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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The road to No Deal: Brexit’s Rubik’s Cube may simply be too d

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited July 28 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The road to No Deal: Brexit’s Rubik’s Cube may simply be too difficult

Rubik’s cubes were very much a craze when I was at primary school in the early 1980s. I had one, my friends had one and millions of people across the world had them. No-one I know ever solved one though. Sure, you could solve one side easily enough but to solve all six? Certainly it was possible – you saw people on television doing it – but we simply didn’t understand the maths or mechanics necessary, and didn’t have the vision or capacity to try.

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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,605
    First! Thanks for the header, David!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 30,135
    Second! Like Remain & Corbyn.....
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,703
    Is anyone advocating a No Deal without a transition phase?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 30,135
    I wouldn't underestimate the potential of the EU Parliament to blow things up. While others have been becoming a bit vaguer about the NI backstop (which cherry picks the Belfast agreement for things which suit it) yesterday their key comment on the outcome of the recent talks was 'no back sliding on the back stop.'

    And while EU27 governments may be alive to the security implications of failing to secure good cooperation, let alone 'no deal':

    Based on evidence from Guy Verhofstadt, we are unconvinced that all of those involved in the Brexit negotiations fully understand the implications of cutting the UK out of shared data platforms, and moving to a model of ‘reciprocal’ data exchange. While we acknowledge that SIS II remains part of the Schengen package of measures, we call on EU27 countries to look beyond political considerations, consult their own law enforcement agencies, and engage fully with the operational impact of locking the UK out of EU law enforcement databases after Brexit.

    https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmhaff/1356/135607.htm
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 30,135
    notme said:

    Is anyone advocating a No Deal without a transition phase?

    If there is 'no deal' there is no 'transition phase', which is part of any deal.

    There is some loose talk about 'no deal = WTO', but there is 'agreed transition to WTO' and 'crash out to WTO'. The latter could happen next March. The former - if it can be agreed, what with the mutually exclusive objectives on Ireland, happens after the transition phase when we've had more time to get things in order.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,028
    The biggest issue with No Deal is on the tax side of things, especially as regards transfer pricing.

    Take a company Z Plc, which has a subsidiary in Estonia, Z Development Eesti. Z Development Eesti is required under transfer pricing rules to charge a market price, and therefore make a c. 8% profit. Which is then dividended back to the parent. It's complex, but it exists to avoid multinationals tax shifting.

    Under current EU rules, Z Plc is shielded from double taxation. If we leave with No Deal, then suddenly those distributions will be subject to withholding tax.

    It'd be a major cost issue for international businesses in the UK.

    And here's the problem: the EU has no competence on tax between EU countries and non-EU ones, and cannot help with this on 1 April 2019 - unless there is a Treaty that says that the UK remains party to the relevant EU directive during a transition or implementation period. The UK and Estonia need to work on new legislation to replicate the existing EU one. This is 27 sets of negotiations that the UK has not even begun to think about doing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,028
    notme said:

    Is anyone advocating a No Deal without a transition phase?

    Jacob Rees-Mogg. Who believes a transition period is "vassalage". His word, not mine.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,879
    rcs1000 said:

    The biggest issue with No Deal is on the tax side of things, especially as regards transfer pricing.

    Take a company Z Plc, which has a subsidiary in Estonia, Z Development Eesti. Z Development Eesti is required under transfer pricing rules to charge a market price, and therefore make a c. 8% profit. Which is then dividended back to the parent. It's complex, but it exists to avoid multinationals tax shifting.

    Under current EU rules, Z Plc is shielded from double taxation. If we leave with No Deal, then suddenly those distributions will be subject to withholding tax.

    It'd be a major cost issue for international businesses in the UK.

    And here's the problem: the EU has no competence on tax between EU countries and non-EU ones, and cannot help with this on 1 April 2019 - unless there is a Treaty that says that the UK remains party to the relevant EU directive during a transition or implementation period. The UK and Estonia need to work on new legislation to replicate the existing EU one. This is 27 sets of negotiations that the UK has not even begun to think about doing.

    That is a big deal, but I’m not sure it’s the biggest one - at least politically.

    We are where we are because a lot of very wealthy right wingers, completely shielded from the day to day consequences of a car crash Brexit, sold a false prospectus to an angry electorate and will not accept they did so. That is not going to change. They will seek to blame foreigners for what might happen, as they always do; and that might work for a while. But it will not solve any of the problems that their laziness, ignorance and mendacity will have created. So at some point it will all come crashing down. Those who funded it all will make a fortune, though. Phew.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,918
    Good morning, everyone.

    Bit sleepy, but good article, Mr. Herdson. An alternative would be the old second referendum option.

    Mind you, always the chance of intransigence/complacency leading to disaster.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,350
    We are heading for another vote.

    There is no version of Brexit that meets the 5 tests set out.

    Cancelling Brexit meets 4 of them

    – Gain the acceptance of enough of the other 27 EU member states to pass the QMV threshold.
    – Gain the support of the House of Commons.
    – Gain the support of the European Parliament.
    Not provoke a leadership challenge within her party, either directly from her MPs or as a consequence of cabinet / government resignations.
    – Retain the support of the DUP.

    but it would need public approval.

    The Tories are screwed as a party of Government whatever happens.

    A Fuck business Brexit, complete with ration cards doesn't secure their future any better than rerunning the vote.

    Voting again is the worst option, apart from ALL the rest.

    BTW, My record time for solving the Rubik's Cube is 66 seconds...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,879
    Rees Mogg, Johnson and Gove hanging out with a white supremacist, neo-fascist is directly equivalent to Corbyn hanging out with avowed anti-Semites. There is no difference. Disgusting.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-politics-bannon/ex-trump-strategist-bannon-targets-britain-in-anti-eu-campaign-idUSKBN1KH260
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,518
    It is a complete shambles

    I have reached the point where it would be interesting to see post WTO Brexit. Would JRM, Farage and the usual suspects be the first against the wall when the revolution comes?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,350

    Rees Mogg, Johnson and Gove hanging out with a white supremacist, neo-fascist is directly equivalent to Corbyn hanging out with avowed anti-Semites. There is no difference. Disgusting.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-politics-bannon/ex-trump-strategist-bannon-targets-britain-in-anti-eu-campaign-idUSKBN1KH260

    A split in the Tory party, where the headbangers stand under their own Trump banner would be helpful.

    "Moderate" Labour MPs should do likewise.

    A realignment along genuine policy grounds rather than party banners would be perhaps the only good thing to come from this fiasco
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,879

    It is a complete shambles

    I have reached the point where it would be interesting to see post WTO Brexit. Would JRM, Farage and the usual suspects be the first against the wall when the revolution comes?

    Rees Mogg and his hedge fund mates are going to make an absolute killing from a no deal Brexit. People who already have more money than they could ever hope to spend will get a shedload more. And then - patriotically - they will do all they can to ensure that as little of it as possible is redistributed in ways that might benefit the millions of Brits that a no deal Brexit will inflict huge harm on.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,918
    F1: bloody hell. Force India are in administration:


    They came 4th last year. The idea a team so successful (best of the midfield) can be in such difficulty is indicative of the lopsided financial field they're playing on.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 19,338
    Scott_P said:

    We are heading for another vote.

    There is no version of Brexit that meets the 5 tests set out.

    Cancelling Brexit meets 4 of them

    – Gain the acceptance of enough of the other 27 EU member states to pass the QMV threshold.
    – Gain the support of the House of Commons.
    – Gain the support of the European Parliament.
    Not provoke a leadership challenge within her party, either directly from her MPs or as a consequence of cabinet / government resignations.
    – Retain the support of the DUP.

    but it would need public approval.

    The Tories are screwed as a party of Government whatever happens.

    A Fuck business Brexit, complete with ration cards doesn't secure their future any better than rerunning the vote.

    Voting again is the worst option, apart from ALL the rest.

    BTW, My record time for solving the Rubik's Cube is 66 seconds...

    You are Ed Miliband. Figures.....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,879
    Scott_P said:

    Rees Mogg, Johnson and Gove hanging out with a white supremacist, neo-fascist is directly equivalent to Corbyn hanging out with avowed anti-Semites. There is no difference. Disgusting.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-politics-bannon/ex-trump-strategist-bannon-targets-britain-in-anti-eu-campaign-idUSKBN1KH260

    A split in the Tory party, where the headbangers stand under their own Trump banner would be helpful.

    "Moderate" Labour MPs should do likewise.

    A realignment along genuine policy grounds rather than party banners would be perhaps the only good thing to come from this fiasco

    Unfortunately, first past the post ensures it won’t happen. The Tories are heading right and Labour is heading left, enabled by a voting system that neither party has any incentive to change.

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,518

    It is a complete shambles

    I have reached the point where it would be interesting to see post WTO Brexit. Would JRM, Farage and the usual suspects be the first against the wall when the revolution comes?

    Rees Mogg and his hedge fund mates are going to make an absolute killing from a no deal Brexit. People who already have more money than they could ever hope to spend will get a shedload more. And then - patriotically - they will do all they can to ensure that as little of it as possible is redistributed in ways that might benefit the millions of Brits that a no deal Brexit will inflict huge harm on.

    I agree. The greedy and the selfish cheering on hordes of xenophobes and useful idiots is a bit of a colorful metaphor, but worryingly is probably close to the truth.

    Pethaps burning torches and pitchforks will be needed ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    edited July 28
    Scott_P said:

    Rees Mogg, Johnson and Gove hanging out with a white supremacist, neo-fascist is directly equivalent to Corbyn hanging out with avowed anti-Semites. There is no difference. Disgusting.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-politics-bannon/ex-trump-strategist-bannon-targets-britain-in-anti-eu-campaign-idUSKBN1KH260

    A split in the Tory party, where the headbangers stand under their own Trump banner would be helpful.

    "Moderate" Labour MPs should do likewise.

    A realignment along genuine policy grounds rather than party banners would be perhaps the only good thing to come from this fiasco
    I am irresistibly reminded of Churchill, who thought his plans for a political realignment involving the Liberal Imperialists and Unionist Free Traders 1903 were so far advanced that he actually sent a draft list of possible cabinet ministers to Rosebery.

    A year later he crossed the floor, having realised he was talking nonsense and there was no way either side could work together.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252

    F1: bloody hell. Force India are in administration:



    They came 4th last year. The idea a team so successful (best of the midfield) can be in such difficulty is indicative of the lopsided financial field they're playing on.

    I think it's more to do with the difficulties of the man behind them. Bear in mind, pretty well all F1 teams run at a major loss and have to be bankrolled by somebody. So if that somebody is, say, unable to access money because he's involved in a fraud case, they're in immediate trouble.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 123
    I'm sure most Leavers would regard Jeremy Corbyn with deep suspicion if not outright enmity, despite his unstinting service to their cause pre-2015. I have a strong feeling that as we approach the day of no return the Labour leader will be revealed as a sort of Brexit Gollum, the one who will finally deliver the irrevocable clean break May and Hammond dare not.

    The PM and her company of political hobbits are not going to be able to resist the temptation to stitch up a win-win backroom deal with Barnier and his orcs which looks almost identical to Chequers, but with a few footnote concessions thrown in specifically to frustrate Corbyn's nationalisations, buy British agenda and taxation plans.

    When it comes to the Commons the government will need plenty of Labour votes to see off the ERG-led Tory rebellion, putting the opposition in a difficult position. But JC will ultimately decide to hide his true instincts under the cover of Starmer's six tests not being remotely met, bite off the Remainer finger that feeds him, and whip his hordes through the No lobby gates with only a few of the worst sufferers of Brexit Derangement Syndrome deserting.

    And thus it will be the raddled figure of Corbyn who finally casts the One Union of Power into the Crack of Doom, and takes himself with it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,918
    edited July 28
    Betting Post

    F1: backed Raikkonen for pole, each way 16.

    Right now, forecast is for it to be dry. The Ferrari is looking better than the Mercedes. In qualifying, they have an engine mode the Red Bull does not (Horner reckons engine power deficit will cost them half a second in qualifying). It's also believed the Prancing Horse has some swanky new feature that nobody else does for qualifying pace.

    Reasonable chance of a Ferrari front row.

    Edited extra bit: if it rains, I reserve the right to complain, again, about being cursed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,070
    edited July 28

    notme said:

    Is anyone advocating a No Deal without a transition phase?

    If there is 'no deal' there is no 'transition phase', which is part of any deal.

    There is some loose talk about 'no deal = WTO', but there is 'agreed transition to WTO' and 'crash out to WTO'. The latter could happen next March. The former - if it can be agreed, what with the mutually exclusive objectives on Ireland, happens after the transition phase when we've had more time to get things in order.
    I have been saying for 2 years thst No Deal Brexit is a likely outcome as it is the default.

    In reality though there needs to be Minimum Deal Brexit in order to keep isotopes and planes moving, rather than a true No Deal. As such Minimum Deal Brexit could be compatable with the existing Transition, accepting that the date for imposition of Irish and Channel borders is Dec 20.

    The fault is the governments. We could be like Norway, or we could be like Canada (though Canada minus FTA for a few years) but Cakeism has prevented them having that discussion.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,188
    ydoethur said:

    F1: bloody hell. Force India are in administration:



    They came 4th last year. The idea a team so successful (best of the midfield) can be in such difficulty is indicative of the lopsided financial field they're playing on.

    I think it's more to do with the difficulties of the man behind them. Bear in mind, pretty well all F1 teams run at a major loss and have to be bankrolled by somebody. So if that somebody is, say, unable to access money because he's involved in a fraud case, they're in immediate trouble.
    What is more remarkable is that FI have remained pretty competitive throughout the Mallya saga.
    Meanwhile, there is potential redemption in the shape of a Russian fertiliser billionaire with a racing driver son...
    https://www.racefans.net/2018/07/27/gp3-driver-mazepin-billionaire-father-linked-force-india-f1-buy-in/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,320
    Q: Why is a Rubik’s cube like a penis?

    A: They both get harder the longer you play with them

    As a callow schoolboy that was the first dirty joke I was ever told/then shared.

    Apologies for lowering the tone on David’s excellent piece, I’ll go back to packing my bag.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 123
    edited July 28

    It is a complete shambles

    I have reached the point where it would be interesting to see post WTO Brexit. Would JRM, Farage and the usual suspects be the first against the wall when the revolution comes?

    Rees Mogg and his hedge fund mates are going to make an absolute killing from a no deal Brexit. People who already have more money than they could ever hope to spend will get a shedload more. And then - patriotically - they will do all they can to ensure that as little of it as possible is redistributed in ways that might benefit the millions of Brits that a no deal Brexit will inflict huge harm on.

    I'd be very curious to know why you think that given most City investors are very much against no deal Brexit, because investors will be net losers at least initially. It is certainly true that if you position for No Deal and you are proven right you will make money, and correspondingly lose if there is a deal, but that is the case with every economic event.

    This hedge fund thing has become a bit of a conspiracy theory which has starting doing the rounds more confidently. I personally know several traders who are utterly confident of a deal (I think they are wrong for much the same reasons that remainers were wrong back in 2016) and have their money where their mouths are, and only one the other way.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 843
    No deal and WTO is the default position under article 50, nothing has to be done for it take place, it just happens unless an alternative is agreed.

    I can't see anything meeting the desires of the EU27 ever making it past this parliament, so barring a new parliament which the FTPA makes very hard, we're left with no deal.

    The sooner serious preparation for it occurs the better.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,350

    The sooner serious preparation for it occurs the better.

    JLR, Airbus and Honda should announce they are closing their UK factories sooner, rather than later...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,879
    edited July 28
    JonWC said:

    It is a complete shambles

    I have reached the point where it would be interesting to see post WTO Brexit. Would JRM, Farage and the usual suspects be the first against the wall when the revolution comes?

    Rees Mogg and his hedge fund mates are going to make an absolute killing from a no deal Brexit. People who already have more money than they could ever hope to spend will get a shedload more. And then - patriotically - they will do all they can to ensure that as little of it as possible is redistributed in ways that might benefit the millions of Brits that a no deal Brexit will inflict huge harm on.

    I'd be very curious to know why you think that given most City investors are very much against no deal Brexit, because investors will be net losers at least initially. It is certainly true that if you position for No Deal and you are proven right you will make money, and correspondingly lose if there is a deal, but that is the case with every economic event.

    This hedge fund thing has become a bit of a conspiracy theory which has starting doing the rounds more confidently. I personally know several traders who are utterly confident of a deal (I think they are wrong for much the same reasons that remainers were wrong back in 2016) and have their money where their mouths are, and only one the other way.

    City traders tend not to be hedge fund traders. The hedge funds - which, like Somerset Capital tend not to be based in the City - make their money from events and the consequences of events. That’s why Brexit is so appealing. And the more extreme the Brexit, the bigger the opportunities.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,070
    edited July 28
    JonWC said:

    It is a complete shambles

    I have reached the point where it would be interesting to see post WTO Brexit. Would JRM, Farage and the usual suspects be the first against the wall when the revolution comes?

    Rees Mogg and his hedge fund mates are going to make an absolute killing from a no deal Brexit. People who already have more money than they could ever hope to spend will get a shedload more. And then - patriotically - they will do all they can to ensure that as little of it as possible is redistributed in ways that might benefit the millions of Brits that a no deal Brexit will inflict huge harm on.

    I'd be very curious to know why you think that given most City investors are very much against no deal Brexit, because investors will be net losers at least initially. It is certainly true that if you position for No Deal and you are proven right you will make money, and correspondingly lose if there is a deal, but that is the case with every economic event.

    This hedge fund thing has become a bit of a conspiracy theory which has starting doing the rounds more confidently. I personally know several traders who are utterly confident of a deal (I think they are wrong for much the same reasons that remainers were wrong back in 2016) and have their money where their mouths are, and only one the other way.
    All markets will drop with No Deal, so shorting everything could be possible, but high risk.

    A more moderate strategy for investments is to shift to a cash position* and to investments that earn overseas in reserve currencies such as USD, Yen and Euro, or in foreign companies. European markets are probably more vulnerable than more geographically distant ones. This is the strategy that I have followed with my own portfolio, with only a small amount now at risk in UK companies. Of course my house and government pension are denominated in Sterling so not possible to be completely insulated, but both are good assets for the longer term.

    *While Sterling cash is at risk of further devaluation, it does have the advantage of being able to buy assets at firesale prices during the market dip.

    Decent amount of rain here in Leics.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,093
    JonWC said:

    I'm sure most Leavers would regard Jeremy Corbyn with deep suspicion if not outright enmity, despite his unstinting service to their cause pre-2015. I have a strong feeling that as we approach the day of no return the Labour leader will be revealed as a sort of Brexit Gollum, the one who will finally deliver the irrevocable clean break May and Hammond dare not.

    The PM and her company of political hobbits are not going to be able to resist the temptation to stitch up a win-win backroom deal with Barnier and his orcs which looks almost identical to Chequers, but with a few footnote concessions thrown in specifically to frustrate Corbyn's nationalisations, buy British agenda and taxation plans.

    When it comes to the Commons the government will need plenty of Labour votes to see off the ERG-led Tory rebellion, putting the opposition in a difficult position. But JC will ultimately decide to hide his true instincts under the cover of Starmer's six tests not being remotely met, bite off the Remainer finger that feeds him, and whip his hordes through the No lobby gates with only a few of the worst sufferers of Brexit Derangement Syndrome deserting.

    And thus it will be the raddled figure of Corbyn who finally casts the One Union of Power into the Crack of Doom, and takes himself with it.

    Would it be easier if we just sent a couple of short people to cast Article 50 into the Crack of Doom? If I recall, the book ends with a pan-national government being set up across Middle Earth.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,904

    No deal and WTO is the default position under article 50, nothing has to be done for it take place, it just happens unless an alternative is agreed.

    I can't see anything meeting the desires of the EU27 ever making it past this parliament, so barring a new parliament which the FTPA makes very hard, we're left with no deal.

    The sooner serious preparation for it occurs the better.

    Sadly, I agree. Those whom the gods wish to destroy etc.

    As a patriotic Remainer I fear for my country.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    F1: bloody hell. Force India are in administration:



    They came 4th last year. The idea a team so successful (best of the midfield) can be in such difficulty is indicative of the lopsided financial field they're playing on.

    I think it's more to do with the difficulties of the man behind them. Bear in mind, pretty well all F1 teams run at a major loss and have to be bankrolled by somebody. So if that somebody is, say, unable to access money because he's involved in a fraud case, they're in immediate trouble.
    What is more remarkable is that FI have remained pretty competitive throughout the Mallya saga.
    Meanwhile, there is potential redemption in the shape of a Russian fertiliser billionaire with a racing driver son...
    https://www.racefans.net/2018/07/27/gp3-driver-mazepin-billionaire-father-linked-force-india-f1-buy-in/
    So they will go from being in the shit to riding on the shit?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,362
    Why does anybody have a problem with No Deal?

    We voted for Brexit, not any particular type of Brexit. So, any Brexit ticks the box. No Deal is any type of Brexit, so job done.

    What's to complain about?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,879
    Foxy said:

    JonWC said:

    It is a complete shambles

    I have reached the point where it would be interesting to see post WTO Brexit. Would JRM, Farage and the usual suspects be the first against the wall when the revolution comes?

    Rees Mogg and his hedge fund mates are going to make an absolute killing from a no deal Brexit. People who already have more money than they could ever hope to spend will get a shedload more. And then - patriotically - they will do all they can to ensure that as little of it as possible is redistributed in ways that might benefit the millions of Brits that a no deal Brexit will inflict huge harm on.

    I'd be very curious to know why you think that given most City investors are very much against no deal Brexit, because investors will be net losers at least initially. It is certainly true that if you position for No Deal and you are proven right you will make money, and correspondingly lose if there is a deal, but that is the case with every economic event.

    This hedge fund thing has become a bit of a conspiracy theory which has starting doing the rounds more confidently. I personally know several traders who are utterly confident of a deal (I think they are wrong for much the same reasons that remainers were wrong back in 2016) and have their money where their mouths are, and only one the other way.
    All markets will drop with No Deal, so shorting everything could be possible, but high risk.

    A more moderate strategy for investments is to shift to a cash position* and to investments that earn overseas in reserve currencies such as USD, Yen and Euro, or in foreign companies. European markets are probably more vulnerable than more geographically distant ones. This is the strategy that I have followed with my own portfolio, with only a small amount now at risk in UK companies. Of course my house and government pension are denominated in Sterling so not possible to be completely insulated, but both are good assets for the longer term.

    *While Sterling cash is at risk of further devaluation, it does have the advantage of being able to buy assets at firesale prices during the market dip.

    Decent amount of rain here in Leics.

    No rain in Leamington.

    Cash is king until we have more Brexit certainty. Mine will get busy in April next year.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252

    JonWC said:

    It is a complete shambles

    I have reached the point where it would be interesting to see post WTO Brexit. Would JRM, Farage and the usual suspects be the first against the wall when the revolution comes?

    Rees Mogg and his hedge fund mates are going to make an absolute killing from a no deal Brexit. People who already have more money than they could ever hope to spend will get a shedload more. And then - patriotically - they will do all they can to ensure that as little of it as possible is redistributed in ways that might benefit the millions of Brits that a no deal Brexit will inflict huge harm on.

    I'd be very curious to know why you think that given most City investors are very much against no deal Brexit, because investors will be net losers at least initially. It is certainly true that if you position for No Deal and you are proven right you will make money, and correspondingly lose if there is a deal, but that is the case with every economic event.

    This hedge fund thing has become a bit of a conspiracy theory which has starting doing the rounds more confidently. I personally know several traders who are utterly confident of a deal (I think they are wrong for much the same reasons that remainers were wrong back in 2016) and have their money where their mouths are, and only one the other way.

    City traders tend not to be hedge fund traders. The hedge funds - which, like Somerset Capital tend not to be based in the City - make their money from events and the consequences of events. That’s why Brexit is so appealing. And the more extreme the Brexit, the bigger the opportunities.
    In the interests of OGH not being sued, perhaps it would be as well to clarify that you were not implying Somerset Capital is a hedge fund.

    I know Corbyn said it was but (a) he had to withdraw it (b) he was protected by parliamentary privilege and (c) he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about anyway.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,070

    Why does anybody have a problem with No Deal?

    We voted for Brexit, not any particular type of Brexit. So, any Brexit ticks the box. No Deal is any type of Brexit, so job done.

    What's to complain about?

    A unicorn was promised and a lame donkey delivered.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,879
    edited July 28
    ydoethur said:

    JonWC said:

    It is a complete shambles

    I have reached the point where it would be interesting to see post WTO Brexit. Would JRM, Farage and the usual suspects be the first against the wall when the revolution comes?

    Rees Mogg and his hedge fund mates are going to make an absolute killing from a no deal Brexit. People who already have more money than they could ever hope to spend will get a shedload more. And then - patriotically - they will do all they can to ensure that as little of it as possible is redistributed in ways that might benefit the millions of Brits that a no deal Brexit will inflict huge harm on.

    I'd be very curious to know why you think that given most City investors are very much against no deal Brexit, because investors will be net losers at least initially. It is certainly true that if you position for No Deal and you are proven right you will make money, and correspondingly lose if there is a deal, but that is the case with every economic event.

    This hedge fund thing has become a bit of a conspiracy theory which has starting doing the rounds more confidently. I personally know several traders who are utterly confident of a deal (I think they are wrong for much the same reasons that remainers were wrong back in 2016) and have their money where their mouths are, and only one the other way.

    City traders tend not to be hedge fund traders. The hedge funds - which, like Somerset Capital tend not to be based in the City - make their money from events and the consequences of events. That’s why Brexit is so appealing. And the more extreme the Brexit, the bigger the opportunities.
    In the interests of OGH not being sued, perhaps it would be as well to clarify that you were not implying Somerset Capital is a hedge fund.

    I know Corbyn said it was but (a) he had to withdraw it (b) he was protected by parliamentary privilege and (c) he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about anyway.

    Hedge funds are often based in W1. Somerset Capital is based in SW1. They are not the same places.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,681

    Q: Why is a Rubik’s cube like a penis?

    A: They both get harder the longer you play with them

    As a callow schoolboy that was the first dirty joke I was ever told/then shared.

    Apologies for lowering the tone on David’s excellent piece, I’ll go back to packing my bag.

    The first "dirty joke" I can recall from prep school was

    "Madam to Butler in sultry voice

    James ..take off my coat
    James.. take off my dress
    James take off my bra
    James take off my panties

    ..and James.... Don't wear my clothes again.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,499
    Great read. This site really is much better than almost all of the newspaper commentary.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,887

    No deal and WTO is the default position under article 50, nothing has to be done for it take place, it just happens unless an alternative is agreed.

    I can't see anything meeting the desires of the EU27 ever making it past this parliament, so barring a new parliament which the FTPA makes very hard, we're left with no deal.

    The sooner serious preparation for it occurs the better.

    I may be out-of-date on this but the WTO part also seems to involve non-trivial negotiations, and probably concessions to Johnny Foreigner that Tory MPs won't like. See the end of this piece:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-wto/britain-asks-to-join-wto-procurement-deal-in-latest-brexit-step-idUSKCN1J11TK

    The British government has been unable to successfully conclude negotiations with itself let alone the EU. Why is everyone assuming they'll be able to get the WTO deal done?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,362
    Thanks for the article, David. There is nothing new in what you say but you express the problem with admiral clarity and brevity.

    Fwiw, my own view is that No Deal is the likeliest outcome. Next most likely is No Deal with Emergency Measures. Next most likely is a second referendum and sharp reversal of direction - an 'oh shit, what have we done referendum'.
    Next most likely is some kind of fudge which passes for Brexit but isn't really but 'it will have to do'.

    As a betting man, what's the odds?

    I'd say about 2/1, 3/1, 4/1 and 8/1 respectively, the rest of the book being made up of outrageous outsiders that nobody currently thinks possible - adults entering the room and taking over, for example, to clean up the mess the children have made.

    Incidentally, am I alone in thinking that all these outcomes imply a Corbyn-led Government after the next GE? And am I alone in betting accordingly?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,188

    No deal and WTO is the default position under article 50, nothing has to be done for it take place, it just happens unless an alternative is agreed.

    I can't see anything meeting the desires of the EU27 ever making it past this parliament, so barring a new parliament which the FTPA makes very hard, we're left with no deal.

    The sooner serious preparation for it occurs the better.

    I may be out-of-date on this but the WTO part also seems to involve non-trivial negotiations, and probably concessions to Johnny Foreigner that Tory MPs won't like. See the end of this piece:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-wto/britain-asks-to-join-wto-procurement-deal-in-latest-brexit-step-idUSKCN1J11TK

    The British government has been unable to successfully conclude negotiations with itself let alone the EU. Why is everyone assuming they'll be able to get the WTO deal done?
    European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom told Reuters in Geneva on Monday that the agriculture question was still unresolved.

    “There is no progress on agreeing the terms of Brexit (at the WTO),” she said.


    That sounds alarmingly similar in tone to Barnier as he has oh so reasonably filleted the government’s efforts to negotiate any concessions for Britain.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 123

    JonWC said:

    It is a complete shambles

    I have reached the point where it would be interesting to see post WTO Brexit. Would JRM, Farage and the usual suspects be the first against the wall when the revolution comes?



    I'd be very curious to know why you think that given most City investors are very much against no deal Brexit, because investors will be net losers at least initially. It is certainly true that if you position for No Deal and you are proven right you will make money, and correspondingly lose if there is a deal, but that is the case with every economic event.

    This hedge fund thing has become a bit of a conspiracy theory which has starting doing the rounds more confidently. I personally know several traders who are utterly confident of a deal (I think they are wrong for much the same reasons that remainers were wrong back in 2016) and have their money where their mouths are, and only one the other way.

    City traders tend not to be hedge fund traders. The hedge funds - which, like Somerset Capital tend not to be based in the City - make their money from events and the consequences of events. That’s why Brexit is so appealing. And the more extreme the Brexit, the bigger the opportunities.
    You are really wrong about this. Hedge fund traders are indeed a subcategory or all traders, though real money guys (pension funds etc) will also have their positions it just will be via being less long of certain assets than their benchmarks. And yes physically a lot of them in are in Mayfair rather than in the Square Mile not that it makes any odds.

    Hedge funds in the large have not been hedge funds in any meaningful sense for decades. When equities go down they tend to lose money. The sub-sub-category you are talking in are the so-called macro funds who make their money betting on economic events. Those tend to be the famous names like Soros, Tudor and Tiger (Alan Howard of BREVAN Howard maybe the best known today, which is not very well known at all).

    If the view amongst macro traders is that a deal will be done, and quite probably it will be their view as experience has taught us the the EU usually cobbles something together at the last minute which then has to be repaired ad infinitem, then they will net lose money if there is no deal. The only way they will make a tonne of money if there is no deal is if a deal is mostly priced in, it falls apart at the last minute, AND THEY WERE EXPECTING THAT OUTCOME.

    I'm pretty sure this site is mostly blocked at work but will try to get them to look. It'll get a wry 'we're so misunderstood' type smile but probably not any further response.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    edited July 28

    Incidentally, am I alone in thinking that all these outcomes imply a Corbyn-led Government after the next GE? And am I alone in betting accordingly?

    Well, they might if considered in isolation. It does depend on (a) whether he's still leader (b) how split his own party is (c) when the election is held (d) who is leading the Conservatives.

    Oh and (e) how many of the Labour Party are under investigation for hate speech/speeding offences/violence/accusing the Leader of being racist.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,362
    Foxy said:

    Why does anybody have a problem with No Deal?

    We voted for Brexit, not any particular type of Brexit. So, any Brexit ticks the box. No Deal is any type of Brexit, so job done.

    What's to complain about?

    A unicorn was promised and a lame donkey delivered.
    Caveat emptor, Foxy, caveat emptor.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,904
    JonWC said:

    JonWC said:

    It is a complete shambles

    I have reached the point where it would be interesting to see post WTO Brexit. Would JRM, Farage and the usual suspects be the first against the wall when the revolution comes?



    I'd be very curious to know why you think that given most City investors are very much against no deal Brexit, because investors will be net losers at least initially. It is certainly true that if you position for No Deal and you are proven right you will make money, and correspondingly lose if there is a deal, but that is the case with every economic event.

    This hedge fund thing has become a bit of a conspiracy theory which has starting doing the rounds more confidently. I personally know several traders who are utterly confident of a deal (I think they are wrong for much the same reasons that remainers were wrong back in 2016) and have their money where their mouths are, and only one the other way.

    City traders tend not to be hedge fund traders. The hedge funds - which, like Somerset Capital tend not to be based in the City - make their money from events and the consequences of events. That’s why Brexit is so appealing. And the more extreme the Brexit, the bigger the opportunities.
    You are really wrong about this. Hedge fund traders are indeed a subcategory or all traders, though real money guys (pension funds etc) will also have their positions it just will be via being less long of certain assets than their benchmarks. And yes physically a lot of them in are in Mayfair rather than in the Square Mile not that it makes any odds.

    Hedge funds in the large have not been hedge funds in any meaningful sense for decades. When equities go down they tend to lose money. The sub-sub-category you are talking in are the so-called macro funds who make their money betting on economic events. Those tend to be the famous names like Soros, Tudor and Tiger (Alan Howard of BREVAN Howard maybe the best known today, which is not very well known at all).

    If the view amongst macro traders is that a deal will be done, and quite probably it will be their view as experience has taught us the the EU usually cobbles something together at the last minute which then has to be repaired ad infinitem, then they will net lose money if there is no deal. The only way they will make a tonne of money if there is no deal is if a deal is mostly priced in, it falls apart at the last minute, AND THEY WERE EXPECTING THAT OUTCOME.

    I'm pretty sure this site is mostly blocked at work but will try to get them to look. It'll get a wry 'we're so misunderstood' type smile but probably not any further response.
    OK, accept that. What IS Somerset Capital then?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,137
    The significant change in the past week, in my view, is the demise of No Deal Planning as a policy concept. Talk of stockpiling food against shortages has disturbed Conservative Party activists. Leavers have constantly berated Remainers for not planning for No Deal and in this way undermining Brexit. (Not that they have done any planning themselves and it is THEIR project. But if we were logical we would never leave the EU in the first place). But actually they really want to talk about sunlit uplands.

    No Deal isn't an end state outcome. Which implies a deal, which will be on the EU's terms. The current blocker to a Withdrawal Agreement is the NI backstop. Leavers - Remainers don't get a say - will need to decide whether to prioritise divergence from the EU over avoiding a regulatory border in the Irish Sea. As divergence is bad for business and the all important DUP are adamantly opposed to an Irish Sea border, the "vassal state" is pretty much nailed on. The question is at what point will Tory leavers accept this.

    Given a choice between an utterly crap Brexit and no Brexit at all, we have to assume Leavers will go for the utter crap. This has been the choice all the long but Leavers have never been in the space where they have accepted that is the choice. It's going to be painful. Remainers aren't driving this so their opinions don't count.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,350

    Fwiw, my own view is that No Deal is the likeliest outcome. Next most likely is No Deal with Emergency Measures. Next most likely is a second referendum and sharp reversal of direction - an 'oh shit, what have we done referendum'.

    Emergency measures are a requirement of No Deal, surely? Stockpiling food and medicines sounds a lot like emergency measures to me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,796
    Brilliant analysis. Which is to say, I agree with it. Particularly on the difficulties of accepting an off the peg EU deal, and why fudging it wont work this time.

    The brinkmanship has gone too far, and noone is stepping back. May is one who might want you, had has a little, but lacks the parliamentary numbers to do so anyway. The EU simply don't care to.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,188

    Thanks for the article, David. There is nothing new in what you say but you express the problem with admiral clarity and brevity.

    Fwiw, my own view is that No Deal is the likeliest outcome. Next most likely is No Deal with Emergency Measures. Next most likely is a second referendum and sharp reversal of direction - an 'oh shit, what have we done referendum'.
    Next most likely is some kind of fudge which passes for Brexit but isn't really but 'it will have to do'.

    As a betting man, what's the odds?

    I'd say about 2/1, 3/1, 4/1 and 8/1 respectively, the rest of the book being made up of outrageous outsiders that nobody currently thinks possible - adults entering the room and taking over, for example, to clean up the mess the children have made.

    Incidentally, am I alone in thinking that all these outcomes imply a Corbyn-led Government after the next GE? And am I alone in betting accordingly?

    You are not. The Tory party, which has survived for so long by being, at root, a party of political trimmers has encountered an issue on which it is simply no longer possible to trim - as May’s increasingly desperate attempts to achieve a compromise have made very clear.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 123
    Foxy said:

    JonWC said:

    It is a complete shambles

    I have reached the point where it would be interesting to see post WTO Brexit. Would JRM, Farage and the usual suspects be the first against the wall when the revolution comes?

    Rees Mogg and his hedge fund mates are going to make an absolute killing from a no deal Brexit. People who already have more money than they could ever hope to spend will get a shedload more. And then - patriotically - they will do all they can to ensure that as little of it as possible is redistributed in ways that might benefit the millions of Brits that a no deal Brexit will inflict huge harm on.

    I'd be very curious to know why you think that given most City investors are very much against no deal Brexit, because investors will be net losers at least initially. It is certainly true that if you position for No Deal and you are proven right you will make money, and correspondingly lose if there is a deal, but that is the case with every economic event.

    This hedge fund thing has become a bit of a conspiracy theory which has starting doing the rounds more confidently. I personally know several traders who are utterly confident of a deal (I think they are wrong for much the same reasons that remainers were wrong back in 2016) and have their money where their mouths are, and only one the other way.
    All markets will drop with No Deal, so shorting everything could be possible, but high risk.

    A more moderate strategy for investments is to shift to a cash position* and to investments that earn overseas in reserve currencies such as USD, Yen and Euro, or in foreign companies. European markets are probably more vulnerable than more geographically distant ones. This is the strategy that I have followed with my own portfolio, with only a small amount now at risk in UK companies. Of course my house and government pension are denominated in Sterling so not possible to be completely insulated, but both are good assets for the longer term.

    *While Sterling cash is at risk of further devaluation, it does have the advantage of being able to buy assets at firesale prices during the market dip.

    Decent amount of rain here in Leics.
    Not all markets by any means. Fixed income could rally if people believe Carney and co cut rates. GBP will almost definitely fall at least initially, so anything which is really a foreign/international company could do well. Miners etc..
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,188
    Scott_P said:

    Fwiw, my own view is that No Deal is the likeliest outcome. Next most likely is No Deal with Emergency Measures. Next most likely is a second referendum and sharp reversal of direction - an 'oh shit, what have we done referendum'.

    Emergency measures are a requirement of No Deal, surely? Stockpiling food and medicines sounds a lot like emergency measures to me.
    I think Peter means emergency measure agreed in advance with the EU which might mitigate No Deal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,070

    Thanks for the article, David. There is nothing new in what you say but you express the problem with admiral clarity and brevity.

    Fwiw, my own view is that No Deal is the likeliest outcome. Next most likely is No Deal with Emergency Measures. Next most likely is a second referendum and sharp reversal of direction - an 'oh shit, what have we done referendum'.
    Next most likely is some kind of fudge which passes for Brexit but isn't really but 'it will have to do'.

    As a betting man, what's the odds?

    I'd say about 2/1, 3/1, 4/1 and 8/1 respectively, the rest of the book being made up of outrageous outsiders that nobody currently thinks possible - adults entering the room and taking over, for example, to clean up the mess the children have made.

    Incidentally, am I alone in thinking that all these outcomes imply a Corbyn-led Government after the next GE? And am I alone in betting accordingly?

    I think that BINO is still a strong possibility, but probably requires a defenestration of May followed by a facing down of the ERG. Overall your odds on outcomes sound about right. 2022 is still some way off, but if a GE happens sooner the Jezza gets into no 10.

    Jezza is good in parts and malodorous in others, but John McDonnell seems increasingly well prepared and pragmatic as CoE. I am pretty relaxed about the prospect.

  • felixfelix Posts: 7,896

    Why does anybody have a problem with No Deal?

    We voted for Brexit, not any particular type of Brexit. So, any Brexit ticks the box. No Deal is any type of Brexit, so job done.

    What's to complain about?

    Here in Spain (SE) it's mostly sunny, very dry and often hot for much of the year. I love it all and people adapt. It'll be the same with Brexit. This morning's armageddon squad on PB seems to be somewhat unhinged - maybe the weather has frazzled the brains.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,362
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, am I alone in thinking that all these outcomes imply a Corbyn-led Government after the next GE? And am I alone in betting accordingly?

    Well, they might if considered in isolation. It does depend on (a) whether he's still leader (b) how split his own party is (c) when the election is held (d) who is leading the Conservatives.

    Oh and (e) how many of the Labour Party are under investigation for hate speech/speeding offences/violence/accusing the Leader of being racist.
    Well, Labour Most Seats is the best bet them?

    I take your point(s) Ydoethur. It may take a while and it could easily be that instead of Corbyn we could be treated to a McDonnell government, for example. What fun!

    Btw, what particular Tory Leader do you have in mind? I thought the general consensus was that the reason they still have May is that there is no plausible alternative.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,796



    Incidentally, am I alone in thinking that all these outcomes imply a Corbyn-led Government after the next GE? And am I alone in betting accordingly?

    When you consider even if all had gone well there would be an amount of disruption , and the tories woukd have been in office 12 years during a period of stated austerity, I think it was always going to be hard to come out on top again. Mire disruptions or impacts from various options make it even more likely.

    12 years would be a good run. I think avoiding a demolishing needs to be the aim. Given the inability of the tories to agree a position given 2 years to do so , i think Corbyn will walk it. It only take s a few more not to fear him, in order to win.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,918
    Found this somewhat interested to skim (about fake news) but it does miss a fundamental point.

    What if I create a hilarious meme or witty slogan/picture? And post it to my own account. And everybody shares it. It'll be hugely beneficial to one side, but can't possibly be governed by any of these proposals. You can't legitimately stop people taking the piss or putting forward their own case (just as we all do here).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-44967650
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,350

    I thought the general consensus was that the reason they still have May is that there is no plausible alternative.

    That is shaped by context.

    There is no plausible alternative to May who can deliver a "better Brexit" than May herself.

    If the political imperative changes to "beat Corbyn" or "reverse A50" different names would perhaps emerge.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,362
    kle4 said:



    Incidentally, am I alone in thinking that all these outcomes imply a Corbyn-led Government after the next GE? And am I alone in betting accordingly?

    When you consider even if all had gone well there would be an amount of disruption , and the tories woukd have been in office 12 years during a period of stated austerity, I think it was always going to be hard to come out on top again. Mire disruptions or impacts from various options make it even more likely.

    12 years would be a good run. I think avoiding a demolishing needs to be the aim. Given the inability of the tories to agree a position given 2 years to do so , i think Corbyn will walk it. It only take s a few more not to fear him, in order to win.
    People may be past caring, Kle4.

    The biggest fear has long been that Corbyn (or his surrogates) will takes us on the Road to Venezuela. Since the Tories will have already taken us down the Road to Brexit, Venezuela may not look too bad by then.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,137

    Thanks for the article, David. There is nothing new in what you say but you express the problem with admiral clarity and brevity.

    Fwiw, my own view is that No Deal is the likeliest outcome. Next most likely is No Deal with Emergency Measures. Next most likely is a second referendum and sharp reversal of direction - an 'oh shit, what have we done referendum'.
    Next most likely is some kind of fudge which passes for Brexit but isn't really but 'it will have to do'.

    As a betting man, what's the odds?

    I'd say about 2/1, 3/1, 4/1 and 8/1 respectively, the rest of the book being made up of outrageous outsiders that nobody currently thinks possible - adults entering the room and taking over, for example, to clean up the mess the children have made.

    Incidentally, am I alone in thinking that all these outcomes imply a Corbyn-led Government after the next GE? And am I alone in betting accordingly?

    Although No Deal is an outcome with a high probability it isn't a viable end state in my opinion. There will be a crisis and there will be a deal. The question is how those two play out. No Deal will see the greatest humiliation for the UK, which will rebound on the Conservative Party. Party loyalists should strain every sinew to avoid it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,796

    Why does anybody have a problem with No Deal?

    We voted for Brexit, not any particular type of Brexit. So, any Brexit ticks the box. No Deal is any type of Brexit, so job done.

    What's to complain about?

    Yes it ticks the box, as does BINO, but there's nothing unreasonable about people thinking a particular leave option would be better or worse than another, only a problem if that option were called illegitimate.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,070
    JonWC said:

    Foxy said:

    JonWC said:

    It is a complete shambles

    I have reached the point where it would be interesting to see post WTO Brexit. Would JRM, Farage and the usual suspects be the first against the wall when the revolution comes?

    Rees Mogg and his hedge fund mates are going to make an absolute killing from a no deal Brexit. People who already have more money than they could ever hope to spend will get a shedload more. And then - patriotically - they will do all they can to ensure that as little of it as possible is redistributed in ways that might benefit the millions of Brits that a no deal Brexit will inflict huge harm on.

    I'd be very curious to know why you
    All markets will drop with No Deal, so shorting everything could be possible, but high risk.

    A more moderate strategy for investments is to shift to a cash position* and to investments that earn overseas in reserve currencies such as USD, Yen and Euro, or in foreign companies. European markets are probably more vulnerable than more geographically distant ones. This is the strategy that I have followed with my own portfolio, with only a small amount now at risk in UK companies. Of course my house and government pension are denominated in Sterling so not possible to be completely insulated, but both are good assets for the longer term.

    *While Sterling cash is at risk of further devaluation, it does have the advantage of being able to buy assets at firesale prices during the market dip.

    Decent amount of rain here in Leics.
    Not all markets by any means. Fixed income could rally if people believe Carney and co cut rates. GBP will almost definitely fall at least initially, so anything which is really a foreign/international company could do well. Miners etc..
    Miners seem a bit over priced to me at present*, and the potential for a reduced Chinese demand very likely if Trade War hots up. I favour international consumer goods companies such as Diageo, RB and a number of smaller international food producers.

    *my exception is copper, which I think has a bright future with electric cars etc.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,796
    Foxy said:

    Thanks for the article, David. There is nothing new in what you say but you express the problem with admiral clarity and brevity.

    Fwiw, my own view is that No Deal is the likeliest outcome. Next most likely is No Deal with Emergency Measures. Next most likely is a second referendum and sharp reversal of direction - an 'oh shit, what have we done referendum'.
    Next most likely is some kind of fudge which passes for Brexit but isn't really but 'it will have to do'.

    As a betting man, what's the odds?

    I'd say about 2/1, 3/1, 4/1 and 8/1 respectively, the rest of the book being made up of outrageous outsiders that nobody currently thinks possible - adults entering the room and taking over, for example, to clean up the mess the children have made.

    Incidentally, am I alone in thinking that all these outcomes imply a Corbyn-led Government after the next GE? And am I alone in betting accordingly?

    I think that BINO is still a strong possibility, but probably requires a defenestration of May followed by a facing down of the ERG. Overall your odds on outcomes sound about right. 2022 is still some way off, but if a GE happens sooner the Jezza gets into no 10.

    Jezza is good in parts and malodorous in others, but John McDonnell seems increasingly well prepared and pragmatic as CoE. I am pretty relaxed about the prospect.

    If there were numbers to face down the ERG May would not need defenesteating. She looked like she tried, but backed down. And That was on something more than BINO.

    I'm sticking with 75% no deal. The no dealers are clear on what they want, and people who are certain can bear others along with them even if it seems given all those opposed they should fail. Cross party support is needed for a deal, and no one thinks that likely (plus as David points out even getting a deal to accept is tricky).
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,362
    FF43 said:

    Thanks for the article, David. There is nothing new in what you say but you express the problem with admiral clarity and brevity.

    Fwiw, my own view is that No Deal is the likeliest outcome. Next most likely is No Deal with Emergency Measures. Next most likely is a second referendum and sharp reversal of direction - an 'oh shit, what have we done referendum'.
    Next most likely is some kind of fudge which passes for Brexit but isn't really but 'it will have to do'.

    As a betting man, what's the odds?

    I'd say about 2/1, 3/1, 4/1 and 8/1 respectively, the rest of the book being made up of outrageous outsiders that nobody currently thinks possible - adults entering the room and taking over, for example, to clean up the mess the children have made.

    Incidentally, am I alone in thinking that all these outcomes imply a Corbyn-led Government after the next GE? And am I alone in betting accordingly?

    Although No Deal is an outcome with a high probability it isn't a viable end state in my opinion. There will be a crisis and there will be a deal. The question is how those two play out. No Deal will see the greatest humiliation for the UK, which will rebound on the Conservative Party. Party loyalists should strain every sinew to avoid it.
    But FF, to a true Leaver, consequences don't matter. I've spoken to enough. As long as we get out of the EU, it will all be worth it.

    No Deal remains favorite. ND plus crisis measures, as you suggest, still second favorite in my book.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,796

    kle4 said:



    Incidentally, am I alone in thinking that all these outcomes imply a Corbyn-led Government after the next GE? And am I alone in betting accordingly?

    When you consider even if all had gone well there would be an amount of disruption , and the tories woukd have been in office 12 years during a period of stated austerity, I think it was always going to be hard to come out on top again. Mire disruptions or impacts from various options make it even more likely.

    12 years would be a good run. I think avoiding a demolishing needs to be the aim. Given the inability of the tories to agree a position given 2 years to do so , i think Corbyn will walk it. It only take s a few more not to fear him, in order to win.
    People may be past caring, Kle4.

    The biggest fear has long been that Corbyn (or his surrogates) will takes us on the Road to Venezuela. Since the Tories will have already taken us down the Road to Brexit, Venezuela may not look too bad by then.
    I think that is the case. Or at least, enough people will cease to care, plus general weariness of 12 years of the tories and some unhappy members staying at home, means Corbyn will edge it at worst.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 123
    Foxy said:

    JonWC said:

    Foxy said:

    JonWC said:

    It is a complete shambles

    I have reached the point where it would be interesting to see post WTO Brexit. Would JRM, Farage and the usual suspects be the first against the wall when the revolution comes?

    Rees Mogg and his hedge fund mates are going to make an absolute killing from a no deal Brexit. People who already have more money than they could ever hope to spend will get a shedload more. And then - patriotically - they will do all they can to ensure that as little of it as possible is redistributed in ways that might benefit the millions of Brits that a no deal Brexit will inflict huge harm on.

    I'd be very curious to know why you
    All markets will drop with No Deal, so shorting everything could be possible, but high risk.

    A more moderate strategy for investments is to shift to a cash position* and to investments that earn overseas in reserve currencies such as USD, Yen and Euro, or in foreign companies. European markets are probably more vulnerable than more geographically distant ones. This is the strategy that I have followed with my own portfolio, with only a small amount now at risk in UK companies. Of course my house and government pension are denominated in Sterling so not possible to be completely insulated, but both are good assets for the longer term.

    *While Sterling cash is at risk of further devaluation, it does have the advantage of being able to buy assets at firesale prices during the market dip.

    Decent amount of rain here in Leics.
    Not all markets by any means. Fixed income could rally if people believe Carney and co cut rates. GBP will almost definitely fall at least initially, so anything which is really a foreign/international company could do well. Miners etc..
    Miners seem a bit over priced to me at present*, and the potential for a reduced Chinese demand very likely if Trade War hots up. I favour international consumer goods companies such as Diageo, RB and a number of smaller international food producers.

    *my exception is copper, which I think has a bright future with electric cars etc.
    tend to agree
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,070
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Thanks for the article, David. There is nothing new in what you say but you express the problem with admiral clarity and brevity.

    Fwiw, my own view is that No Deal is the likeliest outcome. Next most likely is No Deal with Emergency Measures. Next most likely is a second referendum and sharp reversal of direction - an 'oh shit, what have we done referendum'.
    Next most likely is some kind of fudge which passes for Brexit but isn't really but 'it will have to do'.

    As a betting man, what's the odds?

    I'd say about 2/1, 3/1, 4/1 and 8/1 respectively, the rest of the book being made up of outrageous outsiders that nobody currently thinks possible - adults entering the room and taking over, for example, to clean up the mess the children have made.

    Incidentally, am I alone in thinking that all these outcomes imply a Corbyn-led Government after the next GE? And am I alone in betting accordingly?

    I think that BINO is still a strong possibility, but probably requires a defenestration of May followed by a facing down of the ERG. Overall your odds on outcomes sound about right. 2022 is still some way off, but if a GE happens sooner the Jezza gets into no 10.

    Jezza is good in parts and malodorous in others, but John McDonnell seems increasingly well prepared and pragmatic as CoE. I am pretty relaxed about the prospect.

    If there were numbers to face down the ERG May would not need defenesteating. She looked like she tried, but backed down. And That was on something more than BINO.

    I'm sticking with 75% no deal. The no dealers are clear on what they want, and people who are certain can bear others along with them even if it seems given all those opposed they should fail. Cross party support is needed for a deal, and no one thinks that likely (plus as David points out even getting a deal to accept is tricky).
    I think the mechanism of BINO is for Hammond to take over (more defacto than as PM). Likely to lead to further cabinet resignations and a VoNC in May. It could happen towards the end of the year, and I could see such a package being endorsed by Starmer. Not very likely, but Hammond is one of the few adults in the room and has a knack of winning the battles that he chooses to fight.

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,362
    kle4 said:

    Why does anybody have a problem with No Deal?

    We voted for Brexit, not any particular type of Brexit. So, any Brexit ticks the box. No Deal is any type of Brexit, so job done.

    What's to complain about?

    Yes it ticks the box, as does BINO, but there's nothing unreasonable about people thinking a particular leave option would be better or worse than another, only a problem if that option were called illegitimate.
    All points on the range from BINO to ND are legitimate, K. David's article spells out precisely why we are highly likely to finish up at the ND end of the spectrum.

    And there really can be no complaints. It is what we voted for. As our mutual friend Sunil is fond of pointing out - '52%/48%'.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,009
    I’m still expecting a deal. The nutters will howl of betrayal and it will be equally unpopular with unreconciled Remainers, but the alternative of chaotic departure would be too great a self-inflicted wound and the EU will ultimately make minimal concessions to obtain some stability with a large neighbour.

    No Deal would also require the pre-Brexit departure of Theresa May, whose entire government policy would have failed. Who would replace her?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,796

    kle4 said:

    Why does anybody have a problem with No Deal?

    We voted for Brexit, not any particular type of Brexit. So, any Brexit ticks the box. No Deal is any type of Brexit, so job done.

    What's to complain about?

    Yes it ticks the box, as does BINO, but there's nothing unreasonable about people thinking a particular leave option would be better or worse than another, only a problem if that option were called illegitimate.
    All points on the range from BINO to ND are legitimate, K. David's article spells out precisely why we are highly likely to finish up at the ND end of the spectrum.

    And there really can be no complaints. It is what we voted for. As our mutual friend Sunil is fond of pointing out - '52%/48%'.
    Not no complaints. But it was always a risk which was possible. I certainly underestimated the level of that risk unfortunately.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,009
    Labour most seats is a bet I’m very fond of. If the Conservatives were to split, as seems entirely possible, Labour might not even need to win any more seats for that bet to come home.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,918
    Mr. Meeks, don't think we'll end up with a second referendum?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,188
    edited July 28
    For those who care, Jason Gillespie has some interesting comments on the Rashid affair:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2018/jul/27/adil-rashid-yorkshire-england-red-ball-cricket
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,796

    I’m still expecting a deal. The nutters will howl of betrayal and it will be equally unpopular with unreconciled Remainers, but the alternative of chaotic departure would be too great a self-inflicted wound and the EU will ultimately make minimal concessions to obtain some stability with a large neighbour.

    No Deal would also require the pre-Brexit departure of Theresa May, whose entire government policy would have failed. Who would replace her?

    The problem is all the options, from BINO to remain to no deal, all look very hard to achieve, yet we know one of them has to. The nutters and unreconciled remainers as you put it seem too numerous to me to accept a deal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,070

    I’m still expecting a deal. The nutters will howl of betrayal and it will be equally unpopular with unreconciled Remainers, but the alternative of chaotic departure would be too great a self-inflicted wound and the EU will ultimately make minimal concessions to obtain some stability with a large neighbour.

    No Deal would also require the pre-Brexit departure of Theresa May, whose entire government policy would have failed. Who would replace her?

    Surely one of the lessons of recent years is that just because an outcome is stupid and self destructing, that is no reason for it to not happen?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 19,338
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    Fwiw, my own view is that No Deal is the likeliest outcome. Next most likely is No Deal with Emergency Measures. Next most likely is a second referendum and sharp reversal of direction - an 'oh shit, what have we done referendum'.

    Emergency measures are a requirement of No Deal, surely? Stockpiling food and medicines sounds a lot like emergency measures to me.
    I think Peter means emergency measure agreed in advance with the EU which might mitigate No Deal.
    Their price for such a bundle of emergency measures will be, ooh, at a guess - forty billion?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,009

    Mr. Meeks, don't think we'll end up with a second referendum?

    Perhaps. But not yet. Public opinion has to shift before one can be justified. That hasn’t happened yet, but it might.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,896

    I’m still expecting a deal. The nutters will howl of betrayal and it will be equally unpopular with unreconciled Remainers, but the alternative of chaotic departure would be too great a self-inflicted wound and the EU will ultimately make minimal concessions to obtain some stability with a large neighbour.

    No Deal would also require the pre-Brexit departure of Theresa May, whose entire government policy would have failed. Who would replace her?

    I’m still expecting a deal. The nutters will howl of betrayal and it will be equally unpopular with unreconciled Remainers, but the alternative of chaotic departure would be too great a self-inflicted wound and the EU will ultimately make minimal concessions to obtain some stability with a large neighbour.

    No Deal would also require the pre-Brexit departure of Theresa May, whose entire government policy would have failed. Who would replace her?

    At last - some sense!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,009
    Foxy said:

    I’m still expecting a deal. The nutters will howl of betrayal and it will be equally unpopular with unreconciled Remainers, but the alternative of chaotic departure would be too great a self-inflicted wound and the EU will ultimately make minimal concessions to obtain some stability with a large neighbour.

    No Deal would also require the pre-Brexit departure of Theresa May, whose entire government policy would have failed. Who would replace her?

    Surely one of the lessons of recent years is that just because an outcome is stupid and self destructing, that is no reason for it to not happen?
    I don’t rule out No Deal for that reason. You only have to look round pb to see how many unhinged Leavers there are.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,796
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Thanks for the article, David. There is nothing new in what you say but you express the problem with admiral clarity and brevity.

    Fwiw, my own view is that No Deal is the likeliest outcome. Next most likely is No Deal with Emergency Measures. Next most likely is a second referendum and sharp reversal of direction - an 'oh shit, what have we done referendum'.
    Next most likely is some kind of fudge which passes for Brexit but isn't really but 'it will have to do'.

    As a betting man, what's the odds?

    I'd say about 2/1, 3/1, 4/1 and 8/1 respectively, the rest of the book being made up of outrageous outsiders that nobody currently thinks possible - adults entering the room and taking over, for example, to clean up the mess the children have made.

    Incidentally, am I alone in thinking that all these outcomes imply a Corbyn-led Government after the next GE? And am I alone in betting accordingly?

    I think that BINO is still a strong possibility, but probably requires a defenestration of May followed by a facing down of the ERG. Overall your odds on outcomes sound about right. 2022 is still some way off, but if a GE happens sooner the Jezza gets into no 10.

    Jezza is good in parts and malodorous in others, but John McDonnell seems increasingly well prepared and pragmatic as CoE. I am pretty relaxed about the prospect.

    If there were numbers to face down the ERG May would not need defenesteating. She looked like she tried, but backed down. And That was on something more than BINO.

    I'm sticking with 75% no deal. The no dealers are clear on what they want, and people who are certain can bear others along with them even if it seems given all those opposed they should fail. Cross party support is needed for a deal, and no one thinks that likely (plus as David points out even getting a deal to accept is tricky).
    I think the mechanism of BINO is for Hammond to take over (more defacto than as PM). Likely to lead to further cabinet resignations and a VoNC in May. It could happen towards the end of the year, and I could see such a package being endorsed by Starmer. Not very likely, but Hammond is one of the few adults in the room and has a knack of winning the battles that he chooses to fight.

    But would not backing a deal throw a wrench into Corbyn's 'masterly inactivity' strategy. The Tories will have negotiated it and would take the bigger hit from any consequences, but labour could not sit apart from it as he seems to want.

    Even with Starmer somewhat doing his own thing at times, I don't see how Labour back a tory negotiated deal politically. Their position has been fluid precisely as they don't want to commit either.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 123
    edited July 28

    .

    OK, accept that. What IS Somerset Capital then?

    I confess I'd never even heard of it despite working in the industry for years. It seems to be a specialist emerging market fund so its activities and investments have bugger all to do with Brexit!

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,137

    FF43 said:

    Thanks for the article, David. There is nothing new in what you say but you express the problem with admiral clarity and brevity.

    Fwiw, my own view is that No Deal is the likeliest outcome. Next most likely is No Deal with Emergency Measures. Next most likely is a second referendum and sharp reversal of direction - an 'oh shit, what have we done referendum'.
    Next most likely is some kind of fudge which passes for Brexit but isn't really but 'it will have to do'.

    As a betting man, what's the odds?

    I'd say about 2/1, 3/1, 4/1 and 8/1 respectively, the rest of the book being made up of outrageous outsiders that nobody currently thinks possible - adults entering the room and taking over, for example, to clean up the mess the children have made.

    Incidentally, am I alone in thinking that all these outcomes imply a Corbyn-led Government after the next GE? And am I alone in betting accordingly?

    Although No Deal is an outcome with a high probability it isn't a viable end state in my opinion. There will be a crisis and there will be a deal. The question is how those two play out. No Deal will see the greatest humiliation for the UK, which will rebound on the Conservative Party. Party loyalists should strain every sinew to avoid it.
    But FF, to a true Leaver, consequences don't matter. I've spoken to enough. As long as we get out of the EU, it will all be worth it.

    No Deal remains favorite. ND plus crisis measures, as you suggest, still second favorite in my book.
    I think the issue is Leavers denying reality, rather than accepting all consequences. At some point reality will hit and they are going to have to deal with it. Some will opt out ("I'm bored with Brexit"); some will look for compromise; some will fight to the death; a remarkably small number will change their minds. The die hards won't have the numbers, I think. It will be very messy though.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,362
    Nigelb said:

    For those who care, Jason Gillespie has some interesting comments on the Rashid affair:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2018/jul/27/adil-rashid-yorkshire-england-red-ball-cricket

    Thanks, Nigel. I care, but the article only goes part way to explaining the matter.

    It's easy to believe the problem lies in Yorkshire, but there is still no explanation as to why the England selectors preferred first Dawson, then Crane. There are no cricketing grounds for that preference.

    We still can only guess what the real reasons were.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,137
    On the article, the EU is very unlikely to allow permanent state"emergency measures". These will be strictly ad hoc and temporary. It will be pushing for a deal all the time.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 21,542

    Foxy said:

    I’m still expecting a deal. The nutters will howl of betrayal and it will be equally unpopular with unreconciled Remainers, but the alternative of chaotic departure would be too great a self-inflicted wound and the EU will ultimately make minimal concessions to obtain some stability with a large neighbour.

    No Deal would also require the pre-Brexit departure of Theresa May, whose entire government policy would have failed. Who would replace her?

    Surely one of the lessons of recent years is that just because an outcome is stupid and self destructing, that is no reason for it to not happen?
    I don’t rule out No Deal for that reason. You only have to look round pb to see how many unhinged Leavers there are.
    I think it's becoming necessary to distinguish between different No Deal scenarios. If we get to the December summit without a deal, it's possible that the government will be forced into announcing that we are going to leave with No Deal, but that still leaves an agonisingly long time when that plan will have to survive mounting real chaos in the country.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    @Peter_the_Punter

    I sort of agree with @Scott_P (which is not something I've had the chance to say often recently). The Tories are usually happy to roll the dice when things are not going well even if there isn't an easy alternative. Even when there is - Heseltine, Davis, Butler - they are still more than capable of springing surprises.

    In the case of May, a number of things are keeping her in place. First of all, she's refused to go quietly. Most leaders would have caved in last June, but she's hung on. Second, the timings make a leadership contest difficult - this deal is nearly out of time as it is, taking three months to choose a new leader ain't gonna help. Thirdly, the MPs have kept her in place out of fear that somehow, in some strange parallel space time dimension, Boris might replace her. Fourth, Remainers are fearful of a full-fat leaver (Davis) while Leavers are nervous of a diehard Remainer (Hammond). She is not really either and so is a less unpalatable option than the risk of a replacement. Fifth, nobody is mad keen for a potentially destabilising replacement or to take charge of these impossible negotiations.

    However, from December none of those except possibly the first apply. Time will have run out with the EU and we will be leaving with a deal or without one. Boris has shot his bolt for good and all with the members with his flounce. Davis has as well, while once we leave the EU no Conservative except Ken Clarke and possibly Soubry will advocate rejoining so the views of Remainers cease to be an issue. With negotiations over and Corbyn in deep trouble of his own, the issues of government and instability are greatly reduced.

    That is why I think there will be a roll of the dice in the New Year, and May will go. She might be forced out anyway for health reasons (she looks really ill) but if not I think Hammond and Hunt will have a quiet word.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    Possible contenders -

    Hammond - would actually have been my pick last time. However, he didn't stand and there is no sign he wants the job. I think he's very happy where he is and wants to stay there. A good case could be made that he's the best Chancellor we've had since Howe, and May's foolish treatment of him is one of many signs that her judgement is flawed. Could easily be the kingmaker though.

    Javid - has panache and flair, and clearly wants it. Whether he has the ability to make tough decisions and make them stick is a different question. He and Hammond however as a duumvirate might be a very formidable team. Both are incidentally former hardline Euroscpetics turned Remainers.

    Hunt - has the talent, the energy, and the ability to make tough calls. Can see him struggling in a campaign against Corbyn though.

    Gove - realistically if one of the Leave camp stands it will be him, but I don't think he will. He knows how unpopular he is and there's no way he would improve on fourth last time.

    Fox - may be tempted, but wouldn't win.

    If it is Javid, backed by Hammond, I think there is a chance, although not a certainty, that the Conservatives could call and win an election against Corbyn. They have brains, experience, knowledge and indeed backgrounds that he simply can't match. It would be the posh thickos of Islington against the working class whiz kids. Moreover, Corbyn has admitted his policies are unworkable but has come up with no new ones. He would be vulnerable.

    But whether the membership would vote for it, I don't know. I think however with Hunt and Javid as the final two, they would go for Javid.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,796
    ydoethur said:

    Possible contenders -

    Hammond - would actually have been my pick last time. However, he didn't stand and there is no sign he wants the job. I think he's very happy where he is and wants to stay there. A good case could be made that he's the best Chancellor we've had since Howe, and May's foolish treatment of him is one of many signs that her judgement is flawed. Could easily be the kingmaker though.

    Javid - has panache and flair, and clearly wants it. Whether he has the ability to make tough decisions and make them stick is a different question. He and Hammond however as a duumvirate might be a very formidable team. Both are incidentally former hardline Euroscpetics turned Remainers.

    Hunt - has the talent, the energy, and the ability to make tough calls. Can see him struggling in a campaign against Corbyn though.

    Gove - realistically if one of the Leave camp stands it will be him, but I don't think he will. He knows how unpopular he is and there's no way he would improve on fourth last time.

    Fox - may be tempted, but wouldn't win.

    If it is Javid, backed by Hammond, I think there is a chance, although not a certainty, that the Conservatives could call and win an election against Corbyn. They have brains, experience, knowledge and indeed backgrounds that he simply can't match. It would be the posh thickos of Islington against the working class whiz kids. Moreover, Corbyn has admitted his policies are unworkable but has come up with no new ones. He would be vulnerable.

    But whether the membership would vote for it, I don't know. I think however with Hunt and Javid as the final two, they would go for Javid.

    Surely the MPs will ensure a leaver is in the final two?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,693
    edited July 28
    An interesting article, but isn't this merely the last throw of the dice for Remainers?

    We've had most stages in the grief cycle, but this is a new one. It's all too complicated, we're stuck in the EU. Akin to an abusive Victorian marriage where, because of all the labyrinthic rules, we can't unravel.

    "I am stepped in blood so far that should I wade no more, returning were as tedious as go o'er."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,070
    Off Topic,

    2 weeks to go to the new footy season, and a curiously compressed transfer window has not had much excitement. Have we a new PB Fantasy Football League?

    On March 30th in a No Deal situation, the many EU players will become simply non UK. I recall some restrictions on signing non EU players at present in terms of getting work permits and approval, presumably these rules will then apply to the EU players also.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,918
    Quite a lot of rain here. Imagine there'll be some flash flooding.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,518
    Foxy said:

    *my exception is copper, which I think has a bright future with electric cars etc.

    Cobalt is also highly in demand for battery technology and almost all of it comes from Central Africa
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252

    Nigelb said:

    For those who care, Jason Gillespie has some interesting comments on the Rashid affair:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2018/jul/27/adil-rashid-yorkshire-england-red-ball-cricket

    Thanks, Nigel. I care, but the article only goes part way to explaining the matter.

    It's easy to believe the problem lies in Yorkshire, but there is still no explanation as to why the England selectors preferred first Dawson, then Crane. There are no cricketing grounds for that preference.

    We still can only guess what the real reasons were.
    The whole decision looks absolutely peculiar. I will continue saying that because it does!

    I have to go. Have a good morning.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,605
    CD13 said:

    An interesting article, but isn't this merely the last throw of the dice for Remainers?

    We've had most stages in the grief cycle, but this is a new one. It's all too complicated, we're stuck in the EU. Akin to an abusive Victorian marriage where, because of all the labyrinthic rules, we can't unravel.

    "I am stepped in blood so far that should I wade no more,. returning were as tedious as go o'er."

    I remember discussing this with other posters on here, arguing that there'd always be a future opportunity to get out before federalisation... With each passing day I'm more convinced this is the last chance.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Possible contenders -

    Hammond - would actually have been my pick last time. However, he didn't stand and there is no sign he wants the job. I think he's very happy where he is and wants to stay there. A good case could be made that he's the best Chancellor we've had since Howe, and May's foolish treatment of him is one of many signs that her judgement is flawed. Could easily be the kingmaker though.

    Javid - has panache and flair, and clearly wants it. Whether he has the ability to make tough decisions and make them stick is a different question. He and Hammond however as a duumvirate might be a very formidable team. Both are incidentally former hardline Euroscpetics turned Remainers.

    Hunt - has the talent, the energy, and the ability to make tough calls. Can see him struggling in a campaign against Corbyn though.

    Gove - realistically if one of the Leave camp stands it will be him, but I don't think he will. He knows how unpopular he is and there's no way he would improve on fourth last time.

    Fox - may be tempted, but wouldn't win.

    If it is Javid, backed by Hammond, I think there is a chance, although not a certainty, that the Conservatives could call and win an election against Corbyn. They have brains, experience, knowledge and indeed backgrounds that he simply can't match. It would be the posh thickos of Islington against the working class whiz kids. Moreover, Corbyn has admitted his policies are unworkable but has come up with no new ones. He would be vulnerable.

    But whether the membership would vote for it, I don't know. I think however with Hunt and Javid as the final two, they would go for Javid.

    Surely the MPs will ensure a leaver is in the final two?
    (1) There is no Leaver senior enough to be a realistic contender

    (2) Once we're out, as I've said, Leave/Remain is not the issue. It will be stay out/rejoin and I don't think any current Cabinet Minister, including Hammond, would advocated the latter in the next ten years.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,918
    Mr. D, aye. The claim that we'd find it easier to leave a decade down the line was not one that persuaded me.

    Mr. CD13, remains to be seen what tactic they'll adopt. There's a departure in name only, revocation of Article 50 via the Commons, or a second referendum.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,918
    Star Wars: this doesn't bother me but avoid the BBC news front page (and the Entertainment subsection) if you want to avoid some cast spoilers for Episode IX.

    Got to say, it's dickish to spoil stuff that way. Not major, but still moronic.
This discussion has been closed.