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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The other upcoming leadership contest – Who will replace Jerem

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    AUSTRIAN Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has called on Brussels to “find a way” to offer Britain a post-Brexit deal which will keep the UK’s relationship with the Continent as strong as possible.

    Helpful. We all know how much the Commission loves Austria, perhaps May will get Duda to put a word in for us next.
    I love the way people interpret such comments as being supportive of the British position. The Commission has already "found a way" to keep the UK relationship close - it consists of humiliating the Brexiteers.
    William, have you ever been a member of the Tory party?
    It's more I think that he doesn't get sarcasm or irony.
    I don't get it? It's my sarcasm that you consistently fail to interpret.
    Of course it is, William. :smile:
    You completely flipped your lid about claiming Churchill as a Europhile and refused to acknowledge the slightest nuance about what his position in the present day would have been. I don't think you're in any position to give lectures on this point.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    AUSTRIAN Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has called on Brussels to “find a way” to offer Britain a post-Brexit deal which will keep the UK’s relationship with the Continent as strong as possible.

    Helpful. We all know how much the Commission loves Austria, perhaps May will get Duda to put a word in for us next.
    I love the way people interpret such comments as being supportive of the British position. The Commission has already "found a way" to keep the UK relationship close - it consists of humiliating the Brexiteers.
    It's one heck of a gamble, and I think risks making no deal more likely than not.

    Even if the Commission wins, it will lose, because it will have a sullen, divided and resentful Britain perpetually unsatisfied with its relationship and disruptive.

    The UK won't simply fall into line and forget all about it, like Selmayr seems to (very naively) think it will.
    Interesting piece here on how BoJo has saved the EU:

    https://on.ft.com/2LtNnxX
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    edited July 2018

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    AUSTRIAN Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has called on Brussels to “find a way” to offer Britain a post-Brexit deal which will keep the UK’s relationship with the Continent as strong as possible.

    Helpful. We all know how much the Commission loves Austria, perhaps May will get Duda to put a word in for us next.
    I love the way people interpret such comments as being supportive of the British position. The Commission has already "found a way" to keep the UK relationship close - it consists of humiliating the Brexiteers.
    It's one heck of a gamble, and I think risks making no deal more likely than not.

    Even if the Commission wins, it will lose, because it will have a sullen, divided and resentful Britain perpetually unsatisfied with its relationship and disruptive.

    The UK won't simply fall into line and forget all about it, like Selmayr seems to (very naively) think it will.
    You admitted yourself that you didn't expect Brexit to be so divisive and you naively expected the country to swing behind it after the referendum. So far Selmayr is winning, much as it must pain you.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    AUSTRIAN Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has called on Brussels to “find a way” to offer Britain a post-Brexit deal which will keep the UK’s relationship with the Continent as strong as possible.

    Helpful. We all know how much the Commission loves Austria, perhaps May will get Duda to put a word in for us next.
    I love the way people interpret such comments as being supportive of the British position. The Commission has already "found a way" to keep the UK relationship close - it consists of humiliating the Brexiteers.
    It's one heck of a gamble, and I think risks making no deal more likely than not.

    Even if the Commission wins, it will lose, because it will have a sullen, divided and resentful Britain perpetually unsatisfied with its relationship and disruptive.

    The UK won't simply fall into line and forget all about it, like Selmayr seems to (very naively) think it will.
    You admitted yourself that you didn't expect Brexit to be so divisive and you naively expected the country to swing behind Brexit. So far Selmayr is winning, much as it must pain you.
    Did you expect Remain to win? As if you did it hasn't dented your confidence that in a second referendum it would win again. You described that outcome as highly likely.

    None of us allow being wrong before to compromise our ability to confidently predict future events. It's why we'd make good pundits.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    AUSTRIAN Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has called on Brussels to “find a way” to offer Britain a post-Brexit deal which will keep the UK’s relationship with the Continent as strong as possible.

    Helpful. We all know how much the Commission loves Austria, perhaps May will get Duda to put a word in for us next.
    I love the way people interpret such comments as being supportive of the British position. The Commission has already "found a way" to keep the UK relationship close - it consists of humiliating the Brexiteers.
    William, have you ever been a member of the Tory party?
    It's more I think that he doesn't get sarcasm or irony.
    I don't get it? It's my sarcasm that you consistently fail to interpret.
    Of course it is, William. :smile:
    You completely flipped your lid about claiming Churchill as a Europhile and refused to acknowledge the slightest nuance about what his position in the present day would have been. I don't think you're in any position to give lectures on this point.
    At the moment I'm reclining on the settee. Is this a good position to give a lecture? I gave most of mine standing up as I recall.

    (And what I actually did, flippancy aside, was point out that you were misquoting him and point you to what he had actually said. That's hardly 'flipping my lid.' If you want to see me getting really angry, you should see me duffing up Holocaust deniers. I know you took being corrected badly but it was over a year ago. Might it not be time for you to move on?)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    kle4 said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    AUSTRIAN Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has called on Brussels to “find a way” to offer Britain a post-Brexit deal which will keep the UK’s relationship with the Continent as strong as possible.

    Helpful. We all know how much the Commission loves Austria, perhaps May will get Duda to put a word in for us next.
    I love the way people interpret such comments as being supportive of the British position. The Commission has already "found a way" to keep the UK relationship close - it consists of humiliating the Brexiteers.
    It's one heck of a gamble, and I think risks making no deal more likely than not.

    Even if the Commission wins, it will lose, because it will have a sullen, divided and resentful Britain perpetually unsatisfied with its relationship and disruptive.

    The UK won't simply fall into line and forget all about it, like Selmayr seems to (very naively) think it will.
    You admitted yourself that you didn't expect Brexit to be so divisive and you naively expected the country to swing behind Brexit. So far Selmayr is winning, much as it must pain you.
    Did you expect Remain to win? As if you did it hasn't dented your confidence that in a second referendum it would win again. You described that outcome as highly likely.

    None of us allow being wrong before to compromise our ability to confidently predict future events. It's why we'd make good pundits.
    I don't think I made a prediction on the 2016 referendum, but it was obvious that Cameron's strategy had failed from the moment he let expectations for his renegotiation get out of control. By the end of the campaign I thought Remain would probably lose. I was hoping for a narrow win but thought it wouldn't settle the matter - only a big win for Remain would have done so. This time I genuinely think that big win for Remain is on the cards if we get a second referendum, in a way that it never was in 2016.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407

    IanB2 said:

    I assume that suggesting Rebecca L-B as a credible successor was added through humorous intent.

    Thornberry is a possibility, although I would think she would struggle in an election.

    If he is replaced in office, credibly it can only be from someone already in the top team. Therefore it depends on who his key appointments are likely to be.

    A scenario not examined in the lead is if Labour finds itself only able to form a government by dealing with the SNP and/or the LibDems.

    Thornberry is someone who'd be a real turn off to non-metropolitan English marginals.

    Everything about her screams London urban left-wing snob.
    I think she is one of them with potential. I've seen her be quite offputting, but also at other times authoritative and convincing. She also doesn't seem to be stupid.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    dr_spyn said:
    Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.

    Why is it that every time you think things can't get worse...?

    This is the sort of thing I had in mind when I said yesterday that this whole topic was a gift for the Press in the silly season.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    AUSTRIAN Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has called on Brussels to “find a way” to offer Britain a post-Brexit deal which will keep the UK’s relationship with the Continent as strong as possible.

    Helpful. We all know how much the Commission loves Austria, perhaps May will get Duda to put a word in for us next.
    I love the way people interpret such comments as being supportive of the British position. The Commission has already "found a way" to keep the UK relationship close - it consists of humiliating the Brexiteers.
    William, have you ever been a member of the Tory party?
    It's more I think that he doesn't get sarcasm or irony.
    I don't get it? It's my sarcasm that you consistently fail to interpret.
    Of course it is, William. :smile:
    You completely flipped your lid about claiming Churchill as a Europhile and refused to acknowledge the slightest nuance about what his position in the present day would have been. I don't think you're in any position to give lectures on this point.
    At the moment I'm reclining on the settee. Is this a good position to give a lecture? I gave most of mine standing up as I recall.

    (And what I actually did, flippancy aside, was point out that you were misquoting him and point you to what he had actually said. That's hardly 'flipping my lid.' If you want to see me getting really angry, you should see me duffing up Holocaust deniers. I know you took being corrected badly but it was over a year ago. Might it not be time for you to move on?)
    Misquoting him? I think you'll find that, to use your favourite accusation, that is a lie.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    edited July 2018
    dr_spyn said:
    No, it's fine, she said IF it was a mossad assisted campaign. Merely a hypothetical...

    She does seem another Corbynite who disagrees with Corbyn that the party has had a problem on this issue.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    AUSTRIAN Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has called on Brussels to “find a way” to offer Britain a post-Brexit deal which will keep the UK’s relationship with the Continent as strong as possible.

    Helpful. We all know how much the Commission loves Austria, perhaps May will get Duda to put a word in for us next.
    I love the way people interpret such comments as being supportive of the British position. The Commission has already "found a way" to keep the UK relationship close - it consists of humiliating the Brexiteers.
    William, have you ever been a member of the Tory party?
    It's more I think that he doesn't get sarcasm or irony.
    I don't get it? It's my sarcasm that you consistently fail to interpret.
    Of course it is, William. :smile:
    You completely flipped your lid about claiming Churchill as a Europhile and refused to acknowledge the slightest nuance about what his position in the present day would have been. I don't think you're in any position to give lectures on this point.
    At the moment I'm reclining on the settee. Is this a good position to give a lecture? I gave most of mine standing up as I recall.

    (And what I actually did, flippancy aside, was point out that you were misquoting him and point you to what he had actually said. That's hardly 'flipping my lid.' If you want to see me getting really angry, you should see me duffing up Holocaust deniers. I know you took being corrected badly but it was over a year ago. Might it not be time for you to move on?)
    Misquoting him? I think you'll find that, to use your favourite accusation, that is a lie.
    Really sir, you are guilty of a terminological inexactitude.

    My favourite accusation is to say somebody's post is as bad as The Last Jedi.

    The annoying thing is some people take that as a compliment.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.

    Why is it that every time you think things can't get worse...?

    This is the sort of thing I had in mind when I said yesterday that this whole topic was a gift for the Press in the silly season.
    The silly season is being assisted by Labour having lots of silly people.

    Although, thick as pig-shit might be nearer the mark.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    kle4 said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    AUSTRIAN Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has called on Brussels to “find a way” to offer Britain a post-Brexit deal which will keep the UK’s relationship with the Continent as strong as possible.

    Helpful. We all know how much the Commission loves Austria, perhaps May will get Duda to put a word in for us next.
    I love the way people interpret such comments as being supportive of the British position. The Commission has already "found a way" to keep the UK relationship close - it consists of humiliating the Brexiteers.
    It's one heck of a gamble, and I think risks making no deal more likely than not.

    Even if the Commission wins, it will lose, because it will have a sullen, divided and resentful Britain perpetually unsatisfied with its relationship and disruptive.

    The UK won't simply fall into line and forget all about it, like Selmayr seems to (very naively) think it will.
    You admitted yourself that you didn't expect Brexit to be so divisive and you naively expected the country to swing behind Brexit. So far Selmayr is winning, much as it must pain you.
    Did you expect Remain to win? As if you did it hasn't dented your confidence that in a second referendum it would win again. You described that outcome as highly likely.

    None of us allow being wrong before to compromise our ability to confidently predict future events. It's why we'd make good pundits.
    I don't think I made a prediction on the 2016 referendum, but it was obvious that Cameron's strategy had failed from the moment he let expectations for his renegotiation get out of control. By the end of the campaign I thought Remain would probably lose. I was hoping for a narrow win but thought it wouldn't settle the matter - only a big win for Remain would have done so. This time I genuinely think that big win for Remain is on the cards if we get a second referendum, in a way that it never was in 2016.
    I wish I shared your confidence William. The polls haven't really moved much, not the they were very accurate last time. I wouldn't underestimate the ability of the Brexit press to invoke the Blitz spirit to rally support for Leave2.

    I hope I am wrong if we do have a 2nd ref.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    dr_spyn said:
    Pah!

    Howabout this for full fat anti-semitism, from a Republican Congressional candidate:

    http://archive.is/8JA5X
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Umunna is the clear favourite if he runs.

    Thornberry has probably accumulated too much bad blood given her career-climbing under Corbyn. Far too self-important.

    Nandy is well positioned, but a little too quiet.

    Beyond that there's the clear force that is Lammy, or the white knight D Milliband marching in from the west (joking in both cases)

    Long-Bailey seems a bit (to say the least) thick, but she is improving dramatically.

    Benn, Cooper, Khan, Burnham somehow I can't see.

    I suspect that there's a real chance for an inexperienced candidate to do well. I don't know much about these people, but the likes of Haigh, Pennycook, Ali.

    For some reason at some point I seem to have backed Luciana Berger too.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.

    Why is it that every time you think things can't get worse...?

    This is the sort of thing I had in mind when I said yesterday that this whole topic was a gift for the Press in the silly season.
    And like the rest of silly season, won't matter. His core doesn't care. Those outside say they care, and will make noise about it as they won't on other issues. Maybe it will even provoke some further action on Corbyn's part. Then things will quiet for a bit, then a story just like it will break again.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Omnium said:

    Umunna is the clear favourite if he runs.

    Thornberry has probably accumulated too much bad blood given her career-climbing under Corbyn. Far too self-important.

    Nandy is well positioned, but a little too quiet.

    Beyond that there's the clear force that is Lammy, or the white knight D Milliband marching in from the west (joking in both cases)

    Long-Bailey seems a bit (to say the least) thick, but she is improving dramatically.

    Benn, Cooper, Khan, Burnham somehow I can't see.

    I suspect that there's a real chance for an inexperienced candidate to do well. I don't know much about these people, but the likes of Haigh, Pennycook, Ali.

    For some reason at some point I seem to have backed Luciana Berger too.

    Umunna is the clear favourite? Seriously?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    kle4 said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    AUSTRIAN Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has called on Brussels to “find a way” to offer Britain a post-Brexit deal which will keep the UK’s relationship with the Continent as strong as possible.

    Helpful. We all know how much the Commission loves Austria, perhaps May will get Duda to put a word in for us next.
    I love the way people interpret such comments as being supportive of the British position. The Commission has already "found a way" to keep the UK relationship close - it consists of humiliating the Brexiteers.
    It's one heck of a gamble, and I think risks making no deal more likely than not.

    Even if the Commission wins, it will lose, because it will have a sullen, divided and resentful Britain perpetually unsatisfied with its relationship and disruptive.

    The UK won't simply fall into line and forget all about it, like Selmayr seems to (very naively) think it will.
    You admitted yourself that you didn't expect Brexit to be so divisive and you naively expected the country to swing behind Brexit. So far Selmayr is winning, much as it must pain you.
    Did you expect Remain to win? As if you did it hasn't dented your confidence that in a second referendum it would win again. You described that outcome as highly likely.

    None of us allow being wrong before to compromise our ability to confidently predict future events. It's why we'd make good pundits.
    I don't think I made a prediction on the 2016 referendum, but it was obvious that Cameron's strategy had failed from the moment he let expectations for his renegotiation get out of control. By the end of the campaign I thought Remain would probably lose. I was hoping for a narrow win but thought it wouldn't settle the matter - only a big win for Remain would have done so. This time I genuinely think that big win for Remain is on the cards if we get a second referendum, in a way that it never was in 2016.
    I wish I shared your confidence William. The polls haven't really moved much, not the they were very accurate last time. I wouldn't underestimate the ability of the Brexit press to invoke the Blitz spirit to rally support for Leave2.

    I hope I am wrong if we do have a 2nd ref.
    All the confidence has been sucked out of the Brexit elite. The 2016 campaign was driven by a sense of optimism about smashing the system and creating a new settlement on our terms. All that has gone, so what would be the purpose of invoking a Blitz spirit? There's nothing in it politically for those who would need to drive such a campaign.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Thanks Mr Meeks. Getting on Short Trousers at 350 sounds like an excellent piece of betting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited July 2018

    I wish I shared your confidence William. The polls haven't really moved much, not the they were very accurate last time. I wouldn't underestimate the ability of the Brexit press to invoke the Blitz spirit to rally support for Leave2.

    I hope I am wrong if we do have a 2nd ref.

    I think to be quite blunt that the key difficulties are (1) timing - we're out of time given how long everything takes (2) what question to put on (Leave/Deal/EEA/petition to Remain) (3) how to hold one at all without gifting Leave the line, 'Brussels once again makes us vote again in defiance of democracy.' Those are to my mind more pertinent issues than the fact there's very little sign of a change in public opinion and no reason to assume abstaining voters last time would vote Remain this time.

    Which is why it ultimately isn't going to happen. If I had the least idea what's going to happen instead I'd share, but I don't. As my grandmother's people would say, we are living in interesting times.

    Anyway, I have a lot of driving to do tomorrow so I'm off for an early night. Have a good evening.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Omnium said:

    Umunna is the clear favourite if he runs.

    Thornberry has probably accumulated too much bad blood given her career-climbing under Corbyn. Far too self-important.

    Nandy is well positioned, but a little too quiet.

    Beyond that there's the clear force that is Lammy, or the white knight D Milliband marching in from the west (joking in both cases)

    Long-Bailey seems a bit (to say the least) thick, but she is improving dramatically.

    Benn, Cooper, Khan, Burnham somehow I can't see.

    I suspect that there's a real chance for an inexperienced candidate to do well. I don't know much about these people, but the likes of Haigh, Pennycook, Ali.

    For some reason at some point I seem to have backed Luciana Berger too.

    Umunna is the clear favourite? Seriously?
    In my view he's only 29/32 on BF because he pulled out last time. I'd have him about 6ish if he was certain to run, probably shorter.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    SeanT said:

    i think you're right and Leave would probably win referendum 2.0

    At least then the Remainers would have to shut up for 30 years, and we would go into the darkness, united. As it were.

    I doubt it. It would just become "well that wasn't the real referendum either, let's have another one, just in case".

    Anyway, as I pointed out earlier today. No Tory PM could ever propose another referendum. It would be the end of our party.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    Helpful. We all know how much the Commission loves Austria, perhaps May will get Duda to put a word in for us next.
    I love the way people interpret such comments as being supportive of the British position. The Commission has already "found a way" to keep the UK relationship close - it consists of humiliating the Brexiteers.
    It's one heck of a gamble, and I think risks making no deal more likely than not.

    Even if the Commission wins, it will lose, because it will have a sullen, divided and resentful Britain perpetually unsatisfied with its relationship and disruptive.

    The UK won't simply fall into line and forget all about it, like Selmayr seems to (very naively) think it will.
    You admitted yourself that you didn't expect Brexit to be so divisive and you naively expected the country to swing behind Brexit. So far Selmayr is winning, much as it must pain you.
    Did you expect Remain to win? As if you did it hasn't dented your confidence that in a second referendum it would win again. You described that outcome as highly likely.

    None of us allow being wrong before to compromise our ability to confidently predict future events. It's why we'd make good pundits.
    I don't think I made a prediction on the 2016 referendum, but it was obvious that Cameron's strategy had failed from the moment he let expectations for his renegotiation get out of control. By the end of the campaign I thought Remain would probably lose. I was hoping for a narrow win but thought it wouldn't settle the matter - only a big win for Remain would have done so. This time I genuinely think that big win for Remain is on the cards if we get a second referendum, in a way that it never was in 2016.
    I wish I shared your confidence William. The polls haven't really moved much, not the they were very accurate last time. I wouldn't underestimate the ability of the Brexit press to invoke the Blitz spirit to rally support for Leave2.

    I hope I am wrong if we do have a 2nd ref.
    i think you're right and Leave would probably win referendum 2.0

    At least then the Remainers would have to shut up for 30 years, and we would go into the darkness, united. As it were.
    If we do end up facing No Deal we should definitely have a ref2, even though I fear the outcome might still be Leave. At least we'd know that was what the country voted for... if we go into No Deal without another vote plenty of Leavers will (rightly) say 'that's not what I voted for'.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    edited July 2018


    Well, lets have a #peoplesvote and see :)

    I reckon 55/45 for Remain, mostly by better turnout from the young, and worse turnout by bored CDEs.
  • ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.

    Why is it that every time you think things can't get worse...?

    This is the sort of thing I had in mind when I said yesterday that this whole topic was a gift for the Press in the silly season.
    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1022925842299736069
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Umunna is the clear favourite if he runs.

    Thornberry has probably accumulated too much bad blood given her career-climbing under Corbyn. Far too self-important.

    Nandy is well positioned, but a little too quiet.

    Beyond that there's the clear force that is Lammy, or the white knight D Milliband marching in from the west (joking in both cases)

    Long-Bailey seems a bit (to say the least) thick, but she is improving dramatically.

    Benn, Cooper, Khan, Burnham somehow I can't see.

    I suspect that there's a real chance for an inexperienced candidate to do well. I don't know much about these people, but the likes of Haigh, Pennycook, Ali.

    For some reason at some point I seem to have backed Luciana Berger too.

    Umunna is the clear favourite? Seriously?
    In my view he's only 29/32 on BF because he pulled out last time. I'd have him about 6ish if he was certain to run, probably shorter.
    So the membership (who decide the leader) will dislike Thornberry for serving under the leader they overwhelmingly voted for twice and flock to Umunna who has sat back and criticised the popular leader?

    I'm not saying it can't happen I just don't follow the logic of the current membership not liking what it voted for....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    i think you're right and Leave would probably win referendum 2.0

    At least then the Remainers would have to shut up for 30 years, and we would go into the darkness, united. As it were.

    I doubt it. It would just become "well that wasn't the real referendum either, let's have another one, just in case".

    Anyway, as I pointed out earlier today. No Tory PM could ever propose another referendum. It would be the end of our party.
    Er...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/16/back-second-brexit-vote-says-conservative-mp-justine-greening

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-tory-minister-phillip-lee-12687126

    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1022727296439017472
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Foxy said:



    Well, lets have a #peoplesvote and see :)

    I reckon 55/45 for Remain, mostly by better turnout from the young, and worse turnout by bored CDEs.

    Lol, so in a "people vs the elites" election the elites win? Bring. It. On.

    I look forwards to bitter remainers crying into their prosecco after the results.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    i think you're right and Leave would probably win referendum 2.0

    At least then the Remainers would have to shut up for 30 years, and we would go into the darkness, united. As it were.

    I doubt it. It would just become "well that wasn't the real referendum either, let's have another one, just in case".

    Anyway, as I pointed out earlier today. No Tory PM could ever propose another referendum. It would be the end of our party.
    Er...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/16/back-second-brexit-vote-says-conservative-mp-justine-greening

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-tory-minister-phillip-lee-12687126

    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1022727296439017472
    Are either of them the Prime Minister?!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    i think you're right and Leave would probably win referendum 2.0

    At least then the Remainers would have to shut up for 30 years, and we would go into the darkness, united. As it were.

    I doubt it. It would just become "well that wasn't the real referendum either, let's have another one, just in case".

    Anyway, as I pointed out earlier today. No Tory PM could ever propose another referendum. It would be the end of our party.
    Er...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/16/back-second-brexit-vote-says-conservative-mp-justine-greening

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-tory-minister-phillip-lee-12687126

    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1022727296439017472
    Are either of them the Prime Minister?!
    Yes, the one on the left is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Umunna is the clear favourite if he runs.

    Thornberry has probably accumulated too much bad blood given her career-climbing under Corbyn. Far too self-important.

    Nandy is well positioned, but a little too quiet.

    Beyond that there's the clear force that is Lammy, or the white knight D Milliband marching in from the west (joking in both cases)

    Long-Bailey seems a bit (to say the least) thick, but she is improving dramatically.

    Benn, Cooper, Khan, Burnham somehow I can't see.

    I suspect that there's a real chance for an inexperienced candidate to do well. I don't know much about these people, but the likes of Haigh, Pennycook, Ali.

    For some reason at some point I seem to have backed Luciana Berger too.

    Umunna is the clear favourite? Seriously?
    In my view he's only 29/32 on BF because he pulled out last time. I'd have him about 6ish if he was certain to run, probably shorter.
    So the membership (who decide the leader) will dislike Thornberry for serving under the leader they overwhelmingly voted for twice and flock to Umunna who has sat back and criticised the popular leader?

    I'm not saying it can't happen I just don't follow the logic of the current membership not liking what it voted for....
    Chukka is popular because of his campaigning against Brexit. That goes down well with Labour Party members.

    Parties not only can replace leaders with their polar opposites, but very often do so.

    Few Leaders get to annoint their successors, usually the selectorate tries to address the failings of the outgoing leader. This applies to all parties. The Tories replaced the urbane and charming, but slack Dave with an uptight control freak, for a recent example.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited July 2018
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    i think you're right and Leave would probably win referendum 2.0

    At least then the Remainers would have to shut up for 30 years, and we would go into the darkness, united. As it were.

    I doubt it. It would just become "well that wasn't the real referendum either, let's have another one, just in case".

    Anyway, as I pointed out earlier today. No Tory PM could ever propose another referendum. It would be the end of our party.
    Er...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/16/back-second-brexit-vote-says-conservative-mp-justine-greening

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-tory-minister-phillip-lee-12687126

    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1022727296439017472
    Are either of them the Prime Minister?!
    Ah apols! I misread 'PM' as 'MP', as you probably guessed.

    (Having said that, I wouldn't put it past Theresa to come back from her walking hols thinking a second referendum would be a splendid idea!)

    Edit: Just had to laugh at your question "Are either of them the Prime Minister?" following the picture in Soubry's tweet. Answer: "Yes, but would we be bettor off wit the other one?"

    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1022727296439017472
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Umunna is the clear favourite if he runs.

    Thornberry has probably accumulated too much bad blood given her career-climbing under Corbyn. Far too self-important.

    Nandy is well positioned, but a little too quiet.

    Beyond that there's the clear force that is Lammy, or the white knight D Milliband marching in from the west (joking in both cases)

    Long-Bailey seems a bit (to say the least) thick, but she is improving dramatically.

    Benn, Cooper, Khan, Burnham somehow I can't see.

    I suspect that there's a real chance for an inexperienced candidate to do well. I don't know much about these people, but the likes of Haigh, Pennycook, Ali.

    For some reason at some point I seem to have backed Luciana Berger too.

    Umunna is the clear favourite? Seriously?
    In my view he's only 29/32 on BF because he pulled out last time. I'd have him about 6ish if he was certain to run, probably shorter.
    So the membership (who decide the leader) will dislike Thornberry for serving under the leader they overwhelmingly voted for twice and flock to Umunna who has sat back and criticised the popular leader?

    I'm not saying it can't happen I just don't follow the logic of the current membership not liking what it voted for....
    You make a good point, I guess I'm thinking about the early maneuvering rather than a final vote. I don't think Umunna will run anyway.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    (Having said that, I wouldn't put it past Theresa to come back from her walking hols thinking a second referendum would be a splendid idea!)

    If May calls a second referendum I don't think it will be a spur of the moment thing, but the culmination of a strategy that began before she invoked Article 50.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    edited July 2018

    (Having said that, I wouldn't put it past Theresa to come back from her walking hols thinking a second referendum would be a splendid idea!)

    If May calls a second referendum I don't think it will be a spur of the moment thing, but the culmination of a strategy that began before she invoked Article 50.
    That's the problem with your theories - there is a mountain of evidence that the government has been lurching from crisis to crisis, barely able to keep its squabbling factions together, and surviving from hour to hour. There is no compelling counter evidence that May has the means, let alone the ability, to execute so well such a Machiavellian ploy.

    Think about it - from before she even invoked article 50 she was instigating a plan which would end with a referendum and reversal of Brexit? No doubt stated intention to invoke article 50 without parliament was a ploy to ensure a court case which they were certain (despite some justices taking the alternate view) would result in parliament having to do so, thereby ensuring no future pm could invoke, and thereby giving theoretical disinvoking powers to parliament as well?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    i think you're right and Leave would probably win referendum 2.0

    At least then the Remainers would have to shut up for 30 years, and we would go into the darkness, united. As it were.

    I doubt it. It would just become "well that wasn't the real referendum either, let's have another one, just in case".

    Anyway, as I pointed out earlier today. No Tory PM could ever propose another referendum. It would be the end of our party.
    Er...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/16/back-second-brexit-vote-says-conservative-mp-justine-greening

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-tory-minister-phillip-lee-12687126

    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1022727296439017472
    Are either of them the Prime Minister?!
    Ah apols! I misread 'PM' as 'MP', as you probably guessed.

    (Having said that, I wouldn't put it past Theresa to come back from her walking hols thinking a second referendum would be a splendid idea!)

    Edit: Just had to laugh at your question "Are either of them the Prime Minister?" following the picture in Soubry's tweet. Answer: "Yes, but would we be bettor off wit the other one?"

    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1022727296439017472
    One of them is blinkered and ploughs a lonely furrow. The other one is a Shire Horse.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    (Having said that, I wouldn't put it past Theresa to come back from her walking hols thinking a second referendum would be a splendid idea!)

    If May calls a second referendum I don't think it will be a spur of the moment thing, but the culmination of a strategy that began before she invoked Article 50.
    On that basis, far from being the poor sop who chanced to become the PM at a difficult time and has since been buffeted left and right by events and self-inflicted mishaps, Theresa May is in fact one of the greatest political schemers in history!

    I'll be full of admiration for her if it turns out to be the latter.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Umunna is the clear favourite if he runs.

    Thornberry has probably accumulated too much bad blood given her career-climbing under Corbyn. Far too self-important.

    Nandy is well positioned, but a little too quiet.

    Beyond that there's the clear force that is Lammy, or the white knight D Milliband marching in from the west (joking in both cases)

    Long-Bailey seems a bit (to say the least) thick, but she is improving dramatically.

    Benn, Cooper, Khan, Burnham somehow I can't see.

    I suspect that there's a real chance for an inexperienced candidate to do well. I don't know much about these people, but the likes of Haigh, Pennycook, Ali.

    For some reason at some point I seem to have backed Luciana Berger too.

    Umunna is the clear favourite? Seriously?
    In my view he's only 29/32 on BF because he pulled out last time. I'd have him about 6ish if he was certain to run, probably shorter.
    So the membership (who decide the leader) will dislike Thornberry for serving under the leader they overwhelmingly voted for twice and flock to Umunna who has sat back and criticised the popular leader?

    I'm not saying it can't happen I just don't follow the logic of the current membership not liking what it voted for....
    Chukka is popular because of his campaigning against Brexit. That goes down well with Labour Party members.

    Parties not only can replace leaders with their polar opposites, but very often do so.

    Few Leaders get to annoint their successors, usually the selectorate tries to address the failings of the outgoing leader. This applies to all parties. The Tories replaced the urbane and charming, but slack Dave with an uptight control freak, for a recent example.
    If campaigning against Brexit is enough to make you popular amongst Labour members you have to wonder why Owen Smith did so poorly versus Corbyn.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    i think you're right and Leave would probably win referendum 2.0

    At least then the Remainers would have to shut up for 30 years, and we would go into the darkness, united. As it were.

    I doubt it. It would just become "well that wasn't the real referendum either, let's have another one, just in case".

    Anyway, as I pointed out earlier today. No Tory PM could ever propose another referendum. It would be the end of our party.
    Er...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/16/back-second-brexit-vote-says-conservative-mp-justine-greening

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-tory-minister-phillip-lee-12687126

    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1022727296439017472
    Are either of them the Prime Minister?!
    Ah apols! I misread 'PM' as 'MP', as you probably guessed.

    (Having said that, I wouldn't put it past Theresa to come back from her walking hols thinking a second referendum would be a splendid idea!)

    Edit: Just had to laugh at your question "Are either of them the Prime Minister?" following the picture in Soubry's tweet. Answer: "Yes, but would we be bettor off wit the other one?"

    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1022727296439017472
    One of them is blinkered and ploughs a lonely furrow. The other one is a Shire Horse.
    Nice one! :lol:
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:



    Chukka is popular because of his campaigning against Brexit. That goes down well with Labour Party members.

    Parties not only can replace leaders with their polar opposites, but very often do so.

    Few Leaders get to annoint their successors, usually the selectorate tries to address the failings of the outgoing leader. This applies to all parties. The Tories replaced the urbane and charming, but slack Dave with an uptight control freak, for a recent example.
    I've seen you advance the argument a couple of times and I am a little sceptical. The circumstances that Dave and May were chosen were pretty different, also the members didn't actually get to choose May, the choice was made for them and the only other option given was Leadsom. That aside in May I imagine the party got someone closer to their views than Dave.

    If there was an argument made and believed that Chuka will win the next election and his rival candidate won't then policy can be put aside to a certain extent, I don't see that argument being seen as true by enough members to make the difference.

    People can vote on all kinds of things but presumably policy (or at least where the candidate is perceived to be politically) will be the most important, on that basis others would be favoured over him. If members were voting for someone closer to them politically then other candidates would probably get picked above him. I don't see Corbyn necessarily being able to pick his successor (though I wouldn't rule it out completely) but I do think it is more likely to be someone from the left of the party, or at least someone a bit politically closer to Corbyn than Chuka.

    To clarify again I wouldn't rule him out although calling him a clear favourite is wrong IMO, also all the other points aside I do think the next leader is likely to be a woman as well which is also a mark against Chuka.
  • HenryGMansonHenryGManson Posts: 149

    I think the next Labour leadership contest will be an all women affair and I can imagine there would be a bit of gentle pressure applied to male MPs considering throwing in their hat. I can see Emily Thornberry (5/1), Angela Rayner (10/1) and Lisa Nandy (25/1) standing. I think Rayner is the value choice and most likely to be supported by trade unions, but you could do worse than back all three.

    How about someone like Kate Osamor? Female, black, North London seat, a Corbyn loyalist, and not (insofar as I'm aware) mixed up with some of the more contentious foreign policy baggage.
    It definitely won't be Kate Osamor. Save your money!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    (Having said that, I wouldn't put it past Theresa to come back from her walking hols thinking a second referendum would be a splendid idea!)

    If May calls a second referendum I don't think it will be a spur of the moment thing, but the culmination of a strategy that began before she invoked Article 50.
    On that basis, far from being the poor sop who chanced to become the PM at a difficult time and has since been buffeted left and right by events and self-inflicted mishaps, Theresa May is in fact one of the greatest political schemers in history!

    I'll be full of admiration for her if it turns out to be the latter.
    Have you read Shipman's 'Fallout'? If not, prepare to be incredibly disappointed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited July 2018
    SeanT said:

    APOLOGIES.

    NOVELIST'S REQUEST INCOMING


    Can I ask the PB Brains Trust if anyone has any knowledge of Mental Health in action in the NHS: specifically, what the process would be if someone tried to section themselves?

    I have a heroine in a thriller who is about to do that: i.e. she is dubious of her own sanity, and stability, and to save her family and friends she presents herself at a Mental Health Unit, saying "please section me and take me in, I think I am mad".

    How would that work in Britain?

    I say "Britain" because I have a good friend who - years ago - tried to do precisely this, but in Ireland. He went into a hospital, with a mental health ward, tried to get himself certified as insane (he WAS having lot of issues) but a doctor listened to him, and talked him down and said "look, I could sign this paper and send you through those security doors, but it might be a long time before you come out" and my mate saw the sense in this, and went home, and calmed down.

    And now, amazingly, and wonderfully, he's a successful man: owns a home, has a good business, has girlfriends, is well liked by many. And he thanks that doctor every day.

    But is it, and would it, be the same in the UK, if you tried to dump yourself in the loony bin?

    All advice welcome. Thankyou.

    My neighbour is Head of Psychiatry for the local NHS if you would like I can ask him if he would help you with your questions. A credit if deserved plus a bestseller (maybe egging things on there) raising issues he cares about may well swing it.
    He is a bit controversial, court cases and the such but knows his beans.
  • HenryGMansonHenryGManson Posts: 149
    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Umunna is the clear favourite if he runs.

    Thornberry has probably accumulated too much bad blood given her career-climbing under Corbyn. Far too self-important.

    Nandy is well positioned, but a little too quiet.

    Beyond that there's the clear force that is Lammy, or the white knight D Milliband marching in from the west (joking in both cases)

    Long-Bailey seems a bit (to say the least) thick, but she is improving dramatically.

    Benn, Cooper, Khan, Burnham somehow I can't see.

    I suspect that there's a real chance for an inexperienced candidate to do well. I don't know much about these people, but the likes of Haigh, Pennycook, Ali.

    For some reason at some point I seem to have backed Luciana Berger too.

    Umunna is the clear favourite? Seriously?
    In my view he's only 29/32 on BF because he pulled out last time. I'd have him about 6ish if he was certain to run, probably shorter.
    So the membership (who decide the leader) will dislike Thornberry for serving under the leader they overwhelmingly voted for twice and flock to Umunna who has sat back and criticised the popular leader?

    I'm not saying it can't happen I just don't follow the logic of the current membership not liking what it voted for....
    Chukka is popular because of his campaigning against Brexit. That goes down well with Labour Party members.

    Parties not only can replace leaders with their polar opposites, but very often do so.

    Few Leaders get to annoint their successors, usually the selectorate tries to address the failings of the outgoing leader. This applies to all parties. The Tories replaced the urbane and charming, but slack Dave with an uptight control freak, for a recent example.
    Chuka is not popular with members or MPs, despite all his campaigning on a popular issue. I don't want to denigrate the bloke, but he can be scrubbed out for the next contest. Who knows in the future he may get another shot.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    SeanT said:

    APOLOGIES.

    NOVELIST'S REQUEST INCOMING


    Can I ask the PB Brains Trust if anyone has any knowledge of Mental Health in action in the NHS: specifically, what the process would be if someone tried to section themselves?

    I have a heroine in a thriller who is about to do that: i.e. she is dubious of her own sanity, and stability, and to save her family and friends she presents herself at a Mental Health Unit, saying "please section me and take me in, I think I am mad".

    How would that work in Britain?

    I say "Britain" because I have a good friend who - years ago - tried to do precisely this, but in Ireland. He went into a hospital, with a mental health ward, tried to get himself certified as insane (he WAS having lot of issues) but a doctor listened to him, and talked him down and said "look, I could sign this paper and send you through those security doors, but it might be a long time before you come out" and my mate saw the sense in this, and went home, and calmed down.

    And now, amazingly, and wonderfully, he's a successful man: owns a home, has a good business, has girlfriends, is well liked by many. And he thanks that doctor every day.

    But is it, and would it, be the same in the UK, if you tried to dump yourself in the loony bin?

    All advice welcome. Thankyou.

    My experience is with the 1983 Mental Health Act, since superseded by the 2007 one, but the principle largely unchanged.

    Such a patient would be a voluntary patient*, so not sectioned at all.

    If however they were admitted, and were perceived by the Mental Health Team, considered to be a danger to themselves or others, they could be Sectioned if they tried to leave the unit, or refused to comply with treatment. There is then a legal process, and different sections of the act apply depending on which personnel are involved and what treatment is required.

    Sections only apply if either dangerous or in danger, but merely being floridly insane is not sectionable in itself.

    *in reality, owing to bed shortages, very likely to be treated as an outpatient.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    SeanT said:

    APOLOGIES.

    NOVELIST'S REQUEST INCOMING


    Can I ask the PB Brains Trust if anyone has any knowledge of Mental Health in action in the NHS: specifically, what the process would be if someone tried to section themselves?

    I have a heroine in a thriller who is about to do that: i.e. she is dubious of her own sanity, and stability, and to save her family and friends she presents herself at a Mental Health Unit, saying "please section me and take me in, I think I am mad".

    How would that work in Britain?

    I say "Britain" because I have a good friend who - years ago - tried to do precisely this, but in Ireland. He went into a hospital, with a mental health ward, tried to get himself certified as insane (he WAS having lot of issues) but a doctor listened to him, and talked him down and said "look, I could sign this paper and send you through those security doors, but it might be a long time before you come out" and my mate saw the sense in this, and went home, and calmed down.

    And now, amazingly, and wonderfully, he's a successful man: owns a home, has a good business, has girlfriends, is well liked by many. And he thanks that doctor every day.

    But is it, and would it, be the same in the UK, if you tried to dump yourself in the loony bin?

    All advice welcome. Thankyou.

    From the Missus, a mental health profesional.
    You can't just ask to be sectioned. Thinking you are mad, or being suicidal is not enough. You need to walk the fine line between being a danger to others, but not enough to be arrested for the same.
    In reality, you would go through the crisis team, who would then refer you to the oncall doctor at a Police Station. Only they, or a psychiatrist, can recommend sectioning you. Of course, once sectioned, it is difficult to get out. Homeless people try it all the time, and there are limited places.
    It is a legal deprivation of liberty and not to be entered into lightly.
    Follow @mentalhealthcop on Twitter (ex-nightjack) if you want to know more is her advice, as she does not deal with the legalities.
    She would only refer to Crisis Team, or, A+E.
    Hope this helps
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Surely if the Jezziah is deposed from this rightful place as head of Labour, he'll go to a dark place for a think, and after three days he'll rise and rule the hearts of all men.

    Except Israelis, of course. Or Tories. ;)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498

    'Prince Charles apologises for not bashing the Bishop'
  • HenryGMansonHenryGManson Posts: 149
    Omnium said:

    Umunna is the clear favourite if he runs.

    Thornberry has probably accumulated too much bad blood given her career-climbing under Corbyn. Far too self-important.

    Nandy is well positioned, but a little too quiet.

    Beyond that there's the clear force that is Lammy, or the white knight D Milliband marching in from the west (joking in both cases)

    Long-Bailey seems a bit (to say the least) thick, but she is improving dramatically.

    Benn, Cooper, Khan, Burnham somehow I can't see.

    I suspect that there's a real chance for an inexperienced candidate to do well. I don't know much about these people, but the likes of Haigh, Pennycook, Ali.

    For some reason at some point I seem to have backed Luciana Berger too.

    Louise Haigh is a very good prospect for the future. If you think Corbyn is here for a good while longer then the 100/1 is well worth it for a contest in 2022 or beyond. She is one of the most talented of the 2015 intake and is just going to get better and better.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited July 2018
    Surely that should be "Christians drink blood and eat bodies" (after the priest does the transubstantiation business with the bread and wine on Sundays?)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498

    Memo to Charles: If it walks, talks and squawks like a kiddie fiddler, everyone says it's a kiddie fiddler, it's received a caution for kiddie fiddling AND it's an Anglican fecking bishop, have a good long think about what it might actually be before writing one of those sodding letters to it, OK?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Surely that should be "Christians drink blood and eat bodies" (after the priest does the transubstantiation business with the bread and wine on Sundays?)
    Catholics. Not all Christians believe in Transubstantiation.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498

    Very droll!

    Any reason they didn't call him Prince Charles? Future King makes the headline sound weird.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Surely if the Jezziah is deposed from this rightful place as head of Labour, he'll go to a dark place for a think, and after three days he'll rise and rule the hearts of all men.

    Except Israelis, of course. Or Tories. ;)

    When I say to the wicked, ‘O wicked man, you shall surely die!’ and you do not speak to warn the wicked from his way, that wicked man shall die in his iniquity; but his blood I will require at your hand. 9 Nevertheless if you warn the wicked to turn from his way, and he does not turn from his way, he shall die in his iniquity; but you have [a]delivered your soul.

    Those who repent of course will be welcome in the glorious kingdom of our lord....


    I don't like to clarify on jokes but they don't seem to go down well on PB (or are completely misread) so to clarify I don't think all Tories or Israelis are sinners or wicked (although to be honest I generally use wicked as a compliment or a good thing anyway)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407

    Surely that should be "Christians drink blood and eat bodies" (after the priest does the transubstantiation business with the bread and wine on Sundays?)
    Does it count if one believes in consubstantiation?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Umunna is the clear favourite if he runs.

    Thornberry has probably accumulated too much bad blood given her career-climbing under Corbyn. Far too self-important.

    Nandy is well positioned, but a little too quiet.

    Beyond that there's the clear force that is Lammy, or the white knight D Milliband marching in from the west (joking in both cases)

    Long-Bailey seems a bit (to say the least) thick, but she is improving dramatically.

    Benn, Cooper, Khan, Burnham somehow I can't see.

    I suspect that there's a real chance for an inexperienced candidate to do well. I don't know much about these people, but the likes of Haigh, Pennycook, Ali.

    For some reason at some point I seem to have backed Luciana Berger too.

    Umunna is the clear favourite? Seriously?
    In my view he's only 29/32 on BF because he pulled out last time. I'd have him about 6ish if he was certain to run, probably shorter.
    So the membership (who decide the leader) will dislike Thornberry for serving under the leader they overwhelmingly voted for twice and flock to Umunna who has sat back and criticised the popular leader?

    I'm not saying it can't happen I just don't follow the logic of the current membership not liking what it voted for....
    Chukka is popular because of his campaigning against Brexit. That goes down well with Labour Party members.

    Parties not only can replace leaders with their polar opposites, but very often do so.

    Few Leaders get to annoint their successors, usually the selectorate tries to address the failings of the outgoing leader. This applies to all parties. The Tories replaced the urbane and charming, but slack Dave with an uptight control freak, for a recent example.
    Chuka is not popular with members or MPs, despite all his campaigning on a popular issue. I don't want to denigrate the bloke, but he can be scrubbed out for the next contest. Who knows in the future he may get another shot.
    Yes, I do not think he is anything other than an outside bet for that reason. A lot depennds how the cards of Brexit fall. Even so, I think he comes over as too slick and arrogant.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    RobD said:

    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498

    Very droll!

    Any reason they didn't call him Prince Charles? Future King makes the headline sound weird.
    Indeed - thank goodness they included a picture, otherwise it could have been plenty of future kings!

    Presumably it's a psychological thing to really make people focus on the fact that he will take over from the Queen some day. We all know it, but might react less if we just go 'Oh, another Prince Charles is a wally' story.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    eek said:
    Winding up petition from their own driver, well a company Sergio Perez controls.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    edited July 2018
    SeanT said:

    Yay. Fab. I love PB. Think that pretty much sorts it: in terms of self sectioning. I have enough detail to furnish my chapter 28.

    Thankyou to everyone who offered advice, dixie, Foxy, ralph, et al, brilliant.

    What did we all do, before the internet?!

    Make things up and pray it's plausible enough for the purpose?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    RobD said:

    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498

    Very droll!

    Any reason they didn't call him Prince Charles? Future King makes the headline sound weird.
    Prince Charles takes up too much space - too many letters?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498

    Very droll!

    Any reason they didn't call him Prince Charles? Future King makes the headline sound weird.
    Prince Charles takes up too much space - too many letters?
    "Charles"? :p
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    I have come up with a simultaneous equation.

    Hard Brexit = sh*t
    Soft Brexit = bullsh*t

    If anyone has an answer let me know
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    RobD said:

    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498

    Very droll!

    Any reason they didn't call him Prince Charles? Future King makes the headline sound weird.
    Makes it sound like a report of a slighltly whacky chess match.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    So many people have said it was against the national interest to proceed from the start, that doesn't make a referendum with a remain option inevitable.

    I happen to think the chances are relatively high, if not anywhere near as good as no deal, but that statement is just plain stupid.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498

    Very droll!

    Any reason they didn't call him Prince Charles? Future King makes the headline sound weird.
    Makes it sound like a report of a slighltly whacky chess match.
    If only there had been some allegations relating to pawn....

    Ah, my coat.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    i think you're right and Leave would probably win referendum 2.0

    At least then the Remainers would have to shut up for 30 years, and we would go into the darkness, united. As it were.

    I doubt it. It would just become "well that wasn't the real referendum either, let's have another one, just in case".

    Anyway, as I pointed out earlier today. No Tory PM could ever propose another referendum. It would be the end of our party.
    Er...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/16/back-second-brexit-vote-says-conservative-mp-justine-greening

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-tory-minister-phillip-lee-12687126

    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1022727296439017472
    Are either of them the Prime Minister?!
    Yes, the one on the left is.
    No, Jeremy just SAID he would be by now....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    I have come up with a simultaneous equation.

    Hard Brexit = sh*t
    Soft Brexit = bullsh*t

    If anyone has an answer let me know

    Hard Brexit = Soft Brexit * bull.

    What do I win?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    RobD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498

    Very droll!

    Any reason they didn't call him Prince Charles? Future King makes the headline sound weird.
    Makes it sound like a report of a slighltly whacky chess match.
    If only there had been some allegations relating to pawn....

    Ah, my coat.
    I can see it's going to be a long Knight.....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498

    Very droll!

    Any reason they didn't call him Prince Charles? Future King makes the headline sound weird.
    Prince Charles takes up too much space - too many letters?
    "Charles"? :p
    No, I mean Prince Charles takes up too much space and writes too many letters.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    edited July 2018

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    AUSTRIAN Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has called on Brussels to “find a way” to offer Britain a post-Brexit deal which will keep the UK’s relationship with the Continent as strong as possible.

    Helpful. We all know how much the Commission loves Austria, perhaps May will get Duda to put a word in for us next.
    I love the way people interpret such comments as being supportive of the British position. The Commission has already "found a way" to keep the UK relationship close - it consists of humiliating the Brexiteers.
    It's one heck of a gamble, and I think risks making no deal more likely than not.

    Even if the Commission wins, it will lose, because it will have a sullen, divided and resentful Britain perpetually unsatisfied with its relationship and disruptive.

    The UK won't simply fall into line and forget all about it, like Selmayr seems to (very naively) think it will.
    You admitted yourself that you didn't expect Brexit to be so divisive and you naively expected the country to swing behind it after the referendum. So far Selmayr is winning, much as it must pain you.
    No, he isn't and that's a rather pathetic attempt to use my own words against me, as well as slightly creepy. The fact that the country may be divided on the subject of Brexit does not reflect any love for the EU, but a sullen better-the-devil you-know response to miscalculations by both sides turning a challenging situation into an extremely difficult situation. It has no bearing on how the UK's satisfaction with the EU or its long-term relationship may evolve, as much as it must pain you. No-one likes being bullied or coerced.

    Your euroenthusiast views are shared by 15-20% of the population, at best. If you want to talk about naivety, we should start with you.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498

    Very droll!

    Any reason they didn't call him Prince Charles? Future King makes the headline sound weird.
    Prince Charles takes up too much space - too many letters?
    "Charles"? :p
    No, I mean Prince Charles takes up too much space and writes too many letters.
    My point was they could have just used the word Charles. ;)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    i think you're right and Leave would probably win referendum 2.0

    At least then the Remainers would have to shut up for 30 years, and we would go into the darkness, united. As it were.

    I doubt it. It would just become "well that wasn't the real referendum either, let's have another one, just in case".

    Anyway, as I pointed out earlier today. No Tory PM could ever propose another referendum. It would be the end of our party.
    I think "we said Leave, we meant it" would be very potent. British electorates really don't like a bad loser.

    Ultra-Remainers fail to see this as they've convinced themselves their case has already been proven, which it hasn't and won't be.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    i think you're right and Leave would probably win referendum 2.0

    At least then the Remainers would have to shut up for 30 years, and we would go into the darkness, united. As it were.

    I doubt it. It would just become "well that wasn't the real referendum either, let's have another one, just in case".

    Anyway, as I pointed out earlier today. No Tory PM could ever propose another referendum. It would be the end of our party.
    I think "we said Leave, we meant it" would be very potent. British electorates really don't like a bad loser.

    Ultra-Remainers fail to see this as they've convinced themselves their case has already been proven, which it hasn't and won't be.
    Plus the £350mn/week would be even more correct (increases in budget contribution and the end of the rebate as punishment)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    Scott_P said:
    I hope it is as good as The Last Jedi.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    (Having said that, I wouldn't put it past Theresa to come back from her walking hols thinking a second referendum would be a splendid idea!)

    If May calls a second referendum I don't think it will be a spur of the moment thing, but the culmination of a strategy that began before she invoked Article 50.
    Absolutely barking.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498

    Very droll!

    Any reason they didn't call him Prince Charles? Future King makes the headline sound weird.
    Prince Charles takes up too much space - too many letters?
    "Charles"? :p
    No, I mean Prince Charles takes up too much space and writes too many letters.
    My point was they could have just used the word Charles. ;)
    I know :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498

    Very droll!

    Any reason they didn't call him Prince Charles? Future King makes the headline sound weird.
    Prince Charles takes up too much space - too many letters?
    "Charles"? :p
    No, I mean Prince Charles takes up too much space and writes too many letters.
    My point was they could have just used the word Charles. ;)
    I know :)
    Ah, I must have misinterpreted what you said somehow. Sorry!
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited July 2018
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    i think you're right and Leave would probably win referendum 2.0

    At least then the Remainers would have to shut up for 30 years, and we would go into the darkness, united. As it were.

    I doubt it. It would just become "well that wasn't the real referendum either, let's have another one, just in case".

    Anyway, as I pointed out earlier today. No Tory PM could ever propose another referendum. It would be the end of our party.
    I think "we said Leave, we meant it" would be very potent. British electorates really don't like a bad loser.

    Ultra-Remainers fail to see this as they've convinced themselves their case has already been proven, which it hasn't and won't be.
    Plus the £350mn/week would be even more correct (increases in budget contribution and the end of the rebate as punishment)
    Or maybe it would be even less accurate when they double our rebate in my preferred hypothetical?

    Edit: as reward.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    i think you're right and Leave would probably win referendum 2.0

    At least then the Remainers would have to shut up for 30 years, and we would go into the darkness, united. As it were.

    I doubt it. It would just become "well that wasn't the real referendum either, let's have another one, just in case".

    Anyway, as I pointed out earlier today. No Tory PM could ever propose another referendum. It would be the end of our party.
    I think "we said Leave, we meant it" would be very potent. British electorates really don't like a bad loser.

    Ultra-Remainers fail to see this as they've convinced themselves their case has already been proven, which it hasn't and won't be.
    Plus the £350mn/week would be even more correct (increases in budget contribution and the end of the rebate as punishment)
    It is far too obvious that the reason for calling the referendum would only be to deliver the "right" result. The electorate would smell that a mile away, and the campaign materials on arrogance and hubris write themselves. The ultra-Remainers would be totally unprepared for this, and shocked that most people didn't agree with their pre-ordained conclusions, and rapidly panic.

    Electorates hate being taken for granted, or played, as May found out to her cost last year.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232
    @SeanT

    The concept you are looking for is "voluntary patient", also known as an "informal patient". A voluntary patient is someone having in-patient treatment in a psychiatric hospital of their own free will.

    https://www.mind.org.uk/information-support/legal-rights/voluntary-patients/#.W1uGOdJKjIU
    https://www.mind.org.uk/media/5077426/voluntary-patients.pdf
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498

    Very droll!

    Any reason they didn't call him Prince Charles? Future King makes the headline sound weird.
    Prince Charles takes up too much space - too many letters?
    "Charles"? :p
    No, I mean Prince Charles takes up too much space and writes too many letters.
    My point was they could have just used the word Charles. ;)
    I know :)
    Ah, I must have misinterpreted what you said somehow. Sorry!
    I think you just misinterpreted my lame attempts at humour as, eh, well...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited July 2018
    Yea, @HenryGManson is back!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited July 2018

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498

    Very droll!

    Any reason they didn't call him Prince Charles? Future King makes the headline sound weird.
    Prince Charles takes up too much space - too many letters?
    "Charles"? :p
    No, I mean Prince Charles takes up too much space and writes too many letters.
    My point was they could have just used the word Charles. ;)
    I know :)
    Ah, I must have misinterpreted what you said somehow. Sorry!
    I think you just misinterpreted my lame attempts at humour as, eh, well...
    LOL. Okay, now I get it (I'm blind...). :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941


    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    i think you're right and Leave would probably win referendum 2.0

    At least then the Remainers would have to shut up for 30 years, and we would go into the darkness, united. As it were.

    I doubt it. It would just become "well that wasn't the real referendum either, let's have another one, just in case".

    Anyway, as I pointed out earlier today. No Tory PM could ever propose another referendum. It would be the end of our party.
    I think "we said Leave, we meant it" would be very potent. British electorates really don't like a bad loser.

    Ultra-Remainers fail to see this as they've convinced themselves their case has already been proven, which it hasn't and won't be.
    Plus the £350mn/week would be even more correct (increases in budget contribution and the end of the rebate as punishment)
    Or maybe it would be even less accurate when they double our rebate in my preferred hypothetical?

    Edit: as reward.
    Chance of that happening: 0.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498

    Very droll!

    Any reason they didn't call him Prince Charles? Future King makes the headline sound weird.
    Prince Charles takes up too much space - too many letters?
    "Charles"? :p
    No, I mean Prince Charles takes up too much space and writes too many letters.
    My point was they could have just used the word Charles. ;)
    I know :)
    Ah, I must have misinterpreted what you said somehow. Sorry!
    I think you just misinterpreted my lame attempts at humour as, eh, well...
    Haha, I only just got it from looking back, bit too subtle for me missed it completely.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited July 2018

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    i think you're right and Leave would probably win referendum 2.0

    At least then the Remainers would have to shut up for 30 years, and we would go into the darkness, united. As it were.

    I doubt it. It would just become "well that wasn't the real referendum either, let's have another one, just in case".

    Anyway, as I pointed out earlier today. No Tory PM could ever propose another referendum. It would be the end of our party.
    I think "we said Leave, we meant it" would be very potent. British electorates really don't like a bad loser.

    Ultra-Remainers fail to see this as they've convinced themselves their case has already been proven, which it hasn't and won't be.
    Plus the £350mn/week would be even more correct (increases in budget contribution and the end of the rebate as punishment)
    It is far too obvious that the reason for calling the referendum would only be to deliver the "right" result. The electorate would smell that a mile away, and the campaign materials on arrogance and hubris write themselves. The ultra-Remainers would be totally unprepared for this, and shocked that most people didn't agree with their pre-ordained conclusions, and rapidly panic.

    Electorates hate being taken for granted, or played, as May found out to her cost last year.
    I tend to agree with you. However, I still see sense in having the electorate rubber stamp a 'No Deal' if that is what it's to be. The choice should be No Deal or Remain; the government should stay neutral and TMay not campaign as whoever she didn't campaign for would have an unfair advantage ;).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Disappointed no one headlined this 'Prince Charles: Pedo defensor'

    twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1022935090119274498

    Very droll!

    Any reason they didn't call him Prince Charles? Future King makes the headline sound weird.
    Prince Charles takes up too much space - too many letters?
    "Charles"? :p
    No, I mean Prince Charles takes up too much space and writes too many letters.
    My point was they could have just used the word Charles. ;)
    I know :)
    Ah, I must have misinterpreted what you said somehow. Sorry!
    I think you just misinterpreted my lame attempts at humour as, eh, well...
    LOL. Okay, now I get it (I'm blind...). :D
    If I still had a day job, I'd not be giving it up!
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    kle4 said:


    twitter.com/politicshome/status/1022925842299736069

    Surely that should be "Christians drink blood and eat bodies" (after the priest does the transubstantiation business with the bread and wine on Sundays?)
    Does it count if one believes in consubstantiation?
    Who can say? I do not believe in any of this supernatural stuff, but lots of people seem to do so ... almost a national pastime :D
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    RobD said:


    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    i think you're right and Leave would probably win referendum 2.0

    At least then the Remainers would have to shut up for 30 years, and we would go into the darkness, united. As it were.

    I doubt it. It would just become "well that wasn't the real referendum either, let's have another one, just in case".

    Anyway, as I pointed out earlier today. No Tory PM could ever propose another referendum. It would be the end of our party.
    I think "we said Leave, we meant it" would be very potent. British electorates really don't like a bad loser.

    Ultra-Remainers fail to see this as they've convinced themselves their case has already been proven, which it hasn't and won't be.
    Plus the £350mn/week would be even more correct (increases in budget contribution and the end of the rebate as punishment)
    Or maybe it would be even less accurate when they double our rebate in my preferred hypothetical?

    Edit: as reward.
    Chance of that happening: 0.
    The chances of your preferred hypothetical seemed quite low as well, although there are advantages to the EU letting the UK go if we ask to stay having made a mess of trying to leave it works for them as well, there are many reasons for them to want us to stay.

    If we tried to reverse course it would be silly for the EU to then push to make us leave, there have been mentions from various Europeans about Britain changing its mind and staying on the same terms.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:


    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    i think you're right and Leave would probably win referendum 2.0

    At least then the Remainers would have to shut up for 30 years, and we would go into the darkness, united. As it were.

    I doubt it. It would just become "well that wasn't the real referendum either, let's have another one, just in case".

    Anyway, as I pointed out earlier today. No Tory PM could ever propose another referendum. It would be the end of our party.
    I think "we said Leave, we meant it" would be very potent. British electorates really don't like a bad loser.

    Ultra-Remainers fail to see this as they've convinced themselves their case has already been proven, which it hasn't and won't be.
    Plus the £350mn/week would be even more correct (increases in budget contribution and the end of the rebate as punishment)
    Or maybe it would be even less accurate when they double our rebate in my preferred hypothetical?

    Edit: as reward.
    Chance of that happening: 0.
    The chances of your preferred hypothetical seemed quite low as well, although there are advantages to the EU letting the UK go if we ask to stay having made a mess of trying to leave it works for them as well, there are many reasons for them to want us to stay.

    If we tried to reverse course it would be silly for the EU to then push to make us leave, there have been mentions from various Europeans about Britain changing its mind and staying on the same terms.
    What's my preferred hypothetical?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    O/T Anyone seeing the lunar eclipse? It's completely feckin' cloudy here for the first evening in weeks! :(
This discussion has been closed.