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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m expecting Boris to fail in his bid to be Theresa May’s

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited August 5 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m expecting Boris to fail in his bid to be Theresa May’s successor

Picture: ConHome next Tory leader polling from December 2015

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,984
    First, and thanks for the header, TSE.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    Second. A good piece Mr Eagles, although as always I shall point out that putting a cross next to one name on a ballot paper is nothing like AV. Keep laying Boris.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,267
    Looking at that ConHome poll from December 2015, of the top eight candidates only two of them actually stood in the next leadership contest.

    A deliberate mistake by @TheScreamingEagles?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    tlg86 said:

    Looking at that ConHome poll from December 2015, of the top eight candidates only two of them actually stood in the next leadership contest.

    A deliberate mistake by @TheScreamingEagles?

    Ha, good spot. May, Gove and Fox all stood.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,862
    Fourth, like Boris
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,966
    edited August 5
    tlg86 said:

    Looking at that ConHome poll from December 2015, of the top eight candidates only two of them actually stood in the next leadership contest.

    A deliberate mistake by @TheScreamingEagles?

    Oops. I keep on repressing that the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox actually stood in 2016.

    The man has no shame.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,267

    tlg86 said:

    Looking at that ConHome poll from December 2015, of the top eight candidates only two of them actually stood in the next leadership contest.

    A deliberate mistake by @TheScreamingEagles?

    Oops. I keep on repressing that the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox actually stood in 2016.

    The man has no shame.
    I thought that might be the case!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,862
    Absolutely agree with the lead. When our Mr HY wakes up he should read the first paragraph over and over. And the third. And the sixth.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,862
    Javid was doing well even back then.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,255
    edited August 5
    Boris is the Marmite candidate; you either love him or hate him. And I suspect his tenure as FS has increased the latter and decreased the former.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,026
    Agree entirely.

    The YouGov poll that showed a half percent Lab to Con swing if Boris replaced Mrs May was presented by many Boris Johnson fans as a sign that only their man can win the Tories the next election.

    Weren't polls with 'alternative to Mrs Thatcher' options showing double digit (or high single digit) leads for the alternatives before she got into serious trouble?

    At best these polls show Boris is no worse than a PM who is widely regarded as not great.....(at best)....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,494

    Boris is the Marmite candidate; you either love him or hate him. And I suspect his tenure as FS has increased the latter and decreased the former.

    Not necessarily. I quite like Boris as a person - his personality flaws are slightly endearing, and I think he can do a good job if he gets the right team in to do his work for him. But that doesn't mean I think he should be anywhere near the levers of power - and the Garden Bridge fiasco shows he is utterly unsuited for that sort of position.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,525
    Good morning, everyone.

    Boris would be a bloody awful leader. We must hope Mr. Eagles' prophetic powers exceed his historical comprehension.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,862

    Boris is the Marmite candidate; you either love him or hate him. And I suspect his tenure as FS has increased the latter and decreased the former.

    He began his political career very popular, and has been losing friends and gathering enemies ever since.

    He would galvanise the opposition, for sure.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,046

    Boris is the Marmite candidate; you either love him or hate him. And I suspect his tenure as FS has increased the latter and decreased the former.

    Not necessarily. I quite like Boris as a person - his personality flaws are slightly endearing, and I think he can do a good job if he gets the right team in to do his work for him. But that doesn't mean I think he should be anywhere near the levers of power - and the Garden Bridge fiasco shows he is utterly unsuited for that sort of position.
    Seem to recall that he also spent some time seriously pursuing the idea of building an airport in the Thames Estuary.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,525
    F1: Red Bull 2nd driver market watch, Gasly shortened a bit, Sainz out, now 1.5 and 2.87 respectively. Hartley's odds edged out from 13 to 15, Alonso's shortened from something like 51 to 34.

    For what it's worth, I still think that Gasly/Sainz are rightly favourites but the two outsiders that might be considered value are Raikkonen (29) and Alonso.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,255
    IanB2 said:

    Boris is the Marmite candidate; you either love him or hate him. And I suspect his tenure as FS has increased the latter and decreased the former.

    He began his political career very popular, and has been losing friends and gathering enemies ever since.

    He would galvanise the opposition, for sure.
    Boris has not only gathered enemies, he’s gathered critics, both of his ability and his character. Which may well be worse, electorally speaking.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 6,314
    Sandpit said:

    Second. A good piece Mr Eagles, although as always I shall point out that putting a cross next to one name on a ballot paper is nothing like AV. Keep laying Boris.

    ... except that the crosses are added up and the results treated rather like AV since the lowest rated candidate is eliminated.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,862

    Boris is the Marmite candidate; you either love him or hate him. And I suspect his tenure as FS has increased the latter and decreased the former.

    Not necessarily. I quite like Boris as a person - his personality flaws are slightly endearing, and I think he can do a good job if he gets the right team in to do his work for him. But that doesn't mean I think he should be anywhere near the levers of power - and the Garden Bridge fiasco shows he is utterly unsuited for that sort of position.
    Seem to recall that he also spent some time seriously pursuing the idea of building an airport in the Thames Estuary.
    As well as that and the abortive Garden Bridge, the cable car in East London cost a fortune and objectively didn't merit the money being spent on it, the 'new routemaster' also cost a fortune and hasn't delivered to the specification (funding for conductors was quickly withdrawn - entirely foreseeable, the key design feature of the open platform is never used between stops, and they are horrible places to be in hot weather), even the bike scheme (which wasn't his, originally) went over budget. Basically Boris likes the publicity around launching stuff but isn't actually prepared to manage anything. The job he really wants is of some sort of ceremonial president, without any responsibility.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,494

    Boris is the Marmite candidate; you either love him or hate him. And I suspect his tenure as FS has increased the latter and decreased the former.

    Not necessarily. I quite like Boris as a person - his personality flaws are slightly endearing, and I think he can do a good job if he gets the right team in to do his work for him. But that doesn't mean I think he should be anywhere near the levers of power - and the Garden Bridge fiasco shows he is utterly unsuited for that sort of position.
    Seem to recall that he also spent some time seriously pursuing the idea of building an airport in the Thames Estuary.
    I was actually in favour of that - though it was hardly a new idea, an airport beside or in the estuary having been proposed at various times for decades. It's also the only future-proofed option, but at a massive cost.

    More importantly, he did not spend tens of millions of London taxpayers' money on it, unlike the Garden Bridge. Damnation to everyone involved in that project.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,535
    edited August 5

    Boris is the Marmite candidate; you either love him or hate him. And I suspect his tenure as FS has increased the latter and decreased the former.

    Not necessarily. I quite like Boris as a person - his personality flaws are slightly endearing, and I think he can do a good job if he gets the right team in to do his work for him. But that doesn't mean I think he should be anywhere near the levers of power - and the Garden Bridge fiasco shows he is utterly unsuited for that sort of position.
    Seem to recall that he also spent some time seriously pursuing the idea of building an airport in the Thames Estuary.
    He is also well known for having troubles with porkies, not a good trait for a PM

    PS: Water Cannons WTF
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,862

    Boris is the Marmite candidate; you either love him or hate him. And I suspect his tenure as FS has increased the latter and decreased the former.

    Not necessarily. I quite like Boris as a person - his personality flaws are slightly endearing, and I think he can do a good job if he gets the right team in to do his work for him. But that doesn't mean I think he should be anywhere near the levers of power - and the Garden Bridge fiasco shows he is utterly unsuited for that sort of position.
    Seem to recall that he also spent some time seriously pursuing the idea of building an airport in the Thames Estuary.
    I was actually in favour of that - though it was hardly a new idea, an airport beside or in the estuary having been proposed at various times for decades. It's also the only future-proofed option, but at a massive cost.

    More importantly, he did not spend tens of millions of London taxpayers' money on it, unlike the Garden Bridge. Damnation to everyone involved in that project.
    I doubt all the consultants he employed working up the airport proposal came cheap.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,580

    Boris is the Marmite candidate; you either love him or hate him. And I suspect his tenure as FS has increased the latter and decreased the former.

    Why would you hate Boris?

    He’s not worth the emotional investment
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,862
    edited August 5
    malcolmg said:

    Boris is the Marmite candidate; you either love him or hate him. And I suspect his tenure as FS has increased the latter and decreased the former.

    Not necessarily. I quite like Boris as a person - his personality flaws are slightly endearing, and I think he can do a good job if he gets the right team in to do his work for him. But that doesn't mean I think he should be anywhere near the levers of power - and the Garden Bridge fiasco shows he is utterly unsuited for that sort of position.
    Seem to recall that he also spent some time seriously pursuing the idea of building an airport in the Thames Estuary.
    He is also well known for having troubles with porkies, not a good trait for a PM

    PS: Water Cannons WTF
    Yeah, I forgot the water cannons. At least that allowed Mrs May to demonstrate the beginnings of a sense of humour!

    The biggest problem however is that while he was chasing all these dream projects he was utterly uninterested in the bread and butter of running London, and took any attempts to hold him to account simply as opportunities to joke around. Everything is just a game to him, and every political decision simply another move to be judged solely against his personal self interest at the time.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,255
    Charles said:

    Boris is the Marmite candidate; you either love him or hate him. And I suspect his tenure as FS has increased the latter and decreased the former.

    Why would you hate Boris?

    He’s not worth the emotional investment
    LOL!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,494
    IanB2 said:

    Boris is the Marmite candidate; you either love him or hate him. And I suspect his tenure as FS has increased the latter and decreased the former.

    Not necessarily. I quite like Boris as a person - his personality flaws are slightly endearing, and I think he can do a good job if he gets the right team in to do his work for him. But that doesn't mean I think he should be anywhere near the levers of power - and the Garden Bridge fiasco shows he is utterly unsuited for that sort of position.
    Seem to recall that he also spent some time seriously pursuing the idea of building an airport in the Thames Estuary.
    I was actually in favour of that - though it was hardly a new idea, an airport beside or in the estuary having been proposed at various times for decades. It's also the only future-proofed option, but at a massive cost.

    More importantly, he did not spend tens of millions of London taxpayers' money on it, unlike the Garden Bridge. Damnation to everyone involved in that project.
    I doubt all the consultants he employed working up the airport proposal came cheap.
    I'm unaware he did that - I thought the proposals came straight from Halcrow and Fosters as a bit of a punt, rather than having been directed by Boris. But I could be wrong.

    And on the other hand, there was, and is, a need for more airport capacity in the SE. The concept of an estuary airport has been a longstanding one, and to properly evaluate it you would need to spend some money - as people did on all the other options as well, e.g. Gatwick and the two Heathrow schemes.

    Where the Garden Bridge differs is that there was no need, as was shown when Boris and others couldn't give a reason for its existence.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,695
    edited August 5
    An interesting piece Mr Eagles. Blow jobs, AV and opinion polls all in one!

    It's worth pointing out that this trait of 'voting for X to stop Y' isn't confined to the Tories. Foot won in 1980 largely because he wasn't Healey. A case could be made that one reason Ed won is because he wasn't his brother.

    I said in 2016 that if Boris stood he wouldn't win. I was right and his stock has fallen a long way since. I think he would even struggle to get nominated if Gove, Fox or Rees-Mogg stood (I'm not expecting JRM to, I think the others will - Fox is a sort of thick version of Ken Clarke when it comes to leadership contests).

    A more interesting question is whether he decides in light of that to flounce off and make millions from TV and writing and after dinner speaking, a la Portillo. He's clearly not in Parliament because he enjoys it or out of a sense of publicity service (as tbf the likes of Mogg and Corbyn are). If he realises his dream is not coming true, he might walk. The value bet for Boris is probably on a by-election in Uxbridge in 2019.

    Edit - the autocorrect typo was absolutely awesome, but made a nonsense of my comment. Clearly he's interested in 'publicity' services from Parliament!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,862

    IanB2 said:

    Boris is the Marmite candidate; you either love him or hate him. And I suspect his tenure as FS has increased the latter and decreased the former.

    Not necessarily. I quite like Boris as a person - his personality flaws are slightly endearing, and I think he can do a good job if he gets the right team in to do his work for him. But that doesn't mean I think he should be anywhere near the levers of power - and the Garden Bridge fiasco shows he is utterly unsuited for that sort of position.
    Seem to recall that he also spent some time seriously pursuing the idea of building an airport in the Thames Estuary.
    I was actually in favour of that - though it was hardly a new idea, an airport beside or in the estuary having been proposed at various times for decades. It's also the only future-proofed option, but at a massive cost.

    More importantly, he did not spend tens of millions of London taxpayers' money on it, unlike the Garden Bridge. Damnation to everyone involved in that project.
    I doubt all the consultants he employed working up the airport proposal came cheap.
    I'm unaware he did that - I thought the proposals came straight from Halcrow and Fosters as a bit of a punt, rather than having been directed by Boris. But I could be wrong.

    And on the other hand, there was, and is, a need for more airport capacity in the SE. The concept of an estuary airport has been a longstanding one, and to properly evaluate it you would need to spend some money - as people did on all the other options as well, e.g. Gatwick and the two Heathrow schemes.

    Where the Garden Bridge differs is that there was no need, as was shown when Boris and others couldn't give a reason for its existence.
    Yes, tbf you may be right on the consultants point. The time and money spent by the GLA itself was badged as its response to the Airports Commission consultation; the proposal came from elsewhere.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,130
    If it were not for the existence of *rubs eyes in disbelief* Jeremy fecking Corbyn as LOTO, I'd be more confident in saying that Boris will never be PM or even a minister. But these are very, very strange days, and my experience of Tory members is that they are very, very strange people.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,695
    edited August 5
    John_M said:

    If it were not for the existence of *rubs eyes in disbelief* Jeremy fecking Corbyn as LOTO, I'd be more confident in saying that Boris will never be PM or even a minister. But these are very, very strange days, and my experience of Tory members is that they are very, very strange people.

    If the Tories had the mind blowingly cretinous same leadership election system as Labour, he would be favourite, especially if only a proposer and seconded were required.

    They don't, so he isn't.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    edited August 5
    ydoethur said:
    Tom Watson is getting involved now as well, the story isn’t going away any time soon.

    What I don’t see is how it gets resolved - even if Corbyn was to resign or be no-confidenced by the PLP as he was in 2016, he’d be re-elected by the members who couldn’t care less about antisemitism. He’d need to fail to get the nominations from the MPs, does anyone think we are close to that stage yet?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,695
    edited August 5
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:
    Tom Watson is getting involved now as well, the story isn’t going away any time soon.

    What I don’t see is how it gets resolved - even if Corbyn was to resign or be no-confidences by the PLP as he was in 2016, he’d be re-elected by the members who couldn’t care less about antisemitism. He’d need to fail to get the nominations from the MPs, does anyone think we are close to that stage yet?
    No he wouldn't. As leader, he's automatically on the ballot unless he resigns in which case he's not eligible to stand anyway. That's how he survived two years ago.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,026
    ydoethur said:

    The value bet for Boris is probably on a by-election in Uxbridge in 2019.

    Agree. He will probably 'declare victory' at the end of March 2019 and declare his work in parliament done - before the really sticky ordure starts hitting the fan (and of which he would be a most deserving recipient).....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,715

    Sandpit said:

    Second. A good piece Mr Eagles, although as always I shall point out that putting a cross next to one name on a ballot paper is nothing like AV. Keep laying Boris.

    ... except that the crosses are added up and the results treated rather like AV since the lowest rated candidate is eliminated.
    While there are some resemblances to AV, being able to change your vote between rounds is an important difference and allows for all sorts of interesting gaming. In effect it is AV, but with knowledge of how others have voted. It is quite possible that the Tory Turkeys will vote for Christmas.



  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,665

    F1: Red Bull 2nd driver market watch, Gasly shortened a bit, Sainz out, now 1.5 and 2.87 respectively. Hartley's odds edged out from 13 to 15, Alonso's shortened from something like 51 to 34.

    For what it's worth, I still think that Gasly/Sainz are rightly favourites but the two outsiders that might be considered value are Raikkonen (29) and Alonso.

    Much as I’d like to see Alonso in an even half way competitive car, I think it most likely that Honda will veto him - unless he were to very publicly prostrate himself in apology for everything said over the last couple of years.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,379
    Are there fewer than 85 unhinged Conservative MPs? Because that is essentially the bet here.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 19,776
    TSE's pain of Osborne, leading on 22% back in those glory days, comes through loud and clear.

    Set against the header:

    1. The Conservative Party - members and MPs - are united in one thing: May cannot lead them into the next election.

    2. So someone else has to. But who, if not Boris? Nobody else has Boris's name recognition. Noody has the ability to draw in the politically unengaged like he can.

    3. He can pull of the not insubstantial trick of appearing to be an anti-politician, aloof from politics whilst still being part of it.

    4. He won the Brexit vote, something that would have been lost if fronted by Farage.

    5. And what other politician can do this?



    6. Or this?


  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,108

    TSE's pain of Osborne, leading on 22% back in those glory days, comes through loud and clear.

    Set against the header:

    1. The Conservative Party - members and MPs - are united in one thing: May cannot lead them into the next election.

    2. So someone else has to. But who, if not Boris? Nobody else has Boris's name recognition. Noody has the ability to draw in the politically unengaged like he can.

    3. He can pull of the not insubstantial trick of appearing to be an anti-politician, aloof from politics whilst still being part of it.

    4. He won the Brexit vote, something that would have been lost if fronted by Farage.

    5. And what other politician can do this?



    6. Or this?


    The British Trump? Or tired after 10yrs at the op?

    Either way we’re better off without him.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    edited August 5
    Nigelb said:

    F1: Red Bull 2nd driver market watch, Gasly shortened a bit, Sainz out, now 1.5 and 2.87 respectively. Hartley's odds edged out from 13 to 15, Alonso's shortened from something like 51 to 34.

    For what it's worth, I still think that Gasly/Sainz are rightly favourites but the two outsiders that might be considered value are Raikkonen (29) and Alonso.

    Much as I’d like to see Alonso in an even half way competitive car, I think it most likely that Honda will veto him - unless he were to very publicly prostrate himself in apology for everything said over the last couple of years.
    This is the first time in over a decade that RBR actually have to go and find a driver, rather than simply promoting from within their program. They first need to decide if they want an equal to Max, a clear #2, an up-and-coming driver or an older development driver to help with the Honda transition next year. If they go for the latter option then someone like Kubica would be a good bet. I can’t see it being Raikkonen, RBR can’t offer him what Ferrari are paying, ditto Alonso. Ricciardo’s move has certainly thrown the driver market wide open.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 19,776
    Jonathan said:

    TSE's pain of Osborne, leading on 22% back in those glory days, comes through loud and clear.

    Set against the header:

    1. The Conservative Party - members and MPs - are united in one thing: May cannot lead them into the next election.

    2. So someone else has to. But who, if not Boris? Nobody else has Boris's name recognition. Noody has the ability to draw in the politically unengaged like he can.

    3. He can pull of the not insubstantial trick of appearing to be an anti-politician, aloof from politics whilst still being part of it.

    4. He won the Brexit vote, something that would have been lost if fronted by Farage.

    5. And what other politician can do this?



    6. Or this?


    The British Trump? Or tired after 10yrs at the op?

    Either way we’re better off without him.
    10 yrs at the op?? Surely he goes privately, not NHS?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,525
    Mr. Sandpit, Red Bull could offer a two year deal, though (for Raikkonen).

    Kubica would likely have been taken on elsewhere if that were a credible move. The Red Bull seat, even as second fiddle, is a very attractive one, so pretty much whoever gets offered it (potentially excepting Raikkonen if he gets a multi-year offer from Ferrari) will go for it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,754
    edited August 5
    ydoethur said:
    I wouldn't say the article deserves a Wow!. It makes the point obliquely that what the anti semitism row is showing is that the party is crumbling because of Corbyn's failings as a leader

    But we knew that anyway. It was always going to come to the fore eventually. I was told by an MP involved in the mass resignations of 2016 that the reason for it wasn't the sacking of Benn or the bombing of Syria but that Corbyn was completely unable to function as a leader. He was hopelessly. The examples he gave were hilarious and tragic.


    The great irony is that the only thing no friend or foe could accuse him of -racism-is the thing that ultimately revealed his greatest failing
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,665
    RIP Barry Chuckle.

    An object lesson to our politicians in how to do something socially useful with god given idiocy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,665
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    F1: Red Bull 2nd driver market watch, Gasly shortened a bit, Sainz out, now 1.5 and 2.87 respectively. Hartley's odds edged out from 13 to 15, Alonso's shortened from something like 51 to 34.

    For what it's worth, I still think that Gasly/Sainz are rightly favourites but the two outsiders that might be considered value are Raikkonen (29) and Alonso.

    Much as I’d like to see Alonso in an even half way competitive car, I think it most likely that Honda will veto him - unless he were to very publicly prostrate himself in apology for everything said over the last couple of years.
    This is the first time in over a decade that RBR actually have to go and find a driver, rather than simply promoting from within their program. They first need to decide if they want an equal to Max, a clear #2, an up-and-coming driver or an older development driver to help with the Honda transition next year. If they go for the latter option then someone like Kubica would be a good bet. I can’t see it being Raikkonen, RBR can’t offer him what Ferrari are paying, ditto Alonso. Ricciardo’s move has certainly thrown the driver market wide open.
    Alonso would probably do it for free if the car were competitive.

  • Nigelb said:

    RIP Barry Chuckle.

    An object lesson to our politicians in how to do something socially useful with god given idiocy.

    Maybe he should have been given the job of negotiating our exit from the EU - he could barely have done any worse
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,494
    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:
    I wouldn't say the article deserves a Wow!. It makes the point obliquely that what the anti semitism row is showing is that the party is crumbling because of Corbyn's failings as a leader

    But we knew that anyway. It was always going to come to the fore eventually. I was told by an MP involved in the mass resignations of 2016 that the reason for it wasn't the sacking of Benn or the bombing of Syria but that Corbyn was completely unable to function as a leader. He was hopelessly. The examples he gave were hilarious and tragic.

    The great irony is that the only thing no friend or foe could accuse him of -racism-is the thing that ultimately revealed his greatest failing
    There's no irony: just because someone thinks of himself as anti-racist, does not make him so. IMV he has a conflict between his anti-racism and other deeply -held viewpoints - and that's why he's got into this mess.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    F1: Red Bull 2nd driver market watch, Gasly shortened a bit, Sainz out, now 1.5 and 2.87 respectively. Hartley's odds edged out from 13 to 15, Alonso's shortened from something like 51 to 34.

    For what it's worth, I still think that Gasly/Sainz are rightly favourites but the two outsiders that might be considered value are Raikkonen (29) and Alonso.

    Much as I’d like to see Alonso in an even half way competitive car, I think it most likely that Honda will veto him - unless he were to very publicly prostrate himself in apology for everything said over the last couple of years.
    This is the first time in over a decade that RBR actually have to go and find a driver, rather than simply promoting from within their program. They first need to decide if they want an equal to Max, a clear #2, an up-and-coming driver or an older development driver to help with the Honda transition next year. If they go for the latter option then someone like Kubica would be a good bet. I can’t see it being Raikkonen, RBR can’t offer him what Ferrari are paying, ditto Alonso. Ricciardo’s move has certainly thrown the driver market wide open.
    Alonso would probably do it for free if the car were competitive.

    If he was in with a serious shot at the title then maybe. I still think he’ll bugger off to the States, if he isn’t going to win the F1 title again then all that matters to him is the Indy 500.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,728

    TSE's pain of Osborne, leading on 22% back in those glory days, comes through loud and clear.

    Set against the header:

    1. The Conservative Party - members and MPs - are united in one thing: May cannot lead them into the next election.

    2. So someone else has to. But who, if not Boris? Nobody else has Boris's name recognition. Noody has the ability to draw in the politically unengaged like he can.

    3. He can pull of the not insubstantial trick of appearing to be an anti-politician, aloof from politics whilst still being part of it.

    4. He won the Brexit vote, something that would have been lost if fronted by Farage.

    5. And what other politician can do this?
    . . .

    Mayor of London too.
    Also he is definitely amusing, has things to say and can write an engaging, erudite and rhetorically persuasive piece for the press. He would be the Heineken candidate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,665

    Nigelb said:

    RIP Barry Chuckle.

    An object lesson to our politicians in how to do something socially useful with god given idiocy.

    Maybe he should have been given the job of negotiating our exit from the EU - he could barely have done any worse
    The ‘to me, to you...’ gag would have worked a treat.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,525
    Mr. B, the Chuckle Brothers also did a fantastic piece of PR, playing 'real life' Hitman as part of a marketing campaign a year or two ago. It's absolutely hilarious.

    At one point they have the disguised assassin pause mid-mission to bleed a radiator.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,202
    edited August 5
    Why Boris is unlikely to fail in his bid to succeed May

    1) Of course polls can change, Boris has led polls before, then trailed again and is now back leading them again. The whole reason for that is precisely that there will not be No Deal but the Chequers Deal instead, the Chequers Deal was the signal May is ready to cave to the EU for a withdrawal agreement and transition deal which is why Boris is leading again as most Leavers are furious at that and he opposes the Chequers Deal

    2) Boris did not stand last time as he was not suited to negotiate with the EU and MPs had decided May was best for that, next time though the MPs will not be choosing someone to negotiate with the EU on a Brexit deal but to beat Corbyn and Boris is easily the best choice for that

    3) The poll in question which had the Tories at 38% under Boris compared to 35% under Mogg and a terrible 30% for Gove and 29% for Javid and Hunt was brilliant for Boris as it showed only he of the alternative leaders to May would do any better than her against Corbyn given May trailed Corbyn by 1% while Boris tied Corbyn. Hence if the Tories are not going to replace May with Boris they may as well keep May as all other alternative leaders would be worse. Javid and Hunt are now Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary respectively too so the lack of name recognition argument for them cannot last much longer

    4) Tory MPs especially in marginal seats will at the end of the day want a leader who can save their seats and beat Corbyn, as long as Boris looks best able to do that in the polls he remains the likely next Tory leader

    5) Major only won as the 'Stop Heseltine' candidate as polling showed the Tories would beat Kinnock under his leadership as Heseltine would. No alternative Tory leader polled does as well against Corbyn as Boris.

    Hague and IDS only won as the 'Stop Clarke' candidates of Eurosceptics, Boris already is the candidate of Eurosceptics.

    6) Boris is tough enough to survive a brutal campaign e.g. if he twice beat Ken Livingstone to win the London Mayoralty and beat off everything the hard Left threw at him he will easily survive a Tory leadership contest especially when at the end of the day he has charisma which like Bill Clinton, Trump or Berlusconi helps them brush off any backstory issues
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,717
    edited August 5
    I think he will stand, that if he does he has a good though not certain chance of getting to the final two, and a great chance of winning if he gets that far.

    Nonetheless I think the points you raise, especially 1 and 2, do show that acting as though he will inevitably do so and be an inevitable success if he does, is misplaced and overly optimistic.

    I am far from convinced he woukd suffer a lot from no deal - he would probably get backed by no dealers and like Trump shrugs off reports of what he has said before - but just because some polling is in his favour does not mean the others have no shot. Any of them has one chance to reinvent themselves.

    Yes, he has a good shot. But he does have big negatives too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,695
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    RIP Barry Chuckle.

    An object lesson to our politicians in how to do something socially useful with god given idiocy.

    Maybe he should have been given the job of negotiating our exit from the EU - he could barely have done any worse
    The ‘to me, to you...’ gag would have worked a treat.
    Or 'oh dear.'
    'Oh dear oh dear.'
    'Oh dear oh dear oh dear.'

    Many happy childhood memories of watching Barry making a complete fool of himself while Paul made a worse one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,717

    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:
    I wouldn't say the article deserves a Wow!. It makes the point obliquely that what the anti semitism row is showing is that the party is crumbling because of Corbyn's failings as a leader

    But we knew that anyway. It was always going to come to the fore eventually. I was told by an MP involved in the mass resignations of 2016 that the reason for it wasn't the sacking of Benn or the bombing of Syria but that Corbyn was completely unable to function as a leader. He was hopelessly. The examples he gave were hilarious and tragic.

    The great irony is that the only thing no friend or foe could accuse him of -racism-is the thing that ultimately revealed his greatest failing
    There's no irony: just because someone thinks of himself as anti-racist, does not make him so. IMV he has a conflict between his anti-racism and other deeply -held viewpoints - and that's why he's got into this mess.
    Much more often than they think people are capable of passionately holding contradictory views. It leads to anger when that conflict pops up.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,525
    Mr. kle4, indeed. I remember reading of the surprising capacity people have for cognitive dissonance.

    Anyway, I must be off. RIP Barry Chuckle.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,202
    edited August 5
    IanB2 said:

    Boris is the Marmite candidate; you either love him or hate him. And I suspect his tenure as FS has increased the latter and decreased the former.

    He began his political career very popular, and has been losing friends and gathering enemies ever since.

    He would galvanise the opposition, for sure.
    Corbyn also galvanises the opposition but he also mobilised the left just as Boris would mobilise the right in a way no other Tory bar Mogg would be able to do
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,717
    Jonathan said:

    TSE's pain of Osborne, leading on 22% back in those glory days, comes through loud and clear.

    Set against the header:

    1. The Conservative Party - members and MPs - are united in one thing: May cannot lead them into the next election.

    2. So someone else has to. But who, if not Boris? Nobody else has Boris's name recognition. Noody has the ability to draw in the politically unengaged like he can.

    3. He can pull of the not insubstantial trick of appearing to be an anti-politician, aloof from politics whilst still being part of it.

    4. He won the Brexit vote, something that would have been lost if fronted by Farage.

    5. And what other politician can do this?



    6. Or this?


    The British Trump? Or tired after 10yrs at the op?

    Either way we’re better off without him.
    I think his time has come and gone, despite the positive polling he still gets there are plenty who used to buy no longer like him or think him suitable for the top job. His resignation letter was lame in its explanations so his communication powers may be fading, and he's had a good run.

  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,710
    Tomb me, tomb you. :'(
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,255
    HYUFD said:

    Why Boris is unlikely to fail in his bid to succeed May


    2) Boris did not stand last time as he was not suited to negotiate with the EU and MPs had decided May was best for that,

    That’s substantially different to the version of events I recall.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,202
    RIP Barry Chuckle too, remember the brothers well from my childhood days
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,481
    Great header TSE - one of your best!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,108
    Boris resembles Gordon Brown in his ambition for number 10. He also has that slight lack of the killer instinct. Expects and demands and does everything short of actually getting it.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,717

    HYUFD said:

    Why Boris is unlikely to fail in his bid to succeed May


    2) Boris did not stand last time as he was not suited to negotiate with the EU and MPs had decided May was best for that,

    That’s substantially different to the version of events I recall.
    And if it was the version of events it doesn't speak in his favour anyway - he wasn't suited to negotiate with the EU (and appatently he agreed as he did not stand) but he'd be perfect for the complicated development of the relationship moving forward, even as he shits on the deal May has negotiated with them?

    As I say I think he has a good shot, but I cannot understand the approach which treats his ability to help save tory seats as a certainty and that is key, since that is usually what is relied upon to explain why his many flaws are irrelevant to the MPS, since they won't risk their own seats.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,717

    Great header TSE - one of your best!

    Suck up :)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,665
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    RIP Barry Chuckle.

    An object lesson to our politicians in how to do something socially useful with god given idiocy.

    Maybe he should have been given the job of negotiating our exit from the EU - he could barely have done any worse
    The ‘to me, to you...’ gag would have worked a treat.
    Or 'oh dear.'
    'Oh dear oh dear.'
    'Oh dear oh dear oh dear.'

    Many happy childhood memories of watching Barry making a complete fool of himself while Paul made a worse one.
    They used to do the ‘to me’ gag after their shows when signing programs, which utterly delighted my four year old at the time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,695
    HYUFD said:


    2) Boris did not stand last time as he was not suited to negotiate with the EU and MPs had decided May was best for that, next time though the MPs will not be choosing someone to negotiate with the EU on a Brexit deal but to beat Corbyn and Boris is easily the best choice for that

    Total nonsense. He withdrew because with Gove standing as well he knew he would finish last and be humiliated.

    It may be that he did not stand because Gove decided he was unfit to negotiate with the EU, but to imply as you did that he made the decision of his own volition is to play fast and loose with the facts.

    I know you want the Conservatives to win the next election, but even if Boris was the man to do that - and he isn't - these kind of claims don't help your case.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:
    Tom Watson is getting involved now as well, the story isn’t going away any time soon.

    What I don’t see is how it gets resolved - even if Corbyn was to resign or be no-confidences by the PLP as he was in 2016, he’d be re-elected by the members who couldn’t care less about antisemitism. He’d need to fail to get the nominations from the MPs, does anyone think we are close to that stage yet?
    No he wouldn't. As leader, he's automatically on the ballot unless he resigns in which case he's not eligible to stand anyway. That's how he survived two years ago.
    Yes, having looked it up you’re right and I’m wrong. I had thought the argument was about whether JC was eligible having been no-confidenced, but it was actually about whether he was automatically on the ballot or needed nominations from MPs. Given that he doesn’t need re-nominating, I can see annual leadership contests until he decides to stand aside.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,717
    The Chuckle brothers are one of those acts that I recall very little of, only how much I enjoyed them as a child. I respect the hell out of them for still enjoying the work and doing it as long as they could.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,665
    This is at once astonishing, and completely unsurprising.....

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-trumps-washington/trumps-escalating-war-on-the-truth-is-on-purpose
    Only three members of Nixon’s enemies list are still alive. (Ron Dellums, a former member of Congress particularly loathed by Nixon for his anti-war protests and militant civil-rights activism, died on Monday.) I called one of them, Morton Halperin, to ask what he thought of the proliferating Trump-Nixon comparisons. Halperin, who oversaw the writing of the Pentagon Papers and then served on Nixon’s National Security Council staff before breaking with him over the invasion of Cambodia, sued when he found out that Nixon had secretly taped him and others in the White House. Over the years, he has been one of Nixon’s proudest and most persistent enemies. So I was surprised when Halperin insisted, strongly, that Nixon wasn’t nearly as damaging to the institution of the Presidency as Trump has been. “He’s far worse than Nixon,” Halperin told me, “certainly as a threat to the country.”
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,605
    edited August 5
    Quasi-AV?

    QUASI-AV????


    The system of voting is called the Exhaustive Ballot. It differs massively from AV in that you only get one vote per round, with AV you can rank the candidates in order of preference from the outset!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exhaustive_ballot
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,202
    Venezuelan President Maduro survives drone attack he blames on Columbia

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-45073385
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,717

    Quasi-AV?

    QUASI-AV????


    The syatem of voting is called the Exhaustive Ballot. It differs massively from AV in that you only get one vote per round, with AV you can rank the candidates in order of preference from the outset!

    You could make anything seem like anything else through use of 'quasi'. Very useful word.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,717
    HYUFD said:

    Venezuelan President Maduro survives drone attack he blames on Columbia

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-45073385

    Enjoying being a dictator is he?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,202
    Jonathan said:

    Boris resembles Gordon Brown in his ambition for number 10. He also has that slight lack of the killer instinct. Expects and demands and does everything short of actually getting it.

    No, May or Osborne more resemble Brown on that front.

    Boris has charisma, Brown did not
  • Indigo1Indigo1 Posts: 45
    Looks like political parties could save themselves a few quid the next time around...

  • mattmatt Posts: 1,983
    Jonathan said:

    Boris resembles Gordon Brown in his ambition for number 10. He also has that slight lack of the killer instinct. Expects and demands and does everything short of actually getting it.

    David Milliband perhaps instead? Similar competence levels as FS,
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,754
    geoffw said:

    TSE's pain of Osborne, leading on 22% back in those glory days, comes through loud and clear.

    Set against the header:

    1. The Conservative Party - members and MPs - are united in one thing: May cannot lead them into the next election.

    2. So someone else has to. But who, if not Boris? Nobody else has Boris's name recognition. Noody has the ability to draw in the politically unengaged like he can.

    3. He can pull of the not insubstantial trick of appearing to be an anti-politician, aloof from politics whilst still being part of it.

    4. He won the Brexit vote, something that would have been lost if fronted by Farage.

    5. And what other politician can do this?
    . . .

    Mayor of London too.
    Also he is definitely amusing, has things to say and can write an engaging, erudite and rhetorically persuasive piece for the press. He would be the Heineken candidate.
    The Carlsberg candidate. The worst leader in the world. 'Probably'

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,717
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris resembles Gordon Brown in his ambition for number 10. He also has that slight lack of the killer instinct. Expects and demands and does everything short of actually getting it.

    No, May or Osborne more resemble Brown on that front.

    Boris has charisma, Brown did not
    I really think you put far too much stock in the fact he has charisma. Yes, he does. It isn't the be all and end all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,202
    edited August 5
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:


    2) Boris did not stand last time as he was not suited to negotiate with the EU and MPs had decided May was best for that, next time though the MPs will not be choosing someone to negotiate with the EU on a Brexit deal but to beat Corbyn and Boris is easily the best choice for that

    Total nonsense. He withdrew because with Gove standing as well he knew he would finish last and be humiliated.

    It may be that he did not stand because Gove decided he was unfit to negotiate with the EU, but to imply as you did that he made the decision of his own volition is to play fast and loose with the facts.

    I know you want the Conservatives to win the next election, but even if Boris was the man to do that - and he isn't - these kind of claims don't help your case.
    Boris would have taken Leadsom's place in second with MPs had he stood in all likelihood, maybe even won the membership vote. Remember Leadsom only got second after Boris endorsed her and Leadsom beat Gove who came third. As Boris made clear at the time he did not feel he was the right man to lead the immediate post Brexit task of negotiating with the EU.

    However after May's relatively poor performance v Corbyn in 2017 Tory MPs will be looking for someone to beat Corbyn above all now if and when May goes and to sell post Brexit UK
  • mattmatt Posts: 1,983
    edited August 5
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:


    2) Boris did not stand last time as he was not suited to negotiate with the EU and MPs had decided May was best for that, next time though the MPs will not be choosing someone to negotiate with the EU on a Brexit deal but to beat Corbyn and Boris is easily the best choice for that

    Total nonsense. He withdrew because with Gove standing as well he knew he would finish last and be humiliated.

    It may be that he did not stand because Gove decided he was unfit to negotiate with the EU, but to imply as you did that he made the decision of his own volition is to play fast and loose with the facts.

    I know you want the Conservatives to win the next election, but even if Boris was the man to do that - and he isn't - these kind of claims don't help your case.
    The whole post is bollocks (unimaginative and derivative at that). It’s kind of you only to deconstruct on paragraph.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,553

    Great header TSE - one of your best!

    Wish fulfillment disguised as analysis. We get that you suddenly love May and hate anyone who is actually pro Brexit. But what has not been addressed is exactly who else is going to win? Thinking that Brexit will not be the most important factor in a leadership contest is naive - the polls clearly show that whoever is most pro-Brexit is in the lead. Boris is not ideal, but who else can win? Tory members are never going to allow another May situation to develop, a Remainer pretending to be a Leaver, so Javid and Hunt are toast in the membership vote. So it falls back on the idea that somehow MPs will endeavour to deliver two remainers to the membership, despite the fact that almost half the MPs are leavers. This is fanciful in my opinion - the leadership contest is simply too dynamic for MPs to ‘rig’ in this way. The leave MPs will simply use the multi-round system to coalesce around the best leave candidate.

    The other issue that is forgotten is that we have now had three PMs in a row who basically had no political vision and just promoted their benefits as administrators. Boris, if he stands, will have a positive vision to sell of an independent and confident nation. What vision are Javid and Hunt etc going to sell? They have no discernible set of principles or vision. Their campaigns will purely be built on the fact that the are OK at their jobs and not terribly unpopular. But as the polls don’t show that they will be more successful at beating Labour than Boris, it is not a useful pitch for Tory MPs.

    Tory MPs will vote for whoever is most popular with the voters. That will probably be Boris. If he stands and doesn’t implode again the chances he does not make the final two are low. I think the public will rally to a vision in the next contest and MPs will follow the public.

    The real question is whether he tries to get rid of May before she sells out to the EU. If he goes for her early and gets a contest he is far more likely to win than if he waits until mid 2019. Personally, I think there will be a contest this year and that May will lose, or resign.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,717
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:


    2) Boris did not stand last time as he was not suited to negotiate with the EU and MPs had decided May was best for that, next time though the MPs will not be choosing someone to negotiate with the EU on a Brexit deal but to beat Corbyn and Boris is easily the best choice for that

    Total nonsense. He withdrew because with Gove standing as well he knew he would finish last and be humiliated.

    It may be that he did not stand because Gove decided he was unfit to negotiate with the EU, but to imply as you did that he made the decision of his own volition is to play fast and loose with the facts.

    I know you want the Conservatives to win the next election, but even if Boris was the man to do that - and he isn't - these kind of claims don't help your case.
    As Boris made clear at the time he did not feel he was the right man to lead the immediate post Brexit task of negotiating with the EU.

    Really taking him at his word a bit too much there. Why did he think that? It never stopped him leaking against the person who was doing the job. Does it not occur to you that Gove's action played a big factor in him 'deciding' that. Does it not occur to you that if he was not the right man for that, why would he be the right man for the next phase as well?

    Your argument seems to come down to how we the country should be lucky to be led by this charismatic stallion of a man, when he deigns to take up the role at his pleasure, even though he said he wasn't up to it during an even more crucial part. It's not the same as some others not standing, since unlike then Boris was widely expected to.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,314
    edited August 5
    All that matters is whether at least a third of Tory MPS will vote for Boris. If they do, the members will chose him.

    Most contributors here don't want Boris to be next Tory leader and most comments are explanations of why they feel that way. The comments are irrelevant to the probability that in fact he will be elected leader.

    HYUFD explains downthread explains why at least a third of Tory MPs will vote for him. Summary: he's the best chance they've got.

    At 6/1 against on Betfair, his odds are too long. I certainly wouldn't be laying him at those odds. Those who do are following their heart not their head.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 628
    Boris last attempt at the leadership ended in farce and exposed the fragility of his ego... he didn’t even make the starting line. However, soundings over the weekend confirm what @HYUFD is saying... activists are being told to shut up whilst May gets it “over the line” on March 29th after which it’s game on to campaign for what should happen during the transition period, including g one assumes a change of leader
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,710

    Great header TSE - one of your best!

    Wish fulfillment disguised as analysis. We get that you suddenly love May and hate anyone who is actually pro Brexit. But what has not been addressed is exactly who else is going to win? Thinking that Brexit will not be the most important factor in a leadership contest is naive - the polls clearly show that whoever is most pro-Brexit is in the lead. Boris is not ideal, but who else can win? Tory members are never going to allow another May situation to develop, a Remainer pretending to be a Leaver, so Javid and Hunt are toast in the membership vote. So it falls back on the idea that somehow MPs will endeavour to deliver two remainers to the membership, despite the fact that almost half the MPs are leavers. This is fanciful in my opinion - the leadership contest is simply too dynamic for MPs to ‘rig’ in this way. The leave MPs will simply use the multi-round system to coalesce around the best leave candidate.

    The other issue that is forgotten is that we have now had three PMs in a row who basically had no political vision and just promoted their benefits as administrators. Boris, if he stands, will have a positive vision to sell of an independent and confident nation. What vision are Javid and Hunt etc going to sell? They have no discernible set of principles or vision. Their campaigns will purely be built on the fact that the are OK at their jobs and not terribly unpopular. But as the polls don’t show that they will be more successful at beating Labour than Boris, it is not a useful pitch for Tory MPs.

    Tory MPs will vote for whoever is most popular with the voters. That will probably be Boris. If he stands and doesn’t implode again the chances he does not make the final two are low. I think the public will rally to a vision in the next contest and MPs will follow the public.

    The real question is whether he tries to get rid of May before she sells out to the EU. If he goes for her early and gets a contest he is far more likely to win than if he waits until mid 2019. Personally, I think there will be a contest this year and that May will lose, or resign.
    What we really need is a proven competent administrator with vision and passion. Look to my profile picture for inspiration.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,717
    Rexel56 said:

    Boris last attempt at the leadership ended in farce and exposed the fragility of his ego... he didn’t even make the starting line. However, soundings over the weekend confirm what @HYUFD is saying... activists are being told to shut up whilst May gets it “over the line” on March 29th after which it’s game on to campaign for what should happen during the transition period, including g one assumes a change of leader

    Yes, that is likely (assuming a deal to get over the line can be had, which seems doubtful, since future contenders like Boris will probably need to say the deal is crap and how can they then back it), and Boris has been maneuvering himself for it. But he has the same problems as before, only more so. He does still have his positives. But if the time wasn't right last time for him, for all manner of reasons, there's certainly no guarantee the time will be right for him next time either.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 1,021
    Indigo1 said:

    Looks like political parties could save themselves a few quid the next time around...

    But the point of campaign contact is not to influence the choice. It is to find out who your supporters are and then get as many of them out to vote as possible.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris resembles Gordon Brown in his ambition for number 10. He also has that slight lack of the killer instinct. Expects and demands and does everything short of actually getting it.

    No, May or Osborne more resemble Brown on that front.

    Boris has charisma, Brown did not
    I really think you put far too much stock in the fact he has charisma. Yes, he does. It isn't the be all and end all.
    I think we also need to look at why he decided against standing last time. Was it simply that he thought he’d be beaten by Gove, or was there something else that might have come out in the campaign to scupper his chances? We all know there’s plenty of skeletons in his closet, and the UK isn’t Italy or the US when it comes to ignoring these things when it suits.

    Also the same question about Chuka Umunna, who decided not to stand for the Lab leadership a week after he’d announced he was standing in 2015. (He’s since got married).
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,747
    Scott_P said:
    Maybe in an alternative universe,,,
  • Acorn_AntiquesAcorn_Antiques Posts: 196
    edited August 5

    Great header TSE - one of your best!

    snip

    Tory MPs will vote for whoever is most popular with the voters. That will probably be Boris. If he stands and doesn’t implode again the chances he does not make the final two are low. I think the public will rally to a vision in the next contest and MPs will follow the public.

    The real question is whether he tries to get rid of May before she sells out to the EU. If he goes for her early and gets a contest he is far more likely to win than if he waits until mid 2019. Personally, I think there will be a contest this year and that May will lose, or resign.
    My instinct (usual health warning applies: I have the predictive success rate of Mystic Meg) is that May won't be replaced until after next March - absent an agreed candidate and Brexit position, MPs will use her as a lightning rod for discontent with the outcome before throwing her away - and that the final two in the leadership contest will end up being a Remainer, and a Leaver whom (a) hasn't been contaminated by association with Chequers, and (b) is someone whom some Remainers at least can live with. This rules out, at the very least, Boris, Gove and the other senior Vote Leave leaders.

    A contest between a Remainer and a Leaver only has one likely winner because of the predilections of the membership, so I think that the next PM will probably be a committed Leaver of the second rank: not widely known to the public, and from outside of the Cabinet. One or two names spring to mind. But we shall see.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,255
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris resembles Gordon Brown in his ambition for number 10. He also has that slight lack of the killer instinct. Expects and demands and does everything short of actually getting it.

    No, May or Osborne more resemble Brown on that front.

    Boris has charisma, Brown did not
    I really think you put far too much stock in the fact he has charisma. Yes, he does. It isn't the be all and end all.
    I think we also need to look at why he decided against standing last time. Was it simply that he thought he’d be beaten by Gove, or was there something else that might have come out in the campaign to scupper his chances? We all know there’s plenty of skeletons in his closet, and the UK isn’t Italy or the US when it comes to ignoring these things when it suits.

    Also the same question about Chuka Umunna, who decided not to stand for the Lab leadership a week after he’d announced he was standing in 2015. (He’s since got married).
    The amount of time people have spent trying to rubbish Boris surely there can’t be much in his cupboard still to be dragged out.
  • Indigo1Indigo1 Posts: 45
    kle4 said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Boris last attempt at the leadership ended in farce and exposed the fragility of his ego... he didn’t even make the starting line. However, soundings over the weekend confirm what @HYUFD is saying... activists are being told to shut up whilst May gets it “over the line” on March 29th after which it’s game on to campaign for what should happen during the transition period, including g one assumes a change of leader

    Yes, that is likely (assuming a deal to get over the line can be had, which seems doubtful, since future contenders like Boris will probably need to say the deal is crap and how can they then back it), and Boris has been maneuvering himself for it. But he has the same problems as before, only more so. He does still have his positives. But if the time wasn't right last time for him, for all manner of reasons, there's certainly no guarantee the time will be right for him next time either.
    What is there to get over the line ? Barnier just jumped up and down on the torn up shreds of the Chequers offer, and Macron just told her to piss off when she tried to go over Barnier's head. The Chequers offer is dead, and in September Tory MPs are going to come back from their constituencies having had a month of ear bashing from their constituency associations and from mailbags and surgeries to tell her there isn't the faintest stomach for it in the voluntary party or much of the electorate.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,881

    Majority of Germans want to bring back military service

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article180588522/Umfrage-Mehrheit-der-Deutschen-fuer-Wiedereinfuehrung-der-Wehrpflicht.html

    that should cheer the neighbours up
  • Indigo1Indigo1 Posts: 45

    Indigo1 said:

    Looks like political parties could save themselves a few quid the next time around...

    But the point of campaign contact is not to influence the choice. It is to find out who your supporters are and then get as many of them out to vote as possible.
    ... and the advertising.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,202
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris resembles Gordon Brown in his ambition for number 10. He also has that slight lack of the killer instinct. Expects and demands and does everything short of actually getting it.

    No, May or Osborne more resemble Brown on that front.

    Boris has charisma, Brown did not
    I really think you put far too much stock in the fact he has charisma. Yes, he does. It isn't the be all and end all.
    I think we also need to look at why he decided against standing last time. Was it simply that he thought he’d be beaten by Gove, or was there something else that might have come out in the campaign to scupper his chances? We all know there’s plenty of skeletons in his closet, and the UK isn’t Italy or the US when it comes to ignoring these things when it suits.

    Also the same question about Chuka Umunna, who decided not to stand for the Lab leadership a week after he’d announced he was standing in 2015. (He’s since got married).
    'Scandals' don't matter if you have charisma. And for those who say we are more prudish than the US or Italy who elected Bill Clinton, Trump and Berlusconi I just point you to the late Alan Clark who despite what he called 'a cupboard full of skeletons' was elected to Parliament multiple times.

    I doubt Boris or Umunna should worry, indeed I would not be surprised if they are our next two PMs
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,717
    Indigo1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Boris last attempt at the leadership ended in farce and exposed the fragility of his ego... he didn’t even make the starting line. However, soundings over the weekend confirm what @HYUFD is saying... activists are being told to shut up whilst May gets it “over the line” on March 29th after which it’s game on to campaign for what should happen during the transition period, including g one assumes a change of leader

    Yes, that is likely (assuming a deal to get over the line can be had, which seems doubtful, since future contenders like Boris will probably need to say the deal is crap and how can they then back it), and Boris has been maneuvering himself for it. But he has the same problems as before, only more so. He does still have his positives. But if the time wasn't right last time for him, for all manner of reasons, there's certainly no guarantee the time will be right for him next time either.
    What is there to get over the line ? Barnier just jumped up and down on the torn up shreds of the Chequers offer, and Macron just told her to piss off when she tried to go over Barnier's head. The Chequers offer is dead, and in September Tory MPs are going to come back from their constituencies having had a month of ear bashing from their constituency associations and from mailbags and surgeries to tell her there isn't the faintest stomach for it in the voluntary party or much of the electorate.
    I agree (though I am not happy about it). That's why I don't understand why people like Boris, who supposedly want a better deal, not no deal, did not force a vote of no confidence in May. Her deal is dead, she cannot bend to make it easier to sell to the EU since she already cannot sell it to her own MPs and party, so why are they wasting the summer?

    I won't respect those MPs calling for May to come when they come back from the summer - they knew the score, many were on record saying her deal was not only bad, but unacceptable, and anything she might get from the EU will by definition be worse as the EU will have demanded further concessions. Therefore there is no reason, if they cannot support it, to not have provoked a challenge already, and if someone like Boris later says he could have gotten a better deal I will call him what he is, a liar and a coward, since he hasn't attempted to remove May so that he can try. Ok he might not succeed, but if she is wasting her time on a crap deal, do something about it. And quitting the Cabinet wasn't doing something about it, since that only affects his positioning for a leadership contest in future, it was about saving his own arse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,202
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:


    2) Boris did not stand last time as he was not suited to negotiate with the EU and MPs had decided May was best for that, next time though the MPs will not be choosing someone to negotiate with the EU on a Brexit deal but to beat Corbyn and Boris is easily the best choice for that

    Total nonsense. He withdrew because with Gove standing as well he knew he would finish last and be humiliated.

    It may be that he did not stand because Gove decided he was unfit to negotiate with the EU, but to imply as you did that he made the decision of his own volition is to play fast and loose with the facts.

    I know you want the Conservatives to win the next election, but even if Boris was the man to do that - and he isn't - these kind of claims don't help your case.
    As Boris made clear at the time he did not feel he was the right man to lead the immediate post Brexit task of negotiating with the EU.

    Really taking him at his word a bit too much there. Why did he think that? It never stopped him leaking against the person who was doing the job. Does it not occur to you that Gove's action played a big factor in him 'deciding' that. Does it not occur to you that if he was not the right man for that, why would he be the right man for the next phase as well?

    Your argument seems to come down to how we the country should be lucky to be led by this charismatic stallion of a man, when he deigns to take up the role at his pleasure, even though he said he wasn't up to it during an even more crucial part. It's not the same as some others not standing, since unlike then Boris was widely expected to.
    At the end of the day Tories should be concerned about one thing and one thing only, beating Corbyn.

    All the evidence is Boris is best to do that and if he does not lead the Tories at the next general election the likelihood of a Corbyn premiership is increased
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,553
    kle4 said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Boris last attempt at the leadership ended in farce and exposed the fragility of his ego... he didn’t even make the starting line. However, soundings over the weekend confirm what @HYUFD is saying... activists are being told to shut up whilst May gets it “over the line” on March 29th after which it’s game on to campaign for what should happen during the transition period, including g one assumes a change of leader

    Yes, that is likely (assuming a deal to get over the line can be had, which seems doubtful, since future contenders like Boris will probably need to say the deal is crap and how can they then back it), and Boris has been maneuvering himself for it. But he has the same problems as before, only more so. He does still have his positives. But if the time wasn't right last time for him, for all manner of reasons, there's certainly no guarantee the time will be right for him next time either.
    I don’t think the idea that everyone will wait until after the withdrawal agreement for a contest makes sense. Firstly May will concede an NI backstop - this basically makes any fix after Brexit impossible (that is the point). Secondly by giving up the money with nothing in return no new leader has cards to play with the EU in transition. If May does manage to do a sellout withdrawal agreement with no clear direction after transition I don’t think there is much an incoming Leaver could do to rescue the situation. All the cards would have been thrown away and we will be locked into a legal backstop that will make a real FTA impossible. Why would anyone bother at that point. If someone is really committed to Brexit they will have to stop May, or vote down her deal.

    Chequers is not going to be approved by the EU. People are skipping the bit about how May can deal with that and still stay in office. On what basis will she be able to back down when she has said this is the limit? She will go, or be kicked out. Everyone said no leavers would stand up to her over Chequers and that did not exactly go as planned.
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