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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The prospect of Johnson as leader should make Theresa’s positi

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited August 9 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The prospect of Johnson as leader should make Theresa’s position a bit more secure

Much has been written about the incredible resilience of Theresa May who has managed to hang on to her job now for well over a year after losing the party it’s majority in the June 2017 general election.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,991
    edited August 9
    It's not the ridiculous puce shade of that pic that bothers me, it's just the idea that Boris would blush about anything, ever.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 1,001
    Shameless FPT since relevant

    Honestly I think Boris has guaranteed the parliamentary party will do everything in their power to ensure he *never* gets put to the membership.

    Including not moving against May as long as he remains an alternative.

    In his own idiotic way, he's done more to shore up May's precarious position than anyone.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,474
    Third like boris
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,802
    I agree with the header. T. May has made many blunders in both tactics and strategy but I do believe she is genuinely trying to achieve a Brexit that the majority can live with. She may well yet fail but if BJ were to become the leader it would be disastrous for the party and calamitous for the country. I believe Corbyn would be worse but Corbyn would almost certainly win against Johnson despite HYUFD's heroic polling interpretations.
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 186
    I can't quite work out what Boris' MO is - I understand he's channeling Winston Churchill (his book makes it pretty clear) so following the WC narrative, he's having his time in the wilderness, ahead of a country crisis post-Brexit, and then he can step in and be the leader the country needs in its 'darkest hour'.

    Except he's on the wrong side of history. In 1940 we had an empire, and we were threatened by upstart countries trying to supplant us as dominant regional or even global powers. Now - we have no empire, there is no threat, the Brexit 'crisis' is entirely of our own making, so is this the behaviour of a delusional Churchill-fetishist, or are there enough people in the country ready to rally around a "blood, toil, tears and sweat" Boris if and when we fall off a cliff economics-wise? I can't see it myself, but then I couldn't see leave winning two years ago...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,611
    I completely agree (obviously, since it was one of the points in my previous thread header, though few seem to have got that far in the article). The question is: when the contest comes, how many MPs are nevertheless behind Boris Johnson? If it's more than 75, he'll probably be in the last two.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,802

    I can't quite work out what Boris' MO is - I understand he's channeling Winston Churchill (his book makes it pretty clear)

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,474
    felix said:

    I agree with the header. T. May has made many blunders in both tactics and strategy but I do believe she is genuinely trying to achieve a Brexit that the majority can live with. She may well yet fail but if BJ were to become the leader it would be disastrous for the party and calamitous for the country. I believe Corbyn would be worse but Corbyn would almost certainly win against Johnson despite HYUFD's heroic polling interpretations.

    Maybe her cunning plan from the beginning was to wait until Boris discredited himself by confusing being FS with FFS, then forcing him out and staying in power by using him to concentrate the minds of her colleagues? It is clear from yesterday's media interviews that dislike of Boris runs wide and deep, amongst the people who will decide his future, HY's polls notwithstanding
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,802
    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    I agree with the header. T. May has made many blunders in both tactics and strategy but I do believe she is genuinely trying to achieve a Brexit that the majority can live with. She may well yet fail but if BJ were to become the leader it would be disastrous for the party and calamitous for the country. I believe Corbyn would be worse but Corbyn would almost certainly win against Johnson despite HYUFD's heroic polling interpretations.

    Maybe her cunning plan from the beginning was to wait until Boris discredited himself by confusing being FS with FFS, then forcing him out and staying in power by using him to concentrate the minds of her colleagues? It is clear from yesterday's media interviews that dislike of Boris runs wide and deep, amongst the people who will decide his future, HY's polls notwithstanding
    She is of course not that cunning. I think she has a strong sense of duty and a resilience which borders on the heroic. She is also a poor communicator and has a near impossible Brexit task. Nevertheless she is head and shoulders above both JC and BJ and at the moment our best hope for a Brexit which satisfies the bulk of the 52 and the 48 - I speak as one of the latter who has no abiding passion for the EU.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 11,447
    Scott_P said:

    I can't quite work out what Boris' MO is - I understand he's channeling Winston Churchill (his book makes it pretty clear)

    That's almost as good as Evans' beatdown of Irving, although not as long, as detailed or (for balance) starting with the disclaimer 'I am a member of the Labour Party. I do not suppose that means I am left wing these days.'
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,741
    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    I agree with the header. T. May has made many blunders in both tactics and strategy but I do believe she is genuinely trying to achieve a Brexit that the majority can live with. She may well yet fail but if BJ were to become the leader it would be disastrous for the party and calamitous for the country. I believe Corbyn would be worse but Corbyn would almost certainly win against Johnson despite HYUFD's heroic polling interpretations.

    Maybe her cunning plan from the beginning was to wait until Boris discredited himself by confusing being FS with FFS, then forcing him out and staying in power by using him to concentrate the minds of her colleagues? It is clear from yesterday's media interviews that dislike of Boris runs wide and deep, amongst the people who will decide his future, HY's polls notwithstanding
    She is of course not that cunning. I think she has a strong sense of duty and a resilience which borders on the heroic. She is also a poor communicator and has a near impossible Brexit task. Nevertheless she is head and shoulders above both JC and BJ and at the moment our best hope for a Brexit which satisfies the bulk of the 52 and the 48 - I speak as one of the latter who has no abiding passion for the EU.
    She rose to become Prime Minister in a party defined by splits on Europe without anyone being able to be sure what her real views on the subject are. Any analysis based on the assumption that May lacks cunning is flawed.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,911

    I completely agree (obviously, since it was one of the points in my previous thread header, though few seem to have got that far in the article). The question is: when the contest comes, how many MPs are nevertheless behind Boris Johnson? If it's more than 75, he'll probably be in the last two.

    Boris has not made friends with many MPS, but he has made lots of friends with the grassroots, as the most prominent, articulate and charismatic Leaver.

    I thought his comments on the niqab/burqa (garments I personally detest, and would probably ban) were vulgar and juvenile. However his refusal to be cowed, and his refusal to apologise, will make him more popular still. Indeed I wonder if he made these crass remarks specifically for this purpose: so he would be asked to apologise, and he could then refuse. A big F U to the chattering classes.

    People - especially Tories of a certain age - are yearning for someone to stand up to the SJWs and liberal hand-wringers. Farage used to fulfil this role. Those Tory activists will now put pressure on the MPs to back Bozza

    In that light I agree he could possibly find 75MPs or more to back him, and if he does, victory is in sight.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,802
    Technical question - Am I the only one having trouble accessin comments when refreshing - been very hit and miss since yesterday?
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 739
    I founded this site today when I was wondering if UKIP had a more coherent policy on anti-sentiment than Labour

    https://antisemitism.uk/politics/

    I thought the Tories getting 50% good 50% bad was not very good until I saw the other parties. Perhaps someone should have a word with Alan Duncan and Andrew Bridgen.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,802
    SeanT said:

    Boris has not made friends with many MPS, but he has made lots of friends with the grassroots, as the most prominent, articulate and charismatic Leaver.

    I thought his comments on the niqab/burqa (garments I personally detest, and would probably ban) were vulgar and juvenile. However his refusal to be cowed, and his refusal to apologise, will make him more popular still. Indeed I wonder if he made these crass remarks specifically for this purpose: so he would be asked to apologise, and he could then refuse. A big F U to the chattering classes.

    Pound shop Trump
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,885
    Scott_P said:
    Round and round we go. Jezza can't agree to this, as he is in breach of the examples he doesn't want e.g. the infamous Press TV interview.

    No idea how this will end.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,802

    Scott_P said:
    Round and round we go. Jezza can't agree to this, as he is in breach of the examples he doesn't want e.g. the infamous Press TV interview.

    No idea how this will end.
    It is very irritating that BJ has thrown him a lifeline.
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 186
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    I can't quite work out what Boris' MO is - I understand he's channeling Winston Churchill (his book makes it pretty clear)

    That's almost as good as Evans' beatdown of Irving, although not as long, as detailed or (for balance) starting with the disclaimer 'I am a member of the Labour Party. I do not suppose that means I am left wing these days.'
    As someone who once shifted a few copies of this book to my customers, this is a brilliant take-down and review. I shall share it accordingly...thank you.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,802

    Round and round we go. Jezza can't agree to this, as he is in breach of the examples he doesn't want e.g. the infamous Press TV interview.

    No idea how this will end.

    Except...

    Agree the definition. Claim any "breach" can't be judged retrospectively. He won't resign. Can't be sacked.

    "Nothing has changed!"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,885
    edited August 9
    SeanT said:

    I completely agree (obviously, since it was one of the points in my previous thread header, though few seem to have got that far in the article). The question is: when the contest comes, how many MPs are nevertheless behind Boris Johnson? If it's more than 75, he'll probably be in the last two.

    Boris has not made friends with many MPS, but he has made lots of friends with the grassroots, as the most prominent, articulate and charismatic Leaver.

    I thought his comments on the niqab/burqa (garments I personally detest, and would probably ban) were vulgar and juvenile. However his refusal to be cowed, and his refusal to apologise, will make him more popular still. Indeed I wonder if he made these crass remarks specifically for this purpose: so he would be asked to apologise, and he could then refuse. A big F U to the chattering classes.

    People - especially Tories of a certain age - are yearning for someone to stand up to the SJWs and liberal hand-wringers. Farage used to fulfil this role. Those Tory activists will now put pressure on the MPs to back Bozza

    In that light I agree he could possibly find 75MPs or more to back him, and if he does, victory is in sight.
    Iain martin, who used to effectively be his boss, as comment editor, says it is far more likely that Boris threw this article together at the last minute in a panic over a deadline, without thinking too much.

    Who knows. Personally, I'm not convinced by that view.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,669

    It's not the ridiculous puce shade of that pic that bothers me, it's just the idea that Boris would blush about anything, ever.

    That picture is photoshopped.

    The shade of puce TSE turns when Boris becomes party leader will not be.
  • mattmatt Posts: 1,743
    edited August 9
    Centre parties are good only if they're left centre? That's as tediously partisan as anything produced by a Corbyn or Mogg enthuasist.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,802
    Scott_P said:

    Round and round we go. Jezza can't agree to this, as he is in breach of the examples he doesn't want e.g. the infamous Press TV interview.

    No idea how this will end.

    Except...

    Agree the definition. Claim any "breach" can't be judged retrospectively. He won't resign. Can't be sacked.

    "Nothing has changed!"
    Yeah - but that simply would not work - virtually every hack will have a score of 'breaches' waiting in the wings to unleash - and Seamus knows it.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,195
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    Boris has not made friends with many MPS, but he has made lots of friends with the grassroots, as the most prominent, articulate and charismatic Leaver.

    I thought his comments on the niqab/burqa (garments I personally detest, and would probably ban) were vulgar and juvenile. However his refusal to be cowed, and his refusal to apologise, will make him more popular still. Indeed I wonder if he made these crass remarks specifically for this purpose: so he would be asked to apologise, and he could then refuse. A big F U to the chattering classes.

    Pound shop Trump
    Trump won.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,802
    felix said:

    Yeah - but that simply would not work - virtually every hack will have a score of 'breaches' waiting in the wings to unleash - and Seamus knows it.

    any "breach" can't be judged retrospectively. He won't resign. Can't be sacked.

    "Nothing has changed!"
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,802
    matt said:

    Centre parties are good only if they're left centre?
    Andrew Adonis is something else - the epitome of the entitled chattering class snob stuck in an ivory tower way way above us all.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,802

    Trump won.

    Which is why BoZo is following the playbook
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,911
    Scott_P said:

    I can't quite work out what Boris' MO is - I understand he's channeling Winston Churchill (his book makes it pretty clear)

    lol

    That article confidently debunks Boris's assertion that Churchill coined the phrase "iron curtain"

    "Churchill did not, as Boris claims, invent the term “Iron Curtain” to describe the barrier between Soviet-dominated Europe and western Europe. It was first used by the Nazis – above all, by their propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels. "

    Which is pretty emphatic. Stupid Boris. It was Goebbela, an actual Nazi, who used it first! HAHAHAHA

    Except, wait a minute, hold on, the phrase was in fact coined long before Goebbels, by E Snowden

    "In fact, there’s evidence of the phrase being used to mean exactly that a good 26 years earlier when an E. Snowden (seriously) published a travelogue about her adventures in Bolshevik Russia."

    http://time.com/3733955/winston-churchill-did-not-coin-the-phrase-iron-curtain/

    So that's that.

    Except, uh, wait, hold on, apparently it was first used before THAT, by some Russian:

    "Its first appearance in print, however, was in Apocalypse of Our Time, published in 1918 by Russian philosopher Vasily Rozanov"

    https://winstonchurchill.org/resources/quotes/did-churchill-coin-the-term-iron-curtain/

    So this supposedly brilliant debunking of Boris's "error strewn" biography makes a howling error of its own, in the very first paragraph. I shall not bother to read any more.
  • JohnRussellJohnRussell Posts: 18
    SeanT said:

    I completely agree (obviously, since it was one of the points in my previous thread header, though few seem to have got that far in the article). The question is: when the contest comes, how many MPs are nevertheless behind Boris Johnson? If it's more than 75, he'll probably be in the last two.

    Boris has not made friends with many MPS, but he has made lots of friends with the grassroots, as the most prominent, articulate and charismatic Leaver.

    I thought his comments on the niqab/burqa (garments I personally detest, and would probably ban) were vulgar and juvenile. However his refusal to be cowed, and his refusal to apologise, will make him more popular still. Indeed I wonder if he made these crass remarks specifically for this purpose: so he would be asked to apologise, and he could then refuse. A big F U to the chattering classes.

    People - especially Tories of a certain age - are yearning for someone to stand up to the SJWs and liberal hand-wringers. Farage used to fulfil this role. Those Tory activists will now put pressure on the MPs to back Bozza

    In that light I agree he could possibly find 75MPs or more to back him, and if he does, victory is in sight.
    Boris Johnson's remarks have forced the person whose job he wants, and his rivals for it, to pubicly defend soft Brexit and the Islamification of Britain. I doubt they want to be in that position, so, despite everyone calling him stupid, perhaps he has been quite clever.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,802
    Scott_P said:

    felix said:

    Yeah - but that simply would not work - virtually every hack will have a score of 'breaches' waiting in the wings to unleash - and Seamus knows it.

    any "breach" can't be judged retrospectively. He won't resign. Can't be sacked.

    "Nothing has changed!"
    Yeah - but that simply would not work - virtually every hack will have a score of 'breaches' waiting in the wings to unleash - and Seamus knows it.

    This conversation could last some time but fortunately I have a lunch in the sun date beckoning.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,582

    Scott_P said:
    Round and round we go. Jezza can't agree to this, as he is in breach of the examples he doesn't want e.g. the infamous Press TV interview.

    No idea how this will end.
    There is an obvious solution for Labour. Agree to this from now on and agree that anyone from now on saying such stuff will be out. So if you said something appalling 8 years ago no action will be taken unless you repeat it now. Not ideal but it would draw the line under the row and it would mean that Labour would have an answer to every time Guido or somebody comes up with an example from years ago.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,580
    edited August 9
    Boris is a bundle of contradictions. Consumed by ambition, but when the ball did come loose from the back of the scrum he bottled it. He bottled it again after GE2017, and over Heathrow (which would have been a good thing to resign over, career-wise, as it could have been portrayed as principled). He dithered over the Chequers deal. He was an excellent, liberal, business-friendly, pro-immigration Mayor, who got quite a lot of support from people who are not right-leaning, but now seems set on reinventing himself as a mini-Farage. He's bright, but not bright enough to keep his penchant for colourful phrase-making in check.

    A while back, I might have conceded that there was a realistic case for arguing that, for all his faults and lack of attention to detail, he might nonetheless be a good leader, delegating the detailed stuff to others, although it required a bit of a leap of faith. But I don't think that case is arguable any more. He had a golden opportunity at the Foreign Office to show that he could use his talents and reign in his undisciplined phrase-making; it is, after all, a role potentially well-suited to a 'big-picture' style. He didn't take that opportunity to convince us - and more importantly, fellow Tory MPs - that he could be a serious politician, and he now seems to have given up trying altogether.

    It's almost as though he has some kind of unconscious fear of his own ambition, which always kicks in and sabotages his own efforts.

    Whatever the reason, I don't think it's likely that he'll be Tory leader.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,669
    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Round and round we go. Jezza can't agree to this, as he is in breach of the examples he doesn't want e.g. the infamous Press TV interview.

    No idea how this will end.
    It is very irritating that BJ has thrown him a lifeline.
    But not for the Tory Party...... They need Corbyn in place come the next election. I'm sure some of the more strategically minded in CCHQ are not exactly distressed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,885
    Scott_P said:

    Round and round we go. Jezza can't agree to this, as he is in breach of the examples he doesn't want e.g. the infamous Press TV interview.

    No idea how this will end.

    Except...

    Agree the definition. Claim any "breach" can't be judged retrospectively. He won't resign. Can't be sacked.

    "Nothing has changed!"
    Yes, that might work, I agree. Not sure why Jezza's inner circle can't think that one out.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 739
    On Topic whilst I think Boris would be a poor leader I think it may not be as simple as the thread header is suggesting. There must be a significant number of letters already with the 1922 committee. Right now Tory MPs all over the country will be getting a backlash from their own members about the inept Chequers plan and likely concessions that will be further made. They will also be looking back to last year and the ineptnelection campaign, and wondering if the risk is staying with May. Also it is already clear that ambitious Tories such as Williamson and Lewis think they have a chance, and are on manoeuvres, and we here reports from constituency associations that they are planning for an Autumn leadership contest.

    Whilst there is a risk that Boris becomes prime minister, there is also the possibility that he will be outmanoeuvred like last time, and we already have an inept prime minister, so if risking another one is the only way to get rid then it could happen.

    At the moment I rate it a 40% chance for autumn 40% for next spring, and 15% before next election. There has to be a 5% chance May will last to next election a la Brown.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,669
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Round and round we go. Jezza can't agree to this, as he is in breach of the examples he doesn't want e.g. the infamous Press TV interview.

    No idea how this will end.
    There is an obvious solution for Labour. Agree to this from now on and agree that anyone from now on saying such stuff will be out. So if you said something appalling 8 years ago no action will be taken unless you repeat it now. Not ideal but it would draw the line under the row and it would mean that Labour would have an answer to every time Guido or somebody comes up with an example from years ago.
    That requires Corbyn to STFU about Israel.

    That's a big ask.....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,991
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    I can't quite work out what Boris' MO is - I understand he's channeling Winston Churchill (his book makes it pretty clear)

    lol

    That article confidently debunks Boris's assertion that Churchill coined the phrase "iron curtain"

    "Churchill did not, as Boris claims, invent the term “Iron Curtain” to describe the barrier between Soviet-dominated Europe and western Europe. It was first used by the Nazis – above all, by their propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels. "

    Which is pretty emphatic. Stupid Boris. It was Goebbela, an actual Nazi, who used it first! HAHAHAHA

    Except, wait a minute, hold on, the phrase was in fact coined long before Goebbels, by E Snowden

    "In fact, there’s evidence of the phrase being used to mean exactly that a good 26 years earlier when an E. Snowden (seriously) published a travelogue about her adventures in Bolshevik Russia."

    http://time.com/3733955/winston-churchill-did-not-coin-the-phrase-iron-curtain/

    So that's that.

    Except, uh, wait, hold on, apparently it was first used before THAT, by some Russian:

    "Its first appearance in print, however, was in Apocalypse of Our Time, published in 1918 by Russian philosopher Vasily Rozanov"

    https://winstonchurchill.org/resources/quotes/did-churchill-coin-the-term-iron-curtain/

    So this supposedly brilliant debunking of Boris's "error strewn" biography makes a howling error of its own, in the very first paragraph. I shall not bother to read any more.
    Are we seeing the birth of your next 'strong man of the right' crush?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672
    Regarding the weather, raintoday.co.uk – live radar. I find the ludicrous speculation over rain utterly ridiculous, mostly. The radar can be read by any amateur with even the most basic grasp of geography.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,089
    Morning all :)

    I frankly don't see how the niqab represents the "Islamification" of Britain whatever that means. I'm more concerned with men wearing socks over sandals.

    On topic, nothing will change until and unless Boris looks the only way Conservative backbench MPs with small majorities will survive. Those who oppose him now will support him if he is the only way to keep them in a job.

    For now, Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are between them working well to guarantee the job status of the average Conservative MP with a majority below 5,000 so there's no need to change.

    I think a lot will depend on the local elections next year - a bad night for the Conservatives and perceptions may change.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. Felix, I couldn't log in on the main site, but it worked via the Vanilla forum itself.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,582

    SeanT said:

    I completely agree (obviously, since it was one of the points in my previous thread header, though few seem to have got that far in the article). The question is: when the contest comes, how many MPs are nevertheless behind Boris Johnson? If it's more than 75, he'll probably be in the last two.

    Boris has not made friends with many MPS, but he has made lots of friends with the grassroots, as the most prominent, articulate and charismatic Leaver.

    I thought his comments on the niqab/burqa (garments I personally detest, and would probably ban) were vulgar and juvenile. However his refusal to be cowed, and his refusal to apologise, will make him more popular still. Indeed I wonder if he made these crass remarks specifically for this purpose: so he would be asked to apologise, and he could then refuse. A big F U to the chattering classes.

    People - especially Tories of a certain age - are yearning for someone to stand up to the SJWs and liberal hand-wringers. Farage used to fulfil this role. Those Tory activists will now put pressure on the MPs to back Bozza

    In that light I agree he could possibly find 75MPs or more to back him, and if he does, victory is in sight.
    Boris Johnson's remarks have forced the person whose job he wants, and his rivals for it, to pubicly defend soft Brexit and the Islamification of Britain. I doubt they want to be in that position, so, despite everyone calling him stupid, perhaps he has been quite clever.
    Rubbish. Quite a few of the people criticising Boris are ones who on balance would prefer the burqa to be banned. Rather, they are furious because in his juvenile, crass and ignorant way he has made it less - rather than more - likely that we will have the intelligent debate we need to have about the rights of religious minorities in a secular society, where the boundary should be when religious or cultural dictates clash with a society's norms, how to have successful integration, what you can or should do if people refuse to integrate etc etc.

    We badly need this debate. Not pointing and laughing at individual women and their dress. By doing the latter he's poisoned the well for the former. Rather than a Churchill for our age, he's more like an Enoch Powell. And, no, I don't mean that as a compliment.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 6,032

    Scott_P said:
    Round and round we go. Jezza can't agree to this, as he is in breach of the examples he doesn't want e.g. the infamous Press TV interview.

    No idea how this will end.
    Why wont Corbyn "accept IHRA in full"?
    Not doing so is costing him a lot and distracting from the Tories woes.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,582

    Scott_P said:
    Round and round we go. Jezza can't agree to this, as he is in breach of the examples he doesn't want e.g. the infamous Press TV interview.

    No idea how this will end.
    Why wont Corbyn "accept IHRA in full"?
    Not doing so is costing him a lot and distracting from the Tories woes.
    Because it will expose quite a lot of his supporters and, probably, more critically, Seamus Milne and even McDonnell and himself.

    But I think the real reason is that he thinks he's right and sees no reason to change his views, certainly not to accommodate people he doesn't much care for and who won't vote for him anyway.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,911

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    I can't quite work out what Boris' MO is - I understand he's channeling Winston Churchill (his book makes it pretty clear)

    lol

    That article confidently debunks Boris's assertion that Churchill coined the phrase "iron curtain"

    "Churchill did not, as Boris claims, invent the term “Iron Curtain” to describe the barrier between Soviet-dominated Europe and western Europe. It was first used by the Nazis – above all, by their propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels. "



    https://winstonchurchill.org/resources/quotes/did-churchill-coin-the-term-iron-curtain/

    So this supposedly brilliant debunking of Boris's "error strewn" biography makes a howling error of its own, in the very first paragraph. I shall not bother to read any more.
    Are we seeing the birth of your next 'strong man of the right' crush?

    No. I think Boris might just be the least worst option out of many dreadful options. He is certainly no Churchill (let alone a d'Annunzio!). I can't see anyone else on the right, with the possible exception of Javid, who has started OK as Home Sec.

    The left, under Corbyn, is simply a lost cause.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,582

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Round and round we go. Jezza can't agree to this, as he is in breach of the examples he doesn't want e.g. the infamous Press TV interview.

    No idea how this will end.
    There is an obvious solution for Labour. Agree to this from now on and agree that anyone from now on saying such stuff will be out. So if you said something appalling 8 years ago no action will be taken unless you repeat it now. Not ideal but it would draw the line under the row and it would mean that Labour would have an answer to every time Guido or somebody comes up with an example from years ago.
    That requires Corbyn to STFU about Israel.

    That's a big ask.....
    It doesn't. He can continue to criticise Israel and, let's face it, some of its actions do need criticising, as some of us (including myself) have done. He must just be judicious in his use of language i.e. the Israeli siege of Gaza is causing suffering / contrary to international law/ blah blah without the unnecessary (and wrong) comparison to Stalingrad, for instance.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,642
    Bollocks to Brexit and Burkas. This is the most interesting thing you will read today.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1322240/
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,366
    edited August 9
    I am no great fan of Boris, but when we have a Conservative Prime Minister who thinks introducing racial pay audits are a good idea, a Conservative Home Secretary who has rolled over to the immigration lobby in no time at all, and a Conservative Party chairman who wants gender quotas for the candidates’ list, it’s no surprise that people are starting to think the unthinkable.

    By and large, we did not join the Conservative Party to deliver the policies of Blair or Miliband.
  • JohnRussellJohnRussell Posts: 18
    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    I completely agree (obviously, since it was one of the points in my previous thread header, though few seem to have got that far in the article). The question is: when the contest comes, how many MPs are nevertheless behind Boris Johnson? If it's more than 75, he'll probably be in the last two.

    Boris has not made friends with many MPS, but he has made lots of friends with the grassroots, as the most prominent, articulate and charismatic Leaver.

    I thought his comments on the niqab/burqa (garments I personally detest, and would probably ban) were vulgar and juvenile. However his refusal to be cowed, and his refusal to apologise, will make him more popular still. Indeed I wonder if he made these crass remarks specifically for this purpose: so he would be asked to apologise, and he could then refuse. A big F U to the chattering classes.

    People - especially Tories of a certain age - are yearning for someone to stand up to the SJWs and liberal hand-wringers. Farage used to fulfil this role. Those Tory activists will now put pressure on the MPs to back Bozza

    In that light I agree he could possibly find 75MPs or more to back him, and if he does, victory is in sight.
    Boris Johnson's remarks have forced the person whose job he wants, and his rivals for it, to pubicly defend soft Brexit and the Islamification of Britain. I doubt they want to be in that position, so, despite everyone calling him stupid, perhaps he has been quite clever.
    Rubbish. Quite a few of the people criticising Boris are ones who on balance would prefer the burqa to be banned. Rather, they are furious because in his juvenile, crass and ignorant way he has made it less - rather than more - likely that we will have the intelligent debate we need to have about the rights of religious minorities in a secular society, where the boundary should be when religious or cultural dictates clash with a society's norms, how to have successful integration, what you can or should do if people refuse to integrate etc etc.

    We badly need this debate. Not pointing and laughing at individual women and their dress. By doing the latter he's poisoned the well for the former. Rather than a Churchill for our age, he's more like an Enoch Powell. And, no, I don't mean that as a compliment.
    Angry!

    Do you deny he has drawn a line in the sand, and forced people to choose on which side to stand? I saw Theresa May defending a woman's right to wear the Burqa, which is, in all likelihood, a vote loser for her. Question whether he were right or wrong to do so the way he did, but his aim seems to be obvious, and it has worked.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 739
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    I can't quite work out what Boris' MO is - I understand he's channeling Winston Churchill (his book makes it pretty clear)

    lol

    That article confidently debunks Boris's assertion that Churchill coined the phrase "iron curtain"

    "Churchill did not, as Boris claims, invent the term “Iron Curtain” to describe the barrier between Soviet-dominated Europe and western Europe. It was first used by the Nazis – above all, by their propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels. "



    https://winstonchurchill.org/resources/quotes/did-churchill-coin-the-term-iron-curtain/

    So this supposedly brilliant debunking of Boris's "error strewn" biography makes a howling error of its own, in the very first paragraph. I shall not bother to read any more.
    Are we seeing the birth of your next 'strong man of the right' crush?

    No. I think Boris might just be the least worst option out of many dreadful options. He is certainly no Churchill (let alone a d'Annunzio!). I can't see anyone else on the right, with the possible exception of Javid, who has started OK as Home Sec.

    The left, under Corbyn, is simply a lost cause.
    I think Javid would be a much better option and would be a better for renewing the direction of the party - he has a great back story. The Tories did this out of government with Cameron, could they move for Javid in government?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,824
    edited August 9
    Anazina said:

    Regarding the weather, raintoday.co.uk – live radar. I find the ludicrous speculation over rain utterly ridiculous, mostly. The radar can be read by any amateur with even the most basic grasp of geography.

    So we need a cricket enthusiast with a degree in geography and some time on her hands. :)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,582
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    I frankly don't see how the niqab represents the "Islamification" of Britain whatever that means. I'm more concerned with men wearing socks over sandals.

    On topic, nothing will change until and unless Boris looks the only way Conservative backbench MPs with small majorities will survive. Those who oppose him now will support him if he is the only way to keep them in a job.

    For now, Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are between them working well to guarantee the job status of the average Conservative MP with a majority below 5,000 so there's no need to change.

    I think a lot will depend on the local elections next year - a bad night for the Conservatives and perceptions may change.

    Boris's majority in his own constituency fell quite significantly last year. This idea that he has a magic wand to help other MPs with small majorities is a bit odd.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,451
    Anorak said:

    Bollocks to Brexit and Burkas. This is the most interesting thing you will read today.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1322240/

    With all of the problems facing the world, climate change, a possible energy crunch, an upcoming resources crunch among others, someone decided this study was worthy of funding. The mind boggles.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,824
    MaxPB said:

    Anorak said:

    Bollocks to Brexit and Burkas. This is the most interesting thing you will read today.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1322240/

    With all of the problems facing the world, climate change, a possible energy crunch, an upcoming resources crunch among others, someone decided this study was worthy of funding. The mind boggles.
    The Christmas issue of the British Medical Journal is known for this sort of jokey article.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,911

    SeanT said:

    I completely agree (obviously, since it was one of the points in my previous thread header, though few seem to have got that far in the article). The question is: when the contest comes, how many MPs are nevertheless behind Boris Johnson? If it's more than 75, he'll probably be in the last two.

    Boris has not made friends with many MPS, but he has made lots of friends with the grassroots, as the most prominent, articulate and charismatic Leaver.

    I thought his comments on the niqab/burqa (garments I personally detest, and would probably ban) were vulgar and juvenile. However his refusal to be cowed, and his refusal to apologise, will make him more popular still. Indeed I wonder if he made these crass remarks specifically for this purpose: so he would be asked to apologise, and he could then refuse. A big F U to the chattering classes.

    People - especially Tories of a certain age - are yearning for someone to stand up to the SJWs and liberal hand-wringers. Farage used to fulfil this role. Those Tory activists will now put pressure on the MPs to back Bozza

    In that light I agree he could possibly find 75MPs or more to back him, and if he does, victory is in sight.
    Boris Johnson's remarks have forced the person whose job he wants, and his rivals for it, to pubicly defend soft Brexit and the Islamification of Britain. I doubt they want to be in that position, so, despite everyone calling him stupid, perhaps he has been quite clever.
    Yes, I think that's precisely what he wanted, and why he (a bright man) chose to be so provocative. It got him noticed, and it got him noticed on a question where the vast majority of the country agrees with him, because most Brits hate or abjure the niqab (they won't notice the small detail at the end of his piece: that he is personally against a ban)

    His opponents now look pro-niqab and have soiled themselves with absurd statements like "wearing the burqa is the same as wearing a crucifix". Really, Ruth Davidson, do you really think that?

    Ruth has done herself some damage. As have others. Boris could come out of this quite well.

    I wonder if he is being advised on this by Bannon.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,582

    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    Boris has not made friends with many MPS, but he has made lots of friends with the grassroots, as the most prominent, articulate and charismatic Leaver.

    I thought his comments on the niqab/burqa (garments I personally detest, and would probably ban) were vulgar and juvenile. However his refusal to be cowed, and his refusal to apologise, will make him more popular still. Indeed I wonder if he made these crass remarks specifically for this purpose: so he would be asked to apologise, and he could then refuse. A big F U to the chattering classes.

    People - especially Tories of a certain age - are yearning for someone to stand up to the SJWs and liberal hand-wringers. Farage used to fulfil this role. Those Tory activists will now put pressure on the MPs to back Bozza

    In that light I agree he could possibly find 75MPs or more to back him, and if he does, victory is in sight.
    Boris Johnson's remarks have forced the person whose job he wants, and his rivals for it, to pubicly defend soft Brexit and the Islamification of Britain. I doubt they want to be in that position, so, despite everyone calling him stupid, perhaps he has been quite clever.
    Rubbish. Quite a few of the people criticising Boris are ones who on balance would prefer the burqa to be banned. Rather, they are furious because in his juvenile, crass and ignorant way he has made it less - rather than more - likely that we will have the intelligent debate we need to have about the rights of religious minorities in a secular society, where the boundary should be when religious or cultural dictates clash with a society's norms, how to have successful integration, what you can or should do if people refuse to integrate etc etc.

    We badly need this debate. Not pointing and laughing at individual women and their dress. By doing the latter he's poisoned the well for the former. Rather than a Churchill for our age, he's more like an Enoch Powell. And, no, I don't mean that as a compliment.
    Angry!

    Do you deny he has drawn a line in the sand, and forced people to choose on which side to stand? I saw Theresa May defending a woman's right to wear the Burqa, which is, in all likelihood, a vote loser for her. Question whether he were right or wrong to do so the way he did, but his aim seems to be obvious, and it has worked.
    No I don't think he has drawn any sort of a line in the sand. He is in favour of allowing women to wear the burqa. That's what his article said. So he's on the same side as Mrs May on this and if it is a vote loser for her it's a vote loser for him.

  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,911
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    Boris has not

    In that light I agree he could possibly find 75MPs or more to back him, and if he does, victory is in sight.
    Boris Johnson's remarks have forced the person whose job he wants, and his rivals for it, to pubicly defend soft Brexit and the Islamification of Britain. I doubt they want to be in that position, so, despite everyone calling him stupid, perhaps he has been quite clever.
    Rubbish. Q

    We badly need this debate. Not pointing and laughing at individual women and their dress. By doing the latter he's poisoned the well for the former. Rather than a Churchill for our age, he's more like an Enoch Powell. And, no, I don't mean that as a compliment.
    Angry!

    Do you deny he has drawn a line in the sand, and forced people to choose on which side to stand? I saw Theresa May defending a woman's right to wear the Burqa, which is, in all likelihood, a vote loser for her. Question whether he were right or wrong to do so the way he did, but his aim seems to be obvious, and it has worked.
    No I don't think he has drawn any sort of a line in the sand. He is in favour of allowing women to wear the burqa. That's what his article said. So he's on the same side as Mrs May on this and if it is a vote loser for her it's a vote loser for him.

    Duh. Strangely dim from you Cyclefree. No one has mentioned his opposition to a ban, it's gone entirely unseen. All the average person will get from the 2 minutes of Boris news on TV is that he dislikes the niqab and is happy to mock it, and refuses to grovel and apologise afterwards for his opinion.

    This IS bad for May and good for Boz.

    Furthermore, see below. This is also good for Boris. People are so bored of being bullied by thought police. There are murders every day in London, 97% of moped robberies (now epidemic) go unpunished, yet the Met has actually tweeted this. Unbelieveable -




  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 1,001
    SeanT said:
    From a man who was never able to read the mood of the parliamentary party even when he was in it.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672

    Anazina said:

    Regarding the weather, raintoday.co.uk – live radar. I find the ludicrous speculation over rain utterly ridiculous, mostly. The radar can be read by any amateur with even the most basic grasp of geography.

    So we need a cricket enthusiast with a degree in geography and some time on her hands. :)
    Looking at the impressive size, heading and low velocity of the system, I'd guess we won't have much play until mid to late afternoon. The back end of the feature is currently sat over Nantes, in the Loire Valley. It's going to take three to four hours to clear central London.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. Stodge, surely you means socks with sandals? Over sandals would be very odd.

    Roman soldiers posted here wore socks with their sandals. It's a tradition going back millennia.

    Mr. (Miss?) Blue, indeed, the wibbling of that nature is most displeasing.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363
    SeanT said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    Boris has not

    In that light I agree he could possibly find 75MPs or more to back him, and if he does, victory is in sight.
    Boris Johnson's remarks have forced the person whose job he wants, and his rivals for it, to pubicly defend soft Brexit and the Islamification of Britain. I doubt they want to be in that position, so, despite everyone calling him stupid, perhaps he has been quite clever.
    Rubbish. Q

    We badly need this debate. Not pointing and laughing at individual women and their dress. By doing the latter he's poisoned the well for the former. Rather than a Churchill for our age, he's more like an Enoch Powell. And, no, I don't mean that as a compliment.
    Angry!

    Do you deny he has drawn a line in the sand, and forced people to choose on which side to stand? I saw Theresa May defending a woman's right to wear the Burqa, which is, in all likelihood, a vote loser for her. Question whether he were right or wrong to do so the way he did, but his aim seems to be obvious, and it has worked.
    No I don't think he has drawn any sort of a line in the sand. He is in favour of allowing women to wear the burqa. That's what his article said. So he's on the same side as Mrs May on this and if it is a vote loser for her it's a vote loser for him.

    Duh. Strangely dim from you Cyclefree. No one has mentioned his opposition to a ban, it's gone entirely unseen. All the average person will get from the 2 minutes of Boris news on TV is that he dislikes the niqab and is happy to mock it, and refuses to grovel and apologise afterwards for his opinion.

    This IS bad for May and good for Boz.

    Furthermore, see below. This is also good for Boris. People are so bored of being bullied by thought police. There are murders every day in London, 97% of moped robberies (now epidemic) go unpunished, yet the Met has actually tweeted this. Unbelieveable -




    That's a blinding glimpse of the obvious.

    Actually, I imagine that Boris would love nothing more than to be prosecuted for his comments.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,741
    SeanT said:

    I wonder if he is being advised on this by Bannon.

    Bannon is a crank who is only taken semi-seriously because he briefly rode on Trump's coattails after Trump had already smashed the Republican party. He has absolutely no credentials as a political Svengali.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,133
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I completely agree (obviously, since it was one of the points in my previous thread header, though few seem to have got that far in the article). The question is: when the contest comes, how many MPs are nevertheless behind Boris Johnson? If it's more than 75, he'll probably be in the last two.

    Boris has not made friends with many MPS, but he has made lots of friends with the grassroots, as the most prominent, articulate and charismatic Leaver.

    I thought his comments on the niqab/burqa (garments I personally detest, and would probably ban) were vulgar and juvenile. However his refusal to be cowed, and his refusal to apologise, will make him more popular still. Indeed I wonder if he made these crass remarks specifically for this purpose: so he would be asked to apologise, and he could then refuse. A big F U to the chattering classes.

    People - especially Tories of a certain age - are yearning for someone to stand up to the SJWs and liberal hand-wringers. Farage used to fulfil this role. Those Tory activists will now put pressure on the MPs to back Bozza

    In that light I agree he could possibly find 75MPs or more to back him, and if he does, victory is in sight.
    Boris Johnson's remarks have forced the person whose job he wants, and his rivals for it, to pubicly defend soft Brexit and the Islamification of Britain. I doubt they want to be in that position, so, despite everyone calling him stupid, perhaps he has been quite clever.
    Yes, I think that's precisely what he wanted, and why he (a bright man) chose to be so provocative. It got him noticed, and it got him noticed on a question where the vast majority of the country agrees with him, because most Brits hate or abjure the niqab (they won't notice the small detail at the end of his piece: that he is personally against a ban)

    His opponents now look pro-niqab and have soiled themselves with absurd statements like "wearing the burqa is the same as wearing a crucifix". Really, Ruth Davidson, do you really think that?

    Ruth has done herself some damage. As have others. Boris could come out of this quite well.

    I wonder if he is being advised on this by Bannon.
    I agree, though the downside is that he's posed off MPs, who are also gatekeepers to the leadership
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,089
    RoyalBlue said:

    I am no great fan of Boris, but when we have a Conservative Prime Minister who thinks introducing racial pay audits are a good idea, a Conservative Home Secretary who has rolled over to the immigration lobby in no time at all, and a Conservative Party chairman who wants gender quotas for the candidates’ list, it’s no surprise that people are starting to think the unthinkable.

    By and large, we did not join the Conservative Party to deliver the policies of Blair or Miliband.

    I'm actually surprised you're surprised. May is an interventionist Conservative, pure and simple. Her mentor isn't Thatcher but Heseltine - the State and the law will be used as often as possible to force change.

    The laissez-faire tax cutting small state Conservatives have been as expunged as the Blairites in Labour but none of the Tories seem to have noticed.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,885
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Round and round we go. Jezza can't agree to this, as he is in breach of the examples he doesn't want e.g. the infamous Press TV interview.

    No idea how this will end.
    Why wont Corbyn "accept IHRA in full"?
    Not doing so is costing him a lot and distracting from the Tories woes.
    Because it will expose quite a lot of his supporters and, probably, more critically, Seamus Milne and even McDonnell and himself.

    But I think the real reason is that he thinks he's right and sees no reason to change his views, certainly not to accommodate people he doesn't much care for and who won't vote for him anyway.
    One of the aspects of all this is that it has revealed (even more) how utterly unsuited to being PM Jezza is. He has made his mind up about something 30 years ago, and he is not going to change, whatever the circumstances.

    That's just great for a PM in a complex, rapidly moving world.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. T, I see Dick is living up to her name.

    Boris is an oaf but the idea an obnoxious utterance should be considered a criminal offence, and the highest law officer in the land deciding her minions ought to explore the possibility, is alarming.
  • JohnRussellJohnRussell Posts: 18
    edited August 9
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:
    Boris Johnson's remarks have forced the person whose job he wants, and his rivals for it, to pubicly defend soft Brexit and the Islamification of Britain. I doubt they want to be in that position, so, despite everyone calling him stupid, perhaps he has been quite clever.
    Rubbish. Quite a few of the people criticising Boris are ones who on balance would prefer the burqa to be banned. Rather, they are furious because in his juvenile, crass and ignorant way he has made it less - rather than more - likely that we will have the intelligent debate we need to have about the rights of religious minorities in a secular society, where the boundary should be when religious or cultural dictates clash with a society's norms, how to have successful integration, what you can or should do if people refuse to integrate etc etc.

    We badly need this debate. Not pointing and laughing at individual women and their dress. By doing the latter he's poisoned the well for the former. Rather than a Churchill for our age, he's more like an Enoch Powell. And, no, I don't mean that as a compliment.
    Angry!

    Do you deny he has drawn a line in the sand, and forced people to choose on which side to stand? I saw Theresa May defending a woman's right to wear the Burqa, which is, in all likelihood, a vote loser for her. Question whether he were right or wrong to do so the way he did, but his aim seems to be obvious, and it has worked.
    No I don't think he has drawn any sort of a line in the sand. He is in favour of allowing women to wear the burqa. That's what his article said. So he's on the same side as Mrs May on this and if it is a vote loser for her it's a vote loser for him.

    Johnson said women wearing Burqa's look stupid, May said he should apologise. He hasn't, and it appears that the front page of the Evening Standard has him being dragged before a disciplinary hearing because of it. I find it hard to accept that the result of his remarks isn't that he has positioned himself on one side of an argument, and his rivals on the other, and my guess is that outcome was his intention.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363
    edited August 9
    stodge said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I am no great fan of Boris, but when we have a Conservative Prime Minister who thinks introducing racial pay audits are a good idea, a Conservative Home Secretary who has rolled over to the immigration lobby in no time at all, and a Conservative Party chairman who wants gender quotas for the candidates’ list, it’s no surprise that people are starting to think the unthinkable.

    By and large, we did not join the Conservative Party to deliver the policies of Blair or Miliband.

    I'm actually surprised you're surprised. May is an interventionist Conservative, pure and simple. Her mentor isn't Thatcher but Heseltine - the State and the law will be used as often as possible to force change.

    The laissez-faire tax cutting small state Conservatives have been as expunged as the Blairites in Labour but none of the Tories seem to have noticed.

    May's view is that there is a bureaucratic solution to every social problem. In that respect, she's like Heath.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 11,447
    edited August 9

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    I can't quite work out what Boris' MO is - I understand he's channeling Winston Churchill (his book makes it pretty clear)

    lol

    That article confidently debunks Boris's assertion that Churchill coined the phrase "iron curtain"

    "Churchill did not, as Boris claims, invent the term “Iron Curtain” to describe the barrier between Soviet-dominated Europe and western Europe. It was first used by the Nazis – above all, by their propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels. "



    https://winstonchurchill.org/resources/quotes/did-churchill-coin-the-term-iron-curtain/

    So this supposedly brilliant debunking of Boris's "error strewn" biography makes a howling error of its own, in the very first paragraph. I shall not bother to read any more.
    Are we seeing the birth of your next 'strong man of the right' crush?

    No. I think Boris might just be the least worst option out of many dreadful options. He is certainly no Churchill (let alone a d'Annunzio!). I can't see anyone else on the right, with the possible exception of Javid, who has started OK as Home Sec.

    The left, under Corbyn, is simply a lost cause.
    I think Javid would be a much better option and would be a better for renewing the direction of the party - he has a great back story. The Tories did this out of government with Cameron, could they move for Javid in government?
    Although I personally think Javid would be the right person to succeed May, can I please stress it is for a number of reasons but not his 'back story'. While it would be useful in negating a number of Labour's dumber attack lines, the key question should be ability and ability to handle pressure. While Javid's record in his regard is hardly flawless it is much better than any plausible alternative.

    If 'a good backstory' were the sole criterion for leadership then none of Cameron, Harman, Miliband, Corbyn, or Blair could have become party leader. Love them or loathe them, that would seem excessive. On the other hand we would of course have lost Osborne and Boris too, so it wouldn't all have been bad news.
  • Why should we be having a debate about whether a woman is allowed to wear a burqa or not? Surely that's personal choice? I am annoyed with BJ because he decided to say the burqa clad women looked like letterboxes or terrorists. Not a nice thing to say. If he was playing to the silent majority in the Tory party (or elsewhere) that doesn't say much about them either.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,642
    edited August 9
    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Regarding the weather, raintoday.co.uk – live radar. I find the ludicrous speculation over rain utterly ridiculous, mostly. The radar can be read by any amateur with even the most basic grasp of geography.

    So we need a cricket enthusiast with a degree in geography and some time on her hands. :)
    Looking at the impressive size, heading and low velocity of the system, I'd guess we won't have much play until mid to late afternoon. The back end of the feature is currently sat over Nantes, in the Loire Valley. It's going to take three to four hours to clear central London.
    I usually look at the met office site for that, but they keep hiding it in different places, the gits. raintoday.co.uk link saved!

    And grey skies and drizzle must favour the hosts, surely.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. 1961, it's ironic that women have lost jobs (F1 grid girls, darts girls etc) they wanted to do because those not doing said jobs decided they were politically incorrect, whereas questioning the wearing of a burka is beyond the pale, apparently.

    Likewise, bikini-wearing models (who were perfectly healthy) have been banned from Tube ads. It seems judging what women wear, and even banning it from advertising or axing their jobs altogether, is deemed fine if you're a puritan, but if you're condemning or questioning burkas rather than bikinis suddenly it's horrendous to tell women what they should wear.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,355
    The Met Office? They were predicting fine weather until they looked out of the window this morning and noticed it was raining.

    They couldn't forecast the winner of a one-horse race.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363

    Mr. 1961, it's ironic that women have lost jobs (F1 grid girls, darts girls etc) they wanted to do because those not doing said jobs decided they were politically incorrect, whereas questioning the wearing of a burka is beyond the pale, apparently.

    Likewise, bikini-wearing models (who were perfectly healthy) have been banned from Tube ads. It seems judging what women wear, and even banning it from advertising or axing their jobs altogether, is deemed fine if you're a puritan, but if you're condemning or questioning burkas rather than bikinis suddenly it's horrendous to tell women what they should wear.

    It certainly seems odd to view the burka as liberating, and appearing in a bikini as demeaning.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,059

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Round and round we go. Jezza can't agree to this, as he is in breach of the examples he doesn't want e.g. the infamous Press TV interview.

    No idea how this will end.
    Why wont Corbyn "accept IHRA in full"?
    Not doing so is costing him a lot and distracting from the Tories woes.
    Because it will expose quite a lot of his supporters and, probably, more critically, Seamus Milne and even McDonnell and himself.

    But I think the real reason is that he thinks he's right and sees no reason to change his views, certainly not to accommodate people he doesn't much care for and who won't vote for him anyway.
    One of the aspects of all this is that it has revealed (even more) how utterly unsuited to being PM Jezza is. He has made his mind up about something 30 years ago, and he is not going to change, whatever the circumstances.

    That's just great for a PM in a complex, rapidly moving world.

    Principles
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672

    The Met Office? They were predicting fine weather until they looked out of the window this morning and noticed it was raining.

    They couldn't forecast the winner of a one-horse race.

    Met Office or MeteoGroup? The BBC have changed their supplier to the latter. It has not been a unmitigated success.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672
    Anorak said:

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Regarding the weather, raintoday.co.uk – live radar. I find the ludicrous speculation over rain utterly ridiculous, mostly. The radar can be read by any amateur with even the most basic grasp of geography.

    So we need a cricket enthusiast with a degree in geography and some time on her hands. :)
    Looking at the impressive size, heading and low velocity of the system, I'd guess we won't have much play until mid to late afternoon. The back end of the feature is currently sat over Nantes, in the Loire Valley. It's going to take three to four hours to clear central London.
    I usually look at the met office site for that, but they keep hiding it in different places, the gits. raintoday.co.uk link saved!

    And grey skies and drizzle must favour the hosts, surely.
    Indeed. Broad and Anderson will be delighted with the outlook.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. F, well, freedom is slavery, comrade.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,642
    Anazina said:

    Anorak said:

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Regarding the weather, raintoday.co.uk – live radar. I find the ludicrous speculation over rain utterly ridiculous, mostly. The radar can be read by any amateur with even the most basic grasp of geography.

    So we need a cricket enthusiast with a degree in geography and some time on her hands. :)
    Looking at the impressive size, heading and low velocity of the system, I'd guess we won't have much play until mid to late afternoon. The back end of the feature is currently sat over Nantes, in the Loire Valley. It's going to take three to four hours to clear central London.
    I usually look at the met office site for that, but they keep hiding it in different places, the gits. raintoday.co.uk link saved!

    And grey skies and drizzle must favour the hosts, surely.
    Indeed. Broad and Anderson will be delighted with the outlook.
    Looks like Woakes will get the nod too, according to a not-binding-at-all poll on cricinfo.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,451
    Boris has managed to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat on this. I think the public are broadly supportive of his comments and the huge over reaction from usual suspects as well as whatever idiotic Met investigation is going to help him win supporters. Boris said nothing unreasonable.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,824

    Mr. Stodge, surely you means socks with sandals? Over sandals would be very odd.

    Roman soldiers posted here wore socks with their sandals. It's a tradition going back millennia.

    Do Roman soldiers post here?

    Sorry, I'll get my coat.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Anyway, must be off for a bit. I shall return later.
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 186
    SeanT said:

    I completely agree (obviously, since it was one of the points in my previous thread header, though few seem to have got that far in the article). The question is: when the contest comes, how many MPs are nevertheless behind Boris Johnson? If it's more than 75, he'll probably be in the last two.

    Boris has not made friends with many MPS, but he has made lots of friends with the grassroots, as the most prominent, articulate and charismatic Leaver.

    I thought his comments on the niqab/burqa (garments I personally detest, and would probably ban) were vulgar and juvenile. However his refusal to be cowed, and his refusal to apologise, will make him more popular still. Indeed I wonder if he made these crass remarks specifically for this purpose: so he would be asked to apologise, and he could then refuse. A big F U to the chattering classes.

    People - especially Tories of a certain age - are yearning for someone to stand up to the SJWs and liberal hand-wringers. Farage used to fulfil this role. Those Tory activists will now put pressure on the MPs to back Bozza

    In that light I agree he could possibly find 75MPs or more to back him, and if he does, victory is in sight.
    Think you are spot on here Sean: not seeing Johnson as a new Churchill, but as a new Farage. Someone who 'tells it straight', and isn't afraid to stand up to the elites (despite bring the dictionary definition of elite). He wins either way: hard Brexit = "let's pull together". soft Brexit = "we've been betrayed". Simples.
  • Mr. 1961, it's ironic that women have lost jobs (F1 grid girls, darts girls etc) they wanted to do because those not doing said jobs decided they were politically incorrect, whereas questioning the wearing of a burka is beyond the pale, apparently.

    Likewise, bikini-wearing models (who were perfectly healthy) have been banned from Tube ads. It seems judging what women wear, and even banning it from advertising or axing their jobs altogether, is deemed fine if you're a puritan, but if you're condemning or questioning burkas rather than bikinis suddenly it's horrendous to tell women what they should wear.

    I have never suggested that women wearing bikini's etc in advertising is wrong. Why are you assuming that I would?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 486
    To me the next couple of months are going to be interesting as to what Boris does next with his columns. We have been through a period of having a "managerial" class of politicians governing. For the coalition this was forced, they had no choice but to reduce the deficit, but it did mean that there was no vision for the future thing about Cameronism.
    Same with May, strong and stable was the message, no belief system their either.
    We are now entering a phase with the Govt finances being such that positive spending choices can be made. Hence the politicians have a choice and can start to express their beliefs about how they want to improve society.
    If we see Boris clearly articulate over the next couple of months what Borisism means for the future then I see a challenge around the time of the October EU summit.
    The other contenders have to do the same if they want to be taken seriously, what is Huntism, what is Javidism. It will not be enough to say again "I am the safe candidate."
    This could be very healthy for the Tory party. Get some ideas flowing again.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,597
    MaxPB said:

    Boris has managed to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat on this. I think the public are broadly supportive of his comments and the huge over reaction from usual suspects as well as whatever idiotic Met investigation is going to help him win supporters. Boris said nothing unreasonable.

    Source?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,089
    Sean_F said:


    It certainly seems odd to view the burka as liberating, and appearing in a bikini as demeaning.

    It's also odd to assume those wearing the burka or niqab are acting under duress while those wearing a bikini are happy to do so. We assume large numbers of Muslim women are being forced to wear the niqab under duress - we don't know.

    I have a weak perception based on the anecdotal evidence of my own eyes that isn't the case. The niqab doesn't stop people laughing, smiling or talking. I do accept that when women are with men there is far more restraint but when women are together they seem as happy as any other group of women.

    What about men forced to wear suits and ties in the heat ? Isn't that degrading or demeaning to be told this is how you have to dress for eight hours per day? I'm fortunate but coming back into Waterloo and seeing the poor sweat-stained slobs trying to maintain a shred of decorum is just pitiful.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,611
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. 1961, it's ironic that women have lost jobs (F1 grid girls, darts girls etc) they wanted to do because those not doing said jobs decided they were politically incorrect, whereas questioning the wearing of a burka is beyond the pale, apparently.

    Likewise, bikini-wearing models (who were perfectly healthy) have been banned from Tube ads. It seems judging what women wear, and even banning it from advertising or axing their jobs altogether, is deemed fine if you're a puritan, but if you're condemning or questioning burkas rather than bikinis suddenly it's horrendous to tell women what they should wear.

    It certainly seems odd to view the burka as liberating, and appearing in a bikini as demeaning.
    While I agree with the thrust of what you say, a lot of people (men and women) feel a lot of pressure to get beach body ready. Bikinis aren't necessarily all that liberating.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,741
    I think Hunt is the most important figure in the Cabinet now, and May's main ally.

    I'd love to know what he and May discussed in that long meeting that led to her earlier reshuffle being aborted, but I suspect Brexit strategy was a large part of it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,451

    MaxPB said:

    Boris has managed to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat on this. I think the public are broadly supportive of his comments and the huge over reaction from usual suspects as well as whatever idiotic Met investigation is going to help him win supporters. Boris said nothing unreasonable.

    Source?
    I said "I think" for a reason. Hopefully we get something from YouGov on it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,470
    Tommy de Pfeffel Robinson.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,824
    MaxPB said:

    Boris has managed to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat on this. I think the public are broadly supportive of his comments and the huge over reaction from usual suspects as well as whatever idiotic Met investigation is going to help him win supporters. Boris said nothing unreasonable.

    What Boris has done is show he is vulnerable to the same sort of shellacking Corbyn and Labour get over antisemitism. Come the leadership contest, every rival candidate will be reminding every backbench MP -- who are the only voters that count -- about Boris's back catalogue. Punters who think a leaver is guaranteed a place in the final two (spoiler: there are no such guarantees) should take a second look at Michael Gove (spoiler: who also has no chance).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,956
    edited August 9
    Totally off topic, but I see that Google Maps is no longer a flat Earth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711
    What Yougov has shown is only Boris does better of the viable alternatives to May against Corbyn than May does and ConHome also shows the largest number of Tory members now back Boris to succeed May.

    So May backers can effectively say it is either me or Boris in the words of Thatcher 'TINA - There is no Alternative'
This discussion has been closed.