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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big post-Helsinki polling question is will Trump’s ratings
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big post-Helsinki polling question is will Trump’s ratings recovery be hit?
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https://twitter.com/JohnMannMP/status/1019119049127747584
It is the impact on Independents and Trump sceptical Republicans which matters.
I remain to be contradicted, but I can't see his fawning and deeply suspicious performance yesterday gaining any new admirers.
The polling suggests Russia is considerably less popular than the EU and NATO.
The "We were always at war with Eastasia" crowd will love it of course.
https://twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19
It needs to see the process through to either a bitter and painful end, or a muddled messy compromise which pleases nobody.
It has thoroughly earned the right to continue.
I predict Lab & Tories will be tied.
A YouGov poll for The Times puts Labour on 41 per cent, up two points from last week, with the Tories on 36 per cent, down one point.
The Lib Dems are on 9 per cent, down one point and Ukip on 7 per cent, up one point.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0114f3e2-8a04-11e8-a0fd-e428ecc3ac12
Or is it majority cars, to suit Germany?
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
Does anyone have any idea what happens next?
I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people
As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
Is this what Tories want to be known for?
Independents though may, which might also have influenced Trump's walk back on his earlier comments in Helsinki today
So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
A full 2/3 of Leavers simply want to crash out into some form of North Korean autarchy.
What a pack of fucking nut cakes. And yet they seem to have control of the steering wheel.
See where we are in the Autumn and the state of play. I expect TM to get a deal now and a transitition and hopefully the Country can breathe a sigh of relief
Why would a smaller nation do a deal with the EU when it means we will not take your agriculture but Germany is going to muller you.
The future of free trade is between medium and smaller countries that believe in free trade.
On topic. Trump is correcting his misspoking?
“When I said the whores in the hotel were very good, it was the halls I was speaking about. Very, very... very fine halls.”
The Tories’ best chance to win the next election is to accept and embrace being the Party of Brexit.
The public doesn’t want a second referendum, but appears likely to vote Remain if there is one. That’s a real conundrum for Remainers - would a 5 point lead be enough when the hue and cry of betrayal is in full flow?
Labour’s current strategy is perfect. A second referendum would however require a totally new strategy.
The Customs Union vote was won by 3 votes, not 40.
You're heading for a crushing loss in a second referendum of far more than 5 points.
Con 37.2%
Lab 40.2%
LD 9.8%
UKIP 6.4%"
Green 3.0"
Which Baxterised equals
Lab 295
Con 272
SNP 42
LD 19
NI 18
PC 3
Grn 1
" UKIP and Green no separate figures on Survation polls.
But unless UKIP gets its branches back into shape, I don't see how they can take much advantage of their new popularity. So I'd say despite appearances the stalemate between the two big parties in the popular vote is probably still holding.
When was Davis ever asked why negotiations were not concluded as easily as he promised?
When has Boris been asked where the Brexit dividend is given that official government statistics show that Brexit is already costing us millions in lost growth?
When has Fox ever been asked why he has failed to make any progress at all, while the EU pursues trade agreements with Canada and Japan?
When has May been asked whether triggering A50 without a coherent plan made any sense whatsoever?
They have all been given very easy rides, and Remainer media such as Faisal has focused too much on being scandalised by the latest government collapse and not enough on holding to account.
For everything else, the UK is better off trying to retain as much as possible of the deals it already had through the EU.
EDIT: See Ian B2 has asked the very same....
@EuropeElects
4h4 hours ago
Germany, Allensbach poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 31% (-2)
SPD-S&D: 20% (-1)
AfD-EFDD: 15% (+2)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 12% (+1)
LINKE-LEFT: 9% (-1)
FDP-ALDE: 9% (-1)
Field work: 01/07/18 – 12/07/18
Sample size: 1,295"
3.57%,
When it is just us and them we get 100% of what we want because the only input is ours. It does not mean the other side capitulates, it just means there in no compromise in our position because we have so called allies on our side.
https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1019199921713483776?s=19
The problem is they just can't agree on what type of Brexit and I think the general public (hence why there seems to be some increasing support for Remain/talk of another referendum) is noticing that and they don't like all this bickering and uncertainty.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/17/trump-putin-criticism-reaction-725975
Had he brazened it out, he might just have got away with it...
Night all.
Not fit for purpose.
They can’t even be bothered to turn out on Brexit.
https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1019207220657938432?s=19
https://www.tralac.org/discussions/article/12282-south-african-citrus-exports-under-the-sadc-eu-epa.html
"Between 1 June and 15 October South African sweet oranges enter the EU market duty free"
When you know what you are talking about.