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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » History suggests one of Philip Hammond, Jeremy Hunt, and Sajid

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    Time to say good night once more

    Amazing times and how future PPE students comprehend the last 2 to 3 years will be very interesting
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    kle4 said:

    It’s not really bewildering that Corbynistas ‘hate’ Tom Watson. I agree with Watson’s intervention, but that was widely seen as an attempt to undermine Corbyn. Thus, it is obvious that Corbynistas will (as they always have been) be furiously angry at any attempt to undermine their leader.

    No it is not bewildering, but it does show that devotion to the man is the primary motivation. Which also is not bewildering, given the sort doing it are often the sort who get angry at the admission of a problem even as Corbyn (in his own way admittedly) also says there is a problem.

    Any party should be wary when there is such devotion to a leader, never mind validity of any criticism, whether any criticism was all that direct or harsh, never mind consistency. It would be a very very rare leader, I would suggest, who would deserve that. I actually would like to think Corbyn would be humble enough to suggest he does not deserve such veneration.
    I think Corbyn has narcissistic and messianic tendencies, much like Blair did. So I think he’s more than happy to have cult like following. But you make a very good point that this seems to be less about ideology, and much more about Corbyn himself. They could replace Corbyn with someone who shares his politics, but you get the sense the devotion to him or her would be less than it is with Corbyn. And it is curious as to what it is about Corbyn that inspires such a devotion. After all, McDonnell has also retained the same views he had decades ago, but he doesn’t have the kind of fandom Corbyn does.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    Time to say good night once more

    Amazing times and how future PPE students comprehend the last 2 to 3 years will be very interesting

    Aren't PPE students all too busy figuring who they will be a Spad to after graduation, and how to start on the path to getting a safe seat, to delve into deep analysis?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    edited August 2018

    kle4 said:

    It’s not really bewildering that Corbynistas ‘hate’ Tom Watson. I agree with Watson’s intervention, but that was widely seen as an attempt to undermine Corbyn. Thus, it is obvious that Corbynistas will (as they always have been) be furiously angry at any attempt to undermine their leader.

    No

    Any party should be wary when there is such devotion to a leader, never mind validity of any criticism, whether any criticism was all that direct or harsh, never mind consistency. It would be a very very rare leader, I would suggest, who would deserve that. I actually would like to think Corbyn would be humble enough to suggest he does not deserve such veneration.
    I think Corbyn has narcissistic and messianic tendencies, much like Blair did. So I think he’s more than happy to have cult like following. But you make a very good point that this seems to be less about ideology, and much more about Corbyn himself. They could replace Corbyn with someone who shares his politics, but you get the sense the devotion to him or her would be less than it is with Corbyn. And it is curious as to what it is about Corbyn that inspires such a devotion. After all, McDonnell has also retained the same views he had decades ago, but he doesn’t have the kind of fandom Corbyn does.
    They seem to have different styles which work better in different situations. McDonnell seems sharper, more traditionally authoritative, he seems quicker on his feet. But contrasting against that he seems harder, more cynical. Corbyn has had flashes of petulance, not unusual in politicians, but his general manner is soothing, apparently reflective, and seems pretty normal and genial. It means he can be more engaging, in an understated way, and nonthreatening. People might yearn for radical ideals, but I think they want someone who doesn't look or sound that radical to ease them into it, if that makes sense.

    None of that may be true to the men themselves of course, but that is the impression I get from each in their mannerisms. I don't know that it explains the complete level of fervour for Corbyn, although as Jezziah and others have suggested I think it is about him being symbolic of their hope for a more left oriented party, and for some I think him being the most realistic prospect of that for years has imprinted on them a bit, and they don't see that there are others in the party of the same or similar views, people without his baggage who could advance that cause. The moderates are defeated, the membership backs Corbyn, his core does not actually need to fear him being taken down in the manner they think.
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    It’s not really bewildering that Corbynistas ‘hate’ Tom Watson. I agree with Watson’s intervention, but that was widely seen as an attempt to undermine Corbyn. Thus, it is obvious that Corbynistas will (as they always have been) be furiously angry at any attempt to undermine their leader.

    I just read the Guardian article on Tom Watson's comments. What he said is very similar to what John McDonnell has been saying for a while. So presumably the ice-pick is on its way to him too.
    McDonnell’s comments, by both the commentariat and Corbynistas were, for whatever reasons, not seen as a declaration of war in the way Watson’s was.
    I do hope Watson meant it in some anti Corbyn way otherwise he has been horribly misrepresented by the media and then the members (or some of them). I've been happy to mostly wipe the pre election slate clean and he hasn't really been openly anti Corbyn to a great degree (happy for actual policy disagreements)

    Although when it was presented as some sort of strike on the leadership there didn't seem to be much in the way of anger at being misrepresented or cries of denial?

    Mostly I am beyond caring about petty little disputes at this point but this is why it would be healthier to lose a few who do go out of their way to criticise the leadership so the party can move onto have internal debates in better faith.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    It's well worth remembering that all hard-left movements, without any exception, end up fracturing into multiple warring factions (literally warring in some cases). This one will be the same, the only question is whether it will gain power before it destroys the Labour Party.

    This infighting is not confined to Labour. The government is hardly united, and it is less than a month since Cabinet ministers were resigning. Perhaps it is the hot weather to blame, or perhaps the cold, refreshing drinks people may have enjoyed in this hot weather.
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Dadge said:

    Stephen Bush has mentioned a few times a range of 12-18 (somewhere round that) who have been seriously thinking about it or are on the edge of leaving.

    I think everyone would be a bit happier with the arrangement. Most of the regular people who are really unhappy with the leadership will have already left the party anyway so they could join back up with them if they wanted in a new party. The Labour party would then have less divisions and could concentrate on opposing the Tories rather than fighting each other.

    We could then continue our Stalinesque policies of giving members votes and a say in internal Labour matters whilst they could have a much more people controlled party where those high up in the party make the decisions.

    Your 'giving members votes' sounds nice but will end up eating the party alive in a sea of cult madness, obsession with finding the only pure person who never compromises, accusing anyone who breaths of being a Blairite traitor, and destroy Labour.

    As an example of this insanity:

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1026207885104242689
    There were people getting excited about it being a declaration of war from Watson, the members back the leader and the direction he is taking so will not like attempts to destabilise that.

    There is debate within the Labour party, for example the whole EU issue, people's vote etc. what Labour supporters are tired off after almost 3 years of it now is the pointless attacking of the leadership. That is why it would be healthier if those small number on the fringes did leave then we could have more debates about policy within the party rather than the constant Corbyn bashing which is probably just counter productive at this point...
    But the people who don't care that much for Corbyn aren't a "small number on the fringes". It wasn't that long ago that JC himself was the embodiment of the Labour fringe. Labour moderates have been exceedingly conciliatory, considering the fact that they, not unreasonably, don't think it's wise for the party to lurch too far to the left. And Corbyn has tried to hold the party together too. All the talk of deselection and expulsion comes from people who seem to have more in common with the politics of Soviet Russia than with those of Great Britain.
    I am not talking about every Labour MP who has a slightly different ideological leaning but those who constantly criticise, the ones who go out of their way to do so. Far beyond the point of constructive criticism and rapidly approaching petty and vindictive. John Woodcock is a good example of one who has already gone.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204

    It's well worth remembering that all hard-left movements, without any exception, end up fracturing into multiple warring factions (literally warring in some cases). This one will be the same, the only question is whether it will gain power before it destroys the Labour Party.

    This infighting is not confined to Labour. The government is hardly united, and it is less than a month since Cabinet ministers were resigning. Perhaps it is the hot weather to blame, or perhaps the cold, refreshing drinks people may have enjoyed in this hot weather.
    Dream on. The intensity in Lab is far worse.

    Who in the Tories is campaigning to have Fox or Mogg deselected because they are traitors?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    It's well worth remembering that all hard-left movements, without any exception, end up fracturing into multiple warring factions (literally warring in some cases). This one will be the same, the only question is whether it will gain power before it destroys the Labour Party.

    This infighting is not confined to Labour. The government is hardly united, and it is less than a month since Cabinet ministers were resigning. Perhaps it is the hot weather to blame, or perhaps the cold, refreshing drinks people may have enjoyed in this hot weather.
    Dream on. The intensity in Lab is far worse.

    Who in the Tories is campaigning to have Fox or Mogg deselected because they are traitors?
    Let's see where the Tories are in a few months. Having to undertake some actual governance, and bitterly divisive governance at that, has clearly stretched them.
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    @kle4 Yes, I agree that those differences between McDonnell and Corbyn explain why Corbyn is more liked than he is. But there’s liking someone, and then there’s worshipping them. There are those like Cat Smith, Laura Pidcock, Clive Lewis etc who share Corbyn’s works view who for whatever reason aren’t seen as alternatives to him atm.

    @TheJezziah I wouldn’t be surprise to see a few leave but I don’t see large numbers leaving the party.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    edited August 2018

    @kle4 Yes, I agree that those differences between McDonnell and Corbyn explain why Corbyn is more liked than he is. But there’s liking someone, and then there’s worshipping them. There are those like Cat Smith, Laura Pidcock, Clive Lewis etc who share Corbyn’s works view who for whatever reason aren’t seen as alternatives to him atm.

    Well as I say I think there's an element of political imprinting going on with that. He inspired a bunch of people to join, and is offering something those people don't think they were being offered for a long time, so even though others would now offer it (and at least as far as MPs go it is not as though others with his views had not attempted to run for leader before) and given the membership would win, some are so focused on he alone being the one who can offer it. I'd think there are elements to that with many parties, with people obsessed with how great the first leader they remember was, who was great back in the day who inspired them to join the party in the first place.

    That's the best theory I can conjure up with 5 minutes notice about the intensity of the devotion (I don't dismiss that plenty see him as a nice man and inspiring leader, but that doesn't, in itself, explain the worshipfulness - and that word is needed when it comes to excusing everything said leader does which no other would be granted the same leeway by those people)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    Interesting picture choice - someone yelling so intensely they look like they might pass out, while the object of their yell looks on impassively as though they barely notice it. An analogy for Watson's situation, or Corbyn's?
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited August 2018
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    None of that may be true to the men themselves of course, but that is the impression I get from each in their mannerisms. I don't know that it explains the complete level of fervour for Corbyn, although as Jezziah and others have suggested I think it is about him being symbolic of their hope for a more left oriented party, and for some I think him being the most realistic prospect of that for years has imprinted on them a bit, and they don't see that there are others in the party of the same or similar views, people without his baggage who could advance that cause. The moderates are defeated, the membership backs Corbyn, his core does not actually need to fear him being taken down in the manner they think.
    Is this where we get to basic psychology...

    Is it the greed of wanting more when you have some, or fear of it being taken away?

    You could make some parallels with Brexit and the advance to Hard Brexit or No Deal being acceptable options and maybe the fear some have of Brexit itself being taken away in some ways driving that advance.

    If you would have offered the left the hypothetical of Corbyn stepping down in this situation a few years ago when the left having much influence seemed unlikely they would have taken it without a second thought.

    We aren't there though, we are here. The no confidence vote sits heavily on the minds of many followed by the attempt to get Corbyn blocked off the ballot, there could be arguments that there are Corbyn specific reasons for that but I imagine many members would suspect that there would be specific reasons why each of the potential left wing candidates they like couldn't stand and wouldn't get enough nominations as a result.

    Maybe some suspicions about the replacement new leader, even if we did have one the members wanted when they have a wobble the party may seize the opportunity to replace them and get someone they wanted in.

    There are probably just a lot of stubborn people on both sides who put their foot down.

    For me personally Corbyn stills seems the best chance the left has got, the various campaigns against him have probably just strengthened my resolve. He's also the first politician to inspire me to vote (rather than doing so without enthusiasm) so there is a connection that goes beyond just policy or logic but on an emotional level. Although I would be okay with Corbyn being replaced if convinced it would benefit my political views advancing.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    edited August 2018

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    None of that may be true to the men themselves of course, but that is the impression I get from each in their mannerisms. I don't know that it explains the complete level of fervour for Corbyn, although as Jezziah and others have suggested I think it is about him being symbolic of their hope for a more left oriented party, and for some I think him being the most realistic prospect of that for years has imprinted on them a bit, and they don't see that there are others in the party of the same or similar views, people without his baggage who could advance that cause. The moderates are defeated, the membership backs Corbyn, his core does not actually need to fear him being taken down in the manner they think.
    Is this where we get to basic psychology...

    I have no knowledge of psychology and post everything extemporaneously (even more so than usual!), basic is probably as much as I could handle.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    It's well worth remembering that all hard-left movements, without any exception, end up fracturing into multiple warring factions (literally warring in some cases). This one will be the same, the only question is whether it will gain power before it destroys the Labour Party.

    This infighting is not confined to Labour. The government is hardly united, and it is less than a month since Cabinet ministers were resigning. Perhaps it is the hot weather to blame, or perhaps the cold, refreshing drinks people may have enjoyed in this hot weather.
    Dream on. The intensity in Lab is far worse.

    Who in the Tories is campaigning to have Fox or Mogg deselected because they are traitors?
    You're looking in the wrong direction. Plenty of Tories calling for the deselection of Soubry and her ilk.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,112
    That mouth is so wide open, I fully expect a set of Alien jaws to protrude and spear Watson.

    https://tropeanddagger.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/jaws.jpg
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    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    surby said:

    His comments came as the plane-maker Bombardier said that stockpiling parts to mitigate the impact of a no-deal Brexit would cost its Belfast business up to £30m. Michael Ryan, the head of the firm’s Northern Ireland operation, said spending such a sum to store goods is “not how we can afford to run a business” and is “cash that I don’t have”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/05/theresa-may-confident-of-reaching-brexit-deal-sources-say

    The Government could solve this problem in five minutes. They simply declare that post Brexit the UK will mutually recognise EU standards on car and aircraft parts, make them tariff and quota free and fast track these items through customs. Problem solved.

    Oh, but then May’s project Fear to get us to accept her sellout wouldn’t work as well...
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    surby said:

    His comments came as the plane-maker Bombardier said that stockpiling parts to mitigate the impact of a no-deal Brexit would cost its Belfast business up to £30m. Michael Ryan, the head of the firm’s Northern Ireland operation, said spending such a sum to store goods is “not how we can afford to run a business” and is “cash that I don’t have”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/05/theresa-may-confident-of-reaching-brexit-deal-sources-say

    The Government could solve this problem in five minutes. They simply declare that post Brexit the UK will mutually recognise EU standards on car and aircraft parts, make them tariff and quota free and fast track these items through customs. Problem solved.

    Oh, but then May’s project Fear to get us to accept her sellout wouldn’t work as well...
    I don’t think your idea would work. But if it did can I have tariff free and quota free raw materials fast tracked to my business too?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,735

    The Government...simply declare that post Brexit the UK will mutually recognise EU standards on car and aircraft parts, make them tariff and quota free and fast track these items through customs...

    When this whole kerfuffle stated, did you ever think you'd end up ceding control of the regulations and the border to the EU? We've all come a long way since the referendum, I think... :(
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    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    viewcode said:

    The Government...simply declare that post Brexit the UK will mutually recognise EU standards on car and aircraft parts, make them tariff and quota free and fast track these items through customs...

    When this whole kerfuffle stated, did you ever think you'd end up ceding control of the regulations and the border to the EU? We've all come a long way since the referendum, I think... :(
    That is not remotely what I said, sorry you don't understand. The benefit of having control of your own borders is that you can set tariff rates and customs policies that suit the UK. We can also CHOOSE to mutually recognise another countries standards when it suits us (this is what all nations do via FTAs). Since it would be in our interests to facilitate the import of components with no tariffs or delays, as an independent country we can do so. Quite how you get from there to giving the EU control of our borders is beyond me.
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    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    surby said:

    His comments came as the plane-maker Bombardier said that stockpiling parts to mitigate the impact of a no-deal Brexit would cost its Belfast business up to £30m. Michael Ryan, the head of the firm’s Northern Ireland operation, said spending such a sum to store goods is “not how we can afford to run a business” and is “cash that I don’t have”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/05/theresa-may-confident-of-reaching-brexit-deal-sources-say

    The Government could solve this problem in five minutes. They simply declare that post Brexit the UK will mutually recognise EU standards on car and aircraft parts, make them tariff and quota free and fast track these items through customs. Problem solved.

    Oh, but then May’s project Fear to get us to accept her sellout wouldn’t work as well...
    I don’t think your idea would work. But if it did can I have tariff free and quota free raw materials fast tracked to my business too?
    You really need to explain why it would not work.

    But an independent UK should not impose tariffs or quotas unless it is in our interests, and given 80% of the economy is services it rarely will be in our interests to do so. So if you want raw materials imported, you will be delighted to know that if we have No Deal the Government would be free to choose to make those tariff free - unlike in the EU were we are stuck with the CET to protect the Germans and the French.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    surby said:

    His comments came as the plane-maker Bombardier said that stockpiling parts to mitigate the impact of a no-deal Brexit would cost its Belfast business up to £30m. Michael Ryan, the head of the firm’s Northern Ireland operation, said spending such a sum to store goods is “not how we can afford to run a business” and is “cash that I don’t have”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/05/theresa-may-confident-of-reaching-brexit-deal-sources-say

    The Government could solve this problem in five minutes. They simply declare that post Brexit the UK will mutually recognise EU standards on car and aircraft parts, make them tariff and quota free and fast track these items through customs. Problem solved.

    Oh, but then May’s project Fear to get us to accept her sellout wouldn’t work as well...
    I don’t think your idea would work. But if it did can I have tariff free and quota free raw materials fast tracked to my business too?
    You really need to explain why it would not work.

    But an independent UK should not impose tariffs or quotas unless it is in our interests, and given 80% of the economy is services it rarely will be in our interests to do so. So if you want raw materials imported, you will be delighted to know that if we have No Deal the Government would be free to choose to make those tariff free - unlike in the EU were we are stuck with the CET to protect the Germans and the French.
    It would not work because the UK government cannot guarantee that the EU would not introduce barriers of some kind at any time.

    So many companies will have to build stocks, tying up capital.
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    VinnyVinny Posts: 48
    Any Conservative will tell you that Hammond is unacceptable as leader. His deathly negativity would kill the party. Gove is out; he is as ridiculous as a modern-day Nicholas Ridley. Hunt is weak and unattractive. Javid? No; we will not vote for a man who shows no inclination to reduce immigration. Also, he is a bit charmless, and dare I say it, colourless. It has to be Johnson and everyone knows it.
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    viewcode said:

    The Government...simply declare that post Brexit the UK will mutually recognise EU standards on car and aircraft parts, make them tariff and quota free and fast track these items through customs...

    When this whole kerfuffle stated, did you ever think you'd end up ceding control of the regulations and the border to the EU? We've all come a long way since the referendum, I think... :(
    I did not make that comment and would like to know where it came from.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    Vinny said:

    Any Conservative will tell you that Hammond is unacceptable as leader. His deathly negativity would kill the party. Gove is out; he is as ridiculous as a modern-day Nicholas Ridley. Hunt is weak and unattractive. Javid? No; we will not vote for a man who shows no inclination to reduce immigration. Also, he is a bit charmless, and dare I say it, colourless. It has to be Johnson and everyone knows it.

    Javid to be fair has taken on Hammond in opposing preferential migration rights for EU migrants
This discussion has been closed.