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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : October 3rd 2013
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : October 3rd 2013
Oakfield on Aylesbury Vale (Lib Dem Defence)
Last Local Election (2011): Con 38, Lib Dem 17, Lab 2, UKIP 2 (Con overall majority of 17)
Last Election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected
Liberal Democrats 475, 437
Conservatives 432, 419
Labour 336, 246
Independent 288
UKIP 205, 164
Candidates duly nominated:
0
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Comments
I believe the word 'gate' was the Viking word for 'street'.
Which is why so many towns in Danelaw areas have street names which end in -gate.
And no better way to round off a week which has galvanised the Party and provided fresh optimism and hope for Britain.
Oh sorry, I forgot, Labour's Conference was last week, wasn't it ?
I'll get me stoat.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/politics/
It seems designed to provoke those who don't like too much immigration into giving apparently racist answers.
I wouldn't give it too much credit.
To avoid embedding a picture, copy the text and link within the tweet, and not a link to the tweet itself.
For example, like this
sean thomas knox @thomasknox 2 Oct
Mornin'. And goodbye Crete. You've been good. Yamas!!
pic.twitter.com/FaZXemdt2i
How would you best describe your national identity?
The second question is the neutrally worded:
Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Britain nowadays should be increased, reduced or should it remain the same?
You may not like the results - but traducing the messenger does you no credit.
Faisal is being (deliberately) dumb.
Housing benefit spend is a consumption expense. House building is investment in an asset.
It is the act of an economic illiterate to post a chart which contrasts total housing benefit spend in a year with total investment in house building.
Housing benefit claimants require their rent paid over a single period regardless of whether a single or a million houses are built during that period.
The problems with the historical business model are:
1) The rents paid do not provide for an adequate return on the capital invested in building the properties. The government therefore needs to subsidise the building of social housing.
2) Even if rents were set at market rates (i.e. they did provide an adequate return on investment), there would need to be a liquid market for trading properties.
Private sector construction companies are interested in building and selling on at a profit to a commercial landlord or association of occupants. Landlords need to be able to earn a return on the cost of purchasing property from developers and maintaining it which provides them with a profit. Tenants need to pay rents to landlords which satisfy the need for competitive investment returns. Governments need to pay housing benefits to tenants which cover market rents. Market entry and exit at all levels needs to be liquid.
If only some of the above happens there is no functioning market and this will deter dynamic and market driven growth of social housebuilding. Construction will only take place when governments provide subsidies, whether in the form of soft loans or non-market rents.
The reason that no government has built enough social housing over the past decades is that the cost of required subsidy is too high.
Pretending housing benefits can be replaced with capital loans and the books will balance is Faisal living in la la land.
I am not posting whether I like or dislike the answers; the messenger traduces themselves when they frame the questions like that. But I guess "he who pays the piper" etc.
Unfortunately it increases bandwith costs.
The rocket propelled take off of Cousin Seth's revived business has led to him passing on to me his Lansley files.
I am planning to update PB on all the service quality improvements and cost benefits realised from Lansley's NHS reforms.
Enough of a threat to make you and Pork joint-venture a poultry farming business.
Land confiscation
State controlled press
Where did those ideas come from?
@MrHarryCole: Ed says he's going to force "proper standards of decency in our press". With his trusty black pen of truth and scalpel of justice?
I sincerely don't want to act as a grammar, style, still less political-correctness-gone-mad policeman on this site but you have now for the second time used "ethnic" as a noun to denote someone from an ethnic minority.
Perhaps you are being post-modern ironic but it's a bit 1970s Love Thy Neighbour quite frankly and perhaps you should reconsider, for the sparkling image of UKIP, an alternative.
Lab 8/15 (Paddy Power)
SNP 7/4 (Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
LD 33/1
Grn 100/1
Ind 100/1
UKIP 100/1
Con 150/1
The Labour MP Oswald Mosley's Black shirts? Yeh vile, like your comment.
I wonder how many degrees you will have in your next incarnation.
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2013/10/did-a-tory-peer-help-daily-mail-editors-father-dodge-the-draft/
btw Mail and Heil don't rhyme, just as fjord is a different word from field. Bloody difficult, this stuff.
A little over egging of the pudding going on there, methinks......Miliband Sr's war service was commendable - but let's not pretend he stormed any beaches......
I fear Miliband Senior's war record doesn't comfortably bear the weight you would like to impose upon it,
His son David realised that the voters do not think the same way, and are much more interested in practicalities, hence his managerial Blairism. I suspect that Eds views lie between the two.
My own elderly father can on occasion be homophobic and racist, views that I dislike, but I understand that the world has changed since he was a boy. He is also capable of generosity, compassion and is the least snobby person that I know. Most of us are filled with internal contradictions, and if he was pilloried in the papers, I would spring to his defence. Ed Miliband is right to do the same. It does not mean that Ed agrees with everything Ralph ever said.
Of course it is perfectly possible for a refugee academic to have very mixed feelings about his place of refuge. Karl Marx certainly did. Just as countries rarely like their liberators, refugees are often ambivalent about the countries that take them in, as indeed those countries are about their refugees.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10354575/Economy-growing-at-fastest-rate-in-the-developed-world.html
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/85906/the_daily_mail_friday_4th_october_2013.html
@tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead shrinks to 3 as Tories take ground from UKIP post conference. CON 35%, LAB 38%, LD 9%, UKIP 10%.
It's well documented that some of Miliband's mates at Hacked Off wish to see laws passed that prohibit criticism of the NHS by the press. Suddenly things are fitting into place.
Red Rag!! Mind the trap!
Well documented enough to provide a link?
St Edmundsbury Con 562 Green 399 Lab 154 LD 149
and
Taunton LD 457 UKIP 295 Con 179 Lab 159
The general consensus on East Lindsey is that Mel Turton-Leivers prominent on the local parish council should win .
I think of them as a Tory version of Gordon's winter fuel allowance.
Must be an outlier
But, like, yeh.
http://whereispauldacre.com/
Good news! The People's hated peddler of doom, the Daily Mail, reviled and loathed by all good-hearted patriots and purchased by only a handful of aristocratic drunkards, is on the run.
Comrade Miliband and the Committee for Freedom, ably assisted by the universally beloved and popular Guardian newspaper (which shuns the vulgar popularity lesser newspapers court), will soon enable the People to enjoy an unprecedented level of insight into current events.
By destroying the established, festering carcass of the Daily Mail, and other lesser newspapers, all news shall be provided by the Guardian. This will eliminate the capitalist decadence of choice from the People, who will all be able to benefit from the right thinking available in the Guardian. No more will those who deny that capitalism causes climate change be given the power to spout their filthy lies!
We'll see.
We all know you're a Primrose Hill lefty internationalist PRETENDING to be a goose-stepping, Horst Wessel-singing, Jew-baiting Nazi! But highly entertaining all the same!
Keep up the good work, Comrade!
I've never been able to understand that particular argument.
He left Labour to set up the imaginatively titled "New" Party!
The Fascists killed only 70 million (mostly by way of starting WW2 of course) but in only 12 years (out of a supposedly 1000 Year Reich!):
70 million/12 = 5.8 million deaths a year
Communists, OK, 100 million (we'll accept your figure) but over a much longer period, 74 years (1917 Revolution to 1991 end of Cold War).
100 million/74 = 1.4 million deaths a year
'Dissatisfied with the Labour Party, Mosley quickly founded the New Party. Its early parliamentary contests, in the 1931 Ashton-under-Lyne by-election and subsequent by-elections, arguably had a spoiler effect in splitting the left-wing vote and allowing Conservative candidates to win. Despite this, the organisation gained support among many Labour and Conservative politicians who agreed with his corporatist economic policy, and among these were Aneurin Bevan and Harold Macmillan. It also gained the endorsement of the Daily Mail newspaper, headed at the time by Harold Harmsworth (later created 1st Viscount Rothermere).'
I don't think you can assign 100% of WWII deaths to the fascists, because the Russian Communists used the war as an excuse to kill a lot of people.
UKIP 22.5%
Con 21.6%
Lab 19.1%
'@tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead shrinks to 3 as Tories take ground from UKIP post conference. CON 35%, LAB 38%, LD 9%, UKIP 10%.
And wee Timmy & the PB Bryants call it wrong yet again.
Tim
'The Labour share has risen a couple of points and been firmed up by the conferences, that'll do fine.
I was watching an old show from 1984 the other day and the audience didn't shout out or laugh at anyone despite the fact that Norman Tebbit was on the panel and the miner's strike was going on at the time.
LOL
Really though, it comes down to electoral maths, and currently the Conservatives can't win, not while Clegg is in charge of the yellows. If Vince takes over I think there will be a lot of swingback from the red team to the yellows and it will result in a decent performance for the Tories, at least maintaining their status as largest party in the house.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24392336
Cue for share sale.