiate the CETA deal and put it up for a vote.
The deal you outlined is not negotiable with the EU, and in any case trade negotiations wouldn't start until after we leave and the backstop becomes part of an international treaty.
Well, if it wasn't so serious it'd all be very entertaining. We've not seen a soap opera like it in politics in living memory. It's a pity that it's being carried out at such a critical time. Presumably the EU will delay their response while waiting to see whether the British offer is actually viable within the Conservative Party, let alone the country.
O/T: I was looking at the 7-day weather forecast arround the Thai caves - doesn't look too bad, with showers and the occasional thunnderstorm but no actual monsoon yet.
+1
I'd like to add that the rescue from the Thai caves seems quite incredible, and it'll be interesting to know how it's being done in detail. I hope the remaining nine people (and all the others in the caves helping them) get out safely before the real rains start.
As an aside, as a decided non-expert, it all seemed a little rushed, and I wonder what caused them to start extracting them so quickly. In my decidedly non-expert manner I thought they may have kept them in a little longer to feed them up and trained them.
Think I heard something about dams built to redirect water from rainfall, hopefully not needed but if it does rain the cave should fill up at a slower rate than before.
"Although the EU may not like the plan" is already getting up on the wrong side of the bed but in substance I'm sure the plan would work.
I recently had a moment in thinking technology could solve the problem. I was assured that was not possible. I don't think there would be anything wrong with a super smart solution such as the one you proposed (didn't go through every line and am no expert).
Let us see if they go for the solution you suggest. It seems a carve out from any other agreement but I suppose we need creative minds at the moment.
Technology cannot solve the NI border problem perfectly. But customs is not a perfect system - neither is the tax system. They are risk based approaches aimed at driving substantial (and certainly not perfect) compliance. The vast majority of non-EU imports are cleared in 5 minutes with no inspection.
In relation to NI, the solution to the GFA problem is that both sides accept that their JOINT responsibilities require them to accept a solution that is probably less perfect than a traditional border but that would do the job. Since such a small portion of UK/EU trade goes over this border it was always possible.
Well, if it wasn't so serious it'd all be very entertaining. We've not seen a soap opera like it in politics in living memory. It's a pity that it's being carried out at such a critical time. Presumably the EU will delay their response while waiting to see whether the British offer is actually viable within the Conservative Party, let alone the country.
O/T: I was looking at the 7-day weather forecast arround the Thai caves - doesn't look too bad, with showers and the occasional thunnderstorm but no actual monsoon yet.
+1
I'd like to add that the rescue from the Thai caves seems quite incredible, and it'll be interesting to know how it's being done in detail. I hope the remaining nine people (and all the others in the caves helping them) get out safely before the real rains start.
As an aside, as a decided non-expert, it all seemed a little rushed, and I wonder what caused them to start extracting them so quickly. In my decidedly non-expert manner I thought they may have kept them in a little longer to feed them up and trained them.
According to the news, the imminent flooding of the caves from the monsoon rains is driving the pace. It's going to happen. The question is when.
Well, if it wasn't so serious it'd all be very entertaining. We've not seen a soap opera like it in politics in living memory. It's a pity that it's being carried out at such a critical time. Presumably the EU will delay their response while waiting to see whether the British offer is actually viable within the Conservative Party, let alone the country.
O/T: I was looking at the 7-day weather forecast arround the Thai caves - doesn't look too bad, with showers and the occasional thunnderstorm but no actual monsoon yet.
+1
I'd like to add that the rescue from the Thai caves seems quite incredible, and it'll be interesting to know how it's being done in detail. I hope the remaining nine people (and all the others in the caves helping them) get out safely before the real rains start.
As an aside, as a decided non-expert, it all seemed a little rushed, and I wonder what caused them to start extracting them so quickly. In my decidedly non-expert manner I thought they may have kept them in a little longer to feed them up and trained them.
Further flooding. The air pocket they are in is due to become a water pocket.
"Although the EU may not like the plan" is already getting up on the wrong side of the bed but in substance I'm sure the plan would work.
I recently had a moment in thinking technology could solve the problem. I was assured that was not possible. I don't think there would be anything wrong with a super smart solution such as the one you proposed (didn't go through every line and am no expert).
Let us see if they go for the solution you suggest. It seems a carve out from any other agreement but I suppose we need creative minds at the moment.
Technology cannot solve the NI border problem perfectly. But customs is not a perfect system - neither is the tax system. They are risk based approaches aimed at driving substantial (and certainly not perfect) compliance. The vast majority of non-EU imports are cleared in 5 minutes with no inspection.
In relation to NI, the solution to the GFA problem is that both sides accept that their JOINT responsibilities require them to accept a solution that is probably less perfect than a traditional border but that would do the job. Since such a small portion of UK/EU trade goes over this border it was always possible.
Brexit isn't a joint decision. Ireland has no responsibility to act against its interests in order to facilitate it. Sovereignty cuts both ways.
Then, they negotiate the CETA deal and put it up for a vote.
The deal you outlined is not negotiable with the EU, and in any case trade negotiations wouldn't start until after we leave and the backstop becomes part of an international treaty.
The ONLY part of the CETA deal that the EU have shown the slightest problem with relates to NI. The rest they have already said would be fine.
If May stood up to Barnier on this the EU would have conceded a MaxFac fudge on NI - the rest of the EU would never have gone for no deal over such a trivial matter.
It was negotiating blackmail used on a weak and stupid leader whose main adviser wanted to be blackmailed to force a soft Brexit. No wonder DD told her not to do it.
Well, if it wasn't so serious it'd all be very entertaining. We've not seen a soap opera like it in politics in living memory. It's a pity that it's being carried out at such a critical time. Presumably the EU will delay their response while waiting to see whether the British offer is actually viable within the Conservative Party, let alone the country.
O/T: I was looking at the 7-day weather forecast arround the Thai caves - doesn't look too bad, with showers and the occasional thunnderstorm but no actual monsoon yet.
+1
I'd like to add that the rescue from the Thai caves seems quite incredible, and it'll be interesting to know how it's being done in detail. I hope the remaining nine people (and all the others in the caves helping them) get out safely before the real rains start.
As an aside, as a decided non-expert, it all seemed a little rushed, and I wonder what caused them to start extracting them so quickly. In my decidedly non-expert manner I thought they may have kept them in a little longer to feed them up and trained them.
It was reported that water levels dropped unexpectedly so that it became possible to walk through part of the cave rather than having to swim.
In Japan, floods have just killed 100 people and it is possible this was a factor but I doubt anyone would admit it.
Well, if it wasn't so serious it'd all be very entertaining. We've not seen a soap opera like it in politics in living memory. It's a pity that it's being carried out at such a critical time. Presumably the EU will delay their response while waiting to see whether the British offer is actually viable within the Conservative Party, let alone the country.
O/T: I was looking at the 7-day weather forecast arround the Thai caves - doesn't look too bad, with showers and the occasional thunnderstorm but no actual monsoon yet.
+1
I'd like to add that the rescue from the Thai caves seems quite incredible, and it'll be interesting to know how it's being done in detail. I hope the remaining nine people (and all the others in the caves helping them) get out safely before the real rains start.
As an aside, as a decided non-expert, it all seemed a little rushed, and I wonder what caused them to start extracting them so quickly. In my decidedly non-expert manner I thought they may have kept them in a little longer to feed them up and trained them.
According to the news, the imminent flooding of the caves from the monsoon rains is driving the pace. It's going to happen. The question is when.
Thanks, and that might well be it. Although I do wonder if CO2 levels are a more imminent threat than the rains. In addition, the risk to the rescuers would increase as time went on as well.
Still, it's happening quicker than I expected (not that I'm complaining).
"What Brexit means now Amid the continued state of uncertainty, perhaps the only thing settled at Chequers was the fate of those Brexiteer ministers who decided to back the Leave campaign as a means of promoting their personal ambitions. If there were any who took this gamble, they will now be tearing up their betting slips. Despised by Remainers and now distrusted by the europhobic faithful, they are faced with an uphill struggle to regain credibility with any significant body of opinion." https://theconversation.com/brexiteers-outmanoeuvred-at-chequers-after-theresa-may-corrals-cabinet-before-brexit-secretary-resigns-99405
Then, they negotiate the CETA deal and put it up for a vote.
The deal you outlined is not negotiable with the EU, and in any case trade negotiations wouldn't start until after we leave and the backstop becomes part of an international treaty.
The ONLY part of the CETA deal that the EU have shown the slightest problem with relates to NI. The rest they have already said would be fine.
That's because the rest of what you wrote hasn't been presented to them. They see CETA as something like the Canadian agreement. You seem to see it as something like the Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relations agreement.
We're still waiting for Barnier to say 'non. His best response is to give cordial encouragement but emphasis there's a little more to do. Can he stop a bleat of triumph? We shall see.
Forget Brexit, I'll live with what comes, but I fear for the damage to democracy. The more fanatical Europhiles don't mind. To their minds, the referendum proved that true democracy wasn't fit for purpose, but even they must feel a sliver of unease.
It's amazing how seemingly rational people can convince themselves they are being democratic. It was why communist countries called themselves democratic in their title without a hint of embarrassment and why the LDs retain the 'democrat' label.
Victor Bogdanor stated that voter democracy trumps parliamentary democracy as the votes rolled in on June 24th. Seemingly he was wrong.
I lost my faith in politicians long ago. I suspect I'll have some new colleagues.
"Although the EU may not like the plan" is already getting up on the wrong side of the bed but in substance I'm sure the plan would work.
I recently had a moment in thinking technology could solve the problem. I was assured that was not possible. I don't think there would be anything wrong with a super smart solution such as the one you proposed (didn't go through every line and am no expert).
Let us see if they go for the solution you suggest. It seems a carve out from any other agreement but I suppose we need creative minds at the moment.
Technology cannot solve the NI border problem perfectly. But customs is not a perfect system - neither is the tax system. They are risk based approaches aimed at driving substantial (and certainly not perfect) compliance. The vast majority of non-EU imports are cleared in 5 minutes with no inspection.
In relation to NI, the solution to the GFA problem is that both sides accept that their JOINT responsibilities require them to accept a solution that is probably less perfect than a traditional border but that would do the job. Since such a small portion of UK/EU trade goes over this border it was always possible.
Brexit isn't a joint decision. Ireland has no responsibility to act against its interests in order to facilitate it. Sovereignty cuts both ways.
Ireland doesn't have much choice. This is what is so stupid about the debate. If the choice is CETA plus MaxFac or no deal (and the UK could force this choice), the NI border will be the same in BOTH outcomes. If there is no deal, both the UK and ROI will maintain an open border and use MaxFac to police it. Do you actually think ROI will build a border?
Ireland has no interests at stake. They get a soft border either way. They just wanted to become the EU's negotiating pawn because Varadkar thought it would make him popular.
Ireland doesn't have much choice. This is what is so stupid about the debate. If the choice is CETA plus MaxFac or no deal (and the UK could force this choice), the NI border will be the same in BOTH outcomes. If there is no deal, both the UK and ROI will maintain an open border and use MaxFac to police it. Do you actually think ROI will build a border?
Ireland has no interests at stake. They get a soft border either way. They just wanted to become the EU's negotiating pawn because Varadkar thought it would make him popular.
It turns out that Ireland does have choices and does have interests.
"Although the EU may not like the plan" is already getting up on the wrong side of the bed but in substance I'm sure the plan would work.
I recently had a moment in thinking technology could solve the problem. I was assured that was not possible. I don't think there would be anything wrong with a super smart solution such as the one you proposed (didn't go through every line and am no expert).
Let us see if they go for the solution you suggest. It seems a carve out from any other agreement but I suppose we need creative minds at the moment.
Technology cannot solve the NI border problem perfectly. But customs is not a perfect system - neither is the tax system. They are risk based approaches aimed at driving substantial (and certainly not perfect) compliance. The vast majority of non-EU imports are cleared in 5 minutes with no inspection.
In relation to NI, the solution to the GFA problem is that both sides accept that their JOINT responsibilities require them to accept a solution that is probably less perfect than a traditional border but that would do the job. Since such a small portion of UK/EU trade goes over this border it was always possible.
Trade is immaterial as I'm sure you are aware. It is all about the perception of infrastructure.
At a minimum I think it would require Varadkar to make a wholehearted endorsement of whatever proposal emerges.
Then, they negotiate the CETA deal and put it up for a vote.
The deal you outlined is not negotiable with the EU, and in any case trade negotiations wouldn't start until after we leave and the backstop becomes part of an international treaty.
The ONLY part of the CETA deal that the EU have shown the slightest problem with relates to NI. The rest they have already said would be fine.
That's because the rest of what you wrote hasn't been presented to them. They see CETA as something like the Canadian agreement. You seem to see it as something like the Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relations agreement.
I am happy with CETA as it is, adjusted for no tariffs and no quotas, which the EU will agree. Campbell-Bannerman did a high level mark up which showed how little would need to be changed to get it to work.
I think a streamlined customs regime makes sense for both sides but if they refuse, that is up to them. The UK will adapt to a bit of border friction. It will hurt them as well.
So CETA is quite deliverable, as Barnier's famous slide made clear. It is Remainers who offered the NI backstop that blocked this approach.
Well, if it wasn't so serious it'd all be very entertaining. We've not seen a soap opera like it in politics in living memory. It's a pity that it's being carried out at such a critical time. Presumably the EU will delay their response while waiting to see whether the British offer is actually viable within the Conservative Party, let alone the country.
O/T: I was looking at the 7-day weather forecast arround the Thai caves - doesn't look too bad, with showers and the occasional thunnderstorm but no actual monsoon yet.
+1
I'd like to add that the rescue from the Thai caves seems quite incredible, and it'll be interesting to know how it's being done in detail. I hope the remaining nine people (and all the others in the caves helping them) get out safely before the real rains start.
As an aside, as a decided non-expert, it all seemed a little rushed, and I wonder what caused them to start extracting them so quickly. In my decidedly non-expert manner I thought they may have kept them in a little longer to feed them up and trained them.
Further flooding. The air pocket they are in is due to become a water pocket.
I gather it's now raining hard at the site (contrary to my earlier post). My understanding is that the ledge where they're perched is expected to be safe from flooding even during the monsoon, but access through to them would be cut off until October, which is a long time to wait it out despite the supplies that have been brought in. It's clearly a choice of evils, but trying to get them all out before that happens may well be the lesser evil, accepting that there are risks either way.
The secondary problem is oxygen and the risk of CO2 poisoning in the cave - presumably if it almost fills up that reduces the air available? The ground above is chalk, which makes it probably impossible to seal properly (though they're trying) but perhaps also allows some air to filter through? But I really don't know much about this stuff. There must be a PBer who can offer some informed advice...?
Then, they negotiate the CETA deal and put it up for a vote.
The deal you outlined is not negotiable with the EU, and in any case trade negotiations wouldn't start until after we leave and the backstop becomes part of an international treaty.
The ONLY part of the CETA deal that the EU have shown the slightest problem with relates to NI. The rest they have already said would be fine.
That's because the rest of what you wrote hasn't been presented to them. They see CETA as something like the Canadian agreement. You seem to see it as something like the Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relations agreement.
I am happy with CETA as it is, adjusted for no tariffs and no quotas, which the EU will agree. Campbell-Bannerman did a high level mark up which showed how little would need to be changed to get it to work.
I think a streamlined customs regime makes sense for both sides but if they refuse, that is up to them. The UK will adapt to a bit of border friction. It will hurt them as well.
So CETA is quite deliverable, as Barnier's famous slide made clear. It is Remainers who offered the NI backstop that blocked this approach.
CETA is deliverable (with a long transition) but not for the whole UK. Just accept that the Brexit you want is not compatible with the union and then it would be possible to have a much more rational discussion about it.
"Although the EU may not like the plan" is already getting up on the wrong side of the bed but in substance I'm sure the plan would work.
I recently had a moment in thinking technology could solve the problem. I was assured that was not possible. I don't think there would be anything wrong with a super smart solution such as the one you proposed (didn't go through every line and am no expert).
Let us see if they go for the solution you suggest. It seems a carve out from any other agreement but I suppose we need creative minds at the moment.
Technology cannot solve the NI border problem perfectly. But customs is not a perfect system - neither is the tax system. They are risk based approaches aimed at driving substantial (and certainly not perfect) compliance. The vast majority of non-EU imports are cleared in 5 minutes with no inspection.
In relation to NI, the solution to the GFA problem is that both sides accept that their JOINT responsibilities require them to accept a solution that is probably less perfect than a traditional border but that would do the job. Since such a small portion of UK/EU trade goes over this border it was always possible.
Agreed. There are technology-based borders elsewhere, most notably between the USA and Canada where a physical border is difficult. Both sides accept its not perfect but it’s much better than the alternatives.
The NI border is a huge EU bluff and it looks like we are folding the whole deal in response. We need to call them on it and say clearly that there will be no border on our side. We then need to raise - they can either co-operate on the technological solution or try and build a fence across Ireland. Their call.
“Creating an exit plan that makes sense and which all reasonable people could unite around seems an almost insuperable task.” Win the referendum first, then decide what to do with your victory. “There is much to be gained by swerving the whole issue,” Mr Cummings wrote, because “the sheer complexity of leaving would involve endless questions of detail that cannot be answered in such a place even were it to be 20,000 pages long, and the longer it is the more errors are likely.” He had a point there.
No wonder the Leavers decided that, actually, a blank piece of paper would suffice. The business of creating a plausible plan would be left to some other poor schmuck. The important thing was to Leave, the rest was mere detail.
You are entitled to feel cheated by this, to feel that the country deserved something a little better than this cavalier insouciance. The Brexiteers have had two years to produce something workable and have come up with less than nothing. It turns out that making it up as you go along comes with some strings and costs attached.
Yes but it is a bit late for the Prime Minister to hit a brick wall before wondering if Nigel Farage was in fact just a golf club bore who got lucky, if Boris was an opportunistic chancer or Davis and Fox out of their depths.
David Cameron should have set up some sort of commission to establish the shape of Brexit before the referendum (and to put that proposal on the ballot) and Theresa May should have done the same before triggering Article 50.
That would have taken time and Cameron wanted the referendum out of the way as quickly as possible so he could get the party ready for 2020.
I was talking to another dad at a playgroup yesterday. He is a massive England fan, and has a rather difficult and sometimes risky relatively low-paid job. He said that he hopes we win the World Cup, but our success so far has made him feel proud of being English for the first time in ages.
I wonder how much any WC success would affect political stances?
(He has two England flags hanging out of his windows. In my street, just a couple of minutes walk away, a house has a french tricolore hanging off the door.)
The intelligentsia consider one to be the height of chavism and the other is oh so tres chic.
Mr. Alistair, the migrant crisis was very much on the public eye. Cameron may have feared that dominating things, hence the slightly earlier than necessary referendum.
Still trying to work out if we'll end up with a second referendum or not.
Kier Starmer handing John Humphrys his arse in a bag on Today.
Or vice versa......how many Front Bench resignations has Jeremy Corbyn had?
And if Jeremy Corbyn were negotiating Brexit, it might even matter but he isn't and it doesn't. The impotence of opposition! Jeremy Corbyn has shown the wisdom of Solomon in opposing Tory Brexit rather than Brexit itself.
Well, if it wasn't so serious it'd all be very entertaining. We've not seen a soap opera like it in politics in living memory. It's a pity that it's being carried out at such a critical time. Presumably the EU will delay their response while waiting to see whether the British offer is actually viable within the Conservative Party, let alone the country.
O/T: I was looking at the 7-day weather forecast arround the Thai caves - doesn't look too bad, with showers and the occasional thunnderstorm but no actual monsoon yet.
+1
I'd like to add that the rescue from the Thai caves seems quite incredible, and it'll be interesting to know how it's being done in detail. I hope the remaining nine people (and all the others in the caves helping them) get out safely before the real rains start.
As an aside, as a decided non-expert, it all seemed a little rushed, and I wonder what caused them to start extracting them so quickly. In my decidedly non-expert manner I thought they may have kept them in a little longer to feed them up and trained them.
According to the news, the imminent flooding of the caves from the monsoon rains is driving the pace. It's going to happen. The question is when.
Thanks, and that might well be it. Although I do wonder if CO2 levels are a more imminent threat than the rains. In addition, the risk to the rescuers would increase as time went on as well.
Still, it's happening quicker than I expected (not that I'm complaining).
(Edit for stupidity)
Massive props to all involved in this, militaries, professionals and a whole lot of volunteers from around the world. Everything crossed that their operation continues to go well.
Well, if it wasn't so serious it'd all be very entertaining. We've not seen a soap opera like it in politics in living memory. It's a pity that it's being carried out at such a critical time. Presumably the EU will delay their response while waiting to see whether the British offer is actually viable within the Conservative Party, let alone the country.
O/T: I was looking at the 7-day weather forecast arround the Thai caves - doesn't look too bad, with showers and the occasional thunnderstorm but no actual monsoon yet.
Do you now regret sniggering at the at the final ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, knowing that Cameron had committed to a "no if not but" to a referendum on it? what was the question you asked? "what you going to do now Mr Cameron?"
That might be a paraphrase of your exact question, but correct me if I'm wrong. The source of the 2016 referendum can be traced directly to the Lisbon Treaty.
Well, if it wasn't so serious it'd all be very entertaining. We've not seen a soap opera like it in politics in living memory. It's a pity that it's being carried out at such a critical time. Presumably the EU will delay their response while waiting to see whether the British offer is actually viable within the Conservative Party, let alone the country.
O/T: I was looking at the 7-day weather forecast arround the Thai caves - doesn't look too bad, with showers and the occasional thunnderstorm but no actual monsoon yet.
+1
I'd like to add that the rescue from the Thai caves seems quite incredible, and it'll be interesting to know how it's being done in detail. I hope the remaining nine people (and all the others in the caves helping them) get out safely before the real rains start.
As an aside, as a decided non-expert, it all seemed a little rushed, and I wonder what caused them to start extracting them so quickly. In my decidedly non-expert manner I thought they may have kept them in a little longer to feed them up and trained them.
Further flooding. The air pocket they are in is due to become a water pocket.
I gather it's now raining hard at the site (contrary to my earlier post). My understanding is that the ledge where they're perched is expected to be safe from flooding even during the monsoon, but access through to them would be cut off until October, which is a long time to wait it out despite the supplies that have been brought in. It's clearly a choice of evils, but trying to get them all out before that happens may well be the lesser evil, accepting that there are risks either way.
The secondary problem is oxygen and the risk of CO2 poisoning in the cave - presumably if it almost fills up that reduces the air available? The ground above is chalk, which makes it probably impossible to seal properly (though they're trying) but perhaps also allows some air to filter through? But I really don't know much about this stuff. There must be a PBer who can offer some informed advice...?
Yes we're all working off news reports and interviews.
My understanding was that they couldn't be sure that the area they are in won't fill up with water.
We're still waiting for Barnier to say 'non. His best response is to give cordial encouragement but emphasis there's a little more to do. Can he stop a bleat of triumph? We shall see.
Forget Brexit, I'll live with what comes, but I fear for the damage to democracy. The more fanatical Europhiles don't mind. To their minds, the referendum proved that true democracy wasn't fit for purpose, but even they must feel a sliver of unease.
It's amazing how seemingly rational people can convince themselves they are being democratic. It was why communist countries called themselves democratic in their title without a hint of embarrassment and why the LDs retain the 'democrat' label.
Victor Bogdanor stated that voter democracy trumps parliamentary democracy as the votes rolled in on June 24th. Seemingly he was wrong.
I lost my faith in politicians long ago. I suspect I'll have some new colleagues.
I don't think this is an assault on democracy but proof that the country were asked a stupid question that they didnt understand which they interpreted in any way they chose and what has happened subsequently has just been proof of how stupid the question and answer were. The EU has been our system of government for nearlty half a century. Not liking immigrants is not even the tip of the iceberg of those 50 years and cant be answered in one word
I think that depends: how scared is JRM about Hammond ending up PM and how scared is Kenneth Clarke about JRM making it to Number 10? There are a lot of non ERG leavers who just want the whole thing over and done with, and fear that a leadership contest could end up jeopardizing the government and therefore Brexit itself.
My personal view is that Davis has just given the EU an excuse to reject the deal. I.e.: "look the UK government doesn't even believe in it, come back when you've decided."
Agreed. I suspect the ultras may now go for it and the resultant instability and disunity could easily lead to a GE. A JC Government becomes the most likely outcome. Hello Venezuela. Never has the role of moderate Labour MPs been more important. A disaster for the UK now beckons.
There was no general election for almost 2 years when Thatcher went or almost 3 years when Blair went.
No poll currently puts Corbyn anywhere near a majority even if there is one. If he does become PM it will only be by being propped up by minor parties and at the mercy of his backbenchers.
Of course Mexico now has joined Venezuela and Greece with populist leftists heading their government so it is not something completely unusual at the moment
I'm afraid your reliance on sub-samples will not be sufficient to save a divided party from the wrath of the electorate.
Indeed. It is absurd to rely on polling conducted before the tories just went into open warfare as well. Things are no longer the same as 2017, or even last week. Now the tories are at each others throats. Half those happy now have this notion that people who praised the deal can now oppose it without consequence which is also silly.
May is bad, it is true, but if people wanted a deal she was at least trying for one. It will be interesting to see which challengers admit they don't want one, or if they pretend there's time to try something new.
IF the Leavers can unseat May and replace her (not saying they can) they can get a CETA deal through Parliament. The Govt can ignore any directions passed by Parliament (eg CU votes) and simply say that if Parliament doesn't like it then pass a vote of no confidence. Parliament cannot direct the Executive on how to negotiate.
Then, they negotiate the CETA deal and put it up for a vote. Tory Remainers will vote for it, because the alternative is no deal and they campaigned for it anyway. The DUP and Lab Leavers will vote for it. Problem solved.
The old line that Parliament does not have a majority for hard Brexit is just that - a line.
With respect you are talking nonsense.
The hard Brexiteers do not have the numbers and Parliament will decide and will not allow a hard Brexit. Your couldn't care less attitude to tens of thousands of jobs is just unacceptable as you jeopodise 40,000 Airbus jobs and tens of thousands in the supply chain. Airbus CEO has written to all their employees (I have seen the letter) and they are very worried and right now will do everything to ensure their future and even campaign to stay in the EU, as indeed will their Unions
You may think the game has changed and it has, but not in the way you think.
I have no idea what will happen to TM but as a conservative member I will fight for sanity and business friendly policies and will totally resist the hard Brexiteers.
I think that depends: how scared is JRM about Hammond ending up PM and how scared is Kenneth Clarke about JRM making it to Number 10? There are a lot of non ERG leavers who just want the whole thing over and done with, and fear that a leadership contest could end up jeopardizing the government and therefore Brexit itself.
My personal view is that Davis has just given the EU an excuse to reject the deal. I.e.: "look the UK government doesn't even believe in it, come back when you've decided."
Agreed. I suspect the ultras may now go for it and the resultant instability and disunity could easily lead to a GE. A JC Government becomes the most likely outcome. Hello Venezuela. Never has the role of moderate Labour MPs been more important. A disaster for the UK now beckons.
There was no general election for almost 2 years when Thatcher went or almost 3 years when Blair went.
No poll currently puts Corbyn anywhere near a majority even if there is one. If he does become PM it will only be by being propped up by minor parties and at the mercy of his backbenchers.
Of course Mexico now has joined Venezuela and Greece with populist leftists heading their government so it is not something completely unusual at the moment
I'm afraid your reliance on sub-samples will not be sufficient to save a divided party from the wrath of the electorate.
Indeed. It is absurd to rely on polling conducted before the tories just went into open warfare as well. Things are no longer the same as 2017, or even last week. Now the tories are at each others throats. Half those happy now have this notion that people who praised the deal can now oppose it without consequence which is also silly.
May is bad, it is true, but if people wanted a deal she was at least trying for one. It will be interesting to see which challengers admit they don't want one, or if they pretend there's time to try something new.
The Tories have been at each others' throats all my adult life.
I think that depends: how scared is JRM about Hammond ending up PM and how scared is Kenneth Clarke about JRM making it to Number 10? There are a lot of non ERG leavers who just want the whole thing over and done with, and fear that a leadership contest could end up jeopardizing the government and therefore Brexit itself.
My personal view is that Davis has just given the EU an excuse to reject the deal. I.e.: "look the UK government doesn't even believe in it, come back when you've decided."
Fair play to Davis, at least one of the Brexiteers has some balls.
May’s toast. What finished her is the bloody difficult woman tag. I lived through the seventies and eighties, and she ain’t no Thatcher. May is nothing. The embarrassing way she and her team have tried to,spin her as tough leader over the weekend just brings home to everyone of her MPs that she is not PM materiel, hasn’t been from the moment she got the job. When did she demonstrate any command of detail? Three key elections in three years, what campaigning immpression did she leave on them? What are her core beliefs she returns to to avoid just blowing in the wind on a day to day basis? If you are going to be a bloody difficult woman you have to be bloody good at it, tell a minister they are moving in a reshuffle they move, not tell you otherwise and stay put. You have to Turn up to leader debates and tough grillings, and stamp yourself and your policy on it. If you don’t lead like that, you are not leading at all. Her ministers are unsackable becuase she’s too weak to sack or even control them now. Whatever their persuasion on Brexit, whatever wing of the party they are from, this week the tory MPs will vote on the fact this government needs to negoatiate robustly with the EU now, strong on detail and sense of direction, which they all know they won’t get if May limps on. For the nations sake They cannot vote negatively this time just to block someone else, they need to crown a PM whose grasp of detail is priministerial standard.
It has to be Gove. When PM next week, Gove will move/sack Hammond. To extinguish memory of May’s “Turd Way” and get down to proper, robust Brexit negotiations with EU requires brexiteer PM and Chancellor. Regardless what he said of it over the weekend, Gove and his cabinet will be happy todrop May’s “Turd Way” into nearest bin the moment EU publicly reject it.
God help us it that horrible little weasel Gove ever gets control, a nastier , sneakier , back stabbing turncoat you will never find
I believe the Prime Minister is a cricketing enthusiast so I hope there will be no monopoly of cricketing metaphors. It’s rather like sending our opening batsmen to the crease only for them to find that before the first ball is bowled, their bats have been broken by the team captain. The time has come for others to consider their own response to the tragic conflict of loyalties with which I have myself wrestled for perhaps too long.
It is unfortunate that one of the most significant political speeches of our time makes no sense whatsoever. If the batsmen can tell their bats are broken before a ball has been bowled, then how on earth did they get as far as the crease or even the pavilion steps without noticing?
Lol. Quite so. I still see nothing in Davis's letter to justify why he waited to resign after permitting the news to go out that cabinet agreed. He lists issues going way back. Either hes a fool or he woukd have stayed on had the reaction not been so negative.
If a no deal supporter wins then no member if the current cabinet should be kept on. It's a matter of principal
Whatever the outcome this is going to end up as a right pickle for Ruth Davidson.
Either she has to sell soft Brexit to her hard Brexit voter base or she gets a hard Brexite PM and has to tour the talk shows trying to justify her positions in a hard Brexiters party and what that means....
Sorry, I entertained the thought that Ruth might actually face some tough questioning by political journalists there for a moment.
Has she not retired, not a peep from her for months.
So basically this is just uninspired guesswork. Theresa May has not already made an announcement so after nine is a fair bet, and then three names are plucked out of the air. Thanks, Beth.
I'm afraid that the childish nonsense about forcing Ministers who don't like to get taxis and walk the driveway has rather come home to roost. May seems to surround herself with people who think the Thick of It is a documentary but who unfortunately have far less ability than Malcolm Tucker. It is the passive aggressive mindset of the Home Office brought to number 10.
Davis is in himself no great loss to the government but failing to keep him on board does risk serious trouble for May. She made a serious mistake agreeing the back stop provisions last December. It was a gamble that a better overall deal would be found in time but it has been used to undermine our negotiating position yet further. The proposal she wants to put forward is deeply underwhelming but it may be a realistic assessment of what is possible based on her Head of State discussions at the Summit. Once again though, as with the failed election campaign, there is a chronic shortage of leadership and a total absence of inspiration.
The situation in NI means that she could not have not agreed to the backstop.
Even the token (presumably lefty) comedian on Pienaar yesterday realised that.
Why? Arlene Foster didn't want it. She was right. May signed up to a deal which she now says no British PM could ever sign up to. She basically gave up sovereignty to a chunk of the UK. It is so bad that we have to sign almost any deal with the EU to get around it. That is what the contortions of the proposal agreed at cabinet are about.
Because NI is not some academic issue to be solved on paper with one theoretical course of action to say "sod it let's put up a border".
It was a source of death and destruction for decades and remains hugely sensitive affecting people on both sides of the border and peace has been dearly won. No British PM could ever put that at risk.
Does that mean we can never leave the EU? Of course not. But it does mean that the implications and restrictions on the type of leaving we would have been and now seemingly are doing should have been made clear.
Oh wait I think that might have been mentioned but was deemed part of Project Fear.
So we are to be held to ransom by a bunch of gangsters and drug dealers who just might go back to the habit of setting off a bomb now and again?
The Tory cabinet is not quite that bad David,, very close mind you.
The bastards bluff has been called and then there were nine.....
What a pathetic lilly livered bunch the Tory cabinet are. The only thing that is saving their miserable government is Corbyn. Time to abandon Brexit once and for all.
Do you not feel the result of the referendum should be respected in any way? Even in the softest of soft brexits such as single market membership? We are not some tin pot nation that can just ignore something so large and so important. We could fudge it, but not ignore it. We dont do that.
One thing I won't blame may for are these resignations. Those who think her actions precipitated them unnecessarily are rather over looking that she has kicked the can down the road for far too long already, achieving nothing and focusing on keeping the party united.
Buy on this issue agreement isn't possible. Endless fudged wordings could not fix the problems. It is time they fight, face the music, and the losers either get behind the winner or split. Big tents are great, but at some point of people persist in disruption it is better for them to be outside pissing in.
Of course actions have consequences. And of course Cabinet Ministers should be bound by collective responsibility once a decision is made. And of course they should resign if they feel they can't do that. But threatening to take peoples' cars away before they get back to London? It was pathetic.
It was one of the most stupid things I have ever seen in politics. At the end of the day Leavers won the referendum and believe that they have a right to a genuine Brexit. May was making a major move away from what she had previously agreed. Even if you feel as PM you have no choice but to embark on that route, you show respect for the people you know feel strongly and do not agree. Instead, she tried to ram the turd up their arses. As JRM said, it was a serious error of judgement.
Genuine Brexit?
The referendum asked if we wanted to leave the EU, it said nothing about the future relationship with the EU.
BINO is still Brexit.
Have the events of the last 48 hours not proven that this is clearly not the case, nor the view of the overwhelming majority of conservative members?
Who cares what Conservative members think - as you always remind us, Brexit is the Will Of The People. BINO may not appease Tory members but it doesn’t contradict the referendum result.
Whatever the outcome this is going to end up as a right pickle for Ruth Davidson.
Either she has to sell soft Brexit to her hard Brexit voter base or she gets a hard Brexite PM and has to tour the talk shows trying to justify her positions in a hard Brexiters party and what that means....
Sorry, I entertained the thought that Ruth might actually face some tough questioning by political journalists there for a moment.
Has she not retired, not a peep from her for months.
That's more to do with how Scottish regional politics rarely pops onto the horizon. She is pregnant as well is she not?
Next BREXIT Cabinet Minister annoucement sometime just after 9:00am - Sky News
Poison chalice to :
1. Alastair Meeks 2. Peter Bone 3. Anna Soubry 4. A former MP for Broxtowe 5. Nick Clegg 6. IDS 7. Mike Smithson 8. Harry Kane 9. A distinguished Scottish peer of unimpeachable talent and modesty.
I'm afraid that the childish nonsense about forcing Ministers who don't like to get taxis and walk the driveway has rather come home to roost. May seems to surround herself with people who think the Thick of It is a documentary but who unfortunately have far less ability than Malcolm Tucker. It is the passive aggressive mindset of the Home Office brought to number 10.
Davis is in himself no great loss to the government but failing to keep him on board does risk serious trouble for May. She made a serious mistake agreeing the back stop provisions last December. It was a gamble that a better overall deal would be found in time but it has been used to undermine our negotiating position yet further. The proposal she wants to put forward is deeply underwhelming but it may be a realistic assessment of what is possible based on her Head of State discussions at the Summit. Once again though, as with the failed election campaign, there is a chronic shortage of leadership and a total absence of inspiration.
The situation in NI means that she could not have not agreed to the backstop.
Even the token (presumably lefty) comedian on Pienaar yesterday realised that.
Why? Arlene Foster didn't want it. She was right. May signed up to a deal which she now says no British PM could ever sign up to. She basically gave up sovereignty to a chunk of the UK. It is so bad that we have to sign almost any deal with the EU to get around it. That is what the contortions of the proposal agreed at cabinet are about.
Because NI is not some academic issue to be solved on paper with one theoretical course of action to say "sod it let's put up a border".
It was a source of death and destruction for decades and remains hugely sensitive affecting people on both sides of the border and peace has been dearly won. No British PM could ever put that at risk.
Does that mean we can never leave the EU? Of course not. But it does mean that the implications and restrictions on the type of leaving we would have been and now seemingly are doing should have been made clear.
Oh wait I think that might have been mentioned but was deemed part of Project Fear.
So we are to be held to ransom by a bunch of gangsters and drug dealers who just might go back to the habit of setting off a bomb now and again?
The Tory cabinet is not quite that bad David,, very close mind you.
"Parliament will decide and will not allow a hard Brexit." It will only allow its own version of Brexit and that is BINO. Why did they then vote for a referendum for the people to decide.
Mr Roger,
The essence of democracy is that the voice of the voters is heard and acted upon. That Bogdanor quote? Obviously, he knows nothing.
But I will concede defeat. Only a certain sort of democracy is allowed. I will miss the walk to the ballot box a little. Unless we get a candidate who doesn't pretend.
That Trump, for instance, he's certifiably barmy, but at least, he's honest.
I'm afraid that the childish nonsense about forcing Ministers who don't like to get taxis and walk the driveway has rather come home to roost. May seems to surround herself with people who think the Thick of It is a documentary but who unfortunately have far less ability than Malcolm Tucker. It is the passive aggressive mindset of the Home Office brought to number 10.
Davis is in himself no great loss to the government but failing to keep him on board does risk serious trouble for May. She made a serious mistake agreeing the back stop provisions last December. It was a gamble that a better overall deal would be found in time but it has been used to undermine our negotiating position yet further. The proposal she wants to put forward is deeply underwhelming but it may be a realistic assessment of what is possible based on her Head of State discussions at the Summit. Once again though, as with the failed election campaign, there is a chronic shortage of leadership and a total absence of inspiration.
I know you should generally assume stupidity over malice but I think I'd look at it the other way: The whole point of that exercise was to trigger resignations and get the leadership challenge over and done with, so that TMay will have a clear run to negotiate terms of surrender reach a win-win deal with her European partners that may infringe somewhat on her red lines.
The thing about the taxis was almost set up as if to tempt a photo-op: Departing minister laces up his walking boots, hikes off stoically through the English countryside...
And that would have helped the government how, precisely? Stupidity doesn't even begin to cover it. Its macho posturing by the team that lost a majority by similar hubris and arrogance but who seemed to have learned nothing.
I have to disagree with you on this. All the government was saying was that actions have consequences; something many leavers (and especially hardcore Brexiteers) seem to forget.
Of course actions have consequences. And of course Cabinet Ministers should be bound by collective responsibility once a decision is made. And of course they should resign if they feel they can't do that. But threatening to take peoples' cars away before they get back to London? It was pathetic.
No, it wasn't.
(Cue: 'oh, yes it was!')
Shows the caliber of the bunch of tossers, they put a car before principles and morals. Where are the tumbrils.
Obituary for David Davis. He was the only Leaver who tried to make Brexit work.
Like every other prominent Brexiteer Davis had years to learn how the EU works, about EU supply chains, about how integrated goods and services are, about the complexities of the Irish border, about what drives FTAs, and so on. If he had he might have been able to develop a realistic plan for leaving. But like the rest of them he couldn’t be bothered to do it. It was too much like hard work. So, instead he thought we could do trade deals with individual EU member states, that the UK held all the negotiating aces, that in leaving we would keep all of the benefits of membership with none of the downsides and that German car manufacturers would save the day. Basically, like the rest of them, he was utterly clueless. He winged it for two years and has now flown away. But there is no escaping the responsibility he has for where we are now. Like the rest of those who never did the hard yards, he owns this and will answer to posterity for it.
More lies. DD said what he wanted - CETA plus plus plus. Perfectly achievable. May sabotaged this by agreeing to the NI backstop. Read DDs letter - he says quite clearly that he told her not to do it.
As soon as the backstop was agreed, it was always going to be used as a tactic to force us away from CETA and towards vassal state bondage. I was 100% against the backstop the moment it was announced. I recall you were for May's Christmas deal.
Stop blaming Leavers for the decisions of Remainers.
Davis thought he could make Brexit work but gave up. The other Leavers didn't bother trying.
He gave up because May and Robbins were following their plan, not his, since September 2017. He tried his best but they wouldn't listen. What exactly do you think the Leavers should have done when a Remainer was running the show? The only answer is they should have probably resigned earlier.
Precisely. If this whole time we've been going in the wrong direction he should have acted sooner. It's the same reason I won't believe Boris when he jumps - they had the ability to force a challenge, and have waited too long to do much if they succeed.
I get that the Irish question is convenient for Remainers/soft Brexiters but to my mind it is much more likely to provoke English nationalism than the West Lothian Question ever was.
The Brexiters are rightly criticised for just focusing on winning the referendum and not having a plan. But what is the long term strategy for those who believe in Remain/BINO? That the country will unite around their vision? They don't care what the other half think?
Bluntly English voters cared about Northern Ireland when you had terrorists bombing the mainland. You had politicians like Trimble and Hume who were trying to bring about peace. Now you have the domincance of the DUP and Sinn Fein. Northern Ireland consumes a large public subsidy and I fail to see why the English will be happy to keep this going in the long term for a place that seems so alien and uninvestable because people don't get on with their neighbours. Soft Brexit won't even begin to solve our problems.
Next BREXIT Cabinet Minister annoucement sometime just after 9:00am - Sky News
Poison chalice to :
1. Alastair Meeks 2. Peter Bone 3. Anna Soubry 4. A former MP for Broxtowe 5. Nick Clegg 6. IDS 7. Mike Smithson 8. Harry Kane 9. A distinguished Scottish peer of unimpeachable talent and modesty.
Comments
If everyone who voted Leave in June 2016 knew what they had voted for beyond leaving the EU this would not be possible.
What a pathetic lilly livered bunch the Tory cabinet are. The only thing that is saving their miserable government is Corbyn. Time to abandon Brexit once and for all.
Fuck off.
"Although the EU may not like the plan" is already getting up on the wrong side of the bed but in substance I'm sure the plan would work.
I recently had a moment in thinking technology could solve the problem. I was assured that was not possible. I don't think there would be anything wrong with a super smart solution such as the one you proposed (didn't go through every line and am no expert).
Let us see if they go for the solution you suggest. It seems a carve out from any other agreement but I suppose we need creative minds at the moment.
IF the Leavers can unseat May and replace her (not saying they can) they can get a CETA deal through Parliament. The Govt can ignore any directions passed by Parliament (eg CU votes) and simply say that if Parliament doesn't like it then pass a vote of no confidence. Parliament cannot direct the Executive on how to negotiate.
Then, they negotiate the CETA deal and put it up for a vote. Tory Remainers will vote for it, because the alternative is no deal and they campaigned for it anyway. The DUP and Lab Leavers will vote for it. Problem solved.
The old line that Parliament does not have a majority for hard Brexit is just that - a line.
I'd like to add that the rescue from the Thai caves seems quite incredible, and it'll be interesting to know how it's being done in detail. I hope the remaining nine people (and all the others in the caves helping them) get out safely before the real rains start.
As an aside, as a decided non-expert, it all seemed a little rushed, and I wonder what caused them to start extracting them so quickly. In my decidedly non-expert manner I thought they may have kept them in a little longer to feed them up and trained them.
Got to say, I was surprised to see Davis (and, seemingly, his junior ministers) resigned.
David Cameron should have set up some sort of commission to establish the shape of Brexit before the referendum (and to put that proposal on the ballot) and Theresa May should have done the same before triggering Article 50.
(Cue: 'oh, yes it was!')
In relation to NI, the solution to the GFA problem is that both sides accept that their JOINT responsibilities require them to accept a solution that is probably less perfect than a traditional border but that would do the job. Since such a small portion of UK/EU trade goes over this border it was always possible.
If May stood up to Barnier on this the EU would have conceded a MaxFac fudge on NI - the rest of the EU would never have gone for no deal over such a trivial matter.
It was negotiating blackmail used on a weak and stupid leader whose main adviser wanted to be blackmailed to force a soft Brexit. No wonder DD told her not to do it.
In Japan, floods have just killed 100 people and it is possible this was a factor but I doubt anyone would admit it.
Still, it's happening quicker than I expected (not that I'm complaining).
(Edit for stupidity)
Amid the continued state of uncertainty, perhaps the only thing settled at Chequers was the fate of those Brexiteer ministers who decided to back the Leave campaign as a means of promoting their personal ambitions. If there were any who took this gamble, they will now be tearing up their betting slips. Despised by Remainers and now distrusted by the europhobic faithful, they are faced with an uphill struggle to regain credibility with any significant body of opinion."
https://theconversation.com/brexiteers-outmanoeuvred-at-chequers-after-theresa-may-corrals-cabinet-before-brexit-secretary-resigns-99405
Who could they possibly mean?
Forget Brexit, I'll live with what comes, but I fear for the damage to democracy. The more fanatical Europhiles don't mind. To their minds, the referendum proved that true democracy wasn't fit for purpose, but even they must feel a sliver of unease.
It's amazing how seemingly rational people can convince themselves they are being democratic. It was why communist countries called themselves democratic in their title without a hint of embarrassment and why the LDs retain the 'democrat' label.
Victor Bogdanor stated that voter democracy trumps parliamentary democracy as the votes rolled in on June 24th. Seemingly he was wrong.
I lost my faith in politicians long ago. I suspect I'll have some new colleagues.
Ireland has no interests at stake. They get a soft border either way. They just wanted to become the EU's negotiating pawn because Varadkar thought it would make him popular.
At a minimum I think it would require Varadkar to make a wholehearted endorsement of whatever proposal emerges.
Perhaps Gerry Adams also.
I think a streamlined customs regime makes sense for both sides but if they refuse, that is up to them. The UK will adapt to a bit of border friction. It will hurt them as well.
So CETA is quite deliverable, as Barnier's famous slide made clear. It is Remainers who offered the NI backstop that blocked this approach.
The secondary problem is oxygen and the risk of CO2 poisoning in the cave - presumably if it almost fills up that reduces the air available? The ground above is chalk, which makes it probably impossible to seal properly (though they're trying) but perhaps also allows some air to filter through? But I really don't know much about this stuff. There must be a PBer who can offer some informed advice...?
The NI border is a huge EU bluff and it looks like we are folding the whole deal in response. We need to call them on it and say clearly that there will be no border on our side. We then need to raise - they can either co-operate on the technological solution or try and build a fence across Ireland. Their call.
Party before country.
Still trying to work out if we'll end up with a second referendum or not.
That might be a paraphrase of your exact question, but correct me if I'm wrong. The source of the 2016 referendum can be traced directly to the Lisbon Treaty.
My understanding was that they couldn't be sure that the area they are in won't fill up with water.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1016210792180568065
May is bad, it is true, but if people wanted a deal she was at least trying for one. It will be interesting to see which challengers admit they don't want one, or if they pretend there's time to try something new.
The hard Brexiteers do not have the numbers and Parliament will decide and will not allow a hard Brexit. Your couldn't care less attitude to tens of thousands of jobs is just unacceptable as you jeopodise 40,000 Airbus jobs and tens of thousands in the supply chain. Airbus CEO has written to all their employees (I have seen the letter) and they are very worried and right now will do everything to ensure their future and even campaign to stay in the EU, as indeed will their Unions
You may think the game has changed and it has, but not in the way you think.
I have no idea what will happen to TM but as a conservative member I will fight for sanity and business friendly policies and will totally resist the hard Brexiteers.
If a no deal supporter wins then no member if the current cabinet should be kept on. It's a matter of principal
Buy on this issue agreement isn't possible. Endless fudged wordings could not fix the problems. It is time they fight, face the music, and the losers either get behind the winner or split. Big tents are great, but at some point of people persist in disruption it is better for them to be outside pissing in.
Poison chalice to :
1. Alastair Meeks
2. Peter Bone
3. Anna Soubry
4. A former MP for Broxtowe
5. Nick Clegg
6. IDS
7. Mike Smithson
8. Harry Kane
9. A distinguished Scottish peer of unimpeachable talent and modesty.
The Govt is weak, the opposition weaker.
"Parliament will decide and will not allow a hard Brexit." It will only allow its own version of Brexit and that is BINO. Why did they then vote for a referendum for the people to decide.
Mr Roger,
The essence of democracy is that the voice of the voters is heard and acted upon. That Bogdanor quote? Obviously, he knows nothing.
But I will concede defeat. Only a certain sort of democracy is allowed. I will miss the walk to the ballot box a little. Unless we get a candidate who doesn't pretend.
That Trump, for instance, he's certifiably barmy, but at least, he's honest.
I think the voters were bonkers, but that's democracy in action.
Seems we are to have a lively start to the week!
The Brexiters are rightly criticised for just focusing on winning the referendum and not having a plan. But what is the long term strategy for those who believe in Remain/BINO? That the country will unite around their vision? They don't care what the other half think?
Bluntly English voters cared about Northern Ireland when you had terrorists bombing the mainland. You had politicians like Trimble and Hume who were trying to bring about peace. Now you have the domincance of the DUP and Sinn Fein. Northern Ireland consumes a large public subsidy and I fail to see why the English will be happy to keep this going in the long term for a place that seems so alien and uninvestable because people don't get on with their neighbours. Soft Brexit won't even begin to solve our problems.