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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The limits of populism. Will the hard right disappoint its fan

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited August 3 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The limits of populism. Will the hard right disappoint its fans’ most ardent hopes again in Sweden?

SD have been top in 5/50 polls in 2018, all conducted by YouGov and Sentio. https://t.co/WnRB9dk9Vg

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,752
    First. From a seawall in Wisbech.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,355
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Jessop, whereabouts is that?

    On topic: good article, Mr. Meeks. I'm not inclined to bet on this (think I lost out on Le Pen). However, I would add that, whilst not quite the same, Five Star and the Northern League (or whatever it's called) in Italy did live up to the pre-election hype.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,492
    edited August 3
    Morning. Third, like Boris.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,939
    Not a bad tip but one i’m not inclined to follow through on as I’m not seeing the value here that Alastair does, and I also don’t know enough about the mood in Sweden.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,427
    Hmm... am a little wary of betting on things that I want to be true.
    That said I think Alistair is on to something here, if you're the favourite in the odds, it seems strange that you are trailing on average in the polls and could even plausibly come third.

    [Minor point - it's ahead in 5 polls and tied in a sixth on wikipedia].
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,492
    FPT: People seem still to be talking about May v Corbyn in terms of who can and who cannot increase their vote from 2017. Yet 2017 is probably close to peak vote for both of them; the right question is which of them is more likely to lose votes to other parties.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,852

    Not a bad tip but one i’m not inclined to follow through on as I’m not seeing the value here that Alastair does, and I also don’t know enough about the mood in Sweden.

    I also don't know much about Sweden.

    But I think there are things that need to be taken out of, for example, the Dutch election. I believe that a lot of the traditional parties were too quiet for too long on the difficulties of integrating migrants - particular those from countries very unlike Sweden or the Netherlands. The voters, by and large, wanted to be listed to on this issue. But they weren't that keen on Geert Wilders as actual Prime Minister. That liked what he said, but they didn't actual want him in charge,

    As the traditional parties began to recognise voters' concerns, they left the PVV or the FN for other parties.

    Now there is an exception to this: Italy. But Italy - unlike Sweden or the Netherlands - had another kicker, economic stagnation.

    So, if the traditional Swedish parties address the concerns of voters about mass immigration from non-European countries, then I suspect the Swedish Democrats will probably fall back. If they do not, then it's hard to know.

    At 1.83, I suspect Alistair's lay is a good bet. But I wouldn't bet my - or anyone else's - house on it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,488
    It does look an interesting election, and I do like the literalness of Sweden. I would like to vote for the Moderate Party too!

    Isn't it better value to bet on the Social Democrats at 2.3 than Lay the Sweden Democrats at 1.89?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,427
    Interest rates up to 0.75%... an interesting choice before Brexit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 11,520
    rkrkrk said:

    Interest rates up to 0.75%... an interesting choice before Brexit.

    If they go up, that leaves wiggle room in case they need to come down again to stave off a slump.

    We might see further rate rises before March.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,164
    IanB2 said:

    FPT: People seem still to be talking about May v Corbyn in terms of who can and who cannot increase their vote from 2017. Yet 2017 is probably close to peak vote for both of them; the right question is which of them is more likely to lose votes to other parties.

    Agreed. We are much more likely in the short term to see polling increases for the LDs and UKIP, as the Brexit reality unfolds.

    I do wonder what it will take for a Labour split though, if the #JC9 get elected and the various motions at Conference pass, the party will have been completely taken over by the hard left bar most of the MPs. I wonder at what point one of the larger unions moves to support SDP2?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,488
    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Interest rates up to 0.75%... an interesting choice before Brexit.

    If they go up, that leaves wiggle room in case they need to come down again to stave off a slump.

    We might see further rate rises before March.
    After interest rates being so low for so long, it will be a very slow trip back to sane rates. Probably will be another step up before Brexit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 11,520
    edited August 3
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT: People seem still to be talking about May v Corbyn in terms of who can and who cannot increase their vote from 2017. Yet 2017 is probably close to peak vote for both of them; the right question is which of them is more likely to lose votes to other parties.

    Agreed. We are much more likely in the short term to see polling increases for the LDs and UKIP, as the Brexit reality unfolds.

    I do wonder what it will take for a Labour split though, if the #JC9 get elected and the various motions at Conference pass, the party will have been completely taken over by the hard left bar most of the MPs. I wonder at what point one of the larger unions moves to support SDP2?
    The largest unions are led by Serwotka and McCluskey. They make Corbyn look like Margaret Thatcher.

    Edit - actually in a careful check Serwotka's union is smaller than I thought and the largest unions are led by McCluskey, Dave Prentis and Tim Roache (in that order).

    The point stands.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,760
    Yes, good spot - I've been following it closely and also noticed the marked discrepancy between YouGov and Sentio on the one hand and everyone else on the other:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2018

    I think that there may be an element of people betting with their hearts, as there are quite a lot of people who would like the nationalist right to do well, especially in Sweden (hello SeanT). But betting on the social democrats to come first does look slightly better value than laying the SDs, since they have never had a poll since the last election where they weren't ahead of the non-SD competitors. Another punt worth a look is on the Christian Democrats not making it over the % threshold to get in - nearly all the polling says they'll fall short, but laying them is only 2.36.

    I wouldn't bet the house on any of these as we've got the campaign to come, but they look worth a flutter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,164
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Interest rates up to 0.75%... an interesting choice before Brexit.

    If they go up, that leaves wiggle room in case they need to come down again to stave off a slump.

    We might see further rate rises before March.
    After interest rates being so low for so long, it will be a very slow trip back to sane rates. Probably will be another step up before Brexit.
    Indeed so. With the budget deficit now mostly under control it’s the next logical step, if only to give the government some levers to pull when the next recession comes along. It’s also very necessary in order to move the housing market back somewhere towards sanity.

    A lot of people don’t realise that nine years of interest rates at or below 0,5% is completely unprecedented, and is causing huge distortions in the economy.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,355
    Mr. rkrkrk, it'd also be interesting, and useful, to know how accurate the polls usually are in Sweden. British polls can be next to worthless, and French polls seem very accurate.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,760
    edited August 3
    Incidentally, I've also mopped up the lays at 3.6 on May leaving this year. Having lasted this long it's barely conceivable that she'll chuck in the towel in the middle of the final round of negotiations. In the same way, Trump to leave this year looks an excellent lay even at 13.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,492
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Interest rates up to 0.75%... an interesting choice before Brexit.

    If they go up, that leaves wiggle room in case they need to come down again to stave off a slump.

    We might see further rate rises before March.
    After interest rates being so low for so long, it will be a very slow trip back to sane rates. Probably will be another step up before Brexit.
    More likely at the first sign of panic they'll drop to the floor.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,164
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT: People seem still to be talking about May v Corbyn in terms of who can and who cannot increase their vote from 2017. Yet 2017 is probably close to peak vote for both of them; the right question is which of them is more likely to lose votes to other parties.

    Agreed. We are much more likely in the short term to see polling increases for the LDs and UKIP, as the Brexit reality unfolds.

    I do wonder what it will take for a Labour split though, if the #JC9 get elected and the various motions at Conference pass, the party will have been completely taken over by the hard left bar most of the MPs. I wonder at what point one of the larger unions moves to support SDP2?
    The largest unions are led by Serwotka and McCluskey. They make Corbyn look like Margaret Thatcher.

    Edit - actually in a careful check Serwotka's union is smaller than I thought and the largest unions are led by McCluskey, Dave Prentis and Tim Roache (in that order).

    The point stands.
    So if not one of the larger unions then who will stand behind a new party? Because it’s not going to happen until they have some serious financial support in place. If 130 MPs join a new party then there will be a pile of Short money as the Opposition, but not enough to run a full GE campaign.

    More importantly, what would be the values of the new party. To most people who have talked about it, their USP is to be virulently anti-Brexit, but before the next scheduled election that’s going to be a moot point, and a rejoin campaign will have much less support than a Remain campaign does now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,488

    Mr. rkrkrk, it'd also be interesting, and useful, to know how accurate the polls usually are in Sweden. British polls can be next to worthless, and French polls seem very accurate.

    I wouldn't say British polls were next to worthless. Allowing for MoE, they picked up the referendum as a coin toss, and the Corbyn surge during the 2017 campaign. There does need to be a degree of interpretation.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,683
    Foxy said:

    It does look an interesting election, and I do like the literalness of Sweden. I would like to vote for the Moderate Party too!
    ....

    In the TV series Borgen, didn’t the ex PM form a new centre party called something along the lines of New Centre Party ?
    Something we could perhaps do with...

    Interesting Atlantic article suggests that the determination to hold down the populist right will stop Macron accommodating anything to do with May’s compromise:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/macrons-plan-to-stop-the-brexit-contagion-from-spreading/566702/
    ...British officials have failed to grasp that Macron views the EU’s redlines against Brexit as a necessary warning to anyone else wishing to break up the bloc—as a means of dissuading anyone at home from thinking Frexit is even a remote possibility. For Macron, being tough on Brexit is being tough on Le Pen.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 11,520

    Incidentally, I've also mopped up the lays at 3.6 on May leaving this year. Having lasted this long it's barely conceivable that she'll chuck in the towel in the middle of the final round of negotiations. In the same way, Trump to leave this year looks an excellent lay even at 13.

    For the same reason, unless something really dramatic happens I can't see a VoNC in May before next year. If she won it, she's safe for a year, and she would while negotiations are going on. However, if her enemies are patient I think most members of the PCP will want to remove her fairly swiftly after that and a VoNC becomes feasible.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,760
    edited August 3

    Mr. rkrkrk, it'd also be interesting, and useful, to know how accurate the polls usually are in Sweden. British polls can be next to worthless, and French polls seem very accurate.

    The Swedish polls tend to be very accurate, though the discrepancy between institutes noted above is a worry.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,852

    Incidentally, I've also mopped up the lays at 3.6 on May leaving this year. Having lasted this long it's barely conceivable that she'll chuck in the towel in the middle of the final round of negotiations. In the same way, Trump to leave this year looks an excellent lay even at 13.

    Short of death or serious illness, I don't see how Trump could possibly leave this year. The correct number is surely around 40-50, and maybe higher.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,492

    Incidentally, I've also mopped up the lays at 3.6 on May leaving this year. Having lasted this long it's barely conceivable that she'll chuck in the towel in the middle of the final round of negotiations. In the same way, Trump to leave this year looks an excellent lay even at 13.

    It was kind of you to leave the 3.4 on offer for laying Oct-Dec 2018! There is still a little left.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,339
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Interest rates up to 0.75%... an interesting choice before Brexit.

    If they go up, that leaves wiggle room in case they need to come down again to stave off a slump.

    We might see further rate rises before March.
    After interest rates being so low for so long, it will be a very slow trip back to sane rates. Probably will be another step up before Brexit.
    Indeed so. With the budget deficit now mostly under control it’s the next logical step, if only to give the government some levers to pull when the next recession comes along. It’s also very necessary in order to move the housing market back somewhere towards sanity.

    A lot of people don’t realise that nine years of interest rates at or below 0,5% is completely unprecedented, and is causing huge distortions in the economy.
    There was an interesting snippet on R4 yesterday just before 9 with a former member of the MPC. He was explaining that historically interest rate changes were normally driven by macro considerations such as inflation, unemployment, growth etc but that the MPC were increasingly concerned about the micro aspects and that a lot of work had been getting done on the adverse consequences of super low interest rates.

    Not a lot of detail unfortunately but I think we can see the distortions (esp problems with pension funding, asset inflation, a huge bung to the "haves" at the cost of the aspirational have nots, the desire for "alternative" investments in search of yield and the survival of zombie companies that really should have gone a long time ago freeing up resources for more productive purposes) all around us.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,355
    Mr. Palmer, cheers for that info.

    Dr. Foxy, I didn't say 'were', I said 'can be'. I know that's finickity but it is a distinction with a difference.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,427

    Mr. rkrkrk, it'd also be interesting, and useful, to know how accurate the polls usually are in Sweden. British polls can be next to worthless, and French polls seem very accurate.

    British polls are certainly not next to worthless.
    The problem is that people overinterpret them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,488
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT: People seem still to be talking about May v Corbyn in terms of who can and who cannot increase their vote from 2017. Yet 2017 is probably close to peak vote for both of them; the right question is which of them is more likely to lose votes to other parties.

    Agreed. We are much more likely in the short term to see polling increases for the LDs and UKIP, as the Brexit reality unfolds.

    I do wonder what it will take for a Labour split though, if the #JC9 get elected and the various motions at Conference pass, the party will have been completely taken over by the hard left bar most of the MPs. I wonder at what point one of the larger unions moves to support SDP2?
    The largest unions are led by Serwotka and McCluskey. They make Corbyn look like Margaret Thatcher.

    Edit - actually in a careful check Serwotka's union is smaller than I thought and the largest unions are led by McCluskey, Dave Prentis and Tim Roache (in that order).

    The point stands.
    So if not one of the larger unions then who will stand behind a new party? Because it’s not going to happen until they have some serious financial support in place. If 130 MPs join a new party then there will be a pile of Short money as the Opposition, but not enough to run a full GE campaign.

    More importantly, what would be the values of the new party. To most people who have talked about it, their USP is to be virulently anti-Brexit, but before the next scheduled election that’s going to be a moot point, and a rejoin campaign will have much less support than a Remain campaign does now.
    It is not going to happen unless the LDs start running about 20% in the polls, and that is not going to happen with Vince in charge. We are stuck in a polarised political system at the moment.

    More likely that the Labour Conference will back a #peoplesvote. I can see that being the real conference battle.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,488
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    It does look an interesting election, and I do like the literalness of Sweden. I would like to vote for the Moderate Party too!
    ....

    In the TV series Borgen, didn’t the ex PM form a new centre party called something along the lines of New Centre Party ?
    Something we could perhaps do with...

    Interesting Atlantic article suggests that the determination to hold down the populist right will stop Macron accommodating anything to do with May’s compromise:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/macrons-plan-to-stop-the-brexit-contagion-from-spreading/566702/
    ...British officials have failed to grasp that Macron views the EU’s redlines against Brexit as a necessary warning to anyone else wishing to break up the bloc—as a means of dissuading anyone at home from thinking Frexit is even a remote possibility. For Macron, being tough on Brexit is being tough on Le Pen.
    I think it even simpler than that. Macron is the most evangelical europhile national leader in Europe for years. His priority is not to undermine the EU negotiating position.

    Sending May on a charm offensive? What could possibly go wrong?
  • mattmatt Posts: 1,750
    edited August 3
    rkrkrk said:

    Interest rates up to 0.75%... an interesting choice before Brexit.

    25bps should be neither here or there (particularly with expectation setting for rises and the ceiling) but in some quarters is seems to be treated like the end of civilization.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,339
    On topic, and without having any feel for Sweden, it does seem that the vote is highly fragmented.

    My understanding is that the "civilised" parties will not work with them and that they will not form a part of the new government even if they are the largest party. It seems to me that this gives people something of a free hit. They can make their protest against the parties who are, in their view, mismanaging immigration amongst other issues without ending up with a quasi-fascist government, a bit like UKIP in the Euros here. I will not be betting on this but they look more like a buy than a lay to me.
  • mattmatt Posts: 1,750
    edited August 3
    DavidL said:

    On topic, and without having any feel for Sweden, it does seem that the vote is highly fragmented.

    My understanding is that the "civilised" parties will not work with them and that they will not form a part of the new government even if they are the largest party. It seems to me that this gives people something of a free hit. They can make their protest against the parties who are, in their view, mismanaging immigration amongst other issues without ending up with a quasi-fascist government, a bit like UKIP in the Euros here. I will not be betting on this but they look more like a buy than a lay to me.

    If we had a PR system of some sort do you think that politics here would be anything other than fragmented?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,760
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    It does look an interesting election, and I do like the literalness of Sweden. I would like to vote for the Moderate Party too!
    ....

    In the TV series Borgen, didn’t the ex PM form a new centre party called something along the lines of New Centre Party ?
    Something we could perhaps do with...

    Borgen is set in Denmark, where the threshold for representation (under strict d'Hondt PR rules) is a modest 2%, so almost anyone has a shot. It's 4% in Sweden and de facto about 20% in Britain...

    Growing up in Demark, I really liked the effect of the rule - it meant that you could cast a precisely nuanced vote, for example in favour of conservative economic policy combined with a pacifist foreign policy, further nuanced by the opportunity to vote for individuals on the arty lists and determine which candidates got the seats that the party won (so you could not just vote Labour but choose between e.g. Corbyn and Umunna). It does lead to post-election haggling, but the parties are expected by the voters to say whether they'll back a left- or right-of-centre government, so you get stable majorities.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,339
    edited August 3
    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic, and without having any feel for Sweden, it does seem that the vote is highly fragmented.

    My understanding is that the "civilised" parties will not work with them and that they will not form a part of the new government even if they are the largest party. It seems to me that this gives people something of a free hit. They can make their protest against the parties who are, in their view, mismanaging immigration amongst other issues without ending up with a quasi-fascist government, a bit like UKIP in the Euros here. I will not be betting on this but they look more like a buy than a lay to me.

    If we had a PR system of some sort do you think that politics here would be anything other than fragmented?
    No and it is one of the more compelling arguments for FPTP. Our main political parties recognise the importance of being broad churches (although both in their own ways are testing that to the limit at the moment) who can win 40%+ of the vote. This requires moderation and a trend towards the centre which are, in this centrist voter's opinion, a good thing.

    People argue under PR you get to vote for a party more closely aligned with your own thoughts. That's probably true but of course that more closely aligned party then has to compromise with other parties to get anywhere near a majority. On balance, I think our broad church approach usually works better.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,339
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    It does look an interesting election, and I do like the literalness of Sweden. I would like to vote for the Moderate Party too!
    ....

    In the TV series Borgen, didn’t the ex PM form a new centre party called something along the lines of New Centre Party ?
    Something we could perhaps do with...

    Interesting Atlantic article suggests that the determination to hold down the populist right will stop Macron accommodating anything to do with May’s compromise:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/macrons-plan-to-stop-the-brexit-contagion-from-spreading/566702/
    ...British officials have failed to grasp that Macron views the EU’s redlines against Brexit as a necessary warning to anyone else wishing to break up the bloc—as a means of dissuading anyone at home from thinking Frexit is even a remote possibility. For Macron, being tough on Brexit is being tough on Le Pen.
    I think it even simpler than that. Macron is the most evangelical europhile national leader in Europe for years. His priority is not to undermine the EU negotiating position.

    Sending May on a charm offensive? What could possibly go wrong?
    OTOH if he is the one who is likely to set the parameters of any compromise, he is the one to speak to.
  • mattmatt Posts: 1,750
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    It does look an interesting election, and I do like the literalness of Sweden. I would like to vote for the Moderate Party too!
    ....

    In the TV series Borgen, didn’t the ex PM form a new centre party called something along the lines of New Centre Party ?
    Something we could perhaps do with...

    Interesting Atlantic article suggests that the determination to hold down the populist right will stop Macron accommodating anything to do with May’s compromise:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/macrons-plan-to-stop-the-brexit-contagion-from-spreading/566702/
    ...British officials have failed to grasp that Macron views the EU’s redlines against Brexit as a necessary warning to anyone else wishing to break up the bloc—as a means of dissuading anyone at home from thinking Frexit is even a remote possibility. For Macron, being tough on Brexit is being tough on Le Pen.
    I think it even simpler than that. Macron is the most evangelical europhile national leader in Europe for years. His priority is not to undermine the EU negotiating position.

    Sending May on a charm offensive? What could possibly go wrong?
    OTOH if he is the one who is likely to set the parameters of any compromise, he is the one to speak to.
    Macron seems quite in favour of older women....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,164
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT: People seem still to be talking about May v Corbyn in terms of who can and who cannot increase their vote from 2017. Yet 2017 is probably close to peak vote for both of them; the right question is which of them is more likely to lose votes to other parties.

    Agreed. We are much more likely in the short term to see polling increases for the LDs and UKIP, as the Brexit reality unfolds.

    I do wonder what it will take for a Labour split though, if the #JC9 get elected and the various motions at Conference pass, the party will have been completely taken over by the hard left bar most of the MPs. I wonder at what point one of the larger unions moves to support SDP2?
    The largest unions are led by Serwotka and McCluskey. They make Corbyn look like Margaret Thatcher.

    Edit - actually in a careful check Serwotka's union is smaller than I thought and the largest unions are led by McCluskey, Dave Prentis and Tim Roache (in that order).

    The point stands.
    So if not one of the larger unions then who will stand behind a new party? Because it’s not going to happen until they have some serious financial support in place. If 130 MPs join a new party then there will be a pile of Short money as the Opposition, but not enough to run a full GE campaign.

    More importantly, what would be the values of the new party. To most people who have talked about it, their USP is to be virulently anti-Brexit, but before the next scheduled election that’s going to be a moot point, and a rejoin campaign will have much less support than a Remain campaign does now.
    It is not going to happen unless the LDs start running about 20% in the polls, and that is not going to happen with Vince in charge. We are stuck in a polarised political system at the moment.

    More likely that the Labour Conference will back a #peoplesvote. I can see that being the real conference battle.
    Yes, the LDs under Uncle Vince seem to have almost disappeared from public y need to find their voice, choose a couple of issues that no-one else is talking about and get them in the media over the summer. Pick something that Libertarian Conservatives could get behind, and something on the other side that a sensible Labour Party might propose but fully costed.

    Yes, Labour Conference is going to be fascinating to watch, in the same way as some people watch F1 hoping for a massive crash at the first corner!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,837
    Foxy said:

    Sending May on a charm offensive? What could possibly go wrong?

    He could talk her into a second referendum.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,724
    edited August 3
    From this sad story, sounds like a different Sweden is alredy here:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45050933
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,164
    matt said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Interest rates up to 0.75%... an interesting choice before Brexit.

    25bps should be neither here or there (particularly with expectation setting for rises and the ceiling) but in some quarters is seems to be treated like the end of civilization.
    Interest rates just went up 33%: of course it’s a big deal!

    < / sarcasm > remembering the discussion about dodgy second order derivative statistics from earlier in the week...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,339
    edited August 3



    Not sure about the Labour Party Conference. MPs have very little say in anything anymore and the party membership seems to me to be solidly behind Corbyn. Some sound and fury no doubt but signifying the usual.

    Edit, screwed up the quote boxes, apologies.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,339
    Grrr.....this cannot go on: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45053528

    We have, as usual, Amazon parcels in our hall at the moment but I for one will not use them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,164
    edited August 3
    DavidL said:

    Not sure about the Labour Party Conference. MPs have very little say in anything anymore and the party membership seems to me to be solidly behind Corbyn. Some sound and fury no doubt but signifying the usual.

    Edit, screwed up the quote boxes, apologies.

    Which is precisely why the #peoplesvote debate is going to be fascinating, because pretty much everyone except Corbyn himself appears to be in favour of it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,355
    Mr. Glenn, Trump's correct.

    In the not too distant past, England was used to mean the UK/Great Britain fairly often.

    If you check 1966 World Cup footage, there are far more Union Jacks than there are crosses of Saint George.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,427
    matt said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Interest rates up to 0.75%... an interesting choice before Brexit.

    25bps should be neither here or there (particularly with expectation setting for rises and the ceiling) but in some quarters is seems to be treated like the end of civilization.
    I agree, it's not that big of a deal.
    I do wonder though how far the BoE will be blamed if we do tip into recession next year.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,488
    DavidL said:

    On topic, and without having any feel for Sweden, it does seem that the vote is highly fragmented.

    My understanding is that the "civilised" parties will not work with them and that they will not form a part of the new government even if they are the largest party. It seems to me that this gives people something of a free hit. They can make their protest against the parties who are, in their view, mismanaging immigration amongst other issues without ending up with a quasi-fascist government, a bit like UKIP in the Euros here. I will not be betting on this but they look more like a buy than a lay to me.

    Immigration to Sweden is already sharply down, with 17 000 in 2017 compared with 150 000 in 2015, but often we get the backlash a bit later, such as the NF here in late Seventies and Eighties, when in some years there was net emigration.
  • strstr Posts: 9
    I suspect a move to the right in Sweden is not just about immigration but also the power of a killjoy form of feminism prevalent there.
    Sweden has banned sex workers and if they had their way they would ban all gambling.
    PB readers who like a punt on politics and believe in citizens freedom to either visit or be a sex worker might find choosing between the alt right and the killjoy left it is not a simple decision!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,760
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure about the Labour Party Conference. MPs have very little say in anything anymore and the party membership seems to me to be solidly behind Corbyn. Some sound and fury no doubt but signifying the usual.

    Edit, screwed up the quote boxes, apologies.

    Which is precisely why the #peoplesvote debate is going to be fascinating, because pretty much everyone except Corbyn himself appears to be in favour of it.
    Don't think so. I can't think of a single senior figure who has come out clearly in favour (or clearly against, except Thornberry, and that was a single remark). Lots of Corbyn critics, a few low-profile Momentum people, some trade unionists, and some CLPs, but there's no real steam behind it. I'm secretary of my CLP, and the number of requests we've had for support for this is zero.

    It's all about timing, though. I think it about an even chance that Labour will call for a referendum, but only when the deal is clear. There is a much better chance of getting a majority against any particular deal than against the idea of a deal in general.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,460
    edited August 3
    matt said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Interest rates up to 0.75%... an interesting choice before Brexit.

    25bps should be neither here or there (particularly with expectation setting for rises and the ceiling) but in some quarters is seems to be treated like the end of civilization.
    It's about £400 per year on people's mortgages if they've been silly enough not to fix or if they don't already have a really good tracker like those base rate plus type ones the banks are so desperate to get out of.

    But yes, I think interest rates should rise to around 1.5% over the next year and a bit. The Bank needs to reload the monetary chambers. At the moment if we went into a recession there really isn't a lot of monetary wiggle room, getting interest rates up while the economy is in reasonable shape will fix that situation.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,355
    edited August 3
    Dr. Foxy, hasn't the total number (particularly when taken as a proportion of population) of migrants to Sweden in the last five years or so been absolutely massive, though?

    Mr. Str, it sounds a bit similar to Germany, where practically every party is to the left of median opinion except the AfD.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Palmer, agree on the chance of a referendum victory against The Deal rather than A Deal, but that cuts the time frame for trying to secure said referendum. You can't win a battle that isn't fought.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 14,233
    Scott_P said:
    Is that all? No pestilence, war, famine and death?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,970
    Interesting piece Alastair. What is different is that Wilders and Le Pen were steadily declining as polling day approached. Whichever pollster you look at, the Sweden Democrats are on the up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,813
    edited August 3
    I expect if the far right top the poll anywhere in Europe (outside of maybe Italy with Lega Nord) it will be Sweden. Unlike the Netherlands the main Swedish centre right party the Moderates are not drawing some voters back from the hard right by taking a tougher line on immigration as Rutte's VVW did and there is no charismatic centre left figure like Macron opposing it but the rather pedestrian Swedish Democrat PM Lofven.

    Sweden is almost unique in the EU too in almost exactly matching the conditions in the UK before the Brexit vote ie outside the Eurozone and having failed to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 as most EU nations did exacerbating the current concerns over migration fuelling far right populism
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,917

    Scott_P said:
    Is that all? No pestilence, war, famine and death?
    If property prices did fall by 1/3, then Tories will be slaughtered at next GE, absolutely slaughtered.

    Although the young will be a bit happier.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 934
    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic, and without having any feel for Sweden, it does seem that the vote is highly fragmented.

    My understanding is that the "civilised" parties will not work with them and that they will not form a part of the new government even if they are the largest party. It seems to me that this gives people something of a free hit. They can make their protest against the parties who are, in their view, mismanaging immigration amongst other issues without ending up with a quasi-fascist government, a bit like UKIP in the Euros here. I will not be betting on this but they look more like a buy than a lay to me.

    If we had a PR system of some sort do you think that politics here would be anything other than fragmented?
    Well, yes it would, but that's because political views are far more fragmented than Parliament represents. FPTP reduces alternatives down to (in practice) two: if one aligns to your view, all well and good; if neither does, you lose your viewpoint and get down to haggling over which one you most dislike and want to keep out.

    That's great for anyone whose viewpoint is represented by one of those two, of course - competition is vastly reduced.

    With PR, you end up getting a Parliament that's fairly representative of all the views of the people, which then has to find a compromise that works for most. You'd think this would piss more people off, but in practice, contentment with their representation is measured significantly higher when people have that extra choice.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,355
    Mr. HYUFD, Austria should've had a far right president. Would've won the first attempt at election if some villages hadn't had 150% turnout for the other side.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 14,233
    Sandpit said:

    matt said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Interest rates up to 0.75%... an interesting choice before Brexit.

    25bps should be neither here or there (particularly with expectation setting for rises and the ceiling) but in some quarters is seems to be treated like the end of civilization.
    Interest rates just went up 33%: of course it’s a big deal!

    < / sarcasm > remembering the discussion about dodgy second order derivative statistics from earlier in the week...
    They went up an earth-shattering 50% actually ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,813

    Scott_P said:
    Is that all? No pestilence, war, famine and death?
    If property prices did fall by 1/3, then Tories will be slaughtered at next GE, absolutely slaughtered.

    Although the young will be a bit happier.
    Not when the alternative is Corbyn who will push them even lower and as you suggest it could get more younger people on the housing ladder and thus more likely to vote Tory
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,355
    Mr. Thompson, you think that's bad? Over the last couple of years, interest rates have tripled.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,813
    Scott_P said:
    Unemployment at 9% would still be lower than the 10% in Italy, the 16% in Spain and the 20% in Greece in the Eurozone
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,616
    If I may be permitted to go off my own topic, there's a very long but very good piece in Haaretz about Jeremy Corbyn's difficulties with the subject of anti-Semitism:

    https://www.haaretz.com/amp/world-news/.premium-why-corbynism-is-a-threat-to-jews-throughout-the-western-world-1.6339863?__twitter_impression=true
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,970

    Scott_P said:
    Is that all? No pestilence, war, famine and death?
    If property prices did fall by 1/3, then Tories will be slaughtered at next GE, absolutely slaughtered.

    Although the young will be a bit happier.
    Why would a fall in house prices hurt the Tories? It would only hurt them with a small group who have bought at the top of the market. The only way it would really hurt is if the banks were in danger of going under.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,813
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT: People seem still to be talking about May v Corbyn in terms of who can and who cannot increase their vote from 2017. Yet 2017 is probably close to peak vote for both of them; the right question is which of them is more likely to lose votes to other parties.

    Agreed. We are much more likely in the short term to see polling increases for the LDs and UKIP, as the Brexit reality unfolds.

    I do wonder what it will take for a Labour split though, if the #JC9 get elected and the various motions at Conference pass, the party will have been completely taken over by the hard left bar most of the MPs. I wonder at what point one of the larger unions moves to support SDP2?
    The largest unions are led by Serwotka and McCluskey. They make Corbyn look like Margaret Thatcher.

    Edit - actually in a careful check Serwotka's union is smaller than I thought and the largest unions are led by McCluskey, Dave Prentis and Tim Roache (in that order).

    The point stands.
    So if not one of the larger unions then who will stand behind a new party? Because it’s not going to happen until they have some serious financial support in place. If 130 MPs join a new party then there will be a pile of Short money as the Opposition, but not enough to run a full GE campaign.

    More importantly, what would be the values of the new party. To most people who have talked about it, their USP is to be virulently anti-Brexit, but before the next scheduled election that’s going to be a moot point, and a rejoin campaign will have much less support than a Remain campaign does now.
    It is not going to happen unless the LDs start running about 20% in the polls, and that is not going to happen with Vince in charge. We are stuck in a polarised political system at the moment.

    More likely that the Labour Conference will back a #peoplesvote. I can see that being the real conference battle.
    Yes, the LDs under Uncle Vince seem to have almost disappeared from public y need to find their voice, choose a couple of issues that no-one else is talking about and get them in the media over the summer. Pick something that Libertarian Conservatives could get behind, and something on the other side that a sensible Labour Party might propose but fully costed.

    Yes, Labour Conference is going to be fascinating to watch, in the same way as some people watch F1 hoping for a massive crash at the first corner!
    The LDs will not be able to attract libertarian Tories (many of them Leavers) and social democratic Remain voting Labour voters at the same time, they are ideological polar opposites, liberal Remain voting Tories maybe
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,164

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure about the Labour Party Conference. MPs have very little say in anything anymore and the party membership seems to me to be solidly behind Corbyn. Some sound and fury no doubt but signifying the usual.

    Edit, screwed up the quote boxes, apologies.

    Which is precisely why the #peoplesvote debate is going to be fascinating, because pretty much everyone except Corbyn himself appears to be in favour of it.
    Don't think so. I can't think of a single senior figure who has come out clearly in favour (or clearly against, except Thornberry, and that was a single remark). Lots of Corbyn critics, a few low-profile Momentum people, some trade unionists, and some CLPs, but there's no real steam behind it. I'm secretary of my CLP, and the number of requests we've had for support for this is zero.

    It's all about timing, though. I think it about an even chance that Labour will call for a referendum, but only when the deal is clear. There is a much better chance of getting a majority against any particular deal than against the idea of a deal in general.
    Okay I’ll take your word on that, you’re obviously a lot closer to the party than I am :)

    Agree that whatever the proposed deal, there will be opposition to it from all sides, and it’s definitely easier to critique a specific deal than the concept of one.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,616
    tlg86 said:

    Interesting piece Alastair. What is different is that Wilders and Le Pen were steadily declining as polling day approached. Whichever pollster you look at, the Sweden Democrats are on the up.

    They're still behind in most polls, yet odds-on with the bookies to get most seats. That's taking "the trend is my friend" to extremes.

    I start from the presumption that the campaign probably isn't going to make all that much difference either way (most campaigns don't). I also give opinion polls broadly equal weighting in the absence of strong reasons to treat them differently.

    I don't discount the possibility that the Sweden Democrats will finish top. Clearly that's very possible. But I don't see it as an odds-on bet or anything particularly close to odds-on given the information we currently have.

    As @rcs1000 says, this isn't one to bet the house on. I still maintain it's a value bet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,813
    edited August 3
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, I've also mopped up the lays at 3.6 on May leaving this year. Having lasted this long it's barely conceivable that she'll chuck in the towel in the middle of the final round of negotiations. In the same way, Trump to leave this year looks an excellent lay even at 13.

    For the same reason, unless something really dramatic happens I can't see a VoNC in May before next year. If she won it, she's safe for a year, and she would while negotiations are going on. However, if her enemies are patient I think most members of the PCP will want to remove her fairly swiftly after that and a VoNC becomes feasible.
    The rumour I have heard is most Tories are preparing for a VONC next autumn but will let May complete Brexit negotiations and try for a transition deal first so she carries the can for it all and the inevitable caving to the EU and the Chequers Deal and trouncing the Tories will receive in next May's local elections
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,164
    edited August 3
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    SDP2?

    The largest unions are led by Serwotka and McCluskey. They make Corbyn look like Margaret Thatcher.

    Edit - actually in a careful check Serwotka's union is smaller than I thought and the largest unions are led by McCluskey, Dave Prentis and Tim Roache (in that order).

    The point stands.
    So if not one of the larger unions then who will stand behind a new party? Because it’s not going to happen until they have some serious financial support in place. If 130 MPs join a new party then there will be a pile of Short money as the Opposition, but not enough to run a full GE campaign.

    More importantly, what would be the values of the new party. To most people who have talked about it, their USP is to be virulently anti-Brexit, but before the next scheduled election that’s going to be a moot point, and a rejoin campaign will have much less support than a Remain campaign does now.
    It is not going to happen unless the LDs start running about 20% in the polls, and that is not going to happen with Vince in charge. We are stuck in a polarised political system at the moment.

    More likely that the Labour Conference will back a #peoplesvote. I can see that being the real conference battle.
    Yes, the LDs under Uncle Vince seem to have almost disappeared from public y need to find their voice, choose a couple of issues that no-one else is talking about and get them in the media over the summer. Pick something that Libertarian Conservatives could get behind, and something on the other side that a sensible Labour Party might propose but fully costed.

    Yes, Labour Conference is going to be fascinating to watch, in the same way as some people watch F1 hoping for a massive crash at the first corner!
    The LDs will not be able to attract libertarian Tories (many of them Leavers) and social democratic Remain voting Labour voters at the same time, they are ideological polar opposites, liberal Remain voting Tories maybe
    Which is why they need to find their own space, and their own policies designed to attract supporters from around the political spectrum. Portuguese drugs policy might be one such idea, I’m sure they can come up with a couple of others.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,416
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is that all? No pestilence, war, famine and death?
    If property prices did fall by 1/3, then Tories will be slaughtered at next GE, absolutely slaughtered.

    Although the young will be a bit happier.
    Why would a fall in house prices hurt the Tories? It would only hurt them with a small group who have bought at the top of the market. The only way it would really hurt is if the banks were in danger of going under.
    Hmm I can't see it generally, perhaps in London (Although prices are such there it'll drag the mean down alot). I'll be in negative equity if mine drops by a third !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,813

    Mr. HYUFD, Austria should've had a far right president. Would've won the first attempt at election if some villages hadn't had 150% turnout for the other side.

    Yes rather suss though the far right are now in PM Kurz's government even if they were not largest party
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,901
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Unemployment at 9% would still be lower than the 10% in Italy, the 16% in Spain and the 20% in Greece in the Eurozone
    Yeah, it'd be fucking great.

    I don't think anybody who is still a committed member of the Brexitologists is going to be swayed by numbers at this point.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,970
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is that all? No pestilence, war, famine and death?
    If property prices did fall by 1/3, then Tories will be slaughtered at next GE, absolutely slaughtered.

    Although the young will be a bit happier.
    Why would a fall in house prices hurt the Tories? It would only hurt them with a small group who have bought at the top of the market. The only way it would really hurt is if the banks were in danger of going under.
    Hmm I can't see it generally, perhaps in London (Although prices are such there it'll drag the mean down alot). I'll be in negative equity if mine drops by a third !
    Yep, London is critical. It'd be interesting to see the BoE's assumptions about London. Given the Tories are not exactly strong in London, a fall in house prices there would probably not make all that much difference.

    I reckon you're probably okay. Where you are, there is quite a big gap between the cheaper terrace/semi-detached houses and the detached houses a little bit out in the country. I reckon the price of your house is representative of a decent demand for something that's in quite short supply.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,970

    tlg86 said:

    Interesting piece Alastair. What is different is that Wilders and Le Pen were steadily declining as polling day approached. Whichever pollster you look at, the Sweden Democrats are on the up.

    They're still behind in most polls, yet odds-on with the bookies to get most seats. That's taking "the trend is my friend" to extremes.

    I start from the presumption that the campaign probably isn't going to make all that much difference either way (most campaigns don't). I also give opinion polls broadly equal weighting in the absence of strong reasons to treat them differently.

    I don't discount the possibility that the Sweden Democrats will finish top. Clearly that's very possible. But I don't see it as an odds-on bet or anything particularly close to odds-on given the information we currently have.

    As @rcs1000 says, this isn't one to bet the house on. I still maintain it's a value bet.
    The Sweden Democrats do seem to be levelling off, but Senatio has the gap between the Social Democrats and the Moderates falling too. I think your bet to lay the Sweden Democrats is probably better than backing the Social Democrats.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,616
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Interesting piece Alastair. What is different is that Wilders and Le Pen were steadily declining as polling day approached. Whichever pollster you look at, the Sweden Democrats are on the up.

    They're still behind in most polls, yet odds-on with the bookies to get most seats. That's taking "the trend is my friend" to extremes.

    I start from the presumption that the campaign probably isn't going to make all that much difference either way (most campaigns don't). I also give opinion polls broadly equal weighting in the absence of strong reasons to treat them differently.

    I don't discount the possibility that the Sweden Democrats will finish top. Clearly that's very possible. But I don't see it as an odds-on bet or anything particularly close to odds-on given the information we currently have.

    As @rcs1000 says, this isn't one to bet the house on. I still maintain it's a value bet.
    The Sweden Democrats do seem to be levelling off, but Senatio has the gap between the Social Democrats and the Moderates falling too. I think your bet to lay the Sweden Democrats is probably better than backing the Social Democrats.
    If hypothetically the Sweden Democrats were to fall away as the election approaches, where does their support go? At the very least, it doesn't seem to me axiomatic that it breaks evenly between the Social Democrats and the Moderates.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,724
    Scott_P said:
    Where would the pressure be to increase interest rates to 4% in a "full blown recession"?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,813
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    SDP2?

    The largest unions are led by Serwotka and McCluskey. They make Corbyn look like Margaret Thatcher.

    Edit - actually in a careful check Serwotka's union is smaller than I thought and the largest unions are led by McCluskey, Dave Prentis and Tim Roache (in that order).

    The point stands.
    So if not one of the larger unions then who will stand behind a new party? Because it’s not going to happen until they have some serious financial support in place. If 130 MPs join a new party then there will be a pile of Short money as the Opposition, but not enough to run a full GE campaign.

    More importantly, what would be the values of the new party. To most people who have talked about it, their USP is to be virulently anti-Brexit, but before the next scheduled election that’s going to be a moot point, and a rejoin campaign will have much less support than a Remain campaign does now.
    It is not going to happen unless the LDs start running about 20% in the polls, and that is not going to happen with Vince in charge. We are stuck in a polarised political system at the moment.

    More likely that the Labour Conference will back a #peoplesvote. I can see that being the real conference battle.
    Yes, the LDs under Uncle Vince seem to have almost disappeared from public y need to find their voice, choose a couple of issues that no-one else is talking about and get them in the media over the summer. Pick something that Libertarian Conservatives could get behind, and something on the other side that a sensible Labour Party might propose but fully costed.

    Yes, Labour Conference is going to be fascinating to watch, in the same way as some people watch F1 hoping for a massive crash at the first corner!
    The LDs will not be able to attract libertarian Tories (many of them Leavers) and social democratic Remain voting Labour voters at the same time, they are ideological polar opposites, liberal Remain voting Tories maybe
    Which is why they need to find their own space, and their own policies designed to attract supporters from around the political spectrum. Portuguese drugs policy might be one such idea, I’m sure they can come up with a couple of others.
    Legalised cannabis certainly
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,339
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, I've also mopped up the lays at 3.6 on May leaving this year. Having lasted this long it's barely conceivable that she'll chuck in the towel in the middle of the final round of negotiations. In the same way, Trump to leave this year looks an excellent lay even at 13.

    For the same reason, unless something really dramatic happens I can't see a VoNC in May before next year. If she won it, she's safe for a year, and she would while negotiations are going on. However, if her enemies are patient I think most members of the PCP will want to remove her fairly swiftly after that and a VoNC becomes feasible.
    The rumour I have heard is most Tories are preparing for a VONC next autumn but will let May complete Brexit negotiations and try for a transition deal first so she carries the can for it all and the inevitable caving to the EU and the Chequers Deal and trouncing the Tories will receive in next May's local elections
    As usual they don't seem to have thought that through. May comes up with a deal, say Chequers- , what do they do? Do they vote against it with the result we have no deal with all the uncertainty and likely unpopularity of that or do they vote for it? If they vote for it how do they credibly then bring forward a VONC in light of the deal they have just supported?

    They can try to argue its still better than no deal but that May screwed up the negotiations. That would have the small benefit of being true but I am not sure it will be an easy sell. I increasingly see May going into the next election as leader unless she decides herself she has had enough. It does not fill me with joy.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,460
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, I've also mopped up the lays at 3.6 on May leaving this year. Having lasted this long it's barely conceivable that she'll chuck in the towel in the middle of the final round of negotiations. In the same way, Trump to leave this year looks an excellent lay even at 13.

    For the same reason, unless something really dramatic happens I can't see a VoNC in May before next year. If she won it, she's safe for a year, and she would while negotiations are going on. However, if her enemies are patient I think most members of the PCP will want to remove her fairly swiftly after that and a VoNC becomes feasible.
    The rumour I have heard is most Tories are preparing for a VONC next autumn but will let May complete Brexit negotiations and try for a transition deal first so she carries the can for it all and the inevitable caving to the EU and the Chequers Deal and trouncing the Tories will receive in next May's local elections
    As usual they don't seem to have thought that through. May comes up with a deal, say Chequers- , what do they do? Do they vote against it with the result we have no deal with all the uncertainty and likely unpopularity of that or do they vote for it? If they vote for it how do they credibly then bring forward a VONC in light of the deal they have just supported?

    They can try to argue its still better than no deal but that May screwed up the negotiations. That would have the small benefit of being true but I am not sure it will be an easy sell. I increasingly see May going into the next election as leader unless she decides herself she has had enough. It does not fill me with joy.
    I don't think it would be that difficult to sell, the polling is very clear - people think the government is doing a bad job negotiating brexit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,339
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Unemployment at 9% would still be lower than the 10% in Italy, the 16% in Spain and the 20% in Greece in the Eurozone
    Yeah, it'd be fucking great.

    I don't think anybody who is still a committed member of the Brexitologists is going to be swayed by numbers at this point.
    It's a model to test the robustness of the system and financial sector in a worst case scenario. Nothing more.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,339
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, I've also mopped up the lays at 3.6 on May leaving this year. Having lasted this long it's barely conceivable that she'll chuck in the towel in the middle of the final round of negotiations. In the same way, Trump to leave this year looks an excellent lay even at 13.

    For the same reason, unless something really dramatic happens I can't see a VoNC in May before next year. If she won it, she's safe for a year, and she would while negotiations are going on. However, if her enemies are patient I think most members of the PCP will want to remove her fairly swiftly after that and a VoNC becomes feasible.
    The rumour I have heard is most Tories are preparing for a VONC next autumn but will let May complete Brexit negotiations and try for a transition deal first so she carries the can for it all and the inevitable caving to the EU and the Chequers Deal and trouncing the Tories will receive in next May's local elections
    As usual they don't seem to have thought that through. May comes up with a deal, say Chequers- , what do they do? Do they vote against it with the result we have no deal with all the uncertainty and likely unpopularity of that or do they vote for it? If they vote for it how do they credibly then bring forward a VONC in light of the deal they have just supported?

    They can try to argue its still better than no deal but that May screwed up the negotiations. That would have the small benefit of being true but I am not sure it will be an easy sell. I increasingly see May going into the next election as leader unless she decides herself she has had enough. It does not fill me with joy.
    I don't think it would be that difficult to sell, the polling is very clear - people think the government is doing a bad job negotiating brexit.
    And the public are right. It has been truly pathetic. But Tories don't have the luxury of standing on the sidelines offering a critique. They either vote for or against.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,970

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Interesting piece Alastair. What is different is that Wilders and Le Pen were steadily declining as polling day approached. Whichever pollster you look at, the Sweden Democrats are on the up.

    They're still behind in most polls, yet odds-on with the bookies to get most seats. That's taking "the trend is my friend" to extremes.

    I start from the presumption that the campaign probably isn't going to make all that much difference either way (most campaigns don't). I also give opinion polls broadly equal weighting in the absence of strong reasons to treat them differently.

    I don't discount the possibility that the Sweden Democrats will finish top. Clearly that's very possible. But I don't see it as an odds-on bet or anything particularly close to odds-on given the information we currently have.

    As @rcs1000 says, this isn't one to bet the house on. I still maintain it's a value bet.
    The Sweden Democrats do seem to be levelling off, but Senatio has the gap between the Social Democrats and the Moderates falling too. I think your bet to lay the Sweden Democrats is probably better than backing the Social Democrats.
    If hypothetically the Sweden Democrats were to fall away as the election approaches, where does their support go? At the very least, it doesn't seem to me axiomatic that it breaks evenly between the Social Democrats and the Moderates.
    The funny thing is, we're discussing this with little reference to the narrative of what's going on. From a betting pov, that might not be a bad thing!

    With absolutely no knowledge of what's going on there, I did wonder if the main parties are burying their heads in the sand with respect to the issues driving the Sweden Democrats poll rating.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,837
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Unemployment at 9% would still be lower than the 10% in Italy, the 16% in Spain and the 20% in Greece in the Eurozone
    Yeah, it'd be fucking great.

    I don't think anybody who is still a committed member of the Brexitologists is going to be swayed by numbers at this point.
    It's a model to test the robustness of the system and financial sector in a worst case scenario. Nothing more.
    It's also kind of irrelevant to the type of acute logistical crisis No Deal would cause.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,339

    Scott_P said:
    Where would the pressure be to increase interest rates to 4% in a "full blown recession"?
    If the pound was absolutely tanking importing a lot of inflation, perhaps. The government is still borrowing quite a lot of money even if the total is reduced and in such a scenario they would be borrowing a lot more. Unless they just print it again they may find the yield curve going out of their control in such a scenario. But it is just to test whether Banks could take it, its not real.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,616
    Boris Johnson was last matched at 5.8 for next Prime Minister and 6 for next Conservative leader. He is therefore now the favourite in both races.

    One quirk is that Rishi Sunak (who he?) is shorter to lay for next Prime Minister (120) than to back for next Conservative leader (180). This is a discrepancy that has persisted for quite some time. Those with suitable balances on both markets might wish to take advantage of this. I'm sure there's a rational explanation for this, but it doesn't seem to involve betting.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,658
    The UK LDs need a new image, and I speak as one who voted for them while Blair was in power.

    They don't keep promises (university fees), and they belie their 'democrat' label by denying the referendum result. The first may be unfair, as all politicians lie, and the second is because they know they're right - so that makes it OK. However, moving from the caring, cuddly party to one of deception and hubris wasn't a good career move.

    As for Sweden, they're caught in the same trap to some extent. When threats appear, and some see threats, they witter on rather than facing them.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,460
    I'm with Alastair on Sweden. I think Sweden is a society that has forgotten how to fight back against the power. They will simply accept their new lot in life while their country is taken from them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,837

    Scott_P said:
    Where would the pressure be to increase interest rates to 4% in a "full blown recession"?
    I don't think Tom Newton Dunn was fully listening. Carney was just giving an example of what the UK banking system could cope with systemically. It wasn't a prediction about No Deal.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,339

    Scott_P said:
    Where would the pressure be to increase interest rates to 4% in a "full blown recession"?
    I don't think Tom Newton Dunn was fully listening. Carney was just giving an example of what the UK banking system could cope with systemically. It wasn't a prediction about No Deal.
    "not fully listening" is a remarkably generous interpretation. Pig ignorant (apologies to all pigs who are reading) might be closer.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,616
    DavidL said:


    And the public are right. It has been truly pathetic. But Tories don't have the luxury of standing on the sidelines offering a critique. They either vote for or against.

    There's this naïve idea that after 29 March 2019 everything is going to settle down. There are now only really two permutations on which Brexit can go ahead:

    1) It does so on the basis of a deal that is cordially despised by both Remainers and most Leavers, with no legitimacy and with both groups outraged that it was not put to a public vote.

    2) It does so without a deal, with at a minimum considerable short-term disruption and clear majority opposition, and appalling relations with all Britain's nearest neighbours.

    I don't see either of those being recipes for Brexit somehow retreating into a matter of historical interest only.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,460
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    Where would the pressure be to increase interest rates to 4% in a "full blown recession"?
    If the pound was absolutely tanking importing a lot of inflation, perhaps. The government is still borrowing quite a lot of money even if the total is reduced and in such a scenario they would be borrowing a lot more. Unless they just print it again they may find the yield curve going out of their control in such a scenario. But it is just to test whether Banks could take it, its not real.
    Tbh, it's more likely that the bank would hold down interest rates just as it did when sterling fell after the vote. That first fall will help hold current inflation down to tolerable levels if there really is a no deal brexit. At Barclays we had it down as $1.12 and €0.96 for no deal, the implied inflation is about 3.5% for a year or so assuming no recovery, or about 3% assuming a small recovery.

    The stabiliser effect will be worth the hassle though, without a currency fall the country would most assuredly fall into a long and deep recession.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,355
    Just checking, and Badajoz (Sharpe fans may have memories of that place) will have an overnight low of 27C. Sounds bloody horrendous.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,692
    Scott_P said:
    If that did happen, heaven forbid, but if it did - what would be the political implications?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,939
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    Where would the pressure be to increase interest rates to 4% in a "full blown recession"?
    If the pound was absolutely tanking importing a lot of inflation, perhaps. The government is still borrowing quite a lot of money even if the total is reduced and in such a scenario they would be borrowing a lot more. Unless they just print it again they may find the yield curve going out of their control in such a scenario. But it is just to test whether Banks could take it, its not real.
    Tbh, it's more likely that the bank would hold down interest rates just as it did when sterling fell after the vote. That first fall will help hold current inflation down to tolerable levels if there really is a no deal brexit. At Barclays we had it down as $1.12 and €0.96 for no deal, the implied inflation is about 3.5% for a year or so assuming no recovery, or about 3% assuming a small recovery.

    The stabiliser effect will be worth the hassle though, without a currency fall the country would most assuredly fall into a long and deep recession.
    So far, the currency devaluations have been overestimated virtually every single time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,939

    Boris Johnson was last matched at 5.8 for next Prime Minister and 6 for next Conservative leader. He is therefore now the favourite in both races.

    One quirk is that Rishi Sunak (who he?) is shorter to lay for next Prime Minister (120) than to back for next Conservative leader (180). This is a discrepancy that has persisted for quite some time. Those with suitable balances on both markets might wish to take advantage of this. I'm sure there's a rational explanation for this, but it doesn't seem to involve betting.

    I think Boris is a clear lay.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,339

    DavidL said:


    And the public are right. It has been truly pathetic. But Tories don't have the luxury of standing on the sidelines offering a critique. They either vote for or against.

    There's this naïve idea that after 29 March 2019 everything is going to settle down. There are now only really two permutations on which Brexit can go ahead:

    1) It does so on the basis of a deal that is cordially despised by both Remainers and most Leavers, with no legitimacy and with both groups outraged that it was not put to a public vote.

    2) It does so without a deal, with at a minimum considerable short-term disruption and clear majority opposition, and appalling relations with all Britain's nearest neighbours.

    I don't see either of those being recipes for Brexit somehow retreating into a matter of historical interest only.
    Whilst I don't disagree with your premise completely I think that there is a third scenario, where May does a deal on leaving, paying the bills, EU citizens etc, but the more complicated stuff like trade and how we deal with customs/local content etc is knocked down the road for further discussion with things remaining largely status quo until that is done. That seems to me the most likely scenario which means things will very much not have settled down and the same problems that have caused May's critics to stay their hands at present will continue to apply.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,164
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Unemployment at 9% would still be lower than the 10% in Italy, the 16% in Spain and the 20% in Greece in the Eurozone
    Yeah, it'd be fucking great.

    I don't think anybody who is still a committed member of the Brexitologists is going to be swayed by numbers at this point.
    It's a model to test the robustness of the system and financial sector in a worst case scenario. Nothing more.
    It does appear from the last couple of weeks that’s it’s news to many people that scenario and disaster planning and preparations take place all the time and all over government.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,939

    Scott_P said:
    Is that all? No pestilence, war, famine and death?
    I think the BoE will be told to go back and try again, this time with lakes of fire and the death of the first born.

    The NIESR - analysis that I generally think is as fair as it gets, even though I challenge some of their assumptions - shows growth slowing to about 0.1-0.2% in the event of a no deal on WTO terms.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,616
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:


    And the public are right. It has been truly pathetic. But Tories don't have the luxury of standing on the sidelines offering a critique. They either vote for or against.

    There's this naïve idea that after 29 March 2019 everything is going to settle down. There are now only really two permutations on which Brexit can go ahead:

    1) It does so on the basis of a deal that is cordially despised by both Remainers and most Leavers, with no legitimacy and with both groups outraged that it was not put to a public vote.

    2) It does so without a deal, with at a minimum considerable short-term disruption and clear majority opposition, and appalling relations with all Britain's nearest neighbours.

    I don't see either of those being recipes for Brexit somehow retreating into a matter of historical interest only.
    Whilst I don't disagree with your premise completely I think that there is a third scenario, where May does a deal on leaving, paying the bills, EU citizens etc, but the more complicated stuff like trade and how we deal with customs/local content etc is knocked down the road for further discussion with things remaining largely status quo until that is done. That seems to me the most likely scenario which means things will very much not have settled down and the same problems that have caused May's critics to stay their hands at present will continue to apply.
    Look around you. Brexiters are willing to see Northern Ireland go up in flames to secure Brexit. English Leavers would see Scottish independence as an acceptable price for Brexit. These people are not going to settle down into their chairs just because the can has been kicked down the road. The straw will remain in the pitchfork and the matches will be on standby.
This discussion has been closed.