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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is there life after Brexit?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is there life after Brexit?

Chou en-Lai is supposed to have said that his assessment of the French Revolution was “It is too early to tell.” Sadly, this appears to have been a misunderstanding, but the agreeably placid sentiment was echoed by Jacob Rees-Mogg this week. Asked if he’d resign if Brexit turned out badly, he said it might take 50 years before the full impact was apparent.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Nice header. Even after Brexit the Tories will be divided.

    Some will be keen to carry on the austerity and 'pay down the debt'. Others like Boris will want to spend some cash. There may also be divides between those very keen on bonfires of regulation, and others like May who are keener on govt intervention.

    For Labour, I agree that Corbyn is well suited to stop banging on about Europe. But will others in his party let it go? Some care too much, and others will find the temptation of an issue where JC is out of touch with his membership too hard to resist.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Wandering off-topic already, and probably revealing I've not read the previous thread, there seem to be two straws in the wind overnight.

    First, former Brexiteer-in-chief Boris has a pop at Sadiq over crime in London. Will Boris stand for mayor again? I've mooted this before as towards the end of his term at the Foreign Office, he seemed to have entered a non-aggression pact with Number 10.

    Second, Javid has told America they can extradite and execute British ISIL members. I'm not sure that will play as well as he expects with MPs but put that to one side. The bigger question is why they cannot be tried in Britain after all the previous government's changes to the law. Remind me, who was Home Secretary then? Javid is setting out his stall for the leadership election to come.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    I think this Time For A Change reasoning seems optimistic. This government is obviously hopeless, divided and shambolic at a level never seen in living memory, and Labour still can't get a sustained lead over them, even in mid-term.

    I think that indicates the market for a calm, dogged 1970s socialist undeterrable by adversity, criticism or overwhelming contrary evidence isn't big enough to beat a half-competent government.

    If he does win, it'll be for Brexitty reasons, like the conservative coalition breaking apart because the kipper-curious end thinks it was robbed.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Wandering off-topic already, and probably revealing I've not read the previous thread, there seem to be two straws in the wind overnight.

    First, former Brexiteer-in-chief Boris has a pop at Sadiq over crime in London. Will Boris stand for mayor again? I've mooted this before as towards the end of his term at the Foreign Office, he seemed to have entered a non-aggression pact with Number 10.

    Second, Javid has told America they can extradite and execute British ISIL members. I'm not sure that will play as well as he expects with MPs but put that to one side. The bigger question is why they cannot be tried in Britain after all the previous government's changes to the law. Remind me, who was Home Secretary then? Javid is setting out his stall for the leadership election to come.

    Not convinced Boris for London again makes sense.
    It would be a strange strategy to go from Heathrow hiding + Brexit bullishness to then launching a run for mayor.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    I think the SNP having a decisive role in the first post Brexit British government would still be quite a big drawback for a lot of people.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Artist said:

    I think the SNP having a decisive role in the first post Brexit British government would still be quite a big drawback for a lot of people.

    I think that no longer the issue it once was in England. Partly because the SNP seem to be the only adult in the room, and partly because we have just had a year of the DUP tail wagging the Tory dog.

    I think that Nick is a bit optomistic over politics moving on. even if that is what the electorate wants. If the electorate wanted people to stop banging on about Europe then they delivered the wrong outcome 2 years ago. A re-toxified Tory party is not going to shed its albatross easily..
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    Boris won't go for Mayor again. Not only is he tarnished by Brexit as a spokesman for London, of all places, but he was obviously bored with the job when he last had it. Plus demographic change makes it a bigger (indeed near impossible) challenge for the Tories, as is evident from the lack of front row interest in being the next Tory candidate.

    Nick's lead is interesting but complacent; a lengthy restatement of the 'governments lose elections' maxim. Yet if Labour has the advantage there really isn't any sign of it in the polls, going by previous opposition performances against unpopular governments.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    One aspect Nick doesn't mention in his analogy with 1945 is timing. On the optimistic assumption that a deal is done in the timeframe generally desired, then the transition period will end at the end of 2020 and the government will have more than a year to move onto life after Brexit before the next election in 2022.

    Theresa May leaving could help with this - if she goes willingly. She would be seen as the Brexit Prime Minister, and a new PM would provide the moving on that the country needed.

    Imagine how an election in autumn 1947 might have been different to 1945 had Eden taken over from Churchill at the conclusion of WWII and a new election not been required so soon.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    IanB2 said:

    Nick's lead is interesting but complacent; a lengthy restatement of the 'governments lose elections' maxim. Yet if Labour has the advantage there really isn't any sign of it in the polls, going by previous opposition performances against unpopular governments.

    Labour obviously believe JC deserves another shot at a GE after outperforming the, admittedly dysmal, expectations of him in the last one.

    I don't sense much energy for anything in particular from Labour lately.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    "Is there life after BREXIT?"

    Yes Nick, but not as we know it ....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Political turbulence makes forecasting the future rather difficult.

    To be honest, I'd settle for being able to forecast F1, but there we are...

    Suspect the public will form a general impression. They won't chew over the detail but if they feel they've been betrayed they'll hold onto that.

    An interesting factor to consider is whether or not the electorate feel a no deal scenario is just cause for a second referendum.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    rkrkrk said:

    Wandering off-topic already, and probably revealing I've not read the previous thread, there seem to be two straws in the wind overnight.

    First, former Brexiteer-in-chief Boris has a pop at Sadiq over crime in London. Will Boris stand for mayor again? I've mooted this before as towards the end of his term at the Foreign Office, he seemed to have entered a non-aggression pact with Number 10.

    Second, Javid has told America they can extradite and execute British ISIL members. I'm not sure that will play as well as he expects with MPs but put that to one side. The bigger question is why they cannot be tried in Britain after all the previous government's changes to the law. Remind me, who was Home Secretary then? Javid is setting out his stall for the leadership election to come.

    Not convinced Boris for London again makes sense.
    It would be a strange strategy to go from Heathrow hiding + Brexit bullishness to then launching a run for mayor.
    He's now loathed in London. Would have no chance, and he knows it.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    This header is unjustifiably complacent. The new Tory leader won’t just be a new party leader, but a new prime minister. Assuming we get someone with a strong sense of where they want to lead the country and a reasonable set of policies, Tory fortunes could recover quickly.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    After Brexit? You think that the discussions with the EU about the long term future relationship will be done by 29 March 2019? You think they will have started by 29 March 2019? All that's being looked at now is the withdrawal agreement.

    The public will be sick of it, but the subject won't be going away any time soon.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    RoyalBlue said:

    This header is unjustifiably complacent. The new Tory leader won’t just be a new party leader, but a new prime minister. Assuming we get someone with a strong sense of where they want to lead the country and a reasonable set of policies, Tory fortunes could recover quickly.

    Alternatively, it's more than a decade since the last recession, personal debt and mortgage debt are at elevated levels, and house prices are rolling over. There may be a recession completely unrelated to Brexit, and which stuffs the government.

    Or there may not.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    rkrkrk said:

    Wandering off-topic already, and probably revealing I've not read the previous thread, there seem to be two straws in the wind overnight.

    First, former Brexiteer-in-chief Boris has a pop at Sadiq over crime in London. Will Boris stand for mayor again? I've mooted this before as towards the end of his term at the Foreign Office, he seemed to have entered a non-aggression pact with Number 10.

    Second, Javid has told America they can extradite and execute British ISIL members. I'm not sure that will play as well as he expects with MPs but put that to one side. The bigger question is why they cannot be tried in Britain after all the previous government's changes to the law. Remind me, who was Home Secretary then? Javid is setting out his stall for the leadership election to come.

    Not convinced Boris for London again makes sense.
    It would be a strange strategy to go from Heathrow hiding + Brexit bullishness to then launching a run for mayor.
    He's now loathed in London. Would have no chance, and he knows it.
    The Tories are now at shortlisting stage, anyway, and he hasn't applied.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    Dura_Ace said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nick's lead is interesting but complacent; a lengthy restatement of the 'governments lose elections' maxim. Yet if Labour has the advantage there really isn't any sign of it in the polls, going by previous opposition performances against unpopular governments.

    Labour obviously believe JC deserves another shot at a GE after outperforming the, admittedly dysmal, expectations of him in the last one.

    I don't sense much energy for anything in particular from Labour lately.
    Labour is doing what Nick is doing - sitting and waiting for the government to mess up. To be fair there is a reasonable chance of such, but to rely on it whilst doing very little work on your own position remains complacent. Labours top team also remains very weak.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    Foxy said:

    Artist said:

    I think the SNP having a decisive role in the first post Brexit British government would still be quite a big drawback for a lot of people.

    I think that no longer the issue it once was in England. Partly because the SNP seem to be the only adult in the room, and partly because we have just had a year of the DUP tail wagging the Tory dog.

    I think that Nick is a bit optomistic over politics moving on. even if that is what the electorate wants. If the electorate wanted people to stop banging on about Europe then they delivered the wrong outcome 2 years ago. A re-toxified Tory party is not going to shed its albatross easily..
    Back from my holiday travels and able to communicate. What struck me in a Canarian holiday resort was the number of Brits (and other non-Spaniards) living and working. Everyone I asked (not that many, admittedly) was concerned at what would happen to them, and they depend to a greater or less extent on continued good relations between GB & rEU.
    So it rather depends what happens. If all is sweetness and light, or at least ‘only politics’ then all will be well. On the other hand, if it isn’t, the then Tories will be seen to own the car crash and they will be in severe trouble.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Corbyn wins if the government splits into factionalism, with the Grieves or Borises of this world attacking a good compromise. Or if May surrenders on something like services or freedom of movement to EU rule.

    Others are correct in saying that the government is tired and also that Corbyn-McDonnell-Abbott has limited appeal. The outcome of that is renewal in government should be enough to see the Tories home. Someone like Javid or Raab or Mercer should be able to hold on to the Tory core vote and their new Brexity working class supporters, while also bringing in the floating voters who like someone who seems down-to-earth, professional and dynamic.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Elliot, need a good compromise first.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,587

    After Brexit? You think that the discussions with the EU about the long term future relationship will be done by 29 March 2019? You think they will have started by 29 March 2019? All that's being looked at now is the withdrawal agreement.

    The public will be sick of it, but the subject won't be going away any time soon.

    Agreed. Nick's whole article is what our US friends would call weak sauce.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,587
    rcs1000 said:
    It is, but needs to be read in conjunction with this one, which accounts for Trump's subservience when dealing with Putin.
    https://www.newyorker.com/news-desk/swamp-chronicles/a-theory-of-trump-kompromat
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: early, but there's rain potentially in the air on Sunday. Keep an eye on the forecast.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Brexit hasn't turned out as expected at any stage so far. Let's wait and see what happens next.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Scott_P said:
    Don't we already have death by drone - without trial?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Mr. Elliot, need a good compromise first.

    Yes and Chequers is a good basis. It depends on how the EU responds. Anyone not clouded by europhile purism should realise a rejection will end at best in a harder Brexiteer, and at worse JRM, Boris or Corbyn. All of them would be far worse from the EU's perspective. But who knows with the EU.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Mark, different kettle of monkeys entirely.

    Killing someone in a war zone or when they're believed to be about to commit a suicide bombing is completely different to executing someone at the end of a judicial process.

    Mr. Elliot, the EU has just said Chequers doesn't work.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rcs1000 said:
    Is it a good article on Trump? Its thesis does not explain why Trump is pro-Russia and anti-China. If anything, it suggests Trump should prefer Xi to Putin. Does it explain, rather than describe or simply list, anything about Trump?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,718
    edited July 2018
    Given even if May does get a deal in a withdrawal agreement it will only be for a transition deal details of a FTA to be worked on later anybody who thinks Brexit will be solved by just avoiding crashing out without a deal next March is likely to be disappointed. Plus anti Brexiteers will still be pushing for the UK to at least stay in the single market and customs union longer term while hard Brexiteers will want the transition period to end as soon as possible trading agreement or no trading agreement so we get a 'full Brexit.'

    As for Labour's prospects at the next general election, certainly the weekend polling suggests if the Tories do not go into the next general election with a committed Brexiteer like Boris Labour will win just because the left will turn out for Corbyn while some of the right will vote for UKIP rather than Tory which matters under FPTP. Though Corbyn is also likely to narrowly beat Mogg the polling suggests as Mogg does not get as many centrist voters as Boris
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,718
    rcs1000 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    This header is unjustifiably complacent. The new Tory leader won’t just be a new party leader, but a new prime minister. Assuming we get someone with a strong sense of where they want to lead the country and a reasonable set of policies, Tory fortunes could recover quickly.

    Alternatively, it's more than a decade since the last recession, personal debt and mortgage debt are at elevated levels, and house prices are rolling over. There may be a recession completely unrelated to Brexit, and which stuffs the government.

    Or there may not.
    The Tories won in 1992 in a recession as Kinnock was the alternative, the Tories lost in 1997 when the economy was booming as Blair was the alternative
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    At some point, Brexit will go away, but not soon, and not before the next election. No-one voted Leave to make ourselves poorer, with fewer prospects, to have political instability and to lose most of our influence over things that matter to us. On.C4 news last night Conservative Leave voters were outraged by Chequers. But a) Chequers is not going to happen and b) Chequers is better than any likely Brexit outcome. Leave voters don't accept the consequences of their decision. Meanwhile Remain voters resent the whole thing.

    It would be better if Brexit was something that happened to us. A tsunami that hits, we deal with it and move on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,718
    edited July 2018
    IanB2 said:

    Boris won't go for Mayor again. Not only is he tarnished by Brexit as a spokesman for London, of all places, but he was obviously bored with the job when he last had it. Plus demographic change makes it a bigger (indeed near impossible) challenge for the Tories, as is evident from the lack of front row interest in being the next Tory candidate.

    Nick's lead is interesting but complacent; a lengthy restatement of the 'governments lose elections' maxim. Yet if Labour has the advantage there really isn't any sign of it in the polls, going by previous opposition performances against unpopular governments.

    Boris can't anyway, CCHQ selected the final shortlist of Tory candidates for Mayor at the weekend to be sent to London members.

    Only GLA members Shaun Bailey and Andrew Boff and Ealing Cllr Joy Morrissey made the cut

    https://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2018/07/exclusive-the-three-candidates-shortlisted-for-conservative-london-mayoral-nomination.html
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807

    Brexit hasn't turned out as expected at any stage so far. Let's wait and see what happens next.

    Some were predicting from the outset that Brexit would be chaotic. An objective assessment always indicated that the process would be off the scale in its complexity and, therefore, unpredictability.



  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,545
    rcs1000 said:
    LOL.

    "Now dear reader before I go on I must explain. Just in case you haven’t already understood. Conservatives are.. well very conservative."

    Any small-c 'conservative' would not have voted to leave in the EU referendum. There is nothing 'conservative' in voting for such an uncertain proposition. As we're seeing now.

    Brexit is revolution, not evolution. It's why Corbyn's so much in favour of it: it's creating instability and creating opportunities for further change - and ones that may not necesarily be to conservatives' liking - whether small-c or large-C.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997


    Javid has told America they can extradite and execute British ISIL members. I'm not sure that will play as well as he expects with MPs but put that to one side. The bigger question is why they cannot be tried in Britain after all the previous government's changes to the law. Remind me, who was Home Secretary then? Javid is setting out his stall for the leadership election to come.

    Treason ought to stick.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Dr P,

    A reasonable hypothesis, but there are two contradictory thoughts.

    "but on the whole they’re up for a bit of socialism for a change." and "people get that he’s a dogged socialist." The latter phrase is shorthand for he's a a Trot, and they don't do "a bit."

    As the famous line in 'Cabaret' nearly says … "Do you still think you can control them, Neil?"

    I understand why they need to get a broader alliance on show, but when push comes to shove, jezza won't water down his principles. He no longer wears a string vest, and he's learned to speak politics (better than Mrs May), but he hasn't got a decade to see 'proper socialism' gradually come in the UK, and he won't wait.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997

    Mr. Mark, different kettle of monkeys entirely.

    Killing someone in a war zone or when they're believed to be about to commit a suicide bombing is completely different to executing someone at the end of a judicial process..

    We did resort to a particularly egregious level of bulls hit to justify the drone killings. They were enemy combatants in a war zone and could be killed with impunity. Their nationality was irrelevant, other than making them traitors.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Lilburne, killing terrorists in a theatre of war is not something that will trouble most people. It's not the same thing as practising or endorsing execution as part of a judicial process.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Brexit hasn't turned out as expected at any stage so far. Let's wait and see what happens next.

    I disagree. It is turning out exactly as I expected, just 3 or 4 months later thsn I thought
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    edited July 2018

    Mr. Lilburne, killing terrorists in a theatre of war is not something that will trouble most people. It's not the same thing as practising or endorsing execution as part of a judicial process.

    Their guilt is clear, they tortured and killed. The murders filmed.

    What i don't understand is why they'd ever leave Iraq. Why wouldn't the Iraqi state have jurisdiction over crimes carried out on it's soil?

    The Iraqis should just string them up like they do with other murders and terrorists.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,545

    Mr. Lilburne, killing terrorists in a theatre of war is not something that will trouble most people. It's not the same thing as practising or endorsing execution as part of a judicial process.

    The problem is that a military's definition of 'terrorist' may be rather different to one that would be used in a court of law.

    Whilst I do not particularly disagree with the attacks against these people, it is important for it not to become common or abused.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Is the story about LibDems grey suits plotting to install Moran as leader, the first official 'silly season' story?

    Or is it genuine?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    After Brexit? You think that the discussions with the EU about the long term future relationship will be done by 29 March 2019? You think they will have started by 29 March 2019? All that's being looked at now is the withdrawal agreement.

    The public will be sick of it, but the subject won't be going away any time soon.

    We really do need the "Like" button back
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Off topic, and with apologies for those who saw this over the weekend, but my father died last weekend and I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    In case anyone missed Trump's overnight tweet:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1021234525626609666

    He is slowly walking the US to war against Iran, something that Jon Bolton will be pushing for no doubt.

    He told his base, no more stupid wars in the middle east, but they have probably forgotten that by now.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,545

    Off topic, and with apologies for those who saw this over the weekend, but my father died last weekend and I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    Sorry to hear about your loss Alastair, and that was a very moving piece.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968
    So on yesterday's Vince cable thread did anyone mention his profound thoughts last year on soft fruits ?

    ' “This week Wimbledon is being launched and the people who normally produce the strawberries can’t produce them because the labour force has disappeared because of anxiety about their future status in Britain,” he told Sky News’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday programme. '

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/87184/hard-brexit-threatens-strawberry-shortage-wimbledon-vince

    That really is the only thing I can remember Cable saying during the last year.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968
    Sunday's Tesco Strawberry score was a better than average nine:

    Fife
    Nottinghamshire
    Staffordshire
    Norfolk
    Cambridgeshire
    Herefordshire
    Surrey
    West Sussex
    Kent

    More interesting was the appearance of plums from Kent.

    Isn't July rather early for British plums ?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883



    Killing someone in a war zone or when they're believed to be about to commit a suicide bombing is completely different to executing someone at the end of a judicial process.

    Not everyone in the ME who gets an MQ-9 knuckle shampoo is in a taxi on their way to a suicide bombing. Not by a long chalk...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724

    Off topic, and with apologies for those who saw this over the weekend, but my father died last weekend and I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    Very moving, Mr M. It can be hard.losing a parent, and you’ve obviously put your heart into that.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    "The labour force has disappeared."

    Indeed?

    I was in Boston last week visiting family and we took a taxi to the pub for a meal. The driver was a young Polish lady. Perhaps they've now realised, like the locals, that you can get better wages and conditions by doing something else?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Off topic, and with apologies for those who saw this over the weekend, but my father died last weekend and I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    really nice article Alistair
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968

    Off topic, and with apologies for those who saw this over the weekend, but my father died last weekend and I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    My sympathies.

    It was a good read.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    edited July 2018
    Generally I would agree.

    But I think the consequences of the deal, whatever it is, will continue to impact British politics rather more than you are anticipating. Suppose jobs start being lost in the car industry or in finance and tax revenues fall, suppose regulations are brought in which particularly impact Britain but which we cannot change or even lobby on and so on. Whichever government is in power will be working out the practical and, I suspect, far-reaching consequences of Britain not being in the EU for some considerable time.

    Plus you are assuming that the economy will be toddling along in the same way as now and that there will be the rax revenues available to have no austerity etc. That may well be over-optimistic.

    Leaving the EU is the start not the end of the process. Even with some sort of deal we have no real idea what happens next and whoever is in power will be forced to think about its relationship with the EU and the wider world in a way which neither of the main parties have really done until now.

    And if there is a crash out deal, Brexit will - if possible - consume even more of the available political oxygen than now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Wandering off-topic already, and probably revealing I've not read the previous thread, there seem to be two straws in the wind overnight.

    First, former Brexiteer-in-chief Boris has a pop at Sadiq over crime in London. Will Boris stand for mayor again? I've mooted this before as towards the end of his term at the Foreign Office, he seemed to have entered a non-aggression pact with Number 10.

    Second, Javid has told America they can extradite and execute British ISIL members. I'm not sure that will play as well as he expects with MPs but put that to one side. The bigger question is why they cannot be tried in Britain after all the previous government's changes to the law. Remind me, who was Home Secretary then? Javid is setting out his stall for the leadership election to come.

    He has been since he got the job and made an immediate splash with a series of c announcements. This one surprises me event though the death penalty is pretty popular.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    CD13 said:

    "The labour force has disappeared."

    Indeed?

    I was in Boston last week visiting family and we took a taxi to the pub for a meal. The driver was a young Polish lady. Perhaps they've now realised, like the locals, that you can get better wages and conditions by doing something else?

    Stereotyping for the win.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    On topic, a generally good piece from Nick but I disagree with his prediction that a last-minute deal will sort the issue, which I think is born of the 'this is how Brussels works' mentality that Brexit was a revolt against. That kind of business-as-usual approach will be rejected if it produced an outcome-as-usual - i.e. the fudge he predicts.

    This is not simply a matter of ministers, diplomats and bureaucrats talking in a sealed-off room in a manner that would be familiar to Metternich or Talleyrand. May has gone as far as she will be allowed to go with the Chequers Deal (which has little support from the public and which she has already allowed to be undermined by her MPs). If the other EU ministers accept Chequers as the basis for a deal then it's possible that something could be agreed. If not, then we really are into No Deal territory because there will be no overlap between the two sides' acceptable positions.

    If May feels, in such circumstances, pressured by events (and by being away from her MPs, to whom she's never been particularly close), and signs something, she will be No Confidenced and replaced, almost certainly, by a firm Leaver - at the worst possible time for sorting out the mess that will come from a Crash Brexit. On the other hand, if she vetoes any EU deal - and/or the EU vetoes any UK proposal - then we just have a straightforward No Deal fall-out. Neither of these outcomes is likely to take Brexit off the table as a domestic politics issue.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Off topic, and with apologies for those who saw this over the weekend, but my father died last weekend and I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    Sorry to hear about your dad.

    I will, however, confess to feeding a fridge thief some laxative chocolate so I could well believe your dad did the same :)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    Off topic, and with apologies for those who saw this over the weekend, but my father died last weekend and I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    Lovely Alastair. Your love for him really shines through. Condolences on your loss.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Foxy said:

    Artist said:

    I think the SNP having a decisive role in the first post Brexit British government would still be quite a big drawback for a lot of people.

    I think that no longer the issue it once was in England. Partly because the SNP seem to be the only adult in the room, and partly because we have just had a year of the DUP tail wagging the Tory dog.
    Similar but not the same thing. Allying with someone else is easy to sell, it depends who you ally with. Many are not fans of the DUP and in a lot of ways the SNP might be better. But would the price of the SNP be perceived as likely to be too high, given their goals?

    Your post assumes the only issue is an agreement with someone else, when I'd think it's about what people think the price woukd be.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    kle4 said:

    Wandering off-topic already, and probably revealing I've not read the previous thread, there seem to be two straws in the wind overnight.

    First, former Brexiteer-in-chief Boris has a pop at Sadiq over crime in London. Will Boris stand for mayor again? I've mooted this before as towards the end of his term at the Foreign Office, he seemed to have entered a non-aggression pact with Number 10.

    Second, Javid has told America they can extradite and execute British ISIL members. I'm not sure that will play as well as he expects with MPs but put that to one side. The bigger question is why they cannot be tried in Britain after all the previous government's changes to the law. Remind me, who was Home Secretary then? Javid is setting out his stall for the leadership election to come.

    He has been since he got the job and made an immediate splash with a series of c announcements. This one surprises me event though the death penalty is pretty popular.
    I don't think the death penalty is popular in general, but given the people involved there will be a lot of support for this move. I think most people know that if we extradited them then it would be 10 years of human rights cases, appeals and a solid chance of them getting off on a technicality. Javid has sidestepped all of that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Mr. Mark, different kettle of monkeys entirely.

    Killing someone in a war zone or when they're believed to be about to commit a suicide bombing is completely different to executing someone at the end of a judicial process.

    Mr. Elliot, the EU has just said Chequers doesn't work.

    Agreed.

    And on Chequers, I remain baffled that given the EU are saying no that everyone is just continuing on. Time to commit to no deal, horrible as it may be, May cannot fudge a deal from what the EU have said.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    edited July 2018

    Off topic, and with apologies for those who saw this over the weekend, but my father died last weekend and I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    A beautiful and moving tribute. Many condolences.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Mr. Lilburne, killing terrorists in a theatre of war is not something that will trouble most people. It's not the same thing as practising or endorsing execution as part of a judicial process.

    The problem is that a military's definition of 'terrorist' may be rather different to one that would be used in a court of law.

    Whilst I do not particularly disagree with the attacks against these people, it is important for it not to become common or abused.
    Yes that's fair, as it certainly can be. But the point remains there is a difference between that and what Javid is proposing. I assume as red meat to the members when a contest happens.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,468

    rcs1000 said:
    Is it a good article on Trump? Its thesis does not explain why Trump is pro-Russia and anti-China. If anything, it suggests Trump should prefer Xi to Putin. Does it explain, rather than describe or simply list, anything about Trump?
    The extremes tend to think life and the world is pretty simple. How many times have we heard the street interview where someone complains why don't we just leave the EU; its like leaving the golf club. We just go. No stuff to sort out.

    Trumps press sessions come over as if he is in this category; completely. He prefers one to ones and not dealing with groups, he seems to believe a negotiation has to be win/lose and never win/win, press interviews collapse into incoherent rambles when anything above surface level stuff is touched upon.

    Could it just be there is nothing to analysis re motives, thoughts, etc and that there is just nothing there or at least nothing more than apparent 'common-sense' driven by simplistic analysis by tabloid type media.

    I appreciate I may have contradicted myself!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Is the story about LibDems grey suits plotting to install Moran as leader, the first official 'silly season' story?

    Or is it genuine?

    Could be genuinely silly.....
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:


    And on Chequers, I remain baffled that given the EU are saying no that everyone is just continuing on. Time to commit to no deal, horrible as it may be, May cannot fudge a deal from what the EU have said.

    It seems pretty obvious to me now that the EU's strategy is to run down the clock. They no longer want a deal, they want to force the UK to choose between to equally humiliating alternatives: pleading for an extension or crashing out with no deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    Wandering off-topic already, and probably revealing I've not read the previous thread, there seem to be two straws in the wind overnight.

    First, former Brexiteer-in-chief Boris has a pop at Sadiq over crime in London. Will Boris stand for mayor again? I've mooted this before as towards the end of his term at the Foreign Office, he seemed to have entered a non-aggression pact with Number 10.

    Second, Javid has told America they can extradite and execute British ISIL members. I'm not sure that will play as well as he expects with MPs but put that to one side. The bigger question is why they cannot be tried in Britain after all the previous government's changes to the law. Remind me, who was Home Secretary then? Javid is setting out his stall for the leadership election to come.

    He has been since he got the job and made an immediate splash with a series of c announcements. This one surprises me event though the death penalty is pretty popular.
    I don't think the death penalty is popular in general, but given the people involved there will be a lot of support for this move. I think most people know that if we extradited them then it would be 10 years of human rights cases, appeals and a solid chance of them getting off on a technicality. Javid has sidestepped all of that.
    It's fairly popular. Sometimes it gets majority support in polls, though I think it may have dropped in recent years. That's despite politically being basically a non issue. So at the least significant numbers approve of it.

    The complexity, lengthy delays etc are just 2 of the reasons I'm not one of them.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    kle4 said:

    Mr. Mark, different kettle of monkeys entirely.

    Killing someone in a war zone or when they're believed to be about to commit a suicide bombing is completely different to executing someone at the end of a judicial process.

    Mr. Elliot, the EU has just said Chequers doesn't work.

    Agreed.

    And on Chequers, I remain baffled that given the EU are saying no that everyone is just continuing on. Time to commit to no deal, horrible as it may be, May cannot fudge a deal from what the EU have said.
    From The Guardian, 30th Sept 2016

    One senior European diplomat told the Guardian that a hard Brexit was inevitable because it was “hardwired into the referendum”.

    “I am appalled to see that politicians with a mandate do not fully realise the meaning of what they are saying,” the source said. “There is not much to negotiate because you need to know what you want.”


    Not much has changed in 2 years ...
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    The scary thing is that however divided, incompetent and hopeless the current government is, A Corbyn Labour government will be even worse.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Elliot said:

    Mr. Elliot, need a good compromise first.

    Yes and Chequers is a good basis. It depends on how the EU responds. Anyone not clouded by europhile purism should realise a rejection will end at best in a harder Brexiteer, and at worse JRM, Boris or Corbyn. All of them would be far worse from the EU's perspective. But who knows with the EU.
    Barnier rejected it on Friday as unworkable, to the surprise of nobody.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    On topic, a generally good piece from Nick but I disagree with his prediction that a last-minute deal will sort the issue, which I think is born of the 'this is how Brussels works' mentality that Brexit was a revolt against. That kind of business-as-usual approach will be rejected if it produced an outcome-as-usual - i.e. the fudge he predicts.

    This is not simply a matter of ministers, diplomats and bureaucrats talking in a sealed-off room in a manner that would be familiar to Metternich or Talleyrand. May has gone as far as she will be allowed to go with the Chequers Deal (which has little support from the public and which she has already allowed to be undermined by her MPs). If the other EU ministers accept Chequers as the basis for a deal then it's possible that something could be agreed. If not, then we really are into No Deal territory because there will be no overlap between the two sides' acceptable positions.

    If May feels, in such circumstances, pressured by events (and by being away from her MPs, to whom she's never been particularly close), and signs something, she will be No Confidenced and replaced, almost certainly, by a firm Leaver - at the worst possible time for sorting out the mess that will come from a Crash Brexit. On the other hand, if she vetoes any EU deal - and/or the EU vetoes any UK proposal - then we just have a straightforward No Deal fall-out. Neither of these outcomes is likely to take Brexit off the table as a domestic politics issue.

    Agreed. We've fed on fudge a long time, and people are sick of it, particularly as brinkmanship has pushed the sides to extremes. May isn't bluffing. They assume she is. But Chequers would have been hard enough, getting an even more EU friendly version through just won't happen. Complacency that the sides can square that circle us why were getting no deal, as it's the same complacency that we wouldn't vote to leave, that is, wrong.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:

    Leaving the EU is the start not the end of the process.

    Let us have a Churchillian moment (the man, not the nodding dog) since Brexiteers and Leavers might get it ...

    "[Brexit] is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,235

    In case anyone missed Trump's overnight tweet:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1021234525626609666

    He is slowly walking the US to war against Iran, something that Jon Bolton will be pushing for no doubt.

    He told his base, no more stupid wars in the middle east, but they have probably forgotten that by now.

    Reminds me of Johnny Sack in The Sopranos: 'You either deliver that pr*ck to my door or I will rain a sh*tstorm down on you and your family like you have never f*cking seen.'
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:


    Agreed. We've fed on fudge a long time, and people are sick of it, particularly as brinkmanship has pushed the sides to extremes. May isn't bluffing. They assume she is. But Chequers would have been hard enough, getting an even more EU friendly version through just won't happen. Complacency that the sides can square that circle us why were getting no deal, as it's the same complacency that we wouldn't vote to leave, that is, wrong.


    What May wants is no longer relevant. She's not in control of events and is unlikely to regain control either.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,288

    Off topic, and with apologies for those who saw this over the weekend, but my father died last weekend and I've written a few words about him. Please read them:

    https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2

    Thanks for sharing. Sounds like you had a great dad Alastair, you may not feel like it at the moment but you're a lucky guy.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,545
    Off-topic:

    So, if a Corbyn government is likely in the next few years, what would be the best forms of investments? I can imagine he's going to hammer the utilities and finance / banking.

    But are there any areas that may *gain* from Corbynite policies? I guess I can't buy shares in trade unions ...

    (Note: I; not looking for investment advice; just what people think might be the areas least susceptible to his policies.)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited July 2018

    kle4 said:


    And on Chequers, I remain baffled that given the EU are saying no that everyone is just continuing on. Time to commit to no deal, horrible as it may be, May cannot fudge a deal from what the EU have said.

    It seems pretty obvious to me now that the EU's strategy is to run down the clock. They no longer want a deal, they want to force the UK to choose between to equally humiliating alternatives: pleading for an extension or crashing out with no deal.
    The EU doesn't want an extension I think, and they wouldn't mind a deal. But it'll be THEIR deal on humiliating terms for the PM. They are not desperate for a deal in the way May soon will be with the high pressure lobbying from big business she's facing.
    This isn't an arms length transaction between two equal entities.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Mr. Mark, different kettle of monkeys entirely.

    Killing someone in a war zone or when they're believed to be about to commit a suicide bombing is completely different to executing someone at the end of a judicial process.

    Mr Dancer, as a lawyer of course I have to agree with you whole-heartedly.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,288
    CD13 said:

    Dr P,

    A reasonable hypothesis, but there are two contradictory thoughts.

    "but on the whole they’re up for a bit of socialism for a change." and "people get that he’s a dogged socialist." The latter phrase is shorthand for he's a a Trot, and they don't do "a bit."

    As the famous line in 'Cabaret' nearly says … "Do you still think you can control them, Neil?"

    I understand why they need to get a broader alliance on show, but when push comes to shove, jezza won't water down his principles. He no longer wears a string vest, and he's learned to speak politics (better than Mrs May), but he hasn't got a decade to see 'proper socialism' gradually come in the UK, and he won't wait.

    Pah! File under 'bogeyman scare stories'.

    Jezza as PM would only be able to do what parliament will allow. Labour are unlikely to have an outright majority; Momentum will definitely not have one.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:


    And on Chequers, I remain baffled that given the EU are saying no that everyone is just continuing on. Time to commit to no deal, horrible as it may be, May cannot fudge a deal from what the EU have said.

    It seems pretty obvious to me now that the EU's strategy is to run down the clock. They no longer want a deal, they want to force the UK to choose between to equally humiliating alternatives: pleading for an extension or crashing out with no deal.
    The EU doesn't want an extension I think, and they wouldn't mind a deal. But it'll be THEIR deal on humiliating terms for the PM. But they are not depserate for a deal in the way May will be.
    This isn't an arms length transaction between two equal entities.
    Indeed not. The EU now sense that they have within its grasp the opportunity to internationally humiliate the UK. This is too good an opportunity to miss.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Extraditing someone to potentially face the death penalty is widely thought to be incompatible with ECHR making any such step by Javid illegal and preventable. I would be pretty astonished if our courts did not stop it.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    Off-topic:

    So, if a Corbyn government is likely in the next few years, what would be the best forms of investments? I can imagine he's going to hammer the utilities and finance / banking.

    But are there any areas that may *gain* from Corbynite policies? I guess I can't buy shares in trade unions ...

    (Note: I; not looking for investment advice; just what people think might be the areas least susceptible to his policies.)

    an aeroplane ticket to a business friendly location is probably your best investment, failing that get as much cash out of the country as possible, offshore equities. Perhaps a bitcoin or two as a speculative hedge against the inevitable inflation he'll bring
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,288
    rcs1000 said:

    Clearly a work of fiction - that's a moray eel, not a conger.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:


    And on Chequers, I remain baffled that given the EU are saying no that everyone is just continuing on. Time to commit to no deal, horrible as it may be, May cannot fudge a deal from what the EU have said.

    It seems pretty obvious to me now that the EU's strategy is to run down the clock. They no longer want a deal, they want to force the UK to choose between to equally humiliating alternatives: pleading for an extension or crashing out with no deal.
    The EU doesn't want an extension I think, and they wouldn't mind a deal. But it'll be THEIR deal on humiliating terms for the PM. But they are not depserate for a deal in the way May will be.
    This isn't an arms length transaction between two equal entities.
    Indeed not. The EU now sense that they have within its grasp the opportunity to internationally humiliate the UK. This is too good an opportunity to miss.
    It is an opportunity we handed to them on a plate (or perhaps the Tory right handed to them on a silver salver via the butler)
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    edited July 2018
    houndtang said:

    The scary thing is that however divided, incompetent and hopeless the current government is, A Corbyn Labour government will be even worse.

    All this nonsense about a hopeless Government, full employment, record employment,low inflation, rising wages, large increases in personal tax allowance for the lower paid, the deficit massively reduced. Go on tell me what a good government would do better with the economy?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    A lying, money grubbing, morally compromised, blustering buffoon and...och well, you know the rest.

    https://twitter.com/IrishUnity/status/1021143388064829441
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    DavidL said:

    Extraditing someone to potentially face the death penalty is widely thought to be incompatible with ECHR making any such step by Javid illegal and preventable. I would be pretty astonished if our courts did not stop it.

    There's no extradition necessary from the UK, though. They aren't on UK soil and haven't been caught by UK forces. Javid is basically saying he's not going to fight the US extraditing them from Iraq.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,288

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:


    And on Chequers, I remain baffled that given the EU are saying no that everyone is just continuing on. Time to commit to no deal, horrible as it may be, May cannot fudge a deal from what the EU have said.

    It seems pretty obvious to me now that the EU's strategy is to run down the clock. They no longer want a deal, they want to force the UK to choose between to equally humiliating alternatives: pleading for an extension or crashing out with no deal.
    The EU doesn't want an extension I think, and they wouldn't mind a deal. But it'll be THEIR deal on humiliating terms for the PM. But they are not depserate for a deal in the way May will be.
    This isn't an arms length transaction between two equal entities.
    Indeed not. The EU now sense that they have within its grasp the opportunity to internationally humiliate the UK. This is too good an opportunity to miss.
    But surely we hold all the cards? Don't they need us more than we need them after all then?!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234


    But surely we hold all the cards? Don't they need us more than we need them after all then?!

    Brexiteers, amongst their other numerous errors, massively overestimated how willing the EU would be to give us a deal.

    Turns out negotiating, which is what the EU does *constantly*, is something they've gotten rather good at.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    kle4 said:

    Mr. Mark, different kettle of monkeys entirely.

    Killing someone in a war zone or when they're believed to be about to commit a suicide bombing is completely different to executing someone at the end of a judicial process.

    Mr. Elliot, the EU has just said Chequers doesn't work.

    Agreed.

    And on Chequers, I remain baffled that given the EU are saying no that everyone is just continuing on. Time to commit to no deal, horrible as it may be, May cannot fudge a deal from what the EU have said.
    The 'EU' - i.e. the Commission - has said 'No' but that's far from the end of the game. Firstly, it wasn't a particularly firm 'no', which suggests that there may be scope for discussion. More importantly, we're getting to a point where the real negotiations are with the EU27 rather than Team Barnier, so a 'no' from the Commission isn't definitive even if it was fully-meant.

    But even if a fudge is on from Europe's side, it's not really on from Britain's. Political numbers mean that it's something like Chequers or nothing. And as nothing isn't worth talking about, that's why people are 'just carrying on', as you rightly put it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    edited July 2018
    houndtang said:

    The scary thing is that however divided, incompetent and hopeless the current government is, A Corbyn Labour government will be even worse.

    I think human nature inclines to hypothetical shiteness over very real, tangible shiteness a lot of the time.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:


    And on Chequers, I remain baffled that given the EU are saying no that everyone is just continuing on. Time to commit to no deal, horrible as it may be, May cannot fudge a deal from what the EU have said.

    It seems pretty obvious to me now that the EU's strategy is to run down the clock. They no longer want a deal, they want to force the UK to choose between to equally humiliating alternatives: pleading for an extension or crashing out with no deal.
    The EU doesn't want an extension I think, and they wouldn't mind a deal. But it'll be THEIR deal on humiliating terms for the PM. But they are not depserate for a deal in the way May will be.
    This isn't an arms length transaction between two equal entities.
    Indeed not. The EU now sense that they have within its grasp the opportunity to internationally humiliate the UK. This is too good an opportunity to miss.
    But surely we hold all the cards? Don't they need us more than we need them after all then?!
    We have a trade deficit with the EU so yes they do
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Those salivating for a Treaty of Versailles: remind the class what happened afterwards, perhaps?

    [Said for a while the far right could credibly rise and there's a plausible path for that to occur. Either no deal or an attempt (successful or not) by the EU to extort a terrible deal for the UK would fit].
This discussion has been closed.