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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A new month starts and UKIP’s support remains buoyant

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A new month starts and UKIP’s support remains buoyant

Another month starts and there’s no sign that support for UKIP is on the wane in spite of the much publicised blow at the party’s annual conference 11 days ago.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,528
    Slight problems with the chart, methinks ...
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    What is the net gain/loss of seats for UKIP since the May council election?

    I am sure Mr. Senior knows.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 2h

    Heseltine on whether UKIP is racist: "Of course it’s racist, who doubts that? Farage isn’t but his party is very attracted to racist agenda
    Buoyant indeed.
    UKIP ‏@UKIP 15m

    UKIP MEP candidate Amjad Bashir has challenged Michael Heseltine to an open public debate.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    FPT
    tim said:

    As A Father missing the point as usual.

    166,000 single mothers under-25 claim housing benefit, plus 31,000 couples.
    680,000 claimants - out of 5m in total - are single women over the age of 65.

    Isn't gulags for slags a Labour policy for solving this problem?

    The name of the policy would certainly seem to fit in with Ed's new positioning of his party.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    UKIP are None Of The Above, following the Lib Dems going into government but they're also the anti-Labour/anti-Coalition party, following to Tories going into coalition.

    Many of those who vote UKIP are motivated by either voting *against* the main three parties or are core anti-EU voters (but only about 2-3%). Godfrey Bloom is unlikely to make much impact on either group.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    FPT

    The high satire of your comedy spinning is of course unmatched, Seth O Logue.
    Some might foolishly think it clunkingly obvious and simplistic variations on the laughably inept Dacre spin that little Ed is somehow an evil Stalin of our time, but you of course are sending up the idiots on here doing that, aren't you? ;)
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Same speech as last year, not memorable etc. That went well then.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013

    UKIP are None Of The Above, following the Lib Dems going into government but they're also the anti-Labour/anti-Coalition party, following to Tories going into coalition.

    Many of those who vote UKIP are motivated by either voting *against* the main three parties or are core anti-EU voters (but only about 2-3%). Godfrey Bloom is unlikely to make much impact on either group.

    True but it wasn't little Ed or Cammie who said Bloom had destroyed the UKIP conference.
    It wasn't even Heseltine. It was Farage and I don't think he was joking at the time.
    Sweating? yes, joking? nope.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVnB7-QzOns
  • Very Crosby-esque speech, aimed at the strivers and the optimists.
    Low on policy, high on vision, leavened with attacks painting Ed and Labour as backward-looking.
    Not his best delivery, but appeared to be aiming at statesman-like, rather than radical.
    Personally, as an optimist and believer in effort in, reward out politics, I was pleased.
    I think the softer end of the UKIP market will be impressed, if any of them saw it.
    As always, most people will only see the bits replayed by the BBC and ITV News this evening, so let's see how they play it.
    Could Shadsy offer us a bet on whether the BBC 6 O'Clock News will have more words from Nick Robinson than David Cameron?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013
    For those who missed it. Though it's bound to get some play amongst the media now.
    BBC Politics ‏@BBCPolitics 16m

    VIDEO: Heseltine: UKIP is a racist party http://bbc.in/1fID5DN
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Totally agree with that view. This speech was pitched at appealing to the future aspirations of those strivers and optimists, very much in the tradition of the last Conservative Governments under Thatcher. Far more positive than Miliband or Clegg's speeches in that respect. You don't post often enough these days Baskerville.

    Very Crosby-esque speech, aimed at the strivers and the optimists.
    Low on policy, high on vision, leavened with attacks painting Ed and Labour as backward-looking.
    Not his best delivery, but appeared to be aiming at statesman-like, rather than radical.
    Personally, as an optimist and believer in effort in, reward out politics, I was pleased.
    I think the softer end of the UKIP market will be impressed, if any of them saw it.
    As always, most people will only see the bits replayed by the BBC and ITV News this evening, so let's see how they play it.
    Could Shadsy offer us a bet on whether the BBC 6 O'Clock News will have more words from Nick Robinson than David Cameron?

  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    @Carlotta

    "R4 picking up on the policy bit "everyone under 25 either earning or learning" - Robinson says this might extend to withdrawing all benefits from under 25s if they don't participate...."

    Maggie did the same with claimants between 16 and 18. It did more social damage than any of her other innovations. You couldn't move for rent boys and 16 year old prostitutes in central London particularly railway stations. Shop doorways in the West End became filled with young people living in cardboard boxes and shop and begging became endemic.

    'Shelter' warned that this would happen but Maggie knew best
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Mick_Pork said:

    For those who missed it. Though it's bound to get some play amongst the media now.

    BBC Politics ‏@BBCPolitics 16m

    VIDEO: Heseltine: UKIP is a racist party http://bbc.in/1fID5DN
    I'm disappointed Mick.

    The conference season is over and you haven't commented once on whether Justine or Sam had the nicer outfit. If Fashionista Mick doesn't give us the lowdown on what's hot, who will ?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited October 2013
    I think the more that Heseltine clip gets played, the stronger UKIP will get.

    What a silly old fool, the Cons should look to ease him into retirement

    One thing he gets right. At the end, he seemingly unknowingly confirms what Powell predicted would happen to have happened.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited October 2013
    Cameron's vision of the future. New school uniforms for the under 10's

    http://www.bootshopuk.com/jcb-hollington-coveralls?gclid=CMfg45Cf-LkCFU3LtAod2VYAqw
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013
    @tim

    You can see from those figures why the bedroom tax was framed to hit the disabled rather than grannies can't you.

    As a Father may be a staggering hypocrite regarding people caring for disabled relatives- with no intention of dealing with the real housing issues, but he's not stupid.


    tim

    1. Pensioner life expectancy provides liquidity in the social housing market. A seventy five year old granny is not going to hold on to her council house for as long as a forty year single mum whose brood have fled the nest.

    2. Playing the disabled carer card to justify taxpayers subsidising under utilisation of housing stock in a oversubscribed market is populist deception. The disabled are the exceptions not the rule and are catered for by special funding.

    3. Private sector housing is built to demand. Housing construction under the Coalition government is far higher as a proportion of current demand than ever achieved under Labour and there is sufficient supply side capacity to meet rising demand up to around 240,000 units per year. There is nothing Miliband can or will do to improve the current position.

    4. The complex problem to solve is the need for substantial new stock of low cost social housing. Neither you not Miliband have set out clear policies in this area allowing a vague "we will build 200,000 dwellings per year" promise to avoid addressing the problem.

    As you and Ed know well the 200k total will be achieved by the private sector as the economy recovers. It requires no new policy, government support or funding over and above what is already being offered.

    But it won't answer the need for new social housing for which the former business model (government borrowing) is flawed. Council houses are not being built because they do not return the costs of investment. Hence, they need substantial government borrowing/subsidy. Avoiding such cost was the reason why Labour built no more than 6,000 council houses in 14 years of government and why housing association builds never exceeded 15% of private sector completions.

    So what you need to set out is the new business model and costs of building substantial new new social housing units.

    I am all ears.



  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Now that the speechifying is over, I guess I can say now that I think David Cameron missed a trick. The basic approach - to appropriate the centre ground for himself on the basis that Ed Miliband had vacated it - was correct. The content was not as good.

    If I had been David Cameron, my dismissal of Ed Miliband would have been summed up in a single sentence "the problem is not that you're Red Ed: the problem is that you're Wrong Ed". He should not be positioning this as Right vs Left, but as Right vs Wrong.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    fitalass said:
    "This was the first party conference speech where the Prime Minister was able to look directly into the lenses of the TV cameras and say with credibility the Conservatives had won the debate over the economy. People may not yet be feeling it in their pockets. The cost of living crisis remains a potent threat to David Cameron’s chances of re-election. But it is still a big – potentially defining – political moment.

    At the end David Cameron’s audience rose to acknowledge him, but the applause was largely lost amid the rafters of the cavernous Manchester Central Hall. It didn’t really matter. He had held his nerve. So had his party."

    Yup. I came away from that speech just thinking - good solid stuff, the Autumn Statement is next and that's just a month away.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Mick_Pork said:

    UKIP are None Of The Above, following the Lib Dems going into government but they're also the anti-Labour/anti-Coalition party, following to Tories going into coalition.

    Many of those who vote UKIP are motivated by either voting *against* the main three parties or are core anti-EU voters (but only about 2-3%). Godfrey Bloom is unlikely to make much impact on either group.

    True but it wasn't little Ed or Cammie who said Bloom had destroyed the UKIP conference.
    It wasn't even Heseltine. It was Farage and I don't think he was joking at the time.
    Sweating? yes, joking? nope.

    Arguably, that's borne out by the polling: no conference coverage; no movement in the figures. Considering that UKIP have polled in the high teens this year, there would have been upside movement open to them from a successful conference.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013
    This should please the PB Tories who always get it wrong.
    Rowenna ‏@RowennaDavis 52m

    Senior Labour source says the party has got 200 new members and 15,000 emails of support after Mail attacked Ralph Milband. Thanks Dacre!
    Terrible backlash indeed. ;^ )

    LOL

    As for Dacre himself, as predicted he's going nowhere just yet. Also unsurprisingly his inept yes-man and deputy Steafel looks to have been passed over for Rothermere's affections by the MoS Editor Greig who is now very well placed to replace Dacre when the time comes.
    Daily Mail editor Paul Dacre agrees new contract

    Chairman of paper's owner quashes speculation about editor's immediate future – and reveals views about possible successor

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/oct/02/daily-mail-editor-paul-dacre-new-contract?CMP=twt_fd
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Baskerville, not a party political point but I agree with your implied criticism of TV journalists who seem intent on telling us what was said rather than showing us the footage. Just one more thing wrong with the media and their coverage of politics.
  • Cameron's positioning was exactly as I expected, and is spot-on. No gimmicks, no give-aways, just a message of 'Solid progress, don't let Labour wreck it'.
  • Nice to be missed!

    Who will be most pleased with conference season?
    I know who will be least pleased and that's the LibDems, who have been pushed into irrelevance.
    For Farage, it's a step forward in being taken seriously, but a step back in terms of party image.
    Ed has made a bold pitch and will most likely be rewarded by MORI and its certainty to vote filter, but short termism won't cut it at the next election; lots of hard work on a credible programme for government is needed. He will, though, be pleased that he has gained respect as a serious politician.
    Cameron will be most pleased, I think, because he has been able to play the tough statesman, whose decisions are beginning to pay off and who can pitch for votes on 'finishing the job'. He's also forced Ed into revealing some of his hand and, with the help of the media, can now paint him as risky, a throwback and a chancer.
    fitalass said:

    Totally agree with that view. This speech was pitched at appealing to the future aspirations of those strivers and optimists, very much in the tradition of the last Conservative Governments under Thatcher. Far more positive than Miliband or Clegg's speeches in that respect. You don't post often enough these days Baskerville.

    Very Crosby-esque speech, aimed at the strivers and the optimists.
    Low on policy, high on vision, leavened with attacks painting Ed and Labour as backward-looking.
    Not his best delivery, but appeared to be aiming at statesman-like, rather than radical.
    Personally, as an optimist and believer in effort in, reward out politics, I was pleased.
    I think the softer end of the UKIP market will be impressed, if any of them saw it.
    As always, most people will only see the bits replayed by the BBC and ITV News this evening, so let's see how they play it.
    Could Shadsy offer us a bet on whether the BBC 6 O'Clock News will have more words from Nick Robinson than David Cameron?

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    I disagree, there was very positive and aspirational theme through out Cameron's speech which is going to appeal far more as the economy starts to recover after such a tough six years. This is something that neither Clegg nor Miliband captured in their speeches, austerity was the by word before the last GE, things can now start to get better for all is pitch perfect for the voters Cameron is appealing too right now. And in that regard, Miliband gave a speech which was extremely negative about the current direction of the economy.
    antifrank said:

    Now that the speechifying is over, I guess I can say now that I think David Cameron missed a trick. The basic approach - to appropriate the centre ground for himself on the basis that Ed Miliband had vacated it - was correct. The content was not as good.

    If I had been David Cameron, my dismissal of Ed Miliband would have been summed up in a single sentence "the problem is not that you're Red Ed: the problem is that you're Wrong Ed". He should not be positioning this as Right vs Left, but as Right vs Wrong.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited October 2013
    isam said:

    I think the more that Heseltine clip gets played, the stronger UKIP will get.

    What a silly old fool, the Cons should look to ease him into retirement

    One thing he gets right. At the end, he seemingly unknowingly confirms what Powell predicted would happen to have happened.

    Why does the bbc have heseltine on all of the time because they know what he's going to say about ukip,I've heard him afew times now try to plant the word racist.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Mick_Pork said:

    For those who missed it. Though it's bound to get some play amongst the media now.

    BBC Politics ‏@BBCPolitics 16m

    VIDEO: Heseltine: UKIP is a racist party http://bbc.in/1fID5DN
    I'm disappointed Mick.

    The conference season is over and you haven't commented once on whether Justine or Sam had the nicer outfit. If Fashionista Mick doesn't give us the lowdown on what's hot, who will ?

    Was Cammie's speech that bad it drove you to drink? True, it was dull, had no policies and was completely forgettable but he is a second rate Blair impersonator after all, so why should that be a surprise?

    Maybe another senior tory (aside from Cameron) calling UKIP a racist party is more likely to have sent you to the bottle? Chin up! Maybe the kippers love that sort of thing. Or maybe not.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Under FPTP, 11-12% for a party with an evenly-spread vote and no existing seats points inexorably to them winning no MPs at Westminster...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited October 2013
    @Fitilass

    "Dan Hodges in the Telegraph - Cameron looked into the cameras and said: we've won the economic argument. And it was convincing"

    I heard Rod Liddle on the radio earlier and I wondered what turned good left wing journalists into right wing ones almost overnight?

    Was it because they got rich as their London houses soared in value so they saw things from the other side of the fence? No I'm afraid the answer is much more prosaic than that.

    The newspapers that pay the big bucks are all right wing so to keep their dosh rolling in there's only one thing to do......
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Meanwhile, James Forsyth correctly identifies the Conservatives' strategy:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/10/camerons-speech-shows-he-wants-a-re-run-of-1992/

    I'm not sure, however, that "Heir to Major" has a ring about it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    AveryLP said:

    What is the net gain/loss of seats for UKIP since the May council election?

    I am sure Mr. Senior knows.

    Gained 5, Lost 3.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013

    Mick_Pork said:

    UKIP are None Of The Above, following the Lib Dems going into government but they're also the anti-Labour/anti-Coalition party, following to Tories going into coalition.

    Many of those who vote UKIP are motivated by either voting *against* the main three parties or are core anti-EU voters (but only about 2-3%). Godfrey Bloom is unlikely to make much impact on either group.

    True but it wasn't little Ed or Cammie who said Bloom had destroyed the UKIP conference.
    It wasn't even Heseltine. It was Farage and I don't think he was joking at the time.
    Sweating? yes, joking? nope.

    Arguably, that's borne out by the polling: no conference coverage; no movement in the figures. Considering that UKIP have polled in the high teens this year, there would have been upside movement open to them from a successful conference.
    Of course. You always want to achieve something from a conference. If you're in trouble you want to either stop the decline or reverse it. If you're static you want things to start moving in your direction. If you're doing well you don't want to throw it all away and start to go backwards.

    The activists have local and EU elections to fight soon enough so now is the time to get them and the party fired up or at the very least happier than they were.

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    antifrank said:

    Meanwhile, James Forsyth correctly identifies the Conservatives' strategy:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/10/camerons-speech-shows-he-wants-a-re-run-of-1992/

    I'm not sure, however, that "Heir to Major" has a ring about it.

    No. And the Tories entered the 1992 campaign with a majority of over 100 and electoral boundaries which were not as strongly biased against them as they are now. Furrthermore, despite the wishful thinking of some Tories, EdM is a very different personality from Neil Kinnock.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    isam said:

    I think the more that Heseltine clip gets played, the stronger UKIP will get.

    What a silly old fool, the Cons should look to ease him into retirement

    One thing he gets right. At the end, he seemingly unknowingly confirms what Powell predicted would happen to have happened.

    It should be worth a few more members for UKIP.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Sean_F said:

    AveryLP said:

    What is the net gain/loss of seats for UKIP since the May council election?

    I am sure Mr. Senior knows.

    Gained 5, Lost 3.

    Do you know the lid dems figures since May ?

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Something for everyone - back to two party politics with the others clawing at the window trying to attract attention. And failing (and flailing).

    EdM necessarily more animated, big ideas, we'll do this, do that, start this, stop that, and then..and then..and then.. Quite tiring in every sense. Luckily given a post-conference boost by the imbeciles at Daily Mail but much as he and most sentient beings were rightly aggrieved, he should now back off while he is at the height of his goodwill (200 new labour members seems about right).

    Cam more of a statesman, redolent of a bygone, surer age. He could have been making the broadcast in 1953 with families huddled round the wireless. No fireworks, no "he said _what?!"s. A couple of things to clear up - including the learn or earn thing but otherwise he oozed a you-can-trust-us confidence and, luckily, he has the economic figures which back him.

    Net net? Lab 37 Con 34 LD 10 UKIP 10
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Graeme Archer isn't impressed

    "...3. Classic Leftist diversionary tactics. Make an incredible amount of noise about something that's really not that important to people, and we'll ("we" = "voters") re-affirm our association between Labour and Good, while forgetting their role in the mess the country was in by 2010, the economic and cultural wasteland which they bequeathed. "OK they bolloxed up the economy, and deliberately engineered levels of immigration unknown in British history, and don't let's mention the war(s) … but they're the good guys. I liked that Tony Blair."

    Here's John Mann, some Labour MP or other, making my point on Twitter:

    -Cameron announced new work on holocaust education. He and Dacre of the Mail clearly need it first-

    The Mail runs an article, and a Labour MP attempts to associate the Prime Minister with the Holocaust? What a disgusting little Mann." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/graemearcher/100239168/the-mail-attacks-ralph-miliband-so-a-labour-mp-smears-cameron-with-the-holocaust-this-fake-outrage-is-sick/
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013
    Roger said:

    @Fitilass

    "Dan Hodges in the Telegraph

    Brevity is sometimes all that is needed to enjoy a good laugh. :D

  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited October 2013
    @anothernick

    "EdM is a very different personality from Neil Kinnock."

    It's early days but I think Mike might have been more correct about Ed than the rest of us. He definitely seems to be metamorphosing from a ten stone weakling into Superman.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    edited October 2013
    So what were the final bingo words? I spotted 'Thatcher', 'Boris', 'Red Ed' and 'HS2'. Any others? I think we missed 'Hard working families' repeatedly and got 'tough decisions' instead of 'tough choices'.

    EDIT: But I missed the start of the speech. Did he have a bit on Syria or something I missed?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Plato said:

    The Mail runs an article, and a Labour MP attempts to associate the Prime Minister with the Holocaust? What a disgusting little Mann.

    Next thing you know he'll be calling UKIP a racist party. Oh that's right, job done Cammie and Heseltine.

    *chortle*

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    edited October 2013
    test
  • Major's pitch was quite different.
    Cameron is saying: "Give me five more years to sort out Labour's mess and I'll give you the good times."
    Major was saying:"Give me four more years. We've sorted out Labour's mess, now I need a term to sort out Maggie's mess before Labour get to enjoy the good times."

    antifrank said:

    Meanwhile, James Forsyth correctly identifies the Conservatives' strategy:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/10/camerons-speech-shows-he-wants-a-re-run-of-1992/

    I'm not sure, however, that "Heir to Major" has a ring about it.

    No. And the Tories entered the 1992 campaign with a majority of over 100 and electoral boundaries which were not as strongly biased against them as they are now. Furrthermore, despite the wishful thinking of some Tories, EdM is a very different personality from Neil Kinnock.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    edited October 2013
    test
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    edited October 2013
    Missed the speech, but a friend sent me this.

    "I watched the whole thing and i am wandering around like a zombie possessed. It's the Tory bromides - wall-to-wall throughout the speech. For a moment I thought he was computer-generated. But maybe I was nodding off.

    "From time to time Cameron's face would darken and he would lob insults at the opposition. Not witty, not funny - using expressions like 'you lot' - derogatory and brimming with contempt. And in the same breath, talking about equality and opportunity. The subtext for me read, equality and opportunity for the Tory set and damn the rest.

    "My guess is it's a speech aimed at young couples with 2.5 children who are hankering to buy a whacking great ghastly brown executive home in a provincial English town ... judging by the up-and-coming young Tories in the crowd, they are largely very straight, dull, pince-nez types with no sense of fun and no sense of irreverance that makes England great.

    "I think Cameron is concerned especially about those borderline Tories - Thatcher's children, young couples who don't live in London but have high hopes for themselves and their children, self-obsessed, out for themselves, without any social idealism to speak of. They've read Steve Jobs, not George Orwell. Notice there was no talk about pensions or care homes, which were big news stories this past year - with shocking reports of neglect and abuse. These Tories couldn't give a toss about people as they get older - and poorer - and figure they get what they deserve.

    "For now, they just want their children to get into the best schools and drive their own Jaguars. Sigh. Personally I think Cameron's concerned about securing younger Tory voters - having the older ones in the bag. Of course he doesn't want to lose any of the older, grouchier ones leaning towards UKIP, but now they are trying to say that voting for UKIP is a vote for Labour (Heseltine).

    "I have the feeling that Cameron didn't win over anyone and the speech didn't change much. He is is sort of holding the fort defensively with this party speech. As for Sam Cam's child-like clasping of Cameron's hand, practically swinging it like a child in Mary Janes, her gormless smile holding the crowd of Tories in rapture - oh well. Personally, I prefer Hannah Arendt, but that's me.

    "From a betting point of view .... I think Cameron's speech won't make any waves and won't be game-changing at all."

    Fairy nuff?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Mr. Baskerville, not a party political point but I agree with your implied criticism of TV journalists who seem intent on telling us what was said rather than showing us the footage. Just one more thing wrong with the media and their coverage of politics.

    In general I'd agree with you, but to play Devil's advocate, in the age of the internet anyone who wants to see the speech in its entirety can easily do so. If they are watching BBC News it is because they want a short summary rather than the full one hour speech, or they want the [supposed] value added from the BBC talking head.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013
    Sean_F said:

    AveryLP said:

    What is the net gain/loss of seats for UKIP since the May council election?

    I am sure Mr. Senior knows.

    Gained 5, Lost 3.

    Better than I had thought, but still indicative of an ebbing tide.

    It is the accumulation and repetition of near misses which will depress the vote share.

    Although I did note a recent Canterbury win, so Kent appears still to be receptive to the kipper cause.

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    Roger said:

    @anothernick

    "EdM is a very different personality from Neil Kinnock."

    It's early days but I think Mike might have been more correct about Ed than the rest of us. He definitely seems to be metamorphosing from a ten stone weakling into Superman.

    I don't know about superman but I do think the Tories and many commentators have made a mistake in writing him off as hopeless and not worthy of a second look. This has had the effect of lowering the bar so that when he delivers a successful speech and announces a policy (energy price freeze) that is hardly revolutionary or unprecedented everyone appears to be bowled over by his brilliance and unable to form a coherent response! Had they not been so contemptuous of his alleged weakness and indecisiveness before it would be easier for them to frame an argument about him being a dangerous revolutionary now.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    "From a betting point of view .... I think Cameron's speech won't make any waves and won't be game-changing at all."

    Fairy nuff?

    It certainly wasn't a game changer of a speech. Not even close. Defensive? Holding pattern? Yes, that seems fair but considering just how on the ropes and hopeless little Ed was over the summer that's a pretty damn remarkable turn of events. The tory spinners can't pretend this was what they wanted or expected. Nobody will believe that.

  • Mick_Pork said:

    The tory spinners can't pretend this was what they wanted or expected. Nobody will believe that.

    Really?

    If I was advising the Tories, I'd recommend no freebies and no direct response [to Ed's energy gimmick]. Labour are (sensibly enough) trying to move the debate away from the deficit, the cuts and the mess they left - a debate they've lost - on to different ground where they can make populist gestures (although as I said last night, why the hell couldn't they find something less damaging to make a populist gesture on?). This is best ignored IMO, except to use it as further evidence that Labour are nowhere near being a serious party of government again. The Conservatives should keep the debate firmly on the ground where they have a big advantage. So, my response would be to emphasise that the tough choices are working, the job is not yet finished, and 'Don't let them wreck it again'.

    The last thing they should do is get into a competition of give-aways.

    RichardNabavi, September 26
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    EdM delivering dull, uninspiring speech= Disaster for Miliband!

    Dave delivering dull, uninspiring speech= Triumph for Cameron!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Sean_F said:

    AveryLP said:

    What is the net gain/loss of seats for UKIP since the May council election?

    I am sure Mr. Senior knows.

    Gained 5, Lost 3.

    Do you know the lid dems figures since May ?

    4 gains 6 losses
  • NextNext Posts: 826

    Roger said:

    @anothernick

    "EdM is a very different personality from Neil Kinnock."

    It's early days but I think Mike might have been more correct about Ed than the rest of us. He definitely seems to be metamorphosing from a ten stone weakling into Superman.

    I don't know about superman but I do think the Tories and many commentators have made a mistake in writing him off as hopeless and not worthy of a second look. This has had the effect of lowering the bar so that when he delivers a successful speech and announces a policy (energy price freeze) that is hardly revolutionary or unprecedented everyone appears to be bowled over by his brilliance and unable to form a coherent response! Had they not been so contemptuous of his alleged weakness and indecisiveness before it would be easier for them to frame an argument about him being a dangerous revolutionary now.
    The energy price freeze is not a good policy; it is bonkers. You can read up in various places why. The full effects will end up being debated as we approach 2015.

    Miliband has, if anything, underperformed his already low bar.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    EdM delivering dull, uninspiring speech= Disaster for Miliband!

    Dave delivering dull, uninspiring speech= Triumph for Cameron!

    Bloggers thinking speeches change anything = idiots.
  • She knows that government policy is to force hardworking families or the disabled out of their council houses to make way for her. Such are the glories of the bedroom tax.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013

    Mick_Pork said:

    The tory spinners can't pretend this was what they wanted or expected. Nobody will believe that.

    Really?

    If I was advising the Tories, I'd recommend no freebies and no direct response [to Ed's energy gimmick]. Labour are (sensibly enough) trying to move the debate away from the deficit, the cuts and the mess they left - a debate they've lost - on to different ground where they can make populist gestures (although as I said last night, why the hell couldn't they find something less damaging to make a populist gesture on?). This is best ignored IMO, except to use it as further evidence that Labour are nowhere near being a serious party of government again. The Conservatives should keep the debate firmly on the ground where they have a big advantage. So, my response would be to emphasise that the tough choices are working, the job is not yet finished, and 'Don't let them wreck it again'.

    The last thing they should do is get into a competition of give-aways.

    RichardNabavi, September 26

    So you expected little Ed to bomb hopelessly in the summer and then grab the initiative back and put Cammie on the defensive culminating with the amusing sight of Cameron backing little Ed by agreeing with him on decrying Dacre and his moronic smearing.


    Your predictive powers are indeed awe inspiring.

    Link? :)

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    EdM delivering dull, uninspiring speech= Disaster for Miliband!

    Dave delivering dull, uninspiring speech= Triumph for Cameron!

    Miliband won the party conference season,with yougov back to 10 point lead.

    Another policy that could hurt the tories if this isn't worked out properly.

    David Cameron suggests cutting benefits for under-25s

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24369514



  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2013

    She knows that government policy is to force hardworking families or the disabled out of their council houses to make way for her..
    You really think she's that clever?

    I'd be surprised if she had the faintest idea about the Spare Room Subsidy.

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    Next said:



    The energy price freeze is not a good policy; it is bonkers.

    For energy companies perhaps, but I respectfully suggest that the majority of voters will not agree with you on this one.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Next said:



    The energy price freeze is not a good policy; it is bonkers.

    For energy companies perhaps, but I respectfully suggest that the majority of voters will not agree with you on this one.
    Just like the tories with cutting benefits for U25's,I hope by the GE,labour have this policy worked out properly or look silly if any U-turns.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited October 2013

    She knows that government policy is to force hardworking families or the disabled out of their council houses to make way for her..
    You really think she's that clever?

    I'd be surprised if she had the faintest idea about the Spare Room Subsidy.

    She does not need to know. She will apply for accommodation and it will be supplied. That is, once the disabled person or the hardworking family has been kicked out. The bedroom tax encourages the feckless to breed children.

  • NextNext Posts: 826

    Next said:



    The energy price freeze is not a good policy; it is bonkers.

    For energy companies perhaps, but I respectfully suggest that the majority of voters will not agree with you on this one.
    If it was that easy, then I suggest houses are a far higher cost for most people.

    How about Labour introduce legislation that halves the price that all houses are sold for.

    Think that will work too?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Next said:



    The energy price freeze is not a good policy; it is bonkers.

    For energy companies perhaps, but I respectfully suggest that the majority of voters will not agree with you on this one.
    Just like the tories with cutting benefits for U25's,I hope by the GE,labour have this policy worked out properly or look silly if any U-turns.

    Very clever from miliband though,when energy companies keep putting prices up,it's only going to help him and labour.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,528

    Next said:



    The energy price freeze is not a good policy; it is bonkers.

    For energy companies perhaps, but I respectfully suggest that the majority of voters will not agree with you on this one.
    They will think it's bonkers when they understand that the energy companies' profits are in line with, say, Tescos, and that there was already a large risk of brownouts / blackouts.

    A risk that was largely created when Labour were in power, and Ed Miliband increased when he was at DECC.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    EdM delivering dull, uninspiring speech= Disaster for Miliband!

    Dave delivering dull, uninspiring speech= Triumph for Cameron!

    Bloggers thinking speeches change anything = idiots.
    Honestly I think Ed Miliband has the same problem. He seems to think making a speech about something is enough. So do most politicians of all colours. Very few actually do anything.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    A reminder for those 'mystic megs' who unaccountably seem to have forgotten that we've known for years that the 2015 election would be about cost of living/don't let labour wreck it again. There's nothing original or inspiring about either well worn argument.
    12:04PM BST 04 May 2004

    Labour and the Conservatives have launched their campaigns for next month's local and European elections.

    Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, joined forces to stress Labour's economic record, warning voters not to let the Tories "wreck it again".

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1460967/Labour-and-Tories-launch-battle-for-votes.html

    So it's all going to boil down to trust.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    She knows that government policy is to force hardworking families or the disabled out of their council houses to make way for her..
    You really think she's that clever?

    I'd be surprised if she had the faintest idea about the Spare Room Subsidy.

    She does not need to know. She will apply for accommodation and it will be supplied. That is, once the disabled person or the hardworking family has been kicked out. The bedroom tax encourages the feckless to breed children.

    'She does not need to know.'

    And yet in your previous post you state -

    'She knows that government policy...'

    Which is it?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Surely the Godfrey Bloom affair has registered in a missed opportunity? If Farage had delivered a typically popular speech and no scandals occurred they could have had a nice bump from their conference?
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    The last thing they should do is get into a competition of give-aways.

    RichardNabavi, September 26


    That marriage tax thing doesn't count then?

    No, it's allowing a small proportion of the less well-off who haven't benefited fully from the huge increases in personal allowances to keep a little bit more of their hard-earned money.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "Extraordinary to think that, as recently as a hundred years ago, the average Anglosphere household gave just 12% of its income to the state."

    twitter.com/DanHannanMEP/status/385321733559189505
  • She knows that government policy is to force hardworking families or the disabled out of their council houses to make way for her..
    You really think she's that clever?

    I'd be surprised if she had the faintest idea about the Spare Room Subsidy.

    She does not need to know. She will apply for accommodation and it will be supplied. That is, once the disabled person or the hardworking family has been kicked out. The bedroom tax encourages the feckless to breed children.

    'She does not need to know.'

    And yet in your previous post you state -

    'She knows that government policy...'

    Which is it?

    She does not need to know, but no doubt she does: she is clearly someone who knows how to manipulate the system. Maybe if she carries on breeding someone else can be kicked out of their home to accommodate her. I am sure she is planning it already. She loves the bedroom tax.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    tim said:

    The last thing they should do is get into a competition of give-aways.

    RichardNabavi, September 26


    That marriage tax thing doesn't count then?

    No, it's allowing a small proportion of the less well-off who haven't benefited fully from the huge increases in personal allowances to keep a little bit more of their hard-earned money.
    What about the panicked speeding up of 'help to buy' before any non-state owned banks had even signed up to it?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Quincel said:

    Surely the Godfrey Bloom affair has registered in a missed opportunity? If Farage had delivered a typically popular speech and no scandals occurred they could have had a nice bump from their conference?

    They announced a new high in membership just after the conference.

    twitter.com/UKIP/status/382961966861807616
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    MaxPB said:

    EdM delivering dull, uninspiring speech= Disaster for Miliband!

    Dave delivering dull, uninspiring speech= Triumph for Cameron!

    Bloggers thinking speeches change anything = idiots.
    Honestly I think Ed Miliband has the same problem. He seems to think making a speech about something is enough. So do most politicians of all colours. Very few actually do anything.

    To be fair to Miliband his speech this year determined what the Tory conference was about, and his fracas with the Mail has dominated coverage during the Tory conference.
    Agree with it or not you can't dispute that.
    On your first point, I imagine the Tories are more than happy that Miliband has chosen to abandon the centre ground, so it's in their interests to capitalise on that this week. Smart move.

    However, the Mail's idiocy has been a distraction from the conference - few Tories will be happy with that.

    The caravan moves on...next 'big one' is 3Q later this month (I think) and an 'interesting' Autumn Statement. That's when more (small) shifts in opinion might be expected....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited October 2013
    Cutting benefits for under 25s is an interesting one. Obviously, we won't hear the Tories telling young people to go to find work where the jobs are. Those in depressed areas will be stuck in them. Good news for immigrants though as they'll be less competition for work in the active areas.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited October 2013
    Al-Beeb reporting that Tom Clancy has died.... :(

    Queue more spamming from Dr. P.....
  • Neil said:

    What about the panicked speeding up of 'help to buy' before any non-state owned banks had even signed up to it?

    Ah, I expect that's tim's doing. Much less risk of it causing overheating in the housing market if you do it now, when transaction volumes remain low and price increases are still below inflation in most of the country.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    tim said:

    The last thing they should do is get into a competition of give-aways.

    RichardNabavi, September 26


    That marriage tax thing doesn't count then?

    No, it's allowing a small proportion of the less well-off who haven't benefited fully from the huge increases in personal allowances to keep a little bit more of their hard-earned money.

    Its a giveaway to balance the Lib Dems school dinners giveaway.

    Anyway, who cares, Osborne is going to spend more than Labour did,and spending is rising, while you cheer on the unfunded giveaways.
    What's your thoughts on the tories suggesting cutting benefits for the U25's ?

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    tim said:

    The last thing they should do is get into a competition of give-aways.

    RichardNabavi, September 26


    That marriage tax thing doesn't count then?

    No, it's allowing a small proportion of the less well-off who haven't benefited fully from the huge increases in personal allowances to keep a little bit more of their hard-earned money.

    Its a giveaway to balance the Lib Dems school dinners giveaway.

    Anyway, who cares, Osborne is going to spend more than Labour did,and spending is rising, while you cheer on the unfunded giveaways.
    well of course it is, and the daft thing is Labour having run out of road on the economic arguments switched to cost of living. It's another battle ground Labour can only lose on.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited October 2013
    Tom Clancy has died aged just 66. What a shame. He brought drama to the closing years of the Cold War.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-24372224
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Author Tom Clancy as died.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited October 2013
    What Miliband has tapped into is the very strong feeling amongst the public that they are being taken for a ride. The feeling that modern society is essentially an enormous fleecing operation with them as the mark in every case.

    The people cited as doing the taking are many and varied. Big companies, energy firms, railway networks, senior civil servants, Bankers, benefit cheats, charity bosses, Union leaders, politicians of all stripes, estate agents, the EU, councils, the beneficiaries of foreign aid, the tax man, oil companies and many more.

    There's a big electoral dividend for anybody who can squeeze the above.
  • Next said:



    The energy price freeze is not a good policy; it is bonkers.

    For energy companies perhaps, but I respectfully suggest that the majority of voters will not agree with you on this one.
    They will think it's bonkers when they understand that the energy companies' profits are in line with, say, Tescos, and that there was already a large risk of brownouts / blackouts.

    A risk that was largely created when Labour were in power, and Ed Miliband increased when he was at DECC.
    I doubt it, I'm afraid. One thing I have learnt is that people will always say 'not my fault, guv' for anything. Offer them free electricity and they'll vote for it. Watch the power companies go bust, and then tell everyone it isn't your fault.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Roger said:
    Unfortunately for them the preferred candidate of one of their columnists didnt get so close in France last year. Le Pen lost.

    "Marine Le Pen remains, among an imperfect choice in urgent times, the only candidate capable of saving France’s control over her finances, borders, and identity."

  • Cutting benefits for under 25s is an interesting one. Obviously, we won't hear the Tories telling young people to go to find work where the jobs are. Those in depressed areas will be stuck in them. Good news for immigrants though as they'll be less competition for work in the active areas.

    Would you allow your kids to fall into a lifestyle of neither working nor studying at that age, Southam?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ed won the week - but as always his short termism will be his undoing.

    Another conference goes by with no overarching vision other than a few stupid bribes.

    He's not making a serious pitch to run the country - and his time is running out.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,528
    Off-topic:

    The last remnant of British Rail came to an end a few days ago, with the abolition of BRB (Residuary). BRB was the body that held all the remaining non-privatised elements of the old British Rail Board, including a fair amount of land.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/brb-residuary-ltd-has-been-abolished
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    The last thing they should do is get into a competition of give-aways.

    RichardNabavi, September 26


    That marriage tax thing doesn't count then?

    Obviously not. There's always an excuse for hypocrisy. Osbrowne using taxpayers money to subsidise mortgages up to £600,000 is fine but if anyone else did it, instant PB Tory hysteria!

    Nabavi also seems to think that the tories wanted and expected the conference season to go like this after Ed's hopeless summer. Good luck getting anyone to believe that laughable spin.
  • Missed the speech, but a friend sent me this.

    "I watched the whole thing and i am wandering around like a zombie possessed. It's the Tory bromides - wall-to-wall throughout the speech. For a moment I thought he was computer-generated. But maybe I was nodding off.

    Etc. etc, etc.

    "From a betting point of view .... I think Cameron's speech won't make any waves and won't be game-changing at all."

    Fairy nuff?

    Peter - that message from a friend wouldn't be of a socialist persuasion by any chance would he/she ?

  • taffys said:

    What Miliband has tapped into is the very strong feeling amongst the public that they are being taken for a ride. The feeling that modern society is essentially an enormous fleecing operation with them as the mark in every case.

    The people cited as doing the taking are many and varied. Big companies, energy firms, railway networks, senior civil servants, Bankers, benefit cheats, charity bosses, Union leaders, politicians of all stripes, estate agents, the EU, councils, the beneficiaries of foreign aid, the tax man, oil companies and many more.

    There's a big electoral dividend for anybody who can squeeze the above.

    The flaw in that argument is that you have to try to govern afterwards.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    What about the panicked speeding up of 'help to buy' before any non-state owned banks had even signed up to it?

    Ah, I expect that's tim's doing. Much less risk of it causing overheating in the housing market if you do it now, when transaction volumes remain low and price increases are still below inflation in most of the country.
    It still comes into effect from January. It's just you can apply earlier. If any non-state owned banks can be convinced it isnt a potential disaster. What is the exit strategy?!
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited October 2013
    Neil said:

    What is the exit strategy?!

    Switch it off when it's no longer needed.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Why does no party give practical help for youngsters (or indeed oldsters) to move around the country from economically deprived areas to areas with better job prospects?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    taffys said:

    What Miliband has tapped into is the very strong feeling amongst the public that they are being taken for a ride. The feeling that modern society is essentially an enormous fleecing operation with them as the mark in every case.

    The people cited as doing the taking are many and varied. Big companies, energy firms, railway networks, senior civil servants, Bankers, benefit cheats, charity bosses, Union leaders, politicians of all stripes, estate agents, the EU, councils, the beneficiaries of foreign aid, the tax man, oil companies and many more.

    There's a big electoral dividend for anybody who can squeeze the above.

    The flaw in that argument is that you have to try to govern afterwards.
    Whereas the flaw in your argument is that Cameron already tried that type of populism and failed.
    Millions of households will see a fall in their gas and electricity bills after David Cameron said he will force energy companies to give every customer the cheapest possible deal.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/consumertips/household-bills/9616124/Millions-to-see-energy-bills-fall-after-David-Cameron-promises-tariff-reform.html
  • Cutting benefits for under 25s is an interesting one. Obviously, we won't hear the Tories telling young people to go to find work where the jobs are. Those in depressed areas will be stuck in them. Good news for immigrants though as they'll be less competition for work in the active areas.

    Would you allow your kids to fall into a lifestyle of neither working nor studying at that age, Southam?

    I have little control over my adult children. I would expect them to look for work and to take it if they found it. And I have no doubt they would do that. But it may mean moving to another part of the country. If they do that now, they will get government support. I am well off, but I am not in position to pay for any of them to rent somewhere in London, say, and also to feed themselves, pay their bills and so on. My guess is that the vast majority if parents with adult children under 25 are in the same boat.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    @Tyke

    380,000 people age under 25 claim housing benefit
    204,000 (53%) have dependent children
    At least 17% (66,000) of 18-24 year olds claiming housing benefit are also working
    28,000 (7%) are sick or disabled and claiming ESA
    Around a quarter are jobseekers (99,000)
    45% of 18-24 year olds on JSA find a job within three months and 64% within 6 months


    Are they briefing anything specific?

    Just from the bbc,a source close to Osborne as said the main one is housing benefit but others could be touched.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013

    Next said:



    The energy price freeze is not a good policy; it is bonkers.

    For energy companies perhaps, but I respectfully suggest that the majority of voters will not agree with you on this one.
    A few threads ago, Southam Observer, made a quip about not asking too deeply about how Roman Abramovich made his money, implying that it may not have been entirely the product of honest, hard work.

    But the truth of the matter is that Abramovich, like almost all the Russian oligarchs, made their money very simply as a result of the imposition of price controls on the Soviet Union's petrochemical, metals and mineral extraction industries.

    Seventy years of socialist central planning had led to fuel, energy and home produced commodities being priced by central diktat from Moscow without any reference to global market prices or the true costs of production.

    Price controls were coupled with currency controls. The Ruble was not convertible and its value was officially fixed at parity with the US Dollar. Unofficially, however, one US Dollar bought around 100 Rubles.

    Now because the price controls and currency exchange controls resulted in wholly artificial domestic and international prices, the link with investment returns was lost. In fact all investment was done on a centrally planned basis with little regard for conventional returns. Funds did not follow opportunities, which meant there was under-investment in production, low capacity utilisation and horrificly low productivity.

    [to be continued ...]

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    TGOHF said:

    Ed won the week - but as always his short termism will be his undoing.

    Another conference goes by with no overarching vision other than a few stupid bribes.

    He's not making a serious pitch to run the country - and his time is running out.

    spot on.
This discussion has been closed.