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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Celebrating Theresa May – against all odds she’s still there a

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited August 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Celebrating Theresa May – against all odds she’s still there and looks to continue to Brexit and beyond

My most significant betting loss since the last election has been on Theresa May failing to survive 2017. This was placed in the aftermath of her disastrous conference speech last October which just seemed to sum up her whole predicament – trying to carry on after losing the party its majority.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,628
    First! And yes, she is quite the survivor!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,459
    Honorius was a survivor too. Didn't do the empire much good.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,807
    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,808

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,000
    “We’re kind of doing it for history,”

    Glenn Kessler, the editor and chief writer of the Post’s Fact Checker column, who is collating a massive database of Trump repeated, daily lies.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-trumps-washington/trumps-escalating-war-on-the-truth-is-on-purpose?mbid=social_twitter
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,807

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    Tories who are still pro-Cameron are probably the political species that baffles me the most right now. Just about every aspect of current politics that they so despise is a clear, direct consequence of one of his short-termist wheezes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,396
    May is there to complete the Brexit negotiations and get a transition period agreed for after, she will not lead the Tories at the next general election
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,396

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    Brown has that locked up, followed by Eden
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,916
    edited August 4
    Fair play to Tezzie, she feels she needs to stay out of a sense of duty to see through Brexit. She could have resigned last year at her count on election night, or the next morning, or at conference, or any other day since then, but she hasn't.

    I can't believe she thinks that she is the best person to be PM, and she must know that she can't lead the Tories into the next election, and yet she keeps taking the crap, day after day.

    In the words of a well-known mushy pea lover, she is a fighter not a quitter.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,514

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    It is worth celebrating if you want a BINO because that is what we're going to get as the clock runs out.

    It is not worth celebrating if you want a hard Brexit or want to remain.

    According to Yougov, that means 17% will be celebrating and 83% will not (50% remainers and 33% hard brexiters).


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-rohingya-muslims-aung-san-suu-kyi-burma-labour-leader-call-end-violence-a7968916.html


  • JohnRussellJohnRussell Posts: 297
    "Her approach to Brexit – honour the referendum outcome causing as little damage as possible to the economy might not satisfy the head-bangers but then nothing will"

    The headbangers should be pleased that they won the referendum & have the possibility of the opportunity to shape the future their way.

    The remainers should take comfort that in defeat, they have one of their own in charge of negotiations, and little will change for the foreseeable.

    The referendum result wasn't a mandate for revolution. Maybe BINO is the right outcome at this stage.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,628

    "Her approach to Brexit – honour the referendum outcome causing as little damage as possible to the economy might not satisfy the head-bangers but then nothing will"

    The headbangers should be pleased that they won the referendum & have the possibility of the opportunity to shape the future their way.

    The remainers should take comfort that in defeat, they have one of their own in charge of negotiations, and little will change for the foreseeable.

    The referendum result wasn't a mandate for revolution. Maybe BINO is the right outcome at this stage.

    Yeah, I agree. One step at a time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,000

    "Her approach to Brexit – honour the referendum outcome causing as little damage as possible to the economy might not satisfy the head-bangers but then nothing will"

    The headbangers should be pleased that they won the referendum & have the possibility of the opportunity to shape the future their way.

    The remainers should take comfort that in defeat, they have one of their own in charge of negotiations, and little will change for the foreseeable.

    The referendum result wasn't a mandate for revolution. Maybe BINO is the right outcome at this stage.

    Trouble is:




  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,628

    "Her approach to Brexit – honour the referendum outcome causing as little damage as possible to the economy might not satisfy the head-bangers but then nothing will"

    The headbangers should be pleased that they won the referendum & have the possibility of the opportunity to shape the future their way.

    The remainers should take comfort that in defeat, they have one of their own in charge of negotiations, and little will change for the foreseeable.

    The referendum result wasn't a mandate for revolution. Maybe BINO is the right outcome at this stage.

    Trouble is:




    Given her reddest line appears to be on freedom of movement, that doesn't seem like it will happen.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,807

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    Tories who are still pro-Cameron are probably the political species that baffles me the most right now. Just about every aspect of current politics that they so despise is a clear, direct consequence of one of his short-termist wheezes.
    Destruction of the centre- humiliating the lib dems when they were coalition partners
    Destruction of the soft left- running a fearmongering general election campaign that pretended that Miliband's Labour was hard left
    Brexit- calling a referendum for the sake of party management, destroying the centre and soft left (as above), taking advantage of Sindyref to damage Labour in Scotland which made Labour nervous about sharing a platform with Remain Tories
    Popular support for increased spending- branding his spending reductions as temporary austerity
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,127

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    I'm quite impressed that you've already forgotten the six years Cameron spent as PM after the tenure of the worst PM of the post war era and second worst of all time.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,807
    Barnesian said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    It is worth celebrating if you want a BINO because that is what we're going to get as the clock runs out.

    It is not worth celebrating if you want a hard Brexit or want to remain.

    According to Yougov, that means 17% will be celebrating and 83% will not (50% remainers and 33% hard brexiters).


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-rohingya-muslims-aung-san-suu-kyi-burma-labour-leader-call-end-violence-a7968916.html


    Time to channel HYUFD: She's not going to agree to anything that could be called BINO, and if she did she'd be no-confidenced and the deal revoked. What happens when the clock runs out is no-deal Brexit.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,855
    HYUFD said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    Brown has that locked up, followed by Eden
    No, whatever Camerons ‘achievements’ prior to 2016 they are dwarfed by the monumental cock-up and running away from same, which was what he did mid 2016. He hadn’t even the guts to take responsibility for, and try and put right, his own incompetence and stupidity.
  • JohnRussellJohnRussell Posts: 297

    "Her approach to Brexit – honour the referendum outcome causing as little damage as possible to the economy might not satisfy the head-bangers but then nothing will"

    The headbangers should be pleased that they won the referendum & have the possibility of the opportunity to shape the future their way.

    The remainers should take comfort that in defeat, they have one of their own in charge of negotiations, and little will change for the foreseeable.

    The referendum result wasn't a mandate for revolution. Maybe BINO is the right outcome at this stage.

    Trouble is:




    It would seem to me that the people who had grievances that led to Brexit, whether justified or not, have a better chance of seeing them addressed now than they did three years ago. The perfect scenario would be BINO followed by a General Election where the two main parties have distinct manifesto's Brexit-wise
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,807

    Fair play to Tezzie, she feels she needs to stay out of a sense of duty to see through Brexit. She could have resigned last year at her count on election night, or the next morning, or at conference, or any other day since then, but she hasn't.

    I can't believe she thinks that she is the best person to be PM, and she must know that she can't lead the Tories into the next election, and yet she keeps taking the crap, day after day.

    In the words of a well-known mushy pea lover, she is a fighter not a quitter.

    If a hospital janitor took it upon himself to perform my surgery despite knowing he wasn't up to the job, and locked the door so nobody competent could take over because he had a sense of duty to see it through and wasn't a quitter, my first thought wouldn't be "fair play to him"
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,710
    ydoethur said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    I'm quite impressed that you've already forgotten the six years Cameron spent as PM after the tenure of the worst PM of the post war era and second worst of all time.
    David Cameron crashed us out of the EU by mistake. By mistake! He almost broke up the United Kingdom. Cameron is, as Paxo had it, the worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,459
    King Cole, it very much remains to be seen how the UK/EU situation will develop.

    Cameron's problem in that regard is that if things turn out ok in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement by backing Remain. If things turn out poorly in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement because he held the referendum.

    To his credit, he did respond with democratic choice to the rising tide of scepticism. Not his fault, but the time for a referendum was Lisbon (or earlier). The duplicity of Brown and Labour prevented that, which would've allowed the electorate to indicate their displeasure at ever more integration without leaving entirely.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,000
    "Can a man who is incapable of managing Labour’s NEC seriously be entrusted with a meeting of Cobra? In this pitiful debacle Corbyn has revealed not only his ethical limitations. He has shown, once and for all, that he is not up to the job."

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/the-antisemitism-row-shows-us-what-a-disaster-corbyn-would-be-as-pm-a3902331.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,000
    RobD said:

    "Her approach to Brexit – honour the referendum outcome causing as little damage as possible to the economy might not satisfy the head-bangers but then nothing will"

    The headbangers should be pleased that they won the referendum & have the possibility of the opportunity to shape the future their way.

    The remainers should take comfort that in defeat, they have one of their own in charge of negotiations, and little will change for the foreseeable.

    The referendum result wasn't a mandate for revolution. Maybe BINO is the right outcome at this stage.

    Trouble is:




    Given her reddest line appears to be on freedom of movement, that doesn't seem like it will happen.
    I guess he's referring to the likely soften of red lines as the clock ticks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,459
    Mr. JohnL, the SNP had won a clear majority and had a mandate for a referendum on Scottish separation. Denying that would've been unacceptable (although I entirely agree with May rejecting the SNP shenanigans in trying to get another referendum even as the EU situation unfolds, which is nothing but opportunistic mischief-making).
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,710

    “We’re kind of doing it for history,”

    Glenn Kessler, the editor and chief writer of the Post’s Fact Checker column, who is collating a massive database of Trump repeated, daily lies.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-trumps-washington/trumps-escalating-war-on-the-truth-is-on-purpose?mbid=social_twitter

    A quick mention for the Trump Criticises Trump subreddit whose premise is: For every Trump action there is a Trump tweet criticizing that action.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/TrumpCriticizesTrump/
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,514

    Barnesian said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    It is worth celebrating if you want a BINO because that is what we're going to get as the clock runs out.

    It is not worth celebrating if you want a hard Brexit or want to remain.

    According to Yougov, that means 17% will be celebrating and 83% will not (50% remainers and 33% hard brexiters).


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-rohingya-muslims-aung-san-suu-kyi-burma-labour-leader-call-end-violence-a7968916.html


    Time to channel HYUFD: She's not going to agree to anything that could be called BINO, and if she did she'd be no-confidenced and the deal revoked. What happens when the clock runs out is no-deal Brexit.
    HYUFD in previous thread "The only post Brexit 'deal' she will get will be a withdrawal agreement and transition period where we will still be in the single market and customs union in all but name, details of the FTA to be worked on in the transition, as far as the EU is concerned potentially indefinitely"
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,837
    ydoethur said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    I'm quite impressed that you've already forgotten the six years Cameron spent as PM after the tenure of the worst PM of the post war era and second worst of all time.
    +1 Brown was obv worse imho. Coalition years were pretty well steered.

    Excellent thread OGH and agree with the sentiments you convey about all the parties you mention!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,628

    RobD said:

    "Her approach to Brexit – honour the referendum outcome causing as little damage as possible to the economy might not satisfy the head-bangers but then nothing will"

    The headbangers should be pleased that they won the referendum & have the possibility of the opportunity to shape the future their way.

    The remainers should take comfort that in defeat, they have one of their own in charge of negotiations, and little will change for the foreseeable.

    The referendum result wasn't a mandate for revolution. Maybe BINO is the right outcome at this stage.

    Trouble is:




    Given her reddest line appears to be on freedom of movement, that doesn't seem like it will happen.
    I guess he's referring to the likely soften of red lines as the clock ticks.
    You think freedom of movement will continue? Perhaps for high-skilled workers, but that's not the issue.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,855
    edited August 4

    King Cole, it very much remains to be seen how the UK/EU situation will develop.

    Cameron's problem in that regard is that if things turn out ok in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement by backing Remain. If things turn out poorly in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement because he held the referendum.

    To his credit, he did respond with democratic choice to the rising tide of scepticism. Not his fault, but the time for a referendum was Lisbon (or earlier). The duplicity of Brown and Labour prevented that, which would've allowed the electorate to indicate their displeasure at ever more integration without leaving entirely.

    No, Cameron was elected to LEAD. If he believed in Remain, then he should have made a great deal more effort. If he believed Singapore-on-Thames was a daft idea he should have said so plainly.
    He didn’t. He was far more interested in shafting Nick Clegg and ensuring a Tory majority. Having done that he wasn’t sure what to do.
  • ydoethur said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    I'm quite impressed that you've already forgotten the six years Cameron spent as PM after the tenure of the worst PM of the post war era and second worst of all time.
    +1 Brown was obv worse imho. Coalition years were pretty well steered.

    Excellent thread OGH and agree with the sentiments you convey about all the parties you mention!
    Are you setting a PB fantasy football league?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,628

    King Cole, it very much remains to be seen how the UK/EU situation will develop.

    Cameron's problem in that regard is that if things turn out ok in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement by backing Remain. If things turn out poorly in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement because he held the referendum.

    To his credit, he did respond with democratic choice to the rising tide of scepticism. Not his fault, but the time for a referendum was Lisbon (or earlier). The duplicity of Brown and Labour prevented that, which would've allowed the electorate to indicate their displeasure at ever more integration without leaving entirely.

    No, Cameron was elected to LEAD. If he believed in Remain, then he should have made a great deal more effort. If he believed Singapore-on-Thames was a daft idea he should have said so plainly.
    He didn’t. He was far more interested in shafting Nick Clegg and ensuring a Tory majority. Having done that he wasn’t sure what to do.
    You sound a touch bitter about it... :p
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,977

    ydoethur said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    I'm quite impressed that you've already forgotten the six years Cameron spent as PM after the tenure of the worst PM of the post war era and second worst of all time.
    David Cameron crashed us out of the EU by mistake. By mistake! He almost broke up the United Kingdom. Cameron is, as Paxo had it, the worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    nonsense
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,000

    “We’re kind of doing it for history,”

    Glenn Kessler, the editor and chief writer of the Post’s Fact Checker column, who is collating a massive database of Trump repeated, daily lies.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-trumps-washington/trumps-escalating-war-on-the-truth-is-on-purpose?mbid=social_twitter

    A quick mention for the Trump Criticises Trump subreddit whose premise is: For every Trump action there is a Trump tweet criticizing that action.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/TrumpCriticizesTrump/
    Thanks.

    Trump seems to be mainly retweeting the Drudge Report at the moment.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,624

    Fair play to Tezzie, she feels she needs to stay out of a sense of duty to see through Brexit. She could have resigned last year at her count on election night, or the next morning, or at conference, or any other day since then, but she hasn't.

    I can't believe she thinks that she is the best person to be PM, and she must know that she can't lead the Tories into the next election, and yet she keeps taking the crap, day after day.

    In the words of a well-known mushy pea lover, she is a fighter not a quitter.

    If a hospital janitor took it upon himself to perform my surgery despite knowing he wasn't up to the job, and locked the door so nobody competent could take over because he had a sense of duty to see it through and wasn't a quitter, my first thought wouldn't be "fair play to him"
    That analogy only works if there actually is somebody competent available.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,710

    Mr. JohnL, the SNP had won a clear majority and had a mandate for a referendum on Scottish separation. Denying that would've been unacceptable (although I entirely agree with May rejecting the SNP shenanigans in trying to get another referendum even as the EU situation unfolds, which is nothing but opportunistic mischief-making).

    Cameron's purely negative campaign, that Scotland was too wee, too poor, too stupid almost ended the union. It was only the late, positive contributions of Gordon Brown, and Ruth Davidson, to be fair, that saved the country. Learning nothing, Cameron then repeated the tactic to lose Brexit.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,837

    ydoethur said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    I'm quite impressed that you've already forgotten the six years Cameron spent as PM after the tenure of the worst PM of the post war era and second worst of all time.
    +1 Brown was obv worse imho. Coalition years were pretty well steered.

    Excellent thread OGH and agree with the sentiments you convey about all the parties you mention!
    Are you setting a PB fantasy football league?
    Only just got back from hols and clearly not thinking football until all the new Spurs signings are presented...

    Do people want me to?
  • ydoethur said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    I'm quite impressed that you've already forgotten the six years Cameron spent as PM after the tenure of the worst PM of the post war era and second worst of all time.
    +1 Brown was obv worse imho. Coalition years were pretty well steered.

    Excellent thread OGH and agree with the sentiments you convey about all the parties you mention!
    Are you setting a PB fantasy football league?
    Only just got back from hols and clearly not thinking football until all the new Spurs signings are presented...

    Do people want me to?
    Please, even if it is just us two, there'll be enough competition and oneupmanship.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,855
    RobD said:

    King Cole, it very much remains to be seen how the UK/EU situation will develop.

    Cameron's problem in that regard is that if things turn out ok in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement by backing Remain. If things turn out poorly in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement because he held the referendum.

    To his credit, he did respond with democratic choice to the rising tide of scepticism. Not his fault, but the time for a referendum was Lisbon (or earlier). The duplicity of Brown and Labour prevented that, which would've allowed the electorate to indicate their displeasure at ever more integration without leaving entirely.

    No, Cameron was elected to LEAD. If he believed in Remain, then he should have made a great deal more effort. If he believed Singapore-on-Thames was a daft idea he should have said so plainly.
    He didn’t. He was far more interested in shafting Nick Clegg and ensuring a Tory majority. Having done that he wasn’t sure what to do.
    You sound a touch bitter about it... :p
    No, a tad. Several touches = a tad.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,624
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    "Her approach to Brexit – honour the referendum outcome causing as little damage as possible to the economy might not satisfy the head-bangers but then nothing will"

    The headbangers should be pleased that they won the referendum & have the possibility of the opportunity to shape the future their way.

    The remainers should take comfort that in defeat, they have one of their own in charge of negotiations, and little will change for the foreseeable.

    The referendum result wasn't a mandate for revolution. Maybe BINO is the right outcome at this stage.

    Trouble is:




    Given her reddest line appears to be on freedom of movement, that doesn't seem like it will happen.
    I guess he's referring to the likely soften of red lines as the clock ticks.
    You think freedom of movement will continue? Perhaps for high-skilled workers, but that's not the issue.
    You think freedom moment will end?I didn’t see much sign of non-EU migration being halted, even though all politicians have known how unpopular it is for decades.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,807
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    It is worth celebrating if you want a BINO because that is what we're going to get as the clock runs out.

    It is not worth celebrating if you want a hard Brexit or want to remain.

    According to Yougov, that means 17% will be celebrating and 83% will not (50% remainers and 33% hard brexiters).


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-rohingya-muslims-aung-san-suu-kyi-burma-labour-leader-call-end-violence-a7968916.html


    Time to channel HYUFD: She's not going to agree to anything that could be called BINO, and if she did she'd be no-confidenced and the deal revoked. What happens when the clock runs out is no-deal Brexit.
    HYUFD in previous thread "The only post Brexit 'deal' she will get will be a withdrawal agreement and transition period where we will still be in the single market and customs union in all but name, details of the FTA to be worked on in the transition, as far as the EU is concerned potentially indefinitely"
    And that's a deal she won't be able to accept, because her party won't let her.

    Unless, I suppose, Boris or some other prominent Leaver thinks it's in their interest to have a BINO transition period which they can then campaign against in their leadership bid. But then the transition still wouldn't survive the next leader
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,000
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    "Her approach to Brexit – honour the referendum outcome causing as little damage as possible to the economy might not satisfy the head-bangers but then nothing will"

    The headbangers should be pleased that they won the referendum & have the possibility of the opportunity to shape the future their way.

    The remainers should take comfort that in defeat, they have one of their own in charge of negotiations, and little will change for the foreseeable.

    The referendum result wasn't a mandate for revolution. Maybe BINO is the right outcome at this stage.

    Trouble is:




    Given her reddest line appears to be on freedom of movement, that doesn't seem like it will happen.
    I guess he's referring to the likely soften of red lines as the clock ticks.
    You think freedom of movement will continue? Perhaps for high-skilled workers, but that's not the issue.
    I have no idea. Nor does anyone else as far as I can see. I still think it won't happen at all in the end. But that's just a guess.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,916

    Fair play to Tezzie, she feels she needs to stay out of a sense of duty to see through Brexit. She could have resigned last year at her count on election night, or the next morning, or at conference, or any other day since then, but she hasn't.

    I can't believe she thinks that she is the best person to be PM, and she must know that she can't lead the Tories into the next election, and yet she keeps taking the crap, day after day.

    In the words of a well-known mushy pea lover, she is a fighter not a quitter.

    If a hospital janitor took it upon himself to perform my surgery despite knowing he wasn't up to the job, and locked the door so nobody competent could take over because he had a sense of duty to see it through and wasn't a quitter, my first thought wouldn't be "fair play to him"
    For your analogy to be closer to reality, the janitor would have to have been voted for by a majority of the hospital staff as the best placed to perform the surgery after the consultant surgeon decided he wasn't up to performing the operation.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,837

    ydoethur said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    I'm quite impressed that you've already forgotten the six years Cameron spent as PM after the tenure of the worst PM of the post war era and second worst of all time.
    +1 Brown was obv worse imho. Coalition years were pretty well steered.

    Excellent thread OGH and agree with the sentiments you convey about all the parties you mention!
    Are you setting a PB fantasy football league?
    Only just got back from hols and clearly not thinking football until all the new Spurs signings are presented...

    Do people want me to?
    Please, even if it is just us two, there'll be enough competition and oneupmanship.
    Indeed!!! Bale will be the cornerstone of my FF team once he's revealed at WHL2......
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,710

    ydoethur said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    I'm quite impressed that you've already forgotten the six years Cameron spent as PM after the tenure of the worst PM of the post war era and second worst of all time.
    David Cameron crashed us out of the EU by mistake. By mistake! He almost broke up the United Kingdom. Cameron is, as Paxo had it, the worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    nonsense
    It is not nonsense. It is entirely true, unless you think Cameron was a closet hard-core Brexiteer. David Cameron crashed us out of Europe by mistake. Not in response to external events beyond his control, not as a matter of deliberate government policy, but by mistake. I cannot think of any precedent for this in British history.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,807

    Fair play to Tezzie, she feels she needs to stay out of a sense of duty to see through Brexit. She could have resigned last year at her count on election night, or the next morning, or at conference, or any other day since then, but she hasn't.

    I can't believe she thinks that she is the best person to be PM, and she must know that she can't lead the Tories into the next election, and yet she keeps taking the crap, day after day.

    In the words of a well-known mushy pea lover, she is a fighter not a quitter.

    If a hospital janitor took it upon himself to perform my surgery despite knowing he wasn't up to the job, and locked the door so nobody competent could take over because he had a sense of duty to see it through and wasn't a quitter, my first thought wouldn't be "fair play to him"
    That analogy only works if there actually is somebody competent available.
    If we end up with no deal Brexit, then we'd have been better off with a hard leaver. At least then we'd have had longer to prepare, and could have delayed A50 until we were ready. So in that case the bar is pretty low.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,628

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    "Her approach to Brexit – honour the referendum outcome causing as little damage as possible to the economy might not satisfy the head-bangers but then nothing will"

    The headbangers should be pleased that they won the referendum & have the possibility of the opportunity to shape the future their way.

    The remainers should take comfort that in defeat, they have one of their own in charge of negotiations, and little will change for the foreseeable.

    The referendum result wasn't a mandate for revolution. Maybe BINO is the right outcome at this stage.

    Trouble is:




    Given her reddest line appears to be on freedom of movement, that doesn't seem like it will happen.
    I guess he's referring to the likely soften of red lines as the clock ticks.
    You think freedom of movement will continue? Perhaps for high-skilled workers, but that's not the issue.
    I have no idea. Nor does anyone else as far as I can see. I still think it won't happen at all in the end. But that's just a guess.
    Matthew Goodwin appears to think it will!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,628

    Fair play to Tezzie, she feels she needs to stay out of a sense of duty to see through Brexit. She could have resigned last year at her count on election night, or the next morning, or at conference, or any other day since then, but she hasn't.

    I can't believe she thinks that she is the best person to be PM, and she must know that she can't lead the Tories into the next election, and yet she keeps taking the crap, day after day.

    In the words of a well-known mushy pea lover, she is a fighter not a quitter.

    If a hospital janitor took it upon himself to perform my surgery despite knowing he wasn't up to the job, and locked the door so nobody competent could take over because he had a sense of duty to see it through and wasn't a quitter, my first thought wouldn't be "fair play to him"
    That analogy only works if there actually is somebody competent available.
    If we end up with no deal Brexit, then we'd have been better off with a hard leaver. At least then we'd have had longer to prepare, and could have delayed A50 until we were ready. So in that case the bar is pretty low.
    Remember that the EU refused to discuss Brexit until A50 was triggered. We could have spent years working on a plan only for it to be immediately dismissed by the Commission.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,837
    edited August 4

    ydoethur said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    I'm quite impressed that you've already forgotten the six years Cameron spent as PM after the tenure of the worst PM of the post war era and second worst of all time.
    +1 Brown was obv worse imho. Coalition years were pretty well steered.

    Excellent thread OGH and agree with the sentiments you convey about all the parties you mention!
    Are you setting a PB fantasy football league?
    Only just got back from hols and clearly not thinking football until all the new Spurs signings are presented...

    Do people want me to?
    Please, even if it is just us two, there'll be enough competition and oneupmanship.
    Indeed!!! Bale will be the cornerstone of my FF team once he's revealed at WHL2......
    That was easy. Only had to renew the league from last year and bobs your uncle. All done and there's 3 other people already in it (even if they didn't want to be!)

    The Man, TLG and Foxy. Have you not done your team yet TSE?


    For new recruits (it's free too), the code to use is

    2325796-533763

    https://www.premierleague.com/this-is-pl/
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,710
    OT exotically-flavoured gins have now been joined on the shelves by exotically-flavoured (and priced) tonic water. You probably knew that but it surprised me, as a teetotaller.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,807

    Fair play to Tezzie, she feels she needs to stay out of a sense of duty to see through Brexit. She could have resigned last year at her count on election night, or the next morning, or at conference, or any other day since then, but she hasn't.

    I can't believe she thinks that she is the best person to be PM, and she must know that she can't lead the Tories into the next election, and yet she keeps taking the crap, day after day.

    In the words of a well-known mushy pea lover, she is a fighter not a quitter.

    If a hospital janitor took it upon himself to perform my surgery despite knowing he wasn't up to the job, and locked the door so nobody competent could take over because he had a sense of duty to see it through and wasn't a quitter, my first thought wouldn't be "fair play to him"
    For your analogy to be closer to reality, the janitor would have to have been voted for by a majority of the hospital staff as the best placed to perform the surgery after the consultant surgeon decided he wasn't up to performing the operation.
    Sure. That would make the hospital staff a bunch of fucking idiots. So the analogy holds up pretty well in that respect
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,685

    Mr. JohnL, the SNP had won a clear majority and had a mandate for a referendum on Scottish separation. Denying that would've been unacceptable (although I entirely agree with May rejecting the SNP shenanigans in trying to get another referendum even as the EU situation unfolds, which is nothing but opportunistic mischief-making).

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,807
    RobD said:

    Fair play to Tezzie, she feels she needs to stay out of a sense of duty to see through Brexit. She could have resigned last year at her count on election night, or the next morning, or at conference, or any other day since then, but she hasn't.

    I can't believe she thinks that she is the best person to be PM, and she must know that she can't lead the Tories into the next election, and yet she keeps taking the crap, day after day.

    In the words of a well-known mushy pea lover, she is a fighter not a quitter.

    If a hospital janitor took it upon himself to perform my surgery despite knowing he wasn't up to the job, and locked the door so nobody competent could take over because he had a sense of duty to see it through and wasn't a quitter, my first thought wouldn't be "fair play to him"
    That analogy only works if there actually is somebody competent available.
    If we end up with no deal Brexit, then we'd have been better off with a hard leaver. At least then we'd have had longer to prepare, and could have delayed A50 until we were ready. So in that case the bar is pretty low.
    Remember that the EU refused to discuss Brexit until A50 was triggered. We could have spent years working on a plan only for it to be immediately dismissed by the Commission.
    Right. I was specifically taking about the scenario of a hard leaver, aiming for no deal from the start.

    More generally though, all anyone would have had to do was pick an off-the-shelf deal (or no deal) to fall back to if we couldn't get a bespoke deal, and ensured preparations were ongoing for whichever option that was.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,685

    OT exotically-flavoured gins have now been joined on the shelves by exotically-flavoured (and priced) tonic water. You probably knew that but it surprised me, as a teetotaller.

    It's the alcopping (& concomitant monetising) of gin drinking.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,459
    Mr. JohnL, must admit, I was astounded to discover tonic water in glass bottles recently.

    Mr. Divvie, there does seem to be some variety in gins (recently bought a small gift pack of gin miniatures for a friend).

    Mr. Divvie (2), if Scotland had left the UK by now, you'd be out of the EU and the remainder of the UK would be in. Which is quite ironic.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,855

    OT exotically-flavoured gins have now been joined on the shelves by exotically-flavoured (and priced) tonic water. You probably knew that but it surprised me, as a teetotaller.

    It's the alcopping (& concomitant monetising) of gin drinking.
    IMHO drinking exotically flavoured gins with other exotically flavoured tonic water defeats the purpose of both.
    I’d rather drink the gins with some water and use ‘ordinary’gins... or vodka..... for the tonic waters.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,916

    OT exotically-flavoured gins have now been joined on the shelves by exotically-flavoured (and priced) tonic water. You probably knew that but it surprised me, as a teetotaller.

    It's the alcopping (& concomitant monetising) of gin drinking.
    Gin and tonic for people who think it is fashionable to drink gin and tonic but don't actually like gin and tonic.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 70,979
    edited August 4

    ydoethur said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    I'm quite impressed that you've already forgotten the six years Cameron spent as PM after the tenure of the worst PM of the post war era and second worst of all time.
    +1 Brown was obv worse imho. Coalition years were pretty well steered.

    Excellent thread OGH and agree with the sentiments you convey about all the parties you mention!
    Are you setting a PB fantasy football league?
    Only just got back from hols and clearly not thinking football until all the new Spurs signings are presented...

    Do people want me to?
    Please, even if it is just us two, there'll be enough competition and oneupmanship.
    Indeed!!! Bale will be the cornerstone of my FF team once he's revealed at WHL2......
    That was easy. Only had to renew the league from last year and bobs your uncle. All done and there's 3 other people already in it (even if they didn't want to be!)

    The Man, TLG and Foxy. Have you not done your team yet TSE?


    For new recruits (it's free too), the code to use is

    2325796-533763

    https://www.premierleague.com/this-is-pl/
    Cheers.

    Like the transfer activity at Tottenham, I'm late to the party.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,685
    edited August 4


    Mr. Divvie (2), if Scotland had left the UK by now, you'd be out of the EU and the remainder of the UK would be in. Which is quite ironic.

    Who knows? I don't think many people on here or anywhere else can be too proud of their EU predictions.

    At least even in that scenario we would be deciding for ourselves if we wanted to re-apply rather than having our EU status imposed on us. Still, one major prop of Project Fear I kicked away for evermore.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,000
    Her rivals are on manoeuvres; the touchpaper has been exposed; it will not take much to have someone light it.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/04/tory-leadership-contest-coming-soon-storm-clouds-gathering-theresa/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,855
    edited August 4

    ydoethur said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    I'm quite impressed that you've already forgotten the six years Cameron spent as PM after the tenure of the worst PM of the post war era and second worst of all time.
    +1 Brown was obv worse imho. Coalition years were pretty well steered.

    Excellent thread OGH and agree with the sentiments you convey about all the parties you mention!
    Are you setting a PB fantasy football league?
    Only just got back from hols and clearly not thinking football until all the new Spurs signings are presented...

    Do people want me to?
    Please, even if it is just us two, there'll be enough competition and oneupmanship.
    Indeed!!! Bale will be the cornerstone of my FF team once he's revealed at WHL2......
    That was easy. Only had to renew the league from last year and bobs your uncle. All done and there's 3 other people already in it (even if they didn't want to be!)

    The Man, TLG and Foxy. Have you not done your team yet TSE?


    For new recruits (it's free too), the code to use is

    2325796-533763

    https://www.premierleague.com/this-is-pl/
    Cheers.

    Like the transfer activity at Tottenham, I'm late to the party.
    Just so long as you bring some exotic gins to the party........
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,127

    ydoethur said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    I'm quite impressed that you've already forgotten the six years Cameron spent as PM after the tenure of the worst PM of the post war era and second worst of all time.
    David Cameron crashed us out of the EU by mistake. By mistake! He almost broke up the United Kingdom. Cameron is, as Paxo had it, the worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    Gordon Brown as near as damnit crashed our entire economy because he believed he had abolished boom and bust. Before you tell me the underlying causes were global in origin, I am perfectly aware of that, but I am also aware that Brown's dithering, complacency, incompetence and dishonesty had left us and particularly our banks appallingly over-exposed, leading to a series of failures that a competent government (that of John Howard springs to mind) could have avoided (and indeed did avoid).

    Moreover, harsh though North's press is because people tend to remember only the loss of the American colonies and not the twelve years of mostly quite effective government, it is ludicrous and indeed ignorant to suggest he was worse than Brown, Rosebery, Chamberlain, Russell, Melbourne, Portland, Rockingham, Shelburne, Addington or above all Goderich, who was absolutely the worst Prime Minister this country has ever had.
  • If there's one thing we can, perhaps, take away from this entire experience then it's that referendums aren't necessarily a good idea in Parliamentary systems - because they can create these kinds of conflicts in which people vote for an outcome that the majority in Parliament won't accept and doesn't want to implement (or, indeed, may find itself incapable of so doing effectively.) Representative democracy requires that we allow the representatives that we have elected to get on with their jobs, and that we vote them out if we don't like the way that they are doing them.

    Having granted the EU referendum I think that Parliament is obliged to act upon it, but there shouldn't be any more of them save for in two circumstances only:

    1. If the UK Parliament wishes to surrender sovereignty in an irreversible manner, for example if we were to stay in the EU and it were subsequently proposed that the EU should become a nation state and we should be subsumed within it.
    2. Because of its special circumstances (i.e. sectarian politics and the terms of the peace settlement,) the ability to call a Border Poll will need to be retained for Northern Ireland.

    With hindsight, it would've been infinitely preferable if we'd stayed put in the EU unless or until a majority of MPs in favour of leaving were elected, in which case they could've withdrawn under their own authority by passing the relevant legislation without having to put the country itself through the blender to obtain permission.

    Likewise, because the UK is generally accepted to be a voluntary association, I would be in favour of establishing a legislative framework that allows a majority of the relevant legislators (MSPs, AMs, or MPs returned by English constituencies only) to begin the process of leaving the UK for their country, provided that their intention to vote for such an outcome had been formally declared in their election manifestos in an agreed form of words.

    Germany, because of its history, outlawed referendums. We should learn from our history and restrict their use as well.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,127
    edited August 4


    Mr. Divvie (2), if Scotland had left the UK by now, you'd be out of the EU and the remainder of the UK would be in. Which is quite ironic.

    Who knows? I don't think many people on here or anywhere else can be too proud of their EU predictions.

    At least even in that scenario we would be deciding for ourselves if we wanted to re-apply rather than having our EU status imposed on us. Still, one major prop of Project Fear I kicked away for evermore.
    I think the point is the referendum was Cameron's idea, and his government would have collapsed if Scotland had voted for independence (as Salmond's did) so the referendum would not have happened.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,591

    King Cole, it very much remains to be seen how the UK/EU situation will develop.

    Cameron's problem in that regard is that if things turn out ok in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement by backing Remain. If things turn out poorly in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement because he held the referendum.

    To his credit, he did respond with democratic choice to the rising tide of scepticism. Not his fault, but the time for a referendum was Lisbon (or earlier). The duplicity of Brown and Labour prevented that, which would've allowed the electorate to indicate their displeasure at ever more integration without leaving entirely.

    No, Cameron was elected to LEAD. If he believed in Remain, then he should have made a great deal more effort. If he believed Singapore-on-Thames was a daft idea he should have said so plainly.
    He didn’t. He was far more interested in shafting Nick Clegg and ensuring a Tory majority. Having done that he wasn’t sure what to do.
    It was difficult to make the case that the EU is crap, but on balance we'd still be worse off if we left (to be fair, that's a very widespread view, and certainly a reasonable one).
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,808

    RobD said:

    Fair play to Tezzie, she feels she needs to stay out of a sense of duty to see through Brexit. She could have resigned last year at her count on election night, or the next morning, or at conference, or any other day since then, but she hasn't.

    I can't believe she thinks that she is the best person to be PM, and she must know that she can't lead the Tories into the next election, and yet she keeps taking the crap, day after day.

    In the words of a well-known mushy pea lover, she is a fighter not a quitter.

    If a hospital janitor took it upon himself to perform my surgery despite knowing he wasn't up to the job, and locked the door so nobody competent could take over because he had a sense of duty to see it through and wasn't a quitter, my first thought wouldn't be "fair play to him"
    That analogy only works if there actually is somebody competent available.
    If we end up with no deal Brexit, then we'd have been better off with a hard leaver. At least then we'd have had longer to prepare, and could have delayed A50 until we were ready. So in that case the bar is pretty low.
    Remember that the EU refused to discuss Brexit until A50 was triggered. We could have spent years working on a plan only for it to be immediately dismissed by the Commission.
    Right. I was specifically taking about the scenario of a hard leaver, aiming for no deal from the start.

    More generally though, all anyone would have had to do was pick an off-the-shelf deal (or no deal) to fall back to if we couldn't get a bespoke deal, and ensured preparations were ongoing for whichever option that was.
    Exactly. May inherited a deeply divided country which had just voted for something that could not be delivered, namely a "cake and eat it" Brexit. The overriding need at that point was to take steps to reunify the nation and to enter an honest dialogue about the way in which Brexit could be delivered. But she did neither if those things, she merely sloganised "Brexit menas Brexit" and "no deal is better than a bad deal." And far from seeking unity she stirred up division by condemning her opponents as "citizens of nowhere." The mess she now finds herself in is entirely of her own making.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,591

    If there's one thing we can, perhaps, take away from this entire experience then it's that referendums aren't necessarily a good idea in Parliamentary systems - because they can create these kinds of conflicts in which people vote for an outcome that the majority in Parliament won't accept and doesn't want to implement (or, indeed, may find itself incapable of so doing effectively.) Representative democracy requires that we allow the representatives that we have elected to get on with their jobs, and that we vote them out if we don't like the way that they are doing them.

    Having granted the EU referendum I think that Parliament is obliged to act upon it, but there shouldn't be any more of them save for in two circumstances only:

    1. If the UK Parliament wishes to surrender sovereignty in an irreversible manner, for example if we were to stay in the EU and it were subsequently proposed that the EU should become a nation state and we should be subsumed within it.
    2. Because of its special circumstances (i.e. sectarian politics and the terms of the peace settlement,) the ability to call a Border Poll will need to be retained for Northern Ireland.

    With hindsight, it would've been infinitely preferable if we'd stayed put in the EU unless or until a majority of MPs in favour of leaving were elected, in which case they could've withdrawn under their own authority by passing the relevant legislation without having to put the country itself through the blender to obtain permission.

    Likewise, because the UK is generally accepted to be a voluntary association, I would be in favour of establishing a legislative framework that allows a majority of the relevant legislators (MSPs, AMs, or MPs returned by English constituencies only) to begin the process of leaving the UK for their country, provided that their intention to vote for such an outcome had been formally declared in their election manifestos in an agreed form of words.

    Germany, because of its history, outlawed referendums. We should learn from our history and restrict their use as well.

    I think that it would certainly have been optimal if a government had got elected on a programme of leaving the EU, but I think that government would have been duty-bound to put the proposal to the voters in a referendum.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,678
    That's what will happen ultimately. There isn't a viable option for the UK that doesn't involve a close relationship with the EU. No Deal, which has never been workable end state, seems to have been killed off in the past couple of weeks amid talk of shortages of foods and medicines. Therefore that the terms of that close relationship will be set almost entirely by the European Union. The choice put in front of the electorate, and as understood by it, was a false one. It was never available. The actual choice is between being a member of the European Union and participating in collective decision making, influencing those decisions while being bound by them. Or being bound by decisions made by others who have absolutely no incentive to consider our interest, so we what we are told.

    Given that actually IS our choice, I suspect most Leavers will opt for doing what we are told rather than participation, but they will complain bitterly about it.

    BINO doesn't exist. It's Vassal State and much worse.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,591
    FF43 said:

    That's what will happen ultimately. There isn't a viable option for the UK that doesn't involve a close relationship with the EU. No Deal, which has never been workable end state, seems to have been killed off in the past couple of weeks amid talk of shortages of foods and medicines. Therefore that the terms of that close relationship will be set almost entirely by the European Union. The choice put in front of the electorate, and as understood by it, was a false one. It was never available. The actual choice is between being a member of the European Union and participating in collective decision making, influencing those decisions while being bound by them. Or being bound by decisions made by others who have absolutely no incentive to consider our interest, so we what we are told.

    Given that actually IS our choice, I suspect most Leavers will opt for doing what we are told rather than participation, but they will complain bitterly about it.

    BINO doesn't exist. It's Vassal State and much worse.

    So, in your view, it's Alexei Sayle's choice between sticking your head in a bucket of shit, or sticking your head in a bucket of acid?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,190

    Fair play to Tezzie, she feels she needs to stay out of a sense of duty to see through Brexit. She could have resigned last year at her count on election night, or the next morning, or at conference, or any other day since then, but she hasn't.

    I can't believe she thinks that she is the best person to be PM, and she must know that she can't lead the Tories into the next election, and yet she keeps taking the crap, day after day.

    In the words of a well-known mushy pea lover, she is a fighter not a quitter.

    If a hospital janitor took it upon himself to perform my surgery despite knowing he wasn't up to the job, and locked the door so nobody competent could take over because he had a sense of duty to see it through and wasn't a quitter, my first thought wouldn't be "fair play to him"
    For your analogy to be closer to reality, the janitor would have to have been voted for by a majority of the hospital staff as the best placed to perform the surgery after the consultant surgeon decided he wasn't up to performing the operation.
    Sure. That would make the hospital staff a bunch of fucking idiots. So the analogy holds up pretty well in that respect
    I think the analogy is slightly different: the patient has an ailment that is unprecedented, and no-one knows how to cure it - they can only use their best judgement. They are fighting amongst themselves about the best cure, and no-one - not even the surgeons themselves - truly know what it is. The head of department, faced with a multitude of different views, is trying to come up with the best course of action, but the infighting is making the patient decline.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,685
    ydoethur said:


    Mr. Divvie (2), if Scotland had left the UK by now, you'd be out of the EU and the remainder of the UK would be in. Which is quite ironic.

    Who knows? I don't think many people on here or anywhere else can be too proud of their EU predictions.

    At least even in that scenario we would be deciding for ourselves if we wanted to re-apply rather than having our EU status imposed on us. Still, one major prop of Project Fear I kicked away for evermore.
    I think the point is the referendum was Cameron's idea, and his government would have collapsed if Scotland had voted for independence (as Salmond's did) so the referendum would not have happened.
    That would suggest either a EU friendly Tory taking over from DC or an EU friendly Ed winning a GE. I think it's just as likely that a more right wing Brexity politics would have come to pass in an incredible, shrinking UK scenario; Brexit itself is evidence that all that stuff was bubbling under.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,127

    ydoethur said:


    Mr. Divvie (2), if Scotland had left the UK by now, you'd be out of the EU and the remainder of the UK would be in. Which is quite ironic.

    Who knows? I don't think many people on here or anywhere else can be too proud of their EU predictions.

    At least even in that scenario we would be deciding for ourselves if we wanted to re-apply rather than having our EU status imposed on us. Still, one major prop of Project Fear I kicked away for evermore.
    I think the point is the referendum was Cameron's idea, and his government would have collapsed if Scotland had voted for independence (as Salmond's did) so the referendum would not have happened.
    That would suggest either a EU friendly Tory taking over from DC or an EU friendly Ed winning a GE. I think it's just as likely that a more right wing Brexity politics would have come to pass in an incredible, shrinking UK scenario; Brexit itself is evidence that all that stuff was bubbling under.
    I think Ed Miliband could have won in 2015 had Scotland not been an issue. Don't underestimate how disliked the SNP are in England.

    The key point though is that however 'Brexity' another leader might have been it would have been unlikely they would have called a referendum. That was Cameron's idea and it was controversial even among Conservatives - Osborne for example was opposed.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,591
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:


    Mr. Divvie (2), if Scotland had left the UK by now, you'd be out of the EU and the remainder of the UK would be in. Which is quite ironic.

    Who knows? I don't think many people on here or anywhere else can be too proud of their EU predictions.

    At least even in that scenario we would be deciding for ourselves if we wanted to re-apply rather than having our EU status imposed on us. Still, one major prop of Project Fear I kicked away for evermore.
    I think the point is the referendum was Cameron's idea, and his government would have collapsed if Scotland had voted for independence (as Salmond's did) so the referendum would not have happened.
    That would suggest either a EU friendly Tory taking over from DC or an EU friendly Ed winning a GE. I think it's just as likely that a more right wing Brexity politics would have come to pass in an incredible, shrinking UK scenario; Brexit itself is evidence that all that stuff was bubbling under.
    I think Ed Miliband could have won in 2015 had Scotland not been an issue. Don't underestimate how disliked the SNP are in England.

    The key point though is that however 'Brexity' another leader might have been it would have been unlikely they would have called a referendum. That was Cameron's idea and it was controversial even among Conservatives - Osborne for example was opposed.
    I think the can could have been kicked down the road for a while, but not indefinitely.

    Looking at the BSA surveys, public opinion turned very hostile towards the EU after 1992. There were two big jumps in hostility, 1995-97, and 2008-12, which were not reversed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,396

    Barnesian said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    It is worth celebrating if you want a BINO because that is what we're going to get as the clock runs out.

    It is not worth celebrating if you want a hard Brexit or want to remain.

    According to Yougov, that means 17% will be celebrating and 83% will not (50% remainers and 33% hard brexiters).


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-rohingya-muslims-aung-san-suu-kyi-burma-labour-leader-call-end-violence-a7968916.html


    Time to channel HYUFD: She's not going to agree to anything that could be called BINO, and if she did she'd be no-confidenced and the deal revoked. What happens when the clock runs out is no-deal Brexit.
    No, she has already agreed to BINO in effect with the Chequers Deal in most respects bar a token figment on free movement being replaced by a migration framework to agree the withdrawal agreement and the transition deal
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,240
    Sean_F said:

    King Cole, it very much remains to be seen how the UK/EU situation will develop.

    Cameron's problem in that regard is that if things turn out ok in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement by backing Remain. If things turn out poorly in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement because he held the referendum.

    To his credit, he did respond with democratic choice to the rising tide of scepticism. Not his fault, but the time for a referendum was Lisbon (or earlier). The duplicity of Brown and Labour prevented that, which would've allowed the electorate to indicate their displeasure at ever more integration without leaving entirely.

    No, Cameron was elected to LEAD. If he believed in Remain, then he should have made a great deal more effort. If he believed Singapore-on-Thames was a daft idea he should have said so plainly.
    He didn’t. He was far more interested in shafting Nick Clegg and ensuring a Tory majority. Having done that he wasn’t sure what to do.
    It was difficult to make the case that the EU is crap, but on balance we'd still be worse off if we left (to be fair, that's a very widespread view, and certainly a reasonable one).
    By being smart, not quite shafting Nick Clegg, he'd have kept the hard right at bay and avoided the problem. Loyal Tories like Soames are now saying 'let's blow up Brexit'.

    One can argue that Eden, Douglas-Home and Brown were poor PMs but none of them caused the greatest constitutional crisis for 300 years. That's apparently what Dominic Grieve thinks, and I tend to defer to people like him, but R4 cut him off after he said this and didn't let him expand his argument.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,685
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:


    Mr. Divvie (2), if Scotland had left the UK by now, you'd be out of the EU and the remainder of the UK would be in. Which is quite ironic.

    Who knows? I don't think many people on here or anywhere else can be too proud of their EU predictions.

    At least even in that scenario we would be deciding for ourselves if we wanted to re-apply rather than having our EU status imposed on us. Still, one major prop of Project Fear I kicked away for evermore.
    I think the point is the referendum was Cameron's idea, and his government would have collapsed if Scotland had voted for independence (as Salmond's did) so the referendum would not have happened.
    That would suggest either a EU friendly Tory taking over from DC or an EU friendly Ed winning a GE. I think it's just as likely that a more right wing Brexity politics would have come to pass in an incredible, shrinking UK scenario; Brexit itself is evidence that all that stuff was bubbling under.
    I think Ed Miliband could have won in 2015 had Scotland not been an issue. Don't underestimate how disliked the SNP are in England.

    The key point though is that however 'Brexity' another leader might have been it would have been unlikely they would have called a referendum. That was Cameron's idea and it was controversial even among Conservatives - Osborne for example was opposed.
    Do you think all that 'dislike' of the SNP (as irrational as the more extreme EUrophobia) would have suddenly switched off as these types saw one third of their land mass being snipped off their Britishness? I don't believe a kinder, gentler politics was ever on the agenda in any scenario, or in any other country as events have proved.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 23,429


    Mr. Divvie (2), if Scotland had left the UK by now, you'd be out of the EU and the remainder of the UK would be in. Which is quite ironic.

    Who knows? I don't think many people on here or anywhere else can be too proud of their EU predictions.

    At least even in that scenario we would be deciding for ourselves if we wanted to re-apply rather than having our EU status imposed on us. Still, one major prop of Project Fear I kicked away for evermore.
    There are several props of Project Fear that could have been easily dealt with if the Yes campaign were able to adopt an unequivocally pro-EU position. In 2014 they had to hedge their bets to keep Eurosceptic supporters on side but I think the legacy of Brexit will be that this is no longer necessary.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,396
    edited August 4


    Mr. Divvie (2), if Scotland had left the UK by now, you'd be out of the EU and the remainder of the UK would be in. Which is quite ironic.

    Who knows? I don't think many people on here or anywhere else can be too proud of their EU predictions.

    At least even in that scenario we would be deciding for ourselves if we wanted to re-apply rather than having our EU status imposed on us. Still, one major prop of Project Fear I kicked away for evermore.
    I doubt most Scots are that bothered about the EU, they would be happy with a Norway style EEA membership, after all over a third of even SNP voters voted Leave.

    EEA mbership but not EU membership is where the UK most likely ends up in a decade anyway once immigration has been brought under control
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,396
    edited August 4
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:


    Mr. Divvie (2), if Scotland had left the UK by now, you'd be out of the EU and the remainder of the UK would be in. Which is quite ironic.

    Who knows? I don't think many people on here or anywhere else can be too proud of their EU predictions.

    At least even in that scenario we would be deciding for ourselves if we wanted to re-apply rather than having our EU status imposed on us. Still, one major prop of Project Fear I kicked away for evermore.
    I think the point is the referendum was Cameron's idea, and his government would have collapsed if Scotland had voted for independence (as Salmond's did) so the referendum would not have happened.
    That would suggest either a EU friendly Tory taking over from DC or an EU friendly Ed winning a GE. I think it's just as likely that a more right wing Brexity politics would have come to pass in an incredible, shrinking UK scenario; Brexit itself is evidence that all that stuff was bubbling under.
    I think Ed Miliband could have won in 2015 had Scotland not been an issue. Don't underestimate how disliked the SNP are in England.

    The key point though is that however 'Brexity' another leader might have been it would have been unlikely they would have called a referendum. That was Cameron's idea and it was controversial even among Conservatives - Osborne for example was opposed.
    Without the SNP propping him up there is no way Ed Miliband could have become PM in 2015, the Tories won a majority in 2015 of 86 in GB outside Scotland
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,205
    edited August 4

    ydoethur said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    I'm quite impressed that you've already forgotten the six years Cameron spent as PM after the tenure of the worst PM of the post war era and second worst of all time.
    David Cameron crashed us out of the EU by mistake. By mistake! He almost broke up the United Kingdom. Cameron is, as Paxo had it, the worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    Give it 30 years for a view. All you’re talking is your politics, not objective history. This rushing to judgement and sweeping statement stuff is deeply tedious.

    To take an example from 30ish years ago, only now are we giving the Heath administration some objective analysis (I have a book of essays which purports to be a reassessment published perhaps 15 years ago - interesting but too early. Reading it now gives distance and some of it seems fairer).

    Edit- The Heath Government 1970 - 1974 edited by Ball and Selsdon, published 1996. Recommended.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 12,004
    Sean_F said:

    King Cole, it very much remains to be seen how the UK/EU situation will develop.

    Cameron's problem in that regard is that if things turn out ok in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement by backing Remain. If things turn out poorly in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement because he held the referendum.

    To his credit, he did respond with democratic choice to the rising tide of scepticism. Not his fault, but the time for a referendum was Lisbon (or earlier). The duplicity of Brown and Labour prevented that, which would've allowed the electorate to indicate their displeasure at ever more integration without leaving entirely.

    No, Cameron was elected to LEAD. If he believed in Remain, then he should have made a great deal more effort. If he believed Singapore-on-Thames was a daft idea he should have said so plainly.
    He didn’t. He was far more interested in shafting Nick Clegg and ensuring a Tory majority. Having done that he wasn’t sure what to do.
    It was difficult to make the case that the EU is crap, but on balance we'd still be worse off if we left (to be fair, that's a very widespread view, and certainly a reasonable one).
    The 'being in the EU is crap but better than being out' argument would require British politicians and Sir Humphreys to acknowledge their decades of defeat.

    That all the talk of "Europe is coming our way", "France will need an ally against Germany / Germany will need an ally against France", "we need to make concessions now to get some influence in the future" etc was bollox to cover up their failure.

    And they weren't going to do that willingly.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 23,429

    Do you think all that 'dislike' of the SNP (as irrational as the more extreme EUrophobia) would have suddenly switched off as these types saw one third of their land mass being snipped off their Britishness? I don't believe a kinder, gentler politics was ever on the agenda in any scenario, or in any other country as events have proved.

    This is supremely incoherent from Matthew Goodwin:

    "The nature of this national identity was the first in-built advantage for Leave. ‘Englishness,’ or feeling very strongly attached to the nation, became a key tributary of the Leave vote. Whereas 64 percent of people who felt ‘English not British’ saw Britain’s membership of the EU as a ‘bad thing,’ among those who felt ‘British not English’ this crashed to 28 percent. The more English people felt the more likely that they would support Brexit.

    "It was, therefore, no surprise when in later years most people simply never developed an affective attachment to the idea of European integration. The British had perhaps always been suspicious of power hierarchies that felt remote and lacking in democratic accountability. But they had also been wary of identities that claimed to supersede the nation."
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,998
    Those get people might enjoy this old song to cheer them up. Just the right blend of whining, contempt and derision to suit our Remoaner friends

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,591

    Sean_F said:

    King Cole, it very much remains to be seen how the UK/EU situation will develop.

    Cameron's problem in that regard is that if things turn out ok in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement by backing Remain. If things turn out poorly in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement because he held the referendum.

    To his credit, he did respond with democratic choice to the rising tide of scepticism. Not his fault, but the time for a referendum was Lisbon (or earlier). The duplicity of Brown and Labour prevented that, which would've allowed the electorate to indicate their displeasure at ever more integration without leaving entirely.

    No, Cameron was elected to LEAD. If he believed in Remain, then he should have made a great deal more effort. If he believed Singapore-on-Thames was a daft idea he should have said so plainly.
    He didn’t. He was far more interested in shafting Nick Clegg and ensuring a Tory majority. Having done that he wasn’t sure what to do.
    It was difficult to make the case that the EU is crap, but on balance we'd still be worse off if we left (to be fair, that's a very widespread view, and certainly a reasonable one).
    By being smart, not quite shafting Nick Clegg, he'd have kept the hard right at bay and avoided the problem. Loyal Tories like Soames are now saying 'let's blow up Brexit'.

    One can argue that Eden, Douglas-Home and Brown were poor PMs but none of them caused the greatest constitutional crisis for 300 years. That's apparently what Dominic Grieve thinks, and I tend to defer to people like him, but R4 cut him off after he said this and didn't let him expand his argument.
    300 years? That's myopic on the part of Dominic Grieve.

    Over that period, we've had Jacobite revolts, the American War, the Gordon Riots, Revolutionary ferment in the 1790's, the Luddites, near-revolt over the Reform Acts, the Swing Riots, the Suffragettes, the Home Rule Crisis, the General Strike etc.

    I think some people see 1973 as Year Zero.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,591

    Sean_F said:

    King Cole, it very much remains to be seen how the UK/EU situation will develop.

    Cameron's problem in that regard is that if things turn out ok in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement by backing Remain. If things turn out poorly in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement because he held the referendum.

    To his credit, he did respond with democratic choice to the rising tide of scepticism. Not his fault, but the time for a referendum was Lisbon (or earlier). The duplicity of Brown and Labour prevented that, which would've allowed the electorate to indicate their displeasure at ever more integration without leaving entirely.

    No, Cameron was elected to LEAD. If he believed in Remain, then he should have made a great deal more effort. If he believed Singapore-on-Thames was a daft idea he should have said so plainly.
    He didn’t. He was far more interested in shafting Nick Clegg and ensuring a Tory majority. Having done that he wasn’t sure what to do.
    It was difficult to make the case that the EU is crap, but on balance we'd still be worse off if we left (to be fair, that's a very widespread view, and certainly a reasonable one).
    The 'being in the EU is crap but better than being out' argument would require British politicians and Sir Humphreys to acknowledge their decades of defeat.

    That all the talk of "Europe is coming our way", "France will need an ally against Germany / Germany will need an ally against France", "we need to make concessions now to get some influence in the future" etc was bollox to cover up their failure.

    And they weren't going to do that willingly.
    It's the best argument, at least in the short run. It's how you keep Southern European countries in the Euro. It's crap, but he consequences of leaving will be worse, in the short term.

    Whether you do actually build real popular consent for the project on that basis is more questionable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,396

    Do you think all that 'dislike' of the SNP (as irrational as the more extreme EUrophobia) would have suddenly switched off as these types saw one third of their land mass being snipped off their Britishness? I don't believe a kinder, gentler politics was ever on the agenda in any scenario, or in any other country as events have proved.

    This is supremely incoherent from Matthew Goodwin:

    "The nature of this national identity was the first in-built advantage for Leave. ‘Englishness,’ or feeling very strongly attached to the nation, became a key tributary of the Leave vote. Whereas 64 percent of people who felt ‘English not British’ saw Britain’s membership of the EU as a ‘bad thing,’ among those who felt ‘British not English’ this crashed to 28 percent. The more English people felt the more likely that they would support Brexit.

    "It was, therefore, no surprise when in later years most people simply never developed an affective attachment to the idea of European integration. The British had perhaps always been suspicious of power hierarchies that felt remote and lacking in democratic accountability. But they had also been wary of identities that claimed to supersede the nation."
    The rise of the SNP, Front National, UKIP and Brexit, Lega Nord, Trumpism and 'America First', the Swedish Democrats, Pauline Hanson's One Nation in Australia etc is all a symptom of rising nationalism across the West and a rejection of the insecurities of globalisation and multinational organisations for the certainly of local cultural identity
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,000
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    King Cole, it very much remains to be seen how the UK/EU situation will develop.

    Cameron's problem in that regard is that if things turn out ok in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement by backing Remain. If things turn out poorly in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement because he held the referendum.

    To his credit, he did respond with democratic choice to the rising tide of scepticism. Not his fault, but the time for a referendum was Lisbon (or earlier). The duplicity of Brown and Labour prevented that, which would've allowed the electorate to indicate their displeasure at ever more integration without leaving entirely.

    No, Cameron was elected to LEAD. If he believed in Remain, then he should have made a great deal more effort. If he believed Singapore-on-Thames was a daft idea he should have said so plainly.
    He didn’t. He was far more interested in shafting Nick Clegg and ensuring a Tory majority. Having done that he wasn’t sure what to do.
    It was difficult to make the case that the EU is crap, but on balance we'd still be worse off if we left (to be fair, that's a very widespread view, and certainly a reasonable one).
    By being smart, not quite shafting Nick Clegg, he'd have kept the hard right at bay and avoided the problem. Loyal Tories like Soames are now saying 'let's blow up Brexit'.

    One can argue that Eden, Douglas-Home and Brown were poor PMs but none of them caused the greatest constitutional crisis for 300 years. That's apparently what Dominic Grieve thinks, and I tend to defer to people like him, but R4 cut him off after he said this and didn't let him expand his argument.
    300 years? That's myopic on the part of Dominic Grieve.

    Over that period, we've had Jacobite revolts, the American War, the Gordon Riots, Revolutionary ferment in the 1790's, the Luddites, near-revolt over the Reform Acts, the Swing Riots, the Suffragettes, the Home Rule Crisis, the General Strike etc.

    I think some people see 1973 as Year Zero.
    The People's Budget and House of Lords is surely up there?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,931
    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    I'm quite impressed that you've already forgotten the six years Cameron spent as PM after the tenure of the worst PM of the post war era and second worst of all time.
    David Cameron crashed us out of the EU by mistake. By mistake! He almost broke up the United Kingdom. Cameron is, as Paxo had it, the worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    Give it 30 years for a view. All you’re talking is your politics, not objective history. This rushing to judgement and sweeping statement stuff is deeply tedious.

    To take an example from 30ish years ago, only now are we giving the Heath administration some objective analysis (I have a book of essays which purports to be a reassessment publish perhaps 15 years ago - interesting but too early. Reading it now gives distance and some of it seems fairer).
    It may take 30 years to judge whether the consequences of Cameron's arrogance and laziness were benign or not; all sorts of good things happen by accident. It doesn't need 30 years to recognise arrogance and laziness for what they are.
  • HYUFD said:


    Mr. Divvie (2), if Scotland had left the UK by now, you'd be out of the EU and the remainder of the UK would be in. Which is quite ironic.

    Who knows? I don't think many people on here or anywhere else can be too proud of their EU predictions.

    At least even in that scenario we would be deciding for ourselves if we wanted to re-apply rather than having our EU status imposed on us. Still, one major prop of Project Fear I kicked away for evermore.
    I doubt most Scots are that bothered about the EU, they would be happy with a Norway style EEA membership, after all over a third of even SNP voters voted Leave.

    EEA mbership but not EU membership is where the UK most likely ends up in a decade anyway once immigration has been brought under control
    Question: does the UK Government need to issue separate notification of its intention to withdraw from the EEA, and if so has it got around to doing it?

    One advantage to ending up with some form of Norwayesque fudge is that it would infuriate the ultra-Leavers and the ultra-Remainers in equal measure, which can only be a good thing.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,011

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:


    Mr. Divvie (2), if Scotland had left the UK by now, you'd be out of the EU and the remainder of the UK would be in. Which is quite ironic.

    Who knows? I don't think many people on here or anywhere else can be too proud of their EU predictions.

    At least even in that scenario we would be deciding for ourselves if we wanted to re-apply rather than having our EU status imposed on us. Still, one major prop of Project Fear I kicked away for evermore.
    I think the point is the referendum was Cameron's idea, and his government would have collapsed if Scotland had voted for independence (as Salmond's did) so the referendum would not have happened.
    That would suggest either a EU friendly Tory taking over from DC or an EU friendly Ed winning a GE. I think it's just as likely that a more right wing Brexity politics would have come to pass in an incredible, shrinking UK scenario; Brexit itself is evidence that all that stuff was bubbling under.
    I think Ed Miliband could have won in 2015 had Scotland not been an issue. Don't underestimate how disliked the SNP are in England.

    The key point though is that however 'Brexity' another leader might have been it would have been unlikely they would have called a referendum. That was Cameron's idea and it was controversial even among Conservatives - Osborne for example was opposed.
    Do you think all that 'dislike' of the SNP (as irrational as the more extreme EUrophobia) would have suddenly switched off as these types saw one third of their land mass being snipped off their Britishness? I don't believe a kinder, gentler politics was ever on the agenda in any scenario, or in any other country as events have proved.
    Dislike of the SNP is entirely rational from an English POV

    They have been agitating for a break up of our Union whilst at the same time trying to do all they can to maximise subsidy of Scotland and interfere in English politics. It looks very, very ungrateful

    ‘Like Scotland; dislike the SNP’, is, I suspect the view of the majority of English voters.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,862
    edited August 4
    edit
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,396
    edited August 4

    Sean_F said:

    King Cole, it very much remains to be seen how the UK/EU situation will develop.

    Cameron's problem in that regard is that if things turn out ok in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement by backing Remain. If things turn out poorly in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement because he held the referendum.

    To his credit, he did respond with democratic choice to the rising tide of scepticism. Not his fault, but the time for a referendum was Lisbon (or earlier). The duplicity of Brown and Labour prevented that, which would've allowed the electorate to indicate their displeasure at ever more integration without leaving entirely.

    No, Cameron was elected to LEAD. If he believed in Remain, then he should have made a great deal more effort. If he believed Singapore-on-Thames was a daft idea he should have said so plainly.
    He didn’t. He was far more interested in shafting Nick Clegg and ensuring a Tory majority. Having done that he wasn’t sure what to do.
    It was difficult to make the case that the EU is crap, but on balance we'd still be worse off if we left (to be fair, that's a very widespread view, and certainly a reasonable one).
    By being smart, not quite shafting Nick Clegg, he'd have kept the hard right at bay and avoided the problem. Loyal Tories like Soames are now saying 'let's blow up Brexit'.

    One can argue that Eden, Douglas-Home and Brown were poor PMs but none of them caused the greatest constitutional crisis for 300 years. That's apparently what Dominic Grieve thinks, and I tend to defer to people like him, but R4 cut him off after he said this and didn't let him expand his argument.
    Arguably Blair is worse than Cameron in leading to Brexit it was his failure to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 which led to the rise of UKIP and hence demand for an EU referendum. Plus Blair launched the Iraq War which outweighs even Cameron's intervention in Libya in the rise in Islamic militancy it led to.

    Neither though are the worst PMs we have had since WW2 let alone Lord North, I would rank Eden, Heath, Callaghan and Brown worse than Blair and Cameron
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 12,004

    OT exotically-flavoured gins have now been joined on the shelves by exotically-flavoured (and priced) tonic water. You probably knew that but it surprised me, as a teetotaller.

    Though the fancy tonics are much cheaper than the fancy gins.

    The optimum pretension to cost ratio is to fill an empty bottle of fancy gin with supermarket own label gin and then mix it with ordinary tonic from a fancy tonic bottle.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,011

    HYUFD said:


    Mr. Divvie (2), if Scotland had left the UK by now, you'd be out of the EU and the remainder of the UK would be in. Which is quite ironic.

    Who knows? I don't think many people on here or anywhere else can be too proud of their EU predictions.

    At least even in that scenario we would be deciding for ourselves if we wanted to re-apply rather than having our EU status imposed on us. Still, one major prop of Project Fear I kicked away for evermore.
    I doubt most Scots are that bothered about the EU, they would be happy with a Norway style EEA membership, after all over a third of even SNP voters voted Leave.

    EEA mbership but not EU membership is where the UK most likely ends up in a decade anyway once immigration has been brought under control
    Question: does the UK Government need to issue separate notification of its intention to withdraw from the EEA, and if so has it got around to doing it?

    One advantage to ending up with some form of Norwayesque fudge is that it would infuriate the ultra-Leavers and the ultra-Remainers in equal measure, which can only be a good thing.
    Richard Tyndall would be happy!

    Incidentally, I haven’t seen him posting recently. Has he stopped?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,710
    edited August 4
    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    I'm quite impressed that you've already forgotten the six years Cameron spent as PM after the tenure of the worst PM of the post war era and second worst of all time.
    David Cameron crashed us out of the EU by mistake. By mistake! He almost broke up the United Kingdom. Cameron is, as Paxo had it, the worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    Give it 30 years for a view. All you’re talking is your politics, not objective history. This rushing to judgement and sweeping statement stuff is deeply tedious.

    To take an example from 30ish years ago, only now are we giving the Heath administration some objective analysis (I have a book of essays which purports to be a reassessment published perhaps 15 years ago - interesting but too early. Reading it now gives distance and some of it seems fairer).

    Edit- The Heath Government 1970 - 1974 edited by Ball and Selsdon, published 1996. Recommended.
    There is no comparison. Heath took Britain into Europe because that was government policy. He had fought for it all his political life. Whether you, I or Jacob Rees-Mogg thinks it right or wrong in hindsight is not the point.

    Cameron took us out again by mistake. That is why he is the worst prime minister since Lord North, and even he had the excuse of colonials taking potshots. Cameron did not want or intend Brexit, and nor was it forced upon him by external events. He was asleep at the wheel.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,396
    edited August 4

    HYUFD said:


    Mr. Divvie (2), if Scotland had left the UK by now, you'd be out of the EU and the remainder of the UK would be in. Which is quite ironic.

    Who knows? I don't think many people on here or anywhere else can be too proud of their EU predictions.

    At least even in that scenario we would be deciding for ourselves if we wanted to re-apply rather than having our EU status imposed on us. Still, one major prop of Project Fear I kicked away for evermore.
    I doubt most Scots are that bothered about the EU, they would be happy with a Norway style EEA membership, after all over a third of even SNP voters voted Leave.

    EEA mbership but not EU membership is where the UK most likely ends up in a decade anyway once immigration has been brought under control
    Question: does the UK Government need to issue separate notification of its intention to withdraw from the EEA, and if so has it got around to doing it?

    One advantage to ending up with some form of Norwayesque fudge is that it would infuriate the ultra-Leavers and the ultra-Remainers in equal measure, which can only be a good thing.
    Given Parliament has voted to Leave the EEA it already has and we cannot stay in the ERA post Brexit without free movement
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,685

    Do you think all that 'dislike' of the SNP (as irrational as the more extreme EUrophobia) would have suddenly switched off as these types saw one third of their land mass being snipped off their Britishness? I don't believe a kinder, gentler politics was ever on the agenda in any scenario, or in any other country as events have proved.

    This is supremely incoherent from Matthew Goodwin:

    "The nature of this national identity was the first in-built advantage for Leave. ‘Englishness,’ or feeling very strongly attached to the nation, became a key tributary of the Leave vote. Whereas 64 percent of people who felt ‘English not British’ saw Britain’s membership of the EU as a ‘bad thing,’ among those who felt ‘British not English’ this crashed to 28 percent. The more English people felt the more likely that they would support Brexit.

    "It was, therefore, no surprise when in later years most people simply never developed an affective attachment to the idea of European integration. The British had perhaps always been suspicious of power hierarchies that felt remote and lacking in democratic accountability. But they had also been wary of identities that claimed to supersede the nation."
    The ambiguities of English (the language) are great for shoring up this kind of self deception: the UK, a nation of nations, a country of countries, a unitary state where the largest constituent part is unable to think of itself as anything but a country while preferring to think of the smaller components as regions.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 23,429

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    May's ability to stall while the clock runs down to car-crash Brexit is not something to celebrate

    Indeed not. But look on the bright side, she may yet beat her predecessor to the title of worst PM of the post war era.
    I'm quite impressed that you've already forgotten the six years Cameron spent as PM after the tenure of the worst PM of the post war era and second worst of all time.
    David Cameron crashed us out of the EU by mistake. By mistake! He almost broke up the United Kingdom. Cameron is, as Paxo had it, the worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    Give it 30 years for a view. All you’re talking is your politics, not objective history. This rushing to judgement and sweeping statement stuff is deeply tedious.

    To take an example from 30ish years ago, only now are we giving the Heath administration some objective analysis (I have a book of essays which purports to be a reassessment published perhaps 15 years ago - interesting but too early. Reading it now gives distance and some of it seems fairer).

    Edit- The Heath Government 1970 - 1974 edited by Ball and Selsdon, published 1996. Recommended.
    There is no comparison. Heath took Britain into Europe because that was government policy. He had fought for it all his political life. Whether you, I or Jacob Rees-Mogg thinks it right or wrong in hindsight is not the point.

    Cameron took us out again by mistake. That is why he is the worst prime minister since Lord North, and even he had the excuse of colonials taking potshots. Cameron did not want or intend Brexit, and nor was it forced upon him by external events. He was asleep at the wheel.
    I do think a case can be made that Cameron did the right thing by allowing an unsustainable situation to blow itself up, even if he wasn't able to master the contradictions himself. The end result could be that we all live happily ever after in an arrangement that wouldn't have seemed plausible in 2010.
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