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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Memories of Thatcher could make it harder for Tories to win

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Memories of Thatcher could make it harder for Tories to win in the North

One of the Conservative Party’s secret weapons to winning more votes in the North of England is a young man called David Skelton. Skelton is from the North East and has an impeccable feel for the North in a way few Conservative strategists do.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    FPT

    More good news to lighten the sepuchral gloom

    Construction output has been a drag on the economy for most of 2012. The February figures released by ONS today show that February output grew by 5.5% over January even though figures are still down on a yearly basis.

    This is a promising reversal of previous trends and is yet another sign that the economy is slowly turning around.

    The ONS reported increases in output for nearly all sectors, with the exception of "private commercial other new work” which showed a fall of 0.5%.

    With bids now going out for the construction of a Thatcher mausoleum and multiple civic memorials to the Iron Lady, we can confidently expect this mini-boom to continue through the year.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    Elections expert David Boothroyd is saying that the timetable for the South Shields by-election is extremely tight.

    https://twitter.com/220_d_92_20
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Henry, thank you.

    You say, "For many our towns, cities and former coalfield areas felt like the victim of an occupying force." Please will you expand on this thought.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Not all of the 50% who thought Margaret Thatcher was a force for good were in the south. And almost all of those who already hated Margaret Thatcher with a passion were already non-Conservative voters.

    The Conservatives do have a problem in the north, and it's the one that David Skelton mentions, of being seen as the party of the rich. Come to that, it's the Conservatives' weakness in parts of the south too.

    The Conservatives do need to think about how to address that. But Margaret Thatcher is not a particularly big part of the problem. She has now entered into history. Indeed, the Conservatives need to think about how to re-engage with those less affluent voters (and their children) who were given opportunity and inspiration in the 1980s. It's something to which the current Conservative leadership have paid nothing like enough attention to date.
  • Missing the point. This is a golden opportunity to redefine Labour, not the Tories. Ed Miliband = the Labour Thatcher had to fight. Mili seems determined to help by casting himself as pre-Blair. All this recall of chaos and division reflects on Labour far more than the Tories. And the seats that matter aren't in the north, they are in the midlands and south (LD mainly) where Labour's vote is a swing vote every bit as much as the Tories'.

    FTP btw from a long time lurker...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    'Whole urban centres outside of the South of England now have no Tory representation whatsoever '

    Huge area's of southern England have no labour representation either...

    Labour have a southern problem, tories have a northern problem...same as it ever was.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Great article.

    Personally, I believe that no party can take it's heartland vote completely for granted.

    It is really hard to organise an insurgent campaign from a position of low activity in an opponents seat. But that really is a technical constraint. If a party discovers a way to make that easier, they could breakthrough.

    Many heartland safe seats are vulnerable IMO. Outside marginals like Eastleigh, incumbent activity is almost non-existent or stale, leaving the seat open to attack.



  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited April 2013
    Great article, Henry, and I think for the same reasons this may have an impact on the Scottish independence referendum campaign, at least in the short-term. The coverage has made people remember why it was Scotland embarked on the road to self-government in the first place.

    And it's not just over-50s, incidentally. Anyone in their mid-thirties or above will have clear memories of living under Thatcherism if only as a child, and the effect it had on their family and community. It will even have a degree of resonance for those a bit younger who grew up in the Major years.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    An interesting aspect of the 'tributes' on Wednesday was the way in which some MPs were indirectly making points against their own leaderships - compare and contrast the words and approach of Sheerman, Jackson, Winnick and Stuart. Others like Mike Gapes used Thatcher's European policy to make sly digs at The Tories' disunity. Davis attacked the defenestration and those who profited from it.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Good old @AveryLP!

    Don't let the buggers grind you down!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    April Showers in April??? Has the weather finally got back to normal?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Good article, David.

    Even assuming that a dose of Thatcherism was needed to shake Britain out of its 70's torpor, what Thatcher - and to my mind - most politicians since then (of whichever party) have failed to grapple with is how to revive areas which have lost much of their previous industrial base, how to harness the skills and talents of people in those communities (rather than simply telling them to leave), how to value the local pride and sense of community that many have about their homes and how to do so in a tone which is not antagonistic but not condescending either.

    Self-reliance, community spirit, looking out for others are - or were - Tory virtues as much as Labour ones so there is no reason why an authentic Northern Tory voice could not represent these areas. It's just that such voices have been few and far between and the Tories have, to a great extent, lost touch with a large part of their own political heritage. There are few regionally based politicians (Ken Clarke is one, Blunkett another). Where is the next generation coming from?

    So long as parties impose relative youngsters from outside this sense of disconnect will continue and, currently, it will harm the Tories more than Labour. By contrast with the past, they - even more than Labour - are now seen as a very Southern English party. Thatcher understoon Basildon man very well indeed. Who does Cameron understand? Who in the Tory party understands people in the Lake District or Leeds or Hull or Liverpool?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    Avery

    Some City economists revising their Q1 GDP figure from positive to negative on the back of weak construction data: ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_…

    Spin fail

    There was and still is an error on the summary page of the ONS Construction Stats:

    It reads:

    The total volume of construction output fell by 5.5% comparing February 2013 with January 2013, in constant prices, not seasonally adjusted.

    Those economists who downloaded the report and read its contents will note the correct figures:

    Comparing February 2013 with January 2013 the total volume of construction output increased by 5.5%. There were increases in output for nearly all sectors, with the exception of private commercial other new work which showed a fall of 0.5%.

    So not so much "spin" tim as a subtle plan by the ONS to sort the lazy economists from the industrious.

    Which are you?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Just shows how dumb these voters are - 13 yrs of Labour and they are still whining about the PM from 30 years ago.

    The population of these Northern towns is dropping - take South Shields - down from 65,773 63,765 between 2000 and 2010 - those with any nous are fleeing south.


  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Jonathan said:

    Great article.

    Personally, I believe that no party can take it's heartland vote completely for granted.

    It is really hard to organise an insurgent campaign from a position of low activity in an opponents seat. But that really is a technical constraint. If a party discovers a way to make that easier, they could breakthrough.

    Many heartland safe seats are vulnerable IMO. Outside marginals like Eastleigh, incumbent activity is almost non-existent or stale, leaving the seat open to attack.

    There was a (Labour convert) speaker at the UKIP spring conference who said Labour were very good at nursing their seats.

    http://youtu.be/B9_ToBUY8I0?t=5m42s


  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    The situation in Cyprus is unbelievably bad.

    Greece was originally unbelievable - then became the norm.

    Which shows how shocking the Cypriot situation is.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BenM said:

    The situation in Cyprus is unbelievably bad.

    Greece was originally unbelievable - then became the norm.

    Which shows how shocking the Cypriot situation is.

    I cannot believe there is not overwhelming support in Cyprus to quit the Euro.

    I guess if you have €100k in the bank you might want to stay in - but other than that there are surely few benefits left.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "ROME: Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right coalition would win if the current deadlock forces new elections in Italy, but would fail to get enough votes for an overall majority in parliament, polls showed on Friday.
    A poll by the SWG Institute gave Berlusconi's coalition 32.4 percent of the vote, compared to Pier Luigi Bersani's centre-left forces at 30.0 percent.
    The anti-establishment Five Star Movement would get 24.0 percent.
    The poll, based on 1,500 respondents and with a margin of error of 2.9 percent, indicated that support for the centre-left and the Five Star Movement has ebbed since February 24-25 elections while backing for Berlusconi has risen."


    Which suggests that Grillo is shooting himself in the foot by refusing to do at least a limited deal with the centre-left. Having said that, presumably any new election would take place under a new and marginally less bonkers electoral law, so Berlusconi's narrow plurality may not be as significant as it appears.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    tim said:

    @Slackbladder

    What happened to the idiots posting about Labour in Eastleigh?
    They seem to have been exposed a bit by their assumption that UKIp will overtake the blues 20% second place in South Shields

    Labour did crap in Eastliegh, tories are likely to do crap in south shields.

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Some interesting charts comparing economic performance under recent Prime Ministers:

    http://touchstoneblog.org.uk/2013/04/eight-prime-ministers-and-the-economy/

    Rather shoots down the claim that Thatcher "saved us" from anything.
  • I don't think Thatcher is the problem in the north, outwith areas that have always been Labour. The seats the Tories need to win are the small towns where she was successful. The problem is more the perception of the Tories as a rich man's party. I would argue that having the party led by several Etonians is far more damaging to electoral prospects in the northern towns than having the small town girl who made good. Thatcher represented the aspirational small town dweller. Nobody can dream of making it to be born the son of a multi-millionaire.

    For the Tories to re-engage they have to show a road to success that doesn't go through being born with a silver spoon. It is why it is such a tragedy for the party that David Davis is too flaky and doesn't have the X factor to match his backstory. It is also why it is a mistake for Cameron to continue to have Osborne as his partner at the top.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Betting Post

    I've backed Haase to beat Klizan in the Grand Prix Hassan II at 2.7. They've met twice before, Haase won both times and, on clay (which the the tournament is), Haase won 6-3, 6-3 in the prior meeting.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    tim said:

    @Slackbladder.

    Yet the PB Tories were rambling on and on about Labour in Eastleigh, and the centre/left on here have hardly bothered to make the same points about the Tories in South Shields, despite them starting with double the 2010 percentage
    Is that just a reflection of how little the Tories understand FPTP?

    In the by-election, Labour hardly advanced on their 2010 Eastleigh performance.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    @Slackbladder

    What happened to the idiots posting about Labour in Eastleigh?
    They seem to have been exposed a bit by their assumption that UKIp will overtake the blues 20% second place in South Shields

    Dear tim, you really aren't on form today. It is best to take a few private moments of reflection when beset by grief.

    The discussion about Labour in Eastleigh was all about where the mid-term protest vote would go. Labour needed to stand a good candidate and fight the constituency in order to protect its position as the sole official opposition party.

    Instead it stood a joke as its candidate and UKIP won the protest votes.

    In South Shields, the question is whether there will be any leakage of the protest vote against the Government parties away from the official opposition party and if so by how much.

    The eyes are on the potential damage that UKIP can wreak on Labour's sense of entitlement to the constituency and to its national role as an opposition of credibility.

    Labour need not only to ward off the UKIP threat but post a significantly increased majority to convince.

    We now await the campaign and result. Hiding the by election on 2nd May will at least give your boys a running start as will the already completed (?) mountain of postal votes.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    tim said:

    @Slackbladder.

    Yet the PB Tories were rambling on and on about Labour in Eastleigh, and the centre/left on here have hardly bothered to make the same points about the Tories in South Shields, despite them starting with double the 2010 percentage
    Is that just a reflection of how little the Tories understand FPTP?

    No one's really talking about SS at all, with it being a 'donkey' seat.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    I wonder whether the trade mark holders (Unilever, I believe) have given their permission to the Guardian for this image?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Tonight's Conservative PPB - all about The EU Immigration Benefits.....sorry, tax, council tax, the budget and the deficit....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIZj0NzcjHQ&feature=youtu.be

    On Henry's topic - I think the lack of movement in the polls we have seen underlines that its the economy that will shift VI - no one who on Sunday thought 'I love the Tories and admire Thatcher' has had their mind changed in the last few days, nor has the minds of those who loathe both...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    I'll jump in before tim does and say that Ms Mensch is making a bit of a fool of herself on twitter over the pop charts.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited April 2013
    I don't think it matters a monkey **** what the CON or LD shares are in SShields. But Tim is right. The Tories in Eastleigh were desperate for LAB to advance because they saw that as their only path to victory.

    So I'd expect them to be making the same points about their party in the coming by-election.

    They can't have it both ways but then they try to.

    For what it's worth unless you are in contention vote shares are irrelevant.

    tim said:

    @Slackbladder.

    Yet the PB Tories were rambling on and on about Labour in Eastleigh, and the centre/left on here have hardly bothered to make the same points about the Tories in South Shields, despite them starting with double the 2010 percentage
    Is that just a reflection of how little the Tories understand FPTP?

    No one's really talking about SS at all, with it being a 'donkey' seat.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I have to say, looking at the invitation list for Margaret Thatcher's funeral does put me in mind of the good work that Guy Fawkes attempted to do.
  • JackieJackie Posts: 1
    TGOHF said:

    Just shows how dumb these voters are - 13 yrs of Labour and they are still whining about the PM from 30 years ago.

    The population of these Northern towns is dropping - take South Shields - down from 65,773 63,765 between 2000 and 2010 - those with any nous are fleeing south.


  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    @CarlottaVance

    I was somewhat unsure about who to vote for on May 2nd.

    Having seen the Conservative PPB, I am now convinced that I should vote Tory.

    It was the deficit coming down by a third that was the eye-opener. I really must make a resolution not to listen to tim and BenM on economic stats in the future.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540


    So I'd expect them to be making the same points about their party in the coming by-election.

    Why? Are Labour suddenly in government and the Tories in opposition?

    Apart from that....

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013


    So I'd expect them to be making the same points about their party in the coming by-election.

    Why? Are Labour suddenly in government and the Tories in opposition?

    Apart from that....

    I think it is time for Conor Burns to start making weekly visits to Smithson Towers.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Clegg is getting advice too:

    In one of the fiercest attacks made against Mr Clegg’s leadership from his own side, Lord Greaves of Pendle warned of a “huge clash” between “the new risen saviour” Ryan Coetzee and the party’s old guard in the run-up to the next General Election.
    Mr Coetzee, 40, was hired by the Deputy Prime Minister last year and receives a £110,000 salary at the taxpayer’s expense. He is considered one of the key figures responsible for transforming South Africa’s Democratic Alliance into the country’s main opposition party.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/9990166/Lib-Dems-face-political-suicide-over-new-strategist.html
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    AveryLP said:

    @CarlottaVance

    I was somewhat unsure about who to vote for on May 2nd.

    Having seen the Conservative PPB, I am now convinced that I should vote Tory.

    It was the deficit coming down by a third that was the eye-opener. I really must make a resolution not to listen to tim and BenM on economic stats in the future.

    ALP, Even I'm moved to point out that your voting intentions are somewhat transparent. :-)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Any gourmets on the site today I rather like the sound of this first course from a Michelin restaurant just outside Ghent but I fear that something has got lost in translation.

    "Beautiful girl crusty baked, young shoots, cream of vegetables "

    pic.twitter.com/8EtRFIrAfy
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Clegg is getting advice too:

    In one of the fiercest attacks made against Mr Clegg’s leadership from his own side, Lord Greaves of Pendle warned of a “huge clash” between “the new risen saviour” Ryan Coetzee and the party’s old guard in the run-up to the next General Election.
    Mr Coetzee, 40, was hired by the Deputy Prime Minister last year and receives a £110,000 salary at the taxpayer’s expense. He is considered one of the key figures responsible for transforming South Africa’s Democratic Alliance into the country’s main opposition party.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/9990166/Lib-Dems-face-political-suicide-over-new-strategist.html

    I am sure all Liberal Democrats will be relieved to know that Ryan Coetzee is white, middle-aged and male.

    Panic over!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    edited April 2013
    @Antifrank

    sack him, sack the heretic...

    Has the former Labour candidate for Eastleigh had anything to say about the late Margaret Thatcher.

    As for Labour in Eastleigh, if they didn't mount a serious campaign, how can Ed Miliband claim that Labour stands for One Nation Britain?
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    Any gourmets on the site today I rather like the sound of this first course from a Michelin restaurant just outside Ghent but I fear that something has got lost in translation.

    "Beautiful girl crusty baked, young shoots, cream of vegetables "

    pic.twitter.com/8EtRFIrAfy

    Mike, behave yourself, your old enough to be her (grand)father :-)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    OGH - is it a Polynesian restaurant?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Yesterday I spoke about Herself's reaction to the £306 gas bill. We have just had the electric bill (£230) and she has gone ape-shit. It is all my fault apparently, "Spending all day on that bloody computer". I may be away for some time.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Avery

    Poor Conor, so much death this year, Mrs T, and worse still, when pretending to be Maria Hutchings in the Eastleigh R5 hustings, his own.

    I didn't know much about him before this week. He comes across well: a wonderful mimic with a great sense of humour. a self-deprecating lack of personal ambition and a heart of gold.

    It does make you wonder why the Eastleigh electorate spurned him in favour of Chris Huhne in 2005!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Yesterday I spoke about Herself's reaction to the £306 gas bill. We have just had the electric bill (£230) and she has gone ape-shit. It is all my fault apparently, "Spending all day on that bloody computer". I may be away for some time.

    LOL! Good luck Captain Oates....
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    David Skelton is just the sort of person that would find a welcome home in Ukip. Ukip is now the only party talking to these working class communities on a regular basis.

    I hate to bring up that divisive word, class, but it is a fact of life and until these communities, and others, find some hope in policies directed towards them, then class will continue to divide britain like no other country in western europe.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    @hurst_Lama

    Ovens, irons, kettles use much more than computers...blame Ed M, Chris Huhne, Ed Davey for levying green taxes.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Blue_rog said:

    AveryLP said:

    @CarlottaVance

    I was somewhat unsure about who to vote for on May 2nd.

    Having seen the Conservative PPB, I am now convinced that I should vote Tory.

    It was the deficit coming down by a third that was the eye-opener. I really must make a resolution not to listen to tim and BenM on economic stats in the future.

    ALP, Even I'm moved to point out that your voting intentions are somewhat transparent. :-)
    Shhhhh, Blue Rog. You are giving Pork an unfair advantage.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    BBC won't play Ding Dong in full.
  • JonCJonC Posts: 67
    On topic, if "memories" of someone who was Prime Minister 23 years ago are seriously a factor in voting intentions then it is hard to know what to say or do if you are a tory.

    Her effect on these communities has become the stuff of myth and legend (and gross exaggeration), and bears little resemblance to the truth, and no consideration whatsoever is given to what woud have happend in 1979 if labour had won. Woudl everything have been rosy? Would it f*ck.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    AveryLP said:

    @CarlottaVance

    I was somewhat unsure about who to vote for on May 2nd.

    Having seen the Conservative PPB, I am now convinced that I should vote Tory.

    It was the deficit coming down by a third that was the eye-opener. I really must make a resolution not to listen to tim and BenM on economic stats in the future.

    A bit of an easy sucker for Tory propaganda, there Avery.

    We know that the deficit has only come down because the Tories stopped capital investment which also holed the entire construction industry below the line (and contributed to the double-dip and potentially triple-dip recessions).

    We also know that deficit reduction has now stalled and that the nominal deficit will be stuck at £120billions for a couple of years, only falling due to some wild growth forecasts which are bound to be wrong.
  • BBC won't play Ding Dong in full.

    Just play the fecking song, get it over and done with. Let the ones revelling in the death of an old lady dance around, and the ones mourning her have their moments outrage. I'm sick of it all.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Go green and screw the poor - great policy from Huhne and Miliband.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    A business repellent shadow business secretary,will he take up their invitation & mix with trash?


    'London clubs today criticised under-fire Labour star Chuka Umunna claiming he is “out of touch” for saying West End nightspots are “full of trash”.

    The owners of five clubs wrote to the shadow business secretary saying they were “appalled” at his comments and invited him for a night out to see what it was really like.

    The open letter read: “The UK’s night-time economy is worth £66 billion every year. Mr Umunna criticises an industry which brings in millions of pounds to the capital and provides thousands of jobs.”
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited April 2013
    john_zims said:

    ,will he take up their invitation & mix with trash?

    I doubt he's paid enough to compensate him for having to go out in the clubs listed in that article.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    OK, the system's swallowed my post, so a precis:

    - Thatcher won plenty of these seats when she was alive, so it's difficult to see why she should prevent their being won now she's dead (and a quarter of a century after she left office).

    - The Tories don't need to win many of the urban northern (and Scottish) seats, other than for a landslide. With only 20, they came close to a majority. it's the semi-rural / suburban seats that will decide who ends up in No 10.

    - Thatcher's death and burial will be old news by May, never mind 2015.

    - The valid points in Henry's article are about the Tories' trouble with women and minorities, and about being perceived as a party for a special interest (the rich), when Labour isn't so seen. They, however, don't have much to do with Thatcher.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    How does I wept in Copenhagen Miliband gain?

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    BenM said:


    We know that the deficit has only come down because the Tories stopped capital investment

    Labour planned to cut capital investment by more.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Neil said:

    BenM said:


    We know that the deficit has only come down because the Tories stopped capital investment

    Labour planned to cut capital investment by more.
    Yep. And would rightly be pulled up for claiming that as some sort of success.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    This is nothing to do with Thatcher, but a problem of not having modernised the Tory party enough, so that it appeals to the whole country. Major won in 1992 with over 14 million votes, which I think is more than Thatcher obtained in her 3 election wins. In polling, I think over 50% always say that Tories appeal to one section of society i.e the rich. The current cabinet are not doing anything which might change this view. The Tories need to have a cabinet that reflects the country they are trying to govern and under Cameron I don't think this is possible. Osborne changing his posh squeaky voice in a Morrisons warehouse, so that he sounded less posh, was just embarrasing.

    The Tories need to fully modernise their party, to stand any chance of winning a majority. This is going to take a while, as I am not sure many older party members are that keen on change.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776

    OK, the system's swallowed my post, so a precis:

    - Thatcher won plenty of these seats when she was alive, so it's difficult to see why she should prevent their being won now she's dead (and a quarter of a century after she left office).

    - The Tories don't need to win many of the urban northern (and Scottish) seats, other than for a landslide. With only 20, they came close to a majority. it's the semi-rural / suburban seats that will decide who ends up in No 10.

    - Thatcher's death and burial will be old news by May, never mind 2015.

    - The valid points in Henry's article are about the Tories' trouble with women and minorities, and about being perceived as a party for a special interest (the rich), when Labour isn't so seen. They, however, don't have much to do with Thatcher.

    It would be great to win seats in the city limits of Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, Sheffield, but the Conservatives would be heading for a majority of 100+ if they did.

    Overall, the Conservatives don't have that much difficulty winning working class support.

  • hucks67 said:

    This is nothing to do with Thatcher, but a problem of not having modernised the Tory party enough, so that it appeals to the whole country. Major won in 1992 with over 14 million votes, which I think is more than Thatcher obtained in her 3 election wins. In polling, I think over 50% always say that Tories appeal to one section of society i.e the rich. The current cabinet are not doing anything which might change this view. The Tories need to have a cabinet that reflects the country they are trying to govern and under Cameron I don't think this is possible. Osborne changing his posh squeaky voice in a Morrisons warehouse, so that he sounded less posh, was just embarrasing.

    The Tories need to fully modernise their party, to stand any chance of winning a majority. This is going to take a while, as I am not sure many older party members are that keen on change.

    Do you have any suggestions for change?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    Interesting that Farage is both the oldest of the 4 main party leaders and still younger than the average person who bothers to vote.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    @hucks67. Not sure I really agree with that. it's not so much being a cabinet of the people than for the people. As long as people feel that the government's doing all right for them, they'll support it, no matter how many went to Eton. The problem at the moment - and ever since the top-rate cut was announced - is that they don't feel that "we're all in it together".

    What's needed is a two-pronged strategy. Firstly, taking the fight to Labour and establishing how empty of solutions and in the pocket of special interests they are, and secondly, picking on some popular internal targets to recover the support of the working poor and moderately-off. I'd suggest bankers and benefits scroungers.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited April 2013
    @tim

    Want to have a bet on Osborne apologising to the House over the exchange with Reeves? ;)
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Ding Dong is at number 3 in the Friday update of the weekly chart.

    BBC says they will not play it in full...which is pretty pointless, you either ban it or play in full....what will they do? Play just Ding Dong and not The Witch is Dead?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:


    Want to go back and correct your hundreds of posts making the same false claim as Osborne?

    I will if you want to explain how the Coalition slashing capital expenditure has blown economic growth out of the water whereas Labour doing it wouldnt have done any damage at all.

    Deal?

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Tim Gatt ‏@TimGattITV 1m
    BBC to play 'up to five seconds' of Ding Dong song http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-04-12/bbc-will-to-play-up-to-five-seconds-of-ding-dong-song/ … #Thatcher via @itvnews #DingDongThisIsAMess

  • tim said:

    @drspyn

    Lame.

    It's all lame, tim. The left with their outrage at Thatcher, and the right canonising her. It's pathetic.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    SeanT said:

    One of the most disturbing news stories I have ever heard. #Gosnell

    Be warned. http://newsbusters.org/blogs/jill-stanek/2013/04/11/four-reasons-why-media-isnt-covering-gosnell-mass-murder-trial

    “Be warned” doesn’t begin to cover it - what a depressingly ghastly thing to be happening in this day an age. The mind boggles at such inhumanity.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Tim

    Like you wont be calling for a national day of mourning when Tony goes!
  • tim said:

    BBC won't play Ding Dong in full.

    Just play the fecking song, get it over and done with. Let the ones revelling in the death of an old lady dance around, and the ones mourning her have their moments outrage. I'm sick of it all.

    It's escalating

    David Cameron views Margaret Thatcher death song with 'personal distaste'

    You just know there was a meeting to decide that choice of words don't you.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/margaret-thatcher/9990385/David-Cameron-views-Margaret-Thatcher-death-song-with-personal-distaste.html

    Ed Miliband will be announcing his stance on playing the song in 2015.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    tim said:

    @TwistedFireStopper

    I agree.
    What on earth would've been wrong with a private funeral, a memorial service in Westminster Abbey or St Pauls and a couple of hours tributes in Parliament on Monday.

    The whole thing is embarrassing.

    Why do you think Blair & Brown decided to do it this way?

  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    The Witch Is Dead is the best thing about this week.

    That the Kids are still inclined to tweak the tail of the tiger is uplifting.

    That they're doing it by handing cash to MegaCorp Inc, making rich people richer, is ironic as it's exactly what Thatcher would've wanted.

    And the befuddled reaction of the mainstream Right, Left and Centre, who don't know whether to be Outraged or rise above it, is hilarious.

    Ding dong!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    SeanT said:

    Republicans are saying liberal-lefties won't go near it because it taints the pro-choice case.

    Really? I would have thought it was a textbook example of what can happen when you make abortion illegal. (While abortion isnt illegal in the state it seems to be that most cases related to women presenting after the legal abortion limit.) Rather like the coroner's inquiry into a death of a pregnant woman in Galway going on this week.

    There can be many theories for why it failed to get the coverage you might expect until now but I dont think pro-choice bias makes sense.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Neil said:

    @Tim

    Like you wont be calling for a national day of mourning when Tony goes!

    But, Neil, by the time Tony goes we will have learnt from out mistakes, drawn a line in the sand and moved on.

    I forsee a funeral similar to that of Murphy in Samuel Beckett's eponymous novel. Murphy had been cremated and his ashes were placed in a paper bag and given to Cooper:

    Some hours later, Cooper took the packet of ash from his pocket where earlier in the evening he had put it for greater security, and threw it angrily at a man who had given him great offence. It bounced and burst off the wall and onto the floor, where at once it became the object of much dribbling, passing, trapping, shooting, punching, heading and even some recognition from the gentleman’s code. By closing time the body, mind and soul of Murphy were freely distributed over the floor of the saloon, and before another dayspring greyened the earth, had been swept away with the sand, the beer, the butts, the glass, the matches, the spits, the vomit.

    Now that would be a real send off. An Irish Ceremonial Funeral.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "He is considered one of the key figures responsible for transforming South Africa’s Democratic Alliance into the country’s main opposition party."

    I'm not sure how much of an achievement that is. given that the ANC are still utterly dominant, and given that the New National Party gave up the ghost completely.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    Obama voted for Partial Late Term abortion

    Perhaps it's not getting the coverage you want because people know that plankton will try to turn it into a political issue, thereby making the whole appalling thing a grotesque points-scoring exercise?
  • shipmate1shipmate1 Posts: 37
    This site is so tribal and today is one of the worse lurking days ever. Mike Smithson "intervenes" to say you can't have it both ways!! WTH - that's what this site is all about!!

    Tenuous links and attacks - who the fcuk cares when Parliament was recalled outside PB world for example.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Neil said:

    There can be many theories for why it failed to get the coverage you might expect until now but I dont think pro-choice bias makes sense.

    Slate think:

    "Let's just state the obvious: National political reporters are, by and large, socially liberal. We are more likely to know a gay couple than to know someone who owns an "assault weapon." We are, generally, pro-choice....There is a bubble. Horror stories of abortionists are less likely to permeate that bubble than, say, a story about a right-wing pundit attacking an abortionist who then claims to have gotten death threats.

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2013/04/12/kermit_gosnell_the_alleged_mass_murderer_and_the_bored_media.html

    So the 'bias' may be unconscious rather than deliberate - but it is curious that this baby charnel house has not received more coverage....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    @Tim "David Cameron views Margaret Thatcher death song with 'personal distaste'"

    Remember prisoners getting the vote made him feel "physically sick".

    A bit of a wimp our PM.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited April 2013


    So the 'bias' may be unconscious rather than deliberate

    I dont see the case for pro-choice bias at all.

    This guy is as much an argument against abortion as Harold Shipman was against the practice of general medicine.

  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    Neil said:


    So the 'bias' may be unconscious rather than deliberate

    I dont see the case for pro-choice bias at all.

    This guy is as much an argument against abortion as Harold Shipman was against the practice of general medicine.

    Or Mick Philpott was against the welfare state.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    SeanT said:

    carl said:

    Obama voted for Partial Late Term abortion

    Perhaps it's not getting the coverage you want because people know that plankton will try to turn it into a political issue, thereby making the whole appalling thing a grotesque points-scoring exercise?

    So essentially you agree: liberal media are refusing to cover it because they are afraid it gives ammunition to pro-lifers (or "plankton" as you prefer to call them), and the whole thing damages Obama etc.

    I certainly hope so.

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Remember prisoners getting the vote made him feel "physically sick".

    A bit of a wimp our PM."


    Well said! Quite a few of the things that David Cameron has done in office make me feel physically sick, but I'd expect a Prime Minister to have a stronger constitution.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited April 2013
    'Comment is free' online poll asks 'Do you want Ding Dong The Witch is Dead' to top the charts. So far it's 80/20 in favour.

    I'm surprised. Where did the 20% come from?

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/poll/2013/apr/12/ding-dong-the-witch-is-dead
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    edited April 2013
    carl said:

    The Witch Is Dead is the best thing about this week.

    That the Kids are still inclined to tweak the tail of the tiger is uplifting.


    That they're doing it by handing cash to MegaCorp Inc, making rich people richer, is ironic as it's exactly what Thatcher would've wanted.

    And the befuddled reaction of the mainstream Right, Left and Centre, who don't know whether to be Outraged or rise above it, is hilarious.

    Ding dong!

    Grow up
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    The Mail has the Gosnell story now:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2308143/Dr-Kermit-Gosnell-trial-Teen-intern-house-horrors-abortion-clinic-tells-heard-aborted-fetus-screeching.html

    Interesting that its getting broader coverage over here than over there.....
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    "Remember prisoners getting the vote made him feel "physically sick".

    A bit of a wimp our PM."


    Well said! Quite a few of the things that David Cameron has done in office make me feel physically sick, but I'd expect a Prime Minister to have a stronger constitution.

    ... and sounder politics, James.
  • Bob_SykesBob_Sykes Posts: 11
    Delighted that the BBC won't be playing the hate song. I'm not in favour of banning stuff, but this isn't a ban - it's just basic common decency. The news report fudge is what it is, but at least it means the hate-filled, spiteful, bile-spewing lefty Twitterati, who have been waiting years for her to die so they can get this song in the charts and played on Radio 1, have just had their chips pissed on.

    And that cheers me up. It's almost as good as the day that Scargill was finally crushed. :)
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    SeanT said:


    Even democrat and liberal journalists are now, belatedly, accepting that some liberal bias has been at work in this case.

    I'm sure you can agree that democrat and liberal journalists can be wrong. If the story has the power to convince anyone on the issue of abortion (and I doubt it does) then it makes a case for legalising abortion rather than sending it underground to the likes of this guy. I'd look for the reason for the relative lack of coverage to date elsewhere.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Bob_Sykes said:

    I'm not in favour of banning stuff, but this isn't a ban - it's just basic common decency.

    Wonderful! War is peace. Black is white.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "... and sounder politics, James."

    Well that's certainly a forlorn hope, Cousin of Seth.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "I'm not in favour of banning stuff, but this isn't a ban - it's just basic common decency."

    Could I just say that I'm not in favour of banning stuff, but my proposed ban on the Conservative Party is not really a ban, it's just basic common decency.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Roger said:

    'I'm surprised. Where did the 20% come from?

    If it doesn't get to 100% remember there are only so many Westboro Baptists....

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Well that didn't take long

    A serving police officer who sent a series of sickening tweets about the death of Margaret Thatcher has today resigned from his job at Scotland Yard.

    Sergeant Jeremy Scott said he hoped the former prime minister’s death at the age of 87 was ‘painful and degrading’.

    The 52-year-old Metropolitan Police officer also suggested the world would be a ‘better place’ if David Cameron, too, were dead.

    Scotland Yard said today: 'The officer concerned, today submitted his resignation and it was accepted with immediate effect.' http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2307705/Scotland-Yard-sergeant-Jeremy-Scott-resigns-Margaret-Thatcher-degrading-painful-death-tweets.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The BBC are in an invidious position. But they're not obliged to play any given record on Radio 1 (as Status Quo, Cliff Richard and others could confirm). Nor are they obliged to play anything that appears in the chart. No one is stopping the public buying the record in whatever format they choose. That doesn't mean that they have the right to hear it played over the radio.

    So Bob Sykes's position is defensible.

    However, I disagree with it. The record is not intrinsically offensive. A section of the public are very keen to have their view heard, and they should be entitled to have it heard.

    And while several thousand unsuspecting heterosexuals will have been introduced to the works of Judy Garland, there's no reason why the homosexual agenda should not be pursued further by making sure that millions of impressionable teenagers also get that pleasure.
  • Bob_SykesBob_Sykes Posts: 11
    tim said:

    @BobSykes

    Guess which paper printed this editorial

    I'm not against free speech. If some plank wants to stand in Trafalgar Square and shout "ding dong the witch is dead" then so be it.

    But I don't think the state broadcaster, or any broadcaster for that matter, should play a song celebrating the death of a frail 87 year old woman 2 days before her funeral, regardless of whether it's in the hit parade.

    It's nowhere near analagous to the Mohammed cartoons.
This discussion has been closed.