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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP might be edging back in the polls but was the biggest vot

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited August 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP might be edging back in the polls but was the biggest vote loser in the July 2018 Local By-Elections

Conservatives 13,142 votes (37% +3% on last time) winning 11 seats (-1 seat on last time) Labour 11,198 votes (31% +2% on last time) winning 9 seats (-1 seat on last time) Liberal Democrats 5,670 votes (16% +5% on last time) winning 3 seats (+1 seat on last time) Independent Candidates 2,278 votes (6% +3% on last time) winning 2 seats (+2 seats on last time) Green Party 862 votes (2% -5% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Plaid Cymru 747 votes (2% +1% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Local Independent Candidates 737 votes (2% -1% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) United Kingdom Independence Party 515 votes (1% -9% on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 seat on last time) Other Parties 498 votes (1% +0% on last time) winning 0 seats ((unchanged on last time) Conservative lead of 1,944 votes (6%) on a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con

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Comments

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    1st
  • Sleazy broken UKIP on the slide.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited August 2018
    The 2018 locals were pre Chequers, next May I expect the UKIP total to be more than double this May's total and the Tories to see heavy seat losses to Labour given the seats were last up in 2015 when the Tories won a majority at the general election on the same day
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Sleazy broken parties of all flavours marking time wrt one another. Even ukip not exactly falling off a cliff.
  • What's the difference between an Independent and a local Independent?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    What's the difference between an Independent and a local Independent?

    Anti-semitic dogwhistle. Local = not a citizen of nowhere.

    Probably.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    edited August 2018

    What's the difference between an Independent and a local Independent?

    I guess independent means a one man band. Whereas local independent means residents associations etc.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited August 2018

    What's the difference between an Independent and a local Independent?

    The latter usually have a (local) place name in their descriptor, usually as part of a group.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Cheers for this, Mr. Hayfield.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    What's the difference between an Independent and a local Independent?

    The latter usually have a (local) place name in their descriptor, usually as part of a group.
    Dunny-on-the-Wold First.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Thanks Harry!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    There hasn't actually been any UKIP edging outside MOE.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    Have all the default profile pictures been changed round? I'd got used to them as a handy visual identifier, and now have to double check the name to see who's savagely flogging their particular hobbyhorse.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    This is a *local* independent for *local* people.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Thanks Harry. Always useful to have some real numbers.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    The 2018 locals were pre Chequers, next May I expect the UKIP total to be more than double this May's total and the Tories to see heavy seat losses to Labour given the seats were last up in 2015 when the Tories won a majority at the general election on the same day

    That is no big deal. In May UKIP was defending 126 seats and succeeded in just three of them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Another bad morning at R4 by sounds of things:

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1024910764451266561
  • It should be remembered UKIP polled 13% in the 2015 locals so we might see Con net gains next May.

    That said I do expect the Tories to do poorly next May.

    The blue meanies led Labour by 6% back in 2015 and it coincided with the only time in the last 27 years the Tories have won a majority in a general election.

    It is fair to say Theresa May is no David Cameron (pbuh)
  • Th FT pointed out yesterday that the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU (where we agree to pay them £40bn) is a legal agreement whilst any trade agreement will be a vague aspiration.

    So it is not true that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

    Remember Blair's negotiations with the EEC, where the UK agreed to a reduced rebate (which happened) in return for vague aspirations to revise the CAP (which never happened). The Brexit agreement sounds like it is going the same way.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Another bad morning at R4 by sounds of things

    https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/1024941503007924224
  • Another bad morning at R4 by sounds of things:

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1024910764451266561

    Hard to believe Today has shed 800,000 listeners in the last year.

    I'm sure it has nothing to do with Sarah Sands becoming editor.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/aug/02/bbcs-today-programme-sheds-800000-listeners
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited August 2018

    Another bad morning at R4 by sounds of things:

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1024910764451266561

    Kassam screeching about him and his buddies being called 'far right' encapsulates their Overton Window capers.

    R4 also straight into Evan Davis with Jordan Peterson at 9am. If there is a culture war, the far right are winning the air war.
  • Sleazy broken UKIP on the slide.

    If UKIP are on the slide, who are on the swings and who are on the seesaw?
  • Have all the default profile pictures been changed round? I'd got used to them as a handy visual identifier, and now have to double check the name to see who's savagely flogging their particular hobbyhorse.

    Vanilla are in the process of an upgrade, so things maybe variable for a while.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    There hasn't actually been any UKIP edging outside MOE.

    Bolton has probably done a bit of edging with his racist femme fatale.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    FPT:

    After a whole week of the Tesco Strawberry score running at a steady eight the the last three days has seen it fall to a seven.

    More interestingly Tesco now have redcurrents from Perthshire and sweetcorn cobettes from West Sussex.

    Redcurrents? Rivers of blood?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Have all the default profile pictures been changed round? I'd got used to them as a handy visual identifier, and now have to double check the name to see who's savagely flogging their particular hobbyhorse.

    Vanilla are in the process of an upgrade, so things maybe variable for a while.
    Oh sh*t!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Have all the default profile pictures been changed round? I'd got used to them as a handy visual identifier, and now have to double check the name to see who's savagely flogging their particular hobbyhorse.

    Vanilla are in the process of an upgrade, so things maybe variable for a while.
    HYUFD has turned into a tab of acid.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Scott_P said:

    Another bad morning at R4 by sounds of things

    https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/1024941503007924224
    There was a time it was how you had to start your day. No more.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Have all the default profile pictures been changed round? I'd got used to them as a handy visual identifier, and now have to double check the name to see who's savagely flogging their particular hobbyhorse.

    Vanilla are in the process of an upgrade, so things maybe variable for a while.
    HYUFD has turned into a tab of acid.
    His avatar's not looking too good either!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Take off your rose tinted glasses.

    The Today programme has always been drivel. They pretty much invented the BBC "balance fallacy" where you take a sane person and a mad person, make them argue, and then imply the Objective Truth is halfway in between.

    It was nonsense then and it's nonsense now.

    And do not get me fucking STARTED on Thought For The Day.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    And do not get me fucking STARTED on Thought For The Day.

    "And, in a funny kind of way, Jesus was a Brexiteer....."
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    edited August 2018
    Scott_P said:
    Schrödinger's Leaver: Simultaneously berating Project Fear over no deal whilst demanding the English countryside be ripped up so we can credibly threaten no deal.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited August 2018
    Mr. Rata, a nice parallel for Schrödinger's Remainer: simultaneously claiming the EU doesn't have too much power whilst claiming we'll run out of insulin and be unable to have sandwiches if we leave the EU.

    Either that or there are some fringe fellows on both sides and a far larger number of quieter people closer to the middle.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Solid construction figures this AM following reasonable manufacturing figures yesterday. Hopefully tomorrow's services figures will continue the trend. I'm confident now in predicting 0.5% GDP growth for Q3. The only downside risk is a possible slowdown in Europe(!). Whatever effect Brexit is or isn't having on the current timeline is very difficult to see. I think it will become more prominent in Q4 with investment decisions being put off until after Brexit day since companies will wait until the smoke clears to see when and where to invest.

    The government could do a lot to ease business jitters over Brexit by announcing a huge matched investment fund for brexit preparation and have a very loose set of rules as to what counts. It may look like a gigantic bung to big business (because it would be) but it would have the effect of getting big business to commit to the UK for the medium term and making it work in some manner.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    It's alright TSE you can carry on watering your begonias! :smile:

    United Utilities calls off summer hosepipe ban in England

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-45043191

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    MaxPB said:



    The government could do a lot to ease business jitters over Brexit by announcing a huge matched investment fund for brexit preparation and have a very loose set of rules as to what counts. It may look like a gigantic bung to big business (because it would be) but it would have the effect of getting big business to commit to the UK for the medium term and making it work in some manner.

    Where's the money coming from for this corporate welfare?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    MaxPB said:

    Solid construction figures this AM following reasonable manufacturing figures yesterday. Hopefully tomorrow's services figures will continue the trend. I'm confident now in predicting 0.5% GDP growth for Q3. The only downside risk is a possible slowdown in Europe(!). Whatever effect Brexit is or isn't having on the current timeline is very difficult to see. I think it will become more prominent in Q4 with investment decisions being put off until after Brexit day since companies will wait until the smoke clears to see when and where to invest.

    The government could do a lot to ease business jitters over Brexit by announcing a huge matched investment fund for brexit preparation and have a very loose set of rules as to what counts. It may look like a gigantic bung to big business (because it would be) but it would have the effect of getting big business to commit to the UK for the medium term and making it work in some manner.

    Yeah. Let's take the money from the NHS budget.

    As a matter of interest, do you / will you be working for big business? ;)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    MaxPB said:

    Solid construction figures this AM following reasonable manufacturing figures yesterday. Hopefully tomorrow's services figures will continue the trend. I'm confident now in predicting 0.5% GDP growth for Q3. The only downside risk is a possible slowdown in Europe(!). Whatever effect Brexit is or isn't having on the current timeline is very difficult to see. I think it will become more prominent in Q4 with investment decisions being put off until after Brexit day since companies will wait until the smoke clears to see when and where to invest.

    The government could do a lot to ease business jitters over Brexit by announcing a huge matched investment fund for brexit preparation and have a very loose set of rules as to what counts. It may look like a gigantic bung to big business (because it would be) but it would have the effect of getting big business to commit to the UK for the medium term and making it work in some manner.

    Can't argue with that but as it sounds like a sensible idea it's obviously not going to occur to this government. :(
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Clearly, the nation will benefit from cultural enrichment. The most sensible use of public money would be giving a bung investing wisely in a new artistic endeavours fund, particularly aiding those who write fantasy [who may also find secondary employment working on manifestos at the next election].
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:



    The government could do a lot to ease business jitters over Brexit by announcing a huge matched investment fund for brexit preparation and have a very loose set of rules as to what counts. It may look like a gigantic bung to big business (because it would be) but it would have the effect of getting big business to commit to the UK for the medium term and making it work in some manner.

    Where's the money coming from for this corporate welfare?
    The government is working from the OBR borrowing projection of £37bn this year, actual borrowing is set to come in at closer to £25bn this year. Even if half of that was banked and the rest spent on bribing the big companies to stay it would unleash a huge amount of investment and make them commit for the medium term (which is all we need, in the long term Brexit doesn't really make a big difference one way or the other).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Mr. Rata, a nice parallel for Schrödinger's Remainer: simultaneously claiming the EU doesn't have too much power whilst claiming we'll run out of insulin and be unable to have sandwiches if we leave the EU.

    Either that or there are some fringe fellows on both sides and a far larger number of quieter people closer to the middle.

    That's way below your usual standard of analysis Morris. If we run out of insulin that will be entirely down to the UK's choices, nothing to do with EU power.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785

    Mr. Rata, a nice parallel for Schrödinger's Remainer: simultaneously claiming the EU doesn't have too much power whilst claiming we'll run out of insulin and be unable to have sandwiches if we leave the EU.

    Either that or there are some fringe fellows on both sides and a far larger number of quieter people closer to the middle.

    I will defend Schrödinger's Remainer. The examples you give are more responsibilities than powers.

    The sort of quiet but essential things we used to shift off into quangos in decades past and without which we couldn't function. We railed against quangos as well thinking them a nonsense.

    You may talk of the political and federalising ambitions of the EU if you will, but that is somewhat separate from the superquango function it performs.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    MaxPB said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:



    The government could do a lot to ease business jitters over Brexit by announcing a huge matched investment fund for brexit preparation and have a very loose set of rules as to what counts. It may look like a gigantic bung to big business (because it would be) but it would have the effect of getting big business to commit to the UK for the medium term and making it work in some manner.

    Where's the money coming from for this corporate welfare?
    The government is working from the OBR borrowing projection of £37bn this year, actual borrowing is set to come in at closer to £25bn this year. Even if half of that was banked and the rest spent on bribing the big companies to stay it would unleash a huge amount of investment and make them commit for the medium term (which is all we need, in the long term Brexit doesn't really make a big difference one way or the other).
    Right, so you want the government to borrow 6bn quid and give it away to big companies using a "very loose set of rules". How does "fuck off" sound?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Clearly, the nation will benefit from cultural enrichment. The most sensible use of public money would be giving a bung investing wisely in a new artistic endeavours fund, particularly aiding those who write fantasy [who may also find secondary employment working on manifestos at the next election].

    Were you involved with the creation of this fanasty piece at the last election? Just asking :wink:

    https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    It's not the EU's fault that the UK decided to drive a fucking freight train through its just-in-time supply chains.

    Any and all disruption will have been cause by a complete failure of the UK government to have any idea how supply chains work until it was already too late.
  • Another bad morning at R4 by sounds of things:

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1024910764451266561

    Kassam screeching about him and his buddies being called 'far right' encapsulates their Overton Window capers.

    R4 also straight into Evan Davis with Jordan Peterson at 9am. If there is a culture war, the far right are winning the air war.
    No wonder it’s lost 800k listeners. I wouldn’t want to listen to Kassam and Peterson either.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Clearly, the nation will benefit from cultural enrichment. The most sensible use of public money would be giving a bung investing wisely in a new artistic endeavours fund, particularly aiding those who write fantasy [who may also find secondary employment working on manifestos at the next election].

    Were you involved with the creation of this fanasty piece at the last election? Just asking :wink:

    https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto
    Weird, that page is just a picture of a tumbleweed?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Solid construction figures this AM following reasonable manufacturing figures yesterday. Hopefully tomorrow's services figures will continue the trend. I'm confident now in predicting 0.5% GDP growth for Q3. The only downside risk is a possible slowdown in Europe(!). Whatever effect Brexit is or isn't having on the current timeline is very difficult to see. I think it will become more prominent in Q4 with investment decisions being put off until after Brexit day since companies will wait until the smoke clears to see when and where to invest.

    The government could do a lot to ease business jitters over Brexit by announcing a huge matched investment fund for brexit preparation and have a very loose set of rules as to what counts. It may look like a gigantic bung to big business (because it would be) but it would have the effect of getting big business to commit to the UK for the medium term and making it work in some manner.

    Yeah. Let's take the money from the NHS budget.

    As a matter of interest, do you / will you be working for big business? ;)
    We wouldn't need to, as I said just now.

    Where I work is irrelevant and I'm not sure my employer would benefit from a Brexit preparation fund, mainly because they've already spent the money without it!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited August 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:



    The government could do a lot to ease business jitters over Brexit by announcing a huge matched investment fund for brexit preparation and have a very loose set of rules as to what counts. It may look like a gigantic bung to big business (because it would be) but it would have the effect of getting big business to commit to the UK for the medium term and making it work in some manner.

    Where's the money coming from for this corporate welfare?
    The government is working from the OBR borrowing projection of £37bn this year, actual borrowing is set to come in at closer to £25bn this year. Even if half of that was banked and the rest spent on bribing the big companies to stay it would unleash a huge amount of investment and make them commit for the medium term (which is all we need, in the long term Brexit doesn't really make a big difference one way or the other).
    Right, so you want the government to borrow 6bn quid and give it away to big companies using a "very loose set of rules". How does "fuck off" sound?
    It (your response) sounds stupid. The £6bn would be good value if it staved off a recession.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Clearly, the nation will benefit from cultural enrichment. The most sensible use of public money would be giving a bung investing wisely in a new artistic endeavours fund, particularly aiding those who write fantasy [who may also find secondary employment working on manifestos at the next election].

    Were you involved with the creation of this fanasty piece at the last election? Just asking :wink:

    https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto
    Weird, that page is just a picture of a tumbleweed?
    Effectively, yes.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Morning all :)

    I see we now have to bribe companies to stay after we leave the EU. I thought the post-EU scenario would involve slashing regulations, corporation tax and employment protection to encourage companies to stay - the so-called "Singapore-on-Thames" option.

    Or am I forgetting that leaving the EU is meant to benefit all of us not just the wealthy or big business ? Interesting to see one of the most "popular" policies any new Party could follow would be harsh regulation on big business. There's not an anti-business climate here but there is an anti-global big business climate.

    On a tangent, the Single Market is of course Thatcherism Triumphant - instead of getting on a bike and looking for work as Norman Tebbit's father did (allegedly), hundreds of thousands have got on coaches, vans, buses, trains and lorries and come to western Europe looking for work.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:



    The government could do a lot to ease business jitters over Brexit by announcing a huge matched investment fund for brexit preparation and have a very loose set of rules as to what counts. It may look like a gigantic bung to big business (because it would be) but it would have the effect of getting big business to commit to the UK for the medium term and making it work in some manner.

    Where's the money coming from for this corporate welfare?
    The government is working from the OBR borrowing projection of £37bn this year, actual borrowing is set to come in at closer to £25bn this year. Even if half of that was banked and the rest spent on bribing the big companies to stay it would unleash a huge amount of investment and make them commit for the medium term (which is all we need, in the long term Brexit doesn't really make a big difference one way or the other).
    Right, so you want the government to borrow 6bn quid and give it away to big companies using a "very loose set of rules". How does "fuck off" sound?
    +1

    The hardcore Brexiteers really are a shower: the 'values' they vaunted during the campaign have not lasted long. It's almost as if they were lying ...

    Let's put it this way: the idea that borrowing billions to bribe big businesses will not play well with the public, especially when a Brexit Bonus has been promised from EU savings to the NHS.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited August 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:



    The government could do a lot to ease business jitters over Brexit by announcing a huge matched investment fund for brexit preparation and have a very loose set of rules as to what counts. It may look like a gigantic bung to big business (because it would be) but it would have the effect of getting big business to commit to the UK for the medium term and making it work in some manner.

    Where's the money coming from for this corporate welfare?
    The government is working from the OBR borrowing projection of £37bn this year, actual borrowing is set to come in at closer to £25bn this year. Even if half of that was banked and the rest spent on bribing the big companies to stay it would unleash a huge amount of investment and make them commit for the medium term (which is all we need, in the long term Brexit doesn't really make a big difference one way or the other).
    Right, so you want the government to borrow 6bn quid and give it away to big companies using a "very loose set of rules". How does "fuck off" sound?
    Yeah, we don't want them borrowing Corbyn's policies (even 2% of Corbyn's policies). Their own are bad enough.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:



    The government could do a lot to ease business jitters over Brexit by announcing a huge matched investment fund for brexit preparation and have a very loose set of rules as to what counts. It may look like a gigantic bung to big business (because it would be) but it would have the effect of getting big business to commit to the UK for the medium term and making it work in some manner.

    Where's the money coming from for this corporate welfare?
    The government is working from the OBR borrowing projection of £37bn this year, actual borrowing is set to come in at closer to £25bn this year. Even if half of that was banked and the rest spent on bribing the big companies to stay it would unleash a huge amount of investment and make them commit for the medium term (which is all we need, in the long term Brexit doesn't really make a big difference one way or the other).
    Right, so you want the government to borrow 6bn quid and give it away to big companies using a "very loose set of rules". How does "fuck off" sound?
    It's not extra borrowing if its already baked into the figures, in fact there would still be an undershoot of £6bn so borrowing would still fall faster than expected. I didn't say give it away, I said use it for a matched investment scheme, the companies would still need to invest, just make the rules fairly loose as to what they can and can't invest on. Companies spend £6bn and they get that matched by the government for another £6bn meaning a total of £12bn is invested in whatever contrived brexit related reason they can come up with.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited August 2018
    Morning all. I see the Brexit wars part MMMCXVIII are in full swing. I just want to see what Vanilla have done to my avatar.

    I shall leave both plucky, patriotic Leavers and filthy quisling Remainers to it for today, we're raising an awning on the verandah before the daystar returns in full force and turns us all into withered husks.

    *edit* Eww on the avatar front.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Clearly, the nation will benefit from cultural enrichment. The most sensible use of public money would be giving a bung investing wisely in a new artistic endeavours fund, particularly aiding those who write fantasy [who may also find secondary employment working on manifestos at the next election].

    Were you involved with the creation of this fanasty piece at the last election? Just asking :wink:

    https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto
    Weird, that page is just a picture of a tumbleweed?
    88 pages of complete waffle mixed in with a few pages of complete poison.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    MaxPB said:



    It's not extra borrowing if its already baked into the figures, in fact there would still be an undershoot of £6bn so borrowing would still fall faster than expected. I didn't say give it away, I said use it for a matched investment scheme, the companies would still need to invest, just make the rules fairly loose as to what they can and can't invest on. Companies spend £6bn and they get that matched by the government for another £6bn meaning a total of £12bn is invested in whatever contrived brexit related reason they can come up with.

    The rules have already moved from "very loose" to "fairly loose". Keep going with this rubbish until they are "stringent".
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:



    It's not extra borrowing if its already baked into the figures, in fact there would still be an undershoot of £6bn so borrowing would still fall faster than expected. I didn't say give it away, I said use it for a matched investment scheme, the companies would still need to invest, just make the rules fairly loose as to what they can and can't invest on. Companies spend £6bn and they get that matched by the government for another £6bn meaning a total of £12bn is invested in whatever contrived brexit related reason they can come up with.

    The rules have already moved from "very loose" to "fairly loose". Keep going with this rubbish until they are "stringent".
    Very, fairly, whatever. Just have the fund there so companies can invest in whatever they want and not break the rules.

    If it helps to keep the big companies in the country for the next few years when it is going to be turbulent then it's money well spent. Some of your remainer allies can see that, it's a shame you can't.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    MaxPB said:

    Solid construction figures this AM following reasonable manufacturing figures yesterday. Hopefully tomorrow's services figures will continue the trend. I'm confident now in predicting 0.5% GDP growth for Q3. The only downside risk is a possible slowdown in Europe(!). Whatever effect Brexit is or isn't having on the current timeline is very difficult to see. I think it will become more prominent in Q4 with investment decisions being put off until after Brexit day since companies will wait until the smoke clears to see when and where to invest.

    The government could do a lot to ease business jitters over Brexit by announcing a huge matched investment fund for brexit preparation and have a very loose set of rules as to what counts. It may look like a gigantic bung to big business (because it would be) but it would have the effect of getting big business to commit to the UK for the medium term and making it work in some manner.

    Have we had a Q2 GDP prediction yet (I seem to have missed it)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    MaxPB said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:



    It's not extra borrowing if its already baked into the figures, in fact there would still be an undershoot of £6bn so borrowing would still fall faster than expected. I didn't say give it away, I said use it for a matched investment scheme, the companies would still need to invest, just make the rules fairly loose as to what they can and can't invest on. Companies spend £6bn and they get that matched by the government for another £6bn meaning a total of £12bn is invested in whatever contrived brexit related reason they can come up with.

    The rules have already moved from "very loose" to "fairly loose". Keep going with this rubbish until they are "stringent".
    Very, fairly, whatever. Just have the fund there so companies can invest in whatever they want and not break the rules.

    If it helps to keep the big companies in the country for the next few years when it is going to be turbulent then it's money well spent. Some of your remainer allies can see that, it's a shame you can't.
    Can you tell me where such spending was proposed by Brexiteers before the Brexit vote?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Solid construction figures this AM following reasonable manufacturing figures yesterday. Hopefully tomorrow's services figures will continue the trend. I'm confident now in predicting 0.5% GDP growth for Q3. The only downside risk is a possible slowdown in Europe(!). Whatever effect Brexit is or isn't having on the current timeline is very difficult to see. I think it will become more prominent in Q4 with investment decisions being put off until after Brexit day since companies will wait until the smoke clears to see when and where to invest.

    The government could do a lot to ease business jitters over Brexit by announcing a huge matched investment fund for brexit preparation and have a very loose set of rules as to what counts. It may look like a gigantic bung to big business (because it would be) but it would have the effect of getting big business to commit to the UK for the medium term and making it work in some manner.

    Have we had a Q2 GDP prediction yet (I seem to have missed it)
    ONS figures aren't out until the 10th.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Solid construction figures this AM following reasonable manufacturing figures yesterday. Hopefully tomorrow's services figures will continue the trend. I'm confident now in predicting 0.5% GDP growth for Q3. The only downside risk is a possible slowdown in Europe(!). Whatever effect Brexit is or isn't having on the current timeline is very difficult to see. I think it will become more prominent in Q4 with investment decisions being put off until after Brexit day since companies will wait until the smoke clears to see when and where to invest.

    The government could do a lot to ease business jitters over Brexit by announcing a huge matched investment fund for brexit preparation and have a very loose set of rules as to what counts. It may look like a gigantic bung to big business (because it would be) but it would have the effect of getting big business to commit to the UK for the medium term and making it work in some manner.

    Have we had a Q2 GDP prediction yet (I seem to have missed it)
    I have it as 0.4%, I think the ONS will say 0.3% and revise upwards after a month or two. Even the Q1 figure will eventually end up at 0.3% and the major slowdown that was reported at the time will end up being a small blip.

    My FY prediction is 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5% and 0.4-0.6% for a total of 1.6-1.8%, barely any slowdown on last year (or the year before) and pretty much in the middle of the pack internationally.

    As I said, the major downside risk is a slowdown or recession in Europe, what looked like a Q1 blip has spilled over fairly badly into Q2 and the EU economy is much more susceptible to a trade related slowdown than the UK.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Take off your rose tinted glasses.

    The Today programme has always been drivel. They pretty much invented the BBC "balance fallacy" where you take a sane person and a mad person, make them argue, and then imply the Objective Truth is halfway in between.

    It was nonsense then and it's nonsense now.

    And do not get me fucking STARTED on Thought For The Day.

    Actually, I think you'd be rather good at it.
    :smile:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Oh dear. I don't know what's worse, the crisis or the BBC making such a basic mistake:*

    President Mnangagwa said the government was in talks with Mr Chamisa to diffuse the crisis and "we must maintain this dialogue in order to protect the peace we hold dear".
    Zimbabwe election: International calls for restraint
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-45040594

    *In case anyone is confused, that is intended as sarcasm.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Pointer, no, but I did put together some silly Politicians & Punters (think D&D) 'cards' a few years ago. I'd post one but I think they require an image URL...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    Mr. Rata, a nice parallel for Schrödinger's Remainer: simultaneously claiming the EU doesn't have too much power whilst claiming we'll run out of insulin and be unable to have sandwiches if we leave the EU.

    Either that or there are some fringe fellows on both sides and a far larger number of quieter people closer to the middle.

    That's way below your usual standard of analysis Morris. If we run out of insulin that will be entirely down to the UK's choices, nothing to do with EU power.
    Haven't we shown the insulin scare to be a load of bollocks, given we have four plants that produce it?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:



    It's not extra borrowing if its already baked into the figures, in fact there would still be an undershoot of £6bn so borrowing would still fall faster than expected. I didn't say give it away, I said use it for a matched investment scheme, the companies would still need to invest, just make the rules fairly loose as to what they can and can't invest on. Companies spend £6bn and they get that matched by the government for another £6bn meaning a total of £12bn is invested in whatever contrived brexit related reason they can come up with.

    The rules have already moved from "very loose" to "fairly loose". Keep going with this rubbish until they are "stringent".
    Very, fairly, whatever. Just have the fund there so companies can invest in whatever they want and not break the rules.

    If it helps to keep the big companies in the country for the next few years when it is going to be turbulent then it's money well spent. Some of your remainer allies can see that, it's a shame you can't.
    Can you tell me where such spending was proposed by Brexiteers before the Brexit vote?
    Well there was a plan to lower corporation tax to 15%, that would be a permanent reduction of £8bn per year that business would pay in tax. I think this is a better targeted solution, don't you?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Thanks John_M and Max. :)

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    edited August 2018
    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Solid construction figures this AM following reasonable manufacturing figures yesterday. Hopefully tomorrow's services figures will continue the trend. I'm confident now in predicting 0.5% GDP growth for Q3. The only downside risk is a possible slowdown in Europe(!). Whatever effect Brexit is or isn't having on the current timeline is very difficult to see. I think it will become more prominent in Q4 with investment decisions being put off until after Brexit day since companies will wait until the smoke clears to see when and where to invest.

    The government could do a lot to ease business jitters over Brexit by announcing a huge matched investment fund for brexit preparation and have a very loose set of rules as to what counts. It may look like a gigantic bung to big business (because it would be) but it would have the effect of getting big business to commit to the UK for the medium term and making it work in some manner.

    Have we had a Q2 GDP prediction yet (I seem to have missed it)
    I have it as 0.4%, I think the ONS will say 0.3% and revise upwards after a month or two. Even the Q1 figure will eventually end up at 0.3% and the major slowdown that was reported at the time will end up being a small blip.

    My FY prediction is 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5% and 0.4-0.6% for a total of 1.6-1.8%, barely any slowdown on last year (or the year before) and pretty much in the middle of the pack internationally.

    As I said, the major downside risk is a slowdown or recession in Europe, what looked like a Q1 blip has spilled over fairly badly into Q2 and the EU economy is much more susceptible to a trade related slowdown than the UK.
    My guess would be 0.5 - 0.7% for Q2.

    I think we can agree that the much-touted "recession" in the Construction industry was so much horsehit, as several of us predicted.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Haven't we shown the insulin scare to be a load of bollocks, given we have four plants that produce it?

    Mr Rawlins said that we “make no insulin in the UK.” Strictly speaking, that’s not quite true.

    There is one company – Wockhardt UK – that produces animal-based insulin at its site in Wrexham. They estimate that their products are used by about 1,500 to 2,000 patients a year.

    But that’s less than half of one percent of the 421,000 people who rely on insulin in the UK (according to an estimate from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in 2010).

    So where does everyone else get theirs from? We spoke to the UK’s other leading suppliers of insulin – Sanofi, Novo Nordisk and Lilly.

    Sanofi told us that the company “does not manufacture insulin in the UK. All of our insulins are manufactured in Frankfurt.” Novo Nordisk told us that its insulin is made in Denmark and France. Lilly told us that they don’t make insulin in the UK either.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:



    It's not extra borrowing if its already baked into the figures, in fact there would still be an undershoot of £6bn so borrowing would still fall faster than expected. I didn't say give it away, I said use it for a matched investment scheme, the companies would still need to invest, just make the rules fairly loose as to what they can and can't invest on. Companies spend £6bn and they get that matched by the government for another £6bn meaning a total of £12bn is invested in whatever contrived brexit related reason they can come up with.

    The rules have already moved from "very loose" to "fairly loose". Keep going with this rubbish until they are "stringent".
    Very, fairly, whatever. Just have the fund there so companies can invest in whatever they want and not break the rules.

    If it helps to keep the big companies in the country for the next few years when it is going to be turbulent then it's money well spent. Some of your remainer allies can see that, it's a shame you can't.
    Can you tell me where such spending was proposed by Brexiteers before the Brexit vote?
    Well there was a plan to lower corporation tax to 15%, that would be a permanent reduction of £8bn per year that business would pay in tax. I think this is a better targeted solution, don't you?
    No. Your scheme sounds like just a money bung to 'big business', whilst AIUI a corporation tax cut would help all companies, big and small. I'm unsure I even agree with cutting that.

    Your proposal will stink to high heaven, and be impossible to sell to a public promised there would be a bonus to the public purse after Brexit, not - as it will be sold - "fat cats getting fatter".

    Besides, wasn't that a plan by May, and not a pre-referendum pledge by Brexiteers, which was what I asked?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    So, does anyone thinks rates aren’t going up today?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Mortimer, I'm mildly surprised there's so much talk of rates rising.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Mr. Rata, a nice parallel for Schrödinger's Remainer: simultaneously claiming the EU doesn't have too much power whilst claiming we'll run out of insulin and be unable to have sandwiches if we leave the EU.

    Either that or there are some fringe fellows on both sides and a far larger number of quieter people closer to the middle.

    That's way below your usual standard of analysis Morris. If we run out of insulin that will be entirely down to the UK's choices, nothing to do with EU power.
    Pharmaceutical companies are in any event taking matters into their own hands and increasing UK stockpiles. Should give a 4-6 month breathing space to deal with any stupidities that result from a no deal Brexit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Clearly, the nation will benefit from cultural enrichment. The most sensible use of public money would be giving a bung investing wisely in a new artistic endeavours fund, particularly aiding those who write fantasy [who may also find secondary employment working on manifestos at the next election].

    Were you involved with the creation of this fanasty piece at the last election? Just asking :wink:

    https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto
    I don't think dystopian fantasy is MD's genre.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Scott_P said:

    Haven't we shown the insulin scare to be a load of bollocks, given we have four plants that produce it?

    Mr Rawlins said that we “make no insulin in the UK.” Strictly speaking, that’s not quite true.

    There is one company – Wockhardt UK – that produces animal-based insulin at its site in Wrexham. They estimate that their products are used by about 1,500 to 2,000 patients a year.

    But that’s less than half of one percent of the 421,000 people who rely on insulin in the UK (according to an estimate from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in 2010).

    So where does everyone else get theirs from? We spoke to the UK’s other leading suppliers of insulin – Sanofi, Novo Nordisk and Lilly.

    Sanofi told us that the company “does not manufacture insulin in the UK. All of our insulins are manufactured in Frankfurt.” Novo Nordisk told us that its insulin is made in Denmark and France. Lilly told us that they don’t make insulin in the UK either.
    If you are going to selectively quote Channel 4's factcheck, you might have added:

    "But what does the industry say now?

    A spokesperson for HDA UK told FactCheck today that: “we are aware of proposals by the government and manufacturers to develop plans for stockpiling medicines of all types as a ‘buffer stock’ in the event of a ‘no deal Brexit’.”

    He added: “The UK medicines supply chain has an inbuilt resilience and flexibility, which is now being supported by the plans for a ‘buffer stock’”, which he described as “sensible planning”.

    It’s a similar story from the individual suppliers of insulin. Novo Nordisk – which produces its insulin in Denmark and France – told FactCheck that the company is “is in the process of planning for future contingencies however, at present, we do not anticipate stock shortages.”
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited August 2018
    Mortimer said:

    So, does anyone thinks rates aren’t going up today?

    Seems odd to be raising interest rates when we're supposedly on the Brexit cliff edge?

    Something doesn't add up...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    So, does anyone thinks rates aren’t going up today?

    Seems odd to be raising interest rates when we're supposedly on the Brexit cliff edge?

    Something doesn't add up...
    They're economists. Of course they can't add up! :wink:
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:



    It's not extra borrowing if its already baked into the figures, in fact there would still be an undershoot of £6bn so borrowing would still fall faster than expected. I didn't say give it away, I said use it for a matched investment scheme, the companies would still need to invest, just make the rules fairly loose as to what they can and can't invest on. Companies spend £6bn and they get that matched by the government for another £6bn meaning a total of £12bn is invested in whatever contrived brexit related reason they can come up with.

    The rules have already moved from "very loose" to "fairly loose". Keep going with this rubbish until they are "stringent".
    Very, fairly, whatever. Just have the fund there so companies can invest in whatever they want and not break the rules.

    If it helps to keep the big companies in the country for the next few years when it is going to be turbulent then it's money well spent. Some of your remainer allies can see that, it's a shame you can't.
    Can you tell me where such spending was proposed by Brexiteers before the Brexit vote?
    Well there was a plan to lower corporation tax to 15%, that would be a permanent reduction of £8bn per year that business would pay in tax. I think this is a better targeted solution, don't you?
    No. Your scheme sounds like just a money bung to 'big business', whilst AIUI a corporation tax cut would help all companies, big and small. I'm unsure I even agree with cutting that.

    Your proposal will stink to high heaven, and be impossible to sell to a public promised there would be a bonus to the public purse after Brexit, not - as it will be sold - "fat cats getting fatter".

    Besides, wasn't that a plan by May, and not a pre-referendum pledge by Brexiteers, which was what I asked?
    It was a brexit plan, I think endorsed by leavers and remainers alike, even Hammond seemed to be seriously considering it at one point.

    I also think you are missing the point, any fund would be for matched investment. If a company spends plans a £200m investment, they propose it to the government and they get a £100m credit for it once it is complete. The company is still spending money it wouldn't otherwise have spent. Tbh, I doubt the public would even realise the fund existed as it would be all of three lines in the budget.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    MaxPB said:


    It was a brexit plan, I think endorsed by leavers and remainers alike, even Hammond seemed to be seriously considering it at one point.

    I also think you are missing the point, any fund would be for matched investment. If a company spends plans a £200m investment, they propose it to the government and they get a £100m credit for it once it is complete. The company is still spending money it wouldn't otherwise have spent. Tbh, I doubt the public would even realise the fund existed as it would be all of three lines in the budget.

    Where will the votes in Parliament for this massive dose of sweet corporate socialism come from?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:


    It was a brexit plan, I think endorsed by leavers and remainers alike, even Hammond seemed to be seriously considering it at one point.

    I also think you are missing the point, any fund would be for matched investment. If a company spends plans a £200m investment, they propose it to the government and they get a £100m credit for it once it is complete. The company is still spending money it wouldn't otherwise have spent. Tbh, I doubt the public would even realise the fund existed as it would be all of three lines in the budget.

    Where will the votes in Parliament for this massive dose of sweet corporate socialism come from?
    Do you really think that the "hard brexit investment fund" would get voted down by the ERGers? Or that the 4 hardcore remainers would bring down the government by voting down a finance bill?

    Tbh, big business bungs is in the nature of our party, I don't think it would be anywhere near as controversial as some are making out.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Also, anyone who seriously believes for just one second the EU is going to allow us to build an offshore tax haven on their doorstep as an act of pettiness is being *inexcusably* silly.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    MaxPB said:


    Do you really think that the "hard brexit investment fund" would get voted down by the ERGers? Or that the 4 hardcore remainers would bring down the government by voting down a finance bill?

    Tbh, big business bungs is in the nature of our party, I don't think it would be anywhere near as controversial as some are making out.

    Is this a JRM who sounds ready to embrace a bit of good old 70s socialism?

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/981478/Brexit-news-UK-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-Theresa-May-tax-Andrew-Neil-BBC
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. B, it's true, it isn't.

    The main mistake I made with the Bloody Crown trilogy was making the potential leaders too competent. In an era of Trump, May, and Corbyn, I think people will suspend disbelief for magic, but capable and intelligent leadership just looks too unrealistic.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Also, anyone who seriously believes for just one second the EU is going to allow us to build an offshore tax haven on their doorstep as an act of pettiness is being *inexcusably* silly.

    Indeed, but that's not what I am saying we should do. I do think, if we are backed into a corner, we will end up deregulating the City and see a lot of new prime brokerages that clear their own trades with tacit support from the Bank. That does look like a likely endgame scenario which I think the EU is aware of which is why they are climbing down a bit.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    MaxPB said:

    It was a brexit plan, I think endorsed by leavers and remainers alike, even Hammond seemed to be seriously considering it at one point.

    I also think you are missing the point, any fund would be for matched investment. If a company spends plans a £200m investment, they propose it to the government and they get a £100m credit for it once it is complete. The company is still spending money it wouldn't otherwise have spent. Tbh, I doubt the public would even realise the fund existed as it would be all of three lines in the budget.

    I can't recall that (*) - I'd love to see a contemporaneous link.

    I understand your point, but it's still a massive bung to big business. And the public would know about the fund the moment the papers and opposition tell them - the headlines are easy to imagine. There will also be endless arguments over whether the matched investment was really matched - and large companies will always try to do what advantages them when it comes to accounting.

    And the small companies that did not qualify still get hit with the current rate, and will be squealing.

    (*) Then again, I was out of it a little around that time.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    edited August 2018
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Solid construction figures this AM following reasonable manufacturing figures yesterday. Hopefully tomorrow's services figures will continue the trend. I'm confident now in predicting 0.5% GDP growth for Q3. The only downside risk is a possible slowdown in Europe(!). Whatever effect Brexit is or isn't having on the current timeline is very difficult to see. I think it will become more prominent in Q4 with investment decisions being put off until after Brexit day since companies will wait until the smoke clears to see when and where to invest.

    The government could do a lot to ease business jitters over Brexit by announcing a huge matched investment fund for brexit preparation and have a very loose set of rules as to what counts. It may look like a gigantic bung to big business (because it would be) but it would have the effect of getting big business to commit to the UK for the medium term and making it work in some manner.

    Have we had a Q2 GDP prediction yet (I seem to have missed it)
    I have it as 0.4%, I think the ONS will say 0.3% and revise upwards after a month or two. Even the Q1 figure will eventually end up at 0.3% and the major slowdown that was reported at the time will end up being a small blip.

    My FY prediction is 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5% and 0.4-0.6% for a total of 1.6-1.8%, barely any slowdown on last year (or the year before) and pretty much in the middle of the pack internationally.

    As I said, the major downside risk is a slowdown or recession in Europe, what looked like a Q1 blip has spilled over fairly badly into Q2 and the EU economy is much more susceptible to a trade related slowdown than the UK.
    My guess would be 0.5 - 0.7% for Q2.

    I think we can agree that the much-touted "recession" in the Construction industry was so much horsehit, as several of us predicted.
    As I keep saying I don't know how the lot at the ONS keep their jobs, their estimates are complete nonsense.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited August 2018

    Also, anyone who seriously believes for just one second the EU is going to allow us to build an offshore tax haven on their doorstep as an act of pettiness is being *inexcusably* silly.

    Well, if we crash out with no deal they can't actually do anything to stop us. That's one reason why I think Barnier is beyond mad to be taking matters to this level of brinksmanship.

    I don't think it would be a wise choice for us as a country, but that's not really a consideration at the moment given the state of politics.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    So, does anyone thinks rates aren’t going up today?

    Seems odd to be raising interest rates when we're supposedly on the Brexit cliff edge?

    Something doesn't add up...
    They're economists. Of course they can't add up! :wink:
    Of course they can - providing you allow for a range of answers to the sum.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    currystar said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Solid construction figures this AM following reasonable manufacturing figures yesterday. Hopefully tomorrow's services figures will continue the trend. I'm confident now in predicting 0.5% GDP growth for Q3. The only downside risk is a possible slowdown in Europe(!). Whatever effect Brexit is or isn't having on the current timeline is very difficult to see. I think it will become more prominent in Q4 with investment decisions being put off until after Brexit day since companies will wait until the smoke clears to see when and where to invest.

    The government could do a lot to ease business jitters over Brexit by announcing a huge matched investment fund for brexit preparation and have a very loose set of rules as to what counts. It may look like a gigantic bung to big business (because it would be) but it would have the effect of getting big business to commit to the UK for the medium term and making it work in some manner.

    Have we had a Q2 GDP prediction yet (I seem to have missed it)
    I have it as 0.4%, I think the ONS will say 0.3% and revise upwards after a month or two. Even the Q1 figure will eventually end up at 0.3% and the major slowdown that was reported at the time will end up being a small blip.

    My FY prediction is 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5% and 0.4-0.6% for a total of 1.6-1.8%, barely any slowdown on last year (or the year before) and pretty much in the middle of the pack internationally.

    As I said, the major downside risk is a slowdown or recession in Europe, what looked like a Q1 blip has spilled over fairly badly into Q2 and the EU economy is much more susceptible to a trade related slowdown than the UK.
    My guess would be 0.5 - 0.7% for Q2.

    I think we can agree that the much-touted "recession" in the Construction industry was so much horsehit, as several of us predicted.
    As I keep saying I don't know how the lot at the ONS keep their jobs, their estimates are complete nonsense.
    A doctor was leading a medical student on rounds at the hospital. The student was very cocky, but not very good. He repeatedly misdiagnosed his patients, telling one person with an abscess that she had a cancer, and another who really did have cancer that it was probably a pulled muscle.

    Eventually the doctor got fed up with this, and pulled the student to one side. 'You're arrogant, rude, and totally incompetent. Everything you've said is wrong and you've caused both totally unnecessary panic and given false hope to someone who has no chance. You're a rotten doctor and unfit to practise medicine.'

    'You should retrain as a government economist and statistician.'
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:


    Do you really think that the "hard brexit investment fund" would get voted down by the ERGers? Or that the 4 hardcore remainers would bring down the government by voting down a finance bill?

    Tbh, big business bungs is in the nature of our party, I don't think it would be anywhere near as controversial as some are making out.

    Is this a JRM who sounds ready to embrace a bit of good old 70s socialism?

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/981478/Brexit-news-UK-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-Theresa-May-tax-Andrew-Neil-BBC
    Helping out our big business allies wouldn't be socialism, I think it would come under the corporatist banner. That's not a new development for the Tory party, though.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    For the first time in my working life, interest rates are above 0.5%.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    tlg86 said:

    For the first time in my working life, interest rates are above 0.5%.

    Same here!
This discussion has been closed.