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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m expecting Boris to fail in his bid to be Theresa May’s

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,715
    Indigo1 said:

    Looks like political parties could save themselves a few quid the next time around...

    https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/964163240380063747

    In very close races actually campaign contact can make all the difference, espevially in getting voters to the polls.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,715
    Barnesian said:

    All that matters is whether at least a third of Tory MPS will vote for Boris. If they do, the members will chose him.

    Most contributors here don't want Boris to be next Tory leader and most comments are explanations of why they feel that way. The comments are irrelevant to the probability that in fact he will be elected leader.

    HYUFD explains downthread explains why at least a third of Tory MPs will vote for him. Summary: he's the best chance they've got.

    At 6/1 against on Betfair, his odds are too long. I certainly wouldn't be laying him at those odds. Those who do are following their heart not their head.

    Agreed
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Entertaining header Eagle. I hope you're right. My worry is that the Tories have a poor record when wise judgement is called for. However reading your check list I can think of only one candidate who fulfills all the criteria and with the backbone to face the brutality of the selection process.....

    ........I give you Iain Duncan Smith
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    edited August 2018
    kle4 said:



    I agree (though I am not happy about it). That's why I don't understand why people like Boris, who supposedly want a better deal, not no deal, did not force a vote of no confidence in May. Her deal is dead, she cannot bend to make it easier to sell to the EU since she already cannot sell it to her own MPs and party, so why are they wasting the summer?

    I won't respect those MPs calling for May to come when they come back from the summer - they knew the score, many were on record saying her deal was not only bad, but unacceptable, and anything she might get from the EU will by definition be worse as the EU will have demanded further concessions. Therefore there is no reason, if they cannot support it, to not have provoked a challenge already, and if someone like Boris later says he could have gotten a better deal I will call him what he is, a liar and a coward, since he hasn't attempted to remove May so that he can try. Ok he might not succeed, but if she is wasting her time on a crap deal, do something about it. And quitting the Cabinet wasn't doing something about it, since that only affects his positioning for a leadership contest in future, it was about saving his own arse.

    Come on, this is obvious. The leavers wanted Barnier to tear her deal apart, then they can come in and strike. Makes perfect sense to let Chequers implode on its own before killing the author.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Roger said:

    Entertaining header Eagle. I hope you're right. My worry is that the Tories have a poor record when wise judgement is called for. However reading your check list I can think of only one candidate who fulfills all the criteria and with the backbone to face the brutality of the selection process.....

    ........I give you Iain Duncan Smith

    Anna Soubry would sort out the idiot males in the Tory party
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,715

    Roger said:

    Entertaining header Eagle. I hope you're right. My worry is that the Tories have a poor record when wise judgement is called for. However reading your check list I can think of only one candidate who fulfills all the criteria and with the backbone to face the brutality of the selection process.....

    ........I give you Iain Duncan Smith

    Anna Soubry would sort out the idiot males in the Tory party
    And see the Tories come third behind UKIP
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Roger said:



    ........I give you Iain Duncan Smith

    I raise you Jeremy Corbyn.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    I agree with the comment down thread. Boris too long at 6.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    kle4 said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Boris last attempt at the leadership ended in farce and exposed the fragility of his ego... he didn’t even make the starting line. However, soundings over the weekend confirm what @HYUFD is saying... activists are being told to shut up whilst May gets it “over the line” on March 29th after which it’s game on to campaign for what should happen during the transition period, including g one assumes a change of leader

    Yes, that is likely (assuming a deal to get over the line can be had, which seems doubtful, since future contenders like Boris will probably need to say the deal is crap and how can they then back it), and Boris has been maneuvering himself for it. But he has the same problems as before, only more so. He does still have his positives. But if the time wasn't right last time for him, for all manner of reasons, there's certainly no guarantee the time will be right for him next time either.
    I don’t think the idea that everyone will wait until after the withdrawal agreement for a contest makes sense. Firstly May will concede an NI backstop - this basically makes any fix after Brexit impossible (that is the point). Secondly by giving up the money with nothing in return no new leader has cards to play with the EU in transition. If May does manage to do a sellout withdrawal agreement with no clear direction after transition I don’t think there is much an incoming Leaver could do to rescue the situation. All the cards would have been thrown away and we will be locked into a legal backstop that will make a real FTA impossible. Why would anyone bother at that point. If someone is really committed to Brexit they will have to stop May, or vote down her deal.

    Chequers is not going to be approved by the EU. People are skipping the bit about how May can deal with that and still stay in office. On what basis will she be able to back down when she has said this is the limit? She will go, or be kicked out. Everyone said no leavers would stand up to her over Chequers and that did not exactly go as planned.
    A good explanation of the position of a hard Brexiteer. It makes sense from that point of view. But a hard Brexit (or a no deal) does not have the numbers in Parliament.

    I suspect many Brexiteers are concerned that Brexit is losing momentum, that there is a growing chance of a second referendum and staying in, and that anything that gets us over the line on 29 March next year (even a BINO) is preferable to that. So they will support May. I think there are more of this type of Brexiteer among Tory MPs than the hard type.



  • Excellent thread TSE - Boris is a no-no.

    And to get AV and Reckless in the piece too.... great effort.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    edited August 2018

    Excellent thread TSE - Boris is a no-no.

    And to get AV and Reckless in the piece too.... great effort.

    [sigh] E X H A U S T I V E
    B A L L O T
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,715
    Indigo1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Boris last attempt at the leadership ended in farce and exposed the fragility of his ego... he didn’t even make the starting line. However, soundings over the weekend confirm what @HYUFD is saying... activists are being told to shut up whilst May gets it “over the line” on March 29th after which it’s game on to campaign for what should happen during the transition period, including g one assumes a change of leader

    Yes, that is likely (assuming a deal to get over the line can be had, which seems doubtful, since future contenders like Boris will probably need to say the deal is crap and how can they then back it), and Boris has been maneuvering himself for it. But he has the same problems as before, only more so. He does still have his positives. But if the time wasn't right last time for him, for all manner of reasons, there's certainly no guarantee the time will be right for him next time either.
    What is there to get over the line ? Barnier just jumped up and down on the torn up shreds of the Chequers offer, and Macron just told her to piss off when she tried to go over Barnier's head. The Chequers offer is dead, and in September Tory MPs are going to come back from their constituencies having had a month of ear bashing from their constituency associations and from mailbags and surgeries to tell her there isn't the faintest stomach for it in the voluntary party or much of the electorate.
    Actually Barnier said he could work with the Chequers Deal, the only thing he and the EU are holding put for is more regulatory alignment on services to match the regulatory alignment May has already proposed on goods
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,715

    Excellent thread TSE - Boris is a no-no.

    And to get AV and Reckless in the piece too.... great effort.

    If Boris is a no-no then on current polling Corbyn is a yes-yes
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    That would be consistent with the Brexit ultras in the local constituency here now biding their time until after March 2019... some of them were Corbyn three-quidders so understand the notion of an insurgency...
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited August 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Excellent thread TSE - Boris is a no-no.

    And to get AV and Reckless in the piece too.... great effort.

    If Boris is a no-no then on current polling Corbyn is a yes-yes
    Both bad, as far as I am concerned. But I think one would be even worse than the other.

    You Tories must have somebody who is half decent.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,777
    What do we want in a leader? The obvious answer is leadership. Leadership involves having a clear idea of where you are wanting to go, the ability to express that idea in a persuasive way so as to bring others along with you, the managerial skill to deliver that idea and the judgment to realise when things are going wrong and need to change.

    Very few, if any, leaders score high on all these points. Probably Abraham Lincoln. Possibly FDR. Arguably Pitt the Younger.

    On the present political scene you are looking for someone who can trouble the scorers at all. May, for example, gets 0/5, 0/5, 1/5, 0/5 on a good day. Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Boris, in my view, gets 1/5, 2/5 0/5 and 0/5. Not great but the alternatives are not scoring well either. His time as FS was disastrous highlighting his complete lack of managerial skill and judgment. That really should rule him out but someone is going to win this race and the handicapping (self inflicted) is severe.

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited August 2018
    PClipp said:


    You Tories must have somebody who is half decent.

    That's a weird assumption to make.

    But they do. Sajid Javid looks like a value bet to me.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    DavidL said:


    Boris, in my view, gets 1/5, 2/5 0/5 and 0/5. Not great but the alternatives are not scoring well either. His time as FS was disastrous highlighting his complete lack of managerial skill and judgment. That really should rule him out but someone is going to win this race and the handicapping (self inflicted) is severe.

    He has demonstrated himself to possess both extreme political cowardice and laziness.

    I don't truly believe the Tories are mad enough to put someone like that in charge but parties can do stupid, stupid things.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Rexel56 said:

    That would be consistent with the Brexit ultras in the local constituency here now biding their time until after March 2019... some of them were Corbyn three-quidders so understand the notion of an insurgency...
    Commies to left of me
    Fascists to right
    I'll stick in the middle with EU

    [fx: sound of coat being retrieved and hat going on head]
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,777

    DavidL said:


    Boris, in my view, gets 1/5, 2/5 0/5 and 0/5. Not great but the alternatives are not scoring well either. His time as FS was disastrous highlighting his complete lack of managerial skill and judgment. That really should rule him out but someone is going to win this race and the handicapping (self inflicted) is severe.

    He has demonstrated himself to possess both extreme political cowardice and laziness.

    I don't truly believe the Tories are mad enough to put someone like that in charge but parties can do stupid, stupid things.
    Well yes, IDS and Corbyn come to mind. But I agree with you that Javid looks the obvious and rational candidate at the moment. Probably means he has no chance.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I simply don't know. I have him in the book at ~ 0. @Barnesian or TSE might be right. This isn't nearly as clear a lay as Rees Mogg was/is
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,715
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:


    Boris, in my view, gets 1/5, 2/5 0/5 and 0/5. Not great but the alternatives are not scoring well either. His time as FS was disastrous highlighting his complete lack of managerial skill and judgment. That really should rule him out but someone is going to win this race and the handicapping (self inflicted) is severe.

    He has demonstrated himself to possess both extreme political cowardice and laziness.

    I don't truly believe the Tories are mad enough to put someone like that in charge but parties can do stupid, stupid things.
    Well yes, IDS and Corbyn come to mind. But I agree with you that Javid looks the obvious and rational candidate at the moment. Probably means he has no chance.
    Except a Javid led Tories trailed Corbyn Labour by 11% in the last Yougov while a Boris led Tories tied Corbyn Labour.

    If Javid wants to be leader he needs to improve his polling against Corbyn and now he is Home Secretary he cannot use the name recognition excuse much longer
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,715
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    Excellent thread TSE - Boris is a no-no.

    And to get AV and Reckless in the piece too.... great effort.

    If Boris is a no-no then on current polling Corbyn is a yes-yes
    Both bad, as far as I am concerned. But I think one would be even worse than the other.

    You Tories must have somebody who is half decent.
    We are heading for a Boris v Corbyn next general election bar some rapid poll improvements by someone else
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I have cashed out of the Next Con Leader market. I will treasure my two pounds fifty pence profit dearly.

    Technically if any of the absurd long odds candidates get in then I make 17 pounds! But I don't think Ken Clarke will do it to be honest.
  • Rexel56 said:

    That would be consistent with the Brexit ultras in the local constituency here now biding their time until after March 2019... some of them were Corbyn three-quidders so understand the notion of an insurgency...
    Commies to left of me
    Fascists to right
    I'll stick in the middle with EU

    [fx: sound of coat being retrieved and hat going on head]

    Close the door behind you.

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
  • HYUFD said:

    Indigo1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Boris last attempt at the leadership ended in farce and exposed the fragility of his ego... he didn’t even make the starting line. However, soundings over the weekend confirm what @HYUFD is saying... activists are being told to shut up whilst May gets it “over the line” on March 29th after which it’s game on to campaign for what should happen during the transition period, including g one assumes a change of leader

    Yes, that is likely (assuming a deal to get over the line can be had, which seems doubtful, since future contenders like Boris will probably need to say the deal is crap and how can they then back it), and Boris has been maneuvering himself for it. But he has the same problems as before, only more so. He does still have his positives. But if the time wasn't right last time for him, for all manner of reasons, there's certainly no guarantee the time will be right for him next time either.
    What is there to get over the line ? Barnier just jumped up and down on the torn up shreds of the Chequers offer, and Macron just told her to piss off when she tried to go over Barnier's head. The Chequers offer is dead, and in September Tory MPs are going to come back from their constituencies having had a month of ear bashing from their constituency associations and from mailbags and surgeries to tell her there isn't the faintest stomach for it in the voluntary party or much of the electorate.
    Actually Barnier said he could work with the Chequers Deal, the only thing he and the EU are holding put for is more regulatory alignment on services to match the regulatory alignment May has already proposed on goods
    Plus free movement and the Customs Union.
  • Rexel56 said:

    Boris last attempt at the leadership ended in farce and exposed the fragility of his ego... he didn’t even make the starting line. However, soundings over the weekend confirm what @HYUFD is saying... activists are being told to shut up whilst May gets it “over the line” on March 29th after which it’s game on to campaign for what should happen during the transition period, including g one assumes a change of leader


    Except by the transition period we will have legally agreed to pay over the withdrawal fee to the EU but not have a trade agreement with the EU in place - no bargaining chips left.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,777
    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Liebniz invented infinitesimals, which is coincidentally the precise amount of self awareness Corbyn has.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,545
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    Given his policies, surely irrational numbers are a better fit? ;)
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited August 2018

    Rexel56 said:

    Boris last attempt at the leadership ended in farce and exposed the fragility of his ego... he didn’t even make the starting line. However, soundings over the weekend confirm what @HYUFD is saying... activists are being told to shut up whilst May gets it “over the line” on March 29th after which it’s game on to campaign for what should happen during the transition period, including g one assumes a change of leader


    Except by the transition period we will have legally agreed to pay over the withdrawal fee to the EU but not have a trade agreement with the EU in place - no bargaining chips left.
    What bargaining chips do you think we have left? Nobody took Dom Raab's threat to default on our spending commitments seriously. I mean I suspect May planned to neuter Raab of all power before he said that anyway, but it really hammered home that making empty threats that get systematically ignored or ridiculed by the EU27 and Barnier is the phase that Team Brexit are currently at.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    Given his policies, surely irrational numbers are a better fit? ;)
    The Greeks knew of irrational numbers and wanted nothing to do with them. It was a bit of a Greek Tragedy, rather like Corbyn.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    He's famous for having simultaneously discovered calculus, but via a formalism that was significantly more useful than Newton's.

    Newton feuded with Leibniz his entire life over it. Refusing to believe that Leibniz could possibly have had the same idea has him, and even come up with a far more practical formulation and notation than his.

    FWIW, it's Leibniz's formulation of calculus via infinitesimals, and not Newton's, which is the one every mathematician uses. Newton's method of fluxions is of historical interest only.

    This idea that a foreigner could never out-think a British man was very Brexit.
  • Watching BBC news last night. They were discussing project fear except now by brexiters. At the start the idea of a hard brexit was considered project fear. Now it is a likely option according to fox. Talk of stockpiling drugs was considered project fear now it is considered necessary to negotiate with the EC. Slow down in economy was considered project fear now it is happening but just part of the cost of transition. What is left of project fear?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Rexel56 said:

    Boris last attempt at the leadership ended in farce and exposed the fragility of his ego... he didn’t even make the starting line. However, soundings over the weekend confirm what @HYUFD is saying... activists are being told to shut up whilst May gets it “over the line” on March 29th after which it’s game on to campaign for what should happen during the transition period, including g one assumes a change of leader


    Except by the transition period we will have legally agreed to pay over the withdrawal fee to the EU but not have a trade agreement with the EU in place - no bargaining chips left.
    What bargaining chips do you think we have left? Nobody took Dom Raab's threat to default on our spending commitments. I mean I suspect May planned to neuter Raab of all power before he said that anyway, but it really hammered home that making empty threats that get systematically ignored or ridiculed by the EU27 and Barnier is the phase that Team Brexit are currently at.
    Even if we survive Brexit, will we survive the transition of our major parties to Ultranationalists on one side and fascists on the other?

    The UK may not break up, but the reputational damage we are inflicting on ourselves will take years to undo and greatly diminish our influence.

    We have catapulted ourselves firmly into the 2nd rate country league
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,777

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    Given his policies, surely irrational numbers are a better fit? ;)
    The Greeks knew of irrational numbers and wanted nothing to do with them. It was a bit of a Greek Tragedy, rather like Corbyn.
    They played a lot with Pi for people who didn't like irrational numbers.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    When Jeremy Corbyn wrote, in a piece published online on Friday evening, that people who dished out anti-Semitic poison needed to understand that they did not do it in his name, the faithful raced across social media spreading the good news; this was leadership and anyone who doubted Corbyn’s commitment to making the Labour Party a safe place for Jews was guilty of acting in bad faith.

    From the outside looking in, it was a most unseemly sight.

    While Corbyn hummed and hawed for months about this problem – a problem he now concedes exists – his loyal supporters bought into the narrative that accusations of anti-Semitism in the Labour Party had been cooked up, or at least cynically exaggerated, in order to attack a good and decent man. Now that their hero had admitted the party had a problem, their position changed. Yes, Labour had been polluted by anti-Semitism – and thank goodness there was a man of the calibre of Corbyn ready to act to solve the problem.


    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/euan-mccolm-corbyn-part-of-the-disease-not-the-cure-1-4778961
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    kle4 said:

    The Chuckle brothers are one of those acts that I recall very little of, only how much I enjoyed them as a child. I respect the hell out of them for still enjoying the work and doing it as long as they could.

    My favourite chuckle brothers fact

    they're not the only comedy double act in the family

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patton_Brothers
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,545

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    He's famous for having simultaneously discovered calculus, but via a formalism that was significantly more useful than Newton's.

    Newton feuded with Leibniz his entire life over it. Refusing to believe that Leibniz could possibly have had the same idea has him, and even come up with a far more practical formulation and notation than his.

    FWIW, it's Leibniz's formulation of calculus via infinitesimals, and not Newton's, which is the one every mathematician uses. Newton's method of fluxions is of historical interest only.

    This idea that a foreigner could never out-think a British man was very Brexit.
    Newton was an ass IMO. He (and history) have treated Robert Hooke very poorly.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,777

    Watching BBC news last night. They were discussing project fear except now by brexiters. At the start the idea of a hard brexit was considered project fear. Now it is a likely option according to fox. Talk of stockpiling drugs was considered project fear now it is considered necessary to negotiate with the EC. Slow down in economy was considered project fear now it is happening but just part of the cost of transition. What is left of project fear?

    Well the zombie apocalypse led by gangs of unemployed London bankers and lawyers desperately searching the countryside for unpicked vegetables for a start. Which is a bit of a shame, on reflection.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    Given his policies, surely irrational numbers are a better fit? ;)
    The Greeks knew of irrational numbers and wanted nothing to do with them. It was a bit of a Greek Tragedy, rather like Corbyn.
    They played a lot with Pi for people who didn't like irrational numbers.
    Whether the Greeks liked irrationals or not was besides the point as far as reality was concerned. To do things in the real world you have to deal with the way the real world works - a lesson many politicians and political camp-followers need to relearn IMNSHO.

    Interestingly, the word "irrational" derived from the inability to express such numbers as a ratio of two integers. The word has moved from a technical definition of a type of number to describing unbalanced, unreasonable behaviour.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,777

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    Given his policies, surely irrational numbers are a better fit? ;)
    The Greeks knew of irrational numbers and wanted nothing to do with them. It was a bit of a Greek Tragedy, rather like Corbyn.
    They played a lot with Pi for people who didn't like irrational numbers.
    Whether the Greeks liked irrationals or not was besides the point as far as reality was concerned. To do things in the real world you have to deal with the way the real world works - a lesson many politicians and political camp-followers need to relearn IMNSHO.

    Interestingly, the word "irrational" derived from the inability to express such numbers as a ratio of two integers. The word has moved from a technical definition of a type of number to describing unbalanced, unreasonable behaviour.
    Did the mathematical meaning really exist before the adjectival meaning? I didn't know that.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    Given his policies, surely irrational numbers are a better fit? ;)
    The Greeks knew of irrational numbers and wanted nothing to do with them. It was a bit of a Greek Tragedy, rather like Corbyn.
    They played a lot with Pi for people who didn't like irrational numbers.
    Whether the Greeks liked irrationals or not was besides the point as far as reality was concerned. To do things in the real world you have to deal with the way the real world works - a lesson many politicians and political camp-followers need to relearn IMNSHO.

    Interestingly, the word "irrational" derived from the inability to express such numbers as a ratio of two integers. The word has moved from a technical definition of a type of number to describing unbalanced, unreasonable behaviour.
    like posting non stop about a vote from 2 years ago ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724

    Rexel56 said:

    Boris last attempt at the leadership ended in farce and exposed the fragility of his ego... he didn’t even make the starting line. However, soundings over the weekend confirm what @HYUFD is saying... activists are being told to shut up whilst May gets it “over the line” on March 29th after which it’s game on to campaign for what should happen during the transition period, including g one assumes a change of leader


    Except by the transition period we will have legally agreed to pay over the withdrawal fee to the EU but not have a trade agreement with the EU in place - no bargaining chips left.
    What bargaining chips do you think we have left? Nobody took Dom Raab's threat to default on our spending commitments. I mean I suspect May planned to neuter Raab of all power before he said that anyway, but it really hammered home that making empty threats that get systematically ignored or ridiculed by the EU27 and Barnier is the phase that Team Brexit are currently at.
    Even if we survive Brexit, will we survive the transition of our major parties to Ultranationalists on one side and fascists on the other?

    The UK may not break up, but the reputational damage we are inflicting on ourselves will take years to undo and greatly diminish our influence.

    We have catapulted ourselves firmly into the 2nd rate country league
    What is worse is that we are becoming a laughing-stock. People have always made jokes about us, but a bit carefully, rather like making jokes about the boss.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    Given his policies, surely irrational numbers are a better fit? ;)
    The Greeks knew of irrational numbers and wanted nothing to do with them. It was a bit of a Greek Tragedy, rather like Corbyn.
    They played a lot with Pi for people who didn't like irrational numbers.
    You mean they had their Pi and ate it?

    (I'll get me coat...)
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    Given his policies, surely irrational numbers are a better fit? ;)
    The Greeks knew of irrational numbers and wanted nothing to do with them. It was a bit of a Greek Tragedy, rather like Corbyn.
    They played a lot with Pi for people who didn't like irrational numbers.
    Whether the Greeks liked irrationals or not was besides the point as far as reality was concerned. To do things in the real world you have to deal with the way the real world works - a lesson many politicians and political camp-followers need to relearn IMNSHO.

    Interestingly, the word "irrational" derived from the inability to express such numbers as a ratio of two integers. The word has moved from a technical definition of a type of number to describing unbalanced, unreasonable behaviour.
    like posting non stop about a vote from 2 years ago ?
    Who me? I have hardly been on here compared to some. Besides, as long as you are living in a glass house you might want to stop throwing stones about.... :D
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    edited August 2018
    DavidL said:



    Did the mathematical meaning really exist before the adjectival meaning? I didn't know that.

    Ancient Greek philosophy established a fundamental differentiation between logical "true" assumptions of the universe and irrational "false" statements or mere opinions based on emotion or sensorial experience. The German cultural historian Silvio Vietta has shown that Greek philosophy thus founded a dual cultural system based on rationality as the domain of philosophy and science versus "irrational" emotion and sensuality as domains of literature and art.[4][5] Since the irrational emotions as stirred up in literature threaten the rationality of human beings, in The Republic Plato expelled poets from the state.[citation needed]

    In the later history of philosophy this opposition of rationality and the irrational was renewed as a methodological differentiation by Descartes, but reversed by Pascal in his statement: “Le coeur a ses raisons, que la raison ne connait point” (“The heart has its reasons which reason does not know”).[6] Pascal thus asserted a specific rationality of the "irrational" emotions. The philosophy of Sensualism (John Locke, among others) underlined the importance of the senses as the source of human perception and cognition.

    Kierkegaard gave some remit to irrationality in his Concluding Scientific Postscript to the Philosophical Fragments, where he claimed that 'Subjectivity is Truth'. Rather than allowing reason to do our choosing for us, Kierkegaard argued that irrational leaps of faith could be more useful, as they were more authentic (although, he never used the word 'authentic'), and thus gave more meaning to life. Objectivity, like reason, was opposed to subjectivity, and thus could not be said to give any meaning to anyone's life. Although he never dismissed rationality in its entirety, Kierkegaard argued that we could not allow rationality to make our decisions for us. In this, and to some degree, he offers a vindication of irrationality.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrationality
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Pythagoras proved that the square root of 2 could not be expressed as a fraction, and yet having proven mathematically the existence of an irrational number still refused to believe it.

    Similarly, Diophantus wrote the equivalent of 4 = 4x + 20 which would give a negative result, and he called this result 'absurd'.

    The Greeks simply refused to believe their own proofs when they disagreed with their own intuition.

    W. V. Quine had a name for this behaviour: a falsidical paradox.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Rexel56 said:

    Boris last attempt at the leadership ended in farce and exposed the fragility of his ego... he didn’t even make the starting line. However, soundings over the weekend confirm what @HYUFD is saying... activists are being told to shut up whilst May gets it “over the line” on March 29th after which it’s game on to campaign for what should happen during the transition period, including g one assumes a change of leader


    Except by the transition period we will have legally agreed to pay over the withdrawal fee to the EU but not have a trade agreement with the EU in place - no bargaining chips left.
    What bargaining chips do you think we have left? Nobody took Dom Raab's threat to default on our spending commitments. I mean I suspect May planned to neuter Raab of all power before he said that anyway, but it really hammered home that making empty threats that get systematically ignored or ridiculed by the EU27 and Barnier is the phase that Team Brexit are currently at.
    Even if we survive Brexit, will we survive the transition of our major parties to Ultranationalists on one side and fascists on the other?

    The UK may not break up, but the reputational damage we are inflicting on ourselves will take years to undo and greatly diminish our influence.

    We have catapulted ourselves firmly into the 2nd rate country league
    What is worse is that we are becoming a laughing-stock. People have always made jokes about us, but a bit carefully, rather like making jokes about the boss.
    what guff

    everybodys laughing at everybody atm we have no monopoly on it

    Germany - no functioning government, all it's party leaderd going from useless to crap, currently stagnating from a migration crisis of its own making
    France where the president has had to deny his rough em up bodyguard isnt his gay lover
    Italy - where do you start
    USA - Trump

    We live in a generation of fairly crap leaders
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    Given his policies, surely irrational numbers are a better fit? ;)
    The Greeks knew of irrational numbers and wanted nothing to do with them. It was a bit of a Greek Tragedy, rather like Corbyn.
    They played a lot with Pi for people who didn't like irrational numbers.
    Whether the Greeks liked irrationals or not was besides the point as far as reality was concerned. To do things in the real world you have to deal with the way the real world works - a lesson many politicians and political camp-followers need to relearn IMNSHO.

    Interestingly, the word "irrational" derived from the inability to express such numbers as a ratio of two integers. The word has moved from a technical definition of a type of number to describing unbalanced, unreasonable behaviour.
    Did the mathematical meaning really exist before the adjectival meaning? I didn't know that.
    Apparently so. It began to be used mathematically in the 1300s. It's adjectival use became common a couple of hundred years later.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,777

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    Given his policies, surely irrational numbers are a better fit? ;)
    The Greeks knew of irrational numbers and wanted nothing to do with them. It was a bit of a Greek Tragedy, rather like Corbyn.
    They played a lot with Pi for people who didn't like irrational numbers.
    Whether the Greeks liked irrationals or not was besides the point as far as reality was concerned. To do things in the real world you have to deal with the way the real world works - a lesson many politicians and political camp-followers need to relearn IMNSHO.

    Interestingly, the word "irrational" derived from the inability to express such numbers as a ratio of two integers. The word has moved from a technical definition of a type of number to describing unbalanced, unreasonable behaviour.
    Did the mathematical meaning really exist before the adjectival meaning? I didn't know that.
    Apparently so. It began to be used mathematically in the 1300s. It's adjectival use became common a couple of hundred years later.
    Oh the stuff you learn on PB. Thanks for that.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    Given his policies, surely irrational numbers are a better fit? ;)
    The Greeks knew of irrational numbers and wanted nothing to do with them. It was a bit of a Greek Tragedy, rather like Corbyn.
    They played a lot with Pi for people who didn't like irrational numbers.
    Whether the Greeks liked irrationals or not was besides the point as far as reality was concerned. To do things in the real world you have to deal with the way the real world works - a lesson many politicians and political camp-followers need to relearn IMNSHO.

    Interestingly, the word "irrational" derived from the inability to express such numbers as a ratio of two integers. The word has moved from a technical definition of a type of number to describing unbalanced, unreasonable behaviour.
    like posting non stop about a vote from 2 years ago ?
    Who me? I have hardly been on here compared to some. Besides, as long as you are living in a glass house you might want to stop throwing stones about.... :D
    no it was a site specific observation, usxually I sit Brexit nonsense out unless I fancy a spot of light trolling. There are much more important things in this world

    Barry Chuckle died today and I hope Ireland's luck holds on the hockey ( big ask )
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    Barnesian said:



    A good explanation of the position of a hard Brexiteer. It makes sense from that point of view. But a hard Brexit (or a no deal) does not have the numbers in Parliament.

    I suspect many Brexiteers are concerned that Brexit is losing momentum, that there is a growing chance of a second referendum and staying in, and that anything that gets us over the line on 29 March next year (even a BINO) is preferable to that. So they will support May. I think there are more of this type of Brexiteer among Tory MPs than the hard type.

    It has been said before - no deal does not need any numbers in Parliament. No other deal has the numbers either, and no deal is what happens if nothing else takes its place. Parliament cannot negotiate nor approve a deal that does not exist. I simply don’t believe that Labour will suddenly decide to come together and support some kind of EEA dream deal - they have no reason to and Corbyn doesn’t want it.

    There is only going to be May’s deal (eg a much sold out version of Chequers) and a vote for or against. I think she will lose this vote. When she does she will resign.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    DavidL said:


    Did the mathematical meaning really exist before the adjectival meaning? I didn't know that.

    The two distinct meanings of ratio (reason and fraction) were both present in ancient Latin, with the sense that numbers that couldn't be expressed as a fraction were in some sense absurd borrowed from ancient Greece.

    What the Greeks would have made of transcendental numbers, complex numbers, surreal numbers, quaternions etc. is anyone's guess
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited August 2018

    It has been said before - no deal does not need any numbers in Parliament.

    It has been said before and it was untrue before.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    He's famous for having simultaneously discovered calculus, but via a formalism that was significantly more useful than Newton's.

    Newton feuded with Leibniz his entire life over it. Refusing to believe that Leibniz could possibly have had the same idea has him, and even come up with a far more practical formulation and notation than his.

    FWIW, it's Leibniz's formulation of calculus via infinitesimals, and not Newton's, which is the one every mathematician uses. Newton's method of fluxions is of historical interest only.

    This idea that a foreigner could never out-think a British man was very Brexit.
    Newton was an ass IMO. He (and history) have treated Robert Hooke very poorly.
    I agree. Hooke was a brilliant scientist and it was bad luck that he had Newton to contend with.

    Flamsteed was another great scientist of the day that Newton had rows with. Apparently it once descended into fisticuffs in the Observatory at Greenwich.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    OT. Just put some money on Liverpool to win the Premiership with Mo S top scorer. William Hill 22/1. I hope it doesn't happen but remarkably good odds
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    Given his policies, surely irrational numbers are a better fit? ;)
    The Greeks knew of irrational numbers and wanted nothing to do with them. It was a bit of a Greek Tragedy, rather like Corbyn.
    They played a lot with Pi for people who didn't like irrational numbers.
    Whether the Greeks liked irrationals or not was besides the point as far as reality was concerned. To do things in the real world you have to deal with the way the real world works - a lesson many politicians and political camp-followers need to relearn IMNSHO.

    Interestingly, the word "irrational" derived from the inability to express such numbers as a ratio of two integers. The word has moved from a technical definition of a type of number to describing unbalanced, unreasonable behaviour.
    Did the mathematical meaning really exist before the adjectival meaning? I didn't know that.
    Apparently so. It began to be used mathematically in the 1300s. It's adjectival use became common a couple of hundred years later.
    Contrast and compare the terms "surd" and "absurd"
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    I agree. Hooke was a brilliant scientist and it was bad luck that he had Newton to contend with.

    Flamsteed was another great scientist of the day that Newton had rows with. Apparently it once descended into fisticuffs in the Observatory at Greenwich.

    Newton was, clearly in hindsight, very much on the Spectrum.

    Of course, nobody knew what autism spectrum disorder was back then, so Newton has just gone down in history as genius and massive pain in the arse.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris resembles Gordon Brown in his ambition for number 10. He also has that slight lack of the killer instinct. Expects and demands and does everything short of actually getting it.

    No, May or Osborne more resemble Brown on that front.

    Boris has charisma, Brown did not
    I really think you put far too much stock in the fact he has charisma. Yes, he does. It isn't the be all and end all.
    I think we also need to look at why he decided against standing last time. Was it simply that he thought he’d be beaten by Gove, or was there something else that might have come out in the campaign to scupper his chances? We all know there’s plenty of skeletons in his closet, and the UK isn’t Italy or the US when it comes to ignoring these things when it suits.

    Also the same question about Chuka Umunna, who decided not to stand for the Lab leadership a week after he’d announced he was standing in 2015. (He’s since got married).
    'Scandals' don't matter if you have charisma. And for those who say we are more prudish than the US or Italy who elected Bill Clinton, Trump and Berlusconi I just point you to the late Alan Clark who despite what he called 'a cupboard full of skeletons' was elected to Parliament multiple times.

    I doubt Boris or Umunna should worry, indeed I would not be surprised if they are our next two PMs
    Only if Umunna is still a member of the Labour Party. Many expect the usual suspects to flounce out at the LP autumn conference and form an SDP type party. Problem for them is that too many local party members, activists and supporters in the relevant constituencies are ready and waiting, considering it as a much easier solution to the deselection process. Meanwhile, the CCP regard themselves as more popular in their constituencies than they actually are.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    Given his policies, surely irrational numbers are a better fit? ;)
    The Greeks knew of irrational numbers and wanted nothing to do with them. It was a bit of a Greek Tragedy, rather like Corbyn.
    They played a lot with Pi for people who didn't like irrational numbers.
    Whether the Greeks liked irrationals or not was besides the point as far as reality was concerned. To do things in the real world you have to deal with the way the real world works - a lesson many politicians and political camp-followers need to relearn IMNSHO.

    Interestingly, the word "irrational" derived from the inability to express such numbers as a ratio of two integers. The word has moved from a technical definition of a type of number to describing unbalanced, unreasonable behaviour.
    Did the mathematical meaning really exist before the adjectival meaning? I didn't know that.
    Apparently so. It began to be used mathematically in the 1300s. It's adjectival use became common a couple of hundred years later.
    Oh the stuff you learn on PB. Thanks for that.
    Actully the word entered Late Middle English (from Latin) between 1425 to 1475.

    https://www.thefreedictionary.com/irrational
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    Given his policies, surely irrational numbers are a better fit? ;)
    The Greeks knew of irrational numbers and wanted nothing to do with them. It was a bit of a Greek Tragedy, rather like Corbyn.
    They played a lot with Pi for people who didn't like irrational numbers.
    Whether the Greeks liked irrationals or not was besides the point as far as reality was concerned. To do things in the real world you have to deal with the way the real world works - a lesson many politicians and political camp-followers need to relearn IMNSHO.

    Interestingly, the word "irrational" derived from the inability to express such numbers as a ratio of two integers. The word has moved from a technical definition of a type of number to describing unbalanced, unreasonable behaviour.
    like posting non stop about a vote from 2 years ago ?
    Who me? I have hardly been on here compared to some. Besides, as long as you are living in a glass house you might want to stop throwing stones about.... :D
    no it was a site specific observation, usxually I sit Brexit nonsense out unless I fancy a spot of light trolling. There are much more important things in this world

    Barry Chuckle died today and I hope Ireland's luck holds on the hockey ( big ask )
    This place has become bipolar, a bit like the UK.

    I have never seen or heard of the Chuckles

    I did not know Ireland possessed a hockey team. They made me play hockey at school. I hated it.

    I think I will escape back to some science pursuits again. Dealing with the real world is so much more rewarding and refreshing.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092


    . . snip . .
    France where the president has had to deny his rough em up bodyguard isnt his gay lover

    Macron says he has a gay lover?
  • There's actually a third meaning of "irrational":

    (Poetry) prosody (in Greek or Latin verse)
    a. of or relating to a metrical irregularity, usually the occurrence of a long syllable instead of a short one
    b. denoting a metrical foot where such an irregularity occurs
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234


    Actully the word entered Late Middle English (from Latin) between 1425 to 1475.

    https://www.thefreedictionary.com/irrational

    Perhaps, but since both senses of "ratio" were already present in Latin I'd argue it matters little when it became a common English word. The duality of meaning for "ratio" has been around for over 2000 years
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    PB Tory activists: does anyone know if the party does checks on people joining i.e. are they a member of another party?

    Strikes me that if Tory constituency parties are seeing 20 or 30 people joining in a very short time, then this is co-ordinated and probably means they are either still kipper members or are lapsed ones, or worse, far right activists from Britain First or whatever (although doubt they would have these kinds of numbers).
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    Given his policies, surely irrational numbers are a better fit? ;)
    The Greeks knew of irrational numbers and wanted nothing to do with them. It was a bit of a Greek Tragedy, rather like Corbyn.
    They played a lot with Pi for people who didn't like irrational numbers.
    Whether the Greeks liked irrationals or not was besides the point as far as reality was concerned. To do things in the real world you have to deal with the way the real world works - a lesson many politicians and political camp-followers need to relearn IMNSHO.

    Interestingly, the word "irrational" derived from the inability to express such numbers as a ratio of two integers. The word has moved from a technical definition of a type of number to describing unbalanced, unreasonable behaviour.
    Did the mathematical meaning really exist before the adjectival meaning? I didn't know that.
    Apparently so. It began to be used mathematically in the 1300s. It's adjectival use became common a couple of hundred years later.
    Oh the stuff you learn on PB. Thanks for that.
    Actully the word entered Late Middle English (from Latin) between 1425 to 1475.

    https://www.thefreedictionary.com/irrational
    Obviously some debate ... but still way better than Br*x*t :D
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    PB Tory activists: does anyone know if the party does checks on people joining i.e. are they a member of another party?

    Local parties are supposed to, but they often don't.

    ISTR Plato late of this Parish, (PBUH) was a member of like three political parties at once.
  • Been searching for comments on Apple becoming a trillion dollar company. I guess this event may not be seen as political but maybe it should. The world is changing and our government doesn't really seem to have a plan.

    The average age of my staff is dropping fast as we adopt more technology at my company. I am not sure we realise how dependent we are on the youth of the country. Yet we virtually ignore them politically
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Contrast and compare the terms "surd" and "absurd"

    Indeed. I have done so many times :)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,777

    Been searching for comments on Apple becoming a trillion dollar company. I guess this event may not be seen as political but maybe it should. The world is changing and our government doesn't really seem to have a plan.

    The average age of my staff is dropping fast as we adopt more technology at my company. I am not sure we realise how dependent we are on the youth of the country. Yet we virtually ignore them politically

    I made a couple but personally I found Amazon UK's derisory tax bill more inflammatory and political. The power of the FAAMGs is indeed a concern for all governments. They make Standard Oil in its pomp look like a corner shop.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    ... so Newton has just gone down in history as genius and massive pain in the arse.

    Which, of course, is exactly what he was.

    Genuises are often very, very driven people and I suspect that a high proportion of them are/were autistic in some way (and I say that as someone with a daughter who has Aspergers)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OT I've just noticed, on logging out of the ERS web site after confirming my right to vote, that the links to online help and the ERS policy statement are both in Welsh: Help Ar-lein and Datganiad Polisi.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    Been searching for comments on Apple becoming a trillion dollar company. I guess this event may not be seen as political but maybe it should. The world is changing and our government doesn't really seem to have a plan.

    The average age of my staff is dropping fast as we adopt more technology at my company. I am not sure we realise how dependent we are on the youth of the country. Yet we virtually ignore them politically

    I made a couple but personally I found Amazon UK's derisory tax bill more inflammatory and political. The power of the FAAMGs is indeed a concern for all governments. They make Standard Oil in its pomp look like a corner shop.
    Whilst a company can legally claim it has one corporate structure to country A and a different structure to company B these kind of shenanigans will continue.

    Not even country-by-country reporting can stop this, only global harmonisation/info sharing on declared corporate structures.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    DavidL said:

    Been searching for comments on Apple becoming a trillion dollar company. I guess this event may not be seen as political but maybe it should. The world is changing and our government doesn't really seem to have a plan.

    The average age of my staff is dropping fast as we adopt more technology at my company. I am not sure we realise how dependent we are on the youth of the country. Yet we virtually ignore them politically

    I made a couple but personally I found Amazon UK's derisory tax bill more inflammatory and political. The power of the FAAMGs is indeed a concern for all governments. They make Standard Oil in its pomp look like a corner shop.
    Corporation tax is paid on profits, and Amazon is very good at profit minimisation.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724

    OT I've just noticed, on logging out of the ERS web site after confirming my right to vote, that the links to online help and the ERS policy statement are both in Welsh: Help Ar-lein and Datganiad Polisi.

    There’s a Welsh option. Not mandatory.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,777
    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Been searching for comments on Apple becoming a trillion dollar company. I guess this event may not be seen as political but maybe it should. The world is changing and our government doesn't really seem to have a plan.

    The average age of my staff is dropping fast as we adopt more technology at my company. I am not sure we realise how dependent we are on the youth of the country. Yet we virtually ignore them politically

    I made a couple but personally I found Amazon UK's derisory tax bill more inflammatory and political. The power of the FAAMGs is indeed a concern for all governments. They make Standard Oil in its pomp look like a corner shop.
    Whilst a company can legally claim it has one corporate structure to country A and a different structure to company B these kind of shenanigans will continue.

    Not even country-by-country reporting can stop this, only global harmonisation/info sharing on declared corporate structures.
    £8bn of UK sales being booked in Luxemburg seems to me an obvious place to start. Profits are being diverted from where they are generated to our very considerable cost. Amazon's bill should have been 100x what it was.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    There is only going to be May’s deal (eg a much sold out version of Chequers) and a vote for or against. I think she will lose this vote. When she does she will resign.

    For the sake of argument assume your analysis is correct. Why would May not throw in a game changer before that point?
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    ... Corbyn, well we can be grateful for the work of Gottfried Leibniz.

    Calculus? Binary numbers? Optimism? Library catalogues?
    Negative numbers was what I had in mind but I appreciate that his contributions were considerably greater than that.
    Given his policies, surely irrational numbers are a better fit? ;)
    The Greeks knew of irrational numbers and wanted nothing to do with them. It was a bit of a Greek Tragedy, rather like Corbyn.
    They played a lot with Pi for people who didn't like irrational numbers.
    Whether the Greeks liked irrationals or not was besides the point as far as reality was concerned. To do things in the real world you have to deal with the way the real world works - a lesson many politicians and political camp-followers need to relearn IMNSHO.

    Interestingly, the word "irrational" derived from the inability to express such numbers as a ratio of two integers. The word has moved from a technical definition of a type of number to describing unbalanced, unreasonable behaviour.
    Did the mathematical meaning really exist before the adjectival meaning? I didn't know that.
    Apparently so. It began to be used mathematically in the 1300s. It's adjectival use became common a couple of hundred years later.
    Oh the stuff you learn on PB. Thanks for that.
    Actully the word entered Late Middle English (from Latin) between 1425 to 1475.

    https://www.thefreedictionary.com/irrational
    Obviously some debate ... but still way better than Br*x*t :D
    Easy as Pi? :)
  • Roger said:

    OT. Just put some money on Liverpool to win the Premiership with Mo S top scorer. William Hill 22/1. I hope it doesn't happen but remarkably good odds

    That is an incredible bet. Especially since the two are linked, if one does happen the other is more likely.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,777

    DavidL said:

    Been searching for comments on Apple becoming a trillion dollar company. I guess this event may not be seen as political but maybe it should. The world is changing and our government doesn't really seem to have a plan.

    The average age of my staff is dropping fast as we adopt more technology at my company. I am not sure we realise how dependent we are on the youth of the country. Yet we virtually ignore them politically

    I made a couple but personally I found Amazon UK's derisory tax bill more inflammatory and political. The power of the FAAMGs is indeed a concern for all governments. They make Standard Oil in its pomp look like a corner shop.
    Corporation tax is paid on profits, and Amazon is very good at profit minimisation.
    "Good" is another of those words with an interesting etymology. I see nothing good in our conventional tax and rate paying retail sector being destroyed by a tax avoiding behemoth. It is grossly unfair competition.
  • DavidL said:

    Been searching for comments on Apple becoming a trillion dollar company. I guess this event may not be seen as political but maybe it should. The world is changing and our government doesn't really seem to have a plan.

    The average age of my staff is dropping fast as we adopt more technology at my company. I am not sure we realise how dependent we are on the youth of the country. Yet we virtually ignore them politically

    I made a couple but personally I found Amazon UK's derisory tax bill more inflammatory and political. The power of the FAAMGs is indeed a concern for all governments. They make Standard Oil in its pomp look like a corner shop.
    Corporation tax is paid on profits, and Amazon is very good at profit minimisation.
    They are right now while they are rapidly expanding but there must come a day when the expansion slows or stops and the profits will ramp up at which point taxes will too.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    DavidL said:

    Been searching for comments on Apple becoming a trillion dollar company. I guess this event may not be seen as political but maybe it should. The world is changing and our government doesn't really seem to have a plan.

    The average age of my staff is dropping fast as we adopt more technology at my company. I am not sure we realise how dependent we are on the youth of the country. Yet we virtually ignore them politically

    I made a couple but personally I found Amazon UK's derisory tax bill more inflammatory and political. The power of the FAAMGs is indeed a concern for all governments. They make Standard Oil in its pomp look like a corner shop.
    Can anyone recommend a good book about Standard Oil?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    DavidL said:


    "Good" is another of those words with an interesting etymology. I see nothing good in our conventional tax and rate paying retail sector being destroyed by a tax avoiding behemoth. It is grossly unfair competition.

    But it's not illegal or immoral not to make a profit. Amazon is just very skilled at it.

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340

    PB Tory activists: does anyone know if the party does checks on people joining i.e. are they a member of another party?

    Local parties are supposed to, but they often don't.

    ISTR Plato late of this Parish, (PBUH) was a member of like three political parties at once.
    PBUH = Political Betting’s Unique Headcase?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    PB Tory activists: does anyone know if the party does checks on people joining i.e. are they a member of another party?

    Local parties are supposed to, but they often don't.

    ISTR Plato late of this Parish, (PBUH) was a member of like three political parties at once.
    Thanks. Could be a major crisis coming for Tories then.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,777
    edited August 2018

    DavidL said:


    "Good" is another of those words with an interesting etymology. I see nothing good in our conventional tax and rate paying retail sector being destroyed by a tax avoiding behemoth. It is grossly unfair competition.

    But it's not illegal or immoral not to make a profit. Amazon is just very skilled at it.

    I'm not suggesting it is. Profits are an essential part of the capitalist system and are to be encouraged. But what we have now is huge international companies extracting many billions of profit from our society and paying very little back in. That increases the burden of maintaining the society that they feed from on everyone else yet further increasing their advantage. It is parasitical behaviour and it really needs to be stopped.

    These companies comply with and use the rules. It is our rulemakers that are not up to the mark.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Been searching for comments on Apple becoming a trillion dollar company. I guess this event may not be seen as political but maybe it should. The world is changing and our government doesn't really seem to have a plan.

    The average age of my staff is dropping fast as we adopt more technology at my company. I am not sure we realise how dependent we are on the youth of the country. Yet we virtually ignore them politically

    I made a couple but personally I found Amazon UK's derisory tax bill more inflammatory and political. The power of the FAAMGs is indeed a concern for all governments. They make Standard Oil in its pomp look like a corner shop.
    Corporation tax is paid on profits, and Amazon is very good at profit minimisation.
    "Good" is another of those words with an interesting etymology. I see nothing good in our conventional tax and rate paying retail sector being destroyed by a tax avoiding behemoth. It is grossly unfair competition.
    The Amazon warehouses I've driven past seem to have been given an exemption from regulations regarding road safety and parking on double yellow lines.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    There is only going to be May’s deal (eg a much sold out version of Chequers) and a vote for or against. I think she will lose this vote. When she does she will resign.

    For the sake of argument assume your analysis is correct. Why would May not throw in a game changer before that point?
    Such as?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    There is only going to be May’s deal (eg a much sold out version of Chequers) and a vote for or against. I think she will lose this vote. When she does she will resign.

    For the sake of argument assume your analysis is correct. Why would May not throw in a game changer before that point?
    Such as?
    A second referendum. If you think she's a goner if the Withdrawal Agreement goes to parliament, that's the best way to preempt it.
  • DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Been searching for comments on Apple becoming a trillion dollar company. I guess this event may not be seen as political but maybe it should. The world is changing and our government doesn't really seem to have a plan.

    The average age of my staff is dropping fast as we adopt more technology at my company. I am not sure we realise how dependent we are on the youth of the country. Yet we virtually ignore them politically

    I made a couple but personally I found Amazon UK's derisory tax bill more inflammatory and political. The power of the FAAMGs is indeed a concern for all governments. They make Standard Oil in its pomp look like a corner shop.
    Whilst a company can legally claim it has one corporate structure to country A and a different structure to company B these kind of shenanigans will continue.

    Not even country-by-country reporting can stop this, only global harmonisation/info sharing on declared corporate structures.
    £8bn of UK sales being booked in Luxemburg seems to me an obvious place to start. Profits are being diverted from where they are generated to our very considerable cost. Amazon's bill should have been 100x what it was.
    New law - for every ten migrant workers a business employs it has to fund a new house being built.

    For multinationals reduce to every five workers, for workers being paid under average earnings reduce to every two workers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,586
    Mortimer said:

    DavidL said:

    Been searching for comments on Apple becoming a trillion dollar company. I guess this event may not be seen as political but maybe it should. The world is changing and our government doesn't really seem to have a plan.

    The average age of my staff is dropping fast as we adopt more technology at my company. I am not sure we realise how dependent we are on the youth of the country. Yet we virtually ignore them politically

    I made a couple but personally I found Amazon UK's derisory tax bill more inflammatory and political. The power of the FAAMGs is indeed a concern for all governments. They make Standard Oil in its pomp look like a corner shop.
    Can anyone recommend a good book about Standard Oil?
    Not Standard Oil per se, but this is excellent - and did win a Pulitzer:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Prize:_The_Epic_Quest_for_Oil,_Money,_and_Power
This discussion has been closed.