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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters still make a 2018 exit for TMay the favourite but the

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited July 10 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters still make a 2018 exit for TMay the favourite but the price edges down a notch

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Comments

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,300
    Favourite but odds against.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,182
    FPT

    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,512
    Can we have a graph showing the number of times the 1922 was on the brink of getting 48 letters?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,448
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,182
    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,090
    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Don't think it'll happen. Next year is likelier.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,182
    edited July 10
    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,671
    FPT
    Morning Malc - thanks for your comments and I hope you are well and enjoying the weather. Was in Gods own Country two weeks ago and return in 10 days for another week.
    Hi G, been amazing , at least 6 weeks since we have had rain. Hope it holds for your return. Hope you and family are all well.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 70,038
    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Dave won a majority when UKIP polled nearly 13%.

    Mrs May didn't win a majority when UKIP polled less than 2%.

    A good Tory leader knows how to win a majority with UKIP polling highly.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Right now it would be over 200 and that is why the talk of a VNOC has become muted.

    Also listening to the media this morning she seems to be gaining support across parties and of course that is important for voting in the HOC. I am surprised at the noticeable friendly attitude from opposition politicians
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,703
    I promise I didn't know what thread Mike was putting up!

    For what it's worth, I expect her to see the year out. The absence of a viable alternative course of action makes any challenge to her futile. That doesn't mean that she won't be ousted in a nihilist spasm but it markedly reduces the chances of that happening.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,990
    So long as there’s no more resignations and the EU don’t push against her white paper next week, she’s probably safe until March next year.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,512
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    I really doubt Theresa May can win a vote of no confidence, and so does she which is why she has not called for one, John Major style. It would not be May vs Boris or May vs Rees-Mogg but of May versus the aggregate of everyone else and their supporters. The government would not fall, it would be wholly personal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,300
    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Corbyn wasn't taken seriously in 2017 not just by the Tories but by the media too. He was given a free pass.

    That won't happen next time.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    Your first paragraph is far from certain - more it reflects your hope as you feel betrayed over Brexit

    TM will not lead into the next GE
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,512
    FPT for TSE. France will probably beat Belgium. See my post early in that thread for Golden Boot and Golden Ball betting.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 70,038

    FPT for TSE. France will probably beat Belgium. See my post early in that thread for Golden Boot and Golden Ball betting.

    Full confession time, I have a huge red if England win the world cup, but if the other three win it, they'll I'll be green.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    edited July 10
    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    More hope than expectation
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283

    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Dave won a majority when UKIP polled nearly 13%.

    Mrs May didn't win a majority when UKIP polled less than 2%.

    A good Tory leader knows how to win a majority with UKIP polling highly.
    Cameron promised an EU referendum on 2015 which reduced the number of Tories who might have defected to UKIP, if the result of that referendum which was Leave turns into BINO many Tories may well shift to UKIP or stay home at the next general election.

    May and Remainer BINO Tories would then need to hope they win back enough Remain 2015 Cameron voting Tories who defected to the LDs or Labour or stayed at home in 2017 to counteract that
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,084
    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    theres a danger that the tories will re run the referendum campaign


    project fear 3 - the hand of Corbyn - puts them once again in the position where they are appealing to wallets in a electorate which is focused on values.


    since the tory remainers have learnt nothing from their referendum defeat it could be interesting times
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Mr. JohnL, it was said here the other day May can't take the Major route because if she resigns there's a leadership contest in which she, as resigning leader, cannot participate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283
    edited July 10
    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    The Tories still tied with Labour today in a post Chequers Yougov poll but movement from the Tories and to a lesser extent Labour to UKIP it seems
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,738
    edited July 10
    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Farage won't be coming back. UKIP had an easy time of it previously, in that they could promise completely different things to different audiences. This time, to contrast himself with Theresa, Farage would specifically have to advocate cliff-drop Brexit. He'd be shot down in flames.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,084

    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Dave won a majority when UKIP polled nearly 13%.

    Mrs May didn't win a majority when UKIP polled less than 2%.

    A good Tory leader knows how to win a majority with UKIP polling highly.
    Dave no longer leads the Tories

    he screwed up
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,691
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    You say that, and I want to agree with you, and yet, and yet... it has been a year since she lost the Conservative majority in the 2017 General Election, and I'm still astounded that she survived that. And then there is the limpet-like example shown by Corbyn.

    So many of the normal rules no longer seem to apply.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    Morning Malc - thanks for your comments and I hope you are well and enjoying the weather. Was in Gods own Country two weeks ago and return in 10 days for another week.
    Hi G, been amazing , at least 6 weeks since we have had rain. Hope it holds for your return. Hope you and family are all well.

    Yes we are apart from my strained (and painful) hamstrings from overexertion on our cruise and 1200 miles static behind the wheel driving upto Lossiemouth and back
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283

    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Farage won't be coming back. UKIP had an easy time of it previously, in that they could promise completely different things to different audiences. This time, to contrast himself with Theresa, Farage would specifically have to advocate cliff-drop Brexit. He'd be shot down in flames.
    Farage has said he will return as UKIP leader next March when Batten's term ends if it is BINO, most likely on a hard Brexit platform
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 70,038
    So



    Makes a counterweight to Ann Marie Waters Islamophobia towards Humza Yousaf I suppose.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    I really doubt Theresa May can win a vote of no confidence, and so does she which is why she has not called for one, John Major style. It would not be May vs Boris or May vs Rees-Mogg but of May versus the aggregate of everyone else and their supporters. The government would not fall, it would be wholly personal.
    You do not seem to know how it works. 48 letters to Graham Brady triggers a VONC and if that happened she would receive a 200 odd majority, especially after the huge reception she received at the 1922 Committee last night. Indeed that is why the noise for a VNOC is disappearing
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,738
    edited July 10
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Farage won't be coming back. UKIP had an easy time of it previously, in that they could promise completely different things to different audiences. This time, to contrast himself with Theresa, Farage would specifically have to advocate cliff-drop Brexit. He'd be shot down in flames.
    Farage has said he will return as UKIP leader next March when Batten's term ends if it is BINO, most likely on a hard Brexit platform
    In that case he'll be jeered out of town. UKIP only flourished when it could (or was allowed to) promise all things to all men.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,771



    Farage won't be coming back. UKIP had an easy time of it previously, in that they could promise completely different things to different audiences. This time, to contrast himself with Theresa, Farage would specifically have to advocate cliff-drop Brexit. He'd be shot down in flames.

    Why so sure Farage won't return?
    Cliff-drop Brexit has a substantial constituency I'd say, perhaps 10-15%.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Mr. Dawning, suspect you may be misreading the situation.

    If we get any kind of deal, there will be a narrative (NB 'a' narrative, there will be competing ones) that every time something could be better, the reason it isn't is that we're still shackled to the EU.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 891

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    I really doubt Theresa May can win a vote of no confidence, and so does she which is why she has not called for one, John Major style. It would not be May vs Boris or May vs Rees-Mogg but of May versus the aggregate of everyone else and their supporters. The government would not fall, it would be wholly personal.
    You do not seem to know how it works. 48 letters to Graham Brady triggers a VONC and if that happened she would receive a 200 odd majority, especially after the huge reception she received at the 1922 Committee last night. Indeed that is why the noise for a VNOC is disappearing
    disagree, If she waters down further Chequers deal (which is very likely) and then a VONC is called MPs will be looking ahead to 2022 and their future careers thinking do I want this loser PM to fight the next GE, and in the secrecy of the ballot box will vote against TM
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,990
    rkrkrk said:



    Farage won't be coming back. UKIP had an easy time of it previously, in that they could promise completely different things to different audiences. This time, to contrast himself with Theresa, Farage would specifically have to advocate cliff-drop Brexit. He'd be shot down in flames.

    Why so sure Farage won't return?
    Cliff-drop Brexit has a substantial constituency I'd say, perhaps 10-15%.
    And probably 20-25% more, mostly Conservatives, for a negotiated WTO Brexit.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    kjohnw said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    I really doubt Theresa May can win a vote of no confidence, and so does she which is why she has not called for one, John Major style. It would not be May vs Boris or May vs Rees-Mogg but of May versus the aggregate of everyone else and their supporters. The government would not fall, it would be wholly personal.
    You do not seem to know how it works. 48 letters to Graham Brady triggers a VONC and if that happened she would receive a 200 odd majority, especially after the huge reception she received at the 1922 Committee last night. Indeed that is why the noise for a VNOC is disappearing
    disagree, If she waters down further Chequers deal (which is very likely) and then a VONC is called MPs will be looking ahead to 2022 and their future careers thinking do I want this loser PM to fight the next GE, and in the secrecy of the ballot box will vote against TM
    The direction of travel is with TM and it seems it is widening today with cross party support.

    I do agree if she was to concede too much then that could be problematic and she must ensure that she stengthens preparation for a no deal case
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,182
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Farage won't be coming back. UKIP had an easy time of it previously, in that they could promise completely different things to different audiences. This time, to contrast himself with Theresa, Farage would specifically have to advocate cliff-drop Brexit. He'd be shot down in flames.
    Farage has said he will return as UKIP leader next March when Batten's term ends if it is BINO, most likely on a hard Brexit platform
    I suspect Farage will be one a "Brexit Should Mean Brexit" platform... They'll probably use it on billboards all over the country. :D
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,738
    rkrkrk said:



    Farage won't be coming back. UKIP had an easy time of it previously, in that they could promise completely different things to different audiences. This time, to contrast himself with Theresa, Farage would specifically have to advocate cliff-drop Brexit. He'd be shot down in flames.

    Why so sure Farage won't return?
    Cliff-drop Brexit has a substantial constituency I'd say, perhaps 10-15%.
    No. Support for cliff-drop Brexit will be derisory. We know this because the Leave campaign itself actually went out of its way to dismiss this possibility as part of Project Fear.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,182

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    I really doubt Theresa May can win a vote of no confidence, and so does she which is why she has not called for one, John Major style. It would not be May vs Boris or May vs Rees-Mogg but of May versus the aggregate of everyone else and their supporters. The government would not fall, it would be wholly personal.
    You do not seem to know how it works. 48 letters to Graham Brady triggers a VONC and if that happened she would receive a 200 odd majority, especially after the huge reception she received at the 1922 Committee last night. Indeed that is why the noise for a VNOC is disappearing
    Didn't someone once say they cheer you loudest (at the 1922) just before they stab you in the back? ;)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,448
    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.

    Even after 2017 & 2018 there seems to be so much complacency about May....

    Like "Remain" in the referendum there simply aren't any good reasons to vote Conservative under the current regime.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 6,427
    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Farage won't be coming back. UKIP had an easy time of it previously, in that they could promise completely different things to different audiences. This time, to contrast himself with Theresa, Farage would specifically have to advocate cliff-drop Brexit. He'd be shot down in flames.

    Why so sure Farage won't return?
    Cliff-drop Brexit has a substantial constituency I'd say, perhaps 10-15%.
    And probably 20-25% more, mostly Conservatives, for a negotiated WTO Brexit.
    40% of the 52% for WTO - sounds extremely unlikely.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    I really doubt Theresa May can win a vote of no confidence, and so does she which is why she has not called for one, John Major style. It would not be May vs Boris or May vs Rees-Mogg but of May versus the aggregate of everyone else and their supporters. The government would not fall, it would be wholly personal.
    You do not seem to know how it works. 48 letters to Graham Brady triggers a VONC and if that happened she would receive a 200 odd majority, especially after the huge reception she received at the 1922 Committee last night. Indeed that is why the noise for a VNOC is disappearing
    Didn't someone once say they cheer you loudest (at the 1922) just before they stab you in the back? ;)
    Not this time - remember Boris is not popular among the majority of conservative MP's
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,182

    rkrkrk said:



    Farage won't be coming back. UKIP had an easy time of it previously, in that they could promise completely different things to different audiences. This time, to contrast himself with Theresa, Farage would specifically have to advocate cliff-drop Brexit. He'd be shot down in flames.

    Why so sure Farage won't return?
    Cliff-drop Brexit has a substantial constituency I'd say, perhaps 10-15%.
    No. Support for cliff-drop Brexit will be derisory. We know this because the Leave campaign itself actually went out of its way to dismiss this possibility as part of Project Fear.
    Farage won't campaign on "Hard" or "Soft" Brexit terms.

    He'll campaign on Brexit In Name Only Vs Brexit Means Brexit. He'll take Theresa May's very own slogan and run with it...

    And he'll probably cause all kinds of havoc to both Con and Lab but the main party to be hit at the next election will be Con because they are the one's who said Brexit Means Brexit and then sold their Leave voters down the river.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 20,291

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    I really doubt Theresa May can win a vote of no confidence, and so does she which is why she has not called for one, John Major style. It would not be May vs Boris or May vs Rees-Mogg but of May versus the aggregate of everyone else and their supporters. The government would not fall, it would be wholly personal.
    You do not seem to know how it works. 48 letters to Graham Brady triggers a VONC and if that happened she would receive a 200 odd majority, especially after the huge reception she received at the 1922 Committee last night. Indeed that is why the noise for a VNOC is disappearing
    Hmmm. She might have got an easy ride at the '22 last night, but at the same time that was happening, 80+ Tory MPs were attending an ERG meeting, where I'm guesing they were not giving her a huge reception.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Farage won't be coming back. UKIP had an easy time of it previously, in that they could promise completely different things to different audiences. This time, to contrast himself with Theresa, Farage would specifically have to advocate cliff-drop Brexit. He'd be shot down in flames.
    Farage has said he will return as UKIP leader next March when Batten's term ends if it is BINO, most likely on a hard Brexit platform
    I suspect Farage will be one a "Brexit Should Mean Brexit" platform... They'll probably use it on billboards all over the country. :D
    Almost certainly
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,835

    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Dave won a majority when UKIP polled nearly 13%.

    Mrs May didn't win a majority when UKIP polled less than 2%.

    A good Tory leader knows how to win a majority with UKIP polling highly.
    Dave 2015 votes 11,334,226
    May 2017 votes 13,636,684

    Dave 2015 Scottish seats 1
    May 2017 Scottish seats 13
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283
    If UKIP are on 5% they are already higher than they polled in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010 and 2017.

    The only election they got more than 5% was 2015 when they got 12%.

    Who said UKIP was dead?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,879
    GIN1138 said:
    Makes you remember when there was honour in politics. One of the good guys

    RIP
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 887
    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Anyone thinking the next election will be easy for Labour are missing the obvious. At the last election the Tories polled over 40% with one of the worst political communicators I’ve seen. Gordon Brown who was comparable got 29%. There is one Corbyn shaped reason for that, and that does not even take into account the fact that people voted think8ng that Labour had no chance of getting into Government. The only way Corbyn gets in is if the Tory party splits, and I think that must be driving the MPs current behaviour in supporting Mays incoherent plan.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,512

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    I really doubt Theresa May can win a vote of no confidence, and so does she which is why she has not called for one, John Major style. It would not be May vs Boris or May vs Rees-Mogg but of May versus the aggregate of everyone else and their supporters. The government would not fall, it would be wholly personal.
    You do not seem to know how it works. 48 letters to Graham Brady triggers a VONC and if that happened she would receive a 200 odd majority, especially after the huge reception she received at the 1922 Committee last night. Indeed that is why the noise for a VNOC is disappearing
    I do know how it works, and give no credence to desk banging. JRM's apparent change of heart might be more important, since his ERG on its own has more than enough members to trigger a vote. Theresa May would, in my view, lose as already stated. If the Prime Minister were confident of a 200-odd majority, she would call for the vote herself to make her secure till after Brexit -- as some allies hinted she might. That seems to have died away too.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    GIN1138 said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Farage won't be coming back. UKIP had an easy time of it previously, in that they could promise completely different things to different audiences. This time, to contrast himself with Theresa, Farage would specifically have to advocate cliff-drop Brexit. He'd be shot down in flames.

    Why so sure Farage won't return?
    Cliff-drop Brexit has a substantial constituency I'd say, perhaps 10-15%.
    No. Support for cliff-drop Brexit will be derisory. We know this because the Leave campaign itself actually went out of its way to dismiss this possibility as part of Project Fear.
    Farage won't campaign on "Hard" or "Soft" Brexit terms.

    He'll campaign on Brexit In Name Only Vs Brexit Means Brexit. He'll take Theresa May's very own slogan and run with it...

    And he'll probably cause all kinds of havoc to both Con and Lab but the main party to be hit at the next election will be Con because they are the one's who said Brexit Means Brexit and then sold their Leave voters down the river.
    Just a gentle comment but you are morphing into the opposite of Williamglenn
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,670
    Hopefully now the real moderates will see these remainer-ultras for what they are. They are ruining our party and the nation's ability to get a reasonable brexit deal on the slim chance they can reverse the public vote. They are putting their obsession with the EU above democracy and above the party. Truly they are the bastards and it is time to withdraw the whip.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,738
    GIN1138 said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Farage won't be coming back. UKIP had an easy time of it previously, in that they could promise completely different things to different audiences. This time, to contrast himself with Theresa, Farage would specifically have to advocate cliff-drop Brexit. He'd be shot down in flames.

    Why so sure Farage won't return?
    Cliff-drop Brexit has a substantial constituency I'd say, perhaps 10-15%.
    No. Support for cliff-drop Brexit will be derisory. We know this because the Leave campaign itself actually went out of its way to dismiss this possibility as part of Project Fear.
    Farage won't campaign on "Hard" or "Soft" Brexit terms.

    He'll campaign on Brexit In Name Only Vs Brexit Means Brexit. He'll take Theresa May's very own slogan and run with it...

    And he'll probably cause all kinds of havoc to both Con and Lab but the main party to be hit at the next election will be Con because they are the one's who said Brexit Means Brexit and then sold their Leave voters down the river.
    But this time he'll have to explain what his 'Brexit means Brexit' will actually entail. If he answers in woolly abstractions Theresa can just laugh at him and contrast her own concrete proposals with his vacuities; if he answers truthfully everyone will run to the hills.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 70,038

    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Dave won a majority when UKIP polled nearly 13%.

    Mrs May didn't win a majority when UKIP polled less than 2%.

    A good Tory leader knows how to win a majority with UKIP polling highly.
    Dave 2015 votes 11,334,226
    May 2017 votes 13,636,684

    Dave 2015 Scottish seats 1
    May 2017 Scottish seats 13
    Perhaps you could post the following

    1) The number of Labour voted in 2015 and 2017

    2) The Tory lead over Labour in 2015 and 2017

    3) The number of Tory and Labour MPs elected in 2015 and 2017
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 17,537
    DavidL said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Makes you remember when there was honour in politics. One of the good guys

    RIP
    Feels like a different age, which indeed it was.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    I really doubt Theresa May can win a vote of no confidence, and so does she which is why she has not called for one, John Major style. It would not be May vs Boris or May vs Rees-Mogg but of May versus the aggregate of everyone else and their supporters. The government would not fall, it would be wholly personal.
    You do not seem to know how it works. 48 letters to Graham Brady triggers a VONC and if that happened she would receive a 200 odd majority, especially after the huge reception she received at the 1922 Committee last night. Indeed that is why the noise for a VNOC is disappearing
    I do know how it works, and give no credence to desk banging. JRM's apparent change of heart might be more important, since his ERG on its own has more than enough members to trigger a vote. Theresa May would, in my view, lose as already stated. If the Prime Minister were confident of a 200-odd majority, she would call for the vote herself to make her secure till after Brexit -- as some allies hinted she might. That seems to have died away too.
    No need for her to do anything she is not going anywhere this side of March 2019
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,105
    World in Motion.

    Not sure it has quite so many different recordings.



    3 Lions v Norwich Cathedrals Choristers.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,069

    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Dave won a majority when UKIP polled nearly 13%.

    Mrs May didn't win a majority when UKIP polled less than 2%.

    A good Tory leader knows how to win a majority with UKIP polling highly.
    Dave 2015 votes 11,334,226
    May 2017 votes 13,636,684

    Dave 2015 Scottish seats 1
    May 2017 Scottish seats 13
    She lost seats to Corbyn. And the idea that she was responsible for the success in Scotland is risible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283
    Trump full of enthusiasm about meeting Boris calling him 'a great friend.'

    Little mention of May on the other hand

    https://mobile.twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1016651900190646272
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    Breaking news

    All children and the trainer are out of the caves and all are safe.

    Let us all agree that is fabulous news today
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    HYUFD said:

    Trump full of enthusiasm about meeting Boris calling him 'a great friend.'

    Little mention of May on the other hand

    https://mobile.twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1016651900190646272

    That is going to help May more than Boris

    Trump is going to cause chaos over the next few days
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,835
    midwinter said:

    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Dave won a majority when UKIP polled nearly 13%.

    Mrs May didn't win a majority when UKIP polled less than 2%.

    A good Tory leader knows how to win a majority with UKIP polling highly.
    Dave 2015 votes 11,334,226
    May 2017 votes 13,636,684

    Dave 2015 Scottish seats 1
    May 2017 Scottish seats 13
    She lost seats to Corbyn. And the idea that she was responsible for the success in Scotland is risible.
    Dave 2015 36.9%
    May 2017 42.4%
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 17,537

    HYUFD said:

    Trump full of enthusiasm about meeting Boris calling him 'a great friend.'

    Little mention of May on the other hand

    https://mobile.twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1016651900190646272

    That is going to help May more than Boris

    Trump is going to cause chaos over the next few days
    Trump probably unaware he will be meeting some chap called Hunt actually.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,835

    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Dave won a majority when UKIP polled nearly 13%.

    Mrs May didn't win a majority when UKIP polled less than 2%.

    A good Tory leader knows how to win a majority with UKIP polling highly.
    Dave 2015 votes 11,334,226
    May 2017 votes 13,636,684

    Dave 2015 Scottish seats 1
    May 2017 Scottish seats 13
    Perhaps you could post the following

    1) The number of Labour voted in 2015 and 2017

    2) The Tory lead over Labour in 2015 and 2017

    3) The number of Tory and Labour MPs elected in 2015 and 2017
    No need when the following bar charts will suffice:

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,205
    If the shambles of the remains of UKIP can get back up to 5% without Farage, is it unreasonable to expect them to get up to 10% with him restored as Leader?

    Other nuggets from that YouGov poll:

    - "How well or badly do you think the government are doing at negotiating Britain's exit from the European Union?" Well 18%, badly 66% Net -48%. Worst net score on record by some margin. Back in mid April score for Leave voters was net 0%. Now net -44%.

    - 7% of 2017 Con voters would now vote UKIP. 2 weeks ago it was 3% and the Conservatives were 5% ahead.



  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178

    HYUFD said:

    Trump full of enthusiasm about meeting Boris calling him 'a great friend.'

    Little mention of May on the other hand

    https://mobile.twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1016651900190646272

    That is going to help May more than Boris

    Trump is going to cause chaos over the next few days
    Trump probably unaware he will be meeting some chap called Hunt actually.
    I would agree
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,851
    edited July 10

    Breaking news

    All children and the trainer are out of the caves and all are safe.

    Let us all agree that is fabulous news today

    Truly something to rejoice over. Congratulations to everyone involved.

    Edit: there are still four rescuers in the cave that need to be retrieved.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,771

    rkrkrk said:



    Farage won't be coming back. UKIP had an easy time of it previously, in that they could promise completely different things to different audiences. This time, to contrast himself with Theresa, Farage would specifically have to advocate cliff-drop Brexit. He'd be shot down in flames.

    Why so sure Farage won't return?
    Cliff-drop Brexit has a substantial constituency I'd say, perhaps 10-15%.
    No. Support for cliff-drop Brexit will be derisory. We know this because the Leave campaign itself actually went out of its way to dismiss this possibility as part of Project Fear.
    The Leave Campaign was trying to win 50% of the vote.
    You're kidding yourself if you don't think there is at least 10% of the country who don't much care about economic damage, but really, really care about immigration control/sovereignty/hating on the EU.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,641
    GIN1138 said:

    I suspect Farage will be one a "Brexit Should Mean Brexit" platform... They'll probably use it on billboards all over the country. :D

    Perhaps if the Hard Brexiteers could hole themselves up in a country house somewhere and produce a coherent plan we'd have something to compare with Chequers. A Cliveden Brexit perhaps?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,879

    Breaking news

    All children and the trainer are out of the caves and all are safe.

    Let us all agree that is fabulous news today

    An incredible achievement. And 2 British divers playing a key role.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    GIN1138 said:

    I suspect Farage will be one a "Brexit Should Mean Brexit" platform... They'll probably use it on billboards all over the country. :D

    Perhaps if the Hard Brexiteers could hole themselves up in a country house somewhere and produce a coherent plan we'd have something to compare with Chequers. A Cliveden Brexit perhaps?
    I told you I would keep calling you out on this lie. No matter how many times you repeat it, it is still a lie. The Hard Brexit plan is CETA plus, always has been.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,069

    midwinter said:

    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Dave won a majority when UKIP polled nearly 13%.

    Mrs May didn't win a majority when UKIP polled less than 2%.

    A good Tory leader knows how to win a majority with UKIP polling highly.
    Dave 2015 votes 11,334,226
    May 2017 votes 13,636,684

    Dave 2015 Scottish seats 1
    May 2017 Scottish seats 13
    She lost seats to Corbyn. And the idea that she was responsible for the success in Scotland is risible.
    Dave 2015 36.9%
    May 2017 42.4%
    Dave 2017 330 seats.
    May 2017 317

    Lucky Ruth won those extra seats in Scotland wasn't it
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    GIN1138 said:






    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.

    I really doubt Theresa May can win a vote of no confidence, and so does she which is why she has not called for one, John Major style. It would not be May vs Boris or May vs Rees-Mogg but of May versus the aggregate of everyone else and their supporters. The government would not fall, it would be wholly personal.
    You do not seem to know how it works. 48 letters to Graham Brady triggers a VONC and if that happened she would receive a 200 odd majority, especially after the huge reception she received at the 1922 Committee last night. Indeed that is why the noise for a VNOC is disappearing
    I do know how it works, and give no credence to desk banging. JRM's apparent change of heart might be more important, since his ERG on its own has more than enough members to trigger a vote. Theresa May would, in my view, lose as already stated. If the Prime Minister were confident of a 200-odd majority, she would call for the vote herself to make her secure till after Brexit -- as some allies hinted she might. That seems to have died away too.
    No need for her to do anything she is not going anywhere this side of March 2019
    I think JRM and the ERG are waiting for the White Paper. Then they will forensically demolish May's Chequers plan. Once it has lost all credibility and the EU start indicating they want more concessions, it will be time to strike.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    GIN1138 said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Farage won't be coming back. UKIP had an easy time of it previously, in that they could promise completely different things to different audiences. This time, to contrast himself with Theresa, Farage would specifically have to advocate cliff-drop Brexit. He'd be shot down in flames.

    Why so sure Farage won't return?
    Cliff-drop Brexit has a substantial constituency I'd say, perhaps 10-15%.
    No. Support for cliff-drop Brexit will be derisory. We know this because the Leave campaign itself actually went out of its way to dismiss this possibility as part of Project Fear.
    Farage won't campaign on "Hard" or "Soft" Brexit terms.

    He'll campaign on Brexit In Name Only Vs Brexit Means Brexit. He'll take Theresa May's very own slogan and run with it...

    And he'll probably cause all kinds of havoc to both Con and Lab but the main party to be hit at the next election will be Con because they are the one's who said Brexit Means Brexit and then sold their Leave voters down the river.
    Just a gentle comment but you are morphing into the opposite of Williamglenn
    Sounds like a compliment.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,835
    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Dave won a majority when UKIP polled nearly 13%.

    Mrs May didn't win a majority when UKIP polled less than 2%.

    A good Tory leader knows how to win a majority with UKIP polling highly.
    Dave 2015 votes 11,334,226
    May 2017 votes 13,636,684

    Dave 2015 Scottish seats 1
    May 2017 Scottish seats 13
    She lost seats to Corbyn. And the idea that she was responsible for the success in Scotland is risible.
    Dave 2015 36.9%
    May 2017 42.4%
    Dave 2017 330 seats.
    May 2017 317

    Lucky Ruth won those extra seats in Scotland wasn't it
    Also lucky that Corbyn won only 4 more seats than Gordon did in 2010, isn't it?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,641

    GIN1138 said:

    I suspect Farage will be one a "Brexit Should Mean Brexit" platform... They'll probably use it on billboards all over the country. :D

    Perhaps if the Hard Brexiteers could hole themselves up in a country house somewhere and produce a coherent plan we'd have something to compare with Chequers. A Cliveden Brexit perhaps?
    I told you I would keep calling you out on this lie. No matter how many times you repeat it, it is still a lie. The Hard Brexit plan is CETA plus, always has been.
    But in order to deny the fact that this means an Irish sea border you interpret CETA in a way that in entirely different to what the EU is willing to offer so it's not realistic.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,300

    GIN1138 said:

    I suspect Farage will be one a "Brexit Should Mean Brexit" platform... They'll probably use it on billboards all over the country. :D

    Perhaps if the Hard Brexiteers could hole themselves up in a country house somewhere and produce a coherent plan we'd have something to compare with Chequers. A Cliveden Brexit perhaps?
    I told you I would keep calling you out on this lie. No matter how many times you repeat it, it is still a lie. The Hard Brexit plan is CETA plus, always has been.
    Its taken May, Robbins and the full force of the Civil Service 2 years to come up with her give everything the EU wants alternative.

    Given the Civil Service it would be very plausible to come up with a CETA-based alternative.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283
    edited July 10

    HYUFD said:

    Trump full of enthusiasm about meeting Boris calling him 'a great friend.'

    Little mention of May on the other hand

    https://mobile.twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1016651900190646272

    That is going to help May more than Boris

    Trump is going to cause chaos over the next few days
    Trump probably unaware he will be meeting some chap called Hunt actually.
    Just hope the meeting goes well otherwise Trump ay 'accidentally' get the first letter of the new Foreign Secretary's name wrong like a few Today presenters have done before
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,213

    FPT for TSE. France will probably beat Belgium. See my post early in that thread for Golden Boot and Golden Ball betting.

    Full confession time, I have a huge red if England win the world cup, but if the other three win it, they'll I'll be green.
    Best place to be. Compensation for disappointment, or you shell out a bit but enjoy one of the best sporting moments you're likely to experience.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,069

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Dave won a majority when UKIP polled nearly 13%.

    Mrs May didn't win a majority when UKIP polled less than 2%.

    A good Tory leader knows how to win a majority with UKIP polling highly.
    Dave 2015 votes 11,334,226
    May 2017 votes 13,636,684

    Dave 2015 Scottish seats 1
    May 2017 Scottish seats 13
    She lost seats to Corbyn. And the idea that she was responsible for the success in Scotland is risible.
    Dave 2015 36.9%
    May 2017 42.4%
    Dave 2017 330 seats.
    May 2017 317

    Lucky Ruth won those extra seats in Scotland wasn't it
    Also lucky that Corbyn won only 4 more seats than Gordon did in 2010, isn't it?
    More pertinently he won 30 more than Ed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 17,537
    Anorak said:

    FPT for TSE. France will probably beat Belgium. See my post early in that thread for Golden Boot and Golden Ball betting.

    Full confession time, I have a huge red if England win the world cup, but if the other three win it, they'll I'll be green.
    Best place to be. Compensation for disappointment, or you shell out a bit but enjoy one of the best sporting moments you're likely to experience.
    I've managed to end up green on all the remaining teams.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 11,163
    Can a Tory leader stand down voluntarily (i.e. no 48 letters) and subject themselves to a leadership election in which they stand?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,691
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump full of enthusiasm about meeting Boris calling him 'a great friend.'

    Little mention of May on the other hand

    https://mobile.twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1016651900190646272

    That is going to help May more than Boris

    Trump is going to cause chaos over the next few days
    Trump probably unaware he will be meeting some chap called Hunt actually.
    Just hope the meeting goes well otherwise Trump ay 'accidentally' get the first letter of the new Foreign Secretary's name wrong like a few Today presenters have done before
    There is a certain similarity between the names "Emily Blunt" and "Jeremy Hunt" and at least Emily is a celebrity that Trump may have heard of before. Our new Foreign Secretary might end up being called Emily, which would at least make life easier for Thornberry if/when Labour win the next general election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 47,156
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Farage won't be coming back. UKIP had an easy time of it previously, in that they could promise completely different things to different audiences. This time, to contrast himself with Theresa, Farage would specifically have to advocate cliff-drop Brexit. He'd be shot down in flames.

    Why so sure Farage won't return?
    Cliff-drop Brexit has a substantial constituency I'd say, perhaps 10-15%.
    No. Support for cliff-drop Brexit will be derisory. We know this because the Leave campaign itself actually went out of its way to dismiss this possibility as part of Project Fear.
    The Leave Campaign was trying to win 50% of the vote.
    You're kidding yourself if you don't think there is at least 10% of the country who don't much care about economic damage, but really, really care about immigration control/sovereignty/hating on the EU.
    Any referendum neccesarily creates ultra-broad colaitions of voters.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    GIN1138 said:

    I suspect Farage will be one a "Brexit Should Mean Brexit" platform... They'll probably use it on billboards all over the country. :D

    Perhaps if the Hard Brexiteers could hole themselves up in a country house somewhere and produce a coherent plan we'd have something to compare with Chequers. A Cliveden Brexit perhaps?
    I told you I would keep calling you out on this lie. No matter how many times you repeat it, it is still a lie. The Hard Brexit plan is CETA plus, always has been.
    But in order to deny the fact that this means an Irish sea border you interpret CETA in a way that in entirely different to what the EU is willing to offer so it's not realistic.
    Standard CETA, with 100% tariff free and no quotas. MaxFac to deal with NI border. Take it or leave it - and they would take it. In a second.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,879
    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:

    So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?


    Before.
    So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further year

    The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
    She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.

    If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
    Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.

    Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
    The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.

    Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
    That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happen
    Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.

    All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.

    And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
    Dave won a majority when UKIP polled nearly 13%.

    Mrs May didn't win a majority when UKIP polled less than 2%.

    A good Tory leader knows how to win a majority with UKIP polling highly.
    Dave 2015 votes 11,334,226
    May 2017 votes 13,636,684

    Dave 2015 Scottish seats 1
    May 2017 Scottish seats 13
    She lost seats to Corbyn. And the idea that she was responsible for the success in Scotland is risible.
    Dave 2015 36.9%
    May 2017 42.4%
    Dave 2017 330 seats.
    May 2017 317

    Lucky Ruth won those extra seats in Scotland wasn't it
    Not sure luck had much to do with it. Ruth’s campaign was everything May’s wasn’t. It had clear messages, clear objectives and Ruth led from the front.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,781
    Anorak said:

    FPT for TSE. France will probably beat Belgium. See my post early in that thread for Golden Boot and Golden Ball betting.

    Full confession time, I have a huge red if England win the world cup, but if the other three win it, they'll I'll be green.
    Best place to be. Compensation for disappointment, or you shell out a bit but enjoy one of the best sporting moments you're likely to experience.
    Given TSE history of betting on England, thats a great sign....for England.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,781
    IanB2 said:

    Can a Tory leader stand down voluntarily (i.e. no 48 letters) and subject themselves to a leadership election in which they stand?

    Even if you couldn't, you just get your mates to write the letters.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,990
    That’s awesome news, massive well done to everyone involved, a number of whom are volunteers rather than military or professionals.

    Hopefully the Brits involved will find themselves appropriately rewarded.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,738

    GIN1138 said:

    I suspect Farage will be one a "Brexit Should Mean Brexit" platform... They'll probably use it on billboards all over the country. :D

    Perhaps if the Hard Brexiteers could hole themselves up in a country house somewhere and produce a coherent plan we'd have something to compare with Chequers. A Cliveden Brexit perhaps?
    I told you I would keep calling you out on this lie. No matter how many times you repeat it, it is still a lie. The Hard Brexit plan is CETA plus, always has been.
    But in order to deny the fact that this means an Irish sea border you interpret CETA in a way that in entirely different to what the EU is willing to offer so it's not realistic.
    Standard CETA, with 100% tariff free and no quotas. MaxFac to deal with NI border. Take it or leave it - and they would take it. In a second.
    In that case doesn't that make DD the most incompetent buffoon in world negotiating history? He could have saved us all this trouble and his own job with a single utterance.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,879

    IanB2 said:

    Can a Tory leader stand down voluntarily (i.e. no 48 letters) and subject themselves to a leadership election in which they stand?

    Even if you couldn't, you just get your mates to write the letters.
    Hmm...May getting herself into an election she does not need to fight. What could possibly go wrong?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 11,163

    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    Morning Malc - thanks for your comments and I hope you are well and enjoying the weather. Was in Gods own Country two weeks ago and return in 10 days for another week.
    Hi G, been amazing , at least 6 weeks since we have had rain. Hope it holds for your return. Hope you and family are all well.

    Yes we are apart from my strained (and painful) hamstrings from overexertion on our cruise and 1200 miles static behind the wheel driving upto Lossiemouth and back
    You don't often see overexertion and cruise in the same sentence...
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,213

    GIN1138 said:

    I suspect Farage will be one a "Brexit Should Mean Brexit" platform... They'll probably use it on billboards all over the country. :D

    Perhaps if the Hard Brexiteers could hole themselves up in a country house somewhere and produce a coherent plan we'd have something to compare with Chequers. A Cliveden Brexit perhaps?
    I told you I would keep calling you out on this lie. No matter how many times you repeat it, it is still a lie. The Hard Brexit plan is CETA plus, always has been.
    But in order to deny the fact that this means an Irish sea border you interpret CETA in a way that in entirely different to what the EU is willing to offer so it's not realistic.
    Standard CETA, with 100% tariff free and no quotas. MaxFac to deal with NI border. Take it or leave it - and they would take it. In a second.
    In that case doesn't that make DD the most incompetent buffoon in world negotiating history? He could have saved us all this trouble and his own job with a single utterance.
    Hah. All this reminds of the time the EU would be begging us, BEGGING US, for an FTA so they could sell us more cars and prosecco. In a second.
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