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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: The week the polls turned, B
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: The week the polls turned, Boris makes a speech and why Theresa May is a modern day Mr Burns
This week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts.
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Wikipedia suggests;
"The Irish Air Corps lacks a dedicated air intercept capability, and previous air incursions have seen the Royal Air Force respond to and escort unwelcome aircraft out of Irish controlled airspace."
I suspect these ideas won't make it to the Taoiseach's top ideas list.
Today we have seen Cliff Richard receive justice and the BBC publically shamed, the young Thai footballers enthralling everyone in their first public appearance, a confident TM demonstrating Corbyn hasn't a clue, the 1922 committee endorsing her and a Brexiteer withdrawing his letter, a mediocre Boris moment, but best of all a collective breakdown by Sky presenters, including Adam Boulton, who eagerly looked forward to May's terrible day that did not happen
I assumed money had changed hands. When I watch real-life police programmes, they blur out the faces even when we can see clear evidence of wrong-doing taking place. To see a well-known person's house was a bit of a shock. I assumed the evidence was damning.
The BBC will cough up, the tax-payer will foot the bill, and the guilty parties, those who authorised this imbecilic waste of money, will take a fat bonus. Why aren't they being named?
"Turd."
I think that's a bit harsh on Mr Varadkar. Ill-advised and silly, perhaps.
I imagine if those voters were fully aware of the possible implications of No Deal ("Why can't we just trade with Europe like we trade with other countries?") they wouldn't be so up for it in practice - but then again, there is a big difference between "Orderly No Deal" and "Chaotic No Deal" and while I wouldn't want to put too much faith in this administration's contingency planning to ensure the former, it may be that others have more trust for the civil service and government than I do.
The next soft signal to look for is either Junks or Tusk flying to Ireland, putting an arm round Varadkers shoulder and saying "do not worry we have got your back." Then looking away and sniggering.
Be careful, those laser pens can do a bit of damage.
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/legislation/brexit-notice-to-stakeholders-air-transport.pdf
Air carriers of the United Kingdom will no longer enjoy traffic rights under any air transport agreement to which the Union is a party, be it to or from the territory of the United Kingdom, be it to or from the territory of any of the EU Member States
Ryanair would be no loss anyway. I'm warming to the loon already.
No such comparison was made by me.
A small step back, and observing the odder moments in all this is quite amusing. The odd flight of fancy too. In fact I hadn't previously known how little Ireland spend on defence until I checked wikipedia about the Irish air force - so these things can be educational too.
I've long thought (always really) that for Brexit we'll finish up with a mess delivered by the politicians, but time and experience will deliver something clearer and better over time.
Only in the imagination of Uber-Remainers would a celebration of British patriotism that didn’t mention Nazi Germany or the EU be a comment on either.
How does this help your cause? Are you trying to frighten us into loving the EU? Because it’s not going to work.
It’s this kind of utter crap that undermines some of the better points Remainers make.
More generally it is a good idea to fly to the US from Ireland as you preclear US customs and immigration in Dublin and Shannon which smooths your arrival greatly stateside especially if you have a connecting flight.
I have no time for Anti-Semitism at all and seriously doubt that the issue would have arisen in our own politics were we still looking at the Israel of David BenGurion - Golda Meier - Levi Eschcoll or indeed Simon Peres. The shift to the extreme Right as evidenced by the oppressive policies of Netanyahu's Likud and its adoption of quasi-Apartheid policies has inevitably stirred humanitarian concerns for the plight of the Palestinian minority and created a breeding ground for Hamas and other groups.To be strongly opposed to the present Israeli Government should not be construed as Anti-Semitism - yet many appear to fail to see the difference.
Justin's argument is pretty nonsensical and divorced from fact. Netanyahu's policies are dreadful and have added fuel to the fire, but he didn't create a 'breeding ground' for Hamas. They were elected in 2006 shortly after Sharon's national government withdrew from Gaza and kicked out a bunch of settlers. Israel then refused to negotiate with Hamas who were and are still a group that failed to renounce their call for Israel to be wiped out or violent attacks, and we've then seen ever more intransigent right-wing governments since, as more Israelis have come to see a negotiated peace as implausible and focused on security. That's largely why you've got all these oppressively stringent security measures and blockades - because it's the only way the Israeli government thinks it can stop Hamas carrying out attacks at will, given their history and expertise in suicide attacks.
So, if anything, it's been the other way round - Israeli politics has shifted right in response to greater militancy from the Palestinians (or more to the point, from the state that funds and directs Hamas and doesn't want peace).
Quite a massive deal to drive trucks to the EU from Ireland, without going through the UK, though...
"I woke up to hear Ms Soubry on the radio."
What's the old phrase ... "You can almost hear the flapping of white coats"? I suppose the current phrase is 'mental health issues."
Or is it being the MP for Broxstowe? Yet Dr P seems safe enough to be allowed to walk around in public.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44642303
I will not prepare for hard border the EU have got our back.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/brexit-1-000-new-customs-and-veterinary-inspectors-to-be-hired-1.3569403
Varadakar announces 1,000 new customs officials as he is told to prepare for hard border by the EU who can not find his back now.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5968069/Margaret-Hodge-defends-attacking-Jeremy-Corbyn-emotional-article.html
If I wanted to be cruel I could list all their comments from Alastair did a fantastically well researched piece on how difficult it was to do trade deals and they said it would be easy.
Britain not exactly blessed with inspiring leadership at the moment, but Varadkar is perfect demonstration that things could be worse.
A large Indian man said, “don’t worry lads, we’re Indians.”
Indians, Brits and all found this very funny. It was racist, I suppose, but it highlighted where we have a problem. And it is not with Indian immigrants. They love their cricket, they love their beer and they know how to have a good time in the same way we do, even if they fail the Tebbit test spectacularly.
About the only difference I noted was by the time Root got his 100 they had all left. They don’t like to watch their team lose. But not for the first time I greatly enjoyed their company.
Do they really think that threatening to treat the UK like North Korea is going to make us love them or want to pay them a penny? If they actually try and ground planes European business is going to go ballistic at Junker and Barnier.
(unless you were being satiric, in which case apols)
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/life/travel/first-direct-ferry-crossing-from-ireland-to-spain-launches-this-year-36493932.html
Ireland is the only EU country with as much to lose as the UK in the event of 'No Deal', so it's in Vardarkar's interests to talk up the consequences now, to manage expectations and look tough at home with the added bonus of possibly shoving the UK agenda a bit more to the consequences (which although not as drastic, would be considerable).
Yes, the US immigration at Shannon is a brilliant idea, we should be encouraging Trump to let us do the same at Heathrow.
Link 1
However, he said there were contingency plans for Irish airports and seaports in event of a no deal Brexit.
Link 2
At the meeting, Ministers agreed to hire 700 additional customs officials to be deployed at ports and airports, and 300 extra staff to carry out checks on agricultural produce and animals travelling between Ireland and the UK after Brexit.
They are activating the contingency plans.
Some interesting pieces from Haaretz:
This year marks the 25th anniversary of a mass immigration wave that would ultimately bring more than one million immigrants to Israel from the former Soviet Union. Its impact on Israeli society has been nothing short of profound. - a key read
The Russians Are Coming! One out of every four combat soldiers is a new immigrant, and they are changing the face of the IDF. (from 2002)
One in Six Soviet Children Who Moved to Israel in the Early 1990s Have Since Left
Why Members of the 'Putin Aliyah' Are Abandoning Israel - particularly interesting albeit mostly anecdotal; the early wave of post-Cold War Russian Jewish migrants, who tended to be conservative, more strongly Jewish-identifying and found work - and tasted combat - in the IDF, didn't get on well with the later wave of migration of liberal professionals of Jewish descent who didn't enjoy Putin's authoritarianism and saw their ancestry as a means of getting a passport to a more "Western" state.
Many Remainers are sort of hung-up in varying degrees on the referendum. I think Greening suggested a three-way vote on (Brexit1, Brexit2, Remain) the other day. Now if you believe in referenda then you shouldn't have a Remain clause really.
Absolutely all Remainers though are worth listening to. The conflicts that have caused them concern are really there.
Brexit is a starting point for a life outside the EU, but quite where we find ourselves in the spectrum of what that might mean is entirely open to debate. The politics of the next twenty years will be substantially shaped by this.
Then he says they have contingency plans. My whole point. The second link is to just proof he has put them in action.
A Varadkar - Saying you will not do something in one sentence and then immediately contradicting it in the next.
Anyone amazed that apart from Liverpool there's not much transfer business going on?
It might be a hectic few weeks.
Who will be the new Karel Poborsky?
https://twitter.com/hughrbennett/status/1019658719242670081?s=21
To take an unrelated example, Vote Leave have just been referred to the police by the Electoral Commission. If this were hypothetically to widen to include, say, Michael Gove, do we really want the law to prevent that fact from being reported?
Gives us all a good laugh.
For what it's worth much of the virulent anti-Muslim, anti-Pakistani rants I've ever been subjected to - both against those living in Pakistan itself and those living over here - have come from (otherwise generally very liberal, westernised, "integrated") British Indians.
Every time I feel despair at the idiotic behaviour of the British government, along comes some EU person to remind me how equally obtuse the EU is being.
It’s not hard to understand: Britain has voted to leave the EU. Depending on your point of view this is either a good or bad thing or, more likely, a bit of both. It makes sense for both us and the EU to have some new arrangement for matters of mutual interest in place. With goodwill this can - eventually - be achieved. Britain needs to be realistic. But the EU needs to stop behaving as if Britain is - or should be treated as - some sort of pariah state which deserves to be punished for not liking the EU.
Does the EU really think that putting Britain under some sort of blockade with no-one able to get in or out of the country is in the EU’s interests?
See if that psns out
With Brexit we could become a 'lawless' country within a few months as we've not prepped for undoing 40 odd years of trading relationship and laws.
You'll probably 'appreciate' the analogy to Brexit I was given yesterday in Frankfurt.
Brexit is like Nick Leeson, the first mistake was survivable, in doubling down we've made the mistake even worse.
UK as Barings was not an analogy that cheered me up.
I wouldn't get too hung up on Varadkar's claims - I would happily remortgage my house to bet on him being wrong even in the event of the hardest of hard Brexits.
* As in the Articles of Association require you to be an EU country to be a shareholder. If the EIB sent us €1.6bn and told us "thanks!", it's hard to see what we could do about it.
It always makes me laugh when opponents of Liverpool mention Carroll. Carroll was part of an excellent set of deals. He was purchased along with a rather unheard of player funded by the sale to Chelsea of Torres who was past his peak. That certain other player was Suarez.
Selling Torres to buy Carroll and Suarez was excellent transfer work.
There's all kinds of wacky shit involved in aviation that seems completely bonkers to outsiders (because it is completely bonkers) . The US will screw us in any reciprocal agreement - EU carriers already get the short end of the stick in the USA-EU deal so we aren't going to do any better and will probably come out worse