Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Davis quits possibly making a challenge to TMay more lik

1356789

Comments

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Can I press on Theresa May the merits of David Lidington for the job?

    Is there a market?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Grayling to Brexit could be an interesting move.

    He could add Brexit to his long list of successes!
    Not sure those in the justice system would agree with you!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    malcolmg said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Would she actually win a secret ballot though?

    I think that depends: how scared is JRM about Hammond ending up PM and how scared is Kenneth Clarke about JRM making it to Number 10? There are a lot of non ERG leavers who just want the whole thing over and done with, and fear that a leadership contest could end up jeopardizing the government and therefore Brexit itself.

    My personal view is that Davis has just given the EU an excuse to reject the deal. I.e.: "look the UK government doesn't even believe in it, come back when you've decided."
    Fair play to Davis, at least one of the Brexiteers has some balls.

    May’s toast. What finished her is the bloody difficult woman tag. I lived through the seventies and eighties, and she ain’t no Thatcher. May is nothing. The embarrassing way she and her team have tried to,spin her as tough leader over the weekend just brings home to everyone of her MPs that she is not PM materiel, hasn’t been from the moment she got the job. When did she demonstrate any command of detail? Three key elections in three years, what campaigning immpression did she leave on them? What are her core beliefs she returns to to avoid just blowing in the wind on a day to day basis? If you are going to be a bloody difficult woman you have to be bloody good at it, tell a minister they are moving in a reshuffle they move, not tell you otherwise and stay put. You have to Turn up to leader debates and tough grillings, and stamp yourself and your policy on it. If you don’t lead like that, you are not leading at all. Her ministers are unsackable becuase she’s too weak to sack or even control them now.
    Whatever their persuasion on Brexit, whatever wing of the party they are from, this week the tory MPs will vote on the fact this government needs to negoatiate robustly with the EU now, strong on detail and sense of direction, which they all know they won’t get if May limps on. For the nations sake They cannot vote negatively this time just to block someone else, they need to crown a PM whose grasp of detail is priministerial standard.

    It has to be Gove. When PM next week, Gove will move/sack Hammond. To extinguish memory of May’s “Turd Way” and get down to proper, robust Brexit negotiations with EU requires brexiteer PM and Chancellor. Regardless what he said of it over the weekend, Gove and his cabinet will be happy todrop May’s “Turd Way” into nearest bin the moment EU publicly reject it.

    God help us it that horrible little weasel Gove ever gets control, a nastier , sneakier , back stabbing turncoat you will never find
    Challenge accepted.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Can I press on Theresa May the merits of David Lidington for the job?

    It'd inflame the leavers, she'll lose the confidence motion.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Alistair said:

    In other news I see the USA just tried to browbeat the nations of the world to oppose a WHO resolution in favour of breast-feeding.

    Just tried to read the text not as easy as you might think, only portions are available, it was a bit more than that. It was about banning the promotion of formula and funding states that try to ban it. Virtue signalling wank. Perpetual breast feeding is a middle class fantasy. It can be useful for the first few weeks and then many mothers move onto formula. Nothing wrong with that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Pulpstar, very risky to give Grayling the gig. Given his record of cocking up, we'd probably end up either remaining or declaring war.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Off topic, but thanks to whoever it was on here (Charles ?) that recommended Bad Blood by John Carreyrou. Great read, went through it in a day.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    CD13 said:

    Mr G,

    "Parliament will decide and will not allow a hard Brexit." It will only allow its own version of Brexit and that is BINO. Why did they then vote for a referendum for the people to decide.

    Mr Roger,

    The essence of democracy is that the voice of the voters is heard and acted upon. That Bogdanor quote? Obviously, he knows nothing.


    But I will concede defeat. Only a certain sort of democracy is allowed. I will miss the walk to the ballot box a little. Unless we get a candidate who doesn't pretend.

    That Trump, for instance, he's certifiably barmy, but at least, he's honest.


    Parliament and the HOC has an in built majority to remain and the maths are simple. They will not allow a hard Brexit.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    JackW said:

    Next BREXIT Cabinet Minister annoucement sometime just after 9:00am - Sky News

    Poison chalice to :

    1. Alastair Meeks
    2. Peter Bone
    3. Anna Soubry
    4. A former MP for Broxtowe
    5. Nick Clegg
    6. IDS
    7. Mike Smithson
    8. Harry Kane
    9. A distinguished Scottish peer of unimpeachable talent and modesty.

    I would happily do the job. I might surprise a few people in the role too.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    So its all Sunk in a little overnight - it seems to be a what did they expect would happen? May must have provoked them on Friday and can’t have expected them all to fall in line which they apparently did on Friday.

    Gove has weakened himself again whilst he thinks he has strengthened himself. I think he is a very good minister but He seems the archetypal duplicitous politician who will change his views / stab anyone in the back if it benefits him.

    Boris was on the fence before the referendum, and it seems he wants to still ride two horses, so he has fallen in line. Not much of a loss to Government to lose Fox and Davis, and there is a possibility that May could gain support from as many on the other side of the house for some sort of deal rather than no deal.

    The big risk is tonight with the 1922 and a leadership election which will look very self indulgent, but looks inevitable now. May clearly thinks she would win, but then again she thought she would get a landslide last June.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    I've just realised that "That Trump, for instance, he's certifiably barmy, but at least, he's honest." also describes Jezza.


    Come on, Jezza, your moment has arrived. In 50 years, I've gone full circle; you've got my vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    I get that the Irish question is convenient for Remainers/soft Brexiters but to my mind it is much more likely to provoke English nationalism than the West Lothian Question ever was.

    The Brexiters are rightly criticised for just focusing on winning the referendum and not having a plan. But what is the long term strategy for those who believe in Remain/BINO? That the country will unite around their vision? They don't care what the other half think?

    Bluntly English voters cared about Northern Ireland when you had terrorists bombing the mainland. You had politicians like Trimble and Hume who were trying to bring about peace. Now you have the domincance of the DUP and Sinn Fein. Northern Ireland consumes a large public subsidy and I fail to see why the English will be happy to keep this going in the long term for a place that seems so alien and uninvestable because people don't get on with their neighbours. Soft Brexit won't even begin to solve our problems.

    No it won't. Sadly no options seem likely to.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673
    edited July 2018
    notme said:

    malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    Whatever the outcome this is going to end up as a right pickle for Ruth Davidson.

    Either she has to sell soft Brexit to her hard Brexit voter base or she gets a hard Brexite PM and has to tour the talk shows trying to justify her positions in a hard Brexiters party and what that means....

    Sorry, I entertained the thought that Ruth might actually face some tough questioning by political journalists there for a moment.

    Has she not retired, not a peep from her for months.
    That's more to do with how Scottish regional politics rarely pops onto the horizon. She is pregnant as well is she not?
    Yes which means we will get rid of her for a spell, though downside is she will be replaced by an even bigger diddy , Carlaw. He struggles to tie his shoelaces and would shoot his granny for two bob.
    Country is definitely a better place when she is not on the tame media talking gobshite.
    PS: The Scottish Tories are even worse than the Westminster ones , hard to believe but true. Common factor is they all have more faces than the town clock.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957

    JackW said:

    Next BREXIT Cabinet Minister annoucement sometime just after 9:00am - Sky News

    Poison chalice to :

    1. Alastair Meeks
    2. Peter Bone
    3. Anna Soubry
    4. A former MP for Broxtowe
    5. Nick Clegg
    6. IDS
    7. Mike Smithson
    8. Harry Kane
    9. A distinguished Scottish peer of unimpeachable talent and modesty.

    I would happily do the job. I might surprise a few people in the role too.
    Been taking lessons on how to deal with the EU in Hungary?
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    JackW said:

    Next BREXIT Cabinet Minister annoucement sometime just after 9:00am - Sky News

    Poison chalice to :

    1. Alastair Meeks
    2. Peter Bone
    3. Anna Soubry
    4. A former MP for Broxtowe
    5. Nick Clegg
    6. IDS
    7. Mike Smithson
    8. Harry Kane
    9. A distinguished Scottish peer of unimpeachable talent and modesty.

    I would happily do the job. I might surprise a few people in the role too.
    I’d look forward to the press conference where you called 52% of the population xenophobic liars!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Lost in all the Brexit hoo-ha this morning, the news that the Russian state appears to have killed a British citizen on British soil is not getting quite the attention it deserves.

    Are we going to have to see a military fingertip search of the whole of Salisbury and Amesbury by teams of men in chemical suits?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited July 2018

    Mr. Pulpstar, very risky to give Grayling the gig. Given his record of cocking up, we'd probably end up either remaining or declaring war.

    Less risky than Lidington, Grayling hasn't minded throwing the north under a train - he'd be prepared for no deal. Lidington says we will sign up to whatever the EU says.
    That's unconscionable to most of the parliamentary party
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm afraid that the childish nonsense about forcing Ministers who don't like to get taxis and walk the driveway has rather come home to roost. May seems to surround herself with people who think the Thick of It is a documentary but who unfortunately have far less ability than Malcolm Tucker. It is the passive aggressive mindset of the Home Office brought to number 10.

    Davis is in himself no great loss to the government but failing to keep him on board does risk serious trouble for May. She made a serious mistake agreeing the back stop provisions last December. It was a gamble that a better overall deal would be found in time but it has been used to undermine our negotiating position yet further. The proposal she wants to put forward is deeply underwhelming but it may be a realistic assessment of what is possible based on her Head of State discussions at the Summit. Once again though, as with the failed election campaign, there is a chronic shortage of leadership and a total absence of inspiration.

    The situation in NI means that she could not have not agreed to the backstop.

    Even the token (presumably lefty) comedian on Pienaar yesterday realised that.
    Why? Arlene Foster didn't want it. She was right. May signed up to a deal which she now says no British PM could ever sign up to. She basically gave up sovereignty to a chunk of the UK. It is so bad that we have to sign almost any deal with the EU to get around it. That is what the contortions of the proposal agreed at cabinet are about.
    Because NI is not some academic issue to be solved on paper with one theoretical course of action to say "sod it let's put up a border".

    It was a source of death and destruction for decades and remains hugely sensitive affecting people on both sides of the border and peace has been dearly won. No British PM could ever put that at risk.

    Does that mean we can never leave the EU? Of course not. But it does mean that the implications and restrictions on the type of leaving we would have been and now seemingly are doing should have been made clear.

    Oh wait I think that might have been mentioned but was deemed part of Project Fear.
    So we are to be in?
    The Tory cabinet is not quite that bad David,, very close mind you.
    Verbose and overdone rhetoric more like

    The Govt is weak, the opposition weaker.
    I would challenge that. The Gov is weaker because it actually needs to act, to get things done, there are expectations and additional pressures on it.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    CD13 said:

    Mr G,

    "Parliament will decide and will not allow a hard Brexit." It will only allow its own version of Brexit and that is BINO. Why did they then vote for a referendum for the people to decide.

    Mr Roger,

    The essence of democracy is that the voice of the voters is heard and acted upon. That Bogdanor quote? Obviously, he knows nothing.


    But I will concede defeat. Only a certain sort of democracy is allowed. I will miss the walk to the ballot box a little. Unless we get a candidate who doesn't pretend.

    That Trump, for instance, he's certifiably barmy, but at least, he's honest.


    'The People' (or at least 52% of us) didn't decide on which sort of Brexit since that wasn't on the ballot paper.
    Trump honest? Really? He can't stop himself from lying!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    DD really is a wally.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Anyone else think it was odd that he went around midnight?

    Surely a seasoned politico would announce on sunday evening in time for the front pages, first edition i.e. maybe 8 oclock?

    Have I missed something, or was it very late in the day when he finally decided?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    Remember that hole in the ozone layer, that had been mending itself? Well, China has ripped it open again:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44738952
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    notme said:

    Alistair said:

    In other news I see the USA just tried to browbeat the nations of the world to oppose a WHO resolution in favour of breast-feeding.

    Just tried to read the text not as easy as you might think, only portions are available, it was a bit more than that. It was about banning the promotion of formula and funding states that try to ban it. Virtue signalling wank. Perpetual breast feeding is a middle class fantasy. It can be useful for the first few weeks and then many mothers move onto formula. Nothing wrong with that.
    Baby formula providers lie.

    They lie about breast feeding, they lie about their formula. In third world countries they lie blatantly, openly and directly, in first world countries they find midwife 'education' and get the mid wives to peddle their lies for them.

    Their lies have killed babies and impoverished families around the world.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,764

    Mr. Pulpstar, very risky to give Grayling the gig. Given his record of cocking up, we'd probably end up either remaining or declaring war.

    I've never understood how Grayling remains in office.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    I get that the Irish question is convenient for Remainers/soft Brexiters but to my mind it is much more likely to provoke English nationalism than the West Lothian Question ever was.

    The Brexiters are rightly criticised for just focusing on winning the referendum and not having a plan. But what is the long term strategy for those who believe in Remain/BINO? That the country will unite around their vision? They don't care what the other half think?

    Bluntly English voters cared about Northern Ireland when you had terrorists bombing the mainland. You had politicians like Trimble and Hume who were trying to bring about peace. Now you have the domincance of the DUP and Sinn Fein. Northern Ireland consumes a large public subsidy and I fail to see why the English will be happy to keep this going in the long term for a place that seems so alien and uninvestable because people don't get on with their neighbours. Soft Brexit won't even begin to solve our problems.

    I have always thought this. Appeasing Varadker is a vote loser for the Conservatives.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Pulpstar said:

    Grayling to Brexit could be an interesting move.

    A hilarious one. “Congratulations, Chris. After seeing the outstanding success you’ve made of Thameslink, I’ve found somewhere else your negotiating and organisational skills can be employed.”
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Would she actually win a secret ballot though?

    I think that depends: how scared is JRM about Hammond ending up PM and how scared is Kenneth Clarke about JRM making it to Number 10? There are a lot of non ERG leavers who just want the whole thing over and done with, and fear that a leadership contest could end up jeopardizing the government and therefore Brexit itself.

    My personal view is that Davis has just given the EU an excuse to reject the deal. I.e.: "look the UK government doesn't even believe in it, come back when you've decided."
    Fair play to Davis, at least one of the Brexiteers has some balls.

    May’s toast. What finished her is the bloody difficult woman tag. I lived through the seventies and eighties, and she ain’t no Thatcher. May is nothing. The embarrassing way she and her team have tried to,spin her as tough leader over the weekend just brings home to everyone of her MPs that she is not PM materiel, hasn’t been from the moment she got the job. When did she demonstrate any command of detail? Three key elections in three years, what campaigning immpression did she leave on them? What are her core beliefs she returns to to avoid just blowing in the wind on a day to day basis? If you are going to be a bloody difficult woman you have to be bloody good at it, tell a minister they are moving in a reshuffle they move, not tell you otherwise and stay put. You have to Turn up to leader debates and tough grillings, and stamp yourself and your policy on it. If you don’t lead like that, you are not leading at all. Her ministers are unsackable becuase she’s too weak to sack or even control them now.
    Whatever their persuasion on Brexit, whatever wing of the party they are from, this week the tory MPs will vote on the fact this government needs to negoatiate robustly with the EU now, strong on detail and sense of direction, which they all know they won’t get if May limps on. For the nations sake They cannot vote negatively this time just to block someone else, they need to crown a PM whose grasp of detail is priministerial standard.

    It has to be Gove. When PM next week, Gove will move/sack Hammond. To extinguish memory of May’s “Turd Way” and get down to proper, robust Brexit negotiations with EU requires brexiteer PM and Chancellor. Regardless what he said of it over the weekend, Gove and his cabinet will be happy todrop May’s “Turd Way” into nearest bin the moment EU publicly reject it.

    God help us it that horrible little weasel Gove ever gets control, a nastier , sneakier , back stabbing turncoat you will never find
    Challenge accepted.
    You will be hard pushed to better him KLE4
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340

    Then, they negotiate the CETA deal and put it up for a vote.

    The deal you outlined is not negotiable with the EU, and in any case trade negotiations wouldn't start until after we leave and the backstop becomes part of an international treaty.
    The ONLY part of the CETA deal that the EU have shown the slightest problem with relates to NI. The rest they have already said would be fine.

    If May stood up to Barnier on this the EU would have conceded a MaxFac fudge on NI - the rest of the EU would never have gone for no deal over such a trivial matter.

    It was negotiating blackmail used on a weak and stupid leader whose main adviser wanted to be blackmailed to force a soft Brexit. No wonder DD told her not to do it.
    CD13 said:

    Mr G,

    "Parliament will decide and will not allow a hard Brexit." It will only allow its own version of Brexit and that is BINO. Why did they then vote for a referendum for the people to decide.


    Perhaps you recall a general election being held last year, in which we elected Parliamentary representatives to implement the Brexit vote. You may not like how they are doing but hey, that’s democracy.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,764
    malcolmg said:

    notme said:

    malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    Whatever the outcome this is going to end up as a right pickle for Ruth Davidson.

    Either she has to sell soft Brexit to her hard Brexit voter base or she gets a hard Brexite PM and has to tour the talk shows trying to justify her positions in a hard Brexiters party and what that means....

    Sorry, I entertained the thought that Ruth might actually face some tough questioning by political journalists there for a moment.

    Has she not retired, not a peep from her for months.
    That's more to do with how Scottish regional politics rarely pops onto the horizon. She is pregnant as well is she not?
    Yes which means we will get rid of her for a spell, though downside is she will be replaced by an even bigger diddy , Carlaw. He struggles to tie his shoelaces and would shoot his granny for two bob.
    Country is definitely a better place when she is not on the tame media talking gobshite.
    PS: The Scottish Tories are even worse than the Westminster ones , hard to believe but true. Common factor is they all have more faces than the town clock.
    I'll put you down as a don't know.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Anyone else think it was odd that he went around midnight?

    Surely a seasoned politico would announce on sunday evening in time for the front pages, first edition i.e. maybe 8 oclock?

    Have I missed something, or was it very late in the day when he finally decided?

    Suggestions the announcement was delayed by the Novichok news. Apparently he was in No 10 at around 8pm
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, very risky to give Grayling the gig. Given his record of cocking up, we'd probably end up either remaining or declaring war.

    I've never understood how Grayling remains in office.
    He was May's campaign manager. She values loyalty above all else.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    Scott_P said:

    Anyone else think it was odd that he went around midnight?

    Surely a seasoned politico would announce on sunday evening in time for the front pages, first edition i.e. maybe 8 oclock?

    Have I missed something, or was it very late in the day when he finally decided?

    Suggestions the announcement was delayed by the Novichok news. Apparently he was in No 10 at around 8pm
    TMay was probably busy dealing with grown up stuff like the Salisbury poisoning, so DD had to wait to do his little flounce.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, very risky to give Grayling the gig. Given his record of cocking up, we'd probably end up either remaining or declaring war.

    I've never understood how Grayling remains in office.
    Indeed, Grayling does seem a fish out of water ....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Grayling would be better than Lidington, seriously
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited July 2018

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm afraid that the childish nonsense about forcing Ministers who don't like to get taxis and walk the driveway has rather come home to roost. May seems to surround herself with people who think the Thick of It is a documentary but who unfortunately have far less ability than Malcolm Tucker. It is the passive aggressive mindset of the Home Office brought to number 10.

    Davis is in himself no great loss to the government but failing to keep him on board does risk serious trouble for May. She made a serious mistake agreeing the back stop provisions last December. It was a gamble that a better overall deal would be found in time but it has been used to undermine our negotiating position yet further. The proposal she wants to put forward is deeply underwhelming but it may be a realistic assessment of what is possible based on her Head of State discussions at the Summit. Once again though, as with the failed election campaign, there is a chronic shortage of leadership and a total absence of inspiration.

    I know you should generally assume stupidity over malice but I think I'd look at it the other way: The whole point of that exercise was to trigger resignations and get the leadership challenge over and done with, so that TMay will have a clear run to negotiate terms of surrender reach a win-win deal with her European partners that may infringe somewhat on her red lines.

    The thing about the taxis was almost set up as if to tempt a photo-op: Departing minister laces up his walking boots, hikes off stoically through the English countryside...
    And that would have helped the government how, precisely? Stupidity doesn't even begin to cover it. Its macho posturing by the team that lost a majority by similar hubris and arrogance but who seemed to have learned nothing.
    I have to disagree with you on this. All the government was saying was that actions have consequences; something many leavers (and especially hardcore Brexiteers) seem to forget.
    y before they get back to London? It was pathetic.
    No, it wasn't.

    (Cue: 'oh, yes it was!')
    It might have been but the idea that has had big consequences is I think getting it backward. A confrontation was inevitable. May attempted to have it and get agreement. I don't see how she tried was a major factor, the simple fact is there is no way all the cabinet were going to agree. Resignations had to come at some point.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. CD13, Corbyn isn't honest. He isn't honest about his 'friends' in Ireland or in and around Israel. He isn't even honest on football, signing an EDM condemning excessive celebration in the past and now calling for a bank holiday if we win.

    And then there's his preference for taking the word of the Russian state over that of his own country (and the international consensus) regarding the use of chemical weapons. Or his deranged economic perspective, which isn't working terribly well in Venezuela. Or the anti-Semitism.

    The Government is not good. The Opposition's front bench is an order of magnitude worse. I'd urge you not to vote for Corbyn. It's not so much cutting off your nose to spite your face as napalming it.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    Scott_P said:
    Is this like Trump’s secret plan to defeat ISIS?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    It clearly is time for Grayling to sprinkle a little of his Northern Rail magic on the Brexit project.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Sandpit, indeed. Hopefully the male victim will survive.

    Mr. F, it's surprising.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Is now the point of maximum chance since the referendum that Brexit doesn't actually happen?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Would she actually win a secret ballot though?

    I think that depends: how scared is JRM about Hammond ending up PM and how scared is Kenneth Clarke about JRM making it to Number 10? There are a lot of non ERG leavers who just want the whole thing over and done with, and fear that a leadership contest could end up jeopardizing the government and therefore Brexit itself.

    My personal view is that Davis has just given the EU an excuse to reject the deal. I.e.: "look the UK government doesn't even believe in it, come back when you've decided."
    Agreed. I suspect the ultras may now go for it and the resultant instability and disunity could easily lead to a GE. A JC Government becomes the most likely outcome. Hello Venezuela. Never has the role of moderate Labour MPs been more important. A disaster for the UK now beckons.
    There was no general election for almost 2 years when Thatcher went or almost 3 years when Blair went.

    No poll currently puts Corbyn anywhere near a majority even if there is one. If he does become PM it will only be by being propped up by minor parties and at the mercy of his backbenchers.

    Of course Mexico now has joined Venezuela and Greece with populist leftists heading their government so it is not something completely unusual at the moment
    I'm afraid your reliance on sub-samples will not be sufficient to save a divided party from the wrath of the electorate.
    Indeed. It is absurd to rely on polling conducted before the tories just went into open warfare as well. Things are no longer the same as 2017, or even last week. Now the tories are at each others throats. Half those happy now have this notion that people who praised the deal can now oppose it without consequence which is also silly.

    May is bad, it is true, but if people wanted a deal she was at least trying for one. It will be interesting to see which challengers admit they don't want one, or if they pretend there's time to try something new.
    The Tories have been at each others' throats all my adult life.
    Like this on the biggest issue of the day at its most critical moment, which cannot be papered over for another day? It's the endgame.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Jonathan said:

    It clearly is time for Grayling to sprinkle a little of his Northern Rail magic on the Brexit project.

    https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1016219253924663296
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340

    Is now the point of maximum chance since the referendum that Brexit doesn't actually happen?

    Yes, but it is still very likely to happen
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Scott_P said:
    They bold enough to put their name to that statement? If not it's bollocks and she's toast

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Time for May to show her inner Corbyn
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    The Brexit Bulldog being interviewed. The Tories really dodged a bullet when they rejected him for Cameron.

    You say that but Cameron is the primary architect of this monstrous carbuncle.
    Yes but its become obvious that Cameron knew that the question he was about to ask was both absurd and in any event not doable. But he also knew there were some zealots on the periphery who in a very close election he needed to buy off.

    So humouring them by holding a referendum that he knew Remain would win was perfectly logical. He just didn't realise that the very act of calling a referendum would give the insane idea credibility
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    edited July 2018

    I get that the Irish question is convenient for Remainers/soft Brexiters but to my mind it is much more likely to provoke English nationalism than the West Lothian Question ever was.

    The Brexiters are rightly criticised for just focusing on winning the referendum and not having a plan. But what is the long term strategy for those who believe in Remain/BINO? That the country will unite around their vision? They don't care what the other half think?

    Bluntly English voters cared about Northern Ireland when you had terrorists bombing the mainland. You had politicians like Trimble and Hume who were trying to bring about peace. Now you have the domincance of the DUP and Sinn Fein. Northern Ireland consumes a large public subsidy and I fail to see why the English will be happy to keep this going in the long term for a place that seems so alien and uninvestable because people don't get on with their neighbours. Soft Brexit won't even begin to solve our problems.

    Good analysis. What's your solution?

    Remainers voted the way they did to avoid us getting into the situation we are now in. It's too late to worry about that now. We are where we are.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Is now the point of maximum chance since the referendum that Brexit doesn't actually happen?

    Yes, but it is still very likely to happen
    That sounds about right to me.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited July 2018
    Scott_P said:
    That wasn't the reason he gave. He said he disagreed with Mrs May strategy (though he hoped she was right) and therefore, as the person responsible for justifoing it to parliament and negotiating it in Brussels, it was right for him to step down and leave it to someone who did believe it was the right strategy. Fair enough.

    He also said he definitely wouldn't stand as leader, that he would continue to support her. I think he even said he loved her! I need to listen again.

    All in all, I thought he came across as reasonable and honest in a way Boris never can.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    What would happen if Labour tables a VoNC motion today? Might the Hard Brexiteers gamble on improving their position in another GE?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Would she actually win a secret ballot though?

    I think that depends: how scared is JRM about Hammond ending up PM and how scared is Kenneth Clarke about JRM making it to Number 10? There are a lot of non ERG leavers who just want the whole thing over and done with, and fear that a leadership contest could end up jeopardizing the government and therefore Brexit itself.

    My personal view is that Davis has just given the EU an excuse to reject the deal. I.e.: "look the UK government doesn't even believe in it, come back when you've decided."
    Fair play to Davis, at least one of the Brexiteers has some balls.

    May’s toast. What finished her is the bloody difficult woman tag. I lived through the seventies and eighties, and she ain’t no Thatcher. May is nothing. The embarrassing way she and her team have tried to,spin her as tough leader over the weekend just brings home to everyone of her MPs that she is not PM materiel, hasn’t been from the moment she got the job. When did she demonstrate any command of detail? Three key elections in three years, what campaigning immpression did she leave on them? What are her core beliefs she returns to to avoid just blowing in the wind on a day to day basis? If you are going to be a bloody difficult woman you have to be bloody good at it, tell a minister they are moving in a reshuffle they move, not tell you otherwise and stay put. You have to Turn up to leader debates and tough grillings, and stamp yourself and your policy on it. If you don’t lead like that, you are not leading at all. Her ministers are unsackable becuase she’s too weak to sack or even control them now.
    Whatever their persuasion on Brexit, whatever wing of the party they are from, this week the tory MPs will vote on the fact this government needs to negoatiate robustly with the EU now, strong on detail and sense of direction, which they all know they won’t get if May limps on. For the nations sake They cannot vote negatively this time just to block someone else, they need to crown a PM whose grasp of detail is priministerial standard.

    It has to be Gove. When PM next week, Gove will move/sack Hammond. To extinguish be happy todrop May’s “Turd Way” into nearest bin the moment EU publicly reject it.

    God help us it that sneakier , back stabbing turncoat you will never find
    Challenge accepted.
    You will be hard pushed to better him KLE4
    I was more thinking I'm sure there's a bigger weasel hiding among that crowd. Gover is too obvious.
  • The_Mule_The_Mule_ Posts: 30

    I get that the Irish question is convenient for Remainers/soft Brexiters but to my mind it is much more likely to provoke English nationalism than the West Lothian Question ever was.

    The Brexiters are rightly criticised for just focusing on winning the referendum and not having a plan. But what is the long term strategy for those who believe in Remain/BINO? That the country will unite around their vision? They don't care what the other half think?

    Bluntly English voters cared about Northern Ireland when you had terrorists bombing the mainland. You had politicians like Trimble and Hume who were trying to bring about peace. Now you have the domincance of the DUP and Sinn Fein. Northern Ireland consumes a large public subsidy and I fail to see why the English will be happy to keep this going in the long term for a place that seems so alien and uninvestable because people don't get on with their neighbours. Soft Brexit won't even begin to solve our problems.

    Agree and not just that. What NI and Brexit has shown us is that if you want to bring about constitutional change in this country do you:

    a) Campaign on a proposition for years until it is included in a parties manifesto which is then put to the people in a referendum.

    OR

    b) Blow stuff up and murder people.

    Lesson of Brexit so far is that you choose B because only then will the fucking Civil Service pay attention.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,920

    Roger said:

    The Brexit Bulldog being interviewed. The Tories really dodged a bullet when they rejected him for Cameron.

    You say that but Cameron is the primary architect of this monstrous carbuncle.
    'Twat' as he was recently - and quite correctly - described.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Davis is a wally, apparently acting alone. Brexiteers need to think hard about hitching themselves to this wagon

    May is lucky.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Would she actually win a secret ballot though?

    I think that depends: how scared is JRM about Hammond ending up PM and how scared is Kenneth Clarke about JRM making it to Number 10? There are a lot of non ERG leavers who just want the whole thing over and done with, and fear that a leadership contest could end up jeopardizing the government and therefore Brexit itself.

    My personal view is that Davis has just given the EU an excuse to reject the deal. I.e.: "look the UK government doesn't even believe in it, come back when you've decided."


    No poll currently puts Corbyn anywhere near a pletely unusual at the moment
    I'm afraid your reliance on sub-samples will not be sufficient to save a divided party from the wrath of the electorate.
    I am afraid you fail to understand the fury from the Leave voting majority of Tory voters if the Leave vote they voted for is not properly respected. By the time of the next general election we have to be out of the EU and have properly ended FOM and left the single market, even if May's Brexit Fudge enables a transition period until the end of 2020. If Tory Leave voters do not think Brexit has been properly delivered by their party (and about two thirds of Tory voters voted Leave) they will stay at home at the next general election or defect to UKIP or even Labour. Campaigning on Saturday in marginal Enfield Southgate, hardly Leave central, I had one normally Tory voter tell me he would stay at home at the next general election rather than vote for 'that woman' after in his words 'she has betrayed the Brexit vote'

    It is ignoring the reasons behind the Brexit vote that will hit the Tory vote hardest not respecting it, Corbyn will also face problems with his Remain voting base sooner or later accepted and defections to the LDs if he persists on indisting on leaving the single market as he will to try and keep marginal working class Labour Leave seats
    Tories will lose more on the south than they gain elsewhere. I suspect the Scottish Tory MPs could also suffer. The Remain MPs will not vote for WTO or any kind of hard Brexit . It's over.
    Tory seats in the South beyond university towns will never vote for a Corbyn led Labpur Party even if they voted Remain. 8 of the top 10 Tory target seats they need for a majority are Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands.

    All but a tiny handful of Tory MPs have already voted to Leave the Single Market
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Is now the point of maximum chance since the referendum that Brexit doesn't actually happen?

    phil collins seems to think so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Scott_P said:
    Is this like Trump’s secret plan to defeat ISIS?
    Which has been pretty successful with ISIS reduced to a rump
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Would she actually win a secret ballot though?

    I think that depends: how scared is JRM about Hammond ending up PM and how scared is Kenneth Clarke about JRM making it to Number 10? There are a lot of non ERG leavers who just want the whole thing over and done with, and fear that a leadership contest could end up jeopardizing the government and therefore Brexit itself.

    My personal view is that Davis has just given the EU an excuse to reject the deal. I.e.: "look the UK government doesn't even believe in it, come back when you've decided."


    No poll currently puts Corbyn anywhere near a pletely unusual at the moment
    I'm afraid your reliance on sub-samples will not be sufficient to save a divided party from the wrath of the electorate.
    I am afraid you fail to understand the fury from the Leave voting majority of Tory voters if the Leave vote they voted for is not properly respected. By the time of the next general election we have to be out of the EU and have properly ended FOM and left the single market, even if May's Brexit Fudge enables a transition period until the end of 2020. If Tory Leave voters do not think Brexit has been properly delivered by their party (and about two thirds of Tory voters voted Leave) they will stay at home at the next general election or defect to UKIP or even Labour. Campaigning on Saturday in marginal Enfield Southgate, hardly Leave central, I had one normally Tory voter tell me he would stay at home at the next general election rather than vote for 'that woman' after in his words 'she has betrayed the Brexit vote'

    It is ignoring the reasons behind the Brexit vote that will hit the Tory vote hardest not respecting it, Corbyn will also face problems with his Remain voting base sooner or later accepted and defections to the LDs if he persists on indisting on leaving the single market as he will to try and keep marginal working class Labour Leave seats
    Tories will lose more on the south than they gain elsewhere. I suspect the Scottish Tory MPs could also suffer. The Remain MPs will not vote for WTO or any kind of hard Brexit . It's over.
    Tory seats in the South beyond university towns will never vote for a Corbyn led Labpur Party even if they voted Remain. 8 of the top 10 Tory target seats they need for a majority are Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands.

    All but a tiny handful of Tory MPs have already voted to Leave the Single Market
    They will lose the key fights though. No deal is now coming, fewer sup port that.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Jonathan said:

    Davis is a wally, apparently acting alone. Brexiteers need to think hard about hitching themselves to this wagon

    May is lucky.

    Davis is not acting alone -- two or three junior ministers have also resigned.

    Theresa May's dilemma in replacing Davis is she needs to find someone who is not already planning to resign.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Jonathan said:

    Davis is a wally, apparently acting alone. Brexiteers need to think hard about hitching themselves to this wagon

    May is lucky.

    perhaps it is already too late. i am pretty sure we were told some weeks ago that 40 letters had gone in. the times yesterdays was reporting that ten more were headed in (although iirc they had a lower figure later in the paper's reporting)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    What would happen if Labour tables a VoNC motion today? Might the Hard Brexiteers gamble on improving their position in another GE?

    How? The party has no unifed position and a lot of ultra remainers and soft Brexit tories woukd still be candidates. People woukd not know what the party wanted.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    The Brexit Bulldog being interviewed. The Tories really dodged a bullet when they rejected him for Cameron.

    You say that but Cameron is the primary architect of this monstrous carbuncle.
    Yes but its become obvious that Cameron knew that the question he was about to ask was both absurd and in any event not doable. But he also knew there were some zealots on the periphery who in a very close election he needed to buy off.

    So humouring them by holding a referendum that he knew Remain would win was perfectly logical. He just didn't realise that the very act of calling a referendum would give the insane idea credibility
    Very astute comment.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    The_Mule_ said:

    I get that the Irish question is convenient for Remainers/soft Brexiters but to my mind it is much more likely to provoke English nationalism than the West Lothian Question ever was.

    The Brexiters are rightly criticised for just focusing on winning the referendum and not having a plan. But what is the long term strategy for those who believe in Remain/BINO? That the country will unite around their vision? They don't care what the other half think?

    Bluntly English voters cared about Northern Ireland when you had terrorists bombing the mainland. You had politicians like Trimble and Hume who were trying to bring about peace. Now you have the domincance of the DUP and Sinn Fein. Northern Ireland consumes a large public subsidy and I fail to see why the English will be happy to keep this going in the long term for a place that seems so alien and uninvestable because people don't get on with their neighbours. Soft Brexit won't even begin to solve our problems.

    Agree and not just that. What NI and Brexit has shown us is that if you want to bring about constitutional change in this country do you:

    a) Campaign on a proposition for years until it is included in a parties manifesto which is then put to the people in a referendum.

    OR

    b) Blow stuff up and murder people.

    Lesson of Brexit so far is that you choose B because only then will the fucking Civil Service pay attention.
    One way or another, the "terrorists" usually get what they want.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Got a direct tweet reply just now to a query to a Guardian journalist at the Thai site: "It rained overnight (local time) but has stayed dry today - so no rain while the UK slept."

    Confusing as earlier report said it was raining hard, but the time difference is probably the issue - at least seems to have stopped now.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    edited July 2018
    The_Mule_ said:

    I get that the Irish question is convenient for Remainers/soft Brexiters but to my mind it is much more likely to provoke English nationalism than the West Lothian Question ever was.

    The Brexiters are rightly criticised for just focusing on winning the referendum and not having a plan. But what is the long term strategy for those who believe in Remain/BINO? That the country will unite around their vision? They don't care what the other half think?

    Bluntly English voters cared about Northern Ireland when you had terrorists bombing the mainland. You had politicians like Trimble and Hume who were trying to bring about peace. Now you have the domincance of the DUP and Sinn Fein. Northern Ireland consumes a large public subsidy and I fail to see why the English will be happy to keep this going in the long term for a place that seems so alien and uninvestable because people don't get on with their neighbours. Soft Brexit won't even begin to solve our problems.

    Agree and not just that. What NI and Brexit has shown us is that if you want to bring about constitutional change in this country do you:

    a) Campaign on a proposition for years until it is included in a parties manifesto which is then put to the people in a referendum.

    OR

    b) Blow stuff up and murder people.

    Lesson of Brexit so far is that you choose B because only then will the fucking Civil Service pay attention.
    Although nominally opposed to Brexit Sinn Fein not so secretly loves Brexit. It's doing more for their cause of a United Ireland than years of violence. They can take a longer view. The DUP made a big strategic mistake hitching its star to Brexit .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    Please let it be Chris Grayling or the disgraced Liam Fox.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    Alistair said:

    notme said:

    Alistair said:

    In other news I see the USA just tried to browbeat the nations of the world to oppose a WHO resolution in favour of breast-feeding.

    Just tried to read the text not as easy as you might think, only portions are available, it was a bit more than that. It was about banning the promotion of formula and funding states that try to ban it. Virtue signalling wank. Perpetual breast feeding is a middle class fantasy. It can be useful for the first few weeks and then many mothers move onto formula. Nothing wrong with that.
    Baby formula providers lie.

    They lie about breast feeding, they lie about their formula. In third world countries they lie blatantly, openly and directly, in first world countries they find midwife 'education' and get the mid wives to peddle their lies for them.

    Their lies have killed babies and impoverished families around the world.
    In the developed world it is not much of an issue. Fox Jr was bottle fed after a month or so. In the developing world where marketing drives sales and clean water and equipment are rarely adequate it is a killer. US Republicans only like unborn babies, after they have been born they are just marketing opportunities.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,282
    notme said:

    Roger said:

    The bastards bluff has been called and then there were nine.....

    What a pathetic lilly livered bunch the Tory cabinet are. The only thing that is saving their miserable government is Corbyn. Time to abandon Brexit once and for all.

    Do you not feel the result of the referendum should be respected in any way? Even in the softest of soft brexits such as single market membership? We are not some tin pot nation that can just ignore something so large and so important. We could fudge it, but not ignore it. We dont do that.
    I think if Theresa May or a replacement Tory was to turn around and say "this was all a terrible idea, let's call it off" and use a mandate they (barely) won on the promise they would deliver Brexit, it would be a disaster. What wouldn't, however, is seeking a democratic mandate that supersedes the referendum - either a new vote or going to the country and winning an election on a promise to halt Brexit. It would be the opposite of 'tinpot' as what makes for a healthy democracy is that no mandate is permanent or inviolable. If politicians screw up badly you have to be able to stop them doing so - and if, either because it's an impossible task or because our politicians are not up to it, Brexit is undeliverable in a form that isn't disastrous economically or politically (Brexiteers will make the same complaints about a soft Brexit that they make about none at all) then it's right to revisit the issue rather than blindly go ahead because it respects a nebulous will that is already out of date on the detail.

    Whether such a vote or election would be won by remain, is of course open to conjecture - the evidence is that opinion has hardened on both sides but changed little, and that a lot would depend on the nature of the campaign and how each side capitalised on events since the 2016 vote. But people have every right to say "there's no good answer to this, except stopping it" and seeking to persuade the nation (or enough of it to win a mandate).
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Just seen this headline from the FT.

    'Pound holds firm after Davis resigns'

    Don't snigger.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Scott_P said:

    "That he had spent only four hours since Christmas negotiating with Michel Barnier had been well reported. The bleeding obvious had gained less traction: that, until or unless the Government had first closed its divisions, there wasn’t much to talk about."

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/davis-resigns-my-part-in-his-downfall.html
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    The_Mule_ said:

    Agree and not just that. What NI and Brexit has shown us is that if you want to bring about constitutional change in this country do you:

    a) Campaign on a proposition for years until it is included in a parties manifesto which is then put to the people in a referendum.

    The EU referendum was not an example of that. They had no proposition other than a void.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    Jonathan said:

    Davis is a wally, apparently acting alone. Brexiteers need to think hard about hitching themselves to this wagon

    May is lucky.

    Surely Johnson has to resign now? Gove should stay, I think.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,880
    Don't really understand why DD is resigning, but then saying people shouldn't challenge TM.
  • Scott_P said:

    Anyone else think it was odd that he went around midnight?

    Surely a seasoned politico would announce on sunday evening in time for the front pages, first edition i.e. maybe 8 oclock?

    Have I missed something, or was it very late in the day when he finally decided?

    Suggestions the announcement was delayed by the Novichok news. Apparently he was in No 10 at around 8pm
    He said during his R4 interview that he talked to the PM by phone as she was in Sonning.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    The_Mule_ said:

    I get that the Irish question is convenient for Remainers/soft Brexiters but to my mind it is much more likely to provoke English nationalism than the West Lothian Question ever was.

    The Brexiters are rightly criticised for just focusing on winning the referendum and not having a plan. But what is the long term strategy for those who believe in Remain/BINO? That the country will unite around their vision? They don't care what the other half think?

    Bluntly English voters cared about Northern Ireland when you had terrorists bombing the mainland. You had politicians like Trimble and Hume who were trying to bring about peace. Now you have the domincance of the DUP and Sinn Fein. Northern Ireland consumes a large public subsidy and I fail to see why the English will be happy to keep this going in the long term for a place that seems so alien and uninvestable because people don't get on with their neighbours. Soft Brexit won't even begin to solve our problems.

    Agree and not just that. What NI and Brexit has shown us is that if you want to bring about constitutional change in this country do you:

    a) Campaign on a proposition for years until it is included in a parties manifesto which is then put to the people in a referendum.

    OR

    b) Blow stuff up and murder people.

    Lesson of Brexit so far is that you choose B because only then will the fucking Civil Service pay attention.
    Brexit = terrorism

    Glad we agree.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    He said during his R4 interview that he talked to the PM by phone as she was in Sonning.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1016099459112030208
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    Like JohnO I really do worry about the long term health of our party.

    Seems like a sick joke when I was told before the referendum that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party on Europe.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,764

    Is now the point of maximum chance since the referendum that Brexit doesn't actually happen?

    Probably. Though I think that would store up problems for the future.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    FF43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Davis is a wally, apparently acting alone. Brexiteers need to think hard about hitching themselves to this wagon

    May is lucky.

    Surely Johnson has to resign now? Gove should stay, I think.
    I'd expect the whole deck of cards to collapse. Imagine you were Boris. Vanish without trace by doing nothing or resign and look like you were following a buffoon like Davis
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    Is David Davis going to trigger a by election ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    Like JohnO I really do worry about the long term health of our party.

    Seems like a sick joke when I was told before the referendum that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party on Europe.

    The real hubris came afterwards when Tories on here were gloating about how it had split Labour and unified the Tories as the party of Brexit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,764

    Like JohnO I really do worry about the long term health of our party.

    Seems like a sick joke when I was told before the referendum that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party on Europe.

    The Tories have fought like ferrets in a sack as long as I can remember. Logically, they ought to have split long ago, but our electoral system keeps them together (Labour, too, of course).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Like JohnO I really do worry about the long term health of our party.

    Seems like a sick joke when I was told before the referendum that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party on Europe.

    Both parties face some existential choices. There is nascent third party out there somewhere.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sean_F said:

    Is now the point of maximum chance since the referendum that Brexit doesn't actually happen?

    Probably. Though I think that would store up problems for the future.
    The current stock of problems seems quite ample enough to last us through any possible problem shortage that might be envisaged in the next decade or so.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    I really don't get the position of the hard Leavers over the Chqeuers deal. I am very sympathetic with their argument that the spirit of the referendum needs to be respected as well as the letter. But this deal does that nearly everywhere, and even where it doesn't, it largely does.

    There's a bunch of things hard Leavers care about:

    - Controlling immigration - done
    - Ending huge payments to the EU mainly spent on farm subsidies - done
    - End of ECJ jurisdiction - done
    - Protecting the City from capricious regulation - done
    - Ability to sign our own trade deals - done 90%

    The trade deals is the only bit in real debate here. We have absolute rights to negotiate access to the other side's markets. The main disagreement is that other countries might not want to sign trade deals because the UK can't negotiate on some things. But this clearly won't be the case in practice. Of potential trade deals, there is the USA, India, China, smaller rich countries and smaller poor countries.

    Smaller poor countries - these are mostly going to sell us agricultural goods and the main barrier here is subsidies and tariffs, which we have control over.

    Smaller rich countries - will mainly care about mined commodities, where product regulation isn't an issue, and services, where we have control.

    China - mainly cares about manufacturing products, but their product standards are so low the difference between any potential UK and EU regulations is negligible. Quotas is the main thing they care about, where we have control.

    India - cares a bit about manufacturing, where they are in the same position as China, but mainly about low wage services (IT, call centres etc), where we have control

    USA - cares mainly about services and a fair amount about agriculture. Yes, their farmer lobby will be upset, but given it will be a locked in thing they change, the US foreign policy and trade establishment won't sink the deal just for them, especially when they can point to tariff reduction. Wall Street and other big service lobbies will overwhelm the donations too. Plus, it's likely any product regulation declines for the big, bad USA would likely be a focus of protesters and would sink any deal anyway.

    Brexiteers need to not follow Davis and hold their fire in case something important is actually in danger.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Jonathan said:

    Davis is a wally, apparently acting alone. Brexiteers need to think hard about hitching themselves to this wagon

    May is lucky.

    Two other MPs, including mine, have also resigned.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Sean_F said:

    Is now the point of maximum chance since the referendum that Brexit doesn't actually happen?

    Probably. Though I think that would store up problems for the future.
    The way to assuage the English nationalism it would stir up is to dissolve the UK.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Davis is a wally, apparently acting alone. Brexiteers need to think hard about hitching themselves to this wagon

    May is lucky.

    Two other MPs, including mine, have also resigned.
    Nobody important or surprising.


This discussion has been closed.