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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer puts the case for a new election

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited July 28 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer puts the case for a new election

Quite naturally, most of the focus lately has been on Mrs May’s increasingly desperate attempts to reach a deal which steers between the Scylla of EU rejection and the Charybdis of ERG revolt. She may yet succeed. If she does, however, it is clear that it will be a narrow squeeze, built on navigation by fudge, postponement of key decisions and general statements of intent to patch the timbers of the ship where water is pouring in. It is possible to imagine a package that is generally seen as unsatisfactory but passes the Commons by a majority of, say, 15, leaving details to be resolved over an indeterminate transition period years into the future.

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Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,820
    edited July 28
    I think this is pretty much the same sort of logic that underlay the decision to have a referendum. Nein danke.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 956
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I think this is pretty much the same sort of logic that underlay the decision to have a referendum. Nein danke.

    We are all Brenda from Bristol.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,192
    I think this is what is termed talking your own book, Nick.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 19,350
    2022 will be soon enough.....
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 325
    Another Election? A military coup might be more popular
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,650
    A deal with the EU is looking pretty far fetched now. Too many many powerful Leavers now want us to crash out so they can blame the ensuing economic deterioration on the EU and thus salvage their reputations.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,362
    kyf_100 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    I think this is pretty much the same sort of logic that underlay the decision to have a referendum. Nein danke.

    We are all Brenda from Bristol.

    Brenda illustrates Churchill's famous dictum that one's belief in democracy is unlikely to survive a five minute conversation with a constituent.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,407
    I'm surprised Labour people are pressing for an election- they're not definitively ahead in the polls, are less trusted on Brexit than the Tories and they haven't made the required Scottish breakthrough so would have to somehow sell the idea that the SNP should play a key role in determining Britain's future. An opposition always wants to get into government but it's difficult to think of a worse situation to inherit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,730
    edited July 28
    Labour's throw of the dice.

    The party would be better working out what it stands for, first. An election today with no (of conflicted) position on Brexit won't repeat the (semi-) happy experience of 2017.

    Come out strongly for a vote on the final deal. Then call for an election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,798
    I am far from persuaded that a new election would resolve anything. A referendum might not either, not has a better chance of doing so in my opinion.

    Yes, it seems unlikely the exact same precarious balance of power will be returned, and there is always the possibility that in a new election a different dynamic emerges which tips things decisively one way or another. But it might not. Unless it was decisive for one side or the other, to the point as you note that internal rebels cannot hold the government hostage, it would be pointless - could some different coalition or confidence and supply agreement really be more reliable than the shaky one we already have, particularly if it involves more factions?

    Yes the Tories should resolve their factional issues and either back or sack May, indeed they should have already done so, but even if they do, and even with a delay of a few months as suggested, it doesn't give much time for the Tories to get themselves in order, so in fact this seems to be more just a hope that Corbyn will be better placed for a fresh election, which they would be - while he has some Brexit troubles (and this election would still be framed around candidates' approaches on Brexit), it is the Tories who would struggle to reconcile their divisions around a new position.

    I'd need some much more compelling arguments that a GE would actually help the country, compared to alternatives which admittedly have their own issues, beyond 'IDK, there's a chance it could be a clearer outcome'.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,120
    Whilst I'm not sure I agree with Nick's assessment that everyone would welcome a more decisive result either way, I do think there will be an election in next 18 months.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    edited July 28
    Artist said:

    I'm surprised Labour people are pressing for an election- they're not definitively ahead in the polls, are less trusted on Brexit than the Tories and they haven't made the required Scottish breakthrough so would have to somehow sell the idea that the SNP should play a key role in determining Britain's future. An opposition always wants to get into government but it's difficult to think of a worse situation to inherit.

    If the situation wasn't terrible, Corbyn would have no chance of winning. That's the reason he's trying to force an election before, God forbid, the Tories sort themselves out.

    I flatly disagree with Dr Palmer's claim '20 gains' would allow Corbyn to form a government. Even if they were all from the Tories - which isn't terribly likely - that still leaves him well behind the Tories and reliant on at least two more parties to form a government, not forgetting his own backbenchers are hardly more reliable for him than the ERG group are for May. If the gains are from the SNP, the arithmetic is even more difficult. No government has been formed by the second largest party in the age of universal suffrage, and the one time it was attempted the attempt lasted less than 72 hours.

    Unless one party or another makes very substantial gains, an election would make things worse. At least at the moment the threat of a dissolution is keeping some of the awkward squad on all sides in line. If an election produces no change then that threat is gone and we have genuine paralysis.

    The only reason Labour want an election is they believe they could win it now and may not win it later. I'm not totally sure they're correct, but it's certainly Corbyn's best chance of taking power.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,026
    If Labour won just 20 more seats I’m unconvinced Jeremy Corbyn would be Prime Minister.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,798

    A deal with the EU is looking pretty far fetched now. Too many many powerful Leavers now want us to crash out so they can blame the ensuing economic deterioration on the EU and thus salvage their reputations.

    Well there are those who simply don't believe it will be that bad as well of course, but yes, a deal is very far fetched. That one of the people who has been confident a deal will emerge, like Nick, is advocating another GE on a hope and a prayer that it would have a more decisive outcome (which is the same reason May wanted one last time no doubt) is telling - everyone knows a deal is now very difficult.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,026
    IanB2 said:

    Labour's throw of the dice.

    The party would be better working out what it stands for, first. An election today with no (of conflicted) position on Brexit won't repeat the (semi-) happy experience of 2017.

    Come out strongly for a vote on the final deal. Then call for an election.

    Except the 2017 election strategy worked (sort of) precisely because it ignored Brexit, and said a Labour government would focus on other things, therefore attracting voters across the Brexit spectrum, as well as appealing to the many people who are nowhere near as interested in Brexit as the commentariat is.

    An election campaign which included a commitment to a new referendum would for obvious reasons not be able to repeat that trick (even leaving aside how daft the idea of a new referendum is on its own terms, since it would almost certainly just result in another Leave vote).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    kle4 said:

    A deal with the EU is looking pretty far fetched now. Too many many powerful Leavers now want us to crash out so they can blame the ensuing economic deterioration on the EU and thus salvage their reputations.

    Well there are those who simply don't believe it will be that bad as well of course, but yes, a deal is very far fetched. That one of the people who has been confident a deal will emerge, like Nick, is advocating another GE on a hope and a prayer that it would have a more decisive outcome (which is the same reason May wanted one last time no doubt) is telling - everyone knows a deal is now very difficult.
    Not necessarily. Labour win an election, get credit for the deal. That could be the thinking.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,476
    LOL DM commentators are against Sajid Javid because they don’t like Sadiq Khan:

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252

    LOL DM commentators are against Sajid Javid because they don’t like Sadiq Khan:


    Unless they were thinking of Gordon Brown? After all, Sadiq Khan has never been PM (although I appreciate the average DM commentator may be too dumb to realise this)!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,476
    Danny565 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Labour's throw of the dice.

    The party would be better working out what it stands for, first. An election today with no (of conflicted) position on Brexit won't repeat the (semi-) happy experience of 2017.

    Come out strongly for a vote on the final deal. Then call for an election.

    Except the 2017 election strategy worked (sort of) precisely because it ignored Brexit, and said a Labour government would focus on other things, therefore attracting voters across the Brexit spectrum, as well as appealing to the many people who are nowhere near as interested in Brexit as the commentariat is.

    An election campaign which included a commitment to a new referendum would for obvious reasons not be able to repeat that trick (even leaving aside how daft the idea of a new referendum is on its own terms, since it would almost certainly just result in another Leave vote).
    Yes, despite Brexit dominating talk amongst the political commentariat many voters simply aren’t all that interested in it. That said, I want a break from elections. Brenda from Bristol was right last year and she’s right now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,798
    For what it is worth given the Tories are much more likely to split (perhaps not formally, but have support split) if they go for a new GE under a new leader as they will have been fighting out their factional battles, and because they've had a bad year in terms of competence, I think Corbyn would probably win a new GE. Whether that is winning outright or as largest party I am not as certain about, but while his 'masterly inactivity' has been a good strategy in opposition, and the party is probably not quite as divided on Brexit (at the least there are fewer parliamentarians who are Hard leavers, but they probably have a larger remoaner core), I really think it optimistic to assume even a smallish majority as described would be sufficient to get things achieved any better than the Tories.

    After all, the divisions in the party have been a large part of May's problem, but she has also managed the MPs very poorly. Is managing his MPs an area of strength for Corbyn? They are magically going to cause no problems is he ekes out a win?

    And if he does, he'll still have very little time even with an extension to resolve the EU issue.

    Hypothetically if May were leading and got a majority back she might be able to get things done, maybe, but she won't be given the chance, and if she did I see no reason why she could even do as well as last time given how many of her party are up in arms about her recent actions.

    So very little chance of a more stable outcome.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,798
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    A deal with the EU is looking pretty far fetched now. Too many many powerful Leavers now want us to crash out so they can blame the ensuing economic deterioration on the EU and thus salvage their reputations.

    Well there are those who simply don't believe it will be that bad as well of course, but yes, a deal is very far fetched. That one of the people who has been confident a deal will emerge, like Nick, is advocating another GE on a hope and a prayer that it would have a more decisive outcome (which is the same reason May wanted one last time no doubt) is telling - everyone knows a deal is now very difficult.
    Not necessarily. Labour win an election, get credit for the deal. That could be the thinking.
    How do Labour agree what they want for a deal?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,798
    edited July 28

    LOL DM commentators are against Sajid Javid because they don’t like Sadiq Khan:


    Christ.

    Telling part

    Comments have not been moderated in advance

    No shit.

    You read stuff like that and you think it has to be parody, and funny too as it is so ridiculous (someone writes about a 'mooslym' becoming PM for heaven's sake) but no, it's all real.

    And do these people not know what an immigrant is?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,905
    Surely as a prerequisite to an election Labour should have a declared and coherent position of (whatever) relationship with the EU.
    Even if its another referendum on the ‘deal’!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,328
    Hmmm... How exactly is an election going to come about in the foreseeable future?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 21,574
    A general election would be completely pointless and Labour are onto a loser if they think they can exploit the culmination of the A50 period to force one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,798

    Hmmm... How exactly is an election going to come about in the foreseeable future?

    It seems the proposition here is Tories replace May, then go to the country with a new direction.

    That's already problematic, but the only other scenario I see involves utter collapse of the negotiations and both parties' discipline, which does not seem a good place to have a GE.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,683
    edited July 28
    This suggestion is a load of bull. Do you think NPexMP would be supporting calls for a new election had his party been in power.I don't think so. Dismiss, move on, argue more about Brexit...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,038

    LOL DM commentators are against Sajid Javid because they don’t like Sadiq Khan:


    Those comments are scary. What's worse is that they are all "highly rated"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    A deal with the EU is looking pretty far fetched now. Too many many powerful Leavers now want us to crash out so they can blame the ensuing economic deterioration on the EU and thus salvage their reputations.

    Well there are those who simply don't believe it will be that bad as well of course, but yes, a deal is very far fetched. That one of the people who has been confident a deal will emerge, like Nick, is advocating another GE on a hope and a prayer that it would have a more decisive outcome (which is the same reason May wanted one last time no doubt) is telling - everyone knows a deal is now very difficult.
    Not necessarily. Labour win an election, get credit for the deal. That could be the thinking.
    How do Labour agree what they want for a deal?
    The beauty of my theory is they don't have to. They just adopt Theresa May's ideas as a fait accompli.

    (I should stress I don't intend this to be taken entirely seriously!)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    kle4 said:

    Hmmm... How exactly is an election going to come about in the foreseeable future?

    It seems the proposition here is Tories replace May, then go to the country with a new direction.

    That's already problematic, but the only other scenario I see involves utter collapse of the negotiations and both parties' discipline, which does not seem a good place to have a GE.
    Sort of worked in 1906.

    Admittedly not for the Unionists who sometimes ended up fielding three candidates in the same constituency, but it was dandy for the Liberals.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,798
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    A deal with the EU is looking pretty far fetched now. Too many many powerful Leavers now want us to crash out so they can blame the ensuing economic deterioration on the EU and thus salvage their reputations.

    Well there are those who simply don't believe it will be that bad as well of course, but yes, a deal is very far fetched. That one of the people who has been confident a deal will emerge, like Nick, is advocating another GE on a hope and a prayer that it would have a more decisive outcome (which is the same reason May wanted one last time no doubt) is telling - everyone knows a deal is now very difficult.
    Not necessarily. Labour win an election, get credit for the deal. That could be the thinking.
    How do Labour agree what they want for a deal?
    The beauty of my theory is they don't have to. They just adopt Theresa May's ideas as a fait accompli.

    (I should stress I don't intend this to be taken entirely seriously!)
    Even so, May's ideas aren't working, so adopting those won't work, since even if the defeated Tories were willing to vote for it (for consistency) the EU isn't!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,798
    rcs1000 said:

    LOL DM commentators are against Sajid Javid because they don’t like Sadiq Khan:


    Those comments are scary. What's worse is that they are all "highly rated"
    Even scarier is that the tweeted summary is bad, but the comments are even worse.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,813
    The party system is broken. How will the parties put together a meaningful manifesto on Brexit sufficient for the electorate to choose a direction? They will provide fudge. And whoever gets in will have the same mess.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    A deal with the EU is looking pretty far fetched now. Too many many powerful Leavers now want us to crash out so they can blame the ensuing economic deterioration on the EU and thus salvage their reputations.

    Well there are those who simply don't believe it will be that bad as well of course, but yes, a deal is very far fetched. That one of the people who has been confident a deal will emerge, like Nick, is advocating another GE on a hope and a prayer that it would have a more decisive outcome (which is the same reason May wanted one last time no doubt) is telling - everyone knows a deal is now very difficult.
    Not necessarily. Labour win an election, get credit for the deal. That could be the thinking.
    How do Labour agree what they want for a deal?
    The beauty of my theory is they don't have to. They just adopt Theresa May's ideas as a fait accompli.

    (I should stress I don't intend this to be taken entirely seriously!)
    Even so, May's ideas aren't working, so adopting those won't work, since even if the defeated Tories were willing to vote for it (for consistency) the EU isn't!
    When has the fact that he was espousing an unworkable bunch of high faluting utopian ideas he didn't come up with himself ever bothered Corbyn?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,798
    Jonathan said:

    The party system is broken. How will the parties put together a meaningful manifesto on Brexit sufficient for the electorate to choose a direction? They will provide fudge. And whoever gets in will have the same mess.

    They will also definitely avoid any tough decisions in their manifestos even more than usual - can you imagine how vapid and meaningless most would be? And in such a short space of time to arrange things, no doubt many MPs who don't agree with any cobbled together manifesto would have to be reselected, so even more than usual you couldn't trust what's in them.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,611
    Jonathan said:

    The party system is broken. How will the parties put together a meaningful manifesto on Brexit sufficient for the electorate to choose a direction? They will provide fudge. And whoever gets in will have the same mess.

    It will also be pointless because there's no way of knowing how each of the plans would fare against the EU.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,798
    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    The party system is broken. How will the parties put together a meaningful manifesto on Brexit sufficient for the electorate to choose a direction? They will provide fudge. And whoever gets in will have the same mess.

    It will also be pointless because there's no way of knowing how each of the plans would fare against the EU.
    At least the LD one would be clear in aim and the EU's take on it!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,026
    For what it’s worth my guess is that if an election were called tomorrow it would result in almost exactly the same result as last year.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,386
    An election now would be likely to produce a small swing to Labour IMO. The Tories clearly could not put forward a coherent plan for Brexit whilst Labour, being in opposition, could continue to promise a better Brexit without having to be specific about how it would be achieved. So the likelihood is that Labour would come to power, either as a minority or maybe even a small majority. But what then?

    Labour's position on Brexit is based on almost as much cakeism as the Tories. And most Labour MPs favour a second referendum and, in their heart of hearts, would like to reverse Brexit altogether. A fact which is not unknown to the EU. in these circumstances it would be just as difficult for Labour to find a way forward as it is for the Tories. And the curse that is Brexit would threaten to destroy Labour just as surely as it is destroying the Tories at the moment.

    Brexit is a Tory disaster, it is becoming clearer by the day that it has unleashed insoluble problems and deepening divisions which are very likely to lead to an economic and political crisis within the next few months. A new election will not change this situation, the storm cannot now be prevented. All we can do is hope that we will will not be consumed by it and that there will be political leaders of courage and vision to pick up the pieces when it has passed. Politicians who really have the national interest at heart need to be planning for the aftermath and not fighting yet another election battle of fatuous cliches and fantasy promises.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    The party system is broken. How will the parties put together a meaningful manifesto on Brexit sufficient for the electorate to choose a direction? They will provide fudge. And whoever gets in will have the same mess.

    It will also be pointless because there's no way of knowing how each of the plans would fare against the EU.
    At least the LD one would be clear in aim and the EU's take on it!
    And UKIP.

    But somehow I don't think we'll end up with Vince facing whoever's turn it is to lead UKIP this week across the despatch box.

    This may be as @Jonathan says a flaw in the system. However, as Greece and Italy show there could be worse flaws.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 2,235
    A General Election? We only get that when it becomes clear that parliament can't agree an EU deal that the EU can agree and we face the crisis that is crash Brexit. MPs can vote against crash Brexit if they like but regardless that remains the default option with no action needed.

    So, a majority of MPs in agreement that they don't want to crash out but unable to agree to an alternative. A referendum isn't in their gift but a vote of no confidence in HMG is...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,798

    An election now would be likely to produce a small swing to Labour IMO. The Tories clearly could not put forward a coherent plan for Brexit whilst Labour, being in opposition, could continue to promise a better Brexit without having to be specific about how it would be achieved. So the likelihood is that Labour would come to power, either as a minority or maybe even a small majority. But what then?

    Labour's position on Brexit is based on almost as much cakeism as the Tories. And most Labour MPs favour a second referendum and, in their heart of hearts, would like to reverse Brexit altogether. A fact which is not unknown to the EU. in these circumstances it would be just as difficult for Labour to find a way forward as it is for the Tories. And the curse that is Brexit would threaten to destroy Labour just as surely as it is destroying the Tories at the moment.

    Brexit is a Tory disaster, it is becoming clearer by the day that it has unleashed insoluble problems and deepening divisions which are very likely to lead to an economic and political crisis within the next few months. A new election will not change this situation, the storm cannot now be prevented. All we can do is hope that we will will not be consumed by it and that there will be political leaders of courage and vision to pick up the pieces when it has passed. Politicians who really have the national interest at heart need to be planning for the aftermath and not fighting yet another election battle of fatuous cliches and fantasy promises.

    By and large, I agree with almost all you say. We the public did not exactly help by returning the parliamentary numbers we did, but that's what happens sometimes and they need to get on with it. A blind hope that an election would result in a more stable set of options is just another means of can kicking which we've done too much of already - at least they are currently getting close to having no choice but to make a decision, we don't need more delays.
  • Acorn_AntiquesAcorn_Antiques Posts: 196

    Hmmm... How exactly is an election going to come about in the foreseeable future?

    It could come about next year, under a specific set of circumstances:

    1. Theresa May agrees to what the EU ideally wants and accepts Norway + CU
    2. The Conservative Party splits. This would be inevitable under such circumstances, not merely because of the ideological convictions of many of the MPs but also because most Conservative members AND voters backed Leave. The Tory Right (Freedom Party, Reform Party, whatever they decide to call themselves) and the DUP both desert May
    3. The Remain majority of Tory and Labour MPs form a temporary compact to prop up May until the deal is in the bag
    4. The Rump Conservatives are then ejected from office in a vote of no confidence and a GE is called

    It's also why I see No Deal as the most likely outcome. The EU can't and won't budge from its fixed positions, leaving May with a straight choice between EEA/CU and nothing, and she can only pick the former if she's so terrified of the consequences of No Deal that she is prepared to end her career, destroy the Conservative Party and put Jeremy Corbyn into No.10 in order to avoid it. Unless there's anything obvious that I'm missing...?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,729
    Good luck to Geraint Thomas tomorrow - I know cycling seems under a permanent cloud nowadays but winning the Tour de France is a huge achievement. Amazing to think that a single (admittedly very large) comprehensive school could in the space of a few years produce the world's most expensive footballer, a two time Lions' captain and a tour de France winner.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,038
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    The party system is broken. How will the parties put together a meaningful manifesto on Brexit sufficient for the electorate to choose a direction? They will provide fudge. And whoever gets in will have the same mess.

    It will also be pointless because there's no way of knowing how each of the plans would fare against the EU.
    At least the LD one would be clear in aim and the EU's take on it!
    And UKIP.

    But somehow I don't think we'll end up with Vince facing whoever's turn it is to lead UKIP this week across the despatch box.

    This may be as @Jonathan says a flaw in the system. However, as Greece and Italy show there could be worse flaws.
    Greece's problems, ultimately, were that its politicians repeatedly lied to the people. Which sounds disturbingly familiar.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 21,574
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    The party system is broken. How will the parties put together a meaningful manifesto on Brexit sufficient for the electorate to choose a direction? They will provide fudge. And whoever gets in will have the same mess.

    It will also be pointless because there's no way of knowing how each of the plans would fare against the EU.
    At least the LD one would be clear in aim and the EU's take on it!
    And UKIP.

    But somehow I don't think we'll end up with Vince facing whoever's turn it is to lead UKIP this week across the despatch box.

    This may be as @Jonathan says a flaw in the system. However, as Greece and Italy show there could be worse flaws.
    Greece's problems, ultimately, were that its politicians repeatedly lied to the people. Which sounds disturbingly familiar.
    "We're not Greece!™"
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 1,445
    edited July 28
    rcs1000 said:

    LOL DM commentators are against Sajid Javid because they don’t like Sadiq Khan:


    Those comments are scary. What's worse is that they are all "highly rated"
    Unmoderated comment sections and any place where moderation is lax and lots of people take part tend to have huge amounts of racism, sexism and any other kind of discrimination they can fit in there. When a few years ago people started noticing the amount of horrific abuse online I remember being surprised. I don't know if it is because I grew up with the internet, went on chat rooms (usually to do with the game I was playing) and read comment sections (youtube, newspapers etc.) now and again but this was never a surprise to me. The surprising thing for me was when it started getting noticed and people were surprised, I just assumed everyone knew, I suppose the shock value was also absent for me as I have grown up seeing people do it for years. Edit: not actually aimed at you rcs just a useful one to reply to for my rant...

    On topic.

    I'd like a new election, I'm not sure I see it happening just yet though if the Tories really do get stuck they could throw the dice and pray for the best. I get the feeling they'd be reluctant to have a new election after the experience of the last one so they would need to be somewhat forced into it.

    Whilst I do wonder if it might be better for the country for Labour to take over now I do wonder if it might be better for Labour to not take over right now or very soon and let the Tories create a bigger mess potentially.

    Interesting read as always Nick.

  • PendduPenddu Posts: 153
     Scylla and Charybdis.... What gave STDs got to do with Brexit?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    edited July 28
    Penddu said:

     Scylla and Charybdis.... What gave STDs got to do with Brexit?

    They are all the result of thoughtless cock-ups undertaken without due care and preparation.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,729
    I wonder how much has really changed in the last 23 years? I just came across this from 1995 - the Major/Redwood contest. A Tory party hopelessly split on Europe with an apparent gaping cultural divide - if exaggerated for TV by the BBC? Just compare the activists from Vale of Glamorgan to Faversham! Also a 'before they were famous' face on 36 minutes.



  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,328
    A second referendum is more likely than an early GE imo. There aren't the numbers in the HoC for a VoNC but there might well be for a 2nd referendum if we are faced with No Deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,798

    rcs1000 said:

    LOL DM commentators are against Sajid Javid because they don’t like Sadiq Khan:


    Those comments are scary. What's worse is that they are all "highly rated"
    Unmoderated comment sections and any place where moderation is lax and lots of people take part tend to have huge amounts of racism, sexism and any other kind of discrimination they can fit in there. When a few years ago people started noticing the amount of horrific abuse online I remember being surprised. I don't know if it is because I grew up with the internet, went on chat rooms (usually to do with the game I was playing) and read comment sections (youtube, newspapers etc.) now and again but this was never a surprise to me. The surprising thing for me was when it started getting noticed and people were surprised, I just assumed everyone knew, I suppose the shock value was also absent for me as I have grown up seeing people do it for years. Edit: not actually aimed at you rcs just a useful one to reply to for my rant...


    Oh, I think everyone knows unmoderated comments sections are cesspits, but it's still a shock to see the full extent from time to time, particularly if you usually avoid such places.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252

    Also a 'before they were famous' face on 36 minutes.

    I will probably kick myself - but who is it? He doesn't look or sound like Rees-Mogg but I can't think of anyone else it could be.
  • Acorn_AntiquesAcorn_Antiques Posts: 196

    A second referendum is more likely than an early GE imo. There aren't the numbers in the HoC for a VoNC but there might well be for a 2nd referendum if we are faced with No Deal.

    Nah. Besides anything else, for reasons already raked over on here recently at some length, there's not enough time to legislate for and hold one.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,378
    Posted on an earlier thread, but relevant here

    A GE is how you avoid a 2nd referendum.

    A 2nd referendum is how you avoid a GE.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,038

    A second referendum is more likely than an early GE imo. There aren't the numbers in the HoC for a VoNC but there might well be for a 2nd referendum if we are faced with No Deal.

    Nah. Besides anything else, for reasons already raked over on here recently at some length, there's not enough time to legislate for and hold one.
    The Greeks managed a referendum in less than two weeks.

    If it was politically expedient - which I suspect it won't be - then it could happen.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,328

    A second referendum is more likely than an early GE imo. There aren't the numbers in the HoC for a VoNC but there might well be for a 2nd referendum if we are faced with No Deal.

    Nah. Besides anything else, for reasons already raked over on here recently at some length, there's not enough time to legislate for and hold one.
    Piffle! Could be done in a few weeks in an emergency - which is what we will be facing soon.
  • Acorn_AntiquesAcorn_Antiques Posts: 196
    ydoethur said:

    Also a 'before they were famous' face on 36 minutes.

    I will probably kick myself - but who is it? He doesn't look or sound like Rees-Mogg but I can't think of anyone else it could be.
    Had a quick look (without sound mind - the better half's watching the telly at the moment.) Is it Daniel Hannan?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 1,445
    edited July 28


    So we've had the 'brains' of the operation visiting in the last few days and now the foot soldiers are stirring.

    Edit: Slightly strange with the happy looking picture of JRM as the Britain First guy makes his threats...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,798
    I hope this won't prove to be a suitable analogy of Brexit

    Croatians in the south of the country are steaming over a tunnel that has cost taxpayers 280m kuna (£33m; $44m) and "leads to nowhere".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-44982830
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252

    ydoethur said:

    Also a 'before they were famous' face on 36 minutes.

    I will probably kick myself - but who is it? He doesn't look or sound like Rees-Mogg but I can't think of anyone else it could be.
    Had a quick look (without sound mind - the better half's watching the telly at the moment.) Is it Daniel Hannan?
    Yes, I think you're right. Good gracious, he looks different. Still got some of his irritating mannerisms of speech though.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 1,445

    ydoethur said:

    Also a 'before they were famous' face on 36 minutes.

    I will probably kick myself - but who is it? He doesn't look or sound like Rees-Mogg but I can't think of anyone else it could be.
    Had a quick look (without sound mind - the better half's watching the telly at the moment.) Is it Daniel Hannan?
    He looks a little different (though easily could be age) he has the views and the attitude though, that would be my guess.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,386

    rcs1000 said:

    LOL DM commentators are against Sajid Javid because they don’t like Sadiq Khan:


    Those comments are scary. What's worse is that they are all "highly rated"
    Unmoderated comment sections and any place where moderation is lax and lots of people take part tend to have huge amounts of racism, sexism and any other kind of discrimination they can fit in there. When a few years ago people started noticing the amount of horrific abuse online I remember being surprised. I don't know if it is because I grew up with the internet, went on chat rooms (usually to do with the game I was playing) and read comment sections (youtube, newspapers etc.) now and again but this was never a surprise to me. The surprising thing for me was when it started getting noticed and people were surprised, I just assumed everyone knew, I suppose the shock value was also absent for me as I have grown up seeing people do it for years. Edit: not actually aimed at you rcs just a useful one to reply to for my rant...

    On topic.

    I'd like a new election, I'm not sure I see it happening just yet though if the Tories really do get stuck they could throw the dice and pray for the best. I get the feeling they'd be reluctant to have a new election after the experience of the last one so they would need to be somewhat forced into it.

    Whilst I do wonder if it might be better for the country for Labour to take over now I do wonder if it might be better for Labour to not take over right now or very soon and let the Tories create a bigger mess potentially.

    Interesting read as always Nick.

    Agree re unmoderated comments. Twitter etc are what we ancients who grew up without the internet, or even computers, used to call pub talk but the difference is that now it's not just the few people in the pub who hear someone's outrageous views but anyone who follows them on social media. If you don't like it don't read it. Simple. Trying to censor or moderate it makes it seem much more serious and important than it really is.

    Also agree that whilst Labour could perhaps make a better fist of Brexit than the Tories (surely they couldn't be worse) it would not be good for them politically. Better to let the Tories stew and wait until the crisis has come to a head before pushing for a new election.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,328
    edited July 28
    rcs1000 said:

    A second referendum is more likely than an early GE imo. There aren't the numbers in the HoC for a VoNC but there might well be for a 2nd referendum if we are faced with No Deal.

    Nah. Besides anything else, for reasons already raked over on here recently at some length, there's not enough time to legislate for and hold one.
    The Greeks managed a referendum in less than two weeks.

    If it was politically expedient - which I suspect it won't be - then it could happen.
    I know from your video last week you're pretty sanguine about a no deal crash out (but maybe it's easy to be relaxed about the impact in LA!).

    However, even the list of issues you identified taken as a whole would equate to a crisis more serious than the 3-day week in 1974, and probably not exceeded since 1940.

    My view is that if, as currently seems likely, we are faced with that prospect, it is inconceivable that the government would take that step without either a second referendum (to confirm or refute that as a nation we want ot go through with it), or a 'who Governs' GE.

    I think a 2nd referendum is more likely to gain HoC support, avoids the Tories risking a Corbyn government and resolves the crisis more quickly, than a GE.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252

    ydoethur said:

    Also a 'before they were famous' face on 36 minutes.

    I will probably kick myself - but who is it? He doesn't look or sound like Rees-Mogg but I can't think of anyone else it could be.
    Had a quick look (without sound mind - the better half's watching the telly at the moment.) Is it Daniel Hannan?
    He looks a little different (though easily could be age) he has the views and the attitude though, that would be my guess.
    This is an authenticated photo of him from 1994:

    https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Oxford_Campaign_for_an_Independent_Britain.png#mw-jump-to-license (third from left)

    It certainly looks similar.

    Look who's in the back row as well...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,440
    I beg leave to move to the PB Supreme Court that those miscreants who post moving pictures of John Redwood (see down thread) should suffer cruel and unusual punishment, up to and including exile to ConHome for a period not shorter in months than the girth of Diane Abbott's waistline and IQ = 5 years - 59+1 .....
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,820
    kle4 said:

    I hope this won't prove to be a suitable analogy of Brexit

    Croatians in the south of the country are steaming over a tunnel that has cost taxpayers 280m kuna (£33m; $44m) and "leads to nowhere".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-44982830

    Well, it's probably been paid for by our NHS money, so not the strongest Remain argument ever advanced.

    https://www.total-croatia-news.com/business/29496-rijeka-holds-record-for-number-of-eu-financed-projects
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,520


    Brenda illustrates Churchill's famous dictum that one's belief in democracy is unlikely to survive a five minute conversation with a constituent.

    Sums up the outcome of the Brexit Referendum :D
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,328



    So we've had the 'brains' of the operation visiting in the last few days and now the foot soldiers are stirring.

    Edit: Slightly strange with the happy looking picture of JRM as the Britain First guy makes his threats...

    Enough to make even JRM cringe.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    JackW said:

    I beg leave to move to the PB Supreme Court that those miscreants who post moving pictures of John Redwood (see down thread) should suffer cruel and unusual punishment, up to and including exile to ConHome for a period not shorter in months than the girth of Diane Abbott's waistline and IQ = 5 years - 59+1 .....

    Please Your Grace! Have mercy...

    Otherwise God knows what will happen to me for posting a photo of Hannan, Rees-Mogg and unless mine eyes deceive me, George Osborne.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,197
    Nigelb said:

    I think this is what is termed talking your own book, Nick.

    Replacing the government of a country that doesn't do what it's told is SOP for the EU.

    Blaming it on the Eurosceptics is just an extra twist of the knife

  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,231
    edited July 28
    rcs1000 said:

    A second referendum is more likely than an early GE imo. There aren't the numbers in the HoC for a VoNC but there might well be for a 2nd referendum if we are faced with No Deal.

    Nah. Besides anything else, for reasons already raked over on here recently at some length, there's not enough time to legislate for and hold one.
    The Greeks managed a referendum in less than two weeks.

    If it was politically expedient - which I suspect it won't be - then it could happen.
    And then the EU completely ignored the result and the Greek Government capitulated and gave Brussels everything it wanted.

    The Greek government were lucky to get that far in 2015 - in 2011 the EU effectively forced the Greek government to cancel a referendum when polls suggested 60 per cent of Greeks would vote to reject the EU bailout package

    Such a respect for referendums does the EU have!
  • Acorn_AntiquesAcorn_Antiques Posts: 196
    rcs1000 said:

    A second referendum is more likely than an early GE imo. There aren't the numbers in the HoC for a VoNC but there might well be for a 2nd referendum if we are faced with No Deal.

    Nah. Besides anything else, for reasons already raked over on here recently at some length, there's not enough time to legislate for and hold one.
    The Greeks managed a referendum in less than two weeks.

    If it was politically expedient - which I suspect it won't be - then it could happen.
    Can Parliament agree to hold another referendum?
    If so, what is the question?
    Does it come before or after the end of the negotiations?
    Can we get it done before the Brexit date, and if not will the EU accept an extension AND is there a Parliamentary majority for delay?
    What are the answers? In/Out? Yes/No? Multi-option as suggested by Justine Greening?
    Is it advisory or binding?
    How are the official campaigns to be designated?
    How long will it take to choose the official campaigns, and for them to be organised, and to gather funds (or will they be funded by the state?)
    What are the rules of engagement?
    Will it be subject to legal objections, and how long will they take to resolve in the courts?
    How long are the campaigns going to be?
    What if it produces the same result again?
    What if it produces another result but, depending on the question and answers selected, it's also one that Parliament can't, or doesn't want to, implement?

    etc, etc...
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,991

    rcs1000 said:

    A second referendum is more likely than an early GE imo. There aren't the numbers in the HoC for a VoNC but there might well be for a 2nd referendum if we are faced with No Deal.

    Nah. Besides anything else, for reasons already raked over on here recently at some length, there's not enough time to legislate for and hold one.
    The Greeks managed a referendum in less than two weeks.

    If it was politically expedient - which I suspect it won't be - then it could happen.
    Can Parliament agree to hold another referendum?
    If so, what is the question?
    Does it come before or after the end of the negotiations?
    Can we get it done before the Brexit date, and if not will the EU accept an extension AND is there a Parliamentary majority for delay?
    What are the answers? In/Out? Yes/No? Multi-option as suggested by Justine Greening?
    Is it advisory or binding?
    How are the official campaigns to be designated?
    How long will it take to choose the official campaigns, and for them to be organised, and to gather funds (or will they be funded by the state?)
    What are the rules of engagement?
    Will it be subject to legal objections, and how long will they take to resolve in the courts?
    How long are the campaigns going to be?
    What if it produces the same result again?
    What if it produces another result but, depending on the question and answers selected, it's also one that Parliament can't, or doesn't want to, implement?

    etc, etc...
    We could just send in a note from our Mum asking to be excused Brexit because we've fallen down and can't get up.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    edited July 28
    brendan16 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A second referendum is more likely than an early GE imo. There aren't the numbers in the HoC for a VoNC but there might well be for a 2nd referendum if we are faced with No Deal.

    Nah. Besides anything else, for reasons already raked over on here recently at some length, there's not enough time to legislate for and hold one.
    The Greeks managed a referendum in less than two weeks.

    If it was politically expedient - which I suspect it won't be - then it could happen.
    And then the EU completely ignored the result and the Greek Government capitulated and gave Brussels everything it wanted.
    That was a truly classic example of how referendums don't really work when you're offering something not in your gift. The Greeks were promised an end to austerity and staying in the Euro. In reality, there was no path for them that didn't involve austerity although exiting the Euro would probably have been less painful. Effectively, they voted for free unicorns and for some reason, didn't get them.

    This is one reason why (a) our leave vote has turned into a shambles (voters were offered things in the power of the EU) and (b) a referendum to remain would be pointless.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,798

    rcs1000 said:

    A second referendum is more likely than an early GE imo. There aren't the numbers in the HoC for a VoNC but there might well be for a 2nd referendum if we are faced with No Deal.

    Nah. Besides anything else, for reasons already raked over on here recently at some length, there's not enough time to legislate for and hold one.
    The Greeks managed a referendum in less than two weeks.

    If it was politically expedient - which I suspect it won't be - then it could happen.
    Can Parliament agree to hold another referendum?
    If so, what is the question?
    Does it come before or after the end of the negotiations?
    Can we get it done before the Brexit date, and if not will the EU accept an extension AND is there a Parliamentary majority for delay?
    What are the answers? In/Out? Yes/No? Multi-option as suggested by Justine Greening?
    Is it advisory or binding?
    How are the official campaigns to be designated?
    How long will it take to choose the official campaigns, and for them to be organised, and to gather funds (or will they be funded by the state?)
    What are the rules of engagement?
    Will it be subject to legal objections, and how long will they take to resolve in the courts?
    How long are the campaigns going to be?
    What if it produces the same result again?
    What if it produces another result but, depending on the question and answers selected, it's also one that Parliament can't, or doesn't want to, implement?

    etc, etc...
    Of course they can
    That's tricky, as there's several options, although if the EU continue to reject then it could be No deal or remain
    End, if a deal is even reached, as it would presumably be about accepting said deal
    Parliament can move very quickly if it needs to and the legislation need not be complicated, so yes. Majority for delay if needed? Maybe not, that's the problem, there's seemingly no majority for anything
    Depends
    Depends on what the legislation says - last time it was not because it didn't say its result would be enacted
    No idea
    Another problem with the idea, particular as the question is as yet unclear
    No drawing of blood
    Probably.
    As short as is allowable. I think the Electoral Commission recommend at least 6 weeks?
    If it is the same, vague question, one would hope that it would settle things and MPs would have to move on, but that cannot be guaranteed. But the question may be more specific (eg deal, no deal, remain) so it isn't the same either way
    We're even more screwed.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 959
    Two points:

    - A general election is unavoidably about far more than Brexit. It's about the next five years of Government across the entire economy, domestic policy, foreign policy, industry - everything. An election would inevitably be about far more than our relationship with the EU, and using it solely as such would be ingenuous at best.
    - It presupposes that Corbyn and his group would be in favour of an EEA-like arrangement. Or, indeed, any specific arrangement acceptable to all parties. I am not at all convinced of that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 21,574
    edited July 28
    ydoethur said:

    brendan16 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A second referendum is more likely than an early GE imo. There aren't the numbers in the HoC for a VoNC but there might well be for a 2nd referendum if we are faced with No Deal.

    Nah. Besides anything else, for reasons already raked over on here recently at some length, there's not enough time to legislate for and hold one.
    The Greeks managed a referendum in less than two weeks.

    If it was politically expedient - which I suspect it won't be - then it could happen.
    And then the EU completely ignored the result and the Greek Government capitulated and gave Brussels everything it wanted.
    That was a truly classic example of how referendums don't really work when you're offering something not in your gift. The Greeks were promised an end to austerity and staying in the Euro. In reality, there was no path for them that didn't involve austerity although exiting the Euro would probably have been less painful. Effectively, they voted for free unicorns and for some reason, didn't get them.

    This is one reason why (a) our leave vote has turned into a shambles (voters were offered things in the power of the EU) and (b) a referendum to remain would be pointless.
    A good post completely spoiled by point (b) which is without foundation.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 21,574

    Also a 'before they were famous' face on 36 minutes.

    There's another one at 35 minutes - David Coburn of UKIP fame, saying that people don't want an outrageous experiment that could end in catastrophe.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,440
    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    I beg leave to move to the PB Supreme Court that those miscreants who post moving pictures of John Redwood (see down thread) should suffer cruel and unusual punishment, up to and including exile to ConHome for a period not shorter in months than the girth of Diane Abbott's waistline and IQ = 5 years - 59+1 .....

    Please Your Grace! Have mercy...

    Otherwise God knows what will happen to me for posting a photo of Hannan, Rees-Mogg and unless mine eyes deceive me, George Osborne.
    Your egregious acts are noted and shall be considered without prejudice. However the failure to warn PBers of the incoming "Redwood Tapes" is without doubt one of the worst examples of hate crimes ever to offend the delicate sensibilities of our noble assemblage.

    Mercy shall be relegated to the back of the queue.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    edited July 28
    JackW said:

    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    I beg leave to move to the PB Supreme Court that those miscreants who post moving pictures of John Redwood (see down thread) should suffer cruel and unusual punishment, up to and including exile to ConHome for a period not shorter in months than the girth of Diane Abbott's waistline and IQ = 5 years - 59+1 .....

    Please Your Grace! Have mercy...

    Otherwise God knows what will happen to me for posting a photo of Hannan, Rees-Mogg and unless mine eyes deceive me, George Osborne.
    Your egregious acts are noted and shall be considered without prejudice. However the failure to warn PBers of the incoming "Redwood Tapes" is without doubt one of the worst examples of hate crimes ever to offend the delicate sensibilities of our noble assemblage.

    Mercy shall be relegated to the back of the queue.
    Is it any defence to say it was a link, rather than a photo, and I noted Hannan was in it?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,895
    Interesting that the general view is that Labour would win and that that's why I wrote it. I think it'd be a toss-up, frankly, and I agree with anothernick that it's in Labour's interest not to have one and let the Tories mess it up terminally. Problem is that I don't think a satisfactory deal is possible with this Parliament. Not either way.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,197
    ydoethur said:

    Also a 'before they were famous' face on 36 minutes.

    I will probably kick myself - but who is it? He doesn't look or sound like Rees-Mogg but I can't think of anyone else it could be.
    I think it's Dan Hannan, but that's based on the voice rather than the face.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,328
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A second referendum is more likely than an early GE imo. There aren't the numbers in the HoC for a VoNC but there might well be for a 2nd referendum if we are faced with No Deal.

    Nah. Besides anything else, for reasons already raked over on here recently at some length, there's not enough time to legislate for and hold one.
    The Greeks managed a referendum in less than two weeks.

    If it was politically expedient - which I suspect it won't be - then it could happen.
    Of course they can
    That's tricky, as there's several options, although if the EU continue to reject then it could be No deal or remain
    End, if a deal is even reached, as it would presumably be about accepting said deal
    Parliament can move very quickly if it needs to and the legislation need not be complicated, so yes. Majority for delay if needed? Maybe not, that's the problem, there's seemingly no majority for anything
    Depends
    Depends on what the legislation says - last time it was not because it didn't say its result would be enacted
    No idea
    Another problem with the idea, particular as the question is as yet unclear
    No drawing of blood
    Probably.
    As short as is allowable. I think the Electoral Commission recommend at least 6 weeks?
    If it is the same, vague question, one would hope that it would settle things and MPs would have to move on, but that cannot be guaranteed. But the question may be more specific (eg deal, no deal, remain) so it isn't the same either way
    We're even more screwed.
    Agree with all your answers except the last one, which should say 'we remain as screwed as we are today'. The point is, a 2nd ref can provide path through the looming No Deal crisis which has the majority support of the country. If the result is very close I accept we are probably no better off than today. But it's a chance that has to be worth taking.
  • Acorn_AntiquesAcorn_Antiques Posts: 196
    ydoethur said:

    brendan16 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A second referendum is more likely than an early GE imo. There aren't the numbers in the HoC for a VoNC but there might well be for a 2nd referendum if we are faced with No Deal.

    Nah. Besides anything else, for reasons already raked over on here recently at some length, there's not enough time to legislate for and hold one.
    The Greeks managed a referendum in less than two weeks.

    If it was politically expedient - which I suspect it won't be - then it could happen.
    And then the EU completely ignored the result and the Greek Government capitulated and gave Brussels everything it wanted.
    That was a truly classic example of how referendums don't really work when you're offering something not in your gift. The Greeks were promised an end to austerity and staying in the Euro. In reality, there was no path for them that didn't involve austerity although exiting the Euro would probably have been less painful. Effectively, they voted for free unicorns and for some reason, didn't get them.

    This is one reason why (a) our leave vote has turned into a shambles (voters were offered things in the power of the EU) and (b) a referendum to remain would be pointless.
    Vote Leave may have suggested scenarios that could only be achieved with the co-operation of the EU, but the actual question was whether to stay or go. That was and is a matter entirely within the competence of the United Kingdom.

    The reasons why our Leave vote has turned into a shambles are (1) that Parliament legislated for a vote with two options when it only ever wanted to honour one of them, and (2) the attempt of the Prime Minister to sort the situation out with a General Election was defeated by the people. We really are all in this together.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,328

    Interesting that the general view is that Labour would win and that that's why I wrote it. I think it'd be a toss-up, frankly, and I agree with anothernick that it's in Labour's interest not to have one and let the Tories mess it up terminally. Problem is that I don't think a satisfactory deal is possible with this Parliament. Not either way.

    I agree on that last point Nick. But I just cannot see there being sufficient will in the HoC to make an early GE happen.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,038
    brendan16 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A second referendum is more likely than an early GE imo. There aren't the numbers in the HoC for a VoNC but there might well be for a 2nd referendum if we are faced with No Deal.

    Nah. Besides anything else, for reasons already raked over on here recently at some length, there's not enough time to legislate for and hold one.
    The Greeks managed a referendum in less than two weeks.

    If it was politically expedient - which I suspect it won't be - then it could happen.
    And then the EU completely ignored the result and the Greek Government capitulated and gave Brussels everything it wanted.

    The Greek government were lucky to get that far in 2015 - in 2011 the EU effectively forced the Greek government to cancel a referendum when polls suggested 60 per cent of Greeks would vote to reject the EU bailout package

    Such a respect for referendums does the EU have!
    So if the Greeks vote for higher pensions than Germans, then the Germans are obliged to pay for it?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 1,445
    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    I beg leave to move to the PB Supreme Court that those miscreants who post moving pictures of John Redwood (see down thread) should suffer cruel and unusual punishment, up to and including exile to ConHome for a period not shorter in months than the girth of Diane Abbott's waistline and IQ = 5 years - 59+1 .....

    Please Your Grace! Have mercy...

    Otherwise God knows what will happen to me for posting a photo of Hannan, Rees-Mogg and unless mine eyes deceive me, George Osborne.
    The guy in the front row a few across from Hannan in your picture?

    I did think that until I made the picture bigger, from a distance it looks like him. Unless your on about something else.

    Also is it JRM with I assume ears that weren't pinned back yet at the back?

    @anothernick

    Yeah my thinking is though they may still have problems in regards to Brexit Labour probably can't do any worse at not making a decision. I do feel that the Labour MPs are probably more willing to compromise on the issue as well, less zealots and less zealous, although they still exist.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,328
    O/T Is Geraint Thomas nailed on for SPOTY?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,066
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,729
    JackW said:

    I beg leave to move to the PB Supreme Court that those miscreants who post moving pictures of John Redwood (see down thread) should suffer cruel and unusual punishment, up to and including exile to ConHome for a period not shorter in months than the girth of Diane Abbott's waistline and IQ = 5 years - 59+1 .....

    Snowflake!

    What it all highlights though (including the young bespectacled gent at 36minutes) is how the Tory right/Eurosceptics/whatever have failed to produce a credible Prime ministerial candidate for 30 years. Redwood/Lilley/IDS/Howard/Davis/Fox have never had traction with the public. Maybe a mature Hague was closest but I think it'sbeen a while since they put their faith in him.

    Maybe this is why the Portillo moment has such resonance? He was the last credible right wing option as Prime minister and many non-Tories could see it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 21,574
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Also a 'before they were famous' face on 36 minutes.

    I will probably kick myself - but who is it? He doesn't look or sound like Rees-Mogg but I can't think of anyone else it could be.
    I think it's Dan Hannan, but that's based on the voice rather than the face.
    Close. It's actually Chris Morris experimenting with a new character for The Day Today. :)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,197

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Also a 'before they were famous' face on 36 minutes.

    I will probably kick myself - but who is it? He doesn't look or sound like Rees-Mogg but I can't think of anyone else it could be.
    I think it's Dan Hannan, but that's based on the voice rather than the face.
    Close. It's actually Chris Morris experimenting with a new character for The Day Today. :)
    The smirk mid way through when he got his soundbite in was quite something
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    JackW said:

    I beg leave to move to the PB Supreme Court that those miscreants who post moving pictures of John Redwood (see down thread) should suffer cruel and unusual punishment, up to and including exile to ConHome for a period not shorter in months than the girth of Diane Abbott's waistline and IQ = 5 years - 59+1 .....

    Snowflake!

    What it all highlights though (including the young bespectacled gent at 36minutes) is how the Tory right/Eurosceptics/whatever have failed to produce a credible Prime ministerial candidate for 30 years. Redwood/Lilley/IDS/Howard/Davis/Fox have never had traction with the public. Maybe a mature Hague was closest but I think it'sbeen a while since they put their faith in him.

    Maybe this is why the Portillo moment has such resonance? He was the last credible right wing option as Prime minister and many non-Tories could see it.
    Ironically, we now know Portillo isn't that right wing. Like Major he pretended to be a Thatcherite. Portillo believes in IHT as a good source of taxation.

    He actually has a point. He believes Tories should cut earned Income tax and not tax on unearned income.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,798

    Interesting that the general view is that Labour would win and that that's why I wrote it. I think it'd be a toss-up, frankly, and I agree with anothernick that it's in Labour's interest not to have one and let the Tories mess it up terminally. Problem is that I don't think a satisfactory deal is possible with this Parliament. Not either way.

    I certainly don't think that was your primary motivation, but an early GE would almost certainly benefit Labour more as the Tories would need to be in even more chaos for there to be a path to a GE, and the main criticism I have is that it seems to boil down to a hope that a more stable government would arise, of whatever stripe, but even if the result is not entirely static small changes won't make the situation better, and even moderate changes to enable majorities for either option won't make it appreciably better unless it is a large majority.

    So the argument is not made that it would actually improve things.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,440
    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    I beg leave to move to the PB Supreme Court that those miscreants who post moving pictures of John Redwood (see down thread) should suffer cruel and unusual punishment, up to and including exile to ConHome for a period not shorter in months than the girth of Diane Abbott's waistline and IQ = 5 years - 59+1 .....

    Please Your Grace! Have mercy...

    Otherwise God knows what will happen to me for posting a photo of Hannan, Rees-Mogg and unless mine eyes deceive me, George Osborne.
    Your egregious acts are noted and shall be considered without prejudice. However the failure to warn PBers of the incoming "Redwood Tapes" is without doubt one of the worst examples of hate crimes ever to offend the delicate sensibilities of our noble assemblage.

    Mercy shall be relegated to the back of the queue.
    Is it any defence to say it was a link, rather than a photo, and I noted Hannan was in it?
    A minor note of mitigation on a level to Hitler favoured German shepherd dogs as a pet.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,120

    Also a 'before they were famous' face on 36 minutes.

    There's another one at 35 minutes - David Coburn of UKIP fame, saying that people don't want an outrageous experiment that could end in catastrophe.
    Damn it! I thought I was the only person to spot him.

    Fascinating video though. Bizarre that they wasted eight minutes questioning Redwood's decision to challenge for the leadership, even though Major called the bloody election in the first place! Probably a sound decision of Major to dodge this event, though.

    It was also amazing to see just how deluded some Tories were in 1995. I wonder at what point after this contest all those supporters of Major started to realise that those in Faversham had it right?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,798
    dr_spyn said:
    So basically the concerns of the mainstream Jewish papers/organisations are fake and entirely about defending Israel, and they had best be careful as if Corbyn loses narrowly Jews will be blamed?

    Helpful stuff.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,093
    ydoethur said:

    Also a 'before they were famous' face on 36 minutes.

    I will probably kick myself - but who is it? He doesn't look or sound like Rees-Mogg but I can't think of anyone else it could be.
    Daniel Hannon. Half the age and twice as slappable.
This discussion has been closed.