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SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited July 11 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For all the machinations of the past few days the betting is still on this Parliament running its full course

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  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 902
    FPT:

    rpjs said:



    The ERG don't want to challenge May. Yet.

    I think their plan is becoming clearer. Boris has not made a press appearance but I believe he is entitled to a resignation address in the HoC - he is probably furiously working away at this now. JRM remember is a Boris backer. My guess is that we will see:

    - ERG collecting but not submitting letters of no confidence
    - Boris, DD and Baker putting together the detailed Leaver Brexit plan that they always thought was going to happen (eg CETA) and backing this up with their internal knowledge on MaxFac.
    - Remember, the 'delays' with MaxFac were the 'big problem' (mostly made up in my view) - but the delays on May's customs partnership will be far longer as it is far more complex.
    - JRM and co will dismantle the White Paper the moment it arrives.
    - Boris will make his entrance as the 'man with the plan', and detail how a CETA deal and MaxFac is perfectly possible. Baker (and DD) will support.
    - The main focus will be May's NI backstop decision, which has to be reversed before CETA can be implemented. I think the fact that BOTH the resignation letters today specifically mentioned this, as did DD, is no accident and means that May is going to get pinned on this as one of the most disastrous decisions by a PM in history. It will also be revealed that it was her decision alone. Since May still has to agree the backstop text to get her Chequers deal this is the point to attack - she will not be able to solve this issue anyway as there is still no backstop text agreed or that looks like it can be agreed.

    Then, if May won't back down and go to the CETA plan, the letters will go in.

    But the EU has made it clear that the Irish backstop is a pre-requisite for any deal. Hope you like powdered egg.
    Well, as many here point out, I live in Australia, where every good from every country goes through customs as well as very stringent quarantine checks. Yet the supermarkets are completely full of food, the stores full of goods, the manufacturers have their parts. It must be magic. I think the Unicorns must bring it all in.

    If the EU require a NI backstop (or I should say, a legally enforceable backstop) then No Deal is the only responsible outcome.
    Yup, because your supply chains were built up over time with your customs procedures built in. Plus you are a net exporter of food, are you not? Brexit Britain is very much not a net exporter of food, and may find that suddenly disrupting its supply chains with previously non-existent customs procedures to be an experience not necessarily to its advantage.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,724
    rpjs said:

    FPT:


    Yup, because your supply chains were built up over time with your customs procedures built in. Plus you are a net exporter of food, are you not? Brexit Britain is very much not a net exporter of food, and may find that suddenly disrupting its supply chains with previously non-existent customs procedures to be an experience not necessarily to its advantage.

    This is such a canard. If the new procedures will lengthen the process of getting food in the country, have a transition period. We are bright enough to think about transition periods in relation to a new arrangement with the EU, so why on earth would we not be bright enough to have transitional arrangements (which could be unilateral if it is to be a no-deal Brexit) to ensure that there is not abrupt disruption of the supply chain?

    If it is a no deal Brexit, we will have full control of the customs procedures in place for imports, including the right to waive procedures entirely until infrastructure is in place to cope.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,021
    Third.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,630
    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 964
    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    One of those things you never get around to reading in the terms and conditions...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,587
    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,044

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,622
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
    Indeed so, they’re losing customers in the West at a massive rate.

    More importantly, how was the match?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,044
    @RCS1000

    Interesting video, but aren't you underestimating the potential fall in London house prices? Markets usually overshoot before reverting to trend.

    Also, surely it is low interest rates that are the cause?. The returns on other forms of savings have become viable only because real interest rates are so poor, and mortgages so affordable.

    Possibly covered in thread, but I missed it due to bring at the football match.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,202
    Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828

    Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

    To be fair, it is Remainers setting the bar low by suggesting that it might be otherwise. I know there's lots of talk about GDP too, but I bet the vast majority of people don't have a clue about that and wouldn't notice any difference. Inflation, now that would be noticed.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,001
    as a paid up member of the celtic fringe I wish England every success tonight
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,836
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
    Why hypocritical?

    As a consumer you are making a choice

    It’s not like you are evangelising the use of Facebook while avoiding it yourself
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,001
    edited July 11

    Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

    no need to worry Essex boy, as long as we have remainers there'll be no shortage of sour grapes

    I assume you'll be celebrating with sparkling vinegar tonight ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,044
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
    Indeed so, they’re losing customers in the West at a massive rate.

    More importantly, how was the match?
    Weird!

    France clearly the better side. Kante and Pogba are a classy combination. If we get past Croatia, they will dominate our midfielders.

    It was a strange experience being in a largely neutral crowd, unsegregated and able to drink beer in the seats. Very international crowd, sitting around me were Israelis, Mexicans, Russians, Salvadoreans, Lots of Brazilians, more Belgians than French. The neutrals are all favouring England, or at least being polite to England kit wearing Foxy and Fox jr!

    Watching tonight in the St Petersburg fanpark, then train to Moscow on Thursday. Will try to get tickets for final if we get to it. It seems a lot of Brazilians and others have returned tickets, so not too difficult to acquire for the SF. It might be similar for the Final.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 602

    Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

    Those who are trying to sabotage Brexit are like the November [1918] criminals.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,202
    On topic, I’ve always expected this Parliament to see out its term. The more chaotic it is, the less it is under any one group’s control to bring it to an end.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,044
    edited July 11
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
    Why hypocritical?

    As a consumer you are making a choice

    It’s not like you are evangelising the use of Facebook while avoiding it yourself
    I am sure other companies are just as cavalier with personal information. We live in the Panopticon nowadays.

    As a user, I am the product, the consumer is the one who pays.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,044

    On topic, I’ve always expected this Parliament to see out its term. The more chaotic it is, the less it is under any one group’s control to bring it to an end.

    The end may well happen by accident rather than design. This is certainly a rather accident Prime Parliament!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,376
    daodao said:

    Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

    Those who are trying to sabotage Brexit are like the November [1918] criminals.
    I.e. used by the true villains (the Brexiteers) as an excuse for their failure?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,044
    daodao said:

    Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

    Those who are trying to sabotage Brexit are like the November [1918] criminals.
    Interesting. Weren't the "November Criminals" bringing to an end a futile costly war, as speedily as possible and with an aim of sparing further suffering?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,344

    On topic, I’ve always expected this Parliament to see out its term. The more chaotic it is, the less it is under any one group’s control to bring it to an end.

    To me 2021 looks underpriced.
    I don't see why TM or a future Tory leader would particularly want to cling on for the final year, the Brexit transition will likely be done by then and polling may have improved by then.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,376
    MTimT said:

    rpjs said:

    FPT:


    Yup, because your supply chains were built up over time with your customs procedures built in. Plus you are a net exporter of food, are you not? Brexit Britain is very much not a net exporter of food, and may find that suddenly disrupting its supply chains with previously non-existent customs procedures to be an experience not necessarily to its advantage.

    This is such a canard. If the new procedures will lengthen the process of getting food in the country, have a transition period. We are bright enough to think about transition periods in relation to a new arrangement with the EU, so why on earth would we not be bright enough to have transitional arrangements (which could be unilateral if it is to be a no-deal Brexit) to ensure that there is not abrupt disruption of the supply chain?

    If it is a no deal Brexit, we will have full control of the customs procedures in place for imports, including the right to waive procedures entirely until infrastructure is in place to cope.
    So taking back control = abandoning all control over what comes into our country, no matter how dangerous or illegal?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 964
    edited July 11
    I suspect daodao made the comparison knowing who they were and what they were (almost certainly wrongly) accused of.......
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,286
    So as Mr Davis worked through his decision tree, taking account of decisions we have already made and ones we anticipate others making, he will have realised that there is no journey that ends up with the Brexit he and Boris are after. The best he might get is a dead end and an economically calamitous “no deal”.

    So he and Boris have chosen their own dead end, a resignation that leads nowhere. It is fascinating that having rebelled against Mrs May’s proposal, the hard Brexiteers don’t now propose to get rid of her. It’s because they appreciate that getting rid of her won’t help them reach their goal.

    But Mr Davis has gone one step further. He has laid the logic out in a chain. He realises that there is no pathway to their goal. So he has simply given up.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/david-davis-and-boris-johnson-both-hit-a-brexit-dead-end-cgdcxqnt7
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,685
    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,622
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
    Indeed so, they’re losing customers in the West at a massive rate.

    More importantly, how was the match?
    Weird!

    France clearly the better side. Kante and Pogba are a classy combination. If we get past Croatia, they will dominate our midfielders.

    It was a strange experience being in a largely neutral crowd, unsegregated and able to drink beer in the seats. Very international crowd, sitting around me were Israelis, Mexicans, Russians, Salvadoreans, Lots of Brazilians, more Belgians than French. The neutrals are all favouring England, or at least being polite to England kit wearing Foxy and Fox jr!

    Watching tonight in the St Petersburg fanpark, then train to Moscow on Thursday. Will try to get tickets for final if we get to it. It seems a lot of Brazilians and others have returned tickets, so not too difficult to acquire for the SF. It might be similar for the Final.
    Ah yes, a neutral crowd at a football match is a little weird, more like a rugby crowd in nature with everyone happily sitting and drinking beer together.

    The FSB clearly did a very good job of telling the more troublesome element of Russian football “fans” to keep their heads down for a few weeks, a friend of mine just got back after following England around the group and said there was no trouble anywhere.

    Good luck with getting tickets for the final, whether or not we make it there it will one hell of an experience, especially to be there with your boy.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,587
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
    Indeed so, they’re losing customers in the West at a massive rate.

    More importantly, how was the match?
    Weird!

    France clearly the better side. Kante and Pogba are a classy combination. If we get past Croatia, they will dominate our midfielders.

    It was a strange experience being in a largely neutral crowd, unsegregated and able to drink beer in the seats. Very international crowd, sitting around me were Israelis, Mexicans, Russians, Salvadoreans, Lots of Brazilians, more Belgians than French. The neutrals are all favouring England, or at least being polite to England kit wearing Foxy and Fox jr!

    Watching tonight in the St Petersburg fanpark, then train to Moscow on Thursday. Will try to get tickets for final if we get to it. It seems a lot of Brazilians and others have returned tickets, so not too difficult to acquire for the SF. It might be similar for the Final.
    Yes, France's Kante, Pogba and defence generally did a wonderful job of neutralising Belgium, whose attacking midfield is far better than ours. However, this might be where we are helped by England's reliance on scoring from set pieces rather than open play. Still, we mustn't get ahead of ourselves: there's still Croatia to beat first.

    Insofar as you can tell from watching on telly, there do seem to have been more fans from Central and South America and fewer from Europe than you'd expect.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,296
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
    Why hypocritical?

    As a consumer you are making a choice

    It’s not like you are evangelising the use of Facebook while avoiding it yourself
    Charles, can I thank you for your recommendation of 'Bad Blood' - I finished reading it last night and it really was an excellent and detailed description of the Theranos scandal.

    What went on was almost unbelievable, as were the great and good who were taken in.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,344
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
    Why hypocritical?

    As a consumer you are making a choice

    It’s not like you are evangelising the use of Facebook while avoiding it yourself
    I am sure other companies are just as cavalier with personal information. We live in the Panopticon nowadays.

    As a user, I am the product, the consumer is the one who pays.
    Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of data privacy and mega-internet companies, I think when you're up against a system - there is something to be said for just focusing on the most egregious offender, or the offender that symbolises the problem best.

    Perhaps you should delete all your apps, cut yourself off from technology and live as a digital outcast in a cabin in the woods. But short of that, I think focusing on one company is a reasonable start, which will worry their industry peers, raise the issue with lawmakers and hopefully lead to wider change.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,638

    Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

    Instead of sending £350 million to Brussels each week, we can spend it on beans and spam instead. Sovereignty will smell so good!!

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,344
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
    Indeed so, they’re losing customers in the West at a massive rate.

    More importantly, how was the match?
    Weird!

    France clearly the better side. Kante and Pogba are a classy combination. If we get past Croatia, they will dominate our midfielders.

    It was a strange experience being in a largely neutral crowd, unsegregated and able to drink beer in the seats. Very international crowd, sitting around me were Israelis, Mexicans, Russians, Salvadoreans, Lots of Brazilians, more Belgians than French. The neutrals are all favouring England, or at least being polite to England kit wearing Foxy and Fox jr!

    Watching tonight in the St Petersburg fanpark, then train to Moscow on Thursday. Will try to get tickets for final if we get to it. It seems a lot of Brazilians and others have returned tickets, so not too difficult to acquire for the SF. It might be similar for the Final.
    Thought Belgium created a lot less once they moved Hazard more centrally. He got the ball more, but in less dangerous situations. He needed to stay out wide and trust in De Bruyne and co. to get the ball to him.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,376

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    She will if Labour supports the deal
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,685

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    She will if Labour supports the deal
    Yes. But what is their price?
    Because if they don’t they could see the government collapse.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,638
    A full term Parliament makes sense, but now the Tory battle lines are fully drawn how does a Brexit deal get through? And how do you have a full term Parliament if there is a No Deal?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,790
    Good morning, everyone.

    Yeah, I reckon a 2022 election very likely as well.

    Bloody Belgians.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,687
    Foxy said:

    daodao said:

    Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

    Those who are trying to sabotage Brexit are like the November [1918] criminals.
    Interesting. Weren't the "November Criminals" bringing to an end a futile costly war, as speedily as possible and with an aim of sparing further suffering?
    I would have said 'futile' is the wrong word. It was a war they had lost, and the leaders were trying to salvage what they could because they feared otherwise they would be overthrown themselves.

    The irony is of course that because Germany wasn't invaded it left many Germans thinking they had been sold out rather than beaten, and led to, er, the leaders being overthrown 15 years later.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,044
    rkrkrk said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
    Indeed so, they’re losing customers in the West at a massive rate.

    More importantly, how was the match?
    Weird!

    France clearly the better side. Kante and Pogba are a classy combination. If we get past Croatia, they will dominate our midfielders.

    It was a strange experience being in a largely neutral crowd, unsegregated and able to drink beer in the seats. Very international crowd, sitting around me were Israelis, Mexicans, Russians, Salvadoreans, Lots of Brazilians, more Belgians than French. The neutrals are all favouring England, or at least being polite to England kit wearing Foxy and Fox jr!

    Watching tonight in the St Petersburg fanpark, then train to Moscow on Thursday. Will try to get tickets for final if we get to it. It seems a lot of Brazilians and others have returned tickets, so not too difficult to acquire for the SF. It might be similar for the Final.
    Thought Belgium created a lot less once they moved Hazard more centrally. He got the ball more, but in less dangerous situations. He needed to stay out wide and trust in De Bruyne and co. to get the ball to him.
    Lukaku was completely Isolated, and Hazard the only real threat. Belgium looked better with him on the wing.

    Lots of poor finishing by the frogs,
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,344

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    She will if Labour supports the deal
    Yes. But what is their price?
    Because if they don’t they could see the government collapse.
    She doesn't need all of Labour, I think there are enough who are terrified of no deal who would happily wave a soft(ish) brexit through...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,690

    And how do you have a full term Parliament if there is a No Deal?

    If everything's on fire then the government isn't going to want to call an election.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,593

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    It is clear she is seeking cross party support and in interviews with other parties, not Corbyn, she is receiving some kinder words, much to my surprise. I expect when she puts the agreement to the HOC she will compensate her hard Brexiteers (upto 50 max) with votes from other parties.

    It is to be hoped MP's vote in the National interest and not plunge us into a suicidal hard Brexit
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,687

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    She will if Labour supports the deal
    Yes. But what is their price?
    Because if they don’t they could see the government collapse.
    But it's not Labour, per se, that she needs to support it. We all know Corbyn won't, for a number of reasons.

    She needs three groups on board:

    1) A large majority of her backbenchers - which she has;

    2) The Labour remainers - a large majority of the PLP, who dislike Corbyn and don't want him in power because they know how big a disaster he would be for the country and for their party. I think this is why Barwell took the very unusual step of briefing Opposition MPs on the proposals. She seems to be trying to reach over the head of Corbyn;

    3) The EU. To be blunt they are the ones who will take most persuading and that may be where (as I said the other day) these resignations have helped. Even Barnier now seems to have twigged that May can't just cave in to anything he demands and he has sounded a lot more amiable in the last 48 hours.

    Could it work? Well, it requires many stars to align but in the mess we're in with no deal and chaos here and on the continent a real risk we don't have an awful lot to lose.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,790

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    She will if Labour supports the deal
    If Labour get a sniff of bringing the government down or forcing a GE then they have to try.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,593
    Dura_Ace said:

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    She will if Labour supports the deal
    If Labour get a sniff of bringing the government down or forcing a GE then they have to try.
    Corbyn yes but many of his mps no
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,587
    Scott_P said:

    So as Mr Davis worked through his decision tree, taking account of decisions we have already made and ones we anticipate others making, he will have realised that there is no journey that ends up with the Brexit he and Boris are after. The best he might get is a dead end and an economically calamitous “no deal”.

    So he and Boris have chosen their own dead end, a resignation that leads nowhere. It is fascinating that having rebelled against Mrs May’s proposal, the hard Brexiteers don’t now propose to get rid of her. It’s because they appreciate that getting rid of her won’t help them reach their goal.

    But Mr Davis has gone one step further. He has laid the logic out in a chain. He realises that there is no pathway to their goal. So he has simply given up.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/david-davis-and-boris-johnson-both-hit-a-brexit-dead-end-cgdcxqnt7

    Well yes, perhaps, though I've not read it as it is paywalled. Is there evidence of Davis and Boris acting in concert. let alone for this reason, or is it just surmise? Perhaps I must visit a newsagent.

    At risk of sounding like a broken record, this goes right back to David Cameron calling the referendum and then Theresa May triggering Article 50 without bothering to establish what Brexit might actually look like. The whole Brexit process, even as defined by its most ardent supporters, has looked like one of those decades-old project management cartoons where the penultimate frame calls for a miracle. We see the same in the government's ever-shifting position, and even in the lack of immediate response to the Chequers paper because there was nothing to judge it against. The ERG has a cunning plan, we are told, to bring down the Prime Minister. I doubt it. No-one seems to have a plan for anything.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,344
    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
    Indeed so, they’re losing customers in the West at a massive rate.

    More importantly, how was the match?
    Weird!

    France clearly the better side. Kante and Pogba are a classy combination. If we get past Croatia, they will dominate our midfielders.

    It was a strange experience being in a largely neutral crowd, unsegregated and able to drink beer in the seats. Very international crowd, sitting around me were Israelis, Mexicans, Russians, Salvadoreans, Lots of Brazilians, more Belgians than French. The neutrals are all favouring England, or at least being polite to England kit wearing Foxy and Fox jr!

    Watching tonight in the St Petersburg fanpark, then train to Moscow on Thursday. Will try to get tickets for final if we get to it. It seems a lot of Brazilians and others have returned tickets, so not too difficult to acquire for the SF. It might be similar for the Final.
    Thought Belgium created a lot less once they moved Hazard more centrally. He got the ball more, but in less dangerous situations. He needed to stay out wide and trust in De Bruyne and co. to get the ball to him.
    Lukaku was completely Isolated, and Hazard the only real threat. Belgium looked better with him on the wing.

    Lots of poor finishing by the frogs,
    Surprised Chadli stayed on, he offered very little tbh. And Dembele was really surprisingly poor I thought. Mertens had an impact when he came on.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,044

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
    Indeed so, they’re losing customers in the West at a massive rate.

    More importantly, how was the match?
    Weird!

    France clearly the better side. Kante and Pogba are a classy combination. If we get past Croatia, they will dominate our midfielders.

    It was a strange experience being in a largely neutral crowd, unsegregated and able to drink beer in the seats. Very international crowd, sitting around me were Israelis, Mexicans, Russians, Salvadoreans, Lots of Brazilians, more Belgians than French. The neutrals are all favouring England, or at least being polite to England kit wearing Foxy and Fox jr!

    Watching tonight in the St Petersburg fanpark, then train to Moscow on Thursday. Will try to get tickets for final if we get to it. It seems a lot of Brazilians and others have returned tickets, so not too difficult to acquire for the SF. It might be similar for the Final.
    Yes, France's Kante, Pogba and defence generally did a wonderful job of neutralising Belgium, whose attacking midfield is far better than ours. However, this might be where we are helped by England's reliance on scoring from set pieces rather than open play. Still, we mustn't get ahead of ourselves: there's still Croatia to beat first.

    Insofar as you can tell from watching on telly, there do seem to have been more fans from Central and South America and fewer from Europe than you'd expect.
    Mexicans everywhere, but also quite a lot of other Latin Americans too in St Petersburg, I guess that having come so far they want to enjoy. Build that wall!

    It was a tight tactical game, and will be tough to score from open play against those French.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,836
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
    Why hypocritical?

    As a consumer you are making a choice

    It’s not like you are evangelising the use of Facebook while avoiding it yourself
    I am sure other companies are just as cavalier with personal information. We live in the Panopticon nowadays.

    As a user, I am the product, the consumer is the one who pays.
    That just makes you selectively promiscuous, not hypocritical surely?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,687
    Dura_Ace said:

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    She will if Labour supports the deal
    If Labour get a sniff of bringing the government down or forcing a GE then they have to try.
    Labour going to the country having blocked an attempt at soft Brexit and therefore forcing us to WTO, maugre the wishes of the overwhelming majority of their voters?

    That would be - courageous.

    A smarter move would be to vote this through and let the government tear itself to pieces over something else over the next year. Wellington fell because of Catholic Emanciption, but it was another vote on a minor subject that he actually lost.

    Corbyn is not smart, as he is not principled or honest. But many of the PLP are and I think they will be wary of precipitating an election over blocking this.
  • The_Mule_The_Mule_ Posts: 24
    Foxy said:

    daodao said:

    Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

    Those who are trying to sabotage Brexit are like the November [1918] criminals.
    Interesting. Weren't the "November Criminals" bringing to an end a futile costly war, as speedily as possible and with an aim of sparing further suffering?
    Didnt they sign an Armistice 'back stop' without thinking through the consequences for the subsequent withdrawal from WW1 treaty>
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,836

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
    Why hypocritical?

    As a consumer you are making a choice

    It’s not like you are evangelising the use of Facebook while avoiding it yourself
    Charles, can I thank you for your recommendation of 'Bad Blood' - I finished reading it last night and it really was an excellent and detailed description of the Theranos scandal.

    What went on was almost unbelievable, as were the great and good who were taken in.
    Agreed

    There’s a lot of interesting themes for study. What’s impressive though is the number of juniors who tried to stop it and were fired / resigned because they thought it was unethical. That’s worth something at least
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,690

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    Threaten that if they don't give her the votes she needs, she'll have no option but to do a deal with LD+SNP+Remaniac-Lab, who will require a re-referendum as the price of their support.

    Please don't throw me into the briar patch etc etc.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,286

    Well yes, perhaps, though I've not read it as it is paywalled. Is there evidence of Davis and Boris acting in concert. let alone for this reason, or is it just surmise? Perhaps I must visit a newsagent.

    The article does not suggest they acted in concert, and is primarily focused on the actions of DD.

    The premise is that he likes to use to use a decision tree before acting, and that in order to achieve his desired goal, the tree would have to include decisions in the past that did not occur (like don't trigger Article 50 prematurely)

    In the old joke, if you want to get there you wouldn't start from here.

    So DD reasoned it was futile, and gave up. Boris just thought resigning was his next best career move.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,687
    The_Mule_ said:

    Foxy said:

    daodao said:

    Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

    Those who are trying to sabotage Brexit are like the November [1918] criminals.
    Interesting. Weren't the "November Criminals" bringing to an end a futile costly war, as speedily as possible and with an aim of sparing further suffering?
    Didnt they sign an Armistice 'back stop' without thinking through the consequences for the subsequent withdrawal from WW1 treaty>
    Alas, no. They signed a ceasefire with no conditions.

    They did of course plan to negotiate afterwards and found they were not allowed to, but that was a reflection of military reality not the terms they had failed to set.

    The joke is a worthy attempt, but unlike my awesome puns it does not quite work.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,286

    The ERG has a cunning plan, we are told, to bring down the Prime Minister. I doubt it. No-one seems to have a plan for anything.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,001

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    Threaten that if they don't give her the votes she needs, she'll have no option but to do a deal with LD+SNP+Remaniac-Lab, who will require a re-referendum as the price of their support.

    Please don't throw me into the briar patch etc etc.
    Knowing this, if May wants to look strong and in control she will preempt them and announce that she wants to put it to the people before they have chance to hold her to ransom.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,687
    Scott_P said:

    Well yes, perhaps, though I've not read it as it is paywalled. Is there evidence of Davis and Boris acting in concert. let alone for this reason, or is it just surmise? Perhaps I must visit a newsagent.

    The article does not suggest they acted in concert, and is primarily focused on the actions of DD.

    The premise is that he likes to use to use a decision tree before acting, and that in order to achieve his desired goal, the tree would have to include decisions in the past that did not occur (like don't trigger Article 50 prematurely)

    In the old joke, if you want to get there you wouldn't start from here.

    So DD reasoned it was futile, and gave up. Boris just thought resigning was his next best career move.
    As he himself said after Howard sacked him 15 years ago, he saw an opportunity, not a disaster. So he took the opportunity to have a fresh disaster.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,593
    ydoethur said:

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    She will if Labour supports the deal
    Yes. But what is their price?
    Because if they don’t they could see the government collapse.
    But it's not Labour, per se, that she needs to support it. We all know Corbyn won't, for a number of reasons.

    She needs three groups on board:

    1) A large majority of her backbenchers - which she has;

    2) The Labour remainers - a large majority of the PLP, who dislike Corbyn and don't want him in power because they know how big a disaster he would be for the country and for their party. I think this is why Barwell took the very unusual step of briefing Opposition MPs on the proposals. She seems to be trying to reach over the head of Corbyn;

    3) The EU. To be blunt they are the ones who will take most persuading and that may be where (as I said the other day) these resignations have helped. Even Barnier now seems to have twigged that May can't just cave in to anything he demands and he has sounded a lot more amiable in the last 48 hours.

    Could it work? Well, it requires many stars to align but in the mess we're in with no deal and chaos here and on the continent a real risk we don't have an awful lot to lose.
    Agree - the Brexiteers will have made the EU much more aware that they risk a real no deal situation and this in itself will focus minds.

    Good to ses Airbus and business yesterday welcoming the moves and in turn businesses EU wide will have seen the way things are heading and will be ramping up pressure on the governments to do a deal to protect their own jobs. TM is to meet all the EU leaders individually and negotiate directly with them.

    This last few days have been tumultuous but also have increased the chance of a deal (Barnier said yesterday they were 80% there) and of course there are only two options now, deal or no deal, remain is off the table
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,790
    Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

    Remain, or leave with no deal?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,622
    Scott_P said:

    Well yes, perhaps, though I've not read it as it is paywalled. Is there evidence of Davis and Boris acting in concert. let alone for this reason, or is it just surmise? Perhaps I must visit a newsagent.

    The article does not suggest they acted in concert, and is primarily focused on the actions of DD.

    The premise is that he likes to use to use a decision tree before acting, and that in order to achieve his desired goal, the tree would have to include decisions in the past that did not occur (like don't trigger Article 50 prematurely)

    In the old joke, if you want to get there you wouldn't start from here.

    So DD reasoned it was futile, and gave up. Boris just thought resigning was his next best career move.
    DD’s resignation could reasonably be described as principled, after the PM froze him out and went over his head on matters relating to his department’s brief.

    Boris, on the other hand, is as usual just looking out for Boris. I’d say any credibility he might have had left is now completely shot.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,687

    Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

    Remain, or leave with no deal?

    I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

    The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,001
    Meanwhile back with the sauer krauts

    Germans demand US stop messing with NATO but cant actually fulfil their own commitments and don't want to increase military spending

    eitherhttps://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/plus179140150/Nato-Gipfel-Angela-Merkel-kann-in-Bruessel-nicht-liefern.html

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article179144290/Umfrage-Deutsche-sind-klar-gegen-Erhoehung-von-Militaerausgaben.html


    should make for an interesting summit
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,885
    edited July 11
    Scott_P said:

    The ERG has a cunning plan, we are told, to bring down the Prime Minister. I doubt it. No-one seems to have a plan for anything.

    ERG are shooting one kidnapper a day.

    Edit the tweet made the same point. I didn't read it properly.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,790
    ydoethur said:




    Labour going to the country having blocked an attempt at soft Brexit and therefore forcing us to WTO, maugre the wishes of the overwhelming majority of their voters?

    It won't be Labour who blocked it, it will have been the ERG faction of the tories. Labour don't owe May any favours, pity or mercy and it's not up to them to deliver the government's program in the HoC.
  • The_Mule_The_Mule_ Posts: 24
    ydoethur said:

    The_Mule_ said:

    Foxy said:

    daodao said:

    Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

    Those who are trying to sabotage Brexit are like the November [1918] criminals.
    Interesting. Weren't the "November Criminals" bringing to an end a futile costly war, as speedily as possible and with an aim of sparing further suffering?
    Didnt they sign an Armistice 'back stop' without thinking through the consequences for the subsequent withdrawal from WW1 treaty>
    Alas, no. They signed a ceasefire with no conditions.

    They did of course plan to negotiate afterwards and found they were not allowed to, but that was a reflection of military reality not the terms they had failed to set.

    The joke is a worthy attempt, but unlike my awesome puns it does not quite work.
    They signed an armistice with lots of conditions - conditions only they themselves had to for fill - no hard border and a Rhine backstop for the army.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,690

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    Threaten that if they don't give her the votes she needs, she'll have no option but to do a deal with LD+SNP+Remaniac-Lab, who will require a re-referendum as the price of their support.

    Please don't throw me into the briar patch etc etc.
    Knowing this, if May wants to look strong and in control she will preempt them and announce that she wants to put it to the people before they have chance to hold her to ransom.
    True, but I wonder if it isn't actually easier for the opposition members, especially Remainiac Lab, if it looks like they're forcing the concession. It's not generally a great look for opposition MPs to be saving the government, so they're better off with a setup of "Tory disunity let us extract this concession" rather than "The government wanted to do this, and we threw them a lifeline when they were drowning".
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,044
    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

    Remain, or leave with no deal?

    I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

    The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.
    If there is a second referendum (unlikely++!) it would be impossible to not have Remain as a choice.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,344
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    Well yes, perhaps, though I've not read it as it is paywalled. Is there evidence of Davis and Boris acting in concert. let alone for this reason, or is it just surmise? Perhaps I must visit a newsagent.

    The article does not suggest they acted in concert, and is primarily focused on the actions of DD.

    The premise is that he likes to use to use a decision tree before acting, and that in order to achieve his desired goal, the tree would have to include decisions in the past that did not occur (like don't trigger Article 50 prematurely)

    In the old joke, if you want to get there you wouldn't start from here.

    So DD reasoned it was futile, and gave up. Boris just thought resigning was his next best career move.
    DD’s resignation could reasonably be described as principled, after the PM froze him out and went over his head on matters relating to his department’s brief.

    Boris, on the other hand, is as usual just looking out for Boris. I’d say any credibility he might have had left is now completely shot.
    If I had a pound for every time someone on here said Boris' credibility is shot....
    [not that I disagree with you]
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,001
    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

    Remain, or leave with no deal?

    I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

    The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.
    Explain the process by which 'leave with no deal' gets onto a referendum ballot paper.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,376
    The_Mule_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    The_Mule_ said:

    Foxy said:

    daodao said:

    Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

    Those who are trying to sabotage Brexit are like the November [1918] criminals.
    Interesting. Weren't the "November Criminals" bringing to an end a futile costly war, as speedily as possible and with an aim of sparing further suffering?
    Didnt they sign an Armistice 'back stop' without thinking through the consequences for the subsequent withdrawal from WW1 treaty>
    Alas, no. They signed a ceasefire with no conditions.

    They did of course plan to negotiate afterwards and found they were not allowed to, but that was a reflection of military reality not the terms they had failed to set.

    The joke is a worthy attempt, but unlike my awesome puns it does not quite work.
    They signed an armistice with lots of conditions - conditions only they themselves had to for fill - no hard border and a Rhine backstop for the army.
    Versailles means Versailles
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,687
    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:




    Labour going to the country having blocked an attempt at soft Brexit and therefore forcing us to WTO, maugre the wishes of the overwhelming majority of their voters?

    It won't be Labour who blocked it, it will have been the ERG faction of the tories. Labour don't owe May any favours, pity or mercy and it's not up to them to deliver the government's program in the HoC.
    Hmmm.

    I am not sure their voters will quite see it that way.

    Or to put it another way, they will see Labour siding with the ERG to deliver a hard Brexit.

    Now that might suit Corbyn but I think there might be awkward conversations about it elsewhere with sane MPs and candidates.

    I also do think there will be a number of Labour MPs sufficiently alarmed at this situation to wave through a deal. There are two groups who will support it:

    1) Pragamatists. Their calculation will be otherwise the government splits, falls, they come in and the first thing they have to deal with is economic meltdown caused by no-deal for which they will get the blame.

    2) Principled. They will vote because they believe if we can't stay in the EU we must stay as close as possible.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,593
    edited July 11
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

    Remain, or leave with no deal?

    I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

    The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.
    If there is a second referendum (unlikely++!) it would be impossible to not have Remain as a choice.
    Agree but I am not at all sure that remain would win in this atmosphere and indeed it could be a narrow vote either way creating more chaos.

    Maybe a 'peoples vote' is not the silver bullet most think it is
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,687

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

    Remain, or leave with no deal?

    I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

    The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.
    Explain the process by which 'leave with no deal' gets onto a referendum ballot paper.
    Okaaay...

    First of all you get some paper. Then you get some printer's ink. Then you put the two through a press and bingo! you have a ballot paper.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,001

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    Threaten that if they don't give her the votes she needs, she'll have no option but to do a deal with LD+SNP+Remaniac-Lab, who will require a re-referendum as the price of their support.

    Please don't throw me into the briar patch etc etc.
    Knowing this, if May wants to look strong and in control she will preempt them and announce that she wants to put it to the people before they have chance to hold her to ransom.
    True, but I wonder if it isn't actually easier for the opposition members, especially Remainiac Lab, if it looks like they're forcing the concession. It's not generally a great look for opposition MPs to be saving the government, so they're better off with a setup of "Tory disunity let us extract this concession" rather than "The government wanted to do this, and we threw them a lifeline when they were drowning".
    Once May has announced it, I think the political pressure on Labour MPs to back it would be overwhelming. If Corbyn tried to block it to force a GE instead it would to seen to be such a cynical move it would destroy the Labour party.

    I also wonder if there isn't a loophole hidden in the Henry VIII powers to allow the government to bypass parliament on this.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,687
    The_Mule_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    The_Mule_ said:

    Foxy said:

    daodao said:

    Good to see the current extent of aspirations of Leavers: the supermarkets will probably have food on the shelves. Not that the past sturdy pronouncements of Leavers mean that much faith can be put in those assurances.

    Those who are trying to sabotage Brexit are like the November [1918] criminals.
    Interesting. Weren't the "November Criminals" bringing to an end a futile costly war, as speedily as possible and with an aim of sparing further suffering?
    Didnt they sign an Armistice 'back stop' without thinking through the consequences for the subsequent withdrawal from WW1 treaty>
    Alas, no. They signed a ceasefire with no conditions.

    They did of course plan to negotiate afterwards and found they were not allowed to, but that was a reflection of military reality not the terms they had failed to set.

    The joke is a worthy attempt, but unlike my awesome puns it does not quite work.
    They signed an armistice with lots of conditions - conditions only they themselves had to for fill - no hard border and a Rhine backstop for the army.
    Yes, but that was in 1919. You were talking about 1918, which was different. 1918=transition period, 1919=trade deal.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,001
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

    Remain, or leave with no deal?

    I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

    The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.
    Explain the process by which 'leave with no deal' gets onto a referendum ballot paper.
    Okaaay...

    First of all you get some paper. Then you get some printer's ink. Then you put the two through a press and bingo! you have a ballot paper.
    I meant the political process...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,748
    Scott_P said:

    So as Mr Davis worked through his decision tree, taking account of decisions we have already made and ones we anticipate others making, he will have realised that there is no journey that ends up with the Brexit he and Boris are after. The best he might get is a dead end and an economically calamitous “no deal”.

    So he and Boris have chosen their own dead end, a resignation that leads nowhere. It is fascinating that having rebelled against Mrs May’s proposal, the hard Brexiteers don’t now propose to get rid of her. It’s because they appreciate that getting rid of her won’t help them reach their goal.

    But Mr Davis has gone one step further. He has laid the logic out in a chain. He realises that there is no pathway to their goal. So he has simply given up.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/david-davis-and-boris-johnson-both-hit-a-brexit-dead-end-cgdcxqnt7

    Very much like student Marxists who then realise their folly and go on to become investment bankers later on.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,344

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

    Remain, or leave with no deal?

    I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

    The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.
    If there is a second referendum (unlikely++!) it would be impossible to not have Remain as a choice.
    Agree but I am not at all sure that remain would win in this atmosphere and indeed it could be a narrow vote either way creating more chaos.

    Maybe a 'peoples vote' is not the silver bullet most think it is
    Our starting point should be that Remain lost last time. The polls don't show much change, so I'd make leave the favourites this time round. I think there's a decent chance that referendum 2 would lead to hard Brexit or even no deal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,044
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

    Remain, or leave with no deal?

    I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

    The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.
    Explain the process by which 'leave with no deal' gets onto a referendum ballot paper.
    Okaaay...

    First of all you get some paper. Then you get some printer's ink. Then you put the two through a press and bingo! you have a ballot paper.
    How would a No Deal referendum be passed by Parliament?

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,593
    edited July 11

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    Threaten that if they don't give her the votes she needs, she'll have no option but to do a deal with LD+SNP+Remaniac-Lab, who will require a re-referendum as the price of their support.

    Please don't throw me into the briar patch etc etc.
    Knowing this, if May wants to look strong and in control she will preempt them and announce that she wants to put it to the people before they have chance to hold her to ransom.
    True, but I wonder if it isn't actually easier for the opposition members, especially Remainiac Lab, if it looks like they're forcing the concession. It's not generally a great look for opposition MPs to be saving the government, so they're better off with a setup of "Tory disunity let us extract this concession" rather than "The government wanted to do this, and we threw them a lifeline when they were drowning".
    Once May has announced it, I think the political pressure on Labour MPs to back it would be overwhelming. If Corbyn tried to block it to force a GE instead it would to seen to be such a cynical move it would destroy the Labour party.

    I also wonder if there isn't a loophole hidden in the Henry VIII powers to allow the government to bypass parliament on this.
    Re your last sentence - Do you want people rioting on the streets
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,296
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
    Why hypocritical?

    As a consumer you are making a choice

    It’s not like you are evangelising the use of Facebook while avoiding it yourself
    Charles, can I thank you for your recommendation of 'Bad Blood' - I finished reading it last night and it really was an excellent and detailed description of the Theranos scandal.

    What went on was almost unbelievable, as were the great and good who were taken in.
    Agreed

    There’s a lot of interesting themes for study. What’s impressive though is the number of juniors who tried to stop it and were fired / resigned because they thought it was unethical. That’s worth something at least
    Yes, they treated employees who dared question things exceptionally poorly.

    I'd also note the way they compartmentalised the company, so people working on the same project could not tell others on the project that they were doing. That's a recipe for disaster, and whilst it may sometimes be necessary because of externalities, was not in that case.

    But the worst was the semi-police state they created within the company. A massive security operation around technology that essentially did not exist, but impressed outsiders looking on.

    On the legal side, David Boies and Boies Schilller come out very poorly. The sort of people who give lawyers a bad name ...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,021
    "The gulf between the easy, prosperous, productive Brexit that its voters are impatiently expecting, and the grim, complicated cost of disentangling economies that have been intertwined for decades has poisoned and paralyzed British politics.

    The Conservatives’ leaders cannot admit to the electorate that they were deceived without splitting the party. And instead of apologizing for misleading voters, Mr. Johnson and the other Brexiteers have doubled down, taking refuge in optimistic slogans and vapid promises, refusing to believe the increasingly agitated evidence from hospitals, airlines, farmers, supermarkets and factories that a hard Brexit will damage them all.


    https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/opinion/boris-johnson-resignation-brexit.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,687
    edited July 11

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

    Remain, or leave with no deal?

    I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

    The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.
    Explain the process by which 'leave with no deal' gets onto a referendum ballot paper.
    Okaaay...

    First of all you get some paper. Then you get some printer's ink. Then you put the two through a press and bingo! you have a ballot paper.
    I meant the political process...
    Well, I don't know whether you noticed but a couple of years ago we had a referendum in which people voted to Leave. Parliament then also voted to leave.

    So we are leaving and the question is on what terms. That would be what a second referendum would be about, and why it would be as pointless and potentially damaging as trying to explain the mechanics of good teaching to an OFSTED inspector.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,001

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    Threaten that if they don't give her the votes she needs, she'll have no option but to do a deal with LD+SNP+Remaniac-Lab, who will require a re-referendum as the price of their support.

    Please don't throw me into the briar patch etc etc.
    Knowing this, if May wants to look strong and in control she will preempt them and announce that she wants to put it to the people before they have chance to hold her to ransom.
    True, but I wonder if it isn't actually easier for the opposition members, especially Remainiac Lab, if it looks like they're forcing the concession. It's not generally a great look for opposition MPs to be saving the government, so they're better off with a setup of "Tory disunity let us extract this concession" rather than "The government wanted to do this, and we threw them a lifeline when they were drowning".
    Once May has announced it, I think the political pressure on Labour MPs to back it would be overwhelming. If Corbyn tried to block it to force a GE instead it would to seen to be such a cynical move it would destroy the Labour party.

    I also wonder if there isn't a loophole hidden in the Henry VIII powers to allow the government to bypass parliament on this.
    Re your last senrtence - Do you want people rioting on the streets
    The country can't be held to ransom by people who would riot on the streets.

    The Brexit deal versus Remain is the right and responsible choice to put in a referendum. Two defined options, neither of which will cause the sky to fall in, and we can have a sober and fact-based debate to decide what our future course will be.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,836

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

    Remain, or leave with no deal?

    I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

    The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.
    Explain the process by which 'leave with no deal' gets onto a referendum ballot paper.
    Do you accept the deal or not?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,687
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

    Remain, or leave with no deal?

    I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

    The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.
    Explain the process by which 'leave with no deal' gets onto a referendum ballot paper.
    Okaaay...

    First of all you get some paper. Then you get some printer's ink. Then you put the two through a press and bingo! you have a ballot paper.
    How would a No Deal referendum be passed by Parliament?

    It already has been, in effect.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,593
    rkrkrk said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

    Remain, or leave with no deal?

    I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

    The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.
    If there is a second referendum (unlikely++!) it would be impossible to not have Remain as a choice.
    Agree but I am not at all sure that remain would win in this atmosphere and indeed it could be a narrow vote either way creating more chaos.

    Maybe a 'peoples vote' is not the silver bullet most think it is
    Our starting point should be that Remain lost last time. The polls don't show much change, so I'd make leave the favourites this time round. I think there's a decent chance that referendum 2 would lead to hard Brexit or even no deal.
    I think a hard Brexit and no deal are the same but yes, we could actually see a vote to leave, no matter how bad it is for us economically, just as a rebellion against the political class
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,230

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

    Remain, or leave with no deal?

    I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

    The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.
    Explain the process by which 'leave with no deal' gets onto a referendum ballot paper.
    Even if it does it wont win. There's a reason Brexiteers are terrified of a 2nd referendum.

    They have been found out by enough people to tip the balance next time. It'll still be close, but the other way.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,836
    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:




    Labour going to the country having blocked an attempt at soft Brexit and therefore forcing us to WTO, maugre the wishes of the overwhelming majority of their voters?

    It won't be Labour who blocked it, it will have been the ERG faction of the tories. Labour don't owe May any favours, pity or mercy and it's not up to them to deliver the government's program in the HoC.
    Hmmm.

    I am not sure their voters will quite see it that way.

    Or to put it another way, they will see Labour siding with the ERG to deliver a hard Brexit.

    Now that might suit Corbyn but I think there might be awkward conversations about it elsewhere with sane MPs and candidates.

    I also do think there will be a number of Labour MPs sufficiently alarmed at this situation to wave through a deal. There are two groups who will support it:

    1) Pragamatists. Their calculation will be otherwise the government splits, falls, they come in and the first thing they have to deal with is economic meltdown caused by no-deal for which they will get the blame.

    2) Principled. They will vote because they believe if we can't stay in the EU we must stay as close as possible.
    How many principled Labour MPs are there?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,748
    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    She will if Labour supports the deal
    If Labour get a sniff of bringing the government down or forcing a GE then they have to try.
    Labour going to the country having blocked an attempt at soft Brexit and therefore forcing us to WTO, maugre the wishes of the overwhelming majority of their voters?

    That would be - courageous.

    A smarter move would be to vote this through and let the government tear itself to pieces over something else over the next year. Wellington fell because of Catholic Emanciption, but it was another vote on a minor subject that he actually lost.

    Corbyn is not smart, as he is not principled or honest. But many of the PLP are and I think they will be wary of precipitating an election over blocking this.
    No they will go for the election. That is their raison d’etre.

    The details of what nuance of Brexit they did or didn’t help to bring about will be lost on 99.9% of voters.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,690
    edited July 11
    ydoethur said:


    Well, I don't know whether you noticed but a couple of years ago we had a referendum in which people voted to Leave. Parliament then also voted to leave.

    So we are leaving and the question is on what terms. That would be what a second referendum would be about, and why it would be as pointless and potentially damaging as trying to explain the mechanics of good teaching to an OFSTED inspector.

    We're talking about what it would take to get a vote through parliament, and that depends on what MPs think should happen, not what you think should happen.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,044

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
    Why hypocritical?

    As a consumer you are making a choice

    It’s not like you are evangelising the use of Facebook while avoiding it yourself
    Charles, can I thank you for your recommendation of 'Bad Blood' - I finished reading it last night and it really was an excellent and detailed description of the Theranos scandal.

    What went on was almost unbelievable, as were the great and good who were taken in.
    Agreed

    There’s a lot of interesting themes for study. What’s impressive though is the number of juniors who tried to stop it and were fired / resigned because they thought it was unethical. That’s worth something at least
    Yes, they treated employees who dared question things exceptionally poorly.

    I'd also note the way they compartmentalised the company, so people working on the same project could not tell others on the project that they were doing. That's a recipe for disaster, and whilst it may sometimes be necessary because of externalities, was not in that case.

    But the worst was the semi-police state they created within the company. A massive security operation around technology that essentially did not exist, but impressed outsiders looking on.

    On the legal side, David Boies and Boies Schilller come out very poorly. The sort of people who give lawyers a bad name ...
    Sounds like an Allegory for the May government.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,001
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

    Remain, or leave with no deal?

    I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

    The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.
    Explain the process by which 'leave with no deal' gets onto a referendum ballot paper.
    Do you accept the deal or not?

    May is no Tsipras.

    She also wants to eclipse David Cameron. If she goes for a referendum as I described, it would be the final act of a long process of cleaning up the political mess he left.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,230
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    Well yes, perhaps, though I've not read it as it is paywalled. Is there evidence of Davis and Boris acting in concert. let alone for this reason, or is it just surmise? Perhaps I must visit a newsagent.

    The article does not suggest they acted in concert, and is primarily focused on the actions of DD.

    The premise is that he likes to use to use a decision tree before acting, and that in order to achieve his desired goal, the tree would have to include decisions in the past that did not occur (like don't trigger Article 50 prematurely)

    In the old joke, if you want to get there you wouldn't start from here.

    So DD reasoned it was futile, and gave up. Boris just thought resigning was his next best career move.
    DD’s resignation could reasonably be described as principled, after the PM froze him out and went over his head on matters relating to his department’s brief.

    Boris, on the other hand, is as usual just looking out for Boris. I’d say any credibility he might have had left is now completely shot.
    Nick Watt on Newsnight said the latest thinking is that Boris will by-pass parliament and take his case to the country by going back into campaign mode.

    Bus tour?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,836

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Death constitutes a breach of PayPal's terms of service :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44783779

    Testing (and even thinking very hard) has rather gone out of fashion in the computer biz. Launch something that mostly works (minimum viable product) then fix it as the bug reports come in (or don't fix it because the team has moved on to something else). Move fast and break things, as Facebook used to say. Agile. There is no parallel with the government's approach to Brexit -- publish red lines then change them almost randomly as the EU rejects each one.

    Talking of Facebook, I see they face a £500,000 fine over the Cambridge Analytica data breaches, representing 18 minutes' profit.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/11/ico_fine_facebook_cambridge_analytica/
    The real damage to Facebook is reputational. I hardly use it now, and log out when not using so that it stops tracing. Hypocritical of course as I use Twitter, Google etc
    Why hypocritical?

    As a consumer you are making a choice

    It’s not like you are evangelising the use of Facebook while avoiding it yourself
    Charles, can I thank you for your recommendation of 'Bad Blood' - I finished reading it last night and it really was an excellent and detailed description of the Theranos scandal.

    What went on was almost unbelievable, as were the great and good who were taken in.
    Agreed

    There’s a lot of interesting themes for study. What’s impressive though is the number of juniors who tried to stop it and were fired / resigned because they thought it was unethical. That’s worth something at least
    Yes, they treated employees who dared question things exceptionally poorly.

    I'd also note the way they compartmentalised the company, so people working on the same project could not tell others on the project that they were doing. That's a recipe for disaster, and whilst it may sometimes be necessary because of externalities, was not in that case.

    But the worst was the semi-police state they created within the company. A massive security operation around technology that essentially did not exist, but impressed outsiders looking on.

    On the legal side, David Boies and Boies Schilller come out very poorly. The sort of people who give lawyers a bad name ...
    As an aside Boies has equity in the business. That’s banned in banking because of the conflict it creates between advisor and client
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,021
    edited July 11
    Scott_P said:

    The ERG has a cunning plan, we are told, to bring down the Prime Minister. I doubt it. No-one seems to have a plan for anything.

    I would have thought Remain's best chance is somewhere in the fallout of the events that would follow the Brexit extremists' bringing down of the PM right now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,593

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    Threaten that if they don't give her the votes she needs, she'll have no option but to do a deal with LD+SNP+Remaniac-Lab, who will require a re-referendum as the price of their support.

    Please don't throw me into the briar patch etc etc.
    Knowing this, if May wants to look strong and in control she will preempt them and announce that she wants to put it to the people before they have chance to hold her to ransom.
    True, but I wonder if it isn't actually easier for the opposition members, especially Remainiac Lab, if it looks like they're forcing the concession. It's not generally a great look for opposition MPs to be saving the government, so they're better off with a setup of "Tory disunity let us extract this concession" rather than "The government wanted to do this, and we threw them a lifeline when they were drowning".
    Once May has announced it, I think the political pressure on Labour MPs to back it would be overwhelming. If Corbyn tried to block it to force a GE instead it would to seen to be such a cynical move it would destroy the Labour party.

    I also wonder if there isn't a loophole hidden in the Henry VIII powers to allow the government to bypass parliament on this.
    Re your last senrtence - Do you want people rioting on the streets
    The country can't be held to ransom by people who would riot on the streets.

    The Brexit deal versus Remain is the right and responsible choice to put in a referendum. Two defined options, neither of which will cause the sky to fall in, and we can have a sober and fact-based debate to decide what our future course will be.
    The thought of passing something under archaic practices would not only see millions on the streets (me included) but the government would not survive and neither would remain. You have to be a real zealot to even think about it
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,044
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

    Remain, or leave with no deal?

    I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

    The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.
    Explain the process by which 'leave with no deal' gets onto a referendum ballot paper.
    Okaaay...

    First of all you get some paper. Then you get some printer's ink. Then you put the two through a press and bingo! you have a ballot paper.
    How would a No Deal referendum be passed by Parliament?

    It already has been, in effect.
    I agree that it is the default, but that is not the mooted Second Referendum.

    rkrkrk said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Glenn, but what would option two be?

    Remain, or leave with no deal?

    I think the hope is that it would be 'Remain.'

    The reality is it would be 'leave with no deal,' which is why I remain opposed to a second referendum.
    If there is a second referendum (unlikely++!) it would be impossible to not have Remain as a choice.
    Agree but I am not at all sure that remain would win in this atmosphere and indeed it could be a narrow vote either way creating more chaos.

    Maybe a 'peoples vote' is not the silver bullet most think it is
    Our starting point should be that Remain lost last time. The polls don't show much change, so I'd make leave the favourites this time round. I think there's a decent chance that referendum 2 would lead to hard Brexit or even no deal.
    I think a hard Brexit and no deal are the same but yes, we could actually see a vote to leave, no matter how bad it is for us economically, just as a rebellion against the political class
    We might also see a Remain vote driven by desire to kick a Government of Leavers. Referendums tend to get that reaction.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 2,775
    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Let’s assume we get to October on a river of Euro-fudge.

    How is May going to win a “meaningful” vote in the Commons? She doesn’t have the numbers if the ERGers are determined to be bloody minded.

    She will if Labour supports the deal
    If Labour get a sniff of bringing the government down or forcing a GE then they have to try.
    Labour going to the country having blocked an attempt at soft Brexit and therefore forcing us to WTO, maugre the wishes of the overwhelming majority of their voters?

    That would be - courageous.

    A smarter move would be to vote this through and let the government tear itself to pieces over something else over the next year. Wellington fell because of Catholic Emanciption, but it was another vote on a minor subject that he actually lost.

    Corbyn is not smart, as he is not principled or honest. But many of the PLP are and I think they will be wary of precipitating an election over blocking this.
    No they will go for the election. That is their raison d’etre.

    The details of what nuance of Brexit they did or didn’t help to bring about will be lost on 99.9% of voters.
    Agreed. It's looks the Tories and Iraq, "we weren't the government not our responsability"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,001

    Even if it does it wont win. There's a reason Brexiteers are terrified of a 2nd referendum.

    They have been found out by enough people to tip the balance next time. It'll still be close, but the other way.

    As we head to the endgame there will be essentially three possible options:

    - Revoke Article 50
    - Ratify the Withdrawal Agreement
    - No Deal

    Over the next three months, my assumption is that those trashing Chequers and arguing for No Deal will drive public opinion not towards the third option but towards the first.
This discussion has been closed.