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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though TMay could be facing a confidence vote

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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    So Gove or Hunt as Foreign Secretary? Doubt it’ll be Hague being in the other place. Lidington also possible. Who else?

    Fox, as a reward for his loyalty.
    Yep, certainly a contender.
    He's also been very pragmatic about Brexit, I had him down in the hardline camp.
    That’s also true: may be the front-runner then. We should know very soon.
    Plus he was Shadow Foreign Secretary under Micky Howard, all be it for 7 months.

    Who would have thought there'd be a day when you and I would be relieved at the prospect of Liam Fox becoming Foreign Secretary.
    He was also at Defence under Cameron and is acting as a sort of bridge between the FO and BIS at the moment.

    In many ways actually he is the logical choice given his role is going nowhere.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Jonathan said:

    Gordon Brown, we miss the quiet stability of your period in office.

    Just the first run on a bank in living memory.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    Starting to think the same, but would the Brexiteers respect the Will Of The People if it changes?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,028
    White House hedging their bets on who the PM will be.
    https://twitter.com/juliehdavis/status/1016363320281128960
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    GIN1138 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Does Boris have the guts to turn up at the 1922 meeting, or will he just bottle it?

    One option would be to turn up and cause trouble, but perhaps he needs to spend more time with his ego.

    What happened to Boris's resignation letter?
    May announced his resignation for him before the letters had been written on both sides. Frankly with behavior like that, they can't complain when someone resigns while she's in the middle of a speech somewhere in future.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116

    White House hedging their bets on who the PM will be.
    https://twitter.com/juliehdavis/status/1016363320281128960

    Since even if May is ousted it will take at least a week - more likely several months - to name a replacement they know perfectly well she will still be in office.

    I can't see her lasting beyond October now though.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,299

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    So Gove or Hunt as Foreign Secretary? Doubt it’ll be Hague being in the other place. Lidington also possible. Who else?

    Fox, as a reward for his loyalty.
    Yep, certainly a contender.
    He's also been very pragmatic about Brexit, I had him down in the hardline camp.
    That’s also true: may be the front-runner then. We should know very soon.
    Plus he was Shadow Foreign Secretary under Micky Howard, all be it for 7 months.

    Who would have thought there'd be a day when you and I would be relieved at the prospect of Liam Fox becoming Foreign Secretary.
    that's how low Osborne has brought you

    so far
    No.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Southgate unity government now
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Gordon Brown, we miss the quiet stability of your period in office.

    Just the first run on a bank in living memory.
    We’ll get plenty of bank runs if the No Deal Brexit being fetishised on here transpires
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    Freggles said:

    Southgate unity government now

    This is literally the only thing I would back right now.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116

    Starting to think the same, but would the Brexiteers respect the Will Of The People if it changes?
    And what happens if it's unchanged, or attitudes have hardened?

    Do we then leave with the the hugely damaging No Deal Brexit that Selmayr and his puppets have been trying to foist on us for two years?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,578
    maaarsh said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Does Boris have the guts to turn up at the 1922 meeting, or will he just bottle it?

    One option would be to turn up and cause trouble, but perhaps he needs to spend more time with his ego.

    What happened to Boris's resignation letter?
    May announced his resignation for him before the letters had been written on both sides. Frankly with behavior like that, they can't complain when someone resigns while she's in the middle of a speech somewhere in future.
    Given he'd skipped a COBRA meeting and hadn't showed up to a Conference he was hosting they had to do something.....
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,214

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    So Gove or Hunt as Foreign Secretary? Doubt it’ll be Hague being in the other place. Lidington also possible. Who else?

    Fox, as a reward for his loyalty.
    Yep, certainly a contender.
    He's also been very pragmatic about Brexit, I had him down in the hardline camp.
    That’s also true: may be the front-runner then. We should know very soon.
    Plus he was Shadow Foreign Secretary under Micky Howard, all be it for 7 months.

    Who would have thought there'd be a day when you and I would be relieved at the prospect of Liam Fox becoming Foreign Secretary.
    Hadn’t thought about that!! Weird and wonderful times....
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Doethur, if she survives a no confidence motion there's a year minimum until the next such vote.

    She could resign, of course.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    Freggles said:

    Southgate unity government now

    This is literally the only thing I would back right now.
    Presumably Croatia was one of the countries BoJo stood up at the summit?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116

    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Gordon Brown, we miss the quiet stability of your period in office.

    Just the first run on a bank in living memory.
    We’ll get plenty of bank runs if the No Deal Brexit being fetishised on here transpires
    Indeed yes. Starting in Italy.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,299
    Why Boris isn't fit to be PM, Foreign Secretary, or a paper boy delivering to Number 10.

    Also speaks volumes about the woman that appointed him to the role.

    https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1016329496662827008
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Freggles, new government programme to promote the benefits of waistcoats?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    maaarsh said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Does Boris have the guts to turn up at the 1922 meeting, or will he just bottle it?

    One option would be to turn up and cause trouble, but perhaps he needs to spend more time with his ego.

    What happened to Boris's resignation letter?
    May announced his resignation for him before the letters had been written on both sides. Frankly with behavior like that, they can't complain when someone resigns while she's in the middle of a speech somewhere in future.
    Given he'd skipped a COBRA meeting and hadn't showed up to a Conference he was hosting they had to do something.....
    They just said on sky that he informed Downing Street and before he could send letter etc they announced it.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116

    Mr. Doethur, if she survives a no confidence motion there's a year minimum until the next such vote.

    She could resign, of course.

    What I meant was that even if she loses the vote, she remains PM until her successor is elected.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,299
    Just to remind you all IDS received a loud banging from the '22 just before he was ousted.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Anyone contemplating resigning is unlikely to do so if they want a tilt at the top job, for fear a disloyal resignation will cost them support in the contest.

    Helps May quite a bit. To cause her serious harm it requires a beast big enough for their resignation to matter but who is unlikely to want to be PM.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Doethur, if she survives a no confidence motion there's a year minimum until the next such vote.

    She could resign, of course.

    What I meant was that even if she loses the vote, she remains PM until her successor is elected.
    Wouldn't someone take over as a caretaker?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116
    jonny83 said:
    I can understand that there may be MPs who feel now maybe isn't the moment for one of Bevan's emotional spasms.

    I can't understand somebody who is a May 'loyalist.'

    That's like referring to Juncker having a sober moment.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,299
    A Tory MP writes

    Boris Johnson And David Davis Leave The Brexit Project Hanging By A Thread.

    If today makes my colleagues look devious, self-indulgent, and incompetent - it's because they are.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-resigns_uk_5b438b25e4b0c523e2615ece?ncid=tweetlnkukhpmg00000008
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Doethur, ah, right.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Doethur, if she survives a no confidence motion there's a year minimum until the next such vote.

    She could resign, of course.

    What I meant was that even if she loses the vote, she remains PM until her successor is elected.
    Wouldn't someone take over as a caretaker?
    Not unless she resigns as PM. She would then have to nominate her successor anyway, which would be awkward as it couldn't be anybody standing in the leadership election and it is unlikely anyone else would have both the ability and support to do the job.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Good riddance to Boris.... I see DD thinks he (BJ) shouldn't have resigned... I thought his chance of doing so honourably was over Heathrow but blew that too.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Scott_P said:
    That’s no shock after seeing her twitter last night....
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,299
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Doethur, if she survives a no confidence motion there's a year minimum until the next such vote.

    She could resign, of course.

    What I meant was that even if she loses the vote, she remains PM until her successor is elected.
    Wouldn't someone take over as a caretaker?
    Nope.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,299
    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    So Gove or Hunt as Foreign Secretary? Doubt it’ll be Hague being in the other place. Lidington also possible. Who else?

    Fox, as a reward for his loyalty.
    Yep, certainly a contender.
    He's also been very pragmatic about Brexit, I had him down in the hardline camp.
    That’s also true: may be the front-runner then. We should know very soon.
    Plus he was Shadow Foreign Secretary under Micky Howard, all be it for 7 months.

    Who would have thought there'd be a day when you and I would be relieved at the prospect of Liam Fox becoming Foreign Secretary.
    Hadn’t thought about that!! Weird and wonderful times....
    I suspect at least one of us are getting absolutely smashed in Searcys next month.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Doethur, if she survives a no confidence motion there's a year minimum until the next such vote.

    She could resign, of course.

    What I meant was that even if she loses the vote, she remains PM until her successor is elected.
    Wouldn't someone take over as a caretaker?
    Nope.
    It is in many ways a rather serious constitutional flaw. If we had a PM die in office (which fortunately hasn't happened since 1865) if they were Tory there is currently no mechanism for appointing an interim successor (with Labour it wouldn't matter so much as the deputy leader automatically succeeds pending a leadership election and would be PM as well).

    Presumably the Cabinet would nominate someone from among themselves and notify the Sovereign via the Lord President of the Council, but it's all a bit clumsy.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Rees-Mogg has ruled himself out as being Foreign Sec.

    In a similar vein, I've ruled myself out of being Margot Robbie's ****buddy.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116

    Just to remind you all IDS received a loud banging from the '22 just before he was ousted.

    They banged him first.

    They stuffed him after?
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I wish the police would remove those idiots who are making a lot of noise in the background outside the Palace of Westminster.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    If Liam Fox is seriously being considered as Foreign Secretary then all Conservative wisecracks about the Labour front bench will look distinctly hollow.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,299
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Doethur, if she survives a no confidence motion there's a year minimum until the next such vote.

    She could resign, of course.

    What I meant was that even if she loses the vote, she remains PM until her successor is elected.
    Wouldn't someone take over as a caretaker?
    Nope.
    It is in many ways a rather serious constitutional flaw. If we had a PM die in office (which fortunately hasn't happened since 1865) if they were Tory there is currently no mechanism for appointing an interim successor (with Labour it wouldn't matter so much as the deputy leader automatically succeeds pending a leadership election and would be PM as well).

    Presumably the Cabinet would nominate someone from among themselves and notify the Sovereign via the Lord President of the Council, but it's all a bit clumsy.
    I was told that there is a continuity of government plan in place.

    During the coalition if something happened to Dave the Tory party would nominate William Hague to be Prime Minister until the Tories had elected someone.

    I think had Dave remained an MP he'd be the William Hague.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Meanwhile, here’s Farage making things all about him:

    https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1016358876248203264?s=21
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,214

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    So Gove or Hunt as Foreign Secretary? Doubt it’ll be Hague being in the other place. Lidington also possible. Who else?

    Fox, as a reward for his loyalty.
    Yep, certainly a contender.
    He's also been very pragmatic about Brexit, I had him down in the hardline camp.
    That’s also true: may be the front-runner then. We should know very soon.
    Plus he was Shadow Foreign Secretary under Micky Howard, all be it for 7 months.

    Who would have thought there'd be a day when you and I would be relieved at the prospect of Liam Fox becoming Foreign Secretary.
    Hadn’t thought about that!! Weird and wonderful times....
    I suspect at least one of us are getting absolutely smashed in Searcys next month.
    But you’re a good Muslim boy, and I’m an even better catholic boy. Point me to the correct train...
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116
    JackW said:

    If Liam Fox is seriously being considered as Foreign Secretary then all Conservative wisecracks about the Labour front bench will look distinctly hollow.

    Now come on. He would be a much saner appointment than 'Colonel' Emily Thornberry, '£30 a year pay' Abbott, Laura 'I'm a nice person except I hate all intelligent humans' Pidcock and Keir 'I was a great DPP apart from all those prosecutions I screwed up' Starmer.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,299
    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    So Gove or Hunt as Foreign Secretary? Doubt it’ll be Hague being in the other place. Lidington also possible. Who else?

    Fox, as a reward for his loyalty.
    Yep, certainly a contender.
    He's also been very pragmatic about Brexit, I had him down in the hardline camp.
    That’s also true: may be the front-runner then. We should know very soon.
    Plus he was Shadow Foreign Secretary under Micky Howard, all be it for 7 months.

    Who would have thought there'd be a day when you and I would be relieved at the prospect of Liam Fox becoming Foreign Secretary.
    Hadn’t thought about that!! Weird and wonderful times....
    I suspect at least one of us are getting absolutely smashed in Searcys next month.
    But you’re a good Muslim boy, and I’m an even better catholic boy. Point me to the correct train...
    The modern day Tory party are enough to drive a good Muslim boy to drink.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Doethur, if she survives a no confidence motion there's a year minimum until the next such vote.

    She could resign, of course.

    What I meant was that even if she loses the vote, she remains PM until her successor is elected.
    Wouldn't someone take over as a caretaker?
    Nope.
    It is in many ways a rather serious constitutional flaw. If we had a PM die in office (which fortunately hasn't happened since 1865) if they were Tory there is currently no mechanism for appointing an interim successor (with Labour it wouldn't matter so much as the deputy leader automatically succeeds pending a leadership election and would be PM as well).

    Presumably the Cabinet would nominate someone from among themselves and notify the Sovereign via the Lord President of the Council, but it's all a bit clumsy.
    I was told that there is a continuity of government plan in place.

    During the coalition if something happened to Dave the Tory party would nominate William Hague to be Prime Minister until the Tories had elected someone.

    I think had Dave remained an MP he'd be the William Hague.
    Well, that would be sensible.

    The Tories joining the modern age and having a Deputy Leader would be more sensible.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116
    Scott_P said:
    They'll just leave by the South Gate instead...
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Certainly reads like a resignation letter of someone intending to mount a leadership campaign if possible. Very damning of May's position.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,299
    When Boris talks about the dream is dying he's talking about his leadership/PM ambitions right?
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    If Liam Fox is seriously being considered as Foreign Secretary then all Conservative wisecracks about the Labour front bench will look distinctly hollow.

    Now come on. He would be a much saner appointment than 'Colonel' Emily Thornberry, '£30 a year pay' Abbott, Laura 'I'm a nice person except I hate all intelligent humans' Pidcock and Keir 'I was a great DPP apart from all those prosecutions I screwed up' Starmer.
    I'd be reasonably content for Liam Fox to remain in government but only as Minister for Spare Room Bookings (Male Division).
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1016371222936944642

    There is an opportunity for someone, anyone, to stand up and point out that the charlatans and mountebanks that championed Brexit during the campaign are all running away from it.

    If they can't stomach it, why should the rest of us?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116
    In many ways this may be helpful for the country. It leaves the EU unable to demand more concessions - the political situation here means they will have to take or leave this, and since all the way through they have said one thing and instantly done another forcing a decision on them would be no bad thing (as long as they don't go for Leave, which has caused enough bloody problems already).

    Similarly, I suspect most people will be happy with a semi Brexit, at any rate to start with. Contrary to the kerfuffle over a Northern Ireland backstop, we can diverge over time because that clause is not binding on us (even if the EU or Ireland think it is) and moreover, would require the EU to try and activate it which I think they would draw back from unless we did something really egregious like legalising slavery.

    Finally, it has brought May's increasingly exhausted premiership within measureable distance of its end (and not in an Orwellian sense). Although much depends on her successor, with both her and Corbyn discredited and bereft of ideas, that allows for some fresh leadership to emerge that is badly needed. Raab and Javid seem likely candidates and both have undeniable strengths (although many thought that of May too).
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,299
    There's not an actual alternative plan in Boris Johnson's two page letter to Mrs May.

    That tells you all you need to know about Brexit.
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    I was just thinking: this can't be a really important crisis, because OGH is still around. Or is he on holiday at home?

    Good evening, everyone.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    There's not an actual alternative plan in Boris Johnson's two page letter to Mrs May.

    That tells you all you need to know about Brexit.

    It was only ever an ego trip for BoZo
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,299

    NEW THREAD

This discussion has been closed.