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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds that just half of those who voted LAB at GE2017 c

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited August 10 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds that just half of those who voted LAB at GE2017 choose Corbyn as “Best PM”

The detailed data from the latest YouGov Times poll shows that when asked just 50% those sampled who voted Labour at the last election chose Corbyn in response to who would make the Best PM.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 26,078
    First, unlike Labour under Corbyn.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,179
    Corbyn is looking like a Christmas balloon on twelfth night - slowly deflating.....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 28,058
    LibDems 4 Theresa :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,486
    Hold on Ihave talks collapsed for House of Fraser or is Sports Direct about to buy it ?

    Which is it ? Bloomberg or the BBC guilty of fake news ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 40,453
    Pulpstar said:

    Hold on Ihave talks collapsed for House of Fraser or is Sports Direct about to buy it ?

    Which is it ? Bloomberg or the BBC guilty of fake news ?

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,038
    Surely even the Cult must be beginning to realise that Corbyn's not cutting the electoral mustard?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,744
    Solid, but not spectacular GDP figures. I think we will see another 0.2% worth of upwards revisions to the final figures in a few months.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 22,088

    Surely even the Cult must be beginning to realise that Corbyn's not cutting the electoral mustard?

    Whilst the Corbynites see Labour as being for the many not the few, they see Jeremy Corbyn himself as being caviar to the general.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,744

    Surely even the Cult must be beginning to realise that Corbyn's not cutting the electoral mustard?

    It's all a Jewish conspiracy from Jew owned YouGov. The Rothschilds must have bought in recently as well.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 22,088
    On the economy, the following seems fair:

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,251

    Surely even the Cult must be beginning to realise that Corbyn's not cutting the electoral mustard?

    They'll just point to the polls from March 2017 and carry on.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,097
    I thought manufacturing was supposed to be the sector best placed to take advantage of the plummeting pound?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 40,453
    IanB2 said:

    I thought manufacturing was supposed to be the sector best placed to take advantage of the plummeting pound?

    Only if they don't import any raw materials.

    Oh...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,706
    Pulpstar said:

    Hold on Ihave talks collapsed for House of Fraser or is Sports Direct about to buy it ?

    Which is it ? Bloomberg or the BBC guilty of fake news ?

    Sports Direct buying 'some parts of HoF' according to BBC bulletin just now.
  • BromBrom Posts: 1,097
    Love the fact that our 2nd quarter GDP is twice as good as France. If Britain's economy is supposedly in a bad place according to the FBPE lot then France must be on red alert.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,486
    edited August 10
    IanB2 said:

    I thought manufacturing was supposed to be the sector best placed to take advantage of the plummeting pound?

    My company does, as will other net exporters.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,744
    IanB2 said:

    I thought manufacturing was supposed to be the sector best placed to take advantage of the plummeting pound?

    It is and it isn't. On one side it allows UK based exporters to compete on price better with German exporters, on the other it massively increases input prices. The UK manufacturing sector probably imports around 60-65% of its materials from overseas which means that amount won't really benefit from a weaker currency. If anything services exports benefit the most from weaker currency (and that can be seen in the trade figures) as the cost base for services is almost all domestic, few to no dollars are spent creating a financial report, for example - Microsoft is paid in sterling, Tableau is paid in sterling, the employee is paid in sterling and the rent on the building is paid in sterling.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,744
    Brom said:

    Love the fact that our 2nd quarter GDP is twice as good as France. If Britain's economy is supposedly in a bad place according to the FBPE lot then France must be on red alert.

    Tbh, it is on red alert. I wouldn't be surprised to see France grow at under 1% this year. There aren't many signs that it's picking up there.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,706
    edited August 10
    More suppression of free speech news.



    Apparently this cove wanted all Muslims to be gassed and to be forcibly sterilised. That's what I call a belt'n'braces approach.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,744
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    I thought manufacturing was supposed to be the sector best placed to take advantage of the plummeting pound?

    My company does, as will other net exporters.
    That's the key, net exporter. Loads of manufacturing in the UK is a net importer of goods, especially from Europe. We're not at the stage where sterling is so weak that companies will begin to look for domestic suppliers and new companies will sprout up to substitute importation.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,655
    MaxPB said:

    Brom said:

    Love the fact that our 2nd quarter GDP is twice as good as France. If Britain's economy is supposedly in a bad place according to the FBPE lot then France must be on red alert.

    Tbh, it is on red alert. I wouldn't be surprised to see France grow at under 1% this year. There aren't many signs that it's picking up there.
    But the sun shines out of Macron's backside doesnt it ? I'm so confused.....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,283

    More suppression of free speech news.



    Apparently this cove wanted all Muslims to be gassed and to be forcibly sterilised. That's what I call a belt'n'braces approach.

    Any particular order?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,532
    Brom said:

    Love the fact that our 2nd quarter GDP is twice as good as France. If Britain's economy is supposedly in a bad place according to the FBPE lot then France must be on red alert.

    France's 1st quarter figure was 50% better than the UK's (0.3% versus 0.2%).

    Statistics - don't you love 'em. So much scope.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,534
    Mr. L, beat me to that punchline.

    In Bane of Souls, a character gets sentenced for a huge variety of crimes to several hundred lashes, over a century in prison, and to be hanged (twice), after which he enquires about the order of the punishments.

    Mr. Divvie, nobody's said incitement to murder should be legal.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 28,058

    Surely even the Cult must be beginning to realise that Corbyn's not cutting the electoral mustard?

    Whilst the Corbynites see Labour as being for the many not the few, they see Jeremy Corbyn himself as being caviar to the general.
    For the many, not the Jew?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 1,072
    IanB2 said:

    I thought manufacturing was supposed to be the sector best placed to take advantage of the plummeting pound?

    It's a quarter on quarter comparison, and until April the pound has been generally strengthening for 18 months - if you look at manufacturing over a more comparable timeline it is obviously up.

    Hopefully the more recent sterling weakness will make Q3 and 4 a bit better on the trade front.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,283

    Pulpstar said:

    Hold on Ihave talks collapsed for House of Fraser or is Sports Direct about to buy it ?

    Which is it ? Bloomberg or the BBC guilty of fake news ?

    Sports Direct buying 'some parts of HoF' according to BBC bulletin just now.
    They are basically dumping the liabilities of the long term leases on the administrators for the stores they don't want. It was the landlords who rejected the refinancing proposal because the were being asked to bear too much of the pain. I suspect they will be bearing even more now.

    Landlords just have to accept that the returns for this type of heritable property are going to be considerably lower going forward.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,486
    MaxPB said:

    Brom said:

    Love the fact that our 2nd quarter GDP is twice as good as France. If Britain's economy is supposedly in a bad place according to the FBPE lot then France must be on red alert.

    Tbh, it is on red alert. I wouldn't be surprised to see France grow at under 1% this year. There aren't many signs that it's picking up there.
    Hold on aren't both ourselves and France heading for ~ 1%ish thus far whilst the US ~ 4% ?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,997
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    I thought manufacturing was supposed to be the sector best placed to take advantage of the plummeting pound?

    My company does, as will other net exporters.
    That's the key, net exporter. Loads of manufacturing in the UK is a net importer of goods, especially from Europe. We're not at the stage where sterling is so weak that companies will begin to look for domestic suppliers and new companies will sprout up to substitute importation.
    @MaxPB

    Do you have any good numbers for the UK Trade Deficit trend?

    My impression is that it is lower by 30-50% since the referendum and the subsequent fall in the pound, but the numbers are slow to come through.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,706

    Mr. L, beat me to that punchline.

    In Bane of Souls, a character gets sentenced for a huge variety of crimes to several hundred lashes, over a century in prison, and to be hanged (twice), after which he enquires about the order of the punishments.

    Mr. Divvie, nobody's said incitement to murder should be legal.

    Nobody? I think you're being a little naive.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,006
    edited August 10
    MaxPB said:

    Solid, but not spectacular GDP figures. I think we will see another 0.2% worth of upwards revisions to the final figures in a few months.

    The UK is now growing faster than the Eurozone again... although I would (as always) be careful about extrapolating a single quarter's number.

    Here's a little bugbear of mine: the US gives annualised quarterly growth numbers. So, instead of 0.4%, they'd announce something between 1.4% and 1.8%. This gives a little bit more granularity, as 0.4% covers a fairly wide variety of outcomes. It also leads to stupid Twitter users creating charts that show UK 2Q growth as 0.4% while the US was 4.0%.

    And a little word of caution: the biggest positive in the numbers was a 0.9% construction number. Given rising UK residential inventory numbers, I fear this may turn south.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,283
    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,480
    edited August 10
    Happy GDP Day PB! :D
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,905
    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    People who chase monthly/quarterly stats are idiots and will shortly be proven wrong by random noise.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,283

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    People who chase monthly/quarterly stats are idiots and will shortly be proven wrong by random noise.
    It's not hard to see I can get paid by the word is it? Very succinctly put.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,283
    Beer sales had to be enhanced by the "throw it all up in the air when there's a goal" phenomenon. Weird.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,773

    Niche.

    Not bad - able to laugh now that fatty is no longer a shareholder.

    In other football related jokes..


  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,444
    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,006
    MaxPB said:

    Brom said:

    Love the fact that our 2nd quarter GDP is twice as good as France. If Britain's economy is supposedly in a bad place according to the FBPE lot then France must be on red alert.

    Tbh, it is on red alert. I wouldn't be surprised to see France grow at under 1% this year. There aren't many signs that it's picking up there.
    I'm a bit more optimistic than you. The private sector in France is growing quite well, it's just there is a major squeeze on public sector enterprises.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,283
    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Depends how far away it is. If it doesn't come till 2021 or 2022 that will be a harder sell. But this has already been an above average period of continuous growth, albeit pretty modest growth, so it is possible. Like Max I am somewhat concerned about Europe. It is responding very badly to the tapering off of QE by the ECB. Even post Brexit they will be a major customer and demand may well fall.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,486
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Brom said:

    Love the fact that our 2nd quarter GDP is twice as good as France. If Britain's economy is supposedly in a bad place according to the FBPE lot then France must be on red alert.

    Tbh, it is on red alert. I wouldn't be surprised to see France grow at under 1% this year. There aren't many signs that it's picking up there.
    I'm a bit more optimistic than you. The private sector in France is growing quite well, it's just there is a major squeeze on public sector enterprises.
    Which one is Airbus ?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,444
    DavidL said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Depends how far away it is. If it doesn't come till 2021 or 2022 that will be a harder sell. But this has already been an above average period of continuous growth, albeit pretty modest growth, so it is possible. Like Max I am somewhat concerned about Europe. It is responding very badly to the tapering off of QE by the ECB. Even post Brexit they will be a major customer and demand may well fall.
    One of the mid-term worries from the IMF Eurozone report (which I've quoted before in terms of their assessment of Brexit impacts on European economies), is that they were forecasting very sluggish growth ( ~1.4%) for the EZ for much of the early '20s. That wouldn't be much help.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,006
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Brom said:

    Love the fact that our 2nd quarter GDP is twice as good as France. If Britain's economy is supposedly in a bad place according to the FBPE lot then France must be on red alert.

    Tbh, it is on red alert. I wouldn't be surprised to see France grow at under 1% this year. There aren't many signs that it's picking up there.
    Hold on aren't both ourselves and France heading for ~ 1%ish thus far whilst the US ~ 4% ?
    The US did (annualised) 2% in 1Q and 4% in 2Q. So, c. 3% for 1H. To get to 4% for the year, they'd need to annualise 5% in the second half, which seems implausible.

    The US is currently benefiting from an extremely expansionary Trump budget. If we cut taxes and increased spending, our GDP growth would grow more too. But the trade off is that we'd have a much larger deficit. (The US deficit is increasing, while ours is shrinking nicely.)
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    I simply do not believe anything the ONS comes up with. Construction in the UK is currently running at about the maximum it can. There is so much work around it is extraordinairy and you simply cannot get skilled labour. The latest hourly rate for Agency electricians in Hampshire is £25 per hour, that is double the rate than it was in 2010, a 100% increase in 8 years. None of this real world stuff is ever reflected in these figures
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,486
    DavidL said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Depends how far away it is. If it doesn't come till 2021 or 2022 that will be a harder sell. But this has already been an above average period of continuous growth, albeit pretty modest growth, so it is possible. Like Max I am somewhat concerned about Europe. It is responding very badly to the tapering off of QE by the ECB. Even post Brexit they will be a major customer and demand may well fall.
    If they're doing so badly, why is sterling still falling ? I mean long term this isn't at all bad for me and my job - but I've got a holiday in France coming up :D
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 22,088
    currystar said:

    I simply do not believe anything the ONS comes up with. Construction in the UK is currently running at about the maximum it can. There is so much work around it is extraordinairy and you simply cannot get skilled labour. The latest hourly rate for Agency electricians in Hampshire is £25 per hour, that is double the rate than it was in 2010, a 100% increase in 8 years. None of this real world stuff is ever reflected in these figures

    On the day when another well-known company has gone bust, can I suggest to you that the economy is behaving differently in different areas? I see no reason to treat the ONS's figures with more than the usual caution.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,006
    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Depends how far away it is. If it doesn't come till 2021 or 2022 that will be a harder sell. But this has already been an above average period of continuous growth, albeit pretty modest growth, so it is possible. Like Max I am somewhat concerned about Europe. It is responding very badly to the tapering off of QE by the ECB. Even post Brexit they will be a major customer and demand may well fall.
    One of the mid-term worries from the IMF Eurozone report (which I've quoted before in terms of their assessment of Brexit impacts on European economies), is that they were forecasting very sluggish growth ( ~1.4%) for the EZ for much of the early '20s. That wouldn't be much help.
    Demographics means that the UK and the Eurozone are following the Japan path to some extent, whether we like it or not. A rising number of retirees being supported by a diminishing number of working age people is going to result in slow productivity growth, and there's not a lot we can do about it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,486
    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Depends how far away it is. If it doesn't come till 2021 or 2022 that will be a harder sell. But this has already been an above average period of continuous growth, albeit pretty modest growth, so it is possible. Like Max I am somewhat concerned about Europe. It is responding very badly to the tapering off of QE by the ECB. Even post Brexit they will be a major customer and demand may well fall.
    One of the mid-term worries from the IMF Eurozone report (which I've quoted before in terms of their assessment of Brexit impacts on European economies), is that they were forecasting very sluggish growth ( ~1.4%) for the EZ for much of the early '20s. That wouldn't be much help.
    Demographics means that the UK and the Eurozone are following the Japan path to some extent, whether we like it or not. A rising number of retirees being supported by a diminishing number of working age people is going to result in slow productivity growth, and there's not a lot we can do about it.
    Has the secret of eternal youth been discovered in the States ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,096
    Quack quack!
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 22,088
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Depends how far away it is. If it doesn't come till 2021 or 2022 that will be a harder sell. But this has already been an above average period of continuous growth, albeit pretty modest growth, so it is possible. Like Max I am somewhat concerned about Europe. It is responding very badly to the tapering off of QE by the ECB. Even post Brexit they will be a major customer and demand may well fall.
    One of the mid-term worries from the IMF Eurozone report (which I've quoted before in terms of their assessment of Brexit impacts on European economies), is that they were forecasting very sluggish growth ( ~1.4%) for the EZ for much of the early '20s. That wouldn't be much help.
    Demographics means that the UK and the Eurozone are following the Japan path to some extent, whether we like it or not. A rising number of retirees being supported by a diminishing number of working age people is going to result in slow productivity growth, and there's not a lot we can do about it.
    Has the secret of eternal youth been discovered in the States ?
    If ageing continues and the old people continue to hate having immigrants around, people will just have to keep working longer. It's already happening in practice.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,251
    Congratulations to India on a superb start.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,179
    IanB2 said:

    I thought manufacturing was supposed to be the sector best placed to take advantage of the plummeting pound?

    A great little graph of how Sterling's depreciation has 'boosted' the trade balance. It's almost like how in an interconnected world of high value added production and supply chains, price isn't everything.

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,038
    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    Also I note that the strange rebirth of Tory Scotland seems not to be a blip.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    currystar said:

    I simply do not believe anything the ONS comes up with. Construction in the UK is currently running at about the maximum it can. There is so much work around it is extraordinairy and you simply cannot get skilled labour. The latest hourly rate for Agency electricians in Hampshire is £25 per hour, that is double the rate than it was in 2010, a 100% increase in 8 years. None of this real world stuff is ever reflected in these figures

    On the day when another well-known company has gone bust, can I suggest to you that the economy is behaving differently in different areas? I see no reason to treat the ONS's figures with more than the usual caution.
    House of Fraser failed due to their outdated business model, it was nothing to do with the health of the economy
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 22,088
    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    I simply do not believe anything the ONS comes up with. Construction in the UK is currently running at about the maximum it can. There is so much work around it is extraordinairy and you simply cannot get skilled labour. The latest hourly rate for Agency electricians in Hampshire is £25 per hour, that is double the rate than it was in 2010, a 100% increase in 8 years. None of this real world stuff is ever reflected in these figures

    On the day when another well-known company has gone bust, can I suggest to you that the economy is behaving differently in different areas? I see no reason to treat the ONS's figures with more than the usual caution.
    House of Fraser failed due to their outdated business model, it was nothing to do with the health of the economy
    And ToysRUS, and Maplins, and Gaucho, and Poundworld, and...

    Different sectors are being affected differently.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,096
    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    I simply do not believe anything the ONS comes up with. Construction in the UK is currently running at about the maximum it can. There is so much work around it is extraordinairy and you simply cannot get skilled labour. The latest hourly rate for Agency electricians in Hampshire is £25 per hour, that is double the rate than it was in 2010, a 100% increase in 8 years. None of this real world stuff is ever reflected in these figures

    On the day when another well-known company has gone bust, can I suggest to you that the economy is behaving differently in different areas? I see no reason to treat the ONS's figures with more than the usual caution.
    House of Fraser failed due to their outdated business model, it was nothing to do with the health of the economy
    Any ideas what Sports Direct have actually paid £90m for?

    Do they own any stores, have that much inventory lying around, or are we going to see some absolutely massive sports shops opening up in town centres?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,038


    And ToysRUS, and Maplins, and Gaucho, and Poundworld, and...

    Different sectors are being affected differently.

    I think the failed business model is (1) be in retail and (2) not be Amazon
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,931
    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    I simply do not believe anything the ONS comes up with. Construction in the UK is currently running at about the maximum it can. There is so much work around it is extraordinairy and you simply cannot get skilled labour. The latest hourly rate for Agency electricians in Hampshire is £25 per hour, that is double the rate than it was in 2010, a 100% increase in 8 years. None of this real world stuff is ever reflected in these figures

    On the day when another well-known company has gone bust, can I suggest to you that the economy is behaving differently in different areas? I see no reason to treat the ONS's figures with more than the usual caution.
    House of Fraser failed due to their outdated business model, it was nothing to do with the health of the economy
    They died of not being Amazon. They probably paid more tax than Amazon.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,179
    edited August 10
    rcs1000 said:


    The UK is now growing faster than the Eurozone again...

    Added impetus from Brussels for their "punishment Brexit..."

    EDIT: and added impetus for a no deal Brexit this end?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,096
    edited August 10
    Guido’s been taking barcharting lessons from the Lib Dems... :D
    image
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,038
    Ishmael_Z said:


    They died of not being Amazon. They probably paid more tax than Amazon.

    Bezos has always been a master of profit-minimisation. It's swings and roundabouts, of course. The plus side is you pay no tax, and you're not wasting capital you could be using to expand your logistics network to put another traditional retailer out of business.

    On the downside, you have to constantly keep investors happy by other means.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,486
    Sandpit said:

    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    I simply do not believe anything the ONS comes up with. Construction in the UK is currently running at about the maximum it can. There is so much work around it is extraordinairy and you simply cannot get skilled labour. The latest hourly rate for Agency electricians in Hampshire is £25 per hour, that is double the rate than it was in 2010, a 100% increase in 8 years. None of this real world stuff is ever reflected in these figures

    On the day when another well-known company has gone bust, can I suggest to you that the economy is behaving differently in different areas? I see no reason to treat the ONS's figures with more than the usual caution.
    House of Fraser failed due to their outdated business model, it was nothing to do with the health of the economy
    Any ideas what Sports Direct have actually paid £90m for?

    Do they own any stores, have that much inventory lying around, or are we going to see some absolutely massive sports shops opening up in town centres?
    Surely they'll have chosen the stores they want to buy, and just buy those ?
    Seems to be more Adidas and Nike in their stores than ever - couldn't find the Mizuno trainer (Or any Mizuno at all) that I was looking for in either their Meadowhall or Drakehouse outlets.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 19,651
    India - 10 for 2
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,283
    Oh Jimmy Jimmy
    Jimmy Jimmy Jimmy Anderson.

    That is all.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 19,651
    Sandpit said:

    Guido’s been taking barcharting lessons from the Lib Dems... :D
    image

    That is so funny
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 19,651
    Rain stop play
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,744
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Depends how far away it is. If it doesn't come till 2021 or 2022 that will be a harder sell. But this has already been an above average period of continuous growth, albeit pretty modest growth, so it is possible. Like Max I am somewhat concerned about Europe. It is responding very badly to the tapering off of QE by the ECB. Even post Brexit they will be a major customer and demand may well fall.
    One of the mid-term worries from the IMF Eurozone report (which I've quoted before in terms of their assessment of Brexit impacts on European economies), is that they were forecasting very sluggish growth ( ~1.4%) for the EZ for much of the early '20s. That wouldn't be much help.
    Demographics means that the UK and the Eurozone are following the Japan path to some extent, whether we like it or not. A rising number of retirees being supported by a diminishing number of working age people is going to result in slow productivity growth, and there's not a lot we can do about it.
    Has the secret of eternal youth been discovered in the States ?
    Yes, it's called Mexico.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,486
    It is truly the summer of two syllable first names followed by three syllable second names being turned into a 5 syllable then 9 syllable two line poem.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,179
    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Or the "Corbyn recession".....

    Make that the "Corbyn slump".
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,744
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Brom said:

    Love the fact that our 2nd quarter GDP is twice as good as France. If Britain's economy is supposedly in a bad place according to the FBPE lot then France must be on red alert.

    Tbh, it is on red alert. I wouldn't be surprised to see France grow at under 1% this year. There aren't many signs that it's picking up there.
    I'm a bit more optimistic than you. The private sector in France is growing quite well, it's just there is a major squeeze on public sector enterprises.
    I've never done badly by being bearish on the French economy. It always finds a way to disappoint.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,655
    Just a working theory that I'm running through my head on the whole hiqab thing. I'm not sure this arguement works, so bear with me, it's a work in progress

    If it is ladies choice to wear these items of clothing, then they should be treated as any other item of clothing should be, so it's just like making fun of shellsuits or puffball dresses in the past. in which case it's fine to make fun of it as a fashion statement.

    On the other hand if it's not, then it's difficult to justfy it's a womens choice, as it becomes a requirement or an expectation either of religion, or culture or some mix of the two. In which case it would be wrong to mock it, but perfect ok to question it on the basis of inclusivness and if its compatible with a western liberal society.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,744
    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    I thought manufacturing was supposed to be the sector best placed to take advantage of the plummeting pound?

    My company does, as will other net exporters.
    That's the key, net exporter. Loads of manufacturing in the UK is a net importer of goods, especially from Europe. We're not at the stage where sterling is so weak that companies will begin to look for domestic suppliers and new companies will sprout up to substitute importation.
    @MaxPB

    Do you have any good numbers for the UK Trade Deficit trend?

    My impression is that it is lower by 30-50% since the referendum and the subsequent fall in the pound, but the numbers are slow to come through.
    Yes, but it will have to be after the weekend, on the way to Cornwall for a wedding. Tux at the ready.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    grabcocque Posts: 983
    11:09AM
    scotslass said:
    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.


    Also I note that the strange rebirth of Tory Scotland seems not to be a blip.


    As far as I can see the last full YouGov Scottish poll was at the start of June this year and was

    SNP 40,Tory 27,Lab 23,Lib 7,Green 2 and UKIP 1. Suggests Labour and Liberals suffering at the hands of the SNP, Tories and Greens. UKIP from 1 to nil.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,283
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Depends how far away it is. If it doesn't come till 2021 or 2022 that will be a harder sell. But this has already been an above average period of continuous growth, albeit pretty modest growth, so it is possible. Like Max I am somewhat concerned about Europe. It is responding very badly to the tapering off of QE by the ECB. Even post Brexit they will be a major customer and demand may well fall.
    If they're doing so badly, why is sterling still falling ? I mean long term this isn't at all bad for me and my job - but I've got a holiday in France coming up :D
    The ECB is tightening policy by tapering off QE which is making the Euro look more attractive. There is some uncertainty about a no deal Brexit and sentiment isn't great as a result. I think that the fall of Sterling is getting a little overdone but whether that is corrected in time for your holiday is hard to predict.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,179
    DavidL said:

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that.

    And Osborne paid the price for so using them.

    Reduced to being in management of a downward-spiralling paper. If only he had a columnist whose writing could make the news for a week, eh?

  • Sandpit said:

    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    I simply do not believe anything the ONS comes up with. Construction in the UK is currently running at about the maximum it can. There is so much work around it is extraordinairy and you simply cannot get skilled labour. The latest hourly rate for Agency electricians in Hampshire is £25 per hour, that is double the rate than it was in 2010, a 100% increase in 8 years. None of this real world stuff is ever reflected in these figures

    On the day when another well-known company has gone bust, can I suggest to you that the economy is behaving differently in different areas? I see no reason to treat the ONS's figures with more than the usual caution.
    House of Fraser failed due to their outdated business model, it was nothing to do with the health of the economy
    Any ideas what Sports Direct have actually paid £90m for?

    Do they own any stores, have that much inventory lying around, or are we going to see some absolutely massive sports shops opening up in town centres?
    Oxford St is a leased building, and so is the formers Jenners in Edinburgh (leasing from a company owned by the family who sold Jenners). Looking forward to the branch of Sports Direct opening right next to The Ivy Edinburgh.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,901
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    I simply do not believe anything the ONS comes up with. Construction in the UK is currently running at about the maximum it can. There is so much work around it is extraordinairy and you simply cannot get skilled labour. The latest hourly rate for Agency electricians in Hampshire is £25 per hour, that is double the rate than it was in 2010, a 100% increase in 8 years. None of this real world stuff is ever reflected in these figures

    On the day when another well-known company has gone bust, can I suggest to you that the economy is behaving differently in different areas? I see no reason to treat the ONS's figures with more than the usual caution.
    House of Fraser failed due to their outdated business model, it was nothing to do with the health of the economy
    Any ideas what Sports Direct have actually paid £90m for?

    Do they own any stores, have that much inventory lying around, or are we going to see some absolutely massive sports shops opening up in town centres?
    Surely they'll have chosen the stores they want to buy, and just buy those ?
    Seems to be more Adidas and Nike in their stores than ever - couldn't find the Mizuno trainer (Or any Mizuno at all) that I was looking for in either their Meadowhall or Drakehouse outlets.
    I have never grasped why people care tuppence about trainer brands. They are not proper shoes, and are all pretty much the same. I have a friend who collects trainers. I do not lie when I say he has more pairs than his wife own shoes. I find that ridiculous.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,179
    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    I thought manufacturing was supposed to be the sector best placed to take advantage of the plummeting pound?

    My company does, as will other net exporters.
    That's the key, net exporter. Loads of manufacturing in the UK is a net importer of goods, especially from Europe. We're not at the stage where sterling is so weak that companies will begin to look for domestic suppliers and new companies will sprout up to substitute importation.
    @MaxPB

    Do you have any good numbers for the UK Trade Deficit trend?

    My impression is that it is lower by 30-50% since the referendum and the subsequent fall in the pound, but the numbers are slow to come through.
    Yes, but it will have to be after the weekend, on the way to Cornwall for a wedding. Tux at the ready.
    A tux?

    In CORNWALL?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,681

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Or the "Corbyn recession".....

    Make that the "Corbyn slump".
    We could even combine the two...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,744

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    I thought manufacturing was supposed to be the sector best placed to take advantage of the plummeting pound?

    My company does, as will other net exporters.
    That's the key, net exporter. Loads of manufacturing in the UK is a net importer of goods, especially from Europe. We're not at the stage where sterling is so weak that companies will begin to look for domestic suppliers and new companies will sprout up to substitute importation.
    @MaxPB

    Do you have any good numbers for the UK Trade Deficit trend?

    My impression is that it is lower by 30-50% since the referendum and the subsequent fall in the pound, but the numbers are slow to come through.
    Yes, but it will have to be after the weekend, on the way to Cornwall for a wedding. Tux at the ready.
    A tux?

    In CORNWALL?
    Yes, the evening reception is a black tie event. Believe me, no one is happy about it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,486
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    I simply do not believe anything the ONS comes up with. Construction in the UK is currently running at about the maximum it can. There is so much work around it is extraordinairy and you simply cannot get skilled labour. The latest hourly rate for Agency electricians in Hampshire is £25 per hour, that is double the rate than it was in 2010, a 100% increase in 8 years. None of this real world stuff is ever reflected in these figures

    On the day when another well-known company has gone bust, can I suggest to you that the economy is behaving differently in different areas? I see no reason to treat the ONS's figures with more than the usual caution.
    House of Fraser failed due to their outdated business model, it was nothing to do with the health of the economy
    Any ideas what Sports Direct have actually paid £90m for?

    Do they own any stores, have that much inventory lying around, or are we going to see some absolutely massive sports shops opening up in town centres?
    Surely they'll have chosen the stores they want to buy, and just buy those ?
    Seems to be more Adidas and Nike in their stores than ever - couldn't find the Mizuno trainer (Or any Mizuno at all) that I was looking for in either their Meadowhall or Drakehouse outlets.
    I have never grasped why people care tuppence about trainer brands. They are not proper shoes, and are all pretty much the same. I have a friend who collects trainers. I do not lie when I say he has more pairs than his wife own shoes. I find that ridiculous.
    I just like to stick with the same shoe to be honest. They don't instantly fall apart and they're correct for my pronation. I did the Sheffield Half back in 2013 in Mizuno Wave Riders, but the sole is too thin to run on those now so I need new ones.
    I own two pairs currently, but they're both too old for running in.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,757
    Corbyn wants to leave the EU. Seumas Milne wants to leave the EU. John McDonnell wants to leave the EU.

    These people don’t care what other Labour MPs think. They will never back a second referendum.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,444
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    I simply do not believe anything the ONS comes up with. Construction in the UK is currently running at about the maximum it can. There is so much work around it is extraordinairy and you simply cannot get skilled labour. The latest hourly rate for Agency electricians in Hampshire is £25 per hour, that is double the rate than it was in 2010, a 100% increase in 8 years. None of this real world stuff is ever reflected in these figures

    On the day when another well-known company has gone bust, can I suggest to you that the economy is behaving differently in different areas? I see no reason to treat the ONS's figures with more than the usual caution.
    House of Fraser failed due to their outdated business model, it was nothing to do with the health of the economy
    Any ideas what Sports Direct have actually paid £90m for?

    Do they own any stores, have that much inventory lying around, or are we going to see some absolutely massive sports shops opening up in town centres?
    Surely they'll have chosen the stores they want to buy, and just buy those ?
    Seems to be more Adidas and Nike in their stores than ever - couldn't find the Mizuno trainer (Or any Mizuno at all) that I was looking for in either their Meadowhall or Drakehouse outlets.
    I have never grasped why people care tuppence about trainer brands. They are not proper shoes, and are all pretty much the same. I have a friend who collects trainers. I do not lie when I say he has more pairs than his wife own shoes. I find that ridiculous.
    One of the advantages of being in my generation is that we're less prone to the lure of brand names, particularly when we're talking about plimsolls.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,478
    rcs1000 said:


    Demographics means that the UK and the Eurozone are following the Japan path to some extent, whether we like it or not. A rising number of retirees being supported by a diminishing number of working age people is going to result in slow productivity growth, and there's not a lot we can do about it.

    Aren't there any more young people from other countries who want to work there?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,532
    edited August 10
    scotslass said:

    grabcocque Posts: 983
    11:09AM
    scotslass said:
    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.


    Also I note that the strange rebirth of Tory Scotland seems not to be a blip.


    As far as I can see the last full YouGov Scottish poll was at the start of June this year and was

    SNP 40,Tory 27,Lab 23,Lib 7,Green 2 and UKIP 1. Suggests Labour and Liberals suffering at the hands of the SNP, Tories and Greens. UKIP from 1 to nil.

    The EMA for Scottish polls is Con 26.4%, Lab 26.1%, LD 6.7%, SNP 38.5%.

    It gives the SNP 40 seats, gaining four from Lab and one from Con.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,096
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    I thought manufacturing was supposed to be the sector best placed to take advantage of the plummeting pound?

    My company does, as will other net exporters.
    That's the key, net exporter. Loads of manufacturing in the UK is a net importer of goods, especially from Europe. We're not at the stage where sterling is so weak that companies will begin to look for domestic suppliers and new companies will sprout up to substitute importation.
    @MaxPB

    Do you have any good numbers for the UK Trade Deficit trend?

    My impression is that it is lower by 30-50% since the referendum and the subsequent fall in the pound, but the numbers are slow to come through.
    Yes, but it will have to be after the weekend, on the way to Cornwall for a wedding. Tux at the ready.
    A tux?

    In CORNWALL?
    Yes, the evening reception is a black tie event. Believe me, no one is happy about it.
    Could be worse, it might have been a daytime event in morning dress...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,016

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    Also I note that the strange rebirth of Tory Scotland seems not to be a blip.
    Just the right wing labour people who will not go to SNP, they have nowhere else to go. It is likely to drop though as some will not be able to hold their nose and vote Tory.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,283
    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    I simply do not believe anything the ONS comes up with. Construction in the UK is currently running at about the maximum it can. There is so much work around it is extraordinairy and you simply cannot get skilled labour. The latest hourly rate for Agency electricians in Hampshire is £25 per hour, that is double the rate than it was in 2010, a 100% increase in 8 years. None of this real world stuff is ever reflected in these figures

    On the day when another well-known company has gone bust, can I suggest to you that the economy is behaving differently in different areas? I see no reason to treat the ONS's figures with more than the usual caution.
    House of Fraser failed due to their outdated business model, it was nothing to do with the health of the economy
    Any ideas what Sports Direct have actually paid £90m for?

    Do they own any stores, have that much inventory lying around, or are we going to see some absolutely massive sports shops opening up in town centres?
    Surely they'll have chosen the stores they want to buy, and just buy those ?
    Seems to be more Adidas and Nike in their stores than ever - couldn't find the Mizuno trainer (Or any Mizuno at all) that I was looking for in either their Meadowhall or Drakehouse outlets.
    I have never grasped why people care tuppence about trainer brands. They are not proper shoes, and are all pretty much the same. I have a friend who collects trainers. I do not lie when I say he has more pairs than his wife own shoes. I find that ridiculous.
    I just like to stick with the same shoe to be honest. They don't instantly fall apart and they're correct for my pronation. I did the Sheffield Half back in 2013 in Mizuno Wave Riders, but the sole is too thin to run on those now so I need new ones.
    I own two pairs currently, but they're both too old for running in.
    "pronation". Good word I haven't come across before.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,179
    Foxy said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Or the "Corbyn recession".....

    Make that the "Corbyn slump".
    We could even combine the two...
    London home-owners in negative equity from Corbyn's Brexit Slump - that would be the icing on the cake for most provincial Leavers.....
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,730
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Brom said:

    Love the fact that our 2nd quarter GDP is twice as good as France. If Britain's economy is supposedly in a bad place according to the FBPE lot then France must be on red alert.

    Tbh, it is on red alert. I wouldn't be surprised to see France grow at under 1% this year. There aren't many signs that it's picking up there.
    Hold on aren't both ourselves and France heading for ~ 1%ish thus far whilst the US ~ 4% ?
    The US did (annualised) 2% in 1Q and 4% in 2Q. So, c. 3% for 1H. To get to 4% for the year, they'd need to annualise 5% in the second half, which seems implausible.

    The US is currently benefiting from an extremely expansionary Trump budget. If we cut taxes and increased spending, our GDP growth would grow more too. But the trade off is that we'd have a much larger deficit. (The US deficit is increasing, while ours is shrinking nicely.)
    Reagan showed that deficits don't matter -- Dick Cheney. That may have been a political judgement as much as an economic one.
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,232
    @Cyclefree One of the many advantages of my freelance lifestyle is that I can visit more bits of the country because I have time, rather than rush everywhere. Next week, I’m planning to visit somewhere in Derbyshire en route to the Lakes. Kedleston Hall maybe? Any recommendations welcome!

    Don't bother with Kedleston. Calke Abbey is materially more interesting and very non-NT in the way in which it has been maintained (ie it has not been polished and sterilised to within an inch of its life). The gardens are not over-formal either.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,901
    edited August 10

    Foxy said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Or the "Corbyn recession".....

    Make that the "Corbyn slump".
    We could even combine the two...
    London home-owners in negative equity from Corbyn's Brexit Slump - that would be the icing on the cake for most provincial Leavers.....
    What a charming post. You want to bring financial misery on millions of families. Now we know.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,534
    Ms. Anazina, ha, I share your bafflement at such devotion to buying trainers.
This discussion has been closed.