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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time YouGov finds more supporting a second referendum than opposing
For first-time YouGov in poll for the Times finds more voters wanting a second referendum then not pic.twitter.com/tPb5OlFUNQ
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What happened to the old thread?
And just like Brexit - no one will actually explain how this can work (in the time remaining)....
Majority now back a second referendum on Brexit terms
Body text more accurate:
The proportion of voters who favour a second Brexit referendum has overtaken those who do not for the first time, a YouGov poll for The Times shows.
Voters have not changed sides over the question of EU membership in significant enough numbers to be sure that the result would be different from 2016, however.
i think you'l find that the terminology I've used in my Tweets and this post is accurate.
That don't know figure looks stable, which suggests it is actually people switching which is interesting.
So, I don’t yet support one.
Unstoppable? More like unspoofable.
There is only one circumstance where there would be another referendum: where the public are overwhelmingly in favour, and specifically, where support for leaving the EU has collapsed. This would be the point at which the Conservative Party would inflict more damage on itself by sticking with Brexit than using a referendum to renege.
We are not at that point. We are nowhere near that point. It is unlikely we will get to that point. But it is, I grant, possible.
@Dura_Ace
The problem is I'm not sure why a Tory party that can't agree on anything would agree on a referendum that many of them would find an even more disagreeable option than the other options they can't agree on though, let alone a GE. Considering the FTPA and some MPs strong views on Brexit the Tories would have to be in some real chaos for it to happen IMO.
@rkrkrk
The government's inability is probably the driving factor, if the Tories had taken charge after the vote and drove through a deal which had enough support in parliament there couldn't be any complaints outside of the talented salesman and spin lines or the spending outside the rules which aren't going to convince enough of the public when added to those who always wanted to refuse the result.
I note that, on the leave-remain question, there has essentially been limited movement (it’s 45-42 Remain-Leave). It would be a shame if Remainers were to conflate support for a second referendum on the terms of Brexit with support for a second referendum in which the option to Remain is offered back to the electorate. The two are not necessarily synonymous.
Beg to be let back in with or without Dave's Mega Deal.
May's Chequers minus-minus-minus shit sandwich if available from Barnier which it probably isn't.
Go and fuck yourself WTO.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/26/cohen-trump-tower-meeting-russians-745123
Of course Cohen is about as credible a witness as Trump, so this will require corroboration.
Such a vote would be even more bitter and divisive than the last one, but bitterness and division are on the cards anyway.
Dr. Foxy, in that scenario, there needs to be another option, of course. The way things are going a Leave (without a deal)/Remain choice seems likeliest, should there be another referendum.
Of course, the SNP will then insist on having one too.
Next.
After all, the fundamentals haven’t changed much and the Leave-Remain divide hasn’t really shifted. It’s not as if a lot more people have suddenly become hostile to Brexit and now want to reverse it via a second referendum - if that were the case then the Leave-Remain split would surely have changed too.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-44968381
I can foresee this being an absolute car crash.
Stopping Brexit requires Leave voters to change their minds. I don't know a single prominent Leaver who has done so and precious few non prominent ones. The undeniable problems somehow don't have anything to do with the Brexit proposition. It's all down to EU wilfulness, Remainer sabotage and May's incompetence.
The legislation needs to be drafted, debated, and pass through both houses of Parliament to become law. Then, a campaign period needs to be held with official campaigns on either side. And if it’s done on any different basis from the original referendum it won’t be seen as legitimate.
Quite aside from the overwhelmingly tight timescales to do all that - achieve a deal with the EU, enact the legislation and put it to a public vote - I don’t see where the votes would come from for it in Parliament. The present administration couldn’t carry it, and it would lead to the collapse of May’s Government.
However, on the second, far too manny Remainers refuse to see any flaws at all in the intransigence of the EU negotiating position, and some even goad them on to use the hardest and most brutal tactics possible. That doesn’t create much goodwill for a rethink.
Wah, wah, it's not fair, the EU won't roll over for us...
Hammond's Autumn budget is going to be interesting, to see whether the promised increased funding is just smoke and mirrors.
At the moment, if these polls are accurate (!) it would need at least three parties to form a majority of any sort. I don't believe that's happened since before 1832.
The only question is whether the May government collapses before or after No Deal Brexit. It looks increasingly unlikely that May will be able to pull off abject surrender BINO.
I just can't help but feel relying on non-voters to (a) vote and (b) vote the way you want them to is a courageous strategy.
In my experience the epic shambles negotiations have become has if anything hardened attitudes towards the EU among Leave voters. A second vote would probably confirm them in their views that the EU really doesn't care about democracy or ordinary people (which is of course true, but would be ironic if it was our government trying to hold it and the EU snarling impatiently hat we haven't time).
Then people wonder why teachers are leaving the profession....
Very few Remainers seem to have notice or commented on the fact they only have a 3% lead (on the same polling) for winning a 2nd referendum, and could easily lose it again given the day of poll numbers last time had similar numbers, up to a 10% Remain lead.
Perhaps they don’t care, but all the vessels in the world wouldn’t be able to absorb the tears if it went ‘wrong’ a second time, and they would very probably be just as likely to refuse to accept the result as they are now.
It is also worth noting however that while there were very major splits they did not lead to the creation of any lasting new parties. Instead, groups realigned within the existing structures.
1940 was the most special of special cases.
(Yes, I know that's not where the phrase comes from. But it's still a terrific pun.)
Private probation companies to have contracts ended early
Bailout totalling £500m criticised as justice secretary consults on new scheme
"We hope that this issue between the RCN and its membership can be resolved quickly, and we would direct colleagues towards the information on our website, which makes clear the pay journeys for different staff over the next three years."
You cling to the idea of British exceptionalism in desperation.
https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1022511300545536000
Five dead as minibus and 4x4 crash on A96 in Moray
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-44977752
And a very strange and tragic one indeed:
Ellie Soutter: British snowboarder dies on 18th birthday
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/winter-sports/44971634
It mostly relies on confirmation bias as Remainers really really want there to be a clear majority out there that allows them to overtake the Leave block.
I am counting the days now before voting with my feet.
Dickaid.
I agree that opinion needs to shift further before it becomes a viable proposition. But the trend is always our friend. Labour's formal change of heart will be a key moment. The pressure is then on May.
The question for the government will be whether they want to press on (without explicit public endorsement) once the downsides of Brexit become clear and the purported benefits found to be as elusive as Iraqi WMD? Especially if the political consequences of their doing so start to rise out of the mist.
That we are not there yet does not mean that things cannot shift significantly in that direction. The amount of talk about it, including from significant politicians, now, compared to then, is telling.
I respect democracy.
You are a populist.
He panders to the so-called will of the people.
The London point is fascinating. The very fact that the rest of England voted the other way doesn't seem to matter, and the lack of concern Lammy and certain others have for that may well go a long way to explaining why they voted the other way.
https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1022396551069687808
Perhaps they agree with Stuart Rose that pay rises are not necessarily a good thing.
One problem that high performing sportspeople is that careers can peak very early. Then what?
I have seen a bit of it with patients from the national teams in Loughborough.
Being the least small minority’s not great for national unity but on the upside it’s better than implementing the wishes of an even smaller minority.
Also, remind me how many races Toro Rosso have won?
' "Extreme and prolonged" high temperatures are being blamed for cross-Channel rail passenger facing more disruption.
Eurotunnel is warning of delays of about two-and-a-half hours at its terminal near Folkestone in Kent.
On Thursday there were reported hold-ups of more than five hours in 30C heat, caused by air conditioning problems on Eurotunnel's trains.
The company says there are no tickets available for travel on Friday. '
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-44977934
We all like to think we're nobler than the other side and that, coupled with the fact that Leave won (so whatever they say won't change the result) and that saying "yes" acts to deprive the other side of legitimacy means that there's an overwhelming subconscious bias pushing towards "yes, of course"
Farage, of course, was on record before the vote as saying that a 52:48 loss was no grounds to stop pushing for another referendum. There was also the amusing irony that the original online petition for another referendum was set up by a Leaver shortly before the result became known because he thought they were going to lose
And as for 2REF not only would it solve nothing but I can't see the practicalities of timing, question*, and implementation.
* @Dura_Ace's accurate template aside.
The idea that Brexiteers are arguing that staying in the SM and CU are not Brexit now, whilst arguing for staying in during the campaign is another absurdity.
No one expects any improvement in the public services, either in terms of pay and coditions or in service delivery to the great British public. We are already engaged in our winter crisis planning in my Trust, which is doing unusually well (treading water rather than drowning) financially.
In modern Britain we have grown used to a diminished future and cut our expectations accordingly.
Brace yourselves, you can either be an Orc or you can be part of the charge.
Quite simply if there’s no referendum and Brexit is sub optimal the voters will vote for a party pledging to take us back in.
There is minimal enthusiasm for that policy.
I’m sure they’ll agree if it opens the possibility of us Remaining.