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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those whom the Gods wish to destroy. What happens next now tha

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited August 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those whom the Gods wish to destroy. What happens next now that Britain has gone mad

At Deltapoll, we asked Leave voters in Britain to choose between leaving the #EU and peace in #NorthernIreland. Nearly 6 out of 10 said the UK leaving the EU was more important. #Brexit pic.twitter.com/0FqMJAJZgN

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,514
    edited August 8
    Probably not first (but you never know!)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,071
    Possibly not even second.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,328
    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,071
    It would be possible to say without exaggeration that the Brexit leaders were the stupidest men in England if we had not frequent occasion to meet the Remainers.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 1,169
    Now we know Brexiteers are mad?

    NOW we know?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,514

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Except it patently didn't ask "whether a small bunch of violent criminals... should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole"; it asked whether you'd rather leave the EU than have peace in Northern Ireland.

    No amount of dressing it up can change the fact that, in this poll, a majority of leavers profess they would be ready to sacrifice peace in NI.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,190

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.

    Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,216

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    If we add the third of Leavers who think sacrificing peace in Northern Ireland isn't a price worth paying to the Remainers, the democratic decision would be to Remain.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 972

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Well put Richard. Agree entirely.

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 1,169
    I think one of May's unforced errors has been to significantly overestimate the intelligence of quite a few people, from Davis, Fox, Boris and JRM to Leo Varadkar, Juncker, Corbyn and Oliver Robbins.

    In fact, she overestimates so many people, so often, it looks like a serious character flaw.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,450
    edited August 8
    Except Brexit will make zero difference to either Scottish independence (as proved by the fact the SNP lost over a third of their seats after the Brexit vote and won just 37% at the 2017 general election despite winning 50% at the 2015 general election before the Brexit vote) and zero difference to peace in Northern Ireland given Sinn Fein broke the powersharing agreement at Stormont which had nothing to do with Brexit and Protestants in Northern Ireland voted to Leave the EU and Catholics voted to Remain in the EU.

    The divisions in Scotland are primarily Unionist v Nationalist, the divisions in Northern Ireland Protestant Unionist v Catholic Nationalist, Brexit has made no difference to that at all. Devomax is more important to most Scots than reversing the Brexit vote and any move for NI to join the Republic will come if it gains a Catholic majority, again not because of Brexit and even then the majority Protestant counties will insist on staying in the UK
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,909
    I doubt if ten million or so people are actually mad, as opposed to expressing views that the author doesn't like.

    These questions are along the lines of "when did you last stop beating your wife?" The best response is not to respond.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 17,015
    Scott_P said:
    This one just runs and runs doesn't it.

    Labour must be extremely relieved that no one outside us junkies is paying any attention as it is hot and summer holidays.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,450
    Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain, not forgetting most polls overestimated Remain before the EU referendum anyway
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,514
    nielh said:

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.

    Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.
    It's an interesting point about the Troubles being forgotten - the over 50s (who tend to be most heavily Leave) are the very ones who should remember how shitty those times were... not just in Northern Ireland.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 1,169
    I don't wish to defend Corbyn or his lackeys, but...

    Well, it *is* okay to accuse Israel of attempted genocide isn't it? Countries get accused of attempted or successful genocide all the time.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,906

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.

    Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,190
    This all goes back to central problem associated with Brexit. Why did the government give people the option of voting for something that would cause total chaos?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,216
    HYUFD said:

    Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,

    You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,906
    nielh said:

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.

    Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.
    Indeed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,216

    nielh said:

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.

    Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.
    It's an interesting point about the Troubles being forgotten - the over 50s (who tend to be most heavily Leave) are the very ones who should remember how shitty those times were... not just in Northern Ireland.
    I'm struck by the number of people claiming that Ireland joining the Euro was somehow equivalent to Brexit, as if they think it was using the same currency as the UK before then. Ignorance and arrogance abounds.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,909
    nielh said:

    This all goes back to central problem associated with Brexit. Why did the government give people the option of voting for something that would cause total chaos?

    Because they don't expect it to cause total chaos?

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 1,169
    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:

    This all goes back to central problem associated with Brexit. Why did the government give people the option of voting for something that would cause total chaos?

    Because they don't expect it to cause total chaos?

    I did. But I'm clever.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,906

    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:

    This all goes back to central problem associated with Brexit. Why did the government give people the option of voting for something that would cause total chaos?

    Because they don't expect it to cause total chaos?

    I did. But I'm clever.
    Ugh. An expert.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,514

    I think one of May's unforced errors has been to significantly overestimate the intelligence of quite a few people, from Davis, Fox, Boris and JRM to Leo Varadkar, Juncker, Corbyn and Oliver Robbins.

    In fact, she overestimates so many people, so often, it looks like a serious character flaw.

    Are you sure you're not overestimating May?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,328

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Except it patently didn't ask "whether a small bunch of violent criminals... should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole"; it asked whether you'd rather leave the EU than have peace in Northern Ireland.

    No amount of dressing it up can change the fact that, in this poll, a majority of leavers profess they would be ready to sacrifice peace in NI.
    I voted Remain, but I don't think criminals in Ireland should decide whether Brexit goes ahead. So, faced with this false dichotomy, what would I be supposed to answer? Saying 'Don't know' seems a bit feeble, so as far as I can see the nearest response which is correct is the one Alastair says is bonkers. Well, maybe, but it seems more bonkers to take the other side of the question.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,909

    nielh said:

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.

    Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.
    It's an interesting point about the Troubles being forgotten - the over 50s (who tend to be most heavily Leave) are the very ones who should remember how shitty those times were... not just in Northern Ireland.
    I expect most of us don't prioritise the wishes of Irish Republicans when we cast our votes.

  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 90
    The pain of the cretin writing this piece is brings me far more joy than it probably should.

    Superb!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,216
    Jim Sciutto - Verified account @jimsciutto

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    - They are mandated under the 1991 Chemical & Biological Weapons Control & Warfare Elimination Act for chemical weapons use.
    - WH blew past the law's 60-day deadline by a month.

    The law mandates a second, more Draconian round of sanctions unless:
    -Russia assures the US it is no longer using chemical or biological weapons
    -Russia allows onsite inspectors to ensure the government is not using chem/bio weapons

    That second round could include:
    - Ending flights to US by Russian national carrier Aeroflot
    - Banning all/most Russian imports/exports with US
    - cutting off diplomatic relations

    Russia now has 90 days to comply.

    **90 days from today is Election Day**
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,083

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Precisely!

    My grandparents generation lived through a war where people weren't just prepared to have a small conflict in a small part of the country to secure our rights. They were prepared to sacrifice their lives and peace across the globe to fight for our rights. We forget that at our peril.

    Democracy is more important than Brexit. It is more important than peace.

    Put it another way had we voted narrowly to remain and then UKIP turned into a terrorist organisation and started a bombing campaign to get us to leave ... would you have considered remaining as we had voted to do more important or less important than avoiding a conflict? Would you be prepared to give a hypothetical terrorist Farage by bombs and bullets what he failed to get at the ballot box?
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,190
    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:

    This all goes back to central problem associated with Brexit. Why did the government give people the option of voting for something that would cause total chaos?

    Because they don't expect it to cause total chaos?

    You don't think this is total chaos?

    We were told by the stronger In campaign to vote remain to avoid chaos.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 17,015
    Scott_P said:
    Parity, here we come. Perhaps we should join :lol:???
  • Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right.
    Actually, it's more like Anti Semites to the left, Islamophobes to the right. Or is it xenophobic, racist little Englanders to the right, socialist, jew baiting cultists to the left, pious, smug liberal tossers in the middle?
    So difficult to know what insults to throw at people now, there are so many worthy of insulting.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,906

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Except it patently didn't ask "whether a small bunch of violent criminals... should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole"; it asked whether you'd rather leave the EU than have peace in Northern Ireland.

    No amount of dressing it up can change the fact that, in this poll, a majority of leavers profess they would be ready to sacrifice peace in NI.
    I voted Remain, but I don't think criminals in Ireland should decide whether Brexit goes ahead. So, faced with this false dichotomy, what would I be supposed to answer? Saying 'Don't know' seems a bit feeble, so as far as I can see the nearest response which is correct is the one Alastair says is bonkers. Well, maybe, but it seems more bonkers to take the other side of the question.
    Do you think Irish nationalists are all criminals?

    I mean there was an ok PB thread header on this a short while ago.

    *blushes*
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,328
    TOPPING said:

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.

    Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?
    That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,514

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Except it patently didn't ask "whether a small bunch of violent criminals... should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole"; it asked whether you'd rather leave the EU than have peace in Northern Ireland.

    No amount of dressing it up can change the fact that, in this poll, a majority of leavers profess they would be ready to sacrifice peace in NI.
    I voted Remain, but I don't think criminals in Ireland should decide whether Brexit goes ahead. So, faced with this false dichotomy, what would I be supposed to answer? Saying 'Don't know' seems a bit feeble, so as far as I can see the nearest response which is correct is the one Alastair says is bonkers. Well, maybe, but it seems more bonkers to take the other side of the question.
    Tbh my heart isn't in the argument against you... the poll was a pretty stupid one.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,909
    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:

    This all goes back to central problem associated with Brexit. Why did the government give people the option of voting for something that would cause total chaos?

    Because they don't expect it to cause total chaos?

    You don't think this is total chaos?

    We were told by the stronger In campaign to vote remain to avoid chaos.
    No.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,264
    I've always believed the majority of people are wrong — for believing that football is more interesting than tennis and cricket.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,909

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Precisely!

    My grandparents generation lived through a war where people weren't just prepared to have a small conflict in a small part of the country to secure our rights. They were prepared to sacrifice their lives and peace across the globe to fight for our rights. We forget that at our peril.

    Democracy is more important than Brexit. It is more important than peace.

    Put it another way had we voted narrowly to remain and then UKIP turned into a terrorist organisation and started a bombing campaign to get us to leave ... would you have considered remaining as we had voted to do more important or less important than avoiding a conflict? Would you be prepared to give a hypothetical terrorist Farage by bombs and bullets what he failed to get at the ballot box?
    Many people who voted Conservative in 1983 must have known it would piss off both the NUM and the IRA, but that was not a strong argument against voting Conservative.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,216

    TOPPING said:

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.

    Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?
    That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).
    Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,450

    HYUFD said:

    Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,

    You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.
    Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.

    It also had a 7% lead for leave with a deal or leave with no deal over Remain

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,685
    ‘Some commentators tried to explain this away as an unwillingness among Leavers to be cowed by terrorism.’

    A number of appalling Islamic terrorist atrocities occurred during the referendum campaign. Sadly there were Leavers on here and elsewhere practically salivating over how that would be ‘great for Leave’ in the forthcoming polls. So that rings hollow.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,352

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    I might argue the Leave vote was itself a false dichotomy.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,190
    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.

    Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.
    It's an interesting point about the Troubles being forgotten - the over 50s (who tend to be most heavily Leave) are the very ones who should remember how shitty those times were... not just in Northern Ireland.
    I expect most of us don't prioritise the wishes of Irish Republicans when we cast our votes.

    It isn't about the wishes of Irish republicans. The whole peace process in Northern Ireland was based on both the UK and Ireland being in the EU.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,450
    edited August 8
    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.

    Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.
    It's an interesting point about the Troubles being forgotten - the over 50s (who tend to be most heavily Leave) are the very ones who should remember how shitty those times were... not just in Northern Ireland.
    I expect most of us don't prioritise the wishes of Irish Republicans when we cast our votes.

    It isn't about the wishes of Irish republicans. The whole peace process in Northern Ireland was based on both the UK and Ireland being in the EU.
    A majority of Northern Ireland Protestants voted to Leave the EU, the peace process was brought about by powersharing at Stormont which SF ended, not staying in the EU
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,959
    Scott_P said:
    Maybe if Israel didn't murder so many Palestinians and then boast about it on Twitter there'd be less genocide allegations.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,906

    TOPPING said:

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.

    Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?
    That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).
    Thanks Richard.

    I don't think it is (a hard border, the inevitable consequence of us leaving the SM/CU) but they're going to have to get pretty creative around the solution if there isn't to be one.

    I haven't read the question for the poll, but I don't think reducing it to "criminals" will aid peoples' understanding.

    And also, very interestingly and well stated, @Johnito described the reality of situation well in his post in response to that header. Now, this is also not to say that because we can't police it any more we should accept it, but them's the facts on the ground and it's not just the Crown Forces strength that has changed.

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/1996327#Comment_1996327
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,083

    TOPPING said:

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.

    Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?
    That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).
    Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.
    Let's get on with it then.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,909
    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.

    Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.
    It's an interesting point about the Troubles being forgotten - the over 50s (who tend to be most heavily Leave) are the very ones who should remember how shitty those times were... not just in Northern Ireland.
    I expect most of us don't prioritise the wishes of Irish Republicans when we cast our votes.

    It isn't about the wishes of Irish republicans. The whole peace process in Northern Ireland was based on both the UK and Ireland being in the EU.
    Well it's certainly not Unionists who would cut up rough over Brexit.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,514

    Scott_P said:
    Parity, here we come. Perhaps we should join :lol:???
    We did hit parity for a short time in late December 2008 - in fact we must have dipped below 1EUR per GBP briefly because I distinctly remember one of our trading systems couldn't handle that and was giving money away one night - we had to quickly shut it down and fix it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,328
    edited August 8

    Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.

    Nothing semantic about it at all. Currently it's illegal to buy a truckload of booze or fags in Belfast and ship it to Dublin for sale, without declaring it and paying a fat sum to the Irish customs. Tariif divergence. And you can't buy a load of fireworks and take them across the border (legally) at all - regulatory divergence. So there's already a hard border, right?

    I've made this point dozens of times. It has always been ignored by those trying to pretend that somehow tariffs and/or regulatory differences would somehow spontaneously cause border posts to spring out of the bogs, despite the fact that not a single human on this earth wants them.

    They are sensible to ignore the point, of course - because it is incontrovertible.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,712
    I admire Alastair's ability to switch from complaining how much Brexit has divided Britain to calling a big chunk of Leave voters 'feral'.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,712

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Precisely!

    My grandparents generation lived through a war where people weren't just prepared to have a small conflict in a small part of the country to secure our rights. They were prepared to sacrifice their lives and peace across the globe to fight for our rights. We forget that at our peril.

    Democracy is more important than Brexit. It is more important than peace.

    Put it another way had we voted narrowly to remain and then UKIP turned into a terrorist organisation and started a bombing campaign to get us to leave ... would you have considered remaining as we had voted to do more important or less important than avoiding a conflict? Would you be prepared to give a hypothetical terrorist Farage by bombs and bullets what he failed to get at the ballot box?
    Good point. +1
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,916
    edited August 8

    Scott_P said:
    Parity, here we come. Perhaps we should join :lol:???
    Maybe we should join before we hit parity and continue to the point where parity would look excellent.

    Soon the Pound will be worth tuppence :)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,216
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,

    You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.
    Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
    Err I think you're looking at the past vote recollection question.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,216

    TOPPING said:

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.

    Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?
    That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).
    Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.
    Let's get on with it then.
    Get on with what? Having a referendum in Northern Ireland on special status in the EU to let them decide?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 19,818

    ‘Some commentators tried to explain this away as an unwillingness among Leavers to be cowed by terrorism.’

    A number of appalling Islamic terrorist atrocities occurred during the referendum campaign. Sadly there were Leavers on here and elsewhere practically salivating over how that would be ‘great for Leave’ in the forthcoming polls. So that rings hollow.

    No they didn't.

    They occurred during the 2017 Genral Election. So your post is wank.

    The only attack during the Referendum camapign was the killing of Jo Cox.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,909

    Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.

    Nothing semantic about it at all. Currently it's illegal to buy a truckload of booze or fags in Belfast and ship it to Dublin for sale, without declaring it and paying a fat sum to the Irish customs. Tariif divergence. And you can't buy a load of fireworks and take them across the border (legally) at all - regulatory divergence. So there's already a hard border, right?

    I've made this point dozens of times. It has always been ignored by those trying to pretend that somehow tariffs and/or regulatory differences would somehow spontaneously cause border posts to spring out of the bogs, despite the fact that not a single human on this earth wants them.

    They are sensible to ignore the point, of course - because it is incontrovertible.
    There's very much a hard border in terms of the two jurisdictions' treatment of corporate taxation.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,909

    Scott_P said:
    Parity, here we come. Perhaps we should join :lol:???
    Maybe we should join before we hit parity and continue to the point where parity would look excellent.

    Soon the Pound will be worth tuppence :)

    A good time to buy shares.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,450

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,

    You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.
    Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
    Err I think you're looking at the past vote recollection question.
    OK my mistake but there was still a 7% lead for leave with no deal/leave with a deal over Remain
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,514
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,

    You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.
    Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.

    It also had a 7% lead for leave with a deal or leave with no deal over Remain

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
    Doh! That "Leave 52% Remain 48%." is in answer to "And how did you vote in the referendum?"
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,959
    edited August 8
    This is where the press will lose the general public in the Labour antisemitism stuff. We've just had a series of incontrovertible anti-semitic acts by various Labour party figures and the incredible proximity of Corbyn to many of these acts and equivocation over then. It's a slam dunk open and shut case - Corbyn should fucking resign in disgrace. It's clear and obvious.

    But the treatment of the Palestinians by the Israeli government is terrible and nuanced and lots of people are going to go "does this mean we can't criticise Israel at all? That's not right" if you start attacking people for criticing Israel's treatment of the Palestinians.

    Stick to the clear as day vile antisemitism, don't drag Israeli government actions into the mix.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 1,169
    edited August 8
    Comparing Israel to the Nazis is antisemitic.
    Accusing Israel of "genocide against the Palestinians" certainly is not, unless it also triggers some of the other definitions too.

    If accusing Israel of genocide were prima facie antisemitic, would make it effectively impossible to criticise Israel even if it were doing a genocide. That's obviously not desirable.

    McDonnell is walking a dangerous line here, but unlike Corbyn he's smart enough to remain on the plausible deniability side.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,450

    Scott_P said:
    Parity, here we come. Perhaps we should join :lol:???
    Maybe we should join before we hit parity and continue to the point where parity would look excellent.

    Soon the Pound will be worth tuppence :)
    Maybe we should join the Euro and swap the 9% unemployment of the worst hard Brexit forecasts for the 16% unemployment in Spain, the 20% unemployment in Greece or the 10% unemployment in Italy in the Eurozone?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,216
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,

    You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.
    Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
    Err I think you're looking at the past vote recollection question.
    OK my mistake but there was still a 7% lead for leave with no deal/leave with a deal over Remain
    Given that they prompted people with this definition of No Deal I would disregard that poll:

    Leaving the EU with no deal – this will mean:

    • it will be more difficult and more expensive to trade with countries in the EU
    • the UK will be able to agree new trade deals with non-EU countries
    • the UK will not be subject to any EU regulations.
    • the UK will have control over immigration from EU countries and British citizens' right to live in EU countries will be limited
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,906

    Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.

    Nothing semantic about it at all. Currently it's illegal to buy a truckload of booze or fags in Belfast and ship it to Dublin for sale, without declaring it and paying a fat sum to the Irish customs. Tariif divergence. And you can't buy a load of fireworks and take them across the border (legally) at all - regulatory divergence. So there's already a hard border, right?

    I've made this point dozens of times. It has always been ignored by those trying to pretend that somehow tariffs and/or regulatory differences would somehow spontaneously cause border posts to spring out of the bogs, despite the fact that not a single human on this earth wants them.

    They are sensible to ignore the point, of course - because it is incontrovertible.
    There has been and is now smuggling. It is a huge issue. But, if I may borrow a phrase from our PB Leavers, it has been accepted as a price worth paying.

    “I do think that a blind eye has been turned for some time for the sake of not wanting to rock the boat but I think in the long term the existence and the entrenchment of these actors in Northern Ireland is deeply problematic also to the peace process,”

    https://irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/hard-brexit-will-lead-to-surge-in-cross-border-smuggling-says-report-1.3359154
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,083

    Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.

    Nothing semantic about it at all. Currently it's illegal to buy a truckload of booze or fags in Belfast and ship it to Dublin for sale, without declaring it and paying a fat sum to the Irish customs. Tariif divergence. And you can't buy a load of fireworks and take them across the border (legally) at all - regulatory divergence. So there's already a hard border, right?

    I've made this point dozens of times. It has always been ignored by those trying to pretend that somehow tariffs and/or regulatory differences would somehow spontaneously cause border posts to spring out of the bogs, despite the fact that not a single human on this earth wants them.

    They are sensible to ignore the point, of course - because it is incontrovertible.
    Well said.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,450

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,

    You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.
    Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
    Err I think you're looking at the past vote recollection question.
    OK my mistake but there was still a 7% lead for leave with no deal/leave with a deal over Remain
    Given that they prompted people with this definition of No Deal I would disregard that poll:

    Leaving the EU with no deal – this will mean:

    • it will be more difficult and more expensive to trade with countries in the EU
    • the UK will be able to agree new trade deals with non-EU countries
    • the UK will not be subject to any EU regulations.
    • the UK will have control over immigration from EU countries and British citizens' right to live in EU countries will be limited
    That is the correct definition of No Deal so no problem there
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,514
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    Parity, here we come. Perhaps we should join :lol:???
    Maybe we should join before we hit parity and continue to the point where parity would look excellent.

    Soon the Pound will be worth tuppence :)

    A good time to buy shares abroad.
    Suggested improvement (falling pound).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,450
    edited August 8

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,

    You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.
    Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.

    It also had a 7% lead for leave with a deal or leave with no deal over Remain

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
    Doh! That "Leave 52% Remain 48%." is in answer to "And how did you vote in the referendum?"
    Leave with No Deal/Leave with a Deal led Remain by 7% which supports my original point
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,620
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Maybe if Israel didn't murder so many Palestinians and then boast about it on Twitter there'd be less genocide allegations.
    Hasn't the Palestinian population gone UP since Israel was founded?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,909

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,

    You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.
    Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
    Err I think you're looking at the past vote recollection question.
    OK my mistake but there was still a 7% lead for leave with no deal/leave with a deal over Remain
    Given that they prompted people with this definition of No Deal I would disregard that poll:

    Leaving the EU with no deal – this will mean:

    • it will be more difficult and more expensive to trade with countries in the EU
    • the UK will be able to agree new trade deals with non-EU countries
    • the UK will not be subject to any EU regulations.
    • the UK will have control over immigration from EU countries and British citizens' right to live in EU countries will be limited
    That seems fair enough, actually.

    But, I take the point that the more explanation that's required, the more a poll result should be treated with caution.

    Polls are best for answering simple questions, not complex ones.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,216
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,

    You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.
    Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
    Err I think you're looking at the past vote recollection question.
    OK my mistake but there was still a 7% lead for leave with no deal/leave with a deal over Remain
    Given that they prompted people with this definition of No Deal I would disregard that poll:

    Leaving the EU with no deal – this will mean:

    • it will be more difficult and more expensive to trade with countries in the EU
    • the UK will be able to agree new trade deals with non-EU countries
    • the UK will not be subject to any EU regulations.
    • the UK will have control over immigration from EU countries and British citizens' right to live in EU countries will be limited
    That is the correct definition of No Deal so no problem there
    It hardly gives a flavour of how disruptive it would be. On the topic of this thread, what do you think would happen in Northern Ireland in the event of No Deal?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 1,169
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Parity, here we come. Perhaps we should join :lol:???
    Maybe we should join before we hit parity and continue to the point where parity would look excellent.

    Soon the Pound will be worth tuppence :)
    Maybe we should join the Euro and swap the 9% unemployment of the worst hard Brexit forecasts for the 16% unemployment in Spain, the 20% unemployment in Greece or the 10% unemployment in Italy in the Eurozone?
    Maybe we should have that German 3.5% unemployment to the UK's 4.1%?

    Or Germany's 7.7% youth unemployment rate compared to the UK's 15.4%

    Or maybe we could have the Eurozone's 2.8% GDP growth rate rather than the UK's pitiable 1.2%?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,909

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    Parity, here we come. Perhaps we should join :lol:???
    Maybe we should join before we hit parity and continue to the point where parity would look excellent.

    Soon the Pound will be worth tuppence :)

    A good time to buy shares abroad.
    Suggested improvement (falling pound).
    Domestic shares too.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,304
    How about a polling question along the lines of.

    Should be proceed with Brexit along the lines we wish as a nation or be blackmailed by terrorists into doing something else? Because that is the implication of the Brexit with a customs border vs peace in Ireland as being two alternatives.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,328
    TOPPING said:

    There has been and is now smuggling. It is a huge issue. But, if I may borrow a phrase from our PB Leavers, it has been accepted as a price worth paying.

    “I do think that a blind eye has been turned for some time for the sake of not wanting to rock the boat but I think in the long term the existence and the entrenchment of these actors in Northern Ireland is deeply problematic also to the peace process,”

    https://irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/hard-brexit-will-lead-to-surge-in-cross-border-smuggling-says-report-1.3359154

    That's a fair point, albeit a minor one in the overall scheme of things.

    However, realistically, what are the hard men going to do? Continue smuggling high-value, high-profit, easily sellable items like booze, fags, and fuel, or branch out into chlorinated chickens worth next to nothing, or into obscure machine parts which are easily traceable and which can only be sold to big companies?

    One does have to exercise a modicum of common sense in this debate.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,216

    Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.

    Nothing semantic about it at all. Currently it's illegal to buy a truckload of booze or fags in Belfast and ship it to Dublin for sale, without declaring it and paying a fat sum to the Irish customs. Tariif divergence. And you can't buy a load of fireworks and take them across the border (legally) at all - regulatory divergence. So there's already a hard border, right?

    I've made this point dozens of times. It has always been ignored by those trying to pretend that somehow tariffs and/or regulatory differences would somehow spontaneously cause border posts to spring out of the bogs, despite the fact that not a single human on this earth wants them.

    They are sensible to ignore the point, of course - because it is incontrovertible.
    Well said.
    It reminds me of Maria Zakharova in its whataboutism and obfuscation.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,083

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,

    You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.
    Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
    Err I think you're looking at the past vote recollection question.
    OK my mistake but there was still a 7% lead for leave with no deal/leave with a deal over Remain
    Given that they prompted people with this definition of No Deal I would disregard that poll:

    Leaving the EU with no deal – this will mean:

    • it will be more difficult and more expensive to trade with countries in the EU
    • the UK will be able to agree new trade deals with non-EU countries
    • the UK will not be subject to any EU regulations.
    • the UK will have control over immigration from EU countries and British citizens' right to live in EU countries will be limited
    That is the correct definition of No Deal so no problem there
    It hardly gives a flavour of how disruptive it would be. On the topic of this thread, what do you think would happen in Northern Ireland in the event of No Deal?
    About the same as them failing to reach a deal in Stormont.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,352

    TOPPING said:

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.

    Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?
    That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).
    A hard border is the inevitable result of leaving the Single Market and Customs Union. There is hardly a trade expert that doesn't think that. I agree with you that it's isn't useful to frame the question in terms of the end of peace in NI. The key point is that the government prioritizes the potential to diverge from the EU over avoiding a hard border in Ireland. Maybe that's a valid choice for them to make. Nevertheless they are making that choice, which will have ramifications for the future of the Union and relations with Ireland and the rest of the EU.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,909

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,

    You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.
    Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
    Err I think you're looking at the past vote recollection question.
    OK my mistake but there was still a 7% lead for leave with no deal/leave with a deal over Remain
    Given that they prompted people with this definition of No Deal I would disregard that poll:

    Leaving the EU with no deal – this will mean:

    • it will be more difficult and more expensive to trade with countries in the EU
    • the UK will be able to agree new trade deals with non-EU countries
    • the UK will not be subject to any EU regulations.
    • the UK will have control over immigration from EU countries and British citizens' right to live in EU countries will be limited
    That is the correct definition of No Deal so no problem there
    It hardly gives a flavour of how disruptive it would be. On the topic of this thread, what do you think would happen in Northern Ireland in the event of No Deal?
    People will sing and dance with joy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,620
    nielh said:

    This all goes back to central problem associated with Brexit. Why did the government give people the option of voting for something that would cause total chaos?

    "First you let the Leavers have their Referendum, and then you let them go and win it!"
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 1,169
    edited August 8
    Sean_F said:


    It hardly gives a flavour of how disruptive it would be. On the topic of this thread, what do you think would happen in Northern Ireland in the event of No Deal?


    UK is placed into special measures and is run by Goldman Sachs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,450
    edited August 8

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Parity, here we come. Perhaps we should join :lol:???
    Maybe we should join before we hit parity and continue to the point where parity would look excellent.

    Soon the Pound will be worth tuppence :)
    Maybe we should join the Euro and swap the 9% unemployment of the worst hard Brexit forecasts for the 16% unemployment in Spain, the 20% unemployment in Greece or the 10% unemployment in Italy in the Eurozone?
    Maybe we should have that German 3.5% unemployment to the UK's 4.1%?

    Or Germany's 7.7% youth unemployment rate compared to the UK's 15.4%

    Or maybe we could have the Eurozone's 2.8% GDP growth rate rather than the UK's pitiable 1.2%?
    As I have said the Eurozone largely benefits one country and one country alone, Germany, with interest rates and fiscal policy to suit the Germans above all else.

    France, Italy and Spain all have higher unemployment and lower GDP per capita than the UK does. Only Germany of the major Eurozone nations has lower unemployment and higher gdp per capita than the UK does
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,216
    FF43 said:

    A hard border is the inevitable result of leaving the Single Market and Customs Union. There is hardly a trade expert that doesn't think that. I agree with you that it's isn't useful to frame the question in terms of the end of peace in NI. The key point is that the government prioritizes the potential to diverge from the EU over avoiding a hard border in Ireland. Maybe that's a valid choice for them to make. Nevertheless they are making that choice, which will have ramifications for the future of the Union and relations with Ireland and the rest of the EU.

    They're pretending to make that choice, but as of Chequers the pretence has been revealed, which is why Brexiteers are so enraged.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,083

    TOPPING said:

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.

    Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?
    That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).
    Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.
    Let's get on with it then.
    Get on with what? Having a referendum in Northern Ireland on special status in the EU to let them decide?
    No erecting that hard border if the EU won't give us a deal. If the people of NI want a border poll they can back parties putting that into their manifesto at an election.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,328

    Sean_F said:


    It hardly gives a flavour of how disruptive it would be. On the topic of this thread, what do you think would happen in Northern Ireland in the event of No Deal?


    UK is placed into special measures and is run by Goldman Sachs.
    I thought we already were, in common with most of the world?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,093

    Scott_P said:
    This one just runs and runs doesn't it.

    Labour must be extremely relieved that no one outside us junkies is paying any attention as it is hot and summer holidays.
    Yeah - and Boris hasn’t helped.

    Interesting though that after McDonnell’s intervention, which was implicitly critical of Corbyn, all this stuff comes out about what McDonnell has said and done. There’s some backstabbing going on, I think.

    I don't wish to defend Corbyn or his lackeys, but...

    Well, it *is* okay to accuse Israel of attempted genocide isn't it? Countries get accused of attempted or successful genocide all the time.

    Do they? Genocide has a very specific meaning. See the relevant international law on this. Israel can be criticised for its treatment of the Palestinians within the Occupied Territories but it is not committing genocide on any interpretation of the term, let alone legally. Using such overheated language is all part of a concerted campaign to justify Israel’s destruction.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,450

    Sean_F said:


    It hardly gives a flavour of how disruptive it would be. On the topic of this thread, what do you think would happen in Northern Ireland in the event of No Deal?


    UK is placed into special measures and is run by Goldman Sachs.
    Goldman Sachs abolished by Trump and Boris or Corbyn and Sanders?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,236
    Meeks Vs Boris
    Canada Vs Saudi
    Ferals Vs Letterboxes

    The culture wars are truly upon us
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,620
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    This one just runs and runs doesn't it.

    Labour must be extremely relieved that no one outside us junkies is paying any attention as it is hot and summer holidays.
    Yeah - and Boris hasn’t helped.

    Interesting though that after McDonnell’s intervention, which was implicitly critical of Corbyn, all this stuff comes out about what McDonnell has said and done. There’s some backstabbing going on, I think.

    I don't wish to defend Corbyn or his lackeys, but...

    Well, it *is* okay to accuse Israel of attempted genocide isn't it? Countries get accused of attempted or successful genocide all the time.

    Do they? Genocide has a very specific meaning. See the relevant international law on this. Israel can be criticised for its treatment of the Palestinians within the Occupied Territories but it is not committing genocide on any interpretation of the term, let alone legally. Using such overheated language is all part of a concerted campaign to justify Israel’s destruction.

    One could argue the Palestinian population in Palestine has actually gone UP since Israel's foundation.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,906

    TOPPING said:

    There has been and is now smuggling. It is a huge issue. But, if I may borrow a phrase from our PB Leavers, it has been accepted as a price worth paying.

    “I do think that a blind eye has been turned for some time for the sake of not wanting to rock the boat but I think in the long term the existence and the entrenchment of these actors in Northern Ireland is deeply problematic also to the peace process,”

    https://irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/hard-brexit-will-lead-to-surge-in-cross-border-smuggling-says-report-1.3359154

    That's a fair point, albeit a minor one in the overall scheme of things.

    However, realistically, what are the hard men going to do? Continue smuggling high-value, high-profit, easily sellable items like booze, fags, and fuel, or branch out into chlorinated chickens worth next to nothing, or into obscure machine parts which are easily traceable and which can only be sold to big companies?

    One does have to exercise a modicum of common sense in this debate.
    Depends on the symbolism of how they "police" it. Adding chlorinated chicken to a paper list of verboten items or those which have differential tariffs and that's that? Not much, although one extra revenue opportunity.

    Anyone wanting to formalise the inspection process at that entry point (and not before), then much more of an issue.

    I of course have no idea how, where, or when eg. phytosanitary checks are performed. Please don't tell me we don't have an expert on PB to tell us.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,216

    TOPPING said:

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.

    Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?
    That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).
    Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.
    Let's get on with it then.
    Get on with what? Having a referendum in Northern Ireland on special status in the EU to let them decide?
    No erecting that hard border if the EU won't give us a deal. If the people of NI want a border poll they can back parties putting that into their manifesto at an election.
    That's not necessary. The Secretary of State is legally obliged to call a border poll if she feels there would be a majority for unification. We're not far off that threshold.

    image
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,264
    Pulpstar said:

    Meeks Vs Boris
    Canada Vs Saudi
    Ferals Vs Letterboxes

    The culture wars are truly upon us

    We're always 50 years behind California.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,190
    HYUFD said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.

    Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.
    It's an interesting point about the Troubles being forgotten - the over 50s (who tend to be most heavily Leave) are the very ones who should remember how shitty those times were... not just in Northern Ireland.
    I expect most of us don't prioritise the wishes of Irish Republicans when we cast our votes.

    It isn't about the wishes of Irish republicans. The whole peace process in Northern Ireland was based on both the UK and Ireland being in the EU.
    A majority of Northern Ireland Protestants voted to Leave the EU, the peace process was brought about by powersharing at Stormont which SF ended, not staying in the EU
    I don't think anyone sane in Northern Ireland (protestant or catholic) voted for a return to the troubles.

    The problem has been for some time that the English are obsessed with leaving not just the EU but also the single market/customs union and making trade deals with the rest of the world, without really thinking through the consequences of this for Ireland.
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,885
    Lol, just lol. The irony calling leavers unhinged after reading possibly the most unhinged article on PB since I joined a decade ago.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 1,169
    Cyclefree said:



    Do they? Genocide has a very specific meaning. See the relevant international law on this. Israel can be criticised for its treatment of the Palestinians within the Occupied Territories but it is not committing genocide on any interpretation of the term, let alone legally. Using such overheated language is all part of a concerted campaign to justify Israel’s destruction.

    They do by the left. Especially America, which gets accused of genocide fairly frequently. It isn't, sadly, particularly uncommon for countries to attempt eradicate a section of their population, either in whole or in part.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,450

    TOPPING said:

    I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?

    Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.

    Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?
    That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).
    Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.
    Let's get on with it then.
    Get on with what? Having a referendum in Northern Ireland on special status in the EU to let them decide?
    No erecting that hard border if the EU won't give us a deal. If the people of NI want a border poll they can back parties putting that into their manifesto at an election.
    That's not necessary. The Secretary of State is legally obliged to call a border poll if she feels there would be a majority for unification. We're not far off that threshold.

    image
    After SF pulled out of Stormont the GFA is effectively dead anyway for the foreseeable future and with the Government reliant on the DUP to survive no Secretary of State will even consider a border poll
This discussion has been closed.