Mr. Tokyo, a three option referendum would be... potentially terrible. If the 'winning' option has under 50%, as seems likely, it makes the mandate questionable at best. Plus, there are two leave options. If we stay in, it'll be argued, legitimately, that the ballot paper was designed to split the leave vote and unify the remain vote. If we go for the deal (the middle option) it could be argued that the ballot paper was designed to deliver to middle option as there's a bias, in odd-numbered multiple choice surveys, towards the middle (the not too hot, not too cold slant).
Agreed. The use of a two-stage referendum is not unknown (see the New Zealand 1993 referendum on voting systems). I'd recommend:
Question One: Do you wish to the UK to: Accept the Deal [_] Reject the Deal [_]
Question Two: If the Deal is rejected, would you prefer the UK to: Leave the European Union without a deal [_] Remain in the European Union [_]
Oh, where do we get to vote for what we already voted for - leaving the EU and negotiating a free trade agreement? Eg the thing that the Remainers running the Government refused to do?
Not at all, if we manage to get Chequers through (big if, I know) it is just about enough for everyone to get on with life. A few die hards might switch to UKIP on one side or the Lib Dems on the other, but we won't lose much to Labour, and in fact we'll be able to get a lot of the support we lost in 2017 back from them if Jez opposes this deal either from labour leavers who think he's trying to block brexit, or from Tory-remainers who think he's playing silly buggers.
Jeremy Hunt set to overtake Jacob Rees-Mogg in the next Con leader market on Betfair.
My legendary modesty etc.
Mogg trounced Hunt 60 40 in the latest Tory members poll so not based on much other than Javid and Gove and Boris and Hunt probably more likely to get MP support
It would confirm that the only type of Referendum that is deemed binding is one that delivers more Europe.
If euro membership had been passed in a referendum, Tony Blair would never have said, let's have another vote in two years' time.
Not true. If in a parallel universe remain had won, you can bet there would be pressure to have a second vote, or reverse the decision. That's what happens when you are split down the middle, and for all the joking about Schroedinger's Brexit, there's plenty of other physics laws you could bring into play: complementarity and symmetry for a start. We just happen to be in this universe...
I think it would have taken a very big breakthrough by UKIP to obtain that second vote, though.
Mr. Tokyo, a three option referendum would be... potentially terrible. If the 'winning' option has under 50%, as seems likely, it makes the mandate questionable at best. Plus, there are two leave options. If we stay in, it'll be argued, legitimately, that the ballot paper was designed to split the leave vote and unify the remain vote. If we go for the deal (the middle option) it could be argued that the ballot paper was designed to deliver to middle option as there's a bias, in odd-numbered multiple choice surveys, towards the middle (the not too hot, not too cold slant).
Agreed. The use of a two-stage referendum is not unknown (see the New Zealand 1993 referendum on voting systems). I'd recommend:
Question One: Do you wish to the UK to: Accept the Deal [_] Reject the Deal [_]
Question Two: If the Deal is rejected, would you prefer the UK to: Leave the European Union without a deal [_] Remain in the European Union [_]
Oh, where do we get to vote for what we already voted for - leaving the EU and negotiating a free trade agreement? Eg the thing that the Remainers running the Government refused to do?
I have only just learnt you live in Australia, ( a great country) but how is the 'we' get to vote going to apply to yourself and did you get a vote in the referendum
Not at all, if we manage to get Chequers through (big if, I know) it is just about enough for everyone to get on with life. A few die hards might switch to UKIP on one side or the Lib Dems on the other, but we won't lose much to Labour, and in fact we'll be able to get a lot of the support we lost in 2017 back from them if Jez opposes this deal either from labour leavers who think he's trying to block brexit, or from Tory-remainers who think he's playing silly buggers.
See off Corbyn and we're good until 2027.
Spectacularly optimistic! When was the last time any Party, let alone this one, was in government for 17 years?
Jeremy Hunt set to overtake Jacob Rees-Mogg in the next Con leader market on Betfair.
My legendary modesty etc.
His challenge will be to remain relevant. As Health Secretary he could be on the news any and every day if he wanted. As FS he can disappear somewhat. Boris didn't because he kept doing or saying really stupid things. Not an ideal model.
Ideally, from his point of view, May will involve him in the Brexit deal negotiations.
I reckon Hunt's star might just improve if Javid gets bogged down with events at the Home Office.
Plus I'm quite confident in saying Hunt will be an improvement on Johnson at the Foreign Office.
Jeremy Hunt set to overtake Jacob Rees-Mogg in the next Con leader market on Betfair.
My legendary modesty etc.
His challenge will be to remain relevant. As Health Secretary he could be on the news any and every day if he wanted. As FS he can disappear somewhat. Boris didn't because he kept doing or saying really stupid things. Not an ideal model.
Ideally, from his point of view, May will involve him in the Brexit deal negotiations.
I reckon Hunt's star might just improve if Javid gets bogged down with events at the Home Office.
Plus I'm quite confident in saying Hunt will be an improvement on Johnson at the Foreign Office.
A tailors dummy would improve on Johnson to be fair
Mr. Tokyo, a three option referendum would be... potentially terrible. If the 'winning' option has under 50%, as seems likely, it makes the mandate questionable at best. Plus, there are two leave options. If we stay in, it'll be argued, legitimately, that the ballot paper was designed to split the leave vote and unify the remain vote. If we go for the deal (the middle option) it could be argued that the ballot paper was designed to deliver to middle option as there's a bias, in odd-numbered multiple choice surveys, towards the middle (the not too hot, not too cold slant).
Agreed. The use of a two-stage referendum is not unknown (see the New Zealand 1993 referendum on voting systems). I'd recommend:
Question One: Do you wish to the UK to: Accept the Deal [_] Reject the Deal [_]
Question Two: If the Deal is rejected, would you prefer the UK to: Leave the European Union without a deal [_] Remain in the European Union [_]
Oh, where do we get to vote for what we already voted for - leaving the EU and negotiating a free trade agreement? Eg the thing that the Remainers running the Government refused to do?
The question asked in the Referendum was:
"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"
Jeremy Hunt set to overtake Jacob Rees-Mogg in the next Con leader market on Betfair.
My legendary modesty etc.
His challenge will be to remain relevant. As Health Secretary he could be on the news any and every day if he wanted. As FS he can disappear somewhat. Boris didn't because he kept doing or saying really stupid things. Not an ideal model.
Ideally, from his point of view, May will involve him in the Brexit deal negotiations.
Yes in some ways it's a tricky one to mount a leadership campaign from. Some potential wins - if he can get the British/Iranian lady released? If he can maintain the nuclear pact with Iran? If he can stand up to Trump a bit and get some good headlines on that?
Jeremy Hunt set to overtake Jacob Rees-Mogg in the next Con leader market on Betfair.
My legendary modesty etc.
Mogg trounced Hunt 60 40 in the latest Tory members poll so not based on much other than Javid and Gove and Boris and Hunt probably more likely to get MP support
Question to Tory party insiders in general. If Hammond has played such a blinder in getting BINO through to Chequers and routing the Hard Brexiters, why is he not higher in the ratings for next leader?
Jeremy Hunt set to overtake Jacob Rees-Mogg in the next Con leader market on Betfair.
My legendary modesty etc.
Mogg trounced Hunt 60 40 in the latest Tory members poll so not based on much other than Javid and Gove and Boris and Hunt probably more likely to get MP support
Question to Tory party insiders in general. If Hammond has played such a blinder in getting BINO through to Chequers and routing the Hard Brexiters, why is he not higher in the ratings for next leader?
The only blinder (and it is a big one) that Hammond has played is keeping his job.
Jeremy Hunt set to overtake Jacob Rees-Mogg in the next Con leader market on Betfair.
My legendary modesty etc.
Mogg trounced Hunt 60 40 in the latest Tory members poll so not based on much other than Javid and Gove and Boris and Hunt probably more likely to get MP support
Question to Tory party insiders in general. If Hammond has played such a blinder in getting BINO through to Chequers and routing the Hard Brexiters, why is he not higher in the ratings for next leader?
Jeremy Hunt set to overtake Jacob Rees-Mogg in the next Con leader market on Betfair.
My legendary modesty etc.
His challenge will be to remain relevant. As Health Secretary he could be on the news any and every day if he wanted. As FS he can disappear somewhat. Boris didn't because he kept doing or saying really stupid things. Not an ideal model.
Ideally, from his point of view, May will involve him in the Brexit deal negotiations.
I reckon Hunt's star might just improve if Javid gets bogged down with events at the Home Office.
Plus I'm quite confident in saying Hunt will be an improvement on Johnson at the Foreign Office.
Talk about low bars. Of that there is no doubt. Getting that Iranian convict home would be a good start, as would persuading the French to speak to us again.
So far Javid has been remarkably deft. But that department can screw up pretty much anybody.
@stodge I've backed England to win in 90 minutes. Both sides have defensive weaknesses and England look better up front.
btw Alastair where in the country are you moving to? And did you decide upon a car?
I have a house just outside Colchester. We're still considering what car to get. However, my head is being melted with discussions about paint colours first. I can't even say "terracotta" because one of the rooms which we're looking to redecorate is currently painted terracotta.
If you don't mind me asking, do you have a good-sized garden? I find a garden is wonderful to relax in, after work.
Of course I don't mind you asking.
Garden size was a key element of our search criteria - we didn't want either too big or too small. We've ended up with a garden that's about 80 foot long and is well laid out, if a bit overgrown. As you say, it's a great place to relax in.
Jeremy Hunt set to overtake Jacob Rees-Mogg in the next Con leader market on Betfair.
My legendary modesty etc.
Mogg trounced Hunt 60 40 in the latest Tory members poll so not based on much other than Javid and Gove and Boris and Hunt probably more likely to get MP support
Question to Tory party insiders in general. If Hammond has played such a blinder in getting BINO through to Chequers and routing the Hard Brexiters, why is he not higher in the ratings for next leader?
Mr. Tokyo, a three option referendum would be... potentially terrible. If the 'winning' option has under 50%, as seems likely, it makes the mandate questionable at best. Plus, there are two leave options. If we stay in, it'll be argued, legitimately, that the ballot paper was designed to split the leave vote and unify the remain vote. If we go for the deal (the middle option) it could be argued that the ballot paper was designed to deliver to middle option as there's a bias, in odd-numbered multiple choice surveys, towards the middle (the not too hot, not too cold slant).
Agreed. The use of a two-stage referendum is not unknown (see the New Zealand 1993 referendum on voting systems). I'd recommend:
Question One: Do you wish to the UK to: Accept the Deal [_] Reject the Deal [_]
Question Two: If the Deal is rejected, would you prefer the UK to: Leave the European Union without a deal [_] Remain in the European Union [_]
Oh, where do we get to vote for what we already voted for - leaving the EU and negotiating a free trade agreement? Eg the thing that the Remainers running the Government refused to do?
You didn't vote for that. You voted for the UK either to leave the EU or remain in the EU. That's all. What your personal motivations and preferences are your own business but they're not binding on the government, never mind the EU.
Not at all, if we manage to get Chequers through (big if, I know) it is just about enough for everyone to get on with life. A few die hards might switch to UKIP on one side or the Lib Dems on the other, but we won't lose much to Labour, and in fact we'll be able to get a lot of the support we lost in 2017 back from them if Jez opposes this deal either from labour leavers who think he's trying to block brexit, or from Tory-remainers who think he's playing silly buggers.
Unspoofable. As soon as Corbyn shuffles off the tories are going to get roughly fucked in every hole. And the electorate will be going in dry.
Jeremy Hunt set to overtake Jacob Rees-Mogg in the next Con leader market on Betfair.
My legendary modesty etc.
Mogg trounced Hunt 60 40 in the latest Tory members poll so not based on much other than Javid and Gove and Boris and Hunt probably more likely to get MP support
Question to Tory party insiders in general. If Hammond has played such a blinder in getting BINO through to Chequers and routing the Hard Brexiters, why is he not higher in the ratings for next leader?
He is just plain boring
Boring and competent would be good at the moment.
Well, as the song almost said, one out of two ain't bad.
Jeremy Hunt set to overtake Jacob Rees-Mogg in the next Con leader market on Betfair.
My legendary modesty etc.
Mogg trounced Hunt 60 40 in the latest Tory members poll so not based on much other than Javid and Gove and Boris and Hunt probably more likely to get MP support
Question to Tory party insiders in general. If Hammond has played such a blinder in getting BINO through to Chequers and routing the Hard Brexiters, why is he not higher in the ratings for next leader?
Because he's Theresa May in a tie. The presumption must be that if the Party wants shut of May then it's not going to replace her with someone almost identical, right down to the lack of political/electoral instincts.
Plus I'm quite confident in saying Hunt will be an improvement on Johnson at the Foreign Office.
Jeremy Hunt in clearing the world's lowest bar shocker.
Maybe he can persuade the powers that be to get the next World Cup here in the UK instead of Qatar? Hopefully he can do so without instigating a Middle Eastern war...
Last year's list sparked an outcry about gender and ethnic inequality because the top of the list was dominated by white men and because some men were shown to have been paid more than female co-hosts.
Last year, the top seven were all men - this time, it's the top 12.
Mr. Tokyo, a three option referendum would be... potentially terrible. If the 'winning' option has under 50%, as seems likely, it makes the mandate questionable at best. Plus, there are two leave options. If we stay in, it'll be argued, legitimately, that the ballot paper was designed to split the leave vote and unify the remain vote. If we go for the deal (the middle option) it could be argued that the ballot paper was designed to deliver to middle option as there's a bias, in odd-numbered multiple choice surveys, towards the middle (the not too hot, not too cold slant).
Agreed. The use of a two-stage referendum is not unknown (see the New Zealand 1993 referendum on voting systems). I'd recommend:
Question One: Do you wish to the UK to: Accept the Deal [_] Reject the Deal [_]
Question Two: If the Deal is rejected, would you prefer the UK to: Leave the European Union without a deal [_] Remain in the European Union [_]
Oh, where do we get to vote for what we already voted for - leaving the EU and negotiating a free trade agreement? Eg the thing that the Remainers running the Government refused to do?
You didn't vote for that. You voted for the UK either to leave the EU or remain in the EU. That's all. What your personal motivations and preferences are your own business but they're not binding on the government, never mind the EU.
The Referendum wasn`t binding on anybody. Mrs May decided that it was, and then decided it meant what she wanted it to mean - a May dictatorship. Live with it, you Leaver losers.
Mr. Tokyo, a three option referendum would be... potentially terrible. If the 'winning' option has under 50%, as seems likely, it makes the mandate questionable at best. Plus, there are two leave options. If we stay in, it'll be argued, legitimately, that the ballot paper was designed to split the leave vote and unify the remain vote. If we go for the deal (the middle option) it could be argued that the ballot paper was designed to deliver to middle option as there's a bias, in odd-numbered multiple choice surveys, towards the middle (the not too hot, not too cold slant).
Agreed. The use of a two-stage referendum is not unknown (see the New Zealand 1993 referendum on voting systems). I'd recommend:
Question One: Do you wish to the UK to: Accept the Deal [_] Reject the Deal [_]
Question Two: If the Deal is rejected, would you prefer the UK to: Leave the European Union without a deal [_] Remain in the European Union [_]
Oh, where do we get to vote for what we already voted for - leaving the EU and negotiating a free trade agreement? Eg the thing that the Remainers running the Government refused to do?
You didn't vote for that. You voted for the UK either to leave the EU or remain in the EU. That's all. What your personal motivations and preferences are your own business but they're not binding on the government, never mind the EU.
Just a point - did archer101 even vote as he seems to be domiciled in Australia - I have asked the question but not had a reply yet
@stodge I've backed England to win in 90 minutes. Both sides have defensive weaknesses and England look better up front.
btw Alastair where in the country are you moving to? And did you decide upon a car?
I have a house just outside Colchester. We're still considering what car to get. However, my head is being melted with discussions about paint colours first. I can't even say "terracotta" because one of the rooms which we're looking to redecorate is currently painted terracotta.
If you don't mind me asking, do you have a good-sized garden? I find a garden is wonderful to relax in, after work.
Of course I don't mind you asking.
Garden size was a key element of our search criteria - we didn't want either too big or too small. We've ended up with a garden that's about 80 foot long and is well laid out, if a bit overgrown. As you say, it's a great place to relax in.
I note our sand coloured Tomcat is well camouflaged by the grass now.
There will be a deal. It may though have to wait until a few weeks or months after we have left without one. At that point there will be a realisation in the UK that WTO terms are not that bad and can be lived with in the interim until a mutually beneficial deal is done, with the UK negotiating from a new found position of strength. Meanwhile the German exporters will be beating down the doors in Brussels.
Mr. Tokyo, a three option referendum would be... potentially terrible. If the 'winning' option has under 50%, as seems likely, it makes the mandate questionable at best. Plus, there are two leave options. If we stay in, it'll be argued, legitimately, that the ballot paper was designed to split the leave vote and unify the remain vote. If we go for the deal (the middle option) it could be argued that the ballot paper was designed to deliver to middle option as there's a bias, in odd-numbered multiple choice surveys, towards the middle (the not too hot, not too cold slant).
Agreed. The use of a two-stage referendum is not unknown (see the New Zealand 1993 referendum on voting systems). I'd recommend:
Question One: Do you wish to the UK to: Accept the Deal [_] Reject the Deal [_]
Question Two: If the Deal is rejected, would you prefer the UK to: Leave the European Union without a deal [_] Remain in the European Union [_]
Oh, where do we get to vote for what we already voted for - leaving the EU and negotiating a free trade agreement? Eg the thing that the Remainers running the Government refused to do?
You didn't vote for that. You voted for the UK either to leave the EU or remain in the EU. That's all. What your personal motivations and preferences are your own business but they're not binding on the government, never mind the EU.
The Referendum wasn`t binding on anybody. Mrs May decided that it was, and then decided it meant what she wanted it to mean - a May dictatorship. Live with it, you Leaver losers.
That is just plainly absurd. When did the government ever tell the people it was just advisory
Not at all, if we manage to get Chequers through (big if, I know) it is just about enough for everyone to get on with life. A few die hards might switch to UKIP on one side or the Lib Dems on the other, but we won't lose much to Labour, and in fact we'll be able to get a lot of the support we lost in 2017 back from them if Jez opposes this deal either from labour leavers who think he's trying to block brexit, or from Tory-remainers who think he's playing silly buggers.
Unspoofable. As soon as Corbyn shuffles off the tories are going to get roughly fucked in every hole. And the electorate will be going in dry.
Mr. Tokyo, a three option referendum would be... potentially terrible. If the 'winning' option has under 50%, as seems likely, it makes the mandate questionable at best. Plus, there are two leave options. If we stay in, it'll be argued, legitimately, that the ballot paper was designed to split the leave vote and unify the remain vote. If we go for the deal (the middle option) it could be argued that the ballot paper was designed to deliver to middle option as there's a bias, in odd-numbered multiple choice surveys, towards the middle (the not too hot, not too cold slant).
Agreed. The use of a two-stage referendum is not unknown (see the New Zealand 1993 referendum on voting systems). I'd recommend:
Question One: Do you wish to the UK to: Accept the Deal [_] Reject the Deal [_]
Question Two: If the Deal is rejected, would you prefer the UK to: Leave the European Union without a deal [_] Remain in the European Union [_]
Oh, where do we get to vote for what we already voted for - leaving the EU and negotiating a free trade agreement? Eg the thing that the Remainers running the Government refused to do?
We voted to leave the EU. That's all. The Leave campaign very cleverly left the destination open (Cummings mentioned it was deliberately done) and many people voted for many reasons. Some for sovereignty in domestic affairs, some against ever-closer union, some for more money for the NHS without tax increases or spending cuts, some against immigration, some for trade deals, and so on. Those in Government do seem to have tried to balance the various camps (while looking terrified at losing support all round). Given that three prominent Leavers (Davis, Fox, Johnson) were key players, saying "it's all because of those rotten Remainers preventing everything" seems a bit more like blamestorming than brainstorming.
We are where we are. There's only time for one deal - if that. We take it or leave it.
(Personally, I reckon the Leavers should have cashed in the exit instantly into the EEA and then moved from there. No Remain option left. We could, after all, have exited into the EEA promptly as an off-the-peg deal, and not had to wait for A50 to expire. It's a limit, not a necessary time requirement. Then, from there, invoke Article 112 to put a limited brake on some FOM due to economic (house prices) and political (referendum) pressures - should be able to keep arguing it for ages. Set up any WTO necessities from there if there's pressure to go further (without an A50 deadline, which also gives power to the EU negotiation side), otherwise job done)
There will be a deal. It may though have to wait until a few weeks or months after we have left without one. At that point there will be a realisation in the UK that WTO terms are not that bad and can be lived with in the interim until a mutually beneficial deal is done, with the UK negotiating from a new found position of strength. Meanwhile the German exporters will be beating down the doors in Brussels.
You want to play Russian roulette with my son in law and over 40,000 Airbus workers - I do not and neither do they
Comments
See off Corbyn and we're good until 2027.
We'll end up with a yearly referendum on EU membership.
When was the last time any Party, let alone this one, was in government for 17 years?
Plus I'm quite confident in saying Hunt will be an improvement on Johnson at the Foreign Office.
"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"
That's ALL it said!
Some potential wins - if he can get the British/Iranian lady released? If he can maintain the nuclear pact with Iran? If he can stand up to Trump a bit and get some good headlines on that?
So far Javid has been remarkably deft. But that department can screw up pretty much anybody.
Garden size was a key element of our search criteria - we didn't want either too big or too small. We've ended up with a garden that's about 80 foot long and is well laid out, if a bit overgrown. As you say, it's a great place to relax in.
Last year's list sparked an outcry about gender and ethnic inequality because the top of the list was dominated by white men and because some men were shown to have been paid more than female co-hosts.
Last year, the top seven were all men - this time, it's the top 12.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-44779292
NEW THREAD
Leaving without one, even for a day, is a betrayal of the vote...
The Leave campaign very cleverly left the destination open (Cummings mentioned it was deliberately done) and many people voted for many reasons. Some for sovereignty in domestic affairs, some against ever-closer union, some for more money for the NHS without tax increases or spending cuts, some against immigration, some for trade deals, and so on. Those in Government do seem to have tried to balance the various camps (while looking terrified at losing support all round). Given that three prominent Leavers (Davis, Fox, Johnson) were key players, saying "it's all because of those rotten Remainers preventing everything" seems a bit more like blamestorming than brainstorming.
We are where we are. There's only time for one deal - if that. We take it or leave it.
(Personally, I reckon the Leavers should have cashed in the exit instantly into the EEA and then moved from there. No Remain option left. We could, after all, have exited into the EEA promptly as an off-the-peg deal, and not had to wait for A50 to expire. It's a limit, not a necessary time requirement. Then, from there, invoke Article 112 to put a limited brake on some FOM due to economic (house prices) and political (referendum) pressures - should be able to keep arguing it for ages. Set up any WTO necessities from there if there's pressure to go further (without an A50 deadline, which also gives power to the EU negotiation side), otherwise job done)