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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Analysing the weekend’s extraordinary Twitter storm targeting

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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,718
    Jacob Rees-Mogg explains how we could have a second referendum after the negotiations have been completed.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/final-say-brexit-latest-conservative-mp-explain-speeches-second-referendum-a8477686.html
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    eekeek Posts: 24,981
    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    IanB2 said:


    You work to improve democracy within the EU, which is a long way from perfect. As is our own democracy with our broken unfair voting system and an unelected second chamber.

    The problem with that position is we had two decades or more of successive British Governments preaching about "reforming the EU". One example was or is the European Parliament - it remains a weak and powerless entity next to the Commission which still rules the roost as far as I can see through appointees from national Governments.

    That suits the national Governments just fine but it doesn't suit genuine democracy and reform with an EU Parliament that is more than a talking shop.

    Conversely, the years from 1979-2010 saw a huge centralisation of Government in the UK with Westminster and Whitehall taking huge swathes of power and responsibility from accountable and democratically elected Councils at all levels.

    The Coalition were happy to throw some bones (Public Health, Coroners Offices) back to local Councils but without adequate resources to make them work. The centralisation is now financial - local Councils have responsibility but no means of carrying out these functions.

    Instead of wibbling on about Regional or an English Parliament we need a wholly independent funding agency who will allocate the funds required to all areas of Government both national and local and that means giving Councils real power to raise significant amounts of local revenue via a Local Income Tax, Local Land Value Tax or whatever means works.
    Didn't Osborne start that already by making business rates etc a local tax?

    Ultimately the government should be seeking to abolish grants to local authorities and leave it up to the authorities to develop and encourage growth in their own area that leads to local taxes being raised locally.
    Christ no, that's the last thing I want ;)
    That is a brilliant plan if you live in the South East and your typical house is council tax band D/E or above.

    It's a utterly stupid idea if you live up North and the typical house is council tax band A.

    It's why councils like Northampton are already bankrupt without the grants their tax base isn't enough to keep things going..
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,718
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/stevehillage/status/1026767262001385472

    What word should we use for people who support illegality in the referendum campaign?

    Given both sides were guilty of it and it was a binary choice, 'voters' would seem an appropriate noun.
    .... but some are more guilty than others.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    Sean_F said:

    Article 50 contemplates that Member States will leave. Exercising one's right to do so is not blackmail. Never make a promise unless you're prepared to honour it.

    If EU membership is meant to be forever, then the Lisbon Treaty should have said so.

    Nowhere does Lisbon say that the remaining member states have an obligation to make leaving an inconsequential act. The possibility of a No Deal exit is even explicitly provided for in the treaty.

    Perhaps the promise that shouldn't have been made is to say that no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal...
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    We've had three polls in a row that are level-pegging, and the two before that had Labour 1% ahead. Everything remains finely balanced.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Glenn, Lisbon does say that good relations should seek to be maintained, or words to that effect.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    edited August 2018

    Sean_F said:

    Article 50 contemplates that Member States will leave. Exercising one's right to do so is not blackmail. Never make a promise unless you're prepared to honour it.

    If EU membership is meant to be forever, then the Lisbon Treaty should have said so.

    Nowhere does Lisbon say that the remaining member states have an obligation to make leaving an inconsequential act. The possibility of a No Deal exit is even explicitly provided for in the treaty.

    Perhaps the promise that shouldn't have been made is to say that no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal...
    Sure, but exercising A.50 is not a form of blackmail.


    It would be blackmail for a member State to threaten to exercise it, in order to extract concessions from other EU states.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Or do you still view it as a problem?

    It's a problem because the politicians we currently have are going to fuck it up.

    For many, many people the privations caused by Brexit are a big problem.

    You are lucky not to be one perhaps.
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    Sean_F said:

    Article 50 contemplates that Member States will leave. Exercising one's right to do so is not blackmail. Never make a promise unless you're prepared to honour it.

    If EU membership is meant to be forever, then the Lisbon Treaty should have said so.

    Nowhere does Lisbon say that the remaining member states have an obligation to make leaving an inconsequential act. The possibility of a No Deal exit is even explicitly provided for in the treaty.

    Perhaps the promise that shouldn't have been made is to say that no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal...
    No deal being better than a bad deal is a truism. As you said its explicitly provided for too so our Parliamentarians who ratified Lisbon agreed to that in 2007.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    Or do you still view it as a problem?

    It's a problem because the politicians we currently have are going to fuck it up.

    For many, many people the privations caused by Brexit are a big problem.

    You are lucky not to be one perhaps.
    I didn't have you down as such a socialist Scott. Timidly cowering under the umbrella of big government micromanaging every aspect of our lives.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Article 50 contemplates that Member States will leave. Exercising one's right to do so is not blackmail. Never make a promise unless you're prepared to honour it.

    If EU membership is meant to be forever, then the Lisbon Treaty should have said so.

    Nowhere does Lisbon say that the remaining member states have an obligation to make leaving an inconsequential act. The possibility of a No Deal exit is even explicitly provided for in the treaty.

    Perhaps the promise that shouldn't have been made is to say that no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal...
    Sure, but exercising A.50 is not a form of blackmail.
    I wasn't talking specifically about invoking Article 50 but about our whole approach over the last few years. Saying, "Give us what we want or we'll leave" isn't a credible negotiating position, and then having decided to leave, saying, "Now, give us what we want or we'll crush you" is even worse.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,718
    Why are right wingers anti-science (and anti-fact)?
    I remember the 'loony left', do we now have to think more about the 'loony right'?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Freedom of Movement?

    Is the perfect example of not being the problem as claimed.

    If you believe the Brexiteers, people voted to stop Polish workers moving in next door, so that more Pakistani Muslims can do so instead.

    I am not convinced that voters agree with that analysis, or that leaving the EU will salve the complaints of those who voted to stop "immigration".

    And of course the young people from the UK who lose out as a result, were outvoted by pensioners who didn't appreciate the value. The ones who do and already live in Spain are also screwed.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067

    Sean_F said:

    Article 50 contemplates that Member States will leave. Exercising one's right to do so is not blackmail. Never make a promise unless you're prepared to honour it.

    If EU membership is meant to be forever, then the Lisbon Treaty should have said so.

    Nowhere does Lisbon say that the remaining member states have an obligation to make leaving an inconsequential act. The possibility of a No Deal exit is even explicitly provided for in the treaty.

    Perhaps the promise that shouldn't have been made is to say that no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal...
    No deal being better than a bad deal is a truism. As you said its explicitly provided for too so our Parliamentarians who ratified Lisbon agreed to that in 2007.
    It's only a truism where no deal implies the status quo.
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    Sean_F said:

    Article 50 contemplates that Member States will leave. Exercising one's right to do so is not blackmail. Never make a promise unless you're prepared to honour it.

    If EU membership is meant to be forever, then the Lisbon Treaty should have said so.

    Nowhere does Lisbon say that the remaining member states have an obligation to make leaving an inconsequential act. The possibility of a No Deal exit is even explicitly provided for in the treaty.

    Perhaps the promise that shouldn't have been made is to say that no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal...
    No deal being better than a bad deal is a truism. As you said its explicitly provided for too so our Parliamentarians who ratified Lisbon agreed to that in 2007.
    It's only a truism where no deal implies the status quo.
    No it isn't. No deal means going onto standard global terms. A good deal is one that will be better than that, a bad deal would be one that is worse.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    I didn't have you down as such a socialist Scott. Timidly cowering under the umbrella of big government micromanaging every aspect of our lives.

    I am not. Neither am I an anarchist like you.

    I believe in the rule of law, which facilitates our lives.

    I haven't yet come across a cogent argument from any Brexiteer why the UK being the only country in the World without trade agreements (which is the position they are promoting) is such a good idea
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    A Labour MP facing disciplinary action has branded the probe into his conduct a "farce and a disgrace".

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45089254
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    Scott_P said:

    Freedom of Movement?

    Is the perfect example of not being the problem as claimed.

    If you believe the Brexiteers, people voted to stop Polish workers moving in next door, so that more Pakistani Muslims can do so instead.

    I am not convinced that voters agree with that analysis, or that leaving the EU will salve the complaints of those who voted to stop "immigration".

    And of course the young people from the UK who lose out as a result, were outvoted by pensioners who didn't appreciate the value. The ones who do and already live in Spain are also screwed.
    No if you believe the Brexiteers then they voted to make the politicians responsible for our migration and remove the lack of control. What we do with it then is our choice at our elections. We can easily increase migration as Australia and Canada whose model the Brexiteers advocate have higher migration.

    The cap at 100k was not a Brexiteer idea it was the brainchild of Remainers.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,677
    Scott_P said:

    Freedom of Movement?

    Is the perfect example of not being the problem as claimed.

    If you believe the Brexiteers, people voted to stop Polish workers moving in next door, so that more Pakistani Muslims can do so instead.

    I am not convinced that voters agree with that analysis, or that leaving the EU will salve the complaints of those who voted to stop "immigration".

    And of course the young people from the UK who lose out as a result, were outvoted by pensioners who didn't appreciate the value. The ones who do and already live in Spain are also screwed.
    Concern about free movement, immigration and its impact on the country was clearly the main driver behind Brexit: Studies have shown that people who felt anxious about immigration were not only more likely to play down the risk of Brexit; they were more likely to turn out and vote — and to choose to Leave.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-britain-is-in-denial-over-immigration/
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited August 2018
    Scott_P said:


    I haven't yet come across a cogent argument from any Brexiteer why the UK being the only country in the World without trade agreements (which is the position they are promoting) is such a good idea

    Evidence that the Uk will never sign any further trade deals ?


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    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    I didn't have you down as such a socialist Scott. Timidly cowering under the umbrella of big government micromanaging every aspect of our lives.

    I am not. Neither am I an anarchist like you.

    I believe in the rule of law, which facilitates our lives.

    I haven't yet come across a cogent argument from any Brexiteer why the UK being the only country in the World without trade agreements (which is the position they are promoting) is such a good idea
    No Brexiteer is promoting that. You're making straw men.

    The Brexiteers want the UK to sign good deals just as other nations have done. What is wrong with that?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Concern about free movement, immigration and its impact on the country was clearly the main driver behind Brexit: Studies have shown that people who felt anxious about immigration were not only more likely to play down the risk of Brexit; they were more likely to turn out and vote — and to choose to Leave.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-britain-is-in-denial-over-immigration/

    Ummm, that's my point.

    Immigration was the driver. Brexit is not the answer.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,226

    Why are right wingers anti-science (and anti-fact)?
    I remember the 'loony left', do we now have to think more about the 'loony right'?
    Western civilisation and enlightenment values such as truth, reason, evidence are collapsing in itself for no good reason, other than there are vandals who want to bring it all down.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:


    Evidence that the UK will never sign any further trade deals ?

    Not the issue.

    Without any on the day we leave, we are fucked.
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    Scott_P said:

    Or do you still view it as a problem?

    It's a problem because the politicians we currently have are going to fuck it up.

    For many, many people the privations caused by Brexit are a big problem.

    You are lucky not to be one perhaps.
    If the politicians we have fuck it up then they will face the ballot box and can be removed.

    That's democracy.
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    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:


    Evidence that the UK will never sign any further trade deals ?

    Not the issue.

    Without any on the day we leave, we are fucked.
    Nobody wants us not to have any. Even if we were to be in a position (extremely unlikely) of.not having any then we will be able to still sign new ones.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Scott_P said:

    Or do you still view it as a problem?

    It's a problem because the politicians we currently have are going to fuck it up.

    For many, many people the privations caused by Brexit are a big problem.

    You are lucky not to be one perhaps.
    If the politicians we have fuck it up then they will face the ballot box and can be removed.

    That's democracy.
    And in stark contrast to the EU....
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    No Brexiteer is promoting that.

    The Brexiteers want the UK to sign good deals just as other nations have done. What is wrong with that?

    They are promoting leaving with no deals in place.

    What happens after that doesn't affect the immediate catastrophe.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    If the politicians we have fuck it up then they will face the ballot box and can be removed.

    That's democracy.

    "let them eat sovereignty"

    It doesn't help the immediate catastrophe.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    No Brexiteer is promoting that.

    The Brexiteers want the UK to sign good deals just as other nations have done. What is wrong with that?

    They are promoting leaving with no deals in place.

    What happens after that doesn't affect the immediate catastrophe.
    So temporary then.

    Man up Scott - embrace the new frontiers.

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    Scott_P said:

    If the politicians we have fuck it up then they will face the ballot box and can be removed.

    That's democracy.

    "let them eat sovereignty"

    It doesn't help the immediate catastrophe.
    Immediate catastrophes happen regularly. Even the worst case scenarios aren't as bad as 2007 and the evidence is that the risks have been overstated.

    Would you sacrifice democracy to avoid a single one off recession? I would not.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Scott_P said:
    Could have saved themselves some money on that one: "...and here's one I made earlier.... "
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    Scott_P said:

    No Brexiteer is promoting that.

    The Brexiteers want the UK to sign good deals just as other nations have done. What is wrong with that?

    They are promoting leaving with no deals in place.

    What happens after that doesn't affect the immediate catastrophe.
    No they're not. Just not a deal with the EU if the EU won't give us a good one.

    We don't have a comprehensive deal with the USA, or China yet that's no catastrophe.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,306

    A Labour MP facing disciplinary action has branded the probe into his conduct a "farce and a disgrace".

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45089254

    Ah but he's not got Mishcon de Reya to say it for him though, has he? So the fight goes on.
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    I didn't have you down as such a socialist Scott. Timidly cowering under the umbrella of big government micromanaging every aspect of our lives.

    I am not. Neither am I an anarchist like you.

    I believe in the rule of law, which facilitates our lives.

    I haven't yet come across a cogent argument from any Brexiteer why the UK being the only country in the World without trade agreements (which is the position they are promoting) is such a good idea
    The strategy is not to have no trade deals, it is to grandfather the current EU trade deals on day 1 and then to renegotiate over a period of time. This process is ongoing and has been reported on because some countries in the world want to try and negotiate better deals than current from day 1. Which is a proof point that having a trade deal with the UK is important to a lot of countries in the world. Global Britain.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067

    Scott_P said:

    If the politicians we have fuck it up then they will face the ballot box and can be removed.

    That's democracy.

    "let them eat sovereignty"

    It doesn't help the immediate catastrophe.
    Immediate catastrophes happen regularly. Even the worst case scenarios aren't as bad as 2007 and the evidence is that the risks have been overstated.

    Would you sacrifice democracy to avoid a single one off recession? I would not.
    Given that it would be a recession of choice, I'd say that if you deny the people the choice of avoiding it, democracy has already been sacrificed.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,613
    The price of criticising a Saudi Arabia can be steep:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/two-words-from-canada-just-made-saudi-arabia-furious/566870/

    Trudeau seems to have managed the worst of all options - selling arms to an unpleasant regime and falling out with them at the same time.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,306

    Scott_P said:
    Could have saved themselves some money on that one: "...and here's one I made earlier.... "
    It is really remarkable though that a month which has seen May's brexit strategy (such as it was) collapse into chaos and Corbyn has had an MP shouting in his face that he is a f****** racist only to have the charges dropped because she has a scary lawyer should produce...nothing. Not even a sigh of disgust and a temptation to the LD alternative. It's almost as if the great British public is finding better things to do with its time than pay attention.

    The Brits are unusually sensible people, on the whole.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could have saved themselves some money on that one: "...and here's one I made earlier.... "
    It is really remarkable though that a month which has seen May's brexit strategy (such as it was) collapse into chaos and Corbyn has had an MP shouting in his face that he is a f****** racist only to have the charges dropped because she has a scary lawyer should produce...nothing. Not even a sigh of disgust and a temptation to the LD alternative. It's almost as if the great British public is finding better things to do with its time than pay attention.

    The Brits are unusually sensible people, on the whole.
    They are very sensible, because nobody is paying a blind bit of attention to politics. Westminster is closed, the sun is out, the kids are off school, they have to be entertained....
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,677
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could have saved themselves some money on that one: "...and here's one I made earlier.... "
    It is really remarkable though that a month which has seen May's brexit strategy (such as it was) collapse into chaos and Corbyn has had an MP shouting in his face that he is a f****** racist only to have the charges dropped because she has a scary lawyer should produce...nothing. Not even a sigh of disgust and a temptation to the LD alternative. It's almost as if the great British public is finding better things to do with its time than pay attention.

    The Brits are unusually sensible people, on the whole.
    I suspect “They’re all as bad as each other” is about the state of play.

    Two dogs that aren’t barking - Remania’s LDs and Hard Brexit’s UKIP. As you say - sensible people.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Sean_F said:


    We've had three polls in a row that are level-pegging, and the two before that had Labour 1% ahead. Everything remains finely balanced.

    If you believe polls, which is a fool's errand. They are utterly, completely meaningless.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,616
    Scott_P said:
    Boom? Maybe not.

    Is anyone actually paying any attention to politics, or have people just given up on the lot of 'em?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,306

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could have saved themselves some money on that one: "...and here's one I made earlier.... "
    It is really remarkable though that a month which has seen May's brexit strategy (such as it was) collapse into chaos and Corbyn has had an MP shouting in his face that he is a f****** racist only to have the charges dropped because she has a scary lawyer should produce...nothing. Not even a sigh of disgust and a temptation to the LD alternative. It's almost as if the great British public is finding better things to do with its time than pay attention.

    The Brits are unusually sensible people, on the whole.
    I suspect “They’re all as bad as each other” is about the state of play.

    Two dogs that aren’t barking - Remania’s LDs and Hard Brexit’s UKIP. As you say - sensible people.
    I think we have extremely low expectations of our politicians. They don't always meet them of course but hey, what can you do? When you make a political career so deeply unpleasant and intrusive as it is today (cf the attack on JRM's house and the disgraceful critique of his children) we can hardly complain that the Commons is full of nutters, can we?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:


    We've had three polls in a row that are level-pegging, and the two before that had Labour 1% ahead. Everything remains finely balanced.

    If you believe polls, which is a fool's errand. They are utterly, completely meaningless.
    And your gut says state of play is - what, exactly?
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,304
    All that was entirely and drearily predictable. The Leavers got the Brexit sell all wrong. They should have presented it as a kind of national endurance test requiring years of stress, disappointment and impecuniousness under the slogan 'We're all in it together'.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:


    We've had three polls in a row that are level-pegging, and the two before that had Labour 1% ahead. Everything remains finely balanced.

    If you believe polls, which is a fool's errand. They are utterly, completely meaningless.
    And your gut says state of play is - what, exactly?
    FUBAR. Until one or both of the parties gets a bleeding grip, any opinion poll is a random number generator.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    On Topic Watson was elected on a lie.

    Even I voted for him.

    He should put his mandate to the test.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,306

    On Topic Watson was elected on a lie.

    Even I voted for him.

    He should put his mandate to the test.

    What particular lie did you have in mind?
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    On Topic Watson was elected on a lie.

    Even I voted for him.

    He should put his mandate to the test.

    You Corbynite obsessives are beyond parody. What inexactitude was he elected on, in your expert opinion??
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    Financial Times compared the contest between Flint and Watson to the hotly contested 1981 deputy leadership election between Denis Healey and the leftist Tony Benn.

    Watson claimed to be the left wing candidate in reality no left wing candidates were on the ballot
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    edited August 2018
    DavidL said:

    On Topic Watson was elected on a lie.

    Even I voted for him.

    He should put his mandate to the test.

    What particular lie did you have in mind?
    He said he would be 100% supportive of all the Leadership candidates including Corbyn if he won
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Financial Times compared the contest between Flint and Watson to the hotly contested 1981 deputy leadership election between Denis Healey and the leftist Tony Benn.

    Watson claimed to be the left wing candidate in reality no left wing candidates were on the ballot

    Watson is rightwing because he thinks Labour have a problem with antisemitism among some of their members? I beg to differ.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,306

    DavidL said:

    On Topic Watson was elected on a lie.

    Even I voted for him.

    He should put his mandate to the test.

    What particular lie did you have in mind?
    He said he would be 100% supportive of all the Leadership candidates including Corbyn if he won
    Thanks. That seems quite a bold promise when you don't know what they are going to do but it also seems to me that that should be the role of the deputy. I don't really buy this independent mandate stuff. If he is unable to support the leadership I am not sure he should remain in office. What exactly does he hope to achieve?

    That said, the party seems to have listened so far as Hodge is concerned.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007
    edited August 2018
    Scott_P said:
    Tories down 4% since GE17, Labour down 2%, LDs up 3%, UKIP up 4%, Greens up 1%
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited August 2018

    Financial Times compared the contest between Flint and Watson to the hotly contested 1981 deputy leadership election between Denis Healey and the leftist Tony Benn.

    Watson claimed to be the left wing candidate in reality no left wing candidates were on the ballot

    The biggest irony is that Angela Eagle pitched herself as the most Corbyn-friendly candidate at the time....LOL.

    I never understood why Watson was so popular, he'd never done anything apart from the occasional whinge against Murdoch, and at the hustings I saw he was very unimpressive. And, as I expected, he's not shown any initiative while Deputy. I voted for Stella Creasy... although she's closer to the Right of the party, and can be a bit sanctimonious, she atleast had some energy and original ideas.
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    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On Topic Watson was elected on a lie.

    Even I voted for him.

    He should put his mandate to the test.

    What particular lie did you have in mind?
    He said he would be 100% supportive of all the Leadership candidates including Corbyn if he won
    Thanks. That seems quite a bold promise when you don't know what they are going to do but it also seems to me that that should be the role of the deputy. I don't really buy this independent mandate stuff. If he is unable to support the leadership I am not sure he should remain in office. What exactly does he hope to achieve?

    That said, the party seems to have listened so far as Hodge is concerned.
    But even that was mishandled with the statement Margaret Hodge had apologised which was swiftly demolished by her lawyers
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    Anazina said:

    Financial Times compared the contest between Flint and Watson to the hotly contested 1981 deputy leadership election between Denis Healey and the leftist Tony Benn.

    Watson claimed to be the left wing candidate in reality no left wing candidates were on the ballot

    Watson is rightwing because he thinks Labour have a problem with antisemitism among some of their members? I beg to differ.
    He is rightwing because he is rightwing.

    He votes consistently with Progress. calls everyone to his left Trot Entryists, is funded by LFI, tried to keep Corbyn as leader off the ballot in 2016
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,306

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On Topic Watson was elected on a lie.

    Even I voted for him.

    He should put his mandate to the test.

    What particular lie did you have in mind?
    He said he would be 100% supportive of all the Leadership candidates including Corbyn if he won
    Thanks. That seems quite a bold promise when you don't know what they are going to do but it also seems to me that that should be the role of the deputy. I don't really buy this independent mandate stuff. If he is unable to support the leadership I am not sure he should remain in office. What exactly does he hope to achieve?

    That said, the party seems to have listened so far as Hodge is concerned.
    But even that was mishandled with the statement Margaret Hodge had apologised which was swiftly demolished by her lawyers
    I am not sure many will care about that for more than a couple of minutes. But giving up on Hodge while persevering with Austen seems silly. Labour really, really need to move on from this frankly bizarre row. Just in case it starts to rain or something and people have a spare moment or two to check in.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,306
    In other news this trial seems to be proceeding sub optimally: https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/ben-stokes-trial-live-latest-1865220
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,718

    All that was entirely and drearily predictable. The Leavers got the Brexit sell all wrong. They should have presented it as a kind of national endurance test requiring years of stress, disappointment and impecuniousness under the slogan 'We're all in it together'.
    If they'd told anything approaching the truth they would have lost.
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    Anazina said:

    Financial Times compared the contest between Flint and Watson to the hotly contested 1981 deputy leadership election between Denis Healey and the leftist Tony Benn.

    Watson claimed to be the left wing candidate in reality no left wing candidates were on the ballot

    Watson is rightwing because he thinks Labour have a problem with antisemitism among some of their members? I beg to differ.
    He is rightwing because he is rightwing.

    He votes consistently with Progress. calls everyone to his left Trot Entryists, is funded by LFI, tried to keep Corbyn as leader off the ballot in 2016
    Watson right wing, really - the point is Corbyn and his cabal are hard left marxists so seen through his supporters anyone who does not bow to the cult is right wing
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On Topic Watson was elected on a lie.

    Even I voted for him.

    He should put his mandate to the test.

    What particular lie did you have in mind?
    He said he would be 100% supportive of all the Leadership candidates including Corbyn if he won
    Thanks. That seems quite a bold promise when you don't know what they are going to do but it also seems to me that that should be the role of the deputy. I don't really buy this independent mandate stuff. If he is unable to support the leadership I am not sure he should remain in office. What exactly does he hope to achieve?

    That said, the party seems to have listened so far as Hodge is concerned.
    But even that was mishandled with the statement Margaret Hodge had apologised which was swiftly demolished by her lawyers
    I am not sure many will care about that for more than a couple of minutes. But giving up on Hodge while persevering with Austen seems silly. Labour really, really need to move on from this frankly bizarre row. Just in case it starts to rain or something and people have a spare moment or two to check in.
    I agree to an extent but until they accept the full definition this is not going away and indeed in acceptance it would throw up a lot more different problems for Corbyn
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304

    Scott_P said:

    If the politicians we have fuck it up then they will face the ballot box and can be removed.

    That's democracy.

    "let them eat sovereignty"

    It doesn't help the immediate catastrophe.
    Immediate catastrophes happen regularly. Even the worst case scenarios aren't as bad as 2007 and the evidence is that the risks have been overstated.

    Would you sacrifice democracy to avoid a single one off recession? I would not.
    Brexit: not as bad as the Global Financial Crisis.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    DavidL said:

    In other news this trial seems to be proceeding sub optimally: https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/ben-stokes-trial-live-latest-1865220

    This is always the way when the prosecution goes first. The tone will change entirely once the defence gets in on the act. Shades of the Nigella case.
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    I see Morris Dancer has been advising Penny Mordaunt.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1026793851112091648
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,306

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On Topic Watson was elected on a lie.

    Even I voted for him.

    He should put his mandate to the test.

    What particular lie did you have in mind?
    He said he would be 100% supportive of all the Leadership candidates including Corbyn if he won
    Thanks. That seems quite a bold promise when you don't know what they are going to do but it also seems to me that that should be the role of the deputy. I don't really buy this independent mandate stuff. If he is unable to support the leadership I am not sure he should remain in office. What exactly does he hope to achieve?

    That said, the party seems to have listened so far as Hodge is concerned.
    But even that was mishandled with the statement Margaret Hodge had apologised which was swiftly demolished by her lawyers
    I am not sure many will care about that for more than a couple of minutes. But giving up on Hodge while persevering with Austen seems silly. Labour really, really need to move on from this frankly bizarre row. Just in case it starts to rain or something and people have a spare moment or two to check in.
    I agree to an extent but until they accept the full definition this is not going away and indeed in acceptance it would throw up a lot more different problems for Corbyn
    It remains bizarre. Differentiating between the appalling policies of Israel and the right of Jewish people to be treated with dignity and respect really shouldn't be hard, even for someone as thick as Corbyn. I know that Labour have these weird delusions about somehow being more moral or pure than anyone else and that this kind of nonsense is what the Guardianistas thrive on but really. Where the hell are our opposition?
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,718
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    If the politicians we have fuck it up then they will face the ballot box and can be removed.

    That's democracy.

    "let them eat sovereignty"

    It doesn't help the immediate catastrophe.
    Immediate catastrophes happen regularly. Even the worst case scenarios aren't as bad as 2007 and the evidence is that the risks have been overstated.

    Would you sacrifice democracy to avoid a single one off recession? I would not.
    Brexit: not as bad as the Global Financial Crisis.
    Was that on the bus?
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    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    If the politicians we have fuck it up then they will face the ballot box and can be removed.

    That's democracy.

    "let them eat sovereignty"

    It doesn't help the immediate catastrophe.
    Immediate catastrophes happen regularly. Even the worst case scenarios aren't as bad as 2007 and the evidence is that the risks have been overstated.

    Would you sacrifice democracy to avoid a single one off recession? I would not.
    Brexit: not as bad as the Global Financial Crisis.
    'Brexit: Not as bad as the Black Death' was my favourite

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/1001882420147310592?lang=en
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007
    It would have helped all along if the EU had offered some concession on free movement to reflect the fact that Blair did not impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,613
    Nigelb said:

    The price of criticising a Saudi Arabia can be steep:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/two-words-from-canada-just-made-saudi-arabia-furious/566870/

    Trudeau seems to have managed the worst of all options - selling arms to an unpleasant regime and falling out with them at the same time.

    And the price of trading with Iran, now even steeper:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/07/iran-braces-for-new-round-of-us-economic-sanctions

    The division of the world into sets of antagonists who demand that you are either with them or against them is not an appealing prospect.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    So temporary then.

    We are clearly not going to agree on this, but the depth of the catastrophe is the issue.

    You can't typically come back from a temporary case of death. A future promise of oxygen is worthless when you have already suffocated. A ladder is no help when you are lying crushed on the rocks, etc...

    You think there will be no serious immediate and lasting damage, in the hope of something in the future.

    I think the damage of no deal, would be immediate and catastrophic.

    I hope it doesn't happen
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,306
    Anazina said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news this trial seems to be proceeding sub optimally: https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/ben-stokes-trial-live-latest-1865220

    This is always the way when the prosecution goes first. The tone will change entirely once the defence gets in on the act. Shades of the Nigella case.
    Absolutely not my experience over the last 30 years. I don't do much crime these days but when I did prosecute the low point of the Crown case was always when it closed. Defendants giving evidence nearly always improves things for the Crown. That is why so many accused choose not to give evidence.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Top marks for cattiness go to Heidi:

    And Tory MP Heidi Allen tweeted that his comments made him "about as suitable to be PM as he was foreign secretary".

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,613
    Anazina said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news this trial seems to be proceeding sub optimally: https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/ben-stokes-trial-live-latest-1865220

    This is always the way when the prosecution goes first. The tone will change entirely once the defence gets in on the act. Shades of the Nigella case.
    Perhaps not, if you have a cranky judge apparently on your side:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/06/manafort-trial-judge-prosecution-765100

    I realise US law is far from identical to ours, but is this kind of thing normal ?
    And is the judge just a short tempered old codger, or is his thumb on the scales ?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    So temporary then.

    We are clearly not going to agree on this, but the depth of the catastrophe is the issue.

    You can't typically come back from a temporary case of death. A future promise of oxygen is worthless when you have already suffocated. A ladder is no help when you are lying crushed on the rocks, etc...

    You think there will be no serious immediate and lasting damage, in the hope of something in the future.

    I think the damage of no deal, would be immediate and catastrophic.

    I hope it doesn't happen
    It doesn't have to be that dramatic.

    Leavers simply seem not to understand the time value of money, or the theory of discounting and NPV. The likely value destruction of Brexit is tragic.

    Doesn't matter too much of course if you are a well off Leaver, that said.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    edited August 2018

    Anazina said:

    Financial Times compared the contest between Flint and Watson to the hotly contested 1981 deputy leadership election between Denis Healey and the leftist Tony Benn.

    Watson claimed to be the left wing candidate in reality no left wing candidates were on the ballot

    Watson is rightwing because he thinks Labour have a problem with antisemitism among some of their members? I beg to differ.
    He is rightwing because he is rightwing.

    He votes consistently with Progress. calls everyone to his left Trot Entryists, is funded by LFI, tried to keep Corbyn as leader off the ballot in 2016
    Watson is NOT right-wing! Rees-Mogg is right-wing, Farage is right-wing, Bannon is right-wing; Watson is merely moderate left-of-centre.

    Can you get it into your dumb brain BigJohn that calling Watson right wing reinforces the view that Labour has been taken over by crazed marxist infiltrators and puts-off voters like me, who would otherwise be willing to give Labour's manifesto ideas a try.

    If you want to see those kind of policies enacted you need to attract votes from people well to the right of Watson.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,336
    DavidL said:

    Anazina said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news this trial seems to be proceeding sub optimally: https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/ben-stokes-trial-live-latest-1865220

    This is always the way when the prosecution goes first. The tone will change entirely once the defence gets in on the act. Shades of the Nigella case.
    Absolutely not my experience over the last 30 years. I don't do much crime these days but when I did prosecute the low point of the Crown case was always when it closed. Defendants giving evidence nearly always improves things for the Crown. That is why so many accused choose not to give evidence.
    Is that because the defendants tend to be unconvincing in manner, or just because they are then exposed to detailed questioning that they could otherwise avoid?
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Anazina said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news this trial seems to be proceeding sub optimally: https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/ben-stokes-trial-live-latest-1865220

    This is always the way when the prosecution goes first. The tone will change entirely once the defence gets in on the act. Shades of the Nigella case.
    Perhaps not, if you have a cranky judge apparently on your side:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/06/manafort-trial-judge-prosecution-765100

    I realise US law is far from identical to ours, but is this kind of thing normal ?
    And is the judge just a short tempered old codger, or is his thumb on the scales ?
    The judge T.S. Ellis III studied Law at Oxford University, it is well known they are so full of themselves.

    As a general rule American judges are a bit showy, a lot of them have to win elections, although in this case he was appointed rather than elected.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Scott_P said:

    If the politicians we have fuck it up then they will face the ballot box and can be removed.

    That's democracy.

    "let them eat sovereignty"

    It doesn't help the immediate catastrophe.
    Immediate catastrophes happen regularly. Even the worst case scenarios aren't as bad as 2007 and the evidence is that the risks have been overstated.

    Would you sacrifice democracy to avoid a single one off recession? I would not.
    Can we sacrifice your job and life first? You seem quite keen to do that for others.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,336
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Tories down 4% since GE17, Labour down 2%, LDs up 3%, UKIP up 4%, Greens up 1%
    Taken at the height of the anti-semitism debate plus a constant stream of news about Brexit deal struggles. Electorate says "oh well, i'll vote like I said last month".
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    So temporary then.

    We are clearly not going to agree on this, but the depth of the catastrophe is the issue.

    You can't typically come back from a temporary case of death. A future promise of oxygen is worthless when you have already suffocated. A ladder is no help when you are lying crushed on the rocks, etc...

    You think there will be no serious immediate and lasting damage, in the hope of something in the future.

    I think the damage of no deal, would be immediate and catastrophic.

    I hope it doesn't happen
    It doesn't have to be that dramatic.

    Leavers simply seem not to understand the time value of money, or the theory of discounting and NPV. The likely value destruction of Brexit is tragic.

    Doesn't matter too much of course if you are a well off Leaver, that said.
    What we need is a negotiator of Charles' calibre to step in and get us a deal *better than BATNA* to save jobs and keep things going as they are.
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    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    Anazina said:

    Financial Times compared the contest between Flint and Watson to the hotly contested 1981 deputy leadership election between Denis Healey and the leftist Tony Benn.

    Watson claimed to be the left wing candidate in reality no left wing candidates were on the ballot

    Watson is rightwing because he thinks Labour have a problem with antisemitism among some of their members? I beg to differ.
    He is rightwing because he is rightwing.

    He votes consistently with Progress. calls everyone to his left Trot Entryists, is funded by LFI, tried to keep Corbyn as leader off the ballot in 2016
    Watson right wing, really - the point is Corbyn and his cabal are hard left marxists so seen through his supporters anyone who does not bow to the cult is right wing
    Which Marx, Groucho, Chico, Harpo or & Spencer. Most people have never read Karl or even know of him, and that includes many in the Labour party. If you tried, and I have, to read Das Kapital, you would find it the greatest sophoric book around, as well as being a book of it's time - the 1880's rather than the 2000's. That so many regard Marxism as a slang or shorthand name calling for any one who doesn't suck to their own neo-liberalist views just indicates to me how poorly educated and thinking they are.
    And before you try slagging me off, I should perhaps also admit to reading many different economic philosophers right, left and centre, in my time, as well as most of the different religious holy books, military and many others. To try and understand what others believe in, can actually help communicate rather than shouting at people till you think they understand what you want.....
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    So temporary then.

    We are clearly not going to agree on this, but the depth of the catastrophe is the issue.

    You can't typically come back from a temporary case of death. A future promise of oxygen is worthless when you have already suffocated. A ladder is no help when you are lying crushed on the rocks, etc...

    You think there will be no serious immediate and lasting damage, in the hope of something in the future.

    I think the damage of no deal, would be immediate and catastrophic.

    I hope it doesn't happen
    It doesn't have to be that dramatic.

    Leavers simply seem not to understand the time value of money, or the theory of discounting and NPV. The likely value destruction of Brexit is tragic.

    Doesn't matter too much of course if you are a well off Leaver, that said.
    What we need is a negotiator of Charles' calibre to step in and get us a deal *better than BATNA* to save jobs and keep things going as they are.
    The country couldn't afford him.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860

    Anazina said:

    Financial Times compared the contest between Flint and Watson to the hotly contested 1981 deputy leadership election between Denis Healey and the leftist Tony Benn.

    Watson claimed to be the left wing candidate in reality no left wing candidates were on the ballot

    Watson is rightwing because he thinks Labour have a problem with antisemitism among some of their members? I beg to differ.
    He is rightwing because he is rightwing.

    He votes consistently with Progress. calls everyone to his left Trot Entryists, is funded by LFI, tried to keep Corbyn as leader off the ballot in 2016
    Watson is NOT right-wing! Rees-Mogg is right-wing, Farage is right-wing, Bannon is right-wing; Watson is merely moderate left-of-centre.

    Can you get it into your dumb brain BigJohn that calling Watson right wing reinforces the view that Labour has been taken over by crazed marxist infiltrators and puts-off voters like me, who would otherwise be willing to give Labour's manifesto ideas a try.

    If you want to see those kind of policies enacted you need to attract votes from people well to the right of Watson.
    My dumb brain cannot compute.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Immediate catastrophes happen regularly. Even the worst case scenarios aren't as bad as 2007 and the evidence is that the risks have been overstated.

    That is not true.

    The worst case scenarios are that planes will stop flying (didn't happen in 2007), Medicines will be in short supply (didn't happen in 2007), we will run out of food (didn't happen in 2007) and policing will be degraded (didn't happen in 2007).
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The country couldn't afford him.

    We are already paying the cost
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,304
    Clearly, in the wake of the 'Tommy Robinson' circus coming to town, Boris decided to base his relaunch around a controversial subject that would also win him the approbation of the hard Right. But it all looked clumsy and contrived, and the quips about letterboxes etc. just juvenile in that context. I think Boris has flunked it.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited August 2018
    Scott_P said:
    Wasn't this the sort of thing that people on the left got very very angry at Milo Yiannopoulos for doing over some crap film? Alt-Right / Alt-Left, different cheeks of the same arse.

    It amounts to cyber-bullying.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited August 2018

    Anazina said:

    Financial Times compared the contest between Flint and Watson to the hotly contested 1981 deputy leadership election between Denis Healey and the leftist Tony Benn.

    Watson claimed to be the left wing candidate in reality no left wing candidates were on the ballot

    Watson is rightwing because he thinks Labour have a problem with antisemitism among some of their members? I beg to differ.
    He is rightwing because he is rightwing.

    He votes consistently with Progress. calls everyone to his left Trot Entryists, is funded by LFI, tried to keep Corbyn as leader off the ballot in 2016
    Watson is NOT right-wing! Rees-Mogg is right-wing, Farage is right-wing, Bannon is right-wing; Watson is merely moderate left-of-centre.

    Can you get it into your dumb brain BigJohn that calling Watson right wing reinforces the view that Labour has been taken over by crazed marxist infiltrators and puts-off voters like me, who would otherwise be willing to give Labour's manifesto ideas a try.

    If you want to see those kind of policies enacted you need to attract votes from people well to the right of Watson.
    My dumb brain cannot compute.
    You have clearly spent too much time on the alt-left conspiracy loon websites.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Scott_P said:

    Immediate catastrophes happen regularly. Even the worst case scenarios aren't as bad as 2007 and the evidence is that the risks have been overstated.

    That is not true.

    The worst case scenarios are that planes will stop flying (didn't happen in 2007), Medicines will be in short supply (didn't happen in 2007), we will run out of food (didn't happen in 2007) and policing will be degraded (didn't happen in 2007).
    It's a risk worth taking, apparently. Low probability, (not, perhaps) high consequence. Still it's all apparently worth it in some ill-defined and fuzzy way.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Of course immigration pushes up house prices. It's not the main factor, or the only factor - but it certainly creates an increase in demand..
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    I see Morris Dancer has been advising Penny Mordaunt.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1026793851112091648

    The modern conception of the nation state didn't come into existence until after WW1 anyway, so I think the argument is entirely meaningless.

    But Iceland's Parliament has sat nearly continuously since 930 AD so I think it has any constitutional body in Europe beaten by centuries.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Anazina said:

    Financial Times compared the contest between Flint and Watson to the hotly contested 1981 deputy leadership election between Denis Healey and the leftist Tony Benn.

    Watson claimed to be the left wing candidate in reality no left wing candidates were on the ballot

    Watson is rightwing because he thinks Labour have a problem with antisemitism among some of their members? I beg to differ.
    He is rightwing because he is rightwing.

    He votes consistently with Progress. calls everyone to his left Trot Entryists, is funded by LFI, tried to keep Corbyn as leader off the ballot in 2016
    Watson is NOT right-wing! Rees-Mogg is right-wing, Farage is right-wing, Bannon is right-wing; Watson is merely moderate left-of-centre.

    Can you get it into your dumb brain BigJohn that calling Watson right wing reinforces the view that Labour has been taken over by crazed marxist infiltrators and puts-off voters like me, who would otherwise be willing to give Labour's manifesto ideas a try.

    If you want to see those kind of policies enacted you need to attract votes from people well to the right of Watson.
    My dumb brain cannot compute.
    You have clearly spent too much time on the alt-left conspiracy loon websites.
    I love how you talk about "alt-left loon sites" while repeatedly posting links to Guido Fawkes, without a hint of irony.
This discussion has been closed.