I don't think we're going to have a referendum before Brexit Day, don't think one would achieve anything and don't advocate one. However after today I do wonder if we'll need one before End State Day. At the very least we'll need a GE and as that isn't scheduled till 2022 I can't see End Sate coming into force till 2023 at the earliest. The next stage of this is lengthening the Transition, even if that means calling the period between the current end of Transition and the start of End State something else.
As an aside I do think it's the Brexit Ultras on PB who have understood what Chequers proposes not our tactical Brexit pragmatists. If you read Chequers properly as to what it will mean in the real legal world as opposed to the spin then add on the enormous extra concessions the EU will require to accept the Cherry picking then it is key regards ' Vassal State '. Anyone who finds the red lines it breaches should be trying to kill it now. Because once the White Paper is published it becomes settled " in the price " and you can't stop it without bringing the PM down. As they've delayed publication for a few days you've got a week. I'm not convinced today helps that much as it's become a process story about the way two shambolic figures shambolically resigned. But until White Paper publication it's in play.
The other area where I think PB Brexit Ultras are right is being open to the possibility/necessity of a Corbyn government. In the end I couldn't bring myself to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party last year. But I now recognise that was a mistake. I live in a Con held Con/Lab marginal and this government needs a head shot.
Suffering can be redemptive and the horror of 5 years of Corbynism may be the cleansing act the nation needs. Certainly if we end up with the hardest of Brexits the pain and misery should be shared widely and Corbyn woukd certainly achieve that if nothing else. We're in uncharted political waters and as yesterday brought into focus uncharted waters may very well mean uncharted moral choices.
I haven't a clue what's coming next. Has anyone else?! All I think I can pin to is this:
1. The cabinet is not, contrary to some pb-er, stronger now. A group of like minded yes people doesn't make it stronger. She has lost a vital part of her party. And, thankfully for Brexiteers, she can't afford to do that. They may now be very grateful for her almighty cock up last year.
2. Theresa May isn't going to get her polished turd through parliament. Losing the will of the Brexiteers means her legislation is hereafter doomed
3. The Tories will plunge in the polls: watch it happen over the next 4 to 6 weeks (fallout takes time). The consequence of that may well be May's downfall
4. We all say Theresa May is a survivor. In reality, no-one survives forever in politics. Her downfall will come. It's just a question of when.
5. If this derails England this week no-one will ever forgive any of the politicians involved. Period. As per today's Sun.
Boris is no loss. But the top 4 ministers are now Remainers led by a nonentity who has shat in the soup.
Why bother voting to re-elect them ?
I think Mrs May is assuming that you’ll vote blue to stop Corbyn becoming PM.
.... as she did in 2017 when she was saved by the collapse of UKIP. Hang on though.....
"Mr Farage pointed out that the tenure of Gerard Batten, the current leader of Ukip, will come to an end in March 2019 - the same month when Article 50 ends.The MEP added: "Unless Brexit is back on track by then, I will have to seriously consider putting my name forward to return as Ukip leader. I can ensure any Conservatives listening to this, sitting in marginal seats, who are not prepared to honour the wishes of the electorate, I will make damn sure that you all lose your seats There are millions on Conservative voters who are very unhappy indeed.”
For each marginal, if more people flip Tory -> UKIP over perceived BINO than flip Labour -> Tory over fear of Corbyn, seats go Labour. The Con MPs will overestimate the fear of Labour and underestimate the anger of BINO - they need to look at their members and activists and realise that they cannot control this. People will have an emotional response to this situation that will wash them away if they get it wrong.
I've never voted UKIP and loathe much of what they're about. But I am now so peed off with May's turd of a proposal and her cack-handed way of shovelling it through the cabinet at Chequers (I've worked with a f-ing useless leader like that and it makes me want to vomit) that I would actually right now consider voting for them.
Theresa's off to get her next set of orders from Merkel tomorrow.
Will the Tory Brexiteers move against her while she's out of the country?
Hmmm interesting ... Paris 1990 anyone?
And just remember that for all the truth of Mike's remarks of what they need to topple her ... Thatcher was felled even though she actually won the first round vote.
What comes next ? asks Handymandy. Opposition to Chequers becomes the Corbynism of the Right. 50 to 80 MPs but fought as an extra parliamentry campaign. All the things that made the Maastricht rebellion a game with rules are gone now. Social media, crowd funding, atomisation, postmodernism, direct democracy mean the NeoBrexiters can and will fight outside parliament. And ascChequers is about End State it will last years until the End State agreement is passed.
14% thought that the Chequers plan was good for Britain, 33% bad and 53% did not know. 27% said that the compromise respected the referendum result, 29% said that it did not respect it and 44% said that they did not know.
Looks like noone likes the Chequers deal
But also that no-one has a viable alternative other than EEA+CU or full Remain.
Lies, and I will call you out every time I see you claiming it.
Steve Baker made it clear that the EU had agreed they would accept a CETA deal. Remainers don't want it.
The EU has - in fact - published exactly what you say in a slide:
Thanks, Robert, for the reminder. My position has been all along that we should have told the EU our red lines and asked them what they could do with those, then end up with a CETA plus, negotiating as much more than the Canadians did as the market would bear. Seems we have lost 18 months to get to the very obvious starting point.
What comes next ? asks Handymandy. Opposition to Chequers becomes the Corbynism of the Right. 50 to 80 MPs but fought as an extra parliamentry campaign. All the things that made the Maastricht rebellion a game with rules are gone now. Social media, crowd funding, atomisation, postmodernism, direct democracy mean the NeoBrexiters can and will fight outside parliament. And ascChequers is about End State it will last years until the End State agreement is passed.
Alternatively, it’s 1848 all over again. The bitter-enders have formented revolution, found that they can’t control it and run. Only this time to Canada it appears. The elite, which now appears to be anyone who is not ESN, is left to clear up the mess they leave behind.
14% thought that the Chequers plan was good for Britain, 33% bad and 53% did not know. 27% said that the compromise respected the referendum result, 29% said that it did not respect it and 44% said that they did not know.
Looks like noone likes the Chequers deal
But also that no-one has a viable alternative other than EEA+CU or full Remain.
Lies, and I will call you out every time I see you claiming it.
Steve Baker made it clear that the EU had agreed they would accept a CETA deal. Remainers don't want it.
The EU has - in fact - published exactly what you say in a slide:
Thanks, Robert, for the reminder. My position has been all along that we should have told the EU our red lines and asked them what they could do with those, then end up with a CETA plus, negotiating as much more than the Canadians did as the market would bear. Seems we have lost 18 months to get to the very obvious starting point.
There are two (and a half) reasons why that has not happened :
Little bit disappointed the odds on Hunt haven't moved in further. If May is challenged and loses a VoNC, it will need remainders to feel she can't unite the party any more and vote against her.
Tories lose 9 seats leaving them 17 short Richmond Park and St Ives to LDs Stirling to SNP Chipping Barnet, Pudsey, Southampton Itchen, Hastings and Rye, Preseli, Thurrock to Lab.
Boris is no loss. But the top 4 ministers are now Remainers led by a nonentity who has shat in the soup.
Why bother voting to re-elect them ?
I think Mrs May is assuming that you’ll vote blue to stop Corbyn becoming PM.
.... as she did in 2017 when she was saved by the collapse of UKIP. Hang on though.....
"Mr Farage pointed out that the tenure of Gerard Batten, the current leader of Ukip, will come to an end in March 2019 - the same month when Article 50 ends.The MEP added: "Unless Brexit is back on track by then, I will have to seriously consider putting my name forward to return as Ukip leader. I can ensure any Conservatives listening to this, sitting in marginal seats, who are not prepared to honour the wishes of the electorate, I will make damn sure that you all lose your seats There are millions on Conservative voters who are very unhappy indeed.”
For each marginal, if more people flip Tory -> UKIP over perceived BINO than flip Labour -> Tory over fear of Corbyn, seats go Labour. The Con MPs will overestimate the fear of Labour and underestimate the anger of BINO - they need to look at their members and activists and realise that they cannot control this. People will have an emotional response to this situation that will wash them away if they get it wrong.
I've never voted UKIP and loathe much of what they're about. But I am now so peed off with May's turd of a proposal and her cack-handed way of shovelling it through the cabinet at Chequers (I've worked with a f-ing useless leader like that and it makes me want to vomit) that I would actually right now consider voting for them.
14% thought that the Chequers plan was good for Britain, 33% bad and 53% did not know. 27% said that the compromise respected the referendum result, 29% said that it did not respect it and 44% said that they did not know.
Looks like noone likes the Chequers deal
But also that no-one has a viable alternative other than EEA+CU or full Remain.
Lies, and I will call you out every time I see you claiming it.
Steve Baker made it clear that the EU had agreed they would accept a CETA deal. Remainers don't want it.
The EU has - in fact - published exactly what you say in a slide:
Thanks, Robert, for the reminder. My position has been all along that we should have told the EU our red lines and asked them what they could do with those, then end up with a CETA plus, negotiating as much more than the Canadians did as the market would bear. Seems we have lost 18 months to get to the very obvious starting point.
A CETA or equivalent is on the table. It won't be very Plus, if at all. The bigger problem is that it's excessively Minus compared with EU membership. Brexit was won on s narrow margin on that promise that there would be no cost. CETA represents a big cost with the probable high profile loss of car and aircraft manufacturing as well as the loss of London as the dominant financial centre (Although the latter is probably gone under any Brexit scenario). Some farmers would also go bankrupt. There would be general economic malaise due to a lack of investment.
CETA also exposes Irish borders where you have to choose between a hard border across fields in Ireland or on the Irish Sea. It's a real problem despite Leavers downplaying it.
Our options broadly are Fuck Business (Canada); Vassal State ( Norway) including customs union, which deals with the Irish border problem; acting against democracy (EU membership) which on any rational measure is the best option except it's the only option that has been formally and clearly ruled out.
All our options are really bad but we have to choose one of them. We're not facing up to reality yet.I'm not including No Deal or WTO because that's the absence of a solution.
Listening to the podcast, even knowing that the Tory members are much keener on Brexit than the general populace, I am surprised they truly do believe no deal is better than a soft deal to quite the extent that they do. They certainly believe that line a lot more than May did.
The other area where I think PB Brexit Ultras are right is being open to the possibility/necessity of a Corbyn government. In the end I couldn't bring myself to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party last year. But I now recognise that was a mistake. I live in a Con held Con/Lab marginal and this government needs a head shot.
Suffering can be redemptive and the horror of 5 years of Corbynism may be the cleansing act the nation needs. Certainly if we end up with the hardest of Brexits the pain and misery should be shared widely and Corbyn woukd certainly achieve that if nothing else. We're in uncharted political waters and as yesterday brought into focus uncharted waters may very well mean uncharted moral choices.
Why are you assuming it would only be five years? Corbyn is hard left: the first thing he would do is change the rules to make it much harder to get rid of him or his successors.
The other area where I think PB Brexit Ultras are right is being open to the possibility/necessity of a Corbyn government. In the end I couldn't bring myself to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party last year. But I now recognise that was a mistake. I live in a Con held Con/Lab marginal and this government needs a head shot.
Suffering can be redemptive and the horror of 5 years of Corbynism may be the cleansing act the nation needs. Certainly if we end up with the hardest of Brexits the pain and misery should be shared widely and Corbyn woukd certainly achieve that if nothing else. We're in uncharted political waters and as yesterday brought into focus uncharted waters may very well mean uncharted moral choices.
Why are you assuming it would only be five years? Corbyn is hard left: the first thing he would do is change the rules to make it much harder to get rid of him or his successors.
He has often expressed his admiration for Chavez, but in fairness I don't think we would see quite the levels of fraud, intimidation and naked bullying of opponents under Corbyn that we did under Chavez and especially Maduro.
His age would also make it more difficult for him to entrench himself, and the fact that all his vaguely intelligent Shadow Cabinet ministers are also quite old makes it less likely a successor could last long.
Boris is no loss. But the top 4 ministers are now Remainers led by a nonentity who has shat in the soup.
Why bother voting to re-elect them ?
I think Mrs May is assuming that you’ll vote blue to stop Corbyn becoming PM.
.... as she did in 2017 when she was saved by the collapse of UKIP. Hang on though.....
"Mr Farage pointed out that the tenure of Gerard Batten, the current leader of Ukip, will come to an end in March 2019 - the same month when Article 50 ends.The MEP added: "Unless Brexit is back on track by then, I will have to seriously consider putting my name forward to return as Ukip leader. I can ensure any Conservatives listening to this, sitting in marginal seats, who are not prepared to honour the wishes of the electorate, I will make damn sure that you all lose your seats There are millions on Conservative voters who are very unhappy indeed.”
For each marginal, if more people flip Tory -> UKIP over perceived BINO than flip Labour -> Tory over fear of Corbyn, seats go Labour. The Con MPs will overestimate the fear of Labour and underestimate the anger of BINO - they need to look at their members and activists and realise that they cannot control this. People will have an emotional response to this situation that will wash them away if they get it wrong.
I've never voted UKIP and loathe much of what they're about. But I am now so peed off with May's turd of a proposal and her cack-handed way of shovelling it through the cabinet at Chequers (I've worked with a f-ing useless leader like that and it makes me want to vomit) that I would actually right now consider voting for them.
May has to go
You should follow your feelings. Do it!
He should. People who cannot face up to tough choices may as well opt out of the political process altogether.
DD and Moggsy have each expressed support for May. The only ones rooting for a VONC are the headbangers for ideological reasons that include the prospect of a Corbyn government as a "cleanser", and Boris for personal reasons. They number less than 48. In any case, May would comfortably win a VONC leaving her in a stronger position. It's not going to happen.
The other area where I think PB Brexit Ultras are right is being open to the possibility/necessity of a Corbyn government. In the end I couldn't bring myself to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party last year. But I now recognise that was a mistake. I live in a Con held Con/Lab marginal and this government needs a head shot.
Suffering can be redemptive and the horror of 5 years of Corbynism may be the cleansing act the nation needs. Certainly if we end up with the hardest of Brexits the pain and misery should be shared widely and Corbyn woukd certainly achieve that if nothing else. We're in uncharted political waters and as yesterday brought into focus uncharted waters may very well mean uncharted moral choices.
Why are you assuming it would only be five years? Corbyn is hard left: the first thing he would do is change the rules to make it much harder to get rid of him or his successors.
Could even be PM Corbyn followed by PM Farage at this rate
First she got rid of Osborne then she got rid of Boris, she's doing the nation a favour.
To centrist and moderate Remainers May's Cabinet looks far more like a Cameron cabinet today than it did on Sunday evening. Remainers are in the big 4 jobs PM, Home Secretary, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary as they have not been since the EU referendum.
May will be gambelling any Remainer Cameroons who voted Labour or LD or stayed at home at the last general election will return to the fold to offset any Tory voters who will depart for UKIP, Labour or simply stay at home after her Chequers deal.
Yesterday was the day May's 2 year act portraying being a hard Brexiteer finally died, she is back to being a Cameroon in all but name (minus Osborne who still hates her for personal reasons not surprisingly) and hence she was in such deep discussions with Dave last week
Boris is no loss. But the top 4 ministers are now Remainers led by a nonentity who has shat in the soup.
Why bother voting to re-elect them ?
I think Mrs May is assuming that you’ll vote blue to stop Corbyn becoming PM.
.... as she did in 2017 when she was saved by the collapse of UKIP. Hang on though.....
"Mr Farage pointed out that the tenure of Gerard Batten, the current leader of Ukip, will come to an end in March 2019 - the same month when Article 50 ends.The MEP added: "Unless Brexit is back on track by then, I will have to seriously consider putting my name forward to return as Ukip leader. I can ensure any Conservatives listening to this, sitting in marginal seats, who are not prepared to honour the wishes of the electorate, I will make damn sure that you all lose your seats There are millions on Conservative voters who are very unhappy indeed.”
For each marginal, if more people flip Tory -> UKIP over perceived BINO than flip Labour -> Tory over fear of Corbyn, seats go Labour. The Con MPs will overestimate the fear of Labour and underestimate the anger of BINO - they need to look at their members and activists and realise that they cannot control this. People will have an emotional response to this situation that will wash them away if they get it wrong.
I've never voted UKIP and loathe much of what they're about. But I am now so peed off with May's turd of a proposal and her cack-handed way of shovelling it through the cabinet at Chequers (I've worked with a f-ing useless leader like that and it makes me want to vomit) that I would actually right now consider voting for them.
May has to go
You should follow your feelings. Do it!
He should. People who cannot face up to tough choices may as well opt out of the political process altogether.
I'm shocked - two anti-Tories encouraging Tories to vote UKIP.
The other area where I think PB Brexit Ultras are right is being open to the possibility/necessity of a Corbyn government. In the end I couldn't bring myself to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party last year. But I now recognise that was a mistake. I live in a Con held Con/Lab marginal and this government needs a head shot.
Suffering can be redemptive and the horror of 5 years of Corbynism may be the cleansing act the nation needs. Certainly if we end up with the hardest of Brexits the pain and misery should be shared widely and Corbyn woukd certainly achieve that if nothing else. We're in uncharted political waters and as yesterday brought into focus uncharted waters may very well mean uncharted moral choices.
Why are you assuming it would only be five years? Corbyn is hard left: the first thing he would do is change the rules to make it much harder to get rid of him or his successors.
He has often expressed his admiration for Chavez, but in fairness I don't think we would see quite the levels of fraud, intimidation and naked bullying of opponents under Corbyn that we did under Chavez and especially Maduro.
His age would also make it more difficult for him to entrench himself, and the fact that all his vaguely intelligent Shadow Cabinet ministers are also quite old makes it less likely a successor could last long.
It would probably start with something like votes at sixteen, then “reform” of the House of Lords. In the wake of Leveson he could probably get away with press regulation which would, in time, lead to the banning of journalists with unacceptable views...
Well if the Tories are down 2 and Labour are down 1 and the LDs are unchanged which party could those voters have gone to?
It could not possibly be a purple one could it?
Could be Green. If people do switch blue to purple they're gonna get Red - which tells me that is bojo showing his true colour while throwing his toys out of the pram.
The other area where I think PB Brexit Ultras are right is being open to the possibility/necessity of a Corbyn government. In the end I couldn't bring myself to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party last year. But I now recognise that was a mistake. I live in a Con held Con/Lab marginal and this government needs a head shot.
Suffering can be redemptive and the horror of 5 years of Corbynism may be the cleansing act the nation needs. Certainly if we end up with the hardest of Brexits the pain and misery should be shared widely and Corbyn woukd certainly achieve that if nothing else. We're in uncharted political waters and as yesterday brought into focus uncharted waters may very well mean uncharted moral choices.
Why are you assuming it would only be five years? Corbyn is hard left: the first thing he would do is change the rules to make it much harder to get rid of him or his successors.
Could even be PM Corbyn followed by PM Farage at this rate
At times the term 'useful idiot' really doesn't do you justice.
Boris is no loss. But the top 4 ministers are now Remainers led by a nonentity who has shat in the soup.
Why bother voting to re-elect them ?
I think Mrs May is assuming that you’ll vote blue to stop Corbyn becoming PM.
.... as she did in 2017 when she was saved by the collapse of UKIP. Hang on though.....
"Mr Farage pointed out that the tenure of Gerard Batten, the current leader of Ukip, will come to an end in March 2019 - the same month when Article 50 ends.The MEP added: "Unless Brexit is back on track by then, I will have to seriously consider putting my name forward to return as Ukip leader. I can ensure any Conservatives listening to this, sitting in marginal seats, who are not prepared to honour the wishes of the electorate, I will make damn sure that you all lose your seats There are millions on Conservative voters who are very unhappy indeed.”
For each marginal, if more people flip Tory -> UKIP over perceived BINO than flip Labour -> Tory over fear of Corbyn, seats go Labour. The Con MPs will overestimate the fear of Labour and underestimate the anger of BINO - they need to look at their members and activists and realise that they cannot control this. People will have an emotional response to this situation that will wash them away if they get it wrong.
I've never voted UKIP and loathe much of what they're about. But I am now so peed off with May's turd of a proposal and her cack-handed way of shovelling it through the cabinet at Chequers (I've worked with a f-ing useless leader like that and it makes me want to vomit) that I would actually right now consider voting for them.
May has to go
You should follow your feelings. Do it!
So he should. The more chaotic the better should be the aim. It's the best hope of Brexit disapearing without trace. It must be obvious by now that any other outcome will lead to strife for decades to come. Cameron should be hung from Westminster Bridge
The other area where I think PB Brexit Ultras are right is being open to the possibility/necessity of a Corbyn government. In the end I couldn't bring myself to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party last year. But I now recognise that was a mistake. I live in a Con held Con/Lab marginal and this government needs a head shot.
Suffering can be redemptive and the horror of 5 years of Corbynism may be the cleansing act the nation needs. Certainly if we end up with the hardest of Brexits the pain and misery should be shared widely and Corbyn woukd certainly achieve that if nothing else. We're in uncharted political waters and as yesterday brought into focus uncharted waters may very well mean uncharted moral choices.
Why are you assuming it would only be five years? Corbyn is hard left: the first thing he would do is change the rules to make it much harder to get rid of him or his successors.
Could even be PM Corbyn followed by PM Farage at this rate
At times the term 'useful idiot' really doesn't do you justice.
In the current political climate it is absurd to rule anything out
The other area where I think PB Brexit Ultras are right is being open to the possibility/necessity of a Corbyn government. In the end I couldn't bring myself to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party last year. But I now recognise that was a mistake. I live in a Con held Con/Lab marginal and this government needs a head shot.
Suffering can be redemptive and the horror of 5 years of Corbynism may be the cleansing act the nation needs. Certainly if we end up with the hardest of Brexits the pain and misery should be shared widely and Corbyn woukd certainly achieve that if nothing else. We're in uncharted political waters and as yesterday brought into focus uncharted waters may very well mean uncharted moral choices.
Why are you assuming it would only be five years? Corbyn is hard left: the first thing he would do is change the rules to make it much harder to get rid of him or his successors.
He has often expressed his admiration for Chavez, but in fairness I don't think we would see quite the levels of fraud, intimidation and naked bullying of opponents under Corbyn that we did under Chavez and especially Maduro.
His age would also make it more difficult for him to entrench himself, and the fact that all his vaguely intelligent Shadow Cabinet ministers are also quite old makes it less likely a successor could last long.
It would probably start with something like votes at sixteen, then “reform” of the House of Lords. In the wake of Leveson he could probably get away with press regulation which would, in time, lead to the banning of journalists with unacceptable views...
I don't disagree - but without massive de-selections there are way too many Labour MPs who'd block him if push came to shove on his more extreme measures. Votes at 16 where it has been applied has not produced the expected results.
The other area where I think PB Brexit Ultras are right is being open to the possibility/necessity of a Corbyn government. In the end I couldn't bring myself to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party last year. But I now recognise that was a mistake. I live in a Con held Con/Lab marginal and this government needs a head shot.
Suffering can be redemptive and the horror of 5 years of Corbynism may be the cleansing act the nation needs. Certainly if we end up with the hardest of Brexits the pain and misery should be shared widely and Corbyn woukd certainly achieve that if nothing else. We're in uncharted political waters and as yesterday brought into focus uncharted waters may very well mean uncharted moral choices.
Why are you assuming it would only be five years? Corbyn is hard left: the first thing he would do is change the rules to make it much harder to get rid of him or his successors.
He has often expressed his admiration for Chavez, but in fairness I don't think we would see quite the levels of fraud, intimidation and naked bullying of opponents under Corbyn that we did under Chavez and especially Maduro.
His age would also make it more difficult for him to entrench himself, and the fact that all his vaguely intelligent Shadow Cabinet ministers are also quite old makes it less likelya successor could last long.
It would probably start with something like votes at sixteen, then “reform” of the House of Lords. In the wake of Leveson he could probably get away with press regulation which would, in time, lead to the banning of journalists with unacceptable views...
At age 69, he wouldn't have time to do much of that. It took Chavez and Maduro 18 years and the unequivocal backing of the army. Corbyn might have two and the Army hate him.
Well if the Tories are down 2 and Labour are down 1 and the LDs are unchanged which party could those voters have gone to?
It could not possibly be a purple one could it?
Could be Green. If people do switch blue to purple they're gonna get Red - which tells me that is bojo showing his true colour while throwing his toys out of the pram.
That depends, if 2 Tories switch to UKIP for every Labour voter who switches to UKIP that might be the case but neither main party would have much of a mandate
First she got rid of Osborne then she got rid of Boris, she's doing the nation a favour.
To centrist and moderate Remainers May's Cabinet looks far more like a Cameron cabinet today than it did on Sunday evening. Remainers are in the big 4 jobs PM, Home Secretary, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary as they have not been until 6th June.
May will be gambelling any Remainer Cameroons who voted Labour or LD or stayed at home at the last general election will return to the fold to offset any Tory voters who will depart for UKIP, Labour or simply stay at home after her Chequers deal.
Yesterday was the day May's 2 year act portraying being a hard Brexiteer finally died, she is back to being a Cameroon on all but name (minus Osborne who still hates her for personal reasons not surprisingly) and hence she was in such deep discussions with Dave last week
that's the tories own fault though. They keep selecting MPs who are out of sync with their own supporters.
The modern conservative party is run by internationalist corporatists with a London bias, they have lost contact with nation first, small business voters in the provinces.
Camron couls still quite happily have been PM if he had learned to balance the two, instead he chose to demonise chunks of his natural supporters and looked surprised when they stopped voting for him.
Boris is no loss. But the top 4 ministers are now Remainers led by a nonentity who has shat in the soup.
Why bother voting to re-elect them ?
I think Mrs May is assuming that you’ll vote blue to stop Corbyn becoming PM.
.... as she did in 2017 when she was saved by the collapse of UKIP. Hang on though.....
"Mr Farage pointed out that the tenure of Gerard Batten, the current leader of Ukip, will come to an end in March 2019 - the same month when Article 50 ends.The MEP added: "Unless Brexit is back on track by then, I will have to seriously consider putting my name forward to return as Ukip leader. I can ensure any Conservatives listening to this, sitting in marginal seats, who are not prepared to honour the wishes of the electorate, I will make damn sure that you all lose your seats There are millions on Conservative voters who are very unhappy indeed.”
For each marginal, if more people flip Tory -> UKIP over perceived BINO than flip Labour -> Tory over fear of Corbyn, seats go Labour. The Con MPs will overestimate the fear of Labour and underestimate the anger of BINO - they need to look at their members and activists and realise that they cannot control this. People will have an emotional response to this situation that will wash them away if they get it wrong.
I've never voted UKIP and loathe much of what they're about. But I am now so peed off with May's turd of a proposal and her cack-handed way of shovelling it through the cabinet at Chequers (I've worked with a f-ing useless leader like that and it makes me want to vomit) that I would actually right now consider voting for them.
May has to go
You should follow your feelings. Do it!
So he should. The more chaotic the better should be the aim. It's the best hope of Brexit disapearing without trace. It must be obvious by now that any other outcome will lead to strife for decades to come. Cameron should be hung from Westminster Bridge
And now a third loony lefty joins in - if you gonna be devious you need more subtlety.
The first is the A50 withdrawal deal by 29 March 2018. This includes legal detail on financial costs, EU citizens and NI backstop. Now that Mrs May has apparently conceded the EU version of the NI backstop I think the only barriers to this deal going through are a) a "meaningful" vote in the UK parliament and b) agreement on the outline of the future relationship. The latter will not be full of fine legal detail but will be short and consist of ambiguous fudge that the UK and EU can agree such as a "customs arrangement" and "common rules on standards".
With that in mind I think the EU could agree a version of the Chequers proposal that strips out the detail on eg maxfac and leaves a paragraph of fudge that May can agree to in order to complete the A50 agreement.
The second deal (the trade deal) will be negotiated during the transition period and I suspect will be full capitulation to Norway plus CU.
I also think there will be no VONC, no early GE, and that May will survive until at least end 2021.
Phew. Writing that out has clarified my mind but it could all change this afternoon!
Boris is no loss. But the top 4 ministers are now Remainers led by a nonentity who has shat in the soup.
Why bother voting to re-elect them ?
I think Mrs May is assuming that you’ll vote blue to stop Corbyn becoming PM.
.... as she did in 2017 when she was saved by the collapse of UKIP. Hang on though.....
"Mr Farage pointed out that the tenure of Gerard Batten, the current leader of Ukip, will come to an end in March 2019 - the same month when Article 50 ends.The MEP added: "Unless Brexit is back on track by then, I will have to seriously consider putting my name forward to return as Ukip leader. I can ensure any Conservatives listening to this, sitting in marginal seats, who are not prepared to honour the wishes of the electorate, I will make damn sure that you all lose your seats There are millions on Conservative voters who are very unhappy indeed.”
For each marginal, if more people flip Tory -> UKIP over perceived BINO than flip Labour -> Tory over fear of Corbyn, seats go Labour. The Con MPs will overestimate the fear of Labour and underestimate the anger of BINO - they need to look at their members and activists and realise that they cannot control this. People will have an emotional response to this situation that will wash them away if they get it wrong.
I've never voted UKIP and loathe much of what they're about. But I am now so peed off with May's turd of a proposal and her cack-handed way of shovelling it through the cabinet at Chequers (I've worked with a f-ing useless leader like that and it makes me want to vomit) that I would actually right now consider voting for them.
May has to go
You should follow your feelings. Do it!
So he should. The more chaotic the better should be the aim. It's the best hope of Brexit disapearing without trace. It must be obvious by now that any other outcome will lead to strife for decades to come. Cameron should be hung from Westminster Bridge
New career Roger ?
If youre heading a lynch mob perhaps we could all send you some more names
Mr. Doethur, how would the army prevent lowering the voting age, reforming the Lords, or buggering the free press?
It's not that. It was the fact that the Army were willing to support Chavez and (a) intimidate his opponents and (b) preserve public order by force that gave Chavez much of his power. It meant that it was very difficult to remove him.
It is theoretically possible the Intelligence services might do surveillance and reporting for Corbyn as the Luxembourgish security did under Juncker (he didn't know about that, honestly he didn't) but that's a far cry from what would be needed.
Corbyn would be Tsipras rather than Putin or Chavez. Not that any of those scenarios is encouraging economically.
The other area where I think PB Brexit Ultras are right is being open to the possibility/necessity of a Corbyn government. In the end I couldn't bring myself to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party last year. But I now recognise that was a mistake. I live in a Con held Con/Lab marginal and this government needs a head shot.
Suffering can be redemptive and the horror of 5 years of Corbynism may be the cleansing act the nation needs. Certainly if we end up with the hardest of Brexits the pain and misery should be shared widely and Corbyn woukd certainly achieve that if nothing else. We're in uncharted political waters and as yesterday brought into focus uncharted waters may very well mean uncharted moral choices.
Why are you assuming it would only be five years? Corbyn is hard left: the first thing he would do is change the rules to make it much harder to get rid of him or his successors.
He has often expressed his admiration for Chavez, but in fairness I don't think we would see quite the levels of fraud, intimidation and naked bullying of opponents under Corbyn that we did under Chavez and especially Maduro.
His age would also make it more difficult for him to entrench himself, and the fact that all his vaguely intelligent Shadow Cabinet ministers are also quite old makes it less likelya successor could last long.
It would probably start with something like votes at sixteen, then “reform” of the House of Lords. In the wake of Leveson he could probably get away with press regulation which would, in time, lead to the banning of journalists with unacceptable views...
At age 69, he wouldn't have time to do much of that. It took Chavez and Maduro 18 years and the unequivocal backing of the army. Corbyn might have two and the Army hate him.
The army take an oath of loyalty to the Crown not the PM so Corbyn would have to abolish the monarchy and declare himself President and demand the army take an oath of loyalty to him and the People's Republic if he wants to be a dictator.
Mr. Doethur, damaging democracy isn't a binary choice, though. As Erdogan has shown, it can be salami-sliced (although the sausage of liberty there has been reduced to a stub).
Corbyn wouldn't get a full-blown socialist dictatorship but he could still cause massive damage.
Lukaku 10/1 Sky, 9/1 generally for the Golden Boot (note that some bookies are betting on top scorer which will have different dead-heat rules). Yes, it looks like Harry Kane is home and hosed but Belgium vs France is likely to be an open game based on the rate both teams have conceded goals so far; France should win which would mean Belgium go to the third-place playoff which again is usually a high-scoring game.
The odds and standings (sorry I can't do tables!): 1/6 Kane England 6 Goals 0 Assist 9/1 Lukaku Belgium 4 Goals 1 Assist 25 Griezmann France 3 Goals 1 Assist 33 Mbappe France 3 Goals 0 Assist Hazard Belgium 2 Goals 2 Assists Modric Croatia 2 Goals 1 Assist Stones England 2 Goals 0 Assist https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup/top-scorers
It looks to me as if the match odds and outright odds are roughly correct. The days when England would invariably be too short are over now that football betting is global but this might be one of the two markets where that old adage still applies.
The other, and perhaps even more so, is the Golden Ball for best player of the tournament. Harry Kane is 7/2 which looks ludicrously short given he's not had an outstanding game or moment. Mbappe, Hazard and Modric all look far more likely but it normally goes to a finalist so things may look clearer in two days' time. Mbappe is the best player left in, Hazard looked masterful against Brazil, Luka Modric has almost single-handedly dragged Croatia's Sunday League team into the semi-finals. Against that, Harry Kane has taken some penalties.
First she got rid of Osborne then she got rid of Boris, she's doing the nation a favour.
To centrist and moderate Remainers May's Cabinet looks far more like a Cameron cabinet today than it did on Sunday evening. Remainers are in the big 4 jobs PM, Home Secretary, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary as they have not been until 6th June.
May will be gambelling any Remainer Cameroons who voted Labour or LD or stayed at home at the last general election will return to the fold to offset any Tory voters who will depart for UKIP, Labour or simply stay at home after her Chequers deal.
Yesterday was the day May's 2 year act portraying being a hard Brexiteer finally died, she is back to being a Cameroon on all but name (minus Osborne who still hates her for personal reasons not surprisingly) and hence she was in such deep discussions with Dave last week
that's the tories own fault though. They keep selecting MPs who are out of sync with their own supporters.
The modern conservative party is run by internationalist corporatists with a London bias, they have lost contact with nation first, small business voters in the provinces.
Camron couls still quite happily have been PM if he had learned to balance the two, instead he chose to demonise chunks of his natural supporters and looked surprised when they stopped voting for him.
You are correct, there is now a vast difference between the Tory membership and leadership and the Tory voting base and the leadership particularly over Brexit Corbyn for all his faults does not have with his membership and the Labour voting base.
Which leaves the Tories particularly vulnerable to a UKIP revival, especially if Farage makes good on his promise to return as UKIP leader next March if it really is BINO
Mr. Doethur, how would the army prevent lowering the voting age, reforming the Lords, or buggering the free press?
It's not that. It was the fact that the Army were willing to support Chavez and (a) intimidate his opponents and (b) preserve public order by force that gave Chavez much of his power. It meant that it was very difficult to remove him.
It is theoretically possible the Intelligence services might do surveillance and reporting for Corbyn as the Luxembourgish security did under Juncker (he didn't know about that, honestly he didn't) but that's a far cry from what would be needed.
Corbyn would be Tsipras rather than Putin or Chavez. Not that any of those scenarios is encouraging economically.
Of course we have to consider the new Mexican President Lopez Obrador who is a mate of Corbyn's too, the two have regularly stayed at each others homes.
How Mexico turns out could also be a test case as much as Greece or Venezuala
Paranoid much? Boris resigned less than 24 hours ago and already the pb Tories are panicking about Jeremy Corbyn setting up guillotines in Trafalgar Square.
First she got rid of Osborne then she got rid of Boris, she's doing the nation a favour.
To centrist and moderate Remainers May's Cabinet looks far more like a Cameron cabinet today than it did on Sunday evening. Remainers are in the big 4 jobs PM, Home Secretary, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary as they have not been until 6th June.
May will be gambelling any Remainer Cameroons who voted Labour or LD or stayed at home at the last general election will return to the fold to offset any Tory voters who will depart for UKIP, Labour or simply stay at home after her Chequers deal.
Yesterday was the day May's 2 year act portraying being a hard Brexiteer finally died, she is back to being a Cameroon on all but name (minus Osborne who still hates her for personal reasons not surprisingly) and hence she was in such deep discussions with Dave last week
that's the tories own fault though. They keep selecting MPs who are out of sync with their own supporters.
The modern conservative party is run by internationalist corporatists with a London bias, they have lost contact with nation first, small business voters in the provinces.
Camron couls still quite happily have been PM if he had learned to balance the two, instead he chose to demonise chunks of his natural supporters and looked surprised when they stopped voting for him.
You are correct, there is now a vast difference between the Tory membership and leadership and the Tory voting base and the leadership particularly over Brexit Corbyn for all his faults does not have with his membership and the Labour voting base.
Which leaves the Tories particularly vulnerable to a UKIP revival, especially if Farage makes good on his promise to return as UKIP leader next March if it really is BINO
The Tories have known this for a long time. Hence they keep their members away from decision making on policy and have made sure they don't get a full choice of candidates for the leadership.
If it has been left to Tory members, we would be currently steered through the political rapids by the wise and deft hand of Mrs Leadsom.
Boris is no loss. But the top 4 ministers are now Remainers led by a nonentity who has shat in the soup.
Why bother voting to re-elect them ?
I think Mrs May is assuming that you’ll vote blue to stop Corbyn becoming PM.
.... as she did in 2017 when she was saved by the collapse of UKIP. Hang on though.....
"Mr Farage pointed out that the tenure of Gerard Batten, the current leader of Ukip, will come to an end in March 2019 - the same month when Article 50 ends.The MEP added: "Unless Brexit is back on track by then, I will have to seriously consider putting my name forward to return as Ukip leader. I can ensure any Conservatives listening to this, sitting in marginal seats, who are not prepared to honour the wishes of the electorate, I will make damn sure that you all lose your seats There are millions on Conservative voters who are very unhappy indeed.”
For each marginal, if more people flip Tory -> UKIP over perceived BINO than flip Labour -> Tory over fear of Corbyn, seats go Labour. The Con MPs will overestimate the fear of Labour and underestimate the anger of BINO - they need to look at their members and activists and realise that they cannot control this. People will have an emotional response to this situation that will wash them away if they get it wrong.
I've never voted UKIP and loathe much of what they're about. But I am now so peed off with May's turd of a proposal and her cack-handed way of shovelling it through the cabinet at Chequers (I've worked with a f-ing useless leader like that and it makes me want to vomit) that I would actually right now consider voting for them.
May has to go
You should follow your feelings. Do it!
So he should. The more chaotic the better should be the aim. It's the best hope of Brexit disapearing without trace. It must be obvious by now that any other outcome will lead to strife for decades to come. Cameron should be hung from Westminster Bridge
New career Roger ?
If youre heading a lynch mob perhaps we could all send you some more names
Just a figure of speech. But there is something odious about lighting the blue touch paper and then sidling off leaving utter devastaion behind him. I think history will be much kinder to Blair and even Brown than it will be to Cameron.
For each marginal, if more people flip Tory -> UKIP over perceived BINO than flip Labour -> Tory over fear of Corbyn, seats go Labour. The Con MPs will overestimate the fear of Labour and underestimate the anger of BINO - they need to look at their members and activists and realise that they cannot control this. People will have an emotional response to this situation that will wash them away if they get it wrong.
I've never voted UKIP and loathe much of what they're about. But I am now so peed off with May's turd of a proposal and her cack-handed way of shovelling it through the cabinet at Chequers (I've worked with a f-ing useless leader like that and it makes me want to vomit) that I would actually right now consider voting for them.
May has to go
You should follow your feelings. Do it!
So he should. The more chaotic the better should be the aim. It's the best hope of Brexit disapearing without trace. It must be obvious by now that any other outcome will lead to strife for decades to come. Cameron should be hung from Westminster Bridge
New career Roger ?
If youre heading a lynch mob perhaps we could all send you some more names
Just a figure of speech. But there is something odious about lighting the blue touch paper and then sidling off leaving utter devastaion behind him. I think history will be much kinder to Blair and even Brown than it will be to Cameron.
Despite his lack of political skills and hubris on the economy, Brown will get credit for getting the world to act quickly to prevent the 2008/9 crisis turning into a full blown depression, even if it has involved entering uncharted territory from which after ten years we are still seeking an escape.
First she got rid of Osborne then she got rid of Boris, she's doing the nation a favour.
To centrist and moderate Remainers May's Cabinet looks far more like a Cameron cabinet today than it did on Sunday evening. Remainers are in the big 4 jobs PM, Home Secretary, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary as they have not been until 6th June.
May will be gambelling any Remainer Cameroons who voted Labour or LD or stayed at home at the last general election will return to the fold to offset any Tory voters who will depart for UKIP, Labour or simply stay at home after her Chequers deal.
Yesterday was the day May's 2 year act portraying being a hard Brexiteer finally died, she is back to being a Cameroon on all but name (minus Osborne who still hates her for personal reasons not surprisingly) and hence she was in such deep discussions with Dave last week
that's the tories own fault though. They keep selecting MPs who are out of sync with their own supporters.
The modern conservative party is run by internationalist corporatists with a London bias, they have lost contact with nation first, small business voters in the provinces.
Camron couls still quite happily have been PM if he had learned to balance the two, instead he chose to demonise chunks of his natural supporters and looked surprised when they stopped voting for him.
A curious account of David Cameron’s campaigning given that he fought two general elections and saw his party’s vote share and seat count increase in both.
For each marginal, if more people flip Tory -> UKIP over perceived BINO than flip Labour -> Tory over fear of Corbyn, seats go Labour. The Con MPs will overestimate the fear of Labour and underestimate the anger of BINO - they need to look at their members and activists and realise that they cannot control this. People will have an emotional response to this situation that will wash them away if they get it wrong.
I've never voted UKIP and loathe much of what they're about. But I am now so peed off with May's turd of a proposal and her cack-handed way of shovelling it through the cabinet at Chequers (I've worked with a f-ing useless leader like that and it makes me want to vomit) that I would actually right now consider voting for them.
May has to go
You should follow your feelings. Do it!
So he should. The more chaotic the better should be the aim. It's the best hope of Brexit disapearing without trace. It must be obvious by now that any other outcome will lead to strife for decades to come. Cameron should be hung from Westminster Bridge
New career Roger ?
If youre heading a lynch mob perhaps we could all send you some more names
Just a figure of speech. But there is something odious about lighting the blue touch paper and then sidling off leaving utter devastaion behind him. I think history will be much kinder to Blair and even Brown than it will be to Cameron.
Despite his lack of political skills and hubris on the economy, Brown will get credit for getting the world to act quickly to prevent the 2008/9 crisis turning into a full blown depression, even if it has involved entering uncharted territory from which after ten years we are still seeking an escape.
why would he get credit for having to repair his own cock up ?
The first is the A50 withdrawal deal by 29 March 2018. This includes legal detail on financial costs, EU citizens and NI backstop. Now that Mrs May has apparently conceded the EU version of the NI backstop I think the only barriers to this deal going through are a) a "meaningful" vote in the UK parliament and b) agreement on the outline of the future relationship. The latter will not be full of fine legal detail but will be short and consist of ambiguous fudge that the UK and EU can agree such as a "customs arrangement" and "common rules on standards".
With that in mind I think the EU could agree a version of the Chequers proposal that strips out the detail on eg maxfac and leaves a paragraph of fudge that May can agree to in order to complete the A50 agreement.
The second deal (the trade deal) will be negotiated during the transition period and I suspect will be full capitulation to Norway plus CU.
I also think there will be no VONC, no early GE, and that May will survive until at least end 2021.
Phew. Writing that out has clarified my mind but it could all change this afternoon!
I think this is spot on up to the point where May comes back from the October summit with a piece of paper hailing "Brexit in our time".
By that point it will be an unbeloved deal that doesn't command a majority in parliament, but that is nevertheless accepted as a triumph of diplomacy as the best possible form of Brexit to meet the mandate of the 2016 referendum.
May will simply pull off another coup de theatre and announce a second referendum to offer people the opportunity to flush away the "turd" way and remain. A landslide will be on the cards and the full extent of May's political genius will be plain for all to see.
For each marginal, if more people flip Tory -> UKIP over perceived BINO than flip Labour -> Tory over fear of Corbyn, seats go Labour. The Con MPs will overestimate the fear of Labour and underestimate the anger of BINO - they need to look at their members and activists and realise that they cannot control this. People will have an emotional response to this situation that will wash them away if they get it wrong.
I've never voted UKIP and loathe much of what they're about. But I am now so peed off with May's turd of a proposal and her cack-handed way of shovelling it through the cabinet at Chequers (I've worked with a f-ing useless leader like that and it makes me want to vomit) that I would actually right now consider voting for them.
May has to go
You should follow your feelings. Do it!
So he should. The more chaotic the better should be the aim. It's the best hope of Brexit disapearing without trace. It must be obvious by now that any other outcome will lead to strife for decades to come. Cameron should be hung from Westminster Bridge
New career Roger ?
If youre heading a lynch mob perhaps we could all send you some more names
Just a figure of speech. But there is something odious about lighting the blue touch paper and then sidling off leaving utter devastaion behind him. I think history will be much kinder to Blair and even Brown than it will be to Cameron.
Despite his lack of political skills and hubris on the economy, Brown will get credit for getting the world to act quickly to prevent the 2008/9 crisis turning into a full blown depression, even if it has involved entering uncharted territory from which after ten years we are still seeking an escape.
why would he get credit for having to repair his own cock up ?
You know already that isn't an objective statement.
Quite surprised that Liam Fox has not resigned as well. It has always been difficult to see what his job actually was but it is even less clear given the terms of the Chequers proposal. He has been remarkably quiet. Not a bad thing in itself of course.
Quite surprised that Liam Fox has not resigned as well. It has always been difficult to see what his job actually was but it is even less clear given the terms of the Chequers proposal. He has been remarkably quiet. Not a bad thing in itself of course.
Perhaps he is being canny. If/when Brussels throws Chequers back, his position may look very different.
Quite surprised that Liam Fox has not resigned as well. It has always been difficult to see what his job actually was but it is even less clear given the terms of the Chequers proposal. He has been remarkably quiet. Not a bad thing in itself of course.
Perhaps he is being canny. If/when Brussels throws Chequers back, his position may look very different.
F1: signs your star is rising #31: Ladbrokes have you at 8.5 to win next year's title.
Those are Leclerc's odds. Got to say, I wouldn't touch that as I think his odds will be longer come the Drivers' market (and backable each way). The 26 on him to get 3 or more titles may be worth considering.
Long term, rivals for Leclerc are likely to be Verstappen, Ricciardo and AN Other. If the two named fellows are at the same team and Leclerc becomes Ferrari's number one chap, that'll help him out rather a lot. That said, rule changes are coming fairly soon so his titles would need to either span the difference or all occur under the new rulebook.
First she got rid of Osborne then she got rid of Boris, she's doing the nation a favour.
To centrist and moderate Remainers May's Cabinet looks far more like a Cameron cabinet today than it did on Sunday evening. Remainers are in the big 4 jobs PM, Home Secretary, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary as they have not been until 6th June.
May will be gambelling any Remainer Cameroons who voted Labour or LD or stayed at home at the last general election will return to the fold to offset any Tory voters who will depart for UKIP, Labour or simply stay at home after her Chequers deal.
Yesterday was the day May's 2 year act portraying being a hard Brexiteer finally died, she is back to being a Cameroon on all but name (minus Osborne who still hates her for personal reasons not surprisingly) and hence she was in such deep discussions with Dave last week
that's the tories own fault though. They keep selecting MPs who are out of sync with their own supporters.
The modern conservative party is run by internationalist corporatists with a London bias, they have lost contact with nation first, small business voters in the provinces.
Camron couls still quite happily have been PM if he had learned to balance the two, instead he chose to demonise chunks of his natural supporters and looked surprised when they stopped voting for him.
A curious account of David Cameron’s campaigning given that he fought two general elections and saw his party’s vote share and seat count increase in both.
Not at all
he should have won 2010 by a landslide against one of the worst governments in modern history. 2015 he scraped in courtesy of the LDs but again had a large missing gap on the right of his party which Mrs May subsequently picked up.
If he'd spent his time chasing votes from white van man in the Midlands and North rather than worrying about people like yourself he'd have had clear majorities in both Parlts and still be PM.
First she got rid of Osborne then she got rid of Boris, she's doing the nation a favour.
To centrist and moderate Remainers May's Cabinet looks far more like a Cameron cabinet today than it did on Sunday evening. Remainers are in the big 4 jobs PM, Home Secretary, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary as they have not been until 6th June.
May will be gambelling any Remainer Cameroons who voted Labour or LD or stayed at home at the last general election will return to the fold to offset any Tory voters who will depart for UKIP, Labour or simply stay at home after her Chequers deal.
Yesterday was the day May's 2 year act portraying being a hard Brexiteer finally died, she is back to being a Cameroon on all but name (minus Osborne who still hates her for personal reasons not surprisingly) and hence she was in such deep discussions with Dave last week
that's the tories own fault though. They keep selecting MPs who are out of sync with their own supporters.
The modern conservative party is run by internationalist corporatists with a London bias, they have lost contact with nation first, small business voters in the provinces.
Camron couls still quite happily have been PM if he had learned to balance the two, instead he chose to demonise chunks of his natural supporters and looked surprised when they stopped voting for him.
You are correct, there is now a vast difference between the Tory membership and leadership and the Tory voting base and the leadership particularly over Brexit Corbyn for all his faults does not have with his membership and the Labour voting base.
Which leaves the Tories particularly vulnerable to a UKIP revival, especially if Farage makes good on his promise to return as UKIP leader next March if it really is BINO
The Tories have known this for a long time. Hence they keep their members away from decision making on policy and have made sure they don't get a full choice of candidates for the leadership.
If it has been left to Tory members, we would be currently steered through the political rapids by the wise and deft hand of Mrs Leadsom.
Actually, now you mention it, what exactly would Andrea Leadsom have done that would have been worse than what Theresa May actually did? Surely the worst case scenario is we'd be where we are now, with no deal in sight and a cabinet shipping water?
Quite surprised that Liam Fox has not resigned as well. It has always been difficult to see what his job actually was but it is even less clear given the terms of the Chequers proposal. He has been remarkably quiet. Not a bad thing in itself of course.
It's very clear for anyone that actually understands what has been agreed. We can agree tariff cuts on goods and non-tariff barrier reductions on services. That is plenty to offer any potential trade partner.
The first is the A50 withdrawal deal by 29 March 2018. This includes legal detail on financial costs, EU citizens and NI backstop. Now that Mrs May has apparently conceded the EU version of the NI backstop I think the only barriers to this deal going through are a) a "meaningful" vote in the UK parliament and b) agreement on the outline of the future relationship. The latter will not be full of fine legal detail but will be short and consist of ambiguous fudge that the UK and EU can agree such as a "customs arrangement" and "common rules on standards".
With that in mind I think the EU could agree a version of the Chequers proposal that strips out the detail on eg maxfac and leaves a paragraph of fudge that May can agree to in order to complete the A50 agreement.
The second deal (the trade deal) will be negotiated during the transition period and I suspect will be full capitulation to Norway plus CU.
I also think there will be no VONC, no early GE, and that May will survive until at least end 2021.
Phew. Writing that out has clarified my mind but it could all change this afternoon!
The last 48 hours have made clear May cannot afford to concede on services or freedom of movement. It's something close to this deal or a 70% chance of JRM/Davis/Boris/Corbyn as PM.
My big fear is that as we hurtle towards hell in a handcart they might choose Boris in the vain hope that at least the end of the journey might be entertaining.
First she got rid of Osborne then she got rid of Boris, she's doing the nation a favour.
To centrist and moderate Remainers May's Cabinet looks far more like a Cameron cabinet today than it did on Sunday evening. Remainers are in the big 4 jobs PM, Home Secretary, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary as they have not been until 6th June.
May will be gambelling any Remainer Cameroons who voted Labour or LD or stayed at home at the last general election will return to the fold to offset any Tory voters who will depart for UKIP, Labour or simply stay at home after her Chequers deal.
Yesterday was the day May's 2 year act portraying being a hard Brexiteer finally died, she is back to being a Cameroon on all but name (minus Osborne who still hates her for personal reasons not surprisingly) and hence she was in such deep discussions with Dave last week
that's the tories own fault though. They keep selecting MPs who are out of sync with their own supporters.
The modern conservative party is run by internationalist corporatists with a London bias, they have lost contact with nation first, small business voters in the provinces.
Camron couls still quite happily have been PM if he had learned to balance the two, instead he chose to demonise chunks of his natural supporters and looked surprised when they stopped voting for him.
A curious account of David Cameron’s campaigning given that he fought two general elections and saw his party’s vote share and seat count increase in both.
Not at all
he should have won 2010 by a landslide against one of the worst governments in modern history. 2015 he scraped in courtesy of the LDs but again had a large missing gap on the right of his party which Mrs May subsequently picked up.
If he'd spent his time chasing votes from white van man in the Midlands and North rather than worrying about people like yourself he'd have had clear majorities in both Parlts and still be PM.
Three successive Conservative leaders before him chased voters on the right, cementing a Labour government that you consider one of the worst governments in modern history in power.
First she got rid of Osborne then she got rid of Boris, she's doing the nation a favour.
To centrist and moderate Remainers May's Cabinet looks far more like a Cameron cabinet today than it did on Sunday evening. Remainers are in the big 4 jobs PM, Home Secretary, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary as they have not been until 6th June.
May will be gambelling any Remainer Cameroons who voted Labour or LD or stayed at home at the last general election will return to the fold to offset any Tory voters who will depart for UKIP, Labour or simply stay at home after her Chequers deal.
Yesterday was the day May's 2 year act portraying being a hard Brexiteer finally died, she is back to being a Cameroon on all but name (minus Osborne who still hates her for personal reasons not surprisingly) and hence she was in such deep discussions with Dave last week
that's the tories own fault though. They keep selecting MPs who are out of sync with their own supporters.
The modern conservative party is run by internationalist corporatists with a London bias, they have lost contact with nation first, small business voters in the provinces.
Camron couls still quite happily have been PM if he had learned to balance the two, instead he chose to demonise chunks of his natural supporters and looked surprised when they stopped voting for him.
A curious account of David Cameron’s campaigning given that he fought two general elections and saw his party’s vote share and seat count increase in both.
Not at all
he should have won 2010 by a landslide against one of the worst governments in modern history. 2015 he scraped in courtesy of the LDs but again had a large missing gap on the right of his party which Mrs May subsequently picked up.
If he'd spent his time chasing votes from white van man in the Midlands and North rather than worrying about people like yourself he'd have had clear majorities in both Parlts and still be PM.
LOL. No.
That's just a classic piece of Monday-morning quarterbacking.
A newspaper has just described Boris as a man 'unencumbered by conscience principle or scruples'. What a perfect epitaph.
True. But like his hero Donald Trump, he thrives on publicity. Good publicity, bad publicity, whatever. He dominates today's headlines, and he has the chance to rebuild his standing with some flowery speeches in the coming months. The aim is not so much to make him popular as to make him the obvious choice who everyone's heard of.
If he did becomre Tory leader, though, I think Corbyn would see him off. At heart most people see Boris as essentially phoney, while Corbyn has both the virtues and the drawbacks of a long lifetime of consitency: floating voters see his views of being of doubtful relevance to today's world, but they don't think he's phoney, and in the end they'd prefer a period of authentic old-fashioned socialism to a national embarrassment.
Boris is no loss. But the top 4 ministers are now Remainers led by a nonentity who has shat in the soup.
Why bother voting to re-elect them ?
I think Mrs May is assuming that you’ll vote blue to stop Corbyn becoming PM.
.... as she did in 2017 when she was saved by the collapse of UKIP. Hang on though.....
"Mr Farage pointed out that the tenure of Gerard Batten, the current leader of Ukip, will come to an end in March 2019 - the same month when Article 50 ends.The MEP added: "Unless Brexit is back on track by then, I will have to seriously consider putting my name forward to return as Ukip leader. I can ensure any Conservatives listening to this, sitting in marginal seats, who are not prepared to honour the wishes of the electorate, I will make damn sure that you all lose your seats There are millions on Conservative voters who are very unhappy indeed.”
For each marginal, if more people flip Tory -> UKIP over perceived BINO than flip Labour -> Tory over fear of Corbyn, seats go Labour. The Con MPs will overestimate the fear of Labour and underestimate the anger of BINO - they need to look at their members and activists and realise that they cannot control this. People will have an emotional response to this situation that will wash them away if they get it wrong.
I've never voted UKIP and loathe much of what they're about. But I am now so peed off with May's turd of a proposal and her cack-handed way of shovelling it through the cabinet at Chequers (I've worked with a f-ing useless leader like that and it makes me want to vomit) that I would actually right now consider voting for them.
May has to go
You should follow your feelings. Do it!
So he should. The more chaotic the better should be the aim. It's the best hope of Brexit disapearing without trace. It must be obvious by now that any other outcome will lead to strife for decades to come. Cameron should be hung from Westminster Bridge
And now a third loony lefty joins in - if you gonna be devious you need more subtlety.
The tantrum-making Leavers remind me of the Sanders supporters voting Stein to screw Clinton. Now they have a crazy right wing Supreme Court for 30 years. If May gave way on services or FoM i would understand, but this deal is 95% hard Brexit. It's crazy.
The first is the A50 withdrawal deal by 29 March 2018. This includes legal detail on financial costs, EU citizens and NI backstop. Now that Mrs May has apparently conceded the EU version of the NI backstop I think the only barriers to this deal going through are a) a "meaningful" vote in the UK parliament and b) agreement on the outline of the future relationship. The latter will not be full of fine legal detail but will be short and consist of ambiguous fudge that the UK and EU can agree such as a "customs arrangement" and "common rules on standards".
With that in mind I think the EU could agree a version of the Chequers proposal that strips out the detail on eg maxfac and leaves a paragraph of fudge that May can agree to in order to complete the A50 agreement.
The second deal (the trade deal) will be negotiated during the transition period and I suspect will be full capitulation to Norway plus CU.
I also think there will be no VONC, no early GE, and that May will survive until at least end 2021.
Phew. Writing that out has clarified my mind but it could all change this afternoon!
I think this is spot on up to the point where May comes back from the October summit with a piece of paper hailing "Brexit in our time".
By that point it will be an unbeloved deal that doesn't command a majority in parliament, but that is nevertheless accepted as a triumph of diplomacy as the best possible form of Brexit to meet the mandate of the 2016 referendum.
May will simply pull off another coup de theatre and announce a second referendum to offer people the opportunity to flush away the "turd" way and remain. A landslide will be on the cards and the full extent of May's political genius will be plain for all to see.
A cunning plan, worthy of Baldrick himself.
Faced with a choice between Remain, or a deal so bad that no sane person could choose it, I expect most Leave supporters would stay at home, and exact revenge on the Conservatives in future elections.
The first is the A50 withdrawal deal by 29 March 2018. This includes legal detail on financial costs, EU citizens and NI backstop. Now that Mrs May has apparently conceded the EU version of the NI backstop I think the only barriers to this deal going through are a) a "meaningful" vote in the UK parliament and b) agreement on the outline of the future relationship. The latter will not be full of fine legal detail but will be short and consist of ambiguous fudge that the UK and EU can agree such as a "customs arrangement" and "common rules on standards".
With that in mind I think the EU could agree a version of the Chequers proposal that strips out the detail on eg maxfac and leaves a paragraph of fudge that May can agree to in order to complete the A50 agreement.
The second deal (the trade deal) will be negotiated during the transition period and I suspect will be full capitulation to Norway plus CU.
I also think there will be no VONC, no early GE, and that May will survive until at least end 2021.
Phew. Writing that out has clarified my mind but it could all change this afternoon!
I think this is spot on up to the point where May comes back from the October summit with a piece of paper hailing "Brexit in our time".
By that point it will be an unbeloved deal that doesn't command a majority in parliament, but that is nevertheless accepted as a triumph of diplomacy as the best possible form of Brexit to meet the mandate of the 2016 referendum.
May will simply pull off another coup de theatre and announce a second referendum to offer people the opportunity to flush away the "turd" way and remain. A landslide will be on the cards and the full extent of May's political genius will be plain for all to see.
A cunning plan, worthy of Baldrick himself.
Faced with a choice between Remain, or a deal so bad that no sane person could choose it, I expect most Leave supporters would stay at home, and exact revenge on the Conservatives in future elections.
Indeed, if we put remain back on a ballot paper our party is finished.
First she got rid of Osborne then she got rid of Boris, she's doing the nation a favour.
To centrist and moderate Remainers May's Cabinet looks far more like a Cameron cabinet today than it did on Sunday evening. Remainers are in the big 4 jobs PM, Home Secretary, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary as they have not been until 6th June.
May will be gambelling any Remainer Cameroons who voted Labour or LD or stayed at home at the last general election will return to the fold to offset any Tory voters who will depart for UKIP, Labour or simply stay at home after her Chequers deal.
Yesterday was the day May's 2 year act portraying being a hard Brexiteer finally died, she is back to being a Cameroon on all but name (minus Osborne who still hates her for personal reasons not surprisingly) and hence she was in such deep discussions with Dave last week
that's the tories own fault though. They keep selecting MPs who are out of sync with their own supporters.
The modern conservative party is run by internationalist corporatists with a London bias, they have lost contact with nation first, small business voters in the provinces.
Camron couls still quite happily have been PM if he had learned to balance the two, instead he chose to demonise chunks of his natural supporters and looked surprised when they stopped voting for him.
A curious account of David Cameron’s campaigning given that he fought two general elections and saw his party’s vote share and seat count increase in both.
Not at all
he should have won 2010 by a landslide against one of the worst governments in modern history. 2015 he scraped in courtesy of the LDs but again had a large missing gap on the right of his party which Mrs May subsequently picked up.
If he'd spent his time chasing votes from white van man in the Midlands and North rather than worrying about people like yourself he'd have had clear majorities in both Parlts and still be PM.
Three successive Conservative leaders before him chased voters on the right, cementing a Labour government that you consider one of the worst governments in modern history in power.
of course they did and they hadn't a hope in hell when all was going tickety boo during the great debt binge.
then came 2008, the GFC and the rules changed we've been living with the consequences ever since, hence Brexit.
First she got rid of Osborne then she got rid of Boris, she's doing the nation a favour.
To centrist and moderate Remainers May's Cabinet looks far more like a Cameron cabinet today than it did on Sunday evening. Remainers are in the big 4 jobs PM, Home Secretary, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary as they have not been until 6th June.
May will be gambelling any Remainer Cameroons who voted Labour or LD or stayed at home at the last general election will return to the fold to offset any Tory voters who will depart for UKIP, Labour or simply stay at home after her Chequers deal.
Yesterday was the day May's 2 year act portraying being a hard Brexiteer finally died, she is back to being a Cameroon on all but name (minus Osborne who still hates her for personal reasons not surprisingly) and hence she was in such deep discussions with Dave last week
that's the tories own fault though. They keep selecting MPs who are out of sync with their own supporters.
The modern conservative party is run by internationalist corporatists with a London bias, they have lost contact with nation first, small business voters in the provinces.
Camron couls still quite happily have been PM if he had learned to balance the two, instead he chose to demonise chunks of his natural supporters and looked surprised when they stopped voting for him.
You are correct, there is now a vast difference between the Tory membership and leadership and the Tory voting base and the leadership particularly over Brexit Corbyn for all his faults does not have with his membership and the Labour voting base.
Which leaves the Tories particularly vulnerable to a UKIP revival, especially if Farage makes good on his promise to return as UKIP leader next March if it really is BINO
The Tories have known this for a long time. Hence they keep their members away from decision making on policy and have made sure they don't get a full choice of candidates for the leadership.
If it has been left to Tory members, we would be currently steered through the political rapids by the wise and deft hand of Mrs Leadsom.
I think May would have beaten Leadsom narrowly and of course it was Leadsom who pulled out.
However if the members do not get to choose the next leader in the runoff there will be a members revolt possibly with attempted deselections of Remainer MPs
Quite surprised that Liam Fox has not resigned as well. It has always been difficult to see what his job actually was but it is even less clear given the terms of the Chequers proposal. He has been remarkably quiet. Not a bad thing in itself of course.
He was a picture yesterday during Tezza's speech. Daggers drawn doesn't cover it.
btw are you ok? Your account last night was hacked by a member of the Turnip Taleban. All no deal is better than this monstrosity type of comment.
First she got rid of Osborne then she got rid of Boris, she's doing the nation a favour.
To centrist and moderate Remainers May's Cabinet looks far more like a Cameron cabinet today than it did on Sunday evening. Remainers are in the big 4 jobs PM, Home Secretary, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary as they have not been until 6th June.
May will be gambelling any Remainer Cameroons who voted Labour or LD or stayed at home at the last general election will return to the fold to offset any Tory voters who will depart for UKIP, Labour or simply stay at home after her Chequers deal.
Yesterday was the day May's 2 year act portraying being a hard Brexiteer finally died, she is back to being a Cameroon on all but name (minus Osborne who still hates her for personal reasons not surprisingly) and hence she was in such deep discussions with Dave last week
that's the tories own fault though. They keep selecting MPs who are out of sync with their own supporters.
The modern conservative party is run by internationalist corporatists with a London bias, they have lost contact with nation first, small business voters in the provinces.
Camron couls still quite happily have been PM if he had learned to balance the two, instead he chose to demonise chunks of his natural supporters and looked surprised when they stopped voting for him.
A curious account of David Cameron’s campaigning given that he fought two general elections and saw his party’s vote share and seat count increase in both.
Not at all
he should have won 2010 by a landslide against one of the worst governments in modern history. 2015 he scraped in courtesy of the LDs but again had a large missing gap on the right of his party which Mrs May subsequently picked up.
If he'd spent his time chasing votes from white van man in the Midlands and North rather than worrying about people like yourself he'd have had clear majorities in both Parlts and still be PM.
LOL. No.
That's just a classic piece of Monday-morning quarterbacking.
Quite surprised that Liam Fox has not resigned as well. It has always been difficult to see what his job actually was but it is even less clear given the terms of the Chequers proposal. He has been remarkably quiet. Not a bad thing in itself of course.
It's very clear for anyone that actually understands what has been agreed. We can agree tariff cuts on goods and non-tariff barrier reductions on services. That is plenty to offer any potential trade partner.
How can we agree to reduce tariffs when we have undertaken to collect EU tariffs for them?
And this is not yet agreed, it is our starting proposal. It seems very likely that it will evolve into a full customs union, albeit it may be given a different name to save face.
The first is the A50 withdrawal deal by 29 March 2018. This includes legal detail on financial costs, EU citizens and NI backstop. Now that Mrs May has apparently conceded the EU version of the NI backstop I think the only barriers to this deal going through are a) a "meaningful" vote in the UK parliament and b) agreement on the outline of the future relationship. The latter will not be full of fine legal detail but will be short and consist of ambiguous fudge that the UK and EU can agree such as a "customs arrangement" and "common rules on standards".
With that in mind I think the EU could agree a version of the Chequers proposal that strips out the detail on eg maxfac and leaves a paragraph of fudge that May can agree to in order to complete the A50 agreement.
The second deal (the trade deal) will be negotiated during the transition period and I suspect will be full capitulation to Norway plus CU.
I also think there will be no VONC, no early GE, and that May will survive until at least end 2021.
Phew. Writing that out has clarified my mind but it could all change this afternoon!
I think this is spot on up to the point where May comes back from the October summit with a piece of paper hailing "Brexit in our time".
By that point it will be an unbeloved deal that doesn't command a majority in parliament, but that is nevertheless accepted as a triumph of diplomacy as the best possible form of Brexit to meet the mandate of the 2016 referendum.
May will simply pull off another coup de theatre and announce a second referendum to offer people the opportunity to flush away the "turd" way and remain. A landslide will be on the cards and the full extent of May's political genius will be plain for all to see.
A cunning plan, worthy of Baldrick himself.
Faced with a choice between Remain, or a deal so bad that no sane person could choose it, I expect most Leave supporters would stay at home, and exact revenge on the Conservatives in future elections.
This is where I should highlight another part of the cunning plan.
May has now irrevocably tied the key intellectual leader of the 2016 campaign behind her deal. In the second referendum campaign, Gove will be the face of the "turd" way and will have to defend it to the death, explaining to all comers why it does not betray the 2016 result and why it is the best possible version of Brexit.
Mr. Elliot, the genuineness or not of posters is, unfortunately, a perennial problem. Over time, mindless parroting of party lines or only ever supporting X can be indicative of bias (which obviously is fair enough if someone is a party member and open about that, or suchlike). We've had astroturfers in the past, and probably the present too.
Mr. Doethur, Verstappen does need a bit more prudence and bit less recklessness. In that regard, Ricciardo's the perfect mix.
There is real danger to look at their members and activists and realise that they cannot control this. People will have an emotional response to this situation that will wash them away if they get it wrong.
I've never voted UKIP and loathe much of what they're about. But I am now so peed off with May's turd of a proposal and her cack-handed way of shovelling it through the cabinet at Chequers (I've worked with a f-ing useless leader like that and it makes me want to vomit) that I would actually right now consider voting for them.
May has to go
You should follow your feelings. Do it!
So he should. The more chaotic the better should be the aim. It's the best hope of Brexit disapearing without trace. It must be obvious by now that any other outcome will lead to strife for decades to come. Cameron should be hung from Westminster Bridge
New career Roger ?
If youre heading a lynch mob perhaps we could all send you some more names
Just a figure of speech. But there is something odious about lighting the blue touch paper and then sidling off leaving utter devastaion behind him. I think history will be much kinder to Blair and even Brown than it will be to Cameron.
Despite his lack of political skills and hubris on the economy, Brown will get credit for getting the world to act quickly to prevent the 2008/9 crisis turning into a full blown depression, even if it has involved entering uncharted territory from which after ten years we are still seeking an escape.
why would he get credit for having to repair his own cock up ?
Because, despite increasingly silly attempts by opponents to paint Labour as the cause of the whole global financial crisis, in truth there were a range of causes and Brown responded well to the crisis.
A newspaper has just described Boris as a man 'unencumbered by conscience principle or scruples'. What a perfect epitaph.
True. But like his hero Donald Trump, he thrives on publicity. Good publicity, bad publicity, whatever. He dominates today's headlines, and he has the chance to rebuild his standing with some flowery speeches in the coming months. The aim is not so much to make him popular as to make him the obvious choice who everyone's heard of.
If he did becomre Tory leader, though, I think Corbyn would see him off. At heart most people see Boris as essentially phoney, while Corbyn has both the virtues and the drawbacks of a long lifetime of consitency: floating voters see his views of being of doubtful relevance to today's world, but they don't think he's phoney, and in the end they'd prefer a period of authentic old-fashioned socialism to a national embarrassment.
I think you're right. It would take a lot to persuade me to vote Corbyn-I can't forgive him for his 'inactivity' during the referendum-but Boris as his opponent would definitely do it.
First she got rid of Osborne then she got rid of Boris, she's doing the nation a favour.
To centrist and moderate Remainers May's Cabinet looks far more like a Cameron cabinet today than it did on Sunday evening. Remainers are in the big 4 jobs PM, Home Secretary, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary as they have not been until 6th June.
May will be gambelling any Remainer Cameroons who voted Labour or LD or stayed at home at the last general election will return to the fold to offset any Tory voters who will depart for UKIP, Labour or simply stay at home after her Chequers deal.
Yesterday was the day May's 2 year act portraying being a hard Brexiteer finally died, she is back to being a Cameroon on all but name (minus Osborne who still hates her for personal reasons not surprisingly) and hence she was in such deep discussions with Dave last week
that's the tories own fault though. They keep selecting MPs who are out of sync with their own supporters.
The modern conservative party is run by internationalist corporatists with a London bias, they have lost contact with nation first, small business voters in the provinces.
Camron couls still quite happily have been PM if he had learned to balance the two, instead he chose to demonise chunks of his natural supporters and looked surprised when they stopped voting for him.
A curious account of David Cameron’s campaigning given that he fought two general elections and saw his party’s vote share and seat count increase in both.
Not at all
he should have won 2010 by a landslide against one of the worst governments in modern history. 2015 he scraped in courtesy of the LDs but again had a large missing gap on the right of his party which Mrs May subsequently picked up.
If he'd spent his time chasing votes from white van man in the Midlands and North rather than worrying about people like yourself he'd have had clear majorities in both Parlts and still be PM.
LOL. No.
That's just a classic piece of Monday-morning quarterbacking.
It's Tuesday
I know. 'Monday morning quarterbacking' is a well-known phrase for people who criticise something after the event in such a way that it sounds like it would all have been different (and usually successful) if they'd been in charge. Usually based on wishes over facts.
The first is the A50 withdrawal deal by 29 March 2018. This includes legal detail on financial costs, EU citizens and NI backstop. Now that Mrs May has apparently conceded the EU version of the NI backstop I think the only barriers to this deal going through are a) a "meaningful" vote in the UK parliament and b) agreement on the outline of the future relationship. The latter will not be full of fine legal detail but will be short and consist of ambiguous fudge that the UK and EU can agree such as a "customs arrangement" and "common rules on standards".
With that in mind I think the EU could agree a version of the Chequers proposal that strips out the detail on eg maxfac and leaves a paragraph of fudge that May can agree to in order to complete the A50 agreement.
The second deal (the trade deal) will be negotiated during the transition period and I suspect will be full capitulation to Norway plus CU.
I also think there will be no VONC, no early GE, and that May will survive until at least end 2021.
Phew. Writing that out has clarified my mind but it could all change this afternoon!
The last 48 hours have made clear May cannot afford to concede on services or freedom of movement. It's something close to this deal or a 70% chance of JRM/Davis/Boris/Corbyn as PM.
She won't need to concede until late in the transition period if the EU agree to a fudge statement on the future trading relationship for the A50 agreement.
I agree there is a 70% chance of JRM/Davis/Boris/Corbyn as next PM made up as 0%/0%/10%/60%.
A newspaper has just described Boris as a man 'unencumbered by conscience principle or scruples'. What a perfect epitaph.
True. But like his hero Donald Trump, he thrives on publicity. Good publicity, bad publicity, whatever. He dominates today's headlines, and he has the chance to rebuild his standing with some flowery speeches in the coming months. The aim is not so much to make him popular as to make him the obvious choice who everyone's heard of.
If he did becomre Tory leader, though, I think Corbyn would see him off. At heart most people see Boris as essentially phoney, while Corbyn has both the virtues and the drawbacks of a long lifetime of consitency: floating voters see his views of being of doubtful relevance to today's world, but they don't think he's phoney, and in the end they'd prefer a period of authentic old-fashioned socialism to a national embarrassment.
Voters traditionally like people they could sit next to on a plane. Corbyn looks a bit too political for general chit chat.
There is real danger to look at their members and activists and realise that they cannot control this. People will have an emotional response to this situation that will wash them away if they get it wrong.
I've never voted UKIP and loathe much of what they're about. But I am now so peed off with May's turd of a proposal and her cack-handed way of shovelling it through the cabinet at Chequers (I've worked with a f-ing useless leader like that and it makes me want to vomit) that I would actually right now consider voting for them.
May has to go
You should follow your feelings. Do it!
So he should. The more chaotic the better should be th Westminster Bridge
New career Roger ?
If youre heading a lynch mob perhaps we could all send you some more names
Just a figure of speech. But there is so Cameron.
Despite his lac escape.
why would he get credit for having to repair his own cock up ?
Because, despite increasingly silly attempts by opponents to paint Labour as the cause of the whole global financial crisis, in truth there were a range of causes and Brown responded well to the crisis.
I wonder how May would have got on.
Labour were not the cause of the global financial crisis, they were the cause of the UK being exposed to it worse than most countries.
First she got rid of Osborne then she got rid of Boris, she's doing the nation a favour.
To centrist and moderate Remainers May's Cabinet looks far more like a Cameron cabinet today than it did on Sunday evening. Remainers are in the big 4 jobs PM, Home Secretary, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary as they have not been until 6th June.
May will be gambelling any Remainer Cameroons who voted Labour or LD or stayed at home at the last general election will return to the fold to offset any Tory voters who will depart for UKIP, Labour or simply stay at home after her Chequers deal.
Yesterday was the day May's 2 year act portraying being a hard Brexiteer finally died, she is back to being a Cameroon on all but name (minus Osborne who still hates her for personal reasons not surprisingly) and hence she was in such deep discussions with Dave last week
that's the tories own fault though. They keep selecting MPs who are out of sync with their own supporters.
The modern conservative party is run by internationalist corporatists with a London bias, they have lost contact with nation first, small business voters in the provinces.
Camron couls still quite happily have been PM if he had learned to balance the two, instead he chose to demonise chunks of his natural supporters and looked surprised when they stopped voting for him.
A curious account of David Cameron’s campaigning given that he fought two general elections and saw his party’s vote share and seat count increase in both.
Not at all
he should have won 2010 by a landslide against one of the worst governments in modern history. 2015 he scraped in courtesy of the LDs but again had a large missing gap on the right of his party which Mrs May subsequently picked up.
If he'd spent his time chasing votes from white van man in the Midlands and North rather than worrying about people like yourself he'd have had clear majorities in both Parlts and still be PM.
LOL. No.
That's just a classic piece of Monday-morning quarterbacking.
It's Tuesday
I know. 'Monday morning quarterbacking' is a well-known phrase for people who criticise something after the event in such a way that it sounds like it would all have been different (and usually successful) if they'd been in charge. Usually based on wishes over facts.
The first is the A50 withdrawal deal by 29 March 2018. This includes legal detail on financial costs, EU citizens and NI backstop. Now that Mrs May has apparently conceded the EU version of the NI backstop I think the only barriers to this deal going through are a) a "meaningful" vote in the UK parliament and b) agreement on the outline of the future relationship. The latter will not be full of fine legal detail but will be short and consist of ambiguous fudge that the UK and EU can agree such as a "customs arrangement" and "common rules on standards".
With that in mind I think the EU could agree a version of the Chequers proposal that strips out the detail on eg maxfac and leaves a paragraph of fudge that May can agree to in order to complete the A50 agreement.
The second deal (the trade deal) will be negotiated during the transition period and I suspect will be full capitulation to Norway plus CU.
I also think there will be no VONC, no early GE, and that May will survive until at least end 2021.
Phew. Writing that out has clarified my mind but it could all change this afternoon!
The last 48 hours have made clear May cannot afford to concede on services or freedom of movement. It's something close to this deal or a 70% chance of JRM/Davis/Boris/Corbyn as PM.
She won't need to concede until late in the transition period if the EU agree to a fudge statement on the future trading relationship for the A50 agreement.
I agree there is a 70% chance of JRM/Davis/Boris/Corbyn as next PM made up as 0%/0%/10%/60%.
15%/10%/15%/30%. From the EU perspective, Corbyn is as problematic as the rest as he won't agree state aid limits. Plus he will break NATO.
Labour (and specifically Brown) is not being painted as the cause of the whole global crisis. He, and they, are being painted as the people who placed the country on such a precarious footing that when the crisis came, it hurt us much more than it should have.
*If* he avoided a meltdown and depression, then it was only by patching holes his own policies helped create.
The sad thing is that Brown was the cause of austerity: without him, austerity would not have been needed, or would not have been as deep.
There is real danger to look at their members and activists and realise that they cannot control this. People will have an emotional response to this situation that will wash them away if they get it wrong.
I've never voted UKIP and loathe much of what they're about. But I am now so peed off with May's turd of a proposal and her cack-handed way of shovelling it through the cabinet at Chequers (I've worked with a f-ing useless leader like that and it makes me want to vomit) that I would actually right now consider voting for them.
May has to go
You should follow your feelings. Do it!
So he should. The more chaotic the better should be th Westminster Bridge
New career Roger ?
If youre heading a lynch mob perhaps we could all send you some more names
Just a figure of speech. But there is so Cameron.
Despite his lac escape.
why would he get credit for having to repair his own cock up ?
Because, despite increasingly silly attempts by opponents to paint Labour as the cause of the whole global financial crisis, in truth there were a range of causes and Brown responded well to the crisis.
I wonder how May would have got on.
Labour were not the cause of the global financial crisis, they were the cause of the UK being exposed to it worse than most countries.
The importance of the City to the UK economy played a part in that. Unless you think Labour should have rebalanced the economy away from that, I doubt any govt would have stood up to that hurricane. The oft quoted regulations would have done less than people say. Bankers would have found ways round them to make gazillions.
Comments
As an aside I do think it's the Brexit Ultras on PB who have understood what Chequers proposes not our tactical Brexit pragmatists. If you read Chequers properly as to what it will mean in the real legal world as opposed to the spin then add on the enormous extra concessions the EU will require to accept the Cherry picking then it is key regards ' Vassal State '. Anyone who finds the red lines it breaches should be trying to kill it now. Because once the White Paper is published it becomes settled " in the price " and you can't stop it without bringing the PM down. As they've delayed publication for a few days you've got a week. I'm not convinced today helps that much as it's become a process story about the way two shambolic figures shambolically resigned. But until White Paper publication it's in play.
Suffering can be redemptive and the horror of 5 years of Corbynism may be the cleansing act the nation needs. Certainly if we end up with the hardest of Brexits the pain and misery should be shared widely and Corbyn woukd certainly achieve that if nothing else. We're in uncharted political waters and as yesterday brought into focus uncharted waters may very well mean uncharted moral choices.
1. The cabinet is not, contrary to some pb-er, stronger now. A group of like minded yes people doesn't make it stronger. She has lost a vital part of her party. And, thankfully for Brexiteers, she can't afford to do that. They may now be very grateful for her almighty cock up last year.
2. Theresa May isn't going to get her polished turd through parliament. Losing the will of the Brexiteers means her legislation is hereafter doomed
3. The Tories will plunge in the polls: watch it happen over the next 4 to 6 weeks (fallout takes time). The consequence of that may well be May's downfall
4. We all say Theresa May is a survivor. In reality, no-one survives forever in politics. Her downfall will come. It's just a question of when.
5. If this derails England this week no-one will ever forgive any of the politicians involved. Period. As per today's Sun.
May has to go
Hmmm interesting ... Paris 1990 anyone?
Autos
Finance
(and the half) northern Ireland
Con 40.7%, Lab 39.1%, LD 8.7%
Tories lose 9 seats leaving them 17 short
Richmond Park and St Ives to LDs
Stirling to SNP
Chipping Barnet, Pudsey, Southampton Itchen, Hastings and Rye, Preseli, Thurrock to Lab.
CETA also exposes Irish borders where you have to choose between a hard border across fields in Ireland or on the Irish Sea. It's a real problem despite Leavers downplaying it.
Our options broadly are Fuck Business (Canada); Vassal State ( Norway) including customs union, which deals with the Irish border problem; acting against democracy (EU membership) which on any rational measure is the best option except it's the only option that has been formally and clearly ruled out.
All our options are really bad but we have to choose one of them. We're not facing up to reality yet.I'm not including No Deal or WTO because that's the absence of a solution.
No motion of confidence? Mildly surprised.
His age would also make it more difficult for him to entrench himself, and the fact that all his vaguely intelligent Shadow Cabinet ministers are also quite old makes it less likely a successor could last long.
It could not possibly be a purple one could it?
First she got rid of Osborne then she got rid of Boris, she's doing the nation a favour.
May will be gambelling any Remainer Cameroons who voted Labour or LD or stayed at home at the last general election will return to the fold to offset any Tory voters who will depart for UKIP, Labour or simply stay at home after her Chequers deal.
Yesterday was the day May's 2 year act portraying being a hard Brexiteer finally died, she is back to being a Cameroon in all but name (minus Osborne who still hates her for personal reasons not surprisingly) and hence she was in such deep discussions with Dave last week
The modern conservative party is run by internationalist corporatists with a London bias, they have lost contact with nation first, small business voters in the provinces.
Camron couls still quite happily have been PM if he had learned to balance the two, instead he chose to demonise chunks of his natural supporters and looked surprised when they stopped voting for him.
There are two separate deals to be done.
The first is the A50 withdrawal deal by 29 March 2018. This includes legal detail on financial costs, EU citizens and NI backstop. Now that Mrs May has apparently conceded the EU version of the NI backstop I think the only barriers to this deal going through are a) a "meaningful" vote in the UK parliament and b) agreement on the outline of the future relationship. The latter will not be full of fine legal detail but will be short and consist of ambiguous fudge that the UK and EU can agree such as a "customs arrangement" and "common rules on standards".
With that in mind I think the EU could agree a version of the Chequers proposal that strips out the detail on eg maxfac and leaves a paragraph of fudge that May can agree to in order to complete the A50 agreement.
The second deal (the trade deal) will be negotiated during the transition period and I suspect will be full capitulation to Norway plus CU.
I also think there will be no VONC, no early GE, and that May will survive until at least end 2021.
Phew. Writing that out has clarified my mind but it could all change this afternoon!
I wouldn't want her running a recruitment agency.
If youre heading a lynch mob perhaps we could all send you some more names
It is theoretically possible the Intelligence services might do surveillance and reporting for Corbyn as the Luxembourgish security did under Juncker (he didn't know about that, honestly he didn't) but that's a far cry from what would be needed.
Corbyn would be Tsipras rather than Putin or Chavez. Not that any of those scenarios is encouraging economically.
Though I can't see the army agreeing
Corbyn wouldn't get a full-blown socialist dictatorship but he could still cause massive damage.
The odds and standings (sorry I can't do tables!):
1/6 Kane England 6 Goals 0 Assist
9/1 Lukaku Belgium 4 Goals 1 Assist
25 Griezmann France 3 Goals 1 Assist
33 Mbappe France 3 Goals 0 Assist
Hazard Belgium 2 Goals 2 Assists
Modric Croatia 2 Goals 1 Assist
Stones England 2 Goals 0 Assist
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup/top-scorers
It looks to me as if the match odds and outright odds are roughly correct. The days when England would invariably be too short are over now that football betting is global but this might be one of the two markets where that old adage still applies.
The other, and perhaps even more so, is the Golden Ball for best player of the tournament. Harry Kane is 7/2 which looks ludicrously short given he's not had an outstanding game or moment. Mbappe, Hazard and Modric all look far more likely but it normally goes to a finalist so things may look clearer in two days' time. Mbappe is the best player left in, Hazard looked
masterful against Brazil, Luka Modric has almost single-handedly dragged Croatia's Sunday League team into the semi-finals. Against that, Harry Kane has taken some penalties.
Which leaves the Tories particularly vulnerable to a UKIP revival, especially if Farage makes good on his promise to return as UKIP leader next March if it really is BINO
How Mexico turns out could also be a test case as much as Greece or Venezuala
If it has been left to Tory members, we would be currently steered through the political rapids by the wise and deft hand of Mrs Leadsom.
By that point it will be an unbeloved deal that doesn't command a majority in parliament, but that is nevertheless accepted as a triumph of diplomacy as the best possible form of Brexit to meet the mandate of the 2016 referendum.
May will simply pull off another coup de theatre and announce a second referendum to offer people the opportunity to flush away the "turd" way and remain. A landslide will be on the cards and the full extent of May's political genius will be plain for all to see.
Those are Leclerc's odds. Got to say, I wouldn't touch that as I think his odds will be longer come the Drivers' market (and backable each way). The 26 on him to get 3 or more titles may be worth considering.
Long term, rivals for Leclerc are likely to be Verstappen, Ricciardo and AN Other. If the two named fellows are at the same team and Leclerc becomes Ferrari's number one chap, that'll help him out rather a lot. That said, rule changes are coming fairly soon so his titles would need to either span the difference or all occur under the new rulebook.
he should have won 2010 by a landslide against one of the worst governments in modern history. 2015 he scraped in courtesy of the LDs but again had a large missing gap on the right of his party which Mrs May subsequently picked up.
If he'd spent his time chasing votes from white van man in the Midlands and North rather than worrying about people like yourself he'd have had clear majorities in both Parlts and still be PM.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama_religion_conspiracy_theories
That's just a classic piece of Monday-morning quarterbacking.
If he did becomre Tory leader, though, I think Corbyn would see him off. At heart most people see Boris as essentially phoney, while Corbyn has both the virtues and the drawbacks of a long lifetime of consitency: floating voters see his views of being of doubtful relevance to today's world, but they don't think he's phoney, and in the end they'd prefer a period of authentic old-fashioned socialism to a national embarrassment.
Faced with a choice between Remain, or a deal so bad that no sane person could choose it, I expect most Leave supporters would stay at home, and exact revenge on the Conservatives in future elections.
then came 2008, the GFC and the rules changed we've been living with the consequences ever since, hence Brexit.
However if the members do not get to choose the next leader in the runoff there will be a members revolt possibly with attempted deselections of Remainer MPs
btw are you ok? Your account last night was hacked by a member of the Turnip Taleban. All no deal is better than this monstrosity type of comment.
And this is not yet agreed, it is our starting proposal. It seems very likely that it will evolve into a full customs union, albeit it may be given a different name to save face.
May has now irrevocably tied the key intellectual leader of the 2016 campaign behind her deal. In the second referendum campaign, Gove will be the face of the "turd" way and will have to defend it to the death, explaining to all comers why it does not betray the 2016 result and why it is the best possible version of Brexit.
She's a genius I tell you.
Mr. Doethur, Verstappen does need a bit more prudence and bit less recklessness. In that regard, Ricciardo's the perfect mix.
I wonder how May would have got on.
Hence it can take place on any day of the week.
I agree there is a 70% chance of JRM/Davis/Boris/Corbyn as next PM made up as 0%/0%/10%/60%.