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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is a Tory leadership election, it could go turbo

Theresa May has had a surprisingly good week. For one thing, she’s still prime minister. This is, admittedly, setting the bar quite low but it was nothing like a foregone conclusion that she’d still be safe in post today, this time last week. Instead, she’s being praised for handling Trump’s visit with tact and dignity despite his provocations. That comes on top of the government having finally developed and published a detailed Brexit policy – with what might in retrospect come to be seen as the added bonus of the resignations of two underperforming awkward squad members – and no particularly negative response from Brussels.

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MarqueeMark

"the most dangerous times for her were immediately after the Chequers meeting, after Boris’ resignation, and after the (botched) publication of the White Paper"

I'd argue the most dangerous time for her is when the EU gves its response to the White Paper. If she can deliver it, she's fine. If they say "non"/want bigger concessions, then the letters pour in.